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**John J. Xenakis** · 12-19-2019, 04:40 PM

** 19-Dec-2019 World View: Taiwan war

The BBC world service had a segment on the coming Taiwan
elections in the shadow of China. Major takeaways:

The chaos in Hong Kong is causing more Taiwanese to reject the
"one country, two systems" policy that the CCP would like to impose on
Taiwan. This favors the reelection of the pro-separatist incumbent
Tsai Ing-wen.
According to the BBC, it's uncertain whether Trump would
defend Taiwan in case of a military attack by China.
China has become a lot more powerful. The US could lose a war to
China in the Taiwan strait.

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-20-2019, 11:29 PM

*** 21-Dec-19 World View -- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey
Brief history of Libya's civil war / proxy war
Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens Egypt, Greece, Cyprus

****
**** War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey
****

[Image: g191220b.jpg]

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ® and Fayez al-Sarraj (L), the head of Libya's Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), meeting in Istanbul on November 27 (Anadolu)

The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya escalated sharply on Friday
as warplanes from the renegade government bombed targets in the
capital city Tripoli, as well as Misurata and Sirte.

The internationally recognized government is the Government of
National Accord (GNA), with headquarters in the capital city Tripoli,
in western Libya, led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. On Thursday,
the GNA and Turkey announced that Turkey would be supplying the GNA
with weapons, military advisors and, if requested, soldiers.

The renegade government is headed by General Khalifa Haftar, who
defected from the internationally recognized government in 2014 and
formed a government in eastern Libya in Tobruk, known as the Libyan
National Army (LNA).

The bombing of Tripoli and the two other cities began after the
announcement that Turkey would be supplying military aid to the GNA.
Haftar also issued an ultimatum that all GNA militias must pull out of
the three cities by Sunday evening. Haftar announced on Friday that
his forces were making "pre-emptive airstrikes against three separate
locations near Tripoli that were expected landing points for Turkish
military forces."

GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj asked Turkey, the US and several
European countries to come to their aid.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin said on Thursday said that he was
"in contact with all regional parties to try and end the conflict in
Libya."

It's been known for several months that the Wagner Group, Vladimir
Putin's "private" militia, has been operating in Libya in support of
Haftar. Putin has used Wagner in Syria, Ukraine and Central AFrican
Republic when he wants to intervene militarily, but maintain
deniability by not using the Russian army directly. (See "7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic"
)

On Friday, Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the "possible
deployment of Turkish troops in Libya is a source of worry" because it
"could trigger a reaction from neighboring states."

It's unclear what will happen when Haftar's deadline passes on Sunday
evening, but there is certainly a possibility of a much larger
conflict.

****
**** Brief history of Libya's civil war / proxy war
****

The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya is about to be escalated as
the Government of National Accord (GNA) in western Libya in Tripoli
has accepted Turkey's offer of military help. The GNA, headed by
prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj, is the government officially
recognized by the United Nations, the United States and the European
Union, and is militarily supported by Qatar, Italy, the Muslim
Brotherhood, and now Turkey.

Libya's civil war began in 2011 with the "Arab Spring" that was
triggered by the death of a food vendor next door in Tunisia. There
were widespread riots in multiple Arab countries in Spring 2011,
including Libya, where there were hundreds of thousands of Libyan
refugees pouring into neighboring countries, and thousands more
crossing the Mediterranean Sea into Europe. With a growing bloodbath
in Libya, the leader Muammar Gaddafi threatened to kill all
protesters, and crush any enemy, with mass slaughter. With Libya's
civil war destabilizing the entire region, the Arab League unanimously
requested the UN, the US and Europe to enforce a no-fly zone over
Libya, to keep Gaddafi from bombing and killing civilians. Nato
implemented a no-fly zone, but the conflict in Libya continued until
Gaddafi was killed.

In the aftermath, Libya became increasingly lawless and ungovernable.
Libya is a land of hundreds of militias, all competing with one
another for money and power. The United Nations attempted several
times to set up a stable government. The latest attempt is the
Government of National Accord (GNA), which is currently the government
internationally recognized by the UN, US, the EU, and particularly by
Libya's former colonial power, Italy. It is also an an Islamist
government supported by Qatar, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood.

However, in May 2014, General Khalifa Haftar defected from the
government and joined a group of anti-government militias who claimed
to be fighting Islamist terrorists. He was supported by Egypt's
General Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, who overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood
government in Egypt in 2013. Haftar was an ally of Muammar Gaddafi in
the 1969 Libyan revolution, but he turned against Gaddafi in the
1980s, and fled to the U.S. where he apparently became a citizen
living in Virginia and became a CIA asset. He returned to Libya after
the 2011 war. Haftar set up his own capital city in Tobruk in eastern
Libya, where he formed the Libyan National Army (LNA), and backed by
many former military officers as well as militias tied to the cities
of Benghazi, Tobruk and Ajdabiya in the east and Zintan in the west.

Starting in 2014, Haftar's forces moved west with the intention of
defeating the GNA government in Tripoli and taking control. Haftar
was supplied with weapons and backed by warplanes from Egypt and
United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Since then, Qatar and UAE have been supplying weapons to the opposing
sides, the Islamists and secularists, respectively, in Libya, making
it a proxy war. However, the war has continued with neither side
being successful in landing a decisive blow.

But now Turkey is joining Qatar in supplying weapons and military
advisors to the internationally recognized Islamist Government of
National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. So far, this is only advisors and
weapons, but not troops. We'll have to see if this results in a
victory by either side, or if there's a major escalation.

****
**** Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens Egypt, Greece, Cyprus
****

Yes, Dear Reader, there's more.

The military agreement under which Turkey is now providing weapons,
advisors and possibly soldiers to Libya was signed on November 28.

On the same day, the two countries also signed a Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) on "Delimitation Of The Maritime Jurisdiction
Areas In The Mediterranean." In this second agreement, Libya and
Turkey agreed to the boundaries of the continental shelf and the
exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of each country within the Mediterranean
Sea. The result is that they've created a 200-mile wide strip between
their countries that they claim they own as their shared EEZ, and
which are rich in minerals, oil and gas.

However, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus are pointing out that their own EEZ
regions supercede and conflict with the claimed Libya-Turkey EEZ
regions. In particular, the Libya-Turkey EEZ regions interfere with a
gigantic gas field off Egypt's coast, and with a planned pipeline
between Israel and Cyprus.

However, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that on the
basis of his country’s occupation since 1974 of Northern Cyprus, he
might lay claim to all waters around Cyprus.

There have already been verbal threats of war between Greece and
Turkey over oil and gas exploration around Cyprus, and those threats
may increase as a result of this new agreement between Libya and
Turkey.

