Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

President Trump would lose Wisconsin if he were running for re-election this year.

41% approval.

It will be interesting to see how Governor Walker and Senator Baldwin fare.



Favorability:




Still useful for some states.


Approval:






Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%

Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.

[pbrower2a]

Does anyone still think that President Trump could be re-elected with approvals ad favorability ratings like these?

[Eric the Green]

(03-22-2017, 01:44 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Does anyone still think that President Trump could be re-elected with approvals and favorability ratings like these?

The ratings look bad for him, and good for people of good will. BUT, it's early.

It will depend on whom the Democrats nominate, and what his or her horoscope score is.

I recommend Terry McAuliffe, who has the best score of potential candidates.

Drump can still win, because of his fanatical base, his star-power to deceive a gullible American public, and the advantage Republicans have in voter suppression and wikileaks/Russian collusion.

How the public perceives Trump/Pence's performance in office by 2019-2020 will be a big factor, according to Lichtman and his "keys."

[pbrower2a]

Voting rates by state.

Some surprises?

1. Minnesota has a reputation as an ultra-liberal state because it was the only state to vote for Walter Mondale. But Democrats win Minnesota only because of high turnout of the vote. Minnesota would be a Lean R state if it voted at the same rate as Vermont.

2. Among the former-Confederate states, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia  are within the top 17 in voter participation. (#10, #16, and #11, respectively).  Others:

Louisiana 29
Georgia 31
Alabama 36
South Carolina 42
Mississippi 43
Arkansas 47
Tennessee 48
Texas 49

Non-voters are heavily Democratic.

[Eric the Green]

Just another indicator of the fact that blue states are better than red states at everything; even voting. 8 out of 10 of the top 10 voting states are blue; 8 out of the bottom 10 voting states are red.

[Eric the Green]

(03-23-2017, 06:52 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(03-23-2017, 04:17 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Just another indicator of the fact that blue states are better than red states at everything; even voting. 8 out of 10 of the top 10 voting states are blue; 8 out of the bottom 10 voting states are red.

Eric, sorry, look in the mirror. We suck. Of course, the fact that elections are often already in the bag by the time our polls close does not help.

You mean California, and New York too. The biggest states have bad voting turnout. But the trend otherwise is clear.

[pbrower2a]

It's a small state, but potentially a pivotal state -- New Hampshire. Democrats have not won the Presidency without the Granite State since 1976, and it was potentially the difference between Gore and Bush in 2000. It was one of Hillary Clinton's weakest wins.

Quote:A gold standard pollster, ARG, finds Trump deeply underwater in New Hampshire:

Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

New Hampshire is about D+2; it does not swing much from the national average. Polling has been slow, and it is hard to see how New Hampshire could disapprove of Donald Trump by 55% or more unless he is incredibly awful. This is close to consistent with about 35% approval for the President nationwide.

I see evidence that Donald Trump would lose six states that he won in 2016: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. At this point I would expect Donald Trump to lose 'bigly' in 2020.  Maybe not like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. The Democrats do not have an FDR or a Reagan, but they do not need one.  






Favorability:




Still useful for some states.


Approval:






Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

If you are wondering about South Carolina, which last voted for a Democratic nominee for President in 1976 (Jimmy Carter)... elected Republican pols have been exposed in a widespread scandal of political corruption. That can only hurt Republicans in 2020.

At this stage I can predict that the 2020 Democratic nominee for President wins at least  as strongly as Barack Obama in 2008 if he wins either Georgia or Ohio, for which I have no polling data.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup has President Trump down 36-57. If the difference between 36 and 43 reflects partisanship that allows grudging acceptance of him in the 2020 Presidential election, then barring some improvement for reasons other than "It's gotta get better 'cause it can't get worse", he is setting the GOP up for landslide losses in 2020 at the latest and even surprising losses in 2018.

Even Rasmussen, usually sympathetic to Republicans, gets this result:

Rasmussen

Total (-9):
45 (+1)
54 (-2)

Strongly (-16):
28 (-1)
44 (-2)

...this is without a disaster in foreign policy, a military debacle, an economic tailspin, galloping inflation, or violent unrest.

[pbrower2a]

(02-23-2017, 02:10 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Three years away from the start of the real campaigning of the 2020 Presidential election I can make the earliest possible prediction of its results. I'm seeing an early pattern, with the shift of support from Obama to Trump looking transient in the extreme. I have eighteen states with approval or favorability ratings (and favorabiliy ratings look the same as approval ratings when both are shown ; one poll of Michigan asked about both and the results  were off each other by 1% although straddling a category).

Note that I make some assumptions.

First, that the 2020 election will be free and fair.  

Anything else (1) isn't interesting, (2) is a violation of over 200 years of precedent, and (3) indicates that the comparative few who own the assets and grab the income either have gained total power or have lost everything in a revolution or apocalyptic war.

Second, that American political culture does not change profoundly in the meantime.  

Ethnic divides and religious patterns remain much the same and have much the same general orientation. There is no trend toward fundamentalist religion or toward irreligion that would change voting patters. We haven't seen that since the late 1970s  and I don't expect to see that now.

Third, that the states change in their voting behavior only due to demographic change

The Hispanic and Asian populations are growing rapidly and making a bigger part of the electorate while black and white populations become lesser shares.

Fourth, approval-disapproval differentials remain much the same as they are now.

That assumes that President Trump does not endure even further losses of approval or make a miraculous recovery.  Could things go worse for him? Sure. Mass unrest. Economic meltdown. Military or diplomatic debacles. Scandals involving sex or financial turpitude.  I'm not saying that any one of those will happen, but I can't rule them out. If any of these happen, then Donald Trump might not even run for re-election, in which case all bets are off.  

Fifth, that President Trump will run for election.

He will not die, become incapacitated, resign, or be impeached. To be sure, if he dislikes the Presidency he might choose not to run while expressing some noble cause for not seeking a second term, as did LBJ.

Sixth, that third parties will not greatly shape the election.

If the liberal side splits significantly, then President Trump wins. If some conservative-leaning nominee gets 10% or more of the vote, then Trump loses 'bigly'.

>>>>I have enough approval and favorability ratings of states to create a skeleton of a likely 2020 Presidential election. There are states (Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin) for which I have nothing so far, for which I would like some data.

So add 6% to the most recent number for approval or favorability (where I had both favorability and approval, they were basically the same -- I prefer approval) to get the likely share of the vote in any state in the upcoming election. Nate Silver has a model for elected (not appointed) Governors and Senators that suggests that they normally lose support once they start legislating or governing because they can't please everyone who voted for them, but that they typically gain about 6% of the vote from an approval rating at the beginning of a campaign season by campaigning. That's the 'average' Governor or Senator running against the 'average' challenger. It worked well with Obama, whose approval ratings were in the mid 40s early in 2016, and he barely got re-elected by the popular vote. If it applies to Senators and Governors, then why not to the President?

So here are the data. I normed some unflattering polls for Trump in Florida and North Carolina to the national average , but other than that I simply took the latest numbers. Here is the raw data:

NY - 31 MA - 25  NJ - 36 AZ - 39 FL - 34 (raise to 40) NC- 36 (raise to 40) MI-40 WV - 58 CA -34 NH - 43 VA - 38 IA - 42 AR - 60 TX - 46 VA -32 TN - 51 MD -29 PA - 32 SC - 44

Add 6 to the approval rating, and you get the following map:

     


white -- 49-51% for Trump (a virtual tie)

Trump wins:

60% or more
55-59.9%
51.0-54.9%

Trump loses, getting :

40% or less
40-44.9%
45-48.9%

(03-28-2017, 12:04 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(03-27-2017, 06:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Gallup has President Trump down 36-57. If the difference between 36 and 43 reflects partisanship that allows grudging acceptance of him in the 2020 Presidential election, then barring some improvement for reasons other than "It's gotta get better 'cause it can't get worse", he is setting the GOP up for landslide losses in 2020 at the latest and even surprising losses in 2018.

Even Rasmussen, usually sympathetic to Republicans, gets this result:

Rasmussen

Total (-9):
45 (+1)
54 (-2)

Strongly (-16):
28 (-1)
44 (-2)

...this is without a disaster in foreign policy, a military debacle, an economic tailspin, galloping inflation, or violent unrest.

For anyone in any party (or non party) who's not a completely batshit insane loon, these are dark, dark times for the US.  2020 will be, at best, what I'd term a band aid election. It may stop the bleeding (I hope).

It could be a wave. Democrats will have plenty of opportunity to win Senate seats that they lost in 2014.  If Democrats can tie Republican pols to a highly-unpopular President, then they will.  But in the meantime... the only chance for any semblance of political sanity in America is for Democrats to gain the House and a bunch of Governors' offices.

[pbrower2a]

The map is dated; he loses Colorado and Wisconsin. I hope to have data on Ohio one of these days.

[pbrower2a]

Some charts. Trump supporters -- see them and weep. The economic, diplomatic, and military consequences will be here soon enough. We have a little more than a year and a half before we see the electoral consequences in the 2018 elections.



