Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Eric the Green]

This NY Times article lays out the current House situation well. As of now though, Paul Ryan's seat seems to be leaning Democratic. The Democrats have two sharp candidates, and so far no-one except a white nationalist to replace Ryan. That could change, but for now, that seat is definitely in play. And more Republicans might follow Ryan to the exits, and incumbents are always more likely to win. Still, this article suggests that a victory for Democrats in 2018 will not be easy. But they may be overestimating the safety of some of these Republican seats, if they put Ryan's as "solid." I don't think it was ever that. Ryan quit partly because his re-election was getting dicey.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018...wQodIckJ9Q

[pbrower2a]

three national polls

NBC/WSJ poll:

Approve - 39%(-4)
Disapprove- 57%(+4)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-r...d_20180415

ABC/Washington Post:

Approve - 40%(+4)
Disapprove - 56%(-2)

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/econ...ssion=true

Gallup:

Approve - 39%(-2)
Disapprove - 55%(+1)


http://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump...edium=copy

Never very far from 40% in any poll except Rasmussen.

[pbrower2a]

Huger supply of data on issues such as whether certain countries are allies or enemies or in between (Syria, Iran, and North Korea are on the execration list for most Americans, and Russia is not far behind on that).

(YouGov/the Economist)


Americans are split 42-41 on missile attacks on Syria, so Americans aren't exactly coming to support the President on this. 

53% of Americans are somewhat or very concerned about possible collusion between the Russian government and Donald Trump; 34% are 'not very concerned' or 'not concerned at all', with 13% undecided.

Scooter Libby, whom President Trump intends to pardon, isn't well enough known (basically he is largely forgotten) for even a half of Americans to decide whether they look upon him favorably or unfavorably. It's been a while. But only 22% think that he should get a pardon, and 40% disapprove.

Trump approval is at 38% and disapproval is at 53%.

[pbrower2a]

Two states: Indiana and Texas. Indiana is usually rock-solid Republican in Presidential elections, so much that Republicans do not win the Presidency except when winning the state by 10% or more. Trump won it 56-37 and still lost the national popular vote (but he won the 'right votes' elsewhere, so he is President). But he is underwater in polling support in Indian. He might win the state -- barely -- in 2020. He might also lose it.


Source



TEXAS

from Quinnipiac, which has never polled Texas before.

Quote:Texas voters disapprove 52 - 43 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans approve 85 - 13 percent. Disapproval is 90 - 8 percent among Democrats and 64 - 28 percent among independent voters.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2536

Ted Cruz is barely ahead of O'Rourke. Texas could reflect change in political culture unique to Texas, but (1) Trump support in Texas has been consistently shaky so far, and (2) see also Arizona, Florida, and Georgia, all of which have some similarities. Texas contains the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat, which is not a partisan statement.

Sure, Texas is a tricky state to poll -- but Trump can't be that far underwater in the Lone Star State in a poll without being underwater.

Addendum: one pollster shows a 45-45 split on Trump in Kentucky.



Approval:




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 36
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.

[pbrower2a]

This set of maps suggests how far the unpopularity of the President causes a likely deviation from a 50-50 split in the popular vote:

These maps revive the topic of whether President Trump is doing better or worse than is necessary for winning a 50-50 split of the popular vote. To refresh on the guidelines for deciding what is a 50-50 vote nationwide based upon the recent voting in the various states and DC:   


Cook PVI ratings:

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more



Cook PVI assumes a 50-50 Presidential election, reasonable since 2000 because except for the 2008 Presidential election all such exception, those five all were basically even for almost the entire electoral season. One can use polling to predict whether the next Presidential election will be a 50-50 proposition, and if not, how far the likely reality diverges from that assumption.

Based on 2012 and 2016 Cook PVI shows that the average Republican nominee will carry Alabama 59-41 and Florida 52-48; that the nominees will tie in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania; and that the Democratic nominee will win Michigan by 51-49 and New York 62-38. Of course, even in a 50-50 election, cultural affinities and the emphases will matter greatly. So could demographic trends. We will talk about that for Arizona and Texas.   

For DC (not measured) and Congressional districts that vote independently of states, I have common sense for Dee Cee and the congressional votes for those districts.

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

After seeing Trump behind 47-48 in Indiana and 43- 52 in Texas, and at a 45-45 tie in Kentucky, states that Republicans have usually won easily since 2000, I get  to assess states as 100-disapproval as a ceiling for a Trump vote in 2020. Those three states have 55 electoral votes between them that the Republican nominee dare not lose. That is two more than California.  



100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  


Now, for the variance between  100-DIS from recent polling and Cook PVI.   

Variation from PVI (polls from October 2017 and later):



Orange implies that President Trump projects to do better than Cook PVI based on 100-DIS. So the President is doing 2% better in California in accordance with 100-DIS than Cook PVI suggests. President Trump projects to do 1% better than the typical Republican nominee in Vermont.

That's the end of the good news for his prospects of re-election, and that good news isn't very relevant. This projection suggests that overall the President will NOT approach 50% of the vote in 2020.

[pbrower2a]

Trump Viewed Less Negatively on Issues, but Most Americans Are Critical of His Conduct

Majority expresses confidence in Trump on economic policy

A majority of Americans find little or no common ground with Donald Trump on issues, but the share who say they agree with him on many or all issues has risen since last August. The public’s assessment of Trump’s conduct as president is little changed over the past nine months, with 54% saying they don’t like the way he conducts himself as president.

Currently, 41% of the public agrees with Trump on “all or nearly all” or many of the issues facing the country, while 57% agree with him on just a few issues or virtually none. In August, just 33% said they agreed with Trump on many or all issues.

Public views of Trump’s issue positions improve; critiques of conduct remain

The latest national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted April 25-May 1 among 1,503 adults, finds that 80% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now say they agree with Trump on many or all issues, up from 69% in August. And while just 12% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say the same today, the share of Democrats who say there are “no or almost no” issues where they align with Trump has dropped from 77% to 58%.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/05/03/t...s-conduct/

Different language of criticism and support, but highly relevant for asking a slightly-different question.

[Eric the Green]

(05-05-2018, 09:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Trump Viewed Less Negatively on Issues, but Most Americans Are Critical of His Conduct

Majority expresses confidence in Trump on economic policy

A majority of Americans find little or no common ground with Donald Trump on issues, but the share who say they agree with him on many or all issues has risen since last August. The public’s assessment of Trump’s conduct as president is little changed over the past nine months, with 54% saying they don’t like the way he conducts himself as president.

Currently, 41% of the public agrees with Trump on “all or nearly all” or many of the issues facing the country, while 57% agree with him on just a few issues or virtually none. In August, just 33% said they agreed with Trump on many or all issues.

Public views of Trump’s issue positions improve; critiques of conduct remain

The latest national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted April 25-May 1 among 1,503 adults, finds that 80% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now say they agree with Trump on many or all issues, up from 69% in August. And while just 12% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say the same today, the share of Democrats who say there are “no or almost no” issues where they align with Trump has dropped from 77% to 58%.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/05/03/t...s-conduct/

Different language of criticism and support, but highly relevant for asking a slightly-different question.

No doubt this would happen. Meanwhile, wages have not risen much, and the unemployment number is deceiving as even more folks have stopped looking for work or have dropped out of the work force. Even David Brooks is confused, saying that the tax cuts are working because the corporate tax cuts are being invested in capital. But that has not trickled down yet to the people.

It may be that corporate tax cuts work better than personal ones for capital investment. But most people are seeing little benefit. Those who agree with Trump more now still swallow what the media says though. Trump may also benefit from his fire and fury directed against King Kim, which may have contributed to Kim's more conciliatory tone now. But it will come to little if Trump is as stubborn as he is promising to be. We'll see.

[pbrower2a]

I will give another nationwide map of the state polls when I see some interesting ones. Until then I will show another nationwide poll that shows some commentary:


WASHINGTON (CNN)President Donald Trump's approval rating is holding steady in a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, but his numbers on handling several key issues are climbing, as almost 6 in 10 say things in the country are going well.
Overall, 41% approve of the President's work, and 53% disapprove. Those numbers are about the same as at the end of March.

Related: Full poll results
On the issues, however, Trump's numbers are climbing. Approval is up 4 points on the economy to 52%, the first time it's topped 50% since March 2017; up 5 points on foreign trade to 43% approval; and his numbers on immigration have improved 4 points since February, with 40% now approving. On handling foreign affairs, Trump's approval rating tops 40% for the first time since April of 2017, though the increase since March is not statistically significant (42% approve currently).

Quote:All in all, do you think Donald Trump has been a better
president than Barack Obama, or do you think Obama
was a better president than Trump has been?
All in all, do you think Donald Trump has done a better
job as president than Hillary Clinton would have done
if she had been elected in 2016, or do you think
Clinton would have done a better job as president
than Trump has done?

Trump does not fare well compared to Obama, Americans divided between Trump and Clinton

Obama 56 - Trump 37
H. Clinton 47 - Trump 44

Source: CNN poll, May 2-5, 2018, 499 adult Americans for Q5a, 516 adult Americans for Q5b, margin of sampling error of ±5.1% pts.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/...index.html

[pbrower2a]

For a historical perspective on Presidents from Eisenhower to Trump:

Jim Sciutto‏Verified account @jimsciutto


CNN/SSRS POLL
May 2-5 Presidential Approval Rating

Bush, 2002 77%
Kennedy, 1962 71%
Bush, 1990 65%
Eisenhower, 1954 60%
Nixon, 1970 59%
Clinton, 1994 51%
Obama, 2010 51%
Reagan, 1982 45%
Carter, 1978 41%
Trump, now 41%

1:11 PM - 7 May 2018

Even Reagan was within range so long as a few things went right or he ran a spirited and effective campaign. Things other than his moral lapses are going right for Trump, so it is going to take both things going conspicuously right (so far he is lucky at that) and an unusually spirited and effective campaign, probably against an incredibly-weak opponent, to get re-elected.

[pbrower2a]

There have been few desirable statewide polls in the last month. I expect the bump involving optimism about a nuclear deal with North Korea to disintegrate to the detriment of the President's chances of being re-elected.

Well, I have one new poll in a state that should be wildly pro-Trump. The state is Tennessee, and I expect it to be closer in 2020 than it was in 2016, Besides, the chances of a popular ex-Governor (even of the 'wrong' Party) winning an open Senate seat are usually very good even in 'average' times.

First statewide poll that I have shown for a while. The other two either are favorability (Michigan) or have a wide difference between approval and disapproval (about 15%) in a swing state (Florida). It's Tennessee.  I have seen few polls from during that 'bump'. It may be just as well that we saw few of those. The Senate seat could be far more important.

Obviously, Democrats have no chance to pick up a Senate state in a state like Tennessee as they did in Alabama late last year... whoops!


 

Quote:

Quote:Tennessee: Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV (change from December)

Approve 53 (+5)
Disapprove 44 (-3)

Favorability: Marsha Blackburn 49/38, Phil Bredesen 67/25

Similar to the NC poll in showing statewide increase in approval for the President.

I expect the bump that the President got for the talk of getting a nuke agreement with North Korea will dissipate soon. We have seen few polls from during the bump, and at that we may be blessed. I'm predicting a return to 'normal'.

The Senate seat looks within range of a takeover by the Democrats with those favorability numbers.

Approval:




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.

[pbrower2a]

Multiple states:

[/url]

Quote:[url=http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1085/Toplines_Dcorps-AFT%20June%20National%20Web-Survey.pdf]Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

Approve 45 (strongly 21)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 42)

Battleground states:

Approve 46 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 40)

Generic Congressional ballot: National D 51, R 42 (D+9), Battleground states D 49, R 43 (D+6)

Except for CO and NM most of the 'battleground' states were close to even or strongly pro-Trump in the 2016 election. In the battleground states, Trump on the whole is in the mid-fifties in disapproval, and 'strong disapproval' is twice as high as 'strong approval'. I cannot break these numbers down into results for individual states unless this pollster should do so later. Thus I have no new map.

Draw your own conclusion.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia (Quinnipiac):

38% Approve
56% Disapprove

Source


Another atrocious poll for the President in Virginia (one of the two states in which I expect people to be most savvy about politics -- the other is Maryland). Forgetting the last poll I mapped for Virginia, I was tempted to think that this is another outlier -- but it is actually a slight (if insignificant) improvement for the President.


Marist/NBC, Arizona, Florida, and Ohio:


Trump approval in Arizona 41-47; 52% of Arizona state voters will vote for Democrats to check Donald Trump. Should be re-elected -- 35%; should not 57%.

Trump approval in Florida 45-46. 49% want more Democrats in Congress to check the President, and only 40% want more Republicans to aid him in advancing his legislation. Should he be re-elected? 37% for, 54% against.

Trump approval in Ohio: 42-49. 35-51 split on whether they want more Democrats in Congress to check President Trump or Republicans to aid in passing his agenda. Re-elect him? Only 34% agree, and 58% disagree.

Quote:...These three states voted for Donald Trump for President in 2016, and it looks in view of the more explicit question of re-electing him, that they won't. Starting with the baseline of 306-232 in the Electoral college (ignoring people who cast electoral votes for someone other than Trump or Clinton as protest messages), these states have 11, 18, and 29 electoral votes. Those three states alone would be the difference between Trump getting 306 electoral votes in a repeat of 2016 and ending up with only 248.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-r...d_nn_tw_np

My model of 100-DIS may be too lenient for this President. My model errs on the side of caution. It has been my proxy for the basic question of whether Donald Trump will or will not be re-elected. The question in this Marist poll asks this question explicitly and supersedes ny proxy of 100-DIS where available. At this point the only questions of whether President Trump will be re-elected will be:

1. whether estimates for Arizona, Florida, and Ohio are accurate
2. whether answers to the question "re-elect/elect someone else" stick (changes in attitudes toward this President, as shown in polling)
3. whether the Democrats avoid nominating someone unsuited to the Presidency (let us say a Democrat with much the same sordid personal life and business connections as Donald Trump) or Vice-President (think of Sarah Palin)
4. whether President Trump chooses to run for President or can run
5. whether we have free and competitive elections or get a rigged election

Yes, "Generic Democrat" and "Generic Republican" go into hibernation about as winter starts loosening its icy grip in Iowa and New Hampshire in the year of a Presidential election.

Quote:It's worth noting that these surveys were in the field June 17-22, during a time when the national conversation was focused on the administration’s policy of separating migrant children from their parents.

Of course, it's hard to imagine Americans becoming more sympathetic to the harsh separation of parents and children in the deportation issue. People who believe that children and parents alike should be deported if they came here illegally can strongly disapprove of separating parents and children, let alone using the children as tools of blackmailing people seeking entry into the US to abandon their rights to contest the legal process of deportation. I see forced separation of parents and children as a potential means of compromising the rights of citizens in criminal cases (as in, plead guilty to a felony charge or you will lose your children permanently). Children should not be bargaining chips in the legal process unless the process involves the possibility of abuse or neglect.

Illegal aliens have the right to due process of law, and if they don't, then such is at risk for us all. This President inculcates as much fear as he inculcates disgust.


Approval of the President:



55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.

[pbrower2a]

July 3, 2018 - Harsh Words For U.S. Family Separation Policy, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Have Dim View Of Trump,

Quote:"Sad," "terrible," "bad," "wrong," are the words most frequently used by American voters to describe the practice of separating children from their parents when families try to enter the U.S. illegally, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

In fact, the 18 words most frequently used in an open-ended question by the independent Quinnipiac University National Poll, allowing for any answer, are all negative.

The top words and the number of times they were used, not percentages, are:

   Sad - 79 times;
   Terrible - 67 times;
   Bad - 53 times;
   Wrong - 47 times;
   Disgusted - 45 times;
   Horrible - 39 times.

American voters disapprove 58 - 39 percent of the way President Donald Trump is handling immigration.

President Trump is racist, 49 percent of voters say, while 47 percent say he is not racist. But 50 percent of voters say the main motive for Trump's immigration policies is "a sincere interest in controlling our borders," while 44 percent say the main motive is "racist beliefs."

Democrats in Congress are more interested in "exploiting the nation's immigration issue for political gain," 60 percent of voters say, while 34 percent say they are more interested in "resolving the nation's immigration issue."

"The words are G-rated, but a punch to the gut of President Donald Trump's immigration policy," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"When it comes to the separation of immigrant kids from their parents, American voters are clearly appalled."

Separating children from their parents was a violation of human rights, American voters say 60 - 36 percent. The Trump Administration has a responsibility to unite these children with their parents, voters say 83 - 12 percent. Undocumented immigrants are not more likely than American citizens to commit crimes, American voters say 69 - 25 percent.

I would use the word "cruel". I consider cruelty the most dangerous of human characteristics, the fount of great evil and of nothing but evil.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

                    APPROVE......   DISAPPROVE.....

                    Strngly Smwht   Smwht   Strngly DK/NA

Jul 03, 2018         30      10       8      47       5

Jun 20, 2018         32      10       5      47       6

Jun 06, 2018         29      11       8      44       9

Apr 25, 2018         31       8       6      47       8

Apr 10, 2018         30      10      10      42       7

Mar 21, 2018         30       9       7      46       8

Mar 07, 2018         28      10       7      48       7

Feb 21, 2018         26      10       6      52       6

Feb 07, 2018         30      10       8      47       5

Jan 25, 2018         28       8       6      52       7

Source: Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

[Eric the Green]

The amazingly bad thing is that 37-39% approve of the Drump's policies.

[pbrower2a]

(07-03-2018, 11:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The amazingly bad thing is that 37-39% approve of the Drump's policies.

"Strongly disapprove", though, is at 47%.

[pbrower2a]

Here's a twist: this is a poll from the UK, where people find the President's word salad no more incomprehensible than we Yanks do.

This  YouGov poll of 1648 adults in Great Britain is from July 9-10 (changes from a similar survey in May).

So far, do you think Donald Trump has been a ______ President?

Great 2 (-1)
Good 11 (+1)
Average 16 (-2)
Poor 20 (-3)
Terrible 44 (+5)

Do you think the Trump presidency has been good / bad for ______ ?

The USA   26 / 47
The rest of the world   9 / 61
International relations   11 / 64

Favourability:

Donald Trump   17 / 77
Vladimir Putin   7 / 79
Angela Merkel   41 / 39
Emmanuel Macron   30 / 32
Justin Trudeau   40 / 20
Barack Obama   76 / 17
George W. Bush   17 / 64

[pbrower2a]

Several polls from Survey Monkey/Axios over about a month. None will supplant more recent polling.


Approval of the President:

FL 48-50 (not using due to a more recent poll)
IN 50-48
MI 46-53
MO 51-48
MT 51-48
ND 55-43
OH 53-45 (not using due to a later poll)
PA 44-56
WI 44-55
WV 59-40
AZ 47-52 (not using due to a later poll)
NV 45-54
TN 60-39

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bwnfno7...sGQlR/view



55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.

[pbrower2a]

Winning the West has polled 500 likely voters each recently in AZ, CO, MT, NM and NV and generic congressional ballot results for each state are buried in the releases + several other important issues such as Trump approval and how things are moving in the right/wrong direction in each state and the US:

Generic congressional ballot

Quote:9. If the elections for congress were held today, would you vote for the [ROTATE] Republican candidate, the Democratic candidate or a third-party candidate? [IF NO ANSWER GIVEN ASK:] and which one do you lean toward at this time?

AZ: D+1
CO: D+12
MT: R+1
NM: D+21
NV: D+5

Trump approval:

AZ: 43-52 (... Trump+2 sample, "how did you vote in 2016")
CO: 34-60 (Hillary+12 sample)
MT: 45-46 (Trump+11 sample)
NM: 34-61 (Hillary+15 sample)
NV: 42-53 (Hillary+3 sample)

Are things moving in the right/wrong direction in [state] and [the US]:

AZ: 41-49, 42-55
CO: 46-43, 32-63
MT: 46-38, 38-54
NM: 23-65, 30-66
NV: 46-42, 42-55

State topline results

Overall presentation

Issues heavily mentioned involve land use, conservation, and energy safety. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is unpopular even in Montana. Extreme positions are unwelcome, and solar power is popular.

Montana is in play? Wow!

Definitely not in the West, and ho-hum. New York state, Quinnipiac.

36-57 approve/disapprove.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/relea...aseID=2556









55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.

[pbrower2a]

States' history of voting, 1992-2016



All elections for the Democrat
1R, 6D
2R, 5D
4D, 3R or 3R, 4D (white if voting for H. Clinton, light blue if voting for Trump
5R, 2D
6R, 1D
All elections for the Democrat

That a state voted more often one way or another means something, unless the state has strongly trended one way or the other. Because Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia have strongly trended Republican, they are apparently less likely to vote for a Democratic nominee in 2020 than any states that voted once for a Democrat for President (including Indiana). Nearly-splitting evenly (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) means less for the Democrat than does how the state voted in 2016.

Ohio voted 'right' in every Presidential election since 1960. and I do not expect that to change.  My system shows Iowa more likely to have voted Democratic than Colorado or Virginia-- but I no longer believe that Iowa will vote more D than Colorado or Virginia for a very long time in a close election.

Now -- how they voted in 2016, but with no distinctions in margins over 10%.

 

Trump by 10% or more
Trump, 6% or more but less than 10%
Trump, 2% or more but less than 6%
Trump by 2% or less (white)
H. Clinton by 4% or less
H. Clinton by 4% or more but less than 10%
H. Clinton by 10% or more

I don't have as much distinction between bare wins by H. Clinton as between those of Trump, but all in all, I've seen many polls of Colorado and Virginia and few of New Mexico -- and they have been execrable for Trump since 2017. Those for New Hampshire (which is unlikely to decide anything) have been consistently awful for Trump. Except when he was lauding an infrastructure program (it was privatization to profiteering monopolists, and most people do not want to pay $10 more in tolls per day just to ensure that a few people get jobs) polls of Minnesota suggest that Trump's near-win of the state was a fluke. I have seen little about Maine at large, but those two electoral votes will not decide an election. What little I have seen of polling in Nevada has suggested that the state has drifted away from Trump.

As simply as I can put it -- Florida and any other state that Trump won in white or pale blue wins the Presidency for the Democrat. Should Trump lose Pennsylvania and any other two states in white or deep blue, he loses -- which of course includes Michigan and Wisconsin -- and provides the easiest path to victory for any Democrat.  

This is before I discuss any possible Trump loss involving the High Plains states from Montana to Kansas. Those states may comprise but 19 electoral votes, but these states which heavily rely upon income from agriculture stand to be hurt worst in a trade war. Iowa certainly goes along with them, so this is about as bad as losing Florida. Michigan and Wisconsin may be Rust Belt states, but they have significant agricultural sectors which can go enough D that if farmers and ranchers go about 55-45 R instead of 70-30 R, then both Michigan and Wisconsin flip.


 

Farmers and ranchers generally vote about 70R-30D.  Farmers and ranchers vote their pocketbooks, as they usually end up cash cows for federal, state, and local tax revenues. But falling commodity prices and rising input prices can hurt just as much as tax increases. Farmers and ranchers took a huge swing from R to D between 1928 and 1932 over economic distress, and they could do much the same should the Trade War hurt them. Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas account for 19 electoral votes -- OK, NE-02, which is much of Greater Omaha, isn't really rural. These states depend upon farm exports. So if Trump loses enough of the farm-and-ranch vote  he can easily lose 18 electoral votes just for that.   For this scenario I am putting the states most directly affected by rural distress in green, and those that could easily swing for such in pale green.

[Eric the Green]

I wonder if the states in green in your first map will continue to vote by race. The last 3 elections especially people have been voting in those states by identity politics, and they are dominated by southern whites. If some of them begin to see the folly of voting by race instead of economic interest, then they may swing back Democratic. It's a faint hope, perhaps.