I decided to check back here, since it seems pretty obvious that this pandemic crisis is the climax of this 4T and I'm surprised there hasn't been a thread on this already (although I may have missed it).  Nevertheless, here are my thoughts.


Trump is, whether you like it or not, the Gray (orange) Champion of this cycle.  Unless he screws up royally, I don't see him losing to Biden in the election.  Biden's choice of VP is very important as whoever he picks is likely going to be the real president.  I'm guessing he's going to pick Kamala Harris, but I could be wrong.  It's interesting to note that a presidential nominee has never died before the election, but that actually may happen this time considering the ages of the candidates and COVID19.  And even if Biden does manage to survive to the election, he's already in his late 70s so he may not last two terms.

But it's interesting how unimportant these politics seem at this time.  Issues that were huge only a month ago (impeachment, FISA abuses, even climate change) just seem trivial by comparison.  This pandemic is a real crisis unlike anything we've been through.  You would have to go all the way back to WWII to find a crisis that required such a level of sacrifice by the whole population and put us against so common an enemy.  That being said, the hardships they went through is nowhere's near the same as what we're going through.  Our lives have become undeniably a lot easier since then.  But because we've become so accustomed to an easy life, even a mild crisis, like this, seems difficult.  So compared to what we've become accustomed to, this is our version of the WWII climax of the last 4T.

And like the great depression and WWII changed the world permanently, so will this crisis.  The last 4T saw the permanent addition of social safety nets, ie Social Security, unemployment insurance and Medicare.  As a result of this pandemic, we will very likely see the introduction of UBI due to the massive damage this crisis has done to an economy that was booming just a month ago.  Even Republicans are supporting UBI now, and it may replace Social Security and unemployment insurance entirely.  And I don't see us putting the UBI genie back in the bottle once this crisis ends either. Politicians that run on a platform to end UBI will very quickly lose support.  UBI will become the new "third rail" in politics like Social Security has been for so long.

But UBI, by itself, will not be sustainable. For those of you who are familiar with my posts, you'll know that I was always in favor of UBI, but preferred the Gary Johnson model over the Andrew Yang model.  The Gary Johnson "fairtax" model involved switching away from a federal income tax system to a consumption tax system, and using a percentage of the consumption tax to fund a monthly UBI prebate or "tax refund".  The reason being that if UBI was funded by income tax, the incentive to work will collapse.  If the checks were big enough, most people would prefer to collect free government money rather than work, and there wouldn't be enough income tax revenue to fund UBI.  Plus the resentment between the workers funding UBI, and the non-workers collecting UBI will become unsustainable after a point.  At least, if it were funded by a consumption tax, everyone would be paying into it, not just the people with jobs.  Gary Johnson's UBI model could stand the test of time.  Andrew Yangs could not.  So it's likely that we will see something like the fairtax being instituted to keep UBI sustainable.


As more and more schools and companies adopt a work from home model, I have a feeling this is another genie that we will not be able to put back in the bottle.  Work from home will become the norm, except for jobs that can't physically support a remote work option.  School will also adopt more of a remote desktop model, and I see homeschooling becoming way more prevalent after this.

Looking at the big picture, I see this crisis as the death knell for globalization.  The trend towards globalization had already been losing ground with Brexit and Trump's election, but this just killed it.  Borders are more secure than ever, and although it will ease up a bit, I don't see the "open borders" argument regaining any ground any time soon. Yet, despite how socially isolated we've become, we're becoming more connected than ever online.  But I see us ultimately becoming more domestically focused. Economically we're already seeing a major push to rely less on other countries (especially China) for manufactured goods.  This trend is likely to continue as we'd want to be more prepared for another crisis like this.  It's interesting to note that WWII ultimately resulted in increasing globalization.  This crisis is resulting in the opposite.

I am Bill the Piper, but I lost my password and e-mail needed to login, so I created a new account. Anyway, this is the username I use elsewhere on the Net.

Politics 4/10

A large number of countries became democracies, especially in Europe and South America. Bolshevism was eliminated from the global political scene and discredited intellectually. Two reasons to rejoice. Otherwise, the saeculum was quite disappointing. Democracy did not progress, we are still doing 18th century politics rather than switch to something more advanced like liquid democracy. Reagan and Thatcher reversed the economic progress of the last saeculum. Even more worrisome is the growth of identity politics, both on the right and the left.

In the last saeculum there was strong interest in global unity. Anationalism and cosmopolitanism were hot topics among the Missionary generation. The UN was meant as a means to further this end, but it soon become a shiftless bureaucracy with no moral clarity. The 1950s and 1960s saw an explosion of nationalism in Africa and the Middle East, and the 2010s saw the same thing happening in the West. Overall I think there is less cosmopolitan sentiment in today's politics than during the previous cycle.

Culture 2/10

This was a very bad saeculum for culture. I'm afraid this cycle was mostly about popularising casual sex, drugs, junk food, rampant nudity and everyday use of vulgar language. It gave us some exciting entertainment, but I think very little will be remembered in 2100. Personally I would save Star Trek, Rocky movies and Tolkien's mythology, as well as classic rock music from the 1980s. Rap, heavy metal and techno need to die!

Racial prejudice and sexism lost moral acceptance, and I don't need to convince anyone it's a good thing.

Technology 7/10

Here I have some kind words for the Millennial Saeculum. It failed to produce a breakthrough comparable to what Isaac Newton or Albert Einstein have done, but few eras experience one. Practical application of principles discovered the previous cycle allowed enormous progress in computing. Everyone can afford a pocket computer, known as a smart phone. Space related tech also started very well, and the landing on the Moon was a success that will be remembered forever. Unfortunately spaceflight came to a halt in the 1970s. By 2020 we should have first colonies on Mars.

Let me be clear here: I do believe that the generational traits and the turnings are real. But I do not believe that the social dynamics model can explain them. Generations do not "realize" things and then change behavior just because something has happened. Generations do not raise other generations in a way that they "see" the world in some predetermined fashion. Generations do not form traits because the world is in one way or another. It is impossible for a 80 year cycle with 20 year generations to hold a coherent form through five centuries if it was relying on social dynamics.

This is why I have proposed and shown a large amount of validated evidence that the cycle and the generations are formed through hormone levels, and this has been observed in other cyclical animal populations too: https://jannemiettinen.fi/FourthTurning/

I believe that the reason why Strauss & Howe (and apparently almost everyone else on this forum but me) believe in the social dynamics model is because the theory of mind: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_mind

Theory of mind is innate to humans, and it makes humans think that they know what others think and then rationalize that their actions are due to this knowledge. I have a mild asperger syndrome, and individuals with asperger syndrome often have a different kind of theory of mind, and I for one can't force myself to believe in my intuition as much as facts and scientific evidence. I can't predict what "the masses" think, but I can observe what they do. Hormone levels modulate human behavior in ways the Strauss-Howe generational cycle describes: parenting intensity, group/social coherence, sexual behavior, etc.

So I would challenge anyone to explain to me how they think they can understand how people react to societal events and how this would change the behavior of the masses for good. And then tell how they themselves fit into this equation of realizing things and thus changing their own behavior for good.

https://apnews.com/0714c8c609d604579d00ab93cd6df12c

Being a student of Generational Cycles means comparing and contrasting archetypes and learning from them.

So, in the era of the Prophet, the hippie, the free spirit, the ones who had sex with everyone without caring, we now see the opposite swing of NOW with Groupthink emerging.  Ppl being chastised publicly for "spreading the virus".

Can anyone reconcile these two things?  Flower children laying down with anyone they chose created the world of rampant herpes and HIV.... but also other common, curable viruses and diseases based on refusing to be hygienic.  Being hygienic would have caused them to miss out on what they wanted to do.  That was not something those Prophet archetypes would allow.  They embraced potentially toxic drugs and binge alcohol drinking, they SOUGHT OUT things like peyote and ayahuasca (unknown to the white man until then), risking everything for their singular vision.

All the sex they had ALONE created a wasteland generation of Nomad, their children, who grew up not with the idea of Free Love but with the reality that sex could possibly kill them, maim them, or affect them for life.  Thanks, Flowers.

Back then, there were basically two groups: the group I just mentioned, and the group who challenged them as being "straight-edgers". 

Now, in 2020, we see EVERYONE gathered together in a common purpose around a common campfire.  The era of Groupthink is upon us.  We do not have mass freedoms at the sake of others, we do not have adulation of risky behavior, we have a singular consciousness (at least as of last weekend) to do the right thing.

So we can see, Prophet has always had two groups.  The ones who refused to conform and the ones who did conform.  They have been fighting since Summer of Love and have never stopped.  Hero has had singular ideology from just being who they are.  Not that they believe the same things, but they shun anything with "belief" attached to it.  Maybe that is their form of rebellion, that I cannot say.

I am ashamed of "journalism" right now.  The stories are becoming more and more dramatic, images on some HIGHLY used news pages show people in almost hyperbaric chambers-like plastic tents, descriptions of the "horrors" of having the virus, images of lady liberty enshrined behind a window and weeping.

This shit has got to stop!

I was out today IN CALIFORNIA - on lockdown - and nothing has changed.  If anything, I am seeing a much calmer populace, ppl moving slower and easier, light traffic, courteousness.

And we are on lockdown.  Lockdown.  A heavily-traffiked news site says

California Awakens To New Reality

No.

I am here.  I am reporting to you ppl here in the forum.  Nothing has changed.  Ppl aren't going to work, but it is a Friday.  Normally at this time, the freeways are clogged but are not.  That's a GOOD THING not a bad one.

The shelves are empty still of toilet paper, and ppl are hoarding that and water and canned goods.  But that is due to external pressures like the national news sites I mention.  Even my preferred news outlet of CNN is destroying my faith in news.  This has become a GO TO news situation where, I think producers are being mandated to do that AND because we are being told we're all gonna die.  No one is saying it, but look at the news channels.

Anchors hovered in front of enormous screens interviewing ppl like Sean Penn to see WHAT ARE WE TO EXPECT from disaster.  It feels like being forced on a campout I don't feel like being on and told a narrative that, as an adult American with a mind, I don't know yet HOW to perceive it.  Fearmongering is at a premium, it just is absolute rubbish to me.

The bad experience we are ALL gonna have is from our scared neighbors that will have a garage full of TP when this is done, or, if not done, will be sitting in the house wiping their ass until they die, then leaving the unused stacks of it unused by those who needed it.

What Total Crap
I won't be afraid.

Message boards are dead y'all, is there a more frequently used place for Strauss Howe discussions ?  

Strauss Howe on reddit seems the most active, for a conversation forum to exist long-term its gonna need to be on Reddit.

Only Millennials and Gen Z should try to argue with me, as Gen X and Boomers can't be trusted to know anything in regards to technology   .

Yesterday I went to one of the relatively few remaining mom and pop sandwich shops to stock up in case we end up on lockdown.  As I was going there I thought about the fact that when I was growing up in the 1950s mom and pop book stores, music stores, diners and pharmacies were abundant, and for the most part remained so through the 1970s. The owners and subordinates as well were usually quite friendly and if the store wasn’t busy you could stay and talk with them for a while. I personally developed friendships with some of them at the time. But by the 1980s they really began to fall like dominoes, ruthlessly gutted out of existence by chain stores and fast food franchises which were pretty much the same everywhere. Employees were monitored so heavily that it became virtually impossible to develop those kinds of friendships. On this thread I shall seek your feedback on the reasons for the decline and have chosen to make this multiple choice. So here goes:


a).That we have become a much more mobile society with many folks expecting to find the same stores and restaurants wherever they travel.

b). That big business has thoroughly brainwashed the public into thinking that they could do it all better.

c).  That we have become a consistently more convenience obsessed world with each generation being more so than the last. Mom and pop operations usually can’t provide the same level of convenience that today’s society demands and expects.

d).  All of the above.

e).  Something else.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...r-BB11pYY1

Begins

WASHINGTON — The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion,” was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

The simulation’s sobering results — contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that has not previously been reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which no treatment existed.

I always find it curious things like this happen, and later we learn it was "simulated" right before the event.  Man, this is a theme I can't even refer to properly. If I sound like Alex Jones, I just don't care.  It is part of my nature to investigate. How the f is this thing we are now experiencing, it was SIMULATED less than a year ago.  And it showed we are not prepared for it.  Then it happens?  wtf is that

self-fulfilling prophecy.  what is that

Self-fulfilling prophecy refers to the socio-psychological phenomenon of someone "predicting" or expecting something, and this “prediction” or expectation comes true simply because one believes it will,[1] and their resulting behaviors align to fulfil those beliefs. This suggests peoples' beliefs influence their actions. The principle behind this phenomenon is people create consequences regarding people or events, based on their previous knowledge toward that specific subject. Additionally, self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable to negative and positive outcomes.

American sociologist William Isaac Thomas was the first to discover this phenomenon. In 1928 he developed the Thomas theorem (also known as the Thomas dictum), stating,
“ If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.[2]
”
that's what wiki says

from what I have seen and am now seeing the way big news are reacting, it's fear and stress.  That's going to lead to more empty shelves, more fear and more stress.

But I'm convinced this is the event the authors talked about as possibly the defining moment in the Saeculum. From my many readings and contemplation of the texts, I ramble on to say.....

a global event shaking the world, no one is exempt, such as WWII but where previous, "global" would mean the entirety of the reach of the U.S. such as Civil War and Revolution from England, the event that will either enhance or destroy us, the time of great sacrifice, greater than that which led up to it where I would describe in this context as the 2008 crash and following Great Depression 2 that really for many never ended, culminating in where we are right now.

the authors said it would have SO fast, and would balloon SO explosively, the time of the 4th Turning moves incredibly fast, they always say that. 

Many here in this forum have been speculating on when that would be, they have tried figuring out where we are in the Saeculum, I would say it happened this past weekend.

Oh but my point was, this thing is spiraling outward, we are losing control not because ppl are siick but because there wont be food on the shelves at Vons or Ralphs. <-- that's what I am worried about.

I am not worried about getting sick. I'm not sitting in my crib with a mask on. FUCK that. I won't view this as some dark demon creeping under the cracks of the door.

Also, we will either be enhanced by this or destroyed. That's how I see it and that's how the authors define what America will BE after this point. Winter can last short or long, be brutal or benign.

I am putting together personal knowledge from many interviews by the authors and many more by Strauss who is still living. He speaks now and then. He tends to say the same exact things over and over, but I have picked up nuances. And their themes are so strong. I felt for a long while that I wasn't getting it. I'm getting it more living through it. And I am old enough now to have a past recollection of certain patterns I'd noticed myself in historical events and patterns.

So, I read this story and saw a video where Fox News personalities said very specific things about the virus, they weren't afraid, they went out to dinner, etc. Then, just days later, management had forced them to sit apart on the sound stage, ppl were sent on hiatus based on their expressed views.

That was really cool not because something with a certain ideology was called out, but because EVERYONE is being forced to recognize the time of individual or group ideology is over.  There's no more room for anyone who identifies with ideology in any way. It is now time for a group effort that requires Groupthink.  Groupthink has no ideology. It is comprised of worker bees performing in tandem with each other to accomplish great tasks.  Or, termite ants. They build enormous structures made of a sort of natural concrete. The structures they make can span waterways.

I am not saying this from my own reality. The Strauss & Howe concepts are telling us what to look for. Coming right now, waiting for their chance, is a conglomerate of Heroes, Artists and Nomads that are going to do extraordinary things. Instead of roadways and bridges, they will make use of the Internet as the new shopping grid, virtual reality for scientific problem-solving, cures for disease by examination on cellular levels, etc.

I am glad to see this played out in public.  We can no longer afford to allow ideology of any kind to stop progress.