01-21-2017, 12:31 AM
Speaking of derangement... 
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01-21-2017, 09:15 AM
(01-20-2017, 11:25 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > I know you really hated Obama. I didn't much care for him but I I don't hate Obama, and have never hated Obama. Just because I've criticized his policies doesn't mean I hate him. Every time you ascribe to me with certainty beliefs and motives that are clearly wrong, I realize that since you're so wrong about things like that, where I know you're wrong, then you must be equally wrong about other things about which you're equally certain. Actually, your description above is hilarious. Not only do you have Trump-derangement syndrome, you also clearly have Xenakis-derangement syndrome. You ought to go see a doctor and get that treated.
01-21-2017, 09:48 PM
(01-20-2017, 11:25 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Trump's speech was not at all like FDR. FDR was no isolationist. Trump's speech was as if the DNA of Lindburgh and Coughlin were brought to life and recombined into a great Orange Monster. Imagine an alternate history where the America Firsters won the '36 or even '40 election. Except this time around we live in a world of warfare under high tech conditions, and the major players are all armed with WMD including thermonuclear devices. If there's going to be a major nuclear war - say between China and India over Asia, or between Russia and the EU over Eurafrica - I for one would be happier staying out of it. Fortunately for us, we're the only nuclear power in the Americas.
01-21-2017, 11:07 PM
*** 22-Jan-17 World View -- India begins deploying its 'Cold Start' military strategy against Pakistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** India begins deploying its 'Cold Start' military strategy against Pakistan **** ![[Image: g170121b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170121b.jpg) Indian Army T-90S tanks on parade Reports indicate that India is preparing to deploy 460 high-tech battle tanks along its border with Pakistan, in order to implement its "Cold Start" military strategy. The Cold Start strategy has been discussed for years, although India has wavered between denying it and acknowledging it at different times. The Cold Start strategy would be used when India wants to perform lightning "Blitzkrieg" military operation with conventional (non-nuclear) on Pakistani soil for whatever reason -- such as to retaliate for a jihadist terror attack. In its current configuration, could not mount such an attack in less than a few weeks, giving Pakistan time to a nuclear counterattack, which would force India to back down in most cases. In the Cold Start scenario, India's army would be prepared to launch an invasive attack almost immediately. The objective would be to meet the military objective within a week, before Pakistan would have time to launch nuclear retaliatory strikes. Despite years of discussion and denial, the Cold Start strategy hasn't been implemented because it's too expensive. It requires such things as high-tech armor including tanks, attack helicopters, and multiple rocket launchers with a 100 km range, and they have to be on alert at all times. It also requires sophisticated intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities that India does not currently have. India already maintains a sizable tank force along the Pakistan border, but with decades-old technology. The reported purchase of hundreds of high-tech Russian tanks suggests that India is finally moving ahead with its Cold Start strategy. Relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated significantly during 2016 because of repeated violence during anti-India protests in India-controlled Kashmir. India blamed the violence on Pakistan, while Pakistan denied responsibility. Russia Today and The Diplomat **** **** Unintended consequence: Cold Start strategy may trigger nuclear war **** The objective of the Cold Start strategy is to be able to complete attain a military objective quickly with a "Blitzkrieg" attack using conventional weapons, without risking a nuclear war. However, some India analysts are saying that the strategy may have the unintended consequence of making a nuclear war more likely. According to defense analyst Nitin Mehta: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The Cold Start doctrine essentially will prepare for > the next wars, which will emerge on short notice, will be of short > duration, and will be fought at high tempo and intensity. The > doctrine would mean combined operations by air, land and sea > forces, which will require greater coordination headed by a senior > military official."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Gurmeet Kanwal, also a retired Indian Army brigadier and defense analyst, said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Indian political and military leaders and strategic > analysts believe that there is clear strategic space for a > conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold because nuclear > weapons are not weapons of war fighting. They are convinced that > for Pakistan, it would be suicidal to launch a nuclear strike > against India or Indian forces, as it would invite massive > retaliation."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Both of these analysts advise caution because of the assumptions being made in the context of a very high risk and very costly strategy. The strategy is based on the questionable assumption that a rapid military action by massive armored attacks will deter Pakistan from launching nuclear counter strikes in retaliation. In fact, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaj Asif completely rejects those assumptions: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We will destroy India if it dares to impose war on > us. Pakistan's army is fully prepared to answer any misadventure > of India. We have not made atomic devices to display in a > showcase. If a such a situation arises we will use it (nuclear > weapons) and eliminate India."<END QUOTE>[/indent] China Topix and Defense News Related Articles
**** **** Russia and India declare their love for each other **** India's prime minister last week said in a speech: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Russia is an abiding friend. President Putin and I > have held long conversations on the challenges that confront the > world today. Our trusted and strategic partnership, especially in > the field of defense has deepened."<END QUOTE>[/indent] At a meeting in October of last year, Sergei Chemezov, CEO of Russia's Rostec State Corporation and a close aide to Russia's president Vladimir Putin, said that Russia will always stand by India: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We are ready not just to deliver the most serious > weapons, and the most important weapons, but continue to give our > state of art technology. > > Russia is a friend, an ally [of India] and not a business > partner. Russia stood by India during its darkest hours. Next year > will mark 70 years of our relationship. It has been a long time. > In the not so recent past, when India was under sanctions, we were > pretty much the only partner for India. > > Russia has been a partner not only in every day military supplies > but also in the most sensitive and most important supplies, > including a nuclear submarine which was rented to India for you to > use."<END QUOTE>[/indent] China and Pakistan also have a deep love relationship. As I've reported in the past, China and Pakistan describe their relationship as "all-weather friends," "deeper than the deepest ocean," "sweeter than honey" and "dearer than eyesight." As I've been writing for many years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the world is headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war, where China's allies will include Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries, and America's allies will include India, Russia and Iran. Russia and India Report and India Today (23-Oct-2016) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Russia, Cold Start, Nitin Mehta, Gurmeet Kanwal, Khawaj Asif, Sergei Chemezov Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
01-21-2017, 11:13 PM
Pakistan's nuclear weapons take a week to launch?
01-22-2017, 06:22 AM
(01-21-2017, 11:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Pakistan's nuclear weapons take a week to launch? It's a little obscure, but I think the issue is that it would take several days for Pakistan to decide whether to use nuclear weapons in response to a small, quick military action using conventional weapons. As the analysts I quoted point out, it's a highly risky strategy, based on assumptions that may not be true.
01-22-2017, 10:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-23-2017, 05:45 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 23-Jan-17 World View -- Explosive Israeli policy decisions reportedly put on hold at Trump's request
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Explosive Israeli policy decisions reportedly put on hold at Trump's request **** ![[Image: g170122b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170122b.jpg) Israeli Arabs in the Oslo Generation (Reuters) Two potentially explosive policy decisions related to Israel and the Mideast have been put on hold, reflecting the recognition by both the American and Israeli administrations of the need for caution:
Internationally, the pressure on Israel is in a bit of a lull right now. The knife and car attacks and other attacks by young Palestinians on Israelis that were surging in 2015 have subsided, while the tensions over the so-called "peace process" have subsided because the international focus is on the wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. So the delay in implementing these two explosive policy decisions is welcome because it continues this relative lull for a while longer. Decisions like these should not be implemented without two things:
NBC News and AP **** **** Israel prepares for the Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' **** As long-time readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. There is no guarantee that Israel will survive this war. Politicians often get confused about who's in charge, and believe that they control events. As I've written many times, it's a core principle of generational theory that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people, and that politicians are irrelevant except insofar as they're implementing the wishes of the masses of people. In the case of the Palestinians, the average age is less than 20 years old, meaning that major events will be determined not by the 80 year old politicians, but by the masses of teens and 20-somethings. This is the "Oslo generation" that I've described in the past. These kids were all born after the 1993 Oslo accords that were supposed to bring peace to the Mideast, but are perceived as accomplishing nothing. These kids feel angry and frustrated, they do not trust their leaders, and they are willing to do what they can to "get things done." Nationalist feelings are extremely high at the present time among both the Palestinians and Israelis. This is exactly the kind of climate that leads to both sides setting red lines and taking harsh steps that lead to tit-for-tat reprisals and revenge. That's why the best policy now is the cautious policy, one that is least likely to result in retaliation and revenge, and to use the time available to prepare for the inevitable war that cannot be prevented. Arab News Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, West Bank, Maaleh Adumim, Oslo Generation Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
01-23-2017, 10:50 PM
*** 24-Jan-17 World View -- Russia will build major naval base in Tartus Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Trump may permit US military cooperation with Russia in Syria **** ![[Image: g170123b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170123b.jpg) Port of Tartus, Syria, to become a major Russian naval base (Reuters) The prize for bizarre story of the day on Monday had to do with whether the US and Russian militaries were cooperating in Syria to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). According to Russian reports, US military intelligence was providing the Russia military with coordinates that Russian warplanes could use to strike ISIS targets. However, soon after the Russian claims were made, American officials were calling them Russian disinformation, and an American military spokesman called the Russian statement "rubbish." Next, President Trump's press secretary said that the US is willing to "work with any country that shares our interest in defeating ISIS," including Russia. The problem is that the Russians really don't care much about ISIS, as their only interest is to keep Syria's president Bashar al-Assad in power, while Trump's only interest is in keeping his campaign pledge to destroy ISIS. So it's an interesting development that the door has been left open for the US and Russia to cooperate militarily in Syria. However, it is true that Russia and Turkey have been coordinating air strikes against ISIS targets. As readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that the US, Iran and Russia will be allies in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, and Turkey will not be an ally. AP and Russia Today and International Business Times Related Articles
**** **** Russia will build major naval base in Tartus Syria **** For the first time in decades, Russia is coming back as a major military naval power in the Mideast, now that Russia and Syria have signed a long-term agreement to build a large naval base in Tartus, Syria, on the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, the agreement allows Russia to expand its Hmeymim airbase in Latakia in Syria. According to the agreement, Russia can station up to 11 warships, including nuclear-powered warships, at Tartus. The facility will be completely controlled by Russia. It is immune from "search, requisition, arrest or executory measures" by Syrian officials. According to Andrey Krasov, head of the State Duma's Defense Committee, the only purpose of the naval base is to fight terrorism: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Russia needs this base to be present in this region. > Unlike NATO, the Russian Federation is the guarantor of security > in the world. In Syria, we fight against international terrorism > not only by words, but also by deeds. Both Russian Aerospace > Defense Forces and Russian Navy’s ship groups demonstrate their > professionalism, high qualifications in supporting the Syrian > Armed Forces in the fight against terrorism. We are doing > everything possible in order for long-suffering Syria to be > cleansed from this plague ― international terrorism. > > When in the 1990s we did not hold any drills and closed our bases > one by one ― in Cam Ranh (Vietnam), in Cuba ― no one cared about > this, everybody was clapping their hands. And now, when we rose > from our knees, when we started to actively train our forces - and > we are doing this on our own territory - our defense-industrial > companies produce the most modern weapons, and no other army in > the world has such equipment and such weapons - this worries > someone. We are worried, however, that NATO is approaching our > borders. We do not get closer to anybody, but by these actions, we > are returning the positions lost earlier, we are returning our > presence in this region."<END QUOTE>[/indent] However, Krasov was contradicted by Igor Korotchenko, a Russian military expert, who says that the base will actually have a much larger purpose than just fighting terrorism: "It will make it possible for Russia to keep control of the entire Mediterranean region, i.e. the Middle East, North Africa and NATO’s southern borders. In terms of military strategy, it gives big possibilities for control over the most important geopolitical processes in the region. ... The mere fact of the presence of Russian warships and submarines, especially those armed with Kalibr cruise missiles, will make it possible to keep control of the entire region and repel any threats." Deutsche Welle and Tass and Straits Times and Tass Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Turkey, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Tartus, Latakia, Hmeymim airbase, Andrey Krasov, Igor Korotchenko Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Well, their main warm water port is in Sevastopol, on the Black Sea. Since they don't control the Turkish Straits (Bosporus/Sea of Marmara/Dardanelles), it behooves them to have forces in the eastern Mediterranean to at least be able to pressure the Turks on the other end. Even then they're still kinda bottled in since they don't control Gibraltar or the Suez Canal either. Even their other main ports in the Baltic, the Barents Sea, the White Sea, the Sea of Japan, and the Sea of Okhotsk, in addition to weather issues, don't open directly onto the oceans (other than the Arctic) and are subject to blockade and interdiction by a hostile power.
Unrestricted access to the open ocean has been a longstanding geopolitical issue for Russia, and they're still far away from attaining it. Barring drastic global warming (which could be an issue further down the line), I don't see them achieving it anytime soon.
01-24-2017, 11:13 PM
*** 25-Jan-17 World View -- Russia, Iran, Turkey sign farcical Syria peace agreement
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia, Iran, Turkey sign farcical Syria peace agreement **** ![[Image: g170124b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170124b.jpg) Politicians shake hands and congratulate each other at Tuesday's conclusion of the Syria peace negotiations (AP) What's wrong with this picture: There's a civil war in Syria between the Shia/Alawites versus the Sunnis. On Tuesday, Russia, Iran and Turkey signed a peace agreement. The thing that's wrong with this picture is that nobody from Syria signed the agreement. It was an agreement among outsiders, and did not include any parties who are nominally the opponents in Syria's civil war. The peace talks were held in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan. Syrian civil war peace talks in the past were held in Geneva, so having these talks in Astana gives that "this time it's different" feeling to the meeting. Another reason it's different is that the United States was not invited to the peace talks, largely because Iran opposed having the US present. However, the US was permitted to have an observer, and sent George Krol, the U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan. The US issued a statement saying that it welcomed any "actions that sustainably de-escalate violence and reduce suffering in Syria." However the main reason, according to analysts, that this time it's different is that Russia is making it clear that it's willing to enforce a peace in Syria, so that it will get the credit for bringing about peace. In fact, Russia is so eager to enforce a peace that on Tuesday, for apparently the first time ever, Russia publicly bashed Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for breaching the ceasefire and lying about it. This has to do with a region called Wadi Barada in the suburbs of Damascus, that's under the control of anti-Assad rebels. Al-Assad's forced, aided by Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah forces, have been breaching the ceasefire, attacking the anti-Assad rebels around Wadi Barada. Al-Assad claimed that it was al-Qaeda forces that were attacking the rebels, but the Russians called him out, essentially calling him a liar. Readers may recall that in 2015, al-Assad's army was close to complete collapse, and was only saved by massive Russian intervention. This was confirmed on Tuesday by Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who said that al-Assad and Damascus itself were only three weeks away from falling, which was prevented only because the Russian air force came and saved him. So the Russians have hallucinatory belief that they're going to enforce a ceasefire across Syria, including al-Assad's army, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front, recently renamed Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS), and any of the numerous anti-Assad rebel groups in Syria. Russia is going to enforce a ceasefire among all those groups, Syria will return to "normal," and Russia will get all the credit for bringing peace to the land. It's hard not to laugh. Washington Post and Guardian (London) **** **** Syria peace conference sees a return to 'proximity talks' **** It's almost hard to believe, but we're seeing "proximity talks" again. In Astana, the al-Assad representatives were supposed to meet face to face with the anti-Assad rebel representatives. On Monday, they all sat around a nice oval table, so they could negotiate. So then the lead rebel negotiator Mohammed Alloush, called the Syrian government a "bloody, oppressive regime" that forced Syrians to choose between "the terrorism of Bashar and the terrorism of ISIS," implying that al-Assad is worse terrorist than ISIS. Syria's lead negotiator, Bashar Jaafari, responded by calling Alloush the head of the "armed terrorist groups’ delegation." So that was the end of the face to face talks between the al-Assad and rebel representatives. After that, they were put into separate rooms, and the farcical "proximity talks" started. I described how this works in the context of the January 2014 peace negotiations. Instead of talking to each other, a mediator carries messages back and forth between the two sides, in the hopes of reaching an agreement that way. So you have people saying that the Astana talks are a "breaktrhough" because the two sides are finally talking to each other, but in fact they aren't talking to each other. AP and The Diplomat and ARA News (Syria) Related Articles
**** **** The aftermath of the destruction of Aleppo **** Let's review. Last year, al-Assad's military, supported by overwhelming destructive force provided by Russia and Iran, was going to destroy the city of Aleppo. That was going to end the war because it would demoralize the opposition groups and jihadists so they would lose interesting in fighting, and would go home. At the time, Bashar al-Assad called it "history in the making": > [indent]<QUOTE>"[The liberation of Aleppo was] history in the making > and worthy of more than the word congratulations. > > History is being written in these moments. Every Syrian citizen is > taking part in the writing. It started not today, but years ago > when the crisis and the war on Syria began. > > I think that after the liberation of Aleppo we’ll talk about the > situation as ... before the liberation of Aleppo and after the > liberation of Aleppo."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Well, nobody is talking about the destruction of Aleppo as "history in the making" any more. It was pure fantasy by al-Assad. Al-Assad destroyed Aleppo, but nobody seems to have gone home. There's a ceasefire in effect, but how long before it falls apart? I've been writing about this war for years. Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and this war should have fizzled within a year. But Bashar al-Assad's goal is extermination of Syria's Sunnis, as I've been describing for years. It's worth remembering how we got here. The civil war in Syria was caused by al-Assad when he unleashed his army and air force against peaceful protesters in 2011. Up to that point, Turkey and Saudi Arabia were friendly with al-Assad. Things really turned around in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children Palestinians. Al-Assad's unprovoked attack on this refugee camp, and the slaughter of thousands of Palestinian women and children, drew young jihadists from around the world to Syria to fight al-Assad, resulting in the formation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Sunnis in Syria itself turned against al-Assad, forming either "moderate" rebel militias or joining the jihadist Al-Nusra Front. Al-Assad is responsible for displacing millions of Syrians, including over a million that have flowed into Europe as refugees. So let's suppose that the Astana peace negotiations "succeed" in some sense, and the ceasefire continues for a while. What's going to happen when Syrians begin peacefully protesting again? Is al-Assad going to ignore it this time? How long will Russia's military be willing to continue spending blood and money to enforce the ceasefire? A ceasefire cannot work unless both sides want it to work. In this case, neither side wants it to work. What has always been clear to me is that al-Assad started this war and is the driving force behind continuing the war. As long as al-Assad is in power, the war will continue. ARA News (Syria) and LA Times Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Astana, Kazakhstan, George Krol, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Sergei Lavrov, Mohammed Alloush, Bashar Jaafari, proximity talks, Aleppo Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
01-25-2017, 11:20 PM
*** 26-Jan-17 World View -- Dow surges past 20,000, further expanding dangerous Wall Street bubble
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Dow surges past 20,000, further expanding dangerous Wall Street bubble **** ![[Image: g170125c.gif]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170125c.gif) S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 24.71 on Jan 20, indicating a huge and growing stock market bubble (WSJ) President Donald Trump and the "Trump effect" are being given credit for pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average past 20,000 on Wednesday, for the first time in history. The credit is being given to Trump because of the excitement generated by his election victory and his divisive moves in the direction of rolling back regulations that have hampered businesses and job creation. The operative word is "excitement." There's little or nothing of real economic fundamentals that justify this continually growing stock market bubble. Central banks around the world have been printing money and pumping it into the banking system. Investors borrow that money and use it to buy stocks and sell them to each other, pushing up stock prices and stock market indexes. Furthermore, this was going on in the Barack Obama administration as well as the Trump administration. Stock market bubbles have no connection to politicians, either conservative or liberal. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (Jan 20) was at an astronomically high 24.71. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market bubble is still growing, and could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower. There's a lot of Schadenfreude going around about the election night New York Times blog entry by Paul Krugman, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics because of his hatred of President George Bush. After Donald Trump's election victory, Krugman wrote: > [indent]<QUOTE>"It really does now look like President Donald > J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to > recover? > > Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my > specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many > aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of > things to fear. > > Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when > markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never. > > Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man > who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the > nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad > news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the > fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight > years after the great financial crisis."<END QUOTE>[/indent] What this goes to show is what an idiot Krugman is, but not because he's wrong about "fundamentally fragile state" of the world. He's actually right about that, and that's consistent with the Generational Dynamics view of the world. And that's particularly ironic, because Krugman is agreeing the thrust of Trump's inauguration speech, which linked America today to the economic hardships of the 1930s. What makes Krugman a total idiot is that he thinks that he can time the market. You'd think that the Nobel prize winner in economics would know that he can't write a column late at night predicting stock prices the next day and expect to get them right. But then again, Krugman didn't get his Nobel prize in economics because he's a good economist. The loons in Sweden gave it to him because they hated Bush and they wanted to give it to someone else who hated Bush as much as they did. So Krugman and the loons in Sweden deserve each other. An economist would /should know that you can't predict the timing of a stock market panic and crash. I always like to point out that even today, 87 years after the stock market panic of October 1929, nobody knows why it happened at exactly that time, and not three months earlier or five months later, and what triggered the 1929 panic. It's still a mystery. A P/E ratio of 24.71 is astronomically high. And since stock prices have surged since Friday morning, the P/E ratio after Wednesday's close is probably now above 25. We can't predict exactly when a stock market panic will occur, or what will trigger it, but we can predict with 100% mathematical certainty that a panic and crash will occur, and by the Law of Mean Reversion, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will fall from its current level of 20,000 to a low below 3,000, wiping out millions of people's savings. CNBC and Bloomberg and NY Times (9-Nov-2016) Related Articles
**** **** China desperately imposes controls on capital outflows **** With the world's economies interlocked, the trigger for a Wall Street panic and crash needn't necessarily come from the United States. A financial panic in any major world economy could create a chain reaction that would affect all world economies. In China, there's already a panic of sorts going on, as wealthy Chinese have been converting their fortunes from China's yuan currency into dollars or other foreign currencies, and then using those dollars to purchase assets outside China. In that way, Chinese investors protect themselves from a currency or stock market crash within China. This has resulted in huge outflows of China's yuan currency, as much as $1.3 trillion in the last four months of 2016. As more and more investors sell their yuan currency, the yuan weakens and its exchange rate becomes less and less favorable against the dollar. The value of the yuan lost 7% against the dollar in 2016. In the last few months, the yuan fell at its fastest rate since 1994. Chinese investors, seeing the yuan weaken, then become anxious and convert more yuan into dollars in order to preserve value. This can create a vicious cycle that leads to a full-scale currency panic that would affect China's entire economy. As a result, China at the beginning of January issued regulations designed to clamp down on currency outflows. Chinese investors will be strictly limited in the amount of money that they can convert to dollars, and even then they must sign a pledge that the funds "will not be used for overseas purchases of property, securities, life insurance or any other insurance of an investment nature." China's government says that these are not really capital controls, but are meant to prevent investment in terrorist activities abroad. However, these new regulations are having a chilling effect on international investors considering investments in China. A person is not going to be willing to send dollars into China to invest in a business if they're concerned that they'll lose all their money because Chinese regulators won't let them take it out of China later. China's new capital outflow limitations are a move of desperation that will not work forever. China Daily (5-Jan) and Radio Free Asia and Business Insider and Reuters Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Price/earnings ratio, Trump Effect, Paul Krugman, Law of mean reversion, China, currency controls Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
01-26-2017, 11:47 PM
*** 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America **** ![[Image: g170126b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170126b.jpg) Battery of Chinese DF-41 missiles China has deployed a brigade of Dongfeng-41 nuclear ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) systems near the Amur River, which separates China from Russia's Far East. China's Global Times describes the deployment, and also gives some insight into the what China's leadership thinks: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Before Trump took power, his team showed a tough > stance toward China, and in turn, Beijing will ready itself for > pressures imposed by the new US government. It is logical that > Beijing attaches particular importance to the Dongfeng-41 as a > strategic deterrence tool. With China's rise, China's strategic > risks are growing. China bears the heavy task of safeguarding > national security. Nuclear deterrence is the foundation of China's > national security, which must be consolidated with the rising > strategic risks. > > The US has the world's most powerful military strength, including > the most advanced and powerful nuclear arsenal. But Trump has > called for a nuclear arms build-up many times. Even Washington > feels that its naval forces and nuclear strength are lacking, so > how can China be content with its current nuclear strength when it > is viewed by the US as its biggest potential opponent? > > China's nuclear capability should be so strong that no country > would dare launch a military showdown with China under any > circumstance, and such that China can strike back against those > militarily provoking it. A military clash with the US is the last > thing China wants, but China's nuclear arsenal must be able to > deter the US. > > The US has not paid enough respect to China's military. Senior US > officials of the Asia-Pacific command frequently show their > intention to flex their muscles with arrogance. The Trump team > also took a flippant attitude toward China's core interests after > Trump's election win. Enhancing communication and mutual > understanding is not enough. China must procure a level of > strategic military strength that will force the US to respect > it."<END QUOTE>[/indent] China has had missiles deployed on Russia's borders for decades, but the deployment of the new DF-41 missiles is causing anxiety in Russia, who fear that the new missiles are meant for Russian targets. Russia's state media have been full of articles to reassure the public. Russian military expert Konstantin Sivkov says that the missiles could not possibly be targeting China: > [indent]<QUOTE>"China has deployed inter-continental ballistic > missiles near Russia with the aim to be able to reach targets in > the US, Canada and Europe. > > This is an inter-continental class missile with an effective > range of 10,000 to 12000 kms. The missile's dead zone is no less > than three thousand kms. A large territory of Russia, practically > the entire Far East and West Siberia are not within the missile's > reach. > > If that were the purpose, the missiles should have been stationed > deep inside mainland China or on its southern > border."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The last statement is somewhat ironic, since apparently two additional brigades of DF-41 missiles have been deployed, and those brigades are deep inside mainland China, and presumably could strike much of Russia. Even the brigade on Russia's northeastern border could still strike Moscow, which is in the west. Each DF-41 ICBM can carry ten independently targetable warheads, with a maximum speed close to 20,000 mph. By deploying an ICBM brigade on the Amur River, the missiles could attack the US by going over the North Pole, and could hit any target in the US, while remaining out of range of the defensive Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system that the US is deploying in South Korea. The nominal purpose of the THAAD system, according to the US, is to protect the US from a North Korean missile launch. However, everyone believes, undoubtedly correctly, that the bigger purpose of the THAAD system is as a first line of defense to a Chinese missile attack on the United States, but the THAAD system could not defend against China's new missile deployment. Global Times (Beijing) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Daily Mail (London) and Russia Today and Japan Times Related Articles
**** **** Centuries-old Russia-China border dispute could lead to another war **** The Amur River that forms part of the border between China and Russia's Far East has been the site of wars between the two people for centuries. The first conflict began in 1628 when the Russians invaded a territory inhabited by a Mongol-related ethnic group. The Russians and the Mongols had already fought many long, bitter wars following the conquests of Genghis Khan in the 1200s, but that wasn't the motivation for this invasion. The motivation for the 1628 invasion was fur, gold and silver. The most recent war in this region occurred in the 1960s, and is known as the Damansky Incident. On March 2, 1969, border units of the Soviet Union and China clashed on Damansky Island, gaining control of the island. Militarily, the Damansky Incident was a small operation, but symbolically and politically it's been extremely important. The fighting generated worldwide concern, over fears that China and Russia would escalate the fight into nuclear war. The United States sided with China in the clash, causing China to have much more favorable relations with the US. In fact, this incident is thought to be the trigger that led to President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger successfully developing diplomatic relations with China in 1971. As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, Russia and the United States will be allied against China. I've given many reasons for this, but the tensions along the Amur River provide another one. Russia's Far East is a vast sparsely populated region. Across the Amur River is heavily populated northeast China. By some estimates, there are about 5 million illegal Chinese immigrants living in Russia's Far East, with the number increasing by a million or so each year. The 1969 border war is well remembered by both sides, so the new DF-41 missile deployment is stoking strong nationalistic feelings on both sides. Since 2012 China has increased spending on infrastructure along the Amur River border region, to make it easier for Chinese businesses to operate. This supports the rapid growth of Chinese trade in the thinly populated Far East and confirms Russian fears that Chinese businesses and Chinese migrants will take over Russia's Far East before long. In 2014, Russia held the massive Vostok military exercises in the Far East, explaining that the military drills were necessary to prepare for war with the United States. And yet, the assets deployed during this exercise were more consistent with preparing for a defense of the Far East, a region that America would be unlikely to invade if it wanted to invade Russia at all. The only state actor that against which such a defense is needed is China. And so it appears that Russia and China claim that they're each preparing for war with the United States, but in reality they're preparing for war with each other. Russia Behind the Headlines (2-Sep-2015) and American University and Strategy Page and The Diplomat Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Dongfeng-41, Russia, Far East, Amur River, Konstantin Sivkov, Damansky Incident, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, South Korea Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
01-27-2017, 10:19 AM
I still question if that issue is going to be salient within the present turning. If it really wanted to directly acquire mineral-rich, barely habitable territory, why wouldn't it start with, say, Mongolia? Small population, big territory, historic claims, lots of resources, no nukes, etc. Going straight for nuclear war seems a bit of a drastic step. Even Hitler built up to invading Russia gradually, with lots of trial runs in Czechoslovakia, Poland, Austria, France, Norway, the Netherlands...
A few decades from now, maybe, but not? Color me skeptical.
01-27-2017, 12:40 PM
(01-26-2017, 11:47 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The most recent war in this region occurred in the 1960s, and Who had control before Soviet and Chinese border units clashed there? Japan?
01-27-2017, 01:27 PM
(01-27-2017, 12:40 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(01-26-2017, 11:47 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The most recent war in this region occurred in the 1960s, and It's an inland island on a river (not near the ocean) ... there have been claims to it by both Russia & China back to the 1600's.
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse." "How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
01-27-2017, 02:01 PM
Manchukuo had roughly the same boundaries as the region in Modern China, I think their border stopped at the river. The Japanese did cross the river lower down, when they fought the Battle of Lake Khasan with the Soviets, and the Red Army did invade back over the river when they fought the Kwantung Army in 1945.
All in all, it's a point of contention between China and Russia (however defined), and I don't there have been any other claimants in a long time.
01-27-2017, 05:25 PM
(01-27-2017, 10:19 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: > I still question if that issue is going to be salient within the If that's true, then why is China building illegal artificial islands and military bases in the South China Sea, and why is China threatening Japan over the Senkaku islands?
01-27-2017, 05:31 PM
(01-27-2017, 01:27 PM)tg63 Wrote:(01-27-2017, 12:40 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(01-26-2017, 11:47 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The most recent war in this region occurred in the 1960s, and I was being silly. John's wording seemed to imply that he was conveying who ended up with control of the island - I assume either the Soviet Union or China - but it didn't seem actually to convey that.
01-27-2017, 05:33 PM
(01-27-2017, 05:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(01-27-2017, 10:19 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: > I still question if that issue is going to be salient within the What's your theory about their overall strategic plan?
01-27-2017, 05:37 PM
(01-27-2017, 05:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(01-27-2017, 10:19 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: > I still question if that issue is going to be salient within the To secure its sealanes and fisheries? Or is it really just to lull the Russians into a false sense of confidence? |
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