Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

Gallup -- 56% believe that Donald Trump does not deserve re-election; 43% believe that he does.

Quote:WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The majority of U.S. registered voters, 56%, believe President Donald Trump does not deserve to be reelected, while 43% say he does. Voters are even less likely to think "most members of Congress" deserve reelection (29%), although six in 10 say their own House member does.

These data are from a Sept. 30-Oct. 15, 2020, Gallup poll.

The percentage of voters who say Trump deserves reelection to a second term is down seven percentage points from Gallup's previous measure in January -- a much different time in Trump's presidency, when confidence in the U.S. economy was high, the Senate was preparing to vote to keep Trump in office during his impeachment trial, and only a few cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed in the U.S.

The percentage of voters who currently say Trump deserves to be reelected matches his latest overall job approval rating from the same poll. Gallup's previous measures of Trump's reelection deservedness were each within three points of his approval rating, and the significance to reelection is clear. As Gallup reported in May: "Historically, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost."

As would be expected, nearly all Republicans (93%) say the president deserves to be reelected, while few Democrats (3%) agree. Among independents, 36% say Trump deserves reelection and 61% say he does not.

House Representatives Viewed as More Deserving in Presidential Election Years
Six in 10 registered voters say their own district's House representative deserves to be reelected -- similar to what Gallup found in the recent presidential election years of 2012 (59%), 2008 (59%) and 2004 (63%).

Since 2006, voters have been more likely to support the reelection of their own member of Congress in presidential election years (59%, on average) than in midterm elections (52%). This aligns with the more mercurial nature of midterm elections -- which, particularly recently, have been wave elections for the president's opposition party.

Voters are much less likely to view "most members of Congress" as deserving of reelection as they are their own district's member. The current 29% saying most members deserve another term is not the lowest final preelection reading Gallup has found. Still, from a longer-term perspective, voters have become less likely to view most members as deserving of reelection over time -- paralleling Congress' sinking approval ratings.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/322340/vote...yndication

[pbrower2a]

How the States 'fall' (include independent-voting districts):

(read down for an increase for Biden and up for an increase for Trump)

Third-party and independent nominees (as well as such luminaries as "Jesus Christ", "Santa Claus", "Darth Vader", and utter gibberish or disqualified persons are included)

000 DC 003
003 MA 014
014 HI 018
018 VT 021
021 MD 031
031 CA 086
086 NY 115
115 RI 119
119 DE 122
122 WA 134
134 ME1 135
135 CT 142
142 NJ 156
156 IL 176
176 OR 183
183 NM 188
188 VA 201
201 ME* 203
---above this level Biden is expected to get 55% or more of the binary share of the vote--
203 CO 211
211 NH 215
---above this level Biden is expected to win at least a 10% margin --
---below this level Biden is unlikely to get a margin greater than 8%
215 MI 231
231 NV 237
237 MN 247
237 WI 257
--above this level Biden is likely to get a margin greater than 7%
257 PA 277 TIPPING POINT
---above this level Biden wins by at least 6%
277 NE2 278
---above this level Biden wins by at least 4% (usual margin of error)---
278 FL 307
---above this level Biden wins by 3%---
307 NC 322
--above this level Biden wins by 2%---
322 AZ 333
333 ME2 334
---likely borderline between Biden and Trump wins---
334 GA 350
350 IA 356
356 OH 374
--- above this Trump wins by less than 1%; below this Trump wins by at least 2%
374 TX 412
--above this line Trump wins by less than 2.5%; below this line Trump wins by at least 7%
412 AK 416
416 SC 425
425 MO 435 (Trump wins by 8%)
---below this line Trump wins by at least 10%---
435 MT 438
438 IN 449
---below this line Trump wins at least 55% of the binary vote and a margin of at least 11% --
449 KS 455
455 NE1 456
456 MS 462
462 UT 468
---below this level Trump wins by at least 15%---
469 LA 477
477 TN 488
488 NE* 490
490 SD 493
493 AL 502
502 KY 510 (Biden gets 40% of the vote)
510 AR 516
--below this level Trump gets over 60% of the vote)
516 ID 520
520 ND 523
523 OK 530
530 WV 533 (gotta fudge somewhere)
533 WY 536
536 NE3 537

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/

Based on composites of polls

[Eric the Green]

Oct.22, 9 AM EDT, edited 5 PM Oct 23
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
A slight decline into fascism continues, although Biden's support may be steady enough to continue. Trump is trying to use the Hunter Biden scandal and continue to make false claims about the "recovery" and all their "efforts" to control a virus which continues to get worse. Trump's lies that Biden oversaw a slow recovery covers up the fact that the Republicans themselves slowed it down in order to make Obama a one-term president by stopping the stimulus and firing government workers after the Tea Party takeover. The debate tonight may be crucial. Biden needs not only to win, but win decisively to counteract voter suppression and lawsuits which may come before his new Barrett kangeroo Court. Opinions are my own

