Generational Dynamics World View

[David Horn]

(09-16-2020, 04:51 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(09-16-2020, 11:59 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The resources/assets of Southeast Asia have long been of interest to outside powers.  

Awhile back I came across a web site that suggested that SE Asia will be contested by China and Japan.

I’m not so sure it is cost effective to use violence to acquire resources and territory anymore.  A point I often make.  Nukes.  Insurgent proxy wars.  China may not have figured it out yet.  Most of their neighbors are nervous.  They are a potent force, but they have antagonized a lot of people.

Wars of aggression are problematic these days, though.

H-m-m-m.  China is all elbows.  I doubt they plan to march the Red Army anywhere, when they can just get their way by being overbearing. Making the shipping lanes less user friendly to some and more friendly to others is more in line with their methods.  And any country that does a deal with them should expect to be squeezed on a regular basis.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Sep-2020 World View: Orthodox Amusement

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> I find dire predictions and sites like this amusing, because I
> believe structurally that there are great problems too, but like
> the economy, it seems everyone predicts calamites for years or
> decades and then spends even more years explaining why "It hasn't
> happened yet."

I'm glad that we're amusing you. I'll try to throw in some
additional jokes here and there, to add to the entertainment.

But hey, I guess you're right. There'll never be another war, and the
stock market will go up forever. I guess I'd better shut down the
site.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> John, we spoke (wrote) past each other here, but please clarify,
> do you have knowledge of the Orthodox faith? I'm uncertain due to
> the way that you responded; just an honest question. I ask because
> you seem to think that people denying the truth of the world are
> the same with those who love life/goodness/truth/virtue, the
> eternal things, which are of course both God and are of God. Every
> religion and ideology is the same? That's an odd thing for a
> learned man to say, first because they are so objectively
> different even when one doesn't consider (the most important part)
> their metaphysical qualities.

> You seem to unfortunately conclude that all evil or deceived
> "ideologies" or "belief systems" are the same. Well, yes, of
> course they share many sad characteristics. That doesn't mean
> anything other than that in itself --- what's more, you presuppose
> that mental illness is bad (of course) and that the alternative is
> good, which gets at the heart of my real point.

I was raised as Greek Orthodox, but have only general knowledge of
Orthodox theology beyond general Christian theology.

You can say that dogs and cats are profoundly different, but
they share a lot of characteristics in common -- they're both
animals, they both provide companionship and comfort to humans. Those
are good things. However, they're both dumber than a bag of hammers,
compared to (most) humans.

So dogs and cats are profoundly different, but they have a lot in
common, both good and bad. The same is true of religions.

All religions have characteristics in common -- they provide a
framework for day to day living, they provide comfort and guidance in
difficult times, and so forth. But they all have a "jealous god,"
they all refer to people of other religions as some variation of
"infidels," and they all, at times in their history, committed
genocide and ethnic/religious cleansing on populations of other
faiths. (This is clearly documented in the Old Testament, for
example.)

Furthermore, there are a few major religions in the world, and dozens
of minor religions, and they largely contradict each other in
important ways. This is a simple observation, and it has the
following logical consequence: There is at most one true religion.

So when you say, "you seem to think that people denying the truth of
the world are the same with those who love life/goodness/truth/virtue,
the eternal things, which are of course both God and are of God," I
really have no idea what you're talking about. What is truth? Was
Jesus a man or a god or both? There are billions of people whose
"truth" contradicts Christians. Are Jews really going to hell? There
are billions of people who say they will. And what is virtue? Is
it virtuous to have two wives, or is it more virtuous to leave a
single woman unattached in society at war where she might well
be raped with impunity?

There's one more thing that all religions have in common: A believer
can always find a way within the religion to justify any action.

The examples that I gave -- the Nazis kill the Jews or Maduro destroys
Venezuela or Lori Lightfoot destroys Chicago or Ted Wheeler destroys
Portland -- can all be justified by religion. That's a kind of mental
illness. And that's what I meant.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Sep-2020 World View: Persecution in South Vietnam

I received the following e-mail message from a Vietnamese web site
reader, in response to my article on Vietnam:

Quote:> "I have read the article and to be honest, you've
> probably done more research and have a broader and more in depth
> understanding of Vietnam and its history than I. But intuitively
> I believe what is written is true. My family is from South
> Vietnam, close to Saigon, and my family follows Buddhist
> traditions, however, not devoutly, almost as if they've had to
> hide it which I never understood. But now makes sense as it
> wasn't from shame but could be from possible persecution. I also
> definitely agree with other aspects of separation between North
> and South Vietnamese cultures as I believe my parents do not see
> Vietnam as their homeland anymore, or if they do, they almost view
> it as still being occupied by foreign invaders if that makes
> sense, probably one of the reasons they've never gone
> back."

One thing I've noticed pretty consistently in developing Generational
Dynamics is that people who grow up after a generational crisis war
know almost nothing about it, except the bare facts. Their parents
just don't want to talk about it. In developing Generational Dynamics
I've been told by many people that their parents never talk about what
happened during WW II. I attribute this to the fact that the
atrocities that were committed (on both sides) are best forgotten.

The result is a gaping hole in the knowledge that people have about
their own countries. And of course this is one reason that there's a
new crisis war several decades later, when the people with the gaping
hole are running the world.

Here's another example: I just saw on al-Jazeera a report of some
horrific human rights abuses in Burundi. They had video of a poor guy
who was thrown into a pit who was screaming for help while security
forces looked on. The report talks in terms of "security forces" and
"political opponents" and so forth, never once mentioning that the
government is run by Hutus and the "political opponents" are all
Tutsis, and that the violence is a consequence of the 1994 Rwanda
genocide. Why is that fact, which is the core reason for the human
rights abuses in Burundi, completely unmentioned and ignored? Why are
the important facts buried, and leaving some bland mealy-mouthed
political explanation behind as the only reason given.

