Generational Dynamics World View

[Hintergrund]

(07-12-2018, 05:29 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As for al-Assad, he's a sociopathic killer,
the worst genocidal monster so far this century.

Worse than the "caliph" of ISIS?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Jul-18 World View -- Fighting between Taliban and ISIS-K escalates in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS-K claims credit for killing 15 Taliban, including commander
  
• Fighting between Taliban and ISIS-K escalates in Afghanistan
  

****
**** ISIS-K claims credit for killing 15 Taliban, including commander
****


Afghan Taliban militants (AFP)

"ISIS Khorasan" (ISIS-K, "Wilayah Khorasan"), the Afghanistan branch
of ISIS, is claiming credit for attacking the house of a Taliban
commander in the eastern province of Nangarhar of Afghanistan, killing
15 Taliban militants, including the commander, known as Saba Gul or
Mohammad Khorasani.

Fighting between the Taliban and ISIS-K has significantly escalated in
recent weeks, as the vie for control of the country's east, along the
border with Pakistan. In June, ISIS-K claimed the killing of 25
people with a suicide bombing at a gathering of Taliban members and
local people in Nangarhar province during the three-day Eid
ceasefire.

The Taliban launched offensives in the region late in June, claiming
that they had cleared out bases of ISIS-K fighters in nearby villages.
Dozens of fighters on both sides were killed, as hundreds of civilians
were forced to flee the fighting between the two groups, as the
clashes carried on for several days.

One unnamed ISIS fighter was quoted as saying:

<QUOTE>"Yes the war between the Afghan Taliban and Islamic
State branch in Khorasan has escalated. More attacks and more
casualties, but in war there are casualties. [The Taliban] are
not able to get firm control over [the areas they recapture]
because soon they will be repelled back by the fighters of Islamic
State."<END QUOTE>

The Taliban in the past have been reluctant to publicize their clashes
with ISIS, believing it risks exaggerating the power of the group.
But that's changing now, as ISIS-K becomes more prominent.
An unnamed Taliban source says:

<QUOTE>"The Taliban hit ISIS fighters hard and finished their
presence in Laghman, while ISIS fighters were also killed in Kunar
and Nangarhar. The Taliban will deal with them with an iron hand
in future because they are exceeding their activities in the
region. ...

ISIS has presented a negative image of Islam and created an
environment of fear among the Muslims.

[ISIS attacked the Taliban] under the pretext of Islamic Shariah
law and calling Taliban apostates thus creating confusion among
the locals and other supporters of Afghan Taliban. In this way
they are paving the way for the US and allied forces to create
cracks in the unity of the Afghan Taliban, but so far they
failed."<END QUOTE>

The Taliban claim that ISIS fighters are distracting the Taliban from
completing their mission -- to defeat the US-led coalition. Reuters and The National (UAE)

****
**** Fighting between Taliban and ISIS-K escalates in Afghanistan
****

The Afghan government estimates that there are as many as 3,000
foreign fighters in ISIS-K in Afghanistan, many of them coming from
Pakistan and Uzbekistan. However, accurate estimates are difficult
because the Taliban and other militant groups are fluid, and
members often move from one group to another.

ISIS-K fighters began appearing in Afghanistan in 2015, when ISIS in
Syria and Iraq was considered highly stylish and fashionable among the
atrocity-committing set. Many Taliban militants switched allegiance
to ISIS because it was a better brand name, newer and more exciting.
They were joined by foreign fighters from Uzbekistan and other
countries. Starting in 2016, especially as ISIS came under attack in
Iraq and Syria, foreign fighters who had gone to Syria to fight
against Bashar al-Assad began to return to other countries, including
Afghanistan, to continue the fight.

It's not believed that there was ever much communication between
ISIS-K and ISIS leaders in Iraq and Syria, as the relationship is more
like a shared brand name. To some extent, there is a parallel between
Syria and Afghanistan, as local militants in the two countries join
al-Qaeda and the Taliban, respectively, while foreign fighters join
ISIS.

In both cases, the local and ISIS militants have conflicting
objectives. Generally speaking, the local militants have purely local
nationalist objectives, while the ISIS militants have the objective of
establishing a multinational caliphate.

In Syria, the local militant group is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and
they spent years fighting alongside moderate rebels to defeat Bashar
al-Assad. ISIS, on the other hand, established a caliphate in Raqqa
and took control of as much territory as possible, in Syria and Iraq.
Bashar al-Assad and its principal backers in Russia and Iran
indirectly supported ISIS by not targeting them, because ISIS was
fighting the moderate rebels who were also al-Assad's enemies. It was
left to the American forces, backing the Kurds and Iraqis, to finally
expel ISIS from Raqqa and Mosul, and that fight is still going on.

In Afghanistan, the situation is similar. The Taliban are radicalized
ethnic Pashtuns, fighting against their old enemies from the 1990s
civil war, the Northern Alliance of Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras.
ISIS-K are foreign fighters and disaffected Taliban fighters who have
pledged allegiance to ISIS in the name of the great multinational
caliphate fantasy. The Taliban, on the other hand, have set as their
primary objective forcing the US-led coalition to withdraw.

In terms of theology, ISIS considers the local nationalists to be
apostates, mainly because they make alliances with other ISIS enemies,
such as Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. However,
ISIS saves its strongest vitriol for the Shia Muslims, as in this
statement from January 2016:

<QUOTE>"Initiated by a sly Jew, [the Shia] are an apostate
sect drowning in worship of the dead, cursing the best companions
and wives of the Prophet, spreading doubt on the very basis of the
religion (the Koran and the Sunnah), defaming the very honor of
the Prophet , and preferring their “twelve” imams to the prophets
and even to Allah! ... Thus, the Rafidah [another word for Shias]
are mushrik [polytheist] apostates who must be killed wherever
they are to be found, until no Rafidi walks on the face of earth,
even if the jihad claimants despise such."<END QUOTE>

In Afghanistan, many analysts believe that ISIS poses a greater threat
today than the Taliban. There have been big spikes in terrorist
violence in the last few months, and this is attributed to a
competition between the two groups.

The strongest fighting force within the Taliban is the Haqqani
network, which has been blamed for the most audacious attacks in
Kabul. The Haqqani network has historical ties to Pakistan’s powerful
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency. VOA (18-Nov-2017) and Washington Post (21-Mar-2018) and The Diplomat (29-Jan-2016) and Military Times

Related Articles

• ISIS-K suicide bomber kills over 50 in Kabul, Afghanistan, registering to vote (23-Apr-2018)
  
  
• New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 (28-Jan-2018)
  
  
• New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan (01-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Nangarhar,
Amaq, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Raqqa, Iraq, Mosul,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbekistan,
ISIS Khorasan, Wilayah Khorasan, ISIS-K, ISKP, Pakistan,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jaysh al-Islam, Army of Islam

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

ISIS and the Taliban as enemies of each other? Wow!

[beechnut79]

(07-18-2018, 10:08 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: ISIS and the Taliban as enemies of each other? Wow!

But so were Russia and Red China.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Jul-18 World View -- Trump administration signals that trade war with China will escalate sharply

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Trump administration signals that trade war with China will escalate sharply
  
• The growing conflict with China
  

****
**** Trump administration signals that trade war with China will escalate sharply
****


Larry Kudlow, during Wednesday morning interview (CNBC)

Many people see the imposition of tariffs as temporary, and likely to
end before any serious problems arise. However, Larry Kudlow, Trump's
chief economic adviser, was interviewed on CNBC for half an hour on
Wednesday morning, and made it clear that the trade war with China is
likely to become a lot more serious.

Kudlow said that deals with Germany and Mexico are coming. He said
that "I can report without specifics that we're making good progress
[with trade negotiations] in Mexico." However, negotiations with
China are not progressing at all.

Kudlow listed the problems in trade with China (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"A. The world trading system is broken. The World
Trade Organization [WTO] is broken. We just had this discussion
at the G7.

B. The biggest culprit is China. And particularly since it
entered the WTO, which was about the year 2000 as I recall. China
has - they're still labeled an undeveloped third world country -
but at WTO that's nonsense. Therefore they're trying to use Most
Favored Nation status to have high tariffs, high non-tariff
barriers. ...

They do in fact steal our intellectual property left and right.
They do in fact have a forced transfer of technology, from the
American companies that operate there. It comes from the joint
ventures. They do not allow full American ownership.

You open a company on a joint venture basis, in a Chinese
province. And because you only own 49%, they own 51% or more, the
local party leaders, these are like Mafioso Dons, I'm told -- you
have to lay your entire blueprint on the table, including the
technology, and they will have their experts take it over. That's
wrong."<END QUOTE>

In the past few weeks, I've seen several businessmen interviewed about
opening up a business office in China, being forced to give copies of
all their software and intellectual property to the Chinese
government, and then having to go out of business because a Chinese
business opened up right an office right across the street using the
same intellectual property. The American company was simply swindled.
And this happens all the time to American countries, as well as
European and Canadian countries.

Kudlow said that the situation with China is so bad that he's been
forced to change his own position on trade. He was in government as
far back as the Reagan administration, and he's always been on record
as opposing tariffs, but "I've come to this position, because the
problem [with China] is getting worse."

The shocking part of the interview is the description of how
intransient the Chinese are during the negotiations that have been
going on for months. The interviewer (Jim Kramer) said that he had
been assuming all along that there had been progress in the
negotiations with China, with give and take on both sides, but Kudlow
referred to the "so-called talks" as if they had been nothing more
than a charade to the Chinese:

<QUOTE>"I went to Beijing with our team, and then when China
came to the US, I was involved in those discussions and a dinner,
I sat next to Liu He [Xi Jinping's top economic adviser], and his
young assistants, And I think they're sincere, so there's hope.

On the other hand, I do not think president Xi [Jinping] at the
moment has any intention of following through on the discussions
we've made, and I think the president [Trump] is so dissatisfied
with China on these so-called talks, that he is keeping the
pressure on, and I support that. ...

That stuff has to be fixed. We can't let China steal our
technology. Those are our family jewels. What is it that makes
America the greatest economy in the world? It is our innovative
and inventive use of technology advances. This is Schumpeter's
idea of creative destruction writ large. We can't let them do
that.

They haven't responded at all. Not one basis point to our request
to do something about the theft of intellectual property, and the
forced divestiture of our intellectual property."<END QUOTE>

Kudlow said, "By the way, the whole world agrees with us. I mean
Europe agrees with us, Canada, everyone knows this is true." He added
that he has many sources in China, and even they agree.

Kudlow concluded by saying that Trump will not back down on
this issue:

<QUOTE>"Now, for POTUS -- I'm going to defend him here, lock,
stock and barrel. We've had Republican and Democratic presidents
in the past, make these complaints to China, even take these
complaints to the World Trade Organization. But they never follow
through. They say it, nothing happens, life goes on, the
situation gets worse. This guy, President Trump, has the
biggest backbone -- and this something I've admired for him in
other places -- he will not let go of this point. Nor, should he,
in my opinion."<END QUOTE>

After the interview, the interviewer Jim Kramer said that he found the
interview shocking, because the Chinese are refusing to make any
compromises at all. He pointed to the recent case of the Chinese
company ZTE where President Trump had gone to a great deal of trouble
to keep the company from going bankrupt, based on a personal request
by President Xi. Kramer said that Trump must be really furious to
have gone to great lengths to do that, and got nothing in return from
Xi. CNBC and Reuters

****
**** The growing conflict with China
****

Larry Kudlow's interview on Wednesday was well-planned and well
thought out, and laid out major policy objectives of the Trump
administration. During the interview, there were often long pauses
between sentences as he chose his words carefully. Kudlow could have
simply made a general statement that the negotiations with China were
on track and "we hope something will come out of them soon."

Instead, in coordination with the White House, he made a careful
condemnation of China's trade practices and negotiating attitudes.
This was done on purpose, and it's a shot across the bow by the Trump
administration at President Xi and the Chinese Communist Party.

We live at a time in history where there's never been more hysterical
nonsense in the media, and there's never been more total, abject
ignorance about what's going on in the world.

One comment I've heard probably hundreds of times is: "How could Trump
give Kim Jong-un prestige by meeting with him in Singapore, without
getting a firm commitment in advance to denuclearize?" The question
doesn't even make sense. Demanding denuclearization in advance would
have been refused. Trump is a master negotiator and deal-maker, and
his assessment was that the only way to convince Kim to denuclearize
in the future is to build up his prestige in the present, and convince
him that the US is not an enemy.

It's worth noting here that, as I've been saying for many, many
months, there is no possibility whatsoever that North Korea will
denuclearize, now or in the future. But I'm not going to criticize
Trump for taking steps to try to prevent World War III, even if
preventing World War III is impossible.

A web site reader recently asked me:

<QUOTE>"I have to wonder whether you're serious or just
pulling my leg. What possible benefit is the ad hoc Trumpist
foreign policy to the US or the world at large? We need leverage
with the DPRK [North Korea], and the only leverage available is
China. Trump's solution: start at a trade war with them, and make
it bitter."<END QUOTE>

Once again, this question makes no sense. The leverage we have
against North Korea is the very harsh sanctions that Trump imposed on
North Korea, with China's cooperation. China's cooperation was a huge
foreign policy decision by China, requiring buy-in from many agencies
in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), based on deeply entrenched
objectives that won't change because of this trade dispute. In
addition, master negotiator Trump gained leverage over Xi by agreeing
to his request to save ZTE.

What I've seen repeatedly since Trump has been in office is that his
foreign policy is completely consistent with the Generational Dynamics
analyses that I've been posting for years -- that we're headed for a
world war with China, and Russia will be our ally and China's enemy.
Trump understands these analyses through Steve Bannon, who is an
expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics. People who
become hysterical because of a tweet or a press conference really have
no clue what's going on in the world, but what I've seen is that Trump
does -- based on actions, not words.

As I said above, Trump is well aware that we're headed for a world
war with China, and he's trying to prevent him. Preventing it
is impossible, but I'm not going to criticize Trump for trying.

In writing this article, I've described many bottom lines and many red
lines. North Korea will not denuclearize. China will not back down
from stealing America's intellectual property. And Trump will not
back down from the trade dispute. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, we're a typical tit for tat escalation sequence
that leads to a generational crisis war. The only other choice is
appeasement, and that will lead to war as well, possibly even more
quickly. Trump is aware of all this, and he's trying to prevent it,
but it's the world that's upside down and out of control. Bloomberg

Related Articles:

• China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing for war (20-May-2018)
  
  
• North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks (08-Jul-2018)
  
  
• After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details (14-Jun-2018)
  
  
• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Generational Dynamics (07-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, Larry Kudlow,
China, Xi Jinping, World Trade Organization, WTO,
Jim Kramer, North Korea, Kim Jong-un

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Tim Randal Walker]

I expect that Trump will slap tariffs on two categories of countries, and make them stick:

1. Countries with which the U.S. has had humongous trade deficits (such as China).

2. Countries that practice protectionism against the United States (which may include non-tariff barriers).

Bear in mind that Globalization was a 3T trend......

[Tim Randal Walker]

One thing to watch is Japan's military build up. This includes new fighter jets, aircraft carriers, and land based anti-ship missiles.

[pbrower2a]

(07-18-2018, 11:26 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: One thing to watch is Japan's military build up.  This includes new fighter jets, aircraft carriers, and land based anti-ship missiles.

Should a democratic Japan, armed to the teeth, end up in some replay of its war with America -- this time a dictatorial America with no friends -- Japan will maul the American regime so badly as to destabilize it. The Japanese prime minister just might get to dictate terms of peace in the White House. Maybe they would annex Alaska as a new prefecture and establish commonwealth status for Hawaii, and install some Canadian-style dominion out of Washington, Oregon, and California.

The Japanese legal system treats criminals harshly, and it would treat American war criminals as harshly as America treated Japanese war criminals in the last war. Japanese gangsters frequently emigrate for easier places in which to do organized crime, and not because the cir destinations are richer.

A hint: the aircraft of WWII were propeller aircraft, and not jets. Missiles were not part of the Japanese arsenal in WWII. Japan is not a country to mess with as a military power.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Awhile back I noticed a web site which suggested a coming competition between China and Japan-that Southeast Asia will become contested between China and Japan.

[JDG 66]

(07-11-2018, 02:49 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-11-2018, 01:54 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(07-02-2018, 07:46 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(07-02-2018, 03:39 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   Really?  Stalin and Mao are hardly exemplars of the left.

...in the 60s, they were all walking around carrying a book of Mao's Thoughts in the back pockets.

Then when people like me are proved right, and people like you are proved wrong, that's when you say -- "Stalin and Mao are hardly exemplars of the left."  Well yes they are, or they were, until you changed your mind for convenience.

The same is true of Chavez.  All the leftist idiots were in love with Chavez when he was destroying Venezuela, and people like me were saying that he was a disaster.  Now it turns out that I was right and people like you were disastrously wrong, and all these loony left idiot celebrities and politicians no longer want to talk about Venezuela...

Let's see. Che, and Castro leap to mind. And the Sandinistas. I have an 1990s Rand McNally Atlas which sings the praises of Dr. Robert Mugabe. The entire period from the Summer of 1972 to November 1989 consisted of the Left claiming moral equality between the US and the USSR.

Cites?  Oh yeah, you don't do those.  Well let me put in a quick word: projection.  I'm sure you can find a LW radical somewhere to cite, but you'll never find anyone in the class of Timothy McVeigh.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_bombing

BTW, what does any of this have to do with cities, Mr. H??

[JDG 66]

(07-17-2018, 10:48 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 18-Jul-18 World View -- Fighting between Taliban and ISIS-K escalates in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS-K claims credit for killing 15 Taliban, including commander
  
• Fighting between Taliban and ISIS-K escalates in Afghanistan
  

****
**** ISIS-K claims credit for killing 15 Taliban, including commander
****


Afghan Taliban militants (AFP)

"ISIS Khorasan" (ISIS-K, "Wilayah Khorasan"), the Afghanistan branch
of ISIS, is claiming credit for attacking the house of a Taliban
commander in the eastern province of Nangarhar of Afghanistan, killing
15 Taliban militants, including the commander, known as Saba Gul or
Mohammad Khorasani.

Fighting between the Taliban and ISIS-K has significantly escalated in
recent weeks...

Good. Sort of like WWII on the Eastern Front or the Iran-Iraq War. Root for maximum fatalities on both sides. Too bad for the innocent people stuck in between. I guess it's unlikely that they could kill each other quickly and leave everyone else alone...

[David Horn]

(07-19-2018, 12:43 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(07-11-2018, 02:49 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-11-2018, 01:54 PM)JDG 66 Wrote: Let's see. Che, and Castro leap to mind. And the Sandinistas. I have an 1990s Rand McNally Atlas which sings the praises of Dr. Robert Mugabe. The entire period from the Summer of 1972 to November 1989 consisted of the Left claiming moral equality between the US and the USSR.

Cites?  Oh yeah, you don't do those.  Well let me put in a quick word: projection.  I'm sure you can find a LW radical somewhere to cite, but you'll never find anyone in the class of Timothy McVeigh. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_bombing  

BTW, what does any of this have to do with cities, Mr. H??

Two comments:

1. A cite (or really, several) for the 17 year period in bold.  I doubt you'll find anything other than fringe groups, but carry on.
   
2. Anarchists are neither left or right, but merely anti-authoritarian in the extreme -- libertarians without limits.
   

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Jul-18 World View -- Ireland hiring 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors for hard Brexit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain's government in chaos as no-deal 'hard Brexit' looms
  
• Ireland border problem continues to be insurmountable
  
• IMF warns of harsh economic effects of no-deal Brexit
  

****
**** Britain's government in chaos as no-deal 'hard Brexit' looms
****


Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in House of Commons says that 'the government has sunk in a mire of chaos and division'

Ireland's Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar says that Ireland
will have to hire about 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors by
2021 in the case of a "hard Brexit," which is appearing to be more and
more likely every day.

As the UK continues to move toward the Brexit cliff-edge on March 29,
2019, it's not possible to discern the current status of the UK-EU
negotiations on the subject, because it's in total chaos, and even if
you did figure it out, then you'd have to figure it out again a minute
later.

Two weeks ago, UK prime minister Theresa May appeared to have achieved
stability with something that's now called "the Chequers plan,"
because she was able to get it approved by her Tory cabinet at a
meeting at Chequers, the prime minister's country residence. The
proposal specified that a "common rule book" between the EU and the UK
would be created. This was to be enough to satisfy the "Remainer"
faction of her party, those in the party who never wanted Brexit in
the first place but who could live with a set of rules that would make
it seem that the UK had never left the EU.

However, it ended up angering the "Leave" or "Brexiteer" faction, who
did want the UK to leave the EU, because the common rule book would
force the UK would to follow all the same standards and regulations as
it had never left the EU. So, even though May's cabinet voted for the
Chequers plan, four days later David Davis, the Brexit secretary
resigned. That resignation was followed by a second one, by
international superstar Boris Johnson.

Then late last week, May was forced to accept four amendments to the
Chequers plan, demanded by the Leave faction of the Tories. With so
many flip-flops, it looked like the plan was dead. But on Thursday,
Theresa May denied claims the trade proposals were "dead in the water"
after accepting the four amendments.

So, as of today, it's not clear whether May could get agreement within
her own Tory party. If she succeeds, she's have to get agreement of
the House of Commons. If she succeeds, she'd have to get agreement
from the other 27 nations of the European Union. (An additional issue
is that Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn is being seriously accused of
anti-Semitism. This is apparently a big story, and it's causing chaos
in the Labor party that may spill over into the chaos of the Brexit
negotiations.)

There are still other proposals floating around, but the important
point is that there is no proposal, including the Chequers proposal,
that is likely to get a majority vote. If no proposal can get a
majority vote, then when the UK "crashes out of" the EU on March 29,
it will be a "no-deal Brexit," otherwise known as a "hard Brexit."
Nobody (or almost nobody) wants a hard Brexit, but many analysts now
consider that to be the most likely outcome. BBC and Irish Times and BBC (9-Jul)

****
**** Ireland border problem continues to be insurmountable
****

After 16 months of debate since the Brexit referendum passed, there is
one particular problem has proven to be unsolvable: The status of the
border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK and the
Republic of (Southern) Ireland, which is part of the EU.

Everyone wants a "soft border" between the two regions, but if the UK
is no longer in the EU, then any people and goods passing over the
border would have to go through customs, have the passports and visas
checked, and possibly pay customs duties and fees. No one wants this,
but there is no solution to this problem. Solutions that have been
proposed include:

• Some sort of high-tech solution that uses sensors to check
  goods and passports as vehicles are zipping across the border. This
  is completely a political fantasy.
  
  
• Keep Ireland and Northern Ireland as a single customs union, but
  then have a customs border in the Irish Sea. This means that goods
  and services passing between Ireland+Northern Ireland on the one hand,
  and England+Wales+Scotland on the other hand would have to have
  passports and visas checked, and pay customs duties and fees. This
  could work, but everyone really hates it. Furthermore, it would
  encourage the Catholic Republicans in Northern Ireland to declare that
  Northern Ireland should seced from the UK and be part of Ireland,
  possibly igniting a new war in Ireland.
  
  
• For several months, a mythical "Ireland Backstop" proposal has
  been floating around. It's never been clearly defined, but it appears
  to be the same as the "Irish Sea" proposal above, except that it would
  be time-limited in some way.

None of these has a high probability of succeeding. So that's why
Ireland's Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar is making plans to
hire about 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors, to prepare
Irish seaports and airports for the change of rules in case of a hard
Brexit:

<QUOTE>"That involves preparing for and hiring veterinary
inspectors to carry out sanitary checks on agricultural products
and plant-based products coming in from Britain and also customs
inspectors.

We estimate we will have to hire about 1,000 customs and
veterinary inspectors to prepare our ports and airports for
Brexit.

In the unlikely event of a no-deal Brexit next March, of course it
will not be possible to have 1,000 people in place for then but we
will make contingency arrangements in the event that might
arise."<END QUOTE>

Varadkar also warned that UK planes could be restricted from flying in
EU airspace in the event of a no deal Brexit. He said UK could not
take back its waters and expect to use EU skies. "You can't have your
cake and eat it," he said. RTE (Ireland) and Irish Times and Business Insider (3-Jun)

****
**** IMF warns of harsh economic effects of no-deal Brexit
****

And International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis of Brexit finds that
that EU countries would lose 1.5% of their GDP and more than a million
jobs, in the case of a no-deal Brexit. Ireland would be worst hit,
losing 4% of its economy, due to its close trade ties with Britain The
Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg would also be hit hard, with
. Germany would also suffering due to industrial supply chains.

The IMF did not estimate the costs to Britain, but an earlier Bank of
England analysis put the cost at 1.5-2.0% of the economy, while other
estimates put the figure at 4%. Reuters and International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements (09-May-2018)
  
  
• Ireland border issue continues to confound Brexit negotiations (17-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
  

KEYS:

Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Leo Varadkar, Brexit, EU, UK,
Theresa May, Chequers, David Davis, Boris Johnson,
Jeremy Corbyn, Ireland Backstop, International Monetary Fund, IMF

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John J. Xenakis
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Jul-18 World View -- The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs on everything imported from China
  
• China's Foreign Ministry gives a vitriolic response to Trump
  
• The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China
  
• North Korea denuclearization talks appear to be falling apart
  

****
**** Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs on everything imported from China
****


Donald Trump

In an interview broadcast on Friday, president Donald Trump sharply
escalated the rhetoric in the trade war with China, and threatened to
impose tariffs on everything imported from China. China responded to
the threat with a vitriolic statement calling Trump a "wrecking ball."
As I wrote a couple of days ago, the trade war with China will
escalate. ( "19-Jul-18 World View -- Trump administration signals that trade war with China will escalate sharply"
)

On Friday, Trump said that in order to match some of the tariffs that
China imposes on US products, he's already announced tariffs on $50
billion in Chinese products. He said in the interview (my
transcription):

<QUOTE>"I raised 50, and they matched us. 11:02 I said, you
don't match us, you can't match us, because otherwise we're always
going to be behind the eight ball....

I'm ready to go to 500."<END QUOTE>

Tariffs on $500 billion would include all products imported from
China.

Trump described how this situation began in the Clinton, Bush and
Obama administrations:

<QUOTE>"Look I'm not doing this for politics. I'm doing this
to do the right thing for our country. We've been ripped off by
China for a long time. And I told that to president Xi. I said
how did this ever happen?

And you know what happened? And you know what their answer is?
because I deal with the highest echelons of china. One of the
great people of China said, "There was never anybody that talked
to us in the United States. We would put on a trade barrier,
where you couldn't sell cars, or you couldn't sell beef, or you
couldn't sell your farm products, nobody would talk to us in the
United States.

"So we said that's great. Then we put on another one. We'd put on
a tariff on cars, 25%, and you charge us virtually nothing 2 1/2
per cent, but they don't pay it. So we would do this, and nobody
would talk. We'd start off at a lower number, we'd raise it, we'd
raise it, nobody would every complain, until you came along." Me.
And they said, "Now you're doing more than complaining, we don't
like what you're doing." They think maybe we're doing too
much."<END QUOTE>

It's widely believed that we're on the verge of a full-blown trade war
with China, which was already clear from my article
two days ago. CNBC and New York Magazine and Guardian (London)

****
**** China's Foreign Ministry gives a vitriolic response to Trump
****

China's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hua Chunying gave her regular press
conference on Friday, and said the following in response to a question
about trade:

<QUOTE>"Third, everyone is watching when the US side behaves
like this in international relations, and everyone is hearing and
seeing what the US officials are saying and doing. So, we all know
what the whole world thinks of the US. It is quite obvious that
some people in the US are so obsessed with their conjured-up
reality that they simply cannot be waken up. However, by
brandishing its wanton and striking indiscriminately while
depriving others' right to self-defense, by blocking its own door
while demanding others to unconditionally open theirs wider, by
overriding others' interests and the international rules to serve
its own political needs and selfish interests, the US has really
taught us something in a piercing and profound way. I have noted
that many US citizens and its allies have spoken out
unreservedly. The US is now the biggest wrecking ball to world
stability and certainty. Its unilateralism and protectionism pose
the greatest threat to the international rules and the world
economic order.

I said the other day that knowing someone is intelligence but
knowing oneself is real wisdom. Today I want to add that nothing
could be more disastrous than chaos. As the No.1 power in today's
world, the US should at least think about its responsibility
before making relevant policies or saying or doing anything,
because it is the "order" of the world that they are expected to
promote, not "chaos"."<END QUOTE>

Hua's most significant statement was: "However, by brandishing its
wanton and striking indiscriminately while depriving others' right to
self-defense, by blocking its own door while demanding others to
unconditionally open theirs wider, by overriding others' interests and
the international rules to serve its own political needs and selfish
interests, the US has really taught us something in a piercing and
profound way."

I believe that the reference to "depriving others' right to
self-defense" refers to America's freedom of navigation operations in
the South China Sea, where China's activities were declared illegal in
2016 by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the
Hague, which ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal and in violation of international law.
With regard to promoting "chaos," the Chinese
must be aware that they've infuriated all their neighbors by their
illegal activities.

China's appeal to "international law" is laughable, because China only
cares about international law when it favors them. When it doesn't
favor them, as in the case of the South China Sea, they claim that
they're superior to everyone else, and their law supersedes
international law. The same is true in trade. China has repeatedly
violated and ignored World Trade Organization rules, but they complain
about international law to gain an advantage.

In an interview Friday, Trump's chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow
suggested that China will retaliate against individual American
companies doing business in China:

<QUOTE>"My guess is that if the plot thickens with no
progress, they will start going after American companies
[operating] in China....

The problem here is Xi. He doesn’t want to move, and they’ve
offered the U.S. absolutely ... no options regarding the issue of
[intellectual property] theft and forced technology
transfer."<END QUOTE>

China could target individual American companies through new
regulations.

Trump is not going to back down. And, based on the vitriolic
intensity of Hua Chunying's statement, China is not going to back down
either.

As I wrote in my recent article,

from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the US and China are
in a generational Crisis era, in a tit for tat escalation sequence
that leads to a full-blown generational crisis war. It's clear from
remarks by Trump, Hua and Kudlow that that's exactly where we're
headed. Foreign Ministry of China and Axios

****
**** The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China
****

Donald Trump and Russia's president Vladimir Putin had a private one
on one meeting during their July 16 summit meeting in Helsinki. As
usual, the mainstream media, who have absolutely no clue what's going
on in the world, have been screaming hysterically, some suggesting
that Trump should be tried and convicted of treason, and then
executed. Others demanded that the American interpreter who sat in on
the meeting should be subpoenaed and forced to testify, something that
would trigger enormous international diplomatic issues.

Trump tweeted on Thursday that he would like to schedule a second
meeting with Putin in the fall, this time in Washington. This drew
further hysterical screaming, along with demands that no such meeting
be permitted unless Trump fully describes what happened in the first
meeting.

In his CNBC interview on Friday, Trump gave a brief description of his
summit meeting with Putin:

<QUOTE>"We had a tremendous discussion on many things --
terrorism, Syria, the Middle East overall, Iran, we talked about
as an example nuclear proliferation -- to me there's nothing more
important than that.

We had a tremendous meeting. I think it was a very good press
conference, except for the fake news I think I did very well at
the press conference."<END QUOTE>

As I wrote in my previous article,

Trump is very well aware that we're headed for a world war against
China. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this war
cannot be prevented. Trump is taking whatever steps he can to prevent
this war, and I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to
prevent a world war, even if the war cannot be prevented.

Vladimir Putin is also well aware that Russia is headed for a war with
China. The Russian and Chinese people have hated each other for
centuries, especially since Russia, after conquest by Genghis Khan,
became a vassal state of the China and the Mongol Empire for
centuries. ( "31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China"
)

So today, both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are aware that their
countries are going to be allies in world war launched by China.

When they had their private summit meeting on July 16, it's
inconceivable that they didn't discuss this oncoming war, and how they
would defend themselves and help defend each other.

That also explains why there's so much secrecy about the meeting. Any
mention that Trump and Putin discussed plans for a world war launched
by China would cause a massive international uproar. So the subject
of the private meeting must be kept secret. But with so much at stake
for the United States, Russia, and the rest of the world, it's
inconceivable that they didn't discuss this subject when they had the
chance. And it will be all to the good for them to have another
meeting in the fall, for further discussions on this subject.
The Hill

Related Articles:

• Trump administration signals that trade war with China will escalate sharply (19-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China (31-Mar-2018)
  
  
• China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing for war (20-May-2018)
  
  
• China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America (27-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue (21-Jun-2015)
  
  
• The 'New Normal': Russia and China annex other countries' territories with impunity (22-Mar-2014)
  

****
**** North Korea denuclearization talks appear to be falling apart
****

As I've been writing for many months, there is absolutely no
possibility whatsoever that North Korea is going to denuclearize,
either now or in the future.

On Friday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and U.S. Ambassador to the
United Nations Nikki Haley criticized both China and Russia for
helping North Korea violate United Nations sanctions as the regime
smuggles in more oil than is allowed.

According to Pompeo, "When sanctions are not enforced, the prospects
for the successful denuclearization of North Korea are diminished."

It's been nearly six weeks after President Trump's summit with Kim
Jong-un, and there are no signs whatsoever, that the North Koreans
have any intention of denuclearizing. ABC News

Related Articles:

• North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks (08-Jul-2018)
  
  
• After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details (14-Jun-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Donald Trump, China,
Xi Jinping, Hua Chunying, South China Sea,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
World Trade Organization, Larry Kudlow,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Helsinki, Genghis Khan, Mongol Empire,
Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, North Korea, Kim Jong-un

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Jul-18 World View -- Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out
  
• Fears grow that Bashar al-Assad will attack 2.5 million people in Idlib
  

****
**** Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out
****


Erdogan and Putin have phone call last week to discuss situation in Idlib

The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is declaring a major
victory over the rebel forces in the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in
southern Syria, in the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra. The Syrian
army, backed by barrages of air strikes from Russian warplanes, forced
the FSA to accept reconciliation agreements that permitted them to be
evacuated in a convoy of 40 busses to camps that had been set up in
Idlib and Aleppo provinces in northern Syria. Under the agreement,
the FSA fighters gave up their heavy weapons.

About 4,000 people are expected to be evacuated in the next three
days. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) is urging all parties to provide
safe passage for the estimated 140,000 civilians displaced by the
Syrian assault.

The Syrian army victory in Daraa and Quneitra appears to have been
achieved much more quickly than the victories in Aleppo and Ghouta.
In all three cases, the FSA opposition fighters and their families
were finally allowed to give up their heavy weapons and be evacuated
to Idlib. But in the most recent case, it almost appears to be a
scripted event, where both sides fought for a little while, and then
the FSA fighters were allowed to evacuate very quickly. Al-Jazeera and Al-Masdar (Damascus) and Anadolu (Turkey) and Al-Monitor

****
**** Fears grow that Bashar al-Assad will attack 2.5 million people in Idlib
****

Some newspaper reports have been claiming that the victory in Daraa
and Quneitra means that the war is over. I can't see how that's even
remotely possible.

With help from Russia and Iran, Bashar al-Assad is now in control of
most of Syria but anti-Assad rebels still control Idlib in the
northwest, while a Kurdish-led militia controls the northeast and a
large chunk of the east.

In Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa and Quneitra, the war was settled when
thousands of FSA fighters and their families were evacuated to Idlib.
In all of these cases, there are villages that are now ghost towns
because all the inhabitants have been evacuated to Idlib. This was
actually the objective of Bashar al-Assad, who was practicing genocide
and ethnic cleansing on the opposition, and now that they've left the
villages empty, al-Assad can start filling those villages with people
from his own Shia/Alawite clan.

But what about Idlib itself? It has 2.5 million people, roughly half
of whom were evacuated there from other theatres. Bashar al-Assad has
repeatedly said that his army will retake control of Idlib. This
automatically means that the war is far from over.

But more important is how one analyst described the situation: There
is no Idlib for Idlib.

What that means was in the other regions, FSA fighters could be
evacuated to Idlib, but for the coming battle over Idlib, there's no
other place to which families can be evacuated. All 2.5 million
people are trapped in there.

Turkey is expressing great concern about al-Assad's plans for Idlib.
Idlib's northern western border is Turkey, its northern border is the
Syrian district of Afrin, which is under Turkey's control, and its
eastern border is adjacent to Aleppo.

Panos Moumtzis, the U.N.’s regional humanitarian coordinator said last
month:

<QUOTE>"We worry about 2.5 million people becoming displaced
more and moving towards Turkey. These people have nowhere to go in
Syria. We may have not yet seen the worst in Syria."<END QUOTE>

And that's a matter of great concern to Turkey. Al-Assad will get
started with his usual genocide and ethnic cleansing tactics,
performed with missiles, barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas, all
particularly targeting women and children, as well as schools,
markets, and hospitals. Hundreds of thousands of people will try to
flee across the border into Turkey. Jordan and Israel kept their
borders closed to refugees in the recent offensive in Daraa and
Quneitra, and Turkey may do the same in the coming offensive in Idlib.
At the very least, this will create an enormous humanitarian disaster,
and may even lead to war between Syria and Turkey.

During peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, in May 2017, Turkey, Russia
and Iran – agreed to establish de-escalation zones in Idlib, and
enforce ceasefires. The de-escalation zones turned out to be a joke,
since Russia ignored them, and al-Assad just used them as cover
further genocidal attacks. As soon as any opposition individual was
violent in any way, al-Assad would declare that everyone in the region
was a terrorist, to be obliterated.

On July 14, last weekend, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Russia's president Vladimir Putin had a phone call, in which Erdogan
is reported to have told Putin that if the al-Assad regime forces
advance toward Idlib, then the Astana agreement would dissipate.
Whether "dissipate" means that the Turks would withdraw or wage war is
not clear. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Reuters and Al-Masdar (Damascus)


Related Articles

• Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta (23-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination (07-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hug and declare the end of war in Syria (27-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Syria and Russia see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' after Aleppo victory (18-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria (02-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Turkey, Tayyip Recep Erdogan, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Daraa, Quneitra,
Aleppo, Idlib, Ghouta, Panos Moumtzis, Afrin

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

LOL, Assad is brutally crushing the rebels using gloves off rebels and is determined to maintain his government and order in Syria. That is his goal, Not your assertions that he has an almost sexual desire to eliminate Sunni cities and replace them with Shiite ones. The Sunni Cities are targeted because that is where the rebel strongholds are at, not because they are Sunni. After the battles, order is then restored in the cities.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Jul-18 World View -- ISIS-K bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan, targets returning vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS-K bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan, targets returning vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum
  
• ISIS-K claims credit for bomb targeting Uzbek warlord General Dostum
  

****
**** ISIS-K bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan, targets returning vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum
****


Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, Afghan vice president and Uzbek warlord, arrives in Kabul on Sunday, greeted by hundreds of supporters (Reuters)

Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, the vice president of Afghanistan, returned
to Kabul in a chartered plane on Sunday, after a year in exile in
Turkey. Hundreds of his supporters, including high ranking officials,
had gathered to welcome him home.

He gave a short speech, and then shortly after his motorcade left the
Kabul airport, a terrorist bomb struck at the airport, killing at
least 14 people, and injuring dozens.

The reason that he was in exile was because he was accused in 2016
assaulting a political opponent, Ahmad Eshchi, a former governor.
Eshchi claimed in 2016:

<QUOTE>"I took Gen. Dostum’s hand and greeted him [at the
Buzkashi grounds]. From that point, he started abusing me
verbally. He told me that he knows what I have done. He told me he
knows what my son has done. Who will look for you if I kill you
here. I will throw you under the horses and do Buzkashi on you. He
called on his bodyguards and told them to grab me and beat me. He
[Dostum] lay me on the ground and put his foot on my
neck."<END QUOTE>

He claimed that Dostum ordered his bodyguards to beat him up, and then
Dostum threatened to kill him and sexually assaulted him.

Dostum left Afghanistan early in 2017 under pressure from Afghanistan
aid donors, including the United States. Dostum denied Eshchi's
accusations but, amid international demands that he face justice to
show that powerful political leaders were not above the law, he left
the country in May last year, saying he needed to seek medical
treatment in Turkey. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Australian Broadcasting and Tolo News (2016)

****
**** ISIS-K claims credit for bomb targeting Uzbek warlord General Dostum
****

The Taliban have disavowed any involvement in the bombing, which was
almost certainly a failed attempt to assassinate vice president Abdul
Rashid Dostum. However, "ISIS Khorasan" (ISIS-K, "Wilayah Khorasan"),
the Afghanistan branch of ISIS, took credit for the bombing on the
ISIS public relations web site.

In addition to being Afghanistan's current vice president, Dostum is
an Uzbek warlord with a very bloody history. During the 1980s
invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union, Dostum was first an ally
of the Soviets, and then switched sides and fought the Soviets.
During the very bloody Afghan civil war of the 1990s, Dostum led an
Afghan army and switched sides in that war two times.

Every ethnic civil war, certainly including the Afghan civil war, is
filled atrocities, including torture, slaughter, rape, sexual assault,
and mutilation, as a matter of course. So the description of the
"conversation" that Dostum had with Ahmad Eshchi described above is
unverified, but is certainly not implausible.

Afghanistan's president, Ashraf Ghani, selected Dostum to be his vice
presidential running mate in the 2014 presidential election, in order
to appeal to ethnic Uzbek voters. Dostum is credited with delivering
the ethnic Uzbek vote, and being a big factor in Ghani's victory. The
next presidential election will take place in 2019, and it's thought
that Ghani will try to rehabilitate Dostum in time for that election.

While in Turkey, Dostum formed an alliance with two other powerful
leaders, Atta Mohammad Noor, a major force among ethnic Tajiks and
Mohammad Mohaqiq, a leader of the Hazara minority, both of whom joined
him in Kabul on Sunday. These three ethnic groups -- Uzbeks, Tajiks
and Hazaras -- played major roles in the Northern Alliance that
defeated the Taliban with United States support in the Afghan war that
followed 9/11/2001.

The Taliban consist almost entirely of radicalized ethnic Pashtuns,
which is also the ethnicity of Ghani. So Ghani's choice of Dostum as
vice president represents an attempt to appeal to ethnic groups across
the entire spectrum.

That brings us back to ISIS-K, the Afghanistan branch of ISIS. ( "18-Jul-18 World View -- Fighting between Taliban and ISIS-K escalates in Afghanistan"
)

The Taliban and ISIS-K are both jihadist groups, but they have
entirely different goals. The Taliban say that their goal is simply
to get all foreign troops -- the US-led coalition -- to leave
Afghanistan. However, that doesn't explain their frequent terror
attacks on Hazaras and other hated ethnic groups that the Pashtuns
fought in the 1990s civil war.

ISIS-K have different stated objectives. Theologically, they consider
the Taliban to be apostates, because they make alliances with secular
governments, such as the government of Afghanistan. ISIS-K, along
with ISIS in Syria and Iraq, have stated that their goals are to
create the world's greatest Caliphate, eliminating all secular
governments.

So that explains the most likely reason why ISIS-K, which contains
Uzbeks as well as other ethnic groups, is taking credit for targeting
the Uzbek vice president, General Abdul Rashid Dostum. AP and BBC and Toronto Star (1-Feb) and Afghan Bios

Related Articles

• Fighting between Taliban and ISIS-K escalates in Afghanistan (18-Jul-2018)
  
  
• ISIS-K suicide bomber kills over 50 in Kabul, Afghanistan, registering to vote (23-Apr-2018)
  
  
• New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 (28-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Ashraf Ghani,
Abdul Rashid Dostum, Ahmad Eshchi, Turkey,
Atta Mohammad Noor, Mohammad Mohaqiq,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbekistan,
ISIS Khorasan, Wilayah Khorasan, ISIS-K, ISKP

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Jul-18 World View -- Australia sends refugees to Taiwan hospitals to keep them from Australian soil

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia sends refugees to Taiwan hospitals to keep them from Australian soil
  
• Once secret refugee deal sends refugees to Taiwan's hospital
  

****
**** Australia sends refugees to Taiwan hospitals to keep them from Australian soil
****


The East Lorengau Refugee Transit Center on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea (AP)

The government of Australia recently revealed a previously secret
agreement with Taiwan, allowing refugees and asylum seekers in
detention but requiring hospitalization to be sent to Taiwan's
hospitals, rather than to Australia's hospitals.

On July 19, 2013, then prime minister Kevin Rudd signed an agreement
with Papua New Guinea (PNG) called "the regional resettlement
agreement." Under this agreement, refugees and asylum seekers
arriving by boat without a visa would be sent to Manus Island in PNG,
and would have "no chance" of being resettled in Australia as
refugees. Another agreement signed with Nauru provided for refugees
to be send to refugee centers there as well.

Last week was the five year anniversary of that agreement. It's
estimated that there are almost 800 refugees in the male-only
facilities in Papua New Guinea and almost 900 men, women and children
in Nauru.

The policy has been extremely controversial, and has been opposed by
humanitarian organizations, who claim that the refugee centers in PNG
and Nauru are filthy and unsafe, with numerous stories of beatings,
torture and sexual abuse.

Despite the objections from activists, the policy has been extremely
successful in meeting its objectives. While there had previously been
tens of thousands of "boat people" per year arriving in Australia,
that number has been reduced to almost none, because refugees know
that they will be transferred to one of the offshore detention
centers. Australian officials claim that thousands of refugees'
lives have been saved, since they didn't attempt the risky boat trip
with human traffickers.

One of the loopholes in the policy had to do with treating serious
illnesses among the refugees. If the refugee or a family member
requires hospitalization, then there was no choice but to transfer him
to a hospital on Australian soil.

Once on Australian soil, the vast majority have been able to stay
indefinitely by preparing applications for High Court injunctions
against their return. The court has yet to hear a case, apparently
for fear of a ruling that would grant permanent asylum within
Australia to a much larger group of asylum seekers. Instead, the
government has avoided court cases by granting these refugees bridging
visas that permit them to stay without a court case.

However, last month, a 14 year old girl in a Nauru detention center
from Iran who had attempted suicide was moved under court order, along
with her family, to a psychiatric hospital in Australia. The case was
about to be heard in federal court but, just as proceedings commenced,
the Australian government agreed to move her and her family to
Australia.

The United Nations human rights agency has repeatedly condemned as
arbitrary and illegal Australia's indefinite detention of
refugees. The longest in detention is an Afghan asylum seeker, who has
been held in Australian detention centers continuously since 2009.
According to Australian human rights lawyer Alison Battisson

<QUOTE>"Australia’s policies are against international law
and are inhumane,” she said. “In a modern society this practice is
unacceptable. Despite numerous opinions and reports from the UN
and other human rights bodies, Australia has consistently failed
to address arbitrary detention."<END QUOTE>

Battison adds: "The Australian government’s lack of response is
shameful. It is also insulting to the UN." Catholic Outlook and AP and Guardian (London)

****
**** Once secret refugee deal sends refugees to Taiwan's hospital
****

Last month, it was revealed that in September of last year, Taiwan and
Australia had signed a secret deal to send asylum seekers from Nauru
to Taiwan for medical treatment.

According to Taiwan's foreign minister Joseph Wu, the refugees will
receive medical care, and will return to Nauru after recovering, with
all expenses paid by Australia's government:

<QUOTE>"We are offering our cutting-edge medical technology
to help these poor refugees. They are all part of a deal we made
with the Australian government. ...

This is something we in Taiwan should be proud of. We are sharing
our medical resources with other countries and these unfortunate
people."<END QUOTE>

Under the agreement, Taiwan Adventist Hospital has received ten
refugees so far, starting in January. Australia's Home Affairs
Department spokesman said that Taiwan was "consistently ranked as
having some of the best hospitals and medical technology in the
world."

Australian officials apparently had been talking to several Pacific
countries to make this kind of deal. Taiwan was chosen because of its
political predicament -- China is a member of the United Nations, but
Taiwan is not. Since Taiwan is not a UN member, it is therefore not a
signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, meaning it is not
automatically bound to hear asylum applications. Therefore, the
refugees cannot claim protection in Taiwan, and can be returned to
Nauru. Sydney Morning Herald (22-Jun) and Focus Taiwan (26-Jun) and Lowy Interpreter (Australia)

Related Articles

• A 'powderkeg' as Australia closes refugee camp and refugees refuse to leave (31-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Australia to send 'boat people' to Papua New Guinea (21-Jul-2013)
  
  
• Australia will pay $100K each to asylum seekers in Manus Island immigration camp (15-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Papua New Guinea Supreme Court bombshell throws Australia's refugee policy into chaos (30-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Hundreds of Australian migrants to be resettled in the United States (11-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever' (06-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Taiwan,
Papua New Guinea, PNG, Manus Island, Nauru, Kevin Rudd,
Joseph Wu, Taiwan Adventist Hospital, Alison Battisson

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Jul-18 World View -- Defector in Kazakhstan reveals explosive information about China's 'reeducation centers'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Defector in Kazakhstan reveals explosive information about China's 'reeducation centers'
  
• The explosive testimony: thousands of Kazakhs in China's reeducation camps
  
• China's 'reeducation centers' are described as torture centers
  

****
**** Defector in Kazakhstan reveals explosive information about China's 'reeducation centers'
****


Sayragul Sauytbay, enclosed in a glass cage in courtroom, awaiting trial (AFP)

A defector from China, who is on trial in Kazakhstan for breaking the
law by crossing the border from China, has revealed explosive
information about ethnic Kazakhs in China being forced into
"reeducation centers."

This information is explosive for three reasons.

First, China has always denied the existence of "reeducation centers,"
although there have been plenty testimonies and official documents
proving their existence. Since 2016, Chinese authorities in the have
ensnared tens or hundreds of thousands of Muslims in Xinjiang
province, even foreign citizens, into mass internment camps. The
program aims to rewire detainees' thinking and reshape their
identities. Chinese officials say ideological changes are needed to
fight Islamic extremism.

Second, the testimony revealed that China is forcing thousands of
ethnic Kazakhs into these reeducation centers. This is polarizing the
Kazakh public against China at a time when the Kazakh government is
trying to convince China to invest more money in Kazakhstan
infrastructure projects.

Third, China is demanding that the defector be returned to China. If
she is returned to China, then she would be killed or permanently
"disappeared," and the Kazakh "people will say the government cannot
protect its own people," according to an activist. If she isn't
returned, then the Chinese will be furious, and the investments might
be in jeopardy. AFP

****
**** The explosive testimony: thousands of Kazakhs in China's reeducation camps
****

The defector is 41 year old Sayragul Sauytbay, an ethnic Kazakh who is
a Chinese citizen. She had been working as a Kindergarten teacher in
China for several years. According to her public testimony, she was
forced to work in a camp system in Xinjiang region, which is heavily
populated by Muslims. Her testimony became explosive when she said:

<QUOTE>"In the center where I was, there were more than 2,500
ethnic Kazakhs. And I know that in that region, there were several
other similar camps."<END QUOTE>

According to news reports, everyone in the courtroom gasped when she
said this. The exceptions were two men who had arrived from the
Chinese embassy to watch the trial, and who remained silent.

She testified that she was arrested and sent to a camp after her
husband and children returned to Kazakhstan, which the Chinese
authorities consider to be suspicious behavior, even though it had
been commonplace for years:

<QUOTE>"In 2018, they sent me to work in a political
reeducation camp in the mountains. Officially, this is a training
center where people study Chinese ideology. But in reality this
was a prison."<END QUOTE>

Unlike Uighurs, ethnic Kazakhs had long moved freely between China and
Kazakhstan, and there are some 200,000 ethnic Kazakhs in Xinjiang.
However, the freedom to move back and forth disappeared late in 2016
in a crackdown by Chinese authorities, who took the unprecedented step
of requiring all Muslims to turn in their passports. This meant that
anyone who wanted to travel back to Kazakhstan had to file an official
request, and hope for approval.

At the time of the crackdown, Sauytbay's husband and children
were in Kazakhstan. According to her testimony, she was
not allowed to return to Kazakhstan, but was "tricked" into
working in the reeducation center, where she lost contact
with her family.

Finally, on April 5 of this year, she used forged documents to
illegally cross from China into Kazakhstan in order to reunite with
her family. On May 22, she was arrested by the National Security
Committee, the successor agency to the Soviet KGB.

Sauytbay testified on July 13:

<QUOTE>"I fully accept my guilt and I am willing to endure
any punishment. I only ask one thing – that you do not send me to
China. A death sentence awaits me there."<END QUOTE>

Since she has admitted guilt, the government is faced whether to
decline to deport her, and anger China, or to hand her over to China,
which may trigger anti-government riots and demonstrations in
Kazakhstan.

For two decades, Kazakhstan's government has cast itself as a
protector of Kazakhs abroad. It now must take a tough stand or lose
credibility with the domestic population. At the same time, when
China might have expected to gain real influence in Kazakhstan, the
court trial is going to make that almost impossible in the near term.
The Kazakh people are also extremely suspicious of Russians as well.

As we reported in April,

Kazakhstan is already permitting America to use Caspian Sea ports to
supply military in Afghanistan, a move opposed by Russia because it
changes the balance of power in Central Asia.

With nationalism and xenophobia towards both Chinese and Russians
increasing, Kazakhstan may have to seek friends and allies elsewhere,
perhaps in the West or in the Muslim world. EurasiaNet and Jamestown

****
**** China's 'reeducation centers' are described as torture centers
****

According to a Congressional report in April of this year, reeducation
centers are prisons where torture is standard:

<QUOTE>"There are credible media reports that as many as
500,000 to a million people are or have been detained in what are
being called “political education centers,” the largest mass
incarceration of a minority population in the world today.
Thousands are being held for months at a time and subjected to
political indoctrination sessions. Many have reportedly been
detained for praying, wearing “Islamic” clothing, or having
foreign connections, such as previous travel abroad or relatives
living in another country. Reports have emerged of the deaths of
detainees in these centers, including the death of a well-known
Muslim religious scholar who may have been held in such a
facility, and there are reports that torture and other human
rights abuses are occurring in overcrowded centers secured by
guard towers, barbed wire, and high walls.<END QUOTE>

Survivors of these reeducation camps have described starvation,
torture and a system of indoctrination akin to what China saw at the
height of the Cultural Revolution. Sauytbay said inmates are required
to read ideological literature, memorize the national anthem and study
Chinese. Detainees are predominantly Uyghurs and Kazakhs, whose
cultural distinctness is taken as a sign of “lack of patriotism.”

Another ethnic Kazakh named Omer has described how he was
constantly tortured, including the following:

<QUOTE>"There, he and 40 people were locked in a room. I get
up every morning and I sing "red songs", they have to learn
Chinese and Chinese history, especially how the Communist Party
"liberated" Xinjiang. Before eating, you should shout "thank you
for the party" and so on, when you are in class, repeat the slogan
several times."<END QUOTE>

The Chinese can be pretty stupid, but it's hard to believe that even
they are stupid enough to believe that the above actually works. No
wonder the Kazakhs, Uighurs and Tibetans all hate the Chinese, and
certainly don't consider them to be "liberators." US Congressional-Executive Commission on China (3-Apr) and
Epoch Times (19-Jul)

Related Articles

• Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan (28-Apr-2018)
  
  
• The Caspian Corridor and the New Silk Road (25-May-2016)
  
  
• China overtaking both Russia and US in influence in Central Asia (05-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Kazakhstan farmers riot over fears of encroachment from China (22-May-2016)
  
  
• Kazakhstan becomes anxious over Russia's annexation of Crimea (25-Mar-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kazakhstan, Sayragul Sauytbay,
China, Xinjiang, Uighurs, reeducation centers,
Caspian Sea, Afghanistan, Russia, Tibet

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[JDG 66]

(07-19-2018, 02:21 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-19-2018, 12:43 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(07-11-2018, 02:49 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-11-2018, 01:54 PM)JDG 66 Wrote: Let's see. Che, and Castro leap to mind. And the Sandinistas. I have an 1990s Rand McNally Atlas which sings the praises of Dr. Robert Mugabe. The entire period from the Summer of 1972 to November 1989 consisted of the Left claiming moral equality between the US and the USSR.

Cites?  Oh yeah, you don't do those.  Well let me put in a quick word: projection.  I'm sure you can find a LW radical somewhere to cite, but you'll never find anyone in the class of Timothy McVeigh. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_bombing  

BTW, what does any of this have to do with cities, Mr. H??

Two comments:

1. A cite (or really, several) for the 17 year period in bold.  I doubt you'll find anything other than fringe groups, but carry on.
   
2. Anarchists are neither left or right, but merely anti-authoritarian in the extreme -- libertarians without limits.
   

Misread "cites" as "cities".

Ted Kennedy's preference for the USSR over Reagan: http://acmeofskill.com/2009/08/text-of-k...s-senator/


...wasn't that unusual", and most of us remember that it only became more blatant when Gorbachev became dictator. Remember the Gorbasms?