Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Eric the Green]

I resist based on Leftist elements. But those "Leftist" elements, as they exist in the USA, are at most center-left in most developed countries, and merely represent decent values that most of us share: a clean environment and climate, just equality of opportunity, human rights, democracy, and no phony slogans that destroy these values such as free market economics and laissez faire. Trump's foreign policy can't be characterized as right or left, but merely unwise and unpredictable, and generally not in the interests of this or any nation.

"Resist" means that I can see the better path, not just that I oppose his path, or him as a person.

[pbrower2a]

[pbrower2a]

Approval polls for Iowa (Selzer) and Virginia (Quininnipiac).  Trump won Iowa decisively and barely lost Virginia in 2016. He's down 38-46 in Virginia and 42-49 in Iowa.

Gallup has a nationwide approval rating of 38/56... Figuring that the average incumbent can translate an approval rating at the start of a campaign into about 6% more of the vote share in the general election as an 'average' campaigner against an 'average' challenger, I would expect President Trump to get about 44% of the vote share in a re-election bid. If President Trump is no better than this three years from now, I can project that he would lose. This is before we have an economic meltdown or some disaster of foreign policy. The "Obama universe" that reflects a steady-hand approach to public policy has yet to come to an end, but the steady hand is gone.

Approval and favorability ratings (because where we have them both we see much the same numbers -- Michigan simply straddles a categories at 39% and 40%) suggest that President Trump would lose Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, and North Carolina, all of which he won in 2016,  in 2020. That is 77 electoral votes before I see anything from Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

Favorability:



Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

...I must remind you of a great difference between government and business. If one dislikes Trump hotels, one at least has alternatives, like Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott, and Wyndham. If one is priced out of Trump hotels, then one might settle for Holiday Inn, Motel 6, Red Roof, etc. If one dislikes the US government one has few alternatives that do not involve a costly relocation and separation from people that we know.

What the anti-government Right said recently about Barack Obama now applies to liberals when they think about the Trump Administration, except that we seem not to be buying firearms to make sure that we buy them while we still can.

[pbrower2a]

In Arkansas, it's smooth sailing for Donald Trump, as he has a 60% approval rating there. In Texas, he's barely afloat at a 46-44  spread in approval ratings. Trump would likely win both states -- but Texas just barely. Of course I do not trust any poll for Texas, as nobody can fully get the regional differences, the ethnic disparities, and the economic divides of Texas, which straddles regions and has areas with no analogues outside of Texas.

Did you realize that El Paso is closer to San Diego, California than to Beaumont, Texas? Did you realize that Beaumont, Texas is closer to Jacksonville, Florida than to El Paso?  (I had to mention the states because there really are a Jacksonville and a San Diego in Texas). Did you realize that Texarkana is closer to such places as Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, amd Asheville than to El Paso?  


Favorability:



...If this sort of polling holds up into 2020, then people watching the Presidential election will have a 38-point mystery lasting long into the evening. But Texas would be the difference between about 400 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee and about 440.

Trump should do extremely well in the Mountain South -- that's certain at this point.

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/.../660441453

Quote
ERIE, Pa. -- Despite Erie County going red during the general election, a new poll shows that some Erie County residents do not approve of President Donald Trump's actions.

The poll, conducted by Mercyhurst University's Center for Applied Politics, found 41 percent of 419 registered voters in the county approve of Trump and 49 percent disapprove.

Sixty percent disapprove of how he is handling relationships with other nations compared to 30 percent that approve.

Fifty-three percent said that Trump's criticism of the media is unfair while 41 percent say it's justified.
[...]
Despite much of the negativity, 49 percent of people did approve of the way he is handling the economy.

Trump won Erie County, PA 48%-46%. Obama won the County in 2012 by 57%-41%.[/quote]

It's one county in Pennsylvania, and obviously not representative of Pennsylvania as a whole. Candidate Trump promised big, but he has delivered poorly so far.

I salivate at the prospect of statewide polls of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Roanoake College, Virginia:

Trump -- approve 32%, disapprove 50%

Congress -- approve 20%, disapprove 62%

Is the President...

moving too fast 46%
about right 35%
not fast enough 12%
refused 8%

On some other issues, Virginians are opposed to building a border wall, the ban on Muslims, and wholesale deportations.

[pbrower2a]

Trump won Tennessee decisively in 2016 (61-35). He would almost certainly win Tennessee if there were a re-do of the election, probably getting around  57% of the vote. But he starts behind Obama in early 2009.


Tennessee (Middle Tennessee State University):

51% Approve
32% Disapprove

Quote:Trump’s Tennessee “hangover” similar to Obama’s Tennessee “honeymoon”

Asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” the poll found that 51 percent approve, 32 percent disapprove, and 17 percent don’t know or don’t answer.

For comparison, when the spring 2009 MTSU Poll was conducted shortly after Barack Obama took office, it asked whether respondents approved of the job he was doing as president and found that 53 percent approved, 27 percent disapproved, and 20 percent didn’t know or didn’t answer.

Those were Obama’s best job approval ratings in Tennessee during his presidency. In most of the polls that followed, around 35 percent of Tennesseans said they approved of the job Obama was doing. Similarly, when asked to look back on Obama’s presidency as a whole in the latest MTSU Poll, only 39 percent said they approve, and 56 percent said they disapprove.

Obama lost the state of Tennessee with only 42 percent of the vote in 2008. Trump won the state with 61 percent of the vote in 2016.

http://mtsupoll.org/2017/02/22/trumps-ap...tennessee/

Favorability:




Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.





Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

American voters today give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 55 percent job approval rating, his worst net score since he took office, down from a negative 42 - 51 percent approval rating in a February 7 Quinnipiac University national poll.

President Trump's negative scores are 36 - 59 percent among women and 41 - 50 percent among men, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. Republicans approve 83 - 10 percent, while negative approval ratings are 5 - 91 percent among Democrats and 38 - 55 percent among independent voters.

Trump gets a negative 39 - 55 percent favorability rating, also his worst net score since taking office. Vice President Mike Pence gets a split 41 - 40 percent favorability.

Opinions on most of Trump's personal qualities also are negative, as American voters say:

55 - 40 percent that he is not honest;
55 - 42 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
53 - 44 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
63 - 33 percent that he is not level-headed;
64 - 32 percent that he is a strong person;
58 - 38 percent that he is intelligent;
60 - 37 percent that he does not share their values.

Trump is doing more to unite the country, 36 percent of American voters say, while 58 percent say he is doing more to divide the nation.

"President Donald Trump's popularity is sinking like a rock," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"He gets slammed on honesty, empathy, level headedness and the ability to unite. And two of his strong points, leadership and intelligence, are sinking to new lows.

"This is a terrible survey one month in."

A total of 38 percent of American voters think they can trust Trump to do what is right "almost all of the time" or "most of the time," and 61 percent think they can trust Trump to do what is right "some of the time" or "hardly ever."

In contrast, 58 percent of voters think they can trust U.S. courts to do what is right "almost all of the time" or "most of the time," and 40 percent think they can trust the courts to do what is right "some of the time" or "hardly ever."

American voters approve 59 - 38 percent of court actions blocking Trump's executive order on immigration.

Looking at Trump's immigration proposals, voters oppose:

49 - 43 percent "suspending immigration from 'terror prone' regions ...;"
53 - 45 percent suspending for 90 days all travel to the U.S. by citizens from seven Middle Eastern nations;
60 - 37 percent suspending for 120 days immigration of all refugees to the U.S. from any nation;
68 - 27 percent suspending indefinitely all immigration to the U.S. of Syrian refugees. President Trump and the Media

A total of 90 percent of American voters say it is "very important" or "somewhat important" "that the news media hold public officials accountable."

Voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the way the news media has covered Trump.

But voters disapprove 61 - 35 percent of the way Trump talks about the media.

And voters trust the media more than Trump 52 - 37 percent "to tell you the truth about important issues."

"The media, so demonized by the Trump Administration, is actually a good deal more popular than President Trump," Malloy said.

Voters approve 47 - 41 percent of the way Trump is handling the economy. Looking at his handling of other issues, voters:

Disapprove 56 - 36 percent of the way he is handling foreign policy;
44 percent approve of his handling of terrorism, as 49 percent disapprove;
Disapprove 58 - 40 percent of the way he is handling immigration issues.

From February 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,323 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=2431

Even the good news for President Trump is that the Obama economy has yet to collapse.

38-55. That's what political failure looks like. It's all self-inflicted. Luck so far plays no role.

I was hoping for some state polling, but with these numbers I would expect President Trump, were it three years from now, to lose a re-election bid about 45-55, suggesting that he would lose states that Republican nominees for President simply do not lose.

33-63 on level-headedness. That's where the blunders come from. There will be even more of them.

[Eric the Green]

Trump still has a ways to fall, before he falls out of favor with most of his right-wing supporters. He'd have to fall a lot further below 40% for that to happen.

[Bad Dog]

It has to go to Dick Cheney's 18% approval level.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, Franklin&Marshall.  Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor. 32% have President Trump at "excellent or good", 54% at poor, 13% fair.  Awful, really.

http://m.republicanherald.com/news/poll-...-1.2158470

South Carolina, Winthrop University.

44% approve, 47% disapprove.

...and he gets only 77% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.  

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/def...px?id=9804

CBS national poll. 39% approve, 51% disapprove.  I don't show national polls on the map, but if anyone wants to guess that the President is faring better than this in Wisconsin or Ohio, go right ahead and believe it. .

Favorability:




Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:



Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

Three years away from the start of the real campaigning of the 2020 Presidential election I can make the earliest possible prediction of its results. I'm seeing an early pattern, with the shift of support from Obama to Trump looking transient in the extreme. I have eighteen states with approval or favorability ratings (and favorabiliy ratings look the same as approval ratings when both are shown ; one poll of Michigan asked about both and the results  were off each other by 1$ although straddling a category).

Note that I make some assumptions.

First, that the 2020 election will be free and fair.  

Anything else (1) isn't interesting, (2) is a violation of over 200 years of precedent, and (3) indicates that the comparative few who own the assets and grab the income either have gained total power or have lost everything in a revolution or apocalyptic war.

Second, that American political culture does not change profoundly in the meantime.  

Ethnic divides and religious patterns remain much the same and have much the same general orientation. There is no trend toward fundamentalist religion or toward irreligion that would change voting patters. We haven't seen that since the late 1970s  and I don't expect to see that now.

Third, that the states change in their voting behavior only due to demographic change

The Hispanic and Asian populations are growing rapidly and making a bigger part of the electorate while black and white populations become lesser shares.

Fourth, approval-disapproval differentials remain much the same as they are now.

That assumes that President Trump does not endure even further losses of approval or make a miraculous recovery.  Could things go worse for him? Sure. Mass unrest. Economic meltdown. Military or diplomatic debacles. Scandals involving sex or financial turpitude.  I'm not saying that any one of those will happen, but I can't rule them out. If any of these happen, then Donald Trump might not even run for re-election, in which case all bets are off.  

Fifth, that President Trump will run for election.

He will not die, become incapacitated, resign, or be impeached. To be sure, if he dislikes the Presidency he might choose not to run while expressing some noble cause for not seeking a second term, as did LBJ.

Sixth, that third parties will not greatly shape the election.

If the liberal side splits significantly, then President Trump wins. If some conservative-leaning nominee gets 10% or more of the vote, then Trump loses 'bigly'.

>>>>I have enough approval and favorability ratings of states to create a skeleton of a likely 2020 Presidential election. There are states (Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin) for which I have nothing so far, for which I would like some data.

So add 6% to the most recent number for approval or favorability (where I had both favorability and approval, they were basically the same -- I prefer approval) to get the likely share of the vote in any state in the upcoming election. Nate Silver has a model for elected (not appointed) Governors and Senators that suggests that they normally lose support once they start legislating or governing because they can't please everyone who voted for them, but that they typically gain about 6% of the vote from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season by campaigning. That's the 'average' Governor or Senator running against the 'average' challenger. It worked well with Obama, whose approval ratings were in the mid 40s early in 2016, and he barely got re-elected by the popular vote. If it applies to Senators and Governors, then why not to the President?

So here are the data. I normed some unflattering polls for Trump in Florida and North Carolina to the national average , but other than that I simply took the latest numbers. Here is the raw data:

NY - 31 MA - 25  NJ - 36 AZ - 39 FL - 34 (raise to 40) NC- 36 (raise to 40) MI-40 WV - 58 CA -34 NH - 43 VA - 38 IA - 42 AR - 60 TX - 46 VA -32 TN - 51 MD -29 PA - 32 SC - 44

Add 6 to the approval rating, and you get the following map:

     


white -- 49-51% for Trump (a virtual tie)

Trump wins:

60% or more
55-59.9%
51.0-54.9%

Trump loses, getting :

40% or less
40-44.9%
45-48.9%

[pbrower2a]

(02-23-2017, 04:55 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: States like MI and PA where Trump won are befuddling. Obviously this does not include you personally, but now they look like complete dupes and fools. It's disgusting they could not see what Trump would be like in November and now have buyer's remorse. Lots of Lefties on here go on and on about voter suppression versus participation but I am increasingly of a mind that fewer rather than more people should vote. Unless voters can be less foolish, what would be so wrong about having to meet certain qualifications in order to vote?

In the classic bait-and-switch fraud a gullible customer is lured into a crooked furniture dealer with the advertisement of something too good to be true  that is shown to be inadequate to the customer or, if the customer insists, "sold out". The salesman then tries to entice the gullible customer into buying something both overpriced and shoddy.  A bit more than one expected in price? There is easy credit with 'easy payments'. So one gets overpriced furniture that isn't any good on a contract with loan-shark interest. I've known people who got taken.

But Demagogue Don played an even nastier fraud. He found that millions of people are in economic distress, left behind as the share of economic activity in manufacturing shrinks. He never was quite clear about where the 'good manufacturing jobs' would come from... but they apparently have a price. Tax cuts for the super-rich, regulatory relief, business subsidies, sponsorship of monopoly pricing, gutting of workers' rights. The benefits all go to someone else, yet the worker gets to pay for it. So you buy the sofa, and you find that you are making payments on a sofa that the owner has given to one of his family members! Such is what I see in Trump economics.

In good times people are not so gullible. They recognize that one does not get something without giving up something else in exchange.  But quality for quality is a good deal. Real prosperity depends upon people making enough good stuff or doing enough good deeds that people are getting good lives.

...When the Trump nightmare is over we are going to need to restructure our educational system to make people more adept at critical thought, more aware of elementary economics, more competent at recognizing cons and fleeces, and more skilled in using basic logic.  We need to recognize that  K-12 education once more than adequate to churn out millions of clerks and laborers is not enough when we no longer need so much raw labor to achieve what we must. Maybe our world is so much more complicated that people can no longer be adequate as participants in adult roles in society at 18 (the usual end of high school).

When I saw the slogan "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" I recognized something that one many would read into whatever they wanted to read into it. People concerned about abortion probably assumed that "GREAT AGAIN" meant "free of abortion". For people of modest skill and no prospects, "GREAT AGAIN" might mean "plenty of well-paid work"... well, when there is much work and little pay attached, that won't be so great. "GREAT AGAIN"  for white racists might mean that white privilege might be restored. (before WWII "white privilege really meant "WASP privilege", as almost all Polish-Americans and Italian-Americans (and most Irish-Americans)_ were dirt-poor, so people need beware of any racist agenda). I saw it and assumed the worst -- that it would be a return to the economic agenda of reactionaries who would be perfectly happy if the got to know the wondrous times of yore, when child labor was the norm, when employers needed not deal with unions, when Social Security did not exist, when smokestacks belching toxic wastes into the air were symbols of prosperity the Klan kept blacks 'in their place'... back to the 1920s, if not the Gilded Age. 

Yes, Donald Tru8mp says he is a "friend of coal"... really,m the coal barons, if not the miners. This is what made America great, as far as Donald Trump sees it,

Quote:Some people say a man is made outta mud
A poor man's made outta muscle and blood
Muscle and blood and skin and bones
A mind that's a-weak and a back that's strong

You load sixteen tons, what do you get?
Another day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go
I owe my soul to the company store

Read more: Tennessee Ernie Ford - Sixteen Tons Lyrics | MetroLyrics

Coal mining has always been a hard, dirty, dangerous job that leads to black lung -- at least the United Mine Workers made sure that coal miners got to get the consumer goodies normal in American life. I doubt that President Trump will do much good for miners. He might compel America to burn more coal so that coal barons can wax fatter... but the miners will get pay cuts. I expect disability benefits to become harder to get. Thus more people will have to compete for the worst-paying jobs, as in retail sales.

[Eric the Green]

Trump doesn't do so well in Fox News internet poll.

http://bipartisanreport.com/2017/02/24/f...e-details/

[pbrower2a]

With all due respect for Trump supporters who truly believe in the President and his agenda:



Denver, Colorado. Liberal city in a liberal state... pointless, and it shows. I think that President Trump is trying to imitate Soviet-style mass rallies on behalf of the Leadership and the Party... how is that working?




More than 250 people gathered Monday across from the Georgia Capitol for a “Spirit of America” rally in support of President Donald Trump and his policies. Georgia tea party leader Debbie Dooley, who is organizing the rallies, said her group plans to hold about 70 such demonstrations across the country. Such a rally was held Saturday at the Okefenokee Fairgrounds in southeast Georgia. BOB ANDRES / BANDRES@AJC.COM

This is Atlanta. Of course Atlanta is a very liberal city, but its suburbs are not so liberal. Georgia has not voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1992. But if this is the sort of support that President Trump has now, then he might not win Georgia in 2020.

...Nobody can  blame the weather.

[pbrower2a]

From the inimitable Dr. Seuss:

[pbrower2a]

I expect to be in Indianapolis next weekend.... I'm not sure if this Trump rally is in Indianapolis, but that rally looks like a raging success:



It can certainly hold a candle to the Indy 500 racetrack -- when there is no race or time trial.
Tennessee:





The raised right arm could be an embarrassment.  OK, the fellow is holding a camera, so it is excused.

It's hard to believe that Al Gore was once a Senator from a state that I used to consider the most progressive in the South. That's over.

[Eric the Green]

(02-28-2017, 09:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: With all due respect for Trump supporters who truly believe in the President and his agenda:



Denver, Colorado. Liberal city in a liberal state... pointless, and it shows. I think that President Trump is trying to imitate Soviet-style mass rallies on behalf of the Leadership and the Party... how is that working?




More than 250 people gathered Monday across from the Georgia Capitol for a “Spirit of America” rally in support of President Donald Trump and his policies. Georgia tea party leader Debbie Dooley, who is organizing the rallies, said her group plans to hold about 70 such demonstrations across the country. Such a rally was held Saturday at the Okefenokee Fairgrounds in southeast Georgia. BOB ANDRES / BANDRES@AJC.COM

This is Atlanta. Of course Atlanta is a very liberal city, but its suburbs are not so liberal. Georgia has not voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1992. But if this is the sort of support that President Trump has now, then he might not win Georgia in 2020.

...Nobody can  blame the weather.

I wonder when these old fogeys will take up goosestepping?

[pbrower2a]

If you are wondering whether the Millennial Generation is ready to follow the Fueh... excuse me, President in whatever direction he wishes to go:



Apparently not. That's young adults born between early 1986 and early 1999. Donald Trump does not offer a civic visiionto which they can latch. Someone else will have to offer that.

...Chartreuse sounds like a nice color for a revolution, don't you think?

[Ragnarök_62]

(03-18-2017, 06:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: If you are wondering whether the Millennial Generation is ready to follow the Fueh... excuse me, President in whatever direction he wishes to go:

<snip>

Apparently not. That's young adults born between early 1986 and early  1999. Donald Trump does not offer a civic visiionto which they can latch. Someone else will have to offer that.

...Chartreuse sounds like a nice color for a revolution, don't you think?

1. Some voted, but the Democratic party didn't have much of a vision either.

2. Revolutions have a color of blood red, pretty much.

3. There's a subset of special snowflakes which , are you know like this: