Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Nov-17 World View -- Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia
  
• Lebanon enters the Sunni/Shia front line between Iran and Saudi Arabia
  

****
**** Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia
****


Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah (L) and former prime minister Saad Hariri ®

Saad Hariri, the prime minister of Lebanon, shocked the country and
the region on Saturday by announcing his resignation as prime minister
of Lebanon from a television studio in Riyadh, the capital city of
Saudi Arabia.

The main points of his announcement were:

• Hariri believed that he's in danger of being assassinated.
  The Saudis say they have evidence of an assassination attempt several
  days ago.
  
  
• He compared himself to his father, Rafiq Hariri, a much beloved
  former Lebanese prime minister and businessman, who was killed in 2005
  by a massive explosion in Beirut
  
  that was blamed on Syria and Hezbollah. He had been instrumental in
  Lebanon's recovery following the civil wars and the Syrian invasion in
  the 1990s.
  
  
• Saad Hariri on Saturday was vitriolicly critical of Iran, saying
  that it caused "sedition, devastation and ruin" across the Mideast,
  "driven by a deep hatred of the Arab nation and an overwhelming desire
  to destroy and control it."
  
  
• He said that Iran's puppet Hezbollah has taken control of Lebanon
  by "using the force of its weapons," even though those weapons are
  only supposed to be used for resistance to Israel.

Hariri's exact words are as follows:

<QUOTE>"You are the people of a great Lebanon, with its
traditions, values and bright history. You were the beacon of
science, knowledge and democracy until you became governed by
groups that did not care for your wellbeing. They were supported
by forces outside the borders, which implanted among the people
those who wished to cause strife, and formed a government inside a
government. This ended with these forces controlling branches of
government and obtaining the final say in the affairs of Lebanon
and the [lives of the] Lebanese.

I refer, frankly and unequivocally, to Iran, which plants
sedition, devastation and ruin, which is attested to by its
interference in the internal affairs of the Arab nation, in
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen – driven by a deep hatred
of the Arab nation and an overwhelming desire to destroy and
control it. Unfortunately, I found the sons who put their hand in
[Iran’s] hand, and openly declare their loyalty to them and seek
to kidnap Lebanon from its Arab and international environment,
with its values and ideals. I mean Hezbollah, which is the arm of
Iran not only in Lebanon but also in other Arab countries.

To the great Lebanese people: over the past decades, Hezbollah has
unfortunately managed to impose a fait accompli in Lebanon
using the force of its weapons, which are alleged to be solely for
the resistance [to Israel]. ...

We live in an atmosphere similar to the atmosphere that prevailed
before the assassination of martyr Rafiq Hariri, and I have sensed
that someone has been targeting me.

Based on the principles I inherited from the late martyr Rafiq
Hariri and the principles of the Great Cedar Revolution, and
because I do not want to let the Lebanese down or accept any
deviations from these principles, I declare my resignation as
Lebanese prime minister. I am convinced that the will of the
Lebanese is stronger and their resolve is stronger. They are able
to overcome these forces from inside or outside. I hope that
Lebanon will be the strongest free independent country, with no
authority over it except for its great people, governed by law and
protected by one army and one weapon."<END QUOTE>

Reuters and Daily Star (Lebanon) and Naharnet (Lebanon)

****
**** Lebanon enters the Sunni/Shia front line between Iran and Saudi Arabia
****

Rafiq Hariri was assassinated in 2005 because of his opposition to
control of Lebanon's government by Syria's leader Bashar al-Assad.
Public and international pressure forced Syria to withdraw completely
from Lebanon, but this only strengthened Hezbollah, which was and is
the puppet of Iran and Syria.

Saad Hariri clearly does not have the charisma and leadership
qualities of his father, and is still in the shadow of the explosive
death of his father 12 years ago. He shares his father's belief that
Lebanon should be run by Lebanon's people, not by Iran and Syria. So
with Hezbollah continually gaining strength in Lebanon's government,
Hariri became the most vocal opponent of Hezbollah. That could
explain why he felt that his life would be in danger if he made the
announcement in Beirut, and felt it was necessary to announce his
resignation in a foreign country - Saudi Arabia.

However, his political opponents are saying that the decision to
resign on television in Riyadh is inexplicable except as a plot by
Saudi Arabia. Iran's officials are saying that the resignation was
engineered by US president Donald Trump and Saudi king Mohammed bin
Salman. It seems unlikely that Trump was involved, but it's quite
possible that the Saudis strongly urged Hariri to step down.

Lebanon's constitution requires that the three main offices be
occupied by specific sectarian groups.

• The prime minister, formerly Saad Hariri until Saturday, must
  be a Sunni Muslim.
  
• The president, currently held by Michel Aoun, must be a Syriac
  Maronite Catholic.
  
• And the speaker of parliament, currently held by Nabhi Berri, must
  be a Shia Muslim.

Hariri became prime minister in 2016, under a deal where Michel Aoun,
a Maronite Catholic and close ally of Hezbollah, because president.
When Hariri took office, he promised quite optimistically to end
sectarian divisions.

That was never possible anyway, but the war in Syria only made
things worse. As Iran's puppet militia, Hezbollah became
Iran's major fighting force in Syria, and also took control
Lebanon's national army.

After Hariri's resignation on Saturday, it falls to the Beirut
government to find a new Sunni Muslim prime minister. If, as many
believe, Hariri resigned because of pressure from Saudi Arabia, then
the Saudis won't stop there, and will pressure other prominent Sunnis
in Lebanon not to take the job. What many people fear is that
Lebanon's government faces years of chaos, just as it did following
the explosive death of Rafiq Hariri in 2005.

However, it's worth pointing out that after 2005, many people thought
that Lebanon was close to a new civil war. During the
Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, which took place on Lebanon's soil, I
quoted Lebanon's President Émile Geamil Lahoud as saying:

<QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hezbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."<END QUOTE>

This was Lahoud expressing the fear shared by all survivors of the
last war that its horrors would be repeated. As I pointed out at the
time, Lebanon was in a generational Awakening era, with the survivors
of the last crisis civil war still alive, so there was no chance of a
new civil war.

Over ten years have passed since then, and most of those survivors are
still alive, and so there's still no chance of a new civil war (unless
the politicians force one to occur, as Bashar al-Assad has done in
Syria).

The larger picture is that Saturday's resignation puts Lebanon
squarely in between Saudi Arabia and Iran and their battles for
regional hegemony. Saudi Arabia is fighting Iran-backed Houthis in
Yemen, with no end in sight. Saudi Arabia has led this year's land,
sea and air blockade of Qatar, giving Qatar's relationship with Iran
as one of the reasons. And the Saudis are very anxious about Iran on
the cusp of a major victory in the war in Syria by establishing
control of a swath of land all along the "Shia Crescent," from Iran,
through Iraq, through Syria, and then on to Lebanon in one direction,
and the Mediterranean Sea in another direction.

In Syria, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
is losing territory rapidly, and it appears that its total defeat
is only weeks away. The defeat of ISIS will free up Lebanon
and Hezbollah to focus on its other enemies -- Saudi Arabia
and Israel.

Ever since the ironically named Arab Spring began in 2011, we've seen
chaos and war spring up in one Arab country after another -- Tunisia,
Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Now Lebanon may join
the list, as the end of ISIS and the resignation of Hariri completely
change the political landscape across the region.

We've pointed out in the past that all the various armies and militias
fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria now have nothing better to do than
start fighting each other. In defeating ISIS, the Turks, the
Iranians, the Kurds, the Shia militias, Hezbollah and the Syrian rebel
militias have all achieved a famous victory, and now they're going to
celebrate by killing each other.

As I'm writing this article on Saturday evening ET, there's late news
that the Houthis in Yemen have launched a ballistic missile that
reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800
km from the Yemen border. The fact that the Houthis now have these
medium-range ballistic missiles, probably supplied by Iran, that can
reach as far as Riyadh is a game-changed in the Yemen war, and could
lead to a further escalation in the region.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Daily Star (Lebanon) and CNN and Debka and Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• Armies and militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria increasingly turn on each other (15-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Arab League brands Lebanon's Hezbollah a terrorist organization (12-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Paralyzed Lebanon decides to export its garbage to Europe (24-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock (16-Feb-2005)
  
  
• Israel/Lebanon war forces Muslims to choose (24-Jul-2006)
  
• Lebanon agrees on a unity government with Hizbollah (17-Nov-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Saad Hariri, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Rafiq Hariri, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Israel,
Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, Michel Aoun, Nabhi Berri,
Émile Geamil Lahoud, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Turkey,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Khalid International Airport, Yemen, Houthis

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Nov-17 World View -- Saudi Arabia and Lebanon face increasing instability as crises multiply

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hezbollah's Nasrallah calls for calm in the streets of Lebanon
  
• Yemen's Houthi missile attack on Riyadh called a 'dangerous escalation'
  
• Saudi's young Crown Prince Salman forces rapid change among multiple crises
  

****
**** Hezbollah's Nasrallah calls for calm in the streets of Lebanon
****


Iran now claims to control four Arab capitals: Beirut (Top L), Sanaa (Top R), Baghdad (Bottom L), Damascus (Bottom R) (AlWeeam)

Following the shocking resignation on Saturday of Lebanon's prime minister Saad Hariri,
fears are growing
of instability and street protests. Hariri played a crucial role in
the government as a Sunni Muslim, balancing a Syriac Maronite Catholic
president and a Shia Muslim speaker of parliament, both of whom were
closely allied with Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

The fears that that at best the government will simply be unable to
make any decisions at all, as had happened in recent years, and at
worst that street protesters will riot and blame Nasrallah for the
country's severe economic problems.

Some people fear that Nasrallah will deflect attention from himself by
starting a war with Israel.

Nasrallah is calling for calm, and for avoiding street protests:

<QUOTE>"This created a state of anxiety in Lebanon and
especially with the rumors that accompanied it. We call for
avoiding a return to the previous tensions or to any street
protests. ...

All of us must remain calm within legal frameworks ... and I
don't think that there is any party to clan in Lebanon whose
interests are in Lebanon returning to chaotic conditions of the
past."<END QUOTE>

However, the Foreign Ministry of Bahrain issued a statement calling on
its citizens to leave Lebanon:

<QUOTE>"Due to the current circumstances and developments in
the Republic of Lebanon, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs requests
all citizens of the Kingdom of Bahrain, currently present in the
Republic of Lebanon, to leave immediately and with utmost care and
caution.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stresses that all citizens
should not travel to the Republic of Lebanon at all, for the sake
of their safety, in order to avoid encountering any risks as a
result of these developments."<END QUOTE>

Nasrallah said that the reasons for the resignation were not
understood in Lebanon, and that anyway they weren't Lebanese reasons.
He offered as proof the fact that Hariri traveled to Saudi Arabia to
resign. "The shape of the resignation proves that Hariri was forced
to do so and that the resignation was a Saudi decision." Arab News and
Al Manar (Lebanon, Hezbollah) and Bahrain Foreign Ministry

****
**** Yemen's Houthi missile attack on Riyadh called a 'dangerous escalation'
****

Saudi Arabia is calling a ballistic missile attack by Houthi militias
in Yemen a "dangerous escalation" of the war in Yemen, in which a
Saudi-led coalition is fighting against Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
Saudi Arabia blames Iran for the missile attack.

On Saturday, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile that reached the
King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800 km from the
Yemen border. the Houthis have been regularly launching missiles into
Saudi territory, but Saturday's missile attack is considered a
game-changer because of the distance it traveled and its accuracy.
The Saudis intercepted the ballistic missile with a surface-to-air
Patriot missile, which caused it to shatter into fragments near the
airport, before it could reach its target. There were no casualties.

The Saudi-led coalition responded to the "dangerous escalation" with a
major escalation of its own. The Saudis have shut down all of Yemen's
land, sea and air ports, and have launched airstrikes, supposedly the
largest barrage since the beginning of the war, on Houthi targets in
Yemen's capital city Sanaa.

Yemen has been engulfed in war since September 2014, when Houthi
fighters attacked the government in Sanaa and overthrew the
internationally recognized government. The war has already killed
more than 10,000 and displaced millions, with around 500,000 cholera
cases reported in the country since the worst outbreak in decades
started in April. Saudi Arabia has been accused of creating a
humanitarian disaster. Reuters and Al Jazeera


****
**** Saudi's young Crown Prince Salman forces rapid change among multiple crises
****

The 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by far the youngest
ruler that Saudi Arabia has had in decades. He is bringing about vast
changes, very quickly, but opening up the country to instability.

This weekend, there have been a series of crises in rapid succession.
First, Saad Hariri resigned as Lebanon's prime minister while
in Riyadh. Hours later, the Houthi missile attack on Riyadh occurred,
called a "dangerous escalation" by the Saudis, who responded with
their own escalation in the form of port closings and a barrage
of airstrikes.

Next, Saudi Arabia announced a major purge of political and business
élites, involving the arrest of 11 princes, four ministers, and dozens
of former ministers accused of corruption. Just as the resignation of
Hariri has raised questions about the stability of Lebanon's
government, the size of the purge has raised questions about the
stability and predictability of the Saudi government.

Saudi officials were still reeling from those three events, when there
was news that Saudi Prince Mansour bin Muqrin was killed in a
helicopter crash, when traveling near the Yemen border. There were
immediate concerns that the helicopter was shot down by a Houthi
missile, but no explanation has been given, and the Houthis themselves
haven't claimed credit, suggesting that the crash was not related to
the Yemen war. Several other Saudi officials were killed in the same
crash.

If this were the 1990s, or even the early 2000s, when the Mideast
was relatively stable, even these four events could be handled
as a matter of course. But ever since the "Arab Spring" of 2011,
the Mideast has become increasingly unstable almost continuously.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the
"axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be
pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Jordan Times and CNN and Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia (05-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia says it will 'end major combat operations' in Yemen (18-Mar-2016)
  
  
• UAE backs out of Saudi coalition in Yemen, saying 'War is over' (17-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Saudi Arabia,
Saad Hariri, Israel, Bahrain,
Khalid International Airport, Yemen, Houthis, Mohammed bin Salman,
Mansour bin Muqrin

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Nov-17 World View -- Democratic Republic of Congo issues farcical call for elections in December 2018

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Democratic Republic of Congo issues farcical call for elections in December 2018
  
• Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe sacks the VP so that his wife can succeed him
  

****
**** Democratic Republic of Congo issues farcical call for elections in December 2018
****


A family flees violence in Kasai province in Democratic Republic of Congo (UNHCR)

On Sunday, the electoral commission of the Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC) announced that a presidential election will be held on
December 23, 2018. Unfortunately it's hard to see this announcement
as anything but a joke, although the same kind of joke seems to occur
in one African country after another.

DRC president Joseph Kabila was supposed to step down on December 19
of last year, but he pulled a stunt worthy of any African leader: He
did everything possible to prevent new elections from taking place,
and then refused to step down because there hadn't been any elections.
There was a threat of civil war in DRC, but the Catholic Church
intervened and brokered an agreement: Elections would be held in
December of 2017 to choose Kabila's successor, and this time Kabila
would really step down.

It was always obvious that the agreement was a farce, and that Kabila
would ignore the agreement. That has in fact happened, because once
again Kabila did all he could to prevent new elections from taking
place, and now with December 2017 upon us, there will be no elections.

So now Kabila's election commission has announced that the election
will take place in December 2018. So are we going to see another year
where Kabila prevents a new election, and then makes some new
agreement for an election in December 2019?

The norm for the leaders of many African countries is to refuse to
step down, to misappropriate huge amounts of money from the treasury
and from foreign aid to pay money to his political cronies and thugs
to buy their loyalty, to pay money to buy weapons to be used against
the political opposition, and then to target his political enemies
with mass slaughter, mass atrocities, mass rapes and mass torture, in
order to stay in power.

That's certainly what's happening in DRC. As we reported in July,
in the 16 years he's
been in office, he and his family and cronies have taken control of
dozens of business, and more than 71,000 hectares (175,444 acres) of
farmland, own diamond mines, a part of the country's largest mobile
phone network, companies that mine mineral deposits, gold and
limestone, a luxury hotel, stakes in an airline, a share of the
country's banks, and a fast-food franchise.

If he allowed an election to take place and the opposition won, then
he would undoubtedly begin to lose control of that vast wealth, and
might be thrown in jail for corruption. So we can be pretty certain
that Kabila will not allow an election in December 2018, or ever -- or
at least not a rigged election. However, the Trump administration has
told Kabila that an election must be held by December 2018, or
international aid will be cut off.

The opposition stronghold is the central province of Kasai, where more
than 3,000 people have been killed in escalating violence blamed on a
government-sponsored militia. The UN has identified more than 80 mass
graves and said it had found toddlers with limbs chopped off and
pregnant women with their bellies sliced open, their unborn babies
mutilated.

The violence has resulted in 3.9 million people forced to flee their
homes to escape the violence. Hundreds of thousands have fled to
Zambia, Angola and other neighboring countries as refugees, creating a
humanitarian disaster in those countries, and threatening to
destabilize the entire region. Deutsche Welle and
The Citizen (South Africa) and UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR)

Related Articles

• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila brings the art of power and corruption to new heights (24-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Massive government atrocities in DR Congo's Kasai threaten regional stability (21-Jun-2017)
  

****
**** Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe sacks the VP so that his wife can succeed him
****


Robert and Grace Mugabe (AFP)

What Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe is doing is just a variation
of what Joseph Kabila is doing in DRC, but the intended outcome is
roughly the same.

Mugabe is 93 years old, and has used violence, rape and torture to
stay in power for 37 years, but even he knows that he can't be
president forever. Mugabe's wife, 52 year old Grace Ntombizodwa
Mugabe, said earlier this year that Mugabe would continue governing
from the grave:

<QUOTE>"One day when God decides that Mugabe dies, we will
have his corpse appear as a candidate on the ballot paper,

You will see people voting for Mugabe as a corpse. I am seriously
telling you — just to show people how people love their
president."<END QUOTE>

However, Grace now has another solution -- she will replace Mugabe as
president.

Grace Mugabe and the vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa have been
feuding, and recently he accused her of poisoning him. On Saturday,
Grace Mugabe called Mnangagwa the “root cause of factionalism," and
she accused the vice-president’s supporters of booing her while she
gave a speech. She said, "What if I get in [as vice-president]?
What’s wrong with that? Am I not in the party? If people know that I
work hard and they want to work with me, what is wrong with that?"

So on Sunday, Mugabe fired vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa, clearing
the way for his wife Grace to become vice president, and then succeed
him as president.

Mugabe is from the Shona tribe, and in the early 1980s, he launched a
massive genocide and ethnic cleansing campaign against his traditional
tribal enemies, the Ndebele tribe. During that campaign, known as
Operation Gukurahundi, accomplished with the help of training by North
Koreans, tens of thousands of people, mostly from the Ndebele tribe,
were raped, tortured and slaughtered.

In 1999, Mugabe adopted his "indigenization" program. At that time,
Zimbabwe was considered the breadbasket of Africa, second only to
Kenya in food production. Mugabe threw all the white farm owners out
of the country, and turned the farms over to his incompetent cronies
and thugs in the Shona tribe. By 2003, Zimbabwe was starving, and the
number of Zimbabweans dying of starvation continued to grow. By 2008,
the official rate of inflation was 231 million percent. ( "24-Feb-2014 World View -- Mass murderer Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has 90th birthday"
)

So Kabila and Mugabe are cut from the same cloth -- destroying the
economy with massive corruption and using massive slaughter, rape and
torture to stay in power. But whereas Kabila used the trick of
preventing elections in order to stay in power, Mugabe is using the
trick of getting his wife to replace him, and effectively rule the
country from his grave. Once again, it's hard to see this as anything
but a joke.

Unfortunately, we've seen the same sort of thing in one form or
another in other African countries, including South Sudan, Burundi,
Uganda, Rwanda, Cameroon, and Eritrea, as well as in non-African
countries, including Syria and Thailand. The methods vary, and the
levels of violence vary, but the outcomes are always the same -- to
keep the élites in power by any means possible. Reuters and Guardian (London) and The Herald (Zimbabwe) and AFP (18-Feb-2017)

Related Articles

• Zimbabwe bans food imports as new 'bond note' currency crashes (21-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program (20-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Mass murderer Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has 90th birthday (24-Feb-2014)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's 'Liberation Hero' president Robert Mugabe continues to destroy his country (04-May-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Joseph Kabila, Kasai, Zambia, Angola,
Robert Mugabe, Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe,
Operation Gukurahundi, Shona, Ndebele, Emmerson Mnangagwa

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Nov-17 World View -- US expands military counter terrorism efforts in Africa after death of soldiers in Niger

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US expands military counter terrorism efforts in Africa after death of soldiers in Niger
  
• US and Niger dispute the facts about the four soldiers' deaths
  

****
**** US expands military counter terrorism efforts in Africa after death of soldiers in Niger
****


Three Tuareg women in the city of Agadez, Niger, where the new US military drone base will be built (Pinterest)

Following the deaths on October 4 of four American soldiers in Niger
on the border with Mali, the U.S. is planning an expansion of the
American military presence in Africa's Sahel region (the strip of
Africa just below the Sahara desert, separating the Arab north from
Black Africa to the south), as part of its counter-terrorism strategy
in Africa.

The planned military expansions had been discussed earlier, but the
events of October 4 gave them increased visibility and impetus.

The Trump administration said last week that it would contribute an
initial $60 million to the newly constituted "G5 Sahel"
counter-terrorism force, led by France and containing 5,000 troops
from five Sahel nations -- Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and
Mauritania. However, the administration is demanding that other
countries also contribute money to the effort, which is considerably
short of its budget of about half a billion dollars.

The second development is that the US has convinced the government of
Niger to permit the US to operate armed drones over Niger airspace.
Niger had refused permission in the past, but acquiesced after it was
argued that an armed drone could have saved the lives of the American
soldiers on October 4.

The US had already committed $100 million as the initial construction
costs, including fuel and equipment, of an American drone base in
Agadez, in central Niger. According to an American military spokesman
in September:

<QUOTE>"At the request of, and in close coordination with,
the Government of Niger, United States Africa Command is
establishing a temporary, expeditionary cooperative security
location in Agadez, Niger.

Agadez is an ideal, central location to enable ISR collection
(intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) to face the
security threat across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin
region."<END QUOTE>

Niger's government had approved the drone base only for intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance, using unarmed drones. But last
week's announcement permits the use of armed drones, allowing the
drones to protect American forces in operations such as those on
October 4.

The United States already has 800 troops in Niger, in a base near the
capital city Niamey in western Niger. Eventually, these forces will
be relocated to the new base in Agadez. Washington Post and Reuters and Reuters (30-Sep)

****
**** US and Niger dispute the facts about the four soldiers' deaths
****

As more details come out about the deaths of the four US soldiers and
five Nigerien soldiers on October 4, it appears that they were the
targets of a very well-planned ambush, apparently motivated by a
desire for revenge.

Note: "Nigerien" refers to Niger, while "Nigerian" refers to Nigeria.

A team of 12 American and 30 Nigerien troops were on a supposedly
low-risk reconnaissance mission, where chances of contact with
militants were considered unlikely. They were leaving the border
village of Tongo Tongo, when the village chief asked their help in
getting medicine to treat sick children. There was a 40 minute delay,
time that was used by the militants to set up the ambush.

About 100 yards outside the village, they heard gunshots, and the
militants sent a herd of cattle toward them, generating large clouds
of dust, allowing the militants to see them, while they were blinded
by the dust. There were about 50 militants, using heavy machine guns,
rocket-propelled grenades and Kalashnikov rifles.

However, there is a dispute between the American and Nigerien
militaries about the nature of the mission. The American military
insists that it was purely a reconnaissance mission of a type that had
been performed many times before without incident.

But Niger’s Defense Minister Kalla Moutari described the operation as
"a reconnaissance mission, but also to neutralize the enemy."
Specifically, the mission aimed to detain and question Doundou Chefou,
an actively sought jihadist considered to be particularly dangerous.

According to a senior US intelligence official, "They were up there so
long on a mission that morphed, they were spotted, surveilled and
ultimately hit." Washington Post and France 24

Related Articles

• New Somalia terror bombings again raise question of US military strategy in Africa (29-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) blamed for deaths of US troops in Niger (08-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Jihadist attacks in Mali surge with rise of al-Qaeda linked JNIM (04-Oct-2017)
  
  
• France's new president Macron commits troops to Mali 'as long as necessary' (20-May-2017)
  
  
• Did France kick a hornet's nest with military intervention in Mali? (18-Jan-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Agadez, Niger, France,
G5 Sahel, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania.
Tongo Tongo, Kalla Moutari, Doundou Chefou

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Nov-17 World View -- Donald Trump in Seoul issues stern warning to North Korea -- and to China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Donald Trump in Seoul issues stern warning to North Korea -- and to China
  
• Trump's speech targeted at China
  

****
**** Donald Trump in Seoul issues stern warning to North Korea -- and to China
****


Donald and Melania Trump in South Korea on Wednesday (Reuters)

President Donald Trump, speaking to South Korea’s National Assembly on
Wednesday, issued a stern warning to North Korea's president
Kim Jong-un that his continued development of nuclear weapons
and ballistic missiles did not protect his regime, but instead
the regime into extreme peril:

<QUOTE>"All the while, the regime has pursued nuclear weapons
with the deluded hope that it could blackmail its way to the
ultimate objective. And that objective we are not going to let it
have. We are not going to let it have. All of Korea is under that
spell, divided in half. South Korea will never allow what's going
on in North Korea to continue to happen. ...

To this day, it continues to launch missiles over the sovereign
territory of Japan and all other neighbors, test nuclear devices,
and develop ICBMs to threaten the United States itself. The regime
has interpreted America’s past restraint as weakness. This would
be a fatal miscalculation. This is a very different administration
than the United States has had in the past. ...

Today, I hope I speak not only for our countries, but for all
civilized nations, when I say to the North: Do not underestimate
us, and do not try us. We will defend our common security, our
shared prosperity, and our sacred liberty. ...

America’s men and women in uniform have given their lives in the
fight against Nazism, imperialism, Communism and terrorism.

America does not seek conflict or confrontation, but we will never
run from it. History is filled with discarded regimes that have
foolishly tested America’s resolve.

Anyone who doubts the strength or determination of the United
States should look to our past, and you will doubt it no
longer. We will not permit America or our allies to be blackmailed
or attacked. We will not allow American cities to be threatened
with destruction. We will not be intimidated. And we will not let
the worst atrocities in history be repeated here, on this ground,
we fought and died so hard to secure."<END QUOTE>

In addition, did everything possible to make his warning as
personally insulting as possible to Kim himself:

<QUOTE>"North Korea is a country ruled as a cult. At the
center of this military cult is a deranged belief in the leader’s
destiny to rule as parent-protector over a conquered Korean
Peninsula and an enslaved Korean people. ...

I also have come here to this peninsula to deliver a message
directly to the leader of the North Korean dictatorship: The
weapons you are acquiring are not making you safer. They are
putting your regime in grave danger. Every step you take down this
dark path increases the peril you face."<END QUOTE>

Mainstream media reaction to the speech as usual was incoherent, with
comments festooned with the usual snarky remarks about Trump himself.
Nobody writing about the speech seemed to understand what Trump's
strategic purpose was, and many articles concluded that it was a
wasted speech because it won't stop North Korea from continuing its
development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles -- which it
certainly won't. White House and Washington Post and CNN and The Atlantic

****
**** Trump's speech targeted at China
****

There's a paragraph quoted above that's worth repeating:

<QUOTE>"America’s men and women in uniform have given their
lives in the fight against Nazism, imperialism, Communism and
terrorism.

America does not seek conflict or confrontation, but we will never
run from it. History is filled with discarded regimes that have
foolishly tested America’s resolve."<END QUOTE>

Everybody knows that it North Korea attacks the U.S., then the regime
will be destroyed. So Trump was making this statement not for North
Korea's benefit, but for China's benefit. Trump is reminding China
that Japan made a disastrous mistake attacking the United States in
1941, and that the US defeated Japan and also saved China.

The reason that most reporters are completely confused about Trump's
strategy is because they don't understand Generational Dynamics. As
regular readers know, I've worked with Trump's former chief strategist
Steve Bannon off and on for almost ten years, and Bannon is an expert
on world and military history, and he's also an expert on Generational
Dynamics. Some news reports say that Bannon still talks regularly
with Trump, so it's not surprising that Trump's foreign policy this
year has almost completely consistent with the Generational Dynamics
analysis. If you want to understand Trump's strategy, then you have
to understand Generational Dynamics.

Trump and Bannon are well aware of the following:

• Nothing in Trump's speech will stop North Korea's nuclear
  missile development from continuing.
  
  
• China LOVES the North Korean nuclear missile development because
  the missiles are pointed at the US, and not at China.
  
  
• China won't do anything to stop the nuclear missile development
  unless they believe that it threatens their own security.

China has previously said that if the US preemptively attacks
North Korea, then China will defend it, but won't defend it if
North Korea attacks first.

Testing nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles and flying them over Japan,
is already an act of war, and exploding one over the Pacific, as has
been threatened, could threaten any aircraft or sea vessels in the
area, and the radiation could be carried by the winds to any country
bordering the Pacific. Any of these tests could be interpreted as a
nuclear attack by North Korea requiring a military response, and if
China keeps its promise, won't retaliate. However, this situation
would certainly threaten the security of China.

Chinese media have been discussing China's "Plan 2025" to overtake the
United States and have worldwide hegemony by 2025. In a recent
interview, Steve Bannon described China as "an enemy of incalculable
power, not a strategic partner and we have to understand that." He
summarized Plan 2025 as having several objectives:

• Dominate ten separate industries, including robotics,
  artificial intelligence, and chip manufacturing.
  
  
• Using its One Belt, One Road initiative to co exert
  economic control over all of Asia, stretching into Europe.
  
  
• "They’re really working out to become the world’s reserve currency
  and also have financial technology that the United States cannot
  de-couple them from the world’s capital markets, which is our one
  point of leverage."
  
  
• Become the leading mobile technology provider by dominating the
  technology and markets for "5G" wireless internet connections. This
  will be a major speed boost to wireless technology allowing, for
  example, an entire HD movie to be downloaded in a few
  seconds.

Trump's speech was a warning to China that its plan for world hegemony
is going to be a lot more difficult than they expect. Trump may even
hope to persuade China to choose a different path, but that can't
happen. Generational Dynamics predicts that the world is headed for a
Clash of Civilizations World War III, pitting the US, India, Russia,
Iran and the West versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries. Breitbart and South China Morning Post

Related Articles

• Chinese geologists warn of looming nuclear disaster from North Korean tests (01-Nov-2017)
  
  
• North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? (18-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Japan will shoot down N. Korean missiles via 'collective self-defense' (13-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Steve Bannon and Henry Kissinger form project to sound alarm on China (30-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations (07-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Seoul, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Steve Bannon, China, Plan 2025

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Nov-17 World View -- Saudi Arabia blockades Yemen, threatening millions to die in famine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• All Saudis ordered to leave Lebanon, as Hariri's fate is unknown
  
• Saudi Arabia blockades Yemen, threatening millions to die in famine
  

****
**** All Saudis ordered to leave Lebanon, as Hariri's fate is unknown
****


A poster depicting Saad al-Hariri, hanging in a neighborhood of his supporters in Beirut. The words say 'With you forever.' (Reuters)

While there aren't concerns that Saudi warplanes will be
flying over Lebanon tomorrow, the people of Lebanon are becoming
increasingly anxious over what Saudi Arabia is planning,
in view of the actions already taken.

On Thursday, Saudi Arabia ordered all Saudis in Lebanon to leave
immediately. Kuwait and United Arab Emirates (UAE) followed suit
immediately. Bahrain had made a similar statement earlier.

This followed last week's completely unexpected resignation of
Lebanon's prime minister, Saad al-Hariri, a resignation made all the
more shocking by the fact that al-Hariri flew to Saudi Arabia and
issued the resignation announcement over television from the Saudi
capital city Riyadh.

In his resignation speech, al-Hariri denounced Iran and Iran's puppet
organization Hezbollah for sowing strife in countries around the
region. He also said that he feared that they were planning to
assassinate him, as they had assassinated his father with a bomb in
2005.

It's widely suspected among the people of Lebanon that al-Hariri is
being held in Saudi Arabia against his will. In Lebanon's capital
city Beirut, politicians of all parties, including al-Hariri's own
party, are demanding that Saudi Arabia release him and allow him to
return to Lebanon and explain why he resigned. Government officials
are saying that they will not accept al-Hariri's resignation until he
returns and reaffirms it.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir on Thursday explained
in an interview what was going on from the Saudi point of view. He
blamed the situation on Iran and Hezbollah, and on Hezbollah's
increasing control of the government of Lebanon:

<QUOTE>"Hezbollah put roadblocks in front of every initiative
that Prime Minister Hariri tried to implement. Hezbollah has
pretty much hijacked the Lebanese system. It has been the
instrument that Iran used to dominate Lebanon, the instrument that
Iran used to interfere with Syria, with Hamas, and with the
Houthis. We see Hezbollah’s mischief all over the region.
Hezbollah has been responsible for smuggling weapons into Bahrain.
Hezbollah is involved in criminal activity, such as drug dealing
and money laundering.

We are saying that the world has to make sure that we designate
Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. There can be no difference
between a political wing and a militant wing. The world needs to
take action in terms of curtailing Hezbollah's activities, and the
world needs to push back against Hezbollah wherever they
operate. We cannot allow Lebanon to be a platform from which harm
comes to Saudi Arabia.

The Lebanese people have been dominated by Hezbollah and we need
to find a way to help the Lebanese people come out from under the
thumb of Hezbollah. We cannot allow Lebanon to be a base from
which attacks against Saudi Arabia can take place and we are
urging the Lebanese government in particular to take firm and
resolute action against Hezbollah."<END QUOTE>

Lebanese government officials, speaking anonymously, reject
Al-Jubeir's claim:

<QUOTE>"Keeping Hariri with restricted freedom in Riyadh is
an attack on Lebanese sovereignty. Our dignity is his dignity. We
will work with (foreign) states to return him to
Beirut."<END QUOTE>

Lebanon will ask foreign governments to pressure Saudi Arabia to
release al-Hariri.

What the people of Lebanon fear most is that their country will now
join Syria as the site of a proxy war between Shias, led by Iran,
versus Sunnis, led by Saudi Arabia. Arab News and
Newsweek and Reuters

****
**** Saudi Arabia blockades Yemen, threatening millions to die in famine
****

Saudi Arabia imposed land, sea and air blockades on Yemen, preventing
aid organizations from delivering food and medicines.

Yemen has been engulfed in a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and
Iran-backed Houthi rebels since 2014. The war has already killed more
than 10,000 and displaced millions, with around 500,000 cholera cases
reported in the country since the worst outbreak in decades started in
April. Saudi Arabia has been bogged down in the war, making little
progress, and has already been accused of creating a humanitarian
disaster.

On Saturday last week, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile that
reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800
km from the Yemen border. The Saudis were able to intercept it with
with a surface-to-air Patriot missile, but called it a 'dangerous escalation' in the war.
The missile
attack has been considered a game-changer in the war because it was
clearly an Iranian ballistic missile, and because of the distance it
traveled and its accuracy.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia responded by blockading all air, land
and sea routes into and out of Yemen, in order to prevent
Iran from sending weapons into Iran.

Yemen, which already was facing mass starvation and cholera cases,
imports 90% of all its food, and 100% of all its medicines.
Humanitarian organizations that have been supplying food and medicines
are now blocked from deliveries into Yemen.

On Wednesday, UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock said that the
blockade would cause the worst famine since World War II:

<QUOTE>"It will not be like the famine that we saw in South
Sudan earlier in the year, where tens of thousands of people were
affected. It will not be like the famine which cost 250,000 people
their lives in Somalia in 2011. It will be the largest famine the
world has seen for many decades, with millions of
victims."<END QUOTE>

Saudi Arabia's young crown prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud has been
taking one extreme measure after another. He engineered the air, sea
and land blockade of Qatar in July, he engineered the isolation of
Lebanon, in the last week he arranged for hundreds of high-level
government and financial officials to be arrested, and possibly have
their assets confiscated, and he's engineered the air, sea and land
blockade of Yemen, putting millions of people at risk of starvation.

Saudi Arabia is in a generation Crisis era and apparently in a state
of complete desperation in fighting Iran, and we can really see that
its actions to the most extreme levels of atrocities. We've already
seen this in Syria, where the country's sociopathic Shia/Alawite
president Bashar al-Assad has used Sarin gas on innocent Sunni
civilians, and with the help of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, has
committed genocide against innocent Sunni women and children in Syria.

And now it seems likely that Lebanon, which has always been a fragile
country anyway, will be pulled into the same Sunni-Shia proxy battles
as the other countries. In this generational Crisis era, the Mideast
civilization seems to be collapsing, plummeting into the same pit of
atrocities, slaughter and famine that has plagued it for centuries,
possibly for millennia.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the
"axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be
pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. BBC and
CNN and Washington Post

Related Articles

• Saudi Arabia and Lebanon face increasing instability as crises multiply (06-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia (05-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Lebanon agrees on a unity government with Hezbollah (17-Nov-2009)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia says it will 'end major combat operations' in Yemen (18-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Saad al-Hariri,
Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Bahrain,
Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Hamas,
Adel Al-Jubeir, Yemen, Houthis, King Khalid International Airport,
Mark Lowcock, Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Nov-17 World View -- European Union Brexit negotiator gives Britain a two-week ultimatum

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European Union Brexit negotiator gives Britain a two-week ultimatum
  
• The most intractable Brexit problem: Northern Ireland
  
• Can the Brexit decision be reversed? The author of the rule says it can.
  

****
**** European Union Brexit negotiator gives Britain a two-week ultimatum
****


UK Brexit negotiator David Davis and EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier (AP)

It was always pretty obvious to anyone who was awake that the surprise
passage of the Brexit referendum on June 23 of last year was a
disaster in the making, and now, 17 months later, nobody has a clue
how it's supposed to work, any more than anyone did when the
referendum first passed.

There are four major issues (or groups of issues) that have to
be resolved, and almost no progress has been made on reaching
an agreement on any of them.

First, there's the trade issue, since businesses in both the UK and
the EU can make plans for conducting business in the future. Will
there be trade tariffs? Will there be product quotas? How many new
layers of bureaucracy will have to be created for a business in the UK
to sell something in the EU, or vice-versa? Britain's prime minister
Theresa May wants to start the trade negotiations right away.
But the EU is refusing to even begin talking about trade, until
the other three issues have been resolved.

So then May hoped that trade negotiations would begin by October, but
they had to be postponed. So now May is hoping to begin trade
negotiations at a UK-EU summit scheduled for December 14-15 in
Brussels, but that depends on the other three.

So zero progress has been made on the first issue, the trade issue, in
the last 17 months, and no date to start negotiations has been agreed.

Second, there's the so-called "divorce bill." This is the amount of
money that the UK must pay to the EU to honor their existing
commitments. This includes such things as pension payments to British
nationals working for EU employers, and spending commitments for EU
projects and social programs that Britain committed to and was
contributing to before the Brexit referendum passed.

A lot of money is involved here. At first, the UK refused to pay
anything. In recent months, Theresa May has said that she would
"honor its financial obligations," but she has not committed to any
figure. Leaks from the UK side began to mention figures around
&euro;20 billion. However, many EU officials are demanding
&euro;60-70 billion.

On Friday, Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, issued an
ultimatum: The UK must "clarify" what it means by saying that it will
"honor its financial commitments," and must do so within two weeks,
or there will be no trade negotiations in December. Barnier is not
demanding that the UK name a specific euro amount, but it must specify
the algorithm by which a specific euro amount will be computed.

Barnier says that the amount of the divorce bill must be "clarified"
within two weeks, because the EU-27 (the 27 non-UK members of the EU)
will need time to agree to the amount, before trade negotiations can
procedures.

It seems pretty clear that if May specifies either a euro amount or an
algorithm, then some member states will say it's not enough. So if
trade negotiations are to begin at the December 14 summit, then some
way must be found to compromise on this issue, but in this
generational Crisis era, the mood is for confrontation, not
compromise.

So zero progress has been made on the second issue, the divorce bill,
in the last 17 months, to the current date.

The third issue is citizens' rights -- what happens to EU nationals
working in Britain, and to British nationals working in the EU?
Issues like medical benefits, pensions, and freedom of travel will
have to be resolved. The EU negotiator Michel Barnier has said that
the UK has offered some "useful clarifications," and some progress has
been made.

However, there is one citizens' rights issue that is far from being
settled: the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in Brussels
in enforcing the rights of EU citizens living and working in the UK.
Barnier is saying that the ECJ is essential in guaranteeing consistent
application of case law in the UK and in the EU. But the people in
the UK who favored Brexit in the first place HATE the ECJ and the
European Parliament, and demand that Britain have control of its own
laws. So the ECJ remains a major issue.

So SOME progress has been made on the third issue, citizens' rights,
in the last 17 months, but with respect to the biggest part of it, the
role of the ECJ, zero progress has been made. Sky News and Reuters and Guardian (London)

****
**** The most intractable Brexit problem: Northern Ireland
****

The fourth issue is the border between Northern Ireland, which is part
of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland (Ireland), which is part of the
EU but not of the UK.

In times past, there was a "hard border" between Northern Ireland and
the Republic of Ireland. Those were the times of "The Troubles," and
violent clashes between the indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (the
Catholics) and the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders
(the Protestants). These clashes were resolved by the Good Friday
Agreement (the Belfast Agreement) that resolved many issues, and
particularly eliminated the hard border, turning it into an "invisible
border" that anyone can cross at any time. That makes a lot of sense
today, when both Ireland and Northern Ireland are both part of the EU,
and hence of the single market shared by the EU and the UK.

Everyone seems to agree that a way must be found to avoid reinstating
the hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. But the problem
is that if there is no hard border, then any tariffs and customs
duties between the EU and UK can be avoided simply by shipping
products across the invisible border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland.

If there's going to be no hard border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland, then there has to be a hard border within the UK itself,
between Northern Ireland and England.

So the EU is demanding, in effect, that there has to be a hard border
between Northern Ireland and the island of England, Wales and
Scotland. This proposal is infuriating many officials in Northern
Ireland, and is rejected by David Davis, the UK's Brexit negotiator.
Nobody has any idea how this will be resolved.

So zero progress has been made on the fourth issue, the border between
Ireland and Northern Ireland. Irish Times and BBC

Related Articles

• Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
  
  
• England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland (12-May-2016)
  
  
• Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Can the Brexit decision be reversed? The author of the rule says it can.
****

It's been 17 months since the Brexit referendum, and so we are now
halfway to March 29, 2019, when Britain will leave the EU, according
to the rules specified in Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which
Theresa May invoked on March 29 of this year. And almost nothing has
been resolved on any of the major issues.

Perhaps the logjam can be broken by the time of the Brussels summit on
December 14-15. This would surprise everyone.

It's more likely that none of the major issues will be resolved
until total panic sets in late in 2018.

It's possible that no agreement on the issues will be met,
and the "no deal" option will occur in March 2019. In that
case, the UK and the EU like any two stranger nations, and will
follow the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules for trade that
every nation follows. In this case, at the very least, there
will be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

As more and more people realize that this entire Brexit process
is insane, a third option is suddenly being discussed: The
possibility of canceling the entire Brexit project and remaining
in the EU.

John Kerr, one of the authors of Article 50, was British ambassador to
the EU from 1990-95. He is accusing Theresa May of misleading the
British people by telling them that the Brexit decision is
irrevocable, and that it can be revoked if Britain decides to
unilaterally scrap divorce talks.

In a speech on Friday, Kerr said:

<QUOTE>"While the divorce talks proceed, the parties are
still married. Reconciliation is still possible

We still have all the rights of a member-state, including the
right to change our minds. The British people have the right to
know this – they should not be misled.

A political decision has been made, in this country, to maintain
that there can be no going back. Actually, the country still has a
free choice about whether to proceed."<END QUOTE>

In an interview, Kerr added:

<QUOTE>"The Brexiters create the impression that is because
of the way article 50 is written that having sent in a letter on
29 March 2017 we must leave automatically on 29 March 2019 at the
latest. That is not true. It is misleading to suggest that a
decision that we are taking autonomously in this country about the
timing of our departure, we are required to take by a provision of
EU treaty law."<END QUOTE>

According to an analyst I heard on RFI, if the UK tries to use this as
a bargaining ploy the it will be rejected by the EU-27. But if the UK
sincerely wants to remain in the EU, then it will be approved.
Reuters and Guardian (London) and Bloomberg

Related Articles

• Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals (30-Aug-2017)
  
  
• European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations (30-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball (31-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brexit, David Davis, Michel Barnier,
Theresa May, European Court of Justice, ECJ,
Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Irish Gaelics

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Nov-17 World View -- Deadly violence increases in English-speaking regions of Cameroon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Deadly violence increases in English-speaking regions of Cameroon
  
• Cameroon's 84-year-old president Paul Biya exhibits same violence as other African leaders
  

****
**** Deadly violence increases in English-speaking regions of Cameroon
****


The Median newspaper depicts anti-government protests while Cameroon president Paul Biya is addressing the UN General Assembly on 25-Sep (Cameroon-Concord)

Violence in the Southern Cameroons, the Anglophone (English-speaking)
region of mostly Francophone (French-speaking) country, has been
taking an increasingly violent turn in recent days, as pro-separatist
activists start to retaliate for the government violence that began in
November of last year.

In the past few days, Anglophone activists have ambushed and killed
four Francophone security personnel, in retaliation for government
violence that killed dozens people since October.

Peaceful protests began late last year when Anglophone lawyers
protested that the legal and court systems are biased toward
Francophones, with many laws passed without even being translated into
English. They joined by teachers protesting that all courses in the
schools had to be taught in French, and that any use of English was
forbidden. The Francophone police responded by severely beating
several protesters, and shooting two of them dead.

During the past year, the Francophone government has used increasingly
harsh methods to end the peaceful protests. This included shutting
down the internet in the Southern Cameroons for several months,
causing businesses to close and making it impossible for individuals
to bank or make purchases online, in the hope that shutting down the
internet would convince the separatists that Cameroon is too nice a
place to separate from.

On September 22, the violence took a dangerous turn, with small
explosions targeting local security forces. Starting on October 1,
when the Liberation Movement of Southern Cameroons issued a symbolic
declaration of independence for the state of "Ambazonia," an
increasingly violent Francophone government crackdown began. Hundreds
of people were arrested, and helicopter gunships were used to fire on
innocent civilians and kill them. At least 5,000 people have fled
across the border to neighboring Nigeria to escape the violence.
Reuters and Cameroon Concord and Guardian (Nigeria) and Today (Nigeria)

Related Articles

• Cameroon police shoot and kill English-speaking protesters on Sunday (02-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Cameroon's army to force English-speaking children to attend school (31-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Cameroon: One person killed in English-speaking vs French-speaking civil unrest (23-Nov-2016)
  

****
**** Cameroon's 84-year-old president Paul Biya exhibits same violence as other African leaders
****

I keep writing the same story over and over about leaders using
violence to stay in power forever, whether it's Pierre Nkurunziza in
Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert
Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa,
Bashar al-Assad in Syria. What these leaders all have in common is
that their countries had an ethnic or tribal generational crisis civil
war 30 or 40 years ago, and each leader and his cronies and thugs from
the same tribe have stayed in power all 30-40 years after the war
ended, It's now a generational Awakening or Unraveling era, and these
leaders are using slaughter, rapes, jailings and atrocities against
the other tribe to stay in power.

At the end of World War II, there was a British colony, the Anglophone
"British Cameroons," and there was a French colony, the Francophone
"French Cameroun" colony. The last generational crisis war was the
"UPC Revolt," 1956-1960, which was a bloody civil war by communists
attacking the French government in the Cameroun colony. The outcome
was independence in 1961, when the British Cameroons colony and the
French Cameroun colony were merged into a single country, and the
Anglophones became a disadvantaged and marginalized minority. Today,
the Anglophone regions are known as the "Southern Cameroons."

Paul Biya was born in 1933, and became president in 1982.
He consolidated his power by orchestrating a fake coup, giving
him an opportunity to eliminate all his rivals, and making
him, in effect, a dictator.

Biya's government has done some really stupid things in the past year,
apparently in the belief that by directing increasing violence at the
peaceful protesters, they'll stop peacefully protesting.
Unfortunately that's partially true, but not in the way Biya wants,
since some of them turn into violent protesters.

According to Carlson Anyangwe, a retired law professor from Anglophone
Southern Cameroons:

<QUOTE>"We don’t know why but when they shoot you, the body
is taken away. Whether you’re dead or not, we don’t know. I’m
sure if our people had arms, you would’ve heard of skirmishes
between our people and the military. But because they don’t have
guns or anything, they’re just protesting with their bare hands
and taking the risk of being shot at and being
killed."<END QUOTE>

Many people fear a full-scale civil war between the Anglophones and
Francophones, but that's almost impossible right now in a generational
Unraveling era, where there are still plenty of survivors of the
bloody "UPC Revolt" still alive, but as these survivors die off, the
level of violence is only going to increase. Mail and Guardian (South Africa) and Cameroon Concord

Related Articles

• Democratic Republic of Congo issues farcical call for elections in December 2018 (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Mass murderer Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has 90th birthday (24-Feb-2014)
  
  
• Brief generational history of Cameroon (15-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Early generational history of Cameroon (23-Nov-2016)
  
  
• The violence of generational Awakening eras (19-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cameroon, Southern Cameroons,
Paul Biya, UPC Revolt, Carlson Anyangwe,
Anglophones, Francophones, British Cameroons, French Cameroun,
Ambazonia, Liberation Movement of Southern Cameroons,
Pierre Nkurunziza, Burundi, Paul Kagame, Rwanda,
Yoweri Museveni, Uganda, Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe,
Joseph Kabila, DRC, Bashar al-Assad, Syria

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Nov-17 World View -- Poland's Independence Day march hijacked by right-wing 'White Nationalists'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Poland's Independence Day march hijacked by right-wing 'White Nationalists'
  
• Nationalism and xenophobia continue to rise around the world
  
• Recalling President Trump's July 6 speech in Warsaw Poland
  

****
**** Poland's Independence Day march hijacked by right-wing 'White Nationalists'
****


Far-right demonstrators burn flares and wave Polish flags on Saturday (AFP)

Tens of thousands of people marched in Warsaw on Saturday at the 99th
anniversary celebration of Poland's Independence Day. Poland became
an independent nation on November 11, 1918, the day that World War I
ended.

Many of the marchers carried right-wing "White Nationalist" banners,
including "Clean Blood," "Pray for an Islamic Holocaust," and "White
Europe, Europe must be white." Some wore masks and waved red and
white Polish flags, chanting "Death to enemies of the homeland," and
"Catholic Poland, not secular."

However, it's not known how many in the crowd sympathized with these
views, as many people told reporters that they were not part of the
radical-nationalist groups, but were simply attending in celebration
of Independence Day.

The march was not an official government event, but had three main
right-wing sponsors -- All Poland Youth, National Movement and
National Radical Camp, which is known by its acronym ONR. All Poland
Youth has been organizing these demonstrations since 2010. They
started out small, but have growing in size until this year, when the
overshadowed the other Independence Day events.

This is not surprising, as xenophobia and nationalism have been
occurring in countries around the world, and have been growing as we
go deeper and deeper into a generational Crisis era, and the survivors
of World War II die off.

Poland's Interior Minister Mariusz Blaszcza was pleased that there was
no violence:

<QUOTE>"Independence Day... was safe. We could see wide and
red in the streets of Warsaw, it was a beautiful sight. We are
proud that so many Poles decided to take part in
events."<END QUOTE>

The Independence Day march turned violent in 2014, when some of the
members of far-right groups broke away from the main rally and started
to throw stones and flares at the police.

This year, there were 8,600 police in Warsaw to keep the far-right
groups and the anti-fascist protesters apart, and so violence was
almost completely absent.

According to official figures, more than 65,000 people took part in
308 events nationwide, and 60,000 took part in an Independence March
in Warsaw. The News (Warsaw) and CNN and Politico (EU) and BBC (11-Nov-2014)

****
**** Nationalism and xenophobia continue to rise around the world
****

As regular readers know, I've been writing about the worldwide rise of
nationalism and xenophobia for years. In America, we've seen
xenophobia on the right directed against Muslims and Mexicans, who are
mostly Christians, and we've seen xenophobia on the left directed
against Tea Partiers and Midwesterners who (I believe) are mostly
Protestants. We've also seen calls for violence from left-wing groups
including Antifa and Black Lives Matter.

In Europe, there's been widely publicized xenophobia directed against
Muslims and Roma, but that's far from the only case.

An interesting example is the UK and its Brexit vote, which was
largely directed at immigration issues related to the EU rules about
"freedom of movement." However, "freedom of movement" in this context
has nothing to do with Syrian and African immigrants. It refers to EU
citizens being able to move freely from EU country to EU country, and
although immigration of Syrian refugees was a part of the Brexit
motivation, the main issue was actually Christians from eastern
European Union countries like Poland, Romania and Bulgaria.

So, if we want to speculate, it could be that part of the opposition
to the EU by far-right groups in Poland is a reaction to the
xenophobia of the British directed at Poland.

The phrase "European Project" refers to the efforts, begun in the
1950s, to take steps to prevent another massive war in Europe,
following the devastation of two world wars that destroyed Europe.
The war survivors fully understood that the massive destruction of
Europe had been caused by nationalism and xenophobia. This lead to
the Treaty of Rome in 1957, and eventually to the formation of the
European Union.

The European Project worked well, in that there's been no major
European war since then. However, the World War II survivors that
signed the Treaty of Rome and created the European Union are now
almost all gone. The younger generations have no clue how destructive
nationalism and xenophobia can be, and how they can lead to the
massive destruction of a new world war.

As the saying goes, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."

Each time that a World War II survivor dies or retires, and is
replaced by a younger person, then there is one more person who has no
clue about the destructiveness of xenophobia and nationalism.

In Japan, the xenophobia is directed at China. In China, the
xenophobia is directed at Japan and the United States. In India, it's
directed at Muslims in Pakistan. In Pakistan, it's directed at Hindus
in India. So nationalism and xenophobia are not narrow attitudes
directed at just one group, but are an organic part of every
population during a generational Crisis era, and may be directed at
any religious or ethnic group, depending on the country. Guardian (London) and Jewish Chronicle

Related Articles

• Rise of far-right AfD party in Germany raises international alarm bells (25-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Anti-immigrant party in Germany hands Angela Merkel a stinging defeat (05-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Migration crisis signals historic shifts in Europe and Mideast (24-Jan-2016)
  
  
• The threat to the 'European project' (20-Apr-2017)
  
  
• American xenophobia on the Left and on the Right (07-Nov-2010)
  

****
**** Recalling President Trump's July 6 speech in Warsaw Poland
****

On July 6, President Trump gave a speech to a euphoric crowd in Warsaw
Poland linking today's world to the 1930s, and compared the dangers
that Poland faced then to the dangers that Europe faces today from
terrorism:

<QUOTE>"Under a double occupation the Polish people endured
evils beyond description: the Katyn forest massacre, the
occupations, the Holocaust, the Warsaw Ghetto and the Warsaw
Ghetto Uprising, the destruction of this beautiful capital city,
and the deaths of nearly one in five Polish people. A vibrant
Jewish population -- the largest in Europe -- was reduced to
almost nothing after the Nazis systematically murdered millions of
Poland's Jewish citizens, along with countless others, during that
brutal occupation.

In the summer of 1944, the Nazi and Soviet armies were preparing
for a terrible and bloody battle right here in Warsaw. Amid that
hell on earth, the citizens of Poland rose up to defend their
homeland. I am deeply honored to be joined on stage today by
veterans and heroes of the Warsaw Uprising. ...

This continent no longer confronts the specter of communism. But
today we're in the West, and we have to say there are dire threats
to our security and to our way of life. You see what's happening
out there. They are threats. We will confront them. We will
win. But they are threats.

We are confronted by another oppressive ideology -- one that seeks
to export terrorism and extremism all around the globe. America
and Europe have suffered one terror attack after another. We're
going to get it to stop.

During a historic gathering in Saudi Arabia, I called on the
leaders of more than 50 Muslim nations to join together to drive
out this menace which threatens all of humanity. We must stand
united against these shared enemies to strip them of their
territory and their funding, and their networks, and any form of
ideological support that they may have. While we will always
welcome new citizens who share our values and love our people, our
borders will always be closed to terrorism and extremism of any
kind.

We are fighting hard against radical Islamic terrorism, and we
will prevail. We cannot accept those who reject our values and who
use hatred to justify violence against the innocent."<END QUOTE>

As I wrote at the time,
Trump's
speech is consistent with the principles and analysis provided by
Generational Dynamics. That analysis was provided to Trump by his
chief advisor at the time, Steve Bannon, who is an expert on
Generational Dynamics, as well as on military and world history.

However, in July, Trump had an additional message for the people of
Poland:

<QUOTE>"We have to remember that our defense is not just a
commitment of money, it is a commitment of will. Because as the
Polish experience reminds us, the defense of the West ultimately
rests not only on means but also on the will of its people to
prevail and be successful and get what you have to have. The
fundamental question of our time is whether the West has the will
to survive. Do we have the confidence in our values to defend them
at any cost? Do we have enough respect for our citizens to protect
our borders? Do we have the desire and the courage to preserve our
civilization in the face of those who would subvert and destroy
it?"<END QUOTE>

Unfortunately, the right-wing groups in Warsaw are not listening to
President Trump's message about defending our values. Marchers
carrying signs that say "Clean Blood," "Pray for an Islamic
Holocaust," and "White Europe, Europe must be white" may think that
they're defending their borders, but they are not. Instead, these
right-wing groups are writing a prescription for a new world war, and,
once again, total destruction of Europe, this time with nuclear
weapons.

Unfortunately, there's no way to stop this. As the WW II survivors
continue to die off, xenophobia and nationalism will continue to
increase on all sides, until some event triggers a small conflict that
spirals into full-scale war and a world war. Those who are lucky (or
unlucky) enough to survive will have plenty of time to contemplate
what they did wrong.

Related: Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations (07-Jul-2017)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Poland, Warsaw, Independence Day,
All Poland Youth, National Movement, National Radical Camp, ONR,
Mariusz Blaszcza, European Project, Treaty of Rome

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Nov-17 World View -- Severe drought in Kenya increases violence among herders, farmers and police

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Severe drought in Kenya increases violence among herders, farmers and police
  
• Tensions rise between Kenya and Tanzania over chicks and cattle
  

****
**** Severe drought in Kenya increases violence among herders, farmers and police
****


Dead cattle, allegedly shot and killed by police during shootout with herders (Standard Media)

A severe drought in Kenya has in the last year resulted in increasing
violence between three groups -- (1) farmers and ranchers who own
about a million acres of land, versus (2) herders (also called
pastoralists) whose cattle herds have been dying of starvation and who
invade ranches to find grazing land, versus (3) the police whose job
it is to prevent violence between the other two groups.

Pro-herder groups are accusing the police of being pro-farmer and of
purposely shooting and killing about 300 cattle in the province of
Laikipia on November 1. The police say that they were ambushed by
about 1,000 herders who used the cattle as shields and then fired at
the police, who returned fire blindly, unable to see the herders
through the herd. The police also say that only 75 cattle were
killed.

(As an aside, this is the second time recently that I've heard this
story. The four American soldiers who were killed in Niger were
ambushed when jihadists sent a herd of cattle towards them, blinding them,
and then attacked, using
heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and Kalashnikov rifles.)

Although farmers and herders have generally gotten along with each
other for years, the population of herders has been growing along with
their herds, and the drought has led to a crisis where many herders'
families are facing starvation. The herders say that because of the
drought crisis, herders should have some controlled access to the
ranches of farmers and ranchers.

This has all become linked to tribal politics in Kenya, especially
with the chaos surrounding recent presidential elections. Kenya's
president Uhuru Kenyatta won reelection in the August 8 election, but
Kenya's Supreme Court agreed with the opposition that the election was
"invalid, null and void" because of electoral committee irregularities
and illegalities.

A new election was held October 26, but the opposition boycotted it,
with the result that Kenyatta won that election by over 90%. The
opposition is also challenging that election.

President Uhuru Kenyatta is from the market-dominant Kikuyu tribe,
which is the tribe of wealthy landowners, farmers and ranchers.

His opponent, Raila Odinga, is from the Luo tribe, an offshoot of the
Kalenjins, who are the tribe of marginalized herders and pastoralists.
Odinga says that the government should compensate the pastoralists
whose livestock were killed by the police, adding:

<QUOTE>"Pastoralists should have controlled access to ranches
during moments of drought. Criminalization of pastoralists should
stop since they contribute to the nation’s economy."<END QUOTE>

The Supreme Court is now considering motions by Odinga and the
opposition to nullify the October 26 election as well. Lawyers
representing the electoral commission are asking the court to throw
out the motions submitted by Odinga, and are also accusing Odinga of
promoting election day violence.

In 2007, there was a presidential election where Odinga from the Luo
tribe was defeated for president by another member of the Kikuyu
tribe.

After the December 2007 president elections, there was a period of
extremely bloody inter-tribal violence in the Rift Valley in Kenya,
beginning early in 2008. The worst atrocity occurred when 30 people
were lured into a church to escape violence, and a young gang locked
the doors and set the church on fire, burning everyone alive. All in
all, more than 1,200 people were killed in the tribal violence between
the Kalenjins, who are mostly herders, and the Kikuyus, who are mostly
farmers.

In 2017, there are fears that there will be renewed violence related
to the election chaos, combined with the violence between herders and
farmers. IRIN - United Nations and The Nation (Kenya) and Standard Media (Kenya) and The Nation (Kenya) and The Economist

Related Articles

• Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war (02-Jan-2008)
  
  
• Ethnic revenge massacre in Kenya kills 41 (22-Dec-2012)
  
  
• Kenya's herders attack well-known conservationist, stoking tribal tensions (24-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Kenya's government in chaos as it faces a new election delay (20-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Violence in Nigeria grows over clashes between herders and farmers (03-Nov-2017)
  

****
**** Tensions rise between Kenya and Tanzania over chicks and cattle
****

Kenya has launched a formal protest against the neighboring country
Tanzania for auctioning off 1,300 Kenyan cattle and burning alive
6,500 Kenyan chicks.

Two weeks ago, Tanzania seized and burned alive 6,500 chicks that had
been brought from Kenya into Tanzania by traders, claiming that the
chicks had been imported illegally.

Then last week, Tanzania seized and auctioned off 1,300 cattle that
had crossed the border from Kenya in search of grazing land.

A Kenyan official said that the act had violated historical relations
between the two countries:

<QUOTE>"Kenya-Tanzania relations are longstanding, rich and
complex and should not be jeopardized by a hardening of positions
over minor issues that can be easily resolved through candid and
open dialogue."<END QUOTE>

Statements issued by Tanzania's president John Magufuli said:

<QUOTE>"Those who sneak with their livestock into this
country will not be spared. ... Let them (Kenyans) also take
similar action if cows from Tanzania are arrested in their
country."<END QUOTE>

According to another Kenyan official, "This man [Magufuli] is a
disgrace to East Africans. He continues to sabotage good
neighborliness with his government officers harassing Kenyans over
flimsy grounds." The National (Kenya) and Capital FM (Kenya) and The Nation



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, farmers, ranchers, herders, pastoralists,
Luo, Kikuyu, Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga,
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, IEBC,
Tanzania, John Magufuli

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Nov-17 World View -- BBC reports hoax by US-led coalition about ISIS evacuation from Raqqa Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• BBC reports hoax by US-led coalition about ISIS evacuation from Raqqa Syria
  
• Syria war violence surges as Bashar al-Assad repeats Aleppo genocide in Ghouta
  
• Apparent coup is in progress in Zimbabwe against 93-year-old Robert Mugabe
  

****
**** BBC reports hoax by US-led coalition about ISIS evacuation from Raqqa Syria
****


A picture of Raqqa taken on October 28 (AFP)

Calling it "the dirty Raqqa deal that no one wants to talk about," the
BBC has found that the US-led coalition military issued extremely
misleading statements last month, when the so-called Islamic State (IS
or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was evacuated from Raqqa, the capital of
their self-styled caliphate.

It was in November of last year that the coalition made a surprise
announcement that an operation would begin to recapture Raqqa from
ISIS. The announcement was controversial because the principal
fighters would be from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), comprising
a majority of Kurdish fighters and a minority of Arab fighters, backed
by American warplanes. Turkey was particularly opposed to the
participation of the Syrian Kurds, whom the Turkish government
considers to be all terrorists. However, the Kurds were chosen
because the US considers them to be the best and most effective
fighting force in Syria versus ISIS.

By September of this year, there was widespread reporting that the SDF
had almost entirely recaptured Raqqa from ISIS, and that total victory
was only a few days away. However, in mid-October there was another
surprise announcement: Instead of killing or capturing all the ISIS
fighters in Raqqa, they would be permitted to leave and go to live
elsewhere.

I wrote briefly about this evacuation deal
last month when it was announced. I went back to my
news article archive to reread the articles that I had used
as sources at the time. According to these articles:

• Only a few dozen militants, in addition to the families, would
  be evacuated out of Raqqa by bus.
  
• The evacuees would all be Syrians; foreign fighters would not be
  evacuated, but would be taken prisoner.
  
• The evacuees would be taken to Deir az-Zour, in a region already
  controlled by ISIS.

This sanguine description has been contradicted in several ways by the
BBC report. The reporter, Quentin Sommerville, visited Raqqa and
followed the path that the bus convoy took last month into Deir
az-Zour. He interviewed dozens of people who were either on the
convoy, including bus drivers, or observed it, and to the men who
negotiated the deal.

Sommerville reported the following, based on interviews with witnesses
and bus drivers and on amateur video:

• There were over 4,000 people in the convoy, including some of
  ISIS's fiercest fighters, and including women and children.
  
• There were many foreigners in the convoy -- from France, Turkey,
  Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, China, Egypt, Tunisia, and
  other countries.
  
• The convoy was 6-7 km long, and contained 47 trucks, 13 buses,
  and over 100 vehicles owned by the ISIS militants.
  
• Ten trucks were loaded to the top with weapons and
  ammunition.
  
• The bus drivers were furious. They had been told that it would be
  a quick trip. Instead, it took several days, their lives were
  constantly at risk, and they still haven't been paid.

According to Sommerville, interviews with human smugglers working on
the Syria-Turkey border have revealed a surge in people trying to
cross the border into Turkey. It's feared that some wish to
return to their home countries in Europe and Russia to continue
the jihadist fight.

The BBC says that once the Raqqa investigation was completed and the
facts were presented to the coalition military, they confirmed them.
Al Araby (UK, 15-Oct) and BBC
and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Daily Mail (London)

Related Articles

• Armies and militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria increasingly turn on each other (15-Oct-2017)
  
  
• US-backed Kurdish militias in Syria make surprise announcement of Raqqa operation (07-Nov-2016)
  
  
• In dramatic development, US warplanes smash fortified wall in Raqqa, Syria (05-Jul-2017)
  
  
• US will 'quickly' arm Kurdish militias in Syria, despite Turkey's opposition (11-May-2017)
  

****
**** Syria war violence surges as Bashar al-Assad repeats Aleppo genocide in Ghouta
****

It was a year ago that the army of Syria's psychopathic president
Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia's air force, was determined to
slaughter as many of the 275,000 residents of Aleppo to be killed,
even though only all but a few thousand were innocent civilians.
Syrian and Russian warplanes bombed hospitals, schools and civilian
neighborhoods even in cities where al-Nusra was never present. ( "7-Oct-16 World View -- UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas"
)

The violence against Aleppo and other western cities was to have
ended as a result of the "de-escalation zone" agreement reached
by Russia, Iran and Turkey, meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan.
However, the agreement never really had a chance, because
al-Assad opposed it.

So it's not surprising that al-Assad is repeating this
genocidal attacks on the Sunni Muslims that he hates, this
time in East Ghouta.

Ghouta has always been particularly hated by al-Assad. In 2013, he
ordered what a United Nations investigation found to be 'large scale' use of Sarin gas on the people of Ghouta,'
including women and children.

According to Jan Egeland, the UN Special Envoy for Syria:

<QUOTE>"I feel as if we are now returning to some of the
bleakest days of this conflict again. ...

Nowhere is it as bad as in eastern Ghouta, which is the area just
next to the capital Damascus city, it is in rural Damascus, east
of the capital. This epicenter of suffering has 400,000 civilians,
men, women, and children, in a dozen besieged towns, and
villages. ...

Winter is coming, winter in Syria is as hard as it is in Europe,
the difference between in Europe and in Syria is that people are
now sitting after a 7-year war, longer than the second World War,
they have little, if no, reserves, they have no heat in the house,
they live in a ruin, it will be a horrific winter. In eastern
Ghouta the price of a food basket is ten times that of the average
in the country, so people cannot afford food and that will be
their situation as the harsh winter is coming."<END QUOTE>

We can assume that we're going to see a repeat in Ghouta that
we saw last year in Aleppo. As I've written many times, al-Assad
is the worst genocidal leader so far in the 21st century,
and the war in Syria will continue as long as he's in power.

There is an interesting contrast between the two stories presented
in this article.

In Aleppo, and probably in Ghouta, al-Assad and Russia are using the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter,
as Russia used against Grozny in its 1990s war against
Chechnya.

But in Raqqa, rather than commit mass slaughter against civilians,
the SDF and the coalition allowed the ISIS fighters to escape,
and even provided transportation for them.

So we have two similar situations, but two different military
strategies. Perhaps one day historians will look back at this time to
decide which strategy was the best. United Nations and Syria Direct and Al Araby (UK)

Related Articles

• Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria (02-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble (24-Sep-2016)
  
  
• UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Syria's war resumes in full, as 'de-escalation' agreements unravel (06-Oct-2017)
  

****
**** Apparent coup is in progress in Zimbabwe against 93-year-old Robert Mugabe
****

As this article is being written on Tuesday evening ET, there is an
apparent military coup in progress, as soldiers have reportedly taken
over the headquarters of Zimbabwe's national broadcaster, ZBC, in the
capital city Harare. Heavy gunfire and artillery have also been
heard, as well as loud explosions.

The coup attempt was apparently triggered when Robert Mugabe, the 93
year old president, sacked the VP so that his wife can succeed him.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe is in a
generational Awakening era. This means that if the coup is
successful, it would be an Awakening era climax, something that
signals a victory of the younger post-war generation over the
generations of war survivors. This is similar to the forced
resignation of President Richard Nixon in America in 1974, which was
also an Awakening era climax, signaling the victory of the young
post-war Boomer generation over their parents, the World War II
survivors. When a successful coup is part of an Awakening era climax,
then it's sometimes also called a "velvet coup," since there's usually
little violence involved. BBC

Related Articles

• Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe sacks the VP so that his wife can succeed him (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe bans food imports as new 'bond note' currency crashes (21-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Raqqa, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, Kurds, Deir az-Zour, BBC, Quentin Sommerville,
Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Ghouta, Russia, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Jan Egeland, Grozny Model,
Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Richard Nixon

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Nov-17 World View -- Zimbabwe coup splits ruling Zanu-pf party along generational lines

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• More on the evacuation of ISIS militants from Raqqa, Syria
  
• Zimbabwe coup splits ruling Zanu-pf party along generational lines
  
• Zimbabwe Commander Chiwenga gives a totally delusional explanation for the coup
  

****
**** More on the evacuation of ISIS militants from Raqqa, Syria
****

A couple of analysts that I heard on Wednesday provided additional
information about the evaluation of militants from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) from Raqqa that I described yesterday.
The coalition
permitted hundreds of ISIS militants, along with tons of weapons and
ammunition, to be transported by bus into Deir az-Zour, where they
were free to fight again.

According to these analysts, the ISIS evacuation into Deir az-Zour was
actually a strategic move by the US coalition. The militants were
transported into a region of Deir az-Zour that was already controlled
by ISIS, and there are Syrian and Iranian armies and Hezbollah and
Russian warplanes trying to recapture that region from ISIS. Thus,
the evacuation of ISIS fighters from Raqqa to Deir az-Zour actually
has the purpose of supporting the enemies of Syria, Iran and
Hezbollah.

The Youtube video for the full BBC report on the ISIS evacuation from
Raqqa can be found here: Youtube

Related: BBC reports hoax by US-led coalition about ISIS evacuation from Raqqa Syria (15-Nov-2017)

****
**** Zimbabwe coup splits ruling Zanu-pf party along generational lines
****


Zimbabwe's first lady Grace Mugabe has reportedly fled the country (AFP)

Insisting that there was "no military takeover" of Zimbabwe, General
Constantino Guvheya Nyikadzino Chiwenga, Commander of the Zimbabwe
Defense Forces (ZDF) on Wednesday led a military takeover of the
Zimbabwe. A statement by the ZDF spokesman said:

<QUOTE>"To both our people and the world beyond our borders,
we wish to make it abundantly clear that this is not a military
takeover of Government. What the Zimbabwe Defense Forces is doing
is to pacify a degenerating political, social and economic
situation in our country which if not addressed may result in
violent conflict. ...

We wish to assure the nation that His Excellency, The President,
of the Republic of Zimbabwe, and Commander-in-Chief of the
Zimbabwe Defence Forces, Cde R.G. Mugabe and his family are safe
and sound and their security is guaranteed.

We are only targeting criminals around him who are committing
crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the
country in order to bring them to justice. As soon as we have
accomplished our mission we expect that the situation will return
to normalcy."<END QUOTE>

Zimbabwe's 93-year-old president Robert Mugabe has not been heard
from. South Africa's president Jacob Zuma said that he has spoken to
Mugabe, who told him that he's ok, but he's confined to his home under
house arrest.

Zimbabwe's 52-year-old first lady, Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, the wife
of the president, has not been heard from either. The rumor is that
she's fled the country. The logical country for her to flee to is
South Africa, but she can't go there because she's wanted for violent
assault. In August, she went to South Africa and went to the
Johannesburg hotel room of her two sons, where she found her sons'
friend, a 20-year-old model named Gabriella Engels. Mugabe beat the
crap out of Engels with the heavy plug at the end of an extension
cord, leaving her with numerous gashes and scars, and putting her
entire career at risk. So it's still not known what country she's
fled to, but there are reports that on Wednesday she was seeking
asylum in Namibia.

The military coup was apparently triggered when Robert Mugabe sacked vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa

so that his wife Grace can succeed him and be the next president, thus
forming a kind of Mugabe dynasty.

Mnangagwa is part of the "old guard" that fought alongside Mugabe in
the violent "war of liberation" and victory over Ian Smith, the white
supremacist leader of Rhodesia. After the war ended, Mugabe's Shona
tribe turned against their co-victors, the Ndebele tribe. Mnangagwa
developed a reputation for ordering the unbridled slaughter, rape,
torture and murder of Ndebele tribesmen and women, leading to
Operation Gukurahundi, one of the greatest holocausts of the last
century.

So Mugabe and Mnangagwa have always been great friends, sharing
their psychopathic atrocities targeting the Ndebele, but they've
been feuding recently, and Mugabe decided that the next president
should be his wife Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe. This choice was
also supported by the Youth Wing of Mugabe's Zanu-pf party.

But this choice infuriated the old guard of war veterans who had
fought alongside Mugabe, hence the coup. Reuters (15-Aug) and Zimbabwe Herald

****
**** Zimbabwe Commander Chiwenga gives a totally delusional explanation for the coup
****

Mugabe's old guard war veterans are steeped in the erotic excitement
of the memories of their youths, when they fought against the white
supremacist Ian Smith and won.

On Wednesday, Commander Chiwenga of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces
referred to this liberation struggle to explain the purpose and
objective of the coup:

<QUOTE>"Zimbabwe’s history is hinged on the ideals of the
revolution dating back to the First Chimurenga where thousands of
people perished. Zanu-PF is the political Party that waged the
Second Chimurenga for our independence; the struggle that caused
the loss of over 50 000 lives of our people; the struggle in which
many Zimbabweans, in one way or the other, sacrificed and
contributed immensely for our liberation. Many of these gallant
fighters still live on with the spirited hope of seeing a
prosperous Zimbabwe, but also the hope of leaving behind
inheritance and legacy for posterity. ...

Our peace loving people who have stood by their Government and
endured some of the most trying social and economic conditions
ever experienced are extremely disturbed by what is happening
within the ranks of the national revolutionary Party. What is
obtaining in the revolutionary Party is a direct result of the
machinations of counter revolutionaries who have infiltrated the
Party and whose agenda is to destroy it from within.

It is saddening to see our revolution being hijacked by agents of
our erstwhile enemies who are now at the brink of returning our
country to foreign domination against which so many of our people
perished. The famous slogan espoused by His Excellency, The
President of the Republic of Zimbabwe, Head of State and
Government and Commander-in-Chief of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces,
Cde R. G. Mugabe; “Zimbabwe will never be a colony again” is being
seriously challenged by counter revolutionary infiltrators who are
now effectively influencing the direction of the Party.

It is our strong and deeply considered position that if drastic
action is not taken immediately, our beloved country Zimbabwe is
definitely headed to becoming a neo-colony again."<END QUOTE>

This statement is completely delusional. There is no possible
scenario where Zimbabwe would become a colony again.

The "erstwhile enemies" that Chiwenga is referring to are Grace Mugabe
and her supporters. Chiwenga is seeing hallucinations. He think's
Mugabe's wife is going to make "our beloved country Zimbabwe" into a
"neo-colony." This guy's a total nutjob. And young people in
Zimbabwe listening to this statement are going to know immediately
that it's crazy.

This is a neurological problem that seems to strike many leaders who
come to power after winning a particularly gruesome tribal or civil
war. Ordering and participating in thousands of atrocities, tortures,
mutilations, rapes, and killings is only possible for a certain kind
of sociopathic man, and the after effect leaves them traumatized for
life. Syria's Bashar al-Assad and Iran's Supreme Leader Seyed Ali
Khamenei are also complete nutjobs, just like Mugabe and Chiwenga.

When I first heard about the Zimbabwe coup attempt yesterday, I
immediately thought that it would be an Awakening era climax -- an
event that resolves the generational conflict between the generations
of survivors of the previous generational crisis war versus the
generations growing up after the war. The survivors of the war are
traumatized for their entire lives, and so they have quite different
personalities and behaviors than those growing up after the war, who
have no such traumas.

However, that clearly hasn't happened. The generational conflict has
not been resolved. The "old guard" is still in control; only the
names of the players have changed.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is an extremely
dangerous situation, as can be seen from the example of Syria. Bashar
al-Assad is completely delusional, and has unleashed his psychopathic
fury on his political enemies, as I've been describing since the war
began in 2011. Al-Assad has created millions of refugees flooding
into neighboring countries and Europe, and has created jihadist
militias ISIS and al-Nusra. This has destabilized the entire Mideast.

The old guard in Zimbabwe appears to be equally delusional, and so the
current crisis is far from ended. Zimbabwe's neighbors are
particularly worried about a flood of refugees from Zimbabwe. There
are already a million Zimbabweans working in South Africa, for
example, and a flood of refugees similar to what happened in Syria
would destabilize southern Africa. Zimbabwe Herald

Related Articles

• Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe sacks the VP so that his wife can succeed him (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe bans food imports as new 'bond note' currency crashes (21-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's 'Liberation Hero' president Robert Mugabe continues to destroy his country (04-May-2008)
  
  
• 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe now destroys Zimbabwe with cholera (08-Dec-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Raqqa, Deir az-Zour,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iran, Hezbollah, Russia,
Zimbabwe, Zanu-pf, Zimbabwe Defense Forces, ZDF,
Constantino Guvheya Nyikadzino Chiwenga,
Robert Mugabe, Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, Gabriella Engels,
South Africa, Namibia, Emmerson Mnangagwa,
Rhodesia, Ian Smith, Shona, Ndebele, Operation Gukurahundi,
Zanu-pf Youth Wing, Bashar al-Assad, Seyed Ali Khamenei

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun Sen can be reelected unopposed

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun Sen can be reelected unopposed
  
• Comparing Awakening Eras in Cambodia, Syria, Zimbabwe and other countries
  

****
**** Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun Sen can be reelected unopposed
****


Phnom Penh exhibit commemorating the Cambodian killing fields war of 1975-79

Cambodia's Supreme Court, believed to be completely controlled by
prime minister Hun Sen, ruled on Thursday that Hun Sen's opposition
party should be dissolved, and that its members should be prohibited
from political activities:

<QUOTE>"The supreme court has decided to dissolve the
Cambodia National Rescue party [CNRP] and ban 118 individuals
... from doing political activities for five years starting from
the day of this verdict announcement."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Cambodia is in a
generational Awakening era. The Buddhist society of the Khmer Rouge
in Cambodia in 1975-79, led by Pol Pot, perpetrated one of the top
mass genocides of the 20th century. The genocide killed something
like 1.7 to well over 2 million people, out of a population of 8
million. So around 20% of Cambodia's population were killed, making
it possibly the worst genocide, on a percentage basis, of the 20th
century.

This is exactly the same story that I've been writing about many times
recently. A country has a generational crisis civil war where ethnic
or tribal groups commit thousands of atrocities, tortures,
mutilations, rapes, and killings of each other. All the survivors are
traumatized for life, and when one side or the other takes power after
the war ends, they continue using some of the same techniques to stay
in power indefinitely. We've written about this in Zimbabwe,
Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Syria, Iran,
and elsewhere.

Hun Sen and his Cambodian People's Party (CPP) have controlled the
government since the end of the war, and Hun Sen himself has been the
country's leader since 1985. The crackdown began in 2013, when Hun
Sen was declared the winner of a close election whose results were
disputed by the opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party
(CNRP).

The CNRP has been gaining in popularity since 2013, and many people
thought that Hun Sen might be defeated in the 2018 elections,
something that he and his supporters would have to prevented at
all costs, by any means possible.

So Hun Sen began targeting CNRP leaders, arresting many of them. The
CNRP was particularly shocked on September 4 when 100 police showed up
at the home of the CNRP leader Kem Sokha and arrested him for treason.

Following the arrest, Hun Sen said:

<QUOTE>"The treason of colluding with foreigners to betray
the nation requires [us] to make an immediate arrest.

The third hand [the United States] used to use Lon Nol to conduct
a coup [in 1970], now the same problem happened.

The Americans used to do it, this problem, with Lon Nol and now
the American does this problem with Kem Sokha."<END QUOTE>

It's always fun to see how the United States get blamed for every
problem in the world. This charge of treason was based on a 2013
video in which Kem Sokha spoke of getting US assistance to plan his
political career. Hun Sen accused Sokha, his family, journalists,
foreign NGOs, the CIA, and the “extremist” ruling party of Taiwan of
orchestrating regime change in Cambodia.

If this sounds vaguely familiar to you, it's because it sounds the
same as the delusional statement by Zimbabwe's Commander Chiwenga that
we reported yesterday
following
the Zimbabwe coup, that "our revolution [is] being hijacked by agents
of our erstwhile enemies who are now at the brink of returning our
country to foreign domination against which so many of our people
perished."

So Hun Sen has been arresting leaders in the opposition CNRP political
party, and now has arranged to have the entire party dissolved by the
court, so that he can win an election next year. Phnom Penh Post and Guardian (London) and ABS-CBN (Manila) and Phnom Penh Post (5-Sep)

Related Articles

• Zimbabwe coup splits ruling Zanu-pf party along generational lines (16-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Burma's (Myanmar's) leaders may be inspired by Pol Pot's Cambodian 'Killing Fields' genocide (29-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Cambodia bans all sales of sand to Singapore (20-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple (17-Feb-2011)
  

****
**** Comparing Awakening Eras in Cambodia, Syria, Zimbabwe and other countries
****

Possibly the most significant finding from the development of
Generational Dynamics these last 15 years was the discovery of the
destructive role that generational Awakening eras play in country
after country. We've seen this destructive role in today's article on
Cambodia, and in previous articles on countries from Syria to Burundi
to Zimbabwe.

In any country, an Awakening era occurs after the Recovery Era that
follows a generational crisis war. A generational crisis war is the
worst kind of war, because the value of a human life goes to zero at
the war's climax, and the only thing that matters is survival of the
country or society and its way of life.

Western nations are not immune from the atrocities of a crisis war.
In World War II, American troops were sent onto the beaches of
Normandy, even though it was known that tens of thousands of them
would be slaughtered. Later, the reverse happened as the Allies
firebombed Dresden and Tokyo, and then nuked Japanese cities. These
events fit the definitions of "war crime" because they targeted large
numbers of innocent civilians, and would be described as such if it
weren't for the fact that Western nations won the war.

All nations and societies perform these atrocities during a
generational crisis war, especially as the climax of the war
approaches. But there are two distinctly different kinds of
generational crisis wars, and it's important to treat them separately,
because their behaviors during the following Awakening eras are
completely different.

In an external war, one nation's army invades another nation, with the
intent to capture territory or resources. There may be atrocities,
including torture, rape, and mass slaughter, but in the typical case,
when the war ends, the invading army leaves the country that it
invaded, and future relations between the two countries can be
negotiated through international diplomacy, such as in the United
Nations. The two sides do not have to "live with" one another.

But that's very different from an internal civil war, where one tribe
or ethnic group fights another within the same country. Typically,
the two tribes live in the same cities, neighborhoods and streets,
work in the same businesses, intermarry and allow their children to
play with one another.

So for example in the 1994 Rwanda genocide, the Hutus and Tutsis had
lived together for decades, had intermarried, had their kids play
games with each other and so forth. Then one day, a Hutu leader
announced over the radio, "Cut down the tall trees." The radio
announcement, which was heard all over the country, was some sort of
visceral signal. On cue, each Hutu did something like the following:
Picked up a machete, went to the Tutsi home next door, or down the
street, murdered and dismembered the man and children, raped the wife
and then murdered and dismembered her.

So when the war ends, the situation is quite different than in the
external war, since these two tribes or ethnic groups still have to
live with one another, in the same cities, streets and neighborhoods.
There are always calls for reconciliation and little feel-good news
stories, but the horrific atrocities are never forgotten. Even worse,
each tribe remembers the atrocities that the other side committed, but
develops amnesia about the atrocities that its own side committed.
And those partial memories are passed down to the children, who come
of age during the generational Awakening era.

Generational Dynamics is based on the foundational work on
generational theory developed by Strauss and Howe and published in
their book The Fourth Turning. That book was brilliant at the time
that it was published, but the research is now 25 years old, is badly
out of date, and has been shown to contain a number of serious errors.

The core error is the assumption that all generational timelines of
all nations are synchronized with each other, and in particular are
synchronized with "Anglo-American timeline" of Britain and North
America since the 1400s. The book doesn't even recognize the concept
of Awakening eras in other countries, since they are a time of
spiritual awakening and new ideas that are only possible in the
atmosphere of freedom that occurred in Britain and America. If they
exist at all in other countries, then they're synchronized with
Britain and America, which doesn't even make sense since there's no
reason why a tribe in mid-Africa should be following the timeline of
medieval England.

This core assumption is discarded in Generational Dynamics in favor of
the "Principle of Localization," which says that each society and
nation has a separate and distinct generational timeline throughout
history, although timelines of two countries can merge at times of
massive invasions and genocide.

So now returning to the distinction between external and internal
wars, the Awakening eras of different countries are quite different.
The spiritual awakening described by the Fourth Turning may occur in
America and Britain, but it certainly does not occur in the other
countries we've been discussing, the ones that fought tribal or ethnic
internal civil wars. In those countries, an Awakening era is a time
of government oppression, jailings and torture, in order to suppress
the other tribe or ethnic group.

There is some commonality between the two kinds of Awakening eras. In
both cases, they begin 15-20 years after the climax of the preceding
crisis war, when the new generation growing up after the war comes of
age and can make its voice heard -- and does so in riots and youth
demonstrations protesting government policies.

In the case of an Awakening era following an external war, these
anti-government protests do have a flavor of spiritual awakening, as
they did in America in the 1960s. But in countries where the
Awakening era follows a tribal or ethnic civil war, these protests are
seen by the government leaders as a threat being posed by the tribe or
ethnic group on the other side in the war. For that reason, the
government leaders suppress them, often violently.

This was true in all the countries that we've been discussing recently
and comparing with one another -- Cambodia, Iran, Syria, Zimbabwe,
Cameroon, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, DRC, and so forth. All of these
countries are currently in generational Awakening eras following a
tribal or ethnic crisis civil war in the 1960s-80s, and they're on
completely different timelines than America and Britain. And yet,
they're all very similar in that the leaders are doing everything
possible to stay in power for decades.

One question that I'm asked frequently is why this analysis doesn't
apply to the American Civil War of the 1860s.

The American civil war was not a war between two tribes or ethnic
groups, as the black slaves generally supported the South. The fault
line was geographical (North vs South), and so it had the
characteristics of an external war. The tribal and ethnic civil wars
that I've been talking about occur when two ethnic groups live
together, often in the same villages and neighborhoods, and people
start raping, torturing and slaughtering their next door neighbors.
This is a highly personal kind of war, very different from an external
war, where one country raises an army and invades another country, and
then the army withdraws when the war ends. The American North and
South were like two separate countries, with very different economies
and lifestyles, not like Hutus and Tutsis living next door to each
other. That's why that kind of personal civil war could not have
occurred, and the two were really more like two separate countries.
If the black slaves had risen up and fought against the southern
whites, then the Awakening era would have been far bloodier.

There are many events and actions in history that seem completely
inexplicable. How could anyone have been so delusional and so stupid
as to do X? The Generational Dynamics discovery of the significance
of generational Awakening eras in countries after a tribal or ethnic
civil war provides answers to many questions that have puzzled
historians for decades or even centuries.

Related Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning, and Donald Trump (09-Feb-2017)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cambodia, Killing fields, Hun Sen,
Cambodia National Rescue party, CNRP, Kem Sokha,
Cambodian People's Party (CPP, Lon Nol,
Zimbabwe, Constantino Guvheya Nyikadzino Chiwenga,
Syria, Burundi, Cameroon, Rwanda, Hutus, Tutsis,
Principle of Localization, Steve Bannon

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Nov-17 World View -- African leaders once again furious that they won't get a climate change bonanza

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Climate change superstars Germany and Norway humiliated at climate change conference
  
• African leaders once again furious that they won't get a climate change bonanza
  
• The flaws in the climate change story
  

****
**** Climate change superstars Germany and Norway humiliated at climate change conference
****


Kinshasa, the capital city of Democratic Republic of Congo, has benefited enormously from carbon emissions

The latest annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP23,
ended on Friday accomplishing nothing but a new collection of news
stories about politicians from countries around the world taking
credit for climate change leadership, and expressing outrage that
Donald Trump announced that he was leaving the previous climate change
agreement, and thereby allowing the world to slide into planetary
climate disaster.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel in particular has been a world leader
in feigned environmental concern. Years ago, she promised to close
Germany's nuclear power plants, saying that they were too dangerous.
She has repeatedly lambasted Trump for pulling out of the Paris
climate change agreement.

But it now turns out that Germany is not anywhere close to meeting its
CO2 emission commitments, and in fact is going backwards. Germany's
carbon emissions haven't declined for nearly a decade, and in fact
have been increasing for the last three years.

Germany did reduce carbon emissions in the 1990s, but even that
accomplishment is dodgy. In 1991, Communist East Germany merged with
West Germany to form today's Germany. East German factories were
still the same ones that the Soviets had built in the 1950s when they
annexed East Germany, and by 1991 those old, creaky factories were
spewing huge amounts of environment poisons, including CO2. During
the 1990s, the West Germans spent huge amounts of money to modernize
the East German factories, and in doing so they reduced carbon
emissions.

But those were the easy days. The commitment to close all nuclear
power plants by 2022 means that Germany's huge economy is going to
depend on coal for energy, and today 40% of German energy supply is
coal-based. So Merkel is going to have to do a U-turn on either
nuclear-generated energy or coal-generated energy, and either way,
there is no chance at all that Germany will meet its climate change
commitments.

Norway is another environmental superstar that is having similar
problems. Norway, with its cold, clean, crisp Nordic climate, has
always appeared to be an environmental model, if you didn't count the
fact that it's a major producer of oil and gas, which are its most
important exports.

In 2015, Norway awarded oil licenses to Statoil, Chevron and other
companies, allowing them to drill for oil in Norwegian waters in the
Barents Sea.

Well, Greenpeace and other environmental groups are suing Norway,
saying that the awards are unconstitutional because "Under article 112
of the constitution ... the Norwegian state has a duty to not hurt the
climate." According to Greenpeace:

<QUOTE>"Our goal is that the court agrees with us that
licenses awarded in the Barents Sea are invalid and should be
withdrawn because it violates future generations’ right to a
healthy environment."<END QUOTE>

The attorney representing Norway evoked laughter in the courtroom by
saying:

<QUOTE>"This is a type of constitutional activism we have not
seen before and that is different from our legal tradition in
Norway.

This is an American-style use of our judicial system. ...

It would stop all future oil licenses awarded off Norway and would
imperil hundreds of thousands of jobs."<END QUOTE>

What the examples of Germany and Norway show is that the whole climate
change program is a fantasy put forth by politicians for domestic
purposes. Ironically, Donald Trump is the only politician willing to
tell the truth. Council on Foreign Relations and Reuters

****
**** African leaders once again furious that they won't get a climate change bonanza
****

African leaders were furious
at
last year's climate change conference because Donald Trump had
unexpectedly won the US presidential election and said that he would
pull out of the climate change agreement. Even so, United Nations
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged a rapid scale-up in funding for
climate change programs, especially to support developing countries.
"Finance and investment hold the key to achieving low-emissions and
resilient societies," he said.

So now it's a year later, and there's another climate change
conference, and African leaders are furious again, because there were
plenty of promises made this week, but no commitments.

Africans claim that they're entitled to money because they're the
victims of climate change. That is, the West has caused the climate
change, and the Africans are suffering because of it. Augustine
Njamshi from the Pan-African Climate Justice Alliance (PACJA) says:

<QUOTE>"In general, Africa has not gotten what it wanted at
this Cop23. Because the discussions that matter to us, things
that matter to us have been relegated to the background and all
that we're hearing is what the developed countries want, and that
is not in the interest of Africa. ...

Africa has not contributed to this [climate change] problem, yet
it's bearing the consequences in a great way, in a massive way and
we don't have the luxury to adapt to the climate change
consequences, as well as we don't even have the means to do any
mitigation."<END QUOTE>

Actually, Africa has benefited enormously from carbon emissions. At
the beginning of this article, there is a picture of Kinshasa, the
capital city of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). You can see the
skyscrapers, apartment buildings, roads, cars, and other
infrastructure made possible by research and manufacturing performed
by the West. If it hadn't been for the West's CO2 emissions, the
people of Kinshasa would still be living in thatch huts and driving
around in carts pulled by donkeys and camels. Africa is as
responsible as anyone else is for carbon emissions because of
the enormous benefits they get.

And what would happen if a huge pot of money were given to Joseph
Kabila, the president of DRC, to mitigate climate change? Where would
that money go? Anyone who knows anything about what's going on in
Africa knows the answer. Kabila would use the money to provide
support and weapons to government militias slaughtering, raping and
mutilating thousands of people in Kasai province, where 3.9 million
people have already been forced to flee their homes.

I've been writing about climate change conferences for years, and it's
always been clear that they have nothing to do with mitigating any
climate problems. They have only one objective: To force the United
States and other western countries to pay billions of dollars to
leaders of "underdeveloped" countries, so that those leaders can use
the money to pay their cronies, pad their bank accounts, and buy
weapons to kill their enemies. I'm not aware of any proposal coming
out of a climate change conference that would actually reduce carbon
emissions. And the examples of Germany and Norway described above
illustrate this.

However, the conference did produce some good news for African
leaders. According to Chinese state media:

<QUOTE>"[Xie Zhenhua] said, through donating energy
conserving or renewable-energy facilities as well as climate
change surveillance instruments, and promoting climate-friendly
techniques, China has offered funds, technologies and capacity
building to the least developed countries, small-island countries
and African countries.

Since 2011, Chinese government has channeled 580 million yuan
(about 85 million U.S. dollars) to help other developing countries
to cope with climate change, through various initiatives ranging
from low-carbon and adaptation projects to capacity building
activities.

China has signed 32 MOUs with 28 developing countries on the
donation of materials needed in battling climate change, including
over 1.2 million energy-saving or solar-energy lamps, some 13,000
solar photo-voltaic power generating facilities, and over 10,000
clean stoves, among other donations. China also donated satellite
monitoring facilities to help these countries with early warning
of extreme weather.

Moreover, China helped train thousands of climate officials as
well as technicians from more than 120 countries on five
continents, according to Xie."<END QUOTE>

The 1.2 million energy-saving or solar energy lamps donated by China
should be particularly helpful to the people of Africa in mitigating
the effects of climate change. At least they won't be used to kill
people. Deutsche Welle and Radio France International and Xinhua

Related Articles

• African nations furious over possible collapse of climate change agreement (17-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Democratic Republic of Congo issues farcical call for elections in December 2018 (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement (23-Apr-2016)
  

****
**** The flaws in the climate change story
****

As I've written in the past, you can accept all the claims by the
climate change scientists that climate change is occurring, and that
it's caused by human behavior. Even under all those assumptions,
climate change predictions are still wrong, and have been consistently
wrong for about 30 years since climate change scientists have begun
making them.

The reason that climate predictions are consistently wrong is that
climate scientists simply ignore very important issues. I've tried
raising these issues with client scientists, but they simply blow me
off since these issues don't fit their narrative.

Here are two very important issues that client scientists ignore:

• One issue is technology -- how will advances in nanotechnology
  and biotechnology and the Singularity affect climate change? Climate
  scientists don't say, and how can they? There are scientists and
  researchers in every city in the world looking for technology
  solutions to the carbon emission and climate change problem. If a
  solution can be found, then it will be found, and no climate change
  agreement is needed, since the company that finds a solution stands to
  make a billion dollars.
  
  
• The second issue is war. Every continent of the world has had
  massive wars each century for millennia that have killed half the
  population. That this will happen this century is 100% certain. If
  the coming world wars kill half the population through nuclear
  weapons, ground war, disease and famine, then how will that affect
  climate change? Climate scientists won't say.

As regular readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
world is headed for a world war that will kill billions of people
through nuclear weapons, ground war, disease and famine. Climate
scientists claim that climate change is caused by human activity, and
so, the large reduction in population will completely remove whatever
threat the climate scientists are predicting.

With regard to technology, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Singularity -- the point in time when computers will be more
intelligent, more able, and more creative than humans -- will occur
around 2030. Each year we're increasingly able to see some of the
components that will bring that about. Artificial intelligence is
under development in every research lab in the world, and is advancing
rapidly. In particular, every military in the world is doing research
on robots, vehicles and aircraft that can kill enemies without human
intervention. Combine all that with 3D printing, and you can imagine
a world where computer entities are more intelligent than humans, can
duplicate themselves, and can fight against humans.

Even if you don't believe in that scenario, there's no doubt that
a great deal of new technology is being developed that can mitigate
the climate change problem. Think about how much technology has
been developed in the last 50 years, and think about how technology
development is growing exponentially faster. With or without
the Singularity, climate scientists have absolutely no clue
what the temperature will be at the end of the century, because
they have absolutely no clue what technology will be developed
to mitigate it.

Related Articles:

• Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030 (28-Dec-2015)
  
• Artificial Intelligence and Climate Change (29-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Horse manure and climate change (23-Sep-2014)
  
  
• UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce (14-Dec-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, COP23, Climate Change Conference,
Germany, Angela Merkel, Norway, Greenpeace,
Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Kinshasa, Joseph Kabila,
China, Xie Zhenhua, Artificial intelligence, Singularity

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Nov-17 World View -- Ecstatic throngs in Harare Zimbabwe demand that Robert Mugabe step down

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ecstatic throngs in Harare Zimbabwe demand that Robert Mugabe step down
  
• The events in Zimbabwe show how history unfolds and disasters occur
  

****
**** Ecstatic throngs in Harare Zimbabwe demand that Robert Mugabe step down
****


Anti-Mugabe protests in Harare Zimbabwe on Saturday

Up until a few days ago, anyone in Zimbabwe who criticized the 93 year
old genocidal dictator Robert Mugabe risked being jailed and tortured.
Mugabe's wife, 52 year old Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, said earlier this
year that Mugabe would continue governing from the grave:

<QUOTE>"One day when God decides that Mugabe dies, we will
have his corpse appear as a candidate on the ballot paper,

You will see people voting for Mugabe as a corpse. I am seriously
telling you — just to show people how people love their
president."<END QUOTE>

That's why everyone, including foreign reporters, were shocked and
thrilled to see tens of thousands of people cheering ecstaticly on
Saturday and marching in the capital city Harare, carrying banners
that read "Mugabe must go!" and "Leadership is not sexually
transmitted" -- the latter an allusion to the attempt by Grace Mugabe
to succeed her husband as president. Another sign read, "Mugabe must
rest now!", alluding to the fact that Mugabe falls asleep during
meetings.

On Wednesday, Zimbabwe's army took control of the government after
arresting the president Robert Mugabe and confining him to his home.
In addition, the army arrested a number of other ministers who are
supporting Mugabe.

However, the army is insisting that this is not a "coup." The reason
is that the African Union is compelled by its constitution to
intervene if a coup takes place.

Alpha Conde, who is Guinea's president and is also president of the
African Union said on Thursday:

<QUOTE>"We demand respect for the constitution, a return to
the constitutional order and we will never accept the military
coup d'état.

We know there are internal problems. They need to be resolved
politically by the Zanu-PF party and not with an intervention by
the army."<END QUOTE>

The Southern Africa Democratic Development Community (SADC) would also
have to take action in case of a coup, and so is insisting that it's
an internal government matter.

Thus, it's essential to the army that Mugabe be replaced by means of a
constitutional transition of power. This requires that Mugabe step
down voluntarily. However, Mugabe is not playing along. He says that
he plans to remain in office, and die in office. So the army is
resorting to a kind of "plan B" to convince Mugabe step down. The
first step was to encourage people to come to Harare on Saturday with
anti-Mugabe protests and demand that he step down, although with the
streets flooded with singing and dancing people on Saturday, it's
clear that they didn't need much encouragement.

For the next step in the plan, on Sunday, Mugabe will be fired as
leader of the government party, Zanu-Pf, though he'll still be
president of the country. In addition, his wife Grace will be fired
as head of the Zanu-Pf Women's League. At this point, the plan is
that Mugabe will no longer have any friends, allies or supporters, and
the hope is that he'll accept a dignified exit. In that case Emmerson
Mnangagwa, who used to be Robert Mugabe's vice president, will be
elevated to be president. However, I heard one official say that if
Mugabe still insists on staying in office, then things will "get
ugly."

By the way, neither Emmerson Mnangagwa nor Grace Mugabe have been
heard from since Wednesday.

Meanwhile, watching the street interviews with the people singing and
dancing in Harare on Saturday, it's obvious that most of the people
were in their own state of denial. Under Mugabe, they've suffered one
economic disaster after another, as Mugabe's "indigenization" program
threw out farm and business owners who knew how to run a farm or a
business, and replaced them with thugs and cronies from Mugabe's Shona
tribe who didn't know how to run a farm or business.

The gleeful people on the streets of Harare interviewed on Saturday
were saying things like "Mugabe fought our first war of independence,
and now when he's out it will be our second independence," with the
implication that things will get better. But things aren't going to
change at all. Mnangagwa is the same kind of genocidal psychopath
that Mugabe is. The same "old guard" will be in charge, though with
different players, and the same Shona thugs and cronies will be
running the farms and businesses.

And in the next few weeks and months as people realize that nothing is
going to change, there are going to be plenty of new crises. Reuters and Zimbabwe Herald and Times Live (South Africa) and CNN

****
**** The events in Zimbabwe show how history unfolds and disasters occur
****

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the events in
Zimbabwe the last few days are really quite remarkable. Seemingly the
entire popular of Zimbabwe suddenly underwent a huge, massive change
in behavior and attitude. Two weeks ago, everybody loved Mugabe. On
Saturday, everybody hated Mugabe and wanted to get rid of him.

And we know what triggered this change: Mugabe's announcement that he
would fire his vice president so that his own wife could replace him
as president. The resulting change was so fast and so massive that
reporters keep saying that they can't believe it even happened.

This kind of massive change in public opinion and behavior is the
stuff of history and major historical events, including major
historical disasters. In other circumstances, that kind of massive
lightning change in public opinion and behavior can cause a panic that
leads to a war, as happened for example when Israel panicked and
attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006. The attack was triggered when
Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers along the border, and the
attack came four hours later, with no plan and no objective.

That same kind of lighting change of public opinion and behavior can
also cause a major financial panic and crash, and sometimes we don't
even know what the trigger is. I often like to point out that, even
today, 88 years later, we still don't know what triggered the stock
market panic on August 28, 1929, and why it didn't occur six months
earlier or six months later.

Today there's a huge stock market bubble, with the S&P 500
price/earnings ratio almost 25, far above its historic value of 14.
China, the world's second largest economy, is running on a huge debt
bubble and a huge real estate bubble.

Of special note is the Bitcoin bubble. When I wrote about it
a month ago, Bitcoin was just above $5000.
Today it's close to $8000, having been at just $728 a year ago.
Bitcoin investments have nothing backing them except hot air and
promises, and the explosive growth of Bitcoins is one of the most
dramatic bubbles since the Tulipomania bubble of the 1600s. When the
Tulipomania bubble burst after a panic in 1637, people cursed tulips
for decades. When a panic occurs and the Bitcoin bubble implodes, the
cursing will be far worse.

The thing we should learn from the last two weeks in Zimbabwe is that
a panic can occur with lightning speed. Events that are provably
impossible today become not only possible but completely real
tomorrow. And unless you've anticipated those events and prepared
for them, then you'll suffer the consequences.

Related Articles

• Zimbabwe coup splits ruling Zanu-pf party along generational lines (16-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe sacks the VP so that his wife can succeed him (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Bitcoin super-bubble surges through $5,000 and blasts even higher (16-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Harare, Robert Mugabe, Zanu-pf,
Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, Alpha Conde, African Union, Guinea,
Southern Africa Democratic Development Community, SADC,
Emmerson Mnangagwa, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Bitcoin, Tulipomania

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

It is my observation that many political events that seem impossible before they happen that are surprises when they happen seem inevitable once they happen. Think of the revolutions of central and Balkan Europe in 1989 and 1990. As late as 1770, it might have seemed to any objective person that the British colonies from Massachusetts (Maine was a part of Massachusetts until 1820) to Georgia had a happier relationship with the British Crown than the Spanish colonies had with the Spanish Crown. Yet it was the 13 colonies, different as they were in economics and culture, that turned against the British King in 1776, seemingly at once. It would take nearly 35 years for any successful revolt against Spanish rule in the Americas (the rebellion of Tupac Amaru III in Peru, uniting First Peoples and Afro-Peruvians against Spanish oppressors in 1783 is very different from the American Revolution in more than the result). The Bolshevik Revolution might have seemed an absurdity in semi-feudal, intensely-religious Russia, but it happened there. About everyone now considers Lenin an inevitability in Russia in 1917. Iran in 1979? Likewise.

It is easy to believe that any social order will last forever. The political and economic leaders don't want change, and the People are scared to express any desire for change. A leader like Mugabe can seem charmed. After all, he is the founder of the system, and many people got what they have under him. But fear can dissipate fast, and old resentments can appear quickly on placards. Most people figure out quickly which way the wind is blowing. The most corrupt and brutal are the last to get the message, and they are the ones who find themselves in prison or before a firing squad.

[Warren Dew]

(11-16-2017, 10:50 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So now returning to the distinction between external and internal
wars, the Awakening eras of different countries are quite different.
The spiritual awakening described by the Fourth Turning may occur in
America and Britain, but it certainly does not occur in the other
countries we've been discussing, the ones that fought tribal or ethnic
internal civil wars.  In those countries, an Awakening era is a time
of government oppression, jailings and torture, in order to suppress
the other tribe or ethnic group.

I question how different it is.  There was plenty of government oppression and jailing in the US in and around the awakening era in response to civil rights and antiwar demonstrations.  I'd suggest we have to wait until these countries get well into the unravelling era to see if there's anything fundamentally different.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Nov-17 World View -- Robert Mugabe stuns Zimbabwe by refusing to step down

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Robert Mugabe stuns Zimbabwe by refusing to step down
  
• Plans go ahead to impeach Mugabe
  

****
**** Robert Mugabe stuns Zimbabwe by refusing to step down
****


Robert Mugabe, giving his speech on Sunday

The people of Zimbabwe, as well as the international media reporters,
were uniformly stunned (or gobsmacked, as one BBC reporter said) by
Sunday's events, that were incredible even by the standards of
Zimbabwe.

First, as expected, the governing party of president Robert Mugabe's
governing Zanu-pf party voted to expel him from the party, and to
demand his resignation. According to the resolutions of the Zanu-pf
Central Committee:

<QUOTE>"The Central Committee congratulated the masses of
Zimbabwe for their participation in the historic solidarity march
yesterday in support of the Zimbabwe War Veterans’ Association.
...

That Cde R.G. Mugabe be and he is hereby recalled from the
position of President and First Secretary of Zanu-PF
forthwith. Further, the resolutions that Cde R.G. Mugabe should
resign forthwith from his position as President and Head of State
and Government of the Republic of Zimbabwe and if the resignation
has not tendered by midday tomorrow 20 November 2017 (Monday), the
Zanu-PF Chief Whip (Cde Lovemore Matuke) is ordered to institute
proceedings for the recall of the President in terms of Section 97
of the Constitution of Zimbabwe. ...

That Cde E. D. Mnangagwa be the party’s nominee to be appointed to
fill the vacancy of State President in terms of Part 4, paragraph
14 sub paragraph 5 of the Sixth Schedule of Constitution of
Zimbabwe Amendment Number 20. That the Extraordinary Congress
scheduled for 12th to the 17th of December 2017 should proceed for
purposes of ratifying the decisions we have taken this afternoon,
in particular ratifying the appointment of Cde ED Mnangagwa as the
First Secretary and President of Zanu-PF. The Extraordinary
Congress should also ratify the decision we have taken today to
recall Cde R.G. Mugabe as President and First Secretary of
Zanu-PF. ...

That Cde Phelekezela Mphoko be and is hereby recalled from the
position of Vice President and Second Secretary of Zanu-PF for
being divisive, a member of the cabal, protecting criminals,
preaching hate speech and behaving in a manner inconsistent with
the Office and decorum of the Office."<END QUOTE>

According to numerous reports, Mugabe and the army had reached
agreement that Mugabe would announce that he would step down in a
speech televised nationally (and, in fact, globally, since a lot of
people around the world, including myself, were watching it live).

So as the world watched, Mugabe came into a conference room with a
dozen army generals, shook their hands, and sat down at the table to
read his speech.

Now what happened next is open to speculation. According to some
social media, one could see Mugabe switch speeches just before he sat
down, though this has not been confirmed.

At any rate, there's little doubt at the shock and surprise on the
faces of the army generals as Mugabe read his speech. Instead of
resigning, he said that he would be presiding over the December 12-17
Extraordinary Congress mentioned in the above Zanu-pf statement, and
then he went on to forgive the army:

<QUOTE>"We cannot be guided by bitterness or revengefulness
which would not makes us any better Zimbabweans. ...

The congress is due in a few weeks from now. I will preside over
its processes, which must not be prepossessed by any acts
calculated to undermine it or to compromise it the outcomes in the
eyes of the public. The way forward thus cannot be based on
swapping by tricks that ride roughshod over party rules and
procedures. ...

Whatever the pros and cons of the way they [the army] went about
registering those concerns, I as the president of Zimbabwe, as
their commander in chief, do acknowledge the issues they have
drawn my attention to, and do believe that these were raised in
the spirit of honesty and out of deep and patriotic concern for
the stability of our nation and for the welfare of our people. ...

We must learn to forgive and resolve contradictions real or
perceived in a comradely Zimbabwean spirit.

I’m happy that throughout the short period the pillars of state
remained functional."<END QUOTE>

He gave the speech in a halting manner, with several pauses, and
seemed at times to be confused. At the end of the speech, he said
goodnight, and then he apologized for having said some things out of
order, and hoped that they could be corrected.

Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was dumbstruck. "I am
baffled. It’s not just me, it’s the whole nation. He’s playing a
game. He is trying to manipulate everyone. He has let the whole nation
down."

Some people expressed sadness that 93 year old Mugabe had skipped his
chance to leave office with dignity, and instead would be humiliated
by the events to come. Reuters and Zimbabwe Herald and Zimbabwe Herald

****
**** Plans go ahead to impeach Mugabe
****

The Zimbabwean War Veterans Association, otherwise known as the "old
guard," is the organization of veterans that won the war against Ian
Smith, the white supremacist leader of Rhodesia, leading to
independence of Zimbabwe in 1980.

Chris Mutsvangwa, the leader of the Zimbabwean War Veterans
Association, said that Mugabe has a Monday noon deadline to resign,
and then plans to impeach Mugabe would begin on Tuesday, as scheduled.
Furthermore, he said that people would take to the streets on
Wednesday, hoping to replicate the events of Saturday, when hundreds
of thousands of people were in the streets demanding that Mugabe step
down.

However, some analysts are saying that the plans to impeach Mugabe are
fraught with complications.

One problem is that there may not be sufficiently severe charges to
justify impeachment in the eyes of some members of the parliament.

Even if an impeachment is successful, then who would become president?
In the Zanu-pf statement quoted above, Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa
should become president. But Mugabe recently fired Mnangagwa as vice
president, with the objective of replacing him with his own wife Grace
Mugabe, who would then succeed him. So Mnangagwa could not become
vice-president unless Mugabe could be convinced to reinstate him prior
to being impeached and convicted.

Otherwise, the next candidate to become president would be the second
vice president -- Phelekezela Mphoko.

However, if you look again at the Zanu-pf statement quoted above,
Mphoko is accused of "being divisive, a member of the cabal,
protecting criminals, preaching hate speech and behaving in a manner
inconsistent with the Office and decorum of the Office."

So if the strict rules of Zimbabwe's constitution are followed, then
the entire impeachment process is potentially blocked by many severe
complications.

Mugabe was undoubtedly aware of all this when he refused to resign.
According to some commentators, he may be trying to provoke the army
into deposing him by force, which could theoretically trigger an
intervention by the African Union and the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) bloc of nations. Australian Broadcasting and Guardian (London) and The Nation (Kenya)

Related Articles

• Ecstatic throngs in Harare Zimbabwe demand that Robert Mugabe step down (19-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe coup splits ruling Zanu-pf party along generational lines (16-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe sacks the VP so that his wife can succeed him (07-Nov-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Harare, Robert Mugabe, Zanu-pf,
Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, African Union,
Southern Africa Democratic Development Community, SADC,
Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, Phelekezela Mphoko,
Zimbabwe War Veterans’ Association, Chris Mutsvangwa

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(11-19-2017, 01:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I question how different it is. There was plenty of government
> oppression and jailing in the US in and around the awakening era
> in response to civil rights and antiwar demonstrations. I'd
> suggest we have to wait until these countries get well into the
> unravelling era to see if there's anything fundamentally
> different.

You've gotta be kidding. Where did this come from? Have you even
read the articles I've written about these countries?

In DRC, government-sponsored milities are killing and mutilating
opposition civilians. 3.9 million people have been forced to flee
their homes to escape the violence, with hundreds of thousands in
Zambia, Angola and other countries. Nothing like that happened in
America.

In Burundi, a UN report has documented massive numbers of attacks on
political opponents, including torture, sexual violence, arbitrary
jailings, targeted assassinations and summary executions. Nothing
like that happened in America.

In Syria, the government has repeatedly used missile attacks on
innocent civilians in marketplaces, hospitals, schools, and ordinary
neighborhoods, and has even used Sarin gas on opponents. Nothing like
that happened in America.

In Cambodia, the governing party has succeeded in using the courts to
dissolve the opposing political party and arrest its leaders. Lyndon
Johnson may have wanted to do that, but in the end, nothing like that
happened in America.

So I don't know what political or ideological point you're trying to
make from this bizarre comparison, but America was nothing like these
countries.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(11-20-2017, 10:13 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(11-19-2017, 01:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   I question how different it is.  There was plenty of government
>   oppression and jailing in the US in and around the awakening era
>   in response to civil rights and antiwar demonstrations.  I'd
>   suggest we have to wait until these countries get well into the
>   unravelling era to see if there's anything fundamentally
>   different.  

You've gotta be kidding.  Where did this come from?  Have you even
read the articles I've written about these countries?

In DRC, government-sponsored milities are killing and mutilating
opposition civilians.  3.9 million people have been forced to flee
their homes to escape the violence, with hundreds of thousands in
Zambia, Angola and other countries.  Nothing like that happened in
America.

In Burundi, a UN report has documented massive numbers of attacks on
political opponents, including torture, sexual violence, arbitrary
jailings, targeted assassinations and summary executions.  Nothing
like that happened in America.

In Syria, the government has repeatedly used missile attacks on
innocent civilians in marketplaces, hospitals, schools, and ordinary
neighborhoods, and has even used Sarin gas on opponents.  Nothing like
that happened in America.

In Cambodia, the governing party has succeeded in using the courts to
dissolve the opposing political party and arrest its leaders.  Lyndon
Johnson may have wanted to do that, but in the end, nothing like that
happened in America.

So I don't know what political or ideological point you're trying to
make from this bizarre comparison, but America was nothing like these
countries.

Face it Xenakis, Americans and westerners in general don't want a "global nanny" international system.