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What the next First Turning won't be like
#41
(12-30-2020, 05:03 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: In regards to the USA, it seems like that every Awakening includes a religious revival based on traditional religion.   Including  both Apollo and Dionysus type Awakenings.  

So an obvious prediction is that the next 2T will see a religious revival based on traditional religion, whatever the other themes or relative strength of the Awakening.

That seems an easy prediction. But also, the New Thought and New Age kind of religious awakening has been growing in each successive 2T. It was quite strong in the Missionary (aka Third Great) Awakening, in the USA and the UK, with the birth of the New Thought churches, theosophy, the golden dawn, a spiritualism trend, and other such groups.

Please join us: https://www.facebook.com/groups/396877864887524
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#42
(12-30-2020, 04:24 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: During my last move a decade ago, I seem to have lost some print outs of (what were then) old posts to the paleo 4T site.  As I recall....

The War of the Hats was listed as an Awakening in Sweden.  Seems to have had a very external focus.  Two important themes:  1.  The political system.  2.The economic system.  Easy to imagine such a 2T being part of a revolutionary cycle.

There was a 2T in Britain about the same time as the Missionary Awakening in the USA.  It seems to have been even weaker or milder than the Missionary Awakening.  I believe that two themes were Feminism and Socialism.

Feminism and socialism were daring ideas back then. Philosophy, and often not religion, is the essence of some Awakening eras.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#43
(12-30-2020, 08:06 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(12-30-2020, 05:03 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: In regards to the USA, it seems like that every Awakening includes a religious revival based on traditional religion.   Including  both Apollo and Dionysus type Awakenings.  

So an obvious prediction is that the next 2T will see a religious revival based on traditional religion, whatever the other themes or relative strength of the Awakening.

That seems an easy prediction. But also, the New Thought and New Age kind of religious awakening has been growing in each successive 2T. It was quite strong in the Missionary (aka Third Great) Awakening, in the USA and the UK, with the birth of the New Thought churches, theosophy, the golden dawn, a spiritualism trend, and other such groups.

Please join us: https://www.facebook.com/groups/396877864887524

One marked difference in the last Awakening was that the biggest shift in organized religion was a reactionary, anti-rational, anti-scientific thread that claimed to repudiate evolution (or as Jimmy Swaggart called it. "Evil-lution") in favor of a literal understanding of biblical time. Also, of course, offering pie-in-the-sky-when-you-die as a reward for deference to the will of the economic elites.

Here is an irony: the Mountain South was originally Presbyterian, which is mainline Calvinist Protestantism... but a novel trend in fundamentalist "Southern Baptist" churches cannibalized Presbyterianism.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#44
In response to Eric....

In regards to Sorokins cycle, I suspect that we are in a period of "plastic time". I believe that the spiritual currents that you mentioned are consistent with this, as are the continued existence of the old Senate and even older Ideational (in the form of traditional religion) currents.

All this seems to fit with the idea that we are in an in-between time, the transition between two ages. Call it the Interregnum.
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#45
It may well turn out that philosophy and/or ideology may be the primary focus of the next 2T. Which I believe would be consistent with an Apollo 2T and the double rhythm.
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#46
(12-31-2020, 01:05 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(12-30-2020, 04:24 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: During my last move a decade ago, I seem to have lost some print outs of (what were then) old posts to the paleo 4T site.  As I recall....

The War of the Hats was listed as an Awakening in Sweden.  Seems to have had a very external focus.  Two important themes:  1.  The political system.  2.The economic system.  Easy to imagine such a 2T being part of a revolutionary cycle.

There was a 2T in Britain about the same time as the Missionary Awakening in the USA.  It seems to have been even weaker or milder than the Missionary Awakening.  I believe that two themes were Feminism and Socialism.

Feminism and socialism were daring ideas back then. Philosophy, and often not religion, is the essence of some Awakening eras.

Awakenings are times when the heavens open ("the other side"), and people have genuine, blissful and powerful experiences of the divine. Then, it gets interpreted. Some people contact Jesus, and then revert to fanatical religion. Followers join in, hoping the share in the experience. Most probably only get the flavor. The interpretations of these experiences often go beyond the bounds of reason, either into the higher reason (mysticism), or below reason (zealous superstition). Those who don't awaken are left to wonder, look askance and stew about in conventional ways of thinking and believing. The beat goes on.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#47
(01-01-2021, 02:48 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: It may well turn out that philosophy and/or ideology may be the primary focus of the next 2T.  Which I believe would be consistent with an Apollo 2T and the double rhythm.

