A place for horse race predictions.

Plainly, elections are always about The Economy.  That's what everyone says.  Everyone wants to claim if America-In-General economic terms (whatever that is) is  going well, America Itself is doing well.

Can this ever be the case while there are so many homeless?  It matters not why you believe they are in a box, tent, car or bush.  The fact so many are there.  That's all.  This includes people with 2 jobs who park in the Community areas under watch of the cops at night and then rise in the morning to drive to their job(s) again.  Weekly, monthly, annually.

Drop your voting ballot to answer that simple question.
Don't pervert the question to your political ideology.

Hello! I'm a Gen Z/Homelander girl, born in March of 2005, currently a freshman in high schooler. My parents, aunts, and uncles are all Gen X (although only one uncle lived here all his life, the others are all immigrants).

I learned about generations in.. 2017, ish? I've kept that basic stuff in the back of my mind until November of 2019 w̶h̶e̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶"̶o̶k̶ ̶b̶o̶o̶m̶e̶r̶"̶ ̶m̶e̶m̶e̶ ̶e̶x̶p̶l̶o̶d̶e̶d̶ and I got into generational theory. I'm a little over half-way done with reading The Fourth Turning, and I plan on getting Generations afterward. I really wanna see Niel Howe write "The First Turning" later this decade! 

Anyway, since then, I've been talking a LOT about generations online. Especially on Reddit. I might become a sociologist in the future, because these topics really peak my interest. Today I found out this place existed, and have spent a few hours on here reading these posts. They're seriously fascinating.

So yeah, ask me anything that's not seriously invading my privacy. I'll try my best to answer every question, but I only remember stuff from 2010 onwards. I really begin to remember stuff in 2016 and you all could probably guess why. I hope this thread is interesting or helpful!

The Fourth Turning theory has proven to be very consistent with how history has played out, with one major exception in my eyes. Beginning after the French Revolution, the Napoleonic Wars between 1803 and 1815 resemble many of the elements that are prominent in a Crisis era. They were total wars that concluded with clear victors and losers, while also restructuring European power dynamics for the rest of the century. Another conflict on that scale would not occur again in Europe until it was surpassed by World War I. Yet the wars are placed in a First Turning, ending over two decades after the official conclusion in 1794. How does this topic and Napoleon himself fit in the overall saeculum?

I feel like I posted something like this already but I can't find it. I'm thinking about what policies are continuations from the Obama era to the Trump era; despite how different the two Presidents are in temperament. Two stand out-

* Increased immigration enforcement. Trump is getting the blame for kids in cages, but the crackdown and lowering of immigration rates happened under Obama.

* Withdrawal from global affairs. Trump gets blamed for "abandoning the Kurds," but consider that Obama was given a Nobel Peace Prize for pulling the U.S. out of Iraq.

In both these cases, both Presidents were acting like 4T leaders. 

Are there any other examples people can think of?

If I were a politician or a diplomat, which I am not and have not the talent to be, I would try to arrange the situations in the Middle East so peace would prevail. Although I am not a politician or a diplomat, I am a visionary.

What I propose for Israel and Palestine:

Scrap the phony Trump/Kushner/Bibi plan. It is merely an annexation plan. Instead, engage the two parties again, and possibly get Jordan and Egypt involved too. A viable plan would be a 2-state solution. The Palestinian "right of return" would be restricted to those who can afford to buy their way back in and meet a quota, just like immigrants to the USA, Mexico or any other country are required to do. The Israelis would not accept a State of Israel with a Palestinian majority, so things should be arranged so that does not happen within the foreseeable future. 

Meanwhile, the borders should be put back to where they were in 1967, and the Wall should be demolished if peace is agreed to by all parties. Israeli settlements could remain, with these important provisos: Israelis living in Palestine would have the same rights as Palestinians still in Israel often have, and both would have even more. But they would become voting citizens of Palestine, not Israel. They would still be a minority, and no further state-sponsored settlements would be constructed in Palestine by Israel. These former Israelis could then become official settlers in Palestine, just as some Palestinians could return to Israel and become citizens of Israel. New  Israeli settlers in Palestine would just have to buy their way in and be accepted through a process and with quotas, just like immigrants can do who move to any other country. 

Israeli settlements could organize their own municipality and hire police forces to control any vandals or rebels who want to hurt them or their towns. But Israel should pay reparations to those families whose properties they have stolen and demolished so that they can buy new places to live in Palestine. No other bribe-like payments are needed, like the phony ones Kushner and Bibi propose. The new government in Palestine would be empowered to put down any terrorist acts or rebellions, as they have succeeded in doing in the past on the West Bank but not given any credit by Bibi for doing.

Jerusalem's Temple Mount should be an international peace park open to all and administered by the UN. Jerusalem should otherwise be divided according to the 1967 borders, and either nation can put its capitol and foreign embassies in its portion of the city if it wishes.

What about Syria? How do we get past the brutal dictatorship and disaster area it has become?

It will take a number of years until the USA, the UK, Iran and possibly Russia gets better leadership. I can see the possibility that Syria could be decreed by international agreement to hold fair elections in which all residents and refugees could vote for who replaces Assad-- who would not be allowed to run and would be deposed. Russia could keep its base and its alliance, and all ethnic groups would have full rights protected under this new democratic state. The international community, led by NATO, Arab states, the USA, the UN and Syrian fighters would have to enforce this agreement by invading Syria and deposing Assad. Minus his old allies, this should be a quick and easy task to defeat him, but it has to be done, since the monster war-criminal and illegitimate dictator Assad will not agree to any viable peace deal, or agree to give up any power. The Syrians would not initially be left to their own devices; international powers as well as Free Syrians would set up and enforce the new elections and stay in the country for a year or two.

Can these agreements and visions happen? I don't know, but it seems to me that the qualified leaders will need to come to this vision of mine if peace and justice are ever to be restored to these areas. Of course, these are not the only world problems by a long shot. Much will need to be done in the future years if and when we get competent leaders and people willing to support them.

What do you think of these plans? What about other intractible issues, like Afghanistan, Iran, Korea, Venezuela and other American trouble-spots, climate change, global corporate oligarchy, and so on?

A reminder of how bad a Crisis can go. Seventy-five years ago the Soviet Army liberated the Factory of Suffering and Murder at Auschwitz. Auschwitz is infamous today more as deed than as a place, a consequence of the juxtaposition of hatred, ignorance, fanaticism, cruelty, secrecy, and greed victimizing helpless people. Not Jewish, I question whether I can express the horror. 

Quote:OSWIECIM, Poland (AP) — Survivors of the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp prayed and wept as they marked the 75th anniversary of its liberation, returning Monday to the place where they lost entire families and warning about the ominous growth of anti-Semitism and hatred in the world.

“We have with us the last living survivors, the last among those who saw the Holocaust with their own eyes,” Polish President Andrzej Duda told those at the commemoration, which included the German president as well as Jewish, Christian and Muslim leaders.

“The magnitude of the crime perpetrated in this place is terrifying, but we must not look away from it and we must never forget it,” Duda said.

About 200 camp survivors attended, many of them elderly Jews and non-Jews who traveled from Israel, the United States, Australia, Peru, Russia, Slovenia and elsewhere. Many lost parents and grandparents in Auschwitz or other Nazi death camps during World War II, but were joined by children, grandchildren and even great-grandchildren.

Hello,

I thought it would be interesting to look at how parent child relationships play out among the four generations. Obviously, a child can be the generation right after a parent, (e.g. a prophetic parent has a nomadic child, a nomadic parent has a heroic child, etc.) but sometimes if the parent and child are at the tail end of their generations it can skip a generation, (e.g. Prophetic parents have heroic children, Nomadic parents have artistic children etc.) Therefor there are eight parent child relationships. I have attempted to examine them and provide examples from fact or fiction.

1. Prophetic Parent-Nomadic Child  We saw this one on Family Ties when the Boomer parents, Steve and Alyce Keaton were actually too liberal for their conservative son, Alex. The Nomadic Child thinks that the Prophetic parents are too weird and just wants to live a normal life.

2. Prophetic Parent-Heroic Child This is supposed to be going on later with the Boomers raising the Millenials. The helicopter parent requires the child to engage at an early age in community service and the like and the child gets a reputation for being a "good kid".

3. Nomadic Parent-Heroic Child If you want an example of this from fiction, consider Lost generation Vito Corleone's relationship with his GI son, Michael.  If you want a real life example, how about Senator Joseph Kennedy's relationship with his son John. Nomadic parents often want their children to have better lives then they did and are willing to engage in almost Machiavellian methods to achieve this goal. But the heroic child is too good to appreciate this. He or she goes off and joins the army sometimes against their parents' will.

4. Nomadic Parent-Artistic Child Well, I guess now we have this going on when the Gen X parents raise Homelanders, but to go back in history maybe an example would be Lost generation Alfred Hitchcock's relationship with his Silent daughter,  Pat. Alfred famously said that actors should be treated cattle, but when his daughter wanted to be an actress, he supported her and gave her parts in his films. In a way, the artistic child is more appreciative of the Nomadic parents sacrifices then the heroic child.

5. Heroic Parent-Artistic Child I can't think of any obvious examples of this one. There was Silent Elvis Presley's relationship with his GI parents, but I'm not sure how typical that was. Basically, it's a situation where the child appreciates the parents, but is not afraid to occasionally turn on them with Rock and Roll music or Beatnik poetry.


6. Heroic Parent-Prophetic Child I guess this was dramatized by All in the Family and many other places. The GI Archie Bunker didn't get along with his Boomer daughter and son-in-law, Gloria and Michael. Heroic parents did their part for their country and don't get why prophetic children are trying to change the status quo.


7. Artistic Parent-Prophetic Child  I had a little trouble thinking of examples for this one too. I guess The Brady Bunch was supposed to be an example of this type of family. Mike and Carol Brady were members of the Silent generation and their six children were boomers. They took a somewhat tolerant view of their children trying to be "groovy" rock stars. I also thought of Elton John's relationship with his parents. Both of them were very much music fans, but they did not approve of his flamboyant attitude to music.


8. Artistic Parent-Nomadic Child  Actually, this is my relationship with my parents for what that's worth. (I'm a Gen Xer and they're (young) members of the Silent generation.) I know the book cites Judy Blume as a member of the Silent Generation. I guess the point here is that Artistic parents are, in some ways, wiser than Prophetic parents because they realize that you have to let Nomadic children be Nomadic children.

So that is my analysis. I would appreciate comments and maybe some help filling in the blanks.

Here is the greatly improved generational hormone theory that is based on the Strauss-Howe generational theory: https://jannemiettinen.fi/FourthTurning/

What's different to before is that the sex hormones are now included (chapter 5), and chapter 3.2.7 includes an explanation how the social hormones cause birth cohorts to lean left or right on the political spectrum. This theory still largely negates the suggestion made by Strauss & Howe that 'social dynamics' explain the generational cycle, and explains why the generational cycle is actually an oscillating generational hormone cycle.

The premise is quite simple: the social hormones (oxytocin and vasopressin) are in high amounts during the 4th turning, and this causes the groups to tighten. This is what Strauss & Howe are explaining in their books, because a 4th turning basically comprises of tightening groups, and thus tightening intergroup relations. This is explained in chapter 2, and expanded further in chapter 4.

I've received good feedback from many professors, like from Robin Dunbar, who is the emeritus professor of evolutionary psychology at the University of Oxford, who was kind enough to send me a three page reply on the matter. (The biggest open questions surrounding the theory are vasopressin's behavioral effects and finding the generational vasopressin levels.) So the theory has been checked and found to be plausible by many experts in their fields. But what do people on this forum think about it? Is there anything in the Strauss-Howe generational theory that this generational hormone theory can't explain?

There's also a PDF-version available for download.