National Biden +9.7

Alaska Trump +5.7
Arizona Biden +3.2
Florida Biden +3.3
Georgia Biden +1
Indiana Trump +10.2
Iowa Biden +1.3
Kansas Trump +8.9
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.2
Michigan Biden +7.6
Minnesota Biden +7.9
Missouri Trump +6.4
Montana Trump +7.7
Nevada Biden +6.5
New Hampshire Biden +11.4
North Carolina Biden +2.9
Ohio Trump +1
Pennsylvania Biden +6.1
South Carolina Trump +7.1
Texas Trump +0.5
Wisconsin Biden +6.5



The heart of Dixie and Appalachia remains confederate, while the west coast and northeast coast remain solidly-blue "American Union." There are cracks and fissures in the redneck strength in the interior west, while the northern-midwest blue wall is insecurely being rebuilt. Blue=Democratic, Red=Republican, Gray=tossup, in segments of 6% points from gray 3%+ or - to solid colors. Of course gray was the former confederate color; today it is red. Map from 270towin, data from fivethirtyeight.

[pbrower2a]

This is probably my last map of approval and disapproval numbers before the election:


https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...oomIn=true
[/quote]

This may be my last approval/disapproval map before the election. 




Trump approval 51-53%
Trump approval net 42% or less positive but under 50%
exact tie or net approval negative but under 50% white
disapproval 50-52%
disapproval 53 or 54%
disapproval 55% or higher

Trump will lose every state in red or maroon. Pink is iffy. There are no surprises in states in gray; they will vote as in 2016, if probably not as strongly for Trump. Disapproval means giving up hope in this President.

I hope that I am not simply speaking for myself, but Americans seem to have tired of Donald Trump and on the whole are ready for change.

[Eric the Green]

Here is Howe's description from his website. He gives credit to a four-phase model of social change devised by the famous sociologist Talcott Parsons, who hypothesized that society moves into a new phase every time the availability or demand for social order rises or falls. I don't know his work.
https://www.lifecourse.com/about/method/...nings.html

Quote:Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists die, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

In Parsons’ terms, a Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is low, but the demand for such order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.

I just marvel after watching the debate how closely this matches where we are, with Biden as the agent who seeks to restore the social order and respond to the threats to the nation's very survival. Biden says this election is a decision of what kind of country we want to be, and offers solutions that require community purpose. Classic Xer would call it collectivism. And there was Trump, the very embodiment of the social disorder that threatens the nation, defending completely his policies of not dealing with our problems and allowing them to fester and destroy us. All this means we are surely not near the end of this 4th turning. Much strife and struggle remains bringing down the Republican walls that block the 4th turning's agenda, and work to lay the foundations for the new social order we will take for granted once the first turning starts around 2029.

Then Ivanka or Spencer Cox can win the presidency, and it won't matter much more than it did when Ike was elected. But someone besides Kamala Harris must enter the breach for the Democrats in 2024 or it will all come crashing down before it starts. Tom Cotton has a stronger horoscope score in the new system too.

[pbrower2a]

(10-22-2020, 11:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Here is Howe's description from his website. He gives credit to a four-phase model of social change devised by the famous sociologist Talcott Parsons, who hypothesized that society moves into a new phase every time the availability or demand for social order rises or falls. I don't know his work.
https://www.lifecourse.com/about/method/...nings.html

Quote:Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists die, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

In Parsons’ terms, a Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is low, but the demand for such order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.

I just marvel after watching the debate how closely this matches where we are, with Biden as the agent who seeks to restore the social order and respond to the threats to the nation's very survival. Biden says this election is a decision of what kind of country we want to be, and offers solutions that require community purpose. Classic Xer would call it collectivism. And there was Trump, the very embodiment of the social disorder that threatens the nation, defending completely his policies of not dealing with our problems and allowing them to fester and destroy us. All this means we are surely not near the end of this 4th turning. Much strife and struggle remains bringing down the Republican walls the block the 4th turning's agenda, and work to lay the foundations for the new social order we will take for granted once the first turning starts around 2029.

Then Ivanka or Spencer Cox can win the presidency, and it won't matter much more than it did when Ike was elected. But someone besides Kamala Harris must enter the breach for the Democrats in 2024 or it will all come crashing down before it starts. Tom Cotton has a stronger horoscope score in the new system too.

What one person wants greatly one may not get, but a society as a whole that does not have perverse means of achieving its ends (the extreme example of a society having "perverse means" is of course Nazi Germany, and this time there is no Great Power as horrible as the Third Reich)... Trump is certainly a political pervert, and it may still be premature to decide whether he has any relevance to American life after January 21... 

We want order, and Trump has offered chaos that we never thought possible. He is the first President to egg on the fascistic Right of racists and even traitors (the Michigan Plot), and it is safe to assume that those parts of the GOP that have a stake in a viable Establishment have decided to join the Democratic Big Tent... at least for now. Trump's idea of order is to centralize authority, especially in federal law enforcement, while making it cruel and unaccountable.

Americans are for law and order on the whole. Trump may deride Black Lives Matter (BLM),  but BLM has a legitimate and narrow objective of making police less trigger-happy around black people.  So we make our police more accountable in the presence of black people. That does not make life easier for outright criminals of any kind.

Some powerful people have sought to institutionalize the depravities of the 3T (mostly the neoliberal era) in a New Order of extreme inequality of opportunity and economic result, something that created the rift that made the American Civil War inevitable. This time it would lead to an authoritarian order in which 95% of the people are responsible to a tiny minority of about 2% of the people, almost certainly a hereditary elite itself responsible to nobody. Orders like that tend to implode, as did Imperial Russia. 

For now I cannot predict the future of the Republican Party. The Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump, make no mistake, are conservative Republicans of the old style. Most are out of power, typically having retired from high public office. Do they take back the GOP and drive out the Trump Cult, or does the Trump Cult establish a firm hold on the GOP? With the former (although the politicians would likely be on the whole new and  'clean') and we return to partisan norms of a time other than this one. Or do the conservative dissidents from Trump find their way into the Democratic Party in some 1T equivalent of an Era of Good Feeling, only for the Big Tent to prove unwieldy?

Note well that there is much conservative thought within the Democratic Party, with people who do not want pervasive change in economic relationships. Model minorities are typically quite conservative on cultural matters, and they do not want their economic position to come under attack from proletarian revolution. 

Much will be clearer by the middle of November than is now.

[pbrower2a]

Early voting results, one state at a time:

ARIZONA



https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23...tes-431363 (Note: this link goes to the whole article).

Quote:Total ballots cast of 4 million registered voters: 1.1 million for which Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 58 percent. Trump: 42 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 75,000. Biden: 57 percent. Trump: 43

2020 Ballots cast by sporadic voters (registered in 2016 and 2018 but didn’t vote): 41,000. Biden: 54 percent. Trump: 46 percent.

Democratic takeaway: Polls show Biden leading as well as Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly. Compared with 2016, Democratic returns are 74 percent higher while Republican returns are up 29 percent.

1. Joe Biden isn't going to win Arizona by a margin anywhere near this. I expect about a 52-47 win for Biden based on polls that I have already seen, and polling has been steady in results in Arizona for a long time. 
2. Predicting that newly-registered voters are more likely to be D (young voters or California transplants) the gap among those alredy voting is already huge. Representative, perhaps. 
3. That Republican returns are up 29% indicates that Trump will get fewer of the votes that he needs on Election Day. The "29% up" consists of votes that he cannot get a second time. The Trump campaign really does have a get-out-the-vote drive this time... it is simply inadequate.

[Bob Butler 54]

I watched about an hour of the debate before giving up on it. While NBC was praiseful of the moderator, she did not seem to be using the mute button. Towards the end Trump began to do talk over some.

It seemed Trump relied heavily on lying. He was chasing the Earth 2 vote, those that still bought into the false reality. I suppose if you bought into the false reality...

[pbrower2a]

FLORIDA

Total ballots cast of 14.4 million registered voters: 4.2 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 56 percent. Trump: 44 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 422,000. Biden: 55 percent. Trump: 45 percent.

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 174,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump: 47 percent.

Republican takeaway: The Republican Party of Florida has 470,000 more high-propensity voters than Democrats who have yet to vote. The Democratic Party also traditionally has more sporadic and newly registered voters as a share of their electorate, so the numbers aren’t out of whack.

Tim Baker ®, Data Targeting: “The absentee and early voting numbers for Democrats are seemingly a reflection of their most reliable voters shifting voting methods and ultimately a cannibalization of voting method and not necessarily a turnout indicator at this stage. We are encouraged by the increase in Republican voter registration and the enthusiasm we are seeing across the state."

Democratic takeaway: No party has ever jumped to a lead like Democrats have in pre-Election Day voting. Factoring in independents, who are largely composed of No Party Affiliation, Biden appears to be winning the swing voters of the swing state.

Kevin Cate (D), CATECOMM: “The Republican spin on turnout and the enthusiasm gap sounds a lot like the Democratic spin in cycles where Democrats lost the top of the ticket. If you cut through it, Democratic turnout is unprecedentedly quick, large, and new — and so is No Party Affiliation turnout.”

Comment:

1. Even more than with Arizona, I see not path to a Trump re-election that does not include Florida. Florida is Florida, and it is ordinarily close in any election. It will be so this time.
2. Republicans have a get-out-the-vote campaign, and it isn't turning out numbers adequate to offset D gains.
3. Trump losses of 2016 + FL is 261 electoral votes for Biden. The only state that Trump lost by less than 10% that he could lose without losing the election is Iowa... and Trump is not losing Iwa without losing Wisconsin.

[Eric the Green]

Sounds like a 30,000 vote lead for Democrats in FL. 504,000 minus 470,000. Not very impressive, but I guess that depends on what the Republican guy says. If independent voters are breaking for Biden, as they are nationally, that could swing the state to Biden.

[Classic-Xer]

(10-22-2020, 11:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Here is Howe's description from his website. He gives credit to a four-phase model of social change devised by the famous sociologist Talcott Parsons, who hypothesized that society moves into a new phase every time the availability or demand for social order rises or falls. I don't know his work.
https://www.lifecourse.com/about/method/...nings.html

Quote:Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists die, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

In Parsons’ terms, a Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is low, but the demand for such order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.

I just marvel after watching the debate how closely this matches where we are, with Biden as the agent who seeks to restore the social order and respond to the threats to the nation's very survival. Biden says this election is a decision of what kind of country we want to be, and offers solutions that require community purpose. Classic Xer would call it collectivism. And there was Trump, the very embodiment of the social disorder that threatens the nation, defending completely his policies of not dealing with our problems and allowing them to fester and destroy us. All this means we are surely not near the end of this 4th turning. Much strife and struggle remains bringing down the Republican walls that block the 4th turning's agenda, and work to lay the foundations for the new social order we will take for granted once the first turning starts around 2029.

Then Ivanka or Spencer Cox can win the presidency, and it won't matter much more than it did when Ike was elected. But someone besides Kamala Harris must enter the breach for the Democrats in 2024 or it will all come crashing down before it starts. Tom Cotton has a stronger horoscope score in the new system too.

Dude, Kamala has already been picked to replace Bumbling Biden. So, you're stuck her whether you like it or not and whatever the outcome of her taking office.  Honestly, I have no love or feelings/sense of obligation towards you, the Democratic party or the remainder of the GOP at this point and it's nice to see that all of you are on the same side with each other these days. The Washington elite have a much lower approval percentage/rating than Trump today. So, how long is it going to be until you and them are no longer viewed as American by the majority of Americans? Of coarse, the difference will be that we will be full blown 4T and the institutions that you're relying on now will be at war with themselves as well as finding themselves at war with us at that point. We are on same page as far as where we are at Eric. We are just going by different signs/ guides at this point. You can have socialism and all the shit that comes with it all to yourselves. I'm sure that your people are going to give us the justification that we are all waiting for right now.

[Classic-Xer]

(10-23-2020, 07:56 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I watched about an hour of the debate before giving up on it.  While NBC was praiseful of the moderator, she did not seem to be using the mute button.  Towards the end Trump began to do talk over some.

It seemed Trump relied heavily on lying.  He was chasing the Earth 2 vote, those that still bought into the false reality.  I suppose if you bought into the false reality...

I know we don't see things the same way but Biden spent more time dodging than answering direct questions. I don't care if Blue America votes to move the nation backwards and divide the country even further at this point. I won't be long before Earth 1 and 2 are more or less functioning as separate nations and we will be direct competitors. You have Europe and China and the UN to support you when we leave the Blue Union so to speak. You're living in a false reality and so is Joe Biden at this point.

[pbrower2a]

MICHIGAN

Total ballots cast of 8.1 million registered voters: 1.8 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 62 percent. Trump: 38 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 139,000. Biden: 63 percent. Trump: 37 percent.

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 96,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump 47 percent.


Democratic takeaway: While Michigan does not have hard party registration figures like most other states, internal Democratic modeling gives Biden an edge so far.

Steve Pontoni (D), political consultant: "The number that’s most interesting to me is that as of (Wednesday morning) over 250,000 people have voted who did not vote in 2016 and that’s 23 percent of people who have already voted. And the average age is in the high 50s, and when we model them, it’s a strong Biden constituency from what we can see.”

Republican takeaway: Though the Democratic lead before Election Day is big, Republicans are counting on strong white working-class support for Trump and relatively low Black voter enthusiasm for Biden in urban areas.

John Sellek ®, Harbor Strategic in Michigan: “Polling here shows Biden leading amongst those who voted early so far, yet we are consistently seeing Republican voters expressing slightly higher excitement about voting than Democrats. We are also seeing Republicans conducting voter registration in blue-collar areas that's never been possible before. ... However, if turnout is over 5 million, which would break Michigan's 2008 record, it becomes very difficult to find enough Republicans to keep up at the statewide level.”

Comments:

1. The only good that I can say of this news for Trump is that the "sporadic vote" is far too small, except in the context of a very small differential necessary to swing the state. The problem for Trump in Michigan is that the differential between winning and losing Michigan is far too small for him to win this state.

2. Trump can win without Michigan, but he would have to win nearly everything that he won in 2016 to win without Michigan. Michigan will not decide this Presidential election.

3. Michigan is a one-time fluke for Trump. After 2020 People are going to wonder how Michigan could go for Trump in 2016. Trump isn't winning Michigan. It has been a long time since Michigan had the feel of a state that could go either way.

4. Trump will win his base in 2020, and Michigan will be no exception. The base is not enough. The partsian bases for both Democrats and Republicans is about 40%, which reflects the level of support for Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972, Carter in 1980, and Mondale in 1984. Goldwater and McGovern both had enthusiastic supporters... but that was obviously enough. Nobody wins nationally by getting the base and nothing else. Trump will get a vote in the low 40's in Michigan.

5. Trump can win without Michigan

[Classic-Xer]

(10-23-2020, 06:34 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(10-22-2020, 11:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Here is Howe's description from his website. He gives credit to a four-phase model of social change devised by the famous sociologist Talcott Parsons, who hypothesized that society moves into a new phase every time the availability or demand for social order rises or falls. I don't know his work.
https://www.lifecourse.com/about/method/...nings.html

Quote:Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists die, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

In Parsons’ terms, a Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is low, but the demand for such order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.

I just marvel after watching the debate how closely this matches where we are, with Biden as the agent who seeks to restore the social order and respond to the threats to the nation's very survival. Biden says this election is a decision of what kind of country we want to be, and offers solutions that require community purpose. Classic Xer would call it collectivism. And there was Trump, the very embodiment of the social disorder that threatens the nation, defending completely his policies of not dealing with our problems and allowing them to fester and destroy us. All this means we are surely not near the end of this 4th turning. Much strife and struggle remains bringing down the Republican walls the block the 4th turning's agenda, and work to lay the foundations for the new social order we will take for granted once the first turning starts around 2029.

Then Ivanka or Spencer Cox can win the presidency, and it won't matter much more than it did when Ike was elected. But someone besides Kamala Harris must enter the breach for the Democrats in 2024 or it will all come crashing down before it starts. Tom Cotton has a stronger horoscope score in the new system too.

What one person wants greatly one may not get, but a society as a whole that does not have perverse means of achieving its ends (the extreme example of a society having "perverse means" is of course Nazi Germany, and this time there is no Great Power as horrible as the Third Reich)... Trump is certainly a political pervert, and it may still be premature to decide whether he has any relevance to American life after January 21... 

We want order, and Trump has offered chaos that we never thought possible. He is the first President to egg on the fascistic Right of racists and even traitors (the Michigan Plot), and it is safe to assume that those parts of the GOP that have a stake in a viable Establishment have decided to join the Democratic Big Tent... at least for now. Trump's idea of order is to centralize authority, especially in federal law enforcement, while making it cruel and unaccountable.

Americans are for law and order on the whole. Trump may deride Black Lives Matter (BLM),  but BLM has a legitimate and narrow objective of making police less trigger-happy around black people.  So we make our police more accountable in the presence of black people. That does not make life easier for outright criminals of any kind.

Some powerful people have sought to institutionalize the depravities of the 3T (mostly the neoliberal era) in a New Order of extreme inequality of opportunity and economic result, something that created the rift that made the American Civil War inevitable. This time it would lead to an authoritarian order in which 95% of the people are responsible to a tiny minority of about 2% of the people, almost certainly a hereditary elite itself responsible to nobody. Orders like that tend to implode, as did Imperial Russia. 

For now I cannot predict the future of the Republican Party. The Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump, make no mistake, are conservative Republicans of the old style. Most are out of power, typically having retired from high public office. Do they take back the GOP and drive out the Trump Cult, or does the Trump Cult establish a firm hold on the GOP? With the former (although the politicians would likely be on the whole new and  'clean') and we return to partisan norms of a time other than this one. Or do the conservative dissidents from Trump find their way into the Democratic Party in some 1T equivalent of an Era of Good Feeling, only for the Big Tent to prove unwieldy?

Note well that there is much conservative thought within the Democratic Party, with people who do not want pervasive change in economic relationships. Model minorities are typically quite conservative on cultural matters, and they do not want their economic position to come under attack from proletarian revolution. 

Much will be clearer by the middle of November than is now.

The future of the Republican largely depends on us at this  point and the future of Democratic party is directly asso0ciated with its right now. We have the remnant of one party who are viewed as being in cahoots with the other party who are both into bridges with half the American electorate and don't seem to be concerned about pissing millions of Americans off these days. They seem to be living in the same false reality as all of you guys today's. It's really dumb but desperate power hungry and greedy people doing dumb things is normal during testing times like these.

[Classic-Xer]

(10-23-2020, 11:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: MICHIGAN

Total ballots cast of 8.1 million registered voters: 1.8 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 62 percent. Trump: 38 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 139,000. Biden: 63 percent. Trump: 37 percent.

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 96,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump 47 percent.


Democratic takeaway: While Michigan does not have hard party registration figures like most other states, internal Democratic modeling gives Biden an edge so far.

Steve Pontoni (D), political consultant: "The number that’s most interesting to me is that as of (Wednesday morning) over 250,000 people have voted who did not vote in 2016 and that’s 23 percent of people who have already voted. And the average age is in the high 50s, and when we model them, it’s a strong Biden constituency from what we can see.”

Republican takeaway: Though the Democratic lead before Election Day is big, Republicans are counting on strong white working-class support for Trump and relatively low Black voter enthusiasm for Biden in urban areas.

John Sellek ®, Harbor Strategic in Michigan: “Polling here shows Biden leading amongst those who voted early so far, yet we are consistently seeing Republican voters expressing slightly higher excitement about voting than Democrats. We are also seeing Republicans conducting voter registration in blue-collar areas that's never been possible before. ... However, if turnout is over 5 million, which would break Michigan's 2008 record, it becomes very difficult to find enough Republicans to keep up at the statewide level.”

Comments:

1. The only good that I can say of this news for Trump is that the "sporadic vote" is far too small, except in the context of a very small differential necessary to swing the state. The problem for Trump in Michigan is that the differential between winning and losing Michigan is far too small for him to win this state.

2. Trump can win without Michigan, but he would have to win nearly everything that he won in 2016 to win without Michigan. Michigan will not decide this Presidential election.

3. Michigan is a one-time fluke for Trump. After 2020  People are going to wonder how Michigan could go for Trump in 2016. Trump isn't winning Michigan. It has been a long time since Michigan had the feel of a state that could go either way.

4. Trump will win his base in 2020, and Michigan will be no exception. The base is not enough. The partsian bases for both Democrats and Republicans is about 40%, which reflects the level of support for Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972, Carter in 1980, and Mondale in 1984.  Goldwater and McGovern both had enthusiastic supporters... but that was obviously enough.  Nobody wins nationally by getting the base and nothing else.  Trump will get a vote in the low 40's in Michigan.

5. Trump can win without Michigan

So, they are already counting ballots and releasing election results for Michigan and Florida right now? So, how's it going in Minnesota? I haven't heard any results here yet. But then again, I'm not heavily into the Democrat party or its low end politics like you guys these days.

[pbrower2a]

(10-23-2020, 10:14 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(10-22-2020, 11:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Here is Howe's description from his website. He gives credit to a four-phase model of social change devised by the famous sociologist Talcott Parsons, who hypothesized that society moves into a new phase every time the availability or demand for social order rises or falls. I don't know his work.
https://www.lifecourse.com/about/method/...nings.html



I just marvel after watching the debate how closely this matches where we are, with Biden as the agent who seeks to restore the social order and respond to the threats to the nation's very survival. Biden says this election is a decision of what kind of country we want to be, and offers solutions that require community purpose. Classic Xer would call it collectivism. And there was Trump, the very embodiment of the social disorder that threatens the nation, defending completely his policies of not dealing with our problems and allowing them to fester and destroy us. All this means we are surely not near the end of this 4th turning. Much strife and struggle remains bringing down the Republican walls that block the 4th turning's agenda, and work to lay the foundations for the new social order we will take for granted once the first turning starts around 2029.

Then Ivanka or Spencer Cox can win the presidency, and it won't matter much more than it did when Ike was elected. But someone besides Kamala Harris must enter the breach for the Democrats in 2024 or it will all come crashing down before it starts. Tom Cotton has a stronger horoscope score in the new system too.

Dude, Kamala has already been picked to replace Bumbling Biden. So, you're stuck her whether you like it or not and whatever the outcome of her taking office.  Honestly, I have no love or feelings/sense of obligation towards you, the Democratic party or the remainder of the GOP at this point and it's nice to see that all of you are on the same side with each other these days. The Washington elite have a much lower approval percentage/rating than Trump today. So, how long is it going to be until you and them are no longer viewed as American by the majority of Americans? Of coarse, the difference will be that we will be full blown 4T and the institutions that you're relying on now will be at war with themselves as well as finding themselves at war with us at that point. We are on same page as far as where we are at Eric. We are just going by different signs/ guides at this point. You can have socialism and all the shit that comes with it all to yourselves. I'm sure that your people are going to give us the justification that we are all waiting for right now.

Dude, Joe Biden most likely selected Kamala Harris out of a desire to find a capable understudy who could take on the responsibility  of the Presidency in the event of you-know-what (Biden is a high risk of dying in office just for being older than the life expectancy in the USA), someone ideologically compatible, and someone on which no conflict of interest is likely to appear. Winning a key state? California is the difference between 31 and 86 electoral votes. If Biden were intent on picking up a key state, then if he wanted to pick the first female Vice President he might have better picked Senator Debbie Stabenow. D-MI, who according to Nate Silver's 'snake' would be the difference between 215 and 231 electoral votes.  

Dude, I am willing to accept as fellow Americans anyone ready to accept some minimal standards of civic responsibility that have nothing to do with fitting some ideological position. I'll start with obeying just laws that assert and defend human rights, recognize the validity of personal property and the sanctity of the person, eschew violence and property destruction, seek to make an economic contribution if such is possible, stand for at the least the enumerated rights in the Constitution, and accept electoral results as right (in the absence of blatant fraudulence. Yes, Trump did win fair and square in America even if I hate his guts).

Do I have my biases? Who doesn't?  I could live in Dearborn, Michigan, where a large Muslim population demands that law enforcement create a community compatible with Muslim family values... in contrast to the vileness of southwestern Detroit with its sexually-related businesses, whores plying their trade, and drunks and addicts stumbling about. Better the kebab house than the strip club, and better the mosque than the whorehouse. Dearborn police are stationed at the city limits, and anyone who offends Dearborn values as a drunk, addict, or whore is guided back. Much of what makes Dearborn a family-friendly place is zoning, and a community can zone out sexually-related businesses. But I need not be a Muslim to fit in in Dearborn. Plenty of Christians and Jews find Dearborn a good place to live. If you question the loyalty of the large Muslim population of Dearborn, then consider that the 9/11 plotters stayed clear of Dearborn. This is one place in which people would have understood the nuances of plotters and reported them to the FBI. 

Can you get a drink in a bar in Dearborn? Sure. But you will be busted if you start a drunken brawl.  

Michigan did have a terrorist plot operating recently, but it had nothing to do with Islam.  I want nothing to do with the Michigan Militia with which such luminaries of American terrorism as Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols hung out for a while. There was a terrorist plot intended to disrupt the state government by 'decapitating' its elected leadership.  That is un-American. Eventually persons involved in the Michigan plot will face trial, and I do not predict the results of criminal trials or civil cases here.  I am not going to predict where in Michigan any trial will be held... but I doubt that Dearborn would be particularly lenient toward anyone involved in a plot to kidnap the Governor. People living in Dearborn because they disliked undemocratic regimes such as Saddam Hussein's Iraq or Syria under Assad pere or fils are unlikely to think sympathetically of those who reject an American democracy that allows one to be a fervent Muslim. 

Dude, there are people who parade about with fascistic shtick who shout "Jews will not replace us". Ironically men of those white men proud of being white and having no legitimate cause for pride might prevent "Jews replacing them" if they were able to attract wives and have normal marital lives. people in the Michigan plot (and most are young men) seem much the same.

[pbrower2a]

NORTH CAROLINA

Total ballots cast of 7.3 million registered voters: 2.1 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 57 percent. Trump: 43 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 148,000. Biden: 60 percent. Trump: 40 percent.

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 61,000. Biden: 51 percent. Trump: 49 percent.

Republican takeaway: Even when Democrats have won early voting in past elections, a surge of Election Day votes has powered Republicans to victory. And while they’re being trounced in mail ballots, the first few days of early in-person voting have been stunningly high for Republicans, already helping close the gap.

Patrick Sebastian ®, Majority Strategies and nephew of former Gov. Pat McCrory: "Right now, it's really about even, as far as both parties having their Election Day voters vote early this year. So I think that's a good thing. I think it is going to all hinge on, though, low-propensity voters.”

Democratic takeaway: Early voting has always favored Democrats in the Tar Heel State, where they’re expected to build out a lead. Democrats are returning mail votes at a significantly greater clip than Republicans, and there are drastically more people voting early than years’ past.

Morgan Jackson (D), Nexus Strategies: “Democrats currently have a pretty broad advantage, not only in registration, but looking at who the unaffiliated voters are that are voting. They're much more urban, and suburban unaffiliated, that are college educated. And that has been a very good demographic for Democrats, not only in North Carolina, but all across the country.”

Comment:

1. Nothing indicates that North Carolina will be anything but close, the state assigning its fifteen electoral votes  (North Carolina is now a big state electorally) Election-day voters will likely be strongly R. 

2. Trump is unpopular in North Carolina. Disapproval of the President is in the 52-54% range, which is inadequate for an incumbent President seeking re-election. Obama never won any state in 2012 in which his disapproval number ever got above 51%. 100-disapproval is a good proxy for an electoral result. Yes, it is possible to win a 49-48 election, but not one in which the Other Guy gets 50%.

[pbrower2a]

PENNSYLVANIA

Total ballots cast of 9 million registered voters: 1.2 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 73 percent. Trump: 27 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 57,000. Biden: 72 percent. Trump: 28 percent.

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 88,000. Biden: 64 percent. Trump: 36 percent.

Democratic takeaway: Pennsylvania has slowly drifted from the president in polling and his handling of coronavirus came at the worst time for him.

Neil Oxman (D), The Campaign Group: "When Trump started acting more normally in the summer, he regained ground. But then you had this complete meltdown starting with the debate and him getting Covid and at that point ... people started voting.”

Republican takeaway: The rural areas of Pennsylvania where Trump dominated in 2016 are still highly enthusiastic.

Charlie Gerow ®, Quantum Communications: “There is an army of red-hat wearing folks that are marking their calendar for Nov. 3. They’re champing at the bit. You saw that with his rally in Erie this week. He has these gigantic crowds, enormous, in places where you wouldn’t expect to see a dozen people.”

Comments:

1. Except for some grossly-divergent polls . Pennsylvania has typically seemed like the sort of state that Biden will win by high single digits. Biden has been cautious in his campaign, trying to shore up key states while doing little to expand the national map. Trump has seemed reckless, which may be his only chance.

2. According to Nate Silver's "snake", the tipping point state that straddles 270 electoral votes for both Trump and Biden is Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania will be close to the national average in the popular vote.

3. It is imaginable that Trump could win without Pennsylvania, but Trump would have to nearly sweep the board of states other than Michigan (which he is absolutely not winning)

4. Biden has a connection to a key area of northeastern Pe3nnsylvania, the swingy northeast that includes Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Hazleton. Practically any Democrat will win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Trump has done little to win over suburban Philadelphia.

5. "Sporadic voters" who have already voted are almost enough to make the difference between 2016 and 2020.

[Bob Butler 54]

(10-23-2020, 11:48 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: The future of the Republican largely depends on us at this  point and the future of Democratic party is directly asso0ciated with  its right now. We have the remnant of one party who are viewed as being in cahoots with the other party who are both into bridges with half the American electorate and don't seem to be concerned about pissing millions of Americans off  these days. They seem to be living in the same false reality as all of you guys today's. It's really  dumb but desperate power hungry and  greedy people doing dumb things is normal  during testing  times like these.

Solving the basic problems of COVID, racism and global warming are not dumb. I know it is still generally favorable by the red partisans to reject the expense of solving problems, but the problems keep getting worse until a crisis comes along and it is time to solve them. It's time.

You are obsessed by violence. Again, the red population has generally accepted election results. I do not accept your violent daydreams.

I do see power hungry and greedy conservatives trying to hold on to the established power structure during the crisis. That is just about par for the course. George III, the slave owners, Hitler... They all went down leaving only some valued lessons learned behind. I don't see it being different this time around.

[pbrower2a]

(10-24-2020, 12:09 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(10-23-2020, 11:25 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: MICHIGAN

Total ballots cast of 8.1 million registered voters: 1.8 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 62 percent. Trump: 38 percent.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 139,000. Biden: 63 percent. Trump: 37 percent.

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 96,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump 47 percent.


Democratic takeaway: While Michigan does not have hard party registration figures like most other states, internal Democratic modeling gives Biden an edge so far.

Steve Pontoni (D), political consultant: "The number that’s most interesting to me is that as of (Wednesday morning) over 250,000 people have voted who did not vote in 2016 and that’s 23 percent of people who have already voted. And the average age is in the high 50s, and when we model them, it’s a strong Biden constituency from what we can see.”

Republican takeaway: Though the Democratic lead before Election Day is big, Republicans are counting on strong white working-class support for Trump and relatively low Black voter enthusiasm for Biden in urban areas.

John Sellek ®, Harbor Strategic in Michigan: “Polling here shows Biden leading amongst those who voted early so far, yet we are consistently seeing Republican voters expressing slightly higher excitement about voting than Democrats. We are also seeing Republicans conducting voter registration in blue-collar areas that's never been possible before. ... However, if turnout is over 5 million, which would break Michigan's 2008 record, it becomes very difficult to find enough Republicans to keep up at the statewide level.”

Comments:

1. The only good that I can say of this news for Trump is that the "sporadic vote" is far too small, except in the context of a very small differential necessary to swing the state. The problem for Trump in Michigan is that the differential between winning and losing Michigan is far too small for him to win this state.

2. Trump can win without Michigan, but he would have to win nearly everything that he won in 2016 to win without Michigan. Michigan will not decide this Presidential election.

3. Michigan is a one-time fluke for Trump. After 2020  People are going to wonder how Michigan could go for Trump in 2016. Trump isn't winning Michigan. It has been a long time since Michigan had the feel of a state that could go either way.

4. Trump will win his base in 2020, and Michigan will be no exception. The base is not enough. The partsian bases for both Democrats and Republicans is about 40%, which reflects the level of support for Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972, Carter in 1980, and Mondale in 1984.  Goldwater and McGovern both had enthusiastic supporters... but that was obviously enough.  Nobody wins nationally by getting the base and nothing else.  Trump will get a vote in the low 40's in Michigan.

5. Trump can win without Michigan

So, they are already counting ballots and releasing election results for Michigan and Florida  right now? So, how's it going in Minnesota? I haven't heard any results here yet. But then again, I'm not heavily into the Democrat party or its low end politics like you guys these days.

Like polling it is an estimate. I'm guessing that the split of Biden and Trump voters is largely one of partisan affiliation or patterns of prior voting. Michigan is not going to go 62-38  for Biden; more likely it will go 55-45 for Biden. Guess what? That is still 16 electoral votes that Trump won in 2016 and has nearly no chance of winning this time whether Michigan goes to Biden by 2% or 24%. 

This study did not include Minnesota. Check the link. I showed the results of all states involved in the study.

I see no indication that Minnesota will even be close for Trump -- or even close to being close -- for Trump. Were he winning, then Minnesota would be a nail-biter for Democrats. It was last time, but it isn't now.

I rely heavily upon probabilistic models for predicting an election. Trump is not doing what he needs to do to get re-elected. Whatever usual advantage comes from being the incumbent he has largely wasted.  If he were going to win another close election, then maybe Minnesota and New Hampshire would be switching to Trump while Michigan goes to Biden while Trump holds onto Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Were he making a successful improvement in his results, then states close in 2016 that he barely won would be going not so close; states like Arizona and Florida would be going out of reach for his challenger; and states like Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and Oregon might be shaky for Biden. 

If you want to see it (I will not do this because I have a long journey to an airport to pick someone up) I might 'retrodict' (I coined that word, so don't look that up in the dictionary -- predicting an event based upon some change in historical reality) the re-election of Mitt Romney to a second term after his competent handling of COVID-19, untroubling and conventional  foreign policy, and having a competent electoral machine intact in 2020 against some really-weak Democrat because under the circumstances Joe Biden remains in retirement. 

You are going to regret that Democrats heeded Mitt Romney and Republicans didn't.

Or should I have Jeb Bush as the winner of 2016?