COVID-19 is the climax to this 4T

[Isoko]

(04-05-2020, 01:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-05-2020, 01:16 PM)Isoko Wrote: I would argue and say that this is not a climax but more the beginning of the of the end of the 4T. If I was to describe it, this is more of a Franz Ferdinand moment. The crisis that will ultimately reshape the world.

What's the equivalent of the World War, though?  Once the pandemic is over, it seems to me things return to where they were just before the pandemic, rather than changing.

I would say it depends on which part of the world you live in. In America, I would say that on the domestic front, there will probably be a very hard recession but due to the dollar being the world reserve currency, the U.S will just print itself out of the quagmire for now. Eventually there will be a debt default but that is I think a few decades down the line. That itself will be very painful.

However in order to reduce expenditures and with a rather bad public image, I believe that the U.S "empire" will start to really come apart during this decade. You can already see the decline in middle Eastern affairs and even in Europe, Russia is being favourably looked upon as a better partner then America...

Now as for Europe on the other hand, I think that this is likely going to lead to a depression. Too much debt, weak centralised authority from the EU and too many basket case economies. I think after corona virus, Europe is going to explode into heavy political action. I expect that the economic woes along with continued problems of immigration will lead to the rise of populist governments and the eventual death of the EU, which in itself is another economic storm waiting to happen.

Europe will of course eventually recover but I presume it'll take decades. So we are no where near out of the 4T yet, especially for Europe. It is just beginning.

The problem is, a lot of people on here think to themselves 2008 was a 4T event but let's be honest, life just went on. There was no major disruptions to life. Just events that did not really change the world. It felt more like a 3T to be honest. Just one large can kicking down the road. Crimea here. Brexit there. Trump over in that corner. It never actually really changed anything in a major way.

People on here think that these events are just a crisis but globalisation will go on and that will be it. But in my eyes, the 4T can only when you have the collapse of an order and the beginning of a new one. Until we get to that event, there can be no revival.

[Snowflake1996]

What about something like this?

1929-1947 4T
1948-1965 1T
1966-1984 2T
1985-2001 3T
2002-2021? 4T

Boomers 1943-1960
Xers 1961-1979
Millennials 1980-1996
Zoomers 1997-2016?
New Prophets-2017-onwards (too young to remember the Great Quarantine that both Zoomers and Millennials will talk about for decades)

Catalyst: 9/11 followed by the war on terror, Katrina, housing market pop, and financial crisis 
Regeneracy: Obama’s administration. The passage of the affordable care act, the stimulus, Dodd-Frank, don’t ask don’t tell repeal, Osama’s death, etc. 
-Note: Obama is the gray champion (He was born closer to the end of the last 4T than FDR or Lincoln were. He is old enough to fulfill this role). 
Crisis: Trump/Covid19 (a direct threat to the regeneracy that millennials supported with their electoral support behind Obama). Perhaps this is a leading indicator that Biden will cement Obama’s reforms if he wins in November? 

It seems like we’re way overdue for the regeneracy phase.

[David Horn]

(04-05-2020, 01:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-05-2020, 01:16 PM)Isoko Wrote: I would argue and say that this is not a climax but more the beginning of the of the end of the 4T. If I was to describe it, this is more of a Franz Ferdinand moment. The crisis that will ultimately reshape the world.

What's the equivalent of the World War, though?  Once the pandemic is over, it seems to me things return to where they were just before the pandemic, rather than changing.

This is doubtful.  First, the terminating event will either be widespread vaccine inoculations or enough rounds of infestation that herd immunity becomes dominant enough to do it alone.  Unless the vaccine arrives in record time, this goes on for a year or more.  By then, the economy will be transformed, and will not be in any shape to merely snap back.  Second, debt loads will be high, while infrastructure projects, AGW and other must-dos will become even more urgent.

I have no idea why the supposed stock experts continue to be so damn optimistic, when return-to-normal is months to years away.  It's nuts!

[Isoko]

Also in regards to turnings, I think that maybe we have just entered a 4T right now. Obviously there is the traditional view that the 4T started in 2008 or even 2001 but in my eyes, a 4T is a period of time when lots of stuff happens and normality cannot be resumed until after the crisis.

This is not so with either 2001 or 2008. Life went on. There was no major disruptions to life. None whatsoever. The coronavirus pandemic is the first major disruption to life, at least on a global scale, since world war 2.

Once you have that key event, everything starts to collapse pretty quickly and in the end things need to be rebuilt a new for a true recovery to take place.

With this event, expect new events to add onto this existing one, making a true 4T time period to live in. My estimation is that for the West, the next 1T should be about the 2030 - 2040 phase. Depends once again where you live.

[pbrower2a]

(04-06-2020, 07:25 AM)Snowflake1996 Wrote: What about something like this?

1929-1947 4T
1948-1965 1T
1966-1984 2T
1985-2001 3T
2002-2021? 4T

Boomers 1943-1960
Xers 1961-1979
Millennials 1980-1996
Zoomers 1997-2016?
New Prophets-2017-onwards (too young to remember the Great Quarantine that both Zoomers and Millennials will talk about for decades)

Catalyst: 9/11 followed by the war on terror, Katrina, housing market pop, and financial crisis 
Regeneracy: Obama’s administration. The passage of the affordable care act, the stimulus, Dodd-Frank, don’t ask don’t tell repeal, Osama’s death, etc. 
-Note: Obama is the gray champion (He was born closer to the end of the last 4T than FDR or Lincoln were. He is old enough to fulfill this role). 
Crisis: Trump/Covid19 (a direct threat to the regeneracy that millennials supported with their electoral support behind Obama). Perhaps this is a leading indicator that Biden will cement Obama’s reforms if he wins in November? 

It seems like we’re way overdue for the regeneracy phase.

Power figures have repressed any lasting Regeneracy; COVID-19 may make such impossible. Note well that much that goes on in a depraved 3T is profitable -- a celebrity culture that allows people to get rich for exploiting their fame, speculative bubbles that devour capital but create paper profits, privatization and monopolization, sweetheart deals between government and Big Business, 'consolidation' of small business, and the imposition of huge personal debt upon the common man... the super-rich often wanted Obama to fail politically so that they could establish the pure plutocracy of their dreams. Survival strategies for meeting COVID-19 will put an end to much of the depraved behavior of a 3T culture that long outlasted its value. 

Obama is much like FDR in being on the Idealist-Reactive cusp. There were some nasty people (Ion Antonescu, Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel, Getulio Vargas) born in 1882... Howe and Strauss saw FDR more like Lincoln than like any other President in American history, which is a reasonable assessment. FDR was often considered devious, and he had some very Lost traits.

Obama is not a Boomer; if anything he has acted more like a mature Reactive, the sort of person more intent on calming things than shaking things up. He's the sort of leader that America gets plenty of after a Crisis -- and if in a Crisis, only at the end. He cleaves to precedent and protocol; he has no great agenda. I see Obama more like Eisenhower than like FDR.  Ike was a fine President, and it is telling that Obama won only one state in 2012 that Eisenhower did not win twice -- and that exception was Hawaii, which wasn't voting in the 1950's. Obama in 2008 even did something Republican nominees for President usually did -- having a positive connection between voting for him and income. (That was really formal education, but Ike also wiped Stevenson out among people with college educations). 

One thing is certain: Donald Trump is not the Grey Champion. He has done more to divide America than to reconcile it. His vision is little more than his ideology, one that offends half the American electorate at the least. He seems like the end of the line of a political fad that has either gone stale or has been taken to its preposterous conclusion. Besides, he is simply a horrible person. He has the vices usually associated with the worst Idealists (selfishness, fanaticism, and narcissism) with none of the culture, principle, or historical perspective that one associates with Idealists at their best.

[Snowflake1996]

(04-06-2020, 11:42 AM)Isoko Wrote: Also in regards to turnings, I think that maybe we have just entered a 4T right now. Obviously there is the traditional view that the 4T started in 2008 or even 2001 but in my eyes, a 4T is a period of time when lots of stuff happens and normality cannot be resumed until after the crisis.

This is not so with either 2001 or 2008. Life went on. There was no major disruptions to life. None whatsoever. The coronavirus pandemic is the first major disruption to life, at least on a global scale, since world war 2.

Once you have that key event, everything starts to collapse pretty quickly and in the end things need to be rebuilt a new for a true recovery to take place.

With this event, expect new events to add onto this existing one, making a true 4T time period to live in. My estimation is that for the West, the next 1T should be about the 2030 - 2040 phase. Depends once again where you live.

If 2019/2020 is the start of the 4T for the reasons you listed then that could indicate that Strauss and Howe have underestimated the effect that both longevity and the increasing ratio of old:young people have had on lengthening the saeculum. The normal saeculum for the American cycle has been 80-84 years but a 4T starting in 2019 would indicate that this new one will expand to 90 years or more. Personally I’m on the fence with this. We likely won’t get a clear picture until the mid 2030’s or later.

[Isoko]

(04-06-2020, 12:40 PM)Snowflake1996 Wrote:

(04-06-2020, 11:42 AM)Isoko Wrote: Also in regards to turnings, I think that maybe we have just entered a 4T right now. Obviously there is the traditional view that the 4T started in 2008 or even 2001 but in my eyes, a 4T is a period of time when lots of stuff happens and normality cannot be resumed until after the crisis.

This is not so with either 2001 or 2008. Life went on. There was no major disruptions to life. None whatsoever. The coronavirus pandemic is the first major disruption to life, at least on a global scale, since world war 2.

Once you have that key event, everything starts to collapse pretty quickly and in the end things need to be rebuilt a new for a true recovery to take place.

With this event, expect new events to add onto this existing one, making a true 4T time period to live in. My estimation is that for the West, the next 1T should be about the 2030 - 2040 phase. Depends once again where you live.

If 2019/2020 is the start of the 4T for the reasons you listed then that could indicate that Strauss and Howe have underestimated the effect that both longevity and the increasing ratio of old:young people have had on lengthening the saeculum. The normal saeculum for the American cycle has been 80-84 years but a 4T starting in 2019 would indicate that this new one will expand to 90 years or more. Personally I’m on the fence with this. We likely won’t get a clear picture until the mid 2030’s or later.

Yes I seem to be the mindset that Strauss and Howe got the timing wrong due to extended life spans but also the system in place was able to withstand more pressure this time around until recently. Plus with WMDs, there never was a mad dash to a major war.

Looking back at the past, I would say that a generational shift has occurred at a more slower pace compared to the past. 

So for example:

Generation X is more of a 2T generation. They came of age during the 1990s which is regarded as a second 1960s. They fought in Afghanistan and Iraq which was the equivalent of Vietnam. They pushed for legalisation of cannabis, same sex marriage and other major social changes. I'd say they are equivalent to the boomers in many ways.

The Millennials are a 3T generation of Nomads. They grew up in an unraveling that should have led to a major crisis but never quite did. They got behind movements like the Alt Right and Anti fascist groups. They mainly live in their parents basements, start families later and are now starting to age. If there ever was a nomadic generation of our times, it would be the Millennials. They do not at all fit a typical 4T.

Then you have the Zoomers who have come of age during the era of Brexit and Trump along with this crisis. It'll be this generation that takes to the streets in Europe, in America. It'll be this generation that tackles the crisis head on. If there is a major conflict, they will fight it. If there is a collapse and major rebuilding to be done, it'll be the Zoomers.

Of course it would have been the Millennials had the crisis actually occurred on their watch but it never did and instead the slow decline just continued.

[Warren Dew]

(04-06-2020, 03:52 AM)Isoko Wrote: I would say it depends on which part of the world you live in....

However in order to reduce expenditures and with a rather bad public image, I believe that the U.S "empire" will start to really come apart during this decade. You can already see the decline in middle Eastern affairs and even in Europe, Russia is being favourably looked upon as a better partner then America...

Now as for Europe on the other hand, I think that this is likely going to lead to a depression. Too much debt, weak centralised authority from the EU and too many basket case economies. I think after corona virus, Europe is going to explode into heavy political action. I expect that the economic woes along with continued problems of immigration will lead to the rise of populist governments and the eventual death of the EU, which in itself is another economic storm waiting to happen.

Good point.  If the EU falls apart, that would likely suffice for the reduction in economic concentration that I think is needed.

The US isn't going to give up its "empire" easily, though.  That might imply follow on conflicts with Russia and China.  Or maybe the US and Russia divide up Europe again.

[Warren Dew]

(04-06-2020, 11:42 AM)Isoko Wrote: Also in regards to turnings, I think that maybe we have just entered a 4T right now. Obviously there is the traditional view that the 4T started in 2008 or even 2001 but in my eyes, a 4T is a period of time when lots of stuff happens and normality cannot be resumed until after the crisis.

This is not so with either 2001 or 2008. Life went on. There was no major disruptions to life. None whatsoever. The coronavirus pandemic is the first major disruption to life, at least on a global scale, since world war 2.

Unless you think the last 4T didn't start until 1937 or 1939, it also had a long period where nothing was happening during the Great Depression.

Life did not go on after 2008.  Survival went on, but there was no return to a dynamic 3T economy.

[Isoko]

Hi Warren,

I have to disagree with this statement. First, the great depression did trigger events in the world that helped page the way for the climax. It led to the Italian invasion of Abbysina, the Japanese occupation of Manchukuo, the rise of Hitler and the subsequent occupation of the Rhineland. The Great Depression did trigger a lot of events in a short order. So in that case, yes, the 4T did start in 1929.

However in 2008, you say it was survival? I remember that period quite well. There was a shortage of jobs but due to the immense government bailouts, there was no crash. People just got on with their lives. People still got jobs, they still bought houses, there was plenty of food on the shelves, etc. The only major decline in economic living was a result of globalisation and neo liberalism but not actually 2008.

The events that followed really felt like more of a 3T. However, I still stand by that Corona virus is the beginning of this 4T. Like with 1929, expect events to open up now in short succession rather then a slow line that what transpired from 2008.

My family in the UK tell me how difficult it is to buy food. That is 4T tier. Italy wants to leave in the EU and is in a huge crisis. That is 4T tier. Russia is giving aid to the United States. That is 4T tier. Compared to 2008, we really are entering the 4T.

[Isoko]

Warren: The American empire is morally bankrupt these days and there just is not the popular support to maintain it either at home or abroad. The cold war dynamics of the 1980s have pretty much died out since 2001. The country is hugely unpopular.

My prediction is that the collapse of the empire will either be violent or peaceful. The violent option would be a disastrous war somewhere that forces America to pull out and abandon hegemony. The second would be a peaceful withdrawal due to financial concerns and international pressure, like what happened to the British Empire.

It remains to be seen.

[Ghost]

(04-06-2020, 12:40 PM)Snowflake1996 Wrote:

(04-06-2020, 11:42 AM)Isoko Wrote: Also in regards to turnings, I think that maybe we have just entered a 4T right now. Obviously there is the traditional view that the 4T started in 2008 or even 2001 but in my eyes, a 4T is a period of time when lots of stuff happens and normality cannot be resumed until after the crisis.

This is not so with either 2001 or 2008. Life went on. There was no major disruptions to life. None whatsoever. The coronavirus pandemic is the first major disruption to life, at least on a global scale, since world war 2.

Once you have that key event, everything starts to collapse pretty quickly and in the end things need to be rebuilt a new for a true recovery to take place.

With this event, expect new events to add onto this existing one, making a true 4T time period to live in. My estimation is that for the West, the next 1T should be about the 2030 - 2040 phase. Depends once again where you live.

If 2019/2020 is the start of the 4T for the reasons you listed then that could indicate that Strauss and Howe have underestimated the effect that both longevity and the increasing ratio of old:young people have had on lengthening the saeculum. The normal saeculum for the American cycle has been 80-84 years but a 4T starting in 2019 would indicate that this new one will expand to 90 years or more. Personally I’m on the fence with this. We likely won’t get a clear picture until the mid 2030’s or later.

It's most likely closer to 80-90 (Strauss and Howe have said 80, 88, and 90 I believe), with 84 being the average.

[pbrower2a]

Rank War Years Deaths Deaths per day U.S. population in first year of war Deaths as percentage of population
1 American Civil War 1861–65 750,000 (est.)(U.S./Confederate)[86] 520 31,443,000 2.385% (1860)
2 World War II 1941–45 405,399 297 133,402,000 0.307% (1940)
3 World War I 1917–18 116,516 279 103,268,000 0.110% (1920)
4 Vietnam War 1961–75 58,209 11 179,323,175 0.032% (1970)
5 Korean War 1950–53 54,246 45 151,325,000 0.036% (1950)
6 American Revolutionary War 1775–83 25,000 11 2,500,000 1.00% (1780)
7 War of 1812 1812–15 15,000 15 8,000,000 0.207% (1810)
8 Mexican–American War 1846–48 13,283 29 21,406,000 0.057% (1850)
9 Iraq War 2003–2011 4,576 2 294,043,000 0.002% (2010)
10 Philippine–American War 1899–1902 4,196 3.8 72,129,001 0.006% (1900)
11 Spanish–American War 1898 2,246 8.9 62,022,250 0.004% (1890)
12 War in Afghanistan 2001–present 2,216 0.36 294,043,000 0.001% (2010)

Deaths from COVID-19 in America have surpassed military casualties of the US in all but eight wars. Within two or three days (barring miracles) the deaths will surpass those of all but six. Within a week, all but five.

OK. To have the same effect as a Crisis war on the American population one would need about 1.2 million (World War as a percentage of the US population), 3 million (Revolutionary War), or 6.9 million (American Civil War, Union and Confederate). As a share in the worst non-Crisis war, the War of 1812, about 600 million Americans would have to die of this horrid plague.

Considering that the USA got its independence from Britain in the Revolutionary War (1% loss of the population), abolished the dehumanizing institution of slavery in the Civil War (2.385%), and may have kept the Holocaust out of America during the Second World War (0.307% -- the number of American losses in WWII is much smaller than the American Jewish population, let alone the black population)... it is hard to see any divine purpose in this plague. So far I see only incompetence and negligence by upper leadership in America -- and you know what I mean by "upper leadership". Those are the three most lethal wars in America since 1775 for Americans, the three big Crisis wars.

[pbrower2a]

About 700,000 Americans have contracted AIDS and died. That statistic has caveats attached: AIDS has been killing for about forty years now, and people with AIDS might have died of causes wholly unrelated to AIDS such as vehicle collisions, homicide, and industrial accidents. Add to that, some AIDS victims may now be facing COVID-19 as the coup de grace.

[Tim Randal Walker]

In response to Isoko, most likely peaceful abandonment of the old status quo. Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com), who has written books about international affairs, has monitored U.S. disengagement. This includes declining troop deployments abroad, declining naval deployments....

Which, of course, resonates with declining public support.


The USA has more than one option. It looks like the option playing out is to.... Get out now! Go, while the going is good!

The USA appears to be returning to isolationism, but with a populist tinge (including tariffs).

[sbarrera]

(04-07-2020, 10:46 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: In response to Isoko, , most likely peaceful abandonment of the old status quo.  Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com), who has written books about international affairs, has monitored U.S. disengagement.  This includes declining troop deployments abroad, declining naval deployments....

I think this is the path. It's been happening since Obama, who was elected in part because he was going to end the Bush wars. It's been a gradual and messy withdrawal, with casualties as security has broken down in some places once the American Leviathan departed. But nobody welcomes the Leviathan any more.

[Tim Randal Walker]

The Filipino government has ejected U.S. forces from the Philippines. Which, however, did not result in a fuss in the United States. So, it looks like we will see U.S. forces being withdrawn unilaterally by the U.S. government, or ejected by host governments.

[Tim Randal Walker]

I recall comparisons to the Glorious Revolution. One is that there may be a long build up to a full Crisis mood.

[Warren Dew]

(04-07-2020, 10:46 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The USA appears to be returning to isolationism, but with a populist tinge (including tariffs).

Which is exactly what happened in the 1930s.

That didn't last to the end of the crisis, though.  I doubt it will this time either.

[David Horn]

(04-07-2020, 03:10 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-07-2020, 10:46 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The USA appears to be returning to isolationism, but with a populist tinge (including tariffs).

Which is exactly what happened in the 1930s.

That didn't last to the end of the crisis, though.  I doubt it will this time either.

What may change, and must if sanity is to rule, is the practice of off-shoring critical production.  We're seeing how smart that was right now.  Trade is good; mercantilism isn't.  But that's where we let the MOTW lead us.  A lot of that was promoted by venture capital, that wanted maximum returns every quarter.  Outlawing venture capital would make the hyper-wealthy scream, but it may be necessary to get things back on an even keel.