I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Mikebert]

Consider the generations as commonly asserted today:

1946-1964 Boomers
1965-1980 GenX
1981-1996 Millennials
1997-2012 GenZ

The start of GenX implies that the 4T started a few years later, 911 is a popular choice so lets go with that. This establishes the more recent four turnings span 72 years, giving a turning/generation length of 18 years.

The S&H theory states that the cause of a new turning is the appearance of a generational constellation a few years earlier. With 18 year generations/phases of life the Boomer-Xer-Millennial constellation happened approximately 54, 36, 18 and 0 years after the start of the four generations above: 2000, 2001, 1999, 1997 giving 1999 as the consensus date for the constellation, Two years later we have 911 and the start of the 4T.

We can do the same by adding 54, 36 and 18 years on the the starts of the bottom three generations to give dates of 2019, 2017, 2015, giving a consensus date of 2017 for the next constellation. This means we will see the 1T staring about now. Alternatively we can add 18 years to 2001 to 72 years to 1946 to get 2019, or 2018.  They all agree the 4T, as identified by the existing generations, is probably over.

I don't think anyone here thinks we are now in a 1T. Now we can also establish a 4T by looking at events. People have done that, and come up with 2008 as a start date. But this is TWELVE years after the start of GenZ and so violates the generational constellation mechanism. Now you can say, well the new adaptives didn't start being born until much later. But then you are putting young adults who identify as not millennials into the millennial category. On what basis do you assign their generational identity? Wouldn't that be up to them?

Once we proceeded far enough into the new millennial that the babies born around when the T4T site was young had grown old enough to establish their own generational identity that does not comport with the S&H generational scheme, the facial validity the S&H theory of how generations cause the turnings was invalidated.

There is simply no way to square this circle. This does not mean their cycle ideas are necessarily invalid, just the link of the cycle to generations.

[Marc Lamb]

Frankly I think the big elephant in this "Generational Theory" room is a flawed consensus among you all is that a 4T somehow represents a "regeneration" of sorts, where a solid majority gets on the same page and attacks troubling issues in a singular mind.

Of course this was the case in 1933 Germany, right after FDR and the Democrat Party crushed Hoover & the Republicans in November, 1932.

But this was not the case in 1860, nor in 1776. Not even close. Not even remotely close. Many votes in those days were case in musket balls with lots of blood.

Only a sober look back at FDR's America in the 1930s, without the blinders of Democrat Party hackery, can reveal how closely Democrats & Republicans pols in this country attempted to mirror Hitler's Germany (perhaps, as one commentator called the New Deal "without the blackshirts").

Thank God, those attempts failed. Largely due the Founder's collective wisdom in writing the U.S. Constitution, but also in We The People's respect for that document and the rule of law.

If today's Democrats believe the Constitution is hopelessly flawed and invalid, win an election with the aim to settle that score in an undemocratic fashion, don't be surprised that a unpredictable resistance results in votes being cast as they were in days of old.

[pbrower2a]

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: Frankly I think the big elephant in this "Generational Theory" room is a flawed consensus among you all is that a 4T somehow represents a "regeneration" of sorts, where a solid majority gets on the same page and attacks troubling issues in a singular mind.

Of course this was the case in 1933 Germany, right after FDR and the Democrat Party crushed Hoover & the Republicans in November, 1932.

To say that the Germans responded very differently from how Americans responded to the early stage of the Crisis of 1940 is to show that nations can respond very differently. Germany got its own sort of Regeneracy, one repudiating the recent past as completely as was possible, but also in the most perverse way possible. But the German Regeneracy was a false or fraudulent one, one based upon the acceptance of the worst characteristics of the national heritage. The slogan "Deutschland erwache!" (Germany awakes!) signifies the death of whatever traces of freedom Germans had developed over the centuries. If FDR found real scapegoats in criminal marauders who would never make a viable contribution to American life, Hitler found innocent people to sacrifice. German Jews (and other Jews who found themselves with the misfortune of coming under Nazi rule) would be lambs to the slaughter. In America, the creative talents of Jews would manifest themselves in the Golden Age of American Cinema. The Hollywood Jews recognized well that they could not make Americans not Jewish act like Jews, let alone accept Judaism, but they could create fit models for American life during a hard time of depression and in turn war. 

Nazi culture was blatant, but inept propaganda. America was suited to certain expressions of propaganda, most blatantly "whatever you do, do not be a criminal"... OK, parents were always telling kids this. The Hollywood Jews created a stock hero in, of all things, the Roman Catholic priest, to get this message out to Irish-American and Italian-American kids exposed to criminal subcultures -- reject those subcultures and do your civic duty, and things will turn out well enough for you. It was parallel to the Jewish experience, and something that Jews shared with Irish-Americans and Italian-Americans. It resonated well. I remember seeing a work on how the Jews really dominated Hollywood... but refuting the idea that Jewish cultural domination could be suspect, it turns out that the Golden Age of American Cinema offered Americans of all ages, ethnic groups, and levels of intellectual sophistication the most life-affirming and morally-unobjectionable movies ever -- and, in view of the technical skill then available, movies still watchable eighty or more years later. The Jews in Hollywood allowed a motion-picture code to prevail, and certain things (overt sex and mockery of religion and American patriotism) were off limits. The Jews wanted it that way. It was wiser to have the parish priest telling devout Catholics that it was in no way immoral to attend the movie theater. 

When war came those Jews could unleash righteous patriotism against the man who dedicated himself to the annihilation of everything Jewish. Such was a good choice. 

It may surprise you that before 1933 Germany had an impressive cinema that then rivaled Hollywood. Hitler and his cultural henchman Goebbels destroyed that in Germany. The lucky part of German cinema found its way to Hollywood. Much of that was, of course, Jewish. That part of German cinema strengthened cinematic techniques in America.  

