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(03-15-2017, 07:05 AM)Odin Wrote: (03-14-2017, 05:51 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Quote:I'm assuming that was supposed to be some kind subtle jab insinuating that concerns over Russian influence are a modern day witch hunt...
No, no, that was a not-so-subtle jab over campus hysterics, which we have discussed recently.
I am disappointed in you, Odin. I expect Eric to be stupid, you I just hold to be tragically misguided. You're not helping my case right now. 
Well, some of the college campus stupidity is witch-hunt-like, too. Russia-gate was just the first thing that popped in my head at the moment.
And IMO I would consider a lot of the people supporting Alt-Right populists to be the ones who are tragically misguided. A lot of them identify completely valid issues, Muslim immigrants in Europe not assimilating into Western culture, the EU being technocratic and unaccountable, educated people in the major cities thinking everyone else are just dumb hicks, treating identity as something only minority groups are allowed to have, etc. But the Alt-Right uses all these issues to promote xenophobia and romantic nostalgia that does not lead to workable solutions.
Whereas a lot of the people on the Left deny those issues exist and/or insist that nobody is allowed to talk about them. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some xenophobia and romantic nostalgia to promote.
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(03-15-2017, 06:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (03-14-2017, 08:26 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Struck a nerve, did I? 
But unlikely to have stimulated any in you.
Honestly, Eric, I have never found your comments particularly stimulating.
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(03-15-2017, 04:27 AM)Galen Wrote: (03-14-2017, 07:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Quote:Like it or not the petrodollar will eventually end and the largess of the federal government will implode in on itself.
Yeah, I don't think a lot of progressives have grappled with what the end of imperium, "white privilege", and a shift to sustainability will actually mean in material terms, particularly for them.
They haven't. Truth is they have this nasty tendency to think in linear trend lines that last forever. Those of us in the real world know better.
This is a tendency that I've noticed with progressives on this board, and you'd think that on a forum about a cyclical model of history they would know better.
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(03-15-2017, 07:12 AM)Odin Wrote: (03-15-2017, 04:27 AM)Galen Wrote: (03-14-2017, 07:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Quote:Like it or not the petrodollar will eventually end and the largess of the federal government will implode in on itself.
Yeah, I don't think a lot of progressives have grappled with what the end of imperium, "white privilege", and a shift to sustainability will actually mean in material terms, particularly for them.
They haven't. Truth is they have this nasty tendency to think in linear trend lines that last forever. Those of us in the real world know better.
Do you know what the next winning Powerball numbers are going to be, too? 
I understand perfectly well that linear trends don't last forever, but, as shown by how wrong futurists often are, making ideologically dogmatic statements abiut the future like "the largess of the federal government will implode in on itself" just sets you up to look like a fool.
Since that was my prediction and not Galen's I'll address it here.
1. The US produces very little in the way of goods and exports primarily food and raw materials. (real third world type of situation)
2. The US imports lots of just about everything else. It pays for it with its own currency because people want that currency. But since the US mainly sells food and raw materials it clearly isn't to buy finished goods from the US. So why?
3. The US Dollar is used in international trade because it can always be converted into oil. Sure people may accept it for copper or rubber or widgits but it all comes down to petrolium. AKA the Petrodollar.
4. A group of states that can defend themselves decides they don't want dollars and will take something else instead for their oil. The petrodollar quakes.
5. Situation 4 becomes the norm, large inflows of dollars make their way back into the country and the USD is no longer seen as being worth being held for other currencies or gold for example leads to a flood of delayed inflation coming home all at once.
6. With this inflation and loss of reserve status the Federal Government will need to raise taxes and cut spending and likely both at the same time.
In short my prediction is that the sun will rise at some point, and when it does it will be in the east.
Considering that the conflicts in Iraq, Libya and possibly Syria are all related to the Petrodollar is telling. Saber rattling with Russia and Iran only tells me that Iran's acceptance of RMB and Rupee for oil and the Russians taking RMB, Yen, and Euro for oil has already severely weakened the petrodollar.
