Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Eric the Green]

On you tube we can easily see the Meet the Press video on Trump's internal polls

[pbrower2a]

Approve 43%
Disapprove 55%
---Net result: Disapprove +12

Gallup
Jun 3-16, 2019
1,015 Adults
https://news.gallup.com/poll/258359/trum...-june.aspx

[pbrower2a]

AP/NORC. National. Trump thinks that because the economy is humming along he should win in a landslide.



Note that disapproval is characteristically shown on the left side of the bar in the graph and approval on the right.

[pbrower2a]

It's part of the electorate, one becoming increasingly influential. Much of the generational trend in America  is the rising number of Hispanics on matters other than politics. This large and diverse group is reshaping politics and culture. But this thread is about voting, and here is material on the Hispanic vote:

So how did the debates go among Hispanics?


Before the debate -- after the debate, among los Hispanos.


Kamala Harris gained 16%; Julian Castro gained 12%. 


Para Univision -- text in Spanish

[pbrower2a]

Note: Kamala Harris is not Hispanic.

[pbrower2a]

[Eric the Green]

That is so funny it belongs on the let's make fun of Trump thread

[pbrower2a]

FoX News so manipulates news coverage that it distorts what its viewers can know. This is a totalitarian news source in a country without a totalitarian government. I have called it "GOP Pravda".

[David Horn]

(07-09-2019, 01:01 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: FoX News so manipulates news coverage that it distorts what its viewers can know. This is a totalitarian news source in a country without a totalitarian government. I have called it "GOP Pravda".

A case in point: polling shows that 42% of the population are aware of accusations by women that Joe Biden made them uncomfortable by touching them.  By contrast, 15% are aware that Donald Trump has credibly been accused of sexual assault in a Bergdorf-Goodman dressing by a noted female author.

[pbrower2a]

The telling point: Donald Trump cannot crack 41% against someone whom few Americans know. Donald Trump is the highest-profile American now, except perhaps for Barack Obama. Pit him against a high-profile athlete, let us say Houston Astros' pitcher Justin Verlander (who is an unlikely opponent -- Verlander's father-in-law is a high-profile Republican politician, and he has a gigantic contract to throw a baseball)... and the future Hall of Fame pitcher Verlander wins decisively against Trump.

What is so significant about the 41%? That is what he gets against practically anyone against whom he polls. That is also the share of the vote that Jimmy Carter got in 1980.

...................................

I write this before I see any polls that come out after the exposure of President Trump's pervert buddy Jeffrey Epstein, whose private jet I call sarcastically the "Lolita Express". If you do not understand the reference, it is to the Vladimir Nabokov novel Lolita in which a twelve-year-old girl is the object of sexual obsession of a fifty-something creep. The Feds have found some interesting material in Jeffrey Epstein's mansion, including some apparently-illicit photos.

I am going to avoid telling whether the creepy Humbert Humbert gets Lolita, as saying so creates a spoiler. I expect the legal process to do its work in Jeffrey Epstein, and you will not need any novel to read the result.

[pbrower2a]

Three states that President Trump really must win:

FLORIDA

A poll by PPP commissioned by the League of Conservation Voters on one of the states most vulnerable to climatic disasters. Florida stands to get longer, hotter summers with high humidity  (see above). Trump approval is at 45 with disapproval at 50, and people would vote for the Democratic nominee 51-45  over Trump. The President can hardly win without Florida, as every one of his losses and Florida would put the Democrat at 261 electoral votes. The only state other than Florida that he won by 10% or less that he could also get away with losing is Iowa, which has only six electoral votes.  All other states that Trump won by less than 10% have anywhere from 10 (Wisconsin) to 20 (Pennsylvania) electoral votes.

President Trump has an execrable record on the environment, to put it mildly. Floridians consider his environmental record appalling (37% approve, 51% disapprove); they recognize global warming as a threat.  They want clean and renewable energy and they want to rescind the President's leniency on pollution. 


Just read the PDF Almost all that you saw above is analysis and my bias.

Georgia, PPP:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?

45% approve, 49% disapprove

Q2 Generally speaking if the election for President was today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or his Democratic opponent?

46% Donald Trump 50% the Democratic opponent

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-c...esults.pdf

North Carolina, PPP:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?

46% approve, 48% disapprove
 
Q2 Generally speaking if the election for President was today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or his Democratic opponent?

Donald Trump 44%,  the Democratic nominee 49%

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-c...esults.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Ohio.

Quote:...Buckeye voters still give Trump a negative 43 - 52 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 43 - 54 percent score in a June 13, 2018 Quinnipiac University poll.

Quote:Former Vice President Joseph Biden leads President Donald Trump 50 - 42 percent in the critical swing state of Ohio, the only leading Democratic candidate to top the Republican incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The other leading Democratic contenders each are locked in a dead heat with President Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:

46 percent for Trump to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 45 percent;
Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
44 - 44 percent between Trump and California Sen. Kamala Harris;
44 - 44 percent between Trump and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg;
44 percent for Trump to 43 percent for New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.

Women, black voters and independent voters give Biden his lead in the matchup with Trump. Biden leads 53 - 40 percent among women, as men are split with 46 percent for Biden and 45 percent for Trump. White voters are divided, with 48 percent for Trump and 45 percent for Biden. Black voters go Democratic 84 - 8 percent.

Independent voters go to Biden 55 - 32 percent. Republicans back Trump 86 - 10 percent as Biden leads 96 - 2 percent among Democrats.

"Former Vice President Joseph Biden calls himself a blue-collar guy. With Ohio certainly a blue-collar state, it is no surprise he is the Democrat who runs best against President Donald Trump and is solidly ahead in the Democratic primary in the Buckeye State," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Biden runs best against President Trump in every Quinnipiac University state poll so far. To get reelected, Trump will need to win the industrial Midwest. Ohio certainly is key to that plan."

https://poll.qu.edu/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=3633

Trump cannot crack 46% against anyone. Ohio will be close in 2020, but I can say the same with Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. Biden wins Ohio outright, and the difference between Biden and the others looks largely to be name recognition.

I'm guessing that Elizabeth Warren may be too patrician in appeal for Ohio, but not by much if Trump mucks up.

Things are bad for Trump winning re-election when Texas is iffy and implies 400 electoral votes for the Democrat. Ohio implies something between 315 and 375 electoral votes for the Democrat.

Magellan Strategies, Colorado: "likely voters" (whatever that means at this stage)


Democratic voters have a slight edge in voter intensity heading into the 2020 elections, though Republicans and unaffiliated voters show a high level of interest as well.

Quote:Currently, Colorado voters prefer Democrats to have control of Congress by a 10-point margin, 47% to 37%, over Republicans.

A majority of voters, 57%, disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, compared to only 39% who approve of the job he is doing.

President Trump trails a generic Democratic Party candidate by 12 points, 44% to 32% in a 2020 ballot test, with 15% of voters choosing some other candidate and 8% being undecided.

Governor Jared Polis currently has a +12% job approval rating as 49% approve of the job he is doing, 37% disapprove and 14% are unsure.

https://magellanstrategies.com/magellan-...20-voters/

More evidence that Colorado is spiraling out of reach for Trump... and probably Senator Corey Gardner as well.

[pbrower2a]

Cross-posted in Leip's Election Atlas... the two largest states in electoral votes.  

Quote:California-PPIC
https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/...y-2019.pdf

Trump approval sits at 32%-62% (-30)

Trump is also underwater in every region of the state including the inland (-18%)

No surprise here.

Quote:Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

(electric eel -- a shocker!)

It could be that Texas is becoming closer to the USA as a whole in its political orientation. I have seen plenty of polls in which Texas is basically even in approval and disapproval, but unless Trump shtick has recently become unusually offensive to Texas sensibilities, I find this one hard to believe. If you dislike this university poll (as it comes from a college within the well-regarded University of Texas system), then wait for another.  



Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

...................................................................................................

We my be seeing the collapse of a Presidency before our eyes. Donald Trump has had none of the usual preparation for the Presidency; he has no idea of what the powers and limitations are of the Presidency; he surrounds himself with yes-men incapable of telling him to back off when disaster looms; he expresses himself in stream-of-consciousness thought; he treats decorum as a damnable constraint to his effectiveness. His complete lack of a moral compass makes all of his political dealings quid pro quo propositions.

The vote shares that he projects to get against even relatively-unknown political figures (and even people not in the political arena) is consistently lower than his approval ratings.

Do I believe the big splotch of deep red in the middle of the lower tier of US states? I am shocked. On the other hand I see no indication that Donald Trump is a good cultural match for Texas. He is the New Yorker that people love to hate, the sort who does not recognize that his shtick offends. It is much the same in Michigan, which is culturally similar to Upstate New York because it was heavily settled from New York, as it is in Texas.

[pbrower2a]

---

IBD/TIPP (monthly), July 25-Aug. 1, 902 adults

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+7)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.

This is from Investors' Business Daily.









Ugly!

https://www.investors.com/politics/ibdti...f-country/

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult: net approval, July 2019



Net approval for Trump

+10 or higher
+5 to +9
+2 to +4
+1 to -1 (white)
-2 to -4
-5 to -9
-10 or higher

If you are a Trump supporter and think that he can still win in 2020, then please explain why you think he can.

[pbrower2a]

NBC, Wall Street Journal (8/10-8/14)

Strong approval 29%
Lesser approval 14%
Strong disapproval 46%
Lesser disapproval 9%

approve on the President's handling of the economy 49% -- disapprove 46%

(comment: this has been his strong suit, and it is weakening! -- PB)

...Do you worry about another mass shooting

very worried 55%
fairly worried 13%
only slightly worried 31%
not really worried 18%

(comment: the President does not reassure us well about basic safety -- PB)

Free trade good 64%
free trade bad 27%

(comment: the President is out of touch with Americans on this issue -- PB)

On guns :

Americans are for background checks (89%), red-flag laws allowing law enforcement to take guns away from people posing threats to themselves or others (76%), voluntary buy-backs of unwanted guns (75%), an assault-weapons ban (62%), but less supportive of a ban on handguns (25%).

(comment: the President is out of touch with Americans on this issue -- PB)

approve or disapprove of the President's handling of mass shootings

approve 36% disapprove 52%

To Trump or not to Trump --

definitely for 29%
probably for 11%
probably the Democrat 11%
definitely the Democrat 41%

(comment: 40-51? perhaps only coincidentally, that is how Carter did in the popular vote against Ronald Reagan in 1980 -- PB).

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/...-Poll.html

Four others:

Pew research:

Pew Research, July 22-Aug. 4, 4175 adults

Approve 40
Disapprove 59

No change from their previous poll, Apr. 29-May 13

Gallup:

Gallup, Aug. 1-14, 1522 adults (2-week change)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

On issues:

Economy 53/46
Education 44/50
Foreign affairs 41/57
Race relations 34/64

FoX News (FoX News may be an awful source of news, but FoX News polls are objective):

date=1565820764 uid=3132]
Fox News, Aug. 11-13, 1013 RV (3-week change)

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+7)

The Economist/YouGov:


The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 10-13, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Generic D 42 (+1), Trump 35 (-1)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Generic D 50 (+2), Trump 39 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 38 (nc)

Ipsos/Reuters:

Ipsos Core Political Tracker (weekly), Aug. 12-13, 1116 adults including 980 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

...does anyone think that he wins with these numbers?

[Hintergrund]

As long as his "Approve" %s don't fall below 30% or so, don't bother me. 'Cause before that, nothing's gonna happen.

[pbrower2a]

(08-19-2019, 08:03 PM)Hintergrund Wrote: As long as his "Approve" %s don't fall below 30% or so, don't bother me. 'Cause before that, nothing's gonna happen.

Indeed, nothing will happen before the 2020 election. Trump is beyond guidance that could change his ways. 

Because much of the margin in the popular vote in 2016 for Hillary Clinton came from a small number of medium-to-giant states (especially New York and California), Trump can still win only 45% of the popular vote and win. The States elect the President, and the People do not. 

But this caveat fails to recognize that 

(1) Trump is not keeping states that he barely lost within range of him picking them off
(2) the three states that he most barely won (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) are spiraling out of reach
(3) if Wisconsin does not get him, Arizona will -- and I saw a poll by a pollster that usually gives sunny views of Trump give him a disapproval rating of 52%
(4) although Trump keeps has base intact by doing his worst to people who were never going to vote for him anyway, that will not be enough. Goldwater and McGovern both energized their bases -- they just did not win the possible swing voters, and 
(5) there is no evidence that Trump is able to win the same shaky voters that he got in 2016.

Even Obama was in a hole at times in 2011 -- but never that bad; besides, Obama is a far craftier politician than Trump. Although Democrats would fare best with another Obama-like candidate in competence and character, they do not need someone that good to defeat Trump.

[Hintergrund]

He can still win if his opponent is even worse.

[pbrower2a]

Like this?

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

AP is really cautious.