Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Apr-2019 World View: Philippines president Duterte threatens China with 'suicide mission'

The Philippines military is reporting that hundreds of Chinese
coastguard and fishing vessels, including some military warships, had
“swarmed” the Philippines island Pagasa (or Pag-asa or Thitu):

Quote:> "It has been observed that Chinese vessels have been
> present in large numbers and for sustained and recurring
> periods—what is commonly referred to as ‘swarming’ tactics—raising
> questions about their intent as well as concerns over their role
> in support of coercive objectives."

The Chinese flotilla began appearing around Thitu in December and
January, about the time the Philippines began its own construction on
one of its islands.

In a speech last week, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said:

Quote:> "Let us be friends, but do not touch Pagasa Island and
> the rest. If you make moves there, that's a different story. I
> will tell my soldiers, 'Prepare for suicide
> mission'."

Duterte's first acts when he took office in 2016 were to cut off
relations with the United States, and to take a trip to Beijing, where
he was given the red carpet treatment by China's president Xi Jinping.
Duterte indicated that he would not enforce the earlier ruling by the
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. By
refusing to enforce the ruling, Duterte appeared to be giving
Scarborough Shoal away to the Chinese.

In May of last year, Duterte explained his decision to not enforce the
Tribunal ruling by recounting a conversation he had with Xi Jinping in
2016, in which Xi threatened war:

Quote:> "Duterte: Mr. Xi Jinping, I will insist that it is
> ours and we will drill oil. [T]hat is ours and we intend to drill
> oil there. My view is I can drill the oil.

> Xi: Well we are friends. We don’t want to quarrel with you. We
> want to maintain warm relationship, but if you force the issue we
> will go to war.

> Duterte: I’ll drill the oil.

> Xi: Please do not do that because that is ours.

> Duterte: That is according to you. But I have the arbitral
> [referring to the Hague tribunal ruling].

> Xi: Yes, but ours is historical and yours is legal of recent
> memory.

> Duterte: But that’s too far away. It’s almost alien to us to hear
> those words because we were never under Chinese jurisdiction.

> Xi: Well, if you force the issue, we’ll be forced to tell you the
> truth.

> Duterte: So what is the truth?

> Xi: We will go to war. We will fight you."

Note that Xi's claims of historical claims to the South China Sea are
total bullshit, as I've described in detail in my forthcoming book,
"War Between China and Japan."

After recounting the conversation, Duterte added:

Quote:> "Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
> willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result
> in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."

So Duterte decided that he had to accede to China's threats.

Last week's threat of a "suicide mission" seems to be a logical
consequence of Duterte's statements in the past. He says that the
Philippines military is willing to fight, even though it would lose a
war to China and "destroy everything," and now he reaffirms that
statement by threatening a suicide mission.

In the last few years, China has become increasingly nationalistic,
xenophobic, hostile and belligerent, so it seems unlikely that
China's military will back down.

So Duterte has committed to launch is "suicide mission." It remains
to be seen whether he'll follow through.


---- Sources:


-- Duterte’s suicide mission to Pag-asa Island
https://opinion.inquirer.net/120636/dute...asa-island
(Inquirer, Manila)

-- Philippines / Duterte just threatened to go on a "suicide mission"
against China
https://www.vice.com/en_in/article/mbz8d...inst-china
(Vice)

-- Philippines Slams China's South China Sea Flotilla
https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/philippi...-flotilla/
(Diplomat)

---- Related:

** 21-Nov-18 World View -- Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181121


** 11-Sep-18 World View -- Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180911


** 30-May-18 World View -- Philippine President Duterte reverses position, says he would go to war with China over South China Sea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180530

[John J. Xenakis]

** 09-Apr-2019 World View: Tensions growing rapidly in the South China Sea

During the last few weeks, tensions have been growing rapidly
in the South China Sea:

• There's Duterte's threat of a "suicide mission," described
  in the previous article.
  
  
  
• A fleet of warships from Russia docked in the port of Manila, the
  Philippines, early on Monday. There were two destroyers Admiral
  Tributs and Vinogradov, classified as "large, anti-submarine ships,"
  and the Admiral Irkut, described as a "large sea tanker.
  
  This is the second such visit this year, the last one in January. In
  July, the two countries are due to sign a naval cooperation agreement.
  
  There's a certain irony to this, since both Russia and the Philippines
  are historical enemies of China, but in both cases the country
  has been in a "marriage of convenience" with China in recent years.
  However, both countries are expected to be allies of the US and
  the West in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.
  
  
  
• Vietnam has complained about incidents involving China’s repeated
  harassment of Vietnam’s oil and gas operations in its exclusive
  economic zone (EEZ), and China’s various violent attacks against
  Vietnamese fishermen, especially in the waters around the disputed
  Paracels. China's navy has attacked and sank Vietnamese ships.
  
  
  
• Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA (China's military) to be ready to
  invade Taiwan by 2020. Taking exclusive control of the South China
  Sea would be additional preparation for the attack by the Chinese
  invasion force.
  
  
  
• There are reports that the USS Wasp amphibious assault ship has
  been sailing near Scarborough Shoal, which is being illegally claimed
  by China. The reports said that warplanes have been seen landing and
  taking off from the ship.
  
  China seized Scarborough Shoal in 2012 after an extended standoff with
  the Philippines. China later effectively blockaded the lagoon, which
  is rich in fish stocks, and routinely dispatches scores of fishing
  vessels and government-backed “maritime militia” ships to the area to
  continue its de facto blockade.
  
  The Wasp was taking part in the annual Balikatan U.S.-Philippine
  military training exercise “that focuses on maritime security and
  amphibious capabilities, as well as multinational interoperability
  through military exchanges," according to the US Marine Corps. The
  Wasp has been paired with the U.S. Marines Corps’ cutting-edge F-35B
  Lightning II stealth aircraft. The F-35B is the short takeoff and
  vertical landing variant of the aircraft.

This comes as China has been increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic
and militarily hostile and threatening in the South China Sea in the
last few years, especially after it was humiliated by a tribunal at
the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in
2016. The ruling said that all of China's activities in the
South China Sea were illegal. This ruling was apparently a
turning point for China, as China's policies became more openly
militarily hostile and belligerent.

On September 25, 2015, blatantly lied to the face of Barack Obama
during a joint press conference on the White House lawn about China's
intentions, saying that the South China Sea would never be
militarized. After the Tribunal ruling, China became much more
blatantly open about its criminal acritivies in the South China Sea.

On September 30, 2018, the USS Decatur was conducting a "freedom
of navigation operation" (FONOP) in the South China Sea.
A Chinese navy destroyer Lanzhou drove within
forty-five yards of the USS Decatur as it crossed the bow of the
American warship near Gaven Reef. The Decatur’s commander
averted collision only by deftly swerving to escape the Lanzhou’s
aggressive maneuverings.

Reports in Chinese media indicate that officers in China's military
are calling for military action in the South China Sea in 2019.

At a conference on December 8, 2018, Chinese Air Force Colonel
Commandant Dai Xu referred to the US FONOPs:

Quote: "If the U.S. warships break into Chinese waters again,
I suggest that two warships should be sent: one to stop it, and
another one to ram it. ... In our territorial waters, we won't
allow U.S. warships to create disturbance. ...

It would boost the speed of our unification of Taiwan… Let's just
be prepared and wait. Once a strategic opportunity emerges, we
should be ready to take over Taiwan."

Once again, it's worth pointing out that Dai Wu is completely
full of crap claiming them as China's territorial waters.

In a speech on December 20, 2018, Rear Admiral Luo Yuan, the deputy
head of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences said called for the
sinking of two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers to “frighten” the U.S. away
from the SC He said that the key for Chinese domination of the SCS
lies in using ballistic missiles to sink the two carriers, killing as
many American sailors as possible. He said the loss of one super
carrier would cost the US the lives of 5000 service men and
women. Sinking two would double that toll.

Quote: "What the United States fears the most is taking
casualties. ... We’ll see how frightened America is."

I'm seen other remarks from Chinese officials intimating that America
would be too frightened to fight China, or would be so afraid of
casualties that it would refuse to fight.

This is so completely delusional that it's almost impossible
to believe. And yet I know from history that this kind
of delusional, nationalistic, xenophobic attitude is common
just before a generational crisis war.

World War I began when a high school student decided to assassinate an
Archduke. World War II began with the Marco Polo Bridge incident,
when a Japanese soldier had to pee, and his absence led to a military
confrontation between the Japanese and Chinese. In these and other
cases, a "small incident" leads to a small military confrontation,
which leads to a larger military confrontation, which leads to
full-scale war within 2-3 months.

This is the difference between the 1990s and today. In the 1990s, the
world was being run by World War II survivors, and they knew how to
compromise and make peace. Today, the world is being run by Gen-Xers,
who have no idea how to compromise, have no desire to make peace, and
believe that the other side will easily be scared off.

China is "swarming" the South China Sea with hundreds, perhaps
thousands, of fishing vessels and warships. Chinese military
officials are encouraging China's navy to confront US FONOPs ships,
with everything from ramming to missiles.

This makes plenty of room for a "small incident" which, in
today's nationalistic, xenophobic world, could easily lead
to full scale war within a few weeks.

--- Sources:


-- Russian warships arrive in the Philippines amid rising South China
Sea tensions
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/08/asia/russ...index.html
(CNN)

-- Vietnam wants a South China Sea dispute resolution pact with teeth,
not more politics
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/a...-teeth-not
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong)

-- U.S. sails massive, F-35-laden warship in disputed South China Sea
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/0...KyYVaQpB_A
(Japan Times)

-- China vs. America: How a War in the South China Sea Could Start
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/c...tart-51387
(National interest)



-- Senior Chinese military official urges PLAN to attack US naval
vessels in S. China Sea
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3592985
(Taiwan News, 9-Dec-2018)

-- Dai Xu / Chinese senior military official calls for attacks on US
ships in South China Sea
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/12...china-sea/
(AmericanMilitaryTimes, 11-Dec-2018)


-- Dai Xu / Chinese military official: ‘We should be ready to take
over Taiwan’
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innov...1edbce63ee
(News.com, Australia, 11-Dec-2018)

-- China-US relations heading toward uncharted waters dominate Global
Times annual conference
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1131036.shtml
(GlobalTimes, 9-Dec-2018)

-- ‘Sink two aircraft carriers’: Chinese Admiral’s chilling recipe to
dominate the South China Sea
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innov...791aa26e0f
(News.com, Australia, 9-Jan-2019)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Apr-2019 World View: War by China against Japan and Taiwan

I've rewritten sections of my book's introductory section to
make it much more explicity clear that China is planning war
with both Japan and Taiwan.

The following text is from my book:

The 20th century was not unique. In every century for millennia,
there have been massive wars on every continent in every region, such
as China's Taiping rebellion, Africa's Mfecane, India's sepoy
rebellion, the 30 years war, the 100 years war, the Punic wars in
ancient Rome, and so forth.

It's 100% certain that there will be massive wars, including one or
two world wars in this century. So the world war with China that this
book is about is actually quite likely. The only thing that can't be
predicted is the exact timing or the precise scenario. But there
will be a world war pitting America and China against each other.

However, my research also reveals that the Chinese have no desire for
war against America. For the most part, the Chinese actually like
Americans -- as well they should -- and have no desire for war.

But my research has also revealed that the Chinese have a vitriolic
hatred for the Japanese, and are thirsting for a war in revenge for
the atrocities committed by the Japanese during World War II.

The Chinese government -- though not the Chinese people as far as I
can tell -- is also thirsting for a war to invade Taiwan and annex it
by force to China.

And China's government are well aware that a war with Japan and Taiwan
will mean war with America, since America will defend Japan and
Taiwan. That's where the world is headed.

It's a cruel irony of the current situation that American and Chinese
people greatly like other, but are going to war anyway because China's
incompetent government is determined to go to war with Japan and
Taiwan.

[pbrower2a]

A very bad leader, Omar al-Bashar of Sudan, is overthrown:

On the evening of 10 April 2019, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was removed from power by the Sudanese Armed Forces amidst the 2018–19 Sudanese protests.[1] The Sudanese military dissolved the cabinet and the National Legislature, and announced a 3-month state of emergency, to be followed by a 2-year transition period.[2] Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf, who was both Sudan's defense minister and vice-president declared himself the de facto Head of State, announced the suspension of the country's constitution, and imposed a curfew from 10 pm to 4 am, effectively ordering the dissolution of the ongoing protests. State media reported that all political prisoners, including anti-Bashir protest leaders, were being released from jail.[3] al-Bashir's National Congress party responded by announcing that they would hold a rally supporting the ousted president.[4] Soldiers also raided the offices of the Islamic Movement, the main ideological wing of the National Congress, in Khartoum.[5]

Several officials have been reportedly detained: Prime Minister Mohamed Taher Ayala, Ahmed Haroun (the head of the ruling National Congress Party), member of the National Congress Awad Al-Jaz, former defense minister Abdel Rahim Mohammed Hussein, and former vice presidents Bakri Hassan Saleh and Ali Othman Taha.[6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Sudan...7%C3%A9tat

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Apr-2019 India and Britain commemorate 1919 Amritsar massacre


On April 13, 1919, the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar Massacre)
occurred, when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a
protest meeting, killing hundreds. Both India and Britain
commemorated the 100th anniversary of that event on Saturday.

The Amritsar Massacre was an Awakening climax. The previous
generational crisis war was the 1857 India anti-British rebellion,
also called India's First War of Independence from the British
colonial power. What started out in 1857 as protests related to the
Hindu veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody generational
crisis war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000 Indian civilians.

India remained a British colony, and there was little or no violence
for decades, as often happens after a generational crisis war, since
the traumatized survivors do not wish anything so horrible to happen
again. However, as younger generations with no personal memory of the
war rise to power, conflicts begin again.

In the 1910s, Mahatma Gandhi, the Indian peace activist, launched a
"non-cooperation movement" against the British, involving civil
disobedience. The generational Awakening era climax occurred with the
Amritsar Massacre, which is considered by some to be the worst British
atrocity of the century.

That event convinced both the British and the Indians that Britain
should completely give up colonial control of India. It led to the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 into two new nations,
India and Pakistan, and that led immediately into the Partition war,
one of the bloodiest battles of the 20th century.

The people killed in the Amritsar Massacre were Sikhs in the
"Khalistan" separatist movement, demanding that Punjab become an
independent Sikh state.

Sixty-four years after the Amritsar Massacre of 1919, in 1983, some
Sikh activists took refuge in the Golden Temple Complex at Amritsar,
the most revered place in the Sikh world. In June 1984 Indian troops
launched 'Operation Blue Star'. They attacked the Golden Temple
Complex, killing many of those inside, and seriously damaging the
buildings.

This infuriated the Sikhs, who revived the Khalistan separatist
movement. In October 1984, the world was shocked when India's prime
minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by two of her Sikh bodyguards,
who were getting revenge. Four days of anti-Sikh rioting followed in
India. The government said that more than 2,700 people, mostly Sikhs,
were killed, while newspapers and human rights groups put the death
toll between 10,000 and 17,000.

There's no known connection between the two, so it may simply be a
coincidence that a similar massacre occurred in Tiananmen Square in
Beijing on May 4, 1919, just three weeks after the Amritsar Massacre.
Word of the Amritsar massacre would surely have reached Beijing, and
might well have inspired the protests. This was the famous "May
Fourth movement," protesting the "Versailles betrayal" of China by the
Versailles peace conference that ended World War I.

When an Awakening climax is a massacre, it can change the direction of
a society. The Amritsar massacre convinced everyone that India should
no longer be a British colony. The 1919 Tiananmen Square massacre
convinced the Chinese to turn against "Western imperialism," which led
to the relationship with Soviet Russia and the adoption of Communism.

--- Sources:

-- Amritsar massacre / After the Jallianwala Bagh massacre, came the
torture, crawling, floggings
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi...773961.cms
(TimesOfIndia)

--- Related:

** 30-Nov-18 World View -- Kartarpur Corridor raises concerns about activating the Sikh separatist Khalistan movement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181130


** 2-Apr-18 World View -- Massive new anti-India violence in Kashmir leads to 20 deaths
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180402

[John J. Xenakis]

** 14-Apr-2019 Omar al-Bashir ousted in Sudan

(04-12-2019, 06:01 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > A very bad leader, Omar al-Bashar of Sudan, is overthrown:

> On the evening of 10 April 2019, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was removed from power by the Sudanese Armed Forces amidst the 2018–19 Sudanese protests.[1] The Sudanese military dissolved the cabinet and the National Legislature, and announced a 3-month state of emergency, to be followed by a 2-year transition period.[2] Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf, who was both Sudan's defense minister and vice-president declared himself the de facto Head of State, announced the suspension of the country's constitution, and imposed a curfew from 10 pm to 4 am, effectively ordering the dissolution of the ongoing protests. State media reported that all political prisoners, including anti-Bashir protest leaders, were being released from jail.[3] al-Bashir's National Congress party responded by announcing that they would hold a rally supporting the ousted president.[4] Soldiers also raided the offices of the Islamic Movement, the main ideological wing of the National Congress, in Khartoum.[5]

> Several officials have been reportedly detained: Prime Minister Mohamed Taher Ayala, Ahmed Haroun (the head of the ruling National Congress Party), member of the National Congress Awad Al-Jaz, former defense minister Abdel Rahim Mohammed Hussein, and former vice presidents Bakri Hassan Saleh and Ali Othman Taha.[6]

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Sudan...7%C3%A9tat

Omar al-Bashir was ousted by the military after months of massive
anti-government protests across the nation. This was a "velvet coup"
or "bloodless coup" occurring during a generational Awakening era.

The military says that it will stay in charge until new "free and
fair" elections are held in three months. Also, the military promises
"reforms." Anti-government activists are saying that nothing has
changed, with an army general now in charge. They also say that, with
the military overseeing the election, the military will guarantee that
they're man will become the leader, so nothing will change after the
elections.

Societies all follow the same pattern in the decades following a
generational crisis civil war. The military will not give up power
under any circumstances, and after a while they'll no longer tolerate
the civilian protests, and start dispersing them with arrests,
beatings, jailings, rapes and torture.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 15-Apr-2019 World View: A New Arc of Instability in Northern Africa

A New Arc of Instability in Northern Africa

A wave of disorder and conflict is threatening states across northern
Africa, setting conditions for massive instability and the expansion
of the al Qaeda and Islamic State threat. Protests are challenging
repressive regimes in Algeria and Sudan, which share borders with a
Libya in the throes of its latest bout of civil war. These events are
part of a larger trend of potential state collapse that is spreading
from weak states with small populations—Libya, Mali, Somalia—to larger
states whose regimes have been perceived as secure—Algeria,
Sudan. This trend places states with very large populations—Ethiopia,
Nigeria, Egypt—increasingly under pressure. The Salafi-jihadi
movement, which includes al Qaeda and the Islamic State, is best
positioned to benefit from widespread instability.

- American Enterprise Institute

[John J. Xenakis]

** 15-Apr-2019 Notre Dame Cathedral is burning down

Notre Dame Cathedral is burning down. It's apparently a total
disaster. The entire structure is collapsing.


https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/notr...index.html

[David Horn]

(04-15-2019, 01:06 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 15-Apr-2019 Notre Dame Cathedral is burning down

Notre Dame Cathedral is burning down.  It's apparently a total disaster.  The entire structure is collapsing.

Gothic cathedrals have stone as the basic building block, with gravity as the bonding element.  Notre Dame will burn, but should be able to rise from its ashes, given time and resources.  Of course, it won't be the same -- more of a facsimile than an original -- but that's better than having the cathedral erased entirely.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Apr-2019 World View: North Korea claims new 'tactical weapon' test

On Thursday morning, North Korea's KCNA (Korean Central News
Agency) reports that the child dictator Kim Jong-un had
overseen the testing of a new "tactical weapon."

The KCNA description is vague, but according to one analyst:

Quote:> "It’s highly likely that it’s a short-range cruise
> missile that can be transformed into a surface, an air-to-surface,
> an air-to-ship, a ship-to-ship, as well as a surface-to-surface
> cruise missile."

Here's the full KCNA announcement:

Quote:> "Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Guides Test-Fire of
> New-Type Tactical Guided Weapon

> Pyongyang, April 18 (KCNA) -- Kim Jong Un, chairman of the
> Workers' Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission
> of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and supreme commander
> of the Armed Forces of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea,
> supervised and guided a test-fire of a new-type tactical guided
> weapon conducted by the Academy of Defence Science on Wednesday.

> Looking round the new-type tactical guided weapon, Kim Jong Un was
> told by officials concerned of the Academy of Defence Science
> about the formation of the weapon system and its operation mode.

> Saying that the completion of the development of the weapon system
> serves as an event of very weighty significance in increasing the
> combat power of the People's Army, he noted that it is a very good
> thing that the field of national defence science has waged a
> dynamic struggle for attaining core research goals set forth by
> the Party at the 8th Conference of Munitions Industry and thus
> conducted brisk activities for developing our own style weapon
> system which embodies four elements.

> He mounted an observation post to learn about a plan of the
> test-fire of the new-type tactical guided weapon and guided the
> test-fire.

> The design indexes of the tactical guided weapon whose advantages
> are appreciated for the peculiar mode of guiding flight and the
> load of a powerful warhead were perfectly verified at the
> test-fire conducted in various modes of firing at different
> targets.

> After watching the power of the new-type tactical guided weapon,
> he pointed out that our national defence scientists and workers in
> the field of the munitions industry performed another great work
> in increasing the country's defence capabilities, saying with
> pride that he had always been struck with admiration at them in
> the period of developing strategic weapon and our scientists,
> technicians and workers are, indeed, great and there is no weapon
> impossible to make when they are determined to do.

> He set the phased and strategic goals for keeping munitions
> production going on and putting national defence science and
> technology on cutting edge level and indicated detailed tasks and
> ways to attain them.

> He was accompanied by Kim Phyong Hae, O Su Yong, Jo Yong Won, Ri
> Pyong Chol, Kim Jong Sik and other senior officials of the Party
> Central Committee and commanding officers of the Korean People's
> Army including Kim Su Gil, Ri Yong Gil, No Kwang Chol, Pak Jong
> Chon and Pak Kwang Ju. -0-

> (2019.04.18)"

North Korea appears to be struggling to decide what diplomatic steps
to take next. All signs indicate that both the North Korean
denuclearization negotiators and the Chinese trade negotiators were
completely shocked when Donald Trump walked out of the summit meeting
with Kim Jong-un in Hanoi on February 28. Kim had taken a long
three-day railroad train trip from Pyongyang, through China, to Hanoi
for the meeting, apparently expecting to reap the benefits of his
year-long 2018 charm offensive by getting Trump to agree to reduce the
sanctions in return for phony denuclearization steps. Instead, Trump
presented Kim with a list of real denuclearization steps, including
the simplest step of all -- just providing a piece of paper listing
all of North Korea's nuclear and missile development sites. Kim
refused and Trump left, leaving Kim to take a three-day train trip
back to Pyongyang in humiliation.

On the other hand, North Korea has continued developing nuclear
weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, but hasn't been able
to test them during the year-long charm offensive. They could
now restart nuclear weapons and missile testing, but they
don't know what kind of response that would bring from the Trump
administration. Trump has not taken a military response off
the table.

So Thursday's announcement of a "tacticle weapon test" seems to
be just enough to annoy the Trump administration, without drawing
a major response.

Kim Jong-un is also expected to hold a summit meeting with Russia's
president Vladimir Putin next week, on April 24. The meeting is the
response to a formal invitation that the Russian government sent on
April 3. The meeting will take place in Russia's Far East, near the
North Korean border.

--- Sources:


-- Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Guides Test-Fire of New-Type Tactical
Guided Weapon
http://www.kcna.kp/
(KCNA)

-- State media says new tactical weapons test overseen by North Korean
leader
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-north...SKCN1RT2KY
(Reuters, 17-Apr-2019)

-- North Korean, Russian leaders may hold summit next week
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190415000760
(Korea Herald, 15-Apr-2019)

[pbrower2a]

Anyone who trusts North Korean leadership on anything is a fool.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-18-2019, 09:24 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Anyone who trusts North Korean leadership on anything is a fool.

Or China. Or Russia.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 18-Apr-2019 World View: France blamed for supporting Hafter as Libya war worsens

As I reported in the past, Khalifa Haftar (Hiftar), head of the
government in eastern Libya, has led his Libyan National Army (LNA)
west to attack Libya's other government, the UN-recognised Government
of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Fayez
al-Serraj.

The attack was launched on April 4, and at this point, hundreds of
people have been killed, and tens of thousands have been displaced
from their homes, and the numbers are increasing rapidly.

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been
accused of supplying weapons to Haftar. Turkey and Qatar have been
accused of supplying weapons to Tripoli government.

France is also being accused of switching sides and supplying weapons
to Haftar. According to some reports, France's government has decided
that a successful coup by Haftar, making him a dictator like Muammar
Gaddafi, would be the best way to restore stability to Libya. This
is a view also held by the governments of Egypt and UAE.

A spokesman for France's government denies the allegation:

Quote: "As we have already stated on several occasions:
France supports the legitimate government of Prime Minister (Fayez
al-)Sarraj and the mediation of the UN for an inclusive political
solution in Libya.

Furthermore, the president's legitimate interlocutor is Prime
Minister Sarraj, with whom the president spoke on Monday to
reaffirm this support."

Nonetheless, Libya's Interior Ministry on Thursday accused France of
supporting Haftar and said it would halt cooperation with France
in any bilaterial security agreements.

Besides the fact that this might spiral into a much larger war (though
that seems less likely now than in the past), there are some
other major issues:

• There are some 700,000 migrants from Syria, Somalia, Ethiopia,
  Eritrea, and other African countries, who have made their way to
  northern Libya in the hope of crossing the Mediterranean to reach
  Europe. Thousands of them are in detention centers in Tripoli, thanks
  to an agreement made between Italy and Libyan warlords. The United
  Nations has already moved 150 refugees from a detention center to
  another camp to escape the war. If the chaos in northern Libya
  worsens, then those migrants will once again try to flood across the
  Mediterranean.
  
  
  
• Since Haftar has moved his army from the east, west
  toward Tripoli, ISIS has been filling the vacuum in eastern
  Libya, killing and displacing civilians in Benghazi and Sirte.
  ISIS was defeated in 2016, but since has been rebuilding itself,
  and is now poised to take advantage of the war in the west
  to regain territory in the east.

--- Sources:


-- Western allies add fuel to Libya's fire with alleged military
shipments to warlord
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world...72606.html
(Independent, London)


-- Libya death toll rises to 205 as Tripoli fighting continues: WHO
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/l...12223.html
(Al-Jazeera)

-- Libya’s UN-backed govt accuses France of supporting Haftar, ends
cooperation
https://www.france24.com/en/20190418-lib...ar-warrant
(France 24)

-- France wants Haftar to rule Libya
https://www.libyaobserver.ly/inbrief/fra...rule-libya
(Libya Obsrver, 14-Apr-2019)

-- Armed group attacks air base in southern Libya held by Haftar
-officials
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/201904...officials/
(Middle East Monitor)

-- Libya / Haftar has clearly been given the green light to conquer
Tripoli
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/201904...r-tripoli/
(Middle East Monitor)

-- Libya / Algeria / Sudan / Tunisia / Arab Spring 2.0
https://www.dailysabah.com/columns/hilal...-spring-20
(Daily Sabah, Turkey)

-- African, Syrian migrants in crosshairs of Libya war
https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditi...FL8N21R47N
(Reuters, 11-Apr-2019)

-- Violence in Libya Could Give IS Renewed Opportunities
https://www.voanews.com/a/violence-in-li...71069.html
(VOA, 10-Apr-2019)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Apr-2019 World View: Trump appears to endorse Haftar's attack in Libya

A symbolic but possibly significant event occurred when the White
House announced on Friday that President Trump contacted Libya's rogue
general Khalifa Haftar on Monday.


As I reported in the past, Khalifa Haftar (Hiftar), head of the
government in eastern Libya, has led his Libyan National Army (LNA)
west to attack Libya's other government, the UN-recognised Government
of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Fayez
al-Serraj.

According to the White House statement:

Quote: "[Trump and Haftar discussed] ongoing counterterrorism
efforts and the need to achieve peace and stability in Libya.

The President recognized Field Marshal Haftar’s significant role
in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources, and the
two discussed a shared vision for Libya’s transition to a stable,
democratic political system."

Trump praised Haftar in the statement, but it's unclear whether
Trump wants Haftar to continue the assault on Tripoli. At the very
least, the phone call implies continued support for actions
by Haftar.

Haftar's actions have split the international community. If we
now put the United States on the side of Haftar, then
the scorecard is as follows:

• Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj supporters: Turkey, Qatar, Italy,
  Britain, United Nations
  
  
  
• Khalifa Haftar supporters: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab
  Emirates (UAE), Russia, United States

Tsk, tsk. Apparently Trump is colluding with Russia again.

--- Sources:


-- White House says Trump spoke to Libyan commander Haftar on Monday
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya...SKCN1RV0WW
(Reuters)

-- Trump's call to Haftar shows U.S. believes in Libyan army role in
war on terrorism: spokesman
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya...SKCN1RV17Z
(Reuters)

-- Trump Spoke to Libyan Strongman Threatening Tripoli
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ftar-libya
(Bloomberg)

-- International rivalries driving Libya towards war, UN warns
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/af...-1.3866057
(Irish Times)

-- Trump praises Libyan general as his troops march on US backed
government in Tripoli
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/19/politics/...index.html
(CNN)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Apr-2019 World View: China-Japan Book

I've made what I hope are the final rewrites to my China-Japan book.
The major changes were to "Part VII East Asian history since the end
of World War II," in order to strengthen as much as possible the case
the China is planning for launch a war against Japan. I also added an
interesting chapter on Cognitive Dissonance at the end of the book,
and how it relates to generational theory.

It's now 304 pages, 115K words.

I'm going to proofread it a few more times, then push the "publish"
button next week.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 21-Apr-2019 Bombings target churches and hotels in Sri Lanka


Eight bomb blasts on Sunday targeted churches and five-star hotels in
Colombo, the capital city of Sri Lanka. The church explosions took
place in the midst of Easter Sunday services to produce maximum
carnage.

Over 215 people were killed, including dozens of foreigners, 450
injured.

No one has claimed credit for attacks, and Sri Lankan officials are
telling the media not to speculate. So I won't speculate, but I will
list the possibilities:

• Tamil separatists. The extremely bloody Sri Lanka civil war ended
  in May 2009. It was fought between the Buddhist Sinhalese ruling
  majority versus the Hindu Tamil separatists.
  
  
  
• Muslim jihadists. They mostly sat out the civil war between the
  Buddhists and Hindus, and actually benefited from it economically,
  since they just did their jobs and weren't trying to kill anyone.
  
  
  
• Buddhist nationalists. The Bodu Bala Sena (BBS - Forces of
  Buddhist Power) terror group, led by Buddhist monk Galagoda Aththe
  Gnanasara, was formed in 2012 to purify Sri Lanka for the Buddhists by
  exterminating the Christians, Hindus and Muslims. Gnanasara was
  jailed last year for terrorist acts.

The police have arrested 13 suspects, and officials say that they'll
be able to announce the perpetrators on Monday.

---- Sources:


-- LIVE: Death toll in explosions reaches 215 – Curfew declared
https://www.newsfirst.lk/2019/04/21/expl...kochikade/
(NewsFirst, Sri Lanka)


-- Multiple Blasts In Sri Lanka Kill 207, 13 Arrested Says Defence
Minister: Updates
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/multiple...es-2026245
(New Delhi TV)


---- Related

** 12-Jun-17 World View -- Sri Lanka targets radical nationalist Buddhists in Bodu Bala Sena (BBS)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e170612

[John J. Xenakis]

** 21-Apr-2019 Seasteading -- Hiding out from World War III

Several people have asked where they could hide out from WW III, and I
completely forgot about this one, from 2016:

John Wrote:> By the way, you haven't said in a long time. Are you still making
> plans to survive at sea with your family in a specially designed
> floating home? That would be really amazing.

vincecate Wrote:> Still working on it. Got some aluminum and a welder and making a
> boat big enough to ride on this summer. Also getting into 3D
> printing to test out ideas. With either several models like 5
> foot each or several of the ride on size I will test out software
> for a train of boats sometime in the next year. I have a real
> naval architect that will design something we could live on in the
> next year or so. So coming along. My goal is to do it before my
> kids are leaving the nest, which gives me 4 or 5 years still
> probably.

> Stuff should be coming on http://www.islandboys.ai/ this summer.

> Real goal is to make something I can sell, not just for my family.

> -- Vince

Vince lives in Anguilla and claims that he and his family will ride
out the war in the middle of the ocean a specially designed
solar-powered vessel with room for his family, where he can grow food,
and so forth.

If you're interested in pursuing this, just do a search
on the word "seasteading." There are lots of links.

I was reminded of this when I saw a news report last week about a
couple who built a seastead home in Thailand's exclusive economic zone
(EEZ), though not in its territorial waters. According to the story,
Thailand may even threaten them with the death penalty because the
seastead home challenges their sovereignty. However, the couple fled
before the Thai police came to arrest them.

However, the seastead the Vince Cate was talking about would not sit
in one place but would float and move around. If you're trying to
escape WW III in a seastead, I'd suggest some place far away from
land.

---- Source:

-- Seasteading / The “freest person in the world” faces a possible
death penalty in Thailand
https://qz.com/1600609/seasteading-cabin...h-penalty/
(Quartz)

[Marypoza]

(04-21-2019, 05:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 21-Apr-2019 Seasteading -- Hiding out from World War III

Several people have asked where they could hide out from WW III, and I
completely forgot about this one, from 2016:

John Wrote:>   By the way, you haven't said in a long time.  Are you still making
>   plans to survive at sea with your family in a specially designed
>   floating home?  That would be really amazing.

vincecate Wrote:>   Still working on it.  Got some aluminum and a welder and making a
>   boat big enough to ride on this summer.  Also getting into 3D
>   printing to test out ideas.  With either several models like 5
>   foot each or several of the ride on size I will test out software
>   for a train of boats sometime in the next year.  I have a real
>   naval architect that will design something we could live on in the
>   next year or so.  So coming along.  My goal is to do it before my
>   kids are leaving the nest, which gives me 4 or 5 years still
>   probably.

>   Stuff should be coming on http://www.islandboys.ai/ this summer.

>   Real goal is to make something I can sell, not just for my family.

>   -- Vince

Vince lives in Anguilla and claims that he and his family will ride
out the war in the middle of the ocean a specially designed
solar-powered vessel with room for his family, where he can grow food,
and so forth.

If you're interested in pursuing this, just do a search
on the word "seasteading."  There are lots of links.

I was reminded of this when I saw a news report last week about a
couple who built a seastead home in Thailand's exclusive economic zone
(EEZ), though not in its territorial waters.  According to the story,
Thailand may even threaten them with the death penalty because the
seastead home challenges their sovereignty.  However, the couple fled
before the Thai police came to arrest them.

However, the seastead the Vince Cate was talking about would not sit
in one place but would float and move around.  If you're trying to
escape WW III in a seastead, I'd suggest some place far away from
land.

---- Source:

-- Seasteading / The “freest person in the world” faces a possible
  death penalty in Thailand
https://qz.com/1600609/seasteading-cabin...h-penalty/
(Quartz)

-- do you think that can actually work? What about the naval frigates also floating around on the seas? Or aircraft carriers? Or subs with nukes?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Apr-2019 ISIS takes credit for Sri Lanka bombing

CH86 Wrote:> More blatant globalist propaganda, events have refuted the
> speculation advanced in these paragraphs. Meanwhile in the real
> world Buddhist nationalists are NOT chomping at the bit to murder
> westerners. That cannot be said for the Muslims, its has been
> proven over the last couple days that the perpetrators were
> islamicists. John's ingrained bias in favor globalist "controlled"
> politics and philo-islamic globalism, is obvious in the above
> post.

A fair amount of stuff being written in this thread is at best
misguided, and at worst utter nonsense.

Buddhists have done their share of genocide and terrorist acts. The
"killing fields" genocide in 1970s Cambodia was perpetrated by
Buddhists. The ongoing genocide and ethnic cleansing of Rohingya
Muslims in Burma (Myanmar) is being perpetrated by Buddhists.

In the Sri Lanka civil war that ended in May 2009, it was the
Buddhists and Hindus that were perpetrating war crimes and terrorist
acts; the Muslims mostly stayed out of it.

So there are plenty of recent examples of Buddhist war crimes and
genocide, and there's no reason to reject them automatically as the
perpetrators of the Sri Lanka bombing.

Muslims make up 9.7% of the population, Roman Catholics make up 6.1%,
Hindu 12.6%, and Buddhists make up 70.2%. All of these groups were
traumatized by the Sri Lanka civil war.

The biggest mistake that people make is to assume that Sri Lanka
society is similar to American or European or Indian society, all of
which are in generational Crisis eras. In fact, Sri Lankan society is
in a generational Recovery era, like America in the 1950s. That was
the time when the Silent Generation were taking charge. They had been
so traumatized by the Great Depression and WW II, that Time Magazine
called them the Silent Generation because they just did their job and
never complained.

Sri Lanka's society today is like that, in a generational Recovery era
following the crisis civil war. Everyone -- the Sinhalese, the
Tamils, the Buddhists, the Hindus, the Muslims -- everyone is still in
a state of shock, traumatized by the atrocities that had been
committed during the civil war, just doing their jobs, not
complaining.

Any one of these groups might have perpetrated the bombing on Sunday.
The main difference for the Muslim NTJ, based on news reports, is that
a small disaffected group of Muslims vandalizing Buddhist statues were
radicalized by ISIS operatives, and convinced to declare allegiance to
ISIS. They were probably offered money. They were then forced to
accept training, and to turn their targets away from Buddhist statuess
towards Christians and western tourists. News reports indicate
that this took many months, possibly a full year.

ISIS is currently in a state of crisis. They've lost their caliphate
in Syria and Iraq, but they haven't been wiped out. They have to
change their game plan, and what we're seeing is probably the first
example of a new tactic: Enter a country, find a small group of
disaffected Muslims, and use money and other incentives to convince
then to declare allegiance to ISIS, and then accept the ISIS
directions.

Al-Qaeda might imitate, and there might be similar attacks in other
countries in the next few months.

[John J. Xenakis]

(04-22-2019, 12:22 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > ** 21-Apr-2019 Seasteading -- Hiding out from World
> War III

> -- do you think that can actually work? What about the naval
> frigates also floating around on the seas? Or aircraft carriers?
> Or subs with nukes?

All I can tell you is that Vince Cate seems sure it would work. If
you google the word "seasteading," there are a lot of links to it, and
one of them might discuss whether you're likely to run into an
aircraft carrier. However, the ocean is very huge, so you might be
safe.