COVID-19 is the perfect 4T event?

[User3451]

(06-02-2020, 10:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-02-2020, 09:11 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Interesting points, Bob Butler 54.  I recall a thread (but not the title) in the paleo 4T site which listed 4Ts for various countries.  There were a handful of 4Ts which had wars, but that apparently were not Crisis wars.  Perhaps a similar mechanism that like you described applied to those 4Ts.

Robert Hendrickson, Rector, Saint Philip’s Episcopal Church, Washington DC Wrote:This is an awful man, waving a book he hasn’t read, in front of a church he doesn’t attend, invoking laws he doesn’t understand, against fellow Americans he sees as enemies, wielding a military he dodged serving, to protect power he gained via accepting foreign interference, exploiting fear and anger he loves to stoke, after failing to address a pandemic he was warned about, and building it all on a bed of constant lies and childish inanity.

Over on the current event threads, I tried to work out a new Information Age pattern of what would happen if we went though a crisis generational line up without a trigger.  A while ago I dropped that, and assumed the virus was the trigger.  Perhaps it is a trigger light, that produces a crisis light or no crisis.  Time will tell.  

I do suspect that Trump will fit the pattern of the bad president that demonstrates that the old values don’t work anymore, akin to Buchanan and Hoover.  This could well shift us firmly to the new values.  If so, that will be crisis enough to traumatize the new silent generation, to have us reluctant to war again, to keep the cycles more or less as S&H saw them.  

But I also see the Consciousness Revolution as transformational, as changing society as only crises used to.  It was done then though protest and legislative change, not through a crisis war.  It was not a religious revival as earlier awakenings were.  It was far more about secular protest and politics.  It was different from the prior awakenings.

If we had no crisis, if the generation after the civics was not traumatized, if the problems that were argued about by the red and the blue were left hanging there, I’m not sure what would happen.  I was working towards the next group of prophets becoming the Green Generation, adapt ecological values, and the problems left unsolved by the nonexistent crisis could again be solved through protest and legislation, we could wind up with a new Information Age pattern.  The transformation would take place in the awakening primarily through legislation.

But then along came COVUS.  If not a crisis as spectacular as the US Civil War or World War II, it could be a sort of half crisis sufficient to make us sigh with relief after we solve it and generate a high.

When the COVID started to dominate, I saw the crisis issue being whether the virus was strong enough to force a scientific response.  The election was to be a referendum on whether the politicians were expected to honor the science.  Once the blues got in, they could do their whole agenda.

We then had the culture of racial police murders bringing in the possibility of culture change.  Is enough enough?  The referendum was on how to shift the culture of state approved killings into the police serving and protecting all.

On Maddow’s show tonight, the had the Episcopal bishop on, the head of the church that was used as a prop by Trump recently.  He naturally has a moral and religious slant on things, being a bishop and all.  The teachings of the Bible are to love one’s neighbor and to shun violence.  He made a case that this was a moral crisis, a battle for the soul of the nation.  It hardly mattered if you were Catholic, Protestant, Jew, Muslim or other, it was clear what was good and right.

Rachel didn’t have time to have an economist on, to talk about the recession going on depression which is also threating the nation.  You might add that to your list.

I don’t know if that is crisis enough for you.  At least all the issues line up fairly well.  It hardly matters if you are looking for renewed respect for science, renewed respect for racial relations, a recovered economy or renewed morals, the new values are clearly for all of the above.  And if the combination is not a full scale crisis by the standard of the Industrial Age, close enough.  It will keep the next generation traumatized, the next turning sort of a high, and the cycles limping along still close to the classic S&H Industrial Age pattern.

If not, if COVID is not a real trigger, if there is no other trigger, if the next generation is not traumatized, it all becomes rather a muddle.  I’m seeing our combined virus, police, moral and economic problems as quite enough crisis for me, though.

To paraphrase Dickens…  “More?  Oliver wants more?”  

(06-05-2020, 11:40 AM)Isoko Wrote: Bob,

To be honest, you cannot blame Trump for the covid response as all of the Western governments offered initially the same response. Originally they wanted to go for herd immunity but decided on a quarantine (which I think will prove in the long run to be ineffective) at the last minute. So I think blaming Trump is not quite fair in this regards.

As for Biden, honestly I'd prefer Trump over him because Biden is just a boring old man who is losing his mind. At least with Trump he is entertaining with his tweets.You never know, the American electorate night also think the same ala the silent majority.

Biden is definitley losing his mind. They are propping the guy up for five minute spotlights, but I'm rather certain he will not last through 2024.

Politics aside, Trump seems completely unhinged at this point. The man just had military come and and gas a crowd of peaceful protestors, including a couple of priests, in order to get some clownish photo op. He's being called out by just about everyone and apparently is even losing big chunks of his evangelical support.

I'm feeling very confident that Trump unravels at some point and Joe Biden could sleepwalk to victory without showing his face. The kind of old fashioned beatdown we haven't seen in my lifetime.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-05-2020, 11:40 AM)Isoko Wrote: Bob,

To be honest, you cannot blame Trump for the covid response as all of the Western governments offered initially the same response. Originally they wanted to go for herd immunity but decided on a quarantine (which I think will prove in the long run to be ineffective) at the last minute. So I think blaming Trump is not quite fair in this regards.

As for Biden, honestly I'd prefer Trump over him because Biden is just a boring old man who is losing his mind. At least with Trump he is entertaining with his tweets.You never know, the American electorate night also think the same ala the silent majority.

But he is sticking with the Happy Talk. A mistake I can forgive. Like, New York was looking at China when the bug came in from Europe. Sticking with a bad policy after it becomes obvious that it is the wrong policy is harder to forgive.

Agree that I am not particularly thrilled by Biden. We'll see who he picks for a VP.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-05-2020, 11:52 AM)User3451 Wrote: Biden is definitley losing his mind. They are propping the guy up for five minute spotlights, but I'm rather certain he will not last through 2024.

Politics aside, Trump seems completely unhinged at this point. The man just had military come and and gas a crowd of peaceful protestors, including a couple of priests, in order to get some clownish photo op. He's being called out by just about everyone and apparently is even losing big chunks of his evangelical support.

I'm feeling very confident that Trump unravels at some point and Joe Biden could sleepwalk to victory without showing his face. The kind of old fashioned beatdown we haven't seen in my lifetime.

Agree on the sleepwalk. The scary part is Trump unraveling even more. Isn't he crazy enough?

[User3451]

(06-05-2020, 01:02 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-05-2020, 11:52 AM)User3451 Wrote: Biden is definitley losing his mind. They are propping the guy up for five minute spotlights, but I'm rather certain he will not last through 2024.

Politics aside, Trump seems completely unhinged at this point. The man just had military come and and gas a crowd of peaceful protestors, including a couple of priests, in order to get some clownish photo op. He's being called out by just about everyone and apparently is even losing big chunks of his evangelical support.

I'm feeling very confident that Trump unravels at some point and Joe Biden could sleepwalk to victory without showing his face. The kind of old fashioned beatdown we haven't seen in my lifetime.

Agree on the sleepwalk.  The scary part is Trump unraveling even more.  Isn't he crazy enough?

I'm betting that Trump completely loses it at some point, lashes out, and does something unforgivable

The Republicans will cut him loose it some point, and he will be alone with his base, say 25% of the electorate

[Isoko]

Bob and User,

Honestly when it comes to Trump and his polling numbers, they seem to be where they were in 2016. The people who disapprove are the ones who are quite vocal about it. It's the silent majority we have to take  into consideration. 

