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"Climax" year of each turning
#61
(05-21-2020, 07:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: You have admitted in the past to being a Whig historian.  That isn't a fantasy.  

I have three ways of looking at history, Ages, Turnings and Civilization.  Ages assumes progress.  They go from Hunter Gatherer to Agricultural to Industrial to Information.  Turnings as originally presented focused on the American series of crisis, how with Turnings you move from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial Age.  For three plus turnings the slavery compromises hold the culture fairly firm, then you hit the heart of the crisis and wham.  Thus, they too show a form of progress.  The Civilizations just allow various parts of the world to do this at a different pace.

The transformation from the Industrial Age (when people can create more happiness by supplying more stuff) to the Information Age has not been easy for people who were prepared for the industrial world. Industrial workers are trained to badly fit information-era norms. To do well they will need to be craftsmen and even artists. The industrial age depends upon experiences and knowledge, with the material basis relatively cheap. 

In education alone we will need great changes in method. Rote repetition will become irrelevant except on a few things (like arithmetic tables). The ability to get and use information will matter far more than possessing information. We will need to develop healthy habits in deciding what information we want.  People will still need moral judgment that allows them to see fascist material (whether Nazis, Klan, or ISIS) as disgusting. Propaganda works most effectively on people if they are of limited learning typically at or near the elementary level; beyond that dangerous level or learning people are more able to read between the lines.

But having an Information Age is not enough. People will accept it much more readily if they can not only use it, but prosper from it. It will be necessary that people be able to participate in it  for personal gain just as easily in West Virginia as in the San Francisco Bay Area. The ability of elites to keep the boon from employment in the Information Age in a few places of extreme rents is one sure way to deny most people any ability to participate in it while those who participate in it pay premium rents to slumlords.     


Quote:Some try to deny or stop the progress.  Often times during the unraveling it seemed they had succeeded.  Without the ability to look back at previous unraveling eras, previous times of hedonism, stagnation, politics, compromises, debate and acrimony, it would be hard to see how things were going to break loose.

Repeated or catastrophic failure has a way of breaking some very bad habits. OK -- hedonism is a suitable reward for doing the necessary but unpleasant work that makes the economic order tick. Debates done well lead to viable compromises in politics instead of continuing acrimony and stagnation.   Lately, as one would expect in an over-extended Unraveling, politics becomes a struggle to protect oneself if the loser or a means of consolidating economic and bureaucratic power if one is the winner. A neat division between winners and losers creates long-term instability.    

Quote:In many ways the bug is painful.  But in certain ways I am glad the crisis heart is finally here.  I get to sit back in my enforced isolation and watch the people who have fought change not know what hit them.

We are finding out and even rediscovering a few things the hard way. That is how Crisis eras work. Some basic realities that we try to evade keep tugging at us until we give in.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#62
(05-21-2020, 10:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-21-2020, 07:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: You have admitted in the past to being a Whig historian.  That isn't a fantasy.  

I have three ways of looking at history, Ages, Turnings and Civilization.  Ages assumes progress.  They go from Hunter Gatherer to Agricultural to Industrial to Information.  Turnings as originally presented focused on the American series of crisis, how with Turnings you move from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial Age.  For three plus turnings the slavery compromises hold the culture fairly firm, then you hit the heart of the crisis and wham.  Thus, they too show a form of progress.  The Civilizations just allow various parts of the world to do this at a different pace.

The transformation from the Industrial Age (when people can create more happiness by supplying more stuff) to the Information Age has not been easy for people who were prepared for the industrial world. Industrial workers are trained to badly fit information-era norms. To do well they will need to be craftsmen and even artists. The industrial age depends upon experiences and knowledge, with the material basis relatively cheap. 

In education alone we will need great changes in method. Rote repetition will become irrelevant except on a few things (like arithmetic tables). The ability to get and use information will matter far more than possessing information. We will need to develop healthy habits in deciding what information we want.  People will still need moral judgment that allows them to see fascist material (whether Nazis, Klan, or ISIS) as disgusting. Propaganda works most effectively on people if they are of limited learning typically at or near the elementary level; beyond that dangerous level or learning people are more able to read between the lines.

But having an Information Age is not enough. People will accept it much more readily if they can not only use it, but prosper from it. It will be necessary that people be able to participate in it  for personal gain just as easily in West Virginia as in the San Francisco Bay Area. The ability of elites to keep the boon from employment in the Information Age in a few places of extreme rents is one sure way to deny most people any ability to participate in it while those who participate in it pay premium rents to slumlords.     


Quote:Some try to deny or stop the progress.  Often times during the unraveling it seemed they had succeeded.  Without the ability to look back at previous unraveling eras, previous times of hedonism, stagnation, politics, compromises, debate and acrimony, it would be hard to see how things were going to break loose.

Repeated or catastrophic failure has a way of breaking some very bad habits. OK -- hedonism is a suitable reward for doing the necessary but unpleasant work that makes the economic order tick. Debates done well lead to viable compromises in politics instead of continuing acrimony and stagnation.   Lately, as one would expect in an over-extended Unraveling, politics becomes a struggle to protect oneself if the loser or a means of consolidating economic and bureaucratic power if one is the winner. A neat division between winners and losers creates long-term instability.    

Quote:In many ways the bug is painful.  But in certain ways I am glad the crisis heart is finally here.  I get to sit back in my enforced isolation and watch the people who have fought change not know what hit them.

We are finding out and even rediscovering a few things the hard way. That is how Crisis eras work. Some basic realities that we try to evade keep tugging at us until we give in.
Many here seem to associate the culture of hedonism as a 3T trait. I have more or less considered said culture to the 2T.  In many ways the last 2T was a wild and fun time. Yet for many the culture of sex, drugs and Rick 'n roll led to AIDS, addiction and hearing loss
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#63
(05-22-2020, 09:12 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: Many here seem to associate the culture of hedonism as a 3T trait. I have more or less considered said culture to the 2T.  In many ways the last 2T was a wild and fun time. Yet for many the culture of sex, drugs and Rick 'n roll led to AIDS, addiction and hearing loss

A fair observation. I would suggest both the 2T and 3T had hedonistic elements.

Come to think of it, the high had Elvis and Rock n Roll. The crisis was the heart of the swing years. Perhaps it is impossible to keep the young down? The difference is in materialism, how ready the adults are to focus on their own condition, to do more or less for "what you can do for your country."
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#64
(05-22-2020, 09:12 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: Many here seem to associate the culture of hedonism as a 3T trait. I have more or less considered said culture to the 2T.  In many ways the last 2T was a wild and fun time. Yet for many the culture of sex, drugs and Rick 'n roll led to AIDS, addiction and hearing loss

Isn't it a Dionysian trait? What does a typical Apollonian 3T look like? The 1920s were pretty hedonistic time as well, as a result of the WW1 shock.
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#65
(05-23-2020, 07:56 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(05-22-2020, 09:12 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: Many here seem to associate the culture of hedonism as a 3T trait. I have more or less considered said culture to the 2T.  In many ways the last 2T was a wild and fun time. Yet for many the culture of sex, drugs and Rick 'n roll led to AIDS, addiction and hearing loss

Isn't it a Dionysian trait? What does a typical Apollonian 3T look like? The 1920s were pretty hedonistic time as well, as a result of the WW1 shock.

The supreme irony here is that it was also the decade when Prohibition was in effect for its entirety, which in theory is one of if not the ultimate deterrent to hedonism. Perhaps the reputation as a hedonistic time is because it was the first decade in which it was acceptable for a woman to show off her legs. But it would still be a couple of decades yet before they started showing their feet more and the pinup came into vogue. The pinup culture seems almost obsolete today.  A few years ago the Miss America pageant chose to delete the swimsuit competition even though you can see plenty of women in swimsuits at any public beach or pool. The pageant began in 1921, which means it will mark its centennial next year. Although it began as a beauty pageant, it always took more than just a pretty face to win the crown.  Is the pageant something that has outlived it’s usefulness?
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#66
(05-22-2020, 09:12 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-21-2020, 10:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-21-2020, 07:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: You have admitted in the past to being a Whig historian.  That isn't a fantasy.  

