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**John J. Xenakis** · 10-25-2019, 11:35 AM

** 25-Oct-2019 World View: New beetle named after Greta Thunberg

[Image: _109371497_gretaeindex.jpg]

Greta Thunberg and Nelloptodes greta (BBC)

Greta Thunberg, the Swedish teenage girl who has been going around the
world declaring that we should all be ashamed of ourselves because
we're inflicting climate change on her, now has a brand new honor.

Scientist Dr Michael Darby was studying a newly-discovered species of
beetle, and decided to name it "Nelloptodes greta" after Thunberg
because he was "immensely impressed" by her environmental campaigning.

Thunberg shares this honor with others. A scientist named an
amphibian "Dermophis donaldtrumpi" after Donald Trump because it
buries its head in the sand.

And a German admirer of Adolf Hitler in 1933 named a blind cave beetle
the "Anophthalmus hitleri."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50182815

**John J. Xenakis** · 10-25-2019, 01:22 PM

** 25-Oct-2019 World View: Charles Barkley: Pence needs to shut the hell up

Yesterday I posted a message about Mike Pence's speech harshly
criticizing China's property theft and human rights record, such as
its arrest of priests and other religious clerics, and its
imprisonment and enslavement of millions of Muslim Uighurs in East
Turkistan (Xinjiang Province).

Pence also criticized the NBA for kowtowing to China's demands not to
speak, saying, "In siding with the Chinese Communist Party and
silencing free speech, the NBA is acting like a wholly owned
subsidiary of the authoritarian regime."

Former NBA star Charles Barkley responded as follows:

Quote: "Vice President Pence needs to shut the hell up,
number one. All American companies are doing business in China. I
thought the criticism of commissioner Silver and LeBron James was
unfair. Daryl Morey — who I like — he can say whatever he wants
to. But there are consequences.

I don’t understand why these holier-than-thou politicians — if
they’re so worried about China, why don’t they stop all
transactions with China? President Trump has been talking about
and arguing with tariffs for China for the last two years. I think
it’s unfair for them to do all their business in China and just
because this thing happens try to make the NBA and our players
look bad. All American companies do business in
China. Period."

Several commentators have noted the hyprocrisy that Barkley feels free
to criticize Pence (and Trump) in the most hostile terms with
impunity, but is demanding that no one be permitted to criticize
China.

https://sports.yahoo.com/charles-barkley...26523.html

Marypoza · 10-25-2019, 01:32 PM

(10-22-2019, 12:11 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: LOL, Xenakis to replying to posts made two months ago when there were over half a dozen posts made just yesterday and today. I know the subject matter of the Yesterday's posts made you uncomfortable because it refutes the notion of 330 million Americans all loving liberal democracy and hating all totalitarianism, but that just isn't true. A lot of us have come to like totalitarianism and want the creation of a nationalist military state. Hillary is a globalist who is hated by the majority of the citizenry. You boomers can't even run political primaries according to the normal processes because doing so would return a result contrary to globalism. Gabbard, Williamson, Yang and Bullock are far more representative of what average Joe six-pack Americans believe in than Hillary or warren. On the Right it is TRUMP, NOT Jeb Bush, Graham or the late Mccain; who is far more representative of what the average Joe six-pack wants.

Boomers attempt to preserve the 1990s method and mindset regarding how America does things even after 9/11 is resulting in the government losing its legitimacy with the American People.

Hillary is the Russian Agent, Not Bernie or Tulsi. The notion that the Clintons are patriotic is something only stupid dog eared boomers would believe in. Warren won't be accepted as the nominee, and I'm Not referring to republicans who will side with trump, I'm referring to large segments of the democrats themselves, who will knife the woketards in the back if the latter forces through warren as nominee.

-- l think they are gonna try to ram Groper Joe down our throats myself

**David Horn** · 10-25-2019, 03:04 PM

(10-25-2019, 01:32 PM)Marypoza Wrote: -- l think they are gonna try to ram Groper Joe down our throats myself

I think the PTB think it's the right choice, and I also think they've lost control of the process. My bet: EW. If not her, then it's open season.

**John J. Xenakis** · 10-25-2019, 10:04 PM

*** 26-Oct-19 World View -- Mike Pence harshly criticizes China as US bans Chinese surveillance equipment

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Growing Western hostility and suspicion towards China
Mike Pence harshly criticizes China as US bans Chinese surveillance equipment
Backlash grows against Chinese surveillance and AI equipment
US bans doing business with Chinese surveillance and AI firms
China's growing global surveillance tentacles
The National Basketball Association (NBA) controversy
Mike Pence's criticism of the NBA and Nike

****
**** Growing Western hostility and suspicion towards China
****

[Image: g191025b.jpg]

Nike ad in 2018, part of its laughable 'Social Justice Leadership' program, showing Colin Kaepernick saying, 'Believe in something. Even if it means sacrificing everything. Just do it.'

US vice president Mike Pence on Thursday delivered a speech harshly
criticizing the entire list of CCP activities that the West considers
to be criminal -- jailing Uighurs, jailing priests, destroying
churches, IP theft, forced technology transfer, cyber-theft, South
China Sea crimes, and dozens more. Pence also criticized the
hypocrisy of the National Basketball Association (NBA) and Nike.

Pence's speech comes shortly after the US banned Chinese surveillance
companies. The speech triggered harsh replies from the NBA and China.

Once upon a time not so long ago, everybody loved China. America
saved China in both world wars. Americans considered China to be a
strange and wonderful place after World War II, despite the brutal
violence of the Communist dictator Mao Zedong. The Tiananmen Square
massacre was considered an aberration, and trade disputes were rarely
understood by the public.

So China was invited to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) in
2001, based on commitments that it would open up its economy to
outsiders, and would follow all the WTO rules and international law.
Western leaders believed that membership in the WTO would change China
for the better, encourage it to become a valued member of the
international community, and abandoning the hostile policies of the
past. None of that happened. Instead, China used the WTO as a tool
to make suckers out of Western nations, ignoring WTO rules and playing
victim, but angrily insisting that Western nations obey all WTO rules.
China always made it clear that WTO rules and international law apply
to everyone else but not to China, and signed agreements apply to the
other parties but not to China.

Things seriously began to change with the rise of Xi Jinping in 2011.
In 2013, the CCP issued "Document Number 9" which listed evil
"anti-China forces," including the following. Some of these "evil"
forces named in the document include democracy, human rights, civil
society, neoliberalism, and a free press. The reason the CCP gives
why all of these Western values are considered "evil" is because they
are interpreted to be weapons undermining the authority of the CCP.

These "evils" permeated every aspect of CCP policy under Xi. Specific
hostile acts were all performed under this doctrine, including illegal
activities in the South China Sea, violent crackdowns on Christians,
Buddhists and Muslims, the arrest and enslavement of millions of
Uighurs and Kazakhs, and crackdowns on free press and democracy
movements in Hong Kong.

This doctrine and these acts have steadily eroded the goodwill that
people in the West have had for China. Increasing, Westerners view
China with hostility and suspicion.

One of the most dramatic signs of the growing hostility to China is
that George Soros, who for decades has been an enormous admirer and
supporter of the CCP, has now turned against it, because the Social
Credit Score system is turning China into the worst police state in
world history.

****
**** Mike Pence harshly criticizes China as US bans Chinese surveillance equipment
****

Pence's speech on Thursday focused on several of China's illegal
practices:

<QUOTE>"The Communist Party in China has arrested Christian
pastors, banned the sale of Bibles, demolished churches, and
imprisoned more than one million Muslim Uighurs. ...

Last July, the director of the FBI told Congress that of his
agency’s 1,000 active investigations into intellectual property
theft, the majority involve China. American enterprises continue
to lose hundreds of billions of dollars each year in intellectual
property theft. ...

And today, China’s Communist Party is building a surveillance
state unlike anything the world has ever seen. Hundreds of
millions of surveillance cameras stare down from every vantage
point. Ethnic minorities must navigate arbitrary checkpoints
where police demand blood samples, fingerprints, voice recordings,
and multiple angle head shots, and even iris scans.

And China is now exporting to countries in Africa, Latin America,
and the Middle East the very same technological tools that it uses
in its authoritarian regime: tools that it’s deployed in places
like Xinjiang; tools that it’s deployed often with the help of
American companies.

And Beijing has also smashed the barriers between civilian and
military technological domains — a doctrine that China calls
“military-civilian fusion.” By law and presidential fiat,
companies in China — whether private, state-owned, or foreign —
must share their technologies with the Chinese
military."<END QUOTE>

China's massive buildout of surveillance equipment is reaching into
every country of the world, as China collects information on billions
of people, inside and outside China, which it puts into its huge big
data database.

There's a backlash growing against Chinese-made surveillance products
on multiple levels.

Surveillance cameras have been around for years, and few people were
concerned, as long as the cameras were used in places like banks and
busy intersections, and as long as nobody ever reviewed the video
except a human being.

Public alarm over the general surveillance issue has been increasing
as the public has become aware that not humans but computers are
increasing reviewing the video, using artificial artificial (AI)
technology that provides facial recognition capabilities, matching
faces up to records in databases, allowing the software to track any
individual in real time.

****
**** Backlash grows against Chinese surveillance and AI equipment
****

This comes amid increasing global awareness that the China's military
is using these same devices for surveillance in cities and countries
around the world.

This awareness was boosted by a shocking demonstration in August when
a researcher was able to prove that millions of surveillance devices
marketed by Dahua Technology, and installed around the world, contain
a secret backdoor that can easily be hacked, and used for
eavesdropping. That means that if you have one of these devices in
your war room, board room, or bedroom, even when the audio is
disabled, someone knowing the IP address of the device can access the
device remotely and secretly listen in to conversations and sounds in
that room. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZTza1BiahQ

A Duhua spokesman was quoted as saying that the company "conducted an
emergency investigation, and the preliminary results are that this
vulnerability does not exist after refactoring—some end-of-life
products may have security risks. We have a plan to repair the related
products." Wow! That's nice!

****
**** US bans doing business with Chinese surveillance and AI firms
****

The Dept. of Commerce announcement blocked eight Chinese companies,
and they can be divided roughly into two groups -- surveillance
cameras that capture video and audio and transmit it to the central
server over the internet, and artificial intelligence (AI) products
that interpret the video and audio being captured, particularly with
facial recognition and identification. The eight Chinese companies
are as follows:

Hangzhou-based Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd. claims
to be the world's largest manufacturer and supplier of video
surveillance products. Hikvision (pron HEYE-K-vizh-un) products
are used in countries around the world, and Hikvision receives nearly
30% of its 50 billion yuan ($7 billion) in revenue from
overseas. Hikvision grew out of China's military surveillance wing and
the Government retains a 42 per cent stake in the company.
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd. is the second-largest provider
of video surveillance products and services, behind Hikvision.
iFlytek creates speech recognition software converts audio
conversations into text, and natural language processing software,
which "understands" the words and takes appropriate action.
Beijing-based Megvii produces AI software products for image
recognition and deep learning, which "recognize" the video images
collected by the surveillance cameras and "understand" what's
happening, in order to take appropriate action.
SenseTime is an AI software company with products for face, image,
object and text recognition, video analysis, and autonomous driving
systems. The company has 700 clients and partners worldwide.
Fujian-based Xiamen Meiya Pico Information Co. Ltd produces
forensic software that's being used by police in Hong Kong to spy on
citizens' smartphones, providing access to images and audio files,
location data, call logs, messages and the phone’s calendar and
contacts.
Shanghai-based YITU Technology provides a facial recognition
platform that can quickly identify a face from China's vast database
containing two billion people. Reports indicate that China's Social
Credit Score system database, contains scans of almost every one of
China's 1.4 billion people citizen, plus scans of hundreds of millions
more people from countries around the world, obtained from hacking
into surveillance equipment sold by Hikvision and Dahua.
Shanghai-based Yixin Technology provides services for data
gathering and analysis, including big-data analysis for China's Social
Credit Score system database.

It's believed that the America and the West have been most successful
in developing advanced AI algorithms for surveillance and recognition,
but Chinese companies have a big advantage because of their huge data
base to use for training and testing purposes.

Ironically, China desperately needs surveillance data from around the
world for a completely different reason: testing its facial
recognition software. All the Han Chinese ("yellow race, black hair,
brown eyes, yellow skin") have similar facial characteristics, and the
Chinese need millions of faces of people from all countries and races
to test its facial recognition software.

****
**** China's growing global surveillance tentacles
****

It's frightening how successful China has been at using these
surveillance and AI technologies not only to imprison and enslave
millions of Muslim Uighters and Kazakhs, but also to continually
identify and track all activities of every Chinese citizen, as well as
millions of people outside of China.

Furthermore, a number of incidents have been reported that are
increasingly alarming people about the use of surveillance equipment,
including equipment made by other manufacturers.

During the last four years in Ecuador, China has installed a vast
surveillance system, known as the ECU-911 system, that can be used to
spy on all Ecuadorian citizens.

The China-made surveillance equipment contains as many as 4,200
cameras, monitored by 16 centers and around 3,000 employees. The
system lets the government track phones, and may soon be upgraded with
facial-recognition capabilities. The equipment was manufactured by
two Chinese firms, Huawei Technologies and China National Import &
Export Corp (CEIEC).

As with all Chinese-made network products, we have to assume that the
Chinese military is able to access the surveillance and data, and
correlate it with the data in their own databases.

In London, the developer of the prestigious King's Cross 67-acre
50-building Estate was forced to abandon plans to deploy facial
recognition technology throughout the site. It had already been used
at a busy intersection for two years, but attempts to extend it to the
entire site met with sharp opposition and a debate about the ethics of
facial recognition.

