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"Climax" year of each turning
#41
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 08:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 07:41 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Bob we've had this discussion before.  You are a Whig Historian and as such fall subject to the facilities they are susceptible to.  I'm sure that had Hitler won the war you'd have argued that the Jew Bolsheviks and or Jew Capitalists would have had to go too.

Nope.  That's part of your fantasies.  I have for a long time favored the three Enlightenment virtues of human rights, democracy and equality.  [understatement]  Hitler didn't exemplify those qualities.  [/understatement]  As soon as the adjective Jew was applied, you go against equality specifically.

Hardly you have admitted in the past to being a Whig historian.  That isn't a fantasy.  

As for equality I do not actually believe that people are equal.  Are we all equally tall?  No.  Equally smart?  No.  Each individual is supposedly unique and thus differently gifted and as such equality is a pipe dream at best.

Regarding democracy I'm fine with a republic having democratic institutions so long as those with the votes are those who pay the taxes.  Otherwise there will come a time when the unenlightened and and property-less will discover that they can vote themselves the property of others.

I'm fine with human rights so long as it is limited to life, liberty and the pursuit of property.

Government by those who have economic or institutional power is feudal if with low technology and fascist if with high technology. Neither is democratic.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#42
(05-18-2020, 11:36 AM)Isoko Wrote: Kinser,

There is truth to this. The American right has always been about libertarianism. The idea of being able to build your own fortune and the freedom to do it applies very true to the American right. However the Millennials in American down right scare me. 

They want basically socialism which works well in Europe and even in Russia because it has long been established. But in America? It's way too late to enact such reforms without bankrupting the entire economy even further. 

I've got to say, if America is going to pull itself out of its problems, it does need to go back to that ye olde American wilderness spirit with libertarian values. Although to be honest, I think that is more likely to be the next Awakening over there as the Millennials are just too crazy to reason with as a majority.

As for Europe, spot on. It has always been identitarian. This is why the Alt Right does better in Europe (the exception being the UK). It is no surprise that the majority of French Millennials supported Marine Le Pen over Macron. The argument? "Globalisation is destroying our future and our culture." Europeans tend to take this more seriously then Americans.

I think that ultimately the climax of this turning is going to be Europe turning back towards identitarism and having to build a new way in the world without the EU. Whether it leads to a new EU, quabbling nation states or a new Russian policeman on the bloc remains to be seen.

I would say that socialism doesn't work well in Europe at all.  Margret Thatcher pointed out that socialism works great until you run out of other people's money.  Most of the EU states are flat broke, and the EU itself is fracturing.  Brexit has been largely successful in spite of a pandemic, and there talk now of Quitaly and other states leaving the EU.  Hungary is planning on putting joining the Union on hold for now...and Orban is someone to watch.

I don't expect a New Russian Policeman to turn up.  Russia has its own problems and typically only involves itself into Europe when Europe involves them.  I'm of course excluding Belarus and Ukraine here as both have been inside and outside of Russia on and off for a few thousand years.

Also American Millennials are not  a giant block.  Not all of them support socialism and in fact while some are Sander's Supporting Pinkos there are an equally large number of them who are almost as anti-communist as your local McCarthyite.  I do not think socialism will work in the US, and never has been in the cards anyway.  Unlike Europe the US is not a monolithic ethno-state, and simply put our racial and ethnic divisions work counter to any socialistic tendency.  It is the same reason why the identitarian right doesn't work well in the US also.  I have no explaination for Britain but they seem to be the exception in most things European, just like Russia is.  I once told someone that Europe was that wide minefield god put between Britain and Russia to prevent them from taking over the world.

I expect that the Next 2T will be muted.  It is scheduled to be an Apollonian saeculum anyway, and given that I expect there to be a mega-crisis saeculum I think the Prophets will be far more interested in working out the future of the state rather than re fighting culture wars which are already old.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#43
(05-18-2020, 04:22 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-16-2020, 10:25 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-16-2020, 02:31 PM)naf140230 Wrote: If 2020 is a climax year, then I doubt Trump will be president for much longer.

And he would be replaced by whom?  Biden?  The man doesn't even know where he is half the time.  If the Dimocrats plan on defeating Trump then they are going to have to find a decent candidate.  Unfortunately the only decent Democrat who ran dropped out a while ago.  Pete Buttigieg.  Maybe 2024 for them to take back the white house but even that looks doubtful unless they get their factions in order.

