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*** 15-Jan-17 World View -- Poland welcomes biggest deployment of American tanks and troops in decades
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Poland welcomes biggest deployment of American tanks and troops in decades
- US troop deployment in Poland angers Russia
****
**** Poland welcomes biggest deployment of American tanks and troops in decades
****
![[Image: g170114b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170114b.jpg)
Prime Minister of Poland Beata Szydlo and Maj. Gen. Jaroslaw Mika, commander of Poland's 11th Armored Cavalry Division, conduct a review of U.S. and Polish troops during an official ceremony in Zagan, Poland (DVIDS)
People across Poland are celebrating "Operation Resolve," the arrival
to Poland the largest US military deployment to Europe in decades.
The deployment includes about 4,000 troops and also 2,400 pieces of
military equipment, including tanks and Humvees.
The deployment is a reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and
annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. Other countries in eastern
Europe are concerned that they will be the next victim of a Russian
invasion, and it's hoped that the presence of US troops will deter
Russia.
Prime Minister Beata Szydlo said,
> [indent] <QUOTE>"Welcome to Poland. ... The presence of American
> soldiers in Poland is another step in our strategy to ensure
> safety and security for Poland and the region. ...
>
> It's a great day today when we can welcome, here in Zagan,
> American soldiers who represent the best, the greatest army in the
> world."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Poland's Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz said:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"We have waited for you for a very long time. We
> waited for decades, sometimes feeling we had been left alone,
> sometimes almost losing hope, sometimes feeling that we were the
> only ones who protected civilization from aggression that came
> from the east."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The American troops will be part of a Nato contingent that will
include troops from Britain and Canada. The troops will be rotated
every nine months through Poland, the Baltic countries, Bulgaria and
Romania in order to provide a technical workaround to a promise made
to Moscow after the fall of the Soviet Union that Nato would not
permanently base large numbers of forces east of Germany. Deutsche Welle and CNN and AFP
****
**** US troop deployment in Poland angers Russia
****
Russia's president Vladimir Putin is always calling everyone he
dislikes "Nazis" and "Fascists," but he doesn't like to admit that
Russia's were also "Nazis and Fascists" prior Adolf Hitler's invasion
of Russia. Hitler and Josef Stalin had signed a treaty (the
Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact) in 1939 where they split up Poland between
them. The agreement also divided Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland,
and Romania between the Nazis and the Communists. It was only in
1941, when the Nazis invaded Russia, that Stalin finally learned being
a Nazi is not a good thing. Even so, after Hitler was defeated,
Stalin's Soviet forces occupied Poland and other east European
countries for decades.
These events are far ancient history to today's young generations in
America and Western Europe, but they're still very raw memories to the
people of Poland and other East European countries. They've seen
Russia invade and annex parts of Georgia and Ukraine, and they have no
doubts that Russia would invade their countries, as has happened in
the past.
Putin press spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the US troops in Poland
would be "a threat to Russia's national security."
It's hard to believe that 5,000 American troops would be a threat to
Russia's security, inasmuch as Russia has something like 330,000
troops along its western border. Furthermore, Russia has long-range
Iskander cruise missiles in Kaliningrad that can be made nuclear.
The US deployment is being described as a "tripwire" force, designed
to prevent Russia from getting away with an easy invasion of some
other country, as they did with Georgia and Ukraine. It's thought
that Russia would not be willing to risk a larger war by attacking an
American force of any size.
Russian military expert Vladimir Kozin says that another reasons for
the deployment is that outgoing President Obama wants to box in Donald
Trump:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"According to the German military, some 900 railroad
> cars will be needed to deliver all this equipment to the
> deployment sites. But what is the reason? First, [US President
> Barack] Obama wants to play a mean trick on President-elect Donald
> Trump who won the election."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's worth mentioning that there's one other possible theory why Obama
did this in the last few days of his administration: It's possible
that Trump asked Obama to do it before leaving office, so that he
wouldn't have to do it.
Kozin said that the deployment is unprecedented since the collapse of
the Soviet Union, and that the US is forcing Europe to accept it:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"Finally, the US wants to maintain tensions around the
> world and particularly in Europe. They want to turn the region
> into another tinderbox ready to ignite. This number one
> priority. ...
>
> The US and NATO plan to increase aerial, anti-submarine, missile
> defense and intelligence activities with the use of heavy military
> equipment. In order to justify sanctions, the situation needs to
> be tense all the time. Europe is becoming a prisoner of this new
> Cold War initiated by Obama."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Sputnik News (Moscow) and Deutsche Welle (14-Nov-2016) and Sky News
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Poland, Beata Szydlo, Jaroslaw Mika,
Antoni Macierewicz, Operation Resolve, Ukraine, Crimea, Bulgaria, Romania,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin,
Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, Dmitry Peskov, Kaliningrad,
Vladimir Kozin
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Lol, in recent news, Poland admits that it has been longing for foreign tanks on its soil again!
How have you been, John?
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*** 16-Jan-17 World View -- With Libya in chaos, migrant deal with Italy collapses
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Over 100 migrants drown in Mediterranean after their dinghy sinks
- With Libya in chaos, migrant deal with Italy collapses
****
**** Over 100 migrants drown in Mediterranean after their dinghy sinks
****
![[Image: g170115b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170115b.jpg)
Migrants in a dinghy rescued on Thursday of last week (AP)
Italy's Coast Guard was able to rescue only four people after a rubber
dinghy with 110 migrants sank in rough waters in the Mediterranean Sea
about 30 miles off the coast of Libya.
These situations are brought about by people smugglers. They charge
desperate migrants thousands of dollars each. Typically, the people
smugglers put hundreds of migrants into a single large rubber dinghy,
and give the migrants enough fuel to leave Libyan waters and a cell
phone to use to call the Italian coast guard.
The four who were rescued were among 550 who were rescued on one day,
Friday.
It's expected (or feared) that, like last year, hundreds of thousands
of migrants will attempt to cross from Libya to Italy this year.
According to Malta Prime Minister Joseph Muscat:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"Come next spring, the number of people crossing over
> the Mediterranean will reach record levels. The choice is trying
> to do something now, or meeting urgently in April, May ... and try
> to do a deal then."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's also expected that there will be thousands of migrants departing
from Egypt, with the same objective. Libya Herald and Reuters and Telegraph (London) and AP
****
**** With Libya in chaos, migrant deal with Italy collapses
****
Italy reopened its embassy in Libya's capital city Tripoli last week,
the first Western country to do so since 2015. Italy had hoped that
doing so would lead to an agreement with the government of Libya to
slow the flow of migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea to
Italy.
Unfortunately, the agreement was never signed by the government of
Libya because the phrase "the government of Libya" is meaningless.
There are several governments in Libya:
- Libya Dawn or the General National Congress (GNC), seated in
Tripoli and western libya, composed of militias that seized Tripoli in
2014.
- The Libya National Army (LNA), headed by Maj-Gen Khalifah Haftar,
seated in Beida in eastern Libya. a secular government that fled from
Tripoli in 2014.
- The Government of National Accord (GNA), also in Tripoli, which
was created by the United Nations a year ago in the hope of unifying
the country behind it.
None of these three governments recognizes either of the others, and
so there's no hope of getting any agreement.
In fact, the Beida government last week accused Italy's Coast Guard of
violating Libyan sovereignty with its rescue program. Italy had
received the approval of the Government of National Accord, but in a
note last week, the Beida government said,
> [indent] <QUOTE>"An Italian military vessel loaded with soldiers and
> ammunition has entered Libyan territorial waters. It is a clear
> violation of the UN charter and a form of repeated
> aggression."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
One other government could be mentioned -- the so-called National
Salvation Government, led by Khalifa Ghwell, who claimed several days
ago that his forces had seized several ministries in Tripoli, and that
the Government of National Accord (GNA) had been defeated. His claims
could not be confirmed. VOA and Libya Herald and North Africa Post and Libya Herald
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Italy, Mediterranean Sea,
Malta, Joseph Muscat, Egypt,
Libya Dawn, General National Congress, GNC,
Libya National Army, LNA, Khalifah Haftar,
Government of National Accord, GNA,
National Salvation Government, Khalifa Ghwell
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(01-14-2017, 10:17 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Lol, in recent news, Poland admits that it has been longing for foreign tanks on its soil again!
How have you been, John?
Just barely surviving, and you?
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(01-16-2017, 12:09 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: (01-14-2017, 10:17 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Lol, in recent news, Poland admits that it has been longing for foreign tanks on its soil again!
How have you been, John?
Just barely surviving, and you?
Am doing fairly well. Am working again, starting up some supplementary classes this week to finish the second degree, all that good stuff. Appreciate the reach out on LinkedIn, too.
So, still not convinced of your crisis war alliance configuration, but the prospects (still speculative at this point, but still) of improved relations with Russia give it a little boost, imo. I know that's been keeping you up at night. 
Dunno about the same with Iran, now. Lot of people in the ole Trump Admin and on Capitol Hill chomping at the bit at the prospect of confronting it once and for all. Which is unfortunate, because I largely agree with your case about social attitudes among their rising Idealists. The post-Awakening changes might not take effect quick enough for our old Idealists, and the value shift is never complete until the conclusion of their next 4T. But we'll see.
Have you got any thoughts on dates, over there at Generational Dynamics, on a possible start date for the big 'un? The 2020s are starting to loom real large on the upcoming horizon.
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*** 17-Jan-17 World View -- European leaders shocked and surprised at Trump's foreign policy comments
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China threatens to 'take off the gloves' with Donald Trump
- European leaders shocked and surprised at Trump's foreign policy comments
****
**** China threatens to 'take off the gloves' with Donald Trump
****
![[Image: g170116b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170116b.jpg)
Trump interview on Monday (dpa)
A kind of war of words continues to grow between by president-elect
Donald Trump and China's media over Trump's repeated comments
appearing to challenge the "One-China Policy," which states that there
is one China, not two, but leaves it to mainland China and Taiwan to
interpret it differently.
Recently, an editorial in China's Global Times threatened "revenge"
against Trump over his comments. Although Global Times is Chinese
state media, it is the most nationalistic of the state
English-language publications, and its editorials are sometimes
ignored just ravings.
So it's worth noting that the latest editorial with a threat is in
China Daily, which is a more mainstream state media outline. The
editorial appears to be carefully worded, talking about China's "warm
heart" at the beginning, and leaving the threat of taking the "gloves
off" almost to the end.
According to the editorial, because Trump is making repeated comments,
he's now "showing intent" to challenge the policy:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"When it comes to tolerance, it is our tradition to
> display a big heart. That is why one can normally get away with
> making the same mistake twice, as one will be given the benefit of
> the doubt.
>
> But one will seldom be given the benefit of the doubt twice,
> because doing the same wrong for a third time shows intent.
>
> When United States president-elect Donald Trump broke his
> country's longstanding diplomatic protocol and answered a
> "congratulatory call" from Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen, the Chinese
> foreign minister merely responded by calling it a "petty trick" by
> Taipei.
>
> When, just nine days later, Trump told Fox News Sunday the US
> would not "be bound by the one-China policy", Beijing simply
> reiterated that acknowledgement of one China is fundamental, and
> non-negotiable, for healthy ties.
>
> To many, that was a mistake Trump made twice. ...
>
> It seems wishful thinking to assume Trump and his team's remarks
> on Taiwan have been based on bluster or miscalculation. On the
> contrary, it appears the next administration is intending to use
> the one-China policy as its trump card. ...
>
> If Trump is determined to use this gambit on taking office, a
> period of fierce, damaging interactions will be unavoidable, as
> Beijing will have no choice but to take off the
> gloves."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The latest Global Times editorial says that "China cannot and will not
offer anything in exchange for the one-China policy, and Trump must
understand that." It adds that China will be closely watching what
Trump does as president rather than what he has been saying. China Daily and Global Times (Beijing)
****
**** European leaders shocked and surprised at Trump's foreign policy comments
****
European leaders are expressing shock and surprise at comments made by
president-elect Donald Trump in a pair of newspaper interviews.
Trump expressed great support for Brexit, referring to the plans
underway for Britain to leave the European Union:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"I think Brexit’s going to end up being the great
> thing. And I predicted it – but the heat I took was
> unbelievable. And I said – it’s because people don’t wanna have
> other people coming in and destroying their country. I thought the
> UK was so smart in getting out."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Trump said that NATO is obsolete:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"And I said long time ago that NATO had problems and
> the one of them it was obsolete because it was designed many many
> years ago. And, number two, the countries weren’t paying what they
> were supposed to pay."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Trump's attitudes on immigrants are well-known, after his campaign
remarks about Mexican immigrants being rapists and murderers and about
deporting all Muslims. He's highly critical of the 2015 remarks by
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel which many people blame for much of
the refugee crisis in Europe. In the interview, Trump said:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"I have great respect for her (Merkel), I felt she was
> a great great leader. I think she made one very catastrophic
> mistake – and that was taking all of these illegals, taking all of
> the people wherever they come from – and nobody really knows where
> they come from."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
European leaders have expressed shock and dismay at Trump's remarks,
but were careful not to inflame the situation further. Some pointed
out that not all immigrants are illegals.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the question is: How
are these remarks affecting the course of events? As long-time
readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that the world is
headed for a new world war, and that this will be brought about by a
worldwide renewal of nationalism, racism and xenophobia, as the
survivors of World War II continue to die off, and memories of the
horrors of WW II are forgotten.
My own belief is that Trump's remarks will have no effect at all on
the course of events, except to create a flurry of global political
posturing. The events of the next year may prove or disprove that
belief. Euro News and Deutsche Welle and France 24
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, China, Taiwan, One-China policy,
Brexit, Germany, Angela Merkel, Nato
Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, China, Taiwan, One-China policy,
Brexit, Germany, Angela Merkel, Nato
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(01-16-2017, 12:42 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: (01-16-2017, 12:09 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: (01-14-2017, 10:17 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Lol, in recent news, Poland admits that it has been longing for foreign tanks on its soil again!
How have you been, John?
Just barely surviving, and you?
Am doing fairly well. Am working again, starting up some supplementary classes this week to finish the second degree, all that good stuff. Appreciate the reach out on LinkedIn, too.
So, still not convinced of your crisis war alliance configuration, but the prospects (still speculative at this point, but still) of improved relations with Russia give it a little boost, imo. I know that's been keeping you up at night.
Dunno about the same with Iran, now. Lot of people in the ole Trump Admin and on Capitol Hill chomping at the bit at the prospect of confronting it once and for all. Which is unfortunate, because I largely agree with your case about social attitudes among their rising Idealists. The post-Awakening changes might not take effect quick enough for our old Idealists, and the value shift is never complete until the conclusion of their next 4T. But we'll see.
Have you got any thoughts on dates, over there at Generational Dynamics, on a possible start date for the big 'un? The 2020s are starting to loom real large on the upcoming horizon.
You seem to be continuing a conversation that we've had before, but I
have no idea who you are, or what this conversation was/is about.
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Jordan Goodspeed.
I used to argue with you about referring to Boko Haram as a Hausa organization when they're really a Kanuri one (am right on that one), whether Thailand was in an Awakening or Crisis (have come around to your view), etc.
I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for when they think the crisis war will start.
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*** 18-Jan-17 World View -- The Gambia's leader, refusing to step down, declares state of emergency
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- The Gambia's leader, refusing to step down, declares state of emergency
- Burundi's leader, refusing to step down, withdraws peacekeeping troops fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia
****
**** The Gambia's leader, refusing to step down, declares state of emergency
****
![[Image: g170117b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170117b.jpg)
Supporters of incumbent President Yahya Jammeh sit at a campaign rally prior to the 1-Dec-2016 election that Jammeh lost to businessman Adama Barrow (Getty)
Britain is withdrawing almost 1,000 tourists from The Gambia, after
president Yahya Jammeh declared a state of emergency two days before
Jammeh's term in office ends. Like many other African leaders, Jammeh
is refusing to step down when his term in office officially ends on
January 19.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been
mediating in the crisis hoping to convince Jammeh to step down
peacefully on Thursday, something that now appears will not happen.
There has been an implied threat that Senegal and other ECOWAS
countries will send in a military force. Meanwhile, thousands of
Gambians are fleeing the country or sending their children abroad,
fearing a possible war. However, it's not clear what the mission of
such a military force would be, as some and perhaps most of The
Gambian army is remaining loyal to Jammeh. Independent (London) and Guardian (London) and The Point (The Gambia)
Related Articles
****
**** Burundi's leader, refusing to step down, withdraws peacekeeping troops fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia
****
Burundi's president Pierre Nkurunziza is withdrawing his troops from
the African Union peacekeeping force, over a pay dispute with the
European Union. The EU pays the salaries of the Burundi peacekeeping
troops, but they don't want to pay the money to Nkurunziza out of fear
that he'll just put the money into his overseas bank account, or use
the money to buy weapons to be used against his political opponents.
Like many African leaders, Nkurunziza is refusing to step down, and
instead is remaining in office in violation of Burundi's constitution.
As usual in Africa, this is about tribal violence. Nkurunziza is an
ethnic Hutu, he's conducting torture, sexual violence, arbitrary
jailings, targeted assassinations and summary executions against his
political opposition, almost all from the Tutsi tribe.
So the EU doesn't want to pay the soldiers' salaries, around $5.3
million per month, to the Nkurunziza government, but instead want to
pay it directly to the soldiers. The peacekeeping force is really
badly needed in Somalia, to fight the jihadist terror group
al-Shabaab. Nkurunziza is now pulling out his troops from the
peacekeeping force, hoping that he can extort the money out of the EU
and use it to bash more political opponents.
Vanguard (Nigeria) and Africa News and All Africa
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, The Gambia, Yahya Jammeh, Adama Barrow,
Economic Community of West African States ECOWAS, Senegal,
Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza, African Union, European Union,
Somalia, al-Shabaab
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(01-17-2017, 12:04 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: Jordan Goodspeed.
I used to argue with you about referring to Boko Haram as a Hausa organization when they're really a Kanuri one (am right on that one), whether Thailand was in an Awakening or Crisis (have come around to your view), etc.
I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for when they think the crisis war will start.
If I understand his theory correctly, it's a probabilistic thing, with gradually increasing probability. That makes giving a date range tough. Hopefully he'll correct me if I'm wrong.
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(01-17-2017, 11:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (01-17-2017, 12:04 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: Jordan Goodspeed.
I used to argue with you about referring to Boko Haram as a Hausa organization when they're really a Kanuri one (am right on that one), whether Thailand was in an Awakening or Crisis (have come around to your view), etc.
I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for when they think the crisis war will start.
If I understand his theory correctly, it's a probabilistic thing, with gradually increasing probability. That makes giving a date range tough. Hopefully he'll correct me if I'm wrong.
I don't think the one should necessarily preclude the other, but we'll see.
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(01-17-2017, 12:34 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: I know there are quite a few Kremlin bootlicking NATO haters on this forum.
In any case, if NATO falls apart we will really regret it.
Learn to call yourselves Amerikanskis.
Learn to kiss the feet of your future Eastern overlords.
Thanks for clearing that up. Way to take a stand.
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01-18-2017, 04:47 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2017, 04:49 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
(01-17-2017, 12:04 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: > Jordan Goodspeed.
> I used to argue with you about referring to Boko Haram as a Hausa
> organization when they're really a Kanuri one (am right on that
> one), whether Thailand was in an Awakening or Crisis (have come
> around to your view), etc.
> I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for
> when they think the crisis war will start.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh. Jordan!!!
Of course I recognize your name, where I didn't recognize "SomeGuy".
Yeah, I did reach out to you on LinkedIn, though I wasn't sure it was
you -- it might have been some OTHER Jordan Goodspeed.
Thanks for the correction on the Kanuris. If memory serves, I thanked
you for the correction at the time. As for Thailand, I've always been
nervous about that timeline, even though I'm pretty sure it's correct.
(South Sudan is another current example that makes me nervous.) In
Thailand, what would really nail it is showing that the current "red
shirts" and "yellow shirts" are respectively provably connected to the
two sides in the Cambodian war, either through direct support or
indirect support.
> I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for
> when they think the crisis war will start.
Well, you really can't tell. The Crisis Era began in 2003, so we're
pretty deep already into the Fourth Turning. The question is: When
will the Regeneracy occur, and how will it occur?
There are many possible scenarios for how the war will start. It
could be in the East or South China Sea, Pakistan vs India, in the
Mideast, or even something involving Ukraine. It's really a crap
shoot as to what will trigger a war.
And I like to compare a generational crisis war to an inappropriate
love affair. It's completely illogical and emotional. A person may
have sex with someone even knowing that it will end badly, even
destroy people's lives, but it happens anyway. Similarly, the South
attacked Fort Sumter with no chance of winning the war. Japan
attacked Pearl Harbor with no chance of winning the war. The Chinese
think we're weak and won't even fight back, and they might start
something at any time.
Here are three examples showing how hard (or impossible) it is to
specify anything like an exact time or scenario:
- In 2006, Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon was a total
disaster for Israel. When two Israeli soldiers were abducted by
Hezbollah, Israel went into a state of total panic, and launched the
war in Lebanon within four hours, with no plan and no objectives. In
the next few weeks, the supposed objectives changed on an almost daily
basis.
** How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e061223
If Lebanon had been in a generational Crisis era, then might have
resulted in a crisis war. As it was, the war fizzled in a few weeks.
But the point is that Israel's panic could not have been predicted in
advance.
- After 9/11, we were at war with bin Laden in Afghanistan within 24
hours. If bin Laden had been hiding out with the Uighurs in China, we
might have been in a crisis war.
- To this day, no one knows what triggered the October 1929 panic,
or why it occurred at that precise time. If we can't figure that out
after 88 years, then we have no reason to believe that we can predict
the next one, or that we can figure out what happened after it
happens.
Warren's point is right as well. As you go deeper and deeper into a
fourth turning, then there's a continual increase in nationalism,
racism and xenophobia, so the climate gets better and better for a
regeneracy.
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I thought you might. Sorry, Have fallen back into old habits without always remembering that I changed my handle.
Yeah, you did thank me (which I appreciate), I mentioned it solely to jog your memory. As for Thailand, yeah, it's kinda iffy. The king is finally dead, and thus far the red/yellow conflict hasn't shown signs of flaring into something more dramatic. I remember going back and forth with you about it, 'cause it's real easy to identify the active turnings versus the reactionary ones, but harder to distinguish which are which (2T vs 4T). Like I said, I've swung around to your view, but I suppose we'll see.
I agree with the thing about timing, too. There's lots of kindling, some sparks, but as yet, no flames (at least among the principals). Trump looks like he could prove a catalyst. Should be interesting (for the apocryphal Chinese curse values of the same). Was just curious if you had settled on something a little more definite.
Well, thanks.
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John - and anyone else interested - how much warning do you think we'll get before cities start getting destroyed? Seems like the Civil war escalated pretty fast, but the US had a few years warning about WWII due to its starting elsewhere. Just wondering at what point to move kids out of likely target areas.
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(01-18-2017, 09:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: John - and anyone else interested - how much warning do you think we'll get before cities start getting destroyed? Seems like the Civil war escalated pretty fast, but the US had a few years warning about WWII due to its starting elsewhere. Just wondering at what point to move kids out of likely target areas.
If you're genuinely worried New Hampshire and Oregon have little to no major targets (cities or missile silos both) and fall outside of the major fallout patterns. Most of the radiation would vanish after the first couple of days, too (alpha radiation is a bit rough on nuclei). You also have to wonder, since there isn't quite the same hair-trigger disposition of forces or huge conventional forces imbalance a la the Red Army poised against Western Europe, whether nuclear weapons would be a first resort at all.
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01-18-2017, 09:47 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-19-2017, 09:11 AM by Warren Dew.)
(01-18-2017, 09:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: (01-18-2017, 09:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: John - and anyone else interested - how much warning do you think we'll get before cities start getting destroyed? Seems like the Civil war escalated pretty fast, but the US had a few years warning about WWII due to its starting elsewhere. Just wondering at what point to move kids out of likely target areas.
If you're genuinely worried New Hampshire and Oregon have little to no major targets (cities or missile silos both) and fall outside of the major fallout patterns. Most of the radiation would vanish after the first couple of days, too (alpha radiation is a bit rough on nuclei). You also have to wonder, since there isn't quite the same hair-trigger disposition of forces or huge conventional forces imbalance a la the Red Army poised against Western Europe, whether nuclear weapons would be a first resort at all.
I'm not sure why anyone posting on this forum wouldn't be genuinely worried. But then, lots of people say they believe in evolution and don't apply their knowledge to their own lifestyle.
Part of what I'm asking about is what the escalation to nuclear weapons is likely to look like and how long it will take - minutes, hours, days, weeks, months, years? Okay, that's pretty much all I was asking in my previous post.
You know, like will I have enough warning to buy and move to a home in New Hampshire or would I need a vacation cottage purchased in advance?
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*** 19-Jan-17 World View -- European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Brexit becomes more real after Theresa May's speech
- European anger versus British self-delusion
****
**** Brexit becomes more real after Theresa May's speech
****
![[Image: g170118b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170118b.jpg)
Theresa May
Britain's prime minister Theresa May gave a speech on Tuesday
outlining her plans for how Britain will leave the European Union,
following the Brexit referendum of June 23 of last year.
The speech did not provide much hard information that wasn't already
known, but the speech was important nonetheless because it made the
Brexit concept a lot more real.
Some of the major parts of the plan are as follows:
- Trade and "Hard Brexit": Completely leave the EU Single
Market, but then renegotiate trade agreements with the EU and other
countries. All ties will be cut, and the negotiations will start with
a blank slate.
- Immigration: Brexit must mean control of the number of people who
come to Britain from Europe. Polls have shown that of all the reasons
why people voted for Brexit, the only one that really mattered was
migration -- control of Christian migrants from eastern Europe to
Britain, and control of Muslim migrants from Syria, the Mideast and
northern Africa to Britain.
- Give Britain control of its own laws. No longer any control by
the European Parliament or the European Court of Justice.
- Strengthen the Union between the four nations of the United
Kingdom. This is a tricky one, since England and Wales were
pro-Brexit, Scotland and Northern Ireland were (and are)
anti-Brexit.
- Deliver a practical solution that allows the maintenance of the
Common Travel Area with the Republic of Ireland. After Brexit, there
will be only one remaining land border between the UK and the EU --
and that will be the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of
the UK, and the Republic of Ireland (or Southern Ireland), which is an
independent country that will remain part of the EU. It took years of
bitter negotiation to allow free travel between Ireland and Northern
Ireland in past decades, and ow those agreements are in jeopardy.
- Protect rights for EU nationals in Britain and British nationals
in the EU. These are the people whose lives have been thrown into the
most chaos by the Brexit votes.
Although May laid out her Brexit plans for the first time, she didn't
really provide any details beyond what was already known. For
example, she wants to allow travel between Ireland and Northern
Ireland. How is that possible, if Ireland is in the EU, while
Northern Ireland is not? UK Government - speech transcript and Telegraph (London)
****
**** European anger versus British self-delusion
****
The combination of two of the items, trade and immigration, are the
most explosive. They're also the one causing the most fury in the EU,
and the ones about which the UK is most self-delusional.
Today, as part of the EU, the UK freely trades with the EU countries,
with goods flowing freely in both directions. That's one of the EU's
"four freedoms": freedom of movement for people, goods, capital and
services.
Mrs. May and a number of other UK leaders seem to believe that the EU
will be so anxious to continue trade relations with the UK, they'll be
willing to agree to a trade agreement that would be as good as the one
if the UK were still part of the EU Single Market, but without all the
obligations of EU membership, such as freedom of movement for people.
This attitude infuriates many EU leaders. That's not surprising
because they've been furious with Britain ever the results of the June
23 Brexit referendum were announced, particularly because the Brexit
referendum has stirred anti-immigration sentiment across the EU, and
given rise to populist anti-EU politicians.
May addressed this sentiment in her speech as follows:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"So I believe the framework I have outlined today is
> in Britain’s interests. It is in Europe’s interests. And it is in
> the interests of the wider world.
>
> But I must be clear. Britain wants to remain a good friend and
> neighbor to Europe. Yet I know there are some voices calling for
> a punitive deal that punishes Britain and discourages other
> countries from taking the same path.
>
> That would be an act of calamitous self-harm for the countries of
> Europe. And it would not be the act of a friend. Britain would not
> – indeed we could not – accept such an approach. And while I am
> confident that this scenario need never arise – while I am sure a
> positive agreement can be reached – I am equally clear that no
> deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for
> Britain."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Joseph Muscat, the prime minister of EU member nation Malta, said that
"European rules and institutions cannot be compromised," and added:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"We want a fair deal for the UK but that deal
> necessarily needs to be inferior to membership. This should not
> come as a surprise to anyone — indeed thinking it can be otherwise
> would be a detachment from reality."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
So you have anger on one side, and "detachment from reality" on the
other side.
May has not yet "invoked Article 50," which would launch two years of
negotiations between Britain and the EU over the terms of the
separation. She has promised to do that by the end of March, but
there's also a pending court case, to be decided in next week, where a
decision might take away May's power to invoke Article 50 without a
vote from the Parliament. and Reuters and The Sun (London)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Theresa May, Brexit,
European Union, European Court of Justice, Ireland, Northern Ireland,
Joseph Muscat, Malta
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*** 20-Jan-17 World View -- Senegal's troops enter The Gambia to force the ruler to step down
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Senegal's troops enter The Gambia to force the ruler to step down
- Why you have to say 'The Gambia', rather than just 'Gambia'
****
**** Senegal's troops enter The Gambia to force the ruler to step down
****
![[Image: g170119b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170119b.jpg)
Supporters of president-elect Adama Barrow celebrate his inauguration at Gambia's embassy in Dakar, Senegal on Thursday (Reuters)
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), with Senegal
in the lead, sent a military force into The Gambia on Thursday to
begin traveling to the capital city Banjul, in order to force the
long-time dictator Yahya Jammeh to step down, having lost the last
election in December. Nigeria has sent aircraft and troops to
Senegal, and deployed a warship. Jammeh has been dictator since a
1994 coup, but with his election loss, his mandate ends on Thursday,
January 19. If Jammeh steps down without bloodshed, then he will be
permitted to go into exile in the country of his choice.
On the same day, the winner of December's election, Adama Barrow, was
sworn in as president at Gambia's embassy in Dakar, the capital city
of Senegal. That makes Barrow the legitimate leader of The Gambia,
with the international authority to approve the ECOWAS military force.
The United Nations Security Council immediately approved the ECOWAS
military action.
Analysts are mixed in their assessments of whether the military action
will succeed. Jammeh is becoming increasingly isolated, in that many
people in his government have resigned, and some army soldiers have
indicated that they will not defend Jammeh. However, there are still
some soldiers that are loyal to Jammeh, and a battle with Senegalese
soldiers could go either way.
As of this writing on Thursday evening ET (Friday morning in The
Gambia), ECOWAS announced that it was halting its military operation
in order to permit weekend negotiations for a mediated settlement.
ECOWAS will send a team led by Guinea's president, Alpha Conde, and
including the presidents of Liberia and Mauritania to Banjul on
Friday. Reuters and BBC and AP
Related Articles
****
**** Why you have to say 'The Gambia', rather than just 'Gambia'
****
There are two reasons why "The Gambia" has "The" in front of its name:
- When the Portuguese first explored the country, they named it
after The River Gambia, and so it became The Gambia.
- So it won't be confused with another African country,
Zambia.
Other geographic locations that demand the definite article are The
Bahamas and The Hague.
And let's not forget the immortal words of Ogden Nash who, in 1931,
said "The Bronx? No thonx." Later in life, as an "older and wiser
man," he apologized and wrote, "The Bronx? God bless them." Africa News and NAIJ (Nigeria) and Blogden Nash
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, The Gambia, Banjul, Yahya Jammeh,
Adama Barrow, Senegal, Dakar, Nigeria,
Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS,
The Bahamas, The Hague, The Bronx, Ogden Nash
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*** 21-Jan-17 World View -- President Trump's inauguration speech links today's America to the 1930s
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- President Trump's inauguration speech links today's America to the 1930s
- The Gambia's leader steps down, after his army chief deserts him
****
**** President Trump's inauguration speech links today's America to the 1930s
****
![[Image: g170120b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170120b.jpg)
Friday's inauguration in Washington
After the end of World War II, world leaders decided that the root
causes of the war were nationalism and xenophobia in the 1930s, as
I've been writing about for years, as well as American isolationism.
President Donald J. Trump's inauguration speech combined strong
nationalism and isolationism with just a tiny smidgen of xenophobia,
much less of the latter than we've heard from him in the past. It
seemed to me that he struck the right balance, but even so, his speech
was a return to the mood of the 1930s.
His appeal to nationalism and isolationism was at its strongest when
he firmly declared that "it's going to be only America first, America
first." All of these themes can be identified from the following
excerpts:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to
> be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every
> hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our
> land. From this day forward, it's going to be only America first,
> America first.
>
> Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign
> affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American
> families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other
> countries making our products, stealing our companies and
> destroying our jobs. ...
>
> We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the
> world, but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of
> all nations to put their own interests first. We do not seek to
> impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an
> example. We will shine for everyone to follow."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The invocation of nationalism and isolationism was not the only link
in Trump's speech to 1930s America. His description of today's
America could have come right out of a history book describing the
Great Depression:
> [indent] <QUOTE>"At the center of this movement is a crucial
> conviction, that a nation exists to serve its citizens. Americans
> want great schools for their children, safe neighborhoods for
> their families, and good jobs for themselves. These are just and
> reasonable demands of righteous people and a righteous public.
>
> But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists:
> mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities;
> rusted out factories scattered like tombstones across the
> landscape of our nation; an education system flush with cash, but
> which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all
> knowledge; and the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have
> stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized
> potential.
>
> This American carnage stops right here and stops right
> now."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
MSNBC's Chris Matthews made the truly idiotic statement that Trump's
inauguration speech was "Hitlerian." Actually, it was much more
"Rooseveltian," because it describes a national mood today that's very
similar to the national mood in the 1930s -- not Germany's mood, but
America's mood.
Perhaps, in drafting this speech, Trump was influenced by his chief
strategist Steve Bannon, who is very knowledgeable about Generational
Dynamics and about history in general. But however it came about,
Trump's view of America today is remarkably similar to the
Generational Dynamics view of America that I've been writing about for
years. And Generational Dynamics predicts that the world his headed
for a Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting China and its allies
against America and its allies. This is what America and the Trump
administration should be preparing for. Washington Post and The Hill
Related Articles
****
**** The Gambia's leader steps down, after his army chief deserts him
****
There was a lot of talk on Friday comparing the United States to the
Gambia. America has had orderly transitions of power every four years
since 1792, even during the American Civil War -- a remarkable feat
possibly unparalleled by any other country in history.
By contrast, in many countries in Africa, when a leader comes to
power, he refuses to step down, and directs violence and torture to
any opposition figures who object. I've written extensively about
this in Zimbabwe and Burundi for example, as well as in Syria (not an
African country).
The Gambia was on exactly the same path, when the dictator Yahya
Jammeh, who took power in a 1994 coup, refused to step down after
losing the December election for president to businessman Adama
Barrow. Jammeh's mandate ended on January 19, and troops from several
of The Gambia's neighbors in the ECOWAS confederation (Economic
Community of West African States) sent troops into The Gambia and
threatened to force Jammeh to step down.
What's remarkable about this situation is the unanimity of
international opinion. In any similar situation, some countries would
side with Jammeh and others would side with his opponent. But in this
case, every country that made any statement at all sided against
Jammeh.
On Friday, the leaders of Mauritania and Guinea flew into The Gambia's
capital city Banjul to convince Jammeh to leave without bloodshed.
According to reports, Jammeh refused to give up power until late
Friday evening, when his army leader General Ousman Badjie defected,
and joined the calls for Jammeh to step down.
Late reports indicate that he's agreed, but it's not known what the
terms are or where he would be going.
Meanwhile, on Friday, President Obama left office and President Trump
entered that office. No threatening troops from any foreign country
were required for that change to occur. Vanguard (Nigeria) and BBC
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump,
The Gambia, Banjul, Yahya Jammeh, Ousman Badjie,
Adama Barrow, Senegal, Dakar, Nigeria,
Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS
Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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