I have three ways of looking at history, Ages, Turnings and Civilization.  Ages assumes progress.  They go from Hunter Gatherer to Agricultural to Industrial to Information.  Turnings as originally presented focused on the American series of crisis, how with Turnings you move from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial Age.  For three plus turnings the slavery compromises hold the culture fairly firm, then you hit the heart of the crisis and wham.  Thus, they too show a form of progress.  The Civilizations just allow various parts of the world to do this at a different pace.

The transformation from the Industrial Age (when people can create more happiness by supplying more stuff) to the Information Age has not been easy for people who were prepared for the industrial world. Industrial workers are trained to badly fit information-era norms. To do well they will need to be craftsmen and even artists. The industrial age depends upon experiences and knowledge, with the material basis relatively cheap. 

In education alone we will need great changes in method. Rote repetition will become irrelevant except on a few things (like arithmetic tables). The ability to get and use information will matter far more than possessing information. We will need to develop healthy habits in deciding what information we want.  People will still need moral judgment that allows them to see fascist material (whether Nazis, Klan, or ISIS) as disgusting. Propaganda works most effectively on people if they are of limited learning typically at or near the elementary level; beyond that dangerous level or learning people are more able to read between the lines.

But having an Information Age is not enough. People will accept it much more readily if they can not only use it, but prosper from it. It will be necessary that people be able to participate in it  for personal gain just as easily in West Virginia as in the San Francisco Bay Area. The ability of elites to keep the boon from employment in the Information Age in a few places of extreme rents is one sure way to deny most people any ability to participate in it while those who participate in it pay premium rents to slumlords.     


Quote:Some try to deny or stop the progress.  Often times during the unraveling it seemed they had succeeded.  Without the ability to look back at previous unraveling eras, previous times of hedonism, stagnation, politics, compromises, debate and acrimony, it would be hard to see how things were going to break loose.

Repeated or catastrophic failure has a way of breaking some very bad habits. OK -- hedonism is a suitable reward for doing the necessary but unpleasant work that makes the economic order tick. Debates done well lead to viable compromises in politics instead of continuing acrimony and stagnation.   Lately, as one would expect in an over-extended Unraveling, politics becomes a struggle to protect oneself if the loser or a means of consolidating economic and bureaucratic power if one is the winner. A neat division between winners and losers creates long-term instability.    

Quote:In many ways the bug is painful.  But in certain ways I am glad the crisis heart is finally here.  I get to sit back in my enforced isolation and watch the people who have fought change not know what hit them.

We are finding out and even rediscovering a few things the hard way. That is how Crisis eras work. Some basic realities that we try to evade keep tugging at us until we give in.

Many here seem to associate the culture of hedonism as a 3T trait. I have more or less considered said culture to the 2T.  In many ways the last 2T was a wild and fun time. Yet for many the culture of sex, drugs and Rock 'n roll led to AIDS, addiction and hearing loss

Hedonism loses any pretense of having any high purpose around the 3T/4T cusp. The pattern shows even in popular music. Popular music for Boomers often pretended to connect with the aether of ideas; X'ers would have none of that. One might have a question of nobility or its lack -- or, on the other hand, the integrity of non-pretense versus pretense. I remember seeing a column by the (late, GI) Herb Caen of the San Francisco Chronicle lamenting the sheer awfulness of (X) taste in pop music in the late 1970's -- then-called "bubble-gum rock". The criticism was not solely by Boomers. Herb Caen was very much a liberal. This said, disco, the commercialized fad that young Boomers (when some of us really were not yet fully adult) were supposed to absorb, laid a huge egg. 

Some of us Boomers got fossilized tastes in 'golden oldies' or R&B. Some, like me, ended up with music from a fossilized time (A hint: Dmitri Shostakovich died in 1975). Some went gospel.  Far more went country. This said, country music is generally light on any social or philosophical content, and that may be just the thing for people of reactionary ideology.   