Quote:But this was not the case in 1860, nor in 1776. Not even close. Not even remotely close. Many votes in those days were case in musket balls with lots of blood.

But there are parallels. Lincoln called to attention the founding of the new America. FDR saw Lincoln as a model of wartime leadership during World War II and made the most of that model. 

Let's not kid ourselves. This time the Crisis isn't achieving independence from Britain, endeavoring to keep the Union together (in the North) or preserving a supposedly wonderful way of life (in the South -- nobody ever asked the slaves whether things were so great for them), or waging two wars at once against enemies intent on obliterating democracy everywhere at once. We have a tiny virus... and if Trump had any idea of how to lead he would be making a demonized enemy out of an utterly inhuman, destructive, and insidious virus. 

This is the "Adolf Hitler of Our Time":



Go ahead. Hate this enemy. Hate it as you wear a mask. Hate it as you recognize that it denies you much that you ordinarily enjoy in life. Hate it as it makes your economic life precarious. Hate it while you wash your hands for twenty seconds instead of five.  

Quote:Only a sober look back at FDR's America in the 1930s, without the blinders of Democrat Party hackery, can reveal how closely Democrats & Republicans pols in this country attempted to mirror Hitler's Germany (perhaps, as one commentator called the New Deal "without the blackshirts").

...yes, but with no compromise in the rule of law, academic freedom, workers' rights, religious freedom, and the right to form a small business and make a go of it. The Republican Party had entwined itself completely with an economic bubble that burst and for which the GOP had no viable solution. If you are not part of the solution, then you are not part of the process of resolving a big mess.

Quote:Thank God, those attempts failed. Largely due the Founder's collective wisdom in writing the U.S. Constitution, but also in We The People's respect for that document and the rule of law.

Yeah, sure. Tell me all about FDR's concentration camps (OK, incarceration of Japanese-Americans was a mistake), secret police rewarding children for spying on their parents, and politicized youth groups such as the Hitlerjugend and Bund Deutscher Maedel. Oh -- Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts which scrupulously avoided partisan expressions? 

Quote:If today's Democrats believe the Constitution is hopelessly flawed and invalid, win an election with the aim to settle that score in an undemocratic fashion, don't be surprised that a unpredictable resistance results in votes being cast as they were in days of old.

The Constitution isn't the problem. It is a current President who seeks to demolish its protections in the name of his personality-cult-in-all-but-name.

Note that someone such as I, very much a liberal, typically now attack Donald Judas Trump from a traditional, conservative standpoint.  Adolf Hitler stripped whatever checks and balances there had been in the German legal tradition, and without those he could initiate wars unilaterally and damn millions to slaughter for being "subhuman". Trump may not be that bad, but he is attempting to establish an unaccountable federal police force (yes, a secret police analogous to the Gestapo, Kempeitai, KGB, SAVAK, Tontons Macoutes, or Mukhabarat -- or for something associated with one American state, the Mississippi Sovereignty Commission). Check the Wikipedia article on the latter. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississipp...Commission

I suggested that it be put into the category of "secret police", and that has stuck. 

Donald Trump now mandates that we have a New Birth of Freedom -- a catch-phrase that I have extracted from Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address.

[David Horn]

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: Frankly I think the big elephant in this "Generational Theory" room is a flawed consensus among you all is that a 4T somehow represents a "regeneration" of sorts, where a solid majority gets on the same page and attacks troubling issues in a singular mind.

Of course this was the case in 1933 Germany, right after FDR and the Democrat Party crushed Hoover & the Republicans in November, 1932.

But this was not the case in 1860, nor in 1776. Not even close. Not even remotely close. Many votes in those days were case in musket balls with lots of blood.

Only a sober look back at FDR's America in the 1930s, without the blinders of Democrat Party hackery, can reveal how closely Democrats & Republicans pols in this country attempted to mirror Hitler's Germany (perhaps, as one commentator called the New Deal "without the blackshirts").

Thank God, those attempts failed. Largely due the Founder's collective wisdom in writing the U.S. Constitution, but also in We The People's respect for that document and the rule of law.

If today's Democrats believe the Constitution is hopelessly flawed and invalid, win an election with the aim to settle that score in an undemocratic fashion, don't be surprised that a unpredictable resistance results in votes being cast as they were in days of old.

Come on Marc.  Even a died-in-the-wool Republican has to see that the Constitution was purposely biased when it was written, and had built-in resistances to change to assure that those biases were extremely hard to overcome.  Of course, the current reality is a funhouse mirror image of the original intent, but the biases are still there and still dominant, just not the way they were intended.  

For the sake of argument, let's assume that the two great biases -- the Senate and the Electoral College -- continue on as the are, but the imbalances between the popular vote and the representative vote continue to widen.  How great a mismatch between the popular vote and the Electoral vote should be tolerated before extralegal measures are justified?  The same applies to the Senate, where 18% of the population controls 50% of that votes in that body.

Some adjustment is needed and soon.  We now have the second minority POTUS by popular vote, and he's as good an example of how nuts this really is as I can imagine.  And don't get me started on Mitch McConnell's Senate.

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: Frankly I think the big elephant in this "Generational Theory" room is a flawed consensus among you all is that a 4T somehow represents a "regeneration" of sorts, where a solid majority gets on the same page and attacks troubling issues in a singular mind.

Through the impeachment I was working a conjecture on what happens if a generational crisis prophet-nomad-civic configuration of generations passes without a real trigger or regeneracy.  The impeachment was certainly not it.  The two sides disagreed, if anything more than ever, but there was no real abandonment of either extreme.

COVUS and Black Lives Matter?  These seem real.  The incubation time on the virus is short enough that the problem couldn’t be ignored.  You couldn’t ignore the problem and selfishly pass it onto future generations.   There was consensus enough that the violent racist policing policy had to be moderated.  While it is too bad that it has to wait until the Democrats have the senate and White House, the voice of the people can no longer be ignored.

