Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Dec-18 World View -- China jails Canadian journalist Michael Kovrig in apparent retaliation for Canada arrest of Meng Wanzhou

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China jails Canadian journalist Michael Kovrig in apparent retaliation for Canada arrest of Meng Wanzhou
  
• US State Dept considers stronger travel warning for China
  
• How Michael Kovrig infuriates the Chinese
  
• Canada releases Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou on bail
  

****
**** China jails Canadian journalist Michael Kovrig in apparent retaliation for Canada arrest of Meng Wanzhou
****


Meng Wanzhou speaks to her lawyer at Tuesday's bail hearing (Toronto Star)

Michael Kovrig, a Canadian journalist and analyst working as a China
expert for the International Crisis Group, has suddenly disappeared
while in China. Kovrig is also a former Canadian diplomat.

It's assumed the Kovrig was arrested by China's security forces.
According to one analyst, the Chinese will hold someone for 37 days
before he's given access to a lawyer.

Many people additionally believe that Kovrig was arrested, without
charges or justification, in retaliation for Canada's arrest of Huawei
CFO Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested after a multi-year investigation
alleging that Meng conducted massive counts of bank fraud in order to
violate US sanctions against Iran.

The fact that Meng was charged with multiple real crimes, while Kovrig
was arrested without any justification is just one of the differences
between the two cases.

A second difference is the Meng was immediately given access to her
family and a lawyer, and was told what the charges were. Kovrig has
completely disappeared, and is given access to no one.

Third, Meng was tried in a real court, where her lawyer could defend
her. If Kovrig's case is typical, he'll be thrown into jail,
tortured, and forced to confess to a crime he knows nothing about.

China is just being consistent as a criminal nation. Meng is being
tried in a fair court procedure. China's abduction of Kovrig is
criminal. China's activities in the South China Sea are criminal.
China's theft of other countries' intellectual property is criminal.
China's repeated violation of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules is
criminal. China's repeated destruction of Christian churches is
criminal. China's incredible actions sending a million Uighurs to
"re-education camps" where they can be beaten, tortured, raped or
killed for not reciting the party line is not only criminal, it's one
of the stupidest and most insane policies in the history of mankind.
And China is being led by president Xi Jinping who is terrified by
Winnie the Pooh because they look the same. Can you imagine Donald
Trump or any other world leading being terrified by a cartoon like
Winnie the Pooh?

Almost every day something new happens that makes China appear to be a
country falling apart at the seams. This is not good, as it will lead
to a great deal of bloodshed and a world war. Toronto Star and South China Morning Post and Canadian Broadcasting

****
**** US State Dept considers stronger travel warning for China
****

Michael Kovrig's arrest without charges or justification, apparently
in retaliation for Canada's arrest of Meng, has raised alarm that any
Westerner in China is now subject to arbitrary arrest without charges
or justification.

There are reports that the US State Department is considering
toughening its travel warning for people considering travel to China.
However, the State Dept's existing travel warning is already pretty
tough, and shows that Kovrig's unjustified rest is pretty common in
China:

<QUOTE>"Chinese authorities have the broad ability to
prohibit travelers from leaving China (also known as ‘exit bans’);
exit bans have been imposed to compel U.S. citizens to resolve
business disputes, force settlement of court orders, or facilitate
government investigations. Individuals not involved in legal
proceedings or suspected of wrongdoing have also be subjected to
lengthy exit bans in order to compel their family members or
colleagues to cooperate with Chinese courts or investigators.

U.S. citizens visiting or residing in China have been arbitrarily
interrogated or detained for reasons related to “state security.”
Security personnel have detained and/or deported U.S. citizens for
sending private electronic messages critical of the Chinese
government."<END QUOTE>

It's pretty clear from this State Dept. warning that things like
arresting and burying Michael Kovrig are a fairly common occurrence in
China. US State Dept.

****
**** How Michael Kovrig infuriates the Chinese
****

Michael Kovrig is a fluent Mandarin speaker and an analyst for the
International Crisis Group. I was curious to see what he's written,
and I found his most recent article on the ICG web site, "China
Expands Its Peace and Security Footprint in Africa." It's a lengthy
article, and here are some excerpts:

<QUOTE>"[O]fficials from 53 African countries and the African
Union (AU) [came] to Beijing for meetings that culminated in a
resolution to continue strengthening ties and a renewed pledge of
billions of dollars in Chinese loans, grants and investments. Over
the past decade China’s role in peace and security has also grown
rapidly through arms sales, military cooperation and peacekeeping
deployments in Africa. ...

A more controversial sign of China’s military footprint is the
36-hectare Djibouti facility that the PLA established in 2017 with
a ten-year lease at $20 million annually. The PLA describes it as
a support base for naval anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of
Aden, peacekeeping in South Sudan and humanitarian and other
cooperation in the Horn of Africa, but has also used it to conduct
live-fire military exercises. ...

Less noticeable to outsiders but broader in impact is China’s
direct defence and security cooperation with African
counterparts. This takes place through a growing number of joint
exercises, naval patrols and exchanges. In the first half of 2018
alone, the PLA Navy’s 27th and 28th anti-piracy escort task forces
reportedly visited ports in Cameroon, Gabon, Ghana and Nigeria,
while PLA units conducted drills in the same countries, and its
medical teams did work in Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Sudan and
Zambia. Mere months after Burkina Faso’s May decision to switch
diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the PLA is already
working to develop military ties that will likely emphasize
counter-terrorism cooperation. ...

The political and defence relationships fostered by these programs
grease the wheels for weapons sales. Data compiled by the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows
that China has become the top supplier of arms to sub-Saharan
Africa, accounting for 27 per cent of the region’s imports over
the four year period from 2013-2017, an increase of 55 per cent
over 2008-2012. Some 22 countries in the region have procured
major arms from Chinese suppliers in recent years, key among them
Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zambia. In June, China’s State
Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National
Defence reported that Beijing now has defence industry, science
and technology ties with 45 African countries. ...

China’s own expanding economic interests are a further driver.
Africa’s largest trading partner since 2009, China increasingly
counts on the continent for natural resources and markets to
maintain its own growth and social stability. ...

Moreover, roughly a million Chinese are estimated to live and work
in Africa, and China’s leaders have a domestic political
imperative to ensure their safety. Beijing has already contended
with evacuations from Libya, South Sudan and Yemen, and incidents
of violence and property damage elsewhere. The 2017 Chinese
blockbuster action movie Wolf Warrior II brought home a
Rambo-esque fantasy version of these concerns. Set in a nameless
African country that descends into chaos, it closes with the
hubristic message that China’s government will protect its
citizens wherever they go."<END QUOTE>

China's politicians are people that become infuriated by Winnie the
Pooh, so it's not surprising that this criminal nation would be
infuriated by this kind of analysis. It's quite possible that they've
been planning to arrest and bury Michael Kovrig for some time, and the
arrest of Meng Wanzhou provided the perfect opportunity. International Crisis Group (24-Oct)

****
**** Canada releases Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou on bail
****

There was a burst of applause on Tuesday afternoon in the Vancouver
Supreme Court courtroom when the court granted bail to Huawei CFO Meng
Wanzhou.

Meng is not scheduled to appear in court again until February 6, at
which time a hearing will be held to determine whether Meng should be
extradited to the United States for a setting up a complex
international financial system, defrauding banks in several countries,
in order to violate US sanctions laws with regard to Iran.

The judge said that Meng's husband Liu Xiaozong would pledge a total
of $15 million — including the value of two Vancouver homes and $7
million in cash — and live with her to ensure she obeys court
conditions. Meng must also report to a bail supervisor, maintain good
behavior, live at a house owned by her husband, and stay in that house
between the hours of 11 p.m. and 6 a.m. She must also surrender her
passports, wear an electronic monitoring bracelet on her ankle and
live under surveillance 24/7.

However, these people are billionaires, and this money means nothing
to them. I don't believe anyone will be too surprised if Meng doesn't
show up at the February 6 court hearing, and investigation shows that
she eluded the police by wearing a turban, a long fake beard, and a
Sikh chola, carrying a pair of swords.

Apparently what convinced the judge is that four other friends were
willing to guarantee that she would not skip bail. He told the
courtroom he believed "the risk of her non-attendance in court can be
reduced to an acceptable level" under the bail conditions.

There is an unconfirmed suspicion that the arrest of Michael Kovrig in
the criminal nation China was a factor, since not granting bail to
Meng could mean torture and additional detention for Kovrig. Even
with bail, the suspicion is that the fate of Kovrig is directly
dependent on the fate of Meng in the Vancouver courtroom. Toronto Star and Canadian Broadcasting

Related Articles:

• Arrest of Meng Wanzhou of China's Huawei has increasingly serious implications (08-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Canada arrests the chief financial officer of China powerhouse Huawei (07-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations (26-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Australia passes foreign influence laws, targeting China (29-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Huawei scandal exposes potential 'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor' from China (14-Oct-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Huawei, Meng Wanzhou,
Michael Kovrig, Canada, Vancouver, Liu Xiaozong

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Dec-18 World View -- China recklessly arrests a second Canadian without justification

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China recklessly arrests a second Canadian without justification
  
• US blames China for Marriot data breach in plan to create massive database of American citizens
  
• Google CEO Sundar Pichai evades questions about helping China's military
  

****
**** China recklessly arrests a second Canadian without justification
****


Chinese police arrest activist in Hong Kong (File, Reuters)

As we reported yesterday, China arrested a Canadian journalist and
former diplomat Michael Korvig with no charges or justification.
( "12-Dec-18 World View -- China jails Canadian journalist Michael Kovrig in apparent retaliation for Canada arrest of Meng Wanzhou"
)

On Wednesday, Canada said that a second Canadian, Michael Spavor, has
been arrested. He was initially questioned by Chinese police, and
then contacted the Canadian government. After that, he disappeared.

The international hostility to China has been growing palpably in the
last year. It isn't just the Trump administration that has been
critical of China's theft of intellectual property and violation of
international trade rules. According to analysts I've heard,
politicians in Canada and Europe and Japan are increasingly "fed up"
with trying to deal with China.

The Chinese are also growing angrier at the West, but it goes beyond
that.

At the same time, China increasingly gives the impression of a country
in societal meltdown. The crackdown on Christianity has become more
vitriolic, and the policy of sending a million Uighurs to
"re-education camps" where they can be beaten, tortured, raped or
killed for not reciting the party line is one of the most insane
policies in the history of mankind. The number of "mass incidents" in
China was increasing exponentially for years, until China stopped
reporting the official statistics, and jailed reporters who did so
unofficially. It's believed that an economic recession in China could
trigger widespread protests or a civil war, as happened with Mao's
Communist Revolution (1934-49) or the Taiping Rebellion (1852-64).

Arresting another Canadian for the second day in a row is extremely
reckless, because it's going to cause panic among all Western
diplomats and executives in China. Even worse, it suggests that
China's government no longer cares how bad it looks, and is losing
control of its foreign policy.

As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics has been predicting
for years that China and the West are headed for World War III in this
generational Crisis era. Things appear to moving quickly now, as
relations deteriorate. China Digital Times and Bloomberg and Guardian (London)

Related Articles:

• China jails Canadian journalist Michael Kovrig in apparent retaliation for Canada arrest of Meng Wanzhou (12-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Arrest of Meng Wanzhou of China's Huawei has increasingly serious implications (08-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations (26-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  

****
**** US blames China for Marriot data breach in plan to create massive database of American citizens
****

US government investigators blame hackers working for China's spy
agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS), for a cyberattack on the
Marriott Hotel chain that collected personal details of roughly 500
million guests between 2014 and 2018.

The stolen data contains names, addresses, telephone numbers, credit
card numbers, passport numbers, birthdates, passport photos, hotel
arrival and departure dates, and information on where people traveled
and with whom.

Other data breaches attributed to China's MSS include a 2017 Equifax
hack that collected detailed credit information on 145 million people,
a 2013 Target breach that exposed payment card and contact information
for 60 million customers, and a 2015 hack of the Office of Personnel
Management (OPM) that collected detailed personal information on more
than 20 million government employees, family members and applicants.
There were other breaches of health-care institutions, including
Anthem and CareFirst, that provided health data.

It's believed that China's MSS has created a large database of
hundreds of millions of Americans, merging data from all these
sources. This data can be used for spying, extortion, identity theft,
and so forth.

Taking this a step further, the Chinese company Huawei Technologies is
the second largest manufacturer of smartphones in the world, behind
Samsung. It's believed that Huawei phones and devices can be accessed
remotely by China's military, as I described in detail last week,
with the result that numerous
Western companies are banning Huawei from supplying equipment for
their networks.

Huawei phones, like all smartphones, keep track of locations and
calling data for its users. This data could be accessed from China
and merged with the master data base described above to accumulate
detailed personal information and activities of tens of millions of
Americans.

China is already doing this for its citizens in China. China's
military collects massive amounts of data on online activities and
uses street cameras and facial recognition algorithms to track the
locations of millions of Chinese citizens in real time. This is
particularly true in Xinjiang province, where Uighurs are constantly
monitored for suspicious activity, and a million Uighurs have been
sent to "re-education camps."
Washington Post and AP (3-Dec)
and New York Times



****
**** Google CEO Sundar Pichai evades questions about helping China's military
****

In a related matter, Google CEO Sundar Pichai testified before the
U.S. House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday. He was questioned about
the massive amount of data that Google collects about Americans,
though not nearly as much as the Chinese are collecting on the Chinese
-- or on Americans.

Pichai completely evaded answering questions about Project Dragonfly,
the massive project to use search engine technology in China to
collect data about search requests and add it to China's huge database
of tens of millions of its citizens, where it could be used, for
example, to identify "suspicious" activity. Pichai said that the
project was under active development, but that there were "no plans"
to deploy it in China at this time.

However, Pichai was not asked about the state of the art Artificial
Intelligence development center that Google is opening in Shanghai, to
supply advanced AI technology to China's government and military,
while Google refuses to work with the American military for even
defensive purposes. Google apparently plans to help out the Chinese
when China and the US are at war, just as IBM helped out the Nazis at
the beginning of World War II. The Street


Related Articles:

• Amazon's Jeff Bezos says America must be defended, while Google repudiates its 'Do No Evil' policy (17-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Google is repeating the mistakes that IBM made in helping the Nazis (06-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Huawei scandal exposes potential 'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor' from China (14-Oct-2012)
  
  
• New report reveals massive cyber war attack by China's army (20-Feb-2013)
  
  
• Major defense contractor QinetiQ hacked for years by China (06-May-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Huawei, Canada,
Michael Kovrig, Michael Spavor,
Marriot Hotel, Ministry of State Security, MSS,
Xinjiang province, Uighurs, re-education camps,
Google, Sundar Pichai, Project Dragonfly

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Tim Randal Walker]

In the public library I came across a book about the Chinese infiltration of Australia-"Silent Invasion" by Clive Hamilton.

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-13-2018, 01:45 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > In the public library I came across a book about the Chinese
> infiltration of Australia-"Silent Invasion" by Clive Hamilton.
>

** 26-Feb-18 World View -- New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations
** Hamilton's book 'Silent Invasion' describes China's infiltration into Australia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180226

[Tim Randal Walker]

The aftermath of a Sino/American war is depicted in the remake of On The Beach. YouTube, On The Beach, 2000, Part 1.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Dec-18 World View -- Cuba eases economic restrictions, continuing on path from Socialism to free markets

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cuba eases economic restrictions, continuing on path from Socialism to free markets
  
• The unraveling of Cuba's Socialist economy
  
• Cuba rolls out mobile internet services
  

****
**** Cuba eases economic restrictions, continuing on path from Socialism to free markets
****


Shoes for sale displayed on a shelf inside the home of a small business owner in Havana, Cuba, in 2013. (AP)

In the face of popular demand from artists and entrepreneurs, the
government of Cuba has backed down on plans to implement harsh new
restrictions on the private sector.

In July, Cuba announced the harsh controls on private businesses, to
take effect on December 7, claiming that the opening up of some free
markets has fueled wealth inequality, tax evasion and the black
market.

Since 2010, when it became legal to run certain small businesses, life
has been transformed for many people. Around 13% of Cuba's overall
workforce is now self-employed, in areas like tourism and transport.

However, the rapid growth of small businesses was apparently
threatening to Cuba, and in 2017, it began freezing issuing licenses
for some popular business categories.

It appears that Cuba's government is struggling to avoid a total
economic disaster as in Socialist Venezuela, at the same time
pretending to maintain a Socialist façade in its economy. Thus the
government wants people to earn money self-employed in private
businesses, but the government wants forbid a person from making money
in two private businesses, since then me might make too much money.
Therefore, the government announced in July that it would be illegal
for a person to own more than one business license.

So for example, a person renting out a room in his home while driving
a private taxi during the day would be making too much money, and
would be forced, under the new regulations, to give up one source of
income or the other.

So it was a shock that, after years of unyielding authoritarian
government under Fidel and Raúl Castro, the new president Miguel
Diaz-Canel suddenly reversed some of the worst rules on December 6,
just a day before they were to take effect.

The biggest reversal is that Cubans will be permitted to work
in two or more self-employment activities simultaneously.

Another abolished rule had set a limit of 50 seats for private bars,
restaurants and cafeterias. A law requiring many businesses to
maintain bank accounts with a minimum deposit of three months taxes, a
requirement that would have put many people out of business, was
softened to require only two months taxes.

Artists are applauding the delay in implementing another new law. The
law, announced in July, requires prior government approval for
artists, musicians, writers and performers who want to present their
work in any spaces open to the public, including private homes and
businesses. Implementation of the law will be delayed following
protests and social media campaigns by many Cuban artists that it was
another layer of censorship and control over artistic expression.
Miami Herald and Reuters and AP and
Miami Herald

****
**** The unraveling of Cuba's Socialist economy
****

There's a certain amusing irony that Xinhua, the official news service
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), in a country that is still
officially Socialist (but "with Chinese characteristics"),
congratulated Cuba on rolling back some of the restrictions on the
private sector: "Cuba's government has taken new regulations that will
spur the island's fledgling private sector to ensure it continues to
expand and create jobs, local media said on Thursday."

Indeed Cuba is in the process of abandoning its Socialist economy and
turning to capitalistic free markets, just as China did decades ago,
and just as one Socialist country after another had to do in the last
60 years, in order to avoid catastrophic economic meltdowns. Two
Socialist countries -- Venezuela and North Korea -- did NOT make that
transition, and the disastrous self-destructive results are there for
all to see.

From the point of view of Generation Dynamics, Cuba is in the midst of
a generational Unraveling era, when the harsh rules set up after the
last generational crisis war, in this case the 1960 Cuban Revolution,
unravel because younger generations no longer are willing to tolerate
them. America's last generational Unraveling era occurred in the
1990s, when the country dismantled the post-Depression financial
regulations and opened its foreign policy to Communist countries like
China and Russia.

During the last ten years, the entire Socialist economy
has been unraveling, step by step.

In 2010, when Cuba's economy was in shambles, and president Raúl
Castro announced the end of the Socialist economy.
The government would lay off 500,000 government
workers (Socialist bureaucrats) and privatize many businesses.

In particular, Marx's Socialist Principle Of Distribution ("From each
according to abilities, to each according to needs") was abandoned at
the time, with the announcement: We must reinvigorate the socialist
principle of distribution, to pay to each according to the quantity
and quality of work provided."

Within two years of the 2010 announcement, the size of the state
payroll had been reduced by 20%, and more than 200,000 people had
moved into private enterprise. For the first time, Havana was
population with street stalls selling everything from pirate DVDs to
kitchen implements. There were still many restrictions on private
businesses, but these restrictions are being removed, one by one.

Unfortunately, ending a Socialist economy does not mean ending the
dictatorship. Like Nazi Germany and China, a dictatorship with free
markets is Fascist. Whether Cuba's dictatorship will also unravel and
turn into a democratic government remains to be seen. Xinhua
and Reuters

****
**** Cuba rolls out mobile internet services
****

Another sign that Cuba's hardline control over business is unraveling
is the availability of internet access to mobile phones across the
country. Previously, internet access was limited to state-run
internet cafes and public wi-fi hot spots.

Cuba will offer packages of data data ranging from 600 MB for 7
convertible Cuban pesos ($7) to 4 GB for 30 Cuban pesos ($30). The
average monthly salary for a Cuban is $30 per month, meaning that few
Cubans will be able to afford the service. CNBC and Al Jazeera


Related Articles:

• Socialist Cuba moves to Capitalism, while Socialist Venezuela moves to self-destruction (16-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution (20-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Cuba's seismic shift has global implications (16-Sep-2010)
  
  
• From Cuba to China, people worry about demise of Venezuela's Chavez (03-Jul-2011)
  
  
• Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others (18-Dec-2014)
  
  
• Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard (06-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cuba, Fidel Castro, Raúl Castro,
Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez,
Venezuela, North Korea, Socialist Principle Of Distribution,
China, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Unraveling era

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Dec-18 World View -- Russian Orthodox Church asks world leaders to protect it from Ukrainian persecution

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russian Orthodox Church asks world leaders to protect it from Ukrainian persecution
  
• Military tensions between Ukraine and Russia are increasing
  

****
**** Russian Orthodox Church asks world leaders to protect it from Ukrainian persecution
****


Ukrainian border guards prevent Russian men, aged 16-60, from entering Ukraine. Sign says: 'Do not stop between the striped columns.' (RFE/RL)

Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, the leader of the the Moscow Patriarchate
of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), has sent a letter to the pope and
a number of other world leaders urging them to protect bishops and
clergy of the ROC in Ukraine, who are under pressure to change
allegiance to the Kiev Patriarchate of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

The Ukrainian Orthodox Church is the biggest Orthodox Christian Church
in Ukraine, and is subordinate to the Moscow Patriarchate When the
Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s, the Church was also split, with a
separate Kiev Patriarchate of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

In October, Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople, the "first among
equals" leader of all Orthodox Christian churches and of the world's
300 million Orthodox Christians, announced that he was reversing a 330
year old policy, and would make the Kiev Patriarchate a separate
Church, independent of the Moscow Patriarchate.

This infuriated the Russians, who promised revenge. This has led
to pressure in Ukraine for clergy and bishops in Ukraine belonging
to the Moscow Patriarchate to switch allegiance to
the Kiev Patriarchate.

According to Kirill:

<QUOTE>"Recently, the intervention of the leaders of the
secular Ukrainian state in church affairs has acquired the
character of gross pressure on the episcopate and clergy of the
Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which allows us to speak about the
beginning of full-scale persecutions."<END QUOTE>

Kirill also accused Ukraine's government of a kind of identity
theft:

<QUOTE>"The state-run media continues a massive company to
discredit the Ukrainian Church. In violation of the right to
privacy and the prohibition of the use of personal data, personal
information about the bishops and clergymen of the Ukrainian
Orthodox Church, available to the state, is published. In
particular, the personal data of a significant part of the
episcopate of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church were published on the
Peacemaker website along with comments that incited religious
hatred,

[The Peacemaker website exists with the direct support of the
Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine], and has previously
become notorious for publishing information about Ukrainian,
American and European journalists, after which they were
threatened, beaten and even deprived of life."<END QUOTE>

Kirill's plea was sent to numerous world leaders, including Pope
Francis, the head of the Anglican Community to the Archbishop of
Canterbury Justin Welby, the Secretary General of the World Council of
Churches O. Fuxse Tveit, and the UN Secretary General A. Guterres,
Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe T. Gremymhramhym, the President of France E. Macron and the
German Chancellor A. Merkel as heads of states of the Normandy Four.

Kirill appealed to religious and state leaders, leaders of
intergovernmental organizations to make every effort to protect the
bishops, clergy and believers of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from
discrimination and pressure from the Ukrainian authorities, to defend
the freedom of conscience and religion enshrined in international law.
Moscow Times and Russian Orthodox Church (Trans) and AP and Moscow Times

****
**** Military tensions between Ukraine and Russia are increasing
****

The dispute over the Orthodox Church in Ukraine comes four years after
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and at a time, when military tensions
are rising again.

The problem with Kirill's plea is that Kirill is following the
policies of Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and Putin lies about
everything. These include lying about Russian soldiers in Ukraine,
lying after Russians shot down a passenger plane with a Buk missile,
lying about not invading Crimea, lying about whether Russia is going
to annex Crimea, and then annexing Crimea. There are lots more lies
related to Bashar al-Assad's use of Sarin gas and chlorine gas.

So we have to assume that Kirill is just as much a liar as Putin is.
Maybe bishops and clergy are being targeted with "full-scale
persecutions," and maybe they aren't -- we can't conclude anything
from anything that Kirill says.

On the other hand, Ukraine’s Security Service, the SBU, is claiming
that Russians in east Ukraine are organizing church marches in
numerous cities across Ukraine on Sunday, in order to disrupt a
meeting of the unification council of Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
We'll see if these church marches actually take place tomorrow
(Sunday). Unfortunately, no one can exclude the possibility that
Moscow may launch more serious military actions this weekend with the
same purpose.

What is apparent is that military tensions are purposely increasing on
both sides. The original Ukraine war that started four years ago has
not been in the news much, but it's still continuing at a low level,
with both Russians and Ukrainians being killed every week.

On November 25, Russia conducted an act of war by firing on Ukrainian
navy ships in the Black Sea, boarding and seizing the ships, and
blockading Ukraine's ports at the Kerch Strait. Russia abducted the
crew of 24, and apparently tortured some of them in order to create a
video and forcing them to confess to crimes they didn't commit.

Russia continues to hold and bury the 24 Ukrainian sailors, possibly
in retaliation for the Orthodox Church issue, just as the Chinese have
abducted and buried two Canadian journalists, in apparent retaliation
for the arrest in Canada of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, after an
multi-year investigation revealed massive bank fraud by Huawei in
order to violate US sanctions against Iran.

On November 26, in retaliation for the Kerch Strait seizure, Ukraine's
parliament voted to implement Martial Law in ten regions of Ukraine
for 30 days, in preparation for a possible new invasion by Russia.

Then, on November 30, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
prohibited Russian men aged 16-60 from entering Russia. The reason
given was to prevent Russia from sending in troops to form private
armies, but the restriction played havoc with men who cross the border
every day for work.

On December 1, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF)
announced short-term, 15-day training courses for reservists and
members of the territorial defense forces. Window on Eurasia and Reuters and Jamestown and RFE/RL (Trans)

Related Articles:

• Constantinople grants Ukrainian Orthodox Church independence, causing historic split with Russia (12-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Russian Orthodox Church in historic split with Constantinople over Ukraine issue (16-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Russia's annexation of Crimea splits the Russian Orthodox Church (20-Mar-2014)
  
  
• Russian Orthodox Church reunites 80 years after Bolshevik Revolution (17-May-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Constantinople,
Russian Orthodox Church, Ukrainian Orthodox Church,
Moscow Patriarchate, Kiev Patriarchate,
Patriarch Bartholomew I, Patriarch Kirill,
Black Sea, Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Dec-18 World View -- Cambodia denies major China-funded seaport project is a military base

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Cambodia denies major China-funded seaport project is a military base
  
• Cambodia is becoming increasingly Chinese and military
  

****
**** Cambodia denies major China-funded seaport project is a military base
****


China is building a massive deep-water seaport project in Cambodia's Koh Kong province along the Gulf of Thailand

Cambodia's prime minister Hun Sen has been forced repeatedly
to deny that China was building a military naval base in Koh Kong
province on the Gulf of Thailand. A naval base in that location
would give China commanding control of the southern part of
the South China Sea, which it currently is occupying in violation
of international law.

China has long been Cambodia's top provider of military equipment.
For years, there has been a Chinese-built $3.8 billion land project in
Koh Kong province in Cambodia, along the Gulf of Thailand. The
project was begun a decade ago, operating under a 99-year lease
granted to China. The land project contains a deep-water port which
is said to be deep enough to potentially accommodate not just
container ships, but Chinese navy frigates and destroyers as well.

