Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Jun-17 World View -- Turkey approves troop deployment to Qatar after split with Saudi Arabia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran says Tehran terror attack was by Iranian nationals in ISIS
  
• Turkey approves troop deployment to Qatar after split with Saudi Arabia
  

****
**** Iran says Tehran terror attack was by Iranian nationals in ISIS
****


Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's mausoleum was one of the targets of Wednesday's terror attack

Iran is vowing quick revenge for a pair of terror attacks that
struck Tehran on Wednesday morning.

First, four gunmen, some dressed as women, burst into Iran's
parliament on Wednesday morning, armed with grenades and explosive
vests. 12 people were killed after two vests had been detonated.
After a five hour standoff, the four attackers were killed by police.

A second, almost simultaneous and highly symbolic attack occurred a
few miles away, when a suicide bomber exploded his vest near the
mausoleum of Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who was the founder of
Iran's Islamic Republic after leading the 1979 revolution. One person
was killed, another wounded.

Five people believed to be planning a third attack were arrested.

The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed
credit for the terror acts, and backed up their claim during the
attack by posting video from inside the parliament building. Iran
later confirmed the claim, by saying that all the attackers were
Iranian nationals who had joined ISIS.

This attack will act as a huge shock to Iranians, who imagined that
they were somehow immune from the jihadist attacks that affect other
countries in the region. ISIS and al-Qaeda had not been very
successful in Iran because it's a mostly Shia Muslim country, making
it difficult for the Sunni jihadist groups to recruit suicide bombers.
However, there is a small community of Sunni Muslims in Iran, and it
appears that ISIS has been able to infiltrate that group.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) blamed the
attack on Saudi Arabia and America:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"World public opinion, especially in Iran, sees the
> fact that this terrorist act was perpetrated soon after the
> meeting of the US president with the heads of one of the
> reactionary regional states that has always supported
> ... terrorists as to be very meaningful."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Iranian officials point out that hours before the attack, Saudi
Arabia's foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir said that Iran must be
punished for alleged interference in the region and support for
terrorist organizations.

The Saudis are likely to be infuriated by the implication that they
were involved, and the terror attack is likely to worsen the already
high tensions in the Gulf region, as well as the vitriolic statements
that Iran and Saudi Arabia make about each other.

A statement by US president Donald Trump carried a mixed message,
expressing sympathy for the victims but suggesting that Iran
itself was to blame:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We grieve and pray for the innocent victims of the
> terrorist attacks in Iran, and for the Iranian people, who are
> going through such challenging times. We underscore that states
> that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they
> promote."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

BBC
and CNN and Fars News (Tehran) and AP

****
**** Turkey approves troop deployment to Qatar after split with Saudi Arabia
****

Qatar continues to suffer economic isolation since Monday,
when Saudi Arabia broke diplomatic relations with Qatar,
closed Qatar's only land border, and closed Saudi airspace
to planes from Qatar. Bahrain, United Arab Emirates (UAE),
Egypt and other Arab countries followed Saudi Arabia's lead.

However, Turkey is strongly supporting Qatar, and criticizing the
Saudi-led effort to isolate Qatar. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan said that Turkey will do everything in its power to help end
the crisis.

On Wednesday, Turkey's parliament fast-tracked a bill to deploy up to
3,000 troops to Qatar. The troops will be stationed at a Turkish
military base in Qatar that was originally set up in 2014, during the
last period of time when Saudi Arabia had broken diplomatic relations
with Qatar.

Although Turkey denies that the plans for a troop deployment are
related to Qatar's split with Saudi Arabia, some analysts suggest that
the purpose of the planned troop deployment was to help forestall a
possible coup attempt in Qatar provoked by the Saudi government.
Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Al Jazeera (Qatar)

Related Articles

• Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis (06-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan gives four-finger 'R4BIA' salute, in signal to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood (18-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Gulf Arab states have major split over Egypt and Iran (06-Mar-2014)
  
  
• Arab League holds annual meeting among bitter splits (26-Mar-2014)
  
  
• Gulf nations paper over their differences for GCC Summit in December (21-Nov-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, Adel al-Jubeir,
Turkey, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Egypt

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Jun-17 World View -- US and Iran headed for military confrontation in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US warplanes strike Iran-backed pro-Syrian forces twice on Thursday
  
• US and Iran headed for military confrontation in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria
  

****
**** US warplanes strike Iran-backed pro-Syrian forces twice on Thursday
****


American-backed forces, Iran-backed forces and ISIS are all headed for a military confrontation in Deir az-Zour (Debka)

US warplanes struck Iran-backed pro-Syrian forces twice on Thursday,
making those the second and third such strikes in the last month.
According to the military, all three of the strikes were for the
protection of American and coalition forces stationed in the al-Tanf
base, on Route 1 on the border between Iraq and Syria.

On Thursday, coalition warplanes destroyed two armed pro-regime
vehicles that were traveling toward the al-Tanf base. They were
inside a "de-confliction zone," as specified by an agreement between
Russia and the US to keep potentially hostile forces separated in
Syria.

Later on Thursday, a US aircraft shot down an armed pro-Syrian
unmanned drone that had dropped munitions in a region occupied by
American and coalition personnel. The munitions did not cause any
casualties.

US Army spokesman Colonel Ryan Dillon said in a statement on
Thursday:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The pro-regime UAV, similar in size to a U.S. MQ-1
> Predator, was shot down by a U.S. aircraft after it dropped one of
> several weapons it was carrying near a position occupied by
> Coalition personnel who are training and advising partner ground
> forces in the fight against ISIS.
>
> The shoot down follows an earlier engagement in the day in which
> Coalition forces destroyed two pro-regime armed technical vehicles
> that advanced toward Coalition forces at At-Tanf inside the
> established de-confliction zone threatening Coalition and partner
> forces.
>
> The Coalition does not seek to fight Syrian regime, Russian or
> pro-regime forces partnered with them. The demonstrated hostile
> intent and actions of pro-regime forces near Coalition and partner
> forces in southern Syria, however, continue to concern us and the
> Coalition will take appropriate measures to protect our
> forces."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There's already been one deadly confrontation, as we reported in May.
A pro-Syrian regime
convoy was headed in the direction of the al-Tanf camp. US warplanes
were scrambled in a "show of force" to dissuade the convoy from
proceeding further. That show of force was only partially successful,
as five of the vehicles continued approaching the base. In response,
American warplanes launched a series of airstrikes against the
military convoy, destroying all the vehicles. CNN and Military.com and ARA News (Syria Kurds)


****
**** US and Iran headed for military confrontation in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria
****

There are numerous different forces operating in Syria and Iraq --
Americans, Turks, Kurds, Syrians, Iranians, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, the
Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). As we've been saying for months, all of these forces
(except ISIS) have been united only in that they were all nominally
fighting against ISIS, albeit with a variety of hidden and conflicting
objectives. Now that that the defeat of ISIS in Raqqa in Syria and in
Mosul in Iraq appears to be increasingly imminent, all of these
different forces will have no one to shoot at except each other.

The main military objective of Iran and the Syrian regime is to have
complete control of a route, such as Route 1, between Baghdad and
Damascus, so that Iran can easily transfer fighters and weapons into
Syria, where they can be used against Sunnis, or handed off to
Hezbollah for attacks on Israel. The US is opposed to allowing this
route to be open.

As ISIS is forced to cede territory, different forces compete to
control that territory, and it appears that the next major
confrontation will be over the oil-rich region surrounding Deir
az-Zour, the largest urban center in eastern Syria. ISIS has moved
fighters fleeing from Mosul and Raqqa into Deir az-Zour, making the
battle for this city likely to be as bloody as the battles for Mosul
and Raqqa. A US-backed coalition of rebel groups are moving in, as
are Syrian and Iran-backed forces, from different directions.

[Note: If you read the media reports, you'll find the name of this
city in English spelled in a large variety of ways: Deir az-Zour =
Deir Ezzor = Deir al-Zour = Deir ez-Zor = Deir Azzour]

Some reports indicate that the US has set up a forward base at al-Zukf
(or al-Zkuf), 70 km northwest of the al-Tanf base. The goal is to be
in position to support its coalition of rebel groups in their battle
against ISIS in Deir az-Zour. There are already been clashes between
these groups and Iran-backed forces. Washington Post and Global Research and Debka

Related Articles

• US and Iran-backed troops head for confrontation at al-Tanf on Iraq-Syria border (05-Jun-2017)
  
  
• US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base (19-May-2017)
  
  
• Turkey builds a northern Syria 'National Army' from Free Syrian Army militias (31-May-2017)
  
  
• Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role (09-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Jordan on alert as ISIS captures more Iraq border towns (23-Jun-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Syria, Deir az-Zour,
al-Tanf, al-Zkuf, al-Zukf,
Iraq, Hezbollah, Russia, Ryan Dillon, Raqqa, Mosul,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Deir Ezzor, Deir al-Zour, Deir ez-Zor, Deir Azzour

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Jun-17 World View -- Execution of two of China's citizens in Pakistan raises concerns about CPEC

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Two Chinese citizens in Pakistan executed ten days after being abducted
  
• Execution of Chinese citizens blamed on Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ)
  
• Concerns grow about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
  

****
**** Two Chinese citizens in Pakistan executed ten days after being abducted
****


Pictures of Chinese couple that were executed by LeJA in Pakistan on Thursday, after being kidnapped on May 24

With thousands of workers and families from China pouring into
Pakistan to work on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),
security for the Chinese communities is becoming an increasing
concern.

On May 24, gunmen dressed as police stopped a car containing two
Chinese nationals, a man and a woman, who were teaching Mandarin at a
private language school in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan's restive
Balochistan province. At the same time, they were studying the Urdu
language at the school.

On Friday, a press release issued by the so-called Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) stated that the two Chinese citizens had
been executed. The group also released a video, which showed two
bodies shot and bleeding on some grassy ground.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said in Beijing,
"Pakistan pays great attention to the protection of Chinese citizens
in the institutions there and made great efforts for their security."

Hua insisted that the abduction and killings were unrelated to CPEC.
Nonetheless, following the abduction, 11 Chinese nationals living in
the town where the abduction occurred were flown to Karachi, and then
back to China.

Pakistani media have been ordered not to report on the killings of the
Chinese citizens, saying that such reports would be "disrespectful" to
the Chinese. But some have evaded the rules by republishing stories
from international news wires. Newsweek Pakistan / AFP and Express Tribune - Pakistan / Reuters and Dawn (Pakistan, 3-Jun) and
Hindustan Times

****
**** Execution of Chinese citizens blamed on Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ)
****

The kidnapping and execution of the two Chinese nationals was claimed
by ISIS, but as usual ISIS is taking credit for something it had
nothing to do with. As ISIS gets closer and closer to defeat in Iraq
and Syria, putting out press releases taking credit for attacks around
the world seems to be the only thing left it can do.

There's little doubt that the perpetrators the Al Alami offshoot of
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJA), which has sworn allegiance to ISIS. LeJ is
a terror group that has vowed to exterminate all Shias in Pakistan,
and has carried out numerous terrorist actions targeting Shias and
Sufis. In November, LeJA attacked a police training facility in
Quetta, killing 61 people, mostly fresh police recruits.

The bad news for China is that LeJ, through its offshoot LeJA, is now
apparently turning its attention from slaughtering Shias and Sufis to
the slaughter of thousands of Chinese workers and families who have
come to Balochistan to work on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC).

Since the May 24 abduction, Pakistani and Chinese authorities had been
trying to rescue the hostages. On Thursday, Pakistan's military
released details of an operation that took place from June 1-3 in a
remote cave system in Mastung, a town north of Quetta. According to
the army, the operation killed 12 "hardcore terrorists, including two
suicide bombers." Pakistani authorities confirmed that the killed
terrorists belonged to LeJA, and said "The operation, carried out from
June 1 to 3, successfully denied the establishment of any direct or
indirect IS-organized infrastructure in Pakistan."

The Pakistani security forces destroyed an explosives facility inside
a cave and recovered a cache of arms and ammunition, including 50
kilograms of explosives, three suicide jackets, 18 grenades, six
rocket launchers, four light machine guns,18 small machine guns, four
sniper rifles, 38 communication sets and ammunition of various types.

During the Mastung operation, the vehicle used in the kidnapping of
the Chinese citizens was found, but not the Chinese citizens
themselves.

Several hours after the details of the Mastung operation were
released, the ISIS announcement of the death of the two Chinese
appeared. Dawn (Pakistan, 8-Jun) and CNN and Dawn (Pakistan)

Related Articles

• Multiple terror bombings cross Pakistan and Afghanistan (13-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Pakistan reels after 60 young police cadets killed in terror attack in Balochistan (26-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Quetta Pakistan terror attack kills 75, while unrest grows in Kashmir (09-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) continues plan to exterminate Shias (03-Nov-2015)
  

****
**** Concerns grow about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
****

Over 10-20 years, at a cost of $46 billion, CPEC will supposedly build
a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect
western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar
in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in
Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. It will have both economic
and military components. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D
and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese
investment, supplies and interests.

Balochistan is Pakistan's largest province, but it's claimed by its
population, mostly from the Baloch ethnic group, is marginalized and
economically disfavored. The Baloch ethnic group has been opposed to
CPEC from the beginning. Balochs are opposed because the project will
result in an inflow of more than 600,000 Chinese people -- Chinese
workers and their families -- diluting that Baloch population. Baloch
activists claim that whatever economic benefits the CPEC project will
bring to Pakistan, most of the benefits will go to the favored Punjab
province. The CPEC project will use up all of Balochistan's natural
resources, and the Baloch people will get nothing from it.

It's not just Balochs who are opposing it. According to S. Akbar
Zaidi, a leading Pakistani economist, is warning that "Another East
India Company is in the offing." The East India Company was a British
business organization that used economic power to effectively colonize
the Indian subcontinent for centuries.