Surveillance technology in London goes much deeper than King's Cross.
Hikvision is generating millions of dollars in annual revenue by
supplying its surveillance cameras for use on the British
parliamentary estate, as well as to police, hospitals, schools, and
universities throughout the country. According to Adm. Lord Alan
West, "It’s rather like being able to get a Mata Hari into each
office."

The same kind of thing is true in Australia, which may be more exposed
to continual surveillance and spying by China's military than any
other country in the world. Australia has hundreds of thousands of
surveillance cameras, mostly made by Hikvision and Dahua, have been
installed in local council offices, at schools and universities, on
buses, in shopping centers and thousands of other public spaces across
Australia. The surveillence equipment is at use at every level of
government, from some of the most sensitive federal government
agencies, all the way down to suburban councils.

Australian officials have already been raising alarms about the
infiltration of Chinese people in the organs of Australia's
government, at a time when tensions are growing sharply because of
China's illegal activities in the South China Sea.

According to Fergus Hanson of Australia's Strategic Policy Institute:

<QUOTE>"It's a real dereliction of duty to have them in
military bases.

But even on the street you've got the potential to inadvertently
contribute towards Chinese espionage activity by providing real
time information about the situation on the ground, all over the
world, and in collective terms, quite an important data feed to
China."<END QUOTE>

There was even a backlash in Beijing, of all places. Parents and
students at Tsinghua High School were furious when it was discovered
that the school had installed surveillance cameras in all the male
toilets. Officials were forced to remove the cameras.

****
**** The National Basketball Association (NBA) controversy
****

In the last month, public hostility in America to China took another
huge leap forward, because of an event that's almost impossible to
believe. The event involved the National Basketball Association
(NBA), which is hugely popular in China, with millions of Chinese
following the games and purchasing related products, including Nike
sneakers. Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey posted a tweet
supporting the pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. The CCP has
blocked Twitter in China, so the tweet would never be seen by Chinese,
and would be quickly forgotten. But the CCP lashed out at the tweet,
considering it an insult to the Chinese people, and canceled several
NBA games and public events in China.

These events have substantially heightened the public's hostility to
the CCP, and awareness of the CCP's dictatorial policies. Many
commentators pointed out that the CCP uses violence to control public
opinion in China, and is now trying to use economic weapons to extend
its control of public opinion to everyone in the world.

The hostility to China has increased even further when basketball star
LeBron James made comments supporting the CCP, and condemning Daryl
Morey as being "uninformed." This has caused an enormous reaction in
the American public. People who previously didn't know how to spell
Hong Kong or who thought it was a kind of chop suey suddenly became
"informed" about what's going on in Hong Kong.

LeBron's support for the CCP is particularly ironic because of his
extremely vocal and vitriolic criticisms of Donald Trump in the past,
including this January 18, 2018, tweet, quoting Martin Luther King:
"-Injustice Anywhere Is A Threat To Justice Everywhere- Our Lives
Begin To End The Day We Become Silent About Things That Matter-
#ThankYouMLK50"

These events are important for three reasons.

First, these quickly moving events show how quickly simple events can
escalate. This is literally how world wars have begun.

Second, these events particularly affect public attitudes towards
Hikvision and other companies that are being banned. The trend has
been a growing public anxiety towards surveillance equipment in
general. But the massive use by China's military of AI-enhanced
surveillance equipment to violate human rights in all of China,
particularly in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, has focused public hostile
attitudes toward surveillance equipment to hostility to surveillance
equipment from China in ways we haven't seen before.

Third, these events show how easy it is for Americans to turn
against each other when money is involved. Generational Dynamics
predicts that once a "regeneracy event" occurs, such as a missile
attack on American soil, then political differences will be dropped,
and the country will unite behind the president.

****
**** Mike Pence's criticism of the NBA and Nike
****

Mike Pence's speech on Thursday heightened the controversy over the
NBA and Nike. Pence called out the NBA and Nike for kowtowing to
China:

<QUOTE>"And far too many American multinational corporations
have kowtowed to the lure of China’s money and markets by muzzling
not only criticism of the Chinese Communist Party, but even
affirmative expressions of American values.

Nike promotes itself as a so called “social justice champion,” but
when it comes to Hong Kong, it prefers checking its social
conscience at the door. Nike stores in China actually removed
their Houston Rockets merchandise from their shelves to join the
Chinese government in protest against the Rockets general
manager’s seven-word tweet, which read: “Fight for Freedom. Stand
with Hong Kong.”

And some of the NBA’s biggest players and owners, who routinely
exercise their freedom to criticize this country, lose their
voices when it comes to the freedom and rights of the people of
China. In siding with the Chinese Communist Party and silencing
free speech, the NBA is acting like a wholly owned subsidiary of
the authoritarian regime."<END QUOTE>

Pence's criticism of the NBA for hypocrisy and kowtowing to China
infuriated former NBA star Charles Barkley, who has substantial money
at stake. He responded as follows:

<QUOTE>"Vice President Pence needs to shut the hell up,
number one. All American companies are doing business in China. I
thought the criticism of commissioner Silver and LeBron James was
unfair. Daryl Morey — who I like — he can say whatever he wants
to. But there are consequences.

I don’t understand why these holier-than-thou politicians — if
they’re so worried about China, why don’t they stop all
transactions with China? President Trump has been talking about
and arguing with tariffs for China for the last two years. I think
it’s unfair for them to do all their business in China and just
because this thing happens try to make the NBA and our players
look bad. All American companies do business in
China. Period."<END QUOTE>

Several commentators have noted the hyprocrisy that Barkley feels free
to criticize Pence (and Trump) in the most hostile terms with
impunity, but is demanding that no one be permitted to criticize
China.

China's Foreign Ministry responded to Pence's speech as follows:

<QUOTE>"The most important criteria on China's human rights
situation is whether the Chinese people are satisfied. As the
country advances in leaps and bounds, the Chinese people have an
increasingly stronger sense of happiness and fulfillment. Our
government attaches high importance to protecting and advancing
human rights. During the past over four decades of reform and
opening-up, China's human rights cause has seen tremendous
progress that has been recognized by the world. The Chinese
people now enjoy unprecedented rights and freedoms. This is a fact
that no one can deny except for those obsessed with
prejudice. Nearly 200 million Chinese practice various religions,
of which more than 20 million are Muslim. Chinese people of all
ethnic groups enjoy full religious freedom in accordance with
law. ...

China's foreign policy is aboveboard as always. China pursues an
independent foreign policy of peace, a path of peaceful
development, a new type of international relations and a community
with a shared future for mankind. China never advances its own
interests at the expense of others, and its development will never
pose a threat to any country. China never seeks hegemony or
expansion. That's exactly why we have so many friends all over the
world. Some people's attempts to wantonly label China or drive a
wedge between China and other countries will never succeed. Such
attempts will bring nothing but shame on those people themselves.

While arbitrarily accusing and lecturing other countries,
Mr. Pence and his like have turned a blind eye to serious domestic
problems in the US and tried to cover their own political
malpractice by smearing other countries to divert public attention
in the US. From the PRISM program to frequent, severe shootings,
from extensive racial discrimination to obvious wealth gap, from
arbitrary sanctions and use of force on other countries to wanton
withdrawals from international agreements and treaties, there are
so many cases in point proving that the US has become notorious
for lack of moral principles and credibility. We advise some
people in the US to carefully examine themselves in the mirror,
get fully aware of their own problems and mind their own
business. They should cease talking utter nonsense and stop
playing mutually detrimental tricks as soon as
possible."<END QUOTE>

It's always exasperating to read the CCP's comments on anything, which
rarely have anything to do with the truth.

She says, "China never seeks hegemony or expansion." But China in
recent decades has annexed Tibet and East Turkistan, and slaughtered,
tortured, beat, raped and imprisoned millions of Buddhists and
Muslims. Today, China has illegally annexed the South China Sea, in
violation of internation law, and repeatedly lied about. The CCP
consider the Chinese to be the Master Race, immune from international
law.

And she says that racial discrimination in America is as bad as
China's human rights record, even though we are not beating,
torturing, locking up and jailing millions of Mexicans and blacks.

In heard one analyst at MSNBC wonder why China would ever sign a trade
deal with the US after that speech by Trump. The answer is that China
is desperate to end the sanctions, which have disrupted China's
relentless path to war.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

Sources:

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong,
National Basketball Association, NBA, Nike,
Mike Pence, Mao Zedong, World Trade Organization, WTO,
Document Number 9, Chinese Communist Party, CCP,
East Turkistan, Xinjiang, Uighurs, Kazakhs,
Dahua Technology, Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd,
iFlytek, SenseTime,
Ecuador, ECU-911, Huawei Technologies,
China National Import & Export Corp, CEIEC,
King's Cross, London,
Australia, Fergus Hanson, Strategic Policy Institute,
Tsinghua High School, Beijing,
Daryl Morey, Charles Barkley

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**John J. Xenakis** · 10-25-2019, 10:41 PM

** 25-Oct-2019 World View: Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2070

Quote:> Billionaire Ron Baron Forecasts Dow 650,000 Within 50 Years

> Billionaire Ron Baron was back on CNBC, making the case to
> investors that they need to buy stocks and ignore all risks and
> dream big because the market will be up massively in 50-years.

> The "buy-and-hold" billionaire said "fear is evident" in the stock
> market, and suggested to viewers that the Dow Jones Industrial
> Average could hit 650,000 by 2069/70.

> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/baron-...ng-america

Higgenbotham Wrote:> Anybody who is a "buy-and-hold" billionaire at a record high in
> the stock market got that way because they were super optimistic
> about stocks.

> Will a person like that ever recommend that stocks be sold? What
> will they say at a potential top? That the market is going down?
> Was he calling for Dow 650,000 at the 2009 low?

By 2070, there will have been a world war, and the world will be well
into the Singularity, and there may no longer be a stock market at
all.

But if we ignore all that, then the trend value of the DJIA
is given by the following formula:

trend value = 38.46486589 * exp(0.0457096666 * (date - 1900))

And in 2070, that equals:

"38.46486589 * exp(0.0457096666 * (2070 - 1900))" = 91161.5578464588

So ignoring the Singularity, the DJIA will be 91,000 in 2070.

** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...i.djia.htm

**David Horn** · (This post was last modified: 10-26-2019, 08:42 AM by David Horn.)

(10-25-2019, 10:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: By 2070, there will have been a world war, and the world will be well into the Singularity, and there may no longer be a stock market at all.

… So ignoring the Singularity, the DJIA will be 91,000 in 2070.

You seem fascinated by the Singularity which, by definition, cannot be contemplated in any reasonable fashion. Will it happen at some point? Sure. We're already plodding along with quantum computing, and conventional AI. Marrying the two virtually guarantees a quantum change (pun intended). The real problems are two: when and what. When requires a crystal ball, since all projections of fundamental change are wrong, right to the minute they're right. A breakthrough (hopefully one that doesn't threaten the future existence of humans) will trigger the fallover point, and it's off to the races form there … probably, at least. We can't really know. The 'what' is even harder to fathom. Humans may cease to exist, become trans-human, become something akin to pets or be partners with the emerging new paradigm … or something else entirely.

So let's make a few assumptions. First: we won't live to see any of this. Second: our children may not either. Third: the generations in place at the time will be the product of what we do in the interim. Fourth: no single path is identifiably better than any other, when the goal is totally undefined -- with one exception. We humans should prefer some substantial degree of freedom at the entry point. That guarantees nothing, but makes much more possible. This is no different than the goals we're trying to reach in the current paradigm, so we should get on with it, and let the futurists look for the coming magic in the entrails they study.

**John J. Xenakis** · 10-26-2019, 07:19 PM

** 26-Oct-2019 World View: The Singularity

(10-26-2019, 08:41 AM)David Horn Wrote: > You seem fascinated by the Singularity which, by definition,
> cannot be contemplated in any reasonable fashion. Will it happen
> at some point? Sure. We're already plodding along with quantum
> computing, and conventional AI. Marrying the two virtually
> guarantees a quantum change (pun intended). The real problems are
> two: when and what. When requires a crystal ball, since all
> projections of fundamental change are wrong, right to the minute
> they're right. A breakthrough (hopefully one that doesn't
> threaten the future existence of humans) will trigger the fallover
> point, and it's off to the races form there … probably, at least.
> We can't really know. The 'what' is even harder to fathom.
> Humans may cease to exist, become trans-human, become something
> akin to pets or be partners with the emerging new paradigm … or
> something else entirely.

> So let's make a few assumptions. First: we won't live to see any
> of this. Second: our children may not either. Third: the
> generations in place at the time will be the product of what we do
> in the interim. Fourth: no single path is identifiably better
> than any other, when the goal is totally undefined -- with one
> exception. We humans should prefer some substantial degree of
> freedom at the entry point. That guarantees nothing, but makes
> much more possible. This is no different than the goals we're
> trying to reach in the current paradigm, so we should get on with
> it, and let the futurists look for the coming magic in the
> entrails they study.

I don't know what word you're referring to that includes "cannot be
contemplated in any reasonable fashion" in its definition, but
Singularity is certainly not that word, since many people have
contemplated the Singularity in reasonable fashion.

Many quantities related to finance and technology grow at fixed
exponential rates. The DJIA does, which is why I can say that the
2070 trend value is 91,000.

The power of computers is also growing exponentially. Google "Moore's
Law" for more information, but even when transistors reach their
limits, things like quantum computing will continue the same
exponential growth.

I wrote an article in 2005 estimating that the Singularity will occur
around 2030. I re-posted the article a couple of years ago, since I
consider still to be valid.

** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...151228.htm

Other people who are knowledgeable about computers estimate 2040 or
2050, and in one case 2060. I don't recall anyone who is very
knowledgeable about computers estimating any later than that. So by
2070, the world will be well into the Singularity.

Here are a couple more articles I've written about the subject:

** 13-Mar-16 World View -- Google's AlphaGo computer defeats world champion at game of Go
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e160313

** 29-Dec-15 World View -- Artificial Intelligence breakthroughs in 2015, the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151229

** 19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e110219

Also, Tom Mazanec wrote a science fiction short story about time
travelers who survive World War III and the Singularity, but go back
in time and try to prevent them from happening at all.

** 'Maybe we'll get it right this time' by Tom Mazanec
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...090309.htm

pbrower2a · 10-26-2019, 08:40 PM

People enjoy thinking and creating, and the people who do those reasonably well are not going to delegate those functions to machines.

**John J. Xenakis** · 10-27-2019, 10:54 AM

(10-26-2019, 08:40 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: People enjoy thinking and creating, and the people who do those reasonably well are not going to delegate those functions to machines.

The machines will do their own thinking and creating.

**John J. Xenakis** · 10-27-2019, 10:56 AM

** 27-Oct-2019 World View: Trump announces that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi died like a dog

[Image: 964x580_JPG-SINGLE_7158589648867379782.jpg]

Trump announces that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi died
like a dog (Daily Mail)

Donald Trump announced the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
in a televised announced on Sunday morning. Since usually all I post
is "doom news," it's nice to post some good news that's significant.

Trump's description of the military details of how the mission was
carried out, and the bravery and effectiveness of our forces, was
really quite dramatic. If you didn't see the press conference live,
then you might try to find a youtube video.

No American soldiers were injured or killed. However, a dog working
with the special forces was wounded when he chased al-Baghdadi into a
cave, and al-Baghdadi blew himself up. Al-Baghdadi was whimpering and
screaming, and died like a dog.

What I found very interesting is that the mission was cleared in
advance by Russia, Turkey, Syria and the Kurds. They weren't
told what the mission was, but they were asked not to shoot down
our helicopters, which would be flying low.

The hideout, incidentally, was in Idlib, which was a surprise
to me.

I listened to the analysis on Fox News this morning, but switched
over to CNN a couple of times.

As usual, CNN has become a total sewer. The first time I switched
over, around 10:50 am ET, they were talking about how Trump should be
ashamed of himself for using the word "scum." At 11 am, the news at
the top of the hour was (paraphrasing): "Al-Baghdadi has been killed,
but the really important news is that the impeachment hearings are
showing what an incredibly, unbelievably horrible and evil person
Trump is."

Also, it was mentioned on Fox News that not a single Democrat leader
has congratulated the armed forces for killing al-Baghdadi. Pathetic.

So if there are any Democrats who happen to read this, let me provide
you with some news, since you obviously have absolutely no idea what's
going on in the world, couldn't find Syria on a map, and probably
don't even know how to read a map: Do you remember that nasty ISIS
organization that was beheading Americans during the Obama
administration? Well, the leader of ISIS was killed this morning.

If you're a Democrat, then I realize that Nancy Pelosi and AOC have
turned you into someone who is too stupid to understand anything more
than that, but you should try to remember that nugget of news. OK,
now you can go back to the latest Pelosi and AOC news.

---- Source:

-- Trump says Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi blew himself
up as U.S. troops closed in
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/nat...story.html
(Washington Post, 27-Oct-2019)

**John J. Xenakis** · 10-28-2019, 09:36 AM

** 28-Oct-2019 World View: A teaching moment for forum members

Trump's announcement of the killing of al-Baghdadi provides me with
a teaching opportunity for those who read the Generational Dynamics
web site and forum, and have been making snarky comments directed
at me with the implication that the only reason I wrote about
it is because you imagine I love Trump.

shoshin Wrote:> There's always a Tweet....

> Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) tweeted at 9:12 PM on Mon, Oct
> 22, 2012: Stop congratulating Obama for killing Bin Laden. The
> Navy Seals killed Bin Laden. #debate
> (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/stat...52480?s=09)

zzazz Wrote:> I saw the nes. Trump was boasting " I killed al-Baghdadi ", " I
> killed al-Baghdadi .", I killed al-Baghdadi ."

> And I thought to myself, Xenakis is claiming that Trump
> understands GD. But here is proof he doesn't, because GD says the
> individual leaders don't contribute a thing to history. So I
> thought I'd waltz over here to read Xenakis setting Trump
> right. But to my surprise what Xenakis was actually saying was
> "Trume killed al-Baghdadi". "Trump killed al-Baghdadi", "Trump
> killed al-Baghdadi". Sheeeeeeesh

So, in response to these snarky comments, here's what I wrote
on May 2, 2011, when Osama bin Laden was killed:

John Xenakis Wrote:> Osama bin Laden is dead

> Late Sunday evening, President Barack Obama announced that Osama
> bin Laden was killed a week ago by a U.S. bomb delivered manually,
> not by a drone, based on actionable US intelligence. DNA tests
> have confirmed that it's really OBL. Bin Laden was killed in a
> mansion in Abbottabad, Pakistan, near Islamabad. American bases
> around the world have been told to be on high alert for revenge
> attacks. The death of OBL is an important symbolic act at this
> time, but it may not have much effect on the operations in
> Afghanistan. OBL's death by American attack in Pakistan will have
> repercussions in relations between the U.S. and Pakistan, and will
> cause a backlash among Pakistanis who object to U.S. missile
> strikes in Pakistan. Furthermore, the fact that OBL was killed
> near the Pakistani capital of Islamabad will raise suspicions that
> Pakistan's intelligence group suspected or knew where he was.
> Hundreds of joyful Washingtonians and students gathered outside
> the north lawn of the White House, cheering, chanting "USA!" and
> singing the Star Spangled Banner.

> ** 2-May-11 World View -- Osama bin Laden is dead
> ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e110502

So as you can see, Dear Snarky Reader, what I wrote about the bin Laden
killing has the same tone as what I wrote about the al-Bagdadi killing.

This is a good example of how I treated Obama and Trump in exactly
the same way.

The real evil today is the total demented obsession that Democrats
have with Trump.

The result is that Democrats are becoming stupider every day. The
reason is that there's a lot going on in the world, but Democrats know
almost nothing about it, since they know little to start with, and
then the Democrats spend 24 hours a day obsessing over their
impeachment carnival instead of paying attention to the world. So
they know less and less about the world every day (except for the ones
who read my web site). So I'm not joking when I say that Democrats
are getting stupider every day. And Hillary Clinton, particularly,
seems to have become psychotic.

Finally, I'll address zzazz's idiotic comment about the significance
of the death of al-Bagdadi.

I'll start with an example. World War I was triggered when Austrian
Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb high school
student. It's not that Ferdinand was some fantastic leader who was
controlling history. It's because the killing was an event that
triggered other events.

So the killing of al-Baghdadi will almost certainly provoke revenge
attacks, as the killing of bin Laden did. During his press
conference, Trump repeatedly said that al-Baghdadi died like a coward,
died like a dog, whimpering and crying. He said that repeatedly so
that it would be clear that al-Baghdadi was no hero, but a pathetic
figure who should be forgotten, not avenged.

Another interesting thing about the killing, which I mentioned in
the article, is that the US received the cooperation of Russia,
Turkey, and others in the operation.

Generational Dynamics is a non-ideological methodology for
interpreting and analyzing history and current events. The Core
Principle of Generational Dynamics, which I've stated many times, is
as follows:

Quote: Core Principle of Generational Dynamics:

"Even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of
people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians.
Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II or the Holocaust. What
politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their
actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent,
and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events
of history -- but can only bring about marginal
adjustments."

The Core Principle applies to Trump, to Obama, to al-Baghdadi, to
Ferdinand, and to all politicians.

I've written 6,000 articles in the last 15 years, containing thousands
of Generational Dynamics analyses and predictions about hundreds of
countries, all of which have come true or are trending true. There is
no journalist, politician, analyst or web site anywhere in the world
with a better record of accurate analysis and forecasting.
Generational Dynamics is a major development.

pbrower2a · 10-28-2019, 10:51 AM

Dogs may be among the nastiest predators in the animal world, rivaling bears and cats in causing other animals to flee for their lives -- but they do not make and detonate suicide vests, let alone induce others to use them in mass murder.

pbrower2a · (This post was last modified: 10-28-2019, 07:17 PM by pbrower2a.)

(10-28-2019, 09:36 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 28-Oct-2019 World View: A teaching moment for forum members

Trump's announcement of the killing of al-Baghdadi provides me with
a teaching opportunity for those who read the Generational Dynamics
web site and forum, and have been making snarky comments directed
at me with the implication that the only reason I wrote about
it is because you imagine I love Trump.

shoshin Wrote:> There's always a Tweet....

> Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) tweeted at 9:12 PM on Mon, Oct
> 22, 2012: Stop congratulating Obama for killing Bin Laden. The
> Navy Seals killed Bin Laden. #debate
> (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/stat...52480?s=09)

zzazz Wrote:> I saw the nes. Trump was boasting " I killed al-Baghdadi ", " I
> killed al-Baghdadi .", I killed al-Baghdadi ."

> And I thought to myself, Xenakis is claiming that Trump
> understands GD. But here is proof he doesn't, because GD says the
> individual leaders don't contribute a thing to history. So I
> thought I'd waltz over here to read Xenakis setting Trump
> right. But to my surprise what Xenakis was actually saying was
> "Trume killed al-Baghdadi". "Trump killed al-Baghdadi", "Trump
> killed al-Baghdadi". Sheeeeeeesh

So, in response to these snarky comments, here's what I wrote
on May 2, 2011, when Osama bin Laden was killed:

John Xenakis Wrote:> Osama bin Laden is dead

> Late Sunday evening, President Barack Obama announced that Osama
> bin Laden was killed a week ago by a U.S. bomb delivered manually,
> not by a drone, based on actionable US intelligence. DNA tests
> have confirmed that it's really OBL. Bin Laden was killed in a
> mansion in Abbottabad, Pakistan, near Islamabad. American bases
> around the world have been told to be on high alert for revenge
> attacks. The death of OBL is an important symbolic act at this
> time, but it may not have much effect on the operations in
> Afghanistan. OBL's death by American attack in Pakistan will have
> repercussions in relations between the U.S. and Pakistan, and will
> cause a backlash among Pakistanis who object to U.S. missile
> strikes in Pakistan. Furthermore, the fact that OBL was killed
> near the Pakistani capital of Islamabad will raise suspicions that
> Pakistan's intelligence group suspected or knew where he was.
> Hundreds of joyful Washingtonians and students gathered outside
> the north lawn of the White House, cheering, chanting "USA!" and
> singing the Star Spangled Banner.

> ** 2-May-11 World View -- Osama bin Laden is dead
> ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e110502

So as you can see, Dear Snarky Reader, what I wrote about the bin Laden
killing has the same tone as what I wrote about the al-Bagdadi killing.

This is a good example of how I treated Obama and Trump in exactly
the same way.

Obama recognized the slightness of his role (signing off on the decision), gave credit to the intelligence services and the Armed Services for a job done well, and asserted that anyone who kills Americans in terrorist attacks can expect much the same. He did not gloat.

Quote:The real evil today is the total demented obsession that Democrats
have with Trump.

Donald Trump is a horrible person wholly unsuited to the Presidency. It is he who has the sick obsession with the repudiation of his predecessor. The next effective conservative President will act much more like Obama than like Trump.

Ronald Reagan had his limitations, but he at least recognized those limitations, could recognize sage advice from people more expert than he, and could back off from something going awry.

Quote:The result is that Democrats are becoming stupider every day. The
reason is that there's a lot going on in the world, but Democrats know
almost nothing about it, since they know little to start with, and
then the Democrats spend 24 hours a day obsessing over their
impeachment carnival instead of paying attention to the world. So
they know less and less about the world every day (except for the ones
who read my web site). So I'm not joking when I say that Democrats
are getting stupider every day. And Hillary Clinton, particularly,
seems to have become psychotic.

No, just more certain and resolute as Trump piles on more objectionable behavior while solving nothing. Besides, Democrats seem to be winning more of the well-educated part of the electorate from the Republican Party while losing the under-educated part of the white population as part of the electorate. Meanwhile, Asians and Hispanics have not been assimilating into the Republican Party as they used to when they assimilate into the middle class. As late as 1964, a majority of Americans with college degrees voted for Barry Goldwater. Eisenhower won overwhelming majorities among college graduates and did badly among high-school dropouts. Obama won a majority of college graduates and lost badly to under-educated white voters (people with no college education are now considered under-educated). To be sure, under-educated blacks and Hispanics still vote heavily Democratic, probably because the well-off in their ethnic groups have influence upon them as well-off white people have little influence upon poor whites.

There are far more people with college degrees than there used to be, and the ill-educated white people could never get along with the Eisenhower-Rockefeller Republicans once necessary for Republican wins of the Presidency. Scratch the surface of Obama supporters in the suburbs, and you often find an Eisenhower-Rockefeller Republican in ideology -- someone aghast at any form of demagoguery, including anti-intellectualism.

Quote:I'll start with an example. World War I was triggered when Austrian
Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb high school
student. It's not that Ferdinand was some fantastic leader who was
controlling history. It's because the killing was an event that
triggered other events.

Europe was a powder-keg. Its most powerful leaders still had the attitude characteristic that any offense to the Ruler was a cause for striking back hard. Meanwhile the political leadership had failed to adjust to the economic and cultural realities making near-absolute monarchy obsolete. Leaders often were still of the mindset that had established the reactionary era following the defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte. Golden Ages, as the historian Barbara Tuchman wrote in The Proud Tower, do not immolate themselves in mutually-suicidal warfare, let alone make the likes of Lenin and Hitler possible in the aftermath. Something other than the assassination of the Archduke would have precipitated something like WWI.

Quote:So the killing of al-Baghdadi will almost certainly provoke revenge
attacks, as the killing of bin Laden did. During his press
conference, Trump repeatedly said that al-Baghdadi died like a coward,
died like a dog, whimpering and crying. He said that repeatedly so
that it would be clear that al-Baghdadi was no hero, but a pathetic
figure who should be forgotten, not avenged.

As I like to put it, history is all too often an obscene tale whose ink is the blood of innocent people, including those who get dragooned into war as soldiers. Yes, the German soldier of WWII was usually as innocent as Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel was guilty.

...If Osama bin Laden died pleading for his life, then Obama had the decency to not say so. al-Baghdadi may have spared himself of a court trial in which his crimes against humanity would be exposed, and of course it is regrettable that he took three children with him.

We have a good reason for studying history -- not so much for any pornography of human suffering, but instead so that we can avoid making the same or similar mistakes when the opportunity arises. It is best to stop the tempting retribution when judging the culpable. We must remember Genghis Khan and Adolf Hitler. Yes, I see Donald Trump as the American equivalent of Nero or Caligula. To be sure, neither Nero nor Caligula was elected, but both became demagogues in practices. Donald Trump got elected as a demagogue. If we Americans are to learn anything from the Trump mess, it is that we must reject demagoguery in any form and not believe that we simply need to elect the demagoguery that fits our values and desires.

Some day we may find, as in 1980, that the solution to mass economic distress in which many complain about being overworked and underpaid is to be worked harder for less and compensate for such by taking on second jobs that we find even more degrading so that we can all share in the creation of wealth that ultimately creates more opportunity and puts an end to stagflation.

Quote:Another interesting thing about the killing, which I mentioned in
the article, is that the US received the cooperation of Russia,
Turkey, and others in the operation.

Trump said it, so it must be true. Sure.

Such as that global warming is a myth? Then why did I see a small snake slithering around last Sunday even if snakes usually have hibernated by now where I live? It's almost Halloween, and I have yet to have seen any frost. Yes, I live to the north of Interstate 90, so I have not moved south.

Quote:Generational Dynamics is a non-ideological methodology for
interpreting and analyzing history and current events. The Core
Principle of Generational Dynamics, which I've stated many times, is
as follows:

Quote: Core Principle of Generational Dynamics:

"Even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of
people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians.
Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II or the Holocaust. What
politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their
actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent,
and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events
of history -- but can only bring about marginal
adjustments."

The Core Principle applies to Trump, to Obama, to al-Baghdadi, to
Ferdinand, and to all politicians.

I've written 6,000 articles in the last 15 years, containing thousands
of Generational Dynamics analyses and predictions about hundreds of
countries, all of which have come true or are trending true. There is
no journalist, politician, analyst or web site anywhere in the world
with a better record of accurate analysis and forecasting.
Generational Dynamics is a major development.

So what blinds you to the hollowness, cruelty, recklessness, ignorance, and dishonesty of Donald Trump? As Heraclitus puts it in one of the shortest but most complete statements of wisdom ever made,

Character is destiny.

I can say this: if I had a child to raise I would put character above all intellectual ability, cultural sophistication, class privilege, and technical wizardry. Poor character makes all those advantages makes one even more damaging if one gets the opportunity to use such talent. I have gotten to meet people often derided as "trailer trash". For whatever limitations they have, many are far better people than Donald Trump even if they have humble roles as cleaners, servants, or laborers.

I no longer deride people as "trailer trash". It is not the trailer that makes trash out of people: it is people who trash their state in life, whether they be people so disabled that they cannot hold jobs or heirs of great fortunes.

The world would be far better off had Josef Goebbels been a farmhand.

**David Horn** · 10-28-2019, 01:25 PM

(10-26-2019, 07:19 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 26-Oct-2019 World View: The Singularity

(10-26-2019, 08:41 AM)David Horn Wrote: You seem fascinated by the Singularity which, by definition, cannot be contemplated in any reasonable fashion...

I don't know what word you're referring to that includes "cannot be contemplated in any reasonable fashion" in its definition, but Singularity is certainly not that word, since many people have contemplated the Singularity in reasonable fashion.

Give this a moment's thought. Why should something so drastically different be imaginable in any real degree? The best thought exercise I ever heard, (note: it's not mine to claim) made the point perfectly. Get in a Wayback Machine, and travel to Runnymede at the time of the signing of the Magna Carta -- surely an example of advanced thinking for its time. Once there, find someone to harangue about the future, and expound to him or her (most likely, him) about the Internet. For that matter, just get them to understand life in the 21st century. No one in that time would have had a usable benchmark for anything we take for granted. Air conditioning and automobiles would be magic, but the internet -- simply beyond comprehension.

For us, the Singularity is our future "Internet".

**John J. Xenakis** · 10-28-2019, 04:58 PM

** 28-Oct-2019 World View: Algorithms for the Singularity

(10-28-2019, 01:25 PM)David Horn Wrote: > Give this a moment's thought. Why should something so drastically
> different be imaginable in any real degree? The best thought
> exercise I ever heard, (note: it's not mine to claim) made the
> point perfectly. Get in a Wayback Machine, and travel to
> Runnymede at the time of the signing of the Magna Carta -- surely
> an example of advanced thinking for its time. Once there, find
> someone to harangue about the future, and expound to him or her
> (most likely, him) about the Internet. For that matter, just get
> them to understand life in the 21st century. No one in that time
> would have had a usable benchmark for anything we take for
> granted. Air conditioning and automobiles would be magic, but the
> internet -- simply beyond comprehension.

> For us, the Singularity is our future "Internet".

The thing is that the Singularity is not drastically different at all.

Here's an example. The first major chess-playing program was written
in the 1960s, using the "minimax algorithm." The way that algorithm
works is "if I play A then you'll play B and I'll play C or if I
play A and you play X then I'll play Y." So the algorithm creates
a tree of possible moves and responses, and uses that to select the
best move. It was a pretty weak chess player.

So when IBM's Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov to become world chess
champion in 1996, it was using the EXACT SAME minimax algorithm. The
only difference is that computers were much faster in 1996. In the
1960s, the move tree was only about 3 levels deep, but in 1996, on an
IBM supercomputer, it was more like 15 levels deep.

So there's nothing mystical about a computer chess champion. In fact,
this was already recognized in the 1960s that one day the 1960s
computer program would be world champion on a sufficiently fast computers.

The Singularity is exactly the same. A computer making decisions to
win a war or invent a new widget can do so with the same minimax
algorithm, except that the tree will have to be much wider. This
is well understood, and the only question is how long it will be before
computers are fast enough. I estimate 2030.

This is the article that I wrote in 2005 on the Singularity, and
reposted in 2015:

** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...151228.htm

In that article, I described in detail the algorithm that will be used
to make computers smarter than humans. That algorithm could never
have been implement in 2005 because computers were too slow. But by
2030, computers should be fast enough to implement it.

In recent years, the minimax algorithm has been buttressed by
additional algorithms. Pattern matching algorithms will provide a
kind of "intuition," where an AI robot can made decisions by comparing
the current situation to a large database of similar situations in the
past. Deep Learning algorithms are used to create the large database
to be used in pattern matching.

You mentioned quantum computing in a previous post. Quantum computing
is perfect for this application because a quantum computer should be
able to perform millions of pattern matching tests in a few
microseconds.

Once again, there's nothing mysterious, magical, or spiritual about
this. There's no need for God to breathe on an AI computer to give it
a soul. The algorithms are well understood today, and all that's
needed is a fast enough computer.

Warren Dew · (This post was last modified: 10-28-2019, 10:17 PM by Warren Dew.)

While I agree with the "fast enough computer" theory, I don't necessarily agree with the idea that we'll get computers fast enough and efficient enough.

Here's the issue: for decades, Moore's law was driven by reduction in processor size. Unfortunately, within the past decade, that reduction reached a physical limit as circuits on the chips shrank to the point that inductance effects between adjacent "wires" became limiting.

At this point, Moore's law is being driven by parallelism instead of more powerful processors: having larger numbers of the same old processors running in parallel. That can still result in ever more powerful computers - but they will also be ever larger and consume ever more energy. That limits their usefulness in certain applications, in particular mobile applications.

In 2050, the best artists may well be computers which fill buildings. We may still be traveling around town in Uber and Lyft vehicles driven by human beings, however.

pbrower2a · 10-29-2019, 09:02 AM

(10-28-2019, 10:16 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: While I agree with the "fast enough computer" theory, I don't necessarily agree with the idea that we'll get computers fast enough and efficient enough.

Here's the issue: for decades, Moore's law was driven by reduction in processor size. Unfortunately, within the past decade, that reduction reached a physical limit as circuits on the chips shrank to the point that inductance effects between adjacent "wires" became limiting.

At this point, Moore's law is being driven by parallelism instead of more powerful processors: having larger numbers of the same old processors running in parallel. That can still result in ever more powerful computers - but they will also be ever larger and consume ever more energy. That limits their usefulness in certain applications, in particular mobile applications.

In 2050, the best artists may well be computers which fill buildings. We may still be traveling around town in Uber and Lyft vehicles driven by human beings, however.

We have another constraint: human capacity to deal with the capacity of our machines. Just consider automobiles: the Model-T Ford was an easy machine to maintain and fix. Sure, it was an awful car by contemporary standards; it could never cope with the freeways of Dallas and it would be grossly unsafe. Henry Ford wanted it easy to repair because many people still farmers and ranchers were far away from a repair shop. Today's cars have collapsible steering columns which are less likely to kill a driver than the rigid ones that impaled him and have front sections designed to give way and absorb the shock of a collision. Cars have catalytic converters to reduce emissions of carbon monoxide (and as a side effect preclude the use of dangerous tetraethyl lead). That is before we even discuss the air conditioner which allows us to drive in 40C heat without getting heatstroke and allows us to drive I-80 from Nebraska to Ohio without going mad.

But that is nothing in contrast to computing. Data can simply overwhelm us.

I am going to say this about creative people: many people in mindless, repetitive jobs dream of being creative people even if the mindless, repetitive job pays well enough to offer a middle-income way of life. Creative people rarely dream of becoming assembly-line workers or checker-cashiers. Writers, editors, composers, musicians, actors, and artists will protect their privileged roles of doing work that they love from computers taking over. OK, there will be CGI that we will not escape, but all in all even the CGI requires artists to do the storyboards and edit the results. It might be technically possible to get simulations of John Wayne and Clint Eastwood into the same Western movie (they never appeared in the same movie!) -- but it will not be credible.

**David Horn** · 10-29-2019, 09:07 AM

(10-28-2019, 04:58 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 28-Oct-2019 World View: Algorithms for the Singularity

(10-28-2019, 01:25 PM)David Horn Wrote: Give this a moment's thought. Why should something so drastically different be imaginable in any real degree? The best thought exercise I ever heard, (note: it's not mine to claim) made the point perfectly. Get in a Wayback Machine, and travel to Runnymede at the time of the signing of the Magna Carta -- surely an example of advanced thinking for its time. Once there, find someone to harangue about the future, and expound to him or her (most likely, him) about the Internet. For that matter, just get them to understand life in the 21st century. No one in that time would have had a usable benchmark for anything we take for granted. Air conditioning and automobiles would be magic, but the internet -- simply beyond comprehension.

For us, the Singularity is our future "Internet".

The thing is that the Singularity is not drastically different at all.

Here's an example. The first major chess-playing program was written in the 1960s, using the "minimax algorithm." The way that algorithm works is "if I play A then you'll play B and I'll play C or if I play A and you play X then I'll play Y." So the algorithm creates a tree of possible moves and responses, and uses that to select the best move. It was a pretty weak chess player.

So when IBM's Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov to become world chess champion in 1996, it was using the EXACT SAME minimax algorithm. The only difference is that computers were much faster in 1996. In the 1960s, the move tree was only about 3 levels deep, but in 1996, on an IBM supercomputer, it was more like 15 levels deep.

So there's nothing mystical about a computer chess champion. In fact, this was already recognized in the 1960s that one day the 1960s computer program would be world champion on a sufficiently fast computers.

The Singularity is exactly the same. A computer making decisions to win a war or invent a new widget can do so with the same minimax algorithm, except that the tree will have to be much wider. This is well understood, and the only question is how long it will be before computers are fast enough. I estimate 2030.

…

You mentioned quantum computing in a previous post. Quantum computing is perfect for this application because a quantum computer should be able to perform millions of pattern matching tests in a few microseconds.

Once again, there's nothing mysterious, magical, or spiritual about this. There's no need for God to breathe on an AI computer to give it a soul. The algorithms are well understood today, and all that's needed is a fast enough computer.

You just proved my point. You've assumed a continuum that evolves directly from the Von Neumann machine of today. The emerging technology that we'll call the Singularity will most likely differ as dramatically from a Von Neumann machine as our brains do. More to the point, what that means in practice is totally beyond our meager ability to define in any meaningful way.

If you look at my .sig, you'll see that intelligence, knowledge and wisdom are discrete characteristics. AI requires the first, and will be driven by the second, but the third is optional. The HAL9000 in "2001: a Space Odyssey" was intended as a warning. A computer of that capability operating on a quantum platform would reside easily inside a cellphone. The warning was too optimistic.

Hintergrund · 10-29-2019, 09:25 AM

(10-25-2019, 11:35 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: And a German admirer of Adolf Hitler in 1933 named a blind cave beetle
the "Anophthalmus hitleri."

Either this admirer was pretty stupid, or he wasn't really an admirer. Do your research.

And Greta's right about Climate Change.

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