Looking Toward The Next High

[Eric the Green]

(05-26-2018, 09:39 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(05-24-2018, 12:50 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice.  They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore.  Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD.  I view that mood as having already changed....I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.

What I sense here is more hope than analysis.  What happened to the Parkland kids has happened to others before, and it continued on afterward. There is no evidence that it will be any different this time.  If Republicans hold on to their majorities this fall, the Parkland kids will have failed.  Odds are most of them will move on from high school and the issue will lose salience. We really don't know what will happen. 

You suggest 911 and 2008 were big enough deals for them to comprise a 4T. This of course is possible, but if its the case then, event wise, the 4T ended years ago.  For the 4T  to continue past 2010 or so, more stuff has to keep happening. One might think Donald Trump is something, but I do not see all that much difference between Trump and the alternative, Ted Cruz, who it seems to me would be just as bad (or good) as Trump. Trump hasn't done anything that a bog-standard Republican wouldn't do. He has embraced GWBush's neocon ways, his economics and his social policy.

Now if Clinton had won that would indicate a 4T continuation as the only time Democrats have won a third term were in social moment turnings. This has not been the case for Republicans who won third terms in 1988, 1928 and 1908 (all 3Ts) and 1872 (1T).  But that did not happen.

There was no change in foreign policy. We began a crusade in the Middle East in 1991 that continues on to this day. If we had a 4T, it didn't affect our crusading.

Economic trends of flat wages and rising inequality over the past 40 years are still in force. If we had a 4T it did not affect the economy in any persistence fashion that I can see.

Social moments are supposed to be a time of political turmoil and popular unrest. In past 2Ts and 4Ts were have seen lots of riots, assassinations, domestic terrorism, violent protest. None of this is present. To see social violence today one had to consider rampage murders (e.g. mass shootings) as an additional category of unrest like riots. I do this as so can show the expected spike in violence for this 4T, but it is not clear this categorization is valid. If I don't include these events then the past couple decades fail "the 4T test" for this measure too.

Finally a 4T is supposed to restructure the government. That hasn't happened either.

There is not a very strong case that we even had a 4T.

It is a weak case, for the reasons you say.

Even persecution of Muslims and so on has not risen to the level of what happened to perceived opponents in previous 4T wartime periods.

One thing to point out though, is that the kids have vowed to continue to be active. We'll see if they do this, but if so, they will be joined by a continual stream of new activists that has happened after almost every mass shooting. Mass shootings will continue and get worse until the politics of guns shifts, whether by the Parkland kids, Everytown for Gun Responsibility, Gabby Giffords' organization, or the next groups that form, and all of them together.

Hope is not analysis, but analysis alone is not prediction.

[TheNomad]

(05-26-2018, 05:33 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-25-2018, 11:57 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-25-2018, 11:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-25-2018, 03:18 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know if I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.

Per your next to last line, the name Homeland Generation was given to those born mostly from the time of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks for the reason that homeland security became a new cabinet department. That date is closer to 2002 than to 2000, so that would be about right.

Also, why do you feel that a revolution in the US is unlikely to succeed? Because we might get a Napoleon clone like France got after their revolution? We have the closest thing to a Napoleon-type in power right now. Might there be another equivalent of Grant vs. Lee?

The civil war rebellion failed; Lee lost. I just don't think Americans support violent revolutions; our country is too conservative and fearful; too convinced it is the greatest nation in the world as it is. It looks down on those who act up and disobey the law. And we are too divided; it will be a long time before we are unified behind one vision and program of progress; unified enough to overthrow the government and agree on what replaces it. And the law has superior resources. Less violent movements can bring progress, but even that is rare today; I hope it can happen again, and think it will in the next 10 years, and in the next 2T too. Perhaps we will shift bigly and the conservatives will just all melt away. It's always possible. But then, I'm an optimistic snowflake as The Nomad says.... so, which side will melt away?? is the question...

You said: I just don't think Americans support violent revolutions

I've been saying this.  We MAY be actively blind to the idea no one is going to support a major war effort right now and no one is going to sacrifice the blessed children on the altar of foreign war right now.  Which means 911 and the following wars WERE the conflict of the Crisis.  People were utterly hypnotized by the american flag.  IT WAS OK GOOD AND RIGHT to rant about destroying muslims in revenge.

What happened after 911 really does fit the paradigm described by the authors.  One arm of the Crisis is war, the other economic.  These things have already happened.  This, the High should be coming much sooner.

You may be optimistic, but are you truly that if you don't think the 911 wars and the ensuing transformation of our culture WAS NOT ENOUGH to fit the bill.  No, there has to be MORE.  Is that optimistic?

Yes, because it's the MORE where real positive change could be made. 9-11 and its aftermath were a negative change; part of the unravelling, taking us back to business as usual militarism, and human rights violations to boot. That was not a transformation at all, but a serious regression.

Usually, the economic crisis happens first. Also, don't forget my point. Wars happen in 3Ts too. World War One. The War with Mexico. The French and Indian War. And, the 9-11 wars. None of these were the "big ones." The 4T ones.

Right now, I don't think Americans will support a war. But the war cycle is only 12 years long. Although it's true the war that started at the preceding cycle, 9-11/Afghanistan, lasted through the whole cycle and beyond. Then in 2013-14 the next cycle took us back to Iraq to fight the IS and almost into Syria. So, the Afghan war continues, at a low level, as it has off and on since it started. But no, I think the Trump presidency will not see a new USA war; he will fulfill his America First stance in that respect. Now, I could be wrong, but I don't think so. It's true that even Americans need a rest and a respite before going into another war. But his bullying could set the stage for what happens when the war cycle comes around again in 2025.

Being only every 12 years, a war doesn't always happen every cycle, but often the basis for the next war happens. The big thing though, is that in 2025 we not only have the 12 year war cycle, but the 84-year one. The "big one" is due then too. That cycle is hard to deny. So, it looks like another war is ahead at the end of this 4T.

I am good at predicting wars. But I hope, someday, that I will be poor at it, because my prediction of a more long-term revolution of peace will come true too.

Don't forget, as horrible as World War Two was, and as much as we don't want another one, it did bring some positive transformation. Women and blacks advanced in society, and because of that, they demanded more in the next 2T. Technology progressed, and the United Nations was founded. The USA became the responsible leader of the free world, and the free world itself expanded, since the war ended the old imperial aristocracy in Germany and spelled the end of colonial empires. After world war two, there were no further regressions back from the advance of democracy in Western and Central Europe.

The Civil war, as horrible as it was, and as much as we don't want another one, but may indeed get a smaller one, it did free the slaves, and the industrial revolution ramped up.

The Revolution, which cost its leaders their lives, fortunes and sacred honor, did bring about the first constitutional republic in the world, and the bill of rights. It spread to Europe too, where the French created the second one; which did not last, but paved the way for gradual progress toward free republics after the war that resulted.

9-11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq resulted in no progress or positive change at all, but regression and nothing but regression. If we are at the end of the 4T, then this saeculum only lasted 72 years. It is supposed to last about 82.

All your points are well-made.  It is hard to argue them.

However, when you say 911 and the ensuing alteration of our civilization was just "return to business as usual" I'm not sure you are remembering or perhaps were not really exposed(?) to that aftermath sufficiently. We were not inundating with top-down hypnosis to immediately get on board with "America Under Attack" when the images of the planes exploding into the towers were playing on loops for entire days afterward. We were made to believe the next event could be a school, a mall, or even random urban centers that might destroy thousand upon thousands. There absolutely was a massive change in our civilization on a scale not see in at least during my lifetime. Bush I invaded Iraq but the public support was not there. The propaganda was not sufficiently in enough swing to convince anyone on a mass scale.

4T is not meant for transformation of outer life like institutions and chronic problems over the unraveling and crisis periods. 1st Turnings are that time.

[TheNomad]

(05-26-2018, 09:39 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(05-24-2018, 12:50 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice.  They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore.  Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD.  I view that mood as having already changed....I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.

