Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Dec-2020 World View: Merry Christmas message

The year 2020 has been the 18th year of Generational Dynamics
development. As usual, I have torn feelings. I take pride in the
fact that the thousands of analyses and trend predictions that I've
posted in the last 18 years have continued to be true or trending
true, but of course I get depressed at the consequences of those
trends and predictions. Like King Solomon in Ecclesiastes, I've found
that: "For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth
knowledge increaseth sorrow."

I want to thank all the members of this forum who have been
supportive, particularly in providing international information and
analyses that I'm not always aware of. Together, we've been able to
create an understanding of the world that is far more accurate than
anything else on the internet or, indeed, in the world. I always like
to point out that Generational Dynamics has accomplished what, in the
1990s, I would have said was mathematically impossible. But by
combining generational theory with chaos theory and exponential growth
theory, the mathematical obstacles have been overcome, and the
Generational Dynamics view of the world is unquestionably the best and
most accurate in the world.

I'm seeing the light at the end of the tunnel in writing my Vietnam
book. (That phrase will be well remembered by those who lived through
the Vietnam War.) I've written extensively about millennia of
Vietnam's history, from ancient tribes to a millennium of Chinese
domination to a millennium of independence with a seemingly infinite
number of dynasties and wars to French colonization to Communist
control.

I've also written extensively about the rise of Buddhism, how it grew
out of Hinduism in India, and then spread across Asia, as far as Korea
and Japan. I've described the theology of the different schools of
Buddhism and, for fun, I've included a special section on the solution
to the Zen Buddhist koan, "What is the sound of one hand clapping?"

My description of this history and theology of Buddhism complements my
description of the history and theology of Islam and Christianity that
I wrote at length in my book "World View: Iran's Struggle for
Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East."
And of course, my book on "War between China and Japan" describes the
history and theology of Confucianism and Daoism.

This is a particularly satisfying personal accomplishment for me.
When I was a student at MIT, I was fascinated by religions, and for
four semesters I sat in on the course "Religions of the World," given
by the great Professor Huston Smith.

So now, my Iran, China and Vietnam books combined could well be used
as the textbooks for the best "Religions of the World" college course
that could be given.

This is particularly relevant to mention on Christmas day. Those
wishing to understand all the religions of the world will find the
answers in these books.

Returning now to the Vietnam book, I've spent a lot of time in the
past couple of months trying to figure out what happened in what
Americans call "The Vietnam War." The major conclusion that I reached
was that the war was already lost by 1964, thanks especially to two
disastrous decisions by President Kennedy. It's hard to describe
these actions in any way other than intentional sabotage of the war
effort, but whether intentional or unintentional, they were certainly
sabotage, and meant the war was lost by the time Johnson became
president, leading to Nixon's unavoidable betrayal of the South
Vietnamese people. I will write an article on these conclusions
sometime in the near future.

Once again, I'd like to thank forum members who have provided
information and interpretations of Generational Dynamics analyses from
the point of view of other countries and other people. The most
valuable contribution of Generational Dynamics is that it provides
accurate analyses and forecasts for any people and any country in the
world, at any time in history, not just America.

I know many people are separated from their families this Christmas,
because of the Wuhan Coronavirus, and so it's appropriate to quote
these lyrics, as sung by Judy Garland in the 1944 film, "Meet Me in St
Louis":

Some day soon we all will be together, if the fates allow.
Until then, we'll have to muddle through somehow.
So have yourself a Merry Little Christmas now.


Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CreWsnhQwzY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CreWsnhQwzY

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Dec-2020 World View: Mocking the handicapped

(12-24-2020, 10:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > By the way -- I gave up completely on Donald Trump when he mocked
> the handicapped. I remember hearing jokes about the handicapped
> (except for moron jokes) from people my age when I was about ten
> years old. Most people outgrow such garbage (and it really is
> cruel) when they are about ten years old. Around that age, one
> either finds those repugnant or someone is able to explain why you
> don't do them (Dad tells you that the fellow in a wheelchair is a
> disabled veteran who served his country heroically, and there but
> for the Grace of God go you ten years from now if we get into a
> war with the Soviet Union. I may judge harshly people who hurt
> themselves through their own follies such as drugs, alcoholism,
> extreme obesity, and criminal behaviors.. but I fault nobody who
> did nothing to fault himself.

> I have a neurological disorder that makes me little more than my
> intellect. It has messed me up as can a drug or alcohol habit
> except to not put my life at risk. No, I'm not crazy; I simply
> can't enjoy what many other people enjoy. I could never attend a
> rock concert. Yes, it is genetic. I got a double dose, as my late
> parents both showed signs of being on the autistic spectrum, and
> it is probably a good thing that I never had children; they would
> be at a high risk of institutionalization.

Thank you for posting this. This explains why you hate Trump so much,
and perhaps also explains why you hate 74 million Tea Partiers and
Trump supporters, although that's a bit more tenuous.

Trump claims that he wasn't mocking the handicapped at all. His side
of the story is given in this Fox News story:

-- Did Trump really mock reporter's disability? Videos could back him up
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/did-tru...ack-him-up
(Fox News, 14-Sep-2016)

For what it's worth, my opinion is that if Trump really did mock the
handicapped, then his doing so is wrong, and he should be condemned
for it.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Dec-2020 World View: Installing Stalinist Communism

(12-22-2020, 07:33 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > At any rate, the drift toward Stalinist Communism will be stopped
> at that point, and the country will unite to face the existential
> threat.

(12-23-2020, 03:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > You seem very confident that the Stalinist Communism won't itself
> be the threat?

