https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...r-BB11pYY1

Begins

WASHINGTON — The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion,” was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

The simulation’s sobering results — contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that has not previously been reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which no treatment existed.

I always find it curious things like this happen, and later we learn it was "simulated" right before the event.  Man, this is a theme I can't even refer to properly. If I sound like Alex Jones, I just don't care.  It is part of my nature to investigate. How the f is this thing we are now experiencing, it was SIMULATED less than a year ago.  And it showed we are not prepared for it.  Then it happens?  wtf is that

self-fulfilling prophecy.  what is that

Self-fulfilling prophecy refers to the socio-psychological phenomenon of someone "predicting" or expecting something, and this “prediction” or expectation comes true simply because one believes it will,[1] and their resulting behaviors align to fulfil those beliefs. This suggests peoples' beliefs influence their actions. The principle behind this phenomenon is people create consequences regarding people or events, based on their previous knowledge toward that specific subject. Additionally, self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable to negative and positive outcomes.

American sociologist William Isaac Thomas was the first to discover this phenomenon. In 1928 he developed the Thomas theorem (also known as the Thomas dictum), stating,
“ If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.[2]
”
that's what wiki says

from what I have seen and am now seeing the way big news are reacting, it's fear and stress.  That's going to lead to more empty shelves, more fear and more stress.

But I'm convinced this is the event the authors talked about as possibly the defining moment in the Saeculum. From my many readings and contemplation of the texts, I ramble on to say.....

a global event shaking the world, no one is exempt, such as WWII but where previous, "global" would mean the entirety of the reach of the U.S. such as Civil War and Revolution from England, the event that will either enhance or destroy us, the time of great sacrifice, greater than that which led up to it where I would describe in this context as the 2008 crash and following Great Depression 2 that really for many never ended, culminating in where we are right now.

the authors said it would have SO fast, and would balloon SO explosively, the time of the 4th Turning moves incredibly fast, they always say that. 

Many here in this forum have been speculating on when that would be, they have tried figuring out where we are in the Saeculum, I would say it happened this past weekend.

Oh but my point was, this thing is spiraling outward, we are losing control not because ppl are siick but because there wont be food on the shelves at Vons or Ralphs. <-- that's what I am worried about.

I am not worried about getting sick. I'm not sitting in my crib with a mask on. FUCK that. I won't view this as some dark demon creeping under the cracks of the door.

Also, we will either be enhanced by this or destroyed. That's how I see it and that's how the authors define what America will BE after this point. Winter can last short or long, be brutal or benign.

I am putting together personal knowledge from many interviews by the authors and many more by Strauss who is still living. He speaks now and then. He tends to say the same exact things over and over, but I have picked up nuances. And their themes are so strong. I felt for a long while that I wasn't getting it. I'm getting it more living through it. And I am old enough now to have a past recollection of certain patterns I'd noticed myself in historical events and patterns.

So, I read this story and saw a video where Fox News personalities said very specific things about the virus, they weren't afraid, they went out to dinner, etc. Then, just days later, management had forced them to sit apart on the sound stage, ppl were sent on hiatus based on their expressed views.

That was really cool not because something with a certain ideology was called out, but because EVERYONE is being forced to recognize the time of individual or group ideology is over.  There's no more room for anyone who identifies with ideology in any way. It is now time for a group effort that requires Groupthink.  Groupthink has no ideology. It is comprised of worker bees performing in tandem with each other to accomplish great tasks.  Or, termite ants. They build enormous structures made of a sort of natural concrete. The structures they make can span waterways.

I am not saying this from my own reality. The Strauss & Howe concepts are telling us what to look for. Coming right now, waiting for their chance, is a conglomerate of Heroes, Artists and Nomads that are going to do extraordinary things. Instead of roadways and bridges, they will make use of the Internet as the new shopping grid, virtual reality for scientific problem-solving, cures for disease by examination on cellular levels, etc.

I am glad to see this played out in public.  We can no longer afford to allow ideology of any kind to stop progress.