A report last month in Asia Times said that the naval base was already
under construction, forcing Hun Sen to make a denial:

<QUOTE>"I also received a letter from U.S. Vice President
Mike Pence raising concerns of the possible presence of a Chinese
naval base in Cambodia in the future.

“I want to make clear to our compatriots and foreign friends that
Cambodia will not violate its own constitution. Cambodia’s
Constitution prohibits the presence of foreign armies or military
bases inside the country ... Cambodia will not permit any foreign
military base for a navy, army or air force.<END QUOTE>

That Hun Sen is unwilling to violate Cambodia's constitution
is laughable. Earlier this year, his party won a national
parliamentary election, taking all 125 parliamentary seats that
were up for election. He accomplished that amazing feat by
jailing or assassinating political opponents, taking control
of all of the media, closed all radio stations critical of
the government, and ordered the complete dissolution of the
opposition political party -- all of that, presumably, in
violation of the constitution.

The size of land granted to China under the 99 year lease is reported
to be another violation of the constitution. The grant is 45,000
hectares, while Cambodial law limits such concessions to 10,000
hectares.

So, just like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Bashar al-Assad and other
leaders, we can assume that anything that Hun Sen says is a complete
lie, except by accident. At any rate his assurances to Mike Pence
that China is not building a naval base are completely meaningless.
Asia Times and Radio Free Asia and Khmer Times


****
**** Cambodia is becoming increasingly Chinese and military
****

Sihanoukville, which is in Preah Sihanouk province on the southern
border of Koh Kong province, used to be a premier seaside resort and
tourist attraction, but has now turned into a Chinese enclave. It's a
visible example of the China's rising domination of Cambodia's
economy. Hun Sen's critics claim that Hun Sen has enabled China's
de facto "colonization" of Cambodia.

Whether or not the Koh Kong deep water seaport will be a Chinese
military base, there's little doubt of China's increasing military
presence in Cambodia. Cambodia is a key country within Beijing's Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI), and the seaport has taken on increasing
significance. China has pledged $100 million in military grants for
training and equipment for the Cambodian military. Sihanoukville has
given itself over entirely to Chinese investment, with a $1.1 billion
investment from China in just the past year. The key complaint for
many in Sihanoukville is that even though Chinese investment brings
wealth, it is mainly kept within their own community.

Cambodia appears to be another victim of China's "debt trap
diplomacy." About half of Cambodia's $6 in foreign debt is owed to
China, and as usual, it's China that has benefited from the
infrastructure projects, leaving Cambodia with little more than a pile
of debt which it will never be able to pay back.

As happened with Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport, this could give China
complete control over Cambodia's Koh Kong port, and China could use it
as a military naval base whether doing so violates Cambodia's
constitution or not. Asia Times and Reuters (19-Jun) and Asia Times and Diplomat

Related Articles:

• China-Cambodia grow closer militarily, as Hun Sen steals parliamentary election (16-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Cambodia's China-backed dictator Hun Sen expected to win fraudulent election on Sunday (29-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Cambodia's dictatorial Hun Sen forces sale of independent Phnom Penh Post (08-May-2018)
  
  
• Cambodia's Hun Sen threatens violence at protesters at ASEAN meeting (18-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun Sen can be reelected unopposed (17-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Burma's (Myanmar's) leaders may be inspired by Pol Pot's Cambodian 'Killing Fields' genocide (29-Sep-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Cambodia, Phnom Penh,
Hun Sen, debt trap, Mike Pence,
Gulf of Thailand, Koh Kong, Preah Sihanouk, Sihanoukville,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Dec-18 World View -- North Korea threatens US with 'exchanges of fire' over new human rights sanctions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US issues new sanctions on North Korea over human rights abuses
  
• North Korea threatens retaliation for the sanctions
  
• Japan-Korea relations worsen over 'comfort women' issue
  

****
**** US issues new sanctions on North Korea over human rights abuses
****


Japanese surveillance aircraft spots a Dominican-flagged Yuk Tung oil tanker after it transferred fuel to the North Korean-registered Rye Song tanker in the open South China Sea, in violation of sanctions. (AP)

On Monday, the Trump administration announced new sanctions against
three senior North Korean officials for for human rights abuses and
censorship in the country. The new sanctions were in honor of the
Otto Warmbier, the 22-year-old American college student who died
after being released from North Korean custody in June 2017.

According to Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin:

<QUOTE>"Treasury is sanctioning senior North Korean officials
who direct departments that perpetrate the regime’s brutal
state-sponsored censorship activities, human rights violations and
abuses, and other abuses in order to suppress and control the
population. These sanctions demonstrate the United States’
ongoing support for freedom of expression, and opposition to
endemic censorship and human rights abuses. The United States has
consistently condemned the North Korean regime for its flagrant
and egregious abuses of human rights and fundamental freedoms, and
this Administration will continue to take action against human
rights abusers around the globe."<END QUOTE>

The sanctions are for human rights abuses by North Korean
organizations that "conduct warrantless searches for unapproved
foreign media or content, inspect and confiscate computer content,
including external storage devices, and even kidnap defectors or
foreign citizens who support human rights in North Korea."
ABC News and US Treasury

****
**** North Korea threatens retaliation for the sanctions
****

North Korea on Sunday harshly condemned the U.S. administration for
stepping up sanctions and pressure. and warned of a return to
“exchanges of fire” and that the denuclearization process could be
blocked forever.

According to the North Korean statement, published by the North Korean
news service KCNA:

<QUOTE>"Now, the international society is unanimous in
welcoming the proactive denuclearization steps taken by the DPRK
[North Korea] and urging the U.S. to respond to these steps in a
corresponding manner. And president Trump avails himself of every
possible occasion to state his willingness to improve
DPRK-U.S. relations.

Far from the statements of the president, the State Department is
instead bent on bringing the DPRK-U.S. relations back to the
status of last year which was marked by exchanges of fire. I
cannot help but throw doubt on the ulterior motive of the State
Department.

If they are a sort of diplomats of "only superpower", they should
at least realize from the past record of the DPRK-U.S. relations
that sanctions and pressure would not work against the DPRK.

The United States will not be unaware of the self-evident fact
that its threat, blackmail and pressure against the other side
cannot be a solution under the relations of pent-up confrontation,
mistrust and hostility between the DPRK and the U.S. and
deterioration of the situation that might be incurred by these
hostile actions would not be beneficial for peace and security of
the Korean peninsula and beyond.

Since we know too well that the deep-rooted hostility between the
DPRK and the U.S. cannot be redressed overnight, we have been
proposing that the DPRK-U.S. relations be improved on a
step-by-step approach of resolving what is feasible one by one, by
giving priority to confidence building.

If the high-ranking politicians within the U.S. administration
including the State Department had calculated that they could
drive us into giving up nuclear weapons by way of increasing the
anti-DPRK sanctions and pressure and human rights racket to an
unprecedented level, which has nothing to do with confidence
building, it will count as greatest miscalculation, and it will
block the path to denuclearization on the Korean peninsula forever
- a result desired by no one.

The U.S. should realize before it is too late that "maximum
pressure" would not work against us and take a sincere approach to
implementing the Singapore DPRK-U.S. Joint
Statement."<END QUOTE>

North Korea gave this statement a great deal of publicity, and so they
wanted it to be noticed. And indeed, the international networks all
carried it prominently.

An interesting thing about the statement is that it blames the State
Dept., and praises president Trump. This is part of the game and the
"charm offensive" that's been going on. This way, the North Koreans
can threaten the United States, but encourage Trump to make more
concessions.

The statement refers to "the proactive denuclearization steps taken by
the DPRK." Actually, there have been no such steps that aren't easily
reversible. The one big "step" was blowing up the Punggye-ri nuclear
test site, but recent satellite imagery indicates that the site is
still usable, and that several dozen personnel are still working
there.

The one major step that the US has requested was a list of all of
North Korea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles development
sites, but North Korea has refused to provide this list.

The US has also taken a reversible "proactive step" -- namely
canceling all joint military drills with the South Koreans. However,
since no progress was being made down the denuclearization path, the
US and South Korea resumed some military drills last month.

As I've been saying since the start of the year, when North Korea's
"charm offensive" began, the North Koreans have absolutely no
intention of denuclearizing. President Trump has been saying that
he's in no hurry to conclude a deal, knowing that the sanctions remain
on North Korea, and hoping that the sanctions might pressure them to
agree to denuclearization. However, as the KCNA statement says, "The
U.S. should realize before it is too late that "maximum pressure"
would not work against us."

It's worth pointing out that North Korea has been evading sanctions by
transferring oil at sea, despite active surveillance and enforcement
by an eight-nation coalition, including Australia, Britain, Canada,
France, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, deploying warships and
aircraft to better spot sanctions violations.

As before, it's pretty clear to everyone (except the news media and
the general public) that the charm offensive was all a show -- that
North Korea would never denuclearize, and that Trump would never agree
to reduce the sanctions. But all sides kept it up because it solve
their immediate political problems by "kicking the can down the road"
-- that is, masking and hiding problems and postponing them until
later.

In the meantime, North Korea now has completed a year more nuclear and
missile development than it had as of a year ago, with the only
restriction that they haven't been able to publicly test their latest
weapons. It remains to be seen how long this can go on. Reuters and KCNA and Chosun Ilbo (Seoul) and NBC News

Related Articles:

• North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course (17-Nov-2018)
  
  
• North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted (12-Nov-2018)
  
  
• US and South Korea resume some military marine drills, despite North's objections (05-Nov-2018)
  
  
• US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** Japan-Korea relations worsen over 'comfort women' issue
****

The question of Korean "comfort women" used by Japanese
soldiers during World War II is reaching a boiling point again.

On October 30, South Korea's supreme court awarded compensation to
four Korean citizens forced to work for the Japanese during World War
II. The Japanese claim that all such awards were already paid in a
settlement concluded in a 1965 treaty.

This has opened up the "comfort women" issue again. In 2015, Japan
and Korean concluded a bilateral agrfeement which was intended at the
time as the “final and irreversible” resolution of the comfort women
issue. However, South Korea is now saying that demands from the
victims is causing the agreement to "wither."

I have witnessed an extremely vitriolic disagreement between
two people who, fortunately, were disagreeing online and were
not in the same room. The disagreement stems from a
1944 US Army report, based on interrogation of "20 Korean
Comfort Girls," which indicates that the girls volunteered for
these roles, and they were well-treated by the Japanese soldiers.
This issue is certain to be raised again.
Japan Today and Diplomat and US Army report (1-Oct-1944)

Related Articles:

• China funds unauthorized anti-Japan comfort woman statue in Manila, Philippines (28-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Japan and China in confrontation over comfort women (07-Mar-2007)
  
  
• China and Japan really DO hate each other (30-Aug-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Mike Pompeo,
Otto Warmbier, Steven T. Mnuchin

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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Dec-18 World View -- Kashmir locked down after Indian security forces kill seven civilians

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kashmir locked down after Indian security forces kill seven civilians
  
• India's 'Operation all-out' to continue as more young Kashmiris become militants
  

****
**** Kashmir locked down after Indian security forces kill seven civilians
****


Kashmiris turn out for funeral of the civilians killed on Saturday (AP)

Indian-governed Kashmir was locked down with curfew-like restrictions
for a third day on Monday, after seven civilians were killed during a
shootout between militants and Indian security forces on Saturday.
Armed police and paramilitary soldiers in riot gear fanned out across
the region in anticipation of further anti-India protests and
clashes. Shops and businesses closed in other areas with no security
restrictions. Authorities stopped train services and cut cellphone
internet in Srinagar and other restive towns, and reduced connection
speeds in other parts of the Kashmir Valley, in order to prevent
anti-India demonstrations from being organized.

Seven civilians were killed and at least 36 injured in clashes that
erupted after three militants were shot dead in a gunfight in the
village of Pulwama in Indian-governed Kashmir during the early hours
on Saturday. Two soldiers were critically injured in the encounter,
and one died.

The three slain militants were identified as being associated with
Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), a home-grown indigenous militant separatist
group in Kashmir (as opposed to Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a
Pakistan-based terrorist group). One of the militants was Ahmad
Thokar, who had deserted from the Indian army to join HM. These
defections have been increasingly common recently. Tribune India and AP and Pakistan Today


****
**** India's 'Operation all-out' to continue as more young Kashmiris become militants
****

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying
previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard
template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British
colonists, and then the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars
of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.

Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died
off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past
disasters, Kashmir is repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.
Generational Dynamics predicts that
Kashmir is returning to full-scale war, re-fighting the extremely
bloody partition war of 1947.

We're now seeing the next step in this standard template, as
generations of young Muslims in Kashmir become increasingly
self-radicalized, and replace the Pakistani-supplied terrorists in
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) with indigenous Kashmiris joining Hizbul
Mujahideen (HM).

A major change occurred after the July 8 2016 death of HM leader Burhan Wani in a gunfight with the Indian army.
This triggered a continuing series of demonstrations
and riots. Since then, thousands of Kashmiris have been blinded in
one or both eyes by pellet guns used by Indian security forces, and
thousands of youths have been arrested.

In this generational Crisis era, the clashes between young Kashmiris
and Indian security forces is providing the motivation for young
people to simply disappear and join HM. Parents, according to news
reports, are forced to search jihadist social media sites to search
for pictures of their sons who have disappeared.

Burhan Wani himself had joined HM after his brother Khalid was beaten
up by Indian security forces. After he was killed, he was the
inspiration for many others to join HM.

Indian politicians and security forces, who have no understanding of
generational theory, have no idea what's going on, and are looking
desperately for a way to return to the "normalcy" of twenty years ago.
This is impossible, since 20 years ago there were still survivors of
the 1947 Partition War who were willing to accept any compromise to
prevent anything so horrible from happening again. But those
survivors are gone, and the younger generations simply want revenge.

This led India's army in June 2017 to launch "Operation All-Out."
Under this plan, the army identified 258 specific militants the would
be specifically targeted and captured, thus delivering "a lethal blow
to terrorism ... with a long-term plan for a listing peace."

When Operation All-Out was announced last year, the 258 militants were
almost all in Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Since then, hundreds of
additional militants have been identified, and this time they're indigenous youths
joining Hizbul
Mujahideen (HM).

However, the Kashmiris have been adapting to Operation All-Out.
When Indian security forces are spotted traveling to the home
of a suspected militant, the people pour out of their homes
and block them.

That's what happened on Saturday. The security forces were
targeting three HM militants, when local
youths thronged the forces and began hurling stones. This
resulted in the live fire that killed not only the militants
but at least seven civilians.

Avinash Rai Khanna, a senior Indian politician, says that Operation
All-Out will continue "until the last terrorist is eliminated." He
blamed the deaths of the civilians on Saturday on the local youths who
threw stones. According to Khanna:

<QUOTE>"Civilian killings are unfortunate, but when people
interfere in operations and try to divert the attention of the
forces, mishaps are bound to happen. We can only appeal to people
to let the forces do their job in eliminating terrorists and not
indulge in activities like stone-throwing or cause obstruction in
operations.

We had come to power in the state with an agenda of peace and
development, but had to back out when things started going
haywire. ... We want [Kashmir] terrorism-free. Operation All-out
will reach its logical end."<END QUOTE>

Khanna assumes that the "normalcy" of twenty years ago can return, but
Generational Dynamics predicts that the militancy will continue to
worsen until the 1947 Partition War in Kashmir is refought. Tribune India and The Kashmir Walla and Hindustan Times and Dawn (Pakistan)

Related Articles:

• Number of Kashmir militants surges as India's 'Operation All-Out' fails (28-Sep-2018)
  
  
• India's Kashmir locked down after 3 civilians killed by police (09-Jul-2018)
  
  
• India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war (24-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is (15-Aug-2017)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  
  
• India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue (21-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Pulwana,
Operation All-Out, Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT,
Hizbul Mujahedeen, HM, Burhan Wani, Jaish-e-Mohammad, JeM,
Partition War, Avinash Rai Khanna

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Dec-18 World View -- Ceasefire in Hodeidah seaport in Yemen war holds on the first day

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ceasefire in Hodeidah seaport in Yemen war holds on the first day
  
• The Jamal Khashoggi murder continues to affect the Yemen war
  

****
**** Ceasefire in Hodeidah seaport in Yemen war holds on the first day
****


Fishermen in the the seaport of Hodeidah on September 29 (AP)

Much to the surprise of many people, including me, both sides in the
Yemen war agreed to a ceasefire to begin on Tuesday, December 18, and
after one day it seems to be holding.

This follows months of heavy fighting in Yemen's seaport city of
Hodeidah, in the proxy war between Yemen's official
internationally-recognized government, backed by Saudi Arabia and
United Arab Emirates (UAE) versus the Houthi rebels, backed by Iran.
The ceasefire agreement was reached last week at UN-brokered talks in
Stockhold, Sweden.

The war began in 2015, when Houthi rebels from northwest Yemen took
control of the capital city Sanaa, and seized the international
airport. In response, warplanes from a mostly Arab coalition led by
Saudi Arabia bombed Houthi rebel targets.

The war escalated substantially in November of last year, when the
Houthis launched a ballistic missile, undoubtedly supplied by Iran,
that reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about
800 km from the Yemen border. The Saudis reacted with its own
escalation, a blockade of all of Yemen's land, sea and air ports.

The Houthis increased their missile attacks on Saudi cities, and then
in June of this year, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen.
The objective was to cut off supplies of Iranian weapons to
the Houthis, as well as a source of income.

The Hodeidah deep sea port on the Red Sea has become a crucial asset
to the Houthi's war effort. NGOs use the port to import badly need
humanitarian aid, including food, water and medicines, for 8 million
Yeminis. The Houthis control these imports, and charge duties that
fund their war efforts. Furthermore, the Houthis use the port to
import Iranian weapons for the war effort.

The blockade of the seaport may have been effective in preventing
money and supplies from reaching the Houthis, but it also created the
worst humanitarian disaster in the world today, since food, water and
medicines could no longer reach Yemen civilians.

Tuesday's ceasefire is not a peace deal. It's a temporary ceasefire
that both sides have agreed to so that humanitarian aid -- food, water
and medicines -- could be imported into Yemen to alleviate the
humanitarian disaster. There are international efforts to extend the
ceasefire into a complete peace deal but, assuming that can't be done,
the ceasefire may end as quickly as it started. PBS and Sky News and National Interest

****
**** The Jamal Khashoggi murder continues to affect the Yemen war
****

Every we read about slaughter, torture, rapes, jailings and atrocities
being perpetrated in many countries around the world, so it's still
startling to see how the murder of one man on October 2, Saudi
national Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi embassy in Istanbul, Turkey, is
even still remembered today, over two months since it happened.

If Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) had simply
hired a pait hit man to shoot him dead in the street outside the
embassy, it would have been an ordinary murder of the kind that
leaders like MBS, Erdogan and others regularly order. Instead, MBS
apparently arranged for something out of a horror movie -- kill him,
dismember him, dissolve the pieces in acid, ship what's left out of
the country -- and if I didn't know that atrocities like that are
common these days, I would think it was impossible. But it is
possible, it happened, and that's why so much of the world has turned
against MBS.

There are two reasons why both sides in the Yemen war agreed to the
ceasefire deal.

First is the humanitarian situation. We're used to wars where the
atrocities have become unbelievably bad, and nobody cares. But in the
case of Yemen, it seems that people on both sides do care -- enough to
permit a few days of ceasefire and opening of the Hodeidah port to
relieve at least some of the suffering.

Also, I can't prove this, but reading and listening to news reports
has given me the impression that the two sides fighting the Yemen war
do not have the same level of vitriolic hatred for one another as,
say, the two sides in the Syrian war. I read and hear lots of news
reports about battles and wars in lots of countries, and there's no
question that this war has been extremely bloody, but there seems to
be something lacking in the level of vitriolic hatred. As I said,
this is a feeling, and I can't prove it.

The second reason is that the Khashoggi murder has motivated the
Senate in Washington to pass a resolution directing president Trump to
end American support for the Saudis in Yemen. The measure is purely
symbolic, since it would be vetoed, but the fact that the Senate
passed it has put pressure on MBS to agree to a ceasefire.

The US has a long-standing relationship with Saudi Arabia, dating back
to the 1930s, where the US is committed to provide security while the
Saudis are committed to providing oil. The relationship has lasted
through many crises and, in the end, no one in Washington wants this
to be the crisis that ends it. AP and Washington Post and Axios

Related Articles:

• The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war (08-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Yemen's Houthi missile attack on Riyadh called a 'dangerous escalation' (06-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Saudis target women and children in Yemen to make them 'shiver' for generations (28-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Brief generational history of South Yemen (29-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Hodeidah, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Iran, Houthis,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Jamal Khashoggi,
Mohammed bin Salman, MBS

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Dec-18 World View -- DR Congo's Kabila manipulates election to stay in power as Ebola spreads

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila appoints his own personal 'Dmitry Medvedev' to stay in power
  
• Ebola outbreak in DR Congo worsens
  

****
**** DR Congo's Joseph Kabila appoints his own personal 'Dmitry Medvedev' to stay in power
****


Women walk past a campaign poster of Joseph Kabila’s chosen successor as president of DRC, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, in Kinshasa on Dec 18 (AFP)

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is scheduled to hold a
presidential election on Sunday, and this time, Joseph Kabila isn't a
candidate. That's because he's already been president for two 5-year
terms, and the constitution he can't run again.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin had the same problem in 2008. After
serving two consecutive terms as president, Putin was no longer
constitutionally allowed to run for president again in 2008. So Putin
arranged for Dmitry Medvedev to win the election for president in
2008, so that Medvedev would appoint Putin as prime minister. In
2012, Putin admitted that the whole thing was a scam in order to keep
himself in power, and that Medvedev was just a puppet. He ran for
president again in 2012 and won, and then appointed Medvedev as prime
minister.

Joseph Kabila became president in 2001 after his father, Laurent
Kabila, was assassinated. He ran for reelection in 2006, and did the
same in 2011. When his mandate ran out in December, 2016, he refused
to step down. Instead, he pulled a breathtaking stunt by doing
everything possible to prevent new elections from taking place, and
then claimed that he couldn't step down because there hadn't been any
elections to select a president to replace him.

The country was close to civil war, but the Catholic Church intervened
and brokered an agreement: Elections would be held in December of 2017
to choose Kabila's successor, and this time Kabila would really step
down. However, the agreement was a farce: It was signed by members of
Kabila's government, but it wasn't even signed by Kabila himself.
Kabila pulled the same stunt in December, 2017, by doing nothing to
prepare for an election, then said he couldn't step down, because
there hadn't been any elections.

So this time there's apparently going to be an election, but Kabila
has pulled a different stunt. He's arranged for his own puppet,
Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, a former interior minister, to run for
president. Shadary was responsible for a violent, deadly crackdown on
anti-Kabila protests in 2017, and so he's under sanctions by the
European Union.

Corruption in DRC is rampant. Kabila and his family own, either
partially or wholly, more than 80 companies and businesses
in the country and abroad. He and his
children own more than 71,000 hectares (175,444 acres) of farmland.
His family owns diamond mines, a part of the country's largest mobile
phone network, companies that mine mineral deposits, gold and
limestone, a luxury hotel, stakes in an airline, a share of the
country's banks, and a fast-food franchise. With tentacles reaching
into so many businesses, it's not surprising that Kabila is willing to
use any method -- massacres, atrocities, jailings, torture -- to stay
in power.

Few people doubt Kabila's plan -- that Shadary become president for a
term, so that Kabila can run again after Shadary's term ends, acting
as Kabila's puppet in the same way that Medvedev served as Putin's
puppet.

Shadary may lose the election. He has no charisma, and he has no
experience in politics. He's a nobody. However, he's expected to win
anyway because there are two major candidates running against him, and
over a dozen minor candidates, and they're expected to split the
opposition vote, giving Shadary (and Kabila) the victory.

Kabila has banned election rallies by the opposition. Al Jazeera and Council on Foreign Relations and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Congo's Kabila and Burundi's Nkurunziza use violence and corruption to stay in power (25-Apr-2018)
  
  
• DR Congo boycotts its own international humanitarian conference for DR Congo (14-Apr-2018)
  
  
• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila brings the art of power and corruption to new heights (24-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Russia's Putin confirms that he'll appoint Medvedev to be prime minister (16-Dec-2011)
  

****
**** Ebola outbreak in DR Congo worsens
****

Officials in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have now reported 549
total Ebola cases and 326 deaths. Eighty-two suspected cases are
under investigation.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), "The outbreak is
intensifying in Butembo and Katwa, and new clusters are emerging
elsewhere. Over the last 21 days (25 November to 16 December 2018),
120 confirmed and probable cases were reported from 14 health zones,
the majority of which were reported from the major urban centres and
towns in Katwa (27), Beni (27), Butembo (17), Komanda (16) and
Mabalako (12)."

The situation in North Kivu province is the worst possible scenario.
There is a major ethnic war in progress, and Ebola is now spreading in
the densely populated city of Beni, which became the epicenter of the
pandemic. However, the number of cases in Beni seems to have peaked,
while the disease has spread to the south and Butembo may be the new
epicenter.

The entire region is a war zone, and over one million people have been
driven from their homes by armed rebel groups, the Allied Democratic
Forces (ADF), fighting government troops allied with Joseph Kabila.
The fighting is preventing doctors and experts from reaching infected
people, in order to educate the population and do contact tracing.
Without contact tracing, there is no way to stop or slow the spread of
the disease.

The Ebola outbreak has been growing, but so far it's been confined to
DRC. North Kivu is on the border with Uganda, and many people cross
the border between Uganda and DRC each day. It's feared that Ebola
will cross the border with the people, but that hasn't happened yet.
According to one resident of the village of Mpondwe in Uganda, just
across a bridge from the village of Lhubiriha: "I'm scared. Ebola
hasn't reached our village but I hear it's coming." AFP and Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRAP) and AP and CNN

Related Articles:

• Ebola in DR Congo spreads southward to large cities (11-Dec-2018)
  
  
• World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread Ebola rapidly in DR Congo (26-Sep-2018)
  
  
• In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo (25-Aug-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Joseph Kabila, Laurent Kabila, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev,
Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO, North Kivu,
Beni, Butembo, Allied Democratic Forces, ADF,
Lhubiriha, Uganda, Mpondwe

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Dec-18 World View -- China hackers collect data on hundreds of millions of Americans and Westerners

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China hackers collect data on hundreds of millions of Americans and Westerners
  
• China cracks down on Twitter
  
• China extends its 'social credit score' system to Americans and Westerners
  
• Steve Bannon: Chinese engineers working on American weapons systems
  
• Huawei chairman challenges US to prove they're a security risk
  

****
**** China hackers collect data on hundreds of millions of Americans and Westerners
****


Poster showing Chinese hackers displayed at Justice Dept. press conference on Thursday

The Dept. of Justice on Thursday accused China of a massive
international hacking scheme that penetrated commercial and military
systems in at least 12 countries, including Brazil, Canada, Finland,
France, Germany, India, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Arab
Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

An indictment charged two Chinese nationals, Zhu Hua and Zhang
Shilong, with conspiracy to commit computer intrusions, conspiracy to
commit wire fraud, and aggravated identity theft.

According to the indictment:

<QUOTE>"Over the course of the Technology Theft Campaign,
which began in or about 2006, Zhu, Zhang, and their coconspirators
in the APT10 Group successfully obtained unauthorized access to
the computers of more than 45 technology companies and
U.S. Government agencies based in at least 12 states, including
Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, New York,
Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Virginia and Wisconsin. The
APT10 Group stole hundreds of gigabytes of sensitive data and
information from the victims’ computer systems, including from at
least the following victims: seven companies involved in aviation,
space and/or satellite technology; three companies involved in
communications technology; three companies involved in
manufacturing advanced electronic systems and/or laboratory
analytical instruments; a company involved in maritime technology;
a company involved in oil and gas drilling, production, and
processing; and the NASA Goddard Space Center and Jet Propulsion
Laboratory. In addition to those victims who had information
stolen, Zhu, Zhang, and their co-conspirators successfully
obtained unauthorized access to computers belonging to more than
25 other technology-related companies involved in, among other
things, industrial factory automation, radar technology, oil
exploration, information technology services, pharmaceutical
manufacturing, and computer processor technology, as well as the
U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Finally, the APT10 Group compromised more than 40 computers in
order to steal sensitive data belonging to the Navy, including the
names, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, salary
information, personal phone numbers, and email addresses of more
than 100,000 Navy personnel."<END QUOTE>

Most of the news coverage has focused on the theft of commercial and
military technology, and how that will be used by China's state-run
companies and military. These technologies will be useful to the
Chinese as they build weapons systems and prepare to launch a war on
the United States.

But for this article, I want to focus on the theft of personal data on
Americans (and citizens of other Western countries).

This indictment says that a hack of navy computers stole names, Social
Security numbers, dates of birth, salary information, personal phone
numbers, and email addresses of more than 100,000 Navy personnel.

I recently described the Marriott hotel data breach by China's spy agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS)
which stole names, addresses, telephone numbers,
credit card numbers, passport numbers, birthdates, passport photos,
hotel arrival and departure dates, and information on where people
traveled and with whom on roughly 500 million guests.

Other data breaches attributed to China's MSS include a 2017 Equifax
hack that collected detailed credit information on 145 million people,
a 2013 Target breach that exposed payment card and contact information
for 60 million customers, and a 2015 hack of the Office of Personnel
Management (OPM) that collected detailed personal information on more
than 20 million government employees, family members and applicants.
There were other breaches of health-care institutions, including
Anthem and CareFirst, that provided health data.

China's military is creating a huge database of hundreds of millions
of Americans. Such a database would be illegal in the United States,
but it's being done by the Chinese. Dept of Justice and Dept of Justice and UK government and CNBC

****
**** China cracks down on Twitter
****

China's government has complete control over databases and servers in
China, and can delete messages at will on Chinese social media
platforms. But social media platforms outside of China, such as
Twitter and Facebook, should be out of reach of the Chinese, right?
In fact, since Twitter and Facebook are blocked in China, and only a
person with sophisticated software skills can get to them from China,
the Chinese can simply ignore then, right?

Starting in early November, China's government launched a large
campaign to remove from Twitter tweets that the government finds
offensive. Many of these tweets were written years ago. Apparently
this was done very rapidly, in order to maintain the element of
surprise before Twitter users had a chance to arrange for all their
tweets to be safely backed up.

If the owner of the Twitter account is in China, the government
security thugs simply arrested him, brought him into a police station,
and demanded that he access his Twitter account immediately and delete
all his tweets. This apparently happened to quite a few people.

In many cases, however, the Chinese government was able to delete
tweets from an account without the participation of the account owner,
or knowing his password. The methods by which they did this are a
sketchy in the reports, but I believe the following is how they
accomplished it.

In most online systems, you can change or reset your password
automatically, and then the system sends you an e-mail message where
you have to click on something to confirm the change. Only the owner
of that e-mail account should have access to it, so that should
provide a secure means of confirmation.

However, if your e-mail account is in China, then the Chinese
government can gain control of it, and then make the password change
on the Twitter account, and confirm it on the e-mail account,
without you even knowing.

However, many online services go further and also use the telephone.
Instead of (or in addition to) sending you an e-mail message. the
online service will ring your telephone, using a phone number for you
that it has on file, and then the recorded voice says, "press 1 to
confirm or 2 to cancel," or something like that.

In America, that should be secure means of confirmation, since only
you can answer that phone number. But if it's a Chinese phone number
then, as in the case of e-mail, the military can take control of your
phone number and then use it to confirm a password change.

There's one more method that China's military could be using. If you
have Chinese-manufactured phone from Huawei or ZTE, it's believed that
these phones have back doors that the Chinese military can use to
access data, or even to control the phone. This would provide another
method for confirming a password change.

The point is that China's military is willing to use any means it can
to steal information, and they're willing to try everything, no matter
how obscure, until something works. That's why they already have a
database containing personal information of hundreds of millions of
Americans.

Last week, I received a letter from Bowker Corp. saying that their
database had been hacked, and my data might have been compromised.
There are companies being hacked successfully every day, sometimes by
kids in basements, sometimes by the Russians, and sometimes by the
Chinese.

The Chinese in particular are using every technique available to them
to get as much data on ordinary Americans as they can, and merge it
into a database that they can access at any time they want to track
someone. Human Rights Watch and Radio Free Asia and Hong Kong Free Press and China Change

****
**** China extends its 'social credit score' system to Americans and Westerners
****

There has been a lot of news recently about China's "Social Credit
Score" system that has been rumored for a long time and was officially
announced in December. China is creating a large "big data" database
of all of its 1.3 billion people, accumulating data from a variety of
departments and agencies, combining the data in individual data agency
databases into a large database, and using it to crease a credit score
for every Chinese citizen.

The system will reward "pro-social behaviors," such as volunteer work
and blood donations. The system will penalize things like violating
traffic laws or charging under-the-table fees. Agencies like tourism
bodies, business regulators and transit authorities are supposed to
work together. These agencies will provide data on private citizens
to the central system, and will then use the credit score to reward or
punish citizens. In fact, the system is already partially in place,
in that people with unacceptable credit scores have already been
blocked from booking more than 11 million flights and 4 million
high-speed train trips. According to reports, other punishments
include slower internet speeds, reducing access to good schools for
individuals or their children, banning people from certain jobs,
preventing booking at certain hotels and losing the right to own pets.

Many Americans and Westerners view this system with little more than
curiosity, thinking that applies only to Chinese citizens in China, so
it doesn't matter to them.

Starting with Thursday's indictments against Chinese hackers, it's
becoming increasingly clear that the Chinese military is going a lot
farther, and creating databases of hundreds of millions of people in
other countries, whether American, or others. Of course, the data on
foreign citizens is not readily available to the military in the way
that domestic data is, but the Chinese are employing increasingly
sophisticated methods to collect this data on foreign citizens,
whether hacking Western commercial or government databases, or using
its vast population studying and working overseas to collect data and
information and pass it back to China. Bloomberg and Xinhua
and Independent (London) and Life Site News

****
**** Steve Bannon: Chinese engineers working on American weapons systems
****

China has a massive population of 1.3 billion people and, as I've
written several times in the past, China considers these people to be
"magic weapons" to be used in other countries to infiltrate
government, military and commercial organizations, and to influence
these organizations as well as to collect information about them to be
sent back to China's military.

Steve Bannon, formerly the chief strategist and advisor to president
Donal Trump, has researched the extent that Chinese engineers are
working on American weapons systems.

According to Bannon, many Chinese workers start out as students in
American colleges, through Confucius Institutes, controlled by the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through Beijing's international coercive
propaganda agency, the United Front Work Department (UFWD),
and funded by China's military. Every
aspect of the Confucian Institutes is tightly controlled by the CCP.
Teachers and teaching materials are all supplied by China. Taiwan and
Tibet are portrayed as undisputed territories of China, with no
alternate views permitted. The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the
one million Uighurs in re-education camps, the human rights abuses in
China are all forbidden subjects.

Bannon says that Chinese students study in colleges to get access to
the latest scientific research to be passed back to the CCP. These
students become contractors to get access to the latest American
weapons systems, once again for the CCP. According to Bannon, Defense
Department reports on the infiltration of China into our research
universities and our weapons labs shows extensive infiltration:

<QUOTE>"I don't think people understand these reports. These
reports are essentially declassified reports that showed that the
300,000 students are here on student visas and the 10,000
contractors that we have the weapons labs -- I think that up to
2/3 of them could be intelligence assets, intelligence officers or
agents.

This is political correctness and greed and avarice writ large.
How did contractors-- and let's call them out-- Booz Allen and all
these contractors-- how do these contractors and these big
government programs get so many Chinese nationals working into our
weapons labs? Our weapons labs are at the cutting edge of national
security. How did it happen? ...

The political correctness of it all-- the Financial Times of
London leaked the other day that my colleague, Stephen Miller,
who's a terrific young man, actually had the plan in place to get
all 300,000 Chinese students out of the country with a way to cut
the visas off right away. Not that we we're going to execute on
it, but it was even in thinking.

And obviously, it got leaked. In the Times, it goes around the
State Department, et cetera. Look at all the appeasers. I am so
glad. I take great pride that someone like Susan Thornton now owns
a farm up in Maine because she was part of this kind of rational
accommodationist, this softness in the Defense Department, in the
State Department, in our intelligence services that basically went
along with what China wanted to do and looked the other
way."<END QUOTE>

A book titled "Silent Invasion: How China Is Turning Australia into a
Puppet State," written by Clive Hamilton, documents the extent to
which Chinese nationals have infiltrated Australia's government, and
influences its policies. Several publishers withdrew offers to
publish the book because of pressure from the Chinese Communist Party.
As one Australian commenter pointed out, he could walk into any
bookstore or library in Australia and find a dozen books that accused
the CIA of controlling Australia's government and institutions, and no
one would care. However, just one book about China caused a furious,
threatening response from China. ( "26-Feb-18 World View -- New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations"
)

The book was finally published in February, thanks to pressure from
alarmed members of the Australian parliament's national security
committee. His research revealed evidence of CCP influence and
infiltration in politics, culture, real estate, agriculture,
universities, unions, and even primary schools. The book lists more
than 40 former and sitting Australian politicians allegedly doing the
work of China's totalitarian Government, if sometimes unwittingly.

Another book documented similar infiltration into New Zealand's
government. ( "16-Feb-18 World View -- Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government"
)

There are some changes in the works. Some colleges have severed
relations with Confucius Institutes, and the 2019 National Defense
Authorization Act, signed in August, contains provisions barring any
U.S. university from using Pentagon resources for any program
involving Confucius Institutes. In many cases, this will force
universities to choose between receiving funding the Pentagon and
funding from China's military.

The information provided by China's "magic weapons," the Chinese
nationals working and studing in the West, can provide a great deal
more information to add to the data collected by hacks of hotel
databases and other sources. ZeroHedge and RealVision

Related Articles:

• University of N. Florida and Pentagon cut ties with China's Confucius Institutes (30-Sep-2018)
  
  
• China recklessly arrests a second Canadian without justification (13-Dec-2018)
  
  
• New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations (26-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government (16-Feb-2018)
  

****
**** Huawei chairman challenges US to prove they're a security risk
****

Several countries, including the United States, Britain, Canada,
Australia, New Zealand, and Japan have banned or are considering
banning routers and other equipment from Huawei Technologies Ltd., the
world's largest global maker of network gear, because it's feared that
these products contain "back doors" that allow them to be secretly
accessed and controlled from China. The result is that Huawei is
being shut out of supplying products for the latest 5G networks.

As I've said in the past, I've spent a part of my career as a senior
software engineer developing chip-level operating system software for
embedded systems, so I know exactly how any chip or any electronic
device can be turned into a tool for espionage. Furthermore, I can
tell you that not only is it doable, it's not even particularly
difficult for someone with the right skills.

Now Ken Hu, the chairman of Huawei, is challenging America and other
companies to provide evidence that Huawei products are in fact
security risks. He complains that the accusations stem from “ideology
and geopolitics.” He warned that excluding Huawei from
fifth-generation networks in Australia and other markets would hurt
consumers by raising prices and slowing innovation.

According to Hu:

<QUOTE>"There has never been any evidence that our equipment
poses a security threat. ...We have never accepted complaints from
any government to damage the networks or business of any of our
customers."<END QUOTE>

The problem is that Huawei could develop a chipset that works exactly
as described in the public specifications. The chipset could be
subjected to thousands of tests, and they would all work perfectly.
But what Huawei could do is install a "backdoor" into the chipset.
When the chip receives, say, a secret 1024-bit code, then it will
execute commands sent to it by Chinese engineers. Thus, the Chinese
are then in control of any devices with Huawei chips, and it cannot be
detected until it's too late.

Now, as everyone knows, I'm a very helpful kind of guy, and I want to
be helpful to Chairman Hu, and tell him how he can regain the
confidence of the West that his chips and devices do not contain back
doors. And I offer this advice in the spirit of peace, cooperation
and friendship between America and China.

Hu has the burden of proof backwards. He's asking America to prove
there's a security risk. Actually, the burden is on him to do the
opposite -- prove affirmatively that there's no security risk. How
does he do that? Here's how:

• Hire teams of Western software and hardware engineers,
  selected by American, European, Australian, Japanese and other Western
  governments, to join the development teams in China developing Huawei
  products. These people will be hired to do real work, and participate
  fully in all aspects of Huawei's hardware and software development.
  
  This should not be a problem, since China already sends Chinese
  workers to do the same things in American companies. So Ken Hu should
  be quite comfortable doing this.
  
  
• The Western engineers must have full 100% access to all software
  and firmware source code, so that they can verify that the code
  contains no back doors. In addition, they should have full access to
  the source code for all the Quality Assurance tests that are performed
  on all Huawei products. Once again, this is the same as for Chinese
  workers in America.
  
  
• The Western engineers must have full access to the entire release
  cycle, so that they can reliably verify that all the executable code
  going into the devices is exactly the code that was compiled from the
  source code that they've already inspected.
  
  
• Of course, while they're working in China, the Western engineers
  should have full access to the internet so that they can communicate
  with the American government, and let them know immediately if they
  find anything suspicious. Again, this is the same as the access that
  Chinese workers in the West have.

This will permit Ken Hu to prove that Huawei's products pose no
security risks, and he can then ask that the bans to their use can be
lifted.

