Election 2020

[Eric the Green]

(10-16-2020, 05:14 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(10-16-2020, 05:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Poll averages from fivethirtyeight Oct.164, 6 PM EDT
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

Oct 164?  I thought October seemed extra slow in passing this year, but I hadn't expected that way for Trump to extend his reign.  It makes Pope Gregory's XIII's theft of 11 days seem minor!  

Actually, to be more accurate, I should have said Oct.64, then it would show Nero as emperor, whom of course Trump is the reincarnation of

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN has Trump suggesting he will leave the country if Biden wins.  I don't think Biden would specifically point the Justice Department at Trump, but the pardon power doesn't include state crimes so finding a country without an extradition treaty with the US might be prudent.

Does Russia have such a treaty?  Think he would be considered a flight risk?  Can a state with a crime pending against a president prevent him from leaving the country during a lame duck period?  Do we really want him?  Let him go?

[pbrower2a]

(10-17-2020, 05:15 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN has Trump suggesting he will leave the country if Biden wins.  I don't think Biden would specifically point the Justice Department at Trump, but the pardon power doesn't include state crimes so finding a country without an extradition treaty with the US might be prudent.

Does Russia have such a treaty?  Think he would be considered a flight risk?  Can a state with a crime pending against a president prevent him from leaving the country during a lame duck period?  Do we really want him?  Let him go?

Countries can extradite without a formal treaty. There are offenses so egregious, such as assassination of a head or chief of state, that an offender could reasonably expect to be extradited. 

Presidential, legislative, and diplomatic immunity, all of which exist for the convenience of States, end when the position ends. As an example,  Nazi war criminal Joachim von Ribbentrop could not escape consequences of brutal administration of occupied countries, arranging aggression that initiated illegal invasions, and persuading satellite regimes to deport Jews to extermination camps. Ribbentrop is about as extreme as one gets. 

Joe Biden said that the Justice Department will be independent of him, and that he will not interfere in any prosecutions. I would expect him to pardon himself for federal offenses, but he has no means of preventing prosecution by authorities of any State. He might be wise to flee the US, and if he gave any coded messages to people in on the Michigan plot...

[Eric the Green]

Poll averages from fivethirtyeight Oct.17, 11 PM EDT, edited Oct. 18, 12:30 PM, 10 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +10.6

Alaska Trump +4.8
Arizona Biden +3.8
Florida Biden +3.9
Georgia Biden +1.3
Indiana Trump +9.8
Iowa Biden +0.2
Kansas Trump +6.8
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.5
Michigan Biden +7.9
Minnesota Biden +9.1
Missouri Trump +6.2
Montana Trump +8.2
Nevada Biden +6.3
New Hampshire Biden +11.8
North Carolina Biden +3.2
Ohio Trump +0.4
Pennsylvania Biden +6.7
South Carolina Trump +7.3
Texas Trump +1.4
Wisconsin Biden +7.4

[pbrower2a]

Likelihood of a Biden win, each state and relevant district. 10/17/2020 (source: 538.com) Subtract from 100 for the Trump chance.



95 + saturation 8
85-94 saturation 6
75-84 saturation 5
63-75 saturation 4
51-62 saturation 2

v Biden more than 99% chance of winning
- Trump more than a 99% chance of winning

(blue for Trump, red for Biden)

tie (50-50) in white

Caveat: not all polling data is similar in age, and a lead of 8% at this stage is more crushing now than it was three months ago.

[David Horn]

(10-17-2020, 05:15 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN has Trump suggesting he will leave the country if Biden wins.  I don't think Biden would specifically point the Justice Department at Trump, but the pardon power doesn't include state crimes so finding a country without an extradition treaty with the US might be prudent.

Does Russia have such a treaty?  Think he would be considered a flight risk?  Can a state with a crime pending against a president prevent him from leaving the country during a lame duck period?  Do we really want him?  Let him go?

He has the entire range of TS-SCI analysis that could go with him.  That would make it treason.

[Eric the Green]

Poll averages from fivethirtyeight Oct. 19, 4:30 PM EDT, edit Oct.20, 2 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
Biden's national lead is strong and steady, but today it went slightly down, and a few key states are slipping a little bit.