Or maybe not.  You seem capable of ignoring a dead elephant in the room.

[pbrower2a]

(07-22-2020, 05:47 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: Frankly I think the big elephant in this "Generational Theory" room is a flawed consensus among you all is that a 4T somehow represents a "regeneration" of sorts, where a solid majority gets on the same page and attacks troubling issues in a singular mind.

Through the impeachment I was working a conjecture on what happens if a generational crisis prophet-nomad-civic configuration of generations passes without a real trigger or regeneracy.  The impeachment was certainly not it.  The two sides disagreed, if anything more than ever, but there was no real abandonment of either extreme.

COVUS and Black Lives Matter?  These seem real.  The incubation time on the virus is short enough that the problem couldn’t be ignored.  You couldn’t ignore the problem and selfishly pass it onto future generations.   There was consensus enough that the violent racist policing policy had to be moderated.  While it is too bad that it has to wait until the Democrats have the senate and White House, the voice of the people can no longer be ignored.

Or maybe not.  You seem capable of ignoring a dead elephant in the room.

Trump has shown how to do everything wrong... and as a consequence Americans of most parts of the political spectrum will reject his methods and his agenda. 

He got away with an impeachable offense because of a partisan divide in which his side turned to lockstep to protect him. That happens when people come to the belief that ruthlessness in the service of partisan ends is a great virtue. He can't get away with his catastrophic failure with COVID-19. 

His abuse of police powers is sure to create controversy... he has shown the willingness to form a federal police force to quash dissent. That is one of  the hallmarks of a dictatorship. He is going after one city at a time... 

He breaks the rules. But consider that breaking the rules makes sense only if one gets away with it because one proves oneself right after the fact. If one breaks the rules in certain ways one is a fool, a criminal, a bad gambler, or a madman... and one shows oneself as such.  Some highly-successful people, like Franz Josef Haydn in music, John D. Rockefeller II in business, Albert Einstein in physics, or Pablo Picasso in art proved themselves geniuses. Your friendly neighborhood drug pusher is simply riding luck, making for a short time more than the kid who follows the rules and works diligently at a fast-food place while not expecting too much. But the kid who works diligently at a fast-food place for five years may be a manager at such a place -- or even before then may have gone on to something better. The dope pusher is killed by a rival pusher or is busted... and if busted he goes to prison... and "Chez Mac" wants nothing to do with him except to sell him some fast food.

[Eric the Green]

(07-22-2020, 12:34 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: Frankly I think the big elephant in this "Generational Theory" room is a flawed consensus among you all is that a 4T somehow represents a "regeneration" of sorts, where a solid majority gets on the same page and attacks troubling issues in a singular mind.

Of course this was the case in 1933 Germany, right after FDR and the Democrat Party crushed Hoover & the Republicans in November, 1932.

But this was not the case in 1860, nor in 1776. Not even close. Not even remotely close. Many votes in those days were case in musket balls with lots of blood.

Only a sober look back at FDR's America in the 1930s, without the blinders of Democrat Party hackery, can reveal how closely Democrats & Republicans pols in this country attempted to mirror Hitler's Germany (perhaps, as one commentator called the New Deal "without the blackshirts").

Thank God, those attempts failed. Largely due the Founder's collective wisdom in writing the U.S. Constitution, but also in We The People's respect for that document and the rule of law.

If today's Democrats believe the Constitution is hopelessly flawed and invalid, win an election with the aim to settle that score in an undemocratic fashion, don't be surprised that a unpredictable resistance results in votes being cast as they were in days of old.

Come on Marc.  Even a died-in-the-wool Republican has to see that the Constitution was purposely biased when it was written, and had built-in resistances to change to assure that those biases were extremely hard to overcome.  Of course, the current reality is a funhouse mirror image of the original intent, but the biases are still there and still dominant, just not the way they were intended.  

For the sake of argument, let's assume that the two great biases -- the Senate and the Electoral College -- continue on as the are, but the imbalances between the popular vote and the representative vote continue to widen.  How great a mismatch between the popular vote and the Electoral vote should be tolerated before extralegal measures are justified?  The same applies to the Senate, where 18% of the population controls 50% of that votes in that body.

Some adjustment is needed and soon.  We now have the second minority POTUS by popular vote, and he's as good an example of how nuts this really is as I can imagine.  And don't get me started on Mitch McConnell's Senate.

Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn what Marc says...

Well, just a bit of 1930s hyperbole because Marc started his post about the 1930s with "Frankly"....

But I agree with him to the extent that a 4T is not a time of national consensus about a progressive way forward. It's just that a progressive victory has always resulted, even if there's some backtracking in the following 1T. But 4Ts are the time of a fight between the forces of progress and the forces of regression, and progress has always won. If it does not this time, it will be a sure sign of the impending failure of the republic. 

And Marc represents the regressive side.

There was a down-tick in Biden's lead today, and it may be because Trump was sounding a bit more reasonable in his approach to covid today. But he has a long way to go to turn it around, and the new cases continue to mount, and so do the new deaths. Back up over 1000 today.

FDR saved the country, and his life-saving measures were turned back by a reactionary supreme court appointed by three regressive 3T presidents. FDR tried to pack the court to overcome this, and failed, but his threats succeeded, and the court turned more progressive.

Now we may face a similar prospect. We have a reactionary supreme court, and if Trump wins it will be so reactionary that progress will be stifled and the republic will fail, as mentioned above. If Ginsberg were to pass on before Jan.3, then Trump could appoint a new conservative justice, and he might have time to get Mitch to put him on the bench. If that happened, then court packing schemes might be needed again. They might be needed anyway, even if the Democrats win the Senate and the presidency.

