Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Feb-18 World View -- Egypt's army announces major counter-terrorism operation in Sinai - with Israel's help

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt's army launches 'Comprehensive Operation Sinai 2018' to purge country of terrorism
  
• Multiple reports indicate that Egypt and Israel are cooperating in Sinai
  

****
**** Egypt's army launches 'Comprehensive Operation Sinai 2018' to purge country of terrorism
****


From November 2017: Rescue personnel at the site of the bomb blast at Al-Rawda mosque in North Sinai. (Gulf News)

Egypt's army announced the launch of a major military operation in the
Sinai Peninsula. The operation will be targeting several jihadist
terror militias, but it's expected that the major target will be the
Bedouin-based Sinai terrorist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar
Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which changed its name to
al-Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance in
2015 from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh).

In November, at least 235 people were killed when ABM terrorists stormed the Al-Rawda mosque in Bir al-Abed in Egypt's Northern Sinai
with explosives and gunfire with heavy
weapons.

At that time, Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi promised revenge
for these "vile and treacherous" attacks:

<QUOTE>"The army and police will avenge our martyrs and
return security and stability with force in the coming short
period."<END QUOTE>

Egypt declared a nationwide state of emergency last April when twin suicide bombings on Palm Sunday at two Coptic churches
in two cities north of Cairo killed at least 47
people.

In 2014, al-Sisi declared a state of emergency in northern Sinai
following a suicide bombing that killed
33 soldiers. He said at the time that "the war in Sinai will last for
a long time, as there are a lot of terrorists hiding in the peninsula,
but this new level of attacks has put us in a new level of planning
too in order to combat the terrorism there."

The operation announced on Friday is called "Comprehensive Operation
Sinai 2018." The operation is said to be unprecedented in its scope,
coordination and size, involving thousands of troops. According to
the army's announcement:

<QUOTE>"[This] morning the law enforcement forces began to
implement the Comprehensive confrontation plan of terrorist and
criminal elements and organizations in North and Central Sinai and
other areas of the Delta of Egypt and the Western Desert
linebacker. [The objectives are] clearing areas where there are
terrorist hotbeds, and to fortify Egyptian society from the evils
of terrorism and extremism in parallel with other crimes affecting
security and internal stability. ...

As part of ongoing law enforcement efforts, elements of the Air
Force have targeted some of the hotspots, dens, weapons and
ammunition depots used by terrorist elements as a base for
targeting law enforcement forces and civilian targets in Northern
and Central Sinai."<END QUOTE>

The timing of the operation is probably related to Egypt's 2018
presidential election, in which el-Sisi is running for reelection.
The election will be held on March 26-28. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Egypt Today

****
**** Multiple reports indicate that Egypt and Israel are cooperating in Sinai
****

For several years, there have been reports that Egypt and Israel have
been cooperating in Egypt's Sinai region. These reports were not
confirmed, and some readers criticized me for mentioning them at all.
Nonetheless, I always believed
that they were true, because they made sense. Terrorists in Northern
Sinai were killing Egyptians, and they were also shooting missiles
across the border into Israeli towns. It seemed logical that the two
countries would cooperate military to destroy their common enemy.

Now, in the last two weeks, there have been a flurry of new reports
about this. Once again, the reports have not been officially
confirmed, but they're now widely believed.

Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979. The treaty included
the provisions that neither Israel nor Egypt can mass military forces
or take military actions in Northern Sinai.

Several years ago, Israel and Egypt announced that Israel was waiving
the restriction on Egypt's military in Sinai, so that Egypt's army
could fight the jihadist militias. However, the possibility of
Israeli airstrikes into Sinai is clearly forbidden by the treaty, and
if permitted by Egypt would be a very controversial issue in the Arab
world, and could expose Egypt to criticism from its Arab allies.

Last week, the NY Times reported the following:

<QUOTE>"For more than two years, unmarked Israeli drones,
helicopters and jets have carried out a covert air campaign,
conducting more than 100 airstrikes inside Egypt, frequently more
than once a week — and all with the approval of President Abdel
Fattah el-Sisi."<END QUOTE>

The report has been dubbed "fake news" by some Arab media, but there
seems to be little doubt that it's true. BBC and
Middle East Eye and VOA and Jerusalem Post

Related Stories

• Egypt's worst terrorist attack in modern history kills 235 people in Sufi mosque (25-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Egypt in 3-month state of emergency after Coptic church bombings (10-Apr-2017)
  
  
• ISIS forces hundreds of Christians to flee Egypt's North Sinai (28-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Obama seeks Iran's help as anti-ISIS coalition shrinks (15-Feb-2015)
  
  
• ISIS-linked terrorists kill dozens in Egypt's northern Sinai (30-Jan-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi,
North Sinai, Al-Rawda,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Bedouins, Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

(02-09-2018, 11:10 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(02-08-2018, 10:12 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   "As demonstrated in the next war, World War I gave at best
>   temporary and superficial solutions to the failings of the pre-war
>   world. It weakened the best of men and empowered the worst. Donald
>   Trump, who seems to have little studied history of any kind,
>   attaches himself as much as possible to military pomp and
>   regimentation -- just like the Emperors of Germany,
>   Austria-Hungary, and Russia, all of whose political systems
>   disintegrated at or near the ends of the war. A militaristic
>   culture is spoiling for a fight, and those spoiling for a fight
>   usually get one. It is the same with kings in palaces as it is
>   with angry drunks in seedy saloons."

As far as I know, Obama, Bush and Clinton were also ignorant about
history.  Obama was particularly contemptuous of most history because
he was contemptuous of anything that came from Boomers, just as you're
contemptuous of anything that comes from Trump.

Acute, intense study of history is not enough. One can get history terribly wrong, as did Karl Marx and Adolf Hitler alike. Marx tried to use history to support his economic theories; Hitler was simply evil, perverting  history to his racist agenda. Obama may have more admired GIs than Boomers; in view of the Boomer Presidents Dubya and Trump, that is understandable now.

I have good cause to distrust extreme narcissists, as they have burned me when I have ever had the questionable privilege of having to depend upon them. Donald Trump is so pathologically narcissistic that he is hard to tell from a sociopath.

Yes, I have contempt for Donald Trump. I also have contempt for the stuff that comes  out of my anus, too, but I can always flush that  into the septic tank. The most that I can do about Trump is to change the channel.

Quote:Trump started out with chief advisor Steve Bannon, who is an expert on
history and Generational Dynamics.  Unfortunately, he's gone now.  I
don't know how knowledgeable Trump's other advisors are about history.
My guess is that James Mattis and Rex Tillerson are a lot more
knowledgeable about history than a scientist like Ash Carter or a
total idiot like John Kerry.

I see a President who has a staff turnover resembling that of a fast-food restaurant. But at least with a fast-food restaurant one has a model for getting unskilled workers able to meet the demands of the job quickly or one can cast off bad workers quickly. American history has few good models for making the best of Donald Trump except to evade him or thwart him. Above a certain military rank, knowledge of history is a necessity.

I have seen plenty of evidence that John Kerry was not up to the job of Secretary of State.

Quote:Quite honestly, I don't understand how you can interminably keep up
the pretense that anything the comes out of Trump's mouth,
irrespective of what it is or what it's about, is automatically
apocalyptic, racist, white supremacist, war-mongering, misogynistic,
homophobic, and generally in Hillary's Basket of Deplorables.

I have no reason to trust him. I see him more as classist than racist, although he did a good job of exploiting lower-class contempt of ill-educated white people against the educated middle class. Anyone who could say that after the racists who inflamed tensions in Charlottesville that there are good people on both sides is a fool. On some issues there is no place for good people. There is no good side of bank robbery, pedophilia,  or racism of the type associated with Nazis.

Besides, good people do not have the reckless, exploitative sex lives of Bill Clinton or Donald Trump. Grabbing women by their crotches without consent is at the least sexual assault

With Donald Trump I see someone weak at self-reflection. I see him more likely to bumble his way into war (like Nicholas II) than to do a sneak attack after diplomatic bullying fails (like Hitler). The consequences, except perhaps for genocide by design (which differentiates Nicholas II from Hitler), are much the same.

It is inappropriate to expect a lower standard of moral conduct from those in the upper echelons of commercial, military, academic, or political leadership than among the masses. Greater authority implies greater responsibility for moral choices lest the system lose its credibility. 

Quote:By the way, living in your bubble, are you even the tiniest bit aware
about how there are daily revelations exploding and building a case
against Hillary, and now stretching to Obama?  Obama's administration
was the most corrupt in my lifetime -- IRS targeting of conservatives,
extortion from the financial crisis, lying daily about Obamacare,
sabotaging the election against Trump, and so forth.  Obama thought he
could get away with it forever, but now it's all pouring out.  Instead
of listening to MSNBC 24 hours a day, you really should allocate one
hour a day to Fox news, so you can see what's going on in the world
besides idiots wanting to impeach Trump.

Donald Trump has the hollowness and poor personnel choices of Warren Gamaliel Harding and the demand for self-destructive blind obedience of Richard Nixon -- and both worse. Far worse. Donald Trump is so bad that if we could have the ghost of Warren G. Harding back as President, we would have an improvement. Even without the "All for the Few, and survival is a privilege for the rest" economic ideology, Donald Trump is a horrible person. He is singularly unsuited for the Presidency as shown in a curriculum vitae in which he is little more than being a rent-collector and a reality-show figure. Sure, he is qualified to be President by the Constitutional standards -- but so is some native-born skid-row drunk with severe schizophrenia and a criminal record.

We are all in bubbles. Media basically tell most of us what we want to hear, which explains why some people refer to "Faux Noise" and "MSLSD" or call their stars "Sean Hammiity" or "Rachel Mad-Cow". Americans are largely lining up in mutually-exclusive camps based upon values. Some people want America to resemble a contemporary Scandinavian country in its practices, and some want to return to America's Gilded Age (if with modern technology).

But back to my opinion piece:

Quote:Let us remember that November 11, 2018 will be the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I, the second-most destructive war ever and the war that made possible the horrors of Bolshevism, Nazism, and sundry other novel forms of brutal tyranny that made the most destructive war in history and genocidal slaughters a near inevitability.

World War I was the worst possible war at the time, and a calamity whose horror nobody predicted at its start. It is hard to imagine a war that so universally scarred the surviving soldiers Nobody fully understands why it came to be, but the militarization of so many cultures surely contributed to the horror of the war. Monarchs and presidents were proud of their well-drilled infantry units and of their battleships, and of the rapid development of armament industries nd related big business (including steel and chemicals).

As demonstrated in the next war, World War I gave at best temporary and superficial solutions to the failings of the pre-war world. It weakened the best of men and empowered the worst. Donald Trump, who seems to have little studied history of any kind, attaches himself as much as possible to military pomp and regimentation -- just like the Emperors of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia, all of whose political systems disintegrated at or near the ends of the war. A militaristic culture is spoiling for a fight, and those spoiling for a fight usually get one. It is the same with kings in palaces as it is with angry drunks in seedy saloons.

The least appropriate treatment for the 100th anniversary of the end of what had been called the Great War and the War to End All Wars ("to end all" meaning a superlative in the day) is a display of military prowess. More apt would be contemplation of the stupidity of a militarized culture that easily drifts into pointless war over some affront. Prayer and fasting would be far more apt.

If you do not see the dangers inherent in a militarized culture, then you have a blindness to a basic reality in human nature. One can push people in power only so far before they snap, and generally we wisely keep our leaders from acting on impulse. If someone snaps in a bar and has nothing more than his bare fits, then the worst that might happen is that one drunk throws his fist into the jaw of another drunk, and the two fighters end up in the hospital, one with a broken hand and one with a broken jaw, both coming out of anesthesia and having no idea of what motivated them to do something so stupid as to get into a fight. With armed gangs like the Bloods and Crips, leaders with hair-trigger tempers might do gun-play that kills someone. If we are lucky the people killed are disposable losers to all but gulled loved ones. If we are not so lucky, then innocent bystanders get killed or maimed. With superpowers with capricious leaders who might start a war over territory of each other, the consequences are war, and the bigger are the war machines, "Close" counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and since 1945, nuclear weapons.

It may be my taste, but the appropriate expression of the centennial of the end of the First World War is a reflection upon the danger of war from leaders with hair-trigger tempers such as William II and Nicholas II. Let us never have another such war, for this time the weapons are far more dangerous and there are no safe havens. Even more -- wars can rend the fabric of human decency, and to the extent that the war does more to degrade the civil society that makes democratic institutions possible. It is fit and proper to honor the soldiers, but it is grossly unfit to use the centennial of the second-worst war ever as an excuse for a military display for a President who acts more like a despotic king than like any prior President.

Militarized cultures made World War I all the more likely, and more dangerous for more people. I see only one really-close analogue in my adult life, to wit the war between Iran and Iraq in which two pathological regimes armed to the teeth as expressions of national pride went after each other.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Feb-18 World View -- Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel's F-16 warplane shot down in aftermath of downing Iranian drone
  
• Turkish helicopter shot down in Afrin, days after Russian warplane downed in Idlib
  
• With defeat of ISIS, war escalates, and Syria becomes more fragmented and chaotic
  

****
**** Israel's F-16 warplane shot down in aftermath of downing Iranian drone
****


Russian warplane shot down in Idlib province last week by al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), using a portable surface-to-air missile. (AFP)

It was just a week ago, on February 3, that a Russian warplane was
shot down in Idlib province by al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
(HTS), using a portable surface-to-air missile. The pilot ejected,
and was killed on the ground.