National Biden +10.3

Alaska Trump +5
Arizona Biden +3.9
Florida Biden +3.4
Georgia Biden +0.9
Indiana Trump +10.1
Iowa Biden +0.3
Kansas Trump +6.5
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.3
Michigan Biden +7.8
Minnesota Biden +7.5
Missouri Trump +6
Montana Trump +8.1
Nevada Biden +6.3
New Hampshire Biden +11.6
North Carolina Biden +3.1
Ohio Trump +0.1
Pennsylvania Biden +6.4
South Carolina Trump +7.5
Texas Trump +1.3
Wisconsin Biden +7.2

[pbrower2a]

Somebody very important in this campaign is utterly unhinged:

Quote:TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) — An angry President Donald Trump came out swinging Monday against Dr. Anthony Fauci, the press and polls that show him trailing Democrat Joe Biden in key battleground states in a disjointed closing message two weeks out from Election Day.

On the third day of a western campaign swing, Trump was facing intense pressure to turn around his campaign, hoping for the type of last-minute surge that gave him a come-from-behind victory four years ago. But his inconsistent message, another rise in virus cases and his attacks on experts like Fauci could undermine his final efforts to appeal to voters outside his most loyal base.

“I’m not running scared,” Trump told reporters before taking off for Tucson, Arizona, for his fifth rally in three days. “I think I’m running angry. I’m running happy and I’m running very content ’cause I’ve done a great job.”

His aggressive travel comes as Trump plays defense in states he won four years ago, though the president insisted he was confident as he executed a packed schedule despite the pandemic.

“We’re going to win,” he told campaign staff on a morning conference call from Las Vegas. He went on to acknowledge that he “wouldn’t have told you that maybe two or three weeks ago,” referring to the days when he was hospitalized with COVID-19. But he said he felt better now than at any point in 2016. “We’re in the best shape we’ve ever been,” he said.

Seeking to shore up the morale of his staff amid growing private concerns that he is running out of time to make up lost ground, Trump blasted his government’s own scientific experts as too negative, even as his handling of the pandemic that has killed nearly 220,000 Americans remains a central issue to voters.

“People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots,” Trump said of the government’s top infectious disease expert. “Every time he goes on television, there’s always a bomb. But there’s a bigger bomb if you fire him. But Fauci’s a disaster.”

At a rally in Prescott, Arizona, Trump assailed Biden for pledging to heed the advice of scientific experts, saying dismissively that his rival “wants to listen to Dr. Fauci.”

The doctor is both respected and popular, and Trump’s rejection of scientific advice on the pandemic has already drawn bipartisan condemnation.

At his rally, Trump also ramped up his attacks on the news media, singling out NBC’s Kristen Welker, the moderator of the next presidential debate, as well as CNN for aggressively covering a pandemic that is now infecting tens of thousands of Americans every day.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020...e9cabacc71

[Bob Butler 54]

Apparently, somebody was plotting against the mayor of Wichita as well.

Edit:  A CBS account of the incident.

[David Horn]

(10-19-2020, 09:48 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Apparently, somebody was plotting against the mayor of Wichita as well.

We need to be more honest about this, and just issue these fanatics their brown shirts and be done with it. 

[Eric the Green]

Poll averages from fivethirtyeight Oct. 21, 5 :30 AM EDT, edited 4 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +9.9

Alaska Trump +5.5
Arizona Biden +3.8
Florida Biden +3.6
Georgia Biden +1
Indiana Trump +10.4
Iowa Biden +1.1
Kansas Trump +9.5
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.2
Michigan Biden +8.1
Minnesota Biden +8
Missouri Trump +6.3
Montana Trump +8.1
Nevada Biden +6.5
New Hampshire Biden +11.5
North Carolina Biden +3.1
Ohio Trump +1
Pennsylvania Biden +6.2
South Carolina Trump +7.6
Texas Trump +1.0
Wisconsin Biden +6.3

270towin poll averages Oct.21

National Biden +6.8
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling
Alaska Trump +6
Arizona Biden +3.4
Florida Biden +2.6
Georgia Biden +1.2
Iowa Biden +1.3
Kansas Trump +8.5
Michigan Biden +6.8
Minnesota Biden +6.8
Missouri Trump +7
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +5.6
New Hampshire Biden +9.8
North Carolina Biden +2.5
Ohio Trump +0.2
Pennsylvania Biden +4.6
South Carolina Trump +7.8
Texas Trump +2.8
Virginia Biden +11
Wisconsin Biden +6

[Bob Butler 54]

Unfair! How come only the moderator gets to control the mute button?