What I sense here is more hope than analysis.  What happened to the Parkland kids has happened to others before, and it continued on afterward. There is no evidence that it will be any different this time.  If Republicans hold on to their majorities this fall, the Parkland kids will have failed.  Odds are most of them will move on from high school and the issue will lose salience. We really don't know what will happen. 

You suggest 911 and 2008 were big enough deals for them to comprise a 4T. This of course is possible, but if its the case then, event wise, the 4T ended years ago.  For the 4T  to continue past 2010 or so, more stuff has to keep happening. One might think Donald Trump is something, but I do not see all that much difference between Trump and the alternative, Ted Cruz, who it seems to me would be just as bad (or good) as Trump. Trump hasn't done anything that a bog-standard Republican wouldn't do. He has embraced GWBush's neocon ways, his economics and his social policy.

Now if Clinton had won that would indicate a 4T continuation as the only time Democrats have won a third term were in social moment turnings. This has not been the case for Republicans who won third terms in 1988, 1928 and 1908 (all 3Ts) and 1872 (1T).  But that did not happen.

There was no change in foreign policy. We began a crusade in the Middle East in 1991 that continues on to this day. If we had a 4T, it didn't affect our crusading.

Economic trends of flat wages and rising inequality over the past 40 years are still in force. If we had a 4T it did not affect the economy in any persistence fashion that I can see.

Social moments are supposed to be a time of political turmoil and popular unrest. In past 2Ts and 4Ts were have seen lots of riots, assassinations, domestic terrorism, violent protest. None of this is present. To see social violence today one had to consider rampage murders (e.g. mass shootings) as an additional category of unrest like riots. I do this as so can show the expected spike in violence for this 4T, but it is not clear this categorization is valid. If I don't include these events then the past couple decades fail "the 4T test" for this measure too.

Finally a 4T is supposed to restructure the government. That hasn't happened either.

There is not a very strong case that we even had a 4T.

You said: Finally a 4T is supposed to restructure the government. That hasn't happened either.

But didn't the restructuring happen after the G.I.s returned from war?  The restructuring of public institutions on a massive scale did not happen until the Axis was laid waste.  All of these indicators of the millennial generations suggest they are simply too old and the archetype is finished in terms of spawning.  I can see that the millennials who are above 35(?)yo at the top of the bracket for them to begin addressing public systems/infrastructure, etc because they are too old to really enter some future war.  The youngest Millennial right now is 18yo but the vast majority have past that marker.

Dude they are only getting older.  How old were G.I.s when entering WWII?  I may be mistake with the age ranges, but if I'm right, they were in their 20s respectively.  That fits.  Millennials are simply too old to serve in a future war.  It doesn't fit the overall model of a saeculum.  If I'm right with calculations, it would be Artists to fight these future wars and we now that doesn't happen.  They may fight alongside Heros but not alone.

[TheNomad]

(05-26-2018, 11:11 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: "I do agree, a First Turning must coincide with transformation of what caused the Crisis." This is not in accord with the theory, or with past 1Ts. First Turnings are times of stasis, conformity, consolidation, consensus, recovery, status quo, capital and infrastructure development, spirit death. First Turnings are not times of transformation. Those are in social moment turnings, the 4th and 2nd. In a 4th turning, a crisis leads to a transformation. We've had the crisis, but not the transformation yet. It won't happen unless it happens in the next 10 years, which will be the second half of a fourth turning. If we don't, then the cycle has ended, and the USA is in steep decline.

Agreed, all.  The Millennial mindset is stasis and conformity - almost to the extreme.  You mention also tho, 1st T are also a time of institutional transformation.  I can see that beginning very soon.  How long (consider it) how long would it have to take for the millennial to be primed for some war, fight it, swaths of the generation die and THEN return to enter public life with the mission of transforming institutions?  That would be longer than a decade for it to be feasible. 

You say the "second half of the 4T" which mean millennials will be in an age bracket to be mid 30s to mid 50s and that doesn't really fit with comparison to WWII scenario.  They were out and spawning in the suburbs by the 1950s.  And even by then, the "outer" transformation that addresses weak public institutions, etc was already really in full swing.

The ages of the archetypes do not really fit, and length of turnings do not really fit.  The only way to make them fit is to expand the cycle to possibly unreasonable lengths.

And you finish with "if we don't, America is in decline".  So, it is either this super expanded time period OR America will die.

[TheNomad]

(05-26-2018, 11:21 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-26-2018, 09:39 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(05-24-2018, 12:50 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice.  They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore.  Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD.  I view that mood as having already changed....I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.

What I sense here is more hope than analysis.  What happened to the Parkland kids has happened to others before, and it continued on afterward. There is no evidence that it will be any different this time.  If Republicans hold on to their majorities this fall, the Parkland kids will have failed.  Odds are most of them will move on from high school and the issue will lose salience. We really don't know what will happen. 

You suggest 911 and 2008 were big enough deals for them to comprise a 4T. This of course is possible, but if its the case then, event wise, the 4T ended years ago.  For the 4T  to continue past 2010 or so, more stuff has to keep happening. One might think Donald Trump is something, but I do not see all that much difference between Trump and the alternative, Ted Cruz, who it seems to me would be just as bad (or good) as Trump. Trump hasn't done anything that a bog-standard Republican wouldn't do. He has embraced GWBush's neocon ways, his economics and his social policy.

Now if Clinton had won that would indicate a 4T continuation as the only time Democrats have won a third term were in social moment turnings. This has not been the case for Republicans who won third terms in 1988, 1928 and 1908 (all 3Ts) and 1872 (1T).  But that did not happen.

There was no change in foreign policy. We began a crusade in the Middle East in 1991 that continues on to this day. If we had a 4T, it didn't affect our crusading.

Economic trends of flat wages and rising inequality over the past 40 years are still in force. If we had a 4T it did not affect the economy in any persistence fashion that I can see.

Social moments are supposed to be a time of political turmoil and popular unrest. In past 2Ts and 4Ts were have seen lots of riots, assassinations, domestic terrorism, violent protest. None of this is present. To see social violence today one had to consider rampage murders (e.g. mass shootings) as an additional category of unrest like riots. I do this as so can show the expected spike in violence for this 4T, but it is not clear this categorization is valid. If I don't include these events then the past couple decades fail "the 4T test" for this measure too.

Finally a 4T is supposed to restructure the government. That hasn't happened either.

There is not a very strong case that we even had a 4T.

It is a weak case, for the reasons you say.

Even persecution of Muslims and so on has not risen to the level of what happened to perceived opponents in previous 4T wartime periods.

One thing to point out though, is that the kids have vowed to continue to be active. We'll see if they do this, but if so, they will be joined by a continual stream of new activists that has happened after almost every mass shooting. Mass shootings will continue and get worse until the politics of guns shifts, whether by the Parkland kids, Everytown for Gun Responsibility, Gabby Giffords' organization, or the next groups that form, and all of them together.

Hope is not analysis, but analysis alone is not prediction.

Please allow my addendum?

They said: What I sense here is more hope than analysis.  What happened to the Parkland kids has happened to others before, and it continued on afterward. There is no evidence that it will be any different this time.  If Republicans hold on to their majorities this fall, the Parkland kids will have failed.  Odds are most of them will move on from high school and the issue will lose salience. We really don't know what will happen.

CONTRARY!  I explained in another post, no one cared with that I think FIRST shooting in Colorado... no one cared for many of the shootings that happened after.  It was only until the Hero archetypes were being slain that public outrage happened.  If you cannot see th different between those earlier incidents and then these newer ones will millions gathering in washington mall, I don't know why.

You said: Economic trends of flat wages and rising inequality over the past 40 years are still in force. If we had a 4T it did not affect the economy in any persistence fashion that I can see.

This is because millennials are not fully established with the sufficient power to affect these things  But will be soon.  To say they must FIRST go fight a war and die en masse, I don't see it.  The end of a 4th turning is actually the beginning of the 1st.  And I was thinking, the Turning and the High (or crisis or any of the other monikers) they do not always exactly line up.

[Mikebert]

(05-26-2018, 11:21 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One thing to point out though, is that the kids have vowed to continue to be active. We'll see if they do this, but if so, they will be joined by a continual stream of new activists that has happened after almost every mass shooting. Mass shootings will continue and get worse until the politics of guns shifts, whether by the Parkland kids, Everytown for Gun Responsibility, Gabby Giffords' organization, or the next groups that form, and all of them together.

Very possibly this will happen (I hope so).  But it hasn't happened yet. So they cannot "count" as evidence of a 4T movement until they actually achieve something, which means more time is needed for the last decade or two to bear more than a superficial resemblance to a 4T.

[Mikebert]

(05-26-2018, 01:41 PM)TheNomad Wrote: You said: Finally a 4T is supposed to restructure the government. That hasn't happened either.

But didn't the restructuring happen after the G.I.s returned from war?

Did you read the link?  The restructuring started in the 1930's, and massively accelerated during WW II. In 1940 the federal government had 500K employees. By 1945 it had 3 million, and today it also has 3 million. The last 4T created big government that was fully in place in 1946 when the 4T ended.

Quote:The restructuring of public institutions on a massive scale did not happen until the Axis was laid waste.

Oh no it didn't. The government expanded to perform a new role of economic manager, using a combination of tax, fiscal, monetary and "safety set" programs all designed to damp out extreme economic oscillations of the sort that got us the Great Depression.  This management function was tested to a greater extent that it would be afterward during the war when agencies like the Office  of Price Administration, the National War Labor Board, and the War Production Board fundamentally restructured the economy to provide strong, widely shared income of all income quintiles in the decades after the war. It was quite deliberate and it worked remarkably well. 

We had the same inequality problem going into the 4T last time as we have now.  They were able to figure out the cause of it and then solve it in the last 4T.  The reason why they did this was it had become a PROBLEM (it created the Depression, which gave us a 4T).  

We started to have an inequality problem again in the 1990's. We know the cause the problem and how to solve it then. Nothing was done about it because it wasn't a PROBLEM (i.e. not an economic 4T).  When the specter of Depression arose in the stock bubble collapse of 2002, the Fed laid out what their response would be.  Basically if "it" (deflation) threatened to happen, they would break open the dams and flood the system with oceans of money. And when we we actually had a panic in 2008 that is just what they did (in fact the guy who gave the speech in 2002 was in charge).  They managed to prevent the panic from becoming a PROBLEM. Thus, nothing needed to be done about the structural issues that created these bubbles and crashes in the first place (and nothing was--they just papered it over and kicked the can down the road, standard 3T stuff).  So far, it has worked. The economy continues to putter along without seriously derailment.* That is, we haven't had a 4T in economics yet.

Quote:Dude they are only getting older.  How old were G.I.s when entering WWII?  I may be mistake with the age ranges, but if I'm right, they were in their 20s respectively.  That fits.  Millennials are simply too old to serve in a future war.  It doesn't fit the overall model of a saeculum.

First of all, generations do not exist independently of the turning. The constellation model S&H proposed as a possible mechanism for the cycle does not work. You can see this for yourself by calculating when constellations arise. The constellation appears *well before* when the new generation starts being born.

With this result we have to go to the second idea they proposed, which is that coming of age has a big effect on forging generations. I described this concept before as a generational model. Thus, which cohorts are millennial depends on when the 4T started. And when the millennials end, and the new artists begin, depends on when the 4T ends.  So if you favor 2001, then you might include 1980 and 1981 in with millies.  If you favor 2008, then you would have those early and mid-1980's cohorts still Gen X. 

But here generations are being used as a *social* category, like race or class or religion. Social generations are different from the psychological generations that Pew talks about, for example. You can see this for yourself by looking at the length of the Pew generations (ca 15 years) and the historical S&H generations (ca 25 years)  They have radically different lengths.

S&H sort of blurred these two senses of generations together: psychological generations (like Pew) have peer personalities; social generations create history and history creates social generations.  By doing so, they created the sense that can define generations using surveys like Pew does, and then used them as a social generation (i.e. the type that the historical generations belong to) to make turning predictions.  That is using apples for oranges.

The take home message is you cannot use millies to make conclusions about when the 4T happened, because they are created by the 4T, not the other way around.

On the other hand you can look at the generational composition of the societal leaders. Today's leaders collectively came of age  in a time where major changes were being achieved by political action. A decade from now those in power will have come of age in a time of political quiescence.  Today's leaders have paradigms which hold that big changes (i.e. the kind of stuff that happens in a 4T) are politically possible.  Those in power a decade hence will not have this belief. This shifting leader generational paradigm is what helps bring about turnings (assuming the idea that generations have anything to do with historical cycles is true)  But maybe its not true, which may be why this era is not seeming like much of a 4T.

*serious derailment happens when the nation's financial elites experience what ordinary citizens did in 2008-2009.

[Eric the Green]

(05-26-2018, 01:52 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-26-2018, 11:11 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: "I do agree, a First Turning must coincide with transformation of what caused the Crisis." This is not in accord with the theory, or with past 1Ts. First Turnings are times of stasis, conformity, consolidation, consensus, recovery, status quo, capital and infrastructure development, spirit death. First Turnings are not times of transformation. Those are in social moment turnings, the 4th and 2nd. In a 4th turning, a crisis leads to a transformation. We've had the crisis, but not the transformation yet. It won't happen unless it happens in the next 10 years, which will be the second half of a fourth turning. If we don't, then the cycle has ended, and the USA is in steep decline.

Agreed, all.  The Millennial mindset is stasis and conformity - almost to the extreme.  You mention also tho, 1st T are also a time of institutional transformation.  I can see that beginning very soon.  How long (consider it) how long would it have to take for the millennial to be primed for some war, fight it, swaths of the generation die and THEN return to enter public life with the mission of transforming institutions?  That would be longer than a decade for it to be feasible. 

You say the "second half of the 4T" which mean millennials will be in an age bracket to be mid 30s to mid 50s and that doesn't really fit with comparison to WWII scenario.  They were out and spawning in the suburbs by the 1950s.  And even by then, the "outer" transformation that addresses weak public institutions, etc was already really in full swing.

The ages of the archetypes do not really fit, and length of turnings do not really fit.  The only way to make them fit is to expand the cycle to possibly unreasonable lengths.

And you finish with "if we don't, America is in decline".  So, it is either this super expanded time period OR America will die.

We don't have our time scenarios quite right here. The 4T is the time of institutional transformation, is what I say. I wouldn't say the millennial mindset is stasis and conformity; that's the first turning mindset. It takes at least three generations living at any one time to create a mood or mindset. The first turning is a spell of relief, recovery, conformity, consensus, stasis, materialism and ongoing building after a major transformation that usually involved both an economic and military crisis.

The second half of the 4T means from now until 2028-29. So right now, as the second half of the 4T begins, millennials are in youth, 36 years old down to 16. By the time it ends they will be 10 years older, 46 down to 26; so civic millennials will be entering middle age in the 1T, which is why it's a 1T, along with Gen Z artists entering youth, Alpha prophets entering childhood, Xer nomads entering elderhood, and Boomer prophets slowly going out to pasture.

This is all exactly according to the schedule, as described by Mr. Howe.

[Eric the Green]

(05-27-2018, 05:05 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(05-26-2018, 11:21 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One thing to point out though, is that the kids have vowed to continue to be active. We'll see if they do this, but if so, they will be joined by a continual stream of new activists that has happened after almost every mass shooting. Mass shootings will continue and get worse until the politics of guns shifts, whether by the Parkland kids, Everytown for Gun Responsibility, Gabby Giffords' organization, or the next groups that form, and all of them together.

Very possibly this will happen (I hope so).  But it hasn't happened yet. So they cannot "count" as evidence of a 4T movement until they actually achieve something, which means more time is needed for the last decade or two to bear more than a superficial resemblance to a 4T.

I agree. It may take more time than we want or expect. I suspect that Trump may even win re-election, perish the thought. The Democrats may not nominate Landrieu or McAuliffe, in which case they are likely to lose. Bernie would be a crapshoot I could not predict. It might take until 2022 before a progressive sunami wipes out the GOP (in the typical 6th year beating administered to the party in the White House, but even more so), and turns Drump into a virtual puppet or dumps him and Pence out of office. Then that leaves 4 years of full progressive leadership after 2024 (plus the prior 2 years of progressive congressional power) in which the country could change beyond recognition. Or, things may shift sooner. But if not, after 2020 I know that folks like you and David Kaiser and The Nomad here will be confirmed in their opinion, with much justice, that the 4T is over and has failed or never happened, while I will still proclaim that there is more ahead, even then!

[TheNomad]

(05-27-2018, 04:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-26-2018, 01:52 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-26-2018, 11:11 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: "I do agree, a First Turning must coincide with transformation of what caused the Crisis." This is not in accord with the theory, or with past 1Ts. First Turnings are times of stasis, conformity, consolidation, consensus, recovery, status quo, capital and infrastructure development, spirit death. First Turnings are not times of transformation. Those are in social moment turnings, the 4th and 2nd. In a 4th turning, a crisis leads to a transformation. We've had the crisis, but not the transformation yet. It won't happen unless it happens in the next 10 years, which will be the second half of a fourth turning. If we don't, then the cycle has ended, and the USA is in steep decline.

Agreed, all.  The Millennial mindset is stasis and conformity - almost to the extreme.  You mention also tho, 1st T are also a time of institutional transformation.  I can see that beginning very soon.  How long (consider it) how long would it have to take for the millennial to be primed for some war, fight it, swaths of the generation die and THEN return to enter public life with the mission of transforming institutions?  That would be longer than a decade for it to be feasible. 

You say the "second half of the 4T" which mean millennials will be in an age bracket to be mid 30s to mid 50s and that doesn't really fit with comparison to WWII scenario.  They were out and spawning in the suburbs by the 1950s.  And even by then, the "outer" transformation that addresses weak public institutions, etc was already really in full swing.

The ages of the archetypes do not really fit, and length of turnings do not really fit.  The only way to make them fit is to expand the cycle to possibly unreasonable lengths.

And you finish with "if we don't, America is in decline".  So, it is either this super expanded time period OR America will die.

We don't have our time scenarios quite right here. The 4T is the time of institutional transformation, is what I say. I wouldn't say the millennial mindset is stasis and conformity; that's the first turning mindset. It takes at least three generations living at any one time to create a mood or mindset. The first turning is a spell of relief, recovery, conformity, consensus, stasis, materialism and ongoing building after a major transformation that usually involved both an economic and military crisis.

The second half of the 4T means from now until 2028-29. So right now, as the second half of the 4T begins, millennials are in youth, 36 years old down to 16. By the time it ends they will be 10 years older, 46 down to 26; so civic millennials will be entering middle age in the 1T, which is why it's a 1T, along with Gen Z artists entering youth, Alpha prophets entering childhood, Xer nomads entering elderhood, and Boomer prophets slowly going out to pasture.

This is all exactly according to the schedule, as described by Mr. Howe.

I wish I could respond to all comments in a a post but  

You said: We don't have our time scenarios quite right here. The 4T is the time of institutional transformation, is what I say. I wouldn't say the millennial mindset is stasis and conformity; that's the first turning mindset. It takes at least three generations living at any one time to create a mood or mindset. The first turning is a spell of relief, recovery, conformity, consensus, stasis, materialism and ongoing building after a major transformation that usually involved both an economic and military crisis.

Yeah, I never said we exist currently in a High.  I am FORECASTING.  I see the seeds of what a High is and I'm looking at the seeds which may not be offering total fruition but are been seen in younger people up-and-coming and evaluating the brackets based on that.

[TheNomad]

(05-27-2018, 04:13 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-27-2018, 05:05 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(05-26-2018, 11:21 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One thing to point out though, is that the kids have vowed to continue to be active. We'll see if they do this, but if so, they will be joined by a continual stream of new activists that has happened after almost every mass shooting. Mass shootings will continue and get worse until the politics of guns shifts, whether by the Parkland kids, Everytown for Gun Responsibility, Gabby Giffords' organization, or the next groups that form, and all of them together.

Very possibly this will happen (I hope so).  But it hasn't happened yet. So they cannot "count" as evidence of a 4T movement until they actually achieve something, which means more time is needed for the last decade or two to bear more than a superficial resemblance to a 4T.

I agree. It may take more time than we want or expect. I suspect that Trump may even win re-election, perish the thought. The Democrats may not nominate Landrieu or McAuliffe, in which case they are likely to lose. Bernie would be a crapshoot I could not predict. It might take until 2022 before a progressive sunami wipes out the GOP (in the typical 6th year beating administered to the party in the White House, but even more so), and turns Drump into a virtual puppet or dumps him and Pence out of office. Then that leaves 4 years of full progressive leadership after 2024 (plus the prior 2 years of progressive congressional power) in which the country could change beyond recognition. Or, things may shift sooner. But if not, after 2020 I know that folks like you and David Kaiser and The Nomad here will be confirmed in their opinion, with much justice, that the 4T is over and has failed or never happened, while I will still proclaim that there is more ahead, even then!

You said: I suspect that Trump may even win re-election, perish the thought.

My thoughts have been a hopeful showing of the ideology that will cause a 1st Turning, but I do not believe it will be a huge wave in 3018, just a showing.  I even entertain rump may become re-elected, but I still adhere to him as an aberration with no mandate to bring about further 4Th Turning mayhem.  It may be a steward of the final stages of Crisis, I only believe that with every year and even month that passes, more of the Hero and Artist will reach voting age and adult stature and the sludge getting progressively pushed.  I cannot in any way see ryan (who is their best bet yet is retiring) or MITT ROMNEY(?) (not so much)... that side has nothing more to offer.  They're running out of time fast and ALL they can do is reluctantly push more rump, and the general consensus on that is "NO MORE".  It cannot last that much longer.  I can't think of a necon below geriatric age and voters are no longer accepting senators or house people having a 75th birthday or 90th.  They're even kicking our pelosi and feinstein (fossils on the left side).

[pbrower2a]

The 1T begins when the winners consolidate their position in the world for the rest of their lives, and establish that people go along or become losers. This might be a low time for Humanity should the Crisis wreck the world. As shown in Franco's Spain, Mainland China, and most countries of central and Balkan Europe, it can be a time of crushing repression on behalf of those who achieve power.

It is a High if most things go well. The heroic Civic generation (Republicans after the American Revolution, the Gilded --sort of -- at least in the North they took over the Civic/Hero role, and GI Generation after WWII) establish the cultural and institutional norms for all. Confident (perhaps excessively so) after their great triumph, they show a love for doing things on a big scale. They are bland.

Shortages vanish, and people feel prosperous again. Children get a new birth of indulgent child-raising, nothing hardscrabble like that that the living Civic/Hero generation knew. (Think about it -- childhood for most GI kids was terribly deprived by current standards. GI adults made America much of what it is now even if they are no longer participants in making it what it is. That's a High.

A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization.

[TheNomad]

(05-27-2018, 09:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The 1T begins when the winners consolidate their position in the world for the rest of their lives, and establish that people go along or become losers. This might be a low time for Humanity should the Crisis wreck the world. As shown in Franco's Spain, Mainland China, and most countries of central and Balkan Europe, it can be a time of crushing repression on behalf of those who achieve power.

It is a High if most things go well. The heroic Civic generation (Republicans after the American Revolution, the Gilded --sort of -- at least in the North they took over the Civic/Hero role, and GI Generation after WWII) establish the cultural and institutional norms for all. Confident (perhaps excessively so) after their great triumph, they show a love for doing things on a big scale. They are bland.

Shortages vanish, and people feel prosperous again. Children get a new birth of indulgent child-raising, nothing hardscrabble like that that the living Civic/Hero generation knew. (Think about it -- childhood for most GI kids was terribly deprived by current standards. GI adults made America much of what it is now even if they are no longer participants in making it what it is. That's a High.

A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization.

You said: A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization. 

Boy am I aware of that.  And as a Nomad who comes from a complete disdain for rigid conformity, I am ready for some.  The times of wild rockers and rappers and a generation that looks like shit, fraks everyone and pierces everything, covers their body in ink, losers (lol) who smash xanax to snort it because they are bored.............. I'm ready for Donna Reed and even The Brady Bunch.  It's a small price to pay for a generation of SUCK music and mass conformity.  Speaking of music that sucks, I would swear that has already been for a long as I can recall.  People who don't seek out the exotic have been getting the shaft in almost all respects of mass media.

[pbrower2a]

(05-27-2018, 08:54 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-27-2018, 04:13 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-27-2018, 05:05 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(05-26-2018, 11:21 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: One thing to point out though, is that the kids have vowed to continue to be active. We'll see if they do this, but if so, they will be joined by a continual stream of new activists that has happened after almost every mass shooting. Mass shootings will continue and get worse until the politics of guns shifts, whether by the Parkland kids, Everytown for Gun Responsibility, Gabby Giffords' organization, or the next groups that form, and all of them together.

Very possibly this will happen (I hope so).  But it hasn't happened yet. So they cannot "count" as evidence of a 4T movement until they actually achieve something, which means more time is needed for the last decade or two to bear more than a superficial resemblance to a 4T.

... It may take more time than we want or expect. I suspect that Trump may even win re-election, perish the thought. The Democrats may not nominate Landrieu or McAuliffe, in which case they are likely to lose. Bernie would be a crapshoot I could not predict. It might take until 2022 before a progressive sunami wipes out the GOP (in the typical 6th year beating administered to the party in the White House, but even more so), and turns Drump into a virtual puppet or dumps him and Pence out of office. Then that leaves 4 years of full progressive leadership after 2024 (plus the prior 2 years of progressive congressional power) in which the country could change beyond recognition. Or, things may shift sooner. But if not, after 2020 I know that folks like you and David Kaiser and The Nomad here will be confirmed in their opinion, with much justice, that the 4T is over and has failed or never happened, while I will still proclaim that there is more ahead, even then!

You said: I suspect that Trump may even win re-election, perish the thought.

My thoughts have been a hopeful showing of the ideology that will cause a 1st Turning, but I do not believe it will be a huge wave in 3018, just a showing.  I even entertain rump may become re-elected, but I still adhere to him as an aberration with no mandate to bring about further 4Th Turning mayhem.  It may be a steward of the final stages of Crisis, I only believe that with every year and even month that passes, more of the Hero and Artist will reach voting age and adult stature and the sludge getting progressively pushed.  I cannot in any way see ryan (who is their best bet yet is retiring) or MITT ROMNEY(?) (not so much)... that side has nothing more to offer.  They're running out of time fast and ALL they can do is reluctantly push more rump, and the general consensus on that is "NO MORE".  It cannot last that much longer.  I can't think of a necon below geriatric age and voters are no longer accepting senators or house people having a 75th birthday or 90th.  They're even kicking our pelosi and feinstein (fossils on the left side).

We all have our ideas of who we want to win. Don't ignore that some Americans want a "Christian and Corporate State", one in which people earn some theological reward for enduring severe and otherwise pointless hardships that give them a sure passage to "pie in the sky when you die". The oppressors get more toil cheaply from people who have no choice, and higher profit margins that arise not only from exploitation of workers as producers, but also from monopoly in the marketplace due to tight control of consumer needs.

The Millennial generation already shows that it will have none of this. It recognizes that it is getting burned with privatization schemes, with heavy reliance upon personal debt for what used to be free or inexpensive (as a Boomer I remember when a first-rate education was less expensive than a hobby), and with low glass ceilings in bureaucratic organizations. As is true of other Civic generations it is much more rational and secular than older generations other than perhaps the one Civic/Hero generation generation that it might know as old people before it got fully mature. Of course, as the French Revolution shows, pure reason is not enough to make a workable society... but there is enough fluff to cast off.

It rejects the gun cult that holds that profits for a slimy industry are more precious than the lives of its victims. Good. Even if it isn't profoundly religious, it is moral enough to recognize the difference between Barack Obama and Donald Trump other than origin, party label, and pigmentation. It is willing to accept the collective over the ethos of every-man-for-himself in a race to the bottom. Above all, it has no use for homophobia or abuse of spouses and children; racism and religious bigotry; cronyism and corruption; or despotic government. It believes that the world can be better through technology which negates any alleged need for non-meritocratic hierarchy and class privilege.

But don't forget -- there are still powerful people who see the social optimism as their profit, power, and privilege; and that no human suffering is in excess when it churns or enforces a profit, as for wars for profit (the neocon game). There are people who believe this in the name of their sadistic view of God Who demands masochistic obedience from the masses who are to be the peons and cannon fodder.

[pbrower2a]

(05-28-2018, 12:13 AM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-27-2018, 09:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The 1T begins when the winners consolidate their position in the world for the rest of their lives, and establish that people go along or become losers. This might be a low time for Humanity should the Crisis wreck the world. As shown in Franco's Spain, Mainland China, and most countries of central and Balkan Europe, it can be a time of crushing repression on behalf of those who achieve power.

It is a High if most things go well. The heroic Civic generation (Republicans after the American Revolution, the Gilded --sort of -- at least in the North they took over the Civic/Hero role, and GI Generation after WWII) establish the cultural and institutional norms for all. Confident (perhaps excessively so) after their great triumph, they show a love for doing things on a big scale. They are bland.

Shortages vanish, and people feel prosperous again. Children get a new birth of indulgent child-raising, nothing hardscrabble like that that the living Civic/Hero generation knew. (Think about it -- childhood for most GI kids was terribly deprived by current standards. GI adults made America much of what it is now even if they are no longer participants in making it what it is. That's a High.

A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization.

You said: A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization. 

Boy am I aware of that.  And as a Nomad who comes from a complete disdain for rigid conformity, I am ready for some.  The times of wild rockers and rappers and a generation that looks like shit, fraks everyone and pierces everything, covers their body in ink, losers (lol) who smash xanax to snort it because they are bored.............. I'm ready for Donna Reed and even The Brady Bunch.  It's a small price to pay for a generation of SUCK music and mass conformity.  Speaking of music that sucks, I would swear that has already been for a long as I can recall.  People who don't seek out the exotic have been getting the shaft in almost all respects of mass media.

The GIs liked their culture insipid, with bland crooners and the infamously-insipid "elevator music" that one heard on FM radio stations with the letters "EZ" in their call letters. That music took show tunes, TV themes, and rock top hits and gave them gimmicky orchestrations -- but apparently no violas in the string sections. It got very boring very fast if one knew anything about music.

This is to be expected of people for whom education was more technical and vocational in objective. Once they succeed, they will want better for their kids who will get to know more leisure. STEM education will give way to a broader base of learning, one that puts more emphasis on culture (including art, music, and literature). Maybe the next Boom-like Idealist generation will get more exposure to humanizing influences. The idea may be that smart kids who listen to Bach, read Dickens, and get field trips to see Degas paintings will be less amenable to extremist ideologies.

I have yet to hear great music that goes along with Crisis eras. Haydn and Mozart in their day were about as wildly popular as Big Band
music around 1940, and for much the same reason: they were really, really good and succeeded at every esthetic level. Today we rely more upon movies for entertainment, but those are getting better. Sure, Disney's Pixar Studios produces 'mere' cartoons -- but they are good enough that the whole family can see them irrespective of the level of intellectual sophistication. Disney also got a hold on Marvel Studios, which has been producing movies of a genre that I long held in disdain -- movies rich in special effects. But with good writing and story lines, my complaints about the lack of good writing and story lines  -- or cardboard acting -- become irrelevant. Good example: I got to see Black Panther. which actually shows a largely-black cast in dignified roles of universal appeal. Don't get me wrong: there are and have been excellent African and African-American actors; the best movies involving predominantly-black casts have either been specifically about an exclusively-black world that is one of victimization that should never have happened, or about a world to which non-blacks cannot easily relate. In many cases the writing has been undignified and exploitative. so what might otherwise be good acting goes to waste.

Yes, writing matters greatly, which explains why 1939 was the "Miracle Year" for American cinema, and surrounding years were also very good. We may be seeing much the same now; if that analogy holds we may be approaching the final stage of the current Crisis Era.  Of course the difference between this Crisis and the last one is between FDR and Trump.  

[Eric the Green]

(05-28-2018, 12:13 AM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-27-2018, 09:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The 1T begins when the winners consolidate their position in the world for the rest of their lives, and establish that people go along or become losers. This might be a low time for Humanity should the Crisis wreck the world. As shown in Franco's Spain, Mainland China, and most countries of central and Balkan Europe, it can be a time of crushing repression on behalf of those who achieve power.

It is a High if most things go well. The heroic Civic generation (Republicans after the American Revolution, the Gilded --sort of -- at least in the North they took over the Civic/Hero role, and GI Generation after WWII) establish the cultural and institutional norms for all. Confident (perhaps excessively so) after their great triumph, they show a love for doing things on a big scale. They are bland.

Shortages vanish, and people feel prosperous again. Children get a new birth of indulgent child-raising, nothing hardscrabble like that that the living Civic/Hero generation knew. (Think about it -- childhood for most GI kids was terribly deprived by current standards. GI adults made America much of what it is now even if they are no longer participants in making it what it is. That's a High.

A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization.

You said: A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization. 

Boy am I aware of that.  And as a Nomad who comes from a complete disdain for rigid conformity, I am ready for some.  The times of wild rockers and rappers and a generation that looks like shit, fraks everyone and pierces everything, covers their body in ink, losers (lol) who smash xanax to snort it because they are bored.............. I'm ready for Donna Reed and even The Brady Bunch.  It's a small price to pay for a generation of SUCK music and mass conformity.  Speaking of music that sucks, I would swear that has already been for a long as I can recall.  People who don't seek out the exotic have been getting the shaft in almost all respects of mass media.

I get raked over the coals for saying all that. I agree.

[TheNomad]

(05-28-2018, 07:54 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-28-2018, 12:13 AM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-27-2018, 09:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The 1T begins when the winners consolidate their position in the world for the rest of their lives, and establish that people go along or become losers. This might be a low time for Humanity should the Crisis wreck the world. As shown in Franco's Spain, Mainland China, and most countries of central and Balkan Europe, it can be a time of crushing repression on behalf of those who achieve power.

It is a High if most things go well. The heroic Civic generation (Republicans after the American Revolution, the Gilded --sort of -- at least in the North they took over the Civic/Hero role, and GI Generation after WWII) establish the cultural and institutional norms for all. Confident (perhaps excessively so) after their great triumph, they show a love for doing things on a big scale. They are bland.

Shortages vanish, and people feel prosperous again. Children get a new birth of indulgent child-raising, nothing hardscrabble like that that the living Civic/Hero generation knew. (Think about it -- childhood for most GI kids was terribly deprived by current standards. GI adults made America much of what it is now even if they are no longer participants in making it what it is. That's a High.

A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization.

You said: A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization. 

Boy am I aware of that.  And as a Nomad who comes from a complete disdain for rigid conformity, I am ready for some.  The times of wild rockers and rappers and a generation that looks like shit, fraks everyone and pierces everything, covers their body in ink, losers (lol) who smash xanax to snort it because they are bored.............. I'm ready for Donna Reed and even The Brady Bunch.  It's a small price to pay for a generation of SUCK music and mass conformity.  Speaking of music that sucks, I would swear that has already been for a long as I can recall.  People who don't seek out the exotic have been getting the shaft in almost all respects of mass media.

I get raked over the coals for saying all that. I agree.

I feel like this  is appropriate for the quest for a new Turning.  A little about my motivations?  I knew some folks directly affected by the crash into the towers in NY, I had two friends that died in the post-911 wars.  A relative of mine is from Algeria who was studying in France to be an engineer.  He's not muslim, but his skin is dark enough and his "origin nation" was enough to get him detained somewhere in Europe while trying to re-enter the U.S. for a wedding (even though he's an American citizen with a passport).  His whereabouts were unknown for an unreasonable amount of time.  His wife was terrified.

I already told a little bit of the story how on 911 I drove to work and within 10 minutes, the entire building was emptied... no one knew why... we were the biggest radio conglomerate in America at the time... there is ALREADY a huge remote broadcast in the parking lot with flags all over the building the size I'd never seen before.  Flags everywhere.  Red White and Blue balloons.  All within perhaps 45 minutes after the second plane.  Without instruction, the remote begins playing the Star Spangled Banner.  Well before the idea of "taking a knee" if felt like you may get pummeled if you don't stand there like a gold ole American with your hand on your heart.  BTW: on the way to my work, there were snipers on top of the federal buildings near mine, TANKS guarding the entrance.

It was OK to discriminate.  It was GOOD to hate.  A video got sent around the company of people throwing Qurans into a bonfire.  Women with hijabs were taunted, AURAS were persecuted.  And many, many Millennials went to war for it.  First in Afghanistan, then in Iraq.  Nomads were there too but no one cares about them.  Millennials were 18 in Y2K and their beginning bracket fought for a good 8-10 years in that.

In 2000, I flew up to San Luis Obispo municipal to see some friends.  I was given as a gift of 2 large 4ft hand-carved sconces from Italy as a gift.  I simply carried them onto the plane with me.  In 2001 I was forced to take off my FLIP FLOPS while passing through the checkpoint lasting about 3 hours.  Dissent became illegal in America.  Speech and protestation was censored to the extreme.  American citizens living communally with islamic affiliations were hunted by the government as potential future suspects. 

The next few years were not sad bad.  I'm not someone, luckily, who looks like a "suspect", I don't follow prayer call, and I really don't give a shit about radical political affiliations.  Then I bought property in 2006.  4 years later I was about to lose it, declared bankruptcy, lost my job, and saw friend after friend moving away from a place they had lived most of their life or most of their adult life.  I could go into great detail about probably 5 different people but it's all kind of the same.  They owned property - rentals even.  They may not have been wealthy but they were living comfortably and working hard for it. 

I must tell the biggest story because it means something to me.  A family who lived near the ocean, they loved it, they were the kind of people who went to the tide pools every weekend.  They formed a business that was the first of its kind of their state.  A unique business.  They were able to buy more property in a coastal tourist town and a STORE in the little tourist town.  They were the kind of people we saw so much of, where a family owns a farm or large plot of land for GENERATIONS and suddenly, they are accepting minimum wage to clear out their generations-full of "junk" the banks wants removed before they can clean it up and sell it.  My friends were those kind of people.  They bank told them they needed to get out and eventually they listened out of fear.  For me, luckily I was able to hold out and not lose the little I had acquired in terms of property. They were not the kind of people to hire lawyers or put up fights.  They lost their first home and moved to the second.  The bank came for that one too.  Through all this, they were going to the landfill getting rid of everything they could in order to move elsewhere to SURVIVE.  They moved yet again property where they might re-kindle their business and survive there.  No such luck.  They moved into ANOTHER property they owned through a relative.  It ended badly also.

Mind you, these were aging boomers with a HOST of medical ailments.  One of them suffering from heart disease, bad kidneys and a history of stroke.  NO HEALTHCARE during this time.  One of the others was an 80yo grandmother suffering from all kinds of things I  don't even know about and could barely walk.  A niece who happened to be a nurse flew out to ride with them in their 15yo mini-van and all the belongings they had in a small U-Haul (these are the people who gave me Italian Sconces!) so she could provide medical care by means of available drugs and an oxygen tank.  These particular people lived in homes with gaping marble fireplaces and Monet on the wall.

Steinbeck's GRAPES OF WRATH anyone?

They ended up taking a few small rooms inside a ramshackle farmhouse with distant relatives in Montana when none of them had even seen snow before.  In their elder age.  2 of them died there not long after.

I know people who lost their jobs and careers anywhere from 2008 to 2015 who never returned into the traditional workforce.  They make ends meet how they can.  But some of them have fallen from great heights.  From owning bungalo homes where the rent paid for the all their expenses to now they moved away to some god-awful place and now work as prison security and pay rent on a 1br apartment.  Relationships severed, divorce, children OF the divorce.

