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I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
(08-18-2020, 10:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: To preserve our Union we need to ensure that we can never have another leader like Donald Trump. That includes reducing the role of economic power in shaping politics. That includes a revival of faith in learning and reason. That includes restoring humanistic values as an expected characteristic of our economic leaders. People like Donald Trump who believe that nothing is more important than themselves believe in nothing except themselves. Such people cannot convince people outside of those like minded, the vicious, and the gullible.

To some degree that is true and timeless, but some of what you are saying seems to be that we need the 4T mindset. Now, I don't disagree that both are needed now. I just expect that the Democrats will overdo it, and that come the next unraveling the people might get tired of it.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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(08-20-2020, 08:03 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(08-18-2020, 10:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: To preserve our Union we need to ensure that we can never have another leader like Donald Trump. That includes reducing the role of economic power in shaping politics. That includes a revival of faith in learning and reason. That includes restoring humanistic values as an expected characteristic of our economic leaders. People like Donald Trump who believe that nothing is more important than themselves believe in nothing except themselves. Such people cannot convince people outside of those like minded, the vicious, and the gullible.

To some degree that is true and timeless, but some of what you are saying seems to be that we need the 4T mindset.  Now, I don't disagree that both are needed now.  I just expect that the Democrats will overdo it, and that come the next unraveling the people might get tired of it.

That's to be expected, but having excess to unravel is better than unravelling moderation.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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Big Grin 
(08-16-2020, 10:35 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(08-16-2020, 03:03 PM)Mikebert Wrote: 4. External conquest or at least invasion. Robert Butler has dealt with this one, so this is out.

Should I go looking for a picture of a wrecked invasion ship with me and my trusty mortar in the foreground?  Wink

ROTL. As you probably surmised I was referring to an argument for this outcome as being unlikely. But the image of you going all Rambo on invading Russians or whatever was quite amusing.
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(08-17-2020, 10:30 AM)David Horn Wrote: But eventually, the youth will have had enough.  It may take a decade or two (what could be the 2T in the S&H cycle), but the longer it takes to get there, the less likely it's peaceful.

That may well we the case. And I am sure S&H fans will assume we have a 1T in there. I note that 1865-1886 1T saw the longest depression in American history and the worst episode of violent unrest in the US (outside of the Revolutionary and Civil wars), but it was a "High." Yeah right.
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Was thinking about Erics comments.

First, if Biden wins, I think that he will be a one term president, because he is getting just too old. Second, I suspect that Eric is right, that if Harris runs for president next time around she will lose. Really, despite Obama, I very much doubt that a person "of color" can win the presidency during the rest of this 4T. I think Obama won because of a very particular set of circumstances, and once in office he was not only opposed but reviled. And outside of the party's base, I doubt that Harris will help Biden win.

As for winning the presidency during the rest of this 4T, I suspect that the only alternative to a white man that has even a slight chance would be a white woman.

If Biden/Harris should win, I expect that it would be by a thin margin. With a Biden administration being notable not so much by what it accomplishes as by what it blocks by simply being in the White House.
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One combination that could work for either of the major parties would be a white man for president, and a white woman for vice-president. Both the Republicans (McCain/Palin) and the Democrats (Mondale/Ferraro) have been willing to try this.

If Biden/Harris win that one term administration, it could be argued that the Democrats did a good job with People "of color". Time to try a white woman again.

As for a post Biden administration, I think that the Democrats best bet would be an emphasis on economics.
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(08-21-2020, 01:42 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Was thinking about Erics comments.

First, if Biden wins, I think that he will be a one term president, because he is getting just too old.  Second, I suspect that Eric is right, that if Harris runs for president next time around she will lose.  Really, despite Obama, I very much doubt that a person "of color" can win the presidency during the rest of this 4T.  I think Obama won because of a very particular set of circumstances, and once in office he was not only opposed but reviled.  And outside of the party's base, I doubt that Harris will help Biden win.