Perhaps a good way to explain it is "dirty laundry." There's plenty
of dirty laundry left over from a generational crisis war, and the
winners, the loses, the media, the trolls, the deniers, the
collaborators, and the various international politicians all cooperate
to hide the dirty laundry. This is unfortunate, because the only way
that there's any hope to prevent a new generational crisis war is for
the dirty laundry from the last one to be well known by the public.
Instead, they know almost nothing.

So I could modify ‎George Santayana's famous saying as follows: "Those
who cannot remember the dirty laundry of the past are
condemned to repeat it."

I could not have written that article on Vietnam until recently. The
bare facts of Vietnam's history -- domination by China, invasion by
French, America's defeat in the "Vietnam war" -- are well known, but
beyond those facts, almost all other facts in the narrative of that
article had to be dug out from the 350 or so sources that I've been
reading. For example, the reconstruction of the Tay-Son rebellion
alone required a dozen sources, with each source describing a
different angle, but avoiding dirty laundry mentioned in another
source.

So I appreciate the comment from the web site reader, telling me what
he does not know, because what he does not know is almost more
important than what he does know.

** 16-Sep-20 World View -- Economic powerhouse Vietnam scrambles to recover from pandemic setbacks
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200916

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Sep-2020 World View: Brexit and BRI in Europe

DaKardii Wrote:> John, how do you think Brexit will affect the WWIII alignments in
> Europe?

> I personally believe that Germany and the UK will be on opposing
> sides, and France could go either way.

> Since the end of the Franco-Prussian war in 1871, France and the
> UK have worked closely together to prevent a unified Germany from
> dominating the European continent. This common goal was the
> central reason why they were allies in both World Wars, despite
> being historic enemies. It was also the central reason why they
> both opposed German re-unification in 1990, despite the US
> supporting it. Since 1990, they have been trying to accommodate
> Germany while also serving as soft counterbalances against it.

> However, France hasn't always been so committed to
> counterbalancing Germany. Many French sympathize with Germany
> because they would prefer Europe to be dominated by a continental
> power (such as France and Germany), as opposed to a
> non-continental power (such as Russia, the UK, and the US). This
> sentiment may have been the central reason why many French
> willingly collaborated with Germany during WWII, and it was
> definitely the central reason why France was initially strongly
> opposed to the UK joining the EU in the first place.

> With Brexit completed, tensions are starting to rise between the
> EU and the UK over post-Brexit trade arrangements. These
> disagreements have the potential to escalate into territorial
> disputes between the UK and the EU members bordering it,
> especially Ireland. Should that happen, Germany could use these
> disputes as a pretext to promote both further European integration
> and the creation of a "European Army" that would effectively serve
> as a way around the post-WWII restrictions on German
> rearmament. Because both the UK and most of Western Europe are in
> a crisis era, odds are such escalations will indeed occur.

> At this point, France will face a serious dilemma. On one hand, it
> supports further European integration and the formation of a
> "European Army" just as much, if not more than Germany does. But
> on the other hand, such developments would significantly increase
> the stakes of a future unbalancing of the current continental
> co-hegemony existing between the two countries. France probably
> recalls that the last time Germany was forced to share hegemony
> with another continental power (Austria) in a confederate union
> (the German Confederation), the unbalancing of that co-hegemony
> led to war. Germany decisively won that war within six weeks, and
> Austria's loss of that war caused it to undergo a slow decline
> that led to the complete collapse of its empire within three
> generations. France obviously does not want to meet the same fate
> as Austria. So, what does it do in this situation?

This is a very sophisticated analysis of European politics.

My personal view for some time has been that there will be a "hard
Brexit," and although that seemed unlikely only few months ago, it
seems almost inevitable today. Still, I don't see a hard Brexit as
leading to a European war, although your suggestion that it could
result in border wars seems plausible.

Still, I'd have to wait and see how likely it is that disputes over
Northern Ireland tariffs or English Channel fishing grounds would lead
to full-scale war. If the neo-Nazis won control of Germany's
government then my opinion might change, but right now, sitting here
in Boston and watching Europe from a distance, I don't see enough
animus to escalate into a full war, as happened when the Nazis came to
power in the 1930s.

I believe that there's a big piece missing from your analysis, a
piece much more important than Brexit. That piece would be
China's activities in using its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
to split European countries from each other.

For example, here's an interesting article from Chinese Communist
state media describing how the BRI is saving Europe from the
coronavirus:

*** Spotlight: China-Europe anti-pandemic ties set stage for economic recovery (Xinhua, 8-Sep-2020)
*** http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-09...351185.htm

This article lists several European countries where BRI is playing "a
critical role in the continent's combat against the COVID-19
pandemic." Another example is China's majority investment in Greece's
strategic Piraeus port.

As usual, China is buying loyalty with BRI, but it remains to be seen
how deep that loyalty goes, when each individual country has to make
existential decisions related to war.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Sep-2020 World View: Following the old path

JJ333 Wrote:> We stepped onto an old path that still leads to the same place.

> 1920s/2000s – neoclassical economics, high inequality, high banker
> pay, low regulation, low taxes for the wealthy, robber barons
> (CEOs), reckless bankers, globalisation phase

> 1929/2008 – Wall Street crash

> 1930s/2010s – Global recession, currency wars, trade wars,
> austerity, rising nationalism and extremism

> 1940s – World war.

> We forgot we had been down that path before.

> It does get worse, look where we are going.

This is a summary of some of the generational factors in going from
WW II to WW III.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Sep-2020 World View: The 'Great Reset'

Guest Wrote:> I don't mean to divert attention from the present convo, but...
> https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/c...eat-reset/

> Why is no one even trying to talk about this? What you see when
> you click that link and drop into the rabbit hole that is the plan
> to "reset" the world economy is pure globalist (and for those of
> faith, Satanist) evil.

This book is the usual fatuous mainstream media nonsense. For
example, based on the description, the predictions do not include war
with China. If you want something to worry about, then worry about
that.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Sep-2020 World View: Trend lines

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> John, I chuckled when I saw your response with the heading
> "Orthodox amusement". The point of my question was to understand
> where you are coming from, how you think, and what you know. Your
> answers were revealing. By the way, I'm just amused by how we
> think we are so important and can predict what is happening (and
> some can, some do --- but you'll notice they never really get it
> right twice = mostly lucky) and then go on and on about how or why
> it didn't happen. Having said that, I am actually in your camp
> (can't you tell?) in many ways, including the fact that the world
> is changing dramatically and mostly for the worst, especially if
> you grew up believing that the US Constitution actually mattered
> or that the government in its foundation wasn't really corrupt
> (most didn't realize this until all of the soft coups coming after
> President Trump and the manner in which they are
> attempted).

I totally disagree with this. I've posted over 6,000 articles
containing thousands of Generational Dynamics predictions about
hundreds of countries and regions, and not only have I "gotten it
right twice," I've gotten it right every time (except for a couple of
times in the early days when I mistakenly made some timing
predictions).

Let's take an example. In 2004 I predicted a stock market crash
and financial crisis similar to 1929. Now you can say that never
happened, and that's true so far, but there was another part to
that prediction. It was that public debt would continue to increase
unsustainably until a crash occurred. For the prediction to be
wrong, it would require that public debt level off and fall, and
that hasn't happened.

The prediction is really about the trend line. Once that's been
established then you can apply the following rule:

> If something can't go forever, then it won't.

Generational Dynamics can't predict the precise time that the crash
will occur, but can predict the unsustainable trend line and the fact
that a crash must occur some time. You might say that the prediction
in that form is useless, and maybe it is for you. But for an
investor, it means don't plan on buying some stocks and just holding
onto them for 20 years. You have to remain alert and be prepared to
sell at a moment's notice, or else lose everything you own, as
happened to many people after the 1929 crash.

Let's take another example. In 2005 I started predicting war with
China. I was ridiculed for that prediction, as I was for the stock
market prediction, but the trend line is clear. Today one can look
back and see a trend line of increasing belligerence, hostility,
nationalism, and xenophobia. The Generational Dynamics prediction is
that all these trends will continue to increase unsustainably, and
that you can apply "If something can't go on forever, then it won't,"
and conclude that there will be a war at some time in the future.

Once again, that prediction may be useless to you, since it doesn't
give a starting date for the war. But to others it might mean moving
one's family or business out of China, rather than counting on China
becoming more peaceful and less insane.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> I addressed this above. Predicting is hard. I love guys that try
> to do it though, most pussies in the modern day won't even try, so
> those that do actually earn a great deal of respect from me. My
> point remains that things coming are hard to see set off and
> usually we keep predicting into the wind though years go by with
> zero happening. I'm willing to be general or have a framework
> ... do you all here also believe that the war is by 2025? or more
> like by 2030?

Generational Dynamics cannot predict a date for the start of war.
However, human analysts can estimate a start date. I often refer to
such events as "chaotic events," since they're triggered by random
events like politics or the weather. (This alludes to the Chaos
Theory concept that a butterfly flapping its wings in China can cause
a chain reaction that leads to a hurricane in America.)

I have made predictions about chaotic events, but I always try to
remember to couch such predictions in phrases like "in my opinion" or
"my expectation." However, these predictions of chaotic events are
not just pure guesswork. I'm always guided by Generational Dynamics
trend predictions, and the result has been that my predictions of
chaotic events have been almost 100% accurate. I don't believe that
there's any journalist, analyst, politician or web site in the world
with a better record of accurate predictions than my web site.

So when will war with China begin? It's a chaotic event, so a random
event may trigger it. For example, a butterfly may flap its wings
somewhere, causing a typhoon in the South China Sea that leads to an
unexpected clash between a Chinese cruiser and Vietnamese fishing
boat, leading to a larger clash, then a regional war, then a world
war. There are a million scenarios that can lead to world war. Go
back and read my descriptions of how World War II started -- because a
Japanese soldier unexpectedly had to pee, got lost in the woods,
leading to the Marco Polo Bridge incident, which led to the Rape of
Nanking and full scale war. There's no way to predict stuff like
that, just as I can't tell you whether America's deficit will go to
$25 trillion, $30 trillion or $50 trillion before a crash occurs. All
I can tell you is the nature of the unsustainable trend.

As for when war with China will begin, I'll just say what I've said in
the past: It might begin tomorrow, next week, next month, next year,
or after that. An exact date cannot be predicted.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Of course you are right, but the first part is a materialist
> (atheist) argument. It is true, but only a small part of the
> story, not all that there is by any means. As for the second part,
> you are again logical and correct, Socrates employed the same
> logic in understanding that there can be only one true
> God.

It's not clear to me why you characterize an argument as "materialist"
or Socratecian and use that to conclude that the argument is wrong.
Isn't that a pretty common error in logic?

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> "What is truth? ... And what is virtue?"

> These questions show us why the USA has been declining, they are
> painstakingly too common. They are evidence that people have lost
> the foundation on which we build civilizations and find meaning in
> life. In the case of all of us of advanced civilizations and
> heritage, Christianity.

I respect your deeply held Christian beliefs, but I'm a lot more
cynical than that, and history backs me up.

Let's take the question of genocide. In the last century, we had the
Armenian genocide (Muslims killing Christians), the Ukrainian genocide
(Christians killing Christians), the Great Leap Forward (Confucians
killing Confucians), the Nazi genocide (Christians killing Jews, then
Christians), the Cambodian genocide (Buddhists killing Buddhists),
Loatian Hmong genocide (Buddhists killing Christians), the Srebrenica
genocide (Christians killing Muslims), Zimbabwe's Operation
Gukurahundi (Christians killing Christians), the Rwanda genocide
(Christians killing Christians), the Syrian genocide (Muslims killing
Muslims), and so forth.

So every devout believer of any religion claims that his religion is
the best, but no one has ever shown me any evidence to contradict the
observation that people of every religion commit beatings, atrocities,
rapes, torture, massacres, genocide or ethnic cleansing of people of
other religions just the same as everyone else. These things are part
of the human DNA just as much as sex is -- and indeed they have to be
for the human race to have survived -- and any religion denying them
is just talking, and ignoring what is obvious.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> "There's one more thing that all religions have in common: A
> believer can always find a way within the religion to justify any
> action."