An Israeli F-16 warplane was shot down on Saturday by massive
anti-aircraft fire fired by the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad and by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both pilots ejected and were
rescued on Israeli soil. One pilot was severely injured.

The series of incidents began when Israel detected what it assessed
was an Iranian drone crossing into Israel from Syria. The Iranian
drone was successfully intercepted by an Apache combat helicopter.
the drone was downed by the Apache and recovered intact.

The drone had been launched from an Iranian launch pad near Palmyra in
central Syria. Israel retaliated with an air strikes against the
launch pad, as well as against a dozen Syrian and Iranian targets.

Israel's warplanes were met with heavy anti-aircraft fire from both
Syria and Lebanon, suggesting that the drone attack might have been a
planned ambush, with retaliation by the Syrian regime and Hezbollah.
One Israeli F-16 warplane was downed by a Syrian anti-aircraft weapon,
most likely an SA-5 supplied by Iran.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said that Iran was only in Syria in
an "advisory" role:

<QUOTE>"The claim about the flight of an Iranian drone and
Iran’s involvement in the downing of a Zionist fighter jet is so
ridiculous that it does not merit a comment.

This is because the Islamic Republic of Iran has advisory presence
in Syria at the request of the country’s legitimate and lawful
government."<END QUOTE>

Iran's Brigadier General Hossein Salami was even more belligerent,
saying that Iran would create a "hell" for the Zionists, and that all
American military bases in the region are within range of Iranian
missile strikes.

Many analysts had hoped that the Iran nuclear deal would moderate
Iran's behavior. Instead, it appears that the infusion of huge
amounts of money by lifting sanctions has made Iran much more
aggressive in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Iran continues to
militarize its "Shia Crescent," and threaten Israel.

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said:

<QUOTE>"I've been warning for some time about the dangers of
Iran's military entrenchment in Syria. Iran seeks to us a Syrian
territory to attack Israel, for its professed goal of destroying
Israel. ...

Our policy is absolutely clear: Israel will defend
itself against any attack and any attempt to harm our sovereignty.
Iran made such an attempt today. It violated our sovereignty, it
infiltrated Israeli territory with an [unmanned] aircraft from
Syrian territory.

This is both our right and our duty and we will continue to do so
as much as necessary. Let no one make a mistake about
this."<END QUOTE>

Reuven Ben Shalom, a former Israeli fighter pilot, was even more
belligerent, saying that Israel's aggressive actions send a clear
message to Iran and Syria:

<QUOTE>"This demonstrates our capabilities, demonstrates our
resolve not to allow the breach of Israeli sovereignty. That means
we can do whatever we want to do, we can take out any component we
want, wherever we want. And I think it’s good that our enemies
learn and understand these capabilities."<END QUOTE>

Debka (Israel) and Jerusalem Post and Tasnim News (Tehran) and Tasnim News and VOA

Related Articles

• Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah heading for a military confrontation in Syria (26-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus (14-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Turkish helicopter shot down in Afrin, days after Russian warplane downed in Idlib
****

On January 20, Turkey began its invasion of northern Syria, ironically
named "Operation Olive Branch," to defeat the Kurdish People’s
Protection Units (YPG). The plan was a quick victory in the northern
city of Afrin, followed by an advance eastward toward Manbij, where it
was feared that they would clash with US forces.

Achieving victory in Afrin has been going slower than promised, and on
Saturday, YPG militias shot down a Turkish helicopter, resulting in
the deaths of up to 11 Turkish soldiers.

Estimates are that since Operation Olive Branch began, the YPG has
killed over 20 Turkish soldiers, and the Turks have killed over 150
Kurdish fight.

On Saturday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a speech,
saying:

<QUOTE>"A little while ago, one of our helicopters was
downed. Of course all these things will happen - we are in a war.
We will have losses, but we will also cause losses. Yesterday we
destroyed and annihilated a very large rocket depot. Of course
the YPG got mad about that. But of course we will make them pay
heavily for that. Maybe one of our helicopters is gone, but they
will pay for this. Not in kind, but so much more, because we are
determined, and we believe we are superior. We will succeed in
this as well."<END QUOTE>

It was just a week ago, on February 3, that a Russian warplane was
shot down in Idlib province by al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
(HTS), using a portable surface-to-air missile. The pilot ejected,
and was killed on the ground.

Russia and Syria have both been taking revenge this past week by
massive bombing of civilian neighborhoods in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib,
including continued use of chlorine gas. Estimates are that 230
civilians have been killed by Russia and Syria in the last week.
Hurriyet (Ankara) and Reuters and Globe and Mail (Canada)

Related Articles

• Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' (21-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Turkey announces major military operation in Syria's Idlib province (09-Oct-2017)
  
  
• In dramatic development, US warplanes smash fortified wall in Raqqa, Syria (05-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Turkey builds a northern Syria 'National Army' from Free Syrian Army militias (31-May-2017)
  

****
**** With defeat of ISIS, war escalates, and Syria becomes more fragmented and chaotic
****

The war in Syria has sharply escalated this week. Four countries have
lost a military aircraft in Syria in the last week. On Saturday,
three countries lost military aircraft on a single day, just days
after the same happened to a fourth country. So Iran lost a drone,
Israel lost a warplane, Turkey lost a helicopter, and Russia lost a
warplane.

There are at least 14 armies and militias operating in Syria now:
Syria, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, Free Syrian Army (FSA), Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF), People’s Protection Units (YPG), Saudi
Arabia, Iraq, Israel, United States, al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS), and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh).

Sometimes the alliances are clear. For example, Turkey and the FSA
are allied against the SDF and the YPG. Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are
allied against Israel. Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia are allied
against Sunni civilians. In other cases, the alliances are fuzzy,
such as the relationship between Turkey and the FSA.

As we've been saying for months, all of these forces (except ISIS)
have been united only in that they were all nominally fighting against
ISIS, albeit with a variety of hidden and conflicting objectives. Now
that ISIS has been defeated, all of these conflicting objectives have
been exposed, and all of these different armies and militias have no
one to shoot at but each other.

Each of these 14 armies and militias has a different objective. Some
of them want a piece of Syria. Other just want to keep someone else
from getting a piece of Syria. In the middle of everything, you have
the psychopathic war criminal Bashar al-Assad. These conflicting
objectives mean that there will be no peace in Syria for a long, long
time. The Drive

Related Articles

• US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clash with Syrian regime forces (09-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Armies and militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria increasingly turn on each other (15-Oct-2017)
  
  
• US shoots down Syrian warplane, as Iran launches missiles into Syria (19-Jun-2017)
  
  
• US and Iran headed for military confrontation in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria (09-Jun-2017)
  
  
• US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base (19-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Reuven Ben Shalom, Hossein Salami,
Iran, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hezbollah,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Eastern Ghouta, Hama, Idlib, barrel bombs,
chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous, Sarin gas,
People’s Protection Units, YPG, Afrin, Manbij

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Boomers can redeem themselves from the failures of the past 25 years by striking North Korea with nuclear weapons. If that occurs Trump will be regarded as a hero.

[pbrower2a]

(02-11-2018, 02:51 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Boomers can redeem themselves from the failures of the past 25 years by striking North Korea with nuclear weapons. If that occurs Trump will be regarded as a hero.

Hitler was considered a hero by most Germans until the casualty lists started bloating on the Russian Front.

We may be wiser to wait for the North Korean monstrosity to implode politically or do something that causes the Chinese to 'liberate' the country.

[Warren Dew]

Seems like Israel needs to use its AGM-88 missiles more effectively.

[Warren Dew]

(02-11-2018, 09:27 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(02-11-2018, 02:51 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Boomers can redeem themselves from the failures of the past 25 years by striking North Korea with nuclear weapons. If that occurs Trump will be regarded as a hero.

Hitler was considered a hero by most Germans until the casualty lists started bloating on the Russian Front.

We may be wiser to wait for the North Korean monstrosity to implode politically or do something that causes the Chinese to 'liberate' the country.

In the meantime, should we ignore any cities we lose to North Korean nukes?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean dictator's sister, charms the Olympics
  
• Kim Yo-jong returns to Pyongyang with fond memories and an invitation for Moon
  
• Moon Jae-in faces some difficult decisions
  

****
**** Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean dictator's sister, charms the Olympics
****


Kim Yo-jong and Moon Jae-in share an intimate moment as they watch a performance by North Korea’s Samjiyon art troupe at the National Theater of Korea in central Seoul on Sunday. (Yonhap)

History has been made this weekend, as the visit by North Korean
officials to the Winter Olympics in Seoul has produced a softening of
tensions between North and South Korea, and is succeeding in driving a
wedge between South Korea and its allies, the United States and Japan.
North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is truly a brilliant at
marketing.

And best of all was Kim Yo-jong, the dictator's sister. She not only
charmed president Moon Jae-in, she also charmed all of South Korea and
in fact the whole world.

That's what you would believe if you read the mainstream media
coverage of the Seoul Olympics.

US Vice President Mike Pence was described as "the loneliest figure"
in the audience. He is described as having "snubbed" Kim Yo-jong, who
was seated just a few feet away from him. Pence was truly the Grinch
Who Stole Christmas.

Pence posted a tweet:

<QUOTE>The US will not allow the propaganda charade by the
North Korean regime to go unchallenged on the world state. the
world can NOT turn a blind eye to the oppression & threats of the
Kim regime."<END QUOTE>

Kim Jong-un was reported as saying that Pence's behavior was
"shameful" and "snobbish."

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe apparently tried to bring things
back down to earth by saying, "Now is not the time to postpone
U.S.-South Korea military exercises. It is important to move forward
with the drills as planned." Abe was referring to the joint military
exercises that had been postponed because of North Korea's attendance
at the Olympics. The South Korean government told him in essence that
it was none of his business. Korea Herald
and Reuters

****
**** Kim Yo-jong returns to Pyongyang with fond memories and an invitation for Moon
****

Before leaving Seoul on Sunday, Kim Yo-jong invited South Korea's
president Moon Jae-in to visit her in Pyongyang, and also said that
she'd like to visit Seoul again:

<QUOTE>"Honestly, I never thought I would visit (the South)
so suddenly and believed much would be strange and different but I
saw many things that were similar or the same. Here's to hoping
that we could see the pleasant people (of the South) again in
Pyeongchang and bring closer the future where we are one
again."<END QUOTE>

I thought that this was a very interesting statement, because it
reminded me of the surprising outcome of a visit by Russia's
Boris Yeltsin to the United States in 1989.


Boris Yeltsin visits Randall's Supermarket in Texas on September 16, 1989 (Houston Chronicle)

Yeltsin was visiting the Johnson Space Center in Houston on September
16, 1989, when suddenly he asked to go shopping at a grocery store to
be chosen more or less at random. He ended up at Randall's
Supermarket in Clear Lake, and was astounded at the bewildering
variety of products available to American shoppers. He had been led
to believe that the grocery stores in America were even worse than the
ones in Soviet Russia, and he was shocked to learn the truth.

According to Yeltsin's autobiography, this visit changed his life,
and shattered his view of communism. Two years later he
left the Communist Party, and started making economic reforms. He
wrote in his autobiography:

<QUOTE>When I saw those shelves crammed with hundreds,
thousands of cans, cartons and goods of every possible sort, for
the first time I felt quite frankly sick with despair for the
Soviet people. That such a potentially super-rich country as ours
has been brought to a state of such poverty! It is terrible to
think of it."<END QUOTE>

So, when Kim Yo-jong says that she "saw many things that were similar
or the same," what was she thinking? Was she reflecting on the many
things that were dissimilar, and how much better off the South Korean
people are than the North Korean people?

It's an interesting speculation, but Kim Jong-un is no Yeltsen.
Nothing short of war is going to stop North Korea from developing its
arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.

Still, there are many questions: What is Kim Yo-jong thinking? Will
she try to convince her brother to end his nuclear weapons program?
And if she does try, will he have her killed, the way he's had other
family members killed? Inquiring minds want to know.

At any rate, Kim Yo-jong passed on to Moon an invitation from the
dictator to visit North Korea “at his earliest convenience." AP and Houston Chronicle (7-Apr-2014)

****
**** Moon Jae-in faces some difficult decisions
****

Kim Yo-jong is pretty, and Moon Jae-in is charming, and they make a
very attractive couple, and the media have been fawning over them, but
the core issues haven't changed.

Kim Jong-un has already said that he can reach the United States with
a nuclear weapon, and that he's safe from attack, though that's
believed to be an exaggeration. It's believed that the purpose of his
Olympics charm offensive was to buy at least two months' time to
continue development. And now by inviting Moon to visit him, he hopes
to buy some more time.

Now it's up to Moon to make the next move, and there are a number of
questions to be answered:

• Moon's presidential campaign was about closer relations with
  the North. Moon would like to accept the North's invitation to visit,
  but should he set preconditions?
  
  
• Should Moon demand as a precondition that a denuclearization
  discussion should be on the agenda for his visit North? Kim Jong-un
  has refused to discuss the nuclear issue with him in the past, and
  this demand may cause the North to walk away.
  
  
• Should Moon demand that the North be willing to discuss
  denuclearization with the Americans? Kim has refused to talk to the
  Americans.
  
  
• Should the annual joint US-South Korea military drills, which were
  postponed until the Olympics games were over, take place immediately
  after the end of the Olympics?
  
  
• What should Moon recommend with regard to economic sanctions on
  the North -- reduce them, increase them, or leave them the same?
  
  
• Should Moon and the US agree to go ahead with a "bloody nose"
  attack on North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile
  facilities?

The politics behind the "bloody nose" attack are very interesting.
I've heard one analyst after another say that such an attack is
"clearly and obviously impossible," because the North would
immediately retaliate with a massive artillery attack on Seoul.

But actually that doesn't make sense, as the logic points in the
opposite direction. Assuming that a way can be found to destroy North
Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile development facilities, the
North would just have to accept it. If the North retaliated and
attacked Seoul, then the next American attack would completely destroy
Kim Jong-un's government, and Kim himself would be killed.

American government officials have been extremely clear that they will
not permit North Korea to "have a deliverable atomic weapon that can
reach the United States reliably. It just cannot be," in the words of
John Kelly, echoing statements by Donald Trump, H.R. McMaster, Steve
Bannon, Lindsey Graham, and others.

These are all considerations that Moon will have to take into account,
as he decides what his next steps will be.

Rep. Choo Mi-ae, of Moon's left-wing Democratic party, welcomed the
North's proposal for a summit meeting:

<QUOTE>"If an inter-Korean summit is realized, it will be
recorded as the biggest achievement of the PyeongChang Olympics.
We have to work with greater responsibility as we make
preparations and respond carefully to the invitation.

Although there may be disagreements and concerns at home and
abroad, what's clear is that peace stems from dialogue and it's
impossible to oppose dialogue if we want peace."<END QUOTE>

However, Rep. Chang Je-won, right-wing opposition Liberty Korea Party
criticized Moon for not raising the denuclearization issue with Kim
Yo-jong during her visit:

<QUOTE>"We once again warn that a visit by the president to
North Korea, unless it is premised on denuclearization, would be
nothing more than a congratulatory delegation celebrating (the
North's) nuclear development and would amount to an
enemy-benefiting act."<END QUOTE>

Korea Herald and Reuters
and Yonhap News

Related Articles:

• North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration (18-Jan-2018)
  
  
• US officials plan for military strike on North Korea and war (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China's envoy to North Korea fails to end nuclear crisis (21-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Donald Trump in Seoul issues stern warning to North Korea -- and to China (09-Nov-2017)
  
  
• North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? (18-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong,
South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Seoul, Olympics, Mike Pence,
Choo Mi-ae, Chang Je-won, Japan, Shinzo Abe, bloody nose attack,
Russia, Boris Yeltsin, Johnson Space Center, Randall's Supermarket

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

John, regarding the 9 February Syrian attack that was defeated, you might be interested in the following, which claims that Russian engineers might have been among the targets of US strikes:

https://www.debka.com/us-strike-russians...g-targets/

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-12-2018, 02:54 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > John, regarding the 9 February Syrian attack that was defeated,
> you might be interested in the following, which claims that
> Russian engineers might have been among the targets of US strikes:

> https://www.debka.com/us-strike-russians...g-targets/

Yeah, I saw that, but even though I like Debka it's a shaky source and
I wasn't able to find any confirmation in mainstream media.

I've always thought that Putin's support of al-Assad was a disaster
for Russia. I was writing five years ago that North Caucasus
jihadists would go to Syria to fight al-Assad and Russia, and then
they would go back to Russia and use their training to attack Russian
targets.

Now that ISIS has been defeated in Raqqa, there have been reports that
thousands of ISIS fighters are returning to their home countries,
including Russia. The passenger plane that exploded in the sky near
Moscow yesterday is being investigated, and the cause hasn't yet been
determined, but right now it looks like terrorism, and the dots might
be connected back to Syria (though such a finding would be subject to
being covered up).

Russia now has a laughable marriage of convenience with Turkey, where
it's making deals to allow Turkey to kill "terrorists" in Afrin, and
Turkey won't oppose Russia and al-Assad from conducting massive
genocidal attacks on Turkmens in Idlib. It's truly sick. And if the
Debka story is true, then Putin the Great Peacemaker is clashing with
US forces on the Euphrates.

And oh, a related story is that Erdogan is threatening to clash with
US forces in Manbij. But none of that is important in America where
the idiots in the mainstream media are focusing on blaming Trump
because two of his employees' ex-wives are making accusations of
domestic violence. It's truly a sick world.

[John J. Xenakis]

I should mention that I have to be careful what I write about in these
stories.

Take a look at the comments following the Breitbart posting of my
story on al-Assad:

http://www.breitbart.com/national-securi...wn-people/

There are over 100 comments, almost all of them calling me a cretin
for "telling fake news" about al-Assad about whom there's supposedly
"no evidence" that the wonderful al-Assad has ever used chemical
weapons, and they also bash Breitbart for their stupidity in allowing
me to cross-post there. These comments are almost total lunacy, just
like the total lunacy of left-wing comments about Trump's proposed
patriotic parade.

So as I said, Debka is a shaky source, and I suspect that some of
their stories contain an element of the same total lunacy about Israel
that exists in America's left and right wings, so I tend to be
suspicious of Debka stories that aren't at least partially confirmed
elsewhere. When I write these World View articles every day, they're
packed full of facts that I derive typically from 15-30 media sources
from all ideological points of view from around the world, and they're
read by thousands of people, so if any of these idiot trolls on the
left or right criticize my article, I can usually quote sources and
hit them back pretty hard. In the case of Breitbart, that leaves them
with nothing else but to claim that every media source in the world is
lying, and the only one you can trust is some Russian troll blog.
It's incredible, and I become more contemptuous every day about what's
going on. As I've mentioned before, every day when I wake up I ask
myself two questions: Why am I still alive, and have I gone crazy yet?
I don't have answers to either question.

[Warren Dew]

Regarding Korea, a lot depends on whether Moon believes that reunification can occur without submitting to Kim as the dictator of a unified Korea. If he is fooled into believing that, he will believe that the unified Korea won't need the US any more, because it will have nuclear weapons, perhaps under his own control.

[pbrower2a]

(02-12-2018, 02:53 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Regarding Korea, a lot depends on whether Moon believes that reunification can occur without submitting to Kim as the dictator of a unified Korea.  If he is fooled into believing that, he will believe that the unified Korea won't need the US any more, because it will have nuclear weapons, perhaps under his own control.

A nuclear-free Korean peninsula is the shared position of both the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Korea. South Korea does not now allow the USA to have nuclear weapons in South Korea.

One way or the other, the horribly-named, and even worse, horrific Democratic People's Republic of Korea (which is grossly undemocratic, does not serve the interests of the people of any part of Korea, and is in fact an absolute monarchy) is doomed. Either it will be incorporated into a unified republic of Korea as its political institutions democratize to fit those of the Republic of Korea (think of the German Democratic Republic, which actually became a democracy before it was incorporated into the Federal Republic) or to become a puppet state of the People's Republic of China.

It would take only one big slip-up by Emperor Kim Jong-Un, like firing a missile over Chinese territory even if its ultimate destination is the USA (and the Great Circle route for almost all American destinations from North Korea is over Chinese territory).

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Feb-18 World View -- Thousands of DR Congo refugees pour into Uganda to escape tribal violence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of DR Congo refugees pour into Uganda to escape tribal violence
  
• Massive 1998-2003 war between Hema and Lendu tribes has continued violence today
  

****
**** Thousands of DR Congo refugees pour into Uganda to escape tribal violence
****


Twenty year old Mary Maurita and her newborn baby in a Uganda refugee camp

Tens of thousands of refugees in eastern Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC) have been fleeing tribal violence.

More than 14,000 refugees, the large majority women and children, have
fled the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Uganda since December
18th 2017, because of increased tribal violence in eastern DRC.
This is a big upsurge in refugees, reflecting a sharp
increase in tribal and ethnic violence throughout eastern DRC.

Refugees have reported that the current situation in DRC includes
armed groups burning down and pillaging villages, torching houses,
shutting down schools, hospitals and churches, forcefully recruiting
young men, abducting and kidnapping innocent citizens, raping women
and girls. Some refugees were forced to pay armed groups to cross the
border into Uganda to escape the violence.

Tribal conflicts are common in DRC. Since 1960, there have been more
than 17 civil wars recorded, with four million deaths. For years,
refugees from DRC have come to Uganda, particularly since August 2007,
when government forces attacked civilians in North Kivu province in
order to obtain mineral resources, including gold. At the end of
2017, there were 242,406 registered refugees in Uganda from DRC, and
the number is increasing sharply because of increased tribal violence
in DRC. In January alone, 13,550 additional refugees have arrived.

Because of the increased violence in DRC, Uganda is making plans to
host hundreds of thousands more refugees. Uganda has a population of
nearly 1,4 million refugees, of whom 1 million are from South Sudan
and nearly 250,000 are from DRC. ReliefWeb and NTV (Uganda) and The Nation (Kenya)

****
**** Massive 1998-2003 war between Hema and Lendu tribes has continued violence today
****

After the 1994 Rwanda genocide, the violence spread to DR Congo as
Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi intervened, and took sides in the tribal
and government violence in eastern DRC, providing troops, training,
arms, and general aid to the warring sides.

The Hema and the Lendu ethnic groups of the DR Congo are both
pastoralist tribes, and they have historically had wars in competition
for land for their cattle. After a new Hema-Lendu war started in
1998, Ugandan militias sided with the Hema against the Lendu. The
result was a massive war in the Ituri district of northeastern Congo
between August 1998 and July 2003, killing some 3.3 million people,
and displacing hundreds of thousands more. The point of the war was
mainly to gain control over mineral rights in the tribal land.
Although the war was officially settled in 2003, the violence between
Hema and Lendu, as well as between other tribal groups, continues to
this day.

The European Union has announced that it will offer 100,000 euros in
humanitarian aid for Congolese refugees in Uganda. According to an EU
official:

<QUOTE>"Renewed fighting and atrocities in DRC are driving
thousands of Congolese from their homes. After the long journey,
many of them arrive in the refugee settlement weakened and
destitute. EU funding is being released to increase the safe water
supply and improve sanitation, hygiene and health services. It is
crucial that we provide dignified living conditions and prevent
disease outbreaks."<END QUOTE>

According to one commenter: "This is good news for French speaking
Europe: these refugees in Uganda won't try going to Europe, but will
just flock more & more to Uganda where the money is!"

Northeastern Congo is cursed with vast riches in the form of mineral
wealth, in a region with many tribes and ethnic groups. The level of
violence increased sharply in mid-December, resulting in a massive new
surge of refugees crossing the border, which Uganda is now faced with
hosting in refugee camps. Kat Nickerson (June 2012) and Defence Web (South Africa) and ACT Alliance and Observer (Uganda)

Related Articles

• United Nations stunned as peacekeepers are massacred in DR Congo (09-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Democratic Republic of Congo issues farcical call for elections in December 2018 (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila brings the art of power and corruption to new heights (24-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Massive government atrocities in DR Congo's Kasai threaten regional stability (21-Jun-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Ituri, Hema, Lendu

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

Al Jazeera just broadcast a report about last week's clash between
US-backed forces and Syrian allies in Deir az-Zour. According to the
report, the catastrophic deaths of the 200 pro-Syrian soldiers is a
growing scandal in Russia, because it's turning out that the 200
soldiers were not Syrian, but were Russian mercenaries. Russia
normally hides its use of mercenaries, but this is a growing scandal
in Russian social media, and the public is demanding to know how much
the Russian armed forced are using mercenaries. This could force the
Kremlin to admit that it's been using mercenaries in Ukraine, Crimea,
and elsewhere, to save money and preserve deniability.

I just checked, and Debka is reporting the same story.

https://www.debka.com/200-russian-advise...ces-syria/

[Warren Dew]

(02-13-2018, 02:58 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Al Jazeera just broadcast a report about last week's clash between
US-backed forces and Syrian allies in Deir az-Zour.  According to the
report, the catastrophic deaths of the 200 pro-Syrian soldiers is a
growing scandal in Russia, because it's turning out that the 200
soldiers were not Syrian, but were Russian mercenaries.  Russia
normally hides its use of mercenaries, but this is a growing scandal
in Russian social media, and the public is demanding to know how much
the Russian armed forced are using mercenaries.  This could force the
Kremlin to admit that it's been using mercenaries in Ukraine, Crimea,
and elsewhere, to save money and preserve deniability.

I just checked, and Debka is reporting the same story.

https://www.debka.com/200-russian-advise...ces-syria/

If Putin is smart, he will use the outrage to "prohibit" Russian "mercenaries".  He can save face and get out of Syria at the same time.

If he's not smart, I supposed the Russian public might end up calling for war with the US, putting Putin in a really tough spot.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Feb-18 World View -- Colombia and Brazil close borders with Venezuela amid talk of possible military intervention

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Parents send kids to orphanages as Venezuela's oil production collapse
  
• Colombia and Brazil close borders to refugees from Venezuela
  
• Venezuela fears a military 'invasion' by Colombia and U.S.
  

****
**** Parents send kids to orphanages as Venezuela's oil production collapse
****


Venezuelans loot a food warehouse in December

Venezuela's oil output in January fell to its lowest level in nearly
30 years, with production falling 20% from a year ago. Although
Venezuela is the wealthiest country in the world in terms of oil
reserves, the oil company PDVSA has been nationalized, and the
Socialist president Nicolás Maduro has turned it over to the
dictator's Socialist cronies, who are so corrupt and incompetent they
couldn't operate a bicycle, let alone an oil company. The result
is that oil production in the Socialist country has been falling
steadily.

Since oil is pretty much Venezuela's only export that it can use to
earn foreign currency (dollars), Venezuela can no longer import food
or medicines, which is why people are starving to death and babies are
dying in hospitals.

The poverty and hunger rate in the Socialist country have become so
disastrous that parents are unable to find food to feed their
children. Store shelves are empty of food, medicine, diapers and baby
formula.

The International Monetary Fund forecast that the hyperinflation in
Venezuela will hit 13,000% in 2018, meaning that even if food were
available, it would be unaffordable. Human Rights Watch and other
rights groups have accused Venezuela's government of beating and
torturing thousands of people protesting about the economy.

Incredibly, Venezuela's Socialist government even refuses to accept
offers of food and medicine from its neighbors and aid agencies,
including the Catholic Church, because to do so would requiring
admitting that the Socialist economy was in crisis.

In desperation, some parents are placing their children in orphanages,
just so that they can be fed. According to Angélica Pérez, a
32-year-old mother of three, "You don’t know what it’s like to see
your children go hungry. You have no idea. I feel like I’m
responsible, like I’ve failed them. But I’ve tried everything. There
is no work, and they just keep getting thinner. Tell me! What am I
supposed to do?"

Other parents are simply leaving their children in the streets in the
hope that child protective services will find them and find a home for
them. CNN and Miami Herald and Washington Post

****
**** Colombia and Brazil close borders to refugees from Venezuela
****

Colombia and Brazil on Tuesday announced a series of measures to
control border crossings from Venezuela, as the Socialist economy
continues to deteriorate.

With people unable to find jobs or food in Venezuela, waves of
refugees have been pouring across the border into Colombia, and to a
lesser extent into northwest Brazil.

Venezuela's Socialist economy began to crumble in 2013 with the
collapse in global oil prices. Since then, an estimated 600,000
Venezuelans have fled across the border into Colombia. About 100,000
crossed the border in just the last two months of 2017. About 60,000
Venezuelans have crossed the border into Brazil.

Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos on Tuesday announced that
strict immigration controls would be implemented, with 2,120 Colombian
soldiers deployed to the 1,378 mile long border to enforce them.
In a speech, Santos referred to the time when Venezuelans
were kind to Colombians fleeing across the border into Venezuela
during the civil war of the 1990s and early 2000s. Santos
said:

<QUOTE>"There will be more control and more security at
borders.

Venezuela was very generous to Colombia when Colombians went in
search of a better life [during the height of its civil war in the
1990s and early 2000s]. We should also be generous to Venezuela.

I want to repeat to President Maduro — this is the result of your
policies, it is not the fault of Colombians and it’s the result of
your refusal to receive humanitarian aid which has been offered in
every way, not just from Colombia but from the international
community."<END QUOTE>

Brazil’s defense minister, Raul Jungmann, said that Brazil would
bolster security along the border and relocate the migrants. "This is
a humanitarian drama. The Venezuelans are being expelled from their
country by hunger and the lack of jobs and medicine. We are here to
bring help and to strengthen the border." Costa Roca News and Petroleum World
and Miami Herald and Brookings

****
**** Venezuela fears a military 'invasion' by Colombia and U.S.
****

Last weekend, American Admiral Kurt Tidd, head of U.S. Southern
Command, visited with Colombia's vice president Oscar Naranjo in the
coastal city of Tumaco, nominally to discuss the flow of drugs from
Colombia's Pacific coast.

Tidd's visit to Colombia has triggered suspicions in Venezuela of a
possible invasion by Colombia, backed by the United States.
Venezuela's chief prosecutor said:

<QUOTE>"In Colombia, they are planning to revive eras that
had ended in human history, like military bombing, a military
invasion or the occupation, through blood and gunfire, of a
peaceful country like Venezuela. We will not allow
it."<END QUOTE>

However, the commander of Colombia's armed forces replied, "We have so
many problems in our own country, and that’s what we are solely
dedicated to and focused on. We’re only interested in the problems of
the Colombian people."

Nonetheless, with Venezuela's economy deteriorating rapidly and the
flow of refugees surging, there is growing fear that Venezuela will
destabilize the entire region, and that military action must be taken.

Vanessa Neumann of the Foreign Policy Research Institute was
interviewed on Fox Business News, and said that Venezuela is
presenting a major security threat to Colombia, because locals are
getting into fights with the refugees, and there are terrorists mixing
in with the refugees coming across the border.

Neumann gave the following assessment (my transcription, slightly
edited):

<QUOTE>"[Colombia's] military is sending armored personnel
carriers with 50 caliber guns on top to stop the flow [of refugees
from Venezuela]. It's gotten so bad that the locals are beating
up the homeless Venezuelan refugees because there's just too many
of them, even though they really consider themselves as brothers.

The other thing is Venezuelans have now joined some of the
terrorist groups, because they've given them food, and the uniform
and the job. They have launched 11 terrorist attacks in Colombia.
The Colombians won't take this sitting down. They will go and
cross the border into Venezuela, and then they'll have military
assistance from the United States. ...

That's what I see happening, as well as more violence within
Venezuela, because of the food. People are now just killing each
other for food.

And in the border towns when they do escape I see them, selling
gasoline, selling their own hair, selling their bodies, giving
away their children. I saw it first-hand last week, and this week
it's much worse. This won't last much longer.

And now some of the Venezuelans are saying, please -- they've
never really advocated for American intervention before, but now
'We're so hungry, this is so bad, please come help
us.'"<END QUOTE>

Maritime Herald and Miami Herald and Russia Today

Related articles:

• Venezuela threatens to close borders with Colombia and Dutch territories (10-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Socialist Venezuela may or may not have declared bankruptcy on Thursday (04-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Russia considers taking on a huge financial burden - Venezuela (05-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard (06-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil,
Nicolás Maduro, Angélica Pérez, Juan Manuel Santos, Oscar Naranjo,
Raul Jungmann, Kurt Tidd, Vanessa Neumann

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Ragnarök_62]

(02-13-2018, 08:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(02-13-2018, 02:58 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Al Jazeera just broadcast a report about last week's clash between
US-backed forces and Syrian allies in Deir az-Zour.  According to the
report, the catastrophic deaths of the 200 pro-Syrian soldiers is a
growing scandal in Russia, because it's turning out that the 200
soldiers were not Syrian, but were Russian mercenaries.  Russia
normally hides its use of mercenaries, but this is a growing scandal
in Russian social media, and the public is demanding to know how much
the Russian armed forced are using mercenaries.  This could force the
Kremlin to admit that it's been using mercenaries in Ukraine, Crimea,
and elsewhere, to save money and preserve deniability.

I just checked, and Debka is reporting the same story.

https://www.debka.com/200-russian-advise...ces-syria/

If Putin is smart, he will use the outrage to "prohibit" Russian "mercenaries".  He can save face and get out of Syria at the same time.

If he's not smart, I supposed the Russian public might end up calling for war with the US, putting Putin in a really tough spot.

No. The US...  or uhhh "coalition" should be the ones to leave. This war of choice isn't even authorized.

http://amp.nationalreview.com/article/45...-necessary

The Russians just have their own version of Blackwater is all.  After all, they learned from the best!

And besides, Turkey, a NATO member does not like the Kurds.  So , now who do we betray? Turkey or the Kurds.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Feb-18 World View -- Netherlands expels Eritrean diplomat over coercive 'diaspora tax' collections

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Netherlands expels Eritrean diplomat over coercive 'diaspora tax' collections
  
• Eritrea's Patriarch Abune Antonios has not been seen in months
  

****
**** Netherlands expels Eritrean diplomat over coercive 'diaspora tax' collections
****


Graphic artist depiction of torture in Eritrea, based on interviews with Eritrean torture survivors (UN-OHCHR)

The Netherlands has expelled Tekeste Ghebremedhin Zemuy, Eritrea's top
diplomat, and declared him persona non grata, because the
Eritrean embassy uses coercive methods to collect a "diaspora tax"
from Eritreans.

Eritrea is considered is one of the most repressive governments in the
world according to Freedom House. Thousands of people are jailed
without charge, where torture is common. People are required to work
for years in enforced government service, where the average monthly
salary is $12.

Even migrants who escape to Europe to earn money are not free of the
long reach of the Eritrean government, as they are subject to the
"diaspora tax" of 2% of everything they earn.

The diaspora tax has been the subject of controversy, because its
application is arbitrary, and is used as a means of control over the
diaspora. An Eritrean who goes to the embassy because he needs
something from the state will be told that even a simple service --
sending a parcel or money home -- requires a charge of 2% of his
entire income for all the years he's been in the country. In
addition, Eritreans are required to sign a so-called "regret form"
admitting to crimes that may or may not have been committed, and
according to reports is not given a copy of the form he signed.

Refusal to pay the tax or to sign the "regret form" has resulted in
refusal of all services. It has also resulted in refusing food
vouchers for family members back home, limiting them from accessing
remittances, besides social exclusion and vilification.

In December 2011, UN Security Council resolution 2023 called on
Eritrea to "cease using extortion, threats of violence, fraud and
other illicit means to collect taxes outside of Eritrea from its
nationals or other individuals of Eritrean descent."

The same resolution accused Eritrea of using the tax to destabilize
the Horn of Africa, saying some of the revenues were funding armed
opposition groups in the region, including the Somalia's terrorist
militant group al-Shabaab.

In June 2016, a UNHRC commission of inquiry report on human rights
conditions in Eritrea found that the government continued to enforce
indefinite military service and was responsible for arbitrary
detention, torture, rape, murder, persecution, imprisonment in
violation of international law, and enforced disappearances. The
report said the systematic nature of these actions suggested that
crimes against humanity had been committed.

A European Union organization, the Europe External Policy Advisors
(EEPA), did extensive research in Eritrea's diaspora tax in seven
European countries. The report, published in September of last year,
said:

<QUOTE>"The 2% Tax is collected as a critical part of a
system of surveillance, with specific references to coercion in
view of mental and social pressure, extortion, intimidation, fraud
and/or blackmail. The specific organization and modalities relate
specifically to the diaspora, but also involves family members by
association."<END QUOTE>

Although these investigations have been going on for years, there was
a precipitating event that finally caused the Netherlands to take some
explicit action, on behalf of the 20,000 Eritrean nationals living in
the Netherlands. A recording was made by Dutch radio program Argos,
an asylum seeker is being told by the head of the Eritrean embassy
that he has to sign a so-called ‘regret form’ in which he admits his
guilt and that he has to pay 2% tax – over the past 4/5 years – before
he can avail of consular service from the diplomatic mission.

This recording infuriated the Dutch parliament. Parliamentarian
Sjoerd Sjoerdsma said:

<QUOTE>"Eritreans flee Eritrea solely due to the repression
by the regime. Then they are being confronted with the fact that
the Eritrean embassy in the Netherlands makes them pay diaspora
tax, often under force and sometimes even through extortion. The
parliament has raised its voice on this issue multiple times, but
nothing changes about this situation, unfortunately."<END QUOTE>

Protesters in Amsterdam and Brussels were demanding that the Eritrean
embassy be closed. This was rejected, but Dutch Foreign Minister
Halbe Zijlstra expelled Eritrea's envoy, saying in a letter to
parliament, "In light of the continuous intimidation and force used in
the collection of diaspora tax and its resulting social and political
unrest, the cabinet is forced to give the Eritrean government a
powerful signal." Guardian (London, 9-Jun-2015) and Europe External Policy Advisors (EEPA)
and In Depth News and Freedom House and United Nations - OHCHR and Tesfa News (Eritrea)

****
**** Eritrea's Patriarch Abune Antonios has not been seen in months
****

An article that I wrote last year ( "19-Jul-17 World View -- Eritrean government laughably uses Christian Patriarch as show prop"
) described how Eritrean
Orthodox Patriarch Abune Antonios, who had not been seen for ten years
after being arrested in 2007 without charge and imprisoned in an
unknown location, was trotted out to participate in a mass on July 16.

Worshippers were thrilled to see him, because he hadn't been seen in
public for ten years, but the whole thing was a farce because the
government forbade him from saying a word at the mass, and after the
mass they bundled him back to prison at a new unknown location.

It had been hoped that after this appearance, Antonios would be
permitted to walk free, but he hasn't been seen in public since then.
On September 11, he should have delivered blessing on that day, which
is marked by the Eritrean Orthodox Church as the start of the year
according to the Julian calendar.

The patriarch is among over 10,000 prisoners of conscience in Eritrea,
several hundred of whom are Christians. A surge in repression since
May of last year, when Eritrean police were going from house to house,
demanding to know the occupants' religious beliefs, and arresting them
if they give the wrong answer. It's believed that hundreds of
Orthodox Christians were arrested. Independent Catholic News (16-Sep-2017)

Related Articles

• Eritrean government laughably uses Christian Patriarch as show prop (19-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Afghan and Eritrean migrants clash at site of 'Jungle' in Calais France (24-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Heavy fighting along Eritrea-Ethiopia border raises fears of war (14-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency (10-Oct-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Eritrea, Netherlands, Tekeste Ghebremedhin Zemuy,
diaspora tax, regret form, Somalia, al-Shabaab, Ethiopia,
Sjoerd Sjoerdsma, Halbe Zijlstra,
Patriarch Abune Antonios, Eritrean Orthodox Church

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

The Dutch are right to expel that corrupt diplomat. Good for them!

In really-bad systems, corruption becomes the way to get things done.