According to Zaidi, Pakistan is prostrating itself to China:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"From the influence of American imperialism for most
> of its existence, Pakistan gave way to Saudi intrusion in
> domestic, cultural and social affairs, and now has prostrated
> itself in front of Chinese imperial designs. ...
>
> Pakistan’s obsession with China and CPEC bodes ill for any sort of
> rapprochement between India and Pakistan unless, of course, only
> if the Chinese initiate such moves, and if it fits into their
> grand design in the region. With China taking over Pakistan,
> providing it with undisclosed amount of investments, any argument
> of increasing trade and economic cooperation between India and
> Pakistan lose all urgency. When you have China, who needs
> India?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The execution of the two Chinese citizens is raising security concerns
among the Chinese as well.

Navy vessels from the People’s Liberation Army have been providing
security escorts to Chinese commercial vessels since November, when
they began docking at Pakistan's Gwadar port, which is the southern
end of the CPEC infrastructure. In the future, the port will house a
detachment of PLA marines, making it China’s second overseas military
base after Djibouti. Hindustan Times and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)

Related Articles

• China launches 'One Belt One Road', raising objections and violent protests (14-May-2017)
  
  
• Massive China-Pakistan CPEC energy project said to end energy crisis 'soon' (23-Mar-2017)
  
  
• China-built railway in Kenya raises questions about 'debt trap diplomacy' (02-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Indians seek Kashmir solutions and blame CPEC intervention from Pakistan and China (22-Apr-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Balochistan, Quetta, Mastung,
China, Hua Chunying, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi Al Alami, LeJA,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Gwadar sea port,
S. Akbar Zaidi, East India Company

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(06-09-2017, 10:47 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Be that as it may, Rezun hinted in "Spetsnaz" that Baluchistan
> might ultimately cease to be proper Pakistani territory and
> instead become a massive base for Russian or joint SCO
> forces. It's convenient to the Persian Gulf and right near the
> Hormuz choke point. Interestingly, this sort of attack could
> become a pretext for such actions ("we need to protect our
> citizens") That's also convenient.

Balochistan is becoming essentially a Chinese colony. I don't see any
way that Russia could wrest Balochistan from China except by winning a
major war against the Chinese and Pakistanis.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Jun-17 World View -- US forces join Philippines forces fighting Abu Sayyaf and Maute Islamist terrorists

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US special forces join Philippine military fighting Islamist terrorists in Marawi
  
• History of Abu Sayyaf and Maute Group in the Philippines
  

****
**** US special forces join Philippine military fighting Islamist terrorists in Marawi
****


Fire rages at several houses following airstrikes by Philippine Air Force bombers on May 27 (AP)

US special forces are providing assistance to Philippine troops
fighting the radical Islamist Maute rebel group in the southern city
of Marawi. The help comes after a growing crisis in Marawi, on the
island of Mindanao, and one day after the bloodiest day of battle so
far, when 30 Philippine soldiers were killed and 40 wounded on Friday
in a 14-hour battle. Dozens more soldiers were killed on Saturday, as
fighting continued.

The drama began on Tuesday May 23 with a botched operation in Marawi
City by the Philippine armed forces to capture terrorist leader
Isnilon Hapilon, the leader of the Islamist terror group Abu Sayyaf,
which has recently pledged allegiance to the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Instead of quickly capturing Hapilon, the soldiers were caught
completely by surprise when they were met by dozens of terrorists in
the Maute terror group, who were backed up by foreign fighters from
Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia. The army now believes that it
unwittingly interrupted a plan by the Maute group to take over the
city and sack it.

At first, president Rodrigo R. Duterte said that the operation would
be concluded quickly, and that there was no ISIS involvement. On
Wednesday, the next day, Duterte declared martial law, saying that the
island of Mindanao was under attack by ISIS. The army sent in
reinforcements, as thousands of residents of Marawi fled from the
city. On Wednesday morning, the army said that no airstrikes would be
required. However, airstrikes began on Wednesday afternoon.

As the days went by, Duterte declared one deadline after another to
recapture Marawi, and so far none of those deadlines has been met.

In the attack, some 500 militants seized large parts of the city while
burning buildings, cutting power and communications lines and taking
hostages. The fighting has so far left dozens of security forces, 20
civilians and hundreds of militant fighters dead. The Maute militants
still control parts of the central city and have as many as 2,000
hostages, according to the Philippine military.

There is currently house to house fighting going on. Air strikes have
flattened the city. The former city of 200,000 has been virtually
emptied, although many people are trapped with no food or water.
Duterte's next deadline for recapture of the city is Monday, June 12.

American special forces troops are not taking part in the ground
fighting. They are providing intelligence and logistics support to
the Philippine army. Inquirer (Philippines) and Rappler (Philippines) and USA Today and ABS-CBN (Philippines, 25-May) and AFP

Related Articles

• Philippines president Duterte cancels 'ceasefire' with Communist Party (31-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** History of Abu Sayyaf and Maute Group in the Philippines
****

A year ago, Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte said he wanted
nothing more to do with the United States, and that he would
henceforth work with China. I wrote at the time that this vow would
never last because the Philippine people would not let it. The United
States has about a 90% favorability rating, while China has more like
a 50% favorability rating. Duterte has had to back off from his vow
time after time, and now with the growing Islamist insurgency, he's
decided that he needs American troops after all, at least in an
advisory capacity.

The radical Islamist Abu Sayyaf Group was founded in 1991 and named
after a mujahideen commander in Afghanistan. It pledged allegiance to
Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda. US forces were deployed to the area in
2002 to help the Philippines military deal with Abu Sayyaf, although
the terror group continued. It became known for a series of
kidnappings of foreigners for ransom and for beheading their captives.

In 2014, the group split into rival factions over the decision of its
leader Isnilon Hapilon to terminate its allegiance to al-Qaeda, and to
swear allegiance to ISIS.

The Maute Group was formed in 2012 by Abdullah Maute (aka Abu Hasan)
and his brother Omar Maute. They began terror acts in 2013, and began
a relationship with Abu Sayyaf in 2015. Today, Abu Sayyaf and the
Mautes have a geographic reach that jihadist groups never had before.

Today, Abu Sayyaf and the Maute group are able to recruit new fighters
from the entire region -- not just the Philippines, but in the large
Muslim populations in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Furthermore, hundreds of jihadists fighters from the region have gone
to Syria to fight Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for his genocidal
acts towards Syria's Sunni population. With ISIS seemingly near
defeat in Syria's Raqqa and Iraq's Mosul, it's believed that many of
these fighters will return to the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia,
and that terrorist actions are going to grow significantly.

The army has claimed that the Maute brothers were killed on Friday in
an airstrike, but this has yet to be confirmed. Reuters and BBC (31-May) and Philippine Star (29-May)

Related Articles

• Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China (23-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Philippines president Duterte orders military to occupy South China Sea islands (07-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Would America not defend Israel after all? (08-Sep-2013)
  
  
• China snubs Philippines on humanitarian aid, then backs down (15-Nov-2013)
  
  
• China's media 'accidentally' claims Philippines as part of China (10-May-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Abu Sayyaf, Maute Group,
Marawi, Mindanao, Isnilon Hapilon, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Jun-17 World View -- Sri Lanka targets radical nationalist Buddhists in Bodu Bala Sena (BBS)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sri Lanka targets radical nationalist Buddhists in Bodu Bala Sena (BBS)
  
• Brief generational history of Sri Lanka and Bodu Bala Sena (BBS)
  

****
**** Sri Lanka targets radical nationalist Buddhists in Bodu Bala Sena (BBS)
****


Buddhist monk Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara sought by police for hate crimes and inciting violence against Muslims (AFP)

Police in Colombo, the capital city of Sri Lanka, on Sunday arrested
five people for instigating religious violence that has led to a
series of violent attacks on Muslims since April. Four of the people
were Buddhists instigating violence against Muslims, while the fifth
was a Muslim accused of defaming Buddhism.

More than 20 hate crime attacks on Muslims have been recorded since
April 17, including arson at Muslim-owned businesses and petrol-bomb
attacks on mosques. The attacks are being blamed on a radical
nationalist Buddhist organization, Bodu Bala Sena (BBS - Forces of
Buddhist Power) that has been conducting violent attacks on Muslim
targets since 2014.

However, only one of the five arrested men is connected to BBS, an
unidentified 32-year-old man directly linked to at least four arson
attacks in a Colombo suburb. The Colombo police are being heavily
criticized because they've been unable or unwilling to arrest the BBS
leader, the Buddhist monk Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara, and many people
believe that the Buddhist Sinhalese government is protecting
Gnanasara, despite his connection to violence against Muslims.

The violence by Buddhist against Muslims in Sri Lanka has not yet
reached the level of mass slaughter, mass torture, and mass rapes
being committed by Buddhists, led by Buddhist monk Buddhist monk Ashin
Wirathu, against Muslim Rohingyas in Myanmar (Burma). Perhaps the two
Buddhist monks, Gnanasara and Wirathu, are in some kind of bloody
contest with each other to see who can be responsible for the most
atrocities. Reuters and AFP

Related Articles

• Communal violence grows in Myanmar (Burma) between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims (16-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Burma (Myanmar) declares state of emergency over Buddhist/Muslim violence (11-Jun-2012)
  

****
**** Brief generational history of Sri Lanka and Bodu Bala Sena (BBS)
****

For 30 years, Sri Lanka's entire society has been dominated by the Sri
Lankan civil war between the ethnic majority (Buddhist) Sinhalese and
the ethnic minority (Hindu) Tamils. This civil war climaxed in May
2009, following reports of genocide on both sides, when the separatist Tamil Tigers surrendered

and renounced further violence, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war.

Every generational crisis civil war follows the same general pattern.
The war climaxes and ends with genocidal acts on both sides that are
so horrible that the traumatized survivors vow to do everything
possible to prevent it from happening again. And they succeed, and a
new civil war only begins decades later when the survivors finally die
off. But during those decades, younger generations, with no personal
memories of the horrors of the war, come of age and begin protests
that sometimes become violent.

The protests start to become widespread during the generational
Awakening era, which begins about 15-18 years after the climax of the
crisis war, and is characterized by protests, sometimes violent, by
college students.

Although it's only been 8 years since the climax of the Sri Lanka
civil war, we're beginning to see the first signs of the violence that
will become widespread in a few years. However, in this case, there's
a twist.

The Sri Lankan civil war was fought between the Buddhist Sinhalese and
the Hindu Tamils. The small Muslim community wasn't really involved,
and according to some reports, they thrived and prospered during the
war, while the other two groups were out killing each other.

The Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) or "Buddhist Power Force" group was formed in
2012 to purify Sri Lanka for the Buddhists by exterminating the
Christians, Hindus and Muslims. However, they've been particularly
focusing on Muslims.

The leader of BBS is the Buddhist monk Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara. In
2014, a video showed Gnanasara delivering an explosive hate speech to
large crowds of Buddhists, full of vicious rhetoric. He pointed out
that the Sri Lankan police and army are Sinhalese, and therefore are
on the side of the Sinhalese, and he screams explicit threats to
Muslims, including using derogatory language. To roars of approval
from the crowd, he vows that if any Muslim, were to lay a hand on a
Sinhalese, that would "be the end" of all of them.

Gnanasara's speech triggered a sectarian bloodbath in the town of
Aluthgama. Shortly after the speech, Buddhist mobs marched through
Muslim neighborhoods, ransacking dozens of homes and shops. Three
Muslim men were killed, and sixteen seriously injured in the two
nights of violence that followed.

Despite his incitement to riot, Gnanasara claims that he and the BBS
had nothing to do with the Aluthgama bloodbath. Now there have been
at least sixteen major incidents since April 17 of this year. Once
again, Gnanasara claims that he and the BBS have nothing to do with
them. Nonetheless, Gnanasara remains in hiding, and the police are
either unable or unwilling to arrest him. Daily Mirror (Colombo) and CNN (17-July-2014) and LankaWeb and The Island (Sri Lanka)

Related Articles

• Sri Lanka Sinhalese Buddhist monks accused of racist hate speech against Hindu Tamils (20-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war (17-May-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka, Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara,
Sinhalese, Buddhists, Tamils, Hindus, Tamil Tigers,
Bodu Bala Sena, BBS, Forces of Buddhist Power, Aluthgama,
Myanmar, Burma, Rohingya Muslims, Ashin Wirathu

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100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Jun-17 World View -- Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon
  
• Differences between Qatar and Saudi Arabia run deep and will worsen
  

****
**** Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon
****


Panic buying of groceries in Doha supermarket last week (Doha News)

Three weeks ago, President Donald Trump's harsh condemnation of Iran
triggered a renewal of the years of vitriolic anger between Saudi
Arabia and Qatar. A week ago, the anger turned into actions with
Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries cutting ties and imposing a
harsh economic blockade on Qatar. Today, positions appear to be
hardening, and it seems very unlikely that the situation will be
resolved soon.

Numerous countries have called for an end to the economic blockade.
Trade is being affected in a number of countries. Qatar Airways has
been blocked from using Saudi and UAE airspace, throwing airline
schedules in the region into confusion. Britain, Germany, Turkey,
Russia, Kuwait, Oman and others have encouraged diplomatic talks or
offered to mediate. The United States administration called for Saudi
Arabia to soften the blockade on humanitarian grounds, at the same
time it called for Qatar to end funding of terrorist organizations.

Qatar's foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani was
defiant, saying that Qatar is willing to negotiate an end to the
impasse, but that no one can dictate its foreign policy, and that "no
one has the right" to pressure Qatar to silence TV network al-Jazeera,
which is based in Qatar's capital city Doha.

Since the split, additional Arab countries have joined the blockade
against Qatar. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and
Egypt have cut relations with Qatar on the first day. Yemen,
Mauritania, the Maldives and the Comoros Islands followed. Chad,
Djibouti, Jordan and Niger downgraded relations without joining the
blockade. Many of these countries receive financial aid from Saudi
Arabia, and it's believed that they cut relations under financial
pressure.

On the other hand, Eritrea on Friday refused to cut diplomatic ties
with Qatar. It issued a statement saying that it had "strong ties
with the brother people of Qatar," and it was "impossible to cut
ties."

Iran has sent five cargo planes to Qatar, each carrying 90 tonnes of
cargo, mostly fruit and vegetables. Three ships containing 350 tonnes
of food items are also being sent to Qatar. Bloomberg and Anadolu and Deutsche Welle

Related Articles

• Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis (06-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar (26-May-2017)
  
  
• Gulf Arab states have major split over Egypt and Iran (06-Mar-2014)
  
  
• Arab League holds annual meeting among bitter splits (26-Mar-2014)
  

****
**** Differences between Qatar and Saudi Arabia run deep and will worsen
****

When al-Thani said, as quoted above, that Qatar was willing to
negotiate, but that no one could dictate its foreign policy, and no
one could pressure al-Jazeera, he was saying that Qatar would not
negotiate on two major causes of the split.

Not dictating its foreign policy meant that Saudi Arabia could not
tell Qatar how to handle its relations with Iran. While Saudi Arabia
and Iran can never have been classified as friendly allies, at least
they were able to tolerate each other for decades until recently.

However, in January 2016, the entire Shia world was shocked that Saudi
Arabia executed well-known Shia cleric Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr
on charges of terrorism, at the
same time that they executed 46 alleged Sunni terrorists. They were
furious that he was executed at all, and also that it implied that
Shia terrorists were no different from Sunni terrorists.

In Tehran, protesters stormed the Saudi embassy, and burned it to the
ground. There were violent Shia protests across the Mideast. As
violent Shia protests spread, Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran.

Relations between Saudi and Iran have gotten even more vitriolic since
then, and the Saudis have adopted the attitude toward Qatar that
"you're either with us or against us," meaning that the Saudis will
not tolerate Qatar having friendly relations with Iran. So when
al-Thani says that no one could dictate Qatar's foreign policy, he was
rejecting any compromise on its relations with Iran.

Al-Jazeera is the powerful news network that supposedly presents an
Arab view around the world. I've always watched al-Jazeera when I
can, because it provides information and a point of view completely
unavailable in the western media. People tell me that al-Jazeera is
biased, and that's true, but they're no more biased than the NY Times
or NBC News. Generational Dynamics analyses require that all points
of view be incorporated, so al-Jazeera provides an important function
a biased point of view from the Arab world.

As I've mentioned several times in the past, one form of al-Jazeera
bias has always seemed surprising. Listening to al-Jazeera, it's
clear that they hate Israel. But that's not surprising. One would
expect al-Jazeera to hate Israel. But what I found surprising is that
al-Jazeera also hates the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas. In
fact, al-Jazeera seems to hate the Palestinian Authority more than it
hates Israel. On the other hand, al-Jazeera loves Hamas, and has
never referred to them as terrorists that I can recall.

So that bias toward Hamas tells a great deal about why Saudi Arabia
hates al-Jazeera, which reflects the foreign policy of Qatar. Hamas
is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a conservative
Sunni Muslim ideology which is in competition with Saudi Arabia's
Salafist Wahhabi conservative Sunni Muslim ideology. Just as Saudi
Arabia and Iran have tolerated each other for decades and gotten along
until recently, the Muslim Brotherhood and Wahhabi ideologies have
tolerated each and gotten along until recently.

But now, Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood ideology is
becoming intolerable to Saudi Arabia, just like Qatar's friendly
relationship with Iran. This is the kind of thing that typically
occurs in a generational Crisis era.

Last week, Germany foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel warned this new
crisis could lead to war, and that "a deep dispute between neighbors
is the last thing that is needed" in the Mideast.

Whether Gabriel likes it or not, a "deep dispute" is what it is, and
it's going to get worse.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. With appropriate generational research and analysis, the split
between the Wahhabis and the Muslim Brotherhood can be used to
determine which ethnic groups will be fighting each other. I
certainly don't have anything like the resources to perform such an
analysis by myself, but any college student interested in this kind of
analysis could make an invaluable contribution to understanding what's
going on in the world today by taking on, as a thesis topic, a
generational analysis of the tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast.
AP and Deutsche Welle (7-June) and Gulf News (10-June) and AP

Related Articles

• Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran as violent Shia protests spread around region (04-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Rift grows between Palestinian Authority and Al-Jazeera (31-Jan-2011)
  
  
• Egypt inflames tensions with Qatar with al-Jazeera reporter verdicts (30-Aug-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Qatar Airways,
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani,
Britain, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Kuwait, Oman,
Yemen, Mauritania, Maldives, Comoros Islands,
Chad, Djibouti, Jordan, Niger, Iran, Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr,
al-Jazeera, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas,
Muslim Brotherhood, Salafist Wahhabi, Sigmar Gabriel

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(06-09-2017, 10:47 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Be that as it may, Rezun hinted in "Spetsnaz" that Baluchistan
> might ultimately cease to be proper Pakistani territory and
> instead become a massive base for Russian or joint SCO
> forces. It's convenient to the Persian Gulf and right near the
> Hormuz choke point. Interestingly, this sort of attack could
> become a pretext for such actions ("we need to protect our
> citizens") That's also convenient.

http://carnegie.ru/commentary/?fa=71205

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Jun-17 World View -- In a major victory for China, Panama switches allegiance from Taiwan to China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In a major victory for China, Panama switches allegiance from Taiwan to China
  
• Taiwan's harsh response signals increasing tension with China
  
• China expected to continue increasing diplomatic pressure on Taiwan
  

****
**** In a major victory for China, Panama switches allegiance from Taiwan to China
****


Panama's vice president Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado meets China's vice president Li Yuanchao in Beijing on Tuesday (Xinhua)

China scored a new diplomatic victory over Taiwan on Tuesday, when
Panama broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan and began diplomatic
relations with China. China will not have diplomatic relations with
any country that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and China uses
its immense economic pressure to get its way.

A joint statement from China and Panama said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Government of the Republic of Panama recognizes
> that only one China exists in the world, the Government of the
> People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government that
> represents all China, and Taiwan forms an inalienable part of
> Chinese territory."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is a complete victory by China over Taiwan. Taiwanese officials
were infuriated by what they saw as Panama's betrayal. Taiwan and
Panama have had 105 years of diplomatic relations. In 2014, Taiwan's
then-president Ma Ying-jeou visited Panama, and was assured by
Panama's president Juan Carlos Varela that maintaining diplomatic
relations with Taiwan is most beneficial to Panama, even though the
trade volume between China and Panama was 22 times that between Taiwan
and Panama.

In June of last year, Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen visited
Panama and Paraguay. Varela's wife, Panama's first lady Lorena
Castillo de Varela, answering a question about whether Panama would
break relations with Taiwan, said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Absolutely not. Our relationship with Taiwan has to
> be respected. First of all, when you have the trust and
> friendship, we value it very much. This is something that has been
> built for many, many years and you take care of that and you
> appreciate it and you keep it. Panama and Taiwan are like brothers
> and sisters."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Well, apparently Varela and his wife didn't appreciate it very much,
in view of Tuesday's announcement. Shanghai Daily and China Post (Taiwan, 7-Oct-2014) and Latin American Herald Tribune and Formosa TV (22-May-2016)

Related Articles

• Following the money, Sao Tome and Principe switches allegiance from Taiwan to China (28-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
  
  
• No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen (05-Dec-2016)
  
  
• How a world war with China would unfold (21-Feb-2014)
  

****
**** Taiwan's harsh response signals increasing tension with China
****

Something that I've been reporting on for over a decade is that China
is losing a battle with time over reuniting Taiwan with China. In
2005, it was already clear from polls on the question "Do you feel
Taiwanese, Chinese or both" that over a period of years, the number of
people answering "Taiwanese" was increasing. The polls also show that
it's the older people who feel "Chinese," and the younger people who
feel "Taiwanese." This is a typical generational situation, where
older generations who survived the last generational crisis war (Mao's
Communist Revolution, 1934-49) were willing to compromise to prevent a
new war, while the younger generations, with no personal memory of the
war, are not willing to compromise.


From 2005: Taiwan poll results to question: 'Do you feel Taiwanese, Chinese or both?' (WSJ)

A poll conducted in June of last year showed overwhelming support for independence from China.

Unification was favored by only 18.4%, with 66.4% opposed. In the
20-29 age group, 72% supported independence.

The surge in support for independence resulted in an overwhelming and historic victory in the presidential election
for Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of the Taiwan's
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in January 2016.
Since Tsai has taken office, relations between China and Taiwan have
been increasingly hostile.

So after Tuesday's announcement that Panama breaking relations with
Taiwan, Tsai was defiant:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Taiwan is committed to preserving Cross-Strait peace,
> but China's move has impacted the status quo. We will not sit idle
> when our national interests are threatened. ...
>
> Coercion and threats will not bring the two sides
> together. Instead they will drive our two peoples apart. On
> behalf of the 23 million people of Taiwan, I declare that we will
> never surrender to such intimidation. ...
>
> Although we have lost a diplomatic ally, our refusal to engage in
> a diplomatic bidding war will not change. Our approach of not
> competing with Beijing’s ‘checkbook diplomacy’ will not change ...
>
> We are a sovereign country. This sovereignty cannot be challenged
> nor traded. China has continued to manipulate the ‘one China'
> principle and pressure Taiwan's international space, threatening
> the rights of the Taiwanese people, but it remains undeniable that
> the Republic of China [Taiwan] is a sovereign country. This is a
> fact China will never be able to deny. ... We won't allow our
> sovereignty to be challenged or be exchanged for
> anything."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Now, this speech by Taiwan's current president brings us to China's
"anti-secession law." This law, passed in 2005, requires China to
invade Taiwan if Taiwan makes any move toward independence, whether by
word or by deed.

So Tsai Ing-wen has refused to endorse the "One-China policy," also
called the "1992 Consensus," which states that there is only one
China, and leaves some ambiguity as to what that means. With Tsai
rejecting the One-China Policy, and now stating that "We won't allow
our sovereignty to be challenged or be exchanged for anything," it is
arguably the case that Taiwan has already taken steps to trigger the
anti-secession law.

Chinese officials must know that time is not on their side. They can
also read the polls that say that as time goes on, more and more
Taiwanese favor independence, and fewer and fewer Taiwanese favor
unification. A war between China and Taiwan is 100% certain, and it
will be at a time of China's choosing. Taipei Times and Washington Free Beacon and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)

Related Articles

• New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China (02-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Taiwan says it must defend against increasingly threatening China (18-Mar-2017)
  
  
• China's 'sacred responsibility' is to stop Taiwan independence by force (28-Dec-2004)
  
  
• Anti-secession law provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
  

****
**** China expected to continue increasing diplomatic pressure on Taiwan
****

At some point, China will decide to take military action, as required
by the anti-secession law. Until that time, China is expected to
continue taking measures to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, even though
such measures are counter-productive, in that they infuriate the
Taiwanese people and increase the support for independence.

With the defection of Panama, there are only 20 countries left
in the world that diplomatically recognize Taiwan:

• Asia-Pacific: Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau,
  Solomon Islands, Tuvalu
  
• Africa: Burkina Faso, Swaziland
  
• Europe: Vatican City
  
• Latin American: Belize, Dominican Republic, El Salvador,
  Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, St Kitts and Nevis,
  Saint Lucia, St Vincent & the Grenadines

Completely apart from the diplomatic issues, China's closer relations
with Panama are an economic coup. China is the heaviest user of the
Panama Canal, and China has invested heavily in Panama's largest port,
Margarita Island, and is developing 1,200 hectares of land around the
canal.

China is expected to target the 20 other countries, one by one. China
has invested heavily in Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, and they
may following Panama soon. Jorge Guajardo, Mexico's former ambassador
to China, tweeted: “Big question is, will Vatican ditch Taiwan for
Beijing?” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Washington Post and Reuters and Foreign Policy


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Li Yuanchao, Panama, Juan Carlos Varela,
Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado, Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou,
Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
One-China policy, 1992 Consensus, Anti-secession law,
Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jorge Guajardo

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Jun-17 World View -- Australia will pay $100K each to asylum seekers in Manus Island immigration camp

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia will pay $100K each to asylum seekers in Manus Island immigration camp
  
• The Manus refugees' future is still undecided - except for those coming to the US
  

****
**** Australia will pay $100K each to asylum seekers in Manus Island immigration camp
****


Manus Island detention center in Papua New Guinea (AAP)

In a major victory for activists supporting refugees and asylum
seekers, Australia's governed settled a case by agreeing to pay
refugees detained on Papua New Guinea's Manus Island up to AUS$150,000
(US $113,248) each. The total bill will be AUS$13.7 billion (US$ ),
including AUS$20 million (US$ million) for the activist law firm that
brought the class action suit on behalf of 1905 refugees being
detained on Manus Island.

In 2013, Australia's prime minister Kevin Rudd announced that any
asylum seeker who arrives by boat without a visa will have "no chance"
of being resettled there as a refugee. Instead, they will be sent
directly to neighboring Papua New Guinea and its Manus Island
detention center. According to Rudd in 2013:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"From now on, any asylum-seeker who arrives in
> Australia by boat will have no chance of being settled in
> Australia as refugees. ... If they are found to be genuine
> refugees they will be resettled in Papua New Guinea — an emerging
> economy with a strong future, a robust democracy which is also a
> signatory to the United Nations refugees convention."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There was a similar agreement with the island nation of Nauru. The
United Nations and pro-refugee activists have condemned the refugee
camps, saying that under international law, valid asylum seekers
should be resettled on Australian soil. Australian leaders responded
that this was the most effective way to save refugees' lives, by
discouraging them from taking a dangerous trip to Australia by boat.

The policy has accomplished its objective. There had previously been
tens of thousands of "boat people" per year arriving in Australia from
Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and other southeast Asian nations. This number
has been reduced significantly.

However, the policy has been extremely controversial, and opposed by
pro-refugee activists. The government of Papua New Guinea (PNG) was
paid by Australia for the costs of detaining the refugees, but there
have been numerous stories of beatings, torture, and sexual abuse at
the detention centers.

A major blow to the Manus Island policy came last year, when PNG's Supreme Court dropped a bombshell,

ruling that Australia's refugee detention center on PNG's Manus Island
is inhumane, and must be shut down. The result is that the Manus
detention center is scheduled to be shut down in October.

Now, the Australian government has been forced to a large settlement
with the Manus Island refugees. The settlement has roiled Australian
politics.

The Refugee Council of Australia says:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Today should be the final nail in the coffin of
> Australia’s abusive warehousing of people who came to us seeking
> safety. This class action settlement provides an opportunity for
> our government to put an end to the destruction of so many
> people’s lives, to the damage it does to Australia’s international
> reputation and to the blank check our government uses to fund
> offshore detention."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, other activists are furious that the settlement wasn't a lot
larger, or that the case was settled at all, without a court trial.
The Refugee Action Coalition said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It’s not sufficient to compensate people for what
> they’ve been through. It would have been far better for the
> public to have heard the evidence from people on Manus Island, to
> see the thousands of pages of evidence of documents that reveal
> the scale of the mistreatment."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Australia's Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, who was responsible for
reaching the settlement agreement, said that a six-month court trial
would have cost tens of millions of dollars in legal bill, and that
there was no admission of liability:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Settlement is not an admission of liability in any
> regard.
>
> The commonwealth strongly refutes and denies the claims made in
> these proceedings.
>
> Labor [the previous government] imposed this cost on Australians
> when it handed control of the nation’s borders to criminal
> people-smuggling syndicates."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Dutton blamed the mess on the previous Labor government, and on the
"ambulance-chasing lawyers" in the Slater & Gordon law firm. Guardian (London) and Peter Dutton's statement and Special Broadcasting Service (Australia)

Related Articles

• Australia pays refugees cash to return home, as U.S. resettlement deal falters (03-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever' (06-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Hundreds of Australian migrants to be resettled in the United States (11-Nov-2016)
  

****
**** The Manus refugees' future is still undecided - except for those coming to the US
****

It seems pretty certain that the whole project of offshore detention
centers is now dead for good. According to Amnesty International:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"While the compensation deal is important, it does not
> remedy the injustices visited upon the refugees and asylum seekers
> on Manus Island or change their present circumstances. The
> Australian government must finally face up to the inescapable
> reality that their offshore detention policies are unsustainable
> and bring all of the people trapped by them to safety in
> Australia.
>
> This settlement is a long overdue but welcome recognition of the
> harm that refugees and people seeking asylum have endured on Manus
> Island. Now, the Australian government must dismantle its illegal
> offshore detention centre and safely resettle these
> people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, the question of how they will be resettled remains to be
determined.

We do know where 1,205 of the refugees are going to be resettled --
they're coming to the United States. In November of last year,
President Barack Obama and Australia's Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
signed an agreement to allow 1,250 refugees being held in the offshore
detention centers to be resettled in the United States.

Early in February, President Donald Trump called it "the worst deal
ever," but promised to honor the deal because he was bound by
agreements made by the previous administration. He confirmed that the
US will take in up to 1,250 of these refugees, after subjecting each
of them to "extreme vetting." An interesting wrinkle to the agreement
is that Turnbull and Obama also agreed that Australia would help the
United States deal with its refugee problem by taking refugees from
Costa Rica and resettling them in Australia.

With the forced closure of the detention centers, Australia must find
a way to deal with the thousands of refugees still in the offshore
detention centers. In addition, the collapse of the offshore
detention center system will undoubtedly encourage a new flood of boat
people from other countries. The plan is to pay the refugees, and
deport them and send them back to their home countries, but this will
certainly be fought in the courts by pro-refugee activists. Amnesty International and CNN

Related Articles

• Australia to send 'boat people' to Papua New Guinea (21-Jul-2013)
  
  
• Papua New Guinea Supreme Court bombshell throws Australia's refugee policy into chaos (30-Apr-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Papua New Guinea, PNG,
Manus Island, Nauru, Peter Dutton, Kevin Rudd,
Amnesty International, Barack Obama, Malcolm Turnbull,
Costa Rica

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Jun-17 World View -- United Nations peacekeeping force in Darfur Sudan to be cut almost in half

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• United Nations peacekeeping force in Darfur Sudan to be cut almost in half
  
• Violence continues as before in Darfur
  
• Brief generational history of the Darfur civil war in Sudan
  

****
**** United Nations peacekeeping force in Darfur Sudan to be cut almost in half
****


One of the many huge refugee camps that house millions of displaced Darfurians

The United Nations Security Council is expected to vote unanimously on
Sunday to approve a resolution to make a substantial reduction in the
Darfur Sudan peacekeeping mission known as UNAMID. Some 8,000
personnel will be withdrawn. According to the resolution:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Resulting in the reduction of the strength of the
> military component by 44% and that of the police component by 30%,
> the closure of 11 team sites in the first phase and the withdrawal
> of the military component from another 7 team sites in the second
> phase, it being understood that the Mission shall retain adequate
> and mobile quick response capabilities to be able to respond to
> security challenges as they arise."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Darfur is a large western province of Sudan containing numerous
dark-skinned ethnic groups usually referred to collectively as
"Africans." While the "Africans" are mostly farmers, the attacks have
been the Janjaweed Militias, recently renamed the Rapid Support Force
(RSF) for political reasons, consisting of light-skinned "Arabs," from
herder ethnic groups. The Janjaweed militias are controlled by
Sudan's government in Khartoum and have been accused of massive
atrocities and genocide. An international arrest warrant has been
issued by the the International Criminal Court on in the Hague for
Sudan's president Omar al Bashir, who has been indicted on war crimes
for the Darfur civil war, and the actions of the Janjaweed militias.
The UN estimates that some 300,000 have been killed in the Darfur
conflict so far, with 2.7 million people displaced from their homes,
living in refugee camps under the protection of UNAMID.

The reason being given for the decision to cut the UNAMID force is
that the amount of violence has gone down, as a result of a successful
and brutal military operation last year by the RSF (Janjaweed
militias) in the region of Jebel Marra in central Darfur.

Actually, there are numerous reports that the violence is continuing
as before. The Jebel Marra offensive was extremely bloody, as
reported by Amnesty International after interviewing hundreds of
witnesses. According to the report:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"In January 2016, Sudanese government forces launched
> a large-scale military campaign in Jebel Marra,
> Darfur. Coordinated ground and air attacks targeted locations
> throughout Jebel Marra until May, when the seasonal rains in
> Darfur intensified, making ground attacks impractical throughout
> most of the area; air operations continued through
> mid-September. ...
>
> Amnesty International interviewed over 200 witnesses of abuses
> carried out by government forces in Jebel Marra between January
> and September 2016. Through these interviews, Amnesty
> International has documented a large number of serious violations
> of international law committed by Sudanese government forces,
> including scores of instances where government forces deliberately
> targeted civilians.
>
> The violations included the bombing of civilians and civilian
> property, the unlawful killing of men, women, and children, the
> abduction and rape of women, the forced displacement of civilians,
> and the looting and destruction of civilian property, including
> the destruction of entire villages.
>
> An estimated 250,000 people have been displaced by violence in
> Jebel Marra. Many remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors and
> vulnerable to further attacks.
>
> The instances of indiscriminate attacks and direct targeting of
> civilians documented in this report amount to war crimes and may
> constitute crimes against humanity."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Sudan Tribune and US State Dept. (18-Feb-2016) and Amnesty International (29-Sep-2016)

Related Articles

• Darfur genocide overshadows women's empowerment summit in South Africa (15-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Darfur on verge of return to full-scale civil war (28-Dec-2014)
  

****
**** Violence continues as before in Darfur
****

I have sympathy for the decision to cut back on the UNAMID
peacekeeping mission, but not because it's already been successful.
Rather, it's been so unsuccessful that it's been shown to be a waste
of money and resources. The Jebel Marra operation by Sudan's RSF
(Janjaweed militias) last year was a huge bloody disaster for UNAMID,
because it's shown how useless UNAMID is. The same is true, as we've
described elsewhere for the peacekeeping missions in Central African
Republic and South Sudan.

Eric Reeves, a Sudan expert from Harvard University, was interviewed
on RFI and provided the following analysis (my transcription):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The security situation hasn't improved at all. The
> nature of insecurity has changed quite a bit with the military
> victory by the Khartoum regime, in Darfur with the Jebel Marra
> offensive of last year.
>
> But as several reports have recently indicated, what's happened is
> that Darfur has been turned into what is called a "malicious
> state." While there is no active rebellion by organized rebel
> forces, the militias that opposed them, as well as the regular
> army, the Sudan armed forces, continue to attack civilians, and
> are bent on emptying camps for internally displaced persons, which
> hold 2.7 million overwhelmingly African non-Arab Darfuris, and
> there are 300,000 Darfuri refugees, again overwhelmingly non-Arab
> African in Eastern Chad, too fearful to return to what were their
> homes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

A detailed report from the Sudan Liberation Movement, covering the
period from Dec 15, 2016, to March 15, 2017, confirms this assessment:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The absence of security and the increasing levels of
> violence against civilians in Darfur manifests in many ways. As
> the facts and figures contained in this report show, the rate and
> pattern of violence, such as killings; rapes; abductions; torture;
> looting; burning of villages, market places, and farms; and
> attacks on IDP camps, have increased such that they now occur on
> daily basis. This deteriorating situation was also quite aptly
> reflected statement made by the US Ambassador Nikki Haley during a
> UNSC briefing on Darfur (May 4, 2017) as well as in the press
> release issued by the U.N. Secretary General following that
> meeting."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The report goes on to document recent uses of chemical weapons, recent
use of systematic rape as a weapon, and attacks on UNAMID by the
Sudanese forces. Sudan Tribune
and Nuba Reports

****
**** Brief generational history of the Darfur civil war in Sudan
****

About ten years ago, during the mid-2000s decade when much of the
development of generational theory was going on, the Darfur war was of
intense interest, because it was one of only two generational crisis
wars going on in the world at the time, the other one being the war in
Sri Lanka that climaxed in 2009.

The big picture, that I've described many times in Central African
Republic, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America
in the 1800s, is that in country after country, there a classic and
recurring battle between herders and farmers. The farmers accuse the
herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders
accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If
the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down.

Darfur's previous generational crisis war was World War II. During
the Awakening era of the 1970s, conflicts between the farmers and
herders began to appear, but at that time they could always be
resolved by the tribal elders, who had vivid memories of the horrors
of the previous war, and were dedicating their lives to making sure
that it never happens again.

When a drought occurred in 1983-85, and there was a scramble for
arable land, the incidents of conflicts increased, resulting in brief
periods of violence.

By the 1990s, the government in Khartoum decided it needed a police
force in Darfur, and that job was assigned to the Janjaweed militias.
They were from herder tribes, but at that time they really were just
performing police functions, and were not committing war crimes. In
2003, there were a couple of regeneracy events, and the low-level
violence between dark-skinned farmer "Africans" and light-skinned
herder "Arabs" turned into a full-scale generational crisis war.

The next few years were like a comic tragedy. UN Secretary-General
Kofi Annan recalled the Rwanda genocide of ten years earlier (1994)
and vowed "Never again," calling for the United Nations and the world
to take steps to avoid a repeat in Darfur. I wrote that in the Darfur
genocide, the UN is completely irrelevant,
and that the war would not end until it had run its
course.

Another highlight of the time were a statement by Democratic senator
Joe Biden who announced that he wanted to move the American troops from Iraq to the Darfur civil war.
That was during President George Bush's "surge" into Iraq,
which turned out to be successful. If we had listened to Biden, then
American troops would have been embroiled in a disastrous war in
Darfur.

Yet one more laughable highlight was the statement by the new UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who blamed the Darfur war on the United States because of global warming.
His reasoning was that the war was caused by the weather,
and the US was responsible for the weather.

Finally in August 2007, the United Nations voted to send peacekeepers
to Darfur to stop the war.

Now I've explained generational theory many times in my articles, so
I'm going to repeat some theory now. Generally speaking, wars never
end except in one way: a generational crisis war ends with an crisis
war climax, a series of genocidal acts so horrible that they
traumatize both the perpetrators and the victims. Until that climax,
there may be peace agreements that stop the war for a year or two, but
it always resumes. When the climax occurs, the traumatized survivors
then vow that nothing so horrible can ever happen again, and it
doesn't -- until the survivors die off and a new generational crisis
war can begin.

So there was never any chance that the United Nations was going to end
the Darfur civil war, as I said repeatedly ten years ago, and it
hasn't. As I've said, we've seen peacekeeping forces fail miserably
in numerous countries, including Darfur, so it's not surprising that
UNAMID is being cut almost in half. A smaller UNAMID will permit the
government in Khartoum and the Janjaweed militias to complete their
objective of massacres, systematic rapes, systematic torture, burning
down villages, destroying crops, and so forth. Only when there's been
enough mass bloodshed and horror will the Khartoum government and the
Darfurians decide that the war has to stop.

Related Articles

• Darfur genocide: The UN is completely irrelevant (28-Jun-2004)
  
  
• Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming (19-Jun-2007)
  
  
• Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war (29-Apr-2007)
  
  
• Still tilting at windmills, the UN will send 'peacekeepers' to Darfur (03-Aug-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sudan, Darfur, United Nations, Unamid,
Janjaweed militias, Rapid Support Force, RSF,
Jebel Marra, Amnesty International, Eric Reeves,
Sudan Liberation Movement, Nikki Haley,
Kofi Annan, Joe Biden, Ban Ki-moon

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Jun-17 World View -- Djibouti, Eritrea border clash looms after Qatar withdraws peacekeepers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Djibouti, Eritrea border clash looms after Qatar withdraws peacekeepers
  
• Tiny Djibouti tries to survive, surrounded by big neighbors
  

****
**** Djibouti, Eritrea border clash looms after Qatar withdraws peacekeepers
****


Horn of Africa

The dispute between Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the Arabian Gulf has had
a ripple effect on the horn of Africa in the form of a potential
border clash between Djibouti and Eritrea.

On Friday, Djibouti accused Eritrea of invading and occupying disputed
territory along their border. Some Eritrea military officials have
confirmed that the charges are true. The invasion occurred after
Qatar withdrew hundreds of peacekeeping troops it had on the border,
following a major border war between Djibouti and Eritrea in 2008.

As we've been reporting, Saudi Arabia led a bloc of Arab countries in
imposing a land, air and sea blockade on Qatar, accusing Qatar of
funding terrorist acts through the Muslim Brotherhood, and of having
too friendly relations with Saudi Arabia's arch-enemy, Iran.

President Donald Trump's harsh condemnation of Iran during his May 22
visit to Saudi Arabia triggered a renewal of long-standing vitriolic
hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and on June 6, the
vitriolic words turned into vitriolic actions, when Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) all imposed the
land, air and sea blockade on Qatar.

In the next few days, other Arab countries, including Djibouti, joined
the blockade, while Eritrea refused to cut diplomatic ties with Qatar,
saying that it was "impossible to cut ties," because it had "strong
ties with the brother people of Qatar."

That changed last weekend. Last Sunday, Qatari officials visited to
Eritrea to firm up it support for the Qatari side. But on Monday,
Eritrea announced that it was switching sides and siding with Saudi
Arabia against Qatar, issuing a statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The decision by Gulf nations is among many in the
> right direction that envisages full realizations of peace and
> stability ... For Eritrea, this is a timely issue that warrants
> its active support."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

That was all that Qatar could take. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Qatar
pulled its peacekeeping troops from the border, and on Thursday
Eritrea began its invasion.

Ethiopia has still not taken sides between Djibouti and Eritrea, but
has called for dialog to settle the differences. The UN Security
Council will meet on Monday to discuss the situation. Al Arabiya (Riyadh) and Africa News and Reuters and Press TV (Tehran)

****
**** Tiny Djibouti tries to survive, surrounded by big neighbors
****

Djibouti is a tiny country, with less than one million population,
with high rates of illiteracy, unemployment, and childhood
malnutrition. Nonetheless, the country has huge strategic importance,
guarding the entrance to the Red Sea.

Djibouti hosts Camp Lemonnier, with more than 4,000 personnel, the
largest American permanent military base in Africa. France and Japan
launch military operations from Djibouti's Ambouli International
airport. China also has a military base in Djibouti, and is investing
heavily in the entire region with infrastructure projects.

Historically, Djibouti's population consists of two ethnic groups,
both nomadic herders. Arabian immigrants came to the country in 3
B.C. and became the Afar ethnic group, who are considered the
country's native population. Shortly thereafter, the Issa ethnic
group came from Somalia, and today they are 60% of the population. In
the 800s, Islam was introduced to the country and it became the first
country to adopt Islam in the African continent.

In 1843, French troops came to the country and made the country its
colony, later calling it French Somaliland. Following World War II,
there were two referendums on the question of independence, one in
1957 and one in 1967, and the referendum failed in both cases. The
Afars mostly voted to remain a French colony, while the dominant Issas
favored independence, and accused the French of vote-rigging. After
the 1967 referendum, France changed the name of the colony to "the
Territory of the Afars and the Issas," in order to give the minority
Afars a greater prominence. Finally, on June 27, 1997, France gave up
its last colony, and made Djibouti an independent country. In recent
years, tensions have been growing between the Afar and Issa tribes.

A border war broke out in June 2008 between Djibouti and Eritrea. In
2009, the UN Security Council approved tough sanctions against Eritrea
for supplying weapons to opponents of the Somali government and
refusing to resolve border dispute with Djibouti. A peacekeeping
mission was set up, using troops from Qatar.

With the Qatar troops leaving, the border war is resuming. The UN
Security Council will meet on Monday to decide how to proceed.
BBC (16-June-2015) and Nations Encyclopedia and Afar Diaspora Network

Related Articles

• China-built railway in Kenya raises questions about 'debt trap diplomacy' (02-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea (14-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Eritrea: The most repressive regime in the world (24-Apr-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Djibouti, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
Ethiopia, Camp Lemonnier, China, Issas, Afars, Somalia,
French Somaliland, Territory of the Afars and the Issas

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Jun-17 World View -- Hamas, ISIS argue over who gets credit for killing female Israeli officer

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Three Palestinians shot dead after killing female Israeli officer
  
• Hamas, ISIS argue over who gets credit for killing female Israeli officer
  

****
**** Three Palestinians shot dead after killing female Israeli officer
****


23-year-old Hadas Malka, Border Police officer killed on Friday evening

Israeli security forces shot dead three Palestinian teenagers who
carried out terrorist attacks on Israeli police officers in two
different areas of Jerusalem on Friday evening.

At one location, two Palestinians were shot dead after opening fire at
a group of Israeli police officers. One Israeli officer was injured.

At the second location, a Palestinian fatally stabbed Hadas Malka, a
23-year-old Border Police officer. Malka is being called a hero
because she fought back against the attacker as he was repeatedly
stabbing her. She died during emergency surgery. The attacker was
shot dead.

For several months during 2015, these knife attacks by Palestinian
teenagers on Israelis were becoming fairly common. Israeli security
officials were baffled about how to prevent the knife attacks because,
unlike suicide bomber vests, a knife can easily and openly be carried
from place to place and wielded at a moment's notice. It was feared
that the number of attacks would grow. However, by the end of the
year it appeared that that the teenage knife attacks had run their
course, despite encouragement from Hamas that they be continued.

The teenagers are in what is being called the "Oslo generation,"
because they grew up after the 1993 Oslo accords that were supposed to
bring peace to the Mideast. Instead, the Oslo accords are perceived
as having accomplished nothing, and that perception is completely
correct. The Oslo generation see the so-called "Mideast peace
process" as nothing more than a failed series of humiliations for
Palestinians.

The result is that the youngest generations of Palestinians are pretty
much disgusted with all the Palestinian leadership, in both the West
Bank and Gaza. Like the youngest generations in many countries today,
the Oslo generation are looking forward to replacing their current
incompetent leadership with new, young, energetic leadership that will
take them to war against Israel, and lead to atrocities, mass killing,
rape and torture of both Palestinians and Israelis, and a region
soaked with blood. Times of Israel and Reuters and Times of Israel

Related Articles

• Mahmoud Abbas, 81, reelected leader of Fatah/Palestinian Authority (30-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Palestinian president Abbas, 79, faces life after 'peace talks' collapse (21-Apr-2014)
  

****
**** Hamas, ISIS argue over who gets credit for killing female Israeli officer
****

In a series of bizarre twists, different terrorist groups are
competing for the honor of taking credit for killing Hadas Malka.

First off, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
took responsibility for the stabbing and shooting attacks on Friday
evening. According to a statement from its Amaq PR agency:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Let the Jews expect the demise of their entity at the
> hands of the Caliphate soldiers. [The attack is] revenge for
> God’s religion and for the violated sanctities of
> Muslims."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

ISIS, which is close to being defeated in Raqqa in Syria and in Mosul
in Iraq, is increasingly taking credit for terrorist acts it had
nothing to do with in order to try to improve the value of its brand
name in view of its approaching defeat.

Hamas, the government authority in Gaza, was quick to call say that
ISIS are liars, and that Hamas should get the credit, because all of
the teenage attackers were Hamas members. According to a Hamas
official:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The three hero martyrs who executed the Jerusalem
> operation have no connection to Daesh (ISIS), they are affiliated
> with the PFLP and Hamas."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The acronym PFLP stands for the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine, a long-in-the-tooth terrorist organization formed after the
1967 war between Israel and Egypt, currently a branch of the
Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

The PFLP posted an interesting statement on their web site:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine
> praised the heroic operation in Jerusalem on Friday evening that
> led to the killing of one armed occupation Border Police officer
> and wounding of several more armed occupation forces, saying that
> this operation comes at a critical time to defend Palestinian
> resistance.
>
> The Front saluted the martyrs whose lives were taken in the
> operation as heroes of the Palestinian people who acted to defend
> the rights of the Palestinian people with unrivaled courage,
> penetrating Zionist control over Jerusalem to direct the fire of
> their anger at the occupation’s armed forces and soldiers. The
> Front emphasized that the resistance is continued, rooted in the
> homeland and in Jerusalem, the eternal capital of Palestine.
>
> The PFLP also noted that this operation sends a strong, direct
> message to the defeated leaders of the Palestinian Authority, its
> polices and approach, that makes clear that the resistance is
> continuing and is the only path to defeat the occupier. The
> operation was carried out only meters from the al-Buraq Wall,
> confirming the Arab identity of Jerusalem. A attempt to undermine
> Palestinian and Arab rights to their holy sites and to Jerusalem
> will face strong and firm rebuke."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

What's most interesting about the PFLP statement is that it refers to
"the defeated leaders of the Palestinian Authority," referring
especially to Mahmoud Abbas.

All of these statements are pure public relations statements. The
purpose of the ISIS statement is to improve its brand name before its
defeat in Syria and Iraq. The Hamas and PFLP statements are both
targeted at the young Oslo Generation who, polls show, are completely
disgusted with all of the leaders of the traditional Palestinian
groups -- the Palestinian Authority, the PFLP, and Hamas. Each group
is hoping that they can feel the love from the generation of
Palestinian kids, but that's not going to happen.

Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, put out a statement
condemning Israel for killing three teenage Palestinians who killed
Israeli police officer Hadas Malka and injured four others. Abbas
called their deaths a "war crime." This is completely laughable, but
like many politicians' laughable statements, it's just another public
relations statement to appeal to the children in the Oslo generation
who, as polls have shown, generally hate Mahmoud Abbas.

Israel's military, the IDF, said that two of the attackers known to be
affiliated with a local cell and not working for either ISIS or
Hamas. They were imprisoned in Israel in the past for rock and
firebomb attacks. So it turns out that all these terrorist leaders
were just ordinary politicians lying to their constituents.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Times of Israel and Yeshiva World News and YNet News and AP

Related Articles

• Mahmoud Abbas, 81, reelected leader of Fatah/Palestinian Authority (30-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Hamas and ISIS turn on each other in the Gaza Strip (02-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp descends into the 'deepest circle of Hell' (10-Apr-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Hadas Malka,
Palestinians, West Bank, Gaza, Hamas, Oslo Generation,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Amaq PR agency, Raqqa, Syria, Mosul, Iraq, Mahmoud Abbas,
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, PFLP

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Jun-17 World View -- US shoots down Syrian warplane, as Iran launches missiles into Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US coalition warplane shoots down Syrian regime warplane targeting SDF
  
• Iran launches missiles at ISIS targets in Deir az-Zour in major escalation
  

****
**** US coalition warplane shoots down Syrian regime warplane targeting SDF
****


Syrian Defense Forces (SDF)

The Pentagon has confirmed that the US coalition has shot down a
Syrian regime warplane that was attacking Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) positions near Raqqa.

The SDF are a US-backed fighting force containing mostly Kurds and
with some Arabs that the US considers to be the best fighting force to
defeat the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in
Raqqa, their last major stronghold in Syria.

According to the Pentagon statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"At approximately 4:30 p.m. Syria time, June 18,
> Pro-Syrian regime forces attacked the Syrian Democratic
> Forces-held town of Ja’Din, south of Tabqa, wounding a number of
> SDF fighters and driving the SDF from the town.
>
> Coalition aircraft conducted a show of force and stopped the
> initial pro-regime advance toward the SDF-controlled
> town. Following the Pro-Syrian forces attack, the Coalition
> contacted its Russian counterparts by telephone via an established
> ‘de-confliction line’ to de-escalate the situation and stop the
> firing.
>
> At 6:43 p.m., a Syrian regime SU-22 dropped bombs near SDF
> fighters south of Tabqa and, in accordance with rules of
> engagement and in collective self-defense of Coalition partnered
> forces, was immediately shot down by a U.S. F/A-18E Super
> Hornet. ...
>
> The Coalition does not seek to fight Syrian regime, Russian, or
> pro-regime forces partnered with them, but will not hesitate to
> defend Coalition or partner forces from any threat."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

A statement by the Syrian military said that the Syrian pilot was
killed in the attack:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"“This attack comes at a time when the Syrian Arab
> army and its allies are advancing in the fight against ISIS
> terrorists who are being defeated in the Syrian desert in more
> ways than one. ...
>
> The attack stresses coordination between the US and ISIS, and it
> reveals the evil intentions of the US in administrating terrorism
> and investing it to pass the US-Zionist project in the
> region."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to a late "breaking news" report from the Syrian regime,
Syrian Arab Army forces tried to cross SDF lines in order to recover
the body of the pilot, resulting "a fierce confrontation that is
currently ongoing between the two entities near the key town of Resafa
in western Al-Raqqa."

Sunday's attack would be the second time recently that US warplanes
have struct Syrian regime military targets. On May 18, American
warplanes launched a series of airstrikes on Thursday against a
military convoy of pro-regime militias fighting in Syria. That attack
was on a pro-Syrian regime convoy headed in the direction of an
American training camp at the border town al-Tanf in Syria, near the
border with Iraq and close to the Jordan border. Washington Post and ARA News (Kurds) and Russia Today and Al Masdar News (Damascus)

Related Articles

• US and Iran headed for military confrontation in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria (09-Jun-2017)
  
  
• US and Iran-backed troops head for confrontation at al-Tanf on Iraq-Syria border (05-Jun-2017)
  
  
• US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base (19-May-2017)
  

****
**** Iran launches missiles at ISIS targets in Deir az-Zour in major escalation
****

In a major escalation of its participation in the war in Syria, Iran
has launched "a number of mid-range ground-to-ground missiles were
fired from the IRGC aerospace force’s bases in Iran’s western
provinces of Kermanshah and Kurdistan," striking ISIS targets in Deir
az-Zour.

The missile attacks were in revenge for two coordinated terror attacks
on Tehran targets on June 7. In the first attack, four gunmen, some
dressed as women, burst into Iran's parliament armed with grenades and
explosive vests. 12 people were killed after two vests had been
detonated. After a five hour standoff, the four attackers were killed
by police. A second, almost simultaneous attack, occurred when a
suicide bomber exploded his vest near the mausoleum of Grand Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, who was the founder of Iran's Islamic Republic.
One person was killed, another wounded.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) blamed the attack on
Saudi Arabia and America, and promised revenge. Sunday's missile
attack was the promised revenged.

Up until now, Iran has participated in the war mostly by funding
Hezbollah fighters, and providing military advisors. The missile
launch marks an escalation in Iran's participation, and is likely to
trigger new terror attacks by ISIS on Iran.

Iran has repeatedly said that Saudi Arabia was behind the June 7
attack. If Iran becomes convinced that it has irrefutable truth that
the Saudis were behind a terror attack in Iran, then the next missile
strike from Iran is likely to be on Saudi Arabia.

The two major events on Sunday -- the US downing of a Syrian warplane,
and the missile launch by Iran -- shows how the war in Syria continues
to spread and grow, almost on a daily basis.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Tasnim News (Tehran) and Mehr News (Tehran)

Related Articles

• Iran says Tehran terror attack was by Iranian nationals in ISIS (08-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia makes a dangerous accusation - that Iranians are 'not Muslims' (09-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Pakistan tries to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran (18-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Increasingly hostile Iran-Saudi relations affect this year's Hajj (27-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Raqqa,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syrian Arab Army, Deir az-Zour, Iran, Saudi Arabia,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Jun-17 World View -- Iran scores strategic victory in Syria with land route from Tehran to Mediterranean

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran scores strategic victory in Syria with land route from Tehran to Mediterranean
  
• Russia warns US that its jets in western Syria will be treated as targets
  

****
**** Iran scores strategic victory in Syria with land route from Tehran to Mediterranean
****


Iran's land route from Tehran to Mediterranean Sea, through Baghdad and Damascus (Guardian)

According to several reports, Iran has scored a major military victory
in the last few days by taking control of villages on the Iraq-Syrian
border in Deir az-Zour, and thus able to claim that they have control
of an entire route, or land bridge, connecting Tehran to the
Mediterranean Sea. The villages had been controlled by the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and they were recaptured
by Syrian army forces in conjunction with the military operations to
expel ISIS from Raqqa.

As we reported two weeks ago, the US and Iran were headed for a military confrontation in Deir az-Zour,

as they competed to take control of the region in eastern Syria freed
up by the expulsion of ISIS. But apparently the achievement caught
the west by surprise. The Iraqi army's Iran-trained Popular
Mobilization Units (PMUs) raced from Mosul in Iraq to the Syrian
border just as Syrian army divisions reached the same border crossing
earlier this month, according to a pre-arranged plan between Iran and
the Syrian regime. This gave Iran control of the border crossing
before coalition forces could react.

This so-called land bridge is a lengthy, meandering 1,100 land route
through Iraq and Syria, as can be seen from the map above, and there
is a lot of skepticism that Iran controls the entire route in any
certain sense. So far as is known, no attempt has yet been made to
make use of the land route. Furthermore, even if Iran does control
the entire route, any convoys would be vulnerable to US or Israeli
airstrikes.

However, if the land bridge claim turns out to be true, it would be
significant strategic victory for Iran, because it would permit Iran
to supply its allies in Lebanon and Syria with weapons and rockets.

In light of this strategy, Iran's launch of seven missiles into ISIS targets in Deir az-Zour,
that
we reported yesterday, can be seen as having the two purposes: First
to support the capture of ISIS territory needed for the land bridge,
and second to warn Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel not to interfere,
as the next missiles could be launched in their direction.

This is not the end of the story. Americans, Russians, regime
Syrians, free Syrians, Kurds, Hezbollah and Iranians have all been
united in fight against ISIS in Raqqa and Mosul. Al Monitor and Al Araby (9-June) and New Yorker and News Deeply (8-June)

Related Articles

• US and Iran headed for military confrontation in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria (09-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
  
  
• US and Iran-backed troops head for confrontation at al-Tanf on Iraq-Syria border (05-Jun-2017)
  
  
• US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base (19-May-2017)
  

****
**** Russia warns US that its jets in western Syria will be treated as targets
****

Russia is demanding a full accounting from the United States military
on why it was necessary for the US military to shoot down a Syrian
regime Su-22 bomber on Sunday. As we reported yesterday,
the US issued a lengthy statement explaining
that the Syrian warplane was targeting Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
that are supported by the US in the military operation to recapture
Raqqa from ISIS.

The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that all coalition
jets and drones flying west of the Euphrates River will be tracked as
potential targets:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Any aircraft, including planes and drones belonging
> to the international coalition operating west of the Euphrates
> River will be tracked by Russian anti-aircraft forces in the sky
> and on the ground and treated as targets."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Pentagon statement that we quoted yesterday said that "the
Coalition contacted its Russian counterparts by telephone via an
established ‘de-confliction line’ to de-escalate the situation and
stop the firing," referring to a hotline set up months ago between the
US and Russia to prevent accidental or unintended military clashes.
On Monday, Russia threatened to discontinue the de-confliction line,
although reports at the end of the day indicated that it was still
working.

There's a possibility that Russia is making threats for the benefit of
its Syrian and Iranian clients, but does not intend to follow through
on them, though this is not known if true.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Military Times and The Hill and Debka

Related Articles

• US shoots down Syrian warplane, as Iran launches missiles into Syria (19-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role (09-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Jordan on alert as ISIS captures more Iraq border towns (23-Jun-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Deir az-Zour,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Raqqa, Mosul,
Russia, De-confliction line

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Jun-17 World View -- Massive government atrocities in DR Congo's Kasai threaten regional stability

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• DRC's president Kabila refusal to step down threatens African stability
  
• Catholic Church report documents massive government atrocities in DRC's Kasai region
  
• Brief generational history of DRC's Kasai region
  

****
**** DRC's president Kabila refusal to step down threatens African stability
****


Ethnic clashes in Kasai province in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (AP)

Earlier this month, the US and the European Union imposed sanctions on
high-level officials in the government of president Joseph Kabila of
the Democratic Republic (DRC), in reaction to numerous atrocities and
war crimes committed by Kabila's government.

Besides war crimes, one of the reasons for the sanctions is that
Kabila, who has been in power since 2001, is refusing to step down,
despite the fact that his latest term in office expired in December of
last year.

Kabila pulled a mind-boggling stunt. He claims that he can't step
down because there haven't been any elections to select a president to
replace him. There were supposed to be elections in November but they
weren't held, because Kabila had done everything in his power to make
it impossible to hold elections.

In December there was a threat of civil war in DRC, but the Catholic
Church intervened and brokered an agreement: Elections would be held
in December of 2017 to choose Kabila's successor, and this time Kabila
would really step down. However, the agreement was a farce: It was
signed by members of Kabila's government, but it wasn't even signed by
Kabila himself.

It's now June 2017, and it's pretty clear that Kabila has no intention
of stepping down this. In fact, he's denying that there's any
agreement at all:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I promised nothing at all, I want to organize
> elections as quickly as possible ... We want perfect elections,
> not just elections."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Of course he's right that he promised nothing at all: He never signed
the farcical agreement brokered by the Catholic Church.

And no he's saying that it will cost $1.8 billion to hold the election
this year, but that money can't be spared (presumably because he has
to pay his army to massacre people in the opposition). So now he says
that maybe there will be elections sometime in 2018.

Presumably he'd like the West to give him $1.8 billion to hold
elections, but the norm in Africa is for leaders to take aid money and
use it to build a mansion for themselves, put it into the leader's
Swiss bank account, or, most likely in this case, use the money to
kill more people in the ethnic tribes he hates. Despite untold
billions of dollars given in aid to African countries for decades, the
African people are still in the same level of poverty as they were
decades ago, since these leaders make sure that the aid money is never
actually used for aid.

Kofi Annan, the anti-American former Secretary-General of the United
Nations issued a statement, signed by other former African national
leaders, is warning that Kabila's actions are destabilizing the
region, and possibly all of Africa:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"As African leaders committed to democracy, we are
> deeply concerned about the political situation in the Democratic
> Republic of Congo (DRC), which represents a threat to the
> stability, prosperity and peace of the Great Lakes region, and
> indeed for Africa as a whole.
>
> We feel obliged to sound the alarm before it is too late.
>
> The failure to organize elections in late 2016, in conformity with
> the constitution of the DRC, has created an acute political
> crisis.
>
> The agreement between the Government and the Opposition reached on
> New Year’s Eve under the aegis of the Conference of Bishops
> (CENCO) averted a disaster, but its implementation faces
> increasing difficulties that jeopardize the process intended to
> lead to peaceful elections this year.
>
> Both the spirit and the letter of the agreement are not being
> respected thereby endangering a non-violent political transition,
> which we believe is vital for the future stability and prosperity
> of the DRC.
>
> Elections with integrity are the only peaceful strategy possible
> for resolving the crisis of legitimacy besetting the Congo’s
> institutions."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The statement concludes that "left unresolved the crisis will have
continental implications." Human Rights Watch (1-June) and Africa News (4-June) and Newsweek (16-June) and Kofi Annan Foundation (6-June)

****
**** Catholic Church report documents massive government atrocities in DRC's Kasai region
****

Based on a new report by the Catholic Church, the Zeid Ra'ad
al-Hussein, the chief of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR), accused
authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) of mass
atrocities against people in the Luba and Lulua ethnic tribes in
Central Kasai province in DRC:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The humanitarian and human rights situation has
> deteriorated dramatically [over the last three months] and various
> actors are fueling ethnic hatred, resulting in extremely
> grave, widespread and apparently planned attacks against the
> civilian population in the Kasais. ...
>
> I am appalled by the creation and arming of a militia, the Bana
> Mura, allegedly to support the authorities in fighting the Kamwina
> Nsapu (rebels), but which has carried out horrific attacks against
> civilians from the Luba and Lulua ethnic groups. ...
>
> Refugees from multiple villages ... indicated that the Bana Mura
> have in the past two months shot dead, hacked or burned to death,
> and mutilated, hundreds of villagers, as well as destroying entire
> villages."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Unrest in the DRC capital Kinshasa turned violent on September 16 of
last year, when DRC's electoral commission failed to launch the
constitutionally-required presidential election process, making it
evident that president Joseph Kabila had no intention of holding
elections and stepping down.

By the time that Kabila's term in office ended on December 16, there
was a growing civil war that was temporarily slowed by the agreement
previously mentioned brokered by the Catholic Church that Kabila
didn't even sign.

Kabila's greatest opposition stronghold is in the Central Kasai
province, among the Luba and Lulua tribes. Tribal chieftain Kamwina
Nsapu, was killed in August of last year, resulting in the formation
of the Kamwina Nsapu anti-government insurgency. By January, 216,000
people had been displaced, and more than 400 killed, and the unrest
and violence have been spreading to other regions.

The government created and armed its own militia, the Bana Mura
militia. Apparently its actions were similar to those of the
Janjaweed militias in Darfur. Sudan's government originally created
the Janjaweed militias was to police the Darfur region, but in time
the Janjaweed militias began committing mass atrocities, including
killings, rape and torture.

So the DRC government created the Bana Mura militia to police the Luba
and Lulua tribes in Kasai province, but they're now accused of
committing mass atrocities, including killings, rape and torture.

UNHCR chief Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein is calling for a full scale
investigation of the atrocities, and is asking the United Nations
Security Council to authorize the investigation. However, DRC's
government is refusing to cooperate with any investigation, and is
forbidding any investigators from entering the region. The
investigation is also being opposed by representatives from other
African countries, who fear that such an investigation might lead to
investigations of government atrocities in their own countries.
United Nations and Crisis Group (13-Oct-2016) and TRT World (Turkey) and Crisis Group (21-Mar)

****
**** Brief generational history of DRC's Kasai region
****

The Democratic Republic of Congo is an enormously large, almost the
size of one-fourth of the United States. It's a country on multiple
generational timelines. In particular, the violence in eastern DRC is
on a different timeline, closely related to the Rwanda genocide, than
southern DRC, containing the Kasai region.

United Nation officials are concerned that the unrest in Kasai is
going to turn into a full scale civil war. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, this is a growing possibility, but not the most
likely outcome at this particular time.

After the decolonization of Belgian Congo, the Republic of Great Kasai
declared its independence on June 14, 1960. On August 8, 1960, the
autonomous Mining State of South Kasai was proclaimed with its capital
at Bakwanga (present-day Mbuji-Mayi).

The Congo became independent on June 30, 1960. During a bloody four
month military campaign in which thousands of civilians were
massacred, troops of the Congolese central government re-conquered the
Kasai region, and ended the South Kasai secession.

So South Kasai's last generational crisis war climaxed 57 years ago.
In analysis of hundreds of previous generational crisis wars, it turns
out that a new generational crisis war is most likely to start 58
years after the climax of the previous one, as that appears to be the
critical time when most of the survivors of the previous war disappear
(retire or die). South Kasai is thus on the cusp of a generational
Unraveling era, transitioning into a generational Crisis era. So from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's quite possible that
the current growing violence will spiral into full-scale civil war
this year, but it's more likely that a full scale war will wait until
next year. Africa Federation - Kasai History

Related Articles

• Congo's president Joseph Kabila refuses to step down after losing election (07-Jan-2017)
  
  
• United Nations celebrates M23 rebel militia defeat in Congo (01-Nov-2013)
  
  
• Central African Republic violence threatens new spread of Ebola from Congo (17-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, UN Human Rights Council, UNHCR,
Central Kasai province, Luba tribe, Lulua tribe,
Joseph Kabila, Kamwina Nsapu, Bana Mura,
Sudan, Darfur, Janjaweed militias,
Belgian Congo, Republic of Great Kasai,
Mining State of South Kasai, The Congo

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Jun-17 World View -- Selection of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman portends further Mideast instability

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Selection of new Saudi crown prince portends rapid changes in Mideast
  
• Mohammed bin Salman expected to follow a belligerent foreign policy
  
• Iran's ballistic missile launch on Syria said to be a flop
  

****
**** Selection of new Saudi crown prince portends rapid changes in Mideast
****


Saudi Arabia's new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

We've seen rapid changes in the Mideast, especially since the "Arab
spring" that began in 2011, bringing younger generations of Arabs into
power to replace long-time dictators, and convulsing one country after
another to the effect that it seems that the region becomes more and
more unstable every day. There's no other way to cast the the latest
change in the government of Saudi Arabia.

Previous royal successions have clearly focused on stability. Saudi
Arabia's 90-year-old King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud died in
January 2015, the Saudis followed tradition and appointed as a new
king his "young" half-brother, the 79-year-old Salman bin Abdulaziz
al-Saud.

King Salman appointed his own successor, his nephew Mohammed bin
Nayef, 57 years old, who became the "Crown Prince," meaning that he
would become king if Salman died.

Wednesday's announcement breaks tradition. Salman has dumped his
57-year-old nephew Mohammed bin Nayef, and selected a new Crown
Prince, his own 31 year old son, Mohammed bin Salman. In order to
make this choice, Salman has arranged to amend the Basic Law of
Government to say:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Rule passes to the sons of the founding King, Abd
> al-Aziz Bin Abd al-Rahman al-Faysal Al Saud, and to their
> children's children. The most upright among them is to receive
> allegiance in accordance with the principles of the Holy Quran and
> the Tradition of the Venerable Prophet."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Traditionally, the line of succession in Saudi Arabia has passed from
brother to brother. The phrase "children's children" is the change
that permits Mohammed bin Salman to be selected, replacing brother to
brother succession with father to son succession.

Mohammed bin Salman has already had a meteoric rise in Saudi politics,
as the world's youngest defense minister. According to some reports,
he has already been the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, as his
father has been ailing.

Mohammed bin Salman is generally already very popular in Saudi Arabia,
where the average age is 27, as he's promised to reform some of the
strict Sharia laws that govern social life. Under his direction,
Saudi Arabia has already set up a series of activities that are
popular in the west, including comedy shows and monster truck
competitions. He's unveiled a wide-ranging plan to bring social and
economic change to the kingdom, and he's already travelled to Beijing,
Moscow and Washington, where he met President Donald Trump in March.
Al Arabiya and CNN and BBC


****
**** Mohammed bin Salman expected to follow a belligerent foreign policy
****

Saudi Arabia has for decades had a very conservative foreign policy,
maintaining alliances with Americans, Europeans, Chinese and Russians,
and serving as leader and mediator of the Gulf Cooperation Council of
Arab states. That appears to be undergoing drastic change now.

As Saudi Minister of Defense, the young, energetic Mohammed bin Salman
already has a record that indicates a far more belligerent and
nationalistic foreign policy than the country has had in the past.
This is what would be expected for a country in a generational Crisis
era, after a succession to a younger generation.

Mohammed bin Salman is chief architect of the Saudi war against the
Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, beginning in March 2015. This war
has been a disaster for Saudi Arabia. Promises of a quick victory
have dissolved into more and more bloody warfare. The war has not
resulted in anything approaching victory, but has created a major
humanitarian crisis, with 14.1 million people having little or no
access to food.

Now that he's become Crown Prince, he's going to be under pressure to
bring the war to a successful conclusion. In a generational Crisis
era, a time of high nationalism, that is not going to be done by
compromise, even if there were some inclination to do so. It's likely
that under Mohammed bin Salman, there will be a sharp escalation in
the Yemen war.

That brings us to the subject of Iran. Mohammed bin Salman is
believed to be a leader of the air, sea and land blockade
of Qatar, with Qatar's trade and diplomatic relations with Iran
being one of the reasons given. According to Sanam Vakil analyst
from Chatham House:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Mohammed bin Salman already a few weeks back was the
> one who effectively shut the door to rapprochement between Saudi
> Arabia or the smaller GCC alliance and Iran.
>
> It seems that the crown prince has a very ambitious regional
> agenda, moving away from the longstanding Saudi policy of being
> much more quietist and working behind the scenes. This new prince
> has taken on a much more assertive regional role."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The implications are that Mohammed bin Salman has to win the
war in Yemen, and that the split with Qatar will not be resolved
for a very long time.

Mohammed bin Salman's rise also has implications for the war in Syria.
He will not be likely to continue to tolerate Iran's aggressive
actions in Syria. So far, the Saudis have avoided using ground troops
in either the Yemen or the Syria war, but the new Crown Prince may
feel obligation to counter Iran's influence by sending ground troops
into one or both of these warring countries. RFI and Middle East Eye and Newsweek

Related Articles

• Death of Saudi's King Abdullah raises concerns about policy changes (24-Jan-2015)
  
  
• In major Yemen war escalation, Qatar is deploying 1,000 ground troops (08-Sep-2015)
  
  
• UAE backs out of Saudi coalition in Yemen, saying 'War is over' (17-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Iran's ballistic missile launch on Syria said to be a flop
****

As we reported
Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that on Sunday it launched seven
medium-range ballistic missiles (Zolfaghar ballistic missiles) from
western Iran to at ISIS targets in Deir az-Zour in Syria, after
flying over Iraq.

According to Israeli sources, the missile strike was a flop.
According to Israeli media, three of the seven missiles fell to earth
in Iraq, and three of the others missed their targets by hundreds of
yards. Only one of the seven missiles reached its intended target.

According to an Israeli analyst:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the Iranians were trying to show their
> capabilities and to signal to Israel and to the Americans that
> these missiles are operational, the result was rather different.
> It was a flop, a failure. Still, it photographed
> well."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The IRGC said that all seven missiles reached their targets, and that
130 terrorists were killed. Times of Israel

Related Articles

• Iran launches missiles at ISIS targets in Deir az-Zour in major escalation (19-Jun-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, Mohammed bin Nayef,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Sanam Vakil,
Iran, Zolfaghar ballistic missiles, Iraq, Syria,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Jun-17 World View -- Financial crisis becomes critical in Illinois and Puerto Rico

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Voting for statehood will not save Puerto Rico from financial crisis
  
• Puerto Rico plunges into contentious bankruptcy proceedings
  
• Illinois bond rating expected to be cut to junk status
  

****
**** Voting for statehood will not save Puerto Rico from financial crisis
****


Governor Ricardo Rosselló and Congresswoman representing Puerto Rico Jennifer Gonzalez celebrate the results of the statehood referendum (AP)

On June 11, the citizens of Puerto Rico passed a non-binding
referendum calling for Puerto Rico to be the 51st state of the United
States. The vote was overwhelming -- 97% voted "yes" on the
referendum.

Puerto Rico's governor Ricardo Rosselló said that he will create a
commission to demand statehood from the U.S. Congress, which has to
approve any changes to the island's political status. Standing in
front of a cheering crowd of supporters carrying U.S. flags and
dancing to a tropical jingle that promoted statehood, Rosselló yelled:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The United States of America will have to obey the
> will of our people!"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Whether Rosselló actually believes that non-sequitur, or
whether he actually believes his fantasy claim that Puerto Rico's
financial crisis would now be solved by an influx of dollars from
statehood, is not known. What is known with certainty is that Puerto
Rico is not about to become a statement.

The referendum was about as phony as a Russian presidential election.
Only 23% of the electorate voted, because the vote was almost 100%
boycotted by all opposition groups, including the majority of Puerto
Ricans who consider their identity and their culture to be uniquely
theirs and do not want to be an American state for any reason. The
pro-statehood party, on the other hand, spent millions of dollars on a
campaign, telling people that if they did not vote for statehood they
would be deprived of their U.S. citizenship and promising millions in
federal money if it became the 51st state.

For Puerto Rico to achieve statehood, Congress would have to approve.
The population are overwhelmingly Democrats, so a Republican congress
will not be too interested. And statehood would mean that Puerto Rico
would get five seats in the House of Representative, which means that
five other states would lose one seat. It's just not going to happen.
ABC News (12-Jun) and The Atlantic and The Hill and CNBC (9-June)

****
**** Puerto Rico plunges into contentious bankruptcy proceedings
****

Puerto Rico owes $70 billion in bond debt and an additional $49
billion pension obligation to government employees. There's is
absolutely no possibility that those debts will ever be repaid.

Puerto Rico's bonds have been tax exempt since 1917. Many people have
invested in Puerto Rico bonds because they pay 10% interest (yields)
and because under federal law they're "triple-tax free." This means
that you could invest in Puerto Rico's bonds and earn 10% interest
every year, and not have to pay federal, state or municipal tax on the
interest you collect. There were other major tax benefits granted
exclusively to those investing in Puerto Rico.

The money that investors paid for these bonds has been essentially
"free money" to Puerto Rico, since nobody there apparently believed
that it would ever have to be paid back. As a result, Puerto Rico has
felt free to spend huge amounts of money on social programs, with
bills that are only now coming due.

The unemployment rate is 13.7%. Only 700,000 of the 3.5 million
people, or 20%, work in the private sector. The other 80% either are
on welfare, or they receive unemployment or other aid, or they work
for the government. Year after year, Puerto Rico sold more and more
bonds, and investors ate them up because of the high tax-free yields.

Through various financial tricks, Puerto Rico has managed to avoid
bankruptcy until now, but bankruptcy proceedings finally began in May
of this year.

A Puerto Rican default is likely to affect millions of Americans.
Here's an example of how mainland U.S. residents are affected: More
than 40 percent of the Rochester Maryland Municipal Bond Fund and the
Rochester Virginia Municipal Fund are invested in Puerto Rican bonds.
Funds from Oppenheimer Funds and Franklin Templeton are heavily
invested in Puerto Rico. If these funds collapse, public sector
retirees and employees from states that invested in them will suffer.

The triple-tax free 10% interest deal has drawn massive amounts of
money from 401k's and other ordinary investment funds. These funds
will all lose significant principal in a Puerto Rico default, which
means that a lot of ordinary Americans will lose part or all of their
savings. Daily Caller and NBC News (5-June) and The Nation (24-May)

Related Articles

• Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction (01-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1 (27-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Puerto Rico's governor says the island's debts are 'not payable' (29-Jun-2015)
  

****
**** Illinois bond rating expected to be cut to junk status
****

When Illinois' government missed an important deadline on June 1,
rating agencies downgraded Illinois bonds to one step above junk
status, and warned that unless the political impasse is resolved by
July 1, it's likely that they'll be downgraded again, to junk status.

Illinois' debt has been exploding. In May 2016, the state had $5.03
billion in unpaid bills. That has almost tripled in one year with
spending obligations exceeding receipts by about $600 million per
month. As of June 1 of this year, it owes a record $14.5 billion in
unpaid bills. On top of that, unfunded pension liability has been
exploding as well. The state has more than 660 government pension
funds. The unfunded pension liability for the state's five major
plans is $251 billion, up 25% in the last year.

Pundits are claiming that Illinois' situation isn't as bad as Puerto
Rico's, because Illinois is a wealthier state and can impose higher
taxes. In one sense, the two are the same: There is no hope of ever
paying off these debts.

Illinois hasn't passed a budget for the past two years. The
Democrat-controlled legislature and Republican governor Bruce Rauner
can't agree about anything. It's this political chaos that caused the
June 1 deadline to be missed, and the same chaos makes it likely that
a July 1 deadline will also be missed, which will trigger the bond
downgrade to junk status.

The downgrade to junk status will not immediately force the state into
default, but it will raise interest rates significantly, caused the
debt death spiral (or, as S&P calls it, the "negative credit spiral")
to accelerate. Anticipation of junk status is already affecting
interest rates. Chicago public schools, which used to pay 4.64%
interest on its bonds, are now paying an exorbitant 9%.

Other states are also facing serious debt spirals. According to a
2016 study by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University:

• The best five states with regard to fiscal solvency are
  Alaska, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
  
  
• The worst five states are: Kentucky, Illinois, New Jersey,
  Massachusetts, and Connecticut.

The rankings were based on cash solvency, budget solvency, long-run
solvency, service-level solvency and trust fund solvency. Investors.com and Zero Hedge and Bloomberg (1-June) and Barrons and Mercatus Center at George Mason University (2016)

Related Articles

• Illinois' budget problems are worse than California's (16-Jul-2010)
  
  
• Illinois starts paying IOUs instead of lottery winnings (25-Oct-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Puerto Rico, Ricardo Rosselló,
Rochester Maryland Municipal Bond Fund,
Rochester Virginia Municipal Fund,
Oppenheimer Funds, Franklin Templeton,
Illinois, Bruce Rauner, Mercatus Center

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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Jun-17 World View -- India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war
  
• Kashmir escalations building to all-out war
  
• Multiple terrorist attacks across Pakistan kill nearly 50
  

****
**** India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war
****


Indian army soldiers conduct a patrol during an operation against suspected rebels in Kashmir (AFP)

Tit-for-tat violence between Kashmir separatist insurgents and Indian
security forces is escalating again. It was just last month that
India launched a massive house-to-house sweep
in Kashmir, using 3,000 security forces to
root out terrorists. Insurgents have responded with new attacks,
including the beating to death of an Indian police officer.

Now, Indian security forces are signaling that their patience has run
its course, and a new "Operation All-Out" is being launched.
According to media reports in India:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The country's top security establishment has prepared
> a blueprint to deliver a lethal blow to terrorism in Jammu and
> Kashmir with a long-term plan for a lasting peace in the
> trouble-torn Valley. ... As many as 258 militants from a clutch of
> outfits have been shortlisted for Operation All-Out that has been
> launched strategically in parts of the region. ...
>
> Sources also said intelligence inputs reveal that a new
> consignment of arms arrived in the Valley from across the border.
> "These are Chinese-made arms with better precision and more lethal
> effects," the sources said, pointing out that Chinese hand
> grenades were used in an attack on a CRPF Battalion this
> week."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

These statements are significant not only because they signal
escalated fighting in Kashmir, but also because they suggest Chinese
intervention on the side of Pakistan.

According to the reports, the 258 militants who are being targeted are
mostly from three terrorist groups:

• Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist group that
  was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
  (ISI) agency to fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and
  Jammu. LeT was the perpetrator of the horrific "26/11" three-day
  attack on Mumbai in 2008, killing 166 people and wounding hundreds
  more. ( "After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis"
  from 2008)
  
  
• Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), a Pakistan-based terrorist group
  responsible for the January 2016 attack on India's Pathankot air base,
  leading to a three-day
  gunfight.
  
  
• Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM), a Kashmir-based terrorist group that has
  been leading the anti-Indian stone-throwing riots of the past year,
  triggered by the July 8 2016 death of HM leader Burhan Wani in a gunfight with the Indian army.
  Since
  then, thousands of Kashmiris have been blinded in one or both eyes by
  pellet guns used by Indian security forces, and thousands of youths
  have been arrested.

India Legal Live and AP and India Today

Related Articles

• Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep (06-May-2017)
  
  
• Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leave thousands injured (14-Jul-2016)
  
  
• India threatens retaliation on Pakistan terrorists for Pathankot air base attack (12-Jan-2016)
  

****
**** Kashmir escalations building to all-out war
****

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics and generational
theory, Kashmir is rapidly heading for all-out war, possibly by the
end of this summer.

Very long-time readers, may recall that in January, 2008, I wrote an
article titled "Sri Lanka government declares all-out war against Tamil Tiger rebels."

In that article, I wrote about the Sri Lankan civil war between the
governing ethnic majority (Buddhist) Sinhalese and the ethnic minority
(Hindu) Tamils. A separatist group, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) or "Tamil Tigers" had been fighting an insurgency since
the 1970s, although a peace agreement had been signed in 2003.

In that article, I quoted a military chief as saying that he was
"confident" of defeating the Tamil by the end of the year. He said
that the Tamils had violated the peace agreement repeatedly, so that
it was meaningless, and:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We can bring the war against the LTTE to a turning
> point once we are
able to destroy the LTTE capabilities to operate
> in bunkers and
forward defense lines."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The government had indeed run out of patience, and launched all-out
war against the Tamil separatists, even killing them with artillery
when they were hiding behind innocent civilians used as human shields.
The civil war climaxed in May 2009, following reports of genocide on
both sides, when the separatist Tamil Tigers surrendered
and renounced further violence, ending the Sri
Lanka crisis civil war.

If we apply the Sri Lanka situation to the current situation in
Kashmir, there are some similarities and differences. In both cases,
there was an ethnic/religious fault line (Buddhist Sinhalese versus
Hindu Tamils, and Muslim Kashmiris versus Hindu Indians).

In both cases, the insurgency had gone on for years, with periods of
low-level violence alternating with periods of mediated peace. In
both cases, each new round of violence was worse than the previous
one.

When the Sinhalese army "lost patience" in January 2008, it was a
turning point in the war. In terms of Generational Dynamics, this was
the point of "regeneracy," a term that's used in generational theory
to describe the regeneracy of civic unity for the first time since the
climactic end of the previous generational crisis war. The regeneracy
is characterized by increased xenophobia and nationalism on all sides,
and an attitude of "lost patience," meaning that "I'm going to end
this war, once and for all." Compromise is no longer an option. The
war continues and becomes increasingly genocidal, until there's an
explosive genocidal climax that's so horrible that it brings the war
to an end.

So in the case of Sri Lanka, the war did come to an end. Only now,
nine years later, are we beginning to see the first signs of new
decades of on again off again conflict, this time between the
Sinhalese Buddhists and the Muslim Bodu Bala Sena (BBS).

So what does this tell us about Kashmir? In Sri Lanka, there was
"lost patience," a regeneracy, another 17 months of increasingly
genocidal fighting, an explosive climax, and then the war was over.

So with "Operation All-Out," we might imagine another 17 months of
increasingly genocidal conflict between the Kashmiris and the Indian
security forces, after which there will be an explosive climax and the
war will be over.

But one can quickly see that won't happen in Kashmir. Sri Lanka is a
relatively small island, and the fighting was contained to that
island. India might have intervened, but did not intervene, so the
war ended.

Kashmir is a small region, but it's surrounded by Pakistan and India.
The war in Kashmir would not be contained. All-out war in Kashmir
would spread to all-out war between Pakistan and India, with China
supporting Pakistan and Russia supporting India. All-out war in
Kashmir would be the start of the Clash of Civilizations World War.

Related Articles

• Sri Lanka targets radical nationalist Buddhists in Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) (12-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels (04-Jan-2008)
  
  
• Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war (17-May-2009)
  

****
**** Multiple terrorist attacks across Pakistan kill nearly 50
****

There were multiple terror attacks in cities across Pakistan on
Friday, killing 47 people and injuring hundreds of others.

At least 25 people were killed in two explosions at a market in the
north-western town of Parachinar. The two explosions went off almost
simultaneously near a bus terminal. The second explosion happened as
rescuers rushed to help the injured from the first explosion. Four
more people died later when security forces confronted an angry crowd
protesting about the poor security situation.

At least 13 people died in a suicide bombing in Quetta. In Karachi,
at least four policemen were reported to have been shot and killed on
Friday evening.

The Pakistan army's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) agency said
that the terrorists who conducted the attacks had crossed the border
from "sanctuaries" in Afghanistan.

Both Pakistan and Afghanistan regularly blame sanctuaries in each
other's country for terrorist attacks in their own country. There is
actually some truth to this, as terrorists cross the border in either
direction, blow up a marketplace or whatever, and then flee from local
security forces back across the border where the security forces can't
follow. BBC
and Geo TV (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)

Related Articles

• Pakistan artillery pounds terrorist 'safe havens' in Afghanistan (21-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Multiple terror bombings cross Pakistan and Afghanistan (13-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Pak-Afghan border crisis revives controversy over 120 year old Durand Line (19-Jun-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kashmir, India, Operation All-Out, China,
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Mumbai,
Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Pathankot air base,
Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM), Burhan Wani,
Sri Lanka, Sinhalese, Buddhists, Tamils, Hindus, Tamil Tigers,
Bodu Bala Sena, BBS,
Pakistan, Quetta, Parachinar, Karachi,
Inter-Services Public Relations, ISPR

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Jun-17 World View -- Al-Jazeera may be at the center of the Gulf crisis with Qatar

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia, UAE leak 13 demands to end Qatar crisis
  
• UAE threatens 'parting of the ways' unless Qatar meets 13 demands
  
• Al-Jazeera takes center stage in the Gulf crisis
  

****
**** Saudi Arabia, UAE leak 13 demands to end Qatar crisis
****


An aerial view of Doha, Qatar, in the fog, as the sun rises

On June 5, four Arab countries -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
(UAE), Bahrain and Egypt -- imposed a land, sea and air blockade on
Qatar. Other Arab countries followed suit. Many international
politicians have said they were "mystified" by what the Arab countries
were demanding of Qatar to end the crisis. The US asked Saudi Arabia
to produce a list of demands that were "reasonable and actionable."

It's known that Saudi Arabia and UAE had heavily criticized Qatar for
its strong support of the Muslim Brotherhood, considered a terrorist
organization by America and some European nations, for its continuing
trade and diplomatic relations with Iran, with whom Saudi Arabia and
some other Arab countries have broken diplomatic relations entirely,
and for its use of al-Jazeera to propagate a message of support for
the Muslim Brotherhood, and criticism of the leaders of other Arab
states. However, the detailed demands were not known.

On Friday, a list of 13 demands appeared in the media. It's not clear
where the list came from. The Saudis claim that the list was supposed
to remain secret, so that negotiations would be effective. The Saudis
claim that Qatar leaked the list in order to sabotage the
negotiations. Other reports claim that the list came from Kuwait,
which is acting as a mediator.

Here are the demands, as leaked to AP:

1. Curb diplomatic ties with Iran and close its diplomatic
   missions there. Expel members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard from Qatar
   and cut off any joint military cooperation with Iran. Only trade and
   commerce with Iran that complies with U.S. and international sanctions
   will be permitted.
   
   
2. Sever all ties to “terrorist organizations,” specifically the
   Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic State group, al-Qaida, and Lebanon’s
   Hezbollah. Formally declare those entities as terrorist groups.
   
   
3. Shut down Al-Jazeera and its affiliate stations.
   
   
4. Shut down news outlets that Qatar funds, directly and indirectly,
   including Arabi21, Rassd, Al Araby Al-Jadeed and Middle East Eye.
   
   
5. Immediately terminate the Turkish military presence currently in
   Qatar and end any joint military cooperation with Turkey inside of
   Qatar.
   
   
6. Stop all means of funding for individuals, groups or organizations
   that have been designated as terrorists by Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
   Egypt, Bahrain, the United States and other countries.
   
   
7. Hand over “terrorist figures” and wanted individuals from Saudi
   Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain to their countries of origin.
   Freeze their assets, and provide any desired information about their
   residency, movements and finances.
   
   
8. End interference in sovereign countries’ internal affairs. Stop
   granting citizenship to wanted nationals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
   Egypt and Bahrain. Revoke Qatari citizenship for existing nationals
   where such citizenship violates those countries’ laws.
   
   
9. Stop all contacts with the political opposition in Saudi Arabia,
   the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Hand over all files detailing Qatar’s
   prior contacts with and support for those opposition groups.
   
   
10. Pay reparations and compensation for loss of life and other,
    financial losses caused by Qatar’s policies in recent years. The sum
    will be determined in coordination with Qatar.
    
    
11. Align itself with the other Gulf and Arab countries militarily,
    politically, socially and economically, as well as on economic
    matters, in line with an agreement reached with Saudi Arabia in
    2014.
    
    
12. Agree to all the demands within 10 days of it being submitted to
    Qatar, or the list becomes invalid. The document doesn’t specify what
    the countries will do if Qatar refuses to comply.
    
    
13. Consent to monthly audits for the first year after agreeing to the
    demands, then once per quarter during the second year. For the
    following 10 years, Qatar would be monitored annually for
    compliance.

Many analysts have said that these demands are not "reasonable and
actionable," and that in fact the demands are so drastic that the list
appears to have been designed to be rejected. AP and Atlantic

****
**** UAE threatens 'parting of the ways' unless Qatar meets 13 demands
****

According to reports from Qatar, the land, sea and air blockade has
little effect on the daily lives of the citizens. Although Qatar
imports 90% of its food, and formerly imported most of it from Saudi
Arabia and UAE, the grocery store shelves are fully stocked, with
supplies coming in from Iran and Turkey. According to one reporter,
the main difference is that there are more Turkish dairy products,
"which have proven to be higher quality and less expensive" than
previous products. To all appearances, the blockade has been a
failure.

UAE's foreign affairs minister Anwar Gargash spoke out on Saturday to
say that the purpose of the blockade was not to punish Qatar, but to
change its behavior:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The alternative is not escalation, the alternative is
> parting of ways, because it is very difficult for us to maintain a
> collective grouping. This is not about regime change, this about
> behavioral change.
>
> "The mediators’ ability to shuttle between the parties and try and
> reach a common ground has been compromised by this leak [the leak
> of the 13 demands]. Their success is very dependent on their
> ability to move but not in the public space."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Gargash says that unless Qatar meets the demands, it will be expelled
from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Beyond that, it's not clear
what is being threatened by "parting of ways." Doha News and The National (UAE)

Related Articles

• Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon (13-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis (06-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Gulf Arab states have major split over Egypt and Iran (06-Mar-2014)
  
  
• Arab League holds annual meeting among bitter splits (26-Mar-2014)
  

****
**** Al-Jazeera takes center stage in the Gulf crisis
****

Although all 13 of the demands in the list are serious, especially
Qatar's relationship with Iran, it's hard to escape the feeling that
the heart of the dispute is over al-Jazeera.

I've watched al-Jazeera English (AJE) for years, and there's no
question that it has an editorial point of view. I've written on
several occasions that AJE hates Israel, which is what one would
expect and is not surprising. But what is surprising is that AJE
seems to hate Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority even more
than it hates Israel. I can't recall ever hearing an editorial
criticism of Hamas, which is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood,
and I certainly can't recall AJE referring to Hamas as a terrorist
organization. So those who claim that al-Jazeera is "pro-Palestinian"
are being misleading in my opinion. What they are is pro-Hamas.

Al-Jazeera was launched in 1996, and since then its two major
affiliates, AJE and al-Jazeera Arabic (AJA) have become the most
widely heard news sources in the Mideast. It is owned and funded by
Qatar's government. It has always been encouraged to have an
editorial policy of criticizing other Arab governments, although
Qatar's government never received much criticism. Attempts by other
countries to compete, such as Saudi Arabia's al-Arabiya, have
succeeded only moderately.

On AJA, one of the most popular shows for years has been "Sharia and
Life," a call-in show hosted by a leading Muslim Brotherhood cleric
Yusuf al-Qaradawi. Viewers could call in and received advice on food,
family, clothing, politics, or anything else. Much of this advice
contradicted the policy of Saudi Arabia and other Arab states.

The biggest differences began to emerge after the July 2013 coup that
ousted Egypt's democratically elected president Mohammed Morsi and his
Muslim Brotherhood government. Al-Jazeera came down firmly on the
side of Morsi, and against the coup leader, General Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi, who later became Egypt's president. Several al-Jazeera
reporters were arrested in Egypt, and remained in jail for several
years. Gulf Times and Atlantic

Related Articles

• Rift grows between Palestinian Authority and Al-Jazeera (31-Jan-2011)
  
  
• Egypt's Kangaroo Court finds Al-Jazeera journalists guilty with no evidence (24-Jun-2014)
  
  
• Egypt inflames tensions with Qatar with al-Jazeera reporter verdicts (30-Aug-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Russia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iran, Egypt, Anwar Gargash,
al-Jazeera, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas,
Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe