Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Apr-18 World View -- Ukraine seizes Russian ship in Sea of Azov in retaliation for Kerch Strait blockade

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia builds bridge over Kerch Strait to Crimea, blocking commercial traffic to Ukraine
  
• Ukraine threatens seizure of ships in Sea of Azov travelling to and from Crimea
  

****
**** Russia builds bridge over Kerch Strait to Crimea, blocking commercial traffic to Ukraine
****


The Kerch Strait is in the lower right corner, as the tiny strait that separates Crimea and Russia at their closest points, and also separates the Sea of Azov in the north from the Black Sea in the south.

Ever since Russia invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea
Peninsula in 2014, Russia has had the problem of shipping goods
between Russia and Crimea.

Russia has taken control of Luhansk and Donetsk in far eastern
Ukraine, as well as Crimea itself, but the region along southern
Ukraine through the Mariupol and Bardyansk seaports is still under
control of Ukraine's government in Kiev.

For a while, the international community was wondering whether the
Russian invaders would continue their invasion through those seaports,
in order to connect a land route from Russia to Crimea, and giving
them complete control of the Sea of Azov. For whatever reason,
possibly because Russia's president Vladimir Putin feared that such a
drastic move might provoke military action from the European Union, no
such invasion occurred.

Apparently the Russians considered several possible solutions,
with the obvious choices being a tunnel under or a bridge
over the Kerch Strait. The Kerch Strait is shown in the above
map in the lower right corner, as the tiny strait that separates
Crimea and Russia at their closest points, and also separates
the Sea of Azov in the north from the Black Sea in the south.

In May 2015, Russia began constructing an 11.8 mile bridge across the
Kerch Strait, said to be the longest bridge in Europe once it's
completed. The project will cost an enormous $5 billion, and there
are concerns that the strait is not sufficiently geologically stable
enough to support the bridge safely. Nonetheless, construction has
gone ahead, and the plan is for the bridge to be open to car traffic
this year, and open to railroad traffic in 2019.

The construction of the bridge has already had a severe effect on
Ukraine's economy. Russia has several times closed the Kerch Strait
to maritime traffic, trapping commercial vessels docked in Mariupol
and Berdyansk seaports. During 2017, freight traffic was reduced 43%
and transshipments shrank by 30%, totally $54 million in 2017. The
losses are expected to be significantly higher in 2018. Jamestown (22-Feb) and Russia Today (3-Mar) and Guardian (London, 31-Aug-2017) and Völkerrechtsblog (10-Jan)

****
**** Ukraine threatens seizure of ships in Sea of Azov travelling to and from Crimea
****


The bridge over Kerch Strait (Russia Today)

On March 26, Ukraine's border service in the Sea of Azov seized the
fishing vessel Nord, on charges of violating Ukraine's territorial
waters. The Russians claim the ship was in international waters. The
Ukrainians claim it illegally entered Ukrainian waters when it docked
in Crimea without Ukrainian permission.

On Wednesday, April 4, Ukraine's Border Service spokesman Oleg
Slobodyan commented on the detention of Russia's Nord vessel, and said
that Ukraine will detain all the ships travelling to and out of Crimea
without Kiev’s consent, Slobodyan said:

<QUOTE>"Ukraine’s position is unequivocal, it considers
Crimea to be an occupied part of its territory so law enforcement
agencies will promptly respond to violations committed by those
travelling in and out of Crimea."<END QUOTE>

So the situation is this:

• Russia is building the bridge over the Kerch Strait, and is
  using it to strangle commerce into Ukraine's seaports of Mariupol and
  Berdyansk, resulting in substantial economic damage to Ukraine.
  
  
• The issue of the seizure of the Nord fishing vessel has not been
  resolved, although some late reports indicate that the crew have been
  released from jail.
  
  
• Ukraine does not recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,
  and still considers Crimea to be part of Ukraine, and this week has
  retaliated against Russia, announcing a new policy in the Sea of Azov
  where Russian ships docking in Crimea will be seized.

There is potentially a major confrontation brewing here, especially if
Ukraine goes through with its new threat of seizing all ships docking
in Crimea. So far, this confrontation has been going on relatively
quietly, but it could change into a full-blown crisis at any time.
Unian (Ukraine) and Sputnik (Russia) and Tass (Russia) and EurAsia Daily (Russia)

Related Articles

• Vladimir Putin brags about how he lied about Russia's invasion of Crimea (10-Mar-2015)
  
  
• Russia massing tanks and troops in Ukraine on northern border of Crimea (10-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Putin gives angry, nationalistic speech annexing Crimea to Russia (19-Mar-2014)
  
  
• Ukraine suspends all commercial trade with occupied Crimea (24-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Vladimir Putin brags about how he lied about Russia's invasion of Crimea (10-Mar-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea,
Luhansk, Donetsk, Mariupol, Bardyansk,
Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, Black Sea,
Nord fishing vessel, Oleg Slobodyan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Mikebert]

Question for John X. Back in 2003-4 you forecast a Dow of 4000 or less by the end of 2004. I argued that the market likely had already bottomed in 2002 at 7286 on the Dow and was buyable (https://safehaven.com/article/84/how-low...ave-to-say). The concept on which your prediction was based as historical mean-reversion to a single digit P/E according to the Shiller method (now called CAPE)

Here is a chart of CAPE values ( http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ ).   CAPE got to 15 on the 2008 financial crisis, and is now 31. In our discussions, I said you were right that CAPE would return to single digit values, but it would be around 2020.  I am now where you were in 2003-2004 making a ridiculously bearish forecast that the Dow is going to go to 8000 or so.

Do you still follow the market, or have you given up?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Apr-18 World View -- Gaza Palestinians burn tires to hide protests from Israel's army

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Gaza Palestinians burn tires to hide protests from Israel's army
  
• Hamas and Fatah/PLO criticized for contradictory strategies
  

****
**** Gaza Palestinians burn tires to hide protests from Israel's army
****


A Gaza protester wears a tire on his head with an onion (to protect himself from tear gas) dangling from it (al-Jazeera)

In the Muslim world, protests usually occur on Fridays, when
worshippers pour out of mosques after Friday prayers.

On Friday, March 30, Land Day protests in Gaza
led to numerous violent clashes with Israel's
army, when Gaza protesters threatened to break through the border
fence with Israel. The first used teargas to stop the protesters,
then live gunfire. 16 Palestinians were killed, and 1,400 wounded.

On Friday, April 6, the number of protests appeared to be considerably
reduced, although the protesters used new tactics. Protesters burned
tires creating massive conflagrations at five different points along
the border.

The purpose of burning the tires was to create black, thick smoke that
would make it impossible for Israel's army to see where the protesters
were attempting to break through the border fence. The army used
water cannons to put out the fires, and giant fans to disperse smoke.
Live gunfire was also used to stop the protesters, with the result
that seven Palestinians were shot dead and over 200 more were wounded.
The only good news about this situation is that these numbers were
sharply lower than last week.

Although Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza, is encouraging
protests on a continuing basis, the protests are all relatively minor
except for the final one: The major event will occur on May 15, Naqba
Day (Catastrophe Day), commemorating the creation of Israel in 1948.
YNet News (Israel) and Reuters and Al Jazeera

****
**** Hamas and Fatah/PLO criticized for contradictory strategies
****

Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza, has come under increasing
criticism for the policies it's pursuing in Gaza. Even Arab analysts
on television have criticized Hamas for having no apparent strategy at
all except to encourage protesters, including women and children, to
attempt to break through the border wall and risk getting shot and
killed, with no advantage to them, to the Palestinians or to Hamas for
the bloodshed.

The Hamas government in Gaza has an entirely different strategy than
the Palestinian Authority (PA) - Fatah - Palestinian Liberation
Organization (PLO) government in the West Bank, led by Mahmoud Abbas.

Hamas's strategy is the elimination of Israel, and so the Gaza
protests are being pursued with the intention of leading to an armed
conflict that Israel would lose. By contrast, Abbas's strategy is
full recognition of the state of Palestine existing side-by-side with
Israel, and is pursuing peaceful protests in order to gain
international support for Palestine.

The problem for the Palestinians is that they can't make any progress
at all unless Hamas and Fatah have a joint strategy. Negotiations for
a Hamas-Fatah unity government that began after the 67 day Israel-Gaza
war in 2014 have failed completely, largely because Hamas and Fatah
have completely different intentions about destroying Israel versus
living with Israel.

The 27th conference of the Arab Parliament Federation met on Friday in
Jeddah and stated the usual policies -- support for an independent
state of Palestine with its capital in Jerusalem, and condemnation of
Israeli attacks on Palestinian people and their land, sanctuaries and
properties. They also demanded that the international community put
pressure on Israel to stops its crimes in Palestine.

But all of that is completely meaningless, because those policies are
subordinate to the major policy: unifying the Arab position toward
major issues — the Palestinian cause and combating terror.

And there is no unity on the Arab position. What's the "Palestinian
cause," when the Palestinians don't even know what it means. What
does "combating terror" mean when Hamas is internationally considered
to be a terror organization, calling for the destruction of Israel.

And then of course there's the issue of Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian
Authority president. Abbas is 82 years old, was born in 1935, and
lived through World War II and the bloody wars between Jews and Arabs
that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of
the state of Israel. Having lived though that horrific war, Abbas has
been a major force in maintaining a semblance of peace between the
Palestinians and Israelis.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the reason that Abbas
and Fatah are far more moderate than Hamas is because Abbas lived
through the horrors if the Arab-Jewish war of 1948, and does not want
to see it happen again. Younger leaders, in both Gaza and the West
Bank, would have no such inhibitions. I believe that Abbas himself
understands this, and that's why he hasn't stepped down even though
he's been in declining health. But his death or retirement would
bring new, younger leadership into power, and that could well mean a
new, massive, bloody war between Jews and Arabs.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast,
Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. Al Monitor (13-Mar) and Arab News and
AFP and i24 News (Israel)

Related Articles:

• Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (01-May-2003)
  
• Gaza Palestinian 'Land Day' demonstrations lead to violence with Israel's army (01-Apr-2018)
  
  
• US embassy to Jerusalem will commemorate Israel's founding -- Palestinian 'Naqba Day' (24-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel (12-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Naqba, Catastrophe,
West Bank, Palestinian Authority, PA, - Fatah,
Palestinian Liberation Organization, PLO, Mahmoud Abbas,
Arab Parliament Federation

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-06-2018, 02:22 PM)Mikebert Wrote: > Question for John X. Back in 2003-4 you forecast a Dow of 4000 or
> less by the end of 2004. I argued that the market likely had
> already bottomed in 2002 at 7286 on the Dow and was buyable
> (https://safehaven.com/article/84/how-low...ave-to-say). The
> concept on which your prediction was based as historical
> mean-reversion to a single digit P/E according to the Shiller
> method (now called CAPE)

> Here is a chart of CAPE values ( http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
> ). CAPE got to 15 on the 2008 financial crisis, and is now 31. In
> our discussions, I said you were right that CAPE would return to
> single digit values, but it would be around 2020. I am now where
> you were in 2003-2004 making a ridiculously bearish forecast that
> the Dow is going to go to 8000 or so.

> Do you still follow the market, or have you given up?

Well, in 2004 you said that I've set things up so that I could never
be wrong, since if a financial crisis didn't occur, then I could
always say that it was still coming. I responded that as long as
public debt keeps increasingly exponentially, then the financial
crisis was coming, but if public debt starts to fall to normal levels,
then you could definitely say that I'm wrong when that happens. I
added that such reductions in public debt could never happen.

The Generational Dynamics methodology produces analyses and trend
predictions that have been 100% correct, but the problem is that the
timing of the endpoint of the trend cannot be predicted. The analogy
I sometimes use is the phrase "the straw that breaks the camel's
back." If you keep piling straw onto the camel's back, then you can
predict, with 100% accuracy, that there will be a straw that breaks
the camel's back, though you can't predict which straw, or when it
will occur.

But the generational predictions are more complex than simply saying
"if you keep piling straw, the camel's back will break." The
generational prediction also says: "You will keep piling straw on the
camel's back." This is a very strong prediction, because it says that
the trend will continue, and that the predicted endpoint (breaking the
camel's back) will be reached with 100% certainty, because you can't
do anything to stop it. To emphasize this, the prediction is that
you'll keep piling straw on the camel's back until you break the
camel's back. In a generational sense, you have no choice. You
cannot stop piling on straw. Therefore you will break the camel's
back with certainty.

So my 2004 prediction was not just that a global financial crisis
would occur, and that P/E ratios would fall to single digits. It was
also that the trends leading to those endpoints would continue,
even if I couldn't predict when the endpoints would occur.

It's true that I expected those endpoints to be reached in the 2007-8
timeframe, but I watched in utter astonishment as the Fed and other
central banks flooded the world's financial system with tens of
trillions of dollars in printed money. And then hedge funds have
leveraged that money into hundreds of trillions or even quadrillions
of dollars of money with nothing to back it. That isn't "public
debt" in the sense that I meant it in 2004, but it's certainly
in the same spirit and of the same kind that I was thinking
about.

So not only have I not "given up," but I consider my 2004 prediction
still to be 100% correct. If I included in my 2004 prediction
something about timing (something that I was still sometimes sloppy
about in those days), then I shouldn't have done that, because those
kinds of timing predictions cannot be made in the Generational
Dynamics methodology. But the trend prediction was correct, the
prediction that public debt would keep increasing was correct, and
that therefore it will end up in a financial panic and crash is still
correct.

However, if you have a methodology that in 2004 came up with a 2020
date for the P/E ratio to fall to single digits, then I'll have to
admit that you've certainly been extremely accurate with the timing,
and I congratulate you on that.

In my World View columns, I only write about financial issues when I
have something new to add. For example, I could write today that "The
S&P 500 P/E ratio is 25.04, as of Friday morning. This is
astronomically higher than the historical average of 14, indicating
that the stock market is in a huge bubble, and is headed for a major
financial crisis." But I've written things like that several times in
the past, and there's no point in just repeating it.

I haven't updated my own P/E ratio chart since August 2015:



As this shows, the P/E ratio has been far above the historical average
since 1990, and so by the Law of Mean Reversion it will fall well
below the average. And because it's been so far above the average for
so long, it will probably fall well below the historic lows of 5-6,
and stay there for a long time, in order to restore the historical
average to 14.

Since you're really into analyzing timings, you may be interested in
what Higgenbotham has been posting in the Financial Topics thread of
the Generational Dynamics forum for several years.

Higgenbotham has been shorting the market for years, using various
charting techniques to predict when the crash will occur. He's lost
money at various times and made money at others. I keep telling him
that amazed I am at what he does and how he must have a stomach made
of steel to do it, since I sometimes feel sick to my stomach just
reading what he's doing.

At any rate, he seems to have made about $500 in a few hours
overnight on Thursday.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...780#p38865

I look upon this with total awe. If I even tried anything like this,
I'd end up in the hospital with total nervous breakdown.

So I don't know if you're in the market yourself, or if you're a
short-seller, but if you have any insights into market timing,
Higgenbotham would probably be interested in hearing them.

By the way, I've also been posting my own speculation recently.

The market has peaked on January 26 of this year, and since then has
been following the same kind of wild swings as when the
market peaked on September 3, 1929.

** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...i.djia.htm

The earnings period is going to start in earnest this week. The
expectations are an astronomical earnings increase. If those
astronomical expectations are not met, that could be the trigger for a
panic and a crash.

One theory is that the October 28, 1929, panic occurred because
earnings were below expectations.

If we want to guess at when there might be a panic this year, it would
be just as far into the earnings period, so it would be on April 28,
2018. If we follow the 1929 pattern, then there would be a massive
panic, followed by a rapid near recovery. After that, the market
would keep falling, and reach bottom somewhere around 2020, which is
what you predicted in 2004.

However, it would fall far below 8000. Probably around 1000.

Anyway, I post these kinds of semi-wild speculations in the forum, but
I rarely include them in my World View articles.

[Cynic Hero '86]

The problem with your financial predictions isn't that the predictions was wrong, in fact it was correct. It is the fact that the predicted Financial Crash has already occurred. You Predicted a Crash Caused by Speculative lending and other economic malpractice in 2003/2004 and the predicted crash Did in fact Occur, in 2008. The Problem with a Crash "worse than 1929" at this points is that Nobody is Investing in the stock Market that much in 2018. There is No Mass speculation like in 1929, because nobody other than established investors trusts the stock market with their money. The Current stock market as some have pointed out, is largely decoupled from the "real" economy at this point. If The stock Market reflected real numbers it would still be at 2010 levels.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-07-2018, 02:44 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > The problem with your financial predictions isn't that the
> predictions was wrong, in fact it was correct. It is the fact that
> the predicted Financial Crash has already occurred. You Predicted
> a Crash Caused by Speculative lending and other economic
> malpractice in 2003/2004 and the predicted crash Did in fact
> Occur, in 2008. The Problem with a Crash "worse than 1929" at this
> points is that Nobody is Investing in the stock Market that much
> in 2018. There is No Mass speculation like in 1929, because nobody
> other than established investors trusts the stock market with
> their money. The Current stock market as some have pointed out, is
> largely decoupled from the "real" economy at this point. If The
> stock Market reflected real numbers it would still be at 2010
> levels.

Investment Company Institute Wrote:> As of December 31, 2017, 401(k) plans held an estimated $5.3
> trillion in assets and represented 19 percent of the $27.9
> trillion in US retirement assets, which includes
> employer-sponsored retirement plans (both defined benefit (DB) and
> defined contribution (DC) plans with private- and public-sector
> employers), individual retirement accounts (IRAs), and
> annuities. In comparison, 401(k) assets were $3.0 trillion and
> represented 17 percent of the US retirement market in
> 2007.

https://www.ici.org/policy/retirement/pl.../faqs_401k

401(k) Plan Assets
Billions of dollars, end-of-period, selected periods

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Apr-18 World View -- US will sell submarine technology to Taiwan, as Japan launches first marine brigade since end of WW II

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Trump administration approves selling submarine technology to Taiwan
  
• Japan launches first marine brigade since the end of World War II
  

****
**** Trump administration approves selling submarine technology to Taiwan
****


Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen on a Dutch-built submarine last year. (AP)

In a further challenge to China, the Trump administration has approved
a marketing license that will allow US manufacturers to sell submarine
technology to Taiwan.

For years, Taiwan has tried to acquire submarines from other
countries, but China has repeatedly used pressure and threats on those
countries to prevent the sales. Taiwan purchased two submarines from
the Netherlands in the 1980s, but China has successfully blocked other
sales since then. In 2012, Taiwan began a program to build its own
diesel submarines, but that program still required the purchase of
submarine technology from other countries.

Early in 2017, US manufacturers expressed an interest in working on
the project with Taiwan, but needed approval in the form of a
"marketing license" from the US State Department. That license was
finally issued this week.

The decision also means that the U.S. will be able to provide Taiwan
with so-called “red” parts, or technology which the island is unable
to produce itself, including torpedoes and missiles. Taiwan News and
Reuters and Jamestown (30-Mar-2012) and Focus Taiwan (31-May-2017)

Related Articles:

• Taiwan's president responds to military threats from China (01-Jan-2017)
  
  
• China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China (26-May-2016)
  
  
• Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
  
  
• China's 'Anti-secession law' provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
  

****
**** Japan launches first marine brigade since the end of World War II
****

In a ceremony on Saturday, Japan launched the Amphibious Rapid
Deployment Brigade (ARDB), its first marine brigade since the end
of World War II.

In a speech, Tomohiro Yamamoto, vice defense minister, said:

<QUOTE>"Given the increasingly difficult defense and security
situation surrounding Japan, defense of our islands has become a
critical mandate."<END QUOTE>

Yamamoto is thought to be referring to the Senkaku Islands, which are
threatened by China, and where China makes its usual unsupported
claims of "indisputable sovereignty."

The brigade is the latest component of a growing marine force that
includes helicopter carriers, amphibious ships, Osprey tilt-rotor
troop carriers and amphibious assault vehicles, meant to deter China
as it pushes for easier access to the Western Pacific

The ARDB is controversial, since it appears to go beyond the Article
self-defense clause of Japan's postwar "pacifist" constitution, which
forbids any military action except for "self-defense" on Japanese
soil.

However, military provocations by China and North Korea have been
changing public opinion in Japan to make elimination of the
self-defense clause more publicly acceptable.

In 2015, prime minister Shinzo Abe was able to get parliament to
reinterpret the self-defense clause to mean "collective self-defense,"
which means that military action would be permitted anywhere in the
world when an ally (such as the United States) is attacked. That
means that the ARDB can be used even in overseas military actions,
provided that the US or any other Japanese ally is under attack.
Kyodo News and Reuters
and Russia Today

Related Articles:

[*] Japan will shoot down N. Korean missiles via 'collective self-defense' (13-Aug-2017)

[*] Japan's largest warship will train with US Navy in the South China Sea (14-Mar-2017)

[*] Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan (05-May-2014)

[*] China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense' (18-Jul-2015)

[*] Japan's troops in South Sudan become first test of new 'collective self-defense' policy (19-Nov-2016)
[/list]


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Netherlands,
Japan, Shinzo Abe, Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade, ARDB,
Tomohiro Yamamoto, Senkaku Islands, collective self-defense

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Apr-18 World View -- Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's chemical weapons attack in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New chemical weapon attack in Syria kills 48, hospitalizes hundreds
  
• Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's chemical weapons attack in Syria
  
• Syria reports that it's under missile attack, 'likely' by the US
  

****
**** New chemical weapon attack in Syria kills 48, hospitalizes hundreds
****


Medical workers treat toddlers following chlorine gas attack in Douma, Syria, on Sunday (AP)

At least 48 people were killed in a chemical weapons attack on
Saturday on the town of Douma in in eastern Ghouta, believed by
international officials to have been perpetrated by Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad.

In addition to those killed, at least 500 more people brought into
overwhelmed medical centers and hospitals. Videos recorded by rescue
workers known as the White Helmets, show a number of men, women and
children lying lifeless, many with foam at their mouths.

The chemical weapon in the attack was chlorine, which is particularly
used by al-Assad to attack and kill women and children. Chlorine is
repeatedly used by al-Assad because it is heavier than air. Therefore
it seeps into basements where women and children are likely to be
hiding from al-Assad's missiles and barrel bombs. Once the chlorine
seeps into the basements where women and children are hiding, the
women and children are forced out into the open, where al-Assad's
missiles and barrel bombs can slaughter them en masse. The
foaming at the mouth by victims suggests that Sarin gas was also used.

Syrian state media accused "terrorist" media of fabricating reports
about a chemical attack.

Russia's foreign ministry said reports of a chemical attack by Syrian
forces on Douma had been "planted" in order to create a pretext for a
possible military intervention in Syria:

<QUOTE>"The purpose of these mendacious conjectures, which
are without any basis, is to shield the terrorists and the
irreconcilable radical opposition, which rejects a political
settlement, while at the same time trying to justify possible
external use of force."<END QUOTE>

So we're going through the usual song and dance of listening to
Russian officials make these laughable statements, as if the rest of
us are stupid enough to believe them. Russian officials have lied so
many times about almost every subject, so anything that Russia says
has no credibility, and is as worthless as garbage.

And we can expect the usual flood of Russian internet trolls repeating
the same nonsense supplied by their trollmasters.

During the past 15 months, since Donald Trump took office, there
Bashar al-Assad has launched at least eight chemical weapons attacks,
including one Sarin gas nerve agent attack on April 4 of last year.
BBC
and AP and CNN and USA Today

****
**** Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's chemical weapons attack in Syria
****

President Donald Trump called Bashar al-Assad an "animal" in a series
of tweets on Sunday, and appeared to commit the US to retaliating to
Sunday's attack, not only against Syria but possibly also at Russia.

In 2012, President Barack Obama announced a "red line" that threatened
an American military retaliation if Bashar al-Assad used chemical
weapons on his own people. The US military even sent troops to Jordan
to take action
against the use of chemical weapons. However, when Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas on his own people
in 2013, Obama backed down from his threat, signaling to
al-Assad that he could continue to use chemical weapons with impunity.
And he has done that, with eight verified uses of chlorine gas and
Sarin gas in the last 15 months alone.

A year ago, Donald Trump responded to al-Assad's Sarin gas attack with
a surprise cruise missile attack on al-Assad's airports, wiping out
part of his air force. However, that did nothing to stop al-Assad
from continuing to use chemical weapons on women and children, or to
stop Russia from supporting his use of chemical weapons on women and
children.

Sunday's chemical weapons attack drew a very angry twitter response
from president Trump:

<QUOTE>"Many dead, including women and children, in mindless
CHEMICAL attack in Syria. Area of atrocity is in lockdown and
encircled by Syrian Army, making it completely inaccessible to
outside world. President Putin, Russia and Iran are responsible
for backing Animal Assad. Big price...

....to pay. Open area immediately for medical help and
verification. Another humanitarian disaster for no reason
whatsoever. SICK!

If President Obama had crossed his stated Red Line In The Sand,
the Syrian disaster would have ended long ago! Animal Assad would
have been history!"<END QUOTE>

Trump appears to be setting a new red line, and is blaming Russia's
president Vladimir Putin for the first time, as well as referring to
"Animal Assad." If Trump shows weakness after issuing these tweets,
then his negotiating position in North Korea will be very weak.

The US has also called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations
Security Council on Monday.

The most likely response, if any, is a missile attack similar to the
one launched last year. However, some analysts are suggesting that
Russia should be sanctioned directly by withdrawing the highly
prestigious international World Cup Football (soccer) competition
sponsored by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association
(FIFA) from Moscow, where it's scheduled to begin on June 14. Some
people are suggesting that Vladimir Putin should not be permitted to
glory in sponsoring the FIFA World Cup just two months after
sponsoring the use of chemical weapons by war criminal Bashar
al-Assad. CNN and NBC News and Guardian (London)

****
**** Syria reports that it's under missile attack, 'likely' by the US
****

As this article is being written on Sunday evening (ET), Syria's state
media is reporting that Syria's T4 airbase (Tayfur airport) near the
city of Homs is under missile attack, with resulting casualties, in a
"likely attack by the United States." Reports say that 12 people have
been killed, and that eight missiles were shot down by Syrian air
defenses.

Senior US officials are not denying that a missile attack is taking
place, but are denying that the US is responsible. Assuming that it's
not the US launching missiles, then it suggests that another country
in the American-led coalition is launching the missile attack.

Governments from both Britain and France on Sunday both joined in
America's strong condemnation of al-Assad's use of chlorine gas on his
own people, including women and children. Both countries have also
issued strong condemnations of Russia for the March 4 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia,
using a Russia-developed nerve
agent Novichok, in Salisbury, Britain. Trump and France's president
Emmanuel Macron issued a "strong joint response" to al-Assad. So it's
possible that either Britain or France is launching the attack. It's
also possible that Israel is launching the attack. BBC

Related Articles

• Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working (29-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role (09-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Britain threatens Russia with retaliation over nerve gas poisoning of Skripal (13-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Russia uses an army of trolls on social media (15-Aug-2014)
  
  
• U.S. preparing for worst-case chemical weapons scenario in Syria (13-Oct-2012)
  
  
• Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons (20-Mar-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Eastern Ghouta, Douma, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Sarin gas, chlorine gas, Donald Trump,
Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin,
World Cup, Fédération Internationale de Football Association, FIFA,
Tayfur airport, T4 airbase, Homs, Britain, France

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

(04-07-2018, 02:44 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: The problem with your (John Xenakis) financial predictions isn't that the predictions was wrong, in fact it was correct. It is the fact that the predicted Financial Crash has already occurred. You Predicted a Crash Caused by Speculative lending and other economic malpractice in 2003/2004 and the predicted crash Did in fact Occur, in 2008. The Problem with a Crash "worse than 1929" at this points is that Nobody is Investing in the stock Market that much in 2018. There is No Mass speculation like in 1929, because nobody other than established investors trusts the stock market with their money. The Current stock market as some have pointed out, is largely decoupled from the "real" economy at this point. If The stock Market reflected real numbers it would still be at 2010 levels.

I have an explanation. It is the level of saving that allows people to snap up bargains in a falling market and stop the hemorrhaging of the valuation of the stock market. Savings are cash available for anything from paying off debt to consumer spending (on luxuries) to buying up assets, or starting small businesses when those are reasonable. Near-zero interest rates made high price-earnings ratios tolerable. Dividend income bigger than  bank interest? You would almost be a fool not to invest if you got some windfall. But you need such a windfall or already have the assets.

The super-rich generally do not cut participate in cut-throat competition to reduce their own rates of return. High stock market prices depend upon people not so rich investing in equities because investment in equities is at times more attractive than is putting money into a savings account or buying life insurance. Figure that the young adults who have middle-class incomes are typically deeply in debt for student loans, paying exorbitant rent to live where the jobs that pay anything adequate are, and are deep in debt for the needs of commuting. They are socking money away, all right -- to landlords and creditors.

Should there be another market crash, there might not be people snapping up the bargains in a collapsing market and putting a stop to the collapse. It is the not-so-smart money that props up a stock market as things get shaky. The financier Bernard Baruch once said that once a cabbie asked him how to invest in the stock market (in 1929) he chose to bail on the securities market and go to cash while he could do so. Incomes were not keeping pace with paper profits, and paper profits are the first to disappear.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(04-08-2018, 10:26 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 9-Apr-18 World View -- Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's  chemical weapons attack in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New chemical weapon attack in Syria kills 48, hospitalizes hundreds
  
• Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's  chemical weapons attack in Syria
  
• Syria reports that it's under missile attack, 'likely' by the US
  

More Human rights Tyranny, Assad is Syria's legitimate sovereign government. The west Has no right to overthrow his regime Just because he restores order using methods that a disapproved of under western international etiquette. Syria is not part of the west, it's part of the Middle east where the rules are different. Boomers must accept the existence of other belief systems, instead of only regarding globalism as legitimate.

[Warren Dew]

(04-09-2018, 10:15 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(04-08-2018, 10:26 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 9-Apr-18 World View -- Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's  chemical weapons attack in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New chemical weapon attack in Syria kills 48, hospitalizes hundreds
  
• Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's  chemical weapons attack in Syria
  
• Syria reports that it's under missile attack, 'likely' by the US
  

More Human rights Tyranny, Assad is Syria's legitimate sovereign government. The west Has no right to overthrow his regime Just because he restores order using methods that a disapproved of under western international etiquette. Syria is not part of the west, it's part of the Middle east where the rules are different. Boomers must accept the existence of other belief systems, instead of only regarding globalism as legitimate.

The US has geopolitical interests in the mideast.  If Assad kicks the Iranians out of Syria and formally cedes the Golan to Israel, we can give Assad more leeway.  I'm not holding my breath.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Apr-18 World View -- Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party victory in Hungary signals strong European move to the right

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Viktor Orbán's Fidesz anti-migrant party wins overwhelming victory in Hungary
  
• Europe as a whole moves steadily to the right
  

****
**** Viktor Orbán's Fidesz anti-migrant party wins overwhelming victory in Hungary
****


Anti-immigrant leaders in Europe: Hungary's Viktor Orbán ® with Poland's premier Mateusz Morawiecki at the most recent EU summit (consilium.europa.eu)

On Sunday, Hungary's right-wing, anti-immigrant, and anti-EU, Fidesz
party won an overwhelming political victory on a high turnout, giving
Viktor Orbán his third consecutive term as prime minister of Hungary.

With almost all the votes counted, Fidesz has won 134 seats in the 199
seat parliament, giving Fidesz a two-thirds "super-majority." With
this super-majority, Orbán will be able to modify Hungary's
constitution to give himself additional powers, possibly dictatorial
powers, and to make sure that he will be reelected for many years to
come.

In celebrating his victory, Orbán said:

<QUOTE>"There is a big battle behind us. We have won. Today
Hungary had a decisive victory. We have the chance to defend
Hungary."<END QUOTE>

By "defend Hungary," Orbán meant defend it from migrants.

Poland is congratulating Orbán on his victory. Poland’s deputy
foreign minister and envoy to the European Union, Konrad Szymanski
said:

<QUOTE>"It’s a confirmation of Central Europe’s emancipation
policy. Emancipation not directed at fighting anybody but at
making Central Europe visible as a very constructive European and
European Union partner."<END QUOTE>

By "emancipation," Szymanski is not talking about freeing some slaves.
He's talking about emancipating Poland from the policies of Brussels,
particularly policies about resettling migrants that arrive in Greece
or Italy. Poland's nationalist government shares Orbán's view that
Muslim migrants threaten Europe's "Christian" heritage.

In 2015, the EU adopted a migrant quota system last year that was
supposed to relocate 160,000 refugees from Greece and Italy to other
EU countries. The plan fell apart because few countries were willing
to accept their quotas, and several countries, led by Hungary and
Poland, refused to resettle any refugees at all. In the end, only
about 30,000 refugees were ever resettled under this plan.

Some observers have accused Orbán of using anti-semitic "dog whistle'
remarks during the campaign. They point to Orbán's frequent use in
campaign ads of the Hungarian Jewish billionaire George Soros as the
symbol of foreign influence in Hungary. In March, Orbán said:

<QUOTE>"We are fighting an enemy that is different from us.
Not open but hiding; not straightforward but crafty; not honest
but base; does not believe in working but speculates with money;
does not have its own homeland but feels it owns the whole
world."<END QUOTE>

Many observers believe that these remarks were anti-semitic, intended
to target Soros as a Jew. Reuters and Forward and BBC

****
**** Europe as a whole moves steadily to the right
****

Orbán's Fidesz party won an overwhelming victory with a 134 seat
super-majority in the 199 seat parliament.

In second place was the Jobbik Party, with 25 seats. Jobbik is
considered to be even farther right than Fidesz, though in recent
years the party leaders have tried to move the party towards the
center, and to shed its anti-semitic and xenophobic image.

In third place, with 20 seats, was the center-left Socialist party.
The significance of this situation is that in Hungary, the two major
parties are both on the right, and the center left in Europe is in
collapse.

EuroIntelligence summarized the situation as follows:

<QUOTE>"The slide of the social democratic party from its
peak of power in 2006 is both a long-term trend in Hungary and a
broader trend in the EU as a whole. Hungary is now one of a long
list of countries where the two main parties are both on the
right, because the collapsing social democrats have not been
replaced by a party on the left but one on the right. Poland and
the Netherlands are firmly in that list. Whether to include France
and Italy depends on where one puts Macron's En Marche and the
Five Star Movement, but asked about the right-wing economic
policies of his government Édouard Philippe quipped "what did you
expect?" Spain and Austria - and even Germany - seem to be moving
in the same direction. In many of these cases - Germany, Italy,
the Netherlands, Hungary, Austria - the party replacing the social
democrats could be classed as far-right. This doesn't look like a
Europe where Orbán should feel particularly
uncomfortable."<END QUOTE>

Hungary-based Péter Krekó of Capital Institute agrees, saying that
Orbán is providing support to populist tendencies in western Europe:
"The populist right wing in western Europe deems Orbán as a hero, he
represents an alternative model for Europe. He is the 'anti-Merkel'
and that makes him popular with many."

However, Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn says that won a
clear election victory because of a "tumor" of scaremongering: "Today
it is Hungary and Poland, tomorrow others in eastern and central
Europe, even a big founding country of the EU, could develop a taste
for undermining values and scaremongering."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the atrocities that
occur in one generational crisis war appear again in similar forms
decades later in the next generational crisis war, as the survivors of
the last war die off. With Europe's shift to the right, we're
beginning to see the revival of the xenophobia that brought about
World War II, such as xenophobic attitudes towards Jews, Muslims and
Roma Gypsies. As the next world war approaches, we'll see a return to
the genocide, ethnic cleansing and war crimes that occurred in World
War II, and which we're already seeing to some extent in the Mideast.
EuroIntelligence and
EU Observer
and Budapest Business Journal and AP

Related Articles

• Hungary's Viktor Orbán defends 'Christian culture' (18-Sep-2015)
  
  
• Refugee crisis: Turkey ridicules Europe as Hungary closes Croatia border (17-Oct-2015)
  
  
• As expected, Austria follows Hungary in saying 'No more migrants' (07-Sep-2015)
  
  
• Hungary's Viktor Orbán defeated in attempt to ban refugee quotas (09-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Despite growing migration crises, European Union bitterly divided over policy (15-Dec-2017)
  
  
• European nations split on the future of Europe (02-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hungary, Viktor Orbán, Fidesz,
Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, Konrad Szymanski,
Greece, Italy, George Soros, Jobbik, Socialist,
Péter Krekó, Capital Institute, Luxembourg, Jean Asselborn

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Apr-18 World View -- Major multi-national military operation planned for Syria after Sarin gas use

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Fake news: Newsweek says Mattis denied any evidence that Assad used Sarin gas
  
• Haley announces major change in policy regarding Russia and Security Council
  
• Major multi-national military operation planned for Syria after Sarin gas use
  
• Russia's Andrey Klimov: Sarin gas attack is just a Hollywood movie
  

****
**** Fake news: Newsweek says Mattis denied any evidence that Assad used Sarin gas
****


Children being medically treated in Douma Syria after chemical weapons attack (AP)

I've had trolls referring to a February Newsweek article that says
that US Secretary of Defense James Mattis claims that there is "no
evidence" that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad had ever used Sarin
gas.

This is totally fake news, as suggested by the fact that the Newsweek
article did not give a link to the transcript of the press briefing
where Mattis supposedly made this remark, which they could easily have
done.

I actually went to the trouble to track down the transcript -- which
incidentally wasn't hard at all, and took about 30 seconds, which is
another indication that the Newsweek article was a full-fledged hoax.
We have to assume that Ian Wilkie, the author of the article, is one
of Russia's army of paid internet trolls, and moonlights for Newsweek.

Mattis was giving a press conference and answering questions thrown at
him by reporters. The press conference covered various subjects,
including Ukraine and Afghanistan, and the questions about Syria are
scattered throughout the transcript. Here are some excerpts:

<QUOTE>"We think that they did not carry out what they said
they would do back when -- in the previous administration, when
they were caught using it. Obviously they didn't, cause they used
it again during our administration."<END QUOTE>

According to Mattis, what they said they were going to do in 2013,
when they were caught using Sarin gas, was to destroy all their stocks
of chemical weapons, but obviously they didn't do that, since they've
used chemical weapons repeatedly, and used Sarin gas again during the
Trump administration (on April 4, 2017).

Mattis continued answering questions about chemical weapons attacks in
2018. He said that chlorine gas has been used recently, and he's
looking for evidence whether Sarin gas has also been used recently:

<QUOTE>"And that gives us a lot of reason to suspect
them. And now we have other reports from the battlefield from
people who claim it's been used.

We do not have evidence of it [Sarin gas]. But we're not refuting
them; we're looking for evidence of it. Since clearly we are
using -- we are dealing with the Assad regime that has used denial
and deceit to hide their outlaw actions, okay? ... Well, there's
certainly groups that say they've used it. And so they think
there's a likelihood, so we're looking for the evidence. ...

I think [chlorine gas weapons have] been used repeatedly. And
that's, as you know, a somewhat separate category, which is why I
broke out the sarin as another. ...

No, I have not got the evidence, not specifically [that Sarin gas
is being used]. I don't have the evidence.

What I'm saying is that other -- that groups on the ground, NGOs,
fighters on the ground have said that sarin has been used. So we
are looking for evidence. I don't have evidence, credible or
uncredible.<END QUOTE>

That press conference occurred in February, and apparently no recent
evidence of Sarin gas was found, until Sunday.

By the way, check out the beginning of the transcript, where Mattis
mocks the NY Times for fake news, saying that the reporter
interviewing him apparently wasn't even listening to him.

<QUOTE>"I salute whatever you write. You have the right to
write anything. I thought it was especially humorous that we
didn't realize we were still on the -- on the video
teleconference, since one of the people on the screen was talking
with us at the same time. I guess we were talking to ourselves
and imagining the person on the screen. Yeah, I got a kick out of
it, frankly."<END QUOTE>

Later in the transcript, he says, "See, right now, we're at a point
where ISIS is on the ropes. It’s obvious -- you know -- for all the
questions and challenges I had in this room over the last year, I
think now it's pretty much undeniable that they're in trouble. ... So
we want to get back to finishing off ISIS." Newsweek (8-Feb) and Bellingcat (9-Feb) and U.S. Dept. of Defense (2-Feb)

****
**** Haley announces major change in policy regarding Russia and Security Council
****

On April 6 of last year, president Donald Trump ordered cruise missile
attacks on the Shayrat Airbase in Syria, from which Bashar al-Assad
had launched Sarin gas attacks on civilians on April 4. Trump had
been moved to action after seeing pictures small children struggling
to breathe, gasping for breath, and choking to death. The cruise
missile attack was meant to be a warning to al-Assad not to use Sarin
gas again.

Now there have been new pictures of choking children, following
al-Assad's latest Sarin gas attack on civilians on Sunday, and Trump
is furious again. This time, Trump went farther, blaming not only
al-Assad, but also his backers in Russia and Iran:

<QUOTE>"Very concerned, when a thing like that can happen,
this is about humanity. We're talking about humanity. And it
can't be allowed to happen. So we'll be looking at that barbaric
act and studying what's going on. If it's Russia, if it's Syria,
if it's Iran, if it's all of them together, we'll figure it out
and we'll know the answers quite soon."<END QUOTE>

At the United Nations Security Council on Monday, US ambassador Nikki
Haley went a lot farther in the administration condemnation of Syria,
Iran and Russia:

<QUOTE>"I could hold up pictures of babies, lying dead next
to their mothers. Brothers and sisters. Toddlers and infants
still in diapers. All lying together, dead. Their skin is the
ashen blue that is now tragically familiar from chemical weapons
scenes. Their eyes are open and lifeless. White foam bubbles from
their mouths and noses. Pictures of dead Syrians who are not
soldiers. People who are not armed. People who are the very
definition of innocent and non-threatening – women and children
hiding in basements from a renewed assault by Bashar
Al-Assad. Families that were hiding underground to escape Assad’s
conventional bombs and artillery. ...

I could hold up pictures of survivors. Children with burning eyes,
choking for breath. I could hold up pictures of first responders
washing the chemicals off of the victims. Putting respirators on
the children. First responders walking through room after room of
families lying motionless, with babies still in the arms of their
mothers and fathers. I could show pictures of a hospital attacked
by the chemical weapons. I could show pictures of hospitals struck
by barrel bombs following the chemical attack.

Ambulances and rescue vehicles have been repeatedly attacked,
maximizing the number of dead civilians. Civil defense centers
have been attacked in order to paralyze the medical response – to
increase the suffering of the survivors.

Who does this? Only a monster does this. Only a monster targets
civilians and then ensures that there are no ambulances to
transfer the wounded. No hospitals to save their lives. No doctors
or medicine to ease their pain.

I could hold up pictures of all of this killing and suffering for
the Council to see, but what would be the point? The monster who
was responsible for these attacks has no conscience, not even to
even be shocked by pictures of dead children.

The Russian regime, whose hands are all covered in the blood of
Syrian children, cannot be ashamed by pictures of its victims.
We’ve tried that before. We must not overlook Russia and Iran’s
roles in enabling the Assad regime’s murderous destruction.
Russia and Iran have military advisers at Assad’s airfields and
operations centers. Russian officials are on the ground helping
direct the regime’s “starve and surrender” campaign, and Iranian
allied forces do much of the dirty work. When the Syrian military
pummels civilians, they rely on the military hardware given by
Russia.

Russia could stop this senseless slaughter if it wanted. But it
stands with the Assad regime and supports without any hesitation.

What’s the point of trying to shame such people? After all, no
civilized government would have anything to do with Assad’s
murderous regime. Pictures of dead children mean little to
governments like Russia who expend their own resources to prop up
Assad."<END QUOTE>

That was all by way of introduction to the following significant and
explicit United States policy change:

<QUOTE>"Russia’s obstructionism will not continue to hold us
hostage when we are confronted with an attack like this one. The
United States is determined to see that the monster who dropped
chemical weapons on the Syrian people held to account. ...

We are on the edge of a dangerous precipice. The great evil of
chemical weapons use that once unified the world in opposition, is
on the verge of becoming the new normal. The international
community must not let this happen.

We are beyond showing pictures of dead babies. We are beyond
appeals to conscience. We have reached the moment when the world
must see justice done. History will record this as the moment when
the Security Council either discharged its duty or demonstrated
its utter and complete failure to protect the people of Syria.

Either way, the United States will respond."<END QUOTE>

The reason that this is significant is because it makes clear that the
U.S. will no longer be bound by Russia's vetoes in the Security
Council. As I've been writing numerous times since 2011, Russia
adopted a policy of using the UNSC to control US and Nato foreign
policy by demanding that any military decision be approved by the
UNSC, where Russia could veto it. At the same time, Russia could
invade Ukraine, invade and annex Crimea, and perform other
international crimes, and go ahead with them without bothering to get
UNSC approval. Not only would Russia control US and Nato foreign
policy, Nato countries would turn against each other in confusion over
how to respond.

So when Nikki Haley says, "Either way, the United States will
respond," she's declaring the end of the policy of allowing Russia's
veto to control U.S. policy. She's saying to Russia: veto the
resolution or not, as you wish, but we're going ahead with a military
operation. CNBC and U.S. State Dept.

****
**** Major multi-national military operation planned for Syria after Sarin gas use
****

As I'm writing this on Tuesday evening (ET), there are reports that a
military attack may be imminent. Britain, France and Qatar are openly
supporting the Trump administration's plans for a military operation
in Syria.

The military attack will have to be significant and massive, since
last year's "warning" attack had no effect.

Some analysts are suggesting that the military operation might be led
by France, rather than by the U.S. If true, it would be a further
humiliation for Vladimir Putin, who has been using the UNSC to turn
the Nato countries against each other. This display of unity by
France, Britain, Qatar and the U.S. would be a united front against
Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin. AP

****
**** Russia's Andrey Klimov: Sarin gas attack is just a Hollywood movie
****

Every time one of these situations occurs, Russia unleashes its army
of paid trolls to make laughable claims and spread disinformation.
One of the best of these troll storms occurred after Russians in East
Ukraine shot down the Malaysian Airlines MH17 passenger plane with a
Russian-made Buk missile, bragged about it in a tweet, then pulled
down the tweet. Russian media and trolls went into full-on troll
mode, making one ridiculous claim after another: Russian commander
Strelkov's tweet had never occurred; the US had shot down MH17 to
embarrass Russia; the airplane was struck by a meteor; no living
people were aboard the plane as it flew on autopilot from Amsterdam,
where it had been pre-loaded with "rotting corpses."

So now we have a new troll storm. Andrey Klimov, a Senator in the
Russia's Duma, was interviewed on the BBC, and I transcribed excerpts
of the interview.

Klimov's main point is that the Sarin gas attack never happened, but
was staged as a Hollywood movie:

<QUOTE>"It looks like an artificial performance, like a kind
of movie, to make that provocation visible. But I can't say for
sure that it may be any real occasion of chemical weapons in this
area. It looks like a provocation. It looks like a Hollywood
movie.

[Referring to the images of choking children, and children having
to be hosed down with water.] You're just repeating somebody's
rumors. I'm speaking about facts, because there are no real facts
on the ground. But we'd like to find those who produced such kinds
of fake news, because those people are interested in keeping such
kind of confrontation in the world. And we'd like to find that
bastard, to show to the world that they're a
bastard."<END QUOTE>

Well Andrey, you have control of Damascus and Douma, so don't just
complain, start searching for the bastard. We'd all like to know who
he or she is.

Klimov also reacted to Trump's threat of a military operation in
Syria:

<QUOTE>"They have no right to do that in any case, because no
kind of power granted on the part of the United Nations. Nobody
asked them from Damascus to do that. It's a kind of invasion.
It's a kind of occupation. It cannot be acceptable in today's
world. It is out of any kind of international law. Nobody
appointed them as international policeman, or international judge,
or international prosecutor. They're going to do it themselves,
and that cannot be acceptable at all."<END QUOTE>

This is a laughable invocation of international law from the Russians,
who ignore international law, but it's precisely the policy that
Russia has been following since 2011. Russia breaks international law
recklessly, never asking the UN Security Council for approval, but
then demands that the West get approval for anything from the UNSC,
where Russia can veto it. This is Russia's policy that Nikki Haley
specifically rejected on Monday.

It's gotten to the point where these Russian officials and trolls are
just plain pathetic, because nobody believes their rantings any more.
Vladimir Putin really needs to come up with a new policy.

Related Articles

• Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics (22-Apr-2011)
  
  
• Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working (29-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Britain threatens Russia with retaliation over nerve gas poisoning of Skripal (13-Mar-2018)
  
  
• President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians (06-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Special prosecutor Robert Mueller issues farcical indictment of Russian trolls (19-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Russia uses an army of trolls on social media (15-Aug-2014)
  
  
• Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, James Mattis, Newsweek, Ian Wilkie,
Russia, Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iran, Douma,
Shayrat Airbase, Nikki Haley, Britain, France, Qatar,
Andrey Klimov, Malaysian Airlines MH17

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Apr-18 World View -- The world awaits Trump's promised retaliation for al-Assad's chemical weapons attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The world awaits Trump's promised retaliation for al-Assad's chemical weapons attack
  
• Israel braces for attack from Iran in retaliation for Sunday's airstrike
  
• Turkey to open a new border crossing to Syria's Afrin
  
• Yemen war escalates as Iran-backed Houthis launch missiles at Saudi targets
  

****
**** The world awaits Trump's promised retaliation for al-Assad's chemical weapons attack
****


Survivor of Saturday's chemical weapons attack in Douma, Syria (Getty)

President Donald Trump on Sunday had promised retaliation within 24-48
hours for the use of chemical weapons by Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad on Saturday on civilians, including women and children.

However, by Wednesday evening, no retaliation has occurred, and the
world is watching and waiting. But the rhetoric between Russia and
the US has heated up a great deal.

Alexander Zasypkin, Russia's ambassador to Lebanon, said on Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"if there is a US missile attack, we - in line with
both Putin and Russia's chief of staff's remarks - will shoot down
US rockets and even the sources that launched the
missiles."<END QUOTE>

Zasypkin was alluding to a previous Russian threat to shoot down not
only American missiles, but also the warplanes and battleships that
launches them.

This only served to goad president Trump, who tweeted this:

<QUOTE>"Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired
at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and
new and "smart!" You shouldn't be partners with a Gas Killing
Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!"<END QUOTE>

However, Trump was more conciliatory in a later tweet:

<QUOTE>"Our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has
ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for
this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that
would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work
together. Stop the arms race?"<END QUOTE>

Long time readers are aware that Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews against
Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each
other.

Saturday's chemical weapons attack by al-Assad has caused a chain
reaction that has raised tensions in the Mideast to the next level
higher than they'd been before Saturday. Here's a summary:

• Israel and Iran appear headed for a proxy war in Syria.
  
• Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting a proxy war in Yemen.
  
• The U.S. and Syria are headed for a confrontation in Syria.
  
• The U.S. and Russia may be headed for a confrontation in
  Syria.
  
• Turkey and Russia are headed for a confrontation in
  Syria.

Perhaps even more remarkable is that the political divide in the West,
including the United States, is getting more hostile, and not just
along party lines. It's increasingly hostile to hear American
analysts and journalists side with Russia trolls in claiming that
there's "no proof" that Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons or Sarin
gas, in the face of conclusions reached by America, British, French,
German and other governments.

Russia has lied repeatedly about Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, and other
things, and for an American analyst to side with Russian trolls
against multiple Western governments is truly a remarkable
development. And as I reported yesterday,
this has even extended to the point where Newsweek
magazine is publishing easily debunkable fake news US Secretary of
Defense is claiming that no evidence exists that al-Assad ever used
Sarin gas.

So let me try to make this clear.

Since the Syrian war began, I've written 359 analytical articles with
"Syria" in the title, and hundreds more where Syria was discussed, but
not in the title. These articles are all available on my web site for
anyone to check.

I have an archive of almost 100,000 articles that I've copied and
pasted in the last 15 years. Over 3,000 of those articles have
"Syria" in the title, and probably tens of thousands more discuss the
Syria war. These articles are from all political biases and from all
media sources and all countries available on the internet. I
typically study 10-20 of these articles in detail for each article
that I write.

My point is this: 99.9% of the time, I know a lot more than you do.
And I'm telling you that there's no doubt that Bashar al-Assad has
used Sarin gas several times on innocent civilians, and has used
chlorine gas, phosphorous and ammonia many, many times on innocent
civilians. There is no question about this.

But the fact that some Americans are calling officials in both the
Barack Obama and Donald Trump administrators liars, and are saying
that paid Russian trolls are telling the truth, is truly a remarkable
development. Al-Jazeera and CNN and Reuters

Related Articles:

• Major multi-national military operation planned for Syria after Sarin gas use (11-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's chemical weapons attack in Syria (09-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Britain threatens Russia with retaliation over nerve gas poisoning of Skripal (13-Mar-2018)
  
  
• President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians (06-Apr-2017)
  

****
**** Israel braces for attack from Iran in retaliation for Sunday's airstrike
****

On Sunday, president Donald Trump threatened a "big price to pay"
after the chemical weapons attack by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
on Douma on Saturday. As I was writing an article about this
and on Sunday evening, Syria's state
media reported a missile attack on Syria's T4 airbase (Tayfur airport)
near Homs. US officials denied having anything to do with the attack,
so it was thought that some other country, perhaps Britain, France or
Israel, might have been fulfilling Trump's "big price to pay" threat.

Well, news reports since then have indicated that the missile strike
on T4 airbase had nothing to do with Trump's threat, except possibly
to influence the timing. According to Iranian media, the attack was
from Israeli warplanes.

If it was an Israeli airstrike, then the target was an Iranian drone
base. Israel has repeatedly expressed its red lines when it comes to
Syria:

• It will not allow the transfer of high-powered weapons to
  Hezbollah.
  
• It will not allow any breach of Israeli sovereignty.
  
• It will work to prevent Iran from entrenching itself in
  Syria.

Israel neither confirmed nor denied the airstrike, but Israel's
Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman made these comments:

<QUOTE>"I want to say one thing with absolute certainty. We
will not allow the Iranians to base themselves in Syria, no matter
what the price. We have no other choice. To agree to the Iranians
basing themselves in Syria is like agreeing to Iran putting a
noose around our neck."<END QUOTE>

Iran's media is reporting that four Iranians were killed by the
Israeli airstrikes.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Seyed
Ali Khamenei, said:

<QUOTE>"The Israeli regime's aggression against Syria is a
breach of this country's national sovereignty and territorial
integrity and runs counter to all international regulations and
principles."<END QUOTE>

Velayati added, "Definitely, this crime (by Israel) will not remain
without a response."

Israeli forces have gone onto high alert, and Israeli media are
talking about a "proxy war between Iran and Israel" taking place on
Syrian soil:

<QUOTE>"Beyond the confrontation between Russia and the
United States, the main story in the northern arena is the direct
confrontation between Israel and Iran on Syrian soil. There is no
more shadow war or contest through agents. The confrontation
between Israel and Iran, it seems, is turning into a limited
direct military confrontation. It is impossible to ignore the fact
that within two months, in at least two known incidents, Iranian
fighters and officers were killed by an action attributed to the
Israeli Air Force. It seems that in light of the continued Iranian
consolidation in Syria, Israel has decided to remove the gloves.

After the day of battle two months ago, when the Iranian UAV was
intercepted and an Israeli fighter plane was shot down, quite a
few things happened underneath the surface, despite the apparent
media silence."<END QUOTE>

Former prime minister and defense minister Ehud Barak said, “When on a
given day, the chance for [active military conflict with Iran] are
about one percent, now it is about 10%." CNN and Tasnim News (Iran) and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel

Related Articles

• Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus (14-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Turkey to open a new border crossing to Syria's Afrin
****

Turkey on Wednesday announced plans to open a new border crossing from
Turkey to the Syrian city of Afrin. The purpose of the border
crossing is to speed up delivery of humanitarian aid to the city, and
help build infrastructure in the region.

However, the border crossing will also strengthen Turkey's link to
Afrin, which is opposed by Russia, Iran and Syria.

Turkey's military Operation Olive Branch took place over several
months, with the objective of regaining control of Syria's border city
of Afrin from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). The YPG is
linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is considered by
the US and Europe as a terrorist organization, and has conducted
numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey over a thirty year period.

Now that the operation has been completely, apparently successfully,
Russia, Iran and Syria would all like the Turkish forces to withdraw
back into Turkey. Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said
Monday:

<QUOTE>"[Turkish] President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan has never
said that Turkey wants to occupy Afrin. We always proceed from the
fact that the easiest way to normalize the situation in Afrin now
that Turkish representatives say that the main goals they set
there have been achieved would be to return the territory under
the control of the Syrian government."<END QUOTE>

However, Erdogan rejected Lavrov's remarks:

<QUOTE>"We know very well who we’ll hand Afrin to. First,
let’s talk about handing over areas controlled by other countries
in Syria to Syria.

When the time comes, we will give Afrin to the people of Afrin
personally, but the timing of this is up to us, we will determine
it, not Mr. Lavrov."<END QUOTE>

Turkey, Russia and Iran have had a three-way alliance of convenience
for several months, creating "de-escalation zones" in Syria. However,
neither the Syrian regime nor any of the Syrian rebel groups doing the
actual fighting were party to the agreements. Whatever the value of
that alliance, it appears to be losing whatever little effectiveness
it had, and increasingly is fraying, as all the participants in the
Syrian war are looking forward to grabbing their respective pieces of
Syria. Anadolu (Turkey) and Sputnik (Russia) and Reuters

Related Articles:

• Concerns grow of humanitarian disaster in Afrin, Syria, as Turkey's forces enter (16-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Socialists and feminists to act as 'human shields' protecting Kurds from Turkey in Afrin Syria (12-Mar-2018)
  
  
• US-backed Kurds stop fighting ISIS in order to fight Turkey in Afrin (08-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin (21-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** Yemen war escalates as Iran-backed Houthis launch missiles at Saudi targets
****

The Houthi rebels in Yemen declared this to be the "year of ballistic
missiles," after firing a ballistic missiles on Wednesday at targets
in Saudi Arabia's capital city Riyadh, and also at oil storage
facilities belonging to the Saudi oil company Aramco. The missiles
either missed their targets or were shot down by Saudi air defenses,
but a successful strike on an oil storage facility could do a great
deal of damage.

Last week, Houthi rebels caused minor damage to a Saudi oil tanker in
the Red Sea on Tuesday. The oil tanker was able to continue on its
way, escorted by a Saudi coalition warship.

The Houthis are using ballistic missiles and armed drones that could
only have been supplied by Iran. Saudi threatened "a heavy price" for
the Houthis, and for those who are equipping the Houthis. Al Jazeera and Reuters and Arab News and
Deutsche Welle (3-Apr)

Related Articles:

• Al-Houthi missile attack on Saudi cities sharply escalates the Yemen war (27-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition (03-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Generational history of Shia Houthis in Yemen (21-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Donald Trump,
Russia, Alexander Zasypkin, Sergei Lavrov,
Israel, Iran, T4 airbase, Tayfur airport,
Avigdor Liberman, Ehud Barak, Ali Akbar Velayati, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Turkey, Afrin, Operation Olive Branch, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Yemen, Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Aramco

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Mikebert]

You know John, you have posted detailed analyzes every day for years. This makes you an historian of the recent past with deep knowledge of the last 15 years. Think of it this way, a historian may spend years working on a monograph about the detailed events of a 15 year period in the 14th century, for example (I've read some). Such works come from reading scads of accounts of the period, which is exactly what you have done. If you were projected into the future 200 years you could write dozens of monographs about the early 21st century based on the your collected observations in real time.

What I am getting at is you have all this material. Do you have a synthesis? I am not talking about GD. GD is your own construction, like those of my own. They provide insight. But others have studied these things before you. Do you engage with them in your intellectual work? Here is the reason. Your GD model is different. It appears to work by an mechanism that is dissimilar from those of other cycles. But it is of inconvenient length--around 70 years. I cannot relate it to any data set that I know about. Have you developed more compact ways to represent your thesis? Many thousands of pages of text isn't useful data because it requires enormous work to deal with. This work would most effectively be done by you.

I don't usually check out this section very often, but when I do it's mostly presentation of what is going on now. There doesn't seem to be a separate theory section. So what is the objective you are trying to achieve?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Apr-18 World View -- Japan finds 'semi-infinite supply' of rare earth minerals in its territorial waters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan finds 'semi-infinite supply' of rare earth minerals in its territorial waters
  
• Japan's rare earths discovery represents a defeat for China
  

****
**** Japan finds 'semi-infinite supply' of rare earth minerals in its territorial waters
****


Researchers have found rare earth minerals just 2-4 meters below the seabed, at a depth of almost four miles. (Telegraph)

In January 2013, a deep-sea research vessel from Japan obtained seven
samples of mud collected two to four meters below the seafloor at
5,600 to 5,800 meters in depth, near Japan's Minami-Tori-shima Island,
also known as Marcus Island, within Japan's exclusive economic zone
(EEZ).

Analyzing the mud revealed that it contained extreme concentrations of
rare earth minerals. Continued research since then has led to an
announcement that the region contains more than 16 million tons of
rare earth minerals. These elements are needed to build high-tech
products ranging from mobile phones to electric vehicles.

This find is being described as a "semi-infinity" supply of rare earth
minerals, enough to supply all of Japan's needs for well over a
century. However, getting at the resources will be an issue, since
they're almost four miles underwater. Japan Times and Fortune and
Nikkei Asian Review

****
**** Japan's rare earths discovery represents a defeat for China
****

China's theft of intellectual property from other nations is a subject
much in the news these days, and China's near-monopoly on rare earth
minerals has been a mechanism for exactly that kind of theft.

As I've said frequently in the past, people who "there won't be a war
because it's bad for business" are wrong. In fact the opposite is
true, since trade becomes just another weapon of war.

In 2009, there was a brief clash between China and Japan in the East
China Sea, and China decided to punish Japan and get revenge by ending
shipments to Japan of rare earth minerals. This was a significant
blow for Japanese manufacturing, since Japan needed these minerals for
manufacture of their high tech products, and Japan was dependent on
being supplied by China.

This became a major foreign policy for China.

As Yasuhiro Kato from Tokyo University has pointed out, "Their real
intention is to force foreign companies to locate plant in
China. They're saying `if you want our rare earth metals, you must
build your factory here, and we can then steal your technology."

In 2012, China stepped up the revenge against Japan. The Beijing
government encouraged the Chinese people to demonstrate and protest
against Japanese businesses in China. The government urged protesters
not to use violence, but that part of the message was clearly ignored,
as protesters torched a Panasonic factory and Toyota dealership,
looted and ransacked Japanese department stores and supermarkets in
several cities.

It became clear to the Japanese that they would need to find an
alternate supply of rare earth minerals, and that's what motivated the
deep-sea research project that made the initial discovery in 2013,
leading to the "semi-infinite" supply of rare earths announced this
week.

The new supply of rare earths has to be described as a defeat for
China, because once Japan is successfully in mining this new supply,
the China will be unable to use rare earths as a weapon of war.
The Diplomat (29-Aug-2017) and Telegraph (London, 24-Mar-2013)

Related Articles

• China halting 'rare earth mineral' exports (20-Oct-2010)
  
  
• Rare earth minerals controversy creates new alliances (28-Oct-2010)
  
  
• Rare earths controversy polarizes China's relations (27-Oct-2010)
  
  
• China and Japan continue to prepare for war over Senkaku/Diaoyu islands (29-Oct-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, China, rare earth minerals,
Minami-Tori-shima Island, Marcus Island

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

Shades of manganese nodules.

China didn't have a monopoly on rare earths, anyway. They just had a monopoly on rare earth extraction, because they can do it cheaper than other countries.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-12-2018, 07:25 PM)Mikebert Wrote: > You know John, you have posted detailed analyzes every day for
> years. This makes you an historian of the recent past with deep
> knowledge of the last 15 years. Think of it this way, a historian
> may spend years working on a monograph about the detailed events
> of a 15 year period in the 14th century, for example (I've read
> some). Such works come from reading scads of accounts of the
> period, which is exactly what you have done. If you were projected
> into the future 200 years you could write dozens of monographs
> about the early 21st century based on the your collected
> observations in real time.

> What I am getting at is you have all this material. Do you have a
> synthesis? I am not talking about GD. GD is your own construction,
> like those of my own. They provide insight. But others have
> studied these things before you. Do you engage with them in your
> intellectual work? Here is the reason. Your GD model is
> different. It appears to work by an mechanism that is dissimilar
> from those of other cycles. But it is of inconvenient
> length--around 70 years. I cannot relate it to any data set that I
> know about. Have you developed more compact ways to represent your
> thesis? Many thousands of pages of text isn't useful data because
> it requires enormous work to deal with. This work would most
> effectively be done by you.

> I don't usually check out this section very often, but when I do
> it's mostly presentation of what is going on now. There doesn't
> seem to be a separate theory section. So what is the objective you
> are trying to achieve?

I've tried writing books, but after writing them, nobody gives a shit,
and I have zero motivation to try again. If someone wants to pay me
to write a book, I'll do it. If someone else wants to write a book,
I'll be happy to help out and be supportive. But I'm not going to
even try to do anything like that again unless someone else has plenty
of skin in the game. Being Sisyphus gets real old.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Apr-18 World View -- DR Congo boycotts its own international humanitarian conference for DR Congo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UN says DR Congo humanitarian crisis at highest emergency level
  
• DR Congo boycotts its own international humanitarian conference for DR Congo
  
• U.S., France, Britain launch Syria attack in retaliation for al-Assad's use of chemical weapons
  

****
**** UN says DR Congo humanitarian crisis at highest emergency level
****


A refugee Congolese woman and children (dpa)

Jan Egeland, the former head of the UN's emergency humanitarian relief
office, was shocked by the catastrophic and growing
humanitarian crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),
and how the international community is ignoring the DRC crisis:

<QUOTE>"This is up there with Yemen and Syria in terms of
number of people in desperate need. I was not prepared of for the
scale of the suffering, frankly.

Since the Congolese are not coming to the Mediterranean, since the
Congolese are not part of a Russian-US or Saudi-Iran battle, they
are being ignored really."<END QUOTE>

According to the United Nations, 13 million people are in need of
humanitarian assistance, 4.5 million people are displaced from their
homes, more than 7 million face severe food insecurity, and two
million children at risk of starvation.

In the past, I've written about the bloody wars in the southwestern
Kasai region, where the armies and militias reporting to the
government of president Joseph Kabila are committing genocide; about
the bloody tribal wars in northeastern Kivu region, causing massive
refugee flows into Uganda; about the massive corruption of Joseph
Kabila, skimming billions of dollars out of the treasury and providing
it to his family and cronies; and of his repeated stunts of refusing
to hold elections, so that he can't be replaced as president.

As we reported in February,

another a humanitarian disaster of "extraordinary proportions" emerged
in Tanganyika province in southeastern DRC. For several years, there
have been bloody clashes between two ethnic groups, the Luba, a Bantu
ethnic group, and the Twa, a Pygmy ethnic group. The violence surged
in January of this year with the entrance of the president Kabila's
Congolese armed forces.

The increasing violence is destabilizing the entire region. As we reported in December,
the genocide by
Kabila's army has resulted in 3.9 million people forced to flee their
homes to escape the violence. Hundreds of thousands have fled to
Zambia, Angola and other neighboring countries as refugees, creating a
humanitarian disaster in those countries.

Since the beginning of the year, 70,000 Congolese in eastern DRC have
fled across the border into Uganda. 40,000 Congolese refugees have
been settled into a single refugee camp, the Kyangwali refugee camp,
in Uganda on the border in DRC. The Kyangwali camp is overcrowded and
running out of space. Because of a lack of humanitarian aid, not
everyone is being fed. There's also shortage of clean water, with
each person receiving just 8 liters per day, while the average person
requires 20 liters. The result has been the spread of cholera, with
1,000 cases of cholera already identified. BBC and Al-Jazeera

Related Articles

• 22-Feb-18 Tanganyika province in DR Congo faces a humanitarian disaster of 'extraordinary proportions' (22-Feb-2018)
  
  
• United Nations stunned as peacekeepers are massacred in DR Congo (09-Dec-2017)
  

****
**** DR Congo boycotts its own international humanitarian conference for DR Congo
****

The United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM)
sponsored a humanitarian conference for Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC), meeting on Friday in Geneva. The purpose of the conference was
to raise funds for humanitarian aid to DRC.

The conference drew $530 million in pledges, less than 1/3 of the
estimated $1.7 billion needed. Refugee official Jan Egeland said, "We
are disappointed that too few countries sent a real message of hope to
the millions of Congolese children, women and men in desperate need of
assistance."

Even more startling is that one of the countries that boycotted
the humanitarian conference was DR Congo itself.

According to Zenon Mukongo Nga, DRC's ambassador to the United Nations,
DRC officials are furious about the description of DRC as
a failed state. In particular, they dispute the the UN estimate
that 13 million people need humanitarian aid, and they say
that only 200,000 people are internally displaced.

<QUOTE>"The level of humanitarian situation was raised to
'level three', the worst of all the levels in the world, meaning
exactly that DR Congo has been compared to the countries where
there is chaos, where the state has collapsed, where there is
nothing working so far. And this drove people mad . "

We have our own figures which should be confronted with UN figures
because, sometimes people are just sitting in their offices in
Geneva, in New York, and they just get reports from each people
who are on the ground. Sometimes they don't go really on the
ground. We have people everywhere and the figures we have are the
real ones."<END QUOTE>

Although no real explanation for the DRC boycott of their own
humanitarian conference has been provided, it appears to be
another cynical action by president Joseph Kabila, one of the
bloodiest and most corrupt leaders in the world.

Kabila was to have stepped down as president in December 2016.
However, he refused to allow elections to go forward, and without
elections he could not step down. Since then, he's made no
preparations for elections, and he's used violence, torture
and jailings to suppress protests, as he continues to stay
in office illegal.

At first he promised to hold elections in December 2017, but
it was clear that those elections would never be held, as he
refused to make any preparations for them. Now he's promising
elections in December 2018, and the international community has
threatened to cut off aid if the elections are not held.

At the same time, Kabila and his family own, either partially or
wholly, more than 80 companies and businesses in the country and
abroad. He and his children own more than 71,000 hectares (175,444
acres) of farmland. His family owns diamond mines, a part of the
country's largest mobile phone network, companies that mine mineral
deposits, gold and limestone, a luxury hotel, stakes in an airline, a
share of the country's banks, and a fast-food franchise.

So there is literally no possibility that Kabila will ever agree to
step down, since if he does then his family's entire corrupt
empire will be put into danger, and many members of his family
could be jailed on charges of corruption.

Humanitarian aid does not go to the government. It's given to NGOs
that provide food, water, medicine and humanitarian services to actual
people. And Kabila couldn't care less for the needs of ordinary
Congolese people.

DRC officials have indicated that what particularly infuriates them
about the characterization of a "humanitarian disaster" in DRC is that
such a characterization discourages investors. And money from
investors goes to government officials, where it will pass into the
bank accounts of Kabila and his family. Bloomberg and UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR) and Deutsche Welle and Relief Web

Related Articles

• United Nations stunned as peacekeepers are massacred in DR Congo (09-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Democratic Republic of Congo issues farcical call for elections in December 2018 (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila brings the art of power and corruption to new heights (24-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Massive government atrocities in DR Congo's Kasai threaten regional stability (21-Jun-2017)
  

****
**** U.S., France, Britain launch Syria attack in retaliation for al-Assad's use of chemical weapons
****


Early Saturday morning in Damascus, Syria, surface to air missiles light up the sky (AP)

As I am writing this article on Friday evening (ET), the United
States, France and Britain launched coordinated missile strikes on
three targets in Syria, two in Damascus, one near Homs, all related to
manufacture and storage of chemical weapons.

The following are some preliminary notes on the announcements.

President Trump announced that the attacks will continue "until the
Syrian regime stops using chemical weapons."

However, Secretary of Defense James Mattis said that the operation was
completed, once the three targets were hit.

If both of these statements are true, it would have to mean there will
be additional operations if the regime continues using chemical
weapons.

There will be debates in Congress whether Trump had the authority to
order these strikes without Congressional approval.

Some people are arguing that UN Security Council approval would also
be needed, but as we've been writing lately, the Russians have been
using the UNSC to control US foreign policy by requiring all
operations to be approved by the UNSC, where Russia has veto power,
while Russia goes ahead with any operations it wants, such as invading
and annexing Crimea, without seeking UNSC approval. Earlier this
week, US ambassador Nikki Haley announced that, in effect, the US
would conduct an operation with or without UNSC and Russian approval.

Russia did not attempt to strike down the incoming missiles,
suggesting that Russia might be tacitly approving of the missile
strikes. Mattis said that Russia was not notified in advance,
but that a standard phone call was made over the joint
US-Russia deconfliction phone line.

However, Syrian media claims that its air defenses shot down some
missiles.

After Trump has set a firm "red line" about chemical weapons, Trump
had no choice but to go through with a strike on Syrian targets.

Friday's strike was an essential message to the North Koreans as the
planned summit meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un approach. If
Trump had backed down from a missile strike, then America would have
had no credibility whatsoever in the summit meeting.

Last year's missile strike did not deter al-Assad from continuing to
use chemical weapons, and the latest strike may be equally
ineffective. Even if al-Assad stops using chemical weapons, the
message to al-Assad is that the only things the west cares about are
chemical weapons and ISIS. Al-Assad is free to use barrel bombs and
any conventional weapons that he wants on women and children. In
fact, al-Assad is expected to move on to his next massive, genocidal
target, Idlib province, with one million displaced people. NBC News and Washington Post

Related Articles:

• The world awaits Trump's promised retaliation for al-Assad's chemical weapons attack (12-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Major multi-national military operation planned for Syria after Sarin gas use (11-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Trump threatens 'big price to pay' after Assad's chemical weapons attack in Syria (09-Apr-2018)
  
  
• President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians (06-Apr-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Jan Egeland, Joseph Kabila, Uganda, Kyangwali refugee camp,
International Organization for Migration, IOM, Zenon Mukongo Nga,
France, Britain, Syria, Damascus, Homs,
James Mattis, Nikki Haley

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John J. Xenakis
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[Cynic Hero '86]

Its obvious that Boomer Ideologues Like JohnX, Pbrower, and Eric would only be satisfied if Assad is dead or in a prison cell, what's with Boomers and their Irrational Hostility to any outcome in Syria where Assad remains in power?