What the next First Turning won't be like

[David Horn]

(01-18-2021, 10:54 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 11:31 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-17-2021, 08:40 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It will not be as inequitable. A new consensus will be that if the economic order and political stability are to be maintained, then people other than owners and executives must have a stake in the system.

The last 1T equalized the economic lives of white Americans, and did next to nothing for anyone not in that class.  This time it has to be broad-based, or our grandchildren and their children will be back staring at this same state of affairs.  If this 1T fails in that regard, the next 2T will be explosive.

Even more so than the 1960s? That was certainly an explosive time to say the least.

When a problem recurs and is either ignored or downgraded to the point of irrelevance, it will fester and reemerge later in a more virulent form.  Race has already been down that road more than once.  So have income and wealth inequality.  Failing to address them again won't be taken lightly in the 2T.

[beechnut79]

(01-19-2021, 11:45 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 10:54 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 11:31 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-17-2021, 08:40 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It will not be as inequitable. A new consensus will be that if the economic order and political stability are to be maintained, then people other than owners and executives must have a stake in the system.

The last 1T equalized the economic lives of white Americans, and did next to nothing for anyone not in that class.  This time it has to be broad-based, or our grandchildren and their children will be back staring at this same state of affairs.  If this 1T fails in that regard, the next 2T will be explosive.

Even more so than the 1960s? That was certainly an explosive time to say the least.

When a problem recurs and is either ignored or downgraded to the point of irrelevance, it will fester and reemerge later in a more virulent form.  Race has already been down that road more than once.  So have income and wealth inequality.  Failing to address them again won't be taken lightly in the 2T.

Sometimes malaise seems to stay stuck in place regardless of who ascends to the helm. The current mayor of Chicago who possesses the triple threat of being black, female and gay, is supposedly passionate enough to think outside the box and attempt to revitalize long neglected neighborhoods of the city. Yet critics say that she isn’t doing enough. Not sure whether this story gained national notoriety but she is also receiving flak about a botched raid on a social worker’s home even though she wasn’t mayor yet when it happened.

[nguyenivy]

(10-29-2020, 06:38 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

That's the way highs are.  You get to conform to the majority and if you don't like it, tough luck.  You may have to hang in there until the awakening.

1st-wave Millennial here concerned we may not even be alive by the time the next Awakening arrives. Usually people of our cohort (Hero) don't take part in Awakenings or are just too old to care, right? I wonder if we're the worst cohort in the set as we're way too young to enjoy the 3T, then there's the 4T, then there's the conformist world of the post-4T/1T. This time around our crisis may just be the virus impacts, so no war (we really do not need one anyway now - we have enough bad times from COVID) there for the 'Hero' to shine.

If COVID-19 work-from-home remains, we may see a High full of refinement of home life like in the 1950s where people who could afford it moved to bigger suburban houses. Small apartments won't be in demand if we both work & live at home. Those work if most of life is spent away from home with the apt used as just a bed, closet, & shower.

[pbrower2a]

(01-31-2021, 03:28 PM)nguyenivy Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 06:38 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

That's the way highs are.  You get to conform to the majority and if you don't like it, tough luck.  You may have to hang in there until the awakening.

1st-wave Millennial here concerned we may not even be alive by the time the next Awakening arrives. Usually people of our cohort (Hero) don't take part in Awakenings or are just too old to care, right? I wonder if we're the worst cohort in the set as we're way too young to enjoy the 3T, then there's the 4T, then there's the conformist world of the post-4T/1T. This time around our crisis may just be the virus impacts, so no war (we really do not need one anyway now - we have enough bad times from COVID) there for the 'Hero' to shine.

If COVID-19 work-from-home remains, we may see a High full of refinement of home life like in the 1950s where people who could afford it moved to bigger suburban houses. Small apartments won't be in demand if we both work & live at home. Those work if most of life is spent away from home with the apt used as just a bed, closet, & shower.