These are just some of the reasons I feel like many people simply do not see or are very lucky to have avoided such calamities.  These are also the same people who say "we haven't had the full Crisis yet".  What I described in such limited detail I have seen the Crisis. 

I just don't want any more of it.  I always said I would never sacrifice freedom for security.  It seems we all change as our archetype moves through the age brackets.  Right now, I am holding up my freedom asking for some of it to be taken so that institutions will stop frakking me at every turn.  The book has it right Nomads assume no one is in charge because no one is in charge.  I want someone to be in charge.

I want to go to stores where people actually know about the merchandise.  I want to go to a fast food restaurant where I don't have to check the bag to make sure what I ordered is in there.  I want to call a customer service representative who instead of reading a script actually knows how to help me.  I want the END of dystopia like handmaid's tale and westworld where things are SO bleak and full of peril I'm subconsciously affected when I try to sleep.

HOW did people rest watching the 3 networks with their B&W family shows where everything ended right, your neighbor was not a pedophile and the milk man was a good guy you enjoyed seeing every morning with a smile.  I bet they didn't need sleeping pills or heroin.  They slept just fine. 

PEOPLE WERE EXCLUDED BACK THEN!   Not everyone had a part of that American Dream.  More could now.  I'm sick of all the darkness and destruction.  It's beginning to permeate everything.  I'm usually ahead when it comes to trends, that is why when I speak to others who have nothing but complaints I try to offer that glimmer. 

Honestly, I said this because the study of the saeculum has offered me hope.  Things do happen in cycles.  We think it will keep going down into the abyss.  Some here have even said "possible end of America!".  I can't see it. Could be because I won't see it. But moreso because I've evaluated what I've seen over this past Crisis and Not just I hope it is on the way out but I actually think it is.

[TheNomad]

(05-28-2018, 07:48 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(05-28-2018, 12:13 AM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-27-2018, 09:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The 1T begins when the winners consolidate their position in the world for the rest of their lives, and establish that people go along or become losers. This might be a low time for Humanity should the Crisis wreck the world. As shown in Franco's Spain, Mainland China, and most countries of central and Balkan Europe, it can be a time of crushing repression on behalf of those who achieve power.

It is a High if most things go well. The heroic Civic generation (Republicans after the American Revolution, the Gilded --sort of -- at least in the North they took over the Civic/Hero role, and GI Generation after WWII) establish the cultural and institutional norms for all. Confident (perhaps excessively so) after their great triumph, they show a love for doing things on a big scale. They are bland.

Shortages vanish, and people feel prosperous again. Children get a new birth of indulgent child-raising, nothing hardscrabble like that that the living Civic/Hero generation knew. (Think about it -- childhood for most GI kids was terribly deprived by current standards. GI adults made America much of what it is now even if they are no longer participants in making it what it is. That's a High.

A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization.

You said: A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization. 

Boy am I aware of that.  And as a Nomad who comes from a complete disdain for rigid conformity, I am ready for some.  The times of wild rockers and rappers and a generation that looks like shit, fraks everyone and pierces everything, covers their body in ink, losers (lol) who smash xanax to snort it because they are bored.............. I'm ready for Donna Reed and even The Brady Bunch.  It's a small price to pay for a generation of SUCK music and mass conformity.  Speaking of music that sucks, I would swear that has already been for a long as I can recall.  People who don't seek out the exotic have been getting the shaft in almost all respects of mass media.

The GIs liked their culture insipid, with bland crooners and the infamously-insipid "elevator music" that one heard on FM radio stations with the letters "EZ" in their call letters. That music took show tunes, TV themes, and rock top hits and gave them gimmicky orchestrations -- but apparently no violas in the string sections. It got very boring very fast if one knew anything about music.

This is to be expected of people for whom education was more technical and vocational in objective. Once they succeed, they will want better for their kids who will get to know more leisure. STEM education will give way to a broader base of learning, one that puts more emphasis on culture (including art, music, and literature). Maybe the next Boom-like Idealist generation will get more exposure to humanizing influences. The idea may be that smart kids who listen to Bach, read Dickens, and get field trips to see Degas paintings will be less amenable to extremist ideologies.

I have yet to hear great music that goes along with Crisis eras. Haydn and Mozart in their day were about as wildly popular as Big Band
music around 1940, and for much the same reason: they were really, really good and succeeded at every esthetic level. Today we rely more upon movies for entertainment, but those are getting better. Sure, Disney's Pixar Studios produces 'mere' cartoons -- but they are good enough that the whole family can see them irrespective of the level of intellectual sophistication. Disney also got a hold on Marvel Studios, which has been producing movies of a genre that I long held in disdain -- movies rich in special effects. But with good writing and story lines, my complaints about the lack of good writing and story lines  -- or cardboard acting -- become irrelevant. Good example: I got to see Black Panther. which actually shows a largely-black cast in dignified roles of universal appeal. Don't get me wrong: there are and have been excellent African and African-American actors; the best movies involving predominantly-black casts have either been specifically about an exclusively-black world that is one of victimization that should never have happened, or about a world to which non-blacks cannot easily relate. In many cases the writing has been undignified and exploitative. so what might otherwise be good acting goes to waste.

Yes, writing matters greatly, which explains why 1939 was the "Miracle Year" for American cinema, and surrounding years were also very good. We may be seeing much the same now; if that analogy holds we may be approaching the final stage of the current Crisis Era.  Of course the difference between this Crisis and the last one is between FDR and Trump.     

You said: The GIs liked their culture insipid, with bland crooners and the infamously-insipid "elevator music" that one heard on FM radio stations with the letters "EZ" in their call letters. That music took show tunes, TV themes, and rock top hits and gave them gimmicky orchestrations -- but apparently no violas in the string sections. It got very boring very fast if one knew anything about music. 

You mostly focused on music.... I recalled a quote from S&H when jazz and r&b got "christened" by Ed Sullivan who was a "magistrate" of (I believe) Silent generation.  Maybe this wasn't from the book but elsewhere.  So, that was the beginning of the boomer culture of Beats and eventually Hippies. 

What's different with this archetype, we may not be seeing their musical taste yet come to fruition.  I can only make the observation as I have before the people of that age are clean cut as can be.  No ink, piercings, crazy hair.... and they all look the same.  The average age for Millennial first intercourse is 26.  Total lack of risk.  Total lack of non-conformity.  From what I can tell, their preferred music is not so much bland as it is innocuous.  Maybe that is the same thing.  What they listen to is not hard edge, nor angry, nor political uprising, and certainly not anything involving revolutionary themes.

These are not the people who are going to fight a war.  And they aren't ones who are going to protest over ideology.  At least, not once they assume political power.  Millennials as a mirror echo to Boomers are still held captive by Boomer culture such as music.  They really will not ever form their own outer culture.  Their station is to transform inner structure.  They aren't tripping and tuning in or dropping out.

[Eric the Green]

(05-29-2018, 05:16 AM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-28-2018, 07:48 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(05-28-2018, 12:13 AM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-27-2018, 09:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The 1T begins when the winners consolidate their position in the world for the rest of their lives, and establish that people go along or become losers. This might be a low time for Humanity should the Crisis wreck the world. As shown in Franco's Spain, Mainland China, and most countries of central and Balkan Europe, it can be a time of crushing repression on behalf of those who achieve power.

It is a High if most things go well. The heroic Civic generation (Republicans after the American Revolution, the Gilded --sort of -- at least in the North they took over the Civic/Hero role, and GI Generation after WWII) establish the cultural and institutional norms for all. Confident (perhaps excessively so) after their great triumph, they show a love for doing things on a big scale. They are bland.

Shortages vanish, and people feel prosperous again. Children get a new birth of indulgent child-raising, nothing hardscrabble like that that the living Civic/Hero generation knew. (Think about it -- childhood for most GI kids was terribly deprived by current standards. GI adults made America much of what it is now even if they are no longer participants in making it what it is. That's a High.

A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization.

You said: A 1T can also be a mind-numbing nightmare of rigid conformity and dehumanization. 

Boy am I aware of that.  And as a Nomad who comes from a complete disdain for rigid conformity, I am ready for some.  The times of wild rockers and rappers and a generation that looks like shit, fraks everyone and pierces everything, covers their body in ink, losers (lol) who smash xanax to snort it because they are bored.............. I'm ready for Donna Reed and even The Brady Bunch.  It's a small price to pay for a generation of SUCK music and mass conformity.  Speaking of music that sucks, I would swear that has already been for a long as I can recall.  People who don't seek out the exotic have been getting the shaft in almost all respects of mass media.

The GIs liked their culture insipid, with bland crooners and the infamously-insipid "elevator music" that one heard on FM radio stations with the letters "EZ" in their call letters. That music took show tunes, TV themes, and rock top hits and gave them gimmicky orchestrations -- but apparently no violas in the string sections. It got very boring very fast if one knew anything about music.

This is to be expected of people for whom education was more technical and vocational in objective. Once they succeed, they will want better for their kids who will get to know more leisure. STEM education will give way to a broader base of learning, one that puts more emphasis on culture (including art, music, and literature). Maybe the next Boom-like Idealist generation will get more exposure to humanizing influences. The idea may be that smart kids who listen to Bach, read Dickens, and get field trips to see Degas paintings will be less amenable to extremist ideologies.

I have yet to hear great music that goes along with Crisis eras. Haydn and Mozart in their day were about as wildly popular as Big Band
music around 1940, and for much the same reason: they were really, really good and succeeded at every esthetic level. Today we rely more upon movies for entertainment, but those are getting better. Sure, Disney's Pixar Studios produces 'mere' cartoons -- but they are good enough that the whole family can see them irrespective of the level of intellectual sophistication. Disney also got a hold on Marvel Studios, which has been producing movies of a genre that I long held in disdain -- movies rich in special effects. But with good writing and story lines, my complaints about the lack of good writing and story lines  -- or cardboard acting -- become irrelevant. Good example: I got to see Black Panther. which actually shows a largely-black cast in dignified roles of universal appeal. Don't get me wrong: there are and have been excellent African and African-American actors; the best movies involving predominantly-black casts have either been specifically about an exclusively-black world that is one of victimization that should never have happened, or about a world to which non-blacks cannot easily relate. In many cases the writing has been undignified and exploitative. so what might otherwise be good acting goes to waste.

Yes, writing matters greatly, which explains why 1939 was the "Miracle Year" for American cinema, and surrounding years were also very good. We may be seeing much the same now; if that analogy holds we may be approaching the final stage of the current Crisis Era.  Of course the difference between this Crisis and the last one is between FDR and Trump.     

You said: The GIs liked their culture insipid, with bland crooners and the infamously-insipid "elevator music" that one heard on FM radio stations with the letters "EZ" in their call letters. That music took show tunes, TV themes, and rock top hits and gave them gimmicky orchestrations -- but apparently no violas in the string sections. It got very boring very fast if one knew anything about music. 

You mostly focused on music.... I recalled a quote from S&H when jazz and r&b got "christened" by Ed Sullivan who was a "magistrate" of (I believe) Silent generation.  Maybe this wasn't from the book but elsewhere.  So, that was the beginning of the boomer culture of Beats and eventually Hippies. 

What's different with this archetype, we may not be seeing their musical taste yet come to fruition.  I can only make the observation as I have before the people of that age are clean cut as can be.  No ink, piercings, crazy hair.... and they all look the same.  The average age for Millennial first intercourse is 26.  Total lack of risk.  Total lack of non-conformity.  From what I can tell, their preferred music is not so much bland as it is innocuous.  Maybe that is the same thing.  What they listen to is not hard edge, nor angry, nor political uprising, and certainly not anything involving revolutionary themes.

These are not the people who are going to fight a war.  And they aren't ones who are going to protest over ideology.  At least, not once they assume political power.  Millennials as a mirror echo to Boomers are still held captive by Boomer culture such as music.  They really will not ever form their own outer culture.  Their station is to transform inner structure.  They aren't tripping and tuning in or dropping out.

It could be that this varies by location. CA millennials are not so conformist as that. The older Millennials I know pretty much imitated the ways of their older Gen X brothers and sisters for a while; in youth children tend to do that. They just tamped down the Xer styles a bit and normalized them. Certainly millennial era pop music has been more innocuous and upbeat, much like that of the GIs "Greatest Generation." I felt that Justin Bieber's "Baby" was a smooth groove similar to "In The Mood" by Glenn Miller. "Happy" echoes "Get Happy." More will come from the Millennials, as you say. And although some Millennials echo Boomer music, as when Bieber's "Baby" also contained the same lyric line from the Silent/Boomer era Motown sound's similar paragon of smooth-groove, "Baby Love," (and Motown sound musicians had been big band members), the you tube views suggest Millennials are focused on their own music, and they still are influenced by some Xer styles like rap music as well, and Bieber imitated Michael Jackson and Boyz to Men.

In the Mood https://youtu.be/c2aqHGaSxRI

Baby Love https://youtu.be/mQvIbkFaq18

Baby https://youtu.be/kffacxfA7G4

Notice at the end of "Baby" Justin makes the victory/peace symbol, to a Beatles-like "yeah yeah yeah"

[Ragnarök_62]

(05-29-2018, 10:22 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-29-2018, 05:16 AM)TheNomad Wrote: You said: The GIs liked their culture insipid, with bland crooners and the infamously-insipid "elevator music" that one heard on FM radio stations with the letters "EZ" in their call letters. That music took show tunes, TV themes, and rock top hits and gave them gimmicky orchestrations -- but apparently no violas in the string sections. It got very boring very fast if one knew anything about music. 

You mostly focused on music.... I recalled a quote from S&H when jazz and r&b got "christened" by Ed Sullivan who was a "magistrate" of (I believe) Silent generation.  Maybe this wasn't from the book but elsewhere.  So, that was the beginning of the boomer culture of Beats and eventually Hippies. 

What's different with this archetype, we may not be seeing their musical taste yet come to fruition.  I can only make the observation as I have before the people of that age are clean cut as can be.  No ink, piercings, crazy hair.... and they all look the same.  The average age for Millennial first intercourse is 26.  Total lack of risk.  Total lack of non-conformity.  From what I can tell, their preferred music is not so much bland as it is innocuous.  Maybe that is the same thing.  What they listen to is not hard edge, nor angry, nor political uprising, and certainly not anything involving revolutionary themes.

These are not the people who are going to fight a war.  And they aren't ones who are going to protest over ideology.  At least, not once they assume political power.  Millennials as a mirror echo to Boomers are still held captive by Boomer culture such as music.  They really will not ever form their own outer culture.  Their station is to transform inner structure.  They aren't tripping and tuning in or dropping out.

It could be that this varies by location. CA millennials are not so conformist as that. The older Millennials I know pretty much imitated the ways of their older Gen X brothers and sisters for a while; in youth children tend to do that. They just tamped down the Xer styles a bit and normalized them. Certainly millennial era pop music has been more innocuous and upbeat, much like that of the GIs "Greatest Generation." I felt that Justin Bieber's "Baby" was a smooth groove similar to "In The Mood" by Glenn Miller. "Happy" echoes "Get Happy." More will come from the Millennials, as you say. And although some Millennials echo Boomer music, as when Bieber's "Baby" also contained the same lyric line from the Silent/Boomer era Motown sound's similar paragon of smooth-groove, "Baby Love," (and Motown sound musicians had been big band members), the you tube views suggest Millennials are focused on their own music, and they still are influenced by some Xer styles like rap music as well, and Bieber imitated Michael Jackson and Boyz to Men.

In the Mood https://youtu.be/c2aqHGaSxRI

Baby Love https://youtu.be/mQvIbkFaq18

Baby https://youtu.be/kffacxfA7G4

Notice at the end of "Baby" Justin makes the victory/peace symbol, to a Beatles-like "yeah yeah yeah"

Uh no.   Millies are just the next renditions of squares.