Sources:

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Tripoli, Misurata, Sirte,
Fayez al-Sarraj, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
General Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, Benghazi, Ajdabiya,
Libyan National Army, LNA, Russia, Wagner Group,
Egypt, General Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Israel, Cyprus,
continental shelf, exclusive economic zone, EEZ

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-21-2019, 11:22 PM

*** 22-Dec-19 World View -- Syria, Russia veto humanitarian aid to Idlib as civilian massacre escalates

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Tens of thousands flee to Turkish border as Syria-Russia massacre escalates in Idlib
Russia and China veto humanitarian aid for Idlib

****
**** Tens of thousands flee to Turkish border as Syria-Russia massacre escalates in Idlib
****

[Image: g191221b.jpg]

Displaced Syrians in Idlib carry their belongings and try to escape al-Assad's violence by fleeing to the Syria-Turkey border (AFP)

The assault by the Syrian regime and Russia is continuing to escalate,
as I described several days ago. ( "19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border"
)

Massive bombardments by Syrian and Russian warplanes have continued.
The United Nations has condemned "a well-documented pattern of attacks
against civilians and infrastructure." This pattern involves the use
of powerful barrel bombs particularly targeting masses of women and
children, including attacks on schools, marketplaces, maternity
hospitals and other hospitals, and residential neighborhoods.

According to the UN, tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing for
their lives by traveling north towards the border with Turkey. There
are 3.5 million civilians in Idlib, and as the Syrian - Russian
assault continues to escalate, it's expected that several hundred
thousand will travel to the Turkey border, where they either be
slaughtered like fish in a barrel, or else they'll force themselves
into Turkey.

There's been another change in the last couple of weeks, with the
introduction of Syrian regime ground forces. They've been
concentrating on highway M5 in order to reopen the link between
Damascus and Aleppo. This has gone on while the airstrikes have
continued inside Idlib. Presumably, once the M5 highway has been
fully reopened, the ground troops will move into the other civilian
villages.

For two years, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been promising a
full-scale assault to take control of Idlib, even if it means killing
the 3.5 million Arab Sunni civilians, whom al-Assad considers to be
loathsome cockroaches to be exterminated.

Unless something changes, we're going to see a major new humanitarian
crisis. We're also going to see hundreds of thousands of civilians
crowd across the border into Turkey, and from there many thousands
will continue into Europe, creating a new European refugee crisis.

****
**** Russia and China veto humanitarian aid for Idlib
****

In a surprise on Friday in the UN Security Council, Russia and China
vetoed the resolution to continue the humanitarian aid program for
Idlib, and instead offered an alternative resolution that severely
restricted the amount of humanitarian aid.

The reason given is that program is no longer necessary, since Bashar
al-Assad now controls enough of Syria that he can provide the
humanitarian aid, instead of the United Nations. This is typical of
the laughable crap that we're always hearing from Russian officials
and Russian trolls.

The current aid resolution expires on January 10. Until then, the
United States and other diplomats are going to be negotiating with the
Russians to try to get the existing program extended.

This veto makes it pretty clear that the Syrian regime and Russia are
now going all out to take control of Idlib, no matter how many
millions of civilians are killed. Ironically, it won't end the war,
since there are still many pockets of anti-Assad Sunni Arabs across
Syria. Furthermore Turkey is in control of some of Syria's territory,
and the Kurds are in control of a large part of eastern Syria, as can
be seen in the map in my last article on Idlib.

It's pretty clear that al-Assad is going to finish up his massive
genocide and ethnic cleansing of his Sunni Arab political opponents.
Does anyone care except people who are paid to care?

Sources:

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad, Alawites,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, China

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-22-2019, 10:23 AM

** 21-Dec-2019 World View: The Generals keep getting paid

shoshin Wrote:> John, your "Afghan Papers" was full of your usual stunning
> insights (they seem obvious once you state them), and I wish
> our"leaders" could have a chance to digest them.

> But you left out one aspect of the Afghan War (and Iraq War, and
> and and...): Wars are Profitable! Not so much for those killed or
> maimed, but for all the supporting complex of industries and
> suppliers, it is. And the Generals keep getting paid, regardless,
> so they have no skin in the game. Makes you wonder who is running
> things.

Yeah, you're absolutely right. War is highly profitable. Genocide is
particularly profitable. We see that today where Bashar al-Assad is
benefiting handsomely by exterminating his Sunni Arab political
enemies. Not only him, but a whole army of United Nations bureaucrats
are getting paid to do studies, hold meetings, and issue statements
declaring outrage, proclaiming, "This is NOT acceptable!!"

But it's not just war that makes money. Take rape. Feminists love
as much rape as possible, because they make money from it.

However, rape is only a crime when the rapist is Republican. If
you're a girl or woman who's being violently raped by a Democrat like
Bill Clinton, then while he's banging around inside you, you might as
well just lie back and grit your teeth. Hell, you might as well even
try to enjoy it. But whatever you do, don't report it to anyone
because then Hillary Clinton or some Hillary clone will make sure that
you're beaten and raped again, and that your life will be destroyed.

That's the meaning of the feminist phrase, "The personal is
political." It means that rape itself is not the crime, and the girl
is not really the victim. The actual crime would be for the girl to
publicly accuse the Democrat of rape. That's an actual crime, and the
punishment for the perpetrator (the girl) will be harsh, severe and
possibly violent.

But that's only part of the story. The other part is that rape
by a Republican is where the feminists make all the money. However,
once again, it's not the rape itself that's the moneymaker. It's
the rape accusation against the Republican that makes money. Whether
there was an actual rape is irrelevant. It's the accusation that
makes the money. And what makes the most money is a false accusation
of rape, since then the man has to spend a lot of money on lawyers,
and then the feminists get a lot more money to fund the false
accusations.

Similarly, if a husband beats up his wife, then feminists pop open the
champagne bottles, because they can turn that into a whole slew of
funding for a flock of babbling divorce social workers. However, if a
wife scratches her husband's eyes out, then feminists will still make
lots of money by saying that the wife is the real victim.

Then there's climate change. Liberals love climate change, because it
gives the activists an opportunity to burn lots of jet fuel to attend
posh climate conferences. It also allows liberals to demand funding
for their favor political cronies and favorite warlords, who will use
the money to buy weapons.

There are many, many, many similar examples.

So Generals want more war, feminists want more rape, and liberals want
more climate change disasters. That's the way the world works.

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-22-2019, 07:56 PM

** 22-Dec-2019 World View: Hong Kong protesters show solidarity with Uighurs in concentration camps

[Image: 6720.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=forma...dc15323e2d]

[Image: 6720.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=forma...dc15323e2d]

A police officer during a rally in Hong Kong on Sunday in
support of the Uighurs (AFP)

After seven months, this week's pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong
took a different twist. About 1,000 people gathered peacefully,
waving Uighur flags and posters. One protester shouted through a
loutspeaker:

Quote: "We shall not forget those who share a common goal
with us, our struggle for freedom and democracy and the rage
against the Chinese Communist Party."

A mixed crowd of young and elderly people, dressed in black and
wearing masks to shield their identities, held up signs reading “Free
Uyghur, Free Hong Kong” and “Fake ‘autonomy’ in China results in
genocide”.

It's believed that over a million Muslim Uighurs in East Turkestan
(Xinjiang) have been arrested, confined to concentation camps, and either
killed or forced into slave labor.

If the Hong Kong protesters continue to identify with the Uighurs,
that will present even more severe problems for the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP).

Riot police broke up the peaceful demonstration with pepper spray, and
the protesters responded by hurling glass bottles and rocks at them.

---- Sources:

-- Hong Kong protesters rally against China's Uighur crackdown
https://www.dw.com/en/hong-kong-proteste...a-51771541
(Deutsche Welle, 22-Dec-2019)

-- Clashes as police try to clear Hong Kong protesters after Uighur
support rally
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongk...SKBN1YQ076
(Reuters, 22-Dec-2019)

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-22-2019, 10:41 PM

** 22-Dec-2019 World View: Turkey's Erdogan threatens Greece and Europe with Idlib refugees

[Image: thumbs_b_c_33d7b742c5a7330dd9b02be070a8f...g?v=211044]

Erdogan on Sunday

As I wrote yesterday, the massacre by Syria's sociopathic monster
president Bashar al-Assad, is trying to complete the job begun by his
father Hafez al-Assad and exterminate the 3.5 million Arab Sunnis in
Idlib province. The warplane attacks by Syria and Russia have
escalated sharply in the past couple of weeks, and Syria's ground
forces are now in the fight.

In a speech on Sunday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said
that 80,000 refugees are headed for Syria's border, and that this
number is expected to increase substantially.

Turkey already hosts 3.7 million Syrian refugees. Erdogan on
Sunday said that Turkey cannot handle a "new refugee wave" from
Syria, and that the new influx will be felt by Greece and
"will be felt by all European countries."

In his speech, Erdogan said that Turkey was the most generous country
in the world in providing humanitarian aid and hosting the
oppressed. He pointed out that rich countries had promised financial
aid in the past, but have not met these commitments.

The following excerpts are from a machine translation of his
speech, which is in Turkish:

Quote: "We are looking at the action rather than the
promise. ...

It is clear that there is no solution to the problems of refugees
with symbolic sums. As a country that has suffered a lot of words
that have not been fulfilled before, we are looking at the action
rather than the promise. We will follow the decisions taken in the
next stage and will endeavor to implement them. In particular, we
will continue to tell Western rich countries that the sea is now
over and that it is no longer possible for them to escape the
refugee problem. ...

Somebody is doing just words. ...

Our brother Idlib on the fleeing 80 thousand from the bombardment
began to migrate towards the borders of our country. If Idlib
people for atrocities will increase this number even if it does
not come to an end, in this case Turkey will not bear alone the
migration burden. negative repercussions of the raid will our
exposure, especially Greece will be a subject it will also feel
all European countries."

---- Sources:

-- Erdogan says Turkey cannot handle new migrant wave from Syria,
warns Europe
https://www.france24.com/en/20191222-erd...rns-europe
(France24/Reuters, 22-Dec-2019)

-- Syria war: Turkey can't handle new 'refugee wave', says Erdogan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50886120
(BBC, 22-Dec-2019)

-- President Erdogan: More than 80 thousand of our Idlib brothers
started to migrate towards the border of our country
https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/cumhurb...di/1681124
https://translate.google.com/translate?s...%2F1681124
(Andadolu, Ankara, 22-Dec-2019)

Related Article:

** 22-Dec-19 World View -- Syria, Russia veto humanitarian aid to Idlib as civilian massacre escalates
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191222

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-24-2019, 09:03 PM

** 24-Dec-2019 World View: Gen-X and Boeing

Higgenbotham Wrote:> Nowadays, large profit seeking enterprises in the US get their
> profits from government corruption and largesse, not through
> innovation and efficiency. Boeing is a prime example, but
> certainly not the only one. Muilenberg at Boeing obviously thought
> he was clever and efficient by hiring Indian programmers at $9 per
> hour. Aunt Jemima could have done a better job than Muilenberg.
> That's essentially the same level of thinking and ability that
> exists in government and the results are the same - deficits in
> government budgets or in the case of corporations, losses unless
> the losses are papered over with government funding, favors,
> fraud, false accounting, and government regulatory agencies not
> doing their jobs.

> Oct. 29, 2018: Lion Air flight 610, a Boeing 737 Max 8, plunges
> into the Java Sea, killing all 189 on board. March 10, 2018:
> Ethiopian Airlines flight 302, a Boeing 737 Max 8, crashes after
> takeoff from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, killing all 157 people aboard.

> It took the board of Boeing until yesterday to figure out that
> they needed to fire Muilenberg. There's probably a fundamental
> reason for this. They don't have anybody better to replace him
> with and they don't know how to hire a good replacement
> anyway. They are likely the same idiots who put Muilenberg in
> there to begin with.

We live in a world where stupidity is glorified. The de facto
leader of the Democratic party is a young girl whose initials are AOC.
AOC is one of the stupidest people on the scene today. It's amazing
how every day she says something incredibly ignorant about economics
or the world. It's like every day she has to struggle to find a way
to be stupider than the day before, to prove to her acolytes that
she's still stupid enough to be worshipped, and not intelligent enough
to be hated. We know that SAT scores have been falling sharply for
decades, and that colleges no longer teach anything but women's
studies and sociology, and we can see the results in the stupidity of
AOC. The only people who are stupider than she is are the people who
follow her.

The same kind of thing is true in other countries, and is probably
true in China as well. It's no wonder that the world is headed for
World War III, in view of the stupidity of AOC and the Democrats who
worship at her feet.

Boomers live in a world where they are loathed and are useless except
to be humiliated and defrauded by these people. And if the Boomers
tolerate that, they're still headed for a world of World War III. For
any Boomer thinking of exiting, I recommend the Peaceful Pill Handbook
by Philip Nitschke <https://www.peacefulpillhandbook.com/> . There's
nothing to be gained by sticking around. Fortunately for all of us,
Trump is sticking around and preparing the country for the war with
China, despite AOC/Pelosi's crapfest.

Applying this reality to Boeing, I think it's possible that David
Calhoun will do better than Muilenberg. The way the generational
cycle works during the Crisis era is that the leaders are young,
stupid people like AOC, but every time there's a crisis, they learn
from it. It's like they're starting from a blank slate about how the
world works all over again. By the time the generational crisis war
ends, they've learned anew how the world works, and they've magically
turned into the generation in the same template as the Silents that
AOC and her acolytes loathe.

So that applies to Boeing. It's no longer just a few stupid Gen-Xers
making decisions at Boeing. Today, they have to answer to the FAA and
to regulators around the world. This is a completely different
situation for Boeing, and I expect the new management to do better.

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-24-2019, 09:05 PM

[Image: 5e69ce4dca7206980c19fae5b9663854.gif]

An ironic Merry Christmas to all!

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-25-2019, 11:42 PM

*** 26-Dec-19 World View -- Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Turkey's Erdogan threatens Greece and Europe with Idlib refugees
Libya's Tripoli government asks Turkey for ground troops
Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens eastern Mediterranean peace
Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan threatens Greece and Europe with Idlib refugees
****

[Image: g191225b.jpg]

Over 120,000 civilians are fleeing their homes in Idlib and heading for Turkey's border (Sky News)

As Syria's sociopathic monster president Bashar al-Assad, backed by
Russia, continues to escalate his assault on the 3.5 million Arab
Sunnis in Idlib province, including about 1.5 million children. Among
those 3.5 million people, there are some 70,000 anti-Assad rebels.

According to some reports, Assad's strategy is to attack markets,
residential neighborhoods, schools and hospitals in order to kill as
many women and children as possible, and force the rest to flee
towards the border with Turkey.

According to reports, some 120,000 civilians have abandoned their
homes and are fleeing north towards the border with Turkey. Then,
according to these reports, al-Assad's ground forces can move into the
villages that have been deserted by these civilians and supposedly the
only ones left are that men who are fighting against al-Assad.

In a speech on Sunday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said
Turkey is already hosting 3.7 million Syrian refugees. For the past
three years, Turkey has had an agreement Greece and the European Union
to block Syrian refugees from leaving Turkey. Turkey has mostly kept
to that agreement, while the EU has reneged on most of the commitments
it made.

Erdogan on Sunday said that Turkey cannot handle a "new refugee wave"
from Syria, and that the new influx will be felt by Greece and "will
be felt by all European countries." Most Syrian refugees want to go
to Europe anyway, and the implementation is that Turkey will no longer
try to prevent them from doing so.

In the past, Russia and Turkey have agreed that Idlib will be a
de-escalation zone, or a ceasefire zone. All those agreements about
ceasefire zones were never more than covers for further further
assaults by Syria and Russia. But now Assad has reached the Idlib
deescalation zone, so Russia's support for Assad makes Russia Turkey's
enemy.

Russian officials are claiming that they are working for peace in
Idlib, but Russian officials never tell the truth except by accident.
So far, it's impossible to determine what Russia's plans are in Idlib,
whether to help Assad or to stop al-Assad. We'll probably know within
the next few months, but al-Assad has always made it clear that he
plans to take control of Idlib and exterminate the 3.5 million Arab
Sunni civilians living there, so I would consider it unlikely that
Russia will stop al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing.

****
**** Libya's Tripoli government asks Turkey for ground troops
****

As we reported last week, the war in Libya is also escalating. ( "21-Dec-19 World View -- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey"
)

Turkey had promised weapons and military advisers to the government,
but during the last few days, the Tripoli government has made a
request for ground troops from Turkey.

There are two governments in Libya. The internationally recognized
Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime
Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, and the renegade Tobruk-based Libyan
National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar.

Haftar has been trying for three years lead his Libyan National Army
to defeat the Tripoli government, with little success. During the
last few months, Russia's president Vladimir Putin has made his
private army, the Wagner PMC Mercenary Group, available to Haftar, and
now they are leading the military effort to defeat Tripoli.

And so, as in Idlib, Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the
battle, and, as in Idlib, Russian officials are claiming that they're
negotiating for peace.

As I wrote in 2015, Turkey and Russia have been bitter enemies for
centuries, and have fought numerous generational crisis wars. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
.)

Any alliance made between the two countries today could only be a
temporary marriage of convenience. Turkey is so thoroughly isolated
in the region that it needs support from Russia. Russia is totally
duplicitous and appears to be playing all sides to see which one wins.

****
**** Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens eastern Mediterranean peace
****

As we reported in last week's article,
there was a second agreement signed by Libya and Turkey on
the same day as the military agreement: A maritime agreement that
claims a shared exclusive economic zone (EEZ) consisting of a 200-mile
wide strip that splits much of the eastern Mediterrean between them.

The claimed region is rich in oil and gas, and makes the Libya-Turkey
agreements much more important than Turkey merely helping out a friend
in Libya. If the maritime agreement could be upheld, it would mean a
great deal of energy money pouring into Turkey's coffers.

The agreement is almost certainly illegal, as the claimed region
overlaps regions historically belonging to Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon,
Egypt and Israel. Furthermore, it would block a planned Eastern
Mediterranean Gas Forum agreement signed by Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, and
Greece earlier this year, along with a planned pipeline that would
carry natural gas to Greece and Italy.

****
**** Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean
****

Putting all this together, you have:

An escalating situation in Idlib, Syria, which may result in
hundreds of thousands of new Syrian refugees entering Turkey, and
moving on to Europe.
A fraught relationship between Turkey and Libya, with the two
countries on opposite sides of the wars in Idlib and Libya.
New economic tensions in an already very fraught relationship
between Turkey versus Cyprus and Greece.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these are additional
tensions that keep surging in this generational Crisis era, adding to
numerous tensions elsewhere, including Hong Kong, the South China Sea,
Kashmir, India, Pakistan, and South America.

In the 1990s, when the Silent generation was running the world, a
small clash would almost always be quickly settled. Today, with the
Gen-Xers running the world, a small clash could escalate into a larger
war. With all these tensions and clashes occurring around the world,
at some point one of them will escalate.

Sources:

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad,
Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon, Israel,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, China,
Libya, Tripoli, Misurata, Sirte,
Fayez al-Sarraj,
General Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, Benghazi, Ajdabiya,
Libyan National Army, LNA, Russia, Wagner Group PMC

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

**John J. Xenakis** · (This post was last modified: 12-26-2019, 10:28 PM by John J. Xenakis.)

** 26-Dec-2019 World View: Holocaust - Never again

Trevor Wrote:> I expect future generations will laugh at our stupidity: "Oh, my
> God, how could you not have seen China was going to attack us? It
> was right in front of your face!" If I make it through, I'll be
> quite willing to answer.

> It never ceases to amaze me the kind of following AOC has. She's
> younger than I am and a freshmen Congresswoman who somehow managed
> to obtain great influence in the party. Sometimes I feel like the
> public is aware something terrible is over the horizon, even if we
> don't recognize it on a conscious level. Climate change is easy
> because you can amplify your fear with self-righteousness and
> denounce anyone who dares to disagree with you.

> Might sound a bit too cynical, but "never again" never meant a
> damn thing, today or in the past. Atrocities and genocides abound
> throughout the world, with justice or even remembrance of them
> elusive.

That's not cynical at all. That's reality. There are several
Holocausts going on today, and nobody cares. Actually, nobody cared
about the Nazi-Jew Holocaust while it was going on. To care about a
Holocaust while it's actually going on is too politically painful,
because the politicians, the trolls, the defenders, the acolytes, the
deniers, the cheerleaders, the propagandists, and the collaborators
all benefit from the Holocaust, and will protect it. It's only after
it's over that nobody stands to benefit, and then the wise men can
stand up and say, "Never Again!"

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-26-2019, 04:56 PM

** 26-Dec-2019 World View: Semi-free countries

Guest Wrote:> Merry Christmas, John. Thank you for your integrity and insightful
> analysis.

> A guest from Asia from a semi-free country

Thanks for the compliment.

There are a number of prominent Asian countries -- China, Cambodia,
Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, Taiwan, North Korea, South Korea,
and many, many others.

Without revealing what country you're from, how would you rate these
countries as being free, semi-free, or not-free?

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-26-2019, 04:57 PM

** 26-Dec-2019 World View: The Art of the Deal

Guest Wrote:> Do you think Trump is pro-Putin? If so, is it solely because of
> his knowledge of Generational Dynamics? Putin is just a common
> thief and 3rd rate gangster. Putin's hypocrisy and duplicity is
> well known to the West; how can Trump read intelligence reports
> and not see this?

That question doesn't even make sense. What does pro-Putin even mean?
What does anti-Putin mean?

If you're anti-Putin, does that mean you have to declare war on Russia?
Does it mean you have to cut diplomatic relations?

Trump is not pro-Putin, is not pro-Xi, is not pro-Kim. He has a
relationship with all these dictators in order to get the best deal
for the United States. The "Art of the Deal" requires that, in order
to get the best deal for yourself, you have to respect the position
and needs of the person you're negotiating with, and that's what Trump
is doing.

pbrower2a · 12-26-2019, 07:34 PM

(12-26-2019, 04:55 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 26-Dec-2019 World View: Holocaust - Never again

Trevor Wrote:> I expect future generations will laugh at our stupidity: "Oh, my
> God, how could you not have seen China was going to attack us? It
> was right in front of your face!" If I make it through, I'll be
> quite willing to answer.

> It never ceases to amaze me the kind of following AOC has. She's
> younger than I am and a freshmen Congresswoman who somehow managed
> to obtain great influence in the party. Sometimes I feel like the
> public is aware something terrible is over the horizon, even if we
> don't recognize it on a conscious level. Climate change is easy
> because you can amplify your fear with self-righteousness and
> denounce anyone who dares to disagree with you.

> Might sound a bit too cynical, but "never again" never meant a
> damn thing, today or in the past. Atrocities and genocides abound
> throughout the world, with justice or even remembrance of them
> elusive.

That's not cynical at all. That's reality. There are several
Holocausts going on today, and nobody cares. Actually, nobody cared
about the Nazi-Jew Holocaust while it was going on. To care about a
Holocaust while it's actually going on is too politically painful,
because the politicians, the trolls, the defenders, the acolytes, the
deniers, the cheerleaders and the collaborators all benefit from the
Holocaust, and will protect it. It's only after it's over that nobody
stands to benefit, and then the wise men can say, "Never Again!"

The Germans knew that Hitler was treating the Jews disgracefully -- but not that disgracefully. Hitler made sure not to kill Jews in Germany or in countries in which Germans were likely to be tourists. To that end the Nazis did mass killings of Jews in places of mass Jewish population in what had been the Soviet Union under its borders of January 1, 1941, only to start deporting Jews to murder camps in Poland. The Nazis made the Holocaust one of the tightest-controlled of state secrets.

Josef Goebbels, who certainly knew what was going on, corrected himself in one speech as he started to use the German word Vernichtung (annihilation) of what was to happen to the Jews... replacing it with the less ominous, if not by much, Ausrottung (uprooting). Germans were led to believe that Hitler was 'only' removing the Jews from Germany to 'the East', which included places that before the War had huge numbers of Jews.

So why didn't the Allies complain? Because such would have fit Nazi propaganda -- that the war was on behalf of the Jews, who according to Nazi propaganda, conspired against the German State and people. Hitler even claimed that FDR and Churchill were Jews. Besides, Hitler would have used the Jews as hostages to save his vile hide in the event of military reverses. (OK, Hitler never offered to stop the Holocaust to get favorable terms). Winning the war, the Allies thought, would solve all problems, including Nazi atrocities.

From an early time Churchill was contemplating severe punishment of the Nazis for their many crimes, starting with the slaughter of the Polish economic, political, cultural, and technical elites -- before Hitler even started killing Jews en masse. Hitler had to annihilate the Polish elite to make Poland a safe haven for the Holocaust.

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-26-2019, 10:24 PM

** 26-Dec-2019 World View: Never Again!

(12-26-2019, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > The Germans knew that Hitler was treating the Jews disgracefully
> -- but not that disgracefully. Hitler made sure not to kill
> Jews in Germany or in countries in which Germans were likely to be
> tourists. To that end the Nazis did mass killings of Jews in
> places of mass Jewish population in what had been the Soviet Union
> under its borders of January 1, 1941, only to start deporting Jews
> to murder camps in Poland. The Nazis made the Holocaust one of the
> tightest-controlled of state secrets.

> Josef Goebbels, who certainly knew what was going on, corrected
> himself in one speech as he started to use the German word
> Vernichtung (annihilation) of what was to happen to the
> Jews... replacing it with the less ominous, if not by much,
> Ausrottung (uprooting). Germans were led to believe that
> Hitler was 'only' removing the Jews from Germany to 'the East',
> which included places that before the War had huge numbers of
> Jews.

> So why didn't the Allies complain? Because such would have fit
> Nazi propaganda -- that the war was on behalf of the Jews, who
> according to Nazi propaganda, conspired against the German State
> and people. Hitler even claimed that FDR and Churchill were Jews.
> Besides, Hitler would have used the Jews as hostages to save his
> vile hide in the event of military reverses. (OK, Hitler never
> offered to stop the Holocaust to get favorable terms). Winning the
> war, the Allies thought, would solve all problems, including Nazi
> atrocities.

> From an early time Churchill was contemplating severe punishment
> of the Nazis for their many crimes, starting with the slaughter of
> the Polish economic, political, cultural, and technical elites --
> before Hitler even started killing Jews en masse. Hitler
> had to annihilate the Polish elite to make Poland a safe haven for
> the Holocaust.

Thanks for that analysis, which details why the Nazi Holocaust was not
stopped. It's consistent with the point I was making that nobody
cares about a genocide while it's in progress, until it's over, and
then the politicians say, "Never Again!"

Today the excuses are, "someone killed someone, so they're all
terrorists," or "there is no evidence whatsoever of chemical weapons,"
or "the United States did it to embarass us," or "they burned down
their own villages and blamed it on us," or "it's an internal matter."
In the end, to war criminals, people are no different from cockroaches
to be exterminated.

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-28-2019, 11:03 PM

*** 29-Dec-19 World View -- Turkey to send Syrian anti-Assad rebels to Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Turkey to send Syrian anti-Assad rebels to Libya
The genocide and ethnic cleansing continue in Idlib, Syria

****
**** Turkey to send Syrian anti-Assad rebels to Libya
****

[Image: g191228b.jpg]

Fighters in Hafter's Libyan National Army (LNA) on December 18 (AFP)

As we've been reporting several times this month, the war in Libya has
been heating up. There are two governments in Libya. The western
government of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), led by
General Khalifa Haftar, has been moving east and attacking the
internationally recognized Tripoli-based Government of National Accord
(GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj.

The war is increasingly a proxy war. Haftar's LNA is backed with
weapons and warplanes by Egypt and United Arab Emirates, while Qatar
has been supplying weapons to the GNA. In recent months, Haftar's LNA
is being helped by troops from the Wagner PMC Mercenary Group, the
private army of Russia's president Vladimir Putin.

Turkey has joined Qatar on the side of the Tripoli-based GNA, and last
month Turkey and Libya signed an agreement whereby Turkey would supply
weapons to the GNA and also, if asked, would supply ground troops to
the GNA.

Well, GNA prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj has formally asked Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to send ground troops.

Erdogan really doesn't want to send Turkish troops to Libya, since
that would be unpopular among the Turkish people, but he promised so
he has to. So he's apparently found the ideal solution.

Erdogan has been working with anti-Assad rebel groups in northern
Syria, so he's going to ask some of those rebels to go to Tripoli to
fight against Haftar in the name of Turkey. Apparently the incentive
is that each of the rebels will receive $300 upon signing the contract
in Syria, and will receive $2,000 per month in Libya.

So that should make it truly a proxy war. It won't be Libyans
fighting Libyans. It will be Syria's anti-Assad rebels, provided by
Erdogan, fighting against Russia's Wagner mercenaries, provided by
Putin.

Whether either side in this proxy battle is competent enough to win
remains to be seen. However, the potential escalation in fighting is
raising concerns. In Italy, which was Libya's colonial power once
upon a time, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is strongly opposing
Turkey's intervention and is calling for an internationally supervised
no-fly zone in Libya. "A no-fly zone too can be an instrument for
achieving a goal: the immediate cessation of hostilities."

I guess that's true, but let's recall that in 2011 the Libyan war took
hold when the Arab League called for an internationally supervised
no-fly zone in Libya. History may repeat itself.

****
**** The genocide and ethnic cleansing continue in Idlib, Syria
****

The massacre of innocent women and children by Syrian and Russian
warplanes, including some reports of chemical weapons, along with
Syrian ground troops, is continuing in full force.

In just the last month, the number of people who have been forced from
their home has reached a quarter million. Most are headed north,
wanting to cross the border into Turkey, and from there travel into
Europe. So far, Turkey has kept the border closed. But the assault
on Idlib, with 3.5 million people, shows no sign of slowing, and
Turkey may not be able to keep the border closed when hundreds of
thousands more try to push through.

Here's a statement by Raed Al Saleh, head of the White Helmet
humanitarian group:

<QUOTE>"It seems that 2019 was the year the international
community and the UN completely abandoned Syria and politicians
have even run out of words of condemnation.

My biggest fear as the year comes to a close is for the attacks to
intensify further, causing new waves of displacement because there
is nowhere left for people to run to. Every olive tree has become
a tent and every camp has exceeded its capacity ten times over.

I still cannot understand how the world’s most powerful nations
can meet those horrors with silence and inaction."<END QUOTE>

That statement is actually funny. He's complaining because almost
nobody cares about the Holocaust going on in Idlib. Actually, there
are three Holocausts going on today that almost nobody cares about,
all targeting Sunni Muslims: China's genocide, ethnic cleansing, and
enslavement of over a million Sunni Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs in East
Turkestan (Xinjiang Province), Buddhist Myanmar's (Burma's) genocide
and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslim ethnic Rohingyas, and Bashar
al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing of his Sunni Muslim political
opponents in Syria.

There are several Holocausts going on today, and nobody cares.
Actually, nobody cared about the Nazi-Jew Holocaust while it was going
on. To care about a Holocaust while it's actually going on is too
politically painful, because the politicians, the trolls, the
defenders, the acolytes, the deniers, the cheerleaders, the
propagandists, and the collaborators all benefit from the Holocaust,
the genocide, the slaughter, and will protect it. It's only after
it's over that nobody stands to benefit, and then the wise men can
stand up and say, "Never Again!"

So Raed Al Saleh should stop whining just accept the fact that there's
going to be a bloody massacre of almost unimaginable proportions in
Idlib. After it ends, he can go on TV and join the chorus saying
"Never Again!"

Sources:

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran,
Kataib Hezbollah, KH, Mohammed Mohieh, Hezbollah Brigades - Iraq,
Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Mike Pompeo, Adel Abdul Mahdi, Russia, China,
Iran/Iraq war, Iranian Hostage Crisis,
Truman Doctrine

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-31-2019, 10:04 AM

** 31-Dec-2019 World View: Iran-backed protesters in Iraq attack American embassy

[Image: 2ea84c97-8f48-4c56-a24d-1459ca5e1c80.jpg]

Tuesday's attack on American embassy in Baghdad by Iran-backed
protesters

Right now, while you're totally obsessed with really important news
like the latest Pelosi quote, there's a major attack going on by
Iran-backed protesters in Baghdad, Iraq, attacking the American
embassy.

Apparently the embassy has not yet been evacuated, although the
American ambassador to Iraq is not present.

As I wrote in today's article, this kind of thing is fully in Iran's
playbook, trying to repeat the success of the 1979 civil war in
uniting Iranians behind the clerics by attacking the American embassy
in Tehran, causing the "Iranian Hostage Crisis."

However, this will fail for the reasons that I've explained in many
articles -- what works in a generational Crisis era (1979) fails in a
generation Awakening or Unraveling era (today).

The Iraqi armed forces are supposed to be protecting the American
embassy. Events are developing.

---- Sources:

-- Protesters storm US embassy compound in Baghdad
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/i...26066.html
(Al Jazeera, 31-Dec-2019)

-- Protesters attack US embassy in Baghdad after airstrikes
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/31/middleeas...index.html
(CNN, 31-Dec-2019)

Related Article:

** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191231

**Ragnarök_62** · 12-31-2019, 03:03 PM

(12-31-2019, 10:04 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 31-Dec-2019 World View: Iran-backed protesters in Iraq attack American embassy

Tuesday's attack on American embassy in Baghdad by Iran-backedprotesters

Right now, while you're totally obsessed with really important news
like the latest Pelosi quote, there's a major attack going on by
Iran-backed protesters in Baghdad, Iraq, attacking the American
embassy.

Apparently the embassy has not yet been evacuated, although the
American ambassador to Iraq is not present.

As I wrote in today's article, this kind of thing is fully in Iran's
playbook, trying to repeat the success of the 1979 civil war in
uniting Iranians behind the clerics by attacking the American embassy
in Tehran, causing the "Iranian Hostage Crisis."

However, this will fail for the reasons that I've explained in many
articles -- what works in a generational Crisis era (1979) fails in a
generation Awakening or Unraveling era (today).

The Iraqi armed forces are supposed to be protecting the American
embassy. Events are developing.

---- Sources:

-- Protesters storm US embassy compound in Baghdad
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/i...26066.html
(Al Jazeera, 31-Dec-2019)

-- Protesters attack US embassy in Baghdad after airstrikes
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/31/middleeas...index.html
(CNN, 31-Dec-2019)

Related Article:

** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e191231

From the post above this one...

** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury

Uh, sounds like some sort of Shiite payback to me. Btw, I think the 1979 hostage situation was due to the US./UK coup in 1953. The US should just fucking leave the Mideast. We've trashed the place enough already and I'd reckon lots of folks there just totally hate us.

**John J. Xenakis** · 12-31-2019, 11:38 PM

*** 1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters
Mainstream media reactions
The link to the 1979 attack on US embassy in Tehran

****
**** US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters
****

[Image: g191231b.jpg]

Three of the five militia leaders who attended the protest at the U.S. Embassy, from left to right: Hadi Al-Amiri, Qais al-Khazali, and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (Memri)

Happy New Year everyone!

A detachment of 100 Marines are deploying from Kuwait to Iraq to
reinforce security at the US Embassy in Baghdad. Hundreds more
American soldiers are planned for deployment. The Baghdad embassy is
the largest US embassy in the world.

On Tuesday, hundreds of pro-Iranian Iraqis, led by Qais al-Khazali,
stormed the embassy. There was some property destruction, and some
fires were set, but the embassy was not evacuated.

The US ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller, was away on a trip, but
said that he is immediately returning to the embassy. According to
one analyst, Behnam Ben Taleblu, "It's important for him to come back
because it would be a show of force that America is not going to
flinch in the face of this pressure."

The attack on the US embassy was led by Qais al-Khazali, founder of
the Iran-backed Shia terrorist group Asaib Ahl al Haq militia,
responsible for hostage-taking and the killing of U.S. soldiers.
However, al-Khazali's terrorists have also won seats in Iraq's
parliament, under pressure from Iran.

The attack was a response to US airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah
terrorists that have been attacking American bases with artillery, and
on Friday killed an American contractor. (See yesterday's article,
"31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury"
)

According to al-Khazali: "Americans are unwanted in Iraq. They are a
source of evil, and we want them to leave."

For months, there have been massive anti-Iran protests in Iraq,
threatening to completely distabilize the Iraqi government which is
mostly dominated by Iran. Leaders of these protests on Tuesday made
it clear that they do not agree with al-Khazali, and that their
protests had absolutely nothing to do with and had no relation to the
attacks on the US Embassy.

****
**** Mainstream media reactions
****

As usual, reporters with the mainstream media stumbled over themselves
in a rush to make one idiotic statement after another.

The NY Times was heavily criticized after it called the US embassy
attackers "mourners" in an idiotic tweet: "Hundreds of Iraqi mourners
tried to storm the United States Embassy in Baghdad, shouting 'Down,
down USA!,' in response to deadly American airstrikes this week that
killed 25 fighters."

Chris Murphy is a 46-year-old Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs
Committee. Two months ago I heard him on giving a speech on
al-Jazeera that was so idiotic that I wrote an article on the
Generational Dynamics forum 23-Oct-2019 World View: The stupidest person in Congress - Chris Murphy. The occasion was a speech where Murphy blamed the deep
historic split in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between Saudi
Arabia and Qatar on Donald Trump. The concept is so idiotic that
al-Jazeera just played the sound byte without saying a word about it.

Now Chris Murphy is blaming the attack on the US embassy in Tehran on
Donald Trump: "Trump has rendered America impotent in the Middle
East. No one fears us, no one listens to us."

It's not surprising that a NY Times reporter would say something so
dumb as to call the Shia terrorists "mourners." Most of these
reporters are kids out of college where they majored in women's
studies or sociology, following years of declining SAT scores,
and most of them probably couldn't find Iraq on a map.

But I'm singling Chris Murphy out because he says unbelievably stupid
things even though he's been on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee
for six years, and should know better. He's supposed to be an expert.
He's supposed to be making American foreign policy. But he's an
idiot. This goes we'll beyond ignorance into sheer stupidity.

In 2006, the Congressional Quarterly and the London Times conducted a
survey of Mideast experts (Democrats and Republicans), and found that
they couldn't answer simple questions like whether al-Qaeda was a
Sunni or Shia organization. (As I recall, most thought they were
Shia.) You know, I really do despair that the country is being run by
total idiots. And the "experts" in China are also idiots. But this
is why we're headed for World War III.

There's a larger picture here. There are a lot of people, Republicans
and Democrats, like Murphy, who believe that if any event occurs
anywhere in the world, then it occurred because either the President
of the United States did something or didn't do something.

What Generational Dynamics says, and what has been proven over and
over again, is that major events in the world have absolutely nothing
to do with the US president except as a target of convenient political
blame.

There are deep-seated hatreds in the Mideast going back millennia, and
they keep bubbling to the surface every few decades in the form of a
war. In particular, despite what Murphy says, the split in the GCC
had nothing to do with the president, and the attack on the embassy is
based on Iran-Iraq animosity unrelated to America, and closely related
to the extremely bloody and vicious Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.

****
**** The link to the 1979 attack on US embassy in Tehran
****

In yesterday's article, I wrote that it seemed likely that the attacks
by Kataib Hezbollah on American bases were done purposely to bait the
United States, and force a response. Since the US has no choice but
to respond to a military attack on its base, especially when an
American is killed, the attack achieved that purpose.

Despite all the mainstream media nonsense, Iran is deeply in trouble.
In recent months, there have been thousands of anti-government
protesters in Iran, and thousands of anti-Iran protesters in Iraq.
This is increasingly a threat to Iran's control of Iraq's government,
and even a threat to the Islamic regime inside Iran itself.

As I've said many times over the years, the standard playbook in Iran
is to repeat the Iranian Hostage Crisis that took place in the context
of Iran's civil war in 1979. At that time, Iranian terrorists stormed
the American embassy in Tehran, making the terrorist leadership of
Iran into international heroes.

The people in the leadership in 1979 were young and fun-loving,
willing to slit somebody's throat on a bet. Today those leaders are
very old geezers, still willing to split anyone's throat, but now
desperate to hold onto power. And like a person who tries to relive
the most exciting erotic experience of his childhood, the old geezers
in Iran are trying to trying to relive their fun-loving attack on the
US embassy in Tehran in 1979.

One of the terrorist leaders of Tuesday's attack, Abu Alaa Al-Walai,
leader of Kata'ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada, tweeted the following:

<QUOTE>"The popular mobilization forces, more accurately the
mobilized people, surrounded today the embassy of evil in Baghdad
and will soon surround the camps and headquarters of the
U.S. killers that are spread all over the Iraqi lands. ...

[The demonstrators will go further to surround] the embassies of
[America's] tails and submissive countries, [including Arabia, the
UAE, and Bahrain].

The siege of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran back in 1979 extends to
today's siege of the embassy in Baghdad, 2019. It summarizes the
history: Allah will bring victory to those who support
Him."<END QUOTE>

Notice two things about this statement. The obvious one is linking
Tuesday's embassy attack to the 1979 embassy attack.

But also notice the reference to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. These are the members of the GCC opposing
Qatar, and they're also heavily involved in opposing the
Iran-supported Houthis in the Yemen War. So Tuesday's attack on the
US embassy touches on many deep divisions among the Mideast countries.

So now, based on multiple analyst descriptions, we can put together a
more complete narrative of Tuesday's attack on the US embassy:

Iran is in deep trouble because of massive anti-government
protests in Iran, and anti-Iran protests in Iraq.
In order to control the public narrative, Iran's Iran
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ordered Kataib Hezbollah (KH) to
attack American bases, which it has done dozens or hundreds of times
in the last few months.
Finally KH struck gold -- and killed an American on Friday,
forcing an American response.
American airstrikes killed 27 KH terrorists, along with weapons
stores.
Iran ordered Qais al-Khazali to mobilize his terrorists and attack
the US embassy in Baghdad.
The plan was successful to this extent: The media is now talking
about the embassy attack, rather than the massive anti-Iran
protests.

Iran and Iraq are still in a generational Awakening era, and the most
likely scenario now is that these anti-embassy attacks will fizzle
fairly quickly.

Once again, Happy New Year everyone! However, the decade doesn't
begin until 1/1/2021, so don't celebrate that yet.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

Sources:

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran,
Hadi Al-Amiri, Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis
Qais al-Khazali, Asaib Ahl al Haq,
Kataib Hezbollah, KH, Mohammed Mohieh, Hezbollah Brigades - Iraq,
Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Iran/Iraq war, Iranian Hostage Crisis,
Matthew Tueller, Behnam Ben Taleblu, Chris Murphy,
Abu Alaa Al-Walai, Kata'ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Bahrain

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**John J. Xenakis** · 01-01-2020, 10:44 AM

** 01-Jan-2020 World View: America's Manifest Destiny

(12-31-2019, 03:03 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > From the post above this one...

> ** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib
> Hezbollah provoke international fury

> Uh, sounds like some sort of Shiite payback to me. Btw, I think
> the 1979 hostage situation was due to the US./UK coup in 1953.
> The US should just fucking leave the Mideast. We've trashed the
> place enough already and I'd reckon lots of folks there just
> totally hate us.

As I described in my book on Iran, Iran's 1979 civil war was triggered
generationally by the 1890 Tobacco Revolt, the 1905-09 Constitutional
Revolution, and the 1963 White Revolution in which Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini was exiled. During all this time, the UK, Russia and later
America were bogeymen that various Iranian politicians blamed for
their own failures. If the 1953 CIA coup played any part in that, it
was a small part of a large tableau.

It's laughable that you blame the US for trashing the Mideast. As I
showed in my book on Iran, the Mideast has been trashing itself, over
and over and over, for millennia.

One thing I've discovered in 15+ years of developing Generational
Dynamics is that there are very few people in the world who hate us --
maybe some Palestinian groups, maybe some African black liberation
groups, maybe some anti-American hate politicians within the
Democratic party, maybe a couple of other groups -- despite the "ugly
American" stuff you read in American media. Most people in the world
admire America and Americans, and many would love to come to America
and become Americans themselves. Most of the vitriolic criticism of
America, and lately of Trump, is from politicians who are using it for
their own domestic political goals. It's always easy to blame America
for any problem in the world, when a politician doesn't want to admit
his own stupidity.

As for withdrawing from the Mideast, or from the world, I do get
asked this question reasonably frequently, and in fact was just
asked a similar question in the Generational Dynamics forum.

There are practical reasons why this is impossible. One is that
Israel is an important ally. So is Egypt. And we're committed to
providing security to Saudi Arabia so that the Saudis can provide the
world with oil. Those commitments cannot simply be abandoned.

And the news today is that Trump is sending 700 more troops into Iraq
to protect the American embassy. So withdrawing from the Mideast is
little more than a fantasy.

But it's more than that. As I've written in the past, there are a lot
of people, in America and in the world, who believe in American
Exceptionalism, and who truly believe that America has a moral
obligation, or even a Christian obligation, or even an obligation
dictated by God, to fulfill American's Manifest Destiny, and to do the
right thing, and they would not consider withdrawing from the Mideast
or the world as the way to do the right thing.

In fact, you can see this dynamic in the Mideast today. Trump said he
wants to withdraw troops from the Mideast and he's gotten howls of
outrage and criticism from pretty much everyone -- Democrats,
Republicans, liberals, conservatives. He's still being criticized
constantly for reducing the number of troops in Syria after ISIS was
defeated. There are many people, like yourself, who would like to see
America withdraw from the Mideast and just let them "trash" each other
without American involvement, but withdrawing from the Mideast is just
impossible, as it would be inconsistent with America's Manifest Destiny.

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