Trump is violating the constitution by attacking peaceful protesters. He refuses to answer subpoenas. I don't know how Marc and Classic Xer et al can call that legal; imagine what would happen if any of us did that. He uses his position for financial gain, and uses campaign funds for personal use. He tries to get foreign leaders to help him get re-elected. I'm sure this is not an exhaustive list.

Our constitution has given the Republicans the ability to block legislation in spite of what the people want, and put the two worst presidents in our history into the white house. But this advantage can be rectified in a new progressive era, in several ways. As states become more blue, which may be inevitable, they could require that their electoral votes go to the popular vote winner. This process has already started. And they could give DC and Puerto Rico 2 senators each, and make PR a state adding their votes to the electoral college. Reversing Trump's war on immigration and passing DACA and immigration reform could add to Republican nightmares by turning Texas, Arizona, Florida and other states permanently blue, which is being cemented now by Trump's attacks on immigrants. Biden and Trump are now already tied in Texas in the polls, and Biden leads in Florida by 6 points.

[David Horn]

(07-23-2020, 12:03 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Our constitution has given the Republicans the ability to block legislation in spite of what the people want, and put the two worst presidents in our history into the white house. But this advantage can be rectified in a new progressive era, in several ways. As states become more blue, which may be inevitable, they could require that their electoral votes go to the popular vote winner. This process has already started. And they could give DC and Puerto Rico 2 senators each, and make PR a state adding their votes to the electoral college. Reversing Trump's war on immigration and passing DACA and immigration reform could add to Republican nightmares by turning Texas, Arizona, Florida and other states permanently blue, which is being cemented now by Trump's attacks on immigrants. Biden and Trump are now already tied in Texas in the polls, and Biden leads in Florida by 6 points.

I agree that the real fix involves Constitutional change. How is that possible? The last real substantive change happened after the ACW, because the opposition was outside the Union. We don't have that happening now, and, short of another mass exodus from the Union, it won't happen in the future.

It's nearly impossible for people to willingly give away their advantage, when they know it will impact them in ways they abhor. The Big Square States will never concede, and forget about more states in the Union, unless it's done by balance (see Alaska-Hawaii as the only model in the last 100 years). PR and DC are both Democrat, though PR has only shifted left in the recent past. At that, two would be inadequate to trigger real change, so short of a Constitutional Convention change isn't happening.

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-23-2020, 09:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-23-2020, 12:03 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Our constitution has given the Republicans the ability to block legislation in spite of what the people want, and put the two worst presidents in our history into the white house. But this advantage can be rectified in a new progressive era, in several ways. As states become more blue, which may be inevitable, they could require that their electoral votes go to the popular vote winner. This process has already started. And they could give DC and Puerto Rico 2 senators each, and make PR a state adding their votes to the electoral college. Reversing Trump's war on immigration and passing DACA and immigration reform could add to Republican nightmares by turning Texas, Arizona, Florida and other states permanently blue, which is being cemented now by Trump's attacks on immigrants. Biden and Trump are now already tied in Texas in the polls, and Biden leads in Florida by 6 points.

I agree that the real fix involves Constitutional change.  How is that possible?  The last real substantive change happened after the  ACW, because the opposition was outside the Union.  We don't have that happening now, and, short of another mass exodus from the Union, it won't happen in the future.

It's nearly impossible for people to willingly give away their advantage, when they know it will impact them in ways they abhor.  The Big Square States will never concede, and forget about more states in the Union, unless it's done by balance (see Alaska-Hawaii as the only model in the last 100 years). PR and DC are both Democrat, though PR has only shifted left in the recent past. At that, two would be inadequate to trigger real change, so short of a Constitutional Convention change isn't happening.

Let's wait until the crisis ends, when the instinct for never again is at it's strongest.  Crisis end is generally the time that constitutions are written, that amendments are made, when an attempt is made to carve the lessons learned into stone.  The elitism and racism or the Republicans can be laid directly on the old slave compromises.  The letting of the rural population to have absurd amounts of political power led directly to the two failures that have show up so far in the crisis.  It is possible that enough never again will result in a call for change.  We will see how many people that Trump manages to kill with his bad virus response, how much corruption is exposed, how much the violent racist police are aimed at the American people.

Who knows?

[Eric the Green]

(07-23-2020, 11:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-23-2020, 09:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-23-2020, 12:03 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Our constitution has given the Republicans the ability to block legislation in spite of what the people want, and put the two worst presidents in our history into the white house. But this advantage can be rectified in a new progressive era, in several ways. As states become more blue, which may be inevitable, they could require that their electoral votes go to the popular vote winner. This process has already started. And they could give DC and Puerto Rico 2 senators each, and make PR a state adding their votes to the electoral college. Reversing Trump's war on immigration and passing DACA and immigration reform could add to Republican nightmares by turning Texas, Arizona, Florida and other states permanently blue, which is being cemented now by Trump's attacks on immigrants. Biden and Trump are now already tied in Texas in the polls, and Biden leads in Florida by 6 points.

I agree that the real fix involves Constitutional change.  How is that possible?  The last real substantive change happened after the  ACW, because the opposition was outside the Union.  We don't have that happening now, and, short of another mass exodus from the Union, it won't happen in the future.

It's nearly impossible for people to willingly give away their advantage, when they know it will impact them in ways they abhor.  The Big Square States will never concede, and forget about more states in the Union, unless it's done by balance (see Alaska-Hawaii as the only model in the last 100 years). PR and DC are both Democrat, though PR has only shifted left in the recent past. At that, two would be inadequate to trigger real change, so short of a Constitutional Convention change isn't happening.

Let's wait until the crisis ends, when the instinct for never again is at it's strongest.  Crisis end is generally the time that constitutions are written, that amendments are made, when an attempt is made to carve the lessons learned into stone.  The elitism and racism or the Republicans can be laid directly on the old slave compromises.  The letting of the rural population to have absurd amounts of political power led directly to the two failures that have show up so far in the crisis.  It is possible that enough never again will result in a call for change.  We will see how many people that Trump manages to kill with his bad virus response, how much corruption is exposed, how much the violent racist police are aimed at the American people.