I remember hearing a song in which a young man stated that all he cared about was "sex-'n'-drugs-'n'-rock&roll", which is about as shallow an outlook in life as I can imagine.  To be sure "sex and drugs and Bach" would get one into the same trouble -- around 1980 that could be AIDS. 

As someone on the autistic spectrum I have little tolerance for loud noise (I had to get away from a house when the dog barked too vehemently and loud -- and I love dogs, many of whom understand me more sympathetically than I do!)... and I listen to music at rather low volumes. One of the good things about autistic tendencies is that one has no proclivity to use drugs. My drinking limit is one even if I am overweight. I don't like a buzz.   

Here is how I see it: some people are more cautious about COVID-19, and they will be slower to do much of what they used to enjoy doing. But they will do that again. For me two of my favorite places for spending time -- bookstores and libraries -- will be among the last places to open safely. People are discovering that much of what they have been doing as habit isn't so fun as they thought. I'm not going to disparage any activity, and I am not going to say "not even...". Many practices will die and so will the venues that allowed them.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#67
(05-23-2020, 10:31 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-23-2020, 07:56 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(05-22-2020, 09:12 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: Many here seem to associate the culture of hedonism as a 3T trait. I have more or less considered said culture to the 2T.  In many ways the last 2T was a wild and fun time. Yet for many the culture of sex, drugs and Rick 'n roll led to AIDS, addiction and hearing loss

Isn't it a Dionysian trait? What does a typical Apollonian 3T look like? The 1920s were pretty hedonistic time as well, as a result of the WW1 shock.

The supreme irony here is that it was also the decade when Prohibition was in effect for its entirety, which in theory is one of if not the ultimate deterrent to hedonism. Perhaps the reputation as a hedonistic time is because it was the first decade in which it was acceptable for a woman to show off her legs. But it would still be a couple of decades yet before they started showing their feet more and the pinup came into vogue. The pinup culture seems almost obsolete today.  A few years ago the Miss America pageant chose to delete the swimsuit competition even though you can see plenty of women in swimsuits at any public beach or pool. The pageant began in 1921, which means it will mark its centennial next year. Although it began as a beauty pageant, it always took more than just a pretty face to win the crown.  Is the pageant something that has outlived it’s usefulness?

In Europe the 1920s were way more hedonistic than in America, but their Missionary awakening was more Dionysian. Decadents instead of social purity movements.

Beauty pageants may have outlived their usefulness because there is (still) so much nudity online. Online nudity might however be purged during the 1T, or the 2T if it's similar to America's Missionary awakening.
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#68
(06-01-2020, 03:44 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(05-23-2020, 10:31 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-23-2020, 07:56 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(05-22-2020, 09:12 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: Many here seem to associate the culture of hedonism as a 3T trait. I have more or less considered said culture to the 2T.  In many ways the last 2T was a wild and fun time. Yet for many the culture of sex, drugs and Rick 'n roll led to AIDS, addiction and hearing loss

Isn't it a Dionysian trait? What does a typical Apollonian 3T look like? The 1920s were pretty hedonistic time as well, as a result of the WW1 shock.

The supreme irony here is that it was also the decade when Prohibition was in effect for its entirety, which in theory is one of if not the ultimate deterrent to hedonism. Perhaps the reputation as a hedonistic time is because it was the first decade in which it was acceptable for a woman to show off her legs. But it would still be a couple of decades yet before they started showing their feet more and the pinup came into vogue. The pinup culture seems almost obsolete today.  A few years ago the Miss America pageant chose to delete the swimsuit competition even though you can see plenty of women in swimsuits at any public beach or pool. The pageant began in 1921, which means it will mark its centennial next year. Although it began as a beauty pageant, it always took more than just a pretty face to win the crown.  Is the pageant something that has outlived it’s usefulness?

In Europe the 1920s were way more hedonistic than in America, but their Missionary awakening was more Dionysian. Decadents instead of social purity movements.

Beauty pageants may have outlived their usefulness because there is (still) so much nudity online. Online nudity might however be purged during the 1T, or the 2T if it's similar to America's Missionary awakening.

But beauty pageants were never about nudity. They are and were about overall beauty, and usually took a lot more than just a pretty face.  Are you saying that online nudity and porn could be to the upcoming 1T what Communism was to the last one? But if it follows the Missionary example then the big crackdown wouldn't occur until the next 3T, which is when Prohibition kicked in. But didn't some of this already occur with the shutdown of the original Backpage site two years ago and the outrage over human trafficking?
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#69
(06-01-2020, 01:13 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: But beauty pageants were never about nudity. They are and were about overall beauty, and usually took a lot more than just a pretty face.

A lot of men enjoyed them because of the bikini part ;P

Quote:Are you saying that online nudity and porn could be to the upcoming 1T what Communism was to the last one?

Feminists already hate it, and they are a part of the Inclusivist camp which will probably win the 4T. So it is indeed possible. There are also many online groups of young men like Art of Manliness, NoFap or Wet Dream Forum, which pride themselves on not watching porn.

https://www.artofmanliness.com/?s=porn

Quote:But if it follows the Missionary example then the big crackdown wouldn't occur until the next 3T, which is when Prohibition kicked in. But didn't some of this already occur with the shutdown of the original Backpage site two years ago and the outrage over human trafficking?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_purity_movement

It started in the 1860s, so the equivalent should start in the upcoming 1T. The 3T can be indeed the time when neo-Missionaries start having children and don't want them to be exposed to all this crap.
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#70
Regarding this 4T.....

Nine eleven briefly brought the USA together; people were uniting against an attack from without. But people came together for only one particular issue-terrorism.

The underlying culture wars had not been resolved; people were distracted from them for a short time.

BTW, I have to say that it is too early to determine the Crisis Climax. For all we know there could be a nuclear armageddon next year. We won't be able to say for sure what the Climax is until we begin the transition into 1T.
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#71
(06-02-2020, 07:56 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Regarding this 4T.....

Nine eleven briefly brought the USA together; people were uniting against an attack from without.  But people came together for only one particular issue-terrorism.  

The underlying culture wars had not been resolved; people were distracted from them for a short time.

BTW, I have to say that it is too early to determine the Crisis Climax.  For all we know there could be a nuclear armageddon next year.  We won't be able to say for sure what the Climax is until we begin the transition into 1T.

As chaotic as the Trump Presidency has been to date, looking ahead even a few months is an exercise in futility.  Let's walk that walk first.  The 4T climax and 1T entry will get here in due course, and, as noted, it's undefined just what that might mean.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#72
(06-02-2020, 07:56 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Regarding this 4T.....

Nine eleven briefly brought the USA together; people were uniting against an attack from without.  But people came together for only one particular issue-terrorism.  

The underlying culture wars had not been resolved; people were distracted from them for a short time.

BTW, I have to say that it is too early to determine the Crisis Climax.  For all we know there could be a nuclear armageddon next year.  We won't be able to say for sure what the Climax is until we begin the transition into 1T.

While we were united for a bit, there was shortly the ‘cut and run’ against ’stay the course’ debate.  We were almost refighting the Vietnam War, asking if we should have fought it to a conclusion or if it was hopeless.  The real question was if we should have tried to change the culture by force.  The result was a real reluctance to put troops on the ground.

If the central crisis issue is the bug, the climax will involve a vaccine or effective therapy.  But that by most accounts is far enough away to convert most to policy that is scientific, that you can’t solve problems by ignoring them, and should cure at least for a time the political fantasy world that Fox is so instrumental in creating.  It will give Democrats the White House and possibly the Congress for a time.  I think the Republican Party will be thoroughly discredited.  With the blues in control they might be able to implement the blue agenda.

If a big agenda item is correcting the mistakes Trump made, I hope for once there is lots of overcorrection.  If we needed good healthcare, perhaps we could get great healthcare.  If we needed a willingness to solve problems, let’s solve problems.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#73
(06-02-2020, 09:41 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If the central crisis issue is the bug, the climax will involve a vaccine or effective therapy.  But that by most accounts is far enough away to convert most to policy that is scientific, that you can’t solve problems by ignoring them, and should cure at least for a time the political fantasy world that Fox is so instrumental in creating.  It will give Democrats the White House and possibly the Congress for a time.  I think the Republican Party will be thoroughly discredited.  With the blues in control they might be able to implement the blue agenda.

If a big agenda item is correcting the mistakes Trump made, I hope for once there is lots of overcorrection.  If we needed good healthcare, perhaps we could get great healthcare.  If we needed a willingness to solve problems, let’s solve problems.

There is zero chance that the central crisis issue will be the coronavirus.  A disease which kills off old and sick people, and about 1 in 10,000 young people, is not a central crisis issue.

The economic collapse started by our response to the virus might be the central issue... for a while.  Then we'll have bigger problems.
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#74
(06-02-2020, 02:17 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:
(06-02-2020, 09:41 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If the central crisis issue is the bug, the climax will involve a vaccine or effective therapy.  But that by most accounts is far enough away to convert most to policy that is scientific, that you can’t solve problems by ignoring them, and should cure at least for a time the political fantasy world that Fox is so instrumental in creating.  It will give Democrats the White House and possibly the Congress for a time.  I think the Republican Party will be thoroughly discredited.  With the blues in control they might be able to implement the blue agenda.

If a big agenda item is correcting the mistakes Trump made, I hope for once there is lots of overcorrection.  If we needed good healthcare, perhaps we could get great healthcare.  If we needed a willingness to solve problems, let’s solve problems.

There is zero chance that the central crisis issue will be the coronavirus.  A disease which kills off old and sick people, and about 1 in 10,000 young people, is not a central crisis issue.

The economic collapse started by our response to the virus might be the central issue... for a while.  Then we'll have bigger problems.

Value economics over live a little? Might think different things important? Why was it now that the governors who value life are more favored than the happy talkers?
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
Reply
#75
(06-01-2020, 01:13 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(06-01-2020, 03:44 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(05-23-2020, 10:31 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-23-2020, 07:56 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(05-22-2020, 09:12 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: Many here seem to associate the culture of hedonism as a 3T trait. I have more or less considered said culture to the 2T.  In many ways the last 2T was a wild and fun time. Yet for many the culture of sex, drugs and Rock 'n roll led to AIDS, addiction and hearing loss

Isn't it a Dionysian trait? What does a typical Apollonian 3T look like? The 1920s were pretty hedonistic time as well, as a result of the WW1 shock.

The supreme irony here is that it was also the decade when Prohibition was in effect for its entirety, which in theory is one of if not the ultimate deterrent to hedonism. Perhaps the reputation as a hedonistic time is because it was the first decade in which it was acceptable for a woman to show off her legs. But it would still be a couple of decades yet before they started showing their feet more and the pinup came into vogue. The pinup culture seems almost obsolete today.  A few years ago the Miss America pageant chose to delete the swimsuit competition even though you can see plenty of women in swimsuits at any public beach or pool. The pageant began in 1921, which means it will mark its centennial next year. Although it began as a beauty pageant, it always took more than just a pretty face to win the crown.  Is the pageant something that has outlived it’s usefulness?

In Europe the 1920s were way more hedonistic than in America, but their Missionary awakening was more Dionysian. Decadents instead of social purity movements.

Beauty pageants may have outlived their usefulness because there is (still) so much nudity online. Online nudity might however be purged during the 1T, or the 2T if it's similar to America's Missionary awakening.

But beauty pageants were never about nudity. They are and were about overall beauty, and usually took a lot more than just a pretty face.  Are you saying that online nudity and porn could be to the upcoming 1T what Communism was to the last one? But if it follows the Missionary example then the big crackdown wouldn't occur until the next 3T, which is when Prohibition kicked in. But didn't some of this already occur with the shutdown of the original Backpage site two years ago and the outrage over human trafficking?

It could be. Pornography is a poor substitute for romantic love. It does not belong in family life. Maybe frustrated singles might excuse it for themselves, but male users know enough to shut it off or close the computer window when 'conscience' walks by in the form of a girl or woman. I can easily see women insisting that men not bring it into the house, and not view it. It fosters cheating, and little more reliably rends marriage than does marital infidelity.

If I were a woman I would be incensed if my husband were looking at pictures of fully-clothed women, especially if they are overseas, and communicating suggestions of enchantment.

Human trafficking is of course a monstrous crime, a modern version of a slave trade. This time it is often about 

s-e-x

manifesting itself all too often in brothels, strip clubs, and 'massage parlors'. It is be so much the sex but instead the economic exploitation that is so abominable. If such activity involves people getting well paid for sex work, then the 'issue' is strictly extramarital sex. I have no desire to get into that discussion aside from saying that commercisl entities are becoming less tolerant. Truckers have been among the likeliest customers (reputedly people outside of a 500-mile radius if they have gone by highway... I am not sure if this applies to air travelers have often come to feel that they are in some comfort zone. Truckers are being told to stay clear of anyone either underage or sexually trafficked, as such can result in arrest... and the ways the laws are going, potential confiscation of truck and cargo. The "lot lizard" could become a thing of the past because a trucker from Cleveland knows that he will not get a slap on the wrist for consorting what proves to be an underage female in western Tennessee.    


........

The first Miss America contest was in 1920 and its first winner, Margaret Gorman, was born in 1905. An institution with that pedigree has some tradition attached and can outlast its first participants. Traditions allow institutions to redefine themselves.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#76
(06-02-2020, 09:31 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It could be. Pornography is a poor substitute for romantic love. It does not belong in family life. Maybe frustrated singles might excuse it for themselves, but male users know enough to shut it off or close the computer window when 'conscience' walks by in the form of a girl or woman. I can easily see women insisting that men not bring it into the house, and not view it. It fosters cheating, and little more reliably rends marriage than does marital infidelity.

Compulsive masturbation can lead to erectile dysfunction in men, and the content of porn itself to more demand for unorthodox forms of sexual activity, which can disgust the wife.

BTW similar arguments were used against homosexuality in Roman times, even before Christianity. Women were repelled by men coming to them after having anal intercourse with a boy slave.

Quote:It is be so much the sex but instead the economic exploitation that is so abominable.

Most prostitutes in the UK come from Romania, which is one of poorest countries on our continent. The supply of "voluntary" prostitutes doesn't match the demand, and the Romanians are often told they will be babysitters in Britain. Such lies don't belong in a humanist society.

To sum up, there are many rational arguments to support exclusive heterosexual relationships as a privileged form of sexual activity. This idea seems old-fashioned or mean in 2020, but will probably come back in the new saeculum.
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#77
(06-03-2020, 02:24 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(06-02-2020, 09:31 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It could be. Pornography is a poor substitute for romantic love. It does not belong in family life. Maybe frustrated singles might excuse it for themselves, but male users know enough to shut it off or close the computer window when 'conscience' walks by in the form of a girl or woman. I can easily see women insisting that men not bring it into the house, and not view it. It fosters cheating, and little more reliably rends marriage than does marital infidelity.

Compulsive masturbation can lead to erectile dysfunction in men, and the content of porn itself to more demand for unorthodox forms of sexual activity, which can disgust the wife.

BTW similar arguments were used against homosexuality in Roman times, even before Christianity. Women were repelled by men coming to them after having anal intercourse with a boy slave.

Quote:It is be so much the sex but instead the economic exploitation that is so abominable.

Most prostitutes in the UK come from Romania, which is one of poorest countries on our continent. The supply of "voluntary" prostitutes doesn't match the demand, and the Romanians are often told they will be babysitters in Britain. Such lies don't belong in a humanist society.

To sum up, there are many rational arguments to support exclusive heterosexual relationships as a privileged form of sexual activity. This idea seems old-fashioned or mean in 2020, but will probably come back in the new saeculum.

Homosexuality is what it is. It is not something to grow out of; it is not something to be converted from. It is built in, and the fantasy of "straightening a qu--r" that some women have is.. well, strictly a fantasy. I know that I am straight because ... I'm not going into any details."Sorry, I'm not interested" is as far as it goes.

I am no sexual therapist... but there is usually a narrow range of sexuality satisfying to most couples, straight or not. To insist on going beyond that is pointless. 

"You will be a waitress in a nice restaurant"... yeah, sure.  Or "you will be a store clerk and get paid well". Yeah, sure.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#78
(05-21-2020, 07:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(05-17-2020, 09:26 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: You have admitted in the past to being a Whig historian.  That isn't a fantasy.  

I have three ways of looking at history, Ages, Turnings and Civilization.  Ages assumes progress.  They go from Hunter Gatherer to Agricultural to Industrial to Information.  Turnings as originally presented focused on the American series of crisis, how with Turnings you move from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial Age.  For three plus turnings the slavery compromises hold the culture fairly firm, then you hit the heart of the crisis and wham.  Thus, they too show a form of progress.  The Civilizations just allow various parts of the world to do this at a different pace.

Some try to deny or stop the progress.  Often times during the unravelling it seemed they had succeeded.  Without the ability to look back at previous unravellings, previous times of hedonism, stagnation, politics, compromises, debate and acrimony, it would be hard to see how things were going to break loose.

In many ways the bug is painful.  But in certain ways I am glad the crisis heart is finally here.  I get to sit back in my enforced isolation and watch the people who have fought change not know what hit them.


In my own honesty, I think that the next Awakening is going to be more centre-right if anything. Birth rates are going down, immigration into Western societies is driving them apart and leftist values continually push the West down the Sodom and Gomorrah road. I think that the current millennials will defend the status quo but the next Awakening will see what is failing in society and attempt to rectify it in their own image.

The complete opposite I think is at stake for the eastern countries as their awakening seems to be focused on old school capitalism and human rights. I suspect China, Iran, Russia etc will go down more of a liberal path potentially.
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#79
(06-03-2020, 11:47 AM)Isoko Wrote: In my own honesty, I think that the next Awakening is going to be more centre-right if anything. Birth rates are going down, immigration into Western societies is driving them apart and leftist values continually push the West down the Sodom and Gomorrah road. I think that the current millennials will defend the status quo but the next Awakening will see what is failing in society and attempt to rectify it in their own image.

That’s the unravelling mindset, the hedonism. You care more about Sodom, Gomorrah and yourself than the community. I certainly won’t argue that we have not seen a good deal of that, but lately it comes more from the right than the left. They want go ignore problems and go back to the grand old party. Let the virus kill. Let the planet be destroyed. Let the bridges fail. Let's save taxes by supporting small government and party! Those aren't problems. They are all fake news and hoaxes. It is the left who says getting down to work and solving problems is necessary, and that get together and rebuild the country mood will be an element of the post crisis new normal.

Assuming the turnings turn, by the awakening the nomads will have just completed the high mentality of building infrastructure and stepping on the old values. If during the crisis the Democrats manage to push ecological responsibility and bridge repair, I don’t know what the new prophets will find to complain and protest about. However, I expect the economic fallout of the virus will leave the US with little choice but put ecology on the back burner. If so, the new prophets may become highly oriented towards ecology and be mad that the older generations that did not care about ruining the planet.

But things get fuzzy that far in the future. We have to resolve the crisis heart first. The bug, racial equality in policing and the economy seem to be hot issues. Will other problems seem important after the inauguration? When we see which problems the Democrats try to solve, and more importantly which problems they leave unsolved, we can try to predict what the new prophets will work themselves up about. What are the handful of problems that are the greatest issues confronting the culture?
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#80
Isoko ha ha. There has never been a "center-right awakening," and there won't be one this time. How ignorant of history he is.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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