As for winning the presidency during the rest of this 4T, I suspect that the only alternative to a white man that has even a slight chance would be a white woman.

If Biden/Harris should win, I expect that it would be by a thin margin.  With a Biden administration being notable not so much by what it accomplishes as by what it blocks by simply  being in the White House.

I agree that Harris is no help and won't win the presidency, but I am not going by race, but by the talent of the candidate.

The large Republican base hates candidates of color. But they hate any Democrat regardless of color.

I thought Harris' convention speech was typical dullsville for her and too much about herself.

It depends on which candidates are available, and how talented they are. Horoscope scores are a good index. I don't claim they are infallible, but they are reliable.

I don't see a white woman on the horizon of available talented candidates off hand. Do you? 

I think the Democrats will have to be willing to nominate more white males, if they decide they want to win. Not because of their race, but because that's where the talent and status still is.

But if they want to continue to go for women of color, there are a few good options, as long as the Republicans nominate a weak candidate; and they are even shorter on talent and status right now than the Democrats are.

The list of candidates and scores I have posted so far is found at
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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(08-20-2020, 08:03 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(08-18-2020, 10:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: To preserve our Union we need to ensure that we can never have another leader like Donald Trump. That includes reducing the role of economic power in shaping politics. That includes a revival of faith in learning and reason. That includes restoring humanistic values as an expected characteristic of our economic leaders. People like Donald Trump who believe that nothing is more important than themselves believe in nothing except themselves. Such people cannot convince people outside of those like minded, the vicious, and the gullible.

To some degree that is true and timeless, but some of what you are saying seems to be that we need the 4T mindset.  Now, I don't disagree that both are needed now.  I just expect that the Democrats will overdo it, and that come the next unraveling the people might get tired of it.

I doubt people get tired of true values, or that they can be overdone. They get swept away by ideologies and deceptions and by charming candidates. They get bamboozled by entertainment. That's how TV stars like Reagan and Trump were able to get elected and steer the USA on the wrong path. There is always competition between true and false values. And a great communicator like Reagan can easily sell gullible Americans on those false values with attractive slogans like "government is the problem." It never was, but Reagan was a good salesman for that falsehood. His horoscope score was unbeatable. And he could easily outsell Carter who was offering "malaise." So I would put it not that people get tired of true values, but they get tempted and deceived away from the straight and narrow, often by talented demagogues like Reagan and Trump.

It can also be stated, as Kenneth Clark said about Rome, not so much that they got tired of good values, but that they simply got-- tired. It takes a bit of faith, enthusiasm, energy and exertion to keep a good civilization going.

This American obsession with personality and fantasy means to a large extent that true values have been on the wane in American society almost from the beginning, but certainly in the last 150 years. I don't think Americans have ever had enough true values to even know whether they are tired of them. 

They used to have churches, which compensated to some extent, but even there what was taught did not dissuade but often encouraged greed, racism, and competition and the destruction of Nature. Spengler looked at American Society a century ago in his Decline of The West and said Americans were just a bunch of dollar trappers with no past and no future.

Especially recently, a key problem has been the decline in education. Democrats in power on all levels can start by reinstating the requirements for civics classes in high schools.

True values are never tiring. They grow and develop civilizations. But cycles of civilizations and generations come and go. People and their leaders and teachers do lose touch with true values and get deceived and tempted by what is easier and more indulgent or fear-based.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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Off the top of my head I can't think of a white woman who is a prospect for the presidency. Perhaps there might be a few white women who could be on the ticket for vice-president?

Obama seemed to get even more hatred than white Democrats.
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(08-21-2020, 05:35 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Off the top of my head I can't think of a white woman who is a prospect for the presidency.  Perhaps there might be a few white women who could be on the ticket for vice-president?

Obama seemed to get even more hatred than white Democrats.

The level of hatred for the Clintons was such that it would be hard to distinguish from the level of hatred toward Obama. And Obama did better at the polls.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
The Biden/Harris ticket is a sure winner, according to the cyclical theory of history. Why? Because they want to bring America together. Enough said.

And that's all either Biden or Harris needs to campaign on. Bringing America together is the winning ticket. The more, or less, said about it in this fourth turn the better.
We now be 4t, officially ... finally!  Rolleyes
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(09-13-2020, 09:26 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: The Biden/Harris ticket is a sure winner, according to the cyclical theory of history. Why? Because they want to bring America together. Enough said.

And that's all either Biden or Harris needs to campaign on. Bringing America together is the winning ticket. The more, or less, said about it in this fourth turn the better.

I suspect you are right. The problem is an awful lot of people want to stick with the unraveling mindset, and Trump has sort of encouraged it. For the individual, hooray! Forget the common good, huzzah! As a result, it seems a little early for the counting chickens phase.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
Reply
(09-14-2020, 04:28 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(09-13-2020, 09:26 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: The Biden/Harris ticket is a sure winner, according to the cyclical theory of history. Why? Because they want to bring America together. Enough said.

And that's all either Biden or Harris needs to campaign on. Bringing America together is the winning ticket. The more, or less, said about it in this fourth turn the better.

I suspect you are right.  The problem is an awful lot of people want to stick with the unraveling mindset, and Trump has sort of encouraged it.  For the individual, hooray!  Forget the common good, huzzah!  As a result, it seems a little early for the counting chickens phase.

As unsettled as things are, handing out the political equivalent of Ritalin has to be popular.  I'm not sure popular is enough, though.  We still live in tribal times, and the tribes are restless.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(09-14-2020, 10:53 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(09-14-2020, 04:28 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(09-13-2020, 09:26 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: The Biden/Harris ticket is a sure winner, according to the cyclical theory of history. Why? Because they want to bring America together. Enough said.

And that's all either Biden or Harris needs to campaign on. Bringing America together is the winning ticket. The more, or less, said about it in this fourth turn the better.

I suspect you are right.  The problem is an awful lot of people want to stick with the unraveling mindset, and Trump has sort of encouraged it.  For the individual, hooray!  Forget the common good, huzzah!  As a result, it seems a little early for the counting chickens phase.

As unsettled as things are, handing out the political equivalent of Ritalin has to be popular.  I'm not sure popular is enough, though.  We still live in tribal times, and the tribes are restless.

I caught a bit of an MSNBC segment, where the reporter was in the midwest and concentrating on the pro Tump crowd. As she was presenting it, many were still getting their news entirely from the Fox bubble. She listed several of the latest new items, including the Woodward book Rage, and in general people had never heard of them. News came from folks who said what they wanted to hear. It was allegedly possible to remain ignorant of what they other guys presented. That was all hoax and fake news anyway. All that was important was who was president of Earth Two.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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4th turning started with 9/11, and ends next week.

Turnings aren’t that hard to sniff out since they overlay the generations ...
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I've only started learning about the Strauss-Howe generational theory but after reading what I've seen in this thread, here's what I might alternatively consider as the years corresponding to the turnings:

1st Turning: 1945 - 1968.  Begins with the end of WW2, ends with the death of MLK and the peak of the Civil Rights movement.

2nd Turning: 1968 - 1989.  Begins with the death of MLK and ends with the fall of the Berlin Wall.

3rd Turning: 1989 - 2016.  Begins with the fall of the Berlin Wall, ends with the election of Donald Trump.

4th Turning: 2016 - ?

Keep in mind that lifespans have increased substantially in the 20th and 21st centuries so this cycle will likely be longer.

Obviously, the end of a turning can only be determined in hindsight.  If we get 4 more years of Trump or if Biden ends up being a dud, I'd be more inclined to accept the alternative timeline I've proposed.  Otherwise if the whole nation unites under Biden (can't see Trump doing that) to combat covid, reverse the declining middle class, reassert itself against China and Russia in effective ways, etc., then I'd be more apt to go with Howe's timeline with the 4T starting in 2008 and ending some time in the middle of this decade.
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