Who knows?

More change can happen that we think while we are in the middle of a 4T. By the time the end comes around, new institutions and constitutional changes happen. The League of Nations was dead before WWII, but it was brought back. The New Deal changed our idea of government for almost a saeculum following.

If Puerto Rico decides it wants to be a state, and DC demands proper representation or statehood, a Democratic congress will grant it. It does depend on more progressive election returns in the 2020s, and perhaps suspension of the filibuster, which was already dropped for Supreme Court nominees. This is one way to shift the senate by 4 votes.

So I see some hope. As I said, if immigration reform happens after Trump's attempt to literally stonewall the ongoing northward American migration, it will resume, and the ongoing demographic shifts will accelerate again and turn south-west states blue. Immigrants from the north and west are also shifting southern states. Texas shifting will be a big deal. Today Biden and Trump are dead even in the polls there. It will probably have 40 electoral votes next election. When that happens the rural advantage in the electoral college will be gone, and their advantage in the senate could be gone too. AZ already has a Democratic majority congressional delegation. Their two Republican senators will likely be reduced to one in the 2020 election. And the more states turn blue, the ongoing process of state legislation to require electoral college delegates to vote for the national popular vote winner could render the electoral college mute. These shifts may not be permanent after the 4T ends, and the political pendulum still swings, but they could become permanent in the long run.

4Ts are times when change happens, much more than is imagined during 3Ts or during extended phony civil war 4Ts like the 1850s and today. I agree, the challenge is daunting, and no, the right-wing will not easily give up power. But that's what 4Ts are all about. It will be a struggle, but we've got some strong cards to play.

[Marc Lamb]

(07-22-2020, 12:34 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: If today's Democrats believe the Constitution is hopelessly flawed and invalid, win an election with the aim to settle that score in an undemocratic fashion, don't be surprised that a unpredictable resistance results in votes being cast as they were in days of old.

Come on Marc.  Even a died-in-the-wool Republican has to see that the Constitution was purposely biased when it was written, and had built-in resistances to change to assure that those biases were extremely hard to overcome.

We The People settled that score with the [bloodied] words, "Four score and seven years ago...", that resulted in the near destruction of the Democrat Party.

It appears the rise of the KKK, Jim Crow laws, Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Bull Connor and William Jefferson Clinton et al saved your party's racist ass. Bully for you. If you'd like to take a riotous stab to rewrite the U.S. Constitution, now, with your anarchist Marxist dogma, have at it. We Republicans will be waiting for you, Mr. Horn. May God permit the better ideals and ideas to prevail... again.

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-23-2020, 10:12 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: We The People settled that score with the [bloodied] words, "Four score and seven years ago...", that resulted in the near destruction of the Democrat Party.

It appears the rise of the KKK, Jim Crow laws, Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Bull Connor and William Jefferson Clinton et al saved your party's racist ass. Bully for you. If you'd like to take a riotous stab to rewrite the U.S. Constitution, now, with your anarchist Marxist dogma, have at it. We Republicans will be waiting for you, Mr. Horn. May God permit the better ideals and ideas to prevail... again.

The Republicans flipped big time twice. They were an isolationist party before World War II, but since have become strong on defense. They partnered with the abolitionists about the Civil War time frame, but became the party of the southern strategy much later.

I’m not saying the Democrats have not also flipped. They were the rural slavery party around the Civil War, but became the progressive party with FDR.

But you can’t say the Republicans were abolitionists once and rest on your laurels from way back then forever.

We do have the 4T. The old values will go kaput now. This is primarily the idea that you can solve problems by ignoring them and the science, and that you can gain political power by enabling racism.

I don’t know that if you are an adherent of the old values that you should start celebrating the 4T.

[Mikebert]

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: We now be 4t, officially ... finally!

Yep, but I would submit it has only begun recently, and so not in line with generations as currently constituted.

Also I have always been of the opinion that the 4T involves a struggle between opposing elite factions with the winner of that struggle then engaging in the post-regeneracy correction of problems.

However this resolution has come in the form of "political revolution" (in the form of periodic critical elections) more often a "hot" war. Besides the revolution of 1776, we had "Revolution of 1800", election of 1828, 1860 (this one did lead to a civil war), 1896, 1932, and the "Reagan Revolution" in 1980.

But this supposed 4T that should have happened over the last two decades hasn't gelled.  It's not like the opportunity did not arise. We have had critical election candidates in 2000, 2008, 2016, and now, likley, 2020. And they keep going belly up. We have have plenty of events of similar magnitude to past 4T catalysts: 911, Panic of 2008, and now the worst pandemic in a century, all packed into a single turning-length period, that even matches up with the generational forecast, but no 4T.  According to S&H turnings are caused by generational constellations. So when the first such constellation arrived after they published their theory, it did not cause a turning change, we remained in a 3T-type period.

That is as close to an experimental test as it gets in this business and it came up negative.

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-24-2020, 06:20 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: We now be 4t, officially ... finally!

Yep, but I would submit it has only begun recently, and so not in line with generations as currently constituted.

Also I have always been of the opinion that the 4T involves a struggle between opposing elite factions with the winner of that struggle then engaging in the post-regeneracy correction of problems.

However this resolution has come in the form of "political revolution" (in the form of periodic critical elections) more often a "hot" war. Besides the revolution of 1776, we had "Revolution of 1800", election of 1828, 1860 (this one did lead to a civil war), 1896, 1932, and the "Reagan Revolution" in 1980.

But this supposed 4T that should have happened over the last two decades hasn't gelled.  It's not like the opportunity did not arise. We have had critical election candidates in 2000, 2008, 2016, and now, likley, 2020. And they keep going belly up. We have have plenty of events of similar magnitude to past 4T catalysts: 911, Panic of 2008, and now the worst pandemic in a century, all packed into a single turning-length period, that even matches up with the generational forecast, but no 4T.  According to S&H turnings are caused by generational constellations. So when the first such constellation arrived after they published their theory, it did not cause a turning change, we remained in a 3T-type period.

That is as close to an experimental test as it gets in this business and it came up negative.

At one level it is a struggle of elites mostly about finance. For example, the American Civil War was about the slave owning agricultural elites and the budding robber barons fighting over political control. At another level it is an argument over ideals. Will there be emancipation? You cannot assume a single motivation for everybody.

Another big factor is nukes. In the Industrial Age you could count on a crisis war traumatizing the population such that they do not repeat such a war until the last one is forgotten in living minds. Since, cultures avoid such wars full time. We are permanently traumatized. Without a crisis war being so common as to be nigh on inevitable, triggers become more rare, rare enough that you can’t count on one coming along during the crisis generation alignment.

Clearly, you have more political revolutions and critical elections that S&H proposed crises. Not all of them can be crises. In particular, September 11 occurred a little early, and the conservatives were in charge. You aren’t going to get a transfer to the new values while the policies are based on the old values. I also see Obama as not pushing. He dd not press revenge against Wall Street, and while he got Obamacare he lost the congressional majority in doing so and did not push further. His actions were to a great extent undone by his successor. While the events leading into his term were significant, they did not insist on action, and Obama was more concerned with becoming a good first black president than pressing an agenda for radical change.

This is why I was wondering what happened when a crisis generation configuration went by without a trigger that demanded immediate action. Until COVID 19 came along, that is what seemed to be happening. No trigger. No regeneracy. No crisis heart. You saw a continuing 3T like period with two sets of values remain locked against each other.

Now? I think we have seen a genuine old fashion trigger though it does not point to an inevitable crisis war. If you do not solve it, you get death. Beyond that, the people are rejecting violent racist policing. The old values have become clearly unacceptable, so you have red people turning blue.

Thus, I think you came to your conclusion a little soon. See if Biden tries to implement the full blue agenda, the red balk, and the red values can stage a comeback. See if the reds have a real candidate in 2024 backing the old values still. If the old Republican base is a real electoral threat, we will have a failed 4T and a continued 3T mentality. I suspect it will not happen.

[Tim Randal Walker]

This 4T resembles a concept I mentioned awhile back-a splintering Crisis. It doesn't have the relative neatness of the Civil War 4T, which eventually coalesced into two warring camps. This 4T seems to be multi-vector in terms of conflict ( though of course the pandemic doesn't quite fit any model of conflict).

[Eric the Green]

(07-24-2020, 06:20 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: We now be 4t, officially ... finally!

Yep, but I would submit it has only begun recently, and so not in line with generations as currently constituted.

Also I have always been of the opinion that the 4T involves a struggle between opposing elite factions with the winner of that struggle then engaging in the post-regeneracy correction of problems.

However this resolution has come in the form of "political revolution" (in the form of periodic critical elections) more often a "hot" war. Besides the revolution of 1776, we had "Revolution of 1800", election of 1828, 1860 (this one did lead to a civil war), 1896, 1932, and the "Reagan Revolution" in 1980.

But this supposed 4T that should have happened over the last two decades hasn't gelled.  It's not like the opportunity did not arise. We have had critical election candidates in 2000, 2008, 2016, and now, likley, 2020. And they keep going belly up. We have have plenty of events of similar magnitude to past 4T catalysts: 911, Panic of 2008, and now the worst pandemic in a century, all packed into a single turning-length period, that even matches up with the generational forecast, but no 4T.  According to S&H turnings are caused by generational constellations. So when the first such constellation arrived after they published their theory, it did not cause a turning change, we remained in a 3T-type period.

That is as close to an experimental test as it gets in this business and it came up negative.

As usual, I assert that the anomaly is limited and that the 1850s were a "phony" 4T or an "indian autumn" just like ours was (at least until 2020).

And "the stars align" with such a view.

What's more, if political parties nominate weak candidates, as everyone agrees that Hillary Rodham Clinton was, then this may supercede any calculation by means of elections whether a turning has begun or a generational constellation has been invalidated. No presidential candidate who does not have the requisite skills AS A CANDIDATE ever wins the USA presidency, regardless of turning.

If Kamala Harris becomes vice president in 2020, and is nominated for president in 2024, then she will lose, and Mike will say that the 4T never happened or is yet to arrive. He may be right, but it will not be because the 4T and generations theory was wrong, but because a political party made the wrong choice.

[pbrower2a]

(07-23-2020, 11:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-23-2020, 09:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-23-2020, 12:03 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Our constitution has given the Republicans the ability to block legislation in spite of what the people want, and put the two worst presidents in our history into the white house. But this advantage can be rectified in a new progressive era, in several ways. As states become more blue, which may be inevitable, they could require that their electoral votes go to the popular vote winner. This process has already started. And they could give DC and Puerto Rico 2 senators each, and make PR a state adding their votes to the electoral college. Reversing Trump's war on immigration and passing DACA and immigration reform could add to Republican nightmares by turning Texas, Arizona, Florida and other states permanently blue, which is being cemented now by Trump's attacks on immigrants. Biden and Trump are now already tied in Texas in the polls, and Biden leads in Florida by 6 points.

I agree that the real fix involves Constitutional change.  How is that possible?  The last real substantive change happened after the  ACW, because the opposition was outside the Union.  We don't have that happening now, and, short of another mass exodus from the Union, it won't happen in the future.

It's nearly impossible for people to willingly give away their advantage, when they know it will impact them in ways they abhor.  The Big Square States will never concede, and forget about more states in the Union, unless it's done by balance (see Alaska-Hawaii as the only model in the last 100 years). PR and DC are both Democrat, though PR has only shifted left in the recent past. At that, two would be inadequate to trigger real change, so short of a Constitutional Convention change isn't happening.

Let's wait until the crisis ends, when the instinct for never again is at it's strongest.  Crisis end is generally the time that constitutions are written, that amendments are made, when an attempt is made to carve the lessons learned into stone.  The elitism and racism or the Republicans can be laid directly on the old slave compromises.  The letting of the rural population to have absurd amounts of political power led directly to the two failures that have show up so far in the crisis.  It is possible that enough never again will result in a call for change.  We will see how many people that Trump manages to kill with his bad virus response, how much corruption is exposed, how much the violent racist police are aimed at the American people.

Who knows?

We are going to need a Constitutional amendment to delimit the authority of the federal government in law enforcement. That's not to say that the federal government should not enforce federal law. Using federal employees to violate civil rights at the direction of the President or Cabinet officers is absolutely un-Constitutional. It would seem that it would be wise to have a prohibition of anything resembling a secret police. Trump has gone down that track, and such must be stopped and reverse -- and prevented from happening again. 

Such abuse is clearly outside the scope of the role that the Founders had for the federal government, an unambiguous centralization of authority destructive of state's rights with the demonstrable and flagrant violation of the Bill of Rights.

[Mikebert]

(07-24-2020, 09:38 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Clearly, you have more political revolutions and critical elections that S&H proposed crises.  Not all of them can be crises.

They aren't. Critical elections occur in social moment turnings, 2Ts as well as 4Ts. Examples the Reagan revolution. Progressive era, and Age of Jackson were all 2T phenomena.

[quote[In particular, September 11 occurred a little early, and the conservatives were in charge.[/quote]
No, given a new generation (Z) started to be born about 4 years earlier, it was right on schedule.  Also the last 4T began with the conservatives in charge, as did the one before that, and the one before that.

Quote:You aren’t going to get a transfer to the new values while the policies are based on the old values.  I also see Obama as not pushing.  He dd not press revenge against Wall Street, and while he got Obamacare he lost the congressional majority in doing so and did not push further.  His actions were to a great extent undone by his successor.

Yes, that is what happened, but that is NOT what the generation theory SAYs was supposed to happen. That's my point.

[quoteThis is why I was wondering what happened when a crisis generation configuration went by without a trigger that demanded immediate action.[/quote]
What do you mean by no trigger? All three of these catalysts, 911, the 2008 panic and the pandemic all resulted in immediate action. There simply wasn't the different response that was supposed to happen given the generational constellation in the late 1990's.

Quote:Until COVID 19 came along, that is what seemed to be happening.  No trigger.  No regeneracy.  No crisis heart.  You saw a continuing 3T like period with two sets of values remain locked against each other.

Which is not supposed to happen according to the theory.

Quote:Now?  I think we have seen a genuine old fashion trigger though it does not point to an inevitable crisis war.

Quote:Crisis war? Have you now starting to buy into John Xenakis's formulation? I agree that something might be happening now, but its far to late to be a 4T trigger, since it has been 36 years since the start of the 4T.

Quote:Thus, I think you came to your conclusion a little soon.  See if Biden tries to implement the full blue agenda, the red balk, and the red values can stage a comeback.  See if the reds have a real candidate in 2024 backing the old values still.  If the old Republican base is a real electoral threat, we will have a failed 4T and a continued 3T mentality.  I suspect it will not happen.

Not too soon. A trigger now means a 4T start now, which makes the 3T exceed 30 years. You have no idea what the next decade will see. The idea that Biden will win and we can then move on to a 1T in a few years does not pass a plausibility screen.

There is a LOT of stuff that has to be addressed. In economics there is the fact that profits are no being 100% funneled into stock buybacks and dividends. Capitalism is supposed to work by profits being reinvented into the economy, which grows it. But with the current system capitalist is no deployed to blow up market bubbles. There will be no popping of the bubble as long as the Fed is pumping money into the markets, which is is doing.If Biden does not take steps to collapse the stock market (and I cannot see him doing this) this situation will remain a gun to our head which eventually much trigger hyperinflation, but that could take a decade.

Then there is our empire. We cannot afford it but neither party shows any interest in reign it in.  What happens when China decides to call out the US for the paper tiger it is. We cannot even handle a pandemic.  I fear hothead might take the war option and will be be crushed.  According to Modelski's leadership cycle the Global War phase is to begin around 2025 give or take a five years.

Then there is the high levels of social unrest and high levels of the political stress indicator (which is indicative of evolutionary situations).  Many have talked about possible civil war.

Then there is the problem of our eroding democracy and the rises of illiberalism among progressives as well as conservatives.

I'm sure you can think of other things. This is too full a plate to deal with in a single term or even two terms. For Biden to be a true Reconstructive president (which we are supposed to get if they is a 4T) will require three Democratic terms in a row and it would take that long to address all the problems. Yet it seems clear that the Democrats do not have the desire to solve any of these problems and will probably kick the can down the road. The Republicans have no interest either. So we cannot deal with our problems until we have new parties. How long with that take? For the Civil War the Whigs (that's us) collapsed, took on some Democratic factions who had left the party and formed a new party, the Republicans. One possible rearrangement might be for "woke capitalism" to move over the Democrats completing the party realignment begun in 1964, which the Democrats and Republicans completely changing positions.

Supposedly it could go the other way with the Democratic neoliberals going over the the other side, but I can't see that.

[Bob Butler 54]

The triggers for America’s crises occurred with George III, Buchanan, Hoover and now Trump in charge.  These four are representatives of the old values which are being superseded in the crisis.  I guess it is not unusual for there to be a slight delay before the regeneracy comes along, before Lincoln, FDR or Biden takes over.  I see us in such a delay.  Some of the states are acting already with some of the new values, but the federal response seems to be waiting on the election and inauguration.

People are suggesting the crisis will not end until 1930 or beyond.  Putting the crisis generational alignment as starting in the 1990s would make it a stretch.  I have the crisis as of necessity having to end relatively soon.

It is just clear in hindsight that neither September 11 or the housing bubble collapse caused an overwhelming shift to the new values.  I gave my reasons why they did not.  You could quibble with the reasons, but I don’t think you can deny they did not.  Nothing before COVID was a trigger.

The combination of COVID 19 and the Black Lives Matter movement could very well result in the values shift compatible with S&H’s crisis transformations.  Your certainty that they will not seems premature.

A trigger may make the crisis heart inevitable, but it does not say anything about when the prophet - nomad - civic alignment occurs.  There is a time after the alignment begins but before the trigger occurs which essentially continues the 3T.  You do not see a unity behind the new values.  You do not see any conservative attempt at a crisis heart succeed.  You wait for a real trigger.

The 4T might have multiple endings.  I see the most likely being the virus might be cured and police racial violence outlawed sending us into a never again time followed by a shift to the high mentality.  The cure and the police reform might not take long.  Alternately, you could have other issues that could be brought in.  You mention economics, empire, and China.  There can be global warming, bridges and other.  Any combination of these could extend the crisis heart.  On another level, you could have the silent and boomers age out of dominance.  The crisis cannot go on forever.  If the generational alignment ends, crisis over.  Some of the problems could be addressed from a high mentality or wait until the next generation of prophets start screaming.

I suppose the hypothetical grey champion could have been born out of season.  There is no rule saying someone who was born in a nomad year might not have a prophet's mentality.  Some idealist on the radical liberal side might surface.  Still, I feel such a person doesn't have a lot of time on the calendar to get everything done.

I’m just saying it’s too soon to declare anything, to be sure of what is going to happen.  The S&H perspective is still hot.  It is too soon to take their perspective as out of the picture.

[Eric the Green]

I assume this is mikebert's quote:

Quote:Not too soon. A trigger now means a 4T start now, which makes the 3T exceed 30 years. You have no idea what the next decade will see. The idea that Biden will win and we can then move on to a 1T in a few years does not pass a plausibility screen.

There is a LOT of stuff that has to be addressed. In economics there is the fact that profits are no being 100% funneled into stock buybacks and dividends. Capitalism is supposed to work by profits being reinvented into the economy, which grows it. But with the current system capitalist is no deployed to blow up market bubbles. There will be no popping of the bubble as long as the Fed is pumping money into the markets, which is is doing.If Biden does not take steps to collapse the stock market (and I cannot see him doing this) this situation will remain a gun to our head which eventually much trigger hyperinflation, but that could take a decade.

Then there is our empire. We cannot afford it but neither party shows any interest in reign it in. What happens when China decides to call out the US for the paper tiger it is. We cannot even handle a pandemic. I fear hothead might take the war option and will be be crushed. According to Modelski's leadership cycle the Global War phase is to begin around 2025 give or take a five years.

Then there is the high levels of social unrest and high levels of the political stress indicator (which is indicative of evolutionary situations). Many have talked about possible civil war.

Then there is the problem of our eroding democracy and the rises of illiberalism among progressives as well as conservatives.

I'm sure you can think of other things. This is too full a plate to deal with in a single term or even two terms. For Biden to be a true Reconstructive president (which we are supposed to get if they is a 4T) will require three Democratic terms in a row and it would take that long to address all the problems. Yet it seems clear that the Democrats do not have the desire to solve any of these problems and will probably kick the can down the road. The Republicans have no interest either. So we cannot deal with our problems until we have new parties. How long with that take? For the Civil War the Whigs (that's us) collapsed, took on some Democratic factions who had left the party and formed a new party, the Republicans. One possible rearrangement might be for "woke capitalism" to move over the Democrats completing the party realignment begun in 1964, which the Democrats and Republicans completely changing positions.

Supposedly it could go the other way with the Democratic neoliberals going over the the other side, but I can't see that.

Unpacking this a bit.

I don't see that there can't be multiple triggers in a 4T, just as there were in the 1850s until one finally set off the civil war, or even in the early 1770s before the Tea Party. This being the cold civil war, we can't expect the necessary unity to bring about the major changes we see in a 4T until the conservative faction is defeated. But the fight is still part of the 4T. Trump's presidency is constant chaos, and thus constant 4T. That seems very clear.

I agree we can't get to a 1T with just one term of Biden bringing back normalcy and curing the pandemic. "There is a LOT of stuff that has to be addressed."

No future party will want to collapse the stock market; that's not what parties do. If the bubble collapses, it will not be because a political party pops it on purpose.

The empire is not an issue now, but a cold war with China is growing. I agree on 2025 for the next US foreign war danger, and this war could indeed have its early pre-US phases beginning in late 2020. I don't know if it will be a war with China. It may be another Arab-world inferno. But that prediction agrees with what mine has been for decades. Stress, unrest and threats to democracy are certainly growing too. My estimation is that we will begin a progressive era sometime in the 2020s. But this will take more than one Biden term to make happen, or lead to real results.

The two parties are already completely polarized, but Democrats still have moderate factions (I would call them that, rather than neo-liberals). In a 4T things can move fast. This is already happening, so I expect we ain't seen nothing yet. It depends, however, on whether Democrats are smart enough to choose electable candidates for president. They probably aren't going to consult my horoscope scores, so all we can do is hope their intuition and observation is sufficiently mobilized so they can make the right choices, such as Susan Rice rather than Kamala Harris. But other things being equal, we can expect this 4T to heat up and speed up and be done by 2029 as expected. It won't accomplish everything we progressives want. No turning ever does. Things move on, and progress stops and starts between odd-numbered turnings and even-numbered ones.