Hi, I would like to gather a VERY tiny bit of information myself concerning what is happening.  I've no idea how many ppl look at this, doesn't matter I guess.  I wouldn't put this somewhere else, so consider you are the guinea pig {inset snort} hahaa

So, I am very interested in what is happening with ppl. If interested, please include here, after me, where you live generally OR specifically and for fun, say if you are which of the 4 archetypes of Strauss & Howe? Talk a little about what you are seeing/experiencing in your own community. Be as vague or specific as you like.

me first

I live in southern california, I am Nomad, really I see nothing different except a lot less traffic. But now, increasingly, influence FROM OUTSIDE changing our behaviors. I sense no real malaise within the ppl I know or their behavior except where they are being hindered by an outside force. Meaning, they have cancelled doctor appointment or their hairdresser cannot or the store they are trying to go to is not open. Ok laugh, Starbucks are all open. They just pulled floor seating. I haven't encountered one that is closed, nor one that is limited to drive thru only. Then, I was a little alarmed to learn Ikea is not open. Not because I had to go there, because it's the first big store, and one unique to larger areas, that is closed. I looked at this, you can actually buy things online and pick them up there, you just can't shop in the store.  Seems odd, but it works I guess!

Traffic here is hateful, I've said pestilence and open freeways are welcomed, as being silly of course, yet very nice.

Some ppl are over-reacting highly tho. Unnecessarily.  Yes, hoarding toilet paper, desperate for bottled water.  Both of those things are completely ridiculous and I must examine what that's about.

I am not unconvinced ppl heard about toilet paper hoarding on the news then went and did it themselves.  I am not unconvinced right now is being used for massive "marketing" purposes in public and private sectors. Monitoring how we react to EVERYTHING so it can be used later on to determine how we as a group will react to something similar.

I THINK THAT WAY.  I am not ashamed. If I look silly to you, we all then choose our own "reality" is that not right? I would rather contemplate many sides of a thing instead of one or even two.

I am seeing the exact same thing, though, by "traditional" southern california staples such as being by the ocean or shopping. No one seems to be going inside or "sheltering". Maybe we don't get that here? I dont think anyone is going to "stay inside".  That's just not going to happen.  Not here, at least. I've seen more people out walking and being with their dogs than I would expect to see right now where the weather is inclement, chillier and damp. I saw ppl out with Han-Solo-On-Hoth garb, and I always laugh seeing that



Oh yes, forgot, no systems are down, no chaos is happening, there is no interruption of services or anything of that kind. Ppl want to say "California" as like, all of it is the same. It really is not. A thing of urban vs smaller communities has the most to do with it, but also geography. I say because there is a huge part of northern california blocked up or put under arrest or something, I don't know anything about that. It reminds me of those old movies where the non-descript small town that could be Lodi or Ojai gets taken over by the government with some weird outbreak, the roads are blocked off and the young, salty kids want to go through it with a big jeep and local firepower. I was the other day walking on a lovely cliff looking at all the people around.

For the record -- I have a bachelor's degree in economics from years ago and some further training in accounting. I am not in the securities or banking industry, so you may consider my advice for what it is worth. Mercifully I am selling you nothing. I am nearly broke so you can count that against me. On the other hand, I have no stake in the current economic order, so that might establish some credibility on my part.

Three years ago it would have seemed silly to take some spare cash and buy a three-year certificate of deposit paying a ridiculously-low rate of interest. The stock market was still in a bull market unlikely to fail. Corporate profits were unusually high thanks to suppressed wages and a tendency toward monopoly. The only really-poor sector was brick-and-mortar retailing and certain areas of the restaurant business. So stay clear of Sears, JC Penney, Macy's, and in general low-end casual dining. 

Guess what? Buying a three-year bank CD with a ridiculously-low interest rate sounds rather good by contrast, doesn't it? Oh, sure, you would have paid taxes for cashing out on the Obama part of the bull market that has just ended (and don't fool yourself --it has ended!). This may not be an exact replay of 1929, but it looks to me more like 1929 than like 2008. In 2008, corporate stocks were not the objects of speculation before the crash. Stocks had barely recovered what they had lost after the Tech Crash. The 2008 disaster was largely in the financing of real estate. Real estate and its financing are always closely-connected, and about anyone with a modest IQ and some integrity could see that the two activities were full of two-legged vipers. The manufacturing sector that was without culpability in the disaster got hurt, but it could recover... and it did. Thus the Obama boom that has been reduced to the Obama boom. (To be non-partisan, much the same results would have been had had John McCain been elected President in 2008).

This time the recovery in stock prices far overshot the recovery of the overall economy and became a speculative frenzy devoid of any rational basis. That is definitely the time in which to cash out and leave the market. So the Dow goes to 24K, 25K, 26K... and eventually many people  start talking about when the Dow will reach 30K. 

