Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-11-2020, 08:46 AM)David Horn Wrote: That sounds a lot more like religion than historical analysis.

I have noted that some of the contributors of the T4T site are conservative and into violence. This infatuation with violence is one of the things that the theory attracts. If S&H took most of their observations from a violent age, is it surprising that it attracts people with a violent world view?

On the other hand, many of the more progressive contributors are more sensitive to the changes in Information Age has brought. They have noticed that the theory isn’t a good predictor anymore, and have come to doubt the validity of the theory in its entirety.

I see some of the theory as valid still, but it is one of many valid things. Resolving conflicts between theories is a good way of pruning the invalid. A conflict between two theories is a solid clue that at least one of the theories has a problem. I don’t have a pseudo religious belief that any theory can stand forever unchanged, but I will keep what they observed of the old time if it is still repeating in the new. Resolving a conflict is done by comparing with the real world. Which theory if either is the accurate predictor?

[David Horn]

(08-12-2020, 08:54 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-11-2020, 08:46 AM)David Horn Wrote: That sounds a lot more like religion than historical analysis.

I have noted that some of the contributors of the T4T site are conservative and into violence.  This infatuation with violence is one of the things that the theory attracts.  If S&H took most of their observations from a violent age, is it surprising that it attracts people with a violent world view?

On the other hand, many of the more progressive contributors are more sensitive to the changes in Information Age has brought.  They have noticed that the theory isn’t a good predictor anymore, and have come to doubt the validity of the theory in its entirety.

I see some of the theory as valid still, but it is one of many valid things.  Resolving conflicts between theories is a good way of pruning the invalid.  A conflict between two theories is a solid clue that at least one of the theories has a problem.  I don’t have a pseudo religious belief that any theory can stand forever unchanged, but I will keep what they observed of the old time if it is still repeating in the new.  Resolving a conflict is done by comparing with the real world.  Which theory if either is the accurate predictor?

Mostly, I find myself agreeing with the basic structure of turnings and generations, albeit, not on the rigorous timeline used by many.  Where I totally leave the reservation is the issue of predicted outcomes.  Yes, we can predict the strife but how it is resolved is not preordained.  Bad can happen. Now, will it this time?

I doubt the Trump version of libertarian conservatism is viable over the long term, but it might prevail in the short to medium term.  That's enough to create havoc and may lead to chaos we've never seen in this country. I hope not, and believe it unlikely, but it is certainly possible.

[pbrower2a]

(08-11-2020, 09:20 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-11-2020, 04:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Question: how do the rules change when we leave the industrial age?

Hmm.  I covered some of the major points just a few posts up.  Again.

War become not cost effective.  This became more true starting with the common use of the machine gun and especially with the invention of the nuke.  It was actually Keynes that pointed out after World War I, that trying to profit out of war was a bad idea.  The retaliatory terms of that ‘peace’ turned out to make the war be fought again.  Thus, next time around they tried the Marshall Plan.  That worked better.

The old policy was to reconcile with the defeated leadership and punish the common people or at least exploit them. The last time we tried (and usually executed) the gangster leaders of Germany and Japan and treated the people with kindness. It is far easier to occupy a country if your soldiers and administrators (senior officers) need not watch their backs. Maybe we could inculcate some guilt about what the wartime leaders did. That is just as well. 

Quote:But the core was that nuclear war became not cost effective for the elites.  They were in a position to lose much opportunity for profit should a crisis war start.  Thus, they did not support government leaders apt to try to start a crisis war.  The common man had a similar idea.  They did not care to be incinerated either.  Thus, the prospect of maybe becoming involved in a war of annihilation became as traumatizing as living memory of a preceding crisis war.  You thus have a lack of trigger events by major powers that lead to crisis wars.  This was obviously not true in the Industrial Age.  Someone would always think they had a military advantage and start a conflict.  If the culture had to change, it was taken for granted that you would have to fight a crisis war to do it.

Wars used to be waged with the idea of arranging for the defeated country to become a captive market and a supplier of raw materials and labor at sub-market rates good for higher profits in the metropole. But there would still be mineral mines, farm land, and of course toilers. If, of course, the land is full of fallout, then the tea from the plantations is undrinkable; if the people are wiped out, then there is nobody to buy the woolens unsuitable for a tropical climate. Figure that should American leadership imitate Hitler in aggressive cruelty, then those who promoted such cruelty will be on trial. So might be the people most easily seen as culpable for economic exploitation. Tycoons and executives have no desire to be on trial along with people responsible for the concentration camps or the secret police.     

Quote:S&H and Generational Dynamics fails to take this change in the cost effectivity of war into account.

S&H underplay economics for calculation of costs; this said, pathological leaders either fail to assess the costs or grossly miscalculate the results of a war. It took about two and a half years for the Soviet Army to go from sealing off German attackers in Stalingrad to closing in on a Berlin bunker.

Quote:A second difference is that Gandhi and Martin Luther King proved non violence could transform the culture without a crisis war, and that awakenings though protest, non-violence and legislation could transform a culture.  S&H could have seen that.  They lived through the 1960s.  They could have noted the difference between the religious revivals of the Industrial Age and the political protests and response by a progressive government could lead to a transforming awakening turning.  They might have anticipated that the next awakening could be similar, but they didn’t.

Gandhi chose to wait until the British were exhausted from the war to make the definitive demand for Indian independence. MLK well knew how to use television against people who acted without conscience. 

Quote:Another change is the insurgency and proxy war.  In the Industrial Age it was common to win wars with people wearing uniforms, crewing artillery and having front lines.  You get your army into the enemy capitol and you have won.  In places like Vietnam and Iraq, another power would get weapons to angry locals who would make sure foreigners do not profit.  Again, war became less profitable.  Bush 43’s attempt at Neo colonialism failed, as I anticipate future attempts to use military force to make a profit will also fail.  Thus, while man was bred to conflict, where a contest for resources and territory was bred into us during the hunter - gatherer time, man is slowly learning that it is not as easy to profit through conflict as it used to be.  In other words, even the sole superpower has learned not to put a lot of boots on the ground.  Again, a lack of triggers for major powers.

We still have images of bodies stacked like cord-wood and of cities incinerated in incendiary attacks. The victors end up having to rebuild the cities of the defeated, which isn't cheap. With nuclear fallout, stuff laced with cesium-137 and strontium 90 is worse than worthless.   

Quote:Those three are the basic difference.  In general, when you are mixing turnings, ages and civilizations, as a broad rule you should become suspect of inductive proofs of anything when you cross any of the three types of borders.  By suspect, I don’t say anything you thought you learned from the Industrial Age will turn out to be false in the Information Age.  Primarily, it means that a pattern which was observed back then has to be confirmed through observation in the later age, especially if nukes, proxy insurgent wars or computer networks are involved.  What was true in the older time has to be confirmed in the new age.

What changes? In a post-industrial age, it will no longer be easy to make a big profit from meeting a shortage or a new market. Much of what is new in our economy is undercutting (competing where there is technological alternatives, such as perhaps cell phones instead of landlines) or gouging. The idea that someone is more prosperous for paying $4000 a month in 2020 for the same apartment available for $200 a month in 1970 is absurd. OK, it could have had some renovations and upgrades, but the square-footage is the same. 

Then again -- COVID-19 has compelled people to work remotely. But what happens if working remotely means that one can work for a Manhattan employer from home in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania (well outside of the commuter range of NYC)  instead of Paterson, New Jersey? Maybe one can cut one's living costs dramatically!   

Quote:That hits you in the face as soon as you try to combine age and turning theory.  Still, some are trying hard not to see age theory, and run S&H as if it is perfect, like there is no reason to update it.  Many might see the contradictions and abandon S&H entirely.  I would not go that far.  Some of what S&H observed about the old days remains true now.

I sort of have to balance between the two.

Most of us recognize that multiple cycles and trends happen at once. Sarkar has his cycle of a succession of elites (warriors, then intellectuals, then entrepreneurs, then chaos, and then soldiers again). Toynbee has his pattern of the rise and fall of a civilization, with a Universal State eventually taking over a civilization and giving it a new stability through crushing conformity.... but in that conformity appears the crushing of initiative and innovation. Marx has his succession through feudal agrarian societies to capitalism to state-run socialism to communism. 

At most I can synthesize, and I see America losing the characteristics of a pioneer society that made life economically easy for one in which only a select few can achieve anything that pays well (the demands for refinement get more intense, and most people find themselves failing before they get a chance and giving up the garage band for the opportunity to drive a truck or work in a food-processing plant), that scarcity in real estate promotes gouging so that whatever benefits arise from technological wizardry end up in the hands of landlords, that tycoons and executives are as ruthless and insensitive as ever but much more sophisticated in buying and controlling politicians than were their counterparts in the Gilded Age. As always humanistic values easy to see as morally noble run afoul of power and greed. I look at the forty years of politics beginning with the Reagan Revolution that culminated in the idea that many of our economic elites hold, that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it turns, indulges, or enforces a profit. If that makes our current tycoons and executives seem as immoral as slave-owning planters of the Agricultural Age -- then ask yourself what can stop elitews from becoming monstrously cruel.

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-12-2020, 09:24 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: What changes?

The progressive time ended when LBJ bought the black vote and Nixon brought in the racist vote.  There were just more racists and elites than there were workers and minorities.  Republicans became more dominant.  It was close.  There was a see saw as we sought a balance between punishing minorities and giving advantage to workers.

Now in 2020 we have people believing more in the existence of violent racism among the police, and demanding it end to it.  We also have Trump being Trump, and for good reason an at least temporary bunch of blue votes.  The question is if it will be long term.  Has the reduction of the racist vote become permanent?  Will the progressives become dominant again?

Time will tell.  Will putting in the blue agenda allow the blue to keep their temporary advantage?  I would guess yes, but we will see come the mid terms and beyond.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Aug-2020 World View: Prepping

Navigator Wrote:>   Thanks for ideas and support!

>   I believe in being prepared, but I am not an extreme prepper.  I
>   believe that we have to go through quite a daunting sequence of
>   events before things truly fall apart, but even then, there is
>   hope for a better future.

>   We have quite an advanced and interconnected society.  It will
>   take quite some doing to bring it down. But, as John points out,
>   things are in motion.

It would be worthwhile to give a nod to the preppers.  There are a lot
of people who are interested in information of this type.  A related
question that I've been asked frequently is, "Where can I move to where
it's safe?"  There have been various suggested answers over the years.
I personally know (or used to know) several families that moved to
bunkers in the Midwest.

I think that this is a very interesting and valuable list:

Guest Prepper Wrote:>   Hi Navigator!

>   I enjoy your views. You are very much centered like my Marine
>   Vietnam Veteran husband. He is the most honorable man I know.

>   I have been a prepper since I was born. While I do not have the
>   funds to support you right now in your endeavor, I do have a few
>   ideas for you, free of charge.

>   This is the work of a lifetime and I do not want to give away or
>   sell the bulk of it. But if this outline has anything you can use,
>   please do.

>   Folders:
>   1.  Power Outages/Solar Flares/EMP
>   2.  Pandemic/Medical Shortages/Food Shortages/Water Shortages
>   3.  Nuclear War/Invasion/Civil Unrest
>   4.  Financial Crisis
>   5.  Fire
>   6.  Volcano
>   7.  Earthquake/Tsunami
>   8.  Flood
>   9.  Tornado/Hurricane/Sand & Dust Storms
>   10. Blizzards/Ice Storms

>   Having a specific written list of what to do eliminates shock,
>   confusion and disorganization of doing the unnecessary. Each
>   folder has a list of what to do immediately, steps to take to
>   insure continuation, and living in the aftermath. Each folder
>   gives particular instruction for the area where we live. For
>   instance, I would have my family packed up, gassed up and headed
>   for southern Texas in about an hour in the event that Yellowstone
>   erupted. It also has a map with the direct routes and alternate
>   routes highlighted. Although there is little chance for our area
>   being hit by a tsunami, there would be probable consequences of
>   shortages of items that would need to be stocked up on if one hit
>   the east or west coasts. This shopping list would need to be done
>   immediately before the general population realizes there might be
>   shortages. The folders would be easy to combine in the event of
>   several emergencies happening at once. For almost every bug-in
>   situation, there is instruction to fill the 50 gallon water
>   storage containers and turn off the sewer lines. For my family,
>   there is specific who-does-what list of preparations.

>   Sub-Folders:
>   1.  Safety/Weapons
>   2.  Food & Water (This includes how to raise chickens)
>   3.  Medical
>   4.  Weather/Staying Warm or Cooling Off
>   5.  Animal Care
>   6.  Pest Infestation/Wildlife Invasion
>   7.  Garden/Seeds/Food Preservation
>   8.  Psychological Impact/Religious Inspiration
>   9.  Bug-In/Bug-Out
>   10. Community Governance
>   11. Barter Economy
>   12. Energy Production

>   The sub-folders are universal and go with every folder. Each
>   sub-folder has tabbed sections. For instance, the Energy
>   Production has tabbed sections for generator maintenance, how to
>   build a gasifier, etc. Some of the sub-folders are really boxes
>   such as Food & Water filled with survival food cooking recipes and
>   the Medical is filled with alternative medicine, field emergency
>   and first aid books. Every folder and sub-folder tells where to
>   find particular items in the house, such as a drawer full of extra
>   batteries, bug-out bags, important paperwork, even not to forget
>   the Christmas candles and where that box is located, etc.

>   I call all of this my "no internet, no problem" work of art. I
>   hope you find it useful in some way.

"Guest Prepper" seems to be totally obsessed with this subject, but
it's an obsession that may save her family.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Aug-2020 World View: China military attack rhetoric

Jeepdinger Wrote:>   China rhetoric continues to push for military action.  They are
>   just spinning it as preparation for US attack.

>   https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16336...litary-war

>   Question continues to just be, when?

I keep saying that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs are
paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional, and highly delusional,
and this article is a good example.

This is an illustration of how delusional the Chinese are.  These
Chinese "experts" have concluded that Donald Trump is going to launch
a military attack before the November 3 election, to seize the
Scarborough Shoal in the Paracel Island Chain.  So, according to this
theory, then what?  Just sit there holding on to a relatively
worthless island, while the Chinese are either mounting a military
counterattack, or else running around the world criticizing the US?
And why before the Nov 3 election?  Why do they think that a crazy
military action would help Trump get reelected?

As I've described before, the craziness is illustrated by the fact
that China has 21 border disputes currently active, claiming part or
all of 21 regions on their borders with different countries.  It's
insane.  It would be like the US having border disputes with Canada,
Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Anquilla, Aruba, the Bahamas,
and so forth.  That would be insane, but that's how the Chinese think.

I'm spending most of my time now writing a book on Vietnam, like the
books on China and Iran.  Researching Vietnam, you realize how crazy
everyone is in southeast Asia.  Whether it's China, Vietnam, Cambodia,
Laos or Thailand, these people are not capable of governing
themselves.  They're all crazy, and they're all either at war or
preparing for war.  As I've mentioned previously, there are 54 ethnic
groups in Vietnam, and many of them would be only too happy to see
most of the others exterminated, if that were possible.  And over the
centuries, China has repeatedly invaded Vietnam, treating it as a
colony or a vassal.

As far as the South China Sea is concerned, it's clear that if anyone
has claim to it then it's Vietnam, not China.  Vietnam has been
guardian of the South China Sea for millennia, and China ignored the
South China Sea until 1947, when Chiang Kai-Shek decided to emulate
Hitler, whom he admired, and annex the SCS.  This was the start of
China's SCS hoax.

So Trump is not going to invade the Scarborough Shoal before November
3.  If the US and China are ever at war in the SCS, it will be because
China is at war with Vietnam or Taiwan or the Phillippines or Japan,
and the US is providing support.  That's what the delusional Chinese
"experts" are really afraid of.

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-12-2020, 08:39 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I keep saying that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional, and highly delusional, and this article is a good example.

I would feel better if that description couldn't be applied to Trump as well. Such an attack would be fairly absurd, but Trump will be getting desperate. Preparing for such an attack is not totally absurd.

[pbrower2a]

(08-12-2020, 10:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 08:39 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I keep saying that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional, and highly delusional, and this article is a good example.

I would feel better if that description couldn't be applied to Trump as well.  Such an attack would be fairly absurd, but Trump will be getting desperate.  Preparing for such an attack is not totally absurd.

Plagues are bad times for initiating wars. They add new danger to war, already dangerous to soldiers.

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-13-2020, 12:24 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 10:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 08:39 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I keep saying that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional, and highly delusional, and this article is a good example.

I would feel better if that description couldn't be applied to Trump as well.  Such an attack would be fairly absurd, but Trump will be getting desperate.  Preparing for such an attack is not totally absurd.

Plagues are bad times for initiating wars. They add new danger to war, already dangerous to soldiers.

I am not saying it would be wise or safe.  I am saying Trump might be desperate to shake things up at that time.  It would also make for a pretty good distraction to surface the possibility.  I still suspect a lot of the CPP's apparent irrationality is an attempt to focus attention away from their role on COVUS early.

[pbrower2a]

(08-13-2020, 06:34 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-13-2020, 12:24 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 10:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 08:39 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I keep saying that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional, and highly delusional, and this article is a good example.

I would feel better if that description couldn't be applied to Trump as well.  Such an attack would be fairly absurd, but Trump will be getting desperate.  Preparing for such an attack is not totally absurd.

Plagues are bad times for initiating wars. They add new danger to war, already dangerous to soldiers.

I am not saying it would be wise or safe.  I am saying Trump might be desperate to shake things up at that time.  It would also make for a pretty good distraction to surface the possibility.  I still suspect a lot of the CPP's apparent irrationality is an attempt to focus attention away from their role on COVUS early.

Dictators and wannabe dictators do bad things to people, and they ensure that when something goes wrong because they cut corners, other pay the price and get punished when they affix fault to the Great and Infallible Leader. Xi is undeniably a dictator that the system of CCP dominance ensures. Trump faces no such certainty and is more likely to get a term in prison or have to go into exile than to win a second term as President.

Xi had a more rational response to COVID-19 than did Donald Trump. Vile as the political system is in China is, ours over the last forty years seems largely to follow something close to what the late, reactionary oil billionaire said: "He who owns the gold makes the rules". The politician who goes along with that principle, basically a mirror-image Marxist who loves what Marx and his successors have all found abominable about capitalism and holds that above all human values has a far easier time getting elected than someone who would compromise such a principle. 

That principle did lead to Donald Trump, but before that it led to political figures as pure in their support of a political order in which the untrammeled greed of 2% or so of Americans is the objective of us all no matter what the human consequences. 3% of Americans would fare quite well under any system, 5% know that they are doing sort-of-OK but are still being exploited badly, and the other 90% are nothing more than conduits of money between plutocrats who must work for the privilege. 

We do not have a conflict between Marxism and mirror-image Marxism. Were it that simple, America's plutocratic elites would offer plenty of well-paid opportunities  to brutalize honest-to-dialectic-materialism Commies and their sympathizers through official enforcers (government) and unofficial enforcers (like the KKK or neo-Nazis, if necessary) to do unofficial brutality that conveniently disposes of regime critics. It is now a struggle between Enlightenment values that existed before industrial capitalism and the fallen angels that well serve people who see no rightful constraints upon their gain and indulgence. For about forty years we have had typically five steps toward and one step away from a New Feudalism or a superficially American fascism (think of Classic X'er on some other threads) in which what is ostensibly American is acquiescence in something that most of us consider inexcusably vile. (As with fascists in other countries and times, the definition of what people are 'their' country narrows greatly until huge masses are pariahs get the privilege of living miserably if the fascist clique has yet to decide to exterminate them). I would suppose that a superficially-American fascism  praises the tycoon, executive, and landlord and sees them as expressions of parts of America that no longer exist.

The system toward which we have been drifting requires that unless one is part of the elite, then the secret of happiness is stupidity, which well fits a slave. Life for people not rich is as a tool for people who consider the common man expendable. The elites treat the common man badly, inculcating fear at every turn and making sure that such bliss as anyone can enjoy is swift, ephemeral, expensive, and destructive. There are people whom I have seen go out for their breaks, step outside while in a company uniform, and take a drag on a coffin nail. Such is the sort of work that the elites would foist upon me. 

I know the secret of happiness, and that is to accept  that instead of a drug high, a drag on a cancerette, ten minutes of hard-core pornography, an episode of drunkenness, sex with a prostitute, the short-lived good feeling from impulse shopping, or the thrill of the prospect of one's dollar having a chance to pay back as some gigantic reward through gambling that one accept instead a delight that takes more time, knowledge, sophistication, and well-developed aesthetic values to enjoy... a book that cannot be read in a single setting, a trip to a first-rate museum or art gallery, a communion with Nature at its most wonderful, a drama that takes two hours to unfold on stage or screen and needs it, or (instead of the latest Top 40 hit nearly as expendable as toilet paper) an extended work of music that one admires for its cleverness.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Aug-2020 World View: Delusion

(08-12-2020, 10:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > I would feel better if that description couldn't be applied to
> Trump as well.

You're as delusional as the CCP thugs. Are you Chinese?

[David Horn]

(08-12-2020, 10:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 08:39 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I keep saying that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional, and highly delusional, and this article is a good example.

I would feel better if that description couldn't be applied to Trump as well.  Such an attack would be fairly absurd, but Trump will be getting desperate.  Preparing for such an attack is not totally absurd.

It hasn't been established where Trump's limits really are -- if anywhere.  He only thinks in the short term, is toxically averse to losing, and is more than a little delusional.  Where does that leave us?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Aug-2020 World View: Israel and UAE reach peace agreement

US President Donald Trump has mediated a peace agreement between
Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) being described as
"historic," since the agreement will lead to normalization of
diplomatic relations between the two countries, for the first time.
They will exchange embassies and ambassadors, and cooperate in
numerous commercial areas.

According to Trump, both parties were anxious to reach this agreement,
because Israel and UAE are united in their opposition to Iran. Trump
said that the agreement only became possible because the
administration backed out of the Iran nuclear deal, and then Trump
developed personal relations of friendship with several Arab nations,
including Saudi Arabia.

As part of the agreement, Israel will abandon plans to annex a portion
of the West Bank occupied by Israeli settlers. The settler community
will be angered by the agreement.

Trump is claiming that this agreement is an important step on the path
to Mideast peace. This is political fantasy. The Palestinians are
not part of this deal, and they will not be in favor of it. In fact,
the BBC has just quoted a Palestinian official as scoffing at the
deal.

Another country that won't be happy will be Qatar. Qatar is still
under an air, sea and ground blockade by Sunni Arabia and UAE. The
blockade began in 2016, and attempts at mediation by Trump have
failed. However, the US has a large military naval base in Qatar, so
that relationship is important.

More to come ....

-- Israel and UAE reach historic peace deal, Israel to suspen
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/isra...eal-638524
(Reuters, 13-Aug-2020)

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-13-2020, 09:50 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(08-12-2020, 10:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I would feel better if that description couldn't be applied to Trump as well.

You're as delusional as the CCP thugs.  Are you Chinese?

Not Chinese.  Not delusional, nor do I expect are the CCP.  As stated often enough, your tendency to be a partisan ideologue makes you unable to see your opponent's motives.  You assign them bogus straw man motivations, and thus understand poorly their real motivations.  Me, I would choose very differently.  I disagree with a lot which the CCP does.  But, I would say they are rational in achieving the aims that they have chosen.  You should just try not to take their propaganda at face value.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Donald Trump most likely hasn't even heard of Scarborough Shoal.

[pbrower2a]

(08-13-2020, 09:50 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-Aug-2020 World View: Delusion

(08-12-2020, 10:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: >   I would feel better if that description couldn't be applied to
>   Trump as well.

You're as delusional as the CCP thugs.  Are you Chinese?

Chinese-Americans will be voting heavily for Biden, even if they have many characteristics typical of conservatives and despise Communism. 

Trump is not a conservative; he is a fascist pig. Model minorities, and Chinese-Americans are about as much a model minority as German Jews were before 1933, are especially vulnerable to callow demagogues better at finding pariahs than at finding solutions.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Aug-2020 World View: Scarborough Shoal

(08-13-2020, 11:55 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Donald Trump most likely hasn't even heard of Scarborough
> Shoal.

Hmmmm. I always thought that you were more sensible that the
loony-left idiots in this forum. I guess I was wrong.

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-13-2020, 12:51 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(08-13-2020, 11:55 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Donald Trump most likely hasn't even heard of Scarborough Shoal.

Hmmmm.  I always thought that you were more sensible that the loony-left idiots in this forum.  I guess I was wrong.

Again, if your tendency as an ideologue is to assign false straw man motivations to anyone who disagrees with you, you will miss their real motivation and thus they will seem to lack intelligence and logic.  Yes, your straw man theories are illogical and stupid.  That does not mean the real motivations and deeds of Asian governments or liberals are.  You will only convince those already in your bubble.  To those outside your bubble, the bubble will be painfully obvious.  You might try dealing with the real motivations of the CCP, the other Asian governments, the liberals politicians, etc...

Of course, to understand these, you would have to study history with your blinders off.  This is generally rare.  Once one has immersed oneself in an ideological view of the world, it takes something like an 1864 Atlanta or a 1945 Berlin or Hiroshima for someone truly dedicated to a dated perspective to actually change it.  COVID doesn't seem to do it for a lot of ideologues.  The dead are only a number.  They are not as in your face as a burned out city.  It is harder to see that an ideology has become dated, that it is time for a 4T and a replacement.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Aug-20 World View -- Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement
  
• Palestinians infuriated by UAE-Israel peace agreement
  
• Text of the UAE-Israel peace agreement
  

****
**** Mideast leaders split on Israel-UAE 'historic' peace agreement
****


Egypt-Israel peace agreement handshake, on September 6, 1978, at Camp David. Left to right: Egypt's president Anwar Sadat, US president Jimmy Carter, Israel's prime minister Menachem Begin (CNN)

US President Donald Trump has mediated a peace agreement between
Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) being described as
"historic," since the agreement will lead to normalization of
diplomatic relations between the two countries, for the first time.
They will exchange embassies and ambassadors, and cooperate in
numerous areas, including commerce, trade, security, anti-terrorism,
and health.

Historically, this is the third agreement between Israel and an Arab
country since Israel was created in 1948. In 1979, Egypt and Israel
signed a peace agreement between the two countries, and in 1994,
Jordan signed a peace agreement with Israel. Thus, the UAE becomes
the third country to take this step.

According to Trump, both Israel and UAE were anxious to reach this
agreement, because Israel and UAE are united in their opposition to
Iran. Trump said that the agreement only became possible because the
Trump administration backed out of the Iran nuclear deal, and because
Trump then developed personal relations of friendship with several
Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia.

A significant part of the new agreement is that Israel will suspend
plans to annex a portion of the West Bank occupied by Israeli
settlers. These plans to annex a portion of the West Bank have been
extremely controversial since they were announced several months ago.
This has infuriated Jewish settler organizations. David Elhayani,
head of the Yesha Council of settlers, said: "He deceived us. He has
deceived half a million residents of the area and hundreds of
thousands of voters."

Trump is claiming that this agreement is an important step on the path
to Mideast peace. This is political fantasy. The Palestinians are
not part of this deal, and they will not be in favor of it.

Another country that won't be happy will be Qatar. Qatar is still
under an air, sea and ground blockade by Sunni Arabia and UAE. The
blockade began in 2016, and attempts at mediation by Trump have
failed. However, the US has a large military naval base in Qatar, so
that relationship is important.

****
**** Palestinians infuriated by UAE-Israel peace agreement
****

As long-time readers know, the first Generational Dynamics analysis
that I posted was on May 1, 2003, when I predicted that President
George Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" peace plan would fail,
because the Jews and the Palestinians would be re-fighting the bloody
1948 war the followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation
of the state of Israel. Since then, there have been several smaller
Mideast wars, with but there has been no sign of an acceptable peace
agreement. Indeed, I have said any number of times that the so-called
"two-state solution" is impossible.

So it's not surprising that Palestian leadership is denouncing this
agreement, and accusing the UAE of betrayal of the Palestinians, and
even of "stabbing them in the back." Palestinian president Mahmoud
Abbas's senior adviser said, "The Palestinian leadership rejects and
denounces the UAE, Israeli and US trilateral, surprising,
announcement."

A former deputy foreign minister of Iran tweeted:

<QUOTE>"UAE's new approach for normalizing ties w/fake,
criminal #Israel doesn't maintain peace & security, but serves
ongoing Zionists' crimes. Abu Dhabi behavior has no justification,
turning back on the Palestine cause. W/ that strategic mistake,
#UAE will be engulfed in Zionism fire.

— H.amirabdollahian (@Amirabdolahian) August 13,
2020"<END QUOTE>

Other Mideast leaders reacted as expected.

Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain and European countries endorsed the agreement
with varying levels of enthusiasm. At the very least, individual
spokesmen hoped that it would advance the "peace process." Saudi
Arabia has not commented on the agreement, but it's thought that the
UAE would not have taken this step without the Saudi's tacit approval.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other.

****
**** Text of the UAE-Israel peace agreement
****

The following is the text of the agreement announced on Thursday:

<QUOTE>"Joint Statement of the United States, the State of
Israel, and the United Arab Emirates

President Donald J. Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of
Israel, and Sheilch Mohammed Bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi
and Deputy Supreme Commander of the United Arab Emirates spoke
today and agreed to the full normalization of relations between
Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

This historic diplomatic breakthrough will advance peace in the
Middle East region and is a testament to the bold diplomacy and
vision of the three leaders and the courage of the United Arab
Emirates and Israel to chart a new path that will unlock the great
potential in the region. All three countries face many common
challenges and will mutually benefit from today's historic
achievement.

Delegations from Israel and the United Arab Emirates will meet in
the coming weeks to sign bilateral agreements regarding
investment, tourism, direct flights, security, telecommunications,
technology, energy, healthcare, culture, the environment, the
establishment of reciprocal embassies, and other areas of mutual
benefit. Opening direct ties between two of the Middle East's most
dynamic societies and advanced economies will transform the region
by spurring economic growth, enhancing technological innovation,
and forging closer people-to-people relations.

As a result of this diplomatic breakthrough and at the request of
President Trump with the support of the United Arab Emirates,
Israel will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas outlined in
the President's Vision for Peace and focus its efforts now on
expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim
world. The United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates are
confident that additional diplomatic breakthroughs with other
nations are possible, and will work together to achieve this goal.

The United Arab Emirates and Israel will immediately expand and
accelerate cooperation regarding the treatment of and the
development of a vaccine for the coronavirus. Working together,
these efforts will help save Muslim, Jewish, and Christian lives
throughout the region.

This normalization of relations and peaceful diplomacy will bring
together two of America's most reliable and capable regional
partners. Israel and the United Arab Emirates will join with the
United States to launch a Strategic Agenda for the Middle East to
expand diplomatic, trade, and security cooperation. Along with the
United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates share a similar
outlook regarding the threats and opportunities in the region, as
well as a shared conimilment to promoting stability through
diplomatic engagement, increased economic integration, and closer
security coordination. Today's agreement will lead to better lives
for the peoples of the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and the
region.

The United States and Israel recall with gratitude the appearance
of the United Arab Emirates at the White House reception held on
January 28, 2020, at which President Trump presented his Vision
for Peace, and express their appreciation for United Arab
Emirates' related supportive statements. The parties will continue
their efforts in this regard to achieve a just, comprehensive and
enduring resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As set
forth in the Vision for Peace, all Muslims who come in peace may
visit and pray at the Al Aqsa Mosque, and Jerusalem's other holy
sites should remain open for peaceful worshippers of all fifths.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Crown Prince Sheilch Mohammed bin
Zayed Al Nahyan express their deep appreciation to President Trump
for his dedication to peace in the region and to the pragmatic and
unique approach he has taken to achieve it."<END QUOTE>

Sources:

• Israel, UAE reach historic peace deal: ‘We can make a wonderful future’ (Jerusalem Post, 13-Aug-2020)
  
• How the world reacted to UAE, Israel normalising diplomatic ties (Al-Jazeera, 13-Aug-2020)
  
• Remarks by President Trump Announcing the Normalization of Relations Between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (White House, 13-Aug-2020)

Related articles:

• Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan (29-Jan-2020)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  
  
• Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Obama administration ends effort to pressure Israel on settlements (08-Dec-2010)
  
  
• Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mideast, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Gaza, West Bank, Jerusalem, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt,
Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Mahmoud Abbas,
Iran, Qatar, Sheilch Mohammed Bin Zayed

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John J. Xenakis
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[Bob Butler 54]

(08-13-2020, 08:29 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.  Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.  The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.

The Middle East has several conflicts going on.  The Arabs and Jews have a classic xenophobic relationship straight from the Industrial Age.  Organizations like the Taliban and Iran have cultures which are still close to the Agricultural Age, highly religious, highly autocratic, and again with xenophobic tendencies.  The Saudi Arabia elites collected much wealth by becoming colonial partners with the west.  They exemplify Industrial Age colonialism but many states are not ready to step beyond autocratic control.  Then there is the West.  They went after the oil big time and supported the Jew, but they go crazy if somebody treats them as part of the conflict.  

It used to be that the Arab / Jew conflict was dominant.  Of late the Iran / Saudi Arabia conflict is far more active.  The recent Israel UAE treaty reflects the shift in priorities.  One of the few things Obama and Trump have agreed on is that putting US boots on the ground is a bad idea.  The West is still protecting their interests, but are riding a lower profile.

Insurgency and proxy war currently rules.  If you want a bloody stalemate, go that way.  The exception in approach is the United States.  They will mix special forces spotters with air superiority.

The missing element is how the elites will profit.  If there was an easy way to use violence to gain a profit, the xenophobic hatred and religious ideals would provide enough excuse for a conflict.  As is, the only profit comes from selling oil.

The lack of paths to profit is the difference between the Industrial and Information ages.  It is the reason why various tribes and religions will cling to their land through proxy insurgent means, resist outside powers who attempt to meddle, but don’t tend to start overt conflicts.  Sure, each power currently believes its own culture superior, dreams of expanding their influence, but finds itself frustrated when it tries.

Thus I tend to doubt the Generational Dynamics prediction.  It is not that you cannot find flaws in most everyone, or find autocratic cultures that need to catch up with other parts of the world.  It is just that most are trying to upgrade the other guy’s culture rather than looking to improve their own.