But, as I said, the mystical element will also be there strongly, as it was in the previous "apollo" 2T.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Thought

Just because people in the current 4T forget what happened in a past 2T, or never knew about it in the first place, doesn't mean that it didn't exist.

"In the late 19th century, New Thought was propelled by a number of spiritual thinkers and philosophers and emerged through a variety of religious denominations and churches, particularly the Unity Church and Church of Divine Science (established in 1889 and 1888, respectively)"
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#48
BTW, I think that is one thing that Sorokin didn't quite understand-spiritual currents that at first glance appear to Ideational, but have a mystical quality.

(This is consistent with the idea that we are in a period similar to the Hellenistic Age).
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#49
(01-01-2021, 02:37 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: In response to Eric....

In regards to Sorokins cycle, I suspect that we are in a period of "plastic time".  I believe that the spiritual currents that you mentioned are consistent with this, as are the continued existence of the old Senate and even older Ideational (in the form of traditional religion) currents.

All this seems to fit with the idea that we are in an in-between time, the transition between two ages.  Call it the Interregnum.

It depends on what cycle you look at, and the time frame. Is there an Age of Aquarius? Can it really be defined by the backward-shifting equinox soon to occur or is now borderline-occurring in the constellation Aquarius? If so, somehow, it is 2140-2160 years long and we are in a time similar to the time of Christ. It took 3 centuries for his "Piscean" movement (symbolized by the fish) to grow and come to dominate the Roman Empire.

Is it the cycle of civilization? The approx. 500-year rhythm, which also has a 1000-year double rhythm? If so, the Neptune-Pluto alignment around 1892 (encompassing the late 1880s and early 1890s, and the 2T/early 3T that followed as Uranus opposed Pluto and then Neptune), is a minor beat in this cycle that shifts our society from the Renaissance outlook and powers into the green, global society, with the need for alternatives to European world and Earth conquest and nationalism). The modern arts, sciences, inventions, political conflicts, and religions/philosophy of that time propelled us into a 500-year "new age." By that measure, the interregnum is over, and what we have seen recently is just temporary backsliding-- which also happened in the 16th century and other such eras.

Is it the saeculum? That is an 80-85-year cycle attuned to the 84-year cycle of Uranus, and to the length of an average human lifetime. But before the 18th century, when Uranus was only a subconscious and undiscovered planet, the saeculum was a 100+year era that happened among the upper classes in times when civilization was less massive but still operational, such as in Roman and medieval/early Renaissance times, in which human lifetimes were usually shorter. In this current modern 84-year version of the cycle, we are in a dark 3T/4T phase, which may explain the above back-sliding. That jells with an interregnum, perhaps. But when we emerge from it at the end of this decade, it will only usher in a spirit-dead recovery, which will be followed by another brief "awakening" in the late 2040s and into the 2050s. The saeculum thus is really too short of a cycle to explain such long-term shifts that govern spiritual and religious currents. The above two cycles are more relevant in this regard.

Is it the cycle of the Establishment? That is what is starting now with the "great conjunction" we can now see in the sky. This resonates with the Skowronek cycle and others, in 20 and double-40-year rhythms, and perhaps with the ancient and medieval/renaissance saeculum. But these cycles, though significant, and their approx. 200-year shift through the ancient 4 elements (from earth to air this year), govern institutions and political and economic trends and outlooks, and to some extent the affairs of religious powers too, but not spiritual currents.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#50
This is how I imagine out looks in the world in the next cycle.

1. The old Sensate current still exists, but has been becoming more and more exhausted culturally. (Though not necessarily in science and technology).

2. The old Ideational current still exists. Some New Prophets will seek to renew it in evangelical form.

3. The new-ish spiritual currents are mystical.
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#51
Another reason that we may be in a transitional era-new schools of philosophy. (The Hellenistic era was notable for multiple philosophical schools).

These, if they appear, may help to define a new era. When might such appear? During an Awakening, I expect.
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#52
Braudel stated that a philosophy may be the foundation of a civilization, just as much as religion.

I believe that during the Hellenistic Age philosophy was focussed on the individual. But Confucianism focussed on how a person should act in support of a larger community.
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#53
(01-01-2021, 02:56 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: BTW, I think that is one thing that Sorokin didn't quite understand-spiritual currents that at first glance appear to Ideational, but have a mystical quality.

