Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Current anomaly: Five generations alive!
#41
(08-12-2019, 06:48 AM)Anthony Wrote:
(08-11-2019, 10:54 AM)Ghost Wrote:
(08-11-2019, 09:12 AM)Anthony Wrote: No way was 2008 the start of any Crisis.  Unemployment only got up to 10.2% (in October 2019) - while in November and December of 1982 it reached 10.8%.

Yet 9/11 never really changed anything: Not only didn't the Culture Wars not diffuse, they actually intensified - Lawrence v. Texas, 2003, Obergefell v. Hodges, 2015, Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, 2018.

So what I have chosen to do is to do something unique and declare 9/11 a "half-catalyst" that moved us into a place between a 3T and 4T - where we will remain until the 2020 election, when a Super Civil War Anomaly (and a Second Civil War itself) will break out.

What do you think are the "bridge zones" between the turnings? In my opinion, they go like this:

4T to 1T: 1942-1945 (starts with Stalingrad and ends with the end of WWII)

1T to 2T: 1960-1965 (starts with the introduction of the birth control pill and ends with the start of America's involvement in Vietnam)

2T to 3T: 1978-1984 (starts with Carter's popularity slightly slipping and ends with Reagan's 1984 landslide victory)

3T to 4T: 2001-2008 (starts with 9/11 and ends with the 2008 financial crisis)

One common trend I seem to notice is that over time, bridge zones between "turning periods" keep getting bigger.

Bridge between 4T and 1T is 3 years long.
Bridge between 1T and 2T is 5 years long.
Bridge between 2T and 3T is 6 years long.
Bridge between 3T and 4T is 7 years long.

I really do not know if 2T/3T bridge is correct and if it isn't, please let me know.


9/11 is still at the early end of your "bridge" range - but as I have stated previously, 9/11 caused a Civil War anomaly in reverse, since it did not unite the country the way Pearl Harbor did; indeed, the Culture Wars have not only raged on, but have become more violent - with the worst very likely to come, in Portland this coming Saturday.

As for the 2T/3T thing, the inauguration of Ronald Reagan and the concomitant release of the hostages from Iran works perfectly.  Take it from a dude who was there, and who saw the two events on split screen, as they happened, tying them up into a neat little red-white-and-blue bow - and putting me on the young side of a very real generational divide (up to that point I had always believed that "hippie" was short for "hypocrite" and that "New Age" rhymed with "sewage").

I always thought that the 1980 election and John Lennon's assassination marked the turning point between 2T and 3T, but that would only make the bridge a four-and-a-half week period rather than a legitimate bridge.

The one thing I am really confused about though is if my 1978 starting date for the 2T/3T transition is correct, because other than the fact that it was the year where Carter's popularity starts dipping a little bit, there doesn't really seem to be anything 3T about the year.
Reply
#42
And going back to the OP: There are actually six generations still alive: See Henry Kissinger, Hugh Downs (who hosted the TV game show Concentration, which inspired the Gen-X classic board game Husker Du?), Betty White, Jimmy Carter, Russell Nelson (President of the LDS/Mormon Church), etc.
"It was better with them that were slain by the sword, than with them that died with hunger, for these pined away being consumed for want of the fruits of the earth" - Lamentations 4:9
Reply
#43
(08-12-2019, 10:24 AM)Anthony Wrote: And going back to the OP: There are actually six generations still alive: See Henry Kissinger, Hugh Downs (who hosted the TV game show Concentration, which inspired the Gen-X classic board game Husker Du?), Betty White, Jimmy Carter, Russell Nelson (President of the LDS/Mormon Church), etc.

What are your thoughts on the 18-year theory/Michael Alexander theory when it comes to generations? In my opinion, it seems to be the least controversial:

Civil War Saeculum
1802-1819: Transcendental Generation
1820-1837: Gilded Generation
1838-1855: Bleeding Generation
1856-1873: Progressive Generation

Great Power Saeculum
1874-1891: Idealists
1892-1909: Automobile Generation
1910-1927: GI Generaiton
1928-1945: Silent Generation

Millennial Saeculum
1946-1963: Baby Boomers
1964-1981: Generation X
1982-1999: Millennials
2000-2017: Homelanders

Post-Millennial Saeculum
2018-2035: Neo-Prophets
2036-2053: Unnamed nomad generation
2054-2071: Unnamed hero generation
2072-2089: Unnamed artist generation
Reply
#44
It's the "least controversial" in the sense that no one pays attention to it, maybe. With the sole exception of the end of WWII, it doesn't align with anything.
Reply
#45
JFK's assassination is of less historical note than MLK's assassination in 1968. Big whoop. Y2K was of even less significance.
Reply
#46
(08-12-2019, 04:37 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: JFK's assassination is of less historical note than MLK's assassination in 1968.  Big whoop.  Y2K was of even less significance.

What do you believe is the 2T length then?
Reply
#47
I have made a few changes since the days of http://www.babybusters.org, which will be undergoing major changes soon. While pretty much willing to conform to S&H's model up through the Lost, after that the pattern changes, and the generations become shorter:

Interbellum Generation: Born 1901-1910 (core grandparents of the Baby Busters)
World War II Generation: Born 1911-1926 (by the time the 1927 cohorts got out of basic training, WW2 was already over)
Silent Generation: Born 1927-1942 (core parents of the Baby Busters)
Baby Boomers: Born 1943-1957 (no memory of WW2)
Baby Busters: Born 1958-1968 (Birth rate declined 11 years in a row; rejected Boomer views on political and social issues; entire childhood shaped by Cold War)
Core Xers: Born 1969-1981
Millennials: Born 1982-1998
Activists: Born 1999-2019? (no memory of 9/11)
"It was better with them that were slain by the sword, than with them that died with hunger, for these pined away being consumed for want of the fruits of the earth" - Lamentations 4:9
Reply
#48
(08-13-2019, 07:02 AM)Anthony Wrote: I have made a few changes since the days of http://www.babybusters.org, which will be undergoing major changes soon.  While pretty much willing to conform to S&H's model up through the Lost, after that the pattern changes, and the generations become shorter:

Interbellum Generation: Born 1901-1910 (core grandparents of the Baby Busters)
World War II Generation: Born 1911-1926 (by the time the 1927 cohorts got out of basic training, WW2 was already over)
Silent Generation: Born 1927-1942 (core parents of the Baby Busters)
Baby Boomers: Born 1943-1957 (no memory of WW2)
Baby Busters: Born 1958-1968 (Birth rate declined 11 years in a row; rejected Boomer views on political and social issues; entire childhood shaped by Cold War)
Core Xers: Born 1969-1981
Millennials: Born 1982-1998
Activists: Born 1999-2019? (no memory of 9/11)

I'm a bit hesitant on including 1927 as Silents and 1999 as Gen Z because 1927 borns were old enough to go to WWII and 1999 borns already graduated high school before Parkland, likely the first event where Gen Z actually made an impact.

Probably not as important, but 1927 borns were the last to be at high school when Pearl Harbor happened and the last to be able to vote in the 1948 election. 1999 borns, on the other hand, were the last to be at school before Web 2.0 and also the last to graduate high school before the #MeToo movement and Generation Z actually gaining an identity separate from that of the Millennials with Fortnite, tide pods, and "Gen Z yellow".

I'm not really sure about the "remembering 9/11" rule because there could be this one guy born in 1999 who lived in NYC at the time who remembered it and another guy born in 1996 who lived in California at the time who didn't. I'm not saying that this will always be the case as it is very rare, but some people can start to form memories at age 2. (https://io9.gizmodo.com/new-evidence-tha...es-5870377)
Reply
#49
(08-12-2019, 10:24 AM)Anthony Wrote: And going back to the OP: There are actually six generations still alive: See Henry Kissinger, Hugh Downs (who hosted the TV game show Concentration, which inspired the Gen-X classic board game Husker Du?), Betty White, Jimmy Carter, Russell Nelson (President of the LDS/Mormon Church), etc.

Except for the Mormon leader (probably), they aren't really doing much.
Reply
#50
(08-12-2019, 06:48 AM)Anthony Wrote:
(08-11-2019, 10:54 AM)Ghost Wrote:
(08-11-2019, 09:12 AM)Anthony Wrote: No way was 2008 the start of any Crisis.  Unemployment only got up to 10.2% (in October 2019) - while in November and December of 1982 it reached 10.8%.

Yet 9/11 never really changed anything: Not only didn't the Culture Wars not diffuse, they actually intensified - Lawrence v. Texas, 2003, Obergefell v. Hodges, 2015, Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, 2018.

So what I have chosen to do is to do something unique and declare 9/11 a "half-catalyst" that moved us into a place between a 3T and 4T - where we will remain until the 2020 election, when a Super Civil War Anomaly (and a Second Civil War itself) will break out.

What do you think are the "bridge zones" between the turnings? In my opinion, they go like this:

4T to 1T: 1942-1945 (starts with Stalingrad and ends with the end of WWII)

1T to 2T: 1960-1965 (starts with the introduction of the birth control pill and ends with the start of America's involvement in Vietnam)

2T to 3T: 1978-1984 (starts with Carter's popularity slightly slipping and ends with Reagan's 1984 landslide victory)

3T to 4T: 2001-2008 (starts with 9/11 and ends with the 2008 financial crisis)

One common trend I seem to notice is that over time, bridge zones between "turning periods" keep getting bigger.

Bridge between 4T and 1T is 3 years long.
Bridge between 1T and 2T is 5 years long.
Bridge between 2T and 3T is 6 years long.
Bridge between 3T and 4T is 7 years long.

I really do not know if 2T/3T bridge is correct and if it isn't, please let me know.


9/11 is still at the early end of your "bridge" range - but as I have stated previously, 9/11 caused a Civil War anomaly in reverse, since it did not unite the country the way Pearl Harbor did; indeed, the Culture Wars have not only raged on, but have become more violent - with the worst very likely to come, in Portland this coming Saturday.

As for the 2T/3T thing, the inauguration of Ronald Reagan and the concomitant release of the hostages from Iran works perfectly.  Take it from a dude who was there, and who saw the two events on split screen, as they happened, tying them up into a neat little red-white-and-blue bow - and putting me on the young side of a very real generational divide (up to that point I had always believed that "hippie" was short for "hypocrite" and that "New Age" rhymed with "sewage").

Some don't even have "bridge ranges" at all. What are your thoughts on people who say that 9/11 was the start of 4T? In a way, I can see it because of how it "made America lose its innocence" and changed the American way of life completely.
Reply
#51
(08-14-2019, 10:54 PM)Ghost Wrote:
(08-12-2019, 06:48 AM)Anthony Wrote:
(08-11-2019, 10:54 AM)Ghost Wrote:
(08-11-2019, 09:12 AM)Anthony Wrote: No way was 2008 the start of any Crisis.  Unemployment only got up to 10.2% (in October 2019) - while in November and December of 1982 it reached 10.8%.

Yet 9/11 never really changed anything: Not only didn't the Culture Wars not diffuse, they actually intensified - Lawrence v. Texas, 2003, Obergefell v. Hodges, 2015, Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, 2018.

So what I have chosen to do is to do something unique and declare 9/11 a "half-catalyst" that moved us into a place between a 3T and 4T - where we will remain until the 2020 election, when a Super Civil War Anomaly (and a Second Civil War itself) will break out.

What do you think are the "bridge zones" between the turnings? In my opinion, they go like this:

4T to 1T: 1942-1945 (starts with Stalingrad and ends with the end of WWII)

1T to 2T: 1960-1965 (starts with the introduction of the birth control pill and ends with the start of America's involvement in Vietnam)

2T to 3T: 1978-1984 (starts with Carter's popularity slightly slipping and ends with Reagan's 1984 landslide victory)

3T to 4T: 2001-2008 (starts with 9/11 and ends with the 2008 financial crisis)

One common trend I seem to notice is that over time, bridge zones between "turning periods" keep getting bigger.

Bridge between 4T and 1T is 3 years long.
Bridge between 1T and 2T is 5 years long.
Bridge between 2T and 3T is 6 years long.
Bridge between 3T and 4T is 7 years long.

I really do not know if 2T/3T bridge is correct and if it isn't, please let me know.


9/11 is still at the early end of your "bridge" range - but as I have stated previously, 9/11 caused a Civil War anomaly in reverse, since it did not unite the country the way Pearl Harbor did; indeed, the Culture Wars have not only raged on, but have become more violent - with the worst very likely to come, in Portland this coming Saturday.

As for the 2T/3T thing, the inauguration of Ronald Reagan and the concomitant release of the hostages from Iran works perfectly.  Take it from a dude who was there, and who saw the two events on split screen, as they happened, tying them up into a neat little red-white-and-blue bow - and putting me on the young side of a very real generational divide (up to that point I had always believed that "hippie" was short for "hypocrite" and that "New Age" rhymed with "sewage").

Some don't even have "bridge ranges" at all. What are your thoughts on people who say that 9/11 was the start of 4T? In a way, I can see it because of how it "made America lose its innocence" and changed the American way of life completely.

So did WW1 yet that was considered the 3T.
Reply


Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  "Core" vs. "Non-Core" Semi-Generations Anthony '58 26 5,031 09-24-2019, 06:43 PM
Last Post: Ghost
  Influence of single mothers for non-Artist generations Hintergrund 2 244 08-26-2019, 10:15 PM
Last Post: Hintergrund
  Generations in the Social Media Era sbarrera 6 840 08-07-2019, 07:24 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Dionysian and Apollonian generations Bill the Piper 0 348 02-13-2019, 02:10 PM
Last Post: Bill the Piper
  Analysis of the Generations Isn’t an Exact Science Dan '82 12 6,285 07-26-2016, 04:39 AM
Last Post: taramarie
  Generations in general, between generations, etc. Eric the Green 4 2,543 05-21-2016, 05:22 AM
Last Post: Galen

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)