Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Classic-Xer]

(01-18-2017, 04:44 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(01-18-2017, 02:34 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: So WTF happened in November?

Oh I know, November was like a drunken f___ ... everyone was supposed to forget about it the next morning. It was really nothing dear ....

...Until at least 2021 we are going to recognize that the last really-good President was Barack Obama. The Democrats can win big with another Obama-like nominee in 2020. This shadow will loom over Donald Trump, a vulgar and impetuous mediocrity.

All in all, I see President Obama as another Eisenhower (consider that in 2012 he won 331 electoral votes, and not one of them in a state that Eisenhower didn't win twice). But his temperament is that of a 60-something Reactive, the sort of person who typically reaches the apex of secular power after the Crisis is resolved or is all but resolved. The pattern includes Washington, John Adams, Truman, and Eisenhower, with your guess on who the better Gilded Presidents were. He is not the sort of leader to push Americans into a new direction.

Donald Trump has already betrayed many who voted for him, and for a President who got a slightly-larger share of the vote than Dukakis in 1988 and McCain in 2008 -- and both were considered clear losers -- there just isn't much wiggle room for error as President. This is especially true if the Republicans lose two of three gubernatorial races in Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2018.

Could Barack Obama have been the Gray Champion? He would have needed a Third Term. The American economy looks to have grown out of the economic meltdown of 2007-2009 as it did out of the 1929-1932 meltdown. Maybe Howe would need to adjust the Boom/X boundary to 1961/1962 instead of 1960/1961.

"General Motors is alive, and Osama bin Laden is dead" -- and we all know that a seven-year bull market is no accident, and that he had to be on at worst an arms-length relationship with the intelligence agencies and the Armed Services to whack Osama bin Laden.

I agree, Obama was the best Blue American President that Blue America has seen since Jimmy Carter.

[pbrower2a]

Two states with only seven electoral votes between them. Both are awful for the President. One came close to voting for him in 2016, an done will likely be close one way or the other in 2020. Sure, there will be 531 other electoral votes to be decided in 2020, but these seven electoral votes, if they all go one way or the other, will indicate a landslide one way or the other.

Big Sky Poll - Montana:

Excellent + Good: 43% (Good 20%)
Fair + Poor: 53% (Poor 41%)

Source


Indeed that is a horrible number.

Technically this is not approve-disapprove."Excellent" and "Good" are unambiguous statements of approval,   and  "poor" is unambiguous disapproval.  The word "fair" can be ambiguous in meaning. "Fair" performance on the violin by a seven-year-old kid might be praiseworthy, but you would not praise a "fair" performance of violin playing by an adult if you had recordings of Kreisler, Heifetz, Oistrakh, Grumiaux, Milstein, Stern, or Perlman against which to compare them. "Fair play", "fair dealing", and "fair weather" are positive contexts.

"Fair" in most contexts is mediocrity, and if one wants food cheap and convenient, then typical fast food is mediocrity. It will quiet your hunger pangs.  Mediocrity in politics is far better than hideousness, let alone horror. If one treats "excellent" and "good" as general approval, then one gets 43% approval. "Poor" unambiguously suggests disapproval at 41%. I am tempted to split the "fair" category (12%) of responses 50-50 to give a 49-47 positive approval, which suggests a near-tie as I have for such states as Missouri and Nebraska. Neither is an ideal analogue for Montana, which has not gone for a Democratic nominee for President since 1992, and then did so in a three-way split of the popular vote. Sure, it was sort-of-close for Obama in 2008, but that matters little. I cannot think of any state that is a good analogue to Montana, including any of its neighbors. Montana is not at all  a farm state (I am guessing that about half the agricultural vote in North and South Dakota and a quarter of the agricultural vote in Idaho is in farming), and it does not depend upon as much as Wyoming upon energy extraction.  

I see few polls for Montana, but I expect to see more because of the Senate seat up for re-election in a state usually tough for Democrats to contest even as incumbents. My treatment of Donald Trump's esteem in Montana may be a bit charitable toward him; I tend to err on the side  of the prospect of President Trump getting re-elected.  This poll suggests that Montana will not be a sure win for Donald Trump in 2020.

Quote:

Women: 29/70 (-41)
18-35 years: 27/73 (-46)
65+ years: 36/62 (-26)

Shaheen has a 57/34 approval in the same poll (69/28 among females, 66/26 among 18 to 34-year-olds and 63/35 among voters 65 or older), and Democrats lead the Generic Congressional Ballot in NH by 12 points.

Neither did I. I thought that the 26/67 spread that I have had too good to be true for someone who despises the President as I do 36-61 is more like it. Could it be that New Hampshire voters who as a whole were close to giving their state's four electoral votes to President Trump now are less supportive of him by about 10%? Republican nominees for President can win without New Hampshire, but I can;t imagine any Republican losing new Hampshire by 10% or more and getting elected.

Donald Trump may be reminding Granite State voters of the sort of New Yorker that they least like, the ugly stereotype of a blustering, domineering, liar with a bloated ego.  




Approval:




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  The Montana poll is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll which is semantically different from approve-disapprove, and I am splitting the 12% "fair" evenly  (6-6), and after an approval poll comes in I would never replace it with another EGFP poll.

[pbrower2a]

I can fill in the blanks for three states (Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania). At this point I see President Trump losing the 2020 Presidential election decisively.

Five states, three of them altogether new to this map (with 37 electoral votes), from PPP (if for a liberal advocacy group; PPP errs on the side of Republicans in the name of caution:

Arizona, 45-50

http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content...rch-21.pdf

Nevada, 45-51

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-conten...rch-21.pdf

Pennsylvania, 42-53

http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content...rch-21.pdf

Tennessee, 54-42

http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content...h-21-1.pdf

Wisconsin, 41-51

http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content...rch-21.pdf

These polls were automated phone polls.

Senate results:

Dem margins in Senate battlegrounds, per @ppppolls
#PAsen Casey (D) 54% (+18) Barletta ® 36%
#WIsen Baldwin (D) 51 (+12) Vukmir ® 39
#TNsen Bredesen (D) 46 (+5) Blackburn ® 41
#NVsen Rosen (D) 44 (+5) Heller ® 39
#AZsen Sinema (D) 46 (+5) McSally ® 41%



Approval:




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections. The Montana poll is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll which is semantically different from approve-disapprove, and I am splitting the 12% "fair" evenly (6-6), and after an approval poll comes in I would never replace it with another EGFP poll.

[pbrower2a]

At this point I see President Trump losing at least as badly as the elder Bush in 1992 and at worst either Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, for very different reasons. This I say having filled in po0lls of Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada on the map. Texas is line at which the Democrat wins 400+ electoral votes.

[pbrower2a]

PPP has usually been one of the more Republican-friendly pollsters due to its screen. But Donald Trump took a loss of 5% in approval and a jump of 5% in disapproval to 39-54. Both are just outside the margin of error -- but that means that the difference must be recognized as significant.

Here are (some) highlights of Public Policy Polling’s newest national poll.

Quote:Guns

PPP’s newest national poll finds that Americans like the high school students leading protests against gun violence across the country a whole lot more than they like the NRA. The high school students receive a positive 56/34 favorability rating for their efforts, while the NRA is upside down with 39% of voters seeing it favorably and 44% negatively.

There’s 87% support for background checks for all gun buyers, compared to only 8% of voters who are opposed to that. That policy has the backing of 89% of Democrats and 85% of Republicans and independents. It’s hard to find anything 87% of Americans agree on- in fact on this same poll we found that only 81% think the sky is blue with 11% disputing that notion.

We also found 64/26 support for a ban on assault weapons, again with bipartisan agreement. Democrats (78/15), independents (61/25), and Republicans (49/40) are all in agreement. In general 60% of voters say they want stronger gun laws to 32% who are opposed.

One new gun proposal voters don’t like though is giving them to teachers. Only 35% of voters think that’s a good idea, to 53% who say it’s a bad one.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump has one of the worst approval ratings we’ve found for him since he took office this month, with only 39% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 54% who disapprove. 54% of voters wish Barack Obama was still President, to only 40% who are glad that Trump is.

Trump fares poorly on several basic leadership metrics. 52% of voters characterize him as a ‘liar,’ to 41% who disagree with that description. 57% of voters still want to see his tax returns, to only 38% who are alright with him keeping them private. And just 38% think he has delivered on his core promise to ‘Make America Great Again,’ to 54% who say he has not.

In hypothetical match ups for reelection Trump trails Joe Biden 56-39, Bernie Sanders 55-39, Elizabeth Warren 51-40, Cory Booker 49-39, Kamala Harris 43-39, and Kirsten Gillibrand 42-40. Trump is consistently at 39% or 40% no matter who you poll him against.

Stormy Daniels

We also tested Trump against 2 other hypothetical opponents- although they are one and the same. In groundbreaking research PPP determined that someone’s porn star name costs them 10 points as a candidate for President. Stephanie Clifford leads Trump 42-41 in a hypothetical match up for reelection. But tested under her stage name of Stormy Daniels, she trails Trump 41-32. Trump’s 41% is consistent across the two match ups, but when Clifford shifts to Daniels she loses 10 points of her support.

60% of voters think it’s immoral if Trump had an affair with Daniels, to 21% who say it’s not immoral. Trump voters are pretty divided on the question though- only 41% think it’s immoral if he had an affair with Daniels to 33% who say it’s not and 26% who are not sure.

We also as an experiment asked voters if they think it would be immoral if Bill Clinton had an affair with Daniels. Trump voters think that would be immoral by an 18 point margin (46/28) compared to just the 8 point margin for Trump having an affair with Daniels. Hillary Clinton voters were more consistent, saying it would be immoral for Trump to by a 60 point margin (74/14) and saying it would be immoral for Bill Clinton to by a 62 point margin (75/13). Still the Trump Presidency seems to have shifted the moral standards Republicans hold Bill Clinton to quite a bit compared to what they were 20 years ago.

Other items:
Americans
Disapprove of President Trump congratulating Russian President Vladimir Putin on re-election 37-45.
Believe that the Trump campaign coordinated with Russian  interests in the 2016 election, 46-41.
Approve/disapprove of the FBI,  47-32
Believe that the Russia story is 'fake news', 37-50
Want the President to resign if he is proved to have won through foreign connivance, 54-39
Want Robert Mueller fired, 26-57
Mental stability  of the President, 46-47
President honest/dishonest, 40-53
Protecting "Dreamers", 64-23
Generic ballot for Congress: Democrats 50 Republicans 39
Approval , Speaker of the House Paul Ryan 23-58
Approval, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell 12-62
Congress as a whole 10-73

[Bob Butler 54]

One thing of note, Trump's approval is going up even as the major blue coastal media outlets are obviously and with cause trashing him.  It looks like major outlets like CNN and the New York Times are trying to make Trump look bad, but their efforts are in some ways backfiring.

So much for the Republicans or middle America standing for family values.  Are we seeing a flip flop on values or is this just partisanship?  Depending on who is abusing women, one is just expected to look the other way?  Political values trump family values?

[pbrower2a]

It could be tribalism in which identity suffices as principle. It is hardly shocking that the center-to-left media trash the President for his frequent and severe bad behavior. The shock is that such entities as FoX News, Breitbart, and Drudge give this President a pass. In the meantime, such a conservative as George Will finds conservative arguments against Trump and ends up on MSNBC.

[David Horn]

(03-28-2018, 10:10 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: One thing of note, Trump's approval is going up even as the major blue coastal media outlets are obviously and with cause trashing him.  It looks like major outlets like CNN and the New York Times are trying to make Trump look bad, but their efforts are in some ways backfiring.

So much for the Republicans or middle America standing for family values.  Are we seeing a flip flop on values or is this just partisanship?  Depending on who is abusing women, one is just expected to look the other way?  Political values trump family values?

This has defensive reflex stamped all over it. “Attack me and I attack back.”

[pbrower2a]

Gaps filled. http://mtsupoll.org/

Trump approval at 50-41 in Tennessee.


I find that Morning Consult may be overstating the strength of the GOP in the South. I will not use its polls to replace polls that I have of Southern states. I will replace the obsolete poll of Minnesota (where Trump did well in polling while he talked about an infrastructure program that Congress rejected; ore miners in Minnesota had been excited about the prospect of more activity to get the iron ore necessary for steel in such projects, but once that fell through, I expect Minnesota to trend to its usual norm. That's 40-57. I am also replacing the "excellent-good-fair-poor" poll in Montana with the 50-46 that I see on Morning Consult.

Otherwise I am filling in gaps.



Approval:




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NH 36
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 36
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections. The Montana poll is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll which is semantically different from approve-disapprove, and I am splitting the 12% "fair" evenly (6-6), and after an approval poll comes in I would never replace it with another EGFP poll.

[Classic-Xer]

(03-28-2018, 10:10 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: One thing of note, Trump's approval is going up even as the major blue coastal media outlets are obviously and with cause trashing him.  It looks like major outlets like CNN and the New York Times are trying to make Trump look bad, but their efforts are in some ways backfiring.

So much for the Republicans or middle America standing for family values.  Are we seeing a flip flop on values or is this just partisanship?  Depending on who is abusing women, one is just expected to look the other way?  Political values trump family values?

I'm sure family values are still around and are still involved in peoples decisions these days.

[Eric the Green]

Voters aged 60+ have shifted 12 points towards the Democrats since 2016. These voters are the bedrock of Republican strength. The fact they’re moving towards us in such massive numbers is an extremely good sign for November.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e...SKBN1HG1I6

Older, white, educated voters helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2016. Now, they are trending toward Democrats in such numbers that their ballots could tip the scales in tight congressional races from New Jersey to California, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll and a data analysis of competitive districts shows.

Nationwide, whites over the age of 60 with college degrees now favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a 2-point margin, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polling during the first three months of the year. During the same period in 2016, that same group favored Republicans for Congress by 10 percentage points.

The 12-point swing is one of the largest shifts in support toward Democrats that the Reuters/Ipsos poll has measured over the past two years. If that trend continues, Republicans will struggle to keep control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, in the November elections, potentially dooming President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.

[pbrower2a]

(04-09-2018, 02:08 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(03-28-2018, 10:10 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: One thing of note, Trump's approval is going up even as the major blue coastal media outlets are obviously and with cause trashing him.  It looks like major outlets like CNN and the New York Times are trying to make Trump look bad, but their efforts are in some ways backfiring.

So much for the Republicans or middle America standing for family values.  Are we seeing a flip flop on values or is this just partisanship?  Depending on who is abusing women, one is just expected to look the other way?  Political values trump family values?

I'm sure family values are still around and are still involved in peoples decisions these days.

"Family values" do not include fornicating with anyone willing that one wants, walking into a dressing room full of the other gender, or grabbing females by their crotches.

[Ragnarök_62]

(04-09-2018, 05:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-09-2018, 02:08 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(03-28-2018, 10:10 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: One thing of note, Trump's approval is going up even as the major blue coastal media outlets are obviously and with cause trashing him.  It looks like major outlets like CNN and the New York Times are trying to make Trump look bad, but their efforts are in some ways backfiring.

So much for the Republicans or middle America standing for family values.  Are we seeing a flip flop on values or is this just partisanship?  Depending on who is abusing women, one is just expected to look the other way?  Political values trump family values?

I'm sure family values are still around and are still involved in peoples decisions these days.

"Family values" do not include fornicating with anyone willing that one wants, walking into a dressing room full of the other gender, or grabbing females by their crotches.

True.  I'd also assume that goes for folks who are "gender non binary" who think they can waltz into the bathroom which matches what they think they are vs. birth sex. Simple, actually. I don't want any guy bodies with my mon's or sisters' in the bath room.

[Eric the Green]

(04-09-2018, 06:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(04-09-2018, 05:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-09-2018, 02:08 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(03-28-2018, 10:10 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: One thing of note, Trump's approval is going up even as the major blue coastal media outlets are obviously and with cause trashing him.  It looks like major outlets like CNN and the New York Times are trying to make Trump look bad, but their efforts are in some ways backfiring.

So much for the Republicans or middle America standing for family values.  Are we seeing a flip flop on values or is this just partisanship?  Depending on who is abusing women, one is just expected to look the other way?  Political values trump family values?

I'm sure family values are still around and are still involved in peoples decisions these days.

"Family values" do not include fornicating with anyone willing that one wants, walking into a dressing room full of the other gender, or grabbing females by their crotches.

True.  I'd also assume that goes for folks who are "gender non binary" who think they can waltz into the bathroom which matches what they think they are vs. birth sex. Simple, actually. I don't want any guy bodies with my mom's or sisters' in the bath room.

I wouldn't mind at all. Bodies are bodies. May not be "family values," that's true. But there's better values than those.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-09-2018, 05:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-09-2018, 02:08 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(03-28-2018, 10:10 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: One thing of note, Trump's approval is going up even as the major blue coastal media outlets are obviously and with cause trashing him.  It looks like major outlets like CNN and the New York Times are trying to make Trump look bad, but their efforts are in some ways backfiring.

So much for the Republicans or middle America standing for family values.  Are we seeing a flip flop on values or is this just partisanship?  Depending on who is abusing women, one is just expected to look the other way?  Political values trump family values?

I'm sure family values are still around and are still involved in peoples decisions these days.

"Family values" do not include fornicating with anyone willing that one wants, walking into a dressing room full of the other gender, or grabbing females by their crotches.

Are you talking about Bill Clinton, Matt Lauer or Donald Trump?

[pbrower2a]

(04-10-2018, 01:09 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(04-09-2018, 05:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-09-2018, 02:08 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(03-28-2018, 10:10 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: One thing of note, Trump's approval is going up even as the major blue coastal media outlets are obviously and with cause trashing him.  It looks like major outlets like CNN and the New York Times are trying to make Trump look bad, but their efforts are in some ways backfiring.

So much for the Republicans or middle America standing for family values.  Are we seeing a flip flop on values or is this just partisanship?  Depending on who is abusing women, one is just expected to look the other way?  Political values trump family values?

I'm sure family values are still around and are still involved in peoples decisions these days.

"Family values" do not include fornicating with anyone willing that one wants, walking into a dressing room full of the other gender, or grabbing females by their crotches.

Are you talking about Bill Clinton, Matt Lauer or Donald Trump?

I know about the fornication of Bill Clinton. I have forgotten the details about Matt Lauer. Donald Trump is apparently guilty on all counts.

[Classic-Xer]

(04-09-2018, 10:54 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-09-2018, 06:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(04-09-2018, 05:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-09-2018, 02:08 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(03-28-2018, 10:10 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: One thing of note, Trump's approval is going up even as the major blue coastal media outlets are obviously and with cause trashing him.  It looks like major outlets like CNN and the New York Times are trying to make Trump look bad, but their efforts are in some ways backfiring.

So much for the Republicans or middle America standing for family values.  Are we seeing a flip flop on values or is this just partisanship?  Depending on who is abusing women, one is just expected to look the other way?  Political values trump family values?

I'm sure family values are still around and are still involved in peoples decisions these days.

"Family values" do not include fornicating with anyone willing that one wants, walking into a dressing room full of the other gender, or grabbing females by their crotches.

True.  I'd also assume that goes for folks who are "gender non binary" who think they can waltz into the bathroom which matches what they think they are vs. birth sex. Simple, actually. I don't want any guy bodies with my mom's or sisters' in the bath room.

I wouldn't mind at all. Bodies are bodies. May not be "family values," that's true. But there's better values than those.

Are you still able to get it up?

[pbrower2a]

(04-11-2018, 12:08 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Are you still able to get it up?

Irrelevant -- and pointlessly vulgar.

[Eric the Green]

It's hard to believe, but apparently Paul Ryan has just announced he won't seek re-election. I guess that could be good if that means the Democrats take over his seat. I don't know if that will happen, but Ryan apparently thought he could be voted out, or else he was tired of representing the freedom caucus, or both. I doubt the reactionary party can replace Ryan with anyone except someone even more reactionary as (likely perhaps) future minority leader. We'll see; I'm a bit amazed that the convinced trickle-down, Ayn Rand/Hayek evangelist believer threw in the towel so easily.

[pbrower2a]

(04-11-2018, 11:02 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's hard to believe, but apparently Paul Ryan has just announced he won't seek re-election. I guess that could be good if that means the Democrats take over his seat. I don't know if that will happen, but Ryan apparently thought he could be voted out, or else he was tired of representing the freedom caucus, or both. I doubt the reactionary party can replace Ryan with anyone except someone even more reactionary as (likely perhaps) future minority leader. We'll see; I'm a bit amazed that the convinced trickle-down, Ayn Rand/Hayek evangelist believer threw in the towel so easily.

1. Under Donald Trump it is easier to be an elected Democrat than to be an elected Republican. Being a member of the Opposition usually gives more leeway, as one can live in accordance with principles with little to stop one. Being in the same Party as the President means that one needs a spine to have some independence. With a President who insists upon lockstep obedience as if he were a despot or dictator, one has more difficulties.

2. He could be voted out. There was a statewide race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court in a special election. Democrats had not won such a race except with an incumbent for twenty years or so -- but one the special election by a big margin. Statewide wins are usually narrow, either way, in Wisconsin, but this election was by a landslide margin (56-44). That's about how Obama did in Wisconsin in 2008 when Obama won a landslide election outside the South and High Plains.

His district is R+5, which is strong enough for a Republican to win in normal election years, barring a discrediting scandal. But I have seen generic ballots in which the Republicans are behind by 10%, and Republicans in R+5 elections are vulnerable.

3. Even if he won re-election, he could easily lose the role of Speaker of the House. His Party needs a majority in the House if it is to have a Speaker from his Party, and Republicans can lose lots of seats. Republicans have gerrymandered many states to leave lots of R+5 seats that are safe except in Democratic waves. An unpopular President makes such a wave possible.

4. Maybe we can take him at his word that he wants to spend more time with his family. A difficult campaign ensures that he becomes effectively a father who rarely sees his children, at least early in the autumn of 2018. If he wins re-election, he sai9d he would be only a 'weekend father'. Retired from the House he might get a position as a college teacher of government, which allows him to be home for dinner with his children.

5. Reactionary as Rand and Hayek are, neither showed signs of support for corrupt politics as has erupted under Donald Trump. The libertarian ideal of minimal government ensures that not only is there no welfare state, but also no official graft. Donald Trump is not a libertarian; he is a big-government right-winger who wants to spend huge amounts of money on prisons, the military, and on infrastructure (the latter in public-private partnerships in which the government takes the entrepreneurial risks and a private entity skims the rewards). A Republican with libertarian tendencies has as much cause to hold President Trump in contempt as does a liberal.