His successor, his VP choice, will at least know which way the wind is blowing. To be sure, Trump is far worse as a dreadful combination of immaturity and senility with a nasty mean streak..

I doubt that.  Here's why.  If his VP pick knows which way the wind is blowing then he will say no.  So that leaves who to say yes? Other failed presidential candidates?  Yeah they have already been rejected.  Or the power hungry but unelectable. Biden is the last hurrah of the Neoliberals before the Dimocratic party sinks into an abyss of factionalism.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#44
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 08:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 07:41 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Bob we've had this discussion before.  You are a Whig Historian and as such fall subject to the facilities they are susceptible to.  I'm sure that had Hitler won the war you'd have argued that the Jew Bolsheviks and or Jew Capitalists would have had to go too.

Nope.  That's part of your fantasies.  I have for a long time favored the three Enlightenment virtues of human rights, democracy and equality.  [understatement]  Hitler didn't exemplify those qualities.  [/understatement]  As soon as the adjective Jew was applied, you go against equality specifically.

Hardly you have admitted in the past to being a Whig historian.  That isn't a fantasy.  

Lining me up with Hitler sure is.

(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I'm fine with human rights so long as it is limited to life, liberty and the pursuit of property.

You forgot the right to kill grandma.

Come to think of it, if you are advocating killing people for financial benefit, isn't opening up with the right to life inconsistent? You should likely drop that one.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#45
(05-18-2020, 08:49 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-18-2020, 05:54 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-16-2020, 10:30 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: … As for the whole "progressivism is the way to go thing" for lack of a better term, you'll find the Boomers on here, and in particular the Blue ones, are blind to the fact that what is and is not progressive is determined after the fact.  History is after all written by the victors.

This is true, but what transformational agenda does the Trump/GOP have on tap?  It looks awfully corrupt and revanchist to me. Can that be defined as any form of progress? I say no … hell no!

Trump's agenda and faction is American Nationalism.  This means controlling immigration, controlling trade and high tariffs.  Is it corrupt?  Probably.  Revanchist?  Not so much.  Unless you consider taking back premier place in the world's economy revenge.  American Nationalists aren't very interested in war in foreign countries, or foreigners in general for that matter.

One could call it isolationist, but isolationism is the opposite of revanchism.

No, Trump's policy preferences are essentially all about him, and his grievances. That's my basis for citing revanchism. Trump is always looking to advantage DJT at the expense of <insert the preferred villain and pettifog of the moment>.

Kinser Wrote:
(05-18-2020, 05:59 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: … Regarding democracy I'm fine with a republic having democratic institutions so long as those with the votes are those who pay the taxes.  Otherwise there will come a time when the unenlightened and and property-less will discover that they can vote themselves the property of others.

I'm fine with human rights so long as it is limited to life, liberty and the pursuit of property.

Wow! When you swing politically, its all the way.

Not hard when you realize that given universal suffrage the have-nots will eventually figure out a way to vote themselves the property of the haves.  Then you get Venezuela.  Since I'm not interested in the US becoming Venezuela Del Norte it is best to limit the franchise.  I figure we could probably swing property requirements though I'd prefer restricting the franchise to Veterans in the same vein of Heinlein's Starship Troopers.

H-m-m-m. Heinlein was a disabled Navy vet, and this brief period in his life had lasting impact on him. His politics, on the other hand, was mercurial, being a hard lefty Democrat at one point, and a hyper libertarian later on. That aside, I don't see why only the propertied class should vote, since political decisions tend to favor that class 90% of the time anyway. The rest of us need an oar in the water too, and, every once in a while, we should take the opportunity to throw the greedy out on their respective ears.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#46
Kinser,

I concur with what you are saying about socialism. Even though Thatcher did have a point with that, due to the Tories pretty much gutting the entire industrial sector, it actually ended up leading to more socialism down the road with Thatcher's conservatives actually encouraging all of those unemployed factory workers and coal miners onto state benefits in order to off set any major drag down to poverty levels. Tony Blair helped expand on this so really capitalism itself led to more socialism here down the road....

As for Russia being the new policeman, I agree right now that despite Putin and the government wanting to make Russian great again, the Russian youth are still in love with the West and obsessed about getting the democracy working and the economy sorted out. So I think after Putin, the days of Russian adventurism are going to come to a standstill. But if Europe is on the verge of turning Islamic or a huge major interstate war breaks out there, Russia will step in and take over America's role because of the fear of another German invasion.

Nothing anytime soon of course but down the pipeline, yes...

Good to hear America's millennials are not all left wing. I thought like 90 percent of them were in love with the whole AOC crowd. But you have to confess, the majority of them are liberal and not at all conservative in terms of social values. Maybe on economics thinks differ but still.

Just how many of them support Trumpian values I have no idea but I suspect it's not a huge group. 

Kinser, I have a question. With your great crisis saeculum, are you saying that this will be 80 years of continued Western decline? I was expecting the West to end rather quickly like the former Communist bloc but I presume you are looking at a more longer term decline lasting at least four generations?

Also in your next 4T predictions, I hope you didn't put the lazy option of the U.S Vs China because compared to today, honestly, I think later on this century China is going to start to decline and replaced by new powers. Not sure who yet but I've never believed China to be a long term superpower and there are new upcoming powers on the horizon.
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#47
(05-18-2020, 06:59 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 08:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 07:41 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Bob we've had this discussion before.  You are a Whig Historian and as such fall subject to the facilities they are susceptible to.  I'm sure that had Hitler won the war you'd have argued that the Jew Bolsheviks and or Jew Capitalists would have had to go too.

Nope.  That's part of your fantasies.  I have for a long time favored the three Enlightenment virtues of human rights, democracy and equality.  [understatement]  Hitler didn't exemplify those qualities.  [/understatement]  As soon as the adjective Jew was applied, you go against equality specifically.

Hardly you have admitted in the past to being a Whig historian.  That isn't a fantasy.  

Lining me up with Hitler sure is.

If you plan on staying on the left much longer Bob you should get used to being compared to Hitler. Mind you, your friends just love me considering I'm a homophobic, racist, white nationalist. According to them. Also Ben Shapiro, a conservative Jew, is a Neo-Nazi. You really should get out of the house more and actually talk with the people you claim to agree with.

If you do you will have two choices: Conclude that they are idiots leading the country to ruin should they ever get power, or agree with them completely on whatever the Party Line Du Jour happens to be. There is no third option for these people. Oh and if you pick the former you will be branded an enemy. Extra enemy points if you belong to an identity that they claim ownership over such as being black or gay.

And No I don't give two shits what you see yourself as. What matters is how your faction behaves not what you the lone individual think. It isn't like you're on the Right or even a Libertarian where it would be different.

Quote:
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I'm fine with human rights so long as it is limited to life, liberty and the pursuit of property.

You forgot the right to kill grandma.

Come to think of it, if you are advocating killing people for financial benefit, isn't opening up with the right to life inconsistent? You should likely drop that one.
[/quote]

Funny I don't think I've sent any grandmas with Covid back to their nursing homes to infect the whole dorm (wing, whatever). Andrew Cuomo has though.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#48
(05-19-2020, 12:33 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-18-2020, 08:49 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-18-2020, 05:54 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-16-2020, 10:30 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: … As for the whole "progressivism is the way to go thing" for lack of a better term, you'll find the Boomers on here, and in particular the Blue ones, are blind to the fact that what is and is not progressive is determined after the fact.  History is after all written by the victors.

This is true, but what transformational agenda does the Trump/GOP have on tap?  It looks awfully corrupt and revanchist to me. Can that be defined as any form of progress? I say no … hell no!

Trump's agenda and faction is American Nationalism.  This means controlling immigration, controlling trade and high tariffs.  Is it corrupt?  Probably.  Revanchist?  Not so much.  Unless you consider taking back premier place in the world's economy revenge.  American Nationalists aren't very interested in war in foreign countries, or foreigners in general for that matter.

One could call it isolationist, but isolationism is the opposite of revanchism.

No, Trump's policy preferences are essentially all about him, and his grievances. That's my basis for citing revanchism. Trump is always looking to advantage DJT at the expense of <insert the preferred villain and pettifog of the moment>.

So what you're saying is you're using a word and don't know the meaning of said word. I'm going to assume that you are simply a clueless boomer and didn't bother to look up a word you decided to use to make yourself appear smarter than you actually are. The result of course is you look foolish.

Protip--if you're unsure of anything Google That Shit. No Seriously...Google That Shit. All the cool kids are doing that these days. And why shouldn't they? With the interweb-tubes-thingy every public toilet may as well be the Library of Congress. There is no excuse for using a word that has a specific meaning in correctly. No excuse at all.

Unless of course your goal is to look like a fool. Then by all means carry on.

Quote:
Kinser Wrote:
(05-18-2020, 05:59 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: … Regarding democracy I'm fine with a republic having democratic institutions so long as those with the votes are those who pay the taxes.  Otherwise there will come a time when the unenlightened and and property-less will discover that they can vote themselves the property of others.

I'm fine with human rights so long as it is limited to life, liberty and the pursuit of property.

Wow! When you swing politically, its all the way.

Not hard when you realize that given universal suffrage the have-nots will eventually figure out a way to vote themselves the property of the haves.  Then you get Venezuela.  Since I'm not interested in the US becoming Venezuela Del Norte it is best to limit the franchise.  I figure we could probably swing property requirements though I'd prefer restricting the franchise to Veterans in the same vein of Heinlein's Starship Troopers.

H-m-m-m. Heinlein was a disabled Navy vet, and this brief period in his life had lasting impact on him. His politics, on the other hand, was mercurial, being a hard lefty Democrat at one point, and a hyper libertarian later on. That aside, I don't see why only the propertied class should vote, since political decisions tend to favor that class 90% of the time anyway. The rest of us need an oar in the water too, and, every once in a while, we should take the opportunity to throw the greedy out on their respective ears.

As I said I'd prefer to limit the franchise to Veterans. I highly recommend reading the book, or at the very very least watching the 1997 film. Though with the film you have to bear in mind that the directer didn't read the book and kinda went with a Nazi aesthetic because he thought it chic. Honestly it is rather unfortunate that Hitler had Hugo Boss and other top tier clothing designers in Germany to come up with uniforms for them. Say what you want about the Nazis they were fashionable.

You see I'm not interested in what the have-nots have to say. Not one bit. If they don't have then they need to go get and until they do I simply don't have time for them. But then again that might be the difference between a Prophet and a Nomad. There are "winners" and "losers" and I'm fine with that--my job is to make sure I'm not a "loser".
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#49
Last four Crisis eras:

2020 -- this one. American behavior has changed even before the election and has demonstrated (largely) that Americans are able of changing their ways and taking an economic hit just for survival. There will be a return to normality, but it will be a very different idea of "normal" in political reality and economic relationships. Trump is defeated or else he consolidates dictatorial power.

1944. Allied liberation of Rome. D-Day and effective departures of Romania and Finland from the Axis. If only the Stauffenberg plot had succeeded!

1864 -- Confederacy severed with Sherman's "March through Georgia", after which the Confederacy was doomed.

1778 -- Washington captures Philadelphia, unifying the rebelling colonies as a geographic entity
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#50
(05-19-2020, 01:25 PM)Isoko Wrote: Kinser,

I concur with what you are saying about socialism. Even though Thatcher did have a point with that, due to the Tories pretty much gutting the entire industrial sector, it actually ended up leading to more socialism down the road with Thatcher's conservatives actually encouraging all of those unemployed factory workers and coal miners onto state benefits in order to off set any major drag down to poverty levels. Tony Blair helped expand on this so really capitalism itself led to more socialism here down the road....

Perhaps. I'm not going to claim to have detailed information about British Political Economy of the time period. I honestly don't I'm going off of gut impressions of what I've read here and there on this case. Mostly because as an American I focus on America (and pretty much thing the rest of the world can go to hell--maybe some day I'll tell you about the five hour argument I had with my grandmother over isolationism and how FDR was the Devil). That being said, it still doesn't work that well. Having spoken to ex-pats from Britain their NHS which does cover everyone does so relatively poorly with long wait times for vital medical procedures. The same is true for the Canadian system. The Europeans might be slightly better at other entitlement programs but personally I'd favor abolishing all of those unless the states want to run it.

I'd much prefer that the federal government spend its time trying to assist the economy to create and protect well paying jobs so people can work and do for themselves productively.

Quote:As for Russia being the new policeman, I agree right now that despite Putin and the government wanting to make Russian great again, the Russian youth are still in love with the West and obsessed

Some are. Some aren't. I've been to Russia many times. I love the country and speak the language. Lets just say once you leave Moskva and Leningrad (I refuse to call it St. Petersburg, and the Oblast is still called Leningrad Oblast) the gopniks are less concerned with the west and more concerned with semichki, squatting and drinking kvass. They are in short doing their own thing apart from the West like Russians have pretty much always done. The obsession with the West has been historically and is today a disease of the elite and those who wish they were the elite.