Saudi is starting to run short of oil so when they go, the oil will be left with Iran, Russia, and a few countries with no government currently. The empire is in its death throws. Get used to it. If we're lucky Trump will cut a Gorbachev figure and we'll have managed collapse, if he fails we'll have unmanaged collapse.
But all empires inevitably collapse. Or have you forgotten about Egypt, Greece, Rome, Maya, Olmec, Anasazi and the various incarnations of China?
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(03-15-2017, 08:42 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: (03-15-2017, 06:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (03-14-2017, 08:26 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Struck a nerve, did I?
But unlikely to have stimulated any in you.
Honestly, Eric, I have never found your comments particularly stimulating.
Usually the only comments that EtI makes that I find stimulating involve his taste (or rather lack of taste) in music. That manages to stimulate my gag reflex but that's about it.
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I wouldn't oversell the US loss of manufacturing too much. It's still a major manufacturing power, with exports in aircraft (subsidized by the MIC) and various capital goods outweighing food in dollar terms.
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(03-14-2017, 05:46 PM)Odin Wrote: (03-14-2017, 05:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (03-14-2017, 05:28 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: The exact same northern tradition that burned heretics at the stake, too.
And you contend that is what advocates of stronger social government want today?
NO, the tradition that is most likely to adopt this policy here in the USA is the religious right, especially if aligned with the white supremacists. In case you don't recall, these groups supported Mr. Drump.
I'm assuming that was supposed to be some kind subtle jab insinuating that concerns over Russian influence are a modern day witch hunt...
Think Joe McCarthy is really turning over in his grave?
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(03-14-2017, 06:13 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: (03-14-2017, 05:51 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Quote:I'm assuming that was supposed to be some kind subtle jab insinuating that concerns over Russian influence are a modern day witch hunt...
No, no, that was a not-so-subtle jab over campus hysterics, which we have discussed recently.
I am disappointed in you, Odin. I expect Eric to be stupid, you I just hold to be tragically misguided. You're not helping my case right now.
Sorry dude, Odin is worse than tragically misguided. Unfortunately he hasn't demonstrated himself to be stupid yet either. Impervious to facts that don't conform to his world view? Certainly but that just means he's more or less normal. I don't often agree with Mr. Bob but he's right in that people don't change their values unless they are harshly shown that they are not working.
--
Back on topic.
I would say that to make Government great again you have to make the federal government smaller again. The federal government has a really difficult time being all things to all people--so it should concentrate on the enumerated powers and humans rights as well as defense and turn other issues over to the states.
Welfare should be a state issue. Minimum wage should be a state issue. Healthcare should be a state issue. What the states don't want to do or can't do well should be left to cities and counties to handle.
Like it or not the petrodollar will eventually end and the largess of the federal government will implode in on itself.
This is why there are many who believe that the US as we know it may sooner if not later come to an end. Whether it will break up in the way the old Soviet Union did is uncertain, but there are those who feel that the time has come when the idea of 50 states under one central government no longer makes sense. What will replace it is unclear, but who knows if the day may come when a resident of Illinois would need a passport to visit Wisconsin. Not hoping it will come to that, but probably not totally out of the question.
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(03-14-2017, 08:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I don't think there's much hope for progressives to turn into reactionaries like kinser did, SomeGuy. If there's any hope, it's that reactionaries like you will become progressives. At least, if you grow a brain.
Yes, I think progressives understand that white vs. colored is not a zero sum game, because what's good for some people doesn't have to hurt others, in an economy in which all have good opportunities. Which is the kind of economy that progressives create and conservatives destroy so that a few rich people can benefit instead. Yes, I think that a shift to sustainability will be better than our food and water sources being destroyed, our cities flooded and our wildlife killed, and that economy depends on ecology. We understand that a shift to new industries creates jobs, while hanging on to old dirty ones for the convenience of a few CEOs does not. Yes, progressives understand that maintaining an expensive MIC, just so America can be number one, siphons off the real prosperity could be created by reining in this waste. Yes, progressives understand that world order is maintained by multi-lateral agreements and not by hegemonic empires.
Too bad you don't seem to understand these things, and call people "stupid" or "misguided" who do.
But weren't most of those "old, dirty" industries already destroyed in the US during the deindustrialization mania of the 1970s and 1980s? The shift to high-tech information created some jobs, yes, but those industries are far less labor intensive and therefore not as many are needed, save for the burgeoning service industry which concentrates mainly on low-wage unstable employment. And much wildlife area along with food producing area was destroyed to make way for shopping malls and office buildings. With the advent of online shopping fewer of these will be needed as well. In fact there already exists a huge vacuum in shopping districts.
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(03-14-2017, 09:18 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: (03-14-2017, 07:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Quote:Sorry dude, Odin is worse than tragically misguided. Unfortunately he hasn't demonstrated himself to be stupid yet either. Impervious to facts that don't conform to his world view? Certainly but that just means he's more or less normal. I don't often agree with Mr. Bob but he's right in that people don't change their values unless they are harshly shown that they are not working.
I don't blame him too much. He's still young, it's a fairly widely peddled and up until recently quite successful belief system, and like a lot of people from the sticks he's too insecure of his social status to buck it right now. He's not stupid, he reads, and it's much easier to belief in some of the more egregiously stupid progressive shibboleths when you're not getting your nose rubbed in their contradictions on a daily basis.
There's hope for him yet.
Quote:Like it or not the petrodollar will eventually end and the largess of the federal government will implode in on itself.
Yeah, I don't think a lot of progressives have grappled with what the end of imperium, "white privilege", and a shift to sustainability will actually mean in material terms, particularly for them.
1, I welcome the end of empire. The imperial project is a black hole that sucks everything worthwhile to oblivion.
2. "White privilege" is a fiction held by snowflakes that all white people are "privileged" . This concept is silly and prone to open a can of worms.
3. Sustainability will be painful, but less so than stopping behaviors which are unsustainable. Things that are unsustainable, at some point stop.
1. Are we destined to become the modern-day Romans?
2. If the feds secede more power to the states, could the former Confederacy basically have carte blanche to restore at least some aspects of Jim Crow, or will the feds retain enough clout for this not to happen?
3. Stopping behavoirs which are unsustainable? You mean like "free love" become unsustainable with the advent of the AIDS scare? Would the sexual revolution have ended even if there were no AIDS or equivalent?
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(03-15-2017, 07:12 AM)Odin Wrote: (03-15-2017, 04:27 AM)Galen Wrote: (03-14-2017, 07:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Quote:Like it or not the petrodollar will eventually end and the largess of the federal government will implode in on itself.
Yeah, I don't think a lot of progressives have grappled with what the end of imperium, "white privilege", and a shift to sustainability will actually mean in material terms, particularly for them.
They haven't. Truth is they have this nasty tendency to think in linear trend lines that last forever. Those of us in the real world know better.
Do you know what the next winning Powerball numbers are going to be, too?
I understand perfectly well that linear trends don't last forever, but, as shown by how wrong futurists often are, making ideologically dogmatic statements abiut the future like "the largess of the federal government will implode in on itself" just sets you up to look like a fool.
Speaking of futurist being wrong, to me the biggest thing they got wrong was that the modern technology which was still in its infancy in the 1960s and 1970s was going to lead to shorter work hours and increasing emphasis on leisure. Seems obvious that precisely the opposite happened, and the time should come when the society rediscovers the hidden power of play. I wonder how far away we are from that? Seems there are more workaholics than ever.
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Quote:1. Are we destined to become the modern-day Romans?
We've been modeling ourselves off them since the Revolution. That's why we have a Senate, and the early government buildings, state and federal, were largely done in neoclassical style. In terms of parallels, I'd say (with a tip of the hat to Spengler and Toynbee) that we are more around the era of the Grachii and Sulla than the fall of the Empire.
Quote:2. If the feds secede more power to the states, could the former Confederacy basically have carte blanche to restore at least some aspects of Jim Crow, or will the feds retain enough clout for this not to happen?
Do you live in the South? Was 1965 yesterday? How old are you?
Quote:3. Stopping behavoirs which are unsustainable? You mean like "free love" become unsustainable with the advent of the AIDS scare? Would the sexual revolution have ended even if there were no AIDS or equivalent?