That would compel people to act more like business owners and less like a proletariat. Good reason exists for concentrating people in offices rather than letting them do clerical work at home. People might pay attention to some lasagna cooked from scratch while going through images of documents. The perfect office is a place of clinical blandness with no distractions. Tiny cubicles with white walls so that the employee can't see what is going on outside that cubicle, but a supervisor can easily look inside?

[David Horn]

(01-19-2021, 09:34 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(01-19-2021, 11:45 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 10:54 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 11:31 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-17-2021, 08:40 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It will not be as inequitable. A new consensus will be that if the economic order and political stability are to be maintained, then people other than owners and executives must have a stake in the system.

The last 1T equalized the economic lives of white Americans, and did next to nothing for anyone not in that class.  This time it has to be broad-based, or our grandchildren and their children will be back staring at this same state of affairs.  If this 1T fails in that regard, the next 2T will be explosive.

Even more so than the 1960s? That was certainly an explosive time to say the least.

When a problem recurs and is either ignored or downgraded to the point of irrelevance, it will fester and reemerge later in a more virulent form.  Race has already been down that road more than once.  So have income and wealth inequality.  Failing to address them again won't be taken lightly in the 2T.

Sometimes malaise seems to stay stuck in place regardless of who ascends to the helm. The current mayor of Chicago who possesses the triple threat of being black, female and gay, is supposedly passionate enough to think outside the box and attempt to revitalize long neglected neighborhoods of the city. Yet critics say that she isn’t doing enough. Not sure whether this story gained national notoriety but she is also receiving flak about a botched raid on a social worker’s home even though she wasn’t mayor yet when it happened.

Politics is the art of the possible, and Chicago is a real challenge.  As the Blue sitting in a pool of Red, the city has to solve problems without the help of the state much of the time.  That makes it hard to say the least.  My brother lives downstate, and is typical in trashing Chicago but expecting it to be there when needed.

[jleagans]

(01-31-2021, 03:28 PM)nguyenivy Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 06:38 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

That's the way highs are.  You get to conform to the majority and if you don't like it, tough luck.  You may have to hang in there until the awakening.

1st-wave Millennial here concerned we may not even be alive by the time the next Awakening arrives. Usually people of our cohort (Hero) don't take part in Awakenings or are just too old to care, right? I wonder if we're the worst cohort in the set as we're way too young to enjoy the 3T, then there's the 4T, then there's the conformist world of the post-4T/1T. This time around our crisis may just be the virus impacts, so no war (we really do not need one anyway now - we have enough bad times from COVID) there for the 'Hero' to shine.

If COVID-19 work-from-home remains, we may see a High full of refinement of home life like in the 1950s where people who could afford it moved to bigger suburban houses. Small apartments won't be in demand if we both work & live at home. Those work if most of life is spent away from home with the apt used as just a bed, closet, & shower.

Nah Millennials/Heroes have it the best.  The toughest part of life is done by middle age with us being able to reap the rewards and rebuild communities in the arrangements newly needed from the Awakening.

[pbrower2a]

(01-18-2021, 11:31 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-17-2021, 08:40 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It will not be as inequitable. A new consensus will be that if the economic order and political stability are to be maintained, then people other than owners and executives must have a stake in the system.

The last 1T equalized the economic lives of white Americans, and did next to nothing for anyone not in that class.  This time it has to be broad-based, or our grandchildren and their children will be back staring at this same state of affairs.  If this 1T fails in that regard, the next 2T will be explosive.

Undeniable. But let us remember that going into the last Crisis few people other than WASPS (whether semi-aristocratic Southerners, New England Brahmins, the NYC-era elite (a mixture of Dutch, English and French Huguenots who were hard to distinguish), and some Quaker descendants were doing well. America did have its yeoman farmers often of German or Scandinavian descent, but they were far from an elite.  A few Irish were doing well... but very few, those connected largely to political machines. Some Jews were starting to Make It, but thevast majority of Jews were still dirt-poor. 