[Isoko]

Not sure what to make of it but in the latest financial reports, they are showing the vote narrowing with the potentiality for another Trump victory. 

Also of interest is the Trafalgar Group which supposedly was the only poll to accurately get Trumps last win correct, some guy winning a seat in 2018 right and now they are saying Trump is on the course for a narrow win as well. 

Apparently, they are picking up the hidden Trump voters and in key States such as Michigan and Pensylvania, Trump is one point ahead of Biden. Also he is apparently in front when it comes to Georgia, Florida and Ohio. 

Now this is interesting. My wife thinks Trump screwed up too much with the corona virus and this is going to cost him with the independents. On the other hand, I think that Trump will easily win over those blue collar workers again, along with energising his base to get out and vote. 

On the other hand, you have a lot of people in America who just want things to return back to normal and will vote for Biden just to get Trump out of office. I think Trump has alienated a lot of moderates, the what I call "I just want to get on with my life", people.

This all said, I did have an interesting thought today. The reason people were pushed to vote for Trump the first time around was the economy. They wanted to send the Democrats a big message that they were not happy with the economy. 

Therefore the Dems have got to get serious about the economy and actually turning Americas fortunes around. Actually build a new economy that works for all. Right now, they don't seem to be making any noise about displacing neo liberalism and seem quite happy to continue on the same old path. Dems have got to have a big u turn otherwise these political upsets could keep happening down the road.

[Bob Butler 54]

One of the internet opinion pieces covering the election proposed that Trump is going to lose any given challenge to the election results.  There is apparently a legal doctrine that you cannot benefit from breaking the law.  Thus, for example, if you kill a witness, anything he said would be admitted as evidence, including heresy.  The killer would lose his right to confront his accuser and significant rights to throw out evidence.

Trump is clearly guilty of rigging the election.  Any benefit to Trump that involves a rigged unfair election runs into that principle.  The lawyer predicted any suit involving the impure election ought to be rejected out of hand.

The guy presenting this principle was fond of saying that judges were no dummies.  He did not imply that Trump was.

We will see if this holds true.

[Eric the Green]

(10-21-2020, 12:30 PM)Isoko Wrote: Not sure what to make of it but in the latest financial reports, they are showing the vote narrowing with the potentiality for another Trump victory. 

Also of interest is the Trafalgar Group which supposedly was the only poll to accurately get Trumps last win correct, some guy winning a seat in 2018 right and now they are saying Trump is on the course for a narrow win as well. 

Apparently, they are picking up the hidden Trump voters and in key States such as Michigan and Pensylvania, Trump is one point ahead of Biden. Also he is apparently in front when it comes to Georgia, Florida and Ohio. 

Now this is interesting. My wife thinks Trump screwed up too much with the corona virus and this is going to cost him with the independents. On the other hand, I think that Trump will easily win over those blue collar workers again, along with energising his base to get out and vote. 

On the other hand, you have a lot of people in America who just want things to return back to normal and will vote for Biden just to get Trump out of office. I think Trump has alienated a lot of moderates, the what I call "I just want to get on with my life", people.

This all said, I did have an interesting thought today. The reason people were pushed to vote for Trump the first time around was the economy. They wanted to send the Democrats a big message that they were not happy with the economy. 

Therefore the Dems have got to get serious about the economy and actually turning Americas fortunes around. Actually build a new economy that works for all. Right now, they don't seem to be making any noise about displacing neo liberalism and seem quite happy to continue on the same old path. Dems have got to have a big u turn otherwise these political upsets could keep happening down the road.

You got that last part right. I think if Biden comes out clearly against trickle-down economics, which his policies already imply that he will, he'll get some of those blue-collar votes back.

As for Trafalgar, a broken clock is right twice a day. It is definitely and deliberately a Republican poll, and a constant outlier. The averages from fivethirtyeight that I am posting is what to go by. Those are based on the most polls, not on "financial reports."

[Isoko]

Eric, 

I think personally with a Biden administration, we won't see actually any major changes. Biden in a sense wants to turn back the clock to what America was like before 2016. I think the mindset in the current Democratic climate is to get Biden elected and "pretend" the last four years never happened. Problem is, Trump has upset the apple cart too much for that to be feasible. 

The first problem is China. Whether or not he wants it, Biden is going to have to take a strong hand here as Trump has too badly damaged relations. Going back to the "you just make our clothes and we'll pretend nothing is happening with your human rights abuses" is pretty much gone. 

Second is Europe. Trump has badly damaged relations with Europe to the point that Europe is starting to drift further away from Washington. Trust in America is at an all time low. When Europe has a problem, it would rather talk to Moscow then Washington...

Third obviously I mentioned is economics. I'm not really seeing any major blue collar support for Biden as of yet. If he can succeed with trickle down economics then by all means, he can get that group back from Trump. But he has to be stronger on it. 

I think a Biden presidency will calm the situation in America but if
 I'm honest, I think Trump, for all of his vile behaviour, has changed the course of U. S politics forever. I think he really has put a huge nail into the coffin of neoliberalism and this is a pattern that I think future Democratic administrations are going to have to follow up on. There is no political turning back. 

I sort of agree about Trafalgar. I think that for now, we'll stick by the five thirty-eight poll. I mean even I have to be honest, I am hugely sceptical about Trafalgar and its claims. It's not that 2016 surprise anymore. Trump has made a huge mess and I just can't seem him winning over the "I just want to get on with my life" brigade like he did the last time.

[Eric the Green]

(10-21-2020, 03:19 PM)Isoko Wrote: Eric, 

I think personally with a Biden administration, we won't see actually any major changes. Biden in a sense wants to turn back the clock to what America was like before 2016. I think the mindset in the current Democratic climate is to get Biden elected and "pretend" the last four years never happened. Problem is, Trump has upset the apple cart too much for that to be feasible. 

The first problem is China. Whether or not he wants it, Biden is going to have to take a strong hand here as Trump has too badly damaged relations. Going back to the "you just make our clothes and we'll pretend nothing is happening with your human rights abuses" is pretty much gone. 

Second is Europe. Trump has badly damaged relations with Europe to the point that Europe is starting to drift further away from Washington. Trust in America is at an all time low. When Europe has a problem, it would rather talk to Moscow then Washington...

Third obviously I mentioned is economics. I'm not really seeing any major blue collar support for Biden as of yet. If he can succeed with trickle down economics then by all means, he can get that group back from Trump. But he has to be stronger on it. 

I think a Biden presidency will calm the situation in America but if
 I'm honest, I think Trump, for all of his vile behaviour, has changed the course of U. S politics forever. I think he really has put a huge nail into the coffin of neoliberalism and this is a pattern that I think future Democratic administrations are going to have to follow up on. There is no political turning back. 

I sort of agree about Trafalgar. I think that for now, we'll stick by the five thirty-eight poll. I mean even I have to be honest, I am hugely sceptical about Trafalgar and its claims. It's not that 2016 surprise anymore. Trump has made a huge mess and I just can't seem him winning over the "I just want to get on with my life" brigade like he did the last time.

Right. Trump is the neo-liberal on steroids. Neo-liberalism is let business do what it wants; lower taxes on the rich and fewer regulations and the benefits will trickle-down. That's all it is. Biden is talking against it in policy, but not so specifically by attacking the Reagan meme. If he did that more clearly, he might get back some of the blue-collar vote. Biden is the pro-labor candidate overall, and he needs to keep making that clear. It will be up to the workers to vote their interests, rather than their prejudices that Trump appeals to.

Trump tricked them by promising to overturn free trade. That remains a thorny problem that no-one seems to have a handle on, especially regarding China. In that sense you are right; dealing with China may still to some extent remain in the Trump ballpark. Biden will try a more finessed approach, and he is not going to be so cozy with their dictator-- along with the other dictators Trump likes and admires.