They are going to be faced with a bumbling and deeply unpopular Joe Biden Vs Trump. If Trump restores law and order and Biden does something stupid like picking an incredibly SJW tier candidate for VP, I think that silent majority are going to hold their noses and turn out again in support of Trump. Better the devil you know scenario. 

Had the Dems picked a very and likeable candidate then Trump would be easily out of office. However it's Joe Biden and that silent majority is still very cheesed off with the left so I think Donald is getting another term if I'm honest.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-05-2020, 02:47 PM)Isoko Wrote: They are going to be faced with a bumbling and deeply unpopular Joe Biden Vs Trump. If Trump restores law and order and Biden does something stupid like picking an incredibly SJW tier candidate for VP, I think that silent majority are going to hold their noses and turn out again in support of Trump. Better the devil you know scenario.

It is almost traditional to predict victory for one's own side.  With the see saw, the partisans on either side have taken turns being wrong.

Biden ended up on top of a crowded heap.  He's not as unpopular as you seem to think.  You are going with the image of him the red media is trying to construct.  Trump is not as unpopular as he is apt to be by November.  He is walking away from the virus, and committing to using force rather than trying to give what the people are demanding.  Seen the KKK or the Neo Nazis counter demonstrating in favor of racism?

We'll see.

[Ragnarök_62]

(06-05-2020, 02:47 PM)Isoko Wrote: Bob and User,

Honestly when it comes to Trump and his polling numbers, they seem to be where they were in 2016. The people who disapprove are the ones who are quite vocal about it. It's the silent majority we have to take  into consideration. 

They are going to be faced with a bumbling and deeply unpopular Joe Biden Vs Trump. If Trump restores law and order and Biden does something stupid like picking an incredibly SJW tier candidate for VP, I think that silent majority are going to hold their noses and turn out again in support of Trump. Better the devil you know scenario. 

Had the Dems picked a very and likeable candidate then Trump would be easily out of office. However it's Joe Biden and that silent majority is still very cheesed off with the left so I think Donald is getting another term if I'm honest.

Yup, nothing but bad choices. So should we choose arsenic or cyanide?



This diagram shows how bad Trump has/is handling the Corona virus situation.

Here's something from Moon of Alabama

Choices

Quote:Secretary Pompeo @SecPompeo - 12:16 UTC · Jul 5, 2019
Today, #Venezuela’s Independence Day, we are reminded of the country’s prosperous past – and the future the Venezuelan people deserve. The U.S. stands with @jguaido, @AsambleaVE, and all Venezuelans yearning for a return to democracy and a brighter future. #EstamosUnidosVE

---

Quote:Joe Biden @JoeBiden - 21:10 UTC · Jul 5, 2020
On this Venezuelan Independence Day, my thoughts are with Venezuelans who continue to work tirelessly for the cause of democracy. It’s time for free and fair elections so that the Venezuelan people can turn the page on the corrupt and repressive Maduro regime.

So, as far as being utterly clueless about US problems, they both bitch about Maduro. I mean, so what? The US is an oligarchy, not a Democracy. It's time to STFU and mind our own business.!

[Eric the Green]

I agree with them about Maduro. But yes, Trump's focus is not on his job. Biden's is pretty good for now....

These days, the people tend to vote themselves into oligarchy and/or tyranny. Witness Poland today. Witness the USA in 2016 and 2000.

Often times the oligarchy/tyranny cheats. But often enough, cheating only happens because the peoples' votes are close enough so the outcome can be cheated. Witness 2000. 537 votes was not so hard to get through cheating.

In Venezuela, Maduro just jails his opponents. In the US, voting rolls are purged. Whatever works for the tyrants.

Good chart, Rags.

[pbrower2a]

(06-05-2020, 02:47 PM)Isoko Wrote: Bob and User,

Honestly when it comes to Trump and his polling numbers, they seem to be where they were in 2016. The people who disapprove are the ones who are quite vocal about it. It's the silent majority we have to take  into consideration.

The silent majority can be scared. COVID-19 scares the Hell out of me. 

Voters over 65 went for Trump in Florida in 2016. They are turning against him now.  

Quote:They are going to be faced with a bumbling and deeply unpopular Joe Biden Vs Trump. If Trump restores law and order and Biden does something stupid like picking an incredibly SJW tier candidate for VP, I think that silent majority are going to hold their noses and turn out again in support of Trump. Better the devil you know scenario.

 
Trump's idea of 'law-and-order' has brutality as its core. Brutal law enforcement has never proved more effective than smart law enforcement. As an example, San Jose, California has automatic readers of license plates in patrol cars. It's great for detecting stolen cars. Drive a stolen car in San Jose and you will be busted. Because auto theft is a gateway into other crimes, early detection of car thieves can thwart some criminal tendencies.   

Quote:Had the Dems picked a very and likeable candidate then Trump would be easily out of office. However it's Joe Biden and that silent majority is still very cheesed off with the left so I think Donald is getting another term if I'm honest.

Trump is erratic, corrupt, and cruel. He bungled the response to COVID-19 badly enough that I would shed no tears if he were charged with negligent homicide.

[Eric the Green]

(06-05-2020, 02:47 PM)Isoko Wrote: Bob and User,

Honestly when it comes to Trump and his polling numbers, they seem to be where they were in 2016. The people who disapprove are the ones who are quite vocal about it. It's the silent majority we have to take  into consideration. 

They are going to be faced with a bumbling and deeply unpopular Joe Biden Vs Trump. If Trump restores law and order and Biden does something stupid like picking an incredibly SJW tier candidate for VP, I think that silent majority are going to hold their noses and turn out again in support of Trump. Better the devil you know scenario. 

Had the Dems picked a very and likeable candidate then Trump would be easily out of office. However it's Joe Biden and that silent majority is still very cheesed off with the left so I think Donald is getting another term if I'm honest.

Trump is a talented demagogue who is an effective and skilled liar and used-car salesman. But the American people are not always so easily fooled as 46% of them were in 2016. There was never a silent majority for him. He squeaked through because of our outdated electoral college, conceived to keep the slave states in the union. It is still doing that.

Biden is not far below Trump in native candidate talent, whereas Hillary was a weak and unpopular candidate. Biden will do better. He is at least congenial and can be dynamic, despite his garbles and stutters. 

Trump is trying the "law and order" rant that Nixon used to appeal to his "silent majority" to first get elected in 1968. But this time law and order has already been restored, while the disorder that Trump himself has created gets worse and worse, and he has already gone through several watergates whereas Nixon's was pretty much hidden until after his re-election. Trump is now thoroughly exposed to all as a sociopath without principle. The only reason he has even 40% support now is that the USA is split into 2 tribes, and all that the "red" tribe cares about is that Trump supports their policies of low taxes, laissez faire for business, bans on abortions, bans on immigrants and easy access to guns. As long as their dear leader supports these things, up to 40% won't give a damn about how much trouble he creates for the country, or how outrageous or undemocratic and unconstitutional his behavior is.

The problem is not who the Dems picked. They picked possibly the most likable qualified candidate among those who stepped up to run. A few others who might have stepped up are more likeable. The trouble is not that the Dems didn't pick a likeable candidate in 2020. The problem is that the most likeable candidates didn't run.

But if Biden picks Susan Rice as VP, then the Dems will have a likeable and capable candidate for the next election. If he doesn't, then their only chance will probably be with one of the other likeable candidates who refused to run in 2020. Top of that list is Mitch Landrieu. Biden might pick him for a cabinet position, I have heard. That might give him a chance in 2024.

2024 might turn out to be even more crucial than 2020. The fourth turning will not be over, and we may be on the verge of civil war plus more foreign war. That's why the VP choice is more crucial than most people think. Biden is very likely only good for one term, and may not be re-elected if he runs.