> I think more accurately stated, [some] people use religious
> impulses to do and justify anything. Some religions (Islam) do
> have histories of violence and justification of it (they teach it
> as a matter of fact, dogma) and others do not (I can name several
> here).

There is no difference in this regard between Islam and other
religions. I wrote about this in detail in my book on the history of
Iran, which also contains a history of Islam and the Sunni-Shia split.
It you'd like to actually understand Islam, rather than the media
nonsense about Islam, then I suggest that you become one of the few
people to read my book:

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

[John J. Xenakis]

** 20-Sep-2020 World View: Military exercises - rehearsals on taking over Taiwan

Guest Wrote:> China is sending rockets over Taiwan and violating Taiwan's
> airspace. Also Chinese hacking activity is becoming more
> brazen. The Chinese don't seem to care if they are caught
> anymore. Also the Chinese are becoming more and aggressive in the
> South China Sea. Look at what they have done to Hong Kong. The
> mainland Chinese have always been boorish, but things are
> different now. It seems the mainlanders don't even pretend to be
> peaceful anymore. The mainlanders have also said that if American
> officials visit Taiwan on a trade mission, the Beijing gangsters
> will retaliate. This Friday...

guest Wrote:> Quote from Japan Times:

> In what observers said was a response to Krach’s three-day visit
> and increasing high-level U.S.-Taiwan meetings, China sent a total
> of 19 fighter jets, bombers and surveillance aircraft across the
> so-called median line dividing the Taiwan Strait for the second
> consecutive day Saturday. The warplanes entered Taiwan’s air
> defense identification zone, prompting Taipei to scramble fighters
> in response.

> Chinese state-run media lashed out at the visit by Krach, with the
> hawkish Global Times on Friday calling the military exercises
> “rehearsals on taking over Taiwan.”

> Late Saturday, Global Times editor Hu Xin wrote in a signed
> editorial that Beijing could respond to Washington’s moves with
> force.

> “If the U.S. and the island continue their collusion to secede the
> island from China, we believe that the (Chinese People’s
> Liberation Army) is resolute enough to launch cruise missiles over
> through the island, send fighter jets above the island to declare
> sovereignty, and carry out military drills there,” he wrote. “As a
> result, a new military construct will be formed in the Taiwan
> Straits.”

> https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/0...JPiO3YwQj7

The quotes from the Global Times reflect a major new increase in
tensions over Taiwan. The claims from Chinese media that the
aggressive military actions are "rehearsals on taking over Taiwan" are
quite credible, and suggest that there will be even more aggressive
military actions to come. Combined with other disputes (trade,
TikTok, Wuhan Coronavirus, etc.), tensions have been increasing
rapidly this year.

Referring back to my earlier post to Cool Breeze, this is another step
along the trend line of increasing belligerence, hostility,
nationalism, and xenophobia. Generational Dynamics has been
predicting for 15 years that this trend line will continue with
increased tensions (not level off or have reduced tensions), and the
continually increased tensions will be unsustainable. "If something
can't go on forever, then it won't."

That doesn't mean that war will begin next week, though it might. But
as I've said many times, war is absolutely certain, and it might begin
next week, next month, next year, or later.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 20-Sep-2020 World View: The Dred Scott Decision

In 1857, the Supreme Court issued the "Dred Scott decision" that a
slave was an owned possession and therefore not a citizen of the
United States in the sense meant by the Constitution. This decision
inflamed the public on both sides of the slavery issue.

There are many people who believe that this decision was a major
factor leading to the American Civil War, and that therefore the
Supreme Court should be blamed for being a CAUSE of the American Civil
War. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this judgment
is wrong, since the Civil War would have occurred anyway, but this is
the perception of some people.

Whether that perception is right or not, a variation of that
perception has been accepted by a lot more people: That the principal
objective of the Supreme Court, with even higher priority than literal
interpretation of the Constitution, is to make decisions that will
preserve the Union. This principle makes it possible for the Supreme
Court to "make law" rather than just follow the law, something that
has led to both censure and acclamation of various Supreme Court
decisions.

This was one of the seldom reported issues in the 2000 Bush vs Gore
presidential election. The election was in a state of chaos because
of irregularities in one Florida district, whose resolution could turn
the election either way. Many people felt that the Dred Scott
decision was overhanging the 2000 Supreme Court, and the decisions
they made had the explicit purpose of ending the election chaos, so
that Constitutional order and the Union could be preserved.

The 2020 election is already headed for massive chaos because of the
mail-in ballot situation. Speaking as a systems analyst, this is
going to lead to massive irregularities and a lot of fraud. As an
example of how stupidity and mismanagement can lead to massive fraud,
I call your attention to my 2015 article on Healthcare.gov which
showed how mismanagement and stupidity were so great and so riddled
with fraud that Obama and the White House had no idea for hours or
days after the web site opened that only a six people were even able
to register. So I see the Healthcare.gov situation, with its massive
irregularities and fraud, repeating itself in the mail-in ballot
chaos.

** Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history (23-Aug-2015) **
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...150823.htm

During the last two days, there has been a major new development in
the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Donald Trump and the Republicans
are calling to replace Ginsburg as quickly as possible. The Democrats
are making numerous threats of chaos in retaliation -- increased
fascist violence by antifa-blm, using the mail-in irregularities to
stall declaring an election winner, and packing the Supreme Court if
Biden wins and the Democrats win the Senate.

So the Supreme Court is going to be looking at all this, and my
expectation is that each justice will be guided not by whether he's a
Democrat or Republic, or whether he's liberal or conservative, but by
what the best way will be to end the chaos, select a winner, restore
Constitutional order, and preserve the Union. This principle could
favor either side. In this sense, the Dred Scott decision remains
relevant today.

[Bob Butler 54]

(09-16-2020, 05:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: H-m-m-m.  China is all elbows.  I doubt they plan to march the Red Army anywhere, when they can just get their way by being overbearing. Making the shipping lanes less user friendly to some and more friendly to others is more in line with their methods.  And any country that does a deal with them should expect to be squeezed on a regular basis.