World War II may have done more to create new opportunities for competent people not WASP than anything after initial settlement. People not WASP could make rank, and that was good for getting many into the  middle class. 

Of course we could use a new New Deal or Marshall Plan for the poor of all ethnic groups.

[beechnut79]

(02-01-2021, 12:21 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-19-2021, 09:34 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(01-19-2021, 11:45 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 10:54 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 11:31 AM)David Horn Wrote: The last 1T equalized the economic lives of white Americans, and did next to nothing for anyone not in that class.  This time it has to be broad-based, or our grandchildren and their children will be back staring at this same state of affairs.  If this 1T fails in that regard, the next 2T will be explosive.

Even more so than the 1960s? That was certainly an explosive time to say the least.

When a problem recurs and is either ignored or downgraded to the point of irrelevance, it will fester and reemerge later in a more virulent form.  Race has already been down that road more than once.  So have income and wealth inequality.  Failing to address them again won't be taken lightly in the 2T.

Sometimes malaise seems to stay stuck in place regardless of who ascends to the helm. The current mayor of Chicago who possesses the triple threat of being black, female and gay, is supposedly passionate enough to think outside the box and attempt to revitalize long neglected neighborhoods of the city. Yet critics say that she isn’t doing enough. Not sure whether this story gained national notoriety but she is also receiving flak about a botched raid on a social worker’s home even though she wasn’t mayor yet when it happened.

Politics is the art of the possible, and Chicago is a real challenge.  As the Blue sitting in a pool of Red, the city has to solve problems without the help of the state much of the time.  That makes it hard to say the least.  My brother lives downstate, and is typical in trashing Chicago but expecting it to be there when needed.

The city was also trashed by suburban residents a lot when I was growing up. Of course now there is more of a peaceful marriage between city and suburbs now that the latter ain’t nearly as bland and lily white as they used to be. And some of the issues long associated with cities are now in many of the suburbs, especially those south of the city limits, such as Harvey and Dolton, the latter of which was highlighted in a story I stumbled upon just a couple of days back. In a half century the town went from nearly all white to 90 percent black, and has become quite poor and saddled with debt.

[Captain Genet]

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

The 1T is supposed to be dominated by Millennials. They are certainly more dimorphic than gen X, you see more young women in dresses and young men with beards than in the early 2000s, but you can opt of gender roles by identifying as gay, trans or non-binary. I cannot imagine this situation changing during the 1T.

BTW it's a misconception that the previous 1T was right-wing, certainly the anti-communist paranoia in the US was a right-wing phenomenon, but in terms of culture the 1950s brought the bikini, the Kinsey report, beatniks, Elvis Presley, and a lot of science fiction that prepared ground for the counterculture.

I would be more afraid of the 2T, if it is indeed of the Apollonian variety, there will be a religious/philosophical movement pushing for ascetic morality as it happened during the social gospel awakening.

[David Horn]

(02-26-2021, 03:03 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

The 1T is supposed to be dominated by Millennials. They are certainly more dimorphic than gen X, you see more young women in dresses and young men with beards than in the early 2000s, but you can opt of gender roles by identifying as gay, trans or non-binary. I cannot imagine this situation changing during the 1T.

BTW it's a misconception that the previous 1T was right-wing, certainly the anti-communist paranoia in the US was a right-wing phenomenon, but in terms of culture the 1950s brought the bikini, the Kinsey report, beatniks, Elvis Presley, and a lot of science fiction that prepared ground for the counterculture.

I would be more afraid of the 2T, if it is indeed of the Apollonian variety, there will be a religious/philosophical movement pushing for ascetic morality as it happened during the social gospel awakening.