No, he and I both were discussing environmental/economic practices more than purely social ones. As for the specific point raised, you could argue that things like gay marriage and the whole transgender thingamaroo are part of it, suggesting it hasn't ended at all. If you mean the "free love" thing specifically, while it is difficult to speak authoritatively on hypotheticals, I imagine it would have petered out on its own anyways. The history of "free love" type communities in the 19th century, for one, suggest that it isn't really a stable social model.
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(03-15-2017, 08:42 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: (03-15-2017, 06:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (03-14-2017, 08:26 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Struck a nerve, did I?
But unlikely to have stimulated any in you.
Honestly, Eric, I have never found your comments particularly stimulating.
You think that I would find your romantic nostalgia and xenophobia, stimulating either?
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Quote:You think that I would find your romantic nostalgia and xenophobia, stimulating either?
When I post, Eric, stimulating you is about the furthest thing from my mind. If it's stimulation you're after, I'm sure there's a Justin Bieber fan site somewhere for you.
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(03-15-2017, 12:15 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Quote:You think that I would find your romantic nostalgia and xenophobia, stimulating either?
When I post, Eric, stimulating you is about the furthest thing from my mind. If it's stimulation you're after, I'm sure there's a Justin Bieber fan site somewhere for you.
Why would you think my purpose here is to stimulate you, as you implied?
Yes, I always want to follow what Justin is up to. He is an interesting and funny dude. All the more interesting since a lot of older cynics don't think so. His music is fine too; that's the important thing. All the more fine since a lot of older cynics don't think so.
OK, enough of JB; back to your romantic nostalgia for the white supremacist paradise, and how others view it....
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03-15-2017, 12:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2017, 12:29 PM by SomeGuy.)
Quote:Why would you think my purpose here is to stimulate you, as you implied?
I implied no such thing. You said " But unlikely to have stimulated any in you." <Appalling grammar, by the way>
I agreed, and pointed out that I have never found your posts particularly stimulating.
Any implications here, like the introduction of the topic of stimulus in general, are solely on your end.
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You're claiming so does not make it so. Yes you did, yes you did.
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(03-15-2017, 03:15 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You're claiming so does not make it so. Yes you did, yes you did.
Lol. Thanks for living up (down?) to my expectations, Eric. Well done.
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03-15-2017, 03:24 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2017, 03:25 PM by Galen.)
(03-15-2017, 10:41 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: (03-14-2017, 06:13 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Sorry dude, Odin is worse than tragically misguided. Unfortunately he hasn't demonstrated himself to be stupid yet either. Impervious to facts that don't conform to his world view? Certainly but that just means he's more or less normal. I don't often agree with Mr. Bob but he's right in that people don't change their values unless they are harshly shown that they are not working.
--
Back on topic.
I would say that to make Government great again you have to make the federal government smaller again. The federal government has a really difficult time being all things to all people--so it should concentrate on the enumerated powers and humans rights as well as defense and turn other issues over to the states.
Welfare should be a state issue. Minimum wage should be a state issue. Healthcare should be a state issue. What the states don't want to do or can't do well should be left to cities and counties to handle.
Like it or not the petrodollar will eventually end and the largess of the federal government will implode in on itself.
This is why there are many who believe that the US as we know it may sooner if not later come to an end. Whether it will break up in the way the old Soviet Union did is uncertain, but there are those who feel that the time has come when the idea of 50 states under one central government no longer makes sense. What will replace it is unclear, but who knows if the day may come when a resident of Illinois would need a passport to visit Wisconsin. Not hoping it will come to that, but probably not totally out of the question.
There is a range of possibilities going from say Great Britain to the way Rome went out. Given the fiscal, military situation and the fact western governments are determined to import people from the third world makes the Roman scenario look very likely. It really depends on the decisions that society makes so it is not destined. Judging from history their governments get bloated and rigid and refuse to live within their means.
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. -- H.L. Mencken
If one rejects laissez faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action. -- Ludwig von Mises
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(03-15-2017, 03:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: (03-15-2017, 03:15 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You're claiming so does not make it so. Yes you did, yes you did.
Lol. Thanks for living up (down?) to my expectations, Eric. Well done.
As long as your expectations for Eric are below your expectations for your average 2 year old he never disappoints. 
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