(This is consistent with the idea that we are in a period similar to the Hellenistic Age).

According to the cycle of civilization, that is correct. Our time follows the Renaissance, a very optimistic and dynamic time among the upper classes and their artists and princes, which "brought back" the humanist virtues of the ancient classical world, which shifted the archaic ages into a similar "golden age" in the 6th-5th century BCE. 

The death of Alexander in 323 BC ushered in the Hellenistic Age. In this cycle, the corresponding event is the Treaty of Westphalia which ended the 30-years war and ushered in the reign of Louis XIV "the sun king" and his successors, which Louis XV correctly saw would bring on "the deluge." In England this time corresponds to the Great Rebellion, the first upsurge of a more-democratic government, precursor of the French Revolution. These were times of scientific revolution and expansive "baroque" arts.

The triumph of the Roman Republic under Sulla and its shift into the Empire in the time of Christ and the Golden "Augustan" Age and into the latter Greco-Roman Hellenistic Age corresponds to our time of the imperialist conflicts and world wars I and II leading into the "New World Order" in the time of Gorbachev and Bush. Thus we too are still in a neo-Hellenistic Age.

In the 2140-year cycle, the career of Alexander circa 330 BC links up with that of Napoleon circa 1810. The World Wars echo the Punic Wars in this cycle, and Hannibal corresponds with Hitler. There is always more than one cycle going on to reckon with. In this cycle, Uranus and Neptune align in Aquarius in 2165, exactly 2140 years after Christ and the cosmic crucifix of the 4 large outer planets in 25 AD.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#54
(01-01-2021, 03:25 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Another reason that we may be in a transitional era-new schools of philosophy.  (The Hellenistic era was notable for multiple philosophical schools).

These, if they appear, may help to define a new era.  When might such appear?  During an Awakening, I expect.

And so they did, in the 1960s and 70s.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#55
Getting back to the original post - what the next First Turning looks like will depend entirely on how the side in power (which controls basically all institutions at this point) handles dissent over the next 2-4 years. The more heavy handed the approach, the scarier the High appears to me.

Best case - extremists on both sides (alt-right and antifa) are suppressed; a social consensus around American values is reached that is mostly progressive, but allows some level of dissent without repercussions that threaten livelihoods; the foundational structures of America (SCOTUS, Senate, Congress, etc.) are not changed. In that case, the high will be similar to that after WW2 where some Civil Rights changes that occurred in the later years were rolled back, but overall there was improvement over the previous Awakening. This would mean freezing any current advancements about where they are now or quietly rolling them back.

What it would look like:

1. LGB rights are here to stay, but churches and some religious institutions (but not all) can still exclude from employment
2. Women's and Minority rights are here to stay, however the emphasis will remain on equality of opportunity not equity of outcome
3. Trans rights will be halted at current state or rolled back. I expect there would be an eventual 'compromise' around how to deal with things such as women's sports, unisex facilities like prisons, and pre-adult transitioning which will please nobody and come back to bite everyone in the next awakening.

Worst case - extremists and moderates on one side are suppressed both violently and through economic persecution; a social consensus is declared to exist which allows no level of dissent without repercussions; the foundational structures of America are altered to ensure continued dominance of one side. In that case, the high will be similar to post-WW2 Soviet Union (which, yes, was still a high).

I have no real predictions for what that would look like based on precedent, it could go in so many different ways depending on who eventually gains power. My best guess is something like 1984 meets Fahrenheit 451 meets Harrison Bergeron.
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#56
(01-08-2021, 03:03 PM)mamabug Wrote: Getting back to the original post - what the next First Turning looks like will depend entirely on how the side in power (which controls basically all institutions at this point) handles dissent over the next 2-4 years.  The more heavy handed the approach, the scarier the High appears to me.

Best case - extremists on both sides (alt-right and antifa) are suppressed; a social consensus around American values is reached that is mostly progressive, but allows some level of dissent without repercussions that threaten livelihoods; the foundational structures of America (SCOTUS, Senate, Congress, etc.) are not changed.  In that case, the high will be similar to that after WW2 where some Civil Rights changes that occurred in the later years were rolled back, but overall there was improvement over the previous Awakening.  This would mean freezing any current advancements about where they are now or quietly rolling them back.