Great points.  As a person who lived through the last 1T, I can agree with your assessment up to a point. The point of departure is the line between establishment culture, with its Hayes Code, social stratification and iron rules, and the more Bohemian culture that was always there and tolerated -- again, up to a point. I never fit completely in either, so had the opportunity to observe both. The Bohemian culture evolved into the Hippie culture of the '60s and '70s.  The establishment culture became the foundation of the Moral Majority and the Christian Right. The former won the culture war, but the latter won the power.  Now, it's time for another change.

[Tim Randal Walker]

If I understand correctly, 1Ts can be good times for Civics if they share the majoritarian culture. It can certainly be a good time in a material sense. Last time around the suburbs were created for the G.I. generation.

[Eric the Green]

(02-26-2021, 03:03 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

The 1T is supposed to be dominated by Millennials. They are certainly more dimorphic than gen X, you see more young women in dresses and young men with beards than in the early 2000s, but you can opt of gender roles by identifying as gay, trans or non-binary. I cannot imagine this situation changing during the 1T.

BTW it's a misconception that the previous 1T was right-wing, certainly the anti-communist paranoia in the US was a right-wing phenomenon, but in terms of culture the 1950s brought the bikini, the Kinsey report, beatniks, Elvis Presley, and a lot of science fiction that prepared ground for the counterculture.

I would be more afraid of the 2T, if it is indeed of the Apollonian variety, there will be a religious/philosophical movement pushing for ascetic morality as it happened during the social gospel awakening.

I would not be too concerned about it, myself. Historians have pointed out that social freedoms, once gained, are seldom reversed; at least for modern western societies. In the Social Gospel Awakening, there was a lot of experimenting with free love, more casual dress, new sports and outdoor activities, new kinds of music that opened the way to jazz, new-thought religions that are not fundamentalist and emphasize personal experience, new arts inspired by drug use, etc., along with the prohibition movement, anti-saloon movement, fundamentalist movements, etc. But then, the Consciousness Revolution also had its conservative elements. Awakenings are much more alike than they are different according to the double rhythm.

Thanks for your thoughts.

[Eric the Green]

(02-04-2021, 02:20 AM)jleagans Wrote:

(01-31-2021, 03:28 PM)nguyenivy Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 06:38 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

That's the way highs are.  You get to conform to the majority and if you don't like it, tough luck.  You may have to hang in there until the awakening.

1st-wave Millennial here concerned we may not even be alive by the time the next Awakening arrives. Usually people of our cohort (Hero) don't take part in Awakenings or are just too old to care, right? I wonder if we're the worst cohort in the set as we're way too young to enjoy the 3T, then there's the 4T, then there's the conformist world of the post-4T/1T. This time around our crisis may just be the virus impacts, so no war (we really do not need one anyway now - we have enough bad times from COVID) there for the 'Hero' to shine.

If COVID-19 work-from-home remains, we may see a High full of refinement of home life like in the 1950s where people who could afford it moved to bigger suburban houses. Small apartments won't be in demand if we both work & live at home. Those work if most of life is spent away from home with the apt used as just a bed, closet, & shower.

Nah Millennials/Heroes have it the best.  The toughest part of life is done by middle age with us being able to reap the rewards and rebuild communities in the arrangements newly needed from the Awakening.

Probably, at least materially. Civics miss out on a youth that widens their experience of life, while civics stay mired in cultural and philosophical conformity and old ways. I would say it's the 4T/Crisis from which they learn lessons and conceive rebuilding plans which they help carry out in the following 1T and 2T. However on a more material, political level, they are more collegial and communitarian, and this furthers social progress and functionality. It's a mixed bag.

[pbrower2a]

(02-01-2021, 12:21 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-19-2021, 09:34 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(01-19-2021, 11:45 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 10:54 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(01-18-2021, 11:31 AM)David Horn Wrote: The last 1T equalized the economic lives of white Americans, and did next to nothing for anyone not in that class.  This time it has to be broad-based, or our grandchildren and their children will be back staring at this same state of affairs.  If this 1T fails in that regard, the next 2T will be explosive.

Even more so than the 1960s? That was certainly an explosive time to say the least.

When a problem recurs and is either ignored or downgraded to the point of irrelevance, it will fester and reemerge later in a more virulent form.  Race has already been down that road more than once.  So have income and wealth inequality.  Failing to address them again won't be taken lightly in the 2T.

Sometimes malaise seems to stay stuck in place regardless of who ascends to the helm. The current mayor of Chicago who possesses the triple threat of being black, female and gay, is supposedly passionate enough to think outside the box and attempt to revitalize long neglected neighborhoods of the city. Yet critics say that she isn’t doing enough. Not sure whether this story gained national notoriety but she is also receiving flak about a botched raid on a social worker’s home even though she wasn’t mayor yet when it happened.

Politics is the art of the possible, and Chicago is a real challenge.  As the Blue sitting in a pool of Red, the city has to solve problems without the help of the state much of the time.  That makes it hard to say the least.  My brother lives downstate, and is typical in trashing Chicago but expecting it to be there when needed.

Chicago is the economic window on the economic world for the rich farmland of northern Illinois. Chicago has been the way station for trans-shipment of bulk commodities from one mode of transportation to another almost from its foundation. It went from a portage between the Des Plaines River navigable by flatboats to Lake Michigan in times before the railroads to the zone in which goods go between rail, river, road, or inland sea transportation (Lake Michigan is a freshwater sea more than it is a lake). Movement from one mode of transportation to another used to be a labor-intensive activity. Add to this, Greater Chicago was an early center for steel production because of the limestone, the bulkiest component of iron and steel production. Local limestone met iron ore from Minnesota and coal from southern Illinois in Gary to make the steel in machinery from reapers and rail cars. Naturally such a place also became a financial hub and cultural center.  No other city is in both the Great Lakes region and in the navigation zone of the Mississippi River. Containers have taken much of the labor out of transportation.

Geographic roles do not change in the generational cycle. Some things do not change,

[beechnut79]

(02-28-2021, 12:08 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-26-2021, 03:03 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

The 1T is supposed to be dominated by Millennials. They are certainly more dimorphic than gen X, you see more young women in dresses and young men with beards than in the early 2000s, but you can opt of gender roles by identifying as gay, trans or non-binary. I cannot imagine this situation changing during the 1T.

BTW it's a misconception that the previous 1T was right-wing, certainly the anti-communist paranoia in the US was a right-wing phenomenon, but in terms of culture the 1950s brought the bikini, the Kinsey report, beatniks, Elvis Presley, and a lot of science fiction that prepared ground for the counterculture.

I would be more afraid of the 2T, if it is indeed of the Apollonian variety, there will be a religious/philosophical movement pushing for ascetic morality as it happened during the social gospel awakening.

I would not be too concerned about it, myself. Historians have pointed out that social freedoms, once gained, are seldom reversed; at least for modern western societies. In the Social Gospel Awakening, there was a lot of experimenting with free love, more casual dress, new sports and outdoor activities, new kinds of music that opened the way to jazz, new-thought religions that are not fundamentalist and emphasize personal experience, new arts inspired by drug use, etc., along with the prohibition movement, anti-saloon movement, fundamentalist movements, etc. But then, the Consciousness Revolution also had its conservative elements. Awakenings are much more alike than they are different according to the double rhythm.

Thanks for your thoughts.

One of the exceptions though was that in many areas 18 to 20 year olds had won the right to drink. By the mid 1980s that was lost throughout the US as the minimum age of 21 was restored. More recently the age for purchasing tobacco products was raised as well. Why is it that we are the only place in the world where you have to be 21? And might the issue be resurrected in the next 2T?

[pbrower2a]

(02-28-2021, 09:46 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(02-28-2021, 12:08 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-26-2021, 03:03 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

The 1T is supposed to be dominated by Millennials. They are certainly more dimorphic than gen X, you see more young women in dresses and young men with beards than in the early 2000s, but you can opt of gender roles by identifying as gay, trans or non-binary. I cannot imagine this situation changing during the 1T.

BTW it's a misconception that the previous 1T was right-wing, certainly the anti-communist paranoia in the US was a right-wing phenomenon, but in terms of culture the 1950s brought the bikini, the Kinsey report, beatniks, Elvis Presley, and a lot of science fiction that prepared ground for the counterculture.

I would be more afraid of the 2T, if it is indeed of the Apollonian variety, there will be a religious/philosophical movement pushing for ascetic morality as it happened during the social gospel awakening.

I would not be too concerned about it, myself. Historians have pointed out that social freedoms, once gained, are seldom reversed; at least for modern western societies. In the Social Gospel Awakening, there was a lot of experimenting with free love, more casual dress, new sports and outdoor activities, new kinds of music that opened the way to jazz, new-thought religions that are not fundamentalist and emphasize personal experience, new arts inspired by drug use, etc., along with the prohibition movement, anti-saloon movement, fundamentalist movements, etc. But then, the Consciousness Revolution also had its conservative elements. Awakenings are much more alike than they are different according to the double rhythm.

Thanks for your thoughts.

One of the exceptions though was that in many areas 18 to 20 year olds had won the right to drink. By the mid 1980s that was lost throughout the US as the minimum age of 21 was restored. More recently the age for purchasing tobacco products was raised as well. Why is it that we are the only place in the world where you have to be 21? And might the issue be resurrected in the next 2T?

16-year-old and 17-year-old youth can be extremely sophisticated and even philosophical -- as shown by the high-school students who appeared before the news media in the wake of the Parkland shooting. They can have deep and mature friendships and grieve convincingly. They can be as chilly rationalists as middle-aged people. There are high-school kids who are fully adult in intellect. But their biology is still immature. Figure that one person in 100 has an IQ of 130, and a seventeen-year-old that intelligent thinks more like a graduate student than like his peers.  

Alcohol is completely unsuited to people who are not physical adults, and physical adulthood  does not arrive for some people until they are 25 or so. That is when someone is biologically mature enough for alcohol. 

There were three problems with 18-year-old drinkers. One was that the average 18-year-old has the equivalent of an IQ of 90 for an average adult. Is there much that one fully trusts to 18-year-olds? Certainly not highly-responsible work. Probably not elective office. Second, 18-year-olds were supplying alcoholic drink to people as young as 14... and for anyone not nearly adult, alcohol is a hard drug.  Third, eighteen-year-olds are horrible drivers. I remember how I drove when I was sixteen, which was like someone eighty years old. I ran over lots of curbs   and often stopped far short of stop lines. If I drove at night I hallucinated. I am surprised that I did not get stopped for DUI even if I was completely sober. Add alcohol to the usual teenage driver (my only virtues were that I was timid and cautious) and just imagine the nightmare.   

What did remain was the eighteen-year-old vote.

[Eric the Green]

Agreed with Mr. Paul Brower

[beechnut79]

(02-28-2021, 02:06 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(02-28-2021, 09:46 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(02-28-2021, 12:08 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-26-2021, 03:03 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(10-29-2020, 02:05 PM)Camz Wrote: I wonder how the revival of gender roles will affect gay, trans, and non-binary people. I'm really scared for that honestly. If there will be a new wave of cis-heteronormativity I'm really not gonna enjoy this High.

The 1T is supposed to be dominated by Millennials. They are certainly more dimorphic than gen X, you see more young women in dresses and young men with beards than in the early 2000s, but you can opt of gender roles by identifying as gay, trans or non-binary. I cannot imagine this situation changing during the 1T.

BTW it's a misconception that the previous 1T was right-wing, certainly the anti-communist paranoia in the US was a right-wing phenomenon, but in terms of culture the 1950s brought the bikini, the Kinsey report, beatniks, Elvis Presley, and a lot of science fiction that prepared ground for the counterculture.

I would be more afraid of the 2T, if it is indeed of the Apollonian variety, there will be a religious/philosophical movement pushing for ascetic morality as it happened during the social gospel awakening.

I would not be too concerned about it, myself. Historians have pointed out that social freedoms, once gained, are seldom reversed; at least for modern western societies. In the Social Gospel Awakening, there was a lot of experimenting with free love, more casual dress, new sports and outdoor activities, new kinds of music that opened the way to jazz, new-thought religions that are not fundamentalist and emphasize personal experience, new arts inspired by drug use, etc., along with the prohibition movement, anti-saloon movement, fundamentalist movements, etc. But then, the Consciousness Revolution also had its conservative elements. Awakenings are much more alike than they are different according to the double rhythm.

Thanks for your thoughts.

One of the exceptions though was that in many areas 18 to 20 year olds had won the right to drink. By the mid 1980s that was lost throughout the US as the minimum age of 21 was restored. More recently the age for purchasing tobacco products was raised as well. Why is it that we are the only place in the world where you have to be 21? And might the issue be resurrected in the next 2T?

16-year-old and 17-year-old youth can be extremely sophisticated and even philosophical -- as shown by the high-school students who appeared before the news media in the wake of the Parkland shooting. They can have deep and mature friendships and grieve convincingly. They can be as chilly rationalists as middle-aged people. There are high-school kids who are fully adult in intellect. But their biology is still immature. Figure that one person in 100 has an IQ of 130, and a seventeen-year-old that intelligent thinks more like a graduate student than like his peers.  

Alcohol is completely unsuited to people who are not physical adults, and physical adulthood  does not arrive for some people until they are 25 or so. That is when someone is biologically mature enough for alcohol. 

There were three problems with 18-year-old drinkers. One was that the average 18-year-old has the equivalent of an IQ of 90 for an average adult. Is there much that one fully trusts to 18-year-olds? Certainly not highly-responsible work. Probably not elective office. Second, 18-year-olds were supplying alcoholic drink to people as young as 14... and for anyone not nearly adult, alcohol is a hard drug.  Third, eighteen-year-olds are horrible drivers. I remember how I drove when I was sixteen, which was like someone eighty years old. I ran over lots of curbs   and often stopped far short of stop lines. If I drove at night I hallucinated. I am surprised that I did not get stopped for DUI even if I was completely sober. Add alcohol to the usual teenage driver (my only virtues were that I was timid and cautious) and just imagine the nightmare.   

What did remain was the eighteen-year-old vote.

But yet this is only in the US. Canada and Australia have lower drinking ages despite also being in the car culture. FCOL, in some European countries you can purchase beer at McDonald’s as they don’t have the fetish for ID checking that we do. There are a few YouTube videos that explore the pros and cons.

[David Horn]

(02-28-2021, 09:46 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: One of the exceptions though was that in many areas 18 to 20 year olds had won the right to drink. By the mid 1980s that was lost throughout the US as the minimum age of 21 was restored. More recently the age for purchasing tobacco products was raised as well. Why is it that we are the only place in the world where you have to be 21? And might the issue be resurrected in the next 2T?

The 18 age rule was driven by the draft. It's hard to tell anyone that they can be drafted to fight in a war, but can't drink or smoke until they're 21. Of course, that went away and so did the more permissive rules for tobacco and alcohol.

[Captain Genet]

(02-28-2021, 12:08 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Historians have pointed out that social freedoms, once gained, are seldom reversed; at least for modern western societies.

Let's point out some counterexamples:
-Freedom of smoking cigarettes is declining. Many countries have banned smoking in public, which would be unthinkable in the 1950s.
-Very Inclusivist countries like Canada and Sweden made paying for sex illegal
-Age of consent was also raised in many countries during the Millennial saeculum

It might be the case that "social freedoms" were on the rise because Christian piety was in decline. If a morally demanding religion or philosophy becomes popular again during the 2T, social freedoms will be restricted throughout the next 3T and 4T.