On most threads I would agree with you, but we are on the Generational Dynamics thread. Here on Earth Three we are back in the 1930s, xenophobia runs rampant, dominating economics and idealism as the cause of war. Sergeants run war policy rather than presidents, party leaders or dictators. If a soldier sneezes it is cause to predict a war is about to break loose.

Takes a little getting used to.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 21-Sep-2020 World View: Generational theory

(09-21-2020, 03:01 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > On most threads I would agree with you, but we are on the
> Generational Dynamics thread. Here on Earth Three we are back in
> the 1930s, xenophobia runs rampant, dominating economics and
> idealism as the cause of war. Sergeants run war policy rather
> than presidents, party leaders or dictators. If a soldier sneezes
> it is cause to predict a war is about to break loose. Takes a
> little getting used to.

This is supposed to be a generational theory forum but, once again,
it's clear that I'm the only member of this forum who considers
generational theory to be valid.

[Bob Butler 54]

(09-21-2020, 06:57 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: This is supposed to be a generational theory forum but, once again, it's clear that I'm the only member of this forum who considers generational theory to be valid.

There is a lot of good research going on in Generational Dynamics.  There is stuff to be gained.  

Alas, you are obsessed with xenophobia in a similar way with how Classic is centered on violence or the Republicans used to embrace Neo Cons in the days before the American people rejected boots on the ground.  I begin to wonder how much this is a conservative trend, an obsession with violence and keeping to how things used to be.  It meshes with how the Republicans are handling the violent racist policing issue.  (WEIRD too.)

You also let your personal ideological obsessions vastly misunderstand those whose values are dissimilar to your own.  Thus a reader who doesn’t share your ideology has severe doubts about anything that involves understanding folks.  That may not have much to do with the theory, but taints your work badly.

Gets to be you have to take the research with lots of salt, so much so that Generational Dynamics is pretty salty.  I can embrace lots of theories relatively intact: turnings, civilizations, ages, behavioral psychology, how humans evolved, and I’m working on WIERD.  These occasionally clash with each other, requiring a little adjustments here and there to accept the wisdom of the various perspectives.  For example, you cannot count on a theory without question if they mostly take samples from the Industrial Age, and try to apply it in the Information Age.  It is just that Generational Dynamics requires a lot more adjustments than most theories I deal with regularly.  Many are flaws with the author, not flaws with Generational Dynamics.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 21-Sep-2020 World View: Being at peace

Taiwan Forever" Wrote:> I live in Seoul, South Korea, but what is left of my family lives
> in Taipei, Taiwan. I want to thank you, John for the information
> and hard work that has gone into all of this. I don't talk with my
> family about this anymore. It's pointless. I don't think I will be
> alive much longer, and that really doesn't bother me. I am at
> peace with it. Thank you for preparing me for the end. I don't
> have much else to say.

> Thank you, John.

Well, I live in Boston, but apart from that I agree with everything
you're saying. Pretty much everything is pointless these days, and
the best thing to do is prepare for the end and be at peace. And no,
there really isn't much left to say after that, is there.

Thank you for your message.

[Bob Butler 54]

(09-21-2020, 09:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

Taiwan Forever Wrote:I live in Seoul, South Korea, but what is left of my family lives in Taipei, Taiwan. I want to thank you, John for the information and hard work that has gone into all of this. I don't talk with my family about this anymore. It's pointless. I don't think I will be alive much longer, and that really doesn't bother me. I am at peace with it. Thank you for preparing me for the end. I don't have much else to say.

Thank you, John.

Well, I live in Boston, but apart from that I agree with everything you're saying.  Pretty much everything is pointless these days, and the best thing to do is prepare for the end and be at peace.  And no, there really isn't much left to say after that, is there.

Thank you for your message.

I get the feeling that the separation is mutual.  From what Dave says about being a blue in a red area, he avoids talking about politics too. The difference is that Dave learned to keep quiet fairly early.  

If you don’t want to feel like a fish out of water, head for the water?  It is easier than becoming something other than a fish?

The WEIRD theory seems to account for it.  The equivalent of the red group is into tribal thinking, relationships among the group, obligations among the group, a more rural life and, excluding others not kin or not sharing a larger ideology.  America - if you are into this perspective - was created for white Anglo American Protestants, the cavalier culture.  If you value another identity such as blacks, latinos or native Americans, go away or expect rejection.  In older times, if you were Asian, Italian, Irish or whatever the latest group of immigrants was, you got rejected as well.

Then there is the Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic (WEIRD) folks seeking principle, bonding temporarily with folks with similar skills, thinking that all men are created equal and trying to live to the ideal.  This is the more urban educated roundhead culture that drove the reformation, the enlightenment, the industrial revolution, the recent 4Ts.  They will develop principles such as banning kings, banning slavery, banning dictators, banning racism, and other things that frustrates tribal thinking.

The tribal folks dedicated to people like them just don’t agree with the folks who insist on including all.  The best one can do is move to an area dominated by your own tribe.  If you don’t, you will be rejected.  In many parts of the world, many groups are still tribal, still working for the group, still conflicting with other tribes.  WEIRD parts of the world are mostly made of people who have learned to read, who have different mind patterns, who value principle over tribe.  It is just how your mind works generally if you are a reader, though there are obviously exceptions.  It seems we can’t go back to the illiterate days.  Our brains are not going to be wired as they once were.  In places like America, South Korea, or Taiwan it is too late.  The people are already predominantly literate.  If you are going to integrate happily, you have to mesh with the WEIRD way of thinking and living.  If you can’t, you are going to end up a fish out of water.  It is best to get wet.  It is rather hard to not be a fish anymore.

[pbrower2a]

(09-16-2020, 04:51 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(09-16-2020, 11:59 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The resources/assets of Southeast Asia have long been of interest to outside powers.  

Awhile back I came across a web site that suggested that SE Asia will be contested by China and Japan.

I’m not so sure it is cost effective to use violence to acquire resources and territory anymore.  A point I often make.  Nukes.  Insurgent proxy wars.  China may not have figured it out yet.  Most of their neighbors are nervous.  They are a potent force, but they have antagonized a lot of people.

Wars of aggression are problematic these days, though.

World War II ripped apart the assumptions of colonial rule. Small cadres of colonial administrators and business operators and executives could not overpower the much larger populations of British India, French Indochina, and the Dutch East Indies as such people did after those lands were taken out of Japanese domination at the end of WWII. If small countries acting in nationalist individualism could easily be drawn into the Nazi orbit through intrigue or conquest, colonial empires in southeast Asia and western Oceania were vulnerable to brute-force overthrow by the Japanese who could dedicate themselves to a large army and navy for such a purpose. 

Nukes and ICBMs scare the hell out of even those leaders who have them. If you wonder why the US and the Soviet Union were able to agree on non-proliferation, it was because both countries did not want others, including those with defensive agreements or alliances with them (either way) to get nukes or ICBMs.  

Were the colonial empires in southeastern Asia still intact, China would be in an excellent position for 'liberating' them. The ethnic Chinese populations in Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam are much larger than the small number of colonial officials and resource-extractors from the First World in those countries. Ethnic Chinese that the Japanese treated brutally were a natural fifth column against the Japanese in World War II. (It is easier to win the peace with kindness than with brutality. The British and Americans could keep the peace upon conquest, and their fascist enemies couldn't keep the peace. That ultimately decided World War II. 

This said, any country in the Pacific basin that mistreats the ethnic Chinese badly is at risk of a Chinese military response without help from any other country against such a response. I don't see anyone stupid enough to do anything so amoral and suicidal.

[Bob Butler 54]

(09-22-2020, 12:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: World War II ripped apart the assumptions of colonial rule. Small cadres of colonial administrators and business operators and executives could not overpower the much larger populations of British India, French Indochina, and the Dutch East Indies as such people did after those lands were taken out of Japanese domination at the end of WWII.

It was not just that. The United States after World War II forgave Lend Lease loans to powers who renounced closed ports. This was obviously to the US's advantage as they had the shipping and manufacturing and many did not. No closed ports, no captive markets, no cheap sources of raw materials, no point in having colonies. You would end up responsible for a undeveloped area without gaining the economic advantage out of it. Thus, the former mother countries did not attempt to maintain their former domination.

[Bob Butler 54]

More folding in WEIRD and it’s opposite in tribal thinking.

If the red are to be linked into a rural tribal life, the idea of xenophobia as encountered in General Dynamics does make more sense.  Tribes do not like each other.  In the old way of thinking, this is a feature not a bug.  Here in the US we have racism, but elsewhere it is not hard to find all out crisis wars.  Tribes and tribal thinking are more common in rural areas.  This explains why Generational Dynamics has no problems finding crisis wars in more rural areas, but none among the more urban WEIRD major powers.

It also seem to go with how Generational Dynamics puts xenophobia as more important than economic and idealistic reasons for conflicts.  There is a large dose of tribal thinking in Generational Dynamics, and economics and idealism are more WEIRD.

I have been accepting the longish list of crisis wars that Xenakis provided, and trying to reconcile it with the obvious lack of crisis triggers among the major powers.  The non cost effectiveness of proxy insurgent warfare and nuclear exchanges are part of it.  Now I am seeing another reason.  Rural tribal cultures just tend towards xenophobia between tribes.  Xenophobia is virtually part of the definition of how tribal thinking works.  You reject people from other tribes in favor of the kin group.  Crisis wars are just the extreme result of it.  The thinking of the major powers is more based on principles and ideals.  You wouldn’t expect them to act the same.

I am starting to wonder how much of the strange straw men Xenakis comes up with is ideological blindness, or whether he just cannot comprehend the WEIRD thought pattern?  The bad parodies of thought patterns of people with different values are the best he can come up with?  It isn’t a lack of intelligence, it is more a limitation in being locked into the tribal perspective?

[pbrower2a]

(09-22-2020, 01:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(09-22-2020, 12:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: World War II ripped apart the assumptions of colonial rule. Small cadres of colonial administrators and business operators and executives could not overpower the much larger populations of British India, French Indochina, and the Dutch East Indies as such people did after those lands were taken out of Japanese domination at the end of WWII.

It was not just that.  The United States after World War II forgave Lend Lease loans to powers who renounced closed ports.  This was obviously to the US's advantage as they had the shipping and manufacturing and many did not.  No closed ports, no captive markets, no cheap sources of raw materials, no point in having colonies.  You would end up responsible for a undeveloped area without gaining the economic advantage out of it.  Thus, the former mother countries did not attempt to maintain their former domination.

Countries that had colonies also often had to choose between fighting to keep colonies that had cast off the Japanese and rebuilding their domestic infrastructure. The Dutch were not going to fight to keep Indonesia. The United States had already planned to grant independence to the Philippines, and the Japanese imposed an ugly parody of independence in a puppet state. Gandhi and Jinnah had behaved themselves well enough during World War II. The US was more concerned about thwarting Communism than in keeping colonial empires intact.

[Bob Butler 54]

(09-22-2020, 04:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(09-22-2020, 01:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(09-22-2020, 12:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: World War II ripped apart the assumptions of colonial rule. Small cadres of colonial administrators and business operators and executives could not overpower the much larger populations of British India, French Indochina, and the Dutch East Indies as such people did after those lands were taken out of Japanese domination at the end of WWII.

It was not just that.  The United States after World War II forgave Lend Lease loans to powers who renounced closed ports.  This was obviously to the US's advantage as they had the shipping and manufacturing and many did not.  No closed ports, no captive markets, no cheap sources of raw materials, no point in having colonies.  You would end up responsible for a undeveloped area without gaining the economic advantage out of it.  Thus, the former mother countries did not attempt to maintain their former domination.

Countries that had colonies also often had to choose between fighting to keep colonies that had cast off the Japanese and rebuilding their domestic infrastructure. The Dutch were not going to fight to keep Indonesia. The United States had already planned to grant independence to the Philippines, and the Japanese imposed an ugly parody of independence in a puppet state. Gandhi and Jinnah had behaved themselves well enough during World War II. The US was more concerned about thwarting Communism than in keeping colonial empires intact.

The US motive in forcing the other manufacturing mother countries at that time was entirely selfish. Forgiving Lend Lease was a big lever, and they used it to the max. This should not be forgotten.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Sep-20 World View -- China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan
  
• China's incursion strategy
  
• China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan
  

****
**** China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan
****


Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen on Monday (Taipei Times)

The Chinese Communists further escalated the tensions with Taiwan on
Sunday, by sending a mass of 43 warplanes across the Taiwan Strait,
crossing the historic "median line" or "middle line" separating China
from Taiwan, and entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone
(ADIZ).

The incursions came from multiple directions and involved a
combination of sophisticated fighter jets and heavy bombers, without
modern precedent, marking a significant escalation in cross-strait
tensions. Taiwan responded by scrambling its own warplanes, which
intercepted the Chinese warplanes and escorted them back in the
direction of China.

The Chinese Communists went even further when Foreign Ministry
Spokesperson Wang Wenbin claimed in a statement that "Taiwan is an
inalienable part of Chinese territory; there is no so-called median
line of the strait." The "median line" was established in 1954 to
establish rules to prevent Taiwan-China conflicts. The sudden
declaration that the median line does not exist is the latest flouting
of international law by the Chinese Communist Master Race.

Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen accused China of threatening regional
stability, and praised the "heroic performance" of Taiwan's pilots in
intercepting the Chinese warplanes:

<QUOTE>"I have a lot of confidence in you. As soldiers of the
Republic of China [Taiwan], how could we let enemies strut around
in our own airspace?"<END QUOTE>

The Chinese Communists have indicated that the intrusions are
retaliation for a visit to Taiwan by U.S. Under Secretary of State
Keith Krach last week to attend the memorial service of late President
Lee Teng-hui.

****
**** China's incursion strategy
****

According to an analysis by the Federation of American Scientists
(FAS), China has commited more than 4,400 intrusions into the ADIZs of
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan since 2013. There have been thousands
of intrusions into Japan's ADIZ, hundreds into South Korea's ADIZ, and
two dozen into Taiwan's ADIZ.

This is consistent with the findings of my 2019 book, "War Between
China and Japan - Why America must be prepared," in which I found,
after extensive research, that China is planning for and preparing for
a war of revenge against Japan, and a war of annexation against
Taiwan.

According to a FAS analysis:

<QUOTE>"Over the last decade, Chinese flights in the East
China Sea have become increasingly more sophisticated. Intrusions
in the early 2010s often featured single Y-8 early warning
aircraft flying near the Senkakus to the Miyako Strait. By the
late 2010s, Chinese flights evolved into more specialized training
missions featuring multiple independent flight groups of various
aircraft packages conducting increasingly long-range flights to
the Pacific."<END QUOTE>

These "training missions" are preparing China for its revenge invasion
of Japan.

With regard to Taiwan, the FAS analysis found: "Chinese air
provocations against Taiwan manifest in three ways: circumnavigational
flights of Taiwan, ADIZ intrusions, and violations of the cross-strait
median line. Circumnavigational flights are the most common
provocation, followed by ADIZ intrusions. Violations of the median
line are widely seen as the most provocative action and as a result
are rare." The FAS report is several months old, and the violations
of the median line are now more frequent and, indeed, China now says
that the median line does not exist.

The FAS analysis gives "four clear objectives" of China's intrusions
into the ADIZ's of other countries:

• to conduct training missions to prepare pilots for
  encountering foreign air forces during long-range flights;
  
• to probe and gather intel on Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese
  forces;
  
• to demonstrate air power capable of protecting its territorial and
  security interests;
  
• and to apply coercive pressure to decouple coalitions resistant to
  Chinese influence in the region.

"On this last point it is important to remember that China not only
seeks to decouple security partners like Japan, South Korea, and the
United States from one another, but to also manipulate possible
domestic political cleavages to its advantage, such as those
potentially between Taiwanese citizens and the Tsai government and
between Japan’s hardline security establishment and more cautious
partners like the Komeito."

****
**** China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan
****

In 2016, Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),
led by Tsai Ing-wen, defeated the pro-Beijing Kuomintang (KMT) party
in the presidential election, changing the directions of Taiwan's
politics, and also changing the direction of China-Taiwan relations.
( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election"
)

Prior to 2016, when the pro-Beijing KMT was in power, relations were
very cordial, with the Chinese Communists indulging in the fantasy
that if they were nice to Taiwan, then the Taiwanese people would
actually want to give up their nation, and become a province of China.
That was never going to happen, but the election of Tsai Ing-wen as
president destroyed the fantasy for all but the most delusional
Chinese Communists.

According to analysis by the Shanghai-based Fudan University, the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has adopted a set of dual-track policies
towards Taiwan.

One set of policies are used to "tighten the noose on Taipei to
contain the pro-independence momentum." Some of these policies are as
follows:

• Escalating military deterrence toward Taiwan, such as the last
  week's intrusions into Taiwan's ADIZ by dozens of Chinese
  warplanes.
  
  
• Adopting no-contact policy by cutting off all levels of political
  communications DPP politicians in Taiwan with any mainland
  institutions or officials. The CPP tolerated this contacts when the
  KMT was in power.
  
  
• Using a variety of coercive techniques -- bribery and extortion --
  to get other countries to end diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
  
  
• Preventing Taiwan from participating in various international
  organizations, such as the World Health Organization.
  
  
• Blacklsting actors, singers and other entertainment industry
  figures who have expressed pro-independence views.

The second track of Taiwan policies is for politicians and other
Taiwanese individuals who have expressed pro-Beijing views or at least
have been neutral on the independence questions. Generally speaking,
these are the same policies that Beijing applied to everyone in Taiwan
when the KMT was in power, but they are now blocked for anyone
expressing pro-independence views.

According to the report, Beijing's aim is to more closely integrate
Taiwan into China in economic, social and cultural fields:

<QUOTE>"[For example, in February 2018], Beijing unveiled 31
preferential measures covering fields of industry, finance and
taxation, land use, employment, education and health care. The
essential objective of Beijing is to integrate Taiwan people and
companies more closely with China.

Since the introduction of the 31 preferential measures, it is
reported that more than 2,000 enterprises with investment from
Taiwan have enjoyed preferential tax treatment on the mainland and
more than 100 enterprises have secured special financial support
under programs for industrial transformation and upgrading, green
manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing. Additionally, Beijing
annulled administrative restrictions on high-skilled professionals
and technical personnel from 134 listed professions in order to
attract as many well-educated Taiwanese as possible to open
businesses and lead a life on the mainland."<END QUOTE>

Reading through the two tracks of these policies, I cannot for the
life of me understand why anyone would think that either set of
policies would make any citizen of Taiwan want Taiwan to become a
province of China. How do the Chinese Communists benefit from this
nonsense? I'm always talking about the incredible stupidity of the
CCP thugs, and this looks like just one more example.

In fact, the published report seems to agree. According to the
report, these dual-track policies have produced counter-productive
consequences, including the following:

• Beijing's pressure in security, political and diplomatic areas
  has aroused backlash from the DPP, and even stimulated pro-independence
  figures to advocate more radical pro-independence initiatives.
  
  
• "Instead, the mainland's confrontational approaches in security,
  political and diplomatic frontiers would undermine the credibility and
  sincerity of Beijing's conciliatory gestures in economic, social and
  cultural areas. The strained cross-Strait relations will inevitably
  exacerbate the hostility and drive common Taiwanese to turn their back
  on the mainland China, which will consequently make it harder, instead
  of easier, to charm the public into favoring Beijing's ultimate goal
  of unifying the two sides peacefully."
  
  
• Beijing's hardline stance undermines its efforts to achieve
  reunification by "winning the hearts and minds of the Taiwan people."
  The enduring standoff has already strengthened and deepened civilian
  distrust and antagonism between the two societies.

I've said many times that the Chinese Communist Party thugs
consistently follow one incredibly stupid policy after another. The
most disastrous policies since WW II were the Great Leap Forward,
which killed 50 million innocent Chinese will destroying the economy
for decades, and the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which was so
horrific that the CCP is still pretending that it never happened.
Whether it's a policy regarding Hong Kong, the South China Sea, the
Uighurs in Xinjiang, or anything else, I've often said that I don't
know what the CCP will do, but I can guarantee that whatever they do,
they will make the situation worse.

In fact, even the Chinese Communists don't seriously believe that this
nonsense will make the Taiwanese want to become provincial citizens of
China. There is only one way that all this benefits the Chinese
Communists. According to analysts, referring to the massive
intrusions into Taiwan's airspace: "PLA drills this time are not a
warning, but a rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover."

In other words, the Chinese Communists are not trying to charm the
Taiwanese people. What they're actually doing is preparing to launch
a war -- against Taiwan, against Japan, and against the United States
-- and everything that the Chinese Communists are doing is to help
them prepare for those wars.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

• China vows countermeasures in response to U.S. high-ranking officials' Taiwan visits (Ecns, Beijing, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• China warns US on recent Taiwan moves (China Daily, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• PLA fighter jets cross ‘middle line’ of Taiwan Straits an hour before US official’s meeting with Tsai Ing-wen (Global Times, China, 10-Aug-2020)
  
• China threatens to 'wipe out' Taiwan president with war (Taiwan News, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• China denies existence of median line in Taiwan Strait (Taiwan News, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• Taiwan slams China's denial of median line as breaking status quo (Focus Taiwan, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• The Median Line in the Taiwan Strait: A Dangerous Loophole (Sentinel, Taiwan, 3-Apr-2019)
  
• Taipei Slams ‘Provocative’ Chinese Air Force Fighters Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line (Diplomat, 1-Apr-2019)
  
• Over The Line - The Implications Of China’S ADIZ Intrusions In Northeast Asia (Federation of American Scientists, FAS, PDF, 2020)
  
• Selective Engagement: Mainland China’s Dual-Track Taiwan Policy (Fudan University, Shanghai, 15-Oct-2019)
  
• Almost 40 Chinese warplanes breach Taiwan Strait median line; Taiwan President calls it a 'threat of force' (CNN, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• PLA warplanes featured in drills in Taiwan Straits ‘capable of seizing air superiority and command of sea’ (Global Times, Beijing, 20-Sep-2020)
  
• High-level U.S. visits to Taiwan annoy China – but did not cross the red line, says analyst (CNBC, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• China / Taiwan median line / Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin's Regular Press Conference on September 21, 2020 (China Foreign Ministry, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• Tsai pledges to defend ROC’s airspace (Taipei Times, 23-Sep-2020)
  
• PLA aircraft cross into Taiwan’s ADIZ (Taipei Times, 17-Sep-2020)
  
• US pushing surge in arms sales to ‘Fortress Taiwan’ (Taipei Times, 17-Sep-2020)
  
• Taiwan / China a threat to whole region: Tsai (Taipei Times, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• Taiwan Looks To Slam Chinese Navy Vessels With SLAM-ER Missiles Deployed On F-16 Jets (EurAsian Times, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• Taiwan has enough missiles to defend itself at present: MND (Focus Taiwan, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• China Ends ‘Median Line’ in the Taiwan Strait: The Start of a Crisis? (National Interest, 22-Sep-2020)

Related Articles:

• Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China (24-May-2020)
  
  
• US approves sophisticated weapons sales to Taiwan, despite China's fury (10-Jul-2019)
  
  
• Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China (21-Oct-2018)
  
  
• China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan (17-May-2018)
  
  
• US will sell submarine technology to Taiwan, as Japan launches first marine brigade since end of WW II (08-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China, median line, middle line,
Air defense identification zone, ADIZ, Wang Wenbin,
Federation of American Scientists, Japan, South Korea,
Democratic Progressive Party, DPP, Kuomintang, KMT

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe