Election 2020

[Camz]

I agree with Bob Butler 54. I've been lurking for maybe a week now, and I keep wondering what H&S's generational theory has to say about the election. I can see Bernie being our gray champion. If he becomes president, being unable to afford medicare, using fossil fuels, and outrageous student loan debt could seem ancient to the new Prophets. I feel like the turning can only move forward when Trump's out of office.

[Bob Butler 54]

(02-28-2020, 11:35 AM)Camz Wrote: I agree with Bob Butler 54. I've been lurking for maybe a week now, and I keep wondering what H&S's generational theory has to say about the election. I can see Bernie being our gray champion. If he becomes president, being unable to afford medicare, using fossil fuels, and outrageous student loan debt could seem ancient to the new Prophets. I feel like the turning can only move forward when Trump's out of office.

I am also inclined to see the people not choose an establishment player of either party and the same old same old.  I also do not see them risking another billionaire talking for the people but acting for himself and his class.  That seems to leave Bernie and Warren with Bernie having the lead at the moment.

We will see if spending a lot of bucks helps defeat this, but maybe not.

[Marypoza]

(02-28-2020, 11:35 AM)Camz Wrote: I agree with Bob Butler 54. I've been lurking for maybe a week now, and I keep wondering what H&S's generational theory has to say about the election. I can see Bernie being our gray champion. If he becomes president, being unable to afford medicare, using fossil fuels, and outrageous student loan debt could seem ancient to the new Prophets. I feel like the turning can only move forward when Trump's out of office.

-- l agree. Bernie is the GC. He is the only candidate offering a way thru the Crisis & beyond. The others are just offering bandaids or else trying 2 save their collective asses. Bernie is trying 2 help the nation & it's ppl

[pbrower2a]

(02-28-2020, 11:35 AM)Camz Wrote: I agree with Bob Butler 54. I've been lurking for maybe a week now, and I keep wondering what H&S's generational theory has to say about the election. I can see Bernie being our gray champion. If he becomes president, being unable to afford medicare, using fossil fuels, and outrageous student loan debt could seem ancient to the new Prophets. I feel like the turning can only move forward when Trump's out of office.

Donald Trump could force the Regeneracy by making people desperate enough to want it that they will sweep out people associated with bad 3T ways. Trump is an exemplar of 3T decadence -- or, to use the word that in itself suggests the opposite of a Regeneracy, the Degeneracy. Trump is in roughly the same position as Herbert Hoover with an economy doing well for a few -- but the markets are running out of investment funds. When the money crunch comes, creditors will pull the plug on businesses on life support, and entities excessively leveraged will often collapse. Maybe some really-corrupt organizations will be exposed as such. A credit crunch contributed to the demise of Enrob (get it?) Corporation. Figuring that an eleven-year bull market (with few corporate bankruptcies) has let some business executives get away with some very bad behavior, I can only guess what gets exposed when fecal material hits the fan.

[Eric the Green]

Democratic Presidential Nomination real clear politics average Feb 29
Sanders 29.6
Biden 18.8
Bloomberg 16.4
Warren 11.8
Buttigieg 11.0
Klobuchar 4.0
Steyer 2.6
Gabbard 1.4

Sanders +10.8


Saturday, February 29
Race/Topic Poll Results Spread
Texas Democratic Primary Data for Progress (D) Sanders 30, Biden 21, Bloomberg 21, Warren 13, Buttigieg 9, Klobuchar 5, Gabbard 1, Steyer 1 Sanders +9
North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Data for Progress (D) Biden 25, Sanders 27, Bloomberg 18, Warren 11, Buttigieg 10, Klobuchar 6, Steyer 1, Gabbard 1 Sanders +2

Friday, February 28
Race/Topic Poll Results Spread
South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Data for Progress (D) Biden 34, Sanders 25, Steyer 13, Buttigieg 13, Warren 7, Klobuchar 5, Gabbard 3 Biden +9
South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Trafalgar Group ® Biden 44, Sanders 23, Steyer 11, Buttigieg 10, Warren 6, Klobuchar 6, Gabbard 2 Biden +21
California Democratic Primary CNN Sanders 35, Warren 14, Biden 13, Bloomberg 12, Buttigieg 7, Klobuchar 6, Steyer 3, Gabbard 1 Sanders +21
California Democratic Primary Berkeley IGS Sanders 34, Warren 17, Biden 8, Bloomberg 12, Buttigieg 11, Klobuchar 6, Steyer 2, Gabbard Sanders +17
Texas Democratic Primary CNN Sanders 29, Biden 20, Bloomberg 18, Warren 15, Buttigieg 8, Klobuchar 3, Gabbard 0, Steyer 1 Sanders +9
Texas Democratic Primary Univision/U. of Houston Sanders 26, Biden 20, Bloomberg 20, Warren 11, Buttigieg 6, Klobuchar 2, Gabbard 1, Steyer 2 Sanders +6
North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Civitas ® Biden 27, Sanders 19, Bloomberg 16, Warren 11, Buttigieg 4, Klobuchar 5, Steyer, Gabbard Biden +8
Massachusetts Democratic Presidential Primary WBUR/MassINC Sanders 25, Warren 17, Buttigieg 14, Bloomberg 13, Biden 9, Klobuchar 6, Gabbard 1, Steyer 2 Sanders +8
Massachusetts Democratic Presidential Primary UMass Amherst Sanders 25, Warren 23, Buttigieg 14, Bloomberg 9, Biden 12, Klobuchar 7, Gabbard 4, Steyer 3 Sanders +2
Utah Democratic Primary Deseret News/Hinckley Sanders 28, Bloomberg 19, Warren 15, Buttigieg 18, Biden 6, Klobuchar 4, Steyer, Gabbard Sanders +9
Virginia Democratic Primary Christopher Newport Univ. Sanders 17, Bloomberg 13, Biden 22, Buttigieg 8, Warren 8, Klobuchar 5, Gabbard Biden +5
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination FOX News Sanders 31, Biden 18, Bloomberg 16, Warren 10, Buttigieg 12, Klobuchar 5, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1 Sanders +13
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Morning Consult Sanders 33, Biden 21, Bloomberg 17, Warren 11, Buttigieg 10, Klobuchar 4, Steyer 3, Gabbard 2 Sanders +12
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Yahoo News/YouGov Sanders 27, Biden 21, Bloomberg 14, Warren 18, Buttigieg 10, Klobuchar 4, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1 Sanders +6

[Eric the Green]

2020 United States presidential primary election results
South Carolina
LiveUpdated at 9:25 PM PST
DEMOCRATIC

100% reporting
54 delegates available

Candidate
Delegates
Percent
Count

Joe Biden
33 48.4% 255,660

Bernie Sanders
11 19.9% 105,068

Tom Steyer
0 11.3% 59,817

Pete Buttigieg
0 8.2% 43,483

Elizabeth Warren
0 7.1% 37,285

Amy Klobuchar
0 3.1% 16,610

Tulsi Gabbard
0 1.3% 6,749

Andrew Yang
0 0.2% 1,044

Michael Bennet
0 0.1% 748

Cory Booker
0 0.1% 643

John Delaney
0 0.1% 345

Deval Patrick
0 0.1% 273

[Eric the Green]

Apparently Sanders (edit: almost) crossed the 20% level and got over 100,000 votes. Biden may have recaptured some momentum for super tuesday, at least in a few southern states. Tom Steyer spent a million dollars in SC and got no delegates. In most places you have to get 15% of the vote to earn delegates for the convention. That's why Sanders can win with 30% of the vote with a divided field of opponents and still win the nomination on the first ballot. That's what Trump did in the Republican Party, although it's easier to accomplish that there.

delegate race: https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/799979293...dates-have


Tom Steyer dropped out: The billionaire businessman said he decided to get out of the 2020 presidential race after he couldn't see a "path where I can win." Steyer spent big on ads in the state leading up to Saturday's vote.
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/s...index.html

From CNN's Jeff Zeleny

Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg are all studying their path forward tonight, advisers to the respective campaigns tell CNN.

Klobuchar and Warren are committed to Super Tuesday, when voters in their home states cast ballots.

But one of the biggest questions remains: What are Buttigieg and Bloomberg thinking about their next move?

All four of the candidates are scheduled to be in Selma, Alabama, for the 55th anniversary of Bloody Sunday and the annual reenactment of the bridge crossing.

Joe Biden will also be in Selma on Sunday, allowing an opportunity for conversations – or more – among all of the Democratic rivals.

The most pressing question may be for Buttigieg. He is scheduled to go to Texas, Oklahoma and California – before ending Super Tuesday in Michigan.

For now, that schedule holds. But a top Democrat close to the Buttigieg campaign acknowledged tonight that the former mayor is studying whether he has a path forward. He hasn’t reached a conclusion tonight — or if so, he hasn’t talked about it openly, even among his small circle of advisers. Buttigieg's team knows that how he leaves the race — if it comes to that — is important to his future.

My note: I think his path on super tuesday is pretty well blocked. He doesn't do well in the South, where African Americans and Latinos prefer Biden or Sanders. States in the north are dominated by the home states of rivals Klobuchar and Warren. Sanders is strong in CA, and Warren is 2nd.

Sunday, February 23
Race/Topic Poll Results Spread
Minnesota Democratic Primary Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon Klobuchar 29, Sanders 23, Warren 11, Biden 8, Bloomberg 3, Buttigieg 3, Gabbard 1
Klobuchar +6

Massachusetts Democratic Presidential Primary Boston Globe/Suffolk Sanders 24, Warren 22, Buttigieg 12, Bloomberg 13, Biden 11, Klobuchar 5, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1
Sanders +2

[Marypoza]

More ppl need 2 drop out Bsides Steyer

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-01-2020, 06:26 AM)Marypoza Wrote: More ppl need 2 drop out Bsides Steyer

This close to Super Tuesday, I doubt we will see people drop now.  After that?

[Marypoza]

(03-01-2020, 06:40 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-01-2020, 06:26 AM)Marypoza Wrote: More ppl need 2 drop out Bsides Steyer

This close to Super Tuesday, I doubt we will see people drop now.  After that?

-- yeah I'm surprised Steyer didn't wait til ST. Of all the candidates he has the !.$ 2 do that.

[ResidentArtist]

(03-01-2020, 07:33 AM)Marypoza Wrote:

(03-01-2020, 06:40 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-01-2020, 06:26 AM)Marypoza Wrote: More ppl need 2 drop out Bsides Steyer

This close to Super Tuesday, I doubt we will see people drop now.  After that?

-- yeah I'm surprised Steyer didn't wait til ST. Of all the candidates he has the !.$ 2 do that.

I think Steyer knows when to take a hint. His strategy was built on Nevada and South Carolina, but he didn't win any delegates in either of them. Besides Tulsi, the only people running now all have delegates or are holding out for ST states like Bloomberg. No clue what she's still doing in the race unless it's to make a statement.

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-01-2020, 04:24 PM)ResidentArtist Wrote: I think Steyer knows when to take a hint. His strategy was built on Nevada and South Carolina, but he didn't win any delegates in either of them. Besides Tulsi, the only people running now all have delegates or are holding out for ST states like Bloomberg. No clue what she's still doing in the race unless it's to make a statement.

Possibly she has read Marypoza's signature. While some are sizing up Sanders for filling the Grey Champion position, he is old enough that his number two could slide into it.

[Marypoza]

Well Buttcheat's gone *breathing huge sigh of relief*

[Marypoza]

(03-01-2020, 05:39 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-01-2020, 04:24 PM)ResidentArtist Wrote: I think Steyer knows when to take a hint. His strategy was built on Nevada and South Carolina, but he didn't win any delegates in either of them. Besides Tulsi, the only people running now all have delegates or are holding out for ST states like Bloomberg. No clue what she's still doing in the race unless it's to make a statement.

Possibly she has read Marypoza's signature.  While some are sizing up Sanders for filling the Grey Champion position, he is old enough that his number two could slide into it.

--  good 1!!

[Eric the Green]

Assuming the race narrows, I see some possible advantages for the candidates in the upcoming primaries.

On Super Tuesday March 3, Biden has an advantage in southern states like Alabama, Tennessee and Arkansas. He is about even with Sanders in North Carolina and will make a strong showing in Texas along with Bloomberg. Oklahoma is good ground for him and Bloomberg too. Sanders will win big in California, and is ahead in Texas, Massachussetts and Vermont, and will likely win these along with Maine and Colorado. Warren is strong in her home state and Klobuchar leads in Minnesota. Sanders has strong support across the board except maybe in Alabama. He will win the most delegates, but the race will not end.

Astrologically, Jupiter is trine to Sanders's Sun now, benefiting him a bit. Pluto continues a long-term square to his Moon-Mars and Venus. Neptune opposes his Sun in the 1966 revolutionary cycle degrees. I think this helps him keep the movement alive and in touch with the people. He brings out the revolutionary cycle. The Feb 23 new moon chart put Jupiter-Saturn-Pluto in the 9th, which helped Trump with a diplomatic breakthrough, as I predicted: the Afghan agreement.

On March 10, Sanders has the advantage in Michigan, Washington, Idaho, and North Dakota. Especially without Buttigieg, Sanders will likely carry these and other northern states as he did in 2016. Biden has the advantage in Mississippi and Missouri that day.

On March 17 Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Illinois. These states traditionally favor moderates, so Biden and maybe Bloomberg should do better, and they could get a big boost, but Sanders will benefit from latino support and liberal strength in Arizona. If his momentum continues he will win AZ.

The March 20 equinox chart focuses on the financial crisis, and the March 24 new moon focuses on the health crisis and executive power. Big challenge for Trump. Jupiter, Mars and Pluto conjunct with Saturn nearby is going on. Bernie has to watch what he says, and probably won't, in this period, so it could hurt his chances in these moderate primaries. But his energy remains high. Georgia should strongly boost Biden on March 24.

North Dakota and Puerto Rico in late March may be good Sanders territory. If Sanders is still leading after Biden's boost from the moderate states in later March, he could wrap it up in Wisconsin on April 7 and the 6 eastern states on April 28. Bernie's birth Sun position in 16 degrees Virgo is near the Midheaven of the April 23 new moon chart for DC. Neptune is exactly conjunct the Nadir, square Trump's Sun. Bad tidings for him in late April. More scandal, lies and breakdowns in control. Warren could also be strong in these states, but Biden might still have a chance to keep himself in the running if he comes in a strong 2nd in some of these states, and Bloomberg would benefit in New York if he's still running. If Bernie prevails he could sew up the nomination with this set of eastern primaries. In New Hampshire, Bernie won but Buttigieg gave him a good run, so we'll see. The eastern states are liberal, but they like establishment liberals.

Except for Oregon, the May primaries in Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Nebraska and West Virginia could favor the moderates (likely Biden by now), although Sanders did well in these places in 2016, but the June primaries in New Jersey, DC, Montana, South Dakota, New Mexico, Virgin Islands favor Bernie.

Monday, March 2
California Democratic Primary USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 35, Bloomberg 16, Biden 14, Warren 12, Buttigieg 7, Klobuchar 5, Steyer 3, Gabbard 3
Sanders +19

[Eric the Green]

(03-01-2020, 08:08 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Buttcheat's gone *breathing huge sigh of relief*

Little Boy Pete is gone for now. I hope he runs for Senate in Indiana.

I think he trimmed Biden's leads a bit in the South, but also Bernie's in the north.

I posted somewhere (see above) that I saw him blocked for Super Tuesday. With little black support in the South, doing badly in CA, and the two major northern states being the home state of 2 of his rivals, with bad poll numbers for him, I did not see him getting anywhere. Pete must have seen this too.

Well, there are now 6 candidates left, and none of them have a negative horoscope score!

Democratic Presidential Nomination poll average, with horoscope scores:
Sanders 29.6 14-7
Biden 18.8 14-7
Bloomberg 16.4 7-5
Warren 11.8 8-7
Buttigieg 11.0 dropped out
Klobuchar 4.0 7-7
Steyer 2.6 dropped out
Gabbard 1.4 11-6

Sanders +10.8

Most of the candidates who have dropped out have negative scores.
Pete Buttigieg, 7-8
Kamala Harris, 4-16
Beto O'Rourke, 11-26
Kirsten Gillibrand, 7-13
Cory Booker, 6-7
Marianne Williamson, 13-14
Julian Castro, 8-13
John Hickenlooper, 6-13
Jay Inslee, 3-7
Andrew Yang, 8-15
Tim Ryan, 3-12
Mike Gravel, 5-10
Eric Swalwell, 4-6
Seth Moulton, 9-10
Michael Bennet, 8-9
Joe Sestak, 3-10

Candidates with positive scores who have dropped out:
Tom Steyer, 11-7
Deval Patrick, 9-6
Steve Bullock, 10-7
John Delaney, 7-5
Wayne Messam, 15-8 (unknown mayor of FL town)

Republicans:
Donald Trump, 9-4
William Weld, 8-13 J
Mark Sanford, 5-7 (dropped out)
Joe Walsh, 11-13

Howard Schultz (independent), 9-18 (not confirmed as a candidate yet)

[pbrower2a]

Pete Buttigieg dropped out.

Don't worry. I expect to see him get a cabinet position or challenge for elective office Governor of Indiana? US Senate? His political career is anything but over.

He has a long window of opportunity in American politics. So he is in Indiana, where liberals have little chance in winning statewide officers? If the upcoming Regeneracy discredits the mirror-image Marxism of the American Hard Right, then Indiana becomes much more amenable to economic liberalism.

He could be the first President from the Millennial Generation.

[Eric the Green]

(03-02-2020, 09:05 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Pete Buttigieg dropped out.

Don't worry. I expect to see him get a cabinet position or challenge for elective office  Governor of Indiana? US Senate? His political career is anything but over.

He has a long window of opportunity in American politics. So he is in Indiana, where liberals have little chance in winning statewide officers? If the upcoming Regeneracy discredits the mirror-image Marxism of the American Hard Right, then Indiana becomes much more amenable to economic liberalism.  

He could be the first President from the Millennial Generation.

Yes I agree with your first two paragraphs. His negative horoscope score indicates his presidential hopes are dim for life.

Democratic Presidential Nomination

• Sanders28.5
  
  
• Biden20.0
  
  
• Bloomberg15.0
  
  
• Warren14.0
  
  
• Buttigieg9.8
  
  
• Klobuchar4.8
  
  
• Steyer2.3
  
  
• Gabbard1.3
  

Sanders +8.5

Monday March 2 polls reported on real clear politics:
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination IBD/TIPP Sanders 23, Biden 20, Warren 17, Bloomberg 13, Buttigieg 7, Klobuchar 6, Steyer, Gabbard
Sanders +3
California Democratic Primary Emerson Sanders 38, Biden 21, Warren 16, Bloomberg 11, Buttigieg 7, Klobuchar 5, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1
Sanders +17
Texas Democratic Primary Emerson Sanders 31, Biden 26, Bloomberg 16, Warren 14, Buttigieg 5, Klobuchar 4, Gabbard 3, Steyer 2
Sanders +5
North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary High Point Sanders 28, Bloomberg 20, Biden 14, Warren 12, Buttigieg 8, Klobuchar 4, Steyer 4, Gabbard 1
Sanders +8
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...elections/

[Marypoza]

(03-01-2020, 08:08 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Buttcheat's gone *breathing huge sigh of relief*

-- not only is Amy Hoo? out but she has endorsed Groper Joe      so much 4 Gurlll Powah l guess

[ResidentArtist]

(03-02-2020, 01:53 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(03-01-2020, 08:08 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Buttcheat's gone *breathing huge sigh of relief*

-- not only is Amy Hoo? out but she has endorsed Groper Joe      so much 4 Gurlll Powah l guess

Joe Biden's victory in South Carolina has cemented his status as the "establishment candidate." The drop outs recently are them rallying around an alternative to Bernie Sanders, and Bloomberg will do the same if his hopes for Super Tuesday don't pan out.

The race is being reduced to what it was in the earliest stages of the primaries, a battle between Biden and Sanders.