What it would look like:

1.  LGB rights are here to stay, but churches and some religious institutions (but not all) can still exclude from employment
2. Women's and Minority rights are here to stay, however the emphasis will remain on equality of opportunity not equity of outcome
3. Trans rights will be halted at current state or rolled back.  I expect there would be an eventual 'compromise' around how to deal with things such as women's sports, unisex facilities like prisons, and pre-adult transitioning which will please nobody and come back to bite everyone in the next awakening.

This is unlikely, not because it hasn't happened before, but because it has. I'm sure the economic elites would love it, but I don't see either side accepting a return to faux social liberalism and even more economic libertarianism. The inequality is too great already, and must be addressed somehow. Then there's AGW -- the ultimate 800 pound gorilla.

Some new direction needs to be found that comports with a 1T. I have no idea what that is, which is why I think we have a way to go getting there.

mamabug Wrote:Worst case - extremists and moderates on one side are suppressed both violently and through economic persecution; a social consensus is declared to exist which allows no level of dissent without repercussions; the foundational structures of America are altered to ensure continued dominance of one side.  In that case, the high will be similar to post-WW2 Soviet Union (which, yes, was still a high).  

I have no real predictions for what that would look like based on precedent, it could go in so many different ways depending on who eventually gains power.  My best guess is something like 1984 meets Fahrenheit 451 meets Harrison Bergeron.

What we call the alt-right is just the newest manifestation of the ancient tribal hierarchy asserting itself. I'm not sure it can be suppressed or, better, reversed, but it needs to be addressed in full. Modernity can't tolerate this ancient model, with recent events the most obvious demonstration of that sad fact.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#57
Quote:This is unlikely, not because it hasn't happened before, but because it has. I'm sure the economic elites would love it, but I don't see either side accepting a return to faux social liberalism and even more economic libertarianism. The inequality is too great already, and must be addressed somehow. Then there's AGW -- the ultimate 800 pound gorilla.
I agree the best case is unlikely to happen as neither side seems sufficiently exhausted.  The opposite, in fact, the dominant faction on one side is very much operating with a zero sum mentality which won't allow it to compromise and is demanding retribution.
I disagree that the economic elites would love it or that they even want it to happen.  My cynical nomad side sees that they are the ones driving the conflict in the first place.  At it's heart, Crisis are a battle over who will control the levers of power that determine how resources are produced and consumed.  Fundamentally, it is a take-no-prisoners fight between elites.  The moral battle that plays out is a result of the coalition building each side does while putting forth the argument that they are the rightful rulers.  The moral component is needed to prevent the rank and file from believing the other side is even human, let alone someone who could be compromised with.
AGW, inequity, independence, collectivism, slavery, monarchy, etc. are all the moral battle cries that are used as a pretext for the conflict.  As the theory states, it isn't the event/problem which causes the crisis it is the way the event/problem is perceived and reacted too.  COVID-19 is a perfect example as we could have reacted to it like the Spanish Flu or SARS, but because of the exact time in which it hit we are responding to in a uniquely collectivist and statist way.
This Crisis appears to me to be a battle between those who want to maintain the American Empire that ascended after WW2 and those that want to form a new global empire.  It has been weird to watch as the coalitions morphed over the years, I still remember when 'buy American' and 'union made' was the rallying cry of the party that is now firmly in the globalist camp.  I suspect it will be the winning side, not because of moral rightness (because that doesn't win battles), but because it has built the strongest coalition of elites that will benefit from the desired outcome.  Recruiting the pro-war side of the Republican party could be looked at as the turning point.
God, I still remember marching against war with my progressive classmates.  When did the world get so weird?

Quote:What we call the alt-right is just the newest manifestation of the ancient tribal hierarchy asserting itself. I'm not sure it can be suppressed or, better, reversed, but it needs to be addressed in full. Modernity can't tolerate this ancient model, with recent events the most obvious demonstration of that sad fact.

Both sides are tribal, that's just how humans work.  Saying it doesn't belong in the modern era is like saying love and desire for family don't belong in it.  We can never eliminate tribalism or suppress it, the trick it to channel and redirect it to work towards a stable society.  Both factions currently have their violent tribalists.  Both have factions that just want to watch the world burn.  In a non-Crisis era, society as a whole wouldn't tolerate either of them (or would tolerate both equally).  In a Crisis era, the Overton Window will increasingly move away from the unfavored side until it eventually excludes not just the extremist factions, but anyone within six degrees of separation ideologically from them.  The larger the group of people whose values and beliefs are excluded from the window, the greater the potential of serious violence.
I think that is why I am apprehensive about the coming First turning.  This conflict is playing out on global, non-regionalized scale.  There will be no Canada for the British loyalists to move to, no South to hide in and pretend the world hasn't changed.  This has the potential to be the Russian Revolution with race, gender, and religion as the nexus that defines the class system that must be obliterated but no 'west' for the dissenters to be exiled too.  Currently, I don't see anyone in the Democratic party who would be able to form a stable center that allows for a majority of conservatives (remember, still half the country) to align with the emerging regime without feeling like they have sacrificed their bottom line.  Biden is too much of a Silent, Kamala too Gen X, and AOC too Millenial.  In some ways, I feel like Obama was the right leader at the wrong time.
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#58
Good to see your post, whoever you are mamabug.

I like the spiral dynamics (and planetary dynamics) approach. Tribalism is one of the earliest manifestations of society and stages of evolution. It was the ruling "value meme" or worldview from about 30,000 + BC to about 7000 + BC. It is really old hat, in other words. It is out of date; it is reversion to the distant past. These worldview memes do persist, even after their heyday. So that is part of what's happening. http://philosopherswheel.com/planetarydynamics.html

But the tribal Republicans are not valid, and are a temporary aberration. It is simple dysfunction. They proved it January 6th. Not only the mobs, but the rednecks in the House who voted their will. What a bunch of pathetic monsters they are; I listened to some of these redneck yahoos during the session on Jan.6th and could not believe how utterly stupid they are. The tribal Republicans are nothing that anyone should appease or include. They just need to go away, period.

It may take a while, but things pass. The Nazis and the KKK passed, and these alt-right neo-nazis and neo-KKK types will pass in turn. These deplorables deserve no quarter; they must be defeated, and their cult leader must never serve in office again. They are the Crisis itself. Once the 4T ends, they will have been defeated. Their alternate reality will fade away.

The Left did have its radicals, with some violent tendencies, back in the late 1960s, and the alt-right, redneck, neo-liberal movement is largely a reaction against these very 1960s movements. Perhaps this small, violent-new-left's old methods, and its calls for revolution, and its riots in the cities, influenced today's reactionary alt-right extremists, which the Left itself has now long since put aside. And yet in their slogans, the alt-right claims to represent the "USA!" and they play that horrible song about being proud to be an American. They played that song at Trump's Save America rally that incited the attack on the Capitol. Complete irony and contradiction. This movement is authoritarian, nationalist, confederate, racist fascism, pure and simple. It cannot be tolerated, or negotiated with. It must be defeated, utterly.

The standard opening song played at each campaign event with President Trump is Lee Greenwood's recording of "God Bless The USA." Lee Greenwood surprised the president with his live performance of the song at this MAGA Rally in Chattanooga, Tennessee




Many people have become caught up in this redneck tide because they have felt left out economically. They have been deceived and caught up in scapegoating the wrong people, such as non-whites, atheists, hippies and immigrants. Perhaps some of them can be swayed away from this alt-right abyss. Their economic concerns are real and valid, but they have been coopted and misdirected. Their support for the alt-right leads them to oppose the very policies that could deal with and cure their problems. They have bought into the tempting ideologies of the right: trickle-down economics/self-reliance and anti-ecology memes, xenophobia and white identity politics, white supremacy and welfare scapegoating, militarism and nationalism, gun "rights," and fundamentalist religious anti-feminist anti-gay social conservatism and anti-counter-culture. Added to this is the anti-science, alternative fact conspiracy theory culture that has infected our society in recent years, and on all sides. But the entire alt-right is a tool of the corporate elite. The alt right supports the policies that support the oligarchy, even as they feel they are outsiders. What they get for all their shouting is lower taxes and less regulations on the elites and cuts in the very government programs that could help them. They need to be re-educated in some way. Their current cause needs to be defeated, so they can look and find the real solutions, which are on the left or at least a moderate left. And as younger, more diverse and more-liberated people come on the scene, old fogey anti-hippies and rednecks will be ever-less than half the electorate.

The problems that we face are real; they are not pretexts for an elite to take power. Those on the blue side are stronger now because the need to deal with these concerns has become much stronger, because the wrong faction has held power for so long that real action has been delayed. And so the problems have gotten worse, and therefore demands have gotten more strident. It is only the alt-right that supports the elite. The left supports solutions. The Left is not a blue tribe. It is moved by more-evolved worldview memes on the spiral and planetary dynamic than the tribal meme. It is the future. The alt-right is moved by more-primitive ones. It is the past.

So there is no reason why a consensus candidate and consensus policy-set cannot emerge in the course of the 2020s and take over in the 1T. The 2020s fit the pattern of destiny as a progressive decade, like the 1900s, 1930s and 1960s. As progressive policies are increasingly put in place, they will convert enough of the other side to them that the other tribal-Republican side will lose power. The Democrats have some potential candidates who can bring much of the country together. Potential candidates like Mitch Landrieu, Terry McAuliffe, Susan Rice, and even perhaps those two new senators from Georgia. And other new leaders may come along. For now, Joe Biden is showing himself to be the leader we need, despite much recent skepticism about his capability and his record. Kamala Harris will not be the one. If she is nominated, the Democrats will not be out of the woods, and everything could crumble. The Democrats will need likable candidates who can connect with the people and inspire them. The virtual "law" is that the most likable candidate wins, regardless of ideology, party or policies. That is how Trump beat Hillary. That won't change, but the Republicans will have to choose better than Trump and his ilk if they want to be viable at all from now on.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#59
(01-08-2021, 03:03 PM)mamabug Wrote: Getting back to the original post - what the next First Turning looks like will depend entirely on how the side in power (which controls basically all institutions at this point) handles dissent over the next 2-4 years.  The more heavy handed the approach, the scarier the High appears to me.

Best case - extremists on both sides (alt-right and antifa) are suppressed; a social consensus around American values is reached that is mostly progressive, but allows some level of dissent without repercussions that threaten livelihoods; the foundational structures of America (SCOTUS, Senate, Congress, etc.) are not changed.  In that case, the high will be similar to that after WW2 where some Civil Rights changes that occurred in the later years were rolled back, but overall there was improvement over the previous Awakening.  This would mean freezing any current advancements about where they are now or quietly rolling them back.

What it would look like:

1.  LGB rights are here to stay, but churches and some religious institutions (but not all) can still exclude from employment
2. Women's and Minority rights are here to stay, however the emphasis will remain on equality of opportunity not equity of outcome
3. Trans rights will be halted at current state or rolled back.  I expect there would be an eventual 'compromise' around how to deal with things such as women's sports, unisex facilities like prisons, and pre-adult transitioning which will please nobody and come back to bite everyone in the next awakening.

Worst case - extremists and moderates on one side are suppressed both violently and through economic persecution; a social consensus is declared to exist which allows no level of dissent without repercussions; the foundational structures of America are altered to ensure continued dominance of one side.  In that case, the high will be similar to post-WW2 Soviet Union (which, yes, was still a high).  

I have no real predictions for what that would look like based on precedent, it could go in so many different ways depending on who eventually gains power.  My best guess is something like 1984 meets Fahrenheit 451 meets Harrison Bergeron.

I may not want to be a trans-sexual. I can't imagine tampering with my body that way. But this is not about whether you or I like this operation for ourselves. This is about the right of people to be what they want to be. LGBTQ rights are here to stay. Many non-white trans persons have been murdered by alt-right fanatics. They have a right to life same as anyone else. I wish people would not be so concerned about identity issues, and that we could all just respect each other as we are and get on to deal with real problems. But racism, homophobia and xenophobia must be educated out of us, and removed as systemic aspects of our society, or we will remain stuck in yesterday's oppression.

Whether our institutions change may depend on how determined the right-wing is to use them to block needed action and reforms. In a 4T, institutions can change. We may need to change some of the Senate rules. We may need to change the Supreme Court. The last time change to the Supreme Court was proposed, in the previous 4T, the justices backed down and it wasn't necessary. With this much younger Trump/Bush court we have now, we'll just have to see. Meanwhile, DC and PR statehood and maybe others could redress the senate and electoral-college imbalance favoring redneck rural former-slave states that have our nation stymied. I doubt the current condition of our government can survive the 4T with the threat of climate change and pandemics hanging over it and the systemic racism and inequality that has kept our people down so long.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#60
Mamabug, I doubt that the next 1T will be a High like last time around. This 4T is a Fracturing crisis rather than a Unifying crisis. As I have indicated, I think that decentralization is the best case scenario for the USA, which....leads to a weak 1T, rather than a triumphant High.
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