It keeps getting worse.



I doubt that many people will vote for him in 2020 if they strongly disapprove of him unless the Democrats nominate someone utterly abominable. But should Donald Trump lose basically the whole of those who "strongly disapprove" and half those who "somewhat disapprove", then he loses big.  



The few people who are not highly partisan will be the swing voters of 2018 and 2020 -- and they do not like Donald Trump.



Figuring that Hispanics have the most to lose from a rushed campaign to deport illegal aliens... that is where the largest amount of support has eviscerated. But on the whole, approval by white people of his performance as President is already close to the 50-50 range, With only 50% of the white vote in 2020 he would lose in a landslide much like Carter in 1980 or Hoover in 1932.

[pbrower2a]

There are plenty of reasons for Constitutional purists, people believing in a strong defense, and free-market mavens to hold Donald Trump in contempt. Donald Trump is closer to being a fascist (a big-government right-winger) than to being a conservative.

I found it ominous that Donald Trump praised brutal dictators instead of the likes of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

[pbrower2a]

Quote:

Quote:From Nate Silver's 538.com

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tru...historical

It has gotten very ugly very fast. There's little reserve of good will for the President.

[pbrower2a]

PPP: Trump approval 40, disapproval 53.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2..._33017.pdf

Not as blatant as Gallup or even Quinnipiac -- but the Gallup results are newer and could be more valid now.

The only good news for Trump is that Americans prefer him to Mike Pence. Insurance against impeachment, I suppose.

On Trump:

honest/dishonest 39/55
non-liar/liar 44/50
do not release/release tax returns 33/61
not divest/divest 30/64
the wall with Mexico 37/55

impeach or not -- practically even

Others:

Russia 13/64
Putin 9/72
Konnelsky 19/54 ("Mc" and "sky" are both patronymics -- get it?)
Ryan 21/64

Congress itself 11-68

Congressional ballot, 2018: 48-43 edge Democratic

Trust Obama (53) or Trump (42)

Trump loses badly to Biden, Sanders; Franken, Booker, and Warren already have edges.

... Democrats: nominate the most Obama-like pol for President, and expect to win big in 2020.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia poll:

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 59%

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/march%2028%20report%20final.pdf

Quote:

Quote:New York - Quinnipiac:

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 67%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ny/ny...4fmbx.pdf/

Matches the Siena poll.

Virginia:

Another poll of Virginia, ratifying what looked like an outlier. President Trump did lose Virginia, but nothing like this. Add 6% to the approval rating, and he gets only 43% of the binary vote in Virginia. Should Donald Trump get that little of the vote  in 2020 he would under-perform Goldwater in Virginia in 1964.




New York:

This is not the state that I most wanted to see a poll from (Ohio), but it gives me an unambiguous statement on approval of the President.  I dislike the "excellent-good-fair-poor" division because the word "fair" can have positive connotations.  "Fair" playing of the violin by a seven-year-old child is remarkable. "Fair" playing of a violin by an adult isn't so remarkable.  

This is down in the range of approvals that I have seen for President Obama in such states as Oklahoma and Wyoming. One of the states that knows the President best likes him least.

Quote:Gallup (nationwide):

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

Jack Benny's violin playing was more appealing than this Presidency. (Actually he simply played a violin out of tune; his technique was good enough).

Quote:FDU poll of New Jersey:

Approve 28% (-9)
Disapprove 61% (+11)

Really, really awful in what is probably the state in which he is second-best known. Nothing for Connecticut, yet, which would complete the Tri-State.




Favorability:




Still useful for some states.


Approval:








Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.

[pbrower2a]

Posted in another forum. One poll has Donald Trump with an approval rating just below 35%.

Quote:

Quote:IBD/TIPP (3/24 - 3/30)

Approval: 34%
Disapproval: 56%

Yikes?

Wowza. So now at least more than one pollster has already hit the low 30s.

Analogues for an incumbent President with such a low approval rating. 1932:



FDR 57.41%, Hoover 41.65% 472-59 in the electoral vote

1980:



1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41.01%, Anderson 6.61% 489-49 in the electoral vote.

Add about 6.5% to the approval rating of an incumbent Senator, Governor, or President, and you get a good estimate of how he will do in the upcoming election. It worked well with Reagan,  Dubya, and Obama; it will likely work well (if not for) Trump.

Hoover and Carter had something that Trump lacks -- a moral compass. I'm not going to guess what states would comprise 55 or so electoral votes for a Republican President seeking re-election and failing as badly as Hoover or Carter. Trump would lose[size=38pt] TEXAS![/size]

I have been slow to put those results in this thread as portents of what awaits the President in 2020, This is the lowest nationwide approval rating that I have seen for this President, and I am too careful to predict yet that such a low approval rating will stick. I'm suggesting what happens if the President is so unpopular at the start of the 2020 campaign.

So what do the Democrats need to do to win such a blowout against a President with such low approval ratings? The 'new Obama' would do it.

(Relevant to this site, but not where I posted this)

We have yet to get any idea of what a late-wave Idealist would be like as a Presidential nominee unless we are old enough to remember FDR as President first-hand, which in 2020 means that one would likely be 80+. On the other side, Generation X has already shown what a "Mature Reactive" would be like without one having to remember Eisenhower as President first-hand without being an infant (by then close to 70). For many Americans, Barack Obama is the best President that they have ever known. A President like Truman, Eisenhower, or Obama (and Obama has acted throughout his Presidency as if in his 60s even if he was 47 when inaugurated) might not be the ideal President, but it's easy to imagine far worse, like an immature Reactive who uses his power largely to settle scores or an elderly Idealist who never grew up.

[pbrower2a]

(04-03-2017, 11:29 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(03-28-2017, 06:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: There are plenty of reasons for Constitutional purists, people believing in a strong defense,  and free-market mavens to hold Donald Trump in contempt. Donald Trump is closer to being a fascist (a big-government right-winger) than to being a conservative.

I found it ominous that Donald Trump praised brutal dictators instead of the likes of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

Spot on.

Another thing that galls me are GOPers who have nothing in common with Trump but are silent about it. Some even try to whistle past the graveyard, telling themselves that Trump will change things in a similar manner as Reagan. They so want their Reagan reincarnated, they are willing to embrace a huckster. See the part in my tagline about false Christs.

Whoops! I forgot to include Bible-believing Christians.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

Some brutal numbers in the Quinnipiac poll:

White College Educated
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Approve 35 79 6 32 39 31 36 51
Disapprove 57 14 91 57 51 63 58 39
DK/NA 8 7 3 11 11 5 6 10

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht

Approve 21 30 41 42 47 41 43 16
Disapprove 70 60 52 51 44 53 48 77
DK/NA 8 10 8 6 10 7 8 7

61 - 34 percent that he is not honest;
55 - 40 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
57 - 39 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
66 - 29 percent that he is not level-headed;
64 - 33 percent that he is a strong person;
60 - 35 percent that he is intelligent;
61 - 34 percent that he does not share their values.
Disapprove 61 - 29 percent of the way he is handling the environment;
Disapprove 48 - 41 percent of the way he is handling the economy;
Disapprove 58 - 33 percent of the way he is handling foreign policy;
Disapprove 49 - 42 percent of the way he is handling terrorism;
Disapprove 57 - 39 percent of the way he is handling immigration issues.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=2448

American voters disapprove 70 - 21 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing, compared to a 64 - 29 percent disapproval March 22.

Voters disapprove 57 - 34 percent of the job Democrats in Congress are doing.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan gets a negative 28 - 52 percent favorability rating, compared to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's negative 30 - 47 percent.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell gets a negative 14 - 47 percent favorability rating, compared to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's negative 25 - 36 percent.

"As President Trump's approval tanks, Congress, especially Republicans, follow right behind him," Malloy said.

[pbrower2a]

Franken and Reagan both got their starts in entertainment and found their way into entertainment.

[pbrower2a]

[quote pid='24648' dateline='1491527567']
Polls of some kind are out for some 23 states as I offer this:



In a true binary race with this level of support, President Trump still gets about 53%  of the vote in  Utah (add 6% top the approval rating and you usually get the share of the vote in the election) -- but he could lose Utah if he gets a strong challenge from a conservative alternative more libertarian in economics and having a lifestyle and business connections closer to LDS values. As in 2016, he cannot assume Utah as given.  In a true binary election (which the Presidential race in Utah was not), a Republican needs to win about 65% of the vote in Utah to have a chance to win. I would still project him to get 53% of the vote in Utah (add 6% to approval under normal circumstances). President Trump will need Utah to win in 2020, and he will need to win it big.
.

C'mon, Ohio!


Favorability:



*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.   


Still useful for some states.


Approval:




Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.

Note the non-standard treatment of Utah. A poll of Utah released today has Donald Trump underwater 47-50; a poll from a week earlier had him up 54-41, which was still weak for a right-wing Republican in Utah.
[/quote]