Generational Dynamics World View

[Warren Dew]

(10-02-2020, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires

Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western
Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has
succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy.  It
has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or another
this empire will continue to lead the world, because only Democracy is
capable of governing empires.

The problem with this theory is that Eastern civilization was more advanced from the fall of the Roman Empire to the Renaissance.  Democracy is really only an advantage in the gunpowder age, when you win wars with large numbers of minimally trained troops that you only trust because they have a stake in your government.

That's going to change in the next century or so as war shifts to nuclear weapons.

[Bob Butler 54]

(10-07-2020, 08:26 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(10-02-2020, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires

Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western
Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has
succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy.  It
has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or another
this empire will continue to lead the world, because only Democracy is
capable of governing empires.

The problem with this theory is that Eastern civilization was more advanced from the fall of the Roman Empire to the Renaissance.  Democracy is really only an advantage in the gunpowder age, when you win wars with large numbers of minimally armed troops that you only trust because they have a stake in your government.

That's going to change in the next century or so as war shifts to nuclear weapons.

Training time was also a factor, as well as the amount of effort you had to put into agriculture to survive.  Eventually, you could free up a larger part of the population to serve in your army.  At that point, armed citizens started to develop rights.  The more the roundheads promised to the people, the more the cavaliers got in trouble.  Before that effect started developing, we were stuck for a long time in the Agricultural Age.

China...  They had quite a time of troubles from the Opium Wars through Mao's death.  Life was ugly.  Everybody who has a cultural memory of that time frame is going to be reluctant to embrace violence and revolution.  That is why the CCP remains in power.  The people have not tried to gain the power of democracy.  I have a feeling that it is a matter of time, but that time is still a ways off.

Not clear that anyone sees profit in nukes.  If you believe xenophobia and ideology alone drive wars, maybe a nuke war may start.  With the elites trying to make a profit it seems less likely.  Somewhere between the machine gun and the nukes, war became not cost effective for the leaders or the elites.  At that point wars among major powers became more rare, and when they did take place a defensive proxy insurgent conflict blocked colonial imperialism.  The dynamic has changed.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Oct-2020 World View: The US Constitution and Confucianism

(10-02-2020, 04:44 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > If one is to compare the United States to all the empires of the
> past, then the United States is now impressive influence, power,
> stability, and prosperity. The United States may not have be an
> empire in the sense of having a monarch claiming to be more than a
> king. Call it (at best) an Empire of Liberty. Its territorial
> expansion effectively ended about 120 years ago. It has a high
> win-loss record. Aggressive powers that have thought the Unite
> States soft and decadent find themselves facing an
> exhaust-and-kill strategy. If it finds its own weakness it tends
> to self-correct.

> The President of the United States is rarely around long enough to
> become a doddering old man or to develop the madness of absolute
> power. Competitve elections prove the right way to deal with
> politicians becoming too big for their breeches.

My research has led me to believe that a lot of the credit for the
impressive stability of the United States has to do with the
brilliance of the US Constitution. For my Iran book, I traced the
history of national constitutions, leading to Iran's Constitutional
Revolution in the 1900s decade, and I really began to grasp how
brilliant the US Constitution is. Thanks to the Constitution, the US
has survived multiple "constitutional crises," as well as the Civil
War and other wars, and is still a functioning constitutional
democracy.

In another message you refer to Trump as "despotic," which is the
usual idiotic silliness from people like you who hate the 63 million
Tea Partiers and Trump supporters. Trump has stayed well within the
lines of the US Constitution, including court decisions, so he isn't
"despotic" at all. But, thanks to the Constitution, he's survived the
huge Russia hoax, the special prosecutor hoax, the impeachment hoax,
and so forth. As he himself has pointed out, he must be the most
honest and effective politician in the history of the world to have
survived all that.

Just yesterday, the handwritten notes of the sleazy John Brennan were
released, proving that Obama was in on the illegal spying and hoaxes.
This is actually a big bombshell, but you wouldn't have a clue about
that, since CNN carefully avoids reporting news like that to people
like you, lest you get confused about whom to hate. Better for you to
stay completely in the dark.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/06/bre...operation/

So this year the Democrats are resorting to fascist antifa-blm
violence in cities across the country, threats to overwhelm the
election with mail-in ballots, threats to pack the Supreme Court, and
anything else they can do to destroy the Constitutional government
that has protected the loathsome Tea Partiers from the Democrats.

Look what's happening this week in Kyrgyzstan. One side sabotaged the
election, just as the Democrats are trying to do here, but
Kyrgyzstan's constitution doesn't have the checks and balances of the
US Constitution, and the government is in collapse, and the election
will have to be rerun. It's a great lesson.

The US Constitution has numerous checks and balances designed to make
sure that elections produce a result. These include the Electoral
College and various rules to be applied if there's no election result.
My point is that by January or February of next year, I expect that
the Constitutional process will produce a president to take office.
Maybe it will be Trump, maybe it will be Biden. But there will be a
president. That's what I mean by "impressive stability." There are
few, if any, other countries in the world that could say the same
thing.

(10-02-2020, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > ** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires

> Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western
> Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has
> succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy.
> It has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or
> another this empire will continue to lead the world, because only
> Democracy is capable of governing empires.

(10-07-2020, 08:26 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The problem with this theory is that Eastern civilization was more
> advanced from the fall of the Roman Empire to the Renaissance.
> Democracy is really only an advantage in the gunpowder age, when
> you win wars with large numbers of minimally armed troops that you
> only trust because they have a stake in your government.

> That's going to change in the next century or so as war shifts to
> nuclear weapons.

This is a new area of analysis for me, following on my research on
China and Vietnam. I've found it appalling that the CCP has made one
incredibly stupid decision after another since Mao came to power, and
you have to wonder why that keeps happening. But now I see the same
kind of stupidity taking place historically in Vietnam's Confucian
governments, and I realize that it's Confucianism that's a cancer that
causes the repeated destruction and self-destruction of these
governments.

The contrast is between the cancer of Confucianism and the brilliance
of the US Constitutions, with its system of checks and balances that
prevents things similar to the "Great Leap Forward" in America. I
used the word "Democracy" because the Chinese Communists themselves
use the word democracy as the ideological evil whose only purpose is
to destroy the CCP -- i.e., Chinese Confucianism. But there are so
many destructive things about Chinese Confucianism that a better
contrast will have to be found. What I need is a word that captures
the essence of the Constitution's system of checks and balances as a
contrast to Confucianism. The word "democracy" is close, but not
quite right.

[Bob Butler 54]

Agreed the US Constitution is pretty stable, but there are some leftover remnants of the slave compromises that need to be cleared. The electoral college, the senate, the amendment process all need to be looked at.

Agreed Brennan is sleazy.

I suspect the big advantage of the Constitution and Democracy is tugging power towards the people. The elites grabbing power and wealth rather than let it flow through the population is one of their big problems. It is more than just Confucianism. Problems develop in every autocratic regime. They are so tempted to skim a larger percentage off the top that they cannot compete. That doesn’t mean they can’t live really well on what they do skim off the top. Dictator or enabler are profitable gigs.

But as for the rest, your ideological bias shows up heavily in how you perceive motivations and results. I trust more the verdict of history than persuading an ideologue. Most of this stuff I will leave to others.

[Warren Dew]

(10-07-2020, 01:31 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The contrast is between the cancer of Confucianism and the brilliance
of the US Constitutions, with its system of checks and balances that
prevents things similar to the "Great Leap Forward" in America.  I
used the word "Democracy" because the Chinese Communists themselves
use the word democracy as the ideological evil whose only purpose is
to destroy the CCP -- i.e., Chinese Confucianism.  But there are so
many destructive things about Chinese Confucianism that a better
contrast will have to be found.  What I need is a word that captures
the essence of the Constitution's system of checks and balances as a
contrast to Confucianism.  The word "democracy" is close, but not
quite right.

I do agree that the US Constitution has been a big success.  It's been great at maintaining continuity through generational crises, which is pretty impressive.

Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though.  We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age.  My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea.

Arguing that the CCP is terrible because of Confucianism seems ironic to me, since Mao persecuted Confucians.  The CCP is more aligned with Legalism, which is the other major philosophical influence on Chinese history.  I would however agree that Confucianism did leave China vulnerable to external invasion at times.

[pbrower2a]

(10-08-2020, 12:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(10-07-2020, 01:31 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The contrast is between the cancer of Confucianism and the brilliance
of the US Constitutions, with its system of checks and balances that
prevents things similar to the "Great Leap Forward" in America.  I
used the word "Democracy" because the Chinese Communists themselves
use the word democracy as the ideological evil whose only purpose is
to destroy the CCP -- i.e., Chinese Confucianism.  But there are so
many destructive things about Chinese Confucianism that a better
contrast will have to be found.  What I need is a word that captures
the essence of the Constitution's system of checks and balances as a
contrast to Confucianism.  The word "democracy" is close, but not
quite right.

I do agree that the US Constitution has been a big success.  It's been great at maintaining continuity through generational crises, which is pretty impressive.

It will get us through the Trump maladministration and the COVID-19 plague.

Quote:Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though.  We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age.  My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea.

Can our Constitution survive a nuclear exchange? Probably not. What doesn't get nuked will be splintered into city states in the intrestices of the carnage and in larger areas  (let us say northern Wisconsin) that have no obvious targets. In the aftermath few will know the present as they know the past. The industrial basis of a modern society will have to be restarted from scratch. Some of those city states will become liberal republics and some will have various forms of despotism.

Quote:Arguing that the CCP is terrible because of Confucianism seems ironic to me, since Mao persecuted Confucians.  The CCP is more aligned with Legalism, which is the other major philosophical influence on Chinese history.  I would however agree that Confucianism did leave China vulnerable to external invasion at times.

It is difficult to escape the ancient heritage even if one disparages it.

[Bob Butler 54]

(10-08-2020, 12:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though.  We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age.  My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea.

It is OK to worry, but it is not profitable to get involved in a nuke war.  While a North Korea might talk a big game, Trump's boast a while back that he has a bigger button has some truth to it.  It might be a better tactic to yap than to actually do something.  As is, the primary results of yapping seems to be sanctions and famine.  It is not surprising North Korea has no imitators of their approach.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Oct-2020 World View: Democracies and useful idiots

Jeepdinger Wrote:> I think there isn't a word to describe the entirety of what we
> have as a Constitutional Republic. Perhaps "Republicanism" or
> "constitutional republicanism". As we are the only government in
> the world with this exact system, it is unique and I don't think
> we have a word for this. I'd love to learn that it exists.

> I just call it "Murica".

That's an interesting idea, but few people even know what a Republic
is, or that the US is a Republic (not a Democracy), or that the
Constitution requires each state to have a "Republican form of
government."

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> John, do you see the major economic problems coming before the
> start of whatever WWIII-type conflict? Or that the start of the
> war causes inflation, as noted by historian Niall Ferguson, as a
> usual case in the "search for inflation"?

A financial crisis can cause a war, and a war can trigger a financial
crisis. They can occur in either order.

It's possible that the war will begin with something huge -- a massive
Chinese missile attack or a massive deflationary financial crisis.

But in my opinion, the most likely way the war will start will be with
something small -- something in the Mideast, or one of China's 21
border conflicts, or a small nation or company unable to pay its
debts, triggering a chain reaction of bankruptcies.

FullMoon Wrote:> The nations of the world should "see each other as members of the
> same big family, pursue win-win cooperation, rise above
> ideological disputes, and avoid falling into the trap of a clash
> of civilizations," Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a recorded
> address to the UN recently. 2 weeks of sorties crossing into
> Taiwanese airspace...

Yeah this is the typical Communist charm offensive, or Hitler's "peace
in our time." The American press and most politicians always fall for
this stuff -- hence the phrase "useful idiot."

[David Horn]

(10-08-2020, 09:59 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(10-08-2020, 12:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though.  We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age.  My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea.

It is OK to worry, but it is not profitable to get involved in a nuke war.  While a North Korea might talk a big game, Trump's boast a while back that he has a bigger button has some truth to it.  It might be a better tactic to yap than to actually do something.  As is, the primary results of yapping seems to be sanctions and famine.  It is not surprising North Korea has no imitators of their approach.

Don't discount 'stupid' as a policy,  We've seen stupid many times before; QAnon is a prime example today.

[pbrower2a]

(10-09-2020, 09:03 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-08-2020, 09:59 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(10-08-2020, 12:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though.  We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age.  My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea.

It is OK to worry, but it is not profitable to get involved in a nuke war.  While a North Korea might talk a big game, Trump's boast a while back that he has a bigger button has some truth to it.  It might be a better tactic to yap than to actually do something.  As is, the primary results of yapping seems to be sanctions and famine.  It is not surprising North Korea has no imitators of their approach.

Don't discount 'stupid' as a policy,  We've seen stupid many times before; QAnon is a prime example today.

Likewise the absurd, failed plot against Governor Whitmer (D-Michigan).

A hint about conspiracies: most are harebrained plots. Just think of the superb movie Double Indemnity (the original from 1944, and definitely not the lame 1973 made-for-TV remake) to see (if participants have higher social-economic status than the usual conspirators) in one of the more common circumstances: a murder-for-hire lot in which one of the spouses seeks to dispose of an inconvenient spouse while collecting life-insurance proceeds. 

With the arguable exception of the July 20 plot against Satan Incarnate, conspirators are typically either underworld figures seeking some easy money or... well some clique of dimwits. The bigger the conspiracy, the more about it can go wrong, such as infiltration, people deciding to break from it to save themselves a prison term or capital punishment, or an unraveling after the fact.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Oct-20 World View -- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
  
• Azerbaijan's objectives
  

****
**** Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
****


Topographical map of the Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh (Al-Jazeera)

A temporary truce between Armenia and Azerbaijan was mostly successful
on Saturday, although each side accused the other of violating the
ceasefire.

The ceasefire was mediated by Russia, which applied heavy pressure to
both sides to accept the agreement. It's being described as a
humanitarian ceasefire, to permit the two sides to exchange prisoners,
and for the Red Cross to remove dead bodies. Also, it will give both
sides time to reload and resupply their weapons in preparation for the
next round of fighting.

The two countries are fighting over control of the Nagorno-Karabakh
("highland Karabakh") province and seven adjacent regions within
Azerbaijan territory that are populated and governed by Armenians.
The two countries used to be member states of the Soviet Union, which
collapsed in 1991. A major war was fought between the two countries,
and it ended in stalemate in 1994, under pressure from Russia.

There have been occasional outbursts of fighting since then, but the
fighting that began on September 27 of this year is the worst so far
since 1994.

Armenia says that its objective is that Nagorno-Karabakh should be
recognized internationally as an independent state, Artsakh. That
isn't going to happen.

****
**** Azerbaijan's objectives
****

Azerbaijan says that its objective is to gain full control of the
enclave, as it is Azerbaijan territory. According to a number of tv
analysts, Azerbaijan officials feel that this objective is within its
grasp. Several of the areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh have already
been captured by the Azeri army.

In 1994, when Russia mediated a ceasefire, Armenia was much more
militarily powerful than Azerbaijan, and was able to take over
Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the situations are reversed today, and
Azerbaijan is more powerful militarily, according to these analysts.
Furthermore, the international community is supportive of Azerbaijan
since Nagorno-Karabakh is officially Azeri territory.

Turkey is supporting its Turkic brother Azerbaijan, and has promised
to provide military aid if necessary. Furthermore, Turkey has little
concern about good relations with Armenia, having been accused of
genocide against the Armenian people in 1915.

Russia is close to its Eastern Orthodox Christian sister Armenia, and
has a military base in Armenia, but wants to maintain good relations
with both countries. Russia is applying maximum pressure to both
sides to keep the ceasefire going, but it seems unlikely that the
ceasefire will continue much longer.

One analyst suggested that there's "horse-trading" going on. For
example, Russia may convince Armenia to give up Nagorno-Karabakh in
return for Turkey pulling its forces out of Syria. That's an
interesting idea -- then the Azeris could massacre the Armenians in
Nagorno-Karabakh in revenge for the massacre of Azeris by Armenians in
the 1990s, and Syria's president Bashar al-Assad could continue with
its genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Arabs in Syria's Idlib
province. That would be an explosive development, so I do not believe
that this particular version of "horse-trading" is likely.

Meanwhile, there are other things going on in the world. I'm working
every spare minute to finish up my book on Vietnam. Kyrgyzstan's
government has collapsed, and people are rioting, because of alleged
election fraud. China is stepping up warplane flights threatening
Taiwan, is demanding that US ships stop entering international waters
in the South China Sea illegally claimed by China, and is arresting
anyone in Hong Kong who dares to criticize Beijing. The United States
is locked into an election campaign circus, and Americans are
generally completely oblivious to anything going on in the world. And
many countries are trying to avoid more lockdowns, as cases of Wuhan
Coronavirus have been surging in many countries, especially in Europe.
And that's the way it is.

Sources:

• Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia and Azerbaijan shaky ceasefire in force (BBC, 10-Oct-2020)
  
• Armenia, Azerbaijan accuse each other of violating ceasefire (Al-Jazeera, 10-Oct-2020)
  
• Fresh Azerbaijani shelling shatters peace after fragile ceasefire agreed (Guardian, London, 10-Oct-2020)
  
• Live Updates: Two Blasts Heard in Nagorno-Karabakh Capital Despite Ceasefire Agreement (Sputnik News, Moscow, 10-Oct-2020)
  
• Armenia, Azerbaijan Trade Accusations Over Karabakh Ceasefire (Moscow Times, 10-Oct-2020)

Related Articles:

• Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh (28-Sep-2020)
  
  
• Military clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh (17-Jul-2020)
  
  
• Concerns grow that Azerbaijan plans Armenia invasion from Nakhchivan enclave (11-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region (03-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Azerbaijan becomes the hub of the Caspian Trade Corridor, part of the new Silk Road (21-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency (07-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  

[b]KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey, Russia, Artsakh, Syria

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[Bob Butler 54]

It seems to play out the usual themes.  One small tribal group tries to maintain control over another using superior force.  The larger group they are allied with tries to maintain the peace.  Is this what crisis wars have come to?  If you hate another group enough, it seems a big deal to you?  Eventually that hate becomes stronger than your memory of what happened last time?  If you are a larger elite you have other economic fish to fry mixed with a fear of nukes, and you would rather not bother with the squabbling?

Respecting minorities is the idea on the principled side, but there are enough people clinging to the old tribal prejudices that you can hardly call this principle universal.  The more rural the area, the more likely the tribal mode of thinking is to get out of hand.

For the US it is a hatred of minorities, and attempt to keep your tribal ‘superiority’ up.  For others, the government is still officially making war on the other ethnic group.  The pattern of tribe and hostility is left over from the Agricultural Age when it used to be cost effective.  We are still not rid of it yet.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Oct-2020 World View: Response to Azerbaijan-Armenia article

I received a message from an Azerbaijan official, in response to
today's article on the ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia:

Quote:> "This sentence is the most offensive and ridiculous of
> all, showing your turcophobia: "then the Azeris could commit
> genocide and ethnic cleansing on the Armenians in
> Nagorno-Karabakh, and".

> The only side that conducted a genocide was the Armenians against
> Azerbaijanis, such as in 1992 when they committed the Khojaly
> Massacre."

My response:

Quote:> "You're right that the sentence you've referenced is
> very poorly written, and does not convey the meaning that I
> intended. I've changed the sentence on my web site. However,
> what I wrote has absolutely nothing to do with "turcophobia". It
> has to do with what I've come to view as the normal behavior of
> all human beings.

> As you may know, I've been doing this for almost 20 years. I've
> posted over 6,000 articles on my web site with analyses of
> hundreds of countries at all times in history. What I have seen
> is that people of every ethnic group, every religion, every skin
> color, etc., commit genocide, ethnic cleansing, beatings,
> atrocities, enslavement, rapes, torture, and massacres of other
> people. These acts are not aberrations. They are standard human
> behavior, part of the human DNA.

> As I've written many times, for my whole life I've heard people
> refer to the Nazi Holocaust and say "Never again!" And yet, there
> are similar Holocausts going on today in China, Myanmar, Syria,
> DRC, Cameroon, and so forth. And nobody even cares.

> So the sentence you're mentioning was just supposed to convey that
> the Azeris' actions would be standard human behavior.

> Let me explain what I mean.

> Suppose you had written to me as follows: "Mr. Xenakis, I'm deeply
> offended that you think we would do that to the Armenians. It's
> true that we've had our differences in the past, but those have
> all been resolved, and now the Azeris love the Armenians and would
> never hurt them." Lol! You didn't say anything like that, but if
> you had, I would have thought, "Wow! I must be completely wrong."

> Instead you referenced the horrific Khojaly Massacre, for which
> Azeris want revenge. Maybe it won't happen next week or next
> year, but one day the Azeris will act to get revenge for the
> Khojaly Massacre.

> And that's not all. Let's do the math. One day the Azeris will
> regain control of Karabakh, and the hundreds of thousands of
> Azeris that lost their homes in the 1990s will want to return.
> Question: How will that take place? Answer: Genocide and ethnic
> cleansing. That's standard human behavior, part of the human DNA.

> So I apologize for the poor wording of the original sentence, and
> I hope that the revised sentence on my web site is ok with you.

> Thanks for your message, and I hope you're doing well."

Here's his response to me:

Quote:> "Dear Mr Xenakis,

> Thank you for making the change on your website.

> In terms of how would the almost 1 million Azerbaijani
> refugees/IDPs return - it would not require any genocide or ethnic
> cleansing, sir. Armenia has occupied 16% of Azerbaijani, which
> included not just the Nagorno-Karabakh region, but 7 districts
> adjacent to it. Those 7 districts were about 99% Azerbaijani. They
> had about 600,000 people living there. Another 240,000 lived in
> Armenia itself -- they won't be able to return there and would not
> want to risk their lives to do that anyway. So that means there
> will be about 50,000 Azerbaijanis from the NK itself, with their
> kids, who will return -- to their homes and their land
> plots. Armenians have their homes there and Azerbaijanis have
> theirs. So there is no need for ethnic cleansing.

> Also, please consider the fact that Armenia has "somehow" become
> 99% monoethnic, whilst Azerbaijan is multiethnic and
> multireligious. Baku, one city, has more Christians living in it
> than all Armenians in all illegally occupied territories. Please
> think about it. There are more Jews in Azerbaijan than in Armenia
> and Georgia combined. I'm not saying Azerbaijanis are angels, but
> I'm saying that it is not the Azerbaijanis that are demons here,
> and an objective look at the facts quickly reveals where people of
> different faiths and ethnic background live more comfortably, and
> who is the victim and who is the aggressor at least for the past
> decades.

> If anyone wants to discuss more ancient history -- would gladly do
> that, but that's hardly productive."

The last sentence made me chuckle. Generational Dynamics is all about
ancient history, and how it keeps getting repeated today.

At any rate, it's clear that this conflict is very far from being
over.

[Warren Dew]

Interesting that an Azeri official is reading your work.  I would have thought he would have appreciated your characterization of the Armenian behavior after occupying Nagorno-Karabach!  You owe them a full generational analysis regarding Armenia and Azerbaijan now.

I love his statement that 50,000 Azerbaijanis will return and reoccupy their homes peacefully.  I guess he's a diplomat who is trained to pretend that none of those homes have been destroyed, occupied by others, or allowed to fall into disrepair.

Out of curiosity, what was the revised sentence?

[John J. Xenakis]

The revised sentence is: "then the Azeris could massacre the Armenians
in Nagorno-Karabakh in revenge for the massacre of Azeris by Armenians
in the 1990s..."

[Warren Dew]

John, I wonder what your thoughts are on this little tiff between South Korea and the US:

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/...97513.html

Considering that political alignments can change rapidly in a crisis period, what does Generational Dynamics say about the natural alignments in this region?

[pbrower2a]

North Korea is an anathema to the conser4vative, pro-business Right in America as ever, and it has never been able to win much support among America's extreme Left. Liberals hate it. Most Americans would prefer that the Empire of Northern Korea die as a political system. Whether that results in a veritable satellite of the PRC or gets absorbed into a democratic, free-enterprise, nuke-free, non-aligned Korean Republic, its system is doomed. Under erratic leadership it is likely to do something incredibly stupid. Just think of Iraq under the criminal Saddam Hussein. Saddam Hussein may have been evil, but not crazy.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-Oct-2020 World View: Korean alignments

(10-13-2020, 01:28 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > John, I wonder what your thoughts are on this little tiff between
> South Korea and the US:

> https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/...97513.html

> Considering that political alignments can change rapidly in a
> crisis period, what does Generational Dynamics say about the
> natural alignments in this region?

I've had a hard time trying to "read" the Korean people. They like
Americans (doesn't everyone?), they're forced to ally with the
Japanese even though they hate the Japanese, and they hate the Chinese
(doesn't everyone?), but their comfort zone is total vassal dependency
on China.

On top of that, the country is split in two, and the North Koreans are
actively preparing to invade the South at a time of their choosing.

The South Koreans like Americans, but don't like the fact that they
depend on America for defense. They particularly dislike it when an
American official tells them what to do, which is the sort of thing
that American officials do all the time.

My guess is that the outburst by Korean Ambassador Lee Soo-hyuck was a
response to some American comments on how the South Koreans should
change their policies. That could really piss them off.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Oct-2020 World View: Notes from the Vietnam war

As I've mentioned several times, I've been spending every spare minute
writing a book on the history of Vietnam, following up on my books on
the history of China and Japan and the history of Iran and Islam. It
will be very nice to add one more book to my collection of books in
the "Generational Theory Book Series."

The history of Vietnam is very complex, much more complex than the
history of China, but I've now pretty much completed the history
narrative up to the "American-Vietnam war," and like most things, the
public understanding of this war is almost 100% wrong. Most people
view this as a war between America and Ho Chi Minh's North Vietnam.
Har, har, har.

So I now look at it as three separate wars:

• First Indochina War (November 1946 to August 1954). This was
  a war between Ho Chi Minh's Viet Minh and France (the French
  colonizers). It ended with France's humiliating defeat, after which
  America began to fill the vacuum with "advisors."
  
  
• Second Indochina War (1959-1975). This what Americans usually
  refer to as "the Vietnam War." It was actually a war between North and
  South Vietnam. China was supporting North Vietnam and the US was
  supporting South Vietnam, but the only real purpose of China and the
  US was to serve as useful idiots for the North and South Vietnamese.
  To a lesser extent, the Soviets also served as useful idiots.
  
  
• Vietnam-Cambodia-China war (1975-1989). Of the three wars, this
  was the most consequential. Vietnam conducted mass slaughter of South
  Vietnamese "enemies." Vietnam committed genocide of groups in Laos.
  Pol Pot in Cambodia slaughtered millions of people in one of the 20th
  century's greatest genocides, leading to war between Vietnam and
  Cambodia. China wanted to support its ally Cambodia, but was hampered
  because they don't have a common border. Hanoi confiscated property
  of ethnic Chinese living in Vietnam, because their loyalty to Hanoi
  was questioned. China invaded Vietnam to teach Vietnam a lesson for
  being insufficiently grateful for Chinese support against the
  Americans during the previous war, and because China wanted to
  reestablish Vietnam's vassal relationship to China which held prior to
  French colonization. China failed to do that, and once again, the
  Soviets were useful idiots.

With regard to the second of these, the role of the United States was
total farce. The South Vietnam president Ngo Dinh Diem wanted to
implement a plan called "Strategic Hamlets" that would move the South
Vietnamese civilians into fortified areas, and protect them from
terrorist attacks by the Viet Cong. Diem depended on the US for
weapons and logistics. President John Kennedy supplied the weapons,
but his chief adviser William Averell Harriman hated Diem, and did
many things to sabotage the whole project. On November 1, 1963,
Harriman succeeded in getting Diem ousted, and on November 2, Diem was
assassinated.

Ho Chi Minh believed that Diem was "one of the strongest people
resisting ... Communism," and was quoted as saying, "I can scarcely
believe the Americans would be so stupid."

It turned out later that there was another problem. The South
Vietnamese general in charge of the Strategic Hamlet program was
Albert Pham Ngoc Thao, who turns out to be a traitor who was
sabotaging the program and feeding information to Ho Chi Minh. He was
discovered and executed in 1965.

The Vietnam war got much worse after Diem's assassination.

More to follow.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

[David Horn]

(10-16-2020, 08:54 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 16-Oct-2020 World View: Notes from the Vietnam war

As I've mentioned several times, I've been spending every spare minute
writing a book on the history of Vietnam, following up on my books on
the history of China and Japan and the history of Iran and Islam.  It
will be very nice to add one more book to my collection of books in
the "Generational Theory Book Series."

The history of Vietnam is very complex, much more complex than the
history of China, but I've now pretty much completed the history
narrative up to the "American-Vietnam war," and like most things, the
public understanding of this war is almost 100% wrong.  Most people
view this as a war between America and Ho Chi Minh's North Vietnam.
Har, har, har.

So I now look at it as three separate wars:

• First Indochina War (November 1946 to August 1954).  This was
  a war between Ho Chi Minh's Viet Minh and France (the French
  colonizers).  It ended with France's humiliating defeat, after which
  America began to fill the vacuum with "advisors."
  
  
• Second Indochina War (1959-1975).  This what Americans usually
  refer to as "the Vietnam War." It was actually a war between North and
  South Vietnam.  China was supporting North Vietnam and the US was
  supporting South Vietnam, but the only real purpose of China and the
  US was to serve as useful idiots for the North and South Vietnamese.
  To a lesser extent, the Soviets also served as useful idiots.
  
  
• Vietnam-Cambodia-China war (1975-1989).  Of the three wars, this
  was the most consequential.  Vietnam conducted mass slaughter of South
  Vietnamese "enemies."  Vietnam committed genocide of groups in Laos.
  Pol Pot in Cambodia slaughtered millions of people in one of the 20th
  century's greatest genocides, leading to war between Vietnam and
  Cambodia.  China wanted to support its ally Cambodia, but was hampered
  because they don't have a common border.  Hanoi confiscated property
  of ethnic Chinese living in Vietnam, because their loyalty to Hanoi
  was questioned.  China invaded Vietnam to teach Vietnam a lesson for
  being insufficiently grateful for Chinese support against the
  Americans during the previous war, and because China wanted to
  reestablish Vietnam's vassal relationship to China which held prior to
  French colonization.  China failed to do that, and once again, the
  Soviets were useful idiots.
  

With regard to the second of these, the role of the United States was
total farce.  The South Vietnam president Ngo Dinh Diem wanted to
implement a plan called "Strategic Hamlets" that would move the South
Vietnamese civilians into fortified areas, and protect them from
terrorist attacks by the Viet Cong.  Diem depended on the US for
weapons and logistics.  President John Kennedy supplied the weapons,
but his chief adviser William Averell Harriman hated Diem, and did
many things to sabotage the whole project.  On November 1, 1963,
Harriman succeeded in getting Diem ousted, and on November 2, Diem was
assassinated.

Ho Chi Minh believed that Diem was "one of the strongest people
resisting ... Communism," and was quoted as saying, "I can scarcely
believe the Americans would be so stupid."

It turned out later that there was another problem.  The South
Vietnamese general in charge of the Strategic Hamlet program was
Albert Pham Ngoc Thao, who turns out to be a traitor who was
sabotaging the program and feeding information to Ho Chi Minh.  He was
discovered and executed in 1965.

The Vietnam war got much worse after Diem's assassination.

More to follow.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

Even this sketchy overview is seriously flawed.  Ignoring the Viet Minh as OSS clients during WW-II is particularly irritating, since we guaranteed them our support for decolonization after the war.  

Did you actually look into this, or just write your personal views in long form?