In August 1929 some were thinking of when the Dow, then approaching 380, would reach 400. By July 1932 it would approach something roughly a tenth of that. The Dow would reach 400, though -- on December 29, 1954.  And that is when one doesn't take account of a rise in prices in 25 years. So when does the Dow reach 30K -- if the analogue following 1929 fits perfectly, maybe May 2045. Yes -- you heard that right -- about when Americans are celebrating the 100th anniversary of VE-Day. To be sure, there were changes that kept stock market prices depressed. One was that the recovery of the 1930's was largely with small businesses and with workers getting much better wages in the middle-1930's. Heavy taxes were placed on 'unearned' income because such was politically popular and such taxes remained in effect long after World War Ii. The fellow who worked in manufacturing typically kept any surplus earnings in savings accounts with deposit insurance, so the common man was not even dabbling in the market. The 1929 Crash stayed in the public consciousness for a very long time. 

Speculative frenzies of any kind are the last stage of any boom, and they begin when such activities are the only game in town. When other sorts of investments disappear or go unfashionable, the speculative frenzy begins. Everybody seems to think that he can sell at the peak -- and the peak goes, and the falling-knife stage comes. Then nobody really wants to sell except in a panic, and because there are no more people to buy in, the market keeps imploding. Collapse ensues, and people are left with nothing. 

Donald Trump will not be re-elected. His one strength has been his ability to ride a seductive market. That, folks, is not coming back. Prosperity will return to America, but in a very different way. Maybe those few who sold out and decided to avoid being the vultures who consume the poisoned carrion will be around to invest in different ways -- like small business, real estate in new or recovering markets (Trump bought in low in New York City -- and that is the entire scope of his financial acumen), or venture capital in a new market. 

If it sounds bleak -- good reason exists for skyscrapers having windows that cannot be opened from the inside -- some things can go right. America has a long heritage of responsible government with Donald Trump as the biggest aberration by far. Americans consider economic stewardship an expectation instead of a lucky result.  America still has a capitalist market economy, and its people still dream of better lives through economic gain and what it can buy them. So long as people get paid fairly by the standards of the time they will have a work ethic. Remember well: for working people, life was generally better -- often much better -- in 1938 than in 1928 by measures of such big-ticket possessions as cars, furniture, appliances, phonographs, and radios  If government takes a bigger role in the economy (the high-tax, high-spend 'social market' economy), then the spending will itself be prosperity while making people able to achieve more.  We have tens of millions of people left behind in the supposed good times, and nothing about them says that they cannot do their share and get a fair share. Above all we expect integrity as the norm in politics, academia, and commerce; integrity prevents the disasters that corruption mandates.

Before someone compares what ensues to the 1930's, let me suggest that the 1930's had their virtues in America. We chose the best President we could have possibly had, someone who stabilized the milieu in which capitalism could operate. FDR backed the banks but in return made them custodians of other people's money. They could no longer be the high-stakes rollers; the bankers were the ones to keep the economic order from becoming a casino riskier than anything now in Vegas. FDR pushed technological investments that put an end to the worst sting of regional poverty. He got youth off the street and either into high school or the CCC. Figure that many aimless youth could do well with a little time in the wilderness building some hiking trails while getting to appreciate wilderness... We could use that again. He took the side of labor when it sought to organize the giant manufacturing plants, much in contrast to recent Presidents who have done everything possible to eviscerate unions if they could do anything at all. I'm not saying that Biden will be the new FDR, but Trump was the antithesis. Obama? He may have dreamed of it, but historical reality showed that he wasn't.

One narrative that has emerged out of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is that of state and local governments taking charge where national government has failed. Governors and mayors were the first to call for action, and the President has been playing catch up. 

Does this interpretation of recent events ring true?  It could be a story of government power devolving - the nation-state fraying and the U.S. Constitution failing, whereas state and local governments have more strength. Or it could be the particular actions of this "wrecking ball" administration - defunding the very institutions that are now needed the most, and sowing distrust of media and scientific expertise.

I cannot understand how to upload an image to this.  I wanted to post a screencap of one of the most popular and well-used news sites and highlight their headlines TODAY to show how using fear is gripping our minds and controlling all of us to be primordial and exponentially paranoid.

These are the headlines I wanted to critique.  You see words like "warns" and "stranded" and "chaos" that's just a small example.  I only picked out there.  Every headline has some provocative thing in it.  But taken together, it's all meant to cause PROVOCATION not peace of mind.  It's there to cause clutching-of-pearls, gasping-of-breath.  You have reports of people calling 911 on the coughing, rural town in chaos, lung scans of the young are "terrifying".  Even a vague headline about "tempers" another to cause a "AM I TYPE A???" and someone else is bitter that their care is less than that of a prisoner.

This headline composition has no purpose but to ALERT, to STOKE FEAR AND TREPIDATION, to DRIVE ADRENALINE, to cause to revert to primal levels of being afraid.

Mnuchin warns jobless rate could hit 20%
Majority with virus walking around undetected
18 months of social distancing?
Stranded travelers struggle to get home
Can feds order national quarantine?
New York bar, restaurant owners could be JAILED is break lockdown
911 calls about neighbors coughing
Upended rural town in chaos
Doctor: lung scans of young nothing sort of terrifying
Tempers fray in USA
People with type A blood more likely to catch?
White house calls on military to boost medical response
Navy acting hospital ships
Soldier in quarantine: "prisoners get better care"
Best and worst death toll scenarios
SICK MAP

SICK MAP?  So, we need to know there's a map we can go look at...... where we can see SICK and where it is.  Is it near us?  Let's go examine the bubbles to see it glopping toward us like The Blob.  IT'S COMING!  We can't stop it.  We're gonna die.

It helps no one.

My favorite in this list MAYBE........ "Best and worst death toll scenarios".  That one makes me to giggle.  Let's click it to ruminate the most number of the dead and the least.  When I go to Vegas, I like to put AAAAAAAALLLLLLL my money on both red and black and watch the dial spin.  Let's get in the middle of it and kick back that bet.

It's never a good thing to put out wrong information.

NEVER.

For me, I consider Right Information to be what I know myself.  For me, right and good information is what I have experienced and what is happening around me. If I were to try to inform others about something I don't know, I would be putting out bad information. I might even be making others afraid.

If you know no one with the Virus, it isn't a good idea to tell others about how many people are dying.  It wouldn't be a good idea to tell others how it could be anywhere.  It isn't best to tell old people THEY are more likely to die.

Not when you don't know any of these things yourself.

Not when you have not experienced it in your own life.

Not when you haven't personally studies these things to know them to be accurate.

This is not a time to be spreading gossip and hushed whispers of a thing you read on facebook.  It's not a good thing or a right thing to be talking about things you know nothing about. 

That cannot help anyone.  Doing that cannot bring any good to the circumstances.

Be smart.

I'm sure many of us have seen memes bringing up H1N1 in comparison with COVID-19 - usually to make a partisan point about the administration's handling of one or the other. Looking back at the 2009 pandemic data, it looks like it was pretty serious - 59 million Americans infected, 265,000 hospitalized, and 12,000 dead. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_p...ted_States

But I don't remember as strong a social reaction as is happening with COVID-19. What's different? This would have been at the beginning of the 4T, as opposed to the middle. We were just getting through a financial crisis that had already started, rather than dealing with one *caused* by the reaction to the pandemic. What else is different? Were we just no there in the Crisis mood yet, or intensely enough? Is it that COVID-19 has been so demonstrably bad for other countries (Italy in particular) so it is more ominous a threat?

A couple of weeks ago I unfriended him on facebook because he kept calling me a "Boomer" for refusing to support Comrade Bernie.

Yes, it's true that I don't support him - and I'm dang proud to say that I don't.  But then he falsely claimed that I support Biden - when in fact I have already formally endorsed Brian Carroll, the candidate of the American Solidarity Party, which is progressive on economic issues but conservative on social issues.  While not "sectarian" per se, the ASP draws its agenda heavily on both two papal encyclicals - Pope Leo XIII's Rerum Novarum and Pope Pius XI's Quadragesimo Anno - and the Roman Catholic doctrine of the four sins that cry out to heaven for vengeance - willful murder, the sin of Sodom, oppression of the poor, and defrauding laborers of their wages.

If I had to select the pure political philosophers, as opposed to career politicians, who have shaped who I am, philosophically and politically, I would cite both Arthur Schlesingers - Sr. and Jr. (whose "containment" strategy won the Cold War) - Walt Rostow (whose 1960 bestseller The Five Stages Of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto totally debunked the myth of "trickle-down" economics two decades before the term was even coined), Daniel Patrick Moynihan (who wanted to return to two mail deliveries a day to create jobs, yet concomitantly bemoaned "defining deviancy down"), Michael Novak (who rightfully took Pope John Paul II to task for his belief in laissez-faire capitalism), Mike Royko, and, most of all, Michael Lind (a Baby Buster who, in Up From Conservatism: Why The Right Is Wrong For America, quoted Marvin Harris, who, in Why Nothing Works: The Anthropology Of Daily Life, was the first prominent observer to debunk the 1946-64 "baby boom" myth).

Hardly a Boomer's resume, is it?

So, realizing that I had unfriended him, ETG sent me a PM on here, calling me a Boomer again - whereupon I put him on my Ignore list.

Dude, you want some cheese with that whine?