I hope that Ken Hu will implement these suggestions, which have been
offered in the spirit of peace, cooperation and friendship between the
American and Chinese people, and because I would like to help him get
the Huawei ban lifted. AP

Related Articles:

• Canada arrests the chief financial officer of China powerhouse Huawei (07-Dec-2018)
  
  
• China recklessly arrests a second Canadian without justification (13-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Arrest of Meng Wanzhou of China's Huawei has increasingly serious implications (08-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations (26-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China,
Marriot Hotel, Ministry of State Security, MSS,
Zhu Hua, Zhang Shilong, APT10, Twitter, Facebook,
Social Credit Score, Steve Bannon,
Clive Hamilton, Australia, Silent Invasion, New Zealand,
Huawei, Ken Hu

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

&&3 *** bb: gde181222b 22-Dec-18 World View -- China's CPEC project in Pakistan turns military, marginalizing Balochistan

*** 22-Dec-18 World View -- China's CPEC project in Pakistan turns military, marginalizing Balochistan
22-Dec-18 World View -- China's CPEC project in Pakistan turns military, marginalizing Balochistan

<!---- ************* Start ****** -->

*** 22-Dec-18 World View -- China's CPEC project in Pakistan turns military, marginalizing Balochistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's CPEC project marginalizes Pakistan's restive Balochistan province
  
• NY Times: CPEC in Pakistan will build military jets and weaponry for China
  

****
**** China's CPEC project marginalizes Pakistan's restive Balochistan province
****


China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Balochistan province in the southwest occupies 44% of the land area, but is being marginalized by CPEC. (Independent.in)

Ever since the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was launched on
May 22, 2013, both the Chinese and Pakistan government promised that
the project would bring wealth to Balochistan province, home of
Pakistan's marginalized ethnic Baloch people.

Balochistan officials have been complaining for years that Balochistan
is being shortchanged, and claim that both Pakistan and China denied.
However, it couldn't be verified, because the details of the CPEC deal
between Pakistan and China are top secret, just like all the deals in
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) program. Many of these deals
are assumed to be "debt traps" for the countries involved, ensnaring a
country in debt to China that can't be paid back, giving China
leverage to take control of land and other assets in the client
country.

However, the Balochistan Cabinet were stunned on December 10 when some
of the secrecy was pulled back in a briefing, revealing the following:

• Of the $62 billion CPEC project, only a minuscule $5.6 billion
  is allocated to Balochistan, even though Balochistan is by far the
  largest province in Pakistan, comprising 44% of Pakistan's total land
  mass.
  
  
• Of the allocated $5.6 billion, less than $1 billion has been spent
  in over five years since CPEC was launched, in only two projects.
  
  
• There was no progress on the Western Route of the corridor as none
  of the roads that are part of the so-called “western alignment” have
  seen any work. This is the part of CPEC that would be most heavily in
  Balochistan. Instead, all projects have been diverted to the eastern
  route, benefiting Punjab and Sindh provinces.
  
  
• One of the two projects that have begun is the Hubco Coal Power
  Plant. However, even this project isn't benefiting Balochistan, since
  the generated power is going to other provinces.
  
  
• The other project is the Gwadar Port Project, on the Indian
  Ocean. This is the crown jewel of CPEC, since the purpose of CPEC
  is to allow China, to transfer commercial and military goods
  and equipment overland from China's Xinjian province to Gwadar
  port and return. This project does not benefit Balochistan either,
  and in fact has caused a severe drinking-water shortage that
  was supposed to be fixed with desalination plants, but the
  desalinization plant projects haven't materialized.
  
  
• Of the revenues to be generated by the Gwadar Port, 91% will go to
  China, and 9% will go to Pakistan.
  
  
• Since neither of these two projects benefits Balochistan, the
  percentage of $62 billion for the CPEC project that benefits
  Balochistan is less than 1%.

Pakistan government officials claim that the lack of funding to
Balochistan are "concocted stories" to damage the China-Pakistan
relationship, and that they are "fully committed" to more investment
in Balochistan.

The explosive report showed that the most extreme claims of Baloch
activists have turned out to be true. The Balochistan Liberation Army
(BLA), a separatist terror group, have opposed the project since its
inception, claiming that Balochistan was being "colonized" by Punjabi
and Chinese workers. ( "6-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan's Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claims credit for killing CPEC workers"
)

Insurgents trying to disrupt construction of CPEC projects in
Balochistan have killed 66 persons since 2014. The BLA have been
conducting a series of terror attacks on Chinese and Punjabi workers,
and are promising to continue.
Dawn and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Asia Times

Related Articles:

• Pakistan's Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claims credit for killing CPEC workers (06-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Chinese workers in Pakistan injured in terrorist bombing (15-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC (07-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan overwhelmed and China alarmed over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (12-Dec-2017)
  

****
**** NY Times: CPEC in Pakistan will build military jets and weaponry for China
****

China has demanded that all the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) deals
be kept top secret, and a recent report has revealed one of
the reasons why. BRI is supposed to be building roads and
bridges and ports.

But according to documents uncovered by the NY Times, China and
Pakistan plan to create a special economic zone under CPEC in Pakistan
to produce a new generation of fighter jets, navigation systems, radar
systems, and onboard weapons. This would expand China and Pakistan’s
current cooperation on the JF-17 fighter jet, which is assembled at
Pakistan’s military-run Kamra Aeronautical Complex in Punjab province.

China has already signed an agreement with Pakistan to build a network
of satellite stations to establish the Beidou Navigation System as an
alternative to the American GPS network. This will be major
technology that China provides to numerous countries in Asia, Africa
and Europe, and strengthens the military space capabilities of the
Chinese military.

Revelation of the military deal also resolves a mystery. As we've
reported numerous times, Pakistan is on the brink of bankruptcy, and
Pakistan’s first debt repayments to China are set for next year,
starting at about $300 million and gradually increasing to reach about
$3.2 billion by 2026. Pakistan has been begging for money from China,
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, and all have refused. Finally,
Pakistan asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for another loan,
but one of the conditions of an IMF loan is that every detail of the
relationship between Pakistan and China would have to be revealed.

Apparently China has had a change of heart. The Chinese Embassy in
Islamabad demanded that CPEC deals be kept secret and promised to loan
more money to Pakistan.

Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "allies" of America, India, Russia, Iran
and the West will be at war with the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries. China is Pakistan's "all-weather friend,"
whose friendship is "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans,
stronger than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight."
This military relationship brings the two countries ever closer
together. NY Times and The News (Pakistan) and India Times

Related Articles

• Pakistan fails to get agreement from IMF for a bailout (27-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis (25-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC (07-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is (15-Aug-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, China,
China Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Balochistan, Balochistan Liberation Army, BLA,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, India,
Hubco Coal Power Plant, Gwadar Port Project,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Punjab,
Kamra Aeronautical Complex, Beidou Navigation System

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Dec-18 World View -- Al-Shabaab double bombing kills 16 people in Mogadishu, Somalia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Al-Shabaab double bombing kills 16 people in Mogadishu, Somalia
  
• Somalia's 'Black Hawk Down' event affects US policy today
  

****
**** Al-Shabaab double bombing kills 16 people in Mogadishu, Somalia
****


Site of Mogadishu bombing on Saturday (AP)

A massive car bomb detonated at a military checkpoint near Somalia's
presidential palace in the capital city Mogadishu on Saturday,
followed by a smaller explosion nearby. At least 16 people were
killed, and dozens injured. The bombings appeared to target people
heading to work.

Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda linked terror group, took responsibility for
the attacks. One of those killed was prominent journalist Awil Dahir
Salad.

The attack comes a week after six airstrikes from US warplanes killed
62 al-Shabaab militants, according to the US military.

The US has a huge military base in neighboring Djibouti, from which
the US has launched 40 air strikes so far this year, compared to 35 in
2017. It's estimated that at least 400 people have been killed in air
strikes since the beginning of 2017, far more than the previous 10
years combined.

US airstrikes have forced al-Shabaab to change its tactics. Instead
of targeting Somali government with mass attacks and assassinations,
which expose its fighters to airstrikes, they've instead increase
urban guerrilla warfare of terrorist bombings.

Al-Shabaab (AS) is an indigenous jihadist terror group which has
pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda. There is a separate jihadist group in
Puntland (northern Somalia) affiliated with ISIS called "IS Somalia"
or ISS (Abnaa ul-Calipha). However, ISS has had nowhere near the
success in blowing people up that AS has had.

Both groups have been increasingly demanding that businesses pay them
taxes, in exchange for "protection" from bombings and terror attacks.
Thus, both AS and ISS are increasingly acting more and more like Mafia
criminals, rather than pious jihadists. AP and
Reuters and BBC and Hiraal Institute



****
**** Somalia's 'Black Hawk Down' event affects US policy today
****

In 1988, a full-scale generational crisis civil war began in Somalia
which, combined with a growing famine, was killing tens of thousands
of people. In the final days of his presidency, George H.W. Bush
committed ordered more than 20,000 troops into Somalia to calm the
situation and to “save thousands of innocents from death.”

As always happens in a generational crisis war, the situation
deteriorated, and in October 1993, elite American troops launched a
disastrous raid in the Somali capital Mogadishu. Two American Black
Hawk helicopters were shot down using rocket-propelled grenades. Some
of the survivors were rescued, but two pilots were attacked by a mob
of thousands of Somalis who hacked them to death with machetes and
dragged their mutilated bodies through the streets as trophies. The
result was a 15-hour battle that killed hundreds of Somalis, as well
as about 18 Americans and two UN soldiers.

The "Black Hawk Down" incident, which was later made into a movie, was
the climax of the Battle of Mogadishu and also the climax of Somalia's
civil war. Black Hawk Down shocked the American public, and caused
the US under Bill Clinton to withdraw its forces from Somalia in 1994,
and to be reluctant to intervene in African crises since then. So,
for example, the US stayed out of the massive Rwanda massacre in 1994,
which is probably just as well.

The American military's hasty retreat was viewed by many as a sign of
weakness -- that the United States could not tolerate military
casualties. In 1996, Osama bin Laden taunted the Clinton
administration about its withdrawal: "You left carrying
disappointment, humiliation, defeat and your dead with you."

After the terror attack on 9/11/2001, US Special Forces began
gradually returning to Africa. By 2016, 17% of all Special
Forces deployed overseas were in Africa.

About 40 American soldiers were sent to Somalia in March 2017, the
largest deployment of American troops to the Horn of Africa since
Black Hawk Down in 1993. Their job was not combat, but was rather to
train the Somalis to fight al-Shabaab on their own, supported by
American airstrikes.

Today, 17 years after 9/11, it seems clear that the "war on terror" is
not being won, and this is causing the Trump administration to
reevaluate its military policies. This has resulted in announcements
of troop withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan, and may lead to other
announcements. Washington Post and AP

Related Articles:

• New Somalia terror bombings again raise question of US military strategy in Africa (29-Oct-2017)
  
  
• US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down (15-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Somalia's Al-Shabaab claims responsibility for religion-based Kenya attack (23-Nov-2014)
  
  
• Minnesota link to Kenya shopping mall attack raises U.S. fears (23-Sep-2013)
  
  
• Female suicide bomber attacks Somalia's National Theatre (05-Apr-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Somalia, Mogadishu, Djibouti,
al-Shabaab, AS, IS Somalia, ISS, Abnaa ul-Calipha,
Battle of Mogadishu, Black Hawk Down, Rwanda,
Osama bin Laden, Syria, Afghanistan

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Dec-18 World View -- Generational Dynamics analysis of the troop withdrawal from Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Donald Trump's announcement of troop withdrawal signals end of 'War on Terror'
  
• Generational Dynamics analysis of the troop withdrawal from Syria
  
• The future of ISIS and the Kurds
  
• The future of Afghanistan
  
• The future of Generational Dynamics
  

****
**** Donald Trump's announcement of troop withdrawal signals end of 'War on Terror'
****


James Mattis and Donald Trump (Reuters)

President Donald Trump's announcements of troop withdrawal from Syria
and partial troop withdrawal from Afghanistan signal a major policy
change, in that it signals the end of the "War on Terror" that began
on 9/11/2001.

The announcement is being widely ridiculed by the mainstream press and
politicians, most of whom probably couldn't find Syria on a map if
they had to.

Much of the ridicule followed from the letter of resignation from
Defense Secretary James Mattis, following Trump's announcement:

<QUOTE>"My views on treating allies with respect and also
being clear-eyed about both malign actors and strategic
competitors are strongly held and informed by over four decades of
immersion in these issues. We must do everything possible to
advance an international order that is most conducive to our
security, prosperity and values, and we are strengthened in this
effort by the solidarity of our alliances.

Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose
views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I
believe it is right for me to step down from my
position."<END QUOTE>

Brett McGurk, special presidential envoy for the global coalition to
defeat ISIS, also resigned. Typical remarks from the mainstream media
are that the Trump White House is now in a downward spiral because
Mattis was "the only adult in the room."

With this major change of policy occurring right at the end of 2018,
an end-of-the-year look at events is in order. As the end of the year
approaches, this is a good time for a thorough review of many
Generational Dynamics principles and to see how these principles apply
to an in-depth analysis of the announced troop withdrawal from Syria.
Military Times and Fox News

****
**** Generational Dynamics analysis of the troop withdrawal from Syria
****

In the last two years, I've seen and heard one hysterical condemnation
of president Trump's policies after another in the mainstream media,
mostly from so-called "experts" who have no clue what's going on in
the world. These people have been wrong almost every time, but that
never stops them.

On the other hand, I've written thousands of generational analyses in
the last 15 years, and they've all turned out to be true or are
trending true. None has turned out to be wrong.

The withdrawal from Syria signals a major change in policy that has
completely baffled the mainstream "experts." So these people have
been repeatedly wrong time after time for two years, and I've been
repeatedly right for two years, so I'm pretty sure I'm going to be
right again, and they're going to be wrong again. So, Dear Reader,
believe whom you wish.

In the last two years, I've pointed out many times that Trump's
policies make perfect sense when viewed from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics. Trump himself is familiar with Generational
Dynamics analyses, because he was educated about them by his former
chief strategist and advisor Steve Bannon, with whom I worked off and
on for several years. And, once again, despite the fact that the
mainstream "experts" are totally baffled, Trump's policies in Syria
make perfect sense from the point of view of Generational Dynamics.

Actually, this one is pretty easy. The Generational Dynamics
prediction has always been that we're headed for a "Clash of
Civilizations world war." The "allies" will be the United States,
India, Russia and Iran, while the "axis" will be China, Pakistan, and
the Sunni Muslim countries.

I've written about the reasons for this hundreds of times, and the
summary behind the reasoning is as follows: China is very closely
allied with Pakistan, which is very closely allied with the Sunni
states. China and India are bitter enemies, as are Pakistan and
India. Russia and India are very closely allied, and India is very
closely allied with Iran, as Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims
going back to the Battle of Karbala in 680. Connecting the dots, the
US is going to be allied with India, Russia and Iran, versus China,
Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states. If that seems surprising,
remember that Russia was our bitter enemy before WW II, was our ally
during WW II, and was our bitter enemy after WW II, so you can't judge
from today's political alignments how nations will act when they're
facing an existential crisis in the form of a generational crisis war.

So that's the Generational Dynamics prediction, and we assume that
Trump is aware of it and believes it, as he should. Now we take note
of the of the following:

• ISIS is not an existential threat to America.
  
• Al-Qaeda is not an existential threat to America.
  
• Iran is not an existential threat to America.
  
• Russia is not an existential threat to America. (It may
  be an existential threat to Ukraine, but not to America.)
  
• The Taliban in Afghanistan is not an existential threat
  to America.
  
• There will always be disparate individuals conducting terrorist
  attacks, and in that sense the "war on terror" can never be won.
  
• China, backed by North Korea, IS an existential threat to
  America.

So if you're baffled by Trump's withdrawal policy, just read the above
list. When you look at that list, it makes perfect sense to withdraw
some resources from Syria and Afghanistan, in order to allocate them
to the approaching war with China. It makes perfect sense to prepare
for the coming preemptive attack by China on the United States.
Keeping troops in Syria does not do that.

So why did Mattis and McGurk leave? I don't know for sure, of course,
but I assume that Mattis and McGurk don't believe that we're headed
for a war with China. They're wrong. I assume that many people
reading this article don't believe that we're headed for a war with
China. You're wrong. If Mattis and McGurk want to focus a lot of
resources in Syria, then they're "fighting the last war." If Mattis
and McGurk are unwilling to face what's going on in the world with
China, with startling events unfolding in China almost every day, then
Mattis and McGurk should go.

On Sunday morning I listened to the news shows, and heard one "expert"
after another talk about "chaos," "Trump out of control," "Trump is
crazy," "the wheels are coming off," "Trump should be impeached," and
so on. I would be concerned, except that it's no different from what
I've heard every Sunday for two years, except that the screams today
are perhaps a bit louder and a bit more hysterical and high-pitched.

I have a theory. I think that most people are viscerally aware that
we're headed for war with China, and they can't stand to think about
it, so they become hysterical and displace their hysteria from China
to Trump. There was a similar level of hysteria in the late 1930s
directed at Franklin Roosevelt, as the war in Europe against Nazi
Germany approached. The best example was Neville Chamberlain's
promise of "Peace in our time." Washington Post

****
**** The future of ISIS and the Kurds
****

The big picture is that it makes sense to withdraw forces from Syria
in order to prepare for an inevitable war with China. But many people
believe that we have a moral obligation to protect the Kurds and to
continue to fight ISIS. (Many other people claim that we never any
business being in Syria in the first place.)

An argument that I heard several times in mainstream media is: "Trump
says ISIS is defeated and he's wrong. ISIS is still in Syria, in
Egypt, in Nigeria, in Yemen, in Afghanistan, and so forth. ISIS is
spreading around the world, and is nowhere near being defeated."

This argument was put forth by several "experts" -- college
professors, book authors, diplomats, etc. And yet, this argument is
so dumb that it serves as a good example of brainless idiocy we're
seeing as common fare today.

Let's take Egypt for example. Has ISIS really spread to Egypt? The
jihadist group in Egypt was originally the al-Qaeda linked
Bedouin-based Sinai terrorist group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM). In
2015 it changed its name to al-Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) and
changed its allegiance to ISIS. This was a change for public
relations reasons, and nothing else. It allows ABM to be associated
with an up-and-coming brand name, and it allows Amaq, the ISIS public
relations agency, to put out press releases about the group. But it's
exactly the same group. Being aligned with ISIS or aligned with
al-Qaeda is completely irrelevant. Now that ISIS is on the run, ABM
may change their allegiance back to al-Qaeda, though they'll look like
complete fools if they do. The point is that fighting ISIS in Syria
has nothing to do with fighting ABM in Egypt. The two are completely
unrelated except for a public relations link.

This is really basic, obvious stuff, that any so-called "expert"
should understand before calling himself an "expert." Instead, these
"experts" have no clue what's going on, probably couldn't pick out
Syria on map if they had to, are wrong time after time, and yet
continue to say one really dumb thing after another. It reminds me of
2007, when a survey by Congressional Quarterly and the London Times
revealed that so-called "experts" at the time didn't even know whether
al-Qaeda was a Shia or Sunni group. ( "Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans (14-Jan-2007)"
) All of this goes well
beyond ideology. It's sheer ignorance and stupidity, by people who
babble endlessly with no idea what they're saying.

So what about ISIS in Syria? Is ISIS defeated there, as Trump
claimed? ISIS mainly consists of jihadists who came to Syria to fight
against Bashar al-Assad after he began genocidal attacks and ethnic
cleansing targeting Arab Sunnis, particularly after his massive attack
on innocent women and children in a Palestinian refugee camp near
Latakia. ( "1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria"
)

In November 2016, the US announced a joint operation with the Kurdish
led Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) to recapture al-Raqqa, the ISIS
"capital city" and "Caliphate," and a city of over 300,000 people,
from ISIS. ( "7-Nov-16 World View -- US-backed Kurdish militias in Syria make surprise announcement of Raqqa operation"
)

That was the commitment that President Obama made, and President Trump
followed through on that commitment. There was no commitment to fight
ISIS forever, and there was no commitment to protect the Kurds
forever. The Kurds are better off today than they were when the joint
operation began, and ISIS has been ejected from al-Raqqa, and has been
reduced to just one of many local jihadist groups in the world.
America's commitment has been met.

I discussed some of these issues in yesterday's article on al-Shabaab in Somalia.
America has been
fighting the "war on terror" since 9/11/2001, and by one estimate,
America is still conducting counterterror operations in 76 countries.
And yet, after 17 years, the war on terror has been increasingly a
failure. As I've written many times, the current violence in the
Arab/Muslim world can be dated to three epochal events that occurred in 1979.
These were Iran's
Islamic Revolution, the Salafist attack on Saudi Arabia's Grand
Mosque, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. These three events
led to the growth of modern terrorism, including the 9/11 attacks, and
there is absolutely nothing that the US can do to stop this, certainly
not with US special forces.

Here we have one more example of so-called Mideast "experts" having
absolutely no clue what's going on. They have no idea what happened
in 1979, they go on tv and make one dumb statement after another, they
always turn out to be wrong, but it goes on anyway. That's the world
we live in.

One particularly laughable "expert" interview occurred on Sunday on
the BBC World Service. The politician made every possible criticism
of Trump and the Syria decision that he could think of. The interview
lasted about four minutes, and at different times he said that Trump
would be turning northeast Syria over to a reconstituted ISIS, and
then to Iran, and then to Russia, and then to Turkey, and also to
al-Assad. Oh really? Which one is it? And if there's a war among
all these groups, does we really want the American military to be
involved in it? On whose side? There's a war coming, no matter what
we do.

The point is that terrorism will not be stopped, and is the precursor
to a larger regional Mideast war that is coming with 100% certainty,
pitting Arabs vs Jews, Sunnis vs Shias, and various ethnic groups
against each other. This will be part of the Clash of Civilizations
world war, and nothing can be done to prevent it.

America's joint operation with the SDF to eject ISIS from al-Raqqa was
a benefit to America, to Europe, the Kurds, and the world. But it's
over now. America is in no position to fight ISIS forever, or to
protect the Kurds forever, and troop withdrawal from Syria was going
to happen sometime. Business Insider

****
**** The future of Afghanistan
****

In addition to a troop withdrawal from Syria, President Trump
announced that 7,000 of the 14,000 American troops in Afghanistan
would be brought home.

Ever since President Obama announced the troop surge into Afghanistan
in 2009, I've written repeatedly that the Taliban cannot be defeated.
This is an outcome of the 1980s Soviet war in Afghanistan and, more
importantly, the extremely bloody Afghan civil war from 1991-96. This
is yet another example of something that the mainstream so-called
"experts" are completely oblivious to, and yet these are the crucial
events to understanding what's going on today.

The events of the last ten years have shown that this war cannot be
won, and the situation is actually getting worse each year. Earlier
this month, Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the incoming head of the US
Central Command, testified that the Afghanistan war is unsustainable.

Reducing the number of American troops in Afghanistan does not end our
commitment to Afghanistan, which is to aid in the training of Afghan
soldiers to defend themselves. It does mean that the Taliban have
fewer American targets to kill, which is probably a good thing.

In the past, I've speculated that a part of President Trump's strategy
is that, as war with China and Pakistan approaches, to keep American
troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several
American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in
Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. If this is the strategy,
then removing 7,000 troops will probably not affect it. Fox News


****
**** The future of Generational Dynamics
****

At my age, I'm unable to get employment as a journalist, analyst, or a
senior software engineer, because no one wants to hire an older
person. (Actually, age discrimination in the computer industry is so
great that no one over age 45 or so can get a job anymore.) This
means that my only income source is social security, and I'm going to
run out of money in a few months, which will be the end of BOTH me and
Generational Dynamics. I've done this work for years as a public
service, but now that has to end. If you think that this work has
been valuable, then any help that anyone can provide to resolve this
situation would be greatly appreciated. Resume

Related Articles:

• Al-Shabaab double bombing kills 16 people in Mogadishu, Somalia (23-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
  
  
• US-backed Kurdish militias in Syria make surprise announcement of Raqqa operation (07-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Brief generational history of Iran and Saudi Arabia (21-May-2017)
  
  
• Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans (14-Jan-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Afghanistan, al-Raqqa,
James Mattis, Brett McGurk, Steve Bannon,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Kurds,
China, India, Pakistan, Russia, Iran, Battle of Karbala,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Neville Chamberlain, Egypt,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Bedouins, Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai,
Libya, al-Shabaab, Saudi Arabia, Grand Mosque, Iran, Turkey

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Dec-18 World View -- Christmas in Bethlehem is the biggest in years

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Christmas in Bethlehem is the biggest in years
  
• DJIA falls 650 points on Monday
  

****
**** Christmas in Bethlehem is the biggest in years
****


Christmas eve celebrations at Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem on Monday (AFP)

It's Christmas in Bethlehem today (Tuesday). Bethlehem is unique in
that it celebrates Christmas three times each year:

• Catholics and Protestants celebrate Christmas on December
  25.
  
  
• Most Orthodox Churches, including the Greek Orthodox, Ethiopian,
  Russian Orthodox, Coptic and Syrian, celebrate Christmas on January 7,
  thanks to a switch to the Gregorian calendar in 1576.
  
  
• The Armenian Orthodox Church in Jerusalem celebrates Christmas on
  January 19, due to another calendar change.

About 50% of the Palestinian Arab Christian community across Israel
and the Palestinian territories belong to the Orthodox Church of
Jerusalem, and celebrate Christmas on January 7.

Pilgrims from around the world come to the West Bank city of Bethlemen
each year to celebrate Christmas at the Church of the Nativity,
venerated as the site of Jesus Christ's birth. In past years,
tourists have stayed away because of tensions and violence between
Israelis and Palestinians. Last year, tensions were high because of
repeated violence around the al-Aqsa Mosque / Temple Mount compound,
and then again when President Trump recognized Jerusalem as
the capital of Israel.

However, this has been a relatively quiet year in the West Bank, and
so this has been a record setting year in terms of tourism. Some
three million tourists have visited Bethlehem this year, and the
city's hotels hosted an "astounding" 10,000 tourist overnight on
Christmas eve. AFP and AP

Related Articles:

• Remembering the 1914 World War I Christmas Truce (25-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Greece calls its European lenders 'Ebenezer Scrooge' from A Christmas Carol (26-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Bethlehem celebrates the second of its three Christmases (07-Jan-2015)
  
  
• Christmas pageantry brings a little cheer to Bethlehem (25-Dec-2014)
  
  
• Orthodox priests in Bethlehem attack each other with brooms (29-Dec-2011)
  

****
**** DJIA falls 650 points on Monday
****

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 652.83 points on Monday,
and other Wall Street indexes fell proportionally. CNBC described the
market decline as "very orderly."

If the decline continues and becomes "disorderly," then that will be
an actual stock market panic. The S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio is
around 20, and has been above 20 for years. The historic average is
14, which means that the stock market is in a huge bubble, and
something will trigger a total panic and implosion. The P/E ratio
fell to the 5-6 range three times in the last century, the last time
in 1982, and when it does, the DJIA will fall to around 3000.

There's been a lot of nonsense on television about President Trump
blaming the Fed for a stock market crash. Blaming the Fed does no
harm, but it does no good either. It's irrelevant.

There was a similar stock market bubble in 1929. It's been 89 years
since the 1929 panic, and to this day nobody knows what triggered it,
and why it happened on August 28 rather than a few months earlier or
later. The same will be true when the new panic occurs this time. I
hope Trump understands that he who lives by the stock market dies by
the stock market. Market Watch and Bloomberg

Related Articles:

• DJIA plunges 800 points on Tuesday (06-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic (04-Mar-2017)
  
  
• 'The Big Short' - an infuriating movie about the financial crisis (26-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Reader comments on 'The Big Short' and the financial crisis (27-Dec-2015)
  
  
• The bubble that broke the world (09-Oct-2007)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Christmas, Bethlehem, West Bank,
Church of the Nativity, al-Aqsa Mosque, Temple Mount compound,
Jerusalem, Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Dec-18 World View -- Sudan police crack down violently against anti-government protesters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sudan police crack down violently against anti-government protesters
  
• Recent generational history of Sudan
  

****
**** Sudan police crack down violently against anti-government protesters
****


Anti-government protesters in Atbara, Sudan, on 20-Dec wave their hands at security forces (Sudan Tribune)

As of Monday, at least 37 people have been killed by Sudan's security
forces attempting to quash anti-government protests that began in the
suburbs on Wednesday of last week, and spread to the capital city
Khartoum. Security forces have been shooting live fire and teargas
into crowds of thousands of peaceful demonstrators.

On Tuesday, police fired into the air, used teargas and hit
demonstrators with batons to disperse them as they marched to the
presidential palace to demand that Omar al-Bashir, who has been
president of Sudan for 29 years, step down. Four members of the
Central Doctors Committee, including a doctor, surgeon and medical
student -- were shot by snipers Tuesday and were recovering in the
hospital.

The protests began last Wednesday, initially over rising prices and
shortages of food and fuel, but later escalated into calls for
al-Bashir to step down. As we've seen in one African country after
another, the leader who has been in power for decades refuses to step
down and uses the army and security forces to bash, arrest, torture
and kill anyone who opposes him. There's nothing new here.

Al-Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over
alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the
Darfur conflict in western Sudan.

Sudan's last generational crisis war was World War II, and so it's
deep into a generational Crisis era. The current widespread protests
could possible spiral into a full conflict.

Sudan is a country of more than 40 million people, and is a special
case in one sense. It depends on oil revenue, and when South Sudan
broke off and became independent in 2011, Sudan lost three-quarters of
its oil revenue. CNN and Amnesty International and AFP and Sudan Tribune and Still Sudan blog

****
**** Recent generational history of Sudan
****

Sudan's name in Arabic means "land of the blacks," which gives an
idea of the Arab view of the nature of Sudan.

For the purposes of Generational Dynamics, it's easiest to view Sudan
as three separate regions, on three separate generational timelines:

• Northern Sudan, containing Khartoum, is the élite "white Arab
  Muslim" region (although many residents are poor and black). This
  region's last generational crisis war was WW II, and it has largely
  escaped being drawn into recent crisis wars in the other two
  regions.
  
  
• Southern Sudan, which seceded in 2011 to become the independent
  country of South Sudan, is dominated by "black Africans" who are
  Christian or hold indigenous beliefs (animism). A civil war began in
  this region in 1983. It continued until a peace deal was signed in
  2005 between the two parties - the Sudan government and the rebel
  Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). The independence of South
  Sudan was supposed to resolve the North-South civil war, but it
  energized the tribal wars within South Sudan itself.
  
  
• Darfur (western Sudan) is dominated by "black Africans" who are
  mostly Muslim. Darfur means "land of the Fur," referring to the tribe
  of that name. However other tribes, including the Massaleet and
  Zagawa, also live in Darfur.

The Darfur conflict began in the 1970s as minor land disagreements
between farmers and camel herders. Droughts in the 1980s exacerbated
the tensions, causing low-level violence. In the 1990s, the Khartoum
government armed the Arab herders as the Janjaweed militias,
authorizing them to police the Darfur region.

In 2003, the Darfur conflict grew into a full-fledged generational
crisis war. In 2007, the United Nations Security Council authorized a
large international peacekeeping force in Darfur called UNAMID, but in
the last year has been reducing the size of UNAMID, even though
hostilities are still occurring in parts of Darfur. Sudan Tribune (12-Nov) and Mideast Forum (March 2001)

Related Articles:

• Latest South Sudan peace agreement appears close to collapse (09-Dec-2018)
  
  
• United Nations peacekeeping force in Darfur Sudan to be cut almost in half (16-Jun-2017)
  
  
• South Africa defies International Criminal Court, al-Bashir flies free (16-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Darfur genocide overshadows women's empowerment summit in South Africa (15-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Sudan's Darfur war expands as Khartoum comes under attack by rebels (14-May-2008)
  
  
• Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war (29-Apr-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sudan, Khartoum, Omar al-Bashir,
Darfur, Janjaweed Militias, South Sudan

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Dec-18 World View -- Socialist Venezuela's oil output plummets as refugee outflow surges

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Socialist Venezuela's oil output continues to crash -- except for China joint venture
  
• UN prepares Venezuelan refugee crisis, the largest in modern Latin American history
  

****
**** Socialist Venezuela's oil output continues to crash -- except for China joint venture
****


Venezuelan migrants travel aboard a truck in Tumbes, Peru, near the Ecuador border, on 1 November (AFP)

Venezuela's economy desperately needs to be able to sell oil in order
to survive. But Venezuela's Socialist presidents Hugo Chávez and
Nicolás Maduro have done what many might consider to be an almost
impossible feat -- turned the country with the largest oil reserves in
the world into a country that can't produce oil. When you see
something like this, it's almost impossible to believe it happened,
but this is always what happens with Socialism. Other "Socialist
paradise" countries, including China, Russia, East Germany, Cuba and
Sweden, have partially or completely turned to free markets as their
economies spiraled into disaster, but only two countries in the world
haven't -- Venezuela and North Korea. And both are economic disasters
as a result.

In Venezuela, Maduro has fulfilled his Socialist dreams by turning the
country's nationalized oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela
S.A. (PDVSA) over to army generals and other political cronies to run,
lest some dirty capitalist make a profit on Venezuela's oil. Well,
Maduro has made sure that nobody is making money on Venezuela's oil,
including Venezuela.

Oil accounts for about 98% of Venezuela's export revenue, and in
November 2017, Maduro put Major General Manuel Quevedo in charge of
PDVSA, in the hope of stopping its collapse.

Quevedo is a Maduro crony but knows nothing about the oil industry.
In July, Quevedo joined his wife, a Catholic priest and a gathering of
oil workers in prayer to ask God to boost oil output. Prayer is a
great management technique, but unfortunately, God wasn't listening
this time. The collapse has continued, and production has dropped 20%
since Quevedo took over, and is now at the lowest level in nearly 70
years.

And now there are reports that Maduro is thinking of firing Quevedo
and replacing him with another army general who has no oil industry
expertise. Ironically, Quevedo is scheduled in January to assume the
rotating presidency of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) for one year.

There is one subsidiary of PDVSA that that has increased oil
production this year. Sinovensa is jointly owned by PDVSA and China
National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and it accounts for about 10%
of Venezuela's oil output.

China has lent over $50 billion to Venezuela through oil-for-loan
agreements over the past decade. China has not been producing enough
oil to make the debt repayments, and so earlier this year China took
over additional control of Sinovensa, and now owns 49% of the joint
venture. The result is that oil production from Sinovensa increased
46% since April. Reuters and S&P Global and Hellenic Shipping and OilPrice.com

****
**** UN prepares Venezuelan refugee crisis, the largest in modern Latin American history
****

The problem of refugees fleeing from Venezuela into neighboring
countries has become so massive that the United Nations refugee agency
has created a Regional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan (RMRP)
involving 95 organizations in 16 countries to respond to the
humanitarian needs of the refugees and migrants from Venezuela.

Almost 3.3 million Venezuelans have fled into neighboring countries
and beyond. This exodus is already the largest in the modern history
of Latin America and the Caribbean and involves both refugees and
migrants from Venezuela. UNHCR expects that another two million
Venezuelans will flee in 2019, with the result that about 5.4 million
Venezuelans, or 17% of the country's total population, will be living
abroad by the end of 2019.

The RMRP organizations are also asking for $738 million in financing
in hopes of providing assistance to 2.2 million Venezuelans and
500,000 people in the host communities. The United States has
earmarked more than $95 million in aid to Colombia, Brazil and other
host nations to deal with the Venezuelan crisis since fiscal year
2017.

It's interesting to compare Venezuela and North Korea, the only two
major Socialist countries left in the world. Both have devastated
economies and enormous poverty. Both of them are supported by Russia
and China. Both are international pariahs. There are some
differences. Unlike North Korea, Venezuela doesn't have nuclear
weapons and ballistic missiles, and people are permitted to leave the
country without getting shot to death. Miami Herald and UNHCR and Refugee and Migrant Response Plan (RMRP, PDF)

Related articles:

• Socialist Venezuela oil production in 'free fall' as infrastructure collapses (25-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Venezuela's refugees crisis soars, as economic disaster reaches new levels (09-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near total collapse (21-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Russia considers taking on a huge financial burden - Venezuela (05-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro,
Manuel Quevedo, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., PDVSA,
Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, Russia, North Korea,
China, Sinovensa, China National Petroleum Corporation, CNPC,
UN High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR,
Regional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan, RMRP

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Dec-18 World View -- UAE reopens embassy in Syria to counter influence from Iran

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UAE reopens embassy in Syria to counter influence from Iran
  
• Arabs scramble to regain influence in Syria
  

****
**** UAE reopens embassy in Syria to counter influence from Iran
****


The UAE embassy in Damascus Syria on Thursday (AP)

In a dramatic turnaround, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced
that it is restoring diplomatic relations with Bashar al-Assad's
government in Syria, and reopening its embassy in Syria's capital city
Damascus. On Thursday afternoon, the UAE’s chargé d’affaires Abdul
Hakim Naimi visited the Damascus embassy and watched the flag being
raised again.

UAE's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the UAE hopes to
contribute to a political solution to the war:

<QUOTE>"[The reopening of the embassy] reaffirms the keenness
of the UAE to restore relations between the two friendly countries
to their normal course.

It will strengthen and activate the Arab role in supporting the
independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian
Arab Republic and to prevent the dangers of regional interference
in Syrian Arab affairs."<END QUOTE>

The "regional interference" being referenced is thought to be
interference from Turkey, Iran and Hezbollah.

It may already be too late to "prevent the dangers of regional
interference" from Iran and Hezbollah. In the past seven years,
Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, have brought
about then genocide and ethnic cleansing of vast portions of the
Syria's Sunni Arab population, and is repopulating the cleansed areas
with Shia Muslims families from Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah. ( "1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria"
)

Al-Assad's Shia/Alawite Syrian army has always fought the civil war
half-heartedly, with crippling defections and desertions. The army almost collapsed in 2015,
until
al-Assad begged for help and was saved by the massive intervention by
Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. That massive intervention continues until
the present time, in the form of the "regional interference" that
UAE's foreign ministry was referring to. So that's why preventing
"the dangers of regional interference" may no longer be possible.
The National (UAE) and Reuter and AP and
The National (UAE)

****
**** Arabs scramble to regain influence in Syria
****

Al-Assad's massive attacks on the Sunni Arabs had several major
consequences. One was that Syria was expelled from the Arab League,
something that may now be reversed, beginning with the restoration of
diplomatic relations by UAE.

Officials from some Arab countries are now expressing regret that
Syria was expelled from the Arab League, since it meant a complete
loss of influence by the other Arab League members. But these
crocodile tears ignore the reality of what was going on in 2011.

By August of 2011, it was becoming clear that al-Assad was conducting
genocidal and ethnic cleansing attacks on Sunni Arabs, and this was
shocking and repulsive to the other Arab states. Arab nations stayed
silent for several months, hoping that the carnage would end, but
finally they broke their silence in August, after the Syrian army
first attacked Homa and then began attacking the city of Deir Ezzor.
The technique being used in each of these cities is that tanks first
surround the city to prevent anyone from fleeing and then, once the
city is sealed, the tanks start flattening residential neighborhoods
and the snipers kill anyone on the street, even children. This is a
classic ethnic cleansing technique.

Al-Assad's actions were so shocking that finally the Arab League
Secretary-General issued a statement strongly condemning al-Assad,
and Saudi Arabia and the UAE recalled
their ambassadors to Syria.

Al-Assad's ethnic cleansing continued to worsen as he attacked the
El-Ramel Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia killing many women and
children and shocking the entire Sunni Muslim world. By mid-November,
the Arab League suspended Syria
--
the first such suspension since it expelled Egypt in 1979 for signing
a peace treaty with Israel. To claim today that Syria should never
have been expelled completely ignores the fury and chaos at the time.

The attack on the Latakia also led to the creation of ISIS.
Al-Assad's attacks drew tens of thousands of young Sunni jihadists
from over 80 countries to Syria to fight al-Assad, and by 2014 they
had formed the Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or ISIL),
and took control of a large region of eastern Syria, with the
headquarters of its Caliphate in the Syrian city of al-Raqqa, with a
population over 300,000. It took a joint operation by American forces
leading the Kurdish Syrian
Defense Forces (SDF) to recapture al-Raqqa.

With the recent announcement by President Trump that American troops
will be withdrawn from Syria, UAE's decision to restore relations with
Syria takes on a much greater significance and urgency than before.
The American withdrawal will create a vacuum in the huge eastern part
of Syria, and that region will might now be taken over by Iran and
Hezbollah.

It's also increasing calls across the Arab world to re-admit Syria
into the Arab League. With millions of Sunni Arabs slaughtered or
expelled from Syria, and their homes replaced by Shia Muslim families
from Iran, it now seems likely that Iran will have a great deal of
influence in Syria.

The war in Syria is far from over. With American troops withdrawing,
Turkey has promised to invade Syria and attack the Kurdish SDF, which
might bring Turkish troops into conflict with Syrian troops.

Even worse, Idlib province in northwest Syria is currently hosting
over three million Sunni Arabs. Al-Assad has vowed to regain control
of Idlib, which would amount to genocide and ethnic cleansing of the
three million Sunni Arabs currently living there. Idlib is a
"de-escalation zone," with Turkey responsible for maintaining the
ceasefire. An attack by al-Assad could lead to a full war between
Syria and Turkey. Also, it could create a new humanitarian disaster,
with millions of Sunni Arabs pouring across the border into Turkey,
and from there into Europe, bring back the days of 2015. The National (UAE) and Sky News and Press TV (Iran) and The National (UAE) and Al Jazeera


Related Articles:

• Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse (08-Apr-2015)
  
  
• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Mideast turmoil increases after Arab League suspends Syria (15-Nov-2011)
  
  
• Threats to Syria grow from all sides (08-Aug-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Hakim Naimi,
Arab League, Saudi Arabia, Egypt,
Russia, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah,
Homa, Deir Ezzor, Latakia, El-Ramel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syrian Defense Forces, SDF, Kurds, Idlib

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe