What the next First Turning won't be like

[pbrower2a]

It will in no way resemble Donald Trump's sick dream!

[David Horn]

(11-05-2020, 08:46 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: As usual we have conflicting indicators of how things will go. The Republican Party continues to depend upon Hillary Clinton's "Basket of Deplorables" -- people dim-witted enough to see "deplorable" as a badge of honor...

Far to many of the Trump Squad are affluent and well educated.  What they see is a man who will take no prisoners, and they like that.  It doesn't really matter whether he's doing good or ill.  It's all about him taking to the opposition they hate.

[pbrower2a]

Politics will no longer be the "Donald Trump Show".

[Tim Randal Walker]

As I have indicated in the past, I think that-this time around-a weak 1T is the best case scenario.

I wouldn't necessarily refer to a 1T as a "High". Consider countries for which the 4T had gone badly.

If the next 1T should reach the height of a weak 1T, I suspect that it will seem a blank period for those of us acquainted with generational theory. Definitely not one of the great barbecues of history.

But even a weak 1T would likely be welcomed by many, as relief from turmoil.

Of course, eventually people will tire of the 1T, and welcome the start of a new Awakening. (Which gives me something to look forward to in my old age).

[Tim Randal Walker]

Repeating myself.....

Trying to be optimistic about the future.......

1. Crisis of 2020. (weak and/or non-standard 4T?). 2. Weak 1T? 3. Awakening (likely of the Apollo type). 4. Unraveling. 5. Projected Crisis of 2100. 6. "High"? 7. Awakening (likely Dionysus type).

With number 7 I am projecting about a century into the future, based on the double rhythm. Trying to project beyond that starts to seem like science fiction.

(Note-some countries may have a double rhythm that is reversed to the USA, so their next 2T may be of the Dionysus type).

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-02-2020, 05:18 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Repeating myself.....  

Trying to be optimistic about the future.......

1.  Crisis of 2020. (weak and/or non-standard 4T?).   2.  Weak 1T?   3.  Awakening (likely of the Apollo type).  4.  Unraveling.   5.  Projected Crisis of 2100.  6.  "High"?   7.  Awakening (likely Dionysus type).

With number 7 I am projecting about a century into the future, based on the double rhythm.  Trying to project beyond that starts to seem like science fiction.

(Note-some countries may have a double rhythm that is reversed to the USA, so their next 2T may be of the Dionysus type).

I am sticking with #1.  A crisis in the Industrial Age generally centered on a crisis war.  With crisis wars becomming very rare for major powers in the Information Age, the crisis has to be unusual by Industrial Age standards.  If you are not into the age aspect of viewing history, you would expect the older pattern to continue.  As is, COVID and the Black Lives Matter issues did create something very like an Industrial Age crisis, but either or both might not have happened.  

I was looking at a crisis alignment of generations following a long and obvious unravelling going by with no trigger, no regeneracy.  That didn't happen.  But obviously, you can't expect Information Age crises to be just like an Industrial Age one.  Nukes, proxy wars and insurgencies have contributed to making profit from violence obsolete by major powers.  That invalidates the turning patterns.  To continue the pattern you need a different sort of trigger, a different kind of crisis.  At that, I suspect the awakening and legislation will yield a greater change in the culture than the crisis.  It is still a bit early to confirm that is happening.

[David Horn]

(12-06-2020, 06:45 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(12-02-2020, 05:18 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Repeating myself.....  

Trying to be optimistic about the future.......

1.  Crisis of 2020. (weak and/or non-standard 4T?).   2.  Weak 1T?   3.  Awakening (likely of the Apollo type).  4.  Unraveling.   5.  Projected Crisis of 2100.  6.  "High"?   7.  Awakening (likely Dionysus type).

With number 7 I am projecting about a century into the future, based on the double rhythm.  Trying to project beyond that starts to seem like science fiction.

(Note-some countries may have a double rhythm that is reversed to the USA, so their next 2T may be of the Dionysus type).

I am sticking with #1.  A crisis in the Industrial Age generally centered on a crisis war.  With crisis wars becomming very rare for major powers in the Information Age, the crisis has to be unusual by Industrial Age standards.  If you are not into the age aspect of viewing history, you would expect the older pattern to continue.  As is, COVID and the Black Lives Matter issues did create something very like an Industrial Age crisis, but either or both might not have happened.  

I was looking at a crisis alignment of generations following a long and obvious unravelling going by with no trigger, no regeneracy.  That didn't happen.  But obviously, you can't expect Information Age crises to be just like an Industrial Age one.  Nukes, proxy wars and insurgencies have contributed to making profit from violence obsolete by major powers.  That invalidates the turning patterns.  To continue the pattern you need a different sort of trigger, a different kind of crisis.  At that, I suspect the awakening and legislation will yield a greater change in the culture than the crisis.  It is still a bit early to confirm that is happening.

The real issues are still out there getting little serious attention: AGW and economic inequality.  Yes, COVID is the most serious at the moment, but it's already being addressed.  Social issues including race and class are perpetual, and may be on a down-trending cycle.  It's hard to know for sure when the public nerve is still throbbing, but let's hope that's true.  Nothing else will get a hearing until that occurs.  

But AGW is existential, and inequality has a history of creating real havoc -- just ask the Bourbons and the Romanovs.  Both are being pushed off the front page, and the political climate makes it unlikely they will reemerge until a serious event forces the issue.  If that's decades in the future, the result will be highly dangerous for everyone.

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-06-2020, 11:58 AM)David Horn Wrote: The real issues are still out there getting little serious attention: AGW and economic inequality.  Yes, COVID is the most serious at the moment, but it's already being addressed.  Social issues including race and class are perpetual, and may be on a down-trending cycle.  It's hard to know for sure when the public nerve is still throbbing, but let's hope that's true.  Nothing else will get a hearing until that occurs.  

But AGW is existential, and inequality has a history of creating real havoc -- just ask the Bourbons and the Romanovs.  Both are being pushed off the front page, and the political climate makes it unlikely they will reemerge until a serious event forces the issue.  If that's decades in the future, the result will be highly dangerous for everyone.

I am hoping the Republicans don't obstruct or are not in a position to obstruct violent police loosing their immunity and move against structural racism.  That would let the violence associated with the protests fade.  I have a feeling, though, that should the obstruction continue the protests will return with the warmer weather.

I expect the economy will be in very rough shape due to COVD, and Biden will have no choice but to make the rich pay their fair share of taxes.  Whether they rethink the economy is another question.

AGW?  I expect some steps will be taken, but they will be not enough due to COVID's ruining of the economy.  Yah, we could have quite the awakening.  The new prophets will have lots to complain about.  The new version of America First might build in the unravelling, with attempts to claim exclusive use of a good size chunk of the world's resources by a small portion of its population.

[pbrower2a]

What will be missing?

1. Speculative booms. There are plenty of other legitimate ways to seek a living, most of them honorable and requiring some form of work. Speculative booms are really catastrophes in the making, but that does not seem so obvious to people see them as the Only Game in Town.

2. Shock jocks. There was Joe Pyne and there was Morton Downey, Jr. ... but the likes of Rash Libel and Sean Hannity are finding their once-large audiences trickle away. Like Howard Stern (who seems not to be so political) they get boring over time.

3. You fill in.

[pbrower2a]

(12-02-2020, 04:32 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: As I have indicated in the past, I think that-this time around-a weak 1T is the best case scenario.

I wouldn't necessarily refer to a 1T as a "High".  Consider countries for which the 4T had gone badly.

Those "Highs" would seem to have repression and conformity to an inordinate degree (I think of Franco's Spain and all countries that came under Soviet domination as the result of the Second World War). The difference between the Bundesrepublik and the DDR fit that description.  

Quote:If the next 1T should reach the height of a weak 1T, I suspect that it will seem a blank period for those of us acquainted with generational theory.  Definitely not one of the great barbecues of history.

I am tempted to believe that instead of a shooting war we have COVID-19. Even if comparatively few Americans send up in uniform and with military discipline, most of us who will survive will have taken due precautions to avoid the Plague of Donald Trump. 

This Crisis could have ended badly had Donald Trump gotten his way. We all heard the angry, vile rhetoric. We saw the President egg on racists and religious bigots. We saw a personality cult. We even saw the first stages of a politicized secret police, the sorts of people who appear in Chevy Suburbans or similar vehicles with a US flag on one side and a Trump banner on the other. We heard the President attack alleged backsliders on his Side.

(The unwritten Dictator's Playbook  states -- first persecute and even liquidate those who were on the wrong side of the "revolution". Trump missed that. If this 4T should culminate in an American dictatorship, then one can expect the torture chambers, labor camps, and shooting pits first fill with ideological enemies because the person and Party that puts an end to American democracy will have learned some lessons from Trump through his failures.     

Quote:But even a weak 1T would likely be welcomed by many, as relief from turmoil.

 

I predict that we will see changes in the way that we pay people and treat people at work. Crowding people at workplaces is one way to get cheap poultry, but it costs lives in the time of a plague. Much that seems old and stale will vanish, but paradoxically that will be to a large extent the accretions of bad habits from the 3T. Business will be more tightly regulated to prevent scams like Enrob in the late 1990's and the pervasive fraud in the lending and real estate businesses in the Double-Zero Decade. Availability of such things as real estate will matter more than (often artificial and shaky) appreciation. 

Also -- America's model minorities could be the heroes of the preservation of American democracy. They all collectively picked liberty over economic gain and getting treated less badly than others. Model minorities are the people most vulnerable when democracy dies (German Jews are the prime example, and think of what the fascistic 1915 Klan would have done to American Jews had it had the chance). See also kulaks in Russia.

Quote:Of course, eventually people will tire of the 1T, and welcome the start of a new Awakening.  (Which gives me something to look forward to in my old age).

Something is changing. We now typically have four active adult generations at one time. This may mute the worst features of any era. Maybe this 4T lacks the ferocity of the last one because the Silent are still around in their eighties and late seventies. Maybe President Joe Biden will not quite fit the model of a Lincoln/FDR/Churchill sort of leader any more than President Barack Obama did. This said, Boomers had their chance, and the Boom achievements through the President range from mediocre (Clinton) to poor (Dubya) to horrid (Trump). 

People are living longer because they are staying physically and mentally active longer if they have a chance. People have more likely quit smoking; they are controlling their weight; they even drink less. They may be drinking less alcohol, but they might excuse that by saying that they are drinking better alcohol.  The elderly are finding ways to use computers. People who can keep working do so.

Fads and crazes from the 3T are particularly likely to die. People tire of them because they are empty from the start, even if superficially attractive at first. Recall that there has been a strong nostalgia market for every decade from the 1930's to ... well, at least the 1970's. I am old enough (I reach the Big Bad Six-Five one week from today --- and it will be the weirdest birthday in my life because my sole companion will be a cat. My brother will be  about fifty miles north of New York City, so guess where I expect him to be between weeks on the job. Damn, I can't think of a better place to be for a Big Six-Five than the Big Apple... and I have never been there. Oh, do I know where to go. Museums, museums, and museums).

Maybe I will go to Chicago instead, which is within a day trip for me.       

Going into the 1940's, there were relatively few people (from the Progressive Generation) in their eighties. Professor John Dewey was one of comparatively few. Some Missionary adults like Helen Keller did put off going into "That Good Night", but note well that the Lost (who I guess were the heaviest smokers in American history) either did not reach advanced age or got incarcerated in some "Home for the Golden Years" (talk about commercial Newspeak) out of some convenience for their kids (America on the move, making cross-country moves for an employer or seeking to 'find themselves'; old people could make that tricky.  Some of the Lost were prosperous enough to buy reruns the cultural detritus of the 1920's... but they didn't. Did you notice that I said "detritus"? Aside from the last silent movies and some interesting music and literature, maybe a little art... the pop culture was awful. The 1920's really were a slum of a decade with their speculative bubble, amoral hedonism, "scientific" racism (the term was eugenics), corporate-welfare-state politics, and the monstrous KKK. The Harlem Renaissance? Fine. The Tulsa riot (by white people against successful blacks in 1921?) Damn! Does anyone want to question whether Kowards, Kooks, and Killers weren't behind it? (Note how I spelled the word "cowards").

[Eric the Green]

Our 4T featured a polarized nation and stalemate through most of the way, which closely resembles the 4T of circa 1850-1865. I expect the next 1T won't be the total consensus and victory lap that the American High was, but more like the gilded age era when activism still boiled over to some extent and resentments over the recent 4T continued. If our 4T does not reduce inequality very much, then our next 1T will resemble the Gilded Age in its inequality as well. The double rhythm applies.

The next 2T will resemble the last one, because astrologically it will be the first time that virtually the same planetary aspect opens it, and a bit early at that. The Uranus Pluto opposition of circa 2047 will fulfill the conjunction of circa 1966 and bring that cycle of revolution to its peak. I call it the climax of the Green Revolution. Nevertheless, the next 2T will be calmer and less extreme in its cultural expression, and in the 2050s will feature intellectual and artistic trends resembling some of those of the 1900s.

[David Horn]

(12-07-2020, 01:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The next 2T will resemble the last one, because astrologically it will be the first time that virtually the same planetary aspect opens it, and a bit early at that. The Uranus Pluto opposition of circa 2047 will fulfill the conjunction of circa 1966 and bring that cycle of revolution to its peak. I call it the climax of the Green Revolution. Nevertheless, the next 2T will be calmer and less extreme in its cultural expression, and in the 2050s will feature intellectual and artistic trends resembling some of those of the 1900s.

I know your logic in reaching those predictions, but the issues queuing up right now are external, so the 2T can't have the internal focus of the last one.  The Missionaries are a more likely model, though even there, times have moved on.  The rising challenges are existential.  The 2T will make that brutally obvious to anyone not already convinced and ready to do something about it.

[Tim Randal Walker]

It occurred to me that if the next 1T should be weak, it might not even get a name. "Millennial High" wouldn't fit. On the other hand, the post-CW 1T-a dubious period-has been referred to as the Gilded Age.

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-17-2020, 09:50 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: It occurred to me that if the next 1T should be weak, it might not even get a name.  "Millennial High" wouldn't fit.  On the other hand, the post-CW  1T-a dubious period-has been referred to as the Gilded Age.

Come to think of it, the last high didn't have much of an explicit name.  The Cold War was at its height.  It saw the last remnant's of Hollywood's golden age.  With most economies hurt bad because of the war and an end to colonialism, the US had an economic golden age.  Elvis and Rock n Roll were taking off.  While the era was distinctive enough, was there really a name?

If highs are associated with infrastructure building, a name would perhaps go with that.  The Second Space Age, with the Starship and New Glenn being at the center?  Could fusion be finally made to work, with a rush to it to beat down the greenhouse emissions?  Could one of Pope Xenakis's wars of the week finally take off?

[TnT]

I'm not seeing indications that this 4T is near its end. Nominally, we could easily have another 5-10 years of it and it would still fit within the 80 year cycles.

Unless the fever-brained Right somehow changes their minds, abandons their belief systems, I don't think we know yet who will prevail, what compromises will be necessary to calm things down. Ya have the gun-nut cowards, the Religious radicals, the white nationalists and the lower-grade "slightly racist" low information folks in a loose coalition.

Let's say that the divisiveness continues for a few years. Secession could be on the table. David French's book "Divided We Fall" is a good read. I think he leans a bit too hard to the Right, but he may well be directionally correct that there is WAY more pulling us apart right now than there is bringing us back together. That is not a good thing.

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-17-2020, 11:16 PM)TnT Wrote: I'm not seeing indications that this 4T is near its end.  Nominally, we could easily have another 5-10 years of it and it would still fit within the 80 year cycles.  

Unless the fever-brained Right somehow changes their minds, abandons their belief systems, I don't think we know yet who will prevail, what compromises will be necessary to calm things down.  Ya have the gun-nut cowards, the Religious radicals, the white nationalists and the lower-grade "slightly racist" low information folks in a loose coalition.  

Let's say that the divisiveness continues for a few years.  Secession could be on the table.  David French's book "Divided We Fall" is a good read.  I think he leans a bit too hard to the Right, but he may well be directionally correct that there is WAY more pulling us apart right now than there is bringing us back together.  That is not a good thing.

The crisis problems seem to be on the Democratic agenda.  Solving the bug, the violent racist policing and systematic racism, some degree of environmentalism, all seem like they could be handled fairly quickly.  The economic ruin caused by the weak Trump response to COVID might linger.  On economics, I don't know about timing.

But I doubt Trump is going away.  Maybe his legal and debt problems will haunt him.  Maybe what is currently his base will fall in love with somebody else.  Easy come, easy go.  I suspect also the deep state has been taking notes, and things Trump has been keeping secret will be exposed after Biden's people get in.  Maybe Trump will remain dominant among the Republican base and still make some trouble for the establishment and the real conservatives.

But I don't see succession as overly likely.  Everyone has gone with democracy to this point.  The weaknesses of Trump are obvious.

The key is how well the problems the Republicans worked so hard to ignore can be fixed by a Biden administration.  If he addresses the crisis problems, if the Republicans are still divided by Trump holding the base and in position to blackmail the establishment, the Democrats should be in a good position in 2024.  The mess Trump made of the 2020 elections and COVID response could bring on an early never again phase, with the elections streamlined and World Health Organization given more pandemic fighting power.  I can certainly see the US government scientists being protected more from being silenced by political appointees.

Thus, maybe a crisis end by around 2024?

I don't see one of Pope Xenakis's wars of the week as delaying the crisis end.  There are better ways for the leaders and elites to gain wealth and power than through violence.  I could be wrong there.  Xenophobia is abundant.  Brinkmanship does make leaders popular.  With so many dancing on the brink, someone might miscalculate.  But, still, there have been no crisis wars by major powers in the Information Age.

[pbrower2a]

(12-02-2020, 05:18 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Repeating myself.....  

Trying to be optimistic about the future.......

1.  Crisis of 2020. (weak and/or non-standard 4T?).   2.  Weak 1T?   3.  Awakening (likely of the Apollo type).  4.  Unraveling.   5.  Projected Crisis of 2100.  6.  "High"?   7.  Awakening (likely Dionysus type).

With number 7 I am projecting about a century into the future, based on the double rhythm.  Trying to project beyond that starts to seem like science fiction.

(Note-some countries may have a double rhythm that is reversed to the USA, so their next 2T may be of the Dionysus type).

1. COVID-19 looks like the Crisis event, as it causes mass death on the scale of a costly war. 

2. That depends on whether Americans largely renounce the worst aspects of the recent Unraveling or institutionalize them. It will be a sordid 1T, and so will be the rest of the upcoming cycle, should America fully accept the Reagan-Trump ethos in which the sole purpose of life is to reward those already rich and the culture goes completely commercial and low-brow.

3. This depends upon the consensus of cultural identity emerges at the end of the Crisis of 2020. My guess that the optimum for an economic elite that wants a reactionary world view would sponsor country music and hagiographic treatments of the economic elites. (Yuck!) Such would surely inspire a reaction that brings about the diametric opposite, which would be brainy, international, antiquarian, and anti-rich. Count in such a case for an era of major reforms.

4. Way too early except to express what sort of world emerges in a 3T: hedonistic, materialistic, mindless, and inequitable. Unraveling eras always end in political and economic ruin. 

5. Global warming could about then culminate in horrific levels of economic and social distress, especially if food supplies dwindle with an increasing population. Such could bring about Hitler-like leaders all over the world... even in America!  

Our world must either reverse, halt, or greatly slow global warming just to prevent disruption in the food supply about 60 years from now. America, as one of the biggest consumers of energy, must greatly reduce its use of fossil fuels. Let's recognize this reality: however much we take our food supply for granted, our bounty of food production is closely tied to climatic realities of temperature and precipitation. Unpleasant as a blizzard may be, farmers need them for some of the richest crops of grain in the world. There is no technological fix for hunger, but there is one reliable social fix: mass death on a scale that none of us can excuse.

[David Horn]

(12-17-2020, 11:16 PM)TnT Wrote: I'm not seeing indications that this 4T is near its end.  Nominally, we could easily have another 5-10 years of it and it would still fit within the 80 year cycles.  

Unless the fever-brained Right somehow changes their minds, abandons their belief systems, I don't think we know yet who will prevail, what compromises will be necessary to calm things down.  Ya have the gun-nut cowards, the Religious radicals, the white nationalists and the lower-grade "slightly racist" low information folks in a loose coalition.  

Let's say that the divisiveness continues for a few years.  Secession could be on the table.  David French's book "Divided We Fall" is a good read.  I think he leans a bit too hard to the Right, but he may well be directionally correct that there is WAY more pulling us apart right now than there is bringing us back together.  That is not a good thing.

Good analysis as always.  If it ever comes to division, it's hard to know how that might occur.  It it's state by state, like it was last time, I'm in a Blue place.  If it's more local, then I'm would be living in the heart of Red America or forced to move.

[Tim Randal Walker]

During my last move a decade ago, I seem to have lost some print outs of (what were then) old posts to the paleo 4T site. As I recall....

The War of the Hats was listed as an Awakening in Sweden. Seems to have had a very external focus. Two important themes: 1. The political system. 2.The economic system. Easy to imagine such a 2T being part of a revolutionary cycle.

There was a 2T in Britain about the same time as the Missionary Awakening in the USA. It seems to have been even weaker or milder than the Missionary Awakening. I believe that two themes were Feminism and Socialism.

[Tim Randal Walker]

In regards to the USA, it seems like that every Awakening includes a religious revival based on traditional religion. Including both Apollo and Dionysus type Awakenings.

So an obvious prediction is that the next 2T will see a religious revival based on traditional religion, whatever the other themes or relative strength of the Awakening.