Election 2020

[Eric the Green]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/

[Bob Butler 54]

According to a CNN article, Trump has again recommended that his followers in the election try to vote twice in the upcoming election, once by mail, and once in person.  This is a federal crime and is a felony in most states including North Carolina, the state in which he is running the virtual rally where he made the recommendation.

I wouldn't particularly recommend it.  They should in theory catch it, charge you in court, and you would like most felons have trouble getting certain jobs.  Among other things, felons lose the right to keep and bear arms.

I think it would be silly to try, but then the red folks follow his COVID related advice...

[Isoko]

Actually over the last few days, I really do think that Trump is going to lose this fight to Joe Biden. If it is true what he said about the military dead and veterans is true, Trump is pretty much finished to a blue landslide as not even the hard core right wingers CNA tolerate that. Plus he continues to bury himself with the postal vote scandal.

However, there is only two ways that Trump can still pull this off. First is the debates. Biden has to show up to all three debates and show he is leadership material. If he backs down, sends in Kamala or performs poorly, Trump can come out of this looking strong.

Second is BLM/ANTIFA. I'm reading more reports of killings performed by these groups. America just had the Kyle Rittenhouse saga. If anything major blows up and it really does show they have created an atrocity of some kind, the Dems better take a huge harsh stand on it, otherwise Trump will capitalise.

Otherwise, I think Trump is toast. Even I am starting to go off him as the whole veteran thing and postal voting is a step too far for even me.

[Bob Butler 54]

(09-05-2020, 08:21 AM)Isoko Wrote: Actually over the last few days, I really do think that Trump is going to lose this fight to Joe Biden. If it is true what he said about the military dead and veterans is true, Trump is pretty much finished to a blue landslide as not even the hard core right wingers CNA tolerate that. Plus he continues to bury himself with the postal vote scandal...

Yah.  It is getting hard to see Trump as the good guy.

CNA?  I had to look that one up on the network.  Certified Nursing Assistant?  

[Eric the Green]

The narrowest possible Biden win:
(the blue states here currently are the states with the highest poll-average percentage in favor of Biden)



Supposing this situation arises, if Nebraska District 2 votes for Trump, the electoral vote will be tied.

First of all, then the issue of faithless electors may arise. 8 states permit faithless electors that may belong to Biden: TX GA PA NH (if Biden wins those states, only NH in this scenario) plus NY NJ RI IL (likely Biden states).

11 states prohibit faithless electors, but without any penalty or change in the vote:
WI OH FL (if Biden carries these, only WI in this scenario) plus VA MD DE CT MA VT HI OR (likely Biden states).

If even one of these delegates switches to Trump (with no contrary switch) Trump wins.

https://www.fairvote.org/faithless_elector_state_laws

If the electoral vote is still tied, the House votes by state. That gives the advantage to Trump. Currently 26 states have majority Republican delegations, 23 Democratic, and 1 tie.

PA is tied, with one Republican departing. If this seat switches to Democratic in the 2020 election, that makes 24 Democratic states.

Florida is +1 Republican (14-13) with 3 departing Republican members. If one of these seats switches in the 2020 election, the state becomes Democratic and the House vote is tied. Someone in any state would have to break with their party and vote to break the tie.

Wisconsin has a 5-3 Republican majority, with one departing Republican member. This and one other seat would have to switch in the 2020 elections in this gerrymandered state in order for the Democrats to win the House vote.

Texas has 22-15 Republican, with 7 departing Republican members. If 4 of them switch parties in the 2020 election in this gerrymandered state, the Democrats would get another delegation.

Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona have precarious Democratic majorities.

https://projects.propublica.org/represent/states

[pbrower2a]

My estimates for the results for intermediate probabilities based on near-linear differentials  for three and two months out.

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months......|...55%|....72%|........87%|......98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

I can only estimate the value of margins between 1 and 5, 5 and 10, and 10 and 20 with estimates of differentials. and then using other differentials for interpolation between 1 and 3 months.  


lead  likelihood, three months and two months

0   50    50  10  87  91
1   55    56  11  88  92
2   59    64  12  89  93
3   64    69  13  90  94
4   69    73  14  91  95
5   72    77  15  92  96
6   76    78  16  93  97
7   80    80  17  94   97
8   83    84  18  95  97
9   85    87  19  96  97

Note that the probability that a leader wins more precipitously at 5% (9% delta) than at 1 (2% delta), so the increase from my estimate at three months cannot be linear in the range between a 1% and a 5% lead.

Now my estimates based on very recent polling (after the Party conventions), mostly in States decided by 10% or less in 2016 (today those are the only states). Numbers are percentage likelihood of a Biden win:



NC (Monmouth) Biden +2 (64%)
FL  (Quinnipiac) Biden +3 (69%)
PA  (Quinnipiac) Biden +8 (84%)
WI  (FoX News) Biden +8  (84%)
AZ  (FoX News) Biden +9  (87%)
NV (University of Nevada) Biden +5 (77%)
TX (Morning Consult) Trump +1 (44%)

CO (Morning Consult) Biden +10 (91%) -- new September 1
MI (Hodas) Biden +11 (92%)
MN (PPP) Biden +8 (84%)
TX (it is a D poll) Biden +3. Average with Morning Consult and you get +1 (56%)

Biden 0-4% saturation 8
Biden 5-20% saturation 6
Biden 21-35% saturation 5
Biden 36-40% saturation 4
Biden 41-49% saturation 2

50/50 white

Biden 51-60% saturation 2
Biden 61-70% saturation 4
Biden 71-80% saturation 5
Biden 81-95% saturation 6
Biden 95%+ saturation 8

With Texas shifted as barely as I can into positive territory for Biden, I can easily imagine a 400-EV win for Biden. COVID-19 has begun to hit Texas hard, and Trump has mangled the response to COVID-19 badly. This may explain the horrid poll for Trump in Arizona that seems anomalous. FoX News does and gets good polling even if its broadcasts are mostly right-wing propaganda. 

....This is different from approval and disapproval. Disapproval above a certain level kills a politician's chances of winning a place (in this case a State)


Here are some approval/disapproval polls. This pollster may not be completely accurate; no polling is demonstrably perfect. 

Civiqs - thru 9/2

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 43/55 (-12)
Arizona: 43/53 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-22)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Kansas: 52/45 (+7)
Maine: 37/60 (-23)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 39/58 (-19)
Montana: 47/50 (-3)
Nevada: 36/60 (-24)
New Hampshire: 37/58 (-21)
New Mexico: 43/54 (-11)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 50/48 (+2)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 38/59 (-21)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...oomIn=true

It is difficult, if not impossible, to win a state in which one has 50% disapproval. It is nearly impossible to win a state in which one has 52% disapproval. Beyond 52%? Basically, forget it unless something weird is going on like a three-way election  or an opponent mired in a major scandal. In that zone the results might be close, but you know the saying: close matters only with horseshoes, hand grenades, and atomic explosions. 

I find the Alaska number astonishing... Most of the rest isn't. That may say something about Alaska (how do you say "Press '4' for Inuit" in Inuit?) polling.

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN has several boats sinking that were flying Trump flags in demonstrations of support. It seems appropriate somehow for the boats to be sinking if they were sailing for Trump. Trump is sinking just as fast.

[Bob Butler 54]

"Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You ruined my country. Prepare to die."

If it wasn't enough to have the US military mad at you, would you want this guy mad at you too?  CNN reports The Princess Bride cast reunites to oppose Trump.

Just for the record, I am not left handed either.

[linus]

Just in: this exclusive photo from Biden campaign headquarters (it's purely metaphorical, of course).

[Bob Butler 54]

While Sully, the pilot of the Miracle on the Hudson fame, is not as prone to violence as the fictional Inigo Montoya, he is joining the chorus.

[pbrower2a]

Trump is down 15% in New Mexico and has only 39% approval there. Past the event horizon by now.

[David Horn]

(09-05-2020, 08:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN has several boats sinking that were flying Trump flags in demonstrations of support.  It seems appropriate somehow for the boats to be sinking if they were sailing for Trump.  Trump is sinking just as fast.

I was nearly swamped by a TrumParade™ on our lake a few weeks back. They were traveling as many as 10 abreast on a relatively narrow section of the lake channel.  We were among the very few traveling the other way.  They did swamp and disable several PWCs that were simply too small to tolerate the mayhem.  The flotilla just rolled on.

[Bob Butler 54]

(09-07-2020, 08:12 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(09-05-2020, 08:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN has several boats sinking that were flying Trump flags in demonstrations of support.  It seems appropriate somehow for the boats to be sinking if they were sailing for Trump.  Trump is sinking just as fast.

I was nearly swamped by a TrumParade™ on our lake a few weeks back. They were traveling as many as 10 abreast on a relatively narrow section of the lake channel.  We were among the very few traveling the other way.  They did swamp and disable several PWCs that were simply too small to tolerate the mayhem.  The flotilla just rolled on.

CNN has an updated article on the Trump Boat Parade.  Apparently they just proceed in formation without caring about how that puts others at risk or providing help to boats left in distress.  Perhaps another reflection on Trump.

I know there is a tradition that a sitting president cannot be indicted, but I did not hear that supporting a president repeals the Law of the Sea.

[Eric the Green]

Fivethirtyeight presidential election poll averages for Sept.8 about midnight.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +7.5
Arizona Biden +4.6
Colorado Biden +12.1
Florida Biden +2.7
Georgia Trump +1.5
Iowa Trump +1.6
Kansas Trump +9.3
Michigan Biden +6.6
Minnesota Biden +6.2
Missouri Trump +6.5
Montana Trump +8.6
Nevada Biden +6.4
New Hampshire Biden +8.2
North Carolina Biden +1.8
Ohio Trump +1.9
Pennsylvania Biden +4.4
South Carolina Trump +6.7
Texas Trump +1.1
Utah Trump +11.5
Virginia Biden +10.8
Wisconsin Biden +7.5

[Bob Butler 54]

After five days, MSNBC is taking their air time away mostly from Trump calling the military 'looters and suckers', and taken some time off to feature the latest anti Trump tell all book.  This time it is Michael Cohen's Disloyal.  It seems that Trump is an awful fellow.

Tell us something we don't know?

[David Horn]

(09-08-2020, 10:28 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: After five days, MSNBC is taking their air time away mostly from Trump calling the military 'looters and suckers', and taken some time off to feature the latest anti Trump tell all book.  This time it is Michael Cohen's Disloyal.  It seems that Trump is an awful fellow.

Tell us something we don't know?

According to Cohen, the "Meatballs" at his prison (seemingly most of the inmates) are big fans of Rachel Maddow, hence his hour-long exclusive interview with her.

[Eric the Green]

Better day today on 538. Biden goes up a 10th of a point nationally, and while WI falls to Biden +7 even, Michigan moves up to +7.4, Florida goes back to +2.8, and AZ and PA are at +5. Trump's lead in Ohio falls to 0.9.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
4:49 PM EDT

[Bob Butler 54]

(09-09-2020, 12:25 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 10:28 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: After five days, MSNBC is taking their air time away mostly from Trump calling the military 'looters and suckers', and taken some time off to feature the latest anti Trump tell all book.  This time it is Michael Cohen's Disloyal.  It seems that Trump is an awful fellow.

Tell us something we don't know?

According to Cohen, the "Meatballs" at his prison (seemingly most of the inmates) are big fans of Rachel Maddow, hence his hour-long exclusive interview with her.

I suppose that if Trump is picking up the KKK and Neo Nazi, we should be stuck with the meatballs?

If we get some of the kind of meatballs that are good with red sauce and pasta, I am for it.  

[pbrower2a]

(09-09-2020, 05:41 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(09-09-2020, 12:25 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(09-08-2020, 10:28 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: After five days, MSNBC is taking their air time away mostly from Trump calling the military 'looters and suckers', and taken some time off to feature the latest anti Trump tell all book.  This time it is Michael Cohen's Disloyal.  It seems that Trump is an awful fellow.

Tell us something we don't know?

According to Cohen, the "Meatballs" at his prison (seemingly most of the inmates) are big fans of Rachel Maddow, hence his hour-long exclusive interview with her.

I suppose that if Trump is picking up the KKK and Neo Nazi, we should be stuck with the meatballs?

If we get some of the kind of meatballs that are good with red sauce and pasta, I am for it.  

Rachel Maddow  has an excellent figure for a woman approaching 50... her TV show is on twice most nights (once live and once repeated), so she gets much exposure. She may have never looked like a high-fashion model, but she probably looks much better than the few women that male cons see most often.

..........

Michael Cohen got tripped up by violating one of the most basic rules of legal ethics: do not be a criminal in your own right -- and its corollary in the demand that one not become complicit in a client's offenses. Not many people can squeeze an attorney into doing something unlawful, but Trump did.   

Good people do not get others into legal, financial, or medical trouble on their behalf.  Donald Trump does. Therefore Donald Trump is not a good person.

[Classic-Xer]

(09-05-2020, 08:21 AM)Isoko Wrote: Actually over the last few days, I really do think that Trump is going to lose this fight to Joe Biden. If it is true what he said about the military dead and veterans is true, Trump is pretty much finished to a blue landslide as not even the hard core right wingers CNA tolerate that. Plus he continues to bury himself with the postal vote scandal.

However, there is only two ways that Trump can still pull this off. First is the debates. Biden has to show up to all three debates and show he is leadership material. If he backs down, sends in Kamala or performs poorly, Trump can come out of this looking strong.

Second is BLM/ANTIFA. I'm reading more reports of killings performed by these groups. America just had the Kyle Rittenhouse saga. If anything major blows up and it really does show they have created an atrocity of some kind, the Dems better take a huge harsh stand on it, otherwise Trump will capitalise.

Otherwise, I think Trump is toast. Even I am starting to go off him as the whole veteran thing and postal voting is a step too far for even me.

Dude, it's obvious that Trump is the better/stronger leader and it's obvious that Biden is playing second fiddle to him and on the defensive at this point. So, it's a matter of how much the Democratic party is able to protect Biden and cheat and get away with it without triggering a civil war that the Washington elite ( the people that the vast majority of Americans don't like, don't trust and could careless if the all disappeared that Trump refers to as the swamp and Pelosi formerly referred to as the carousel of corruption) will be powerless to stop at that point. I've telling the out of touch bimbo's who into denial and wishful thinking and sharing values and worldviews associated with a heavenly world that doesn't exist at this point. Also, it's coming down to the over all strength and commitment of the political bases as well.