If the candidate horoscope scores are close (i.e. Warren), or if the incumbent party's candidate's score is too low (i.e. Harris), the challenging party candidate is favored. If Biden just chooses Harris or Warren because they gained some popularity and name recognition by running in 2020, the Republicans will have a good shot at getting back in in 2024 and ruining the country at the end of the Crisis.

"honestly I'd prefer Trump over him because Biden is just a boring old man who is losing his mind. At least with Trump he is entertaining..."

Trump is more entertaining. It's also more entertaining to watch an airplane crash than a report by Fauci on the virus. America's news media just loves to entertain us, and that's why they loved Trump in 2016.

Trump may not be losing his mind, but he had no mind to lose.

More entertaining...

[Ragnarök_62]

(07-13-2020, 10:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I agree with them about Maduro. But yes, Trump's focus is not on his job. Biden's is pretty good for now....

These days, the people tend to vote themselves into oligarchy and/or tyranny. Witness Poland today. Witness the USA in 2016 and 2000.

Often times the oligarchy/tyranny cheats. But often enough, cheating only happens because the peoples' votes are close enough so the outcome can be cheated. Witness 2000. 537 votes was not so hard to get through cheating.

In Venezuela, Maduro just jails his opponents. In the US, voting rolls are purged. Whatever works for the tyrants.

Good chart, Rags.

OK. I really have a distaste for obvious hypocrisy. Of course any country which is not a threat to the US, like Venezuela should be left alone. These stupid sanctions we bandy about only hurt the populations. The proper action is to do nothing, and if we don't like country X, then just don't trade with them or dish out foreign aid. The other problem is neither of them is supporting Medicare for all. Team D hands out a few crumbs to the working/middle class, while team R is all about arbeit macht frei. Folks who have pre existing conditions should be paid to say home while our virus policy is basically herd immunity.  "Herd" is correct since team R thinks folks who get a paycheck are "herd" animals. Example, Trump makes meat packing plants "strategic while doing zilch, nada, nunca, null.nil for folks who work there. With all that said, I'll take the Zombie over the Mad Man.  What a shitty choice.

[Eric the Green]

(07-13-2020, 10:44 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(07-13-2020, 10:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I agree with them about Maduro. But yes, Trump's focus is not on his job. Biden's is pretty good for now....

These days, the people tend to vote themselves into oligarchy and/or tyranny. Witness Poland today. Witness the USA in 2016 and 2000.

Often times the oligarchy/tyranny cheats. But often enough, cheating only happens because the peoples' votes are close enough so the outcome can be cheated. Witness 2000. 537 votes was not so hard to get through cheating.

In Venezuela, Maduro just jails his opponents. In the US, voting rolls are purged. Whatever works for the tyrants.

Good chart, Rags.

OK. I really have a distaste for obvious hypocrisy. Of course any country which is not a threat to the US, like Venezuela should be left alone. These stupid sanctions we bandy about only hurt the populations. The proper action is to do nothing, and if we don't like country X, then just don't trade with them or dish out foreign aid. The other problem is neither of them is supporting Medicare for all. Team D hands out a few crumbs to the working/middle class, while team R is all about arbeit macht frei. Folks who have pre existing conditions should be paid to stay home while our virus policy is basically herd immunity.  "Herd" is correct since team R thinks folks who get a paycheck are "herd" animals. Example, Trump makes meat packing plants "strategic while doing zilch, nada, nunca, null.nil for folks who work there. With all that said, I'll take the Zombie over the Mad Man.  What a shitty choice.

Zombie over the Mad Man, ha ha. I think the public option that Biden wants is much better than nothing, but unless we get a Democratic senate willing to bash through the filibuster, we won't even get that. We didn't even get the public option through a 60-vote Democratic majority Senate in 2009.

The Mad Man only cares about boosting his poll numbers, which he thinks getting the economy going will do. He doesn't care about the people, except his own oligarchy class.