[Bob Butler 54]

I guess the shenanigans have started.  It seems that several of Rachel Maddow's viewers received an e-mail that said they knew the receiver's name, e-mail address, physical address, who you voted for, and if you didn't vote for Trump they were coming to get you.  Several folks reported this to Rachel from places as diverse as Florida and Alaska.  The reportedly notified the local police and FBI as well.  I figure that for everyone who notified Rachel, there were a bunch who didn't.  It was rumored that these were sent from a Proud Boys web site, which was hacked but seemingly implicates a pro Trump faction.  It was rumored that this was a foreign op, most likely Iran, Russia also mentioned.  The Trump political guy said it was an anti Trump message, which confused the press involved as it was on the surface a pro Trump message.  Schumer guessed it was more to reduce the credibility and trust in the election system.

It was emphasized that the actual votes were off line, that it would be virtually impossible to change a vote by hacking. You would have to get physical custody of the ballots.  However, many jurisdictions keep their voting lists on less secure computers.  It is very possible to pick up or change voter registration information, which is in the public domain anyway.  (Not the how you voted part.  That is emphatically not in the public domain, but the claim was made.)  How do you think the major parties know who to call in their phone bank operations?  

Senator Schumer emphasized one threat.  If they could change your address, that implied a change of your polling location.  After waiting in line for hours to vote, you could learn you were registered somewhere else, and have to go start the process all again elsewhere.

T mins 13 days...  Counting.

Edit.  CNN's report on the incident.

Edit 2: Is this all so Iran makes me sympathetic with the poor abused Proud Boys?

[Eric the Green]

Oct.22, 9 AM EDT
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +9.9

Alaska Trump +5.5
Arizona Biden +3.5
Florida Biden +3.8
Georgia Biden +1
Indiana Trump +10.4
Iowa Biden +1.1
Kansas Trump +9.5
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.3
Michigan Biden +8.1
Minnesota Biden +7.9
Missouri Trump +6.3
Montana Trump +8.1
Nevada Biden +6.5
New Hampshire Biden +11.5
North Carolina Biden +3.1
Ohio Trump +0.8
Pennsylvania Biden +6.3
South Carolina Trump +7
Texas Trump +0.6
Wisconsin Biden +6.6

[pbrower2a]

(10-21-2020, 02:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-21-2020, 12:30 PM)Isoko Wrote: Not sure what to make of it but in the latest financial reports, they are showing the vote narrowing with the potentiality for another Trump victory. 

Also of interest is the Trafalgar Group which supposedly was the only poll to accurately get Trumps last win correct, some guy winning a seat in 2018 right and now they are saying Trump is on the course for a narrow win as well. 

Apparently, they are picking up the hidden Trump voters and in key States such as Michigan and Pensylvania, Trump is one point ahead of Biden. Also he is apparently in front when it comes to Georgia, Florida and Ohio. 

Now this is interesting. My wife thinks Trump screwed up too much with the corona virus and this is going to cost him with the independents. On the other hand, I think that Trump will easily win over those blue collar workers again, along with energising his base to get out and vote. 

On the other hand, you have a lot of people in America who just want things to return back to normal and will vote for Biden just to get Trump out of office. I think Trump has alienated a lot of moderates, the what I call "I just want to get on with my life", people.

This all said, I did have an interesting thought today. The reason people were pushed to vote for Trump the first time around was the economy. They wanted to send the Democrats a big message that they were not happy with the economy. 

Therefore the Dems have got to get serious about the economy and actually turning Americas fortunes around. Actually build a new economy that works for all. Right now, they don't seem to be making any noise about displacing neo liberalism and seem quite happy to continue on the same old path. Dems have got to have a big u turn otherwise these political upsets could keep happening down the road.

You got that last part right. I think if Biden comes out clearly against trickle-down economics, which his policies already imply that he will, he'll get some of those blue-collar votes back.

As for Trafalgar, a broken clock is right twice a day. It is definitely and deliberately a Republican poll, and a constant outlier. The averages from fivethirtyeight that I am posting is what to go by. Those are based on the most polls, not on "financial reports."

The Trafalgar poll is worthless, something simply expressing the wishful thinking of the President. The Trump campaign does what it must to keep up the hope of the President, including the purchase of polls that exist to tell him what he wants to hear. Internal documents showed that Trafalgar Group would supply its client the results taht that client wants. It thus has no agility.