Quote: about getting the democracy working and the economy sorted out. So I think after Putin, the days of Russian adventurism are going to come to a standstill.

Russia will be entering the core of its 2T in a few years, and then it will have its 3T. Their last 4T lasting from 1982ish to 2001ish. Naturally external adventurism will abate some, but most Russians consider Belarus and Ukraine to be part of their country. It is almost as if Texas and California decided to break away (and succeeded) and they kinda want them back. Belarus might fold back into Russia and is very close to Russia regardless. Ukraine is a bit more dynamic.

Quote: But if Europe is on the verge of turning Islamic

Once the welfare states in Europe fail the Muslims will flee. They are essentially living on state hand outs. Much like many immigrants in the US are. It is one of the reasons why I don't think Europe will turn Islamic unless three or four generations pass before the collapse of the EU and the Welfare states. I don't think that will happen. The Idenitarian Right in Europe will either destroy the welfare states to be rid of what they consider to be (and are) parasites or those welfare states will collapse from their own internal contradictions.

Quote:or a huge major interstate war breaks out there, Russia will step in and take over America's role because of the fear of another German invasion.

Germany has a fourth rate army so an invasion by them could probably be swatted off by a couple dozen babushki with their rolling pins. Indeed one of the reasons why Germany in particular is pushing for "greater integration" and an EU army is so they can keep up on their welfare statism while forcing Poland, Hungry and etc to pay the military burden.

Personally I think the US would be better off scrapping NATO and if the Russians want to be Europe's policeman then let them, though I doubt they have the strength to. Mind you as I said before I focus on America and think the rest of the world can pretty much rot in a cess pit filled with its own effluence for all I care.

Quote:Nothing anytime soon of course but down the pipeline, yes...

I doubt that. It would require Germany to completely rebuild their military forces, an expense that they can't afford if they plan on importing millions of "New Germans" to suck up the welfare Euros, rape German women, and create havoc in the streets--Er I mean culturally enrich Germany.

Quote:Good to hear America's millennials are not all left wing. I thought like 90 percent of them were in love with the whole AOC crowd. But you have to confess, the majority of them are liberal and not at all conservative in terms of social values. Maybe on economics thinks differ but still.

I would suggest taking whatever the likes of CNN, MSNBC, and sundry say with a grain of salt. The left wing media wants to believe that most Millies are on board with socialism and AOC and her idiocy and etc. And quite a lot are, and they are extremely loud about it. However, most would just like to get married and get a house, and maybe a car and a couple kids would be nice too.

Like Russia, America is very different once you get away from New York, Chicago and Los Angeles.

Quote:Just how many of them support Trumpian values I have no idea but I suspect it's not a huge group. 

Not many if you frame it around Trump. Frame it around nationalism and economic security and well you

Quote:Kinser, I have a question. With your great crisis saeculum, are you saying that this will be 80 years of continued Western decline? I was expecting the West to end rather quickly like the former Communist bloc but I presume you are looking at a more longer term decline lasting at least four generations?

I laid out my theory in greater detail in the thread called "Wheels within Wheels"

http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-712.html

Suffice it to say that yes I do believe that the next saeculum will be as I put it:

myself in Wheels within wheels Wrote:Each Mega-Saeculum is composed of four distinct parts. These parts are of course saecula and they follow a distinct pattern.

A Mega-Resolution/Exposition (or a first turning--commonly called a High amongst students of S&H) [It closes out the previous Mega-Saeculum and sets up the following Mega-Saeculum]

A Mega-Awakening (or a second turning) [in a traditional plot timeline as you'd learn about in school this can be likened to rising action or rather the start of the rising action--the ideas of the mega-saeculum are usually birthed in this part]

A Mega-Unraveling (or third turning) [A stasis point among two or more main ideas that are relevant to the mega-saeculum for example parliamentarian-ism verses divine right of kings]

A Mega-Crisis (or fourth turning) [a period of rapidly rising action until a climax point is hit and then rapidly falling action to the next Mega-Resolution/Exposition]

As such I believe that the coming saeculum will be one of one crisis leading to the next until either war or a cascading systems failure results in the destruction of the current order. The last time this happened was during the Revolutionary/Napoleonic Saeculum, wherein Feudalism was destroyed in Europe and in the Americas the colonies split off from Europe entirely with the exception of Canada (which is probably due to being both sparsely populated and remote at the time). It should be noted that I include Latin America doing this around 1820 as well as the US. It seems that Latin America is perhaps behind the US an entire turning but more or less on the same trajectory.

Given the close assiotations between the United States and Ancient Rome I expect this to play out like a modern version of the Crisis of the Third Century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_...rd_Century

I do not rule out a rapid collapse of the West however, but I do not think it likely. The Eastern Bloc was imposed by the Soviet Union on Eastern Europe and the USSR itself collapsed due to its own internal contradictions. Also I consider the Russian "Soviet Saeculum" (1922-2001) to be a Mega-1T. Prior to then Russia was a pre-industrial society and had only recently abolished serfdom.

Quote:Also in your next 4T predictions, I hope you didn't put the lazy option of the U.S Vs China because compared to today, honestly, I think later on this century China is going to start to decline and replaced by new powers. Not sure who yet but I've never believed China to be a long term superpower and there are new upcoming powers on the horizon.

I believe that the People's Republic of China is an existential threat to the United States for at least the remainder of this turning (which is due to end according to my calculations between 2024-2030 [I usually date the 4T start in 2006 due to Katrina but others disagree with me]). They are a trade threat certainly and they are attempting to flex their military muscle but I also think that they will start a period of decline soon. I doubt they will reach the levels of degradation that they experienced under the late Qing dynasty but they are due to start their Mega-2T soon and this will eventually lead to the removal of the CCP from power. Also given the One Child Policy their population will begin aging rapidly before they can get their birth rates back up to replacement levels which is one of the reasons for the their decline during their Mega-2T.

If I had to guess at possible super powers I'd say India, though they are not likely to be hostile to the Anglosphere, they could be hostile to other powers regionally and globally. And it wouldn't be the first time India was a superpower either. Both India and China have been superpowers in their own rights at least a couple times. Of course they also have traditionally also had the largest populations, particularly in pre-industrial history.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#51
(05-19-2020, 07:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Last four Crisis eras:

2020 -- this one. American behavior has changed even before the election and has demonstrated (largely) that Americans are able of changing their ways and taking an economic hit just for survival. There will be a return to normality, but it will be a very different idea of "normal" in political reality and economic relationships. Trump is defeated or else he consolidates dictatorial power.
Rolleyes
Good thing Trump as God-Emperor has been a meme since 2016 then.
Cool
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#52
(05-19-2020, 08:40 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Some are.  Some aren't.  I've been to Russia many times.  I love the country and speak the language.  Lets just say once you leave Moskva and Leningrad (I refuse to call it St. Petersburg, and the Oblast is still called Leningrad Oblast) the gopniks are less concerned with the west and more concerned with semichki, squatting and drinking kvass.  They are in short doing their own thing apart from the West like Russians have pretty much always done.  The obsession with the West has been historically and is today a disease of the elite and those who wish they were the elite.  

I won't argue with your characterization of the Russian people, but the elites were shaped by Genghis Kahn's invasion, and Napoleon's, and Wilhelm's, and Hitler's.  Just because you are paranoid, doesn't mean somebody isn't out to get you.  Talk about never again.  Between drinking bouts, I would be surprised if even the general population has not forgotten the history. The old Soviet glorification of the Great Patriotic War should guarantee that.

In many ways they have responded to invasion by becoming like the invaders.  They try to rule as an invader might, as Genghis did, by exploiting the population.  It was set deeply by the history, inflicted considerable if sometimes misdirected paranoia, and infected how Lenin and Stalin ruled.  I see an echo of this invade or be invaded mentality in how Putin behaves even today.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#53
(05-19-2020, 08:47 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-19-2020, 07:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Last four Crisis eras:

2020 -- this one. American behavior has changed even before the election and has demonstrated (largely) that Americans are able of changing their ways and taking an economic hit just for survival. There will be a return to normality, but it will be a very different idea of "normal" in political reality and economic relationships. Trump is defeated or else he consolidates dictatorial power.
Rolleyes
Good thing Trump as God-Emperor has been a meme since 2016 then.
Cool

Let's put it this way: the American Revolution and the Constitutional struggle (Crisis of 1780) decided whether the colonies from Maine to Georgia would be free and that there would be a meaningful United States of America. 

The Civil War (Crisis of 1860) decided whether slavery would thrive or perish.

The Great Depression and World War II (Crisis of 1940) decided whether the US would be a Great Power or a shattered wreck under a totalitarian nightmare (fascist or Stalinist).

This Crisis (Crisis of 2020) will decide whether America can thwart an authoritarian trend toward a plutocratic society with a thin and hypocritical veneer of Christian piety (think of a Christian version of Iran or of the People's Republic of China, but in our case the Founding Fathers, Lincoln, and FDR either gutted or co-opted. We have a cultural struggle this time, and we had better solve this one the right way. 

A hint: Karl Rogue has just come to the aid of Donald Judas Iscariot Trump.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#54
(05-20-2020, 02:38 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Let's put it this way: the American Revolution and the Constitutional struggle (Crisis of 1780) decided whether the colonies from Maine to Georgia would be free and that there would be a meaningful United States of America. 

The Civil War (Crisis of 1860) decided whether slavery would thrive or perish.

The Great Depression and World War II (Crisis of 1940) decided whether the US would be a Great Power or a shattered wreck under a totalitarian nightmare (fascist or Stalinist).

Yep.  The pattern in America is that for three plus turnings the slavery compromises favor a lack of change, but you more than make up for it with a major upheaval in the heart of a crisis.  It is just a bad time to be tied to the establishment. You might move from being a major mover and shaker to immigrating to Canada. If cotton used to be king, it is suddenly a lonely stepchild.  We'll lock down the changed society in its new condition come the high.

I still worry that we are not likely to see a trigger in every crisis.  As once in a while you have to reset the culture, what happens in a crisis period where there is no trigger is a problem.  

Not the problem this time around the turnings though.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
Reply
#55
(05-19-2020, 10:29 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-19-2020, 08:40 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Some are.  Some aren't.  I've been to Russia many times.  I love the country and speak the language.  Lets just say once you leave Moskva and Leningrad (I refuse to call it St. Petersburg, and the Oblast is still called Leningrad Oblast) the gopniks are less concerned with the west and more concerned with semichki, squatting and drinking kvass.  They are in short doing their own thing apart from the West like Russians have pretty much always done.  The obsession with the West has been historically and is today a disease of the elite and those who wish they were the elite.  

I won't argue with your characterization of the Russian people, but the elites were shaped by Genghis Kahn's invasion, and Napoleon's, and Wilhelm's, and Hitler's.  Just because you are paranoid, doesn't mean somebody isn't out to get you.  Talk about never again.  Between drinking bouts, I would be surprised if even the general population has not forgotten the history.  The old Soviet glorification of the Great Patriotic War should guarantee that.

In many ways they have responded to invasion by becoming like the invaders.  They try to rule as an invader might, as Genghis did, by exploiting the population.  It was set deeply by the history, inflicted considerable if sometimes misdirected paranoia, and infected how Lenin and Stalin ruled.  I see an echo of this invade or be invaded mentality in how Putin behaves even today.

I won't deny that tendency within the elite of Russian society.  I won't deny that the Great Patriotic War still serves as a major cultural and historical milestone (for lack of a better term) in Russia.  Indeed one of the most recent soap operas I've been watching is about the Night Witches.  Soviet Female fighter pilots during the GPW.

Conversely, there is in Russia a reluctance to involve themselves with Europe, apart from trade, unless Europe involves itself first.  The obsession with the West is now and historically has been a phenomenon among the elite.  The people themselves are more concerned with what comes out of the East.  The whole point of having the Largest Country on Earth is not just resources, but to contain the Mongol Threat.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#56
(05-20-2020, 09:16 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I won't deny that tendency within the elite of Russian society.  I won't deny that the Great Patriotic War still serves as a major cultural and historical milestone (for lack of a better term) in Russia.  Indeed one of the most recent soap operas I've been watching is about the Night Witches.  Soviet Female fighter pilots during the GPW.

Nitpick. The Night Witches flew the Polikarpov Po-2 aircraft, a wood and canvas biplane similar to the American Stearman. It was originally designed in 1928 as a trainer. The planes were simple, reliable, and capable of carrying a couple of bombs for use as a night bomber, assuming they didn't carry luxury items like radios or parachutes. They used to cut the engine down to idle and silently glide in on the attack. The Germans thought the noise no greater than a witch on a broomstick. I'm not trying to diminish their deeds. Indeed they apparently did very well with a minimum of equipment. But they were glide bombing pilots, not fighters.

Just wondered if the TV show switched their roles. Using the Po-2 as a fighter would be very impressive in World War II. Their big thing was that they went so slow that the fighters had trouble making attack runs.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
Reply
#57
(05-19-2020, 07:39 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: As I said I'd prefer to limit the franchise to Veterans.  I highly recommend reading the book, or at the very very least watching the 1997 film.  Though with the film you have to bear in mind that the directer didn't read the book and kinda went with a Nazi aesthetic because he thought it chic.  Honestly it is rather unfortunate that Hitler had Hugo Boss and other top tier clothing designers in Germany to come up with uniforms for them.  Say what you want about the Nazis they were fashionable.

You see I'm not interested in what the have-nots have to say.  Not one bit.  If they don't have then they need to go get and until they do I simply don't have time for them.  But then again that might be the difference between a Prophet and a Nomad.  There are "winners" and "losers" and I'm fine with that--my job is to make sure I'm not a "loser".

I read almost the entire Heinlein catalogue, though his story telling far exceeded his philosophical bent. To my mind, his most original character was Lazarus Long, though even that story got a bit old in the later works, as you might expect. And let's be honest about rights, if we're to have them at all. Proles have no rights. Proles can't vote. If you wish to make service a requirement to vote, then make it mandatory.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#58
(05-18-2020, 06:59 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 08:06 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 07:41 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Bob we've had this discussion before.  You are a Whig Historian and as such fall subject to the facilities they are susceptible to.  I'm sure that had Hitler won the war you'd have argued that the Jew Bolsheviks and or Jew Capitalists would have had to go too.

Nope.  That's part of your fantasies.  I have for a long time favored the three Enlightenment virtues of human rights, democracy and equality.  [understatement]  Hitler didn't exemplify those qualities.  [/understatement]  As soon as the adjective Jew was applied, you go against equality specifically.

Hardly you have admitted in the past to being a Whig historian.  That isn't a fantasy.  

Lining me up with Hitler sure is.

(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I'm fine with human rights so long as it is limited to life, liberty and the pursuit of property.

You forgot the right to kill grandma.

Come to think of it, if you are advocating killing people for financial benefit, isn't opening up with the right to life inconsistent?  You should likely drop that one.

Ah, Kinser must have gotten some property in the days since he was a Bolshevik. One's fortunes do often affect one's philosophy or ideology. At least he admits his greed and lack of compassion, unlike most other neo-liberals that just hide behind slogans of "freedom" and don't admit anything. But I see he still doesn't admit his lack of logical ability.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#59
Give a Marxist some property and privilege and he becomes a capitalist swine. This is true whether the Marxist gets an inheritance or a nice position within a "socialist" state. .

Of course, a healthy capitalist society teaches people of economic advantage to not be ruthless, insensitive, rapacious, self-indulgent swine. I suppose that that was one objective behind the liberal arts -- to show callow youth that there is more to life than material indulgence, mass entertainment, ostentatious display, bureaucratic power, sex, and hallucinogens.

I suppose that one need not be a Marxist to become a capitalist swine. Contemporary capitalism in America does very well in making swine out of people... just look at Donald Trump!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#60
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: You have admitted in the past to being a Whig historian.  That isn't a fantasy.  

I have three ways of looking at history, Ages, Turnings and Civilization.  Ages assumes progress.  They go from Hunter Gatherer to Agricultural to Industrial to Information.  Turnings as originally presented focused on the American series of crisis, how with Turnings you move from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial Age.  For three plus turnings the slavery compromises hold the culture fairly firm, then you hit the heart of the crisis and wham.  Thus, they too show a form of progress.  The Civilizations just allow various parts of the world to do this at a different pace.

Some try to deny or stop the progress.  Often times during the unravelling it seemed they had succeeded.  Without the ability to look back at previous unravellings, previous times of hedonism, stagnation, politics, compromises, debate and acrimony, it would be hard to see how things were going to break loose.

In many ways the bug is painful.  But in certain ways I am glad the crisis heart is finally here.  I get to sit back in my enforced isolation and watch the people who have fought change not know what hit them.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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