This is an interesting question because it's a question about American
culture.

The freedoms guaranteed by the first and second Amendments to the Bill
of Rights -- freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom to own a
firearm -- are all repugnant to the Democrats. This is manifest in
their hatred of Tea Partiers and Trump supporters, as when Obama
contemptuously referred to them as "clinging to their Bibles and
guns."

The problem for the Democrats is that these freedoms are deeply
embedded in the American culture. They're implied by the Declaration
of Independence, and incorporated into the Constitution. The
Democrats right now are at the peak of their power in Stalinist
censorship. However, even Democrats are opposed to curtailing the
basic rights. In this forum, Brower recently complained that covid-19
news isn't being reported. That's because Covid-19 news is being
censored in all the Democrat-controlled media sources that he watches.

You may recall that I've frequently mocked Obama because all of his
original campaign promises were failures, especially rolling back the
tides. Even the simplest one, his promise to close Guantánamo prison
on day one, was a failure, as Guantánamo prison is still open today,
12 years later.

So it's interesting that the same thing is happening with Biden. He
promised to reverse all of Trump's immigration policies within the
first 100 days, a promise that was so ridiculous it obviously had to
fail.

But now in the last week, Biden has had to renege on that promise.
Quelle surprise!! And he hasn't even taken office!! Now he says that
he's going to appoint a committee, and it will take at least six
months. Lol!

The point is that whatever attempt the Democrats make to install
Stalinist Communism, rejecting the deeply cultural freedoms specified
by the Bill of Rights, is doomed to failure from the start.

---- Source:

-- Biden: Reversing Trump Border Policies Will Take Months
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/art...ake-months
(AP, 22-Dec-2020)

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-25-2020, 01:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(12-22-2020, 07:33 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: At any rate, the drift toward Stalinist Communism will be stopped at that point, and the country will unite to face the existential threat.  

(12-23-2020, 03:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: You seem very confident that the Stalinist Communism won't itself
be the threat?

This is an interesting question because it's a question about American culture.

The freedoms guaranteed by the first and second Amendments to the Bill of Rights -- freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom to own a firearm -- are all repugnant to the Democrats.  This is manifest in
their hatred of Tea Partiers and Trump supporters, as when Obama contemptuously referred to them as "clinging to their Bibles and guns."

The problem for the Democrats is that these freedoms are deeply embedded in the American culture.  They're implied by the Declaration of Independence, and incorporated into the Constitution.  The Democrats right now are at the peak of their power in Stalinist censorship.  However, even Democrats are opposed to curtailing the basic rights.

I would agree somewhat with the Second Amendment.  In urban areas, reducing the problem of gun deaths is something you could want, but less so in rural areas.  I am with the reds in understanding of why the Founding Fathers wanted people carrying arms, but understand why the blues want to change it.  I think some compromise is possible, but it has been too politicized that right now it isn't worth trying.  Both sides still see a total victory in sight.  The blues have a century plus of precedent, and seem to have not noticed it was started in the Jim Crow south as they eliminated all rights for blacks.  The reds have what the founding fathers wrote into law and the recent court cases have reinforced.  Meeting in the middle is unlikely for now.

I don't agree that there is any hostility towards freedom of speech and religion.  Both the red and the blue major news organizations have agendas.  They are not shy about presenting them.  You could argue that Trump censored the scientists, and argue that he has the power to do so.  I'm dubious.  Other than that, in these days of the internet it is really hard to keep information contained.  I personally think both sides are currently too obstinate and untactful.

Also, no one wishes to tell someone else how to worship, but many object to the use of government force to make others follow their own religious beliefs.  That is objected to, and rather loudly and rightly.

But one who uses the power of the moderator to block criticism of his opinion has no right to grumble about censorship.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Dec-2020 World View: Censorship

(12-25-2020, 06:01 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > But one who uses the power of the moderator to block criticism of
> his opinion has no right to grumble about censorship.

You don't post opinions. You post troll garbage. Like Sean Love,
your objective is to be as destructive as possible. You're a human
wrecking ball. You've pretty much destroyed this thread with your
troll garbage. But I'll be damned if you're going to do the same to
the news thread in the Generational Dynamics forum. Fuck you.
However, you're welcome to post all the troll garbage you want in the
Strauss-Howe thread, where it belongs. Have fun!

[pbrower2a]

(12-25-2020, 12:40 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 25-Dec-2020 World View: Mocking the handicapped

(12-24-2020, 10:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   By the way -- I gave up completely on Donald Trump when he mocked
>   the handicapped. I remember hearing jokes about the handicapped
>   (except for moron jokes) from people my age when I was about ten
>   years old. Most people outgrow such garbage (and it really is
>   cruel) when they are about ten years old. Around that age, one
>   either finds those repugnant or someone is able to explain why you
>   don't do them (Dad tells you that the fellow in a wheelchair is a
>   disabled veteran who served his country heroically, and there but
>   for the Grace of God go you ten years from now if we get into a
>   war with the Soviet Union. I may judge harshly people who hurt
>   themselves through their own follies such as drugs, alcoholism,
>   extreme obesity, and criminal behaviors.. but I fault nobody who
>   did nothing to fault himself.

>   I have a neurological disorder that makes me little more than my
>   intellect. It has messed me up as can a drug or alcohol habit
>   except to not put my life at risk.  No, I'm not crazy; I simply
>   can't enjoy what many other people enjoy. I could never attend a
>   rock concert. Yes, it is genetic. I got a double dose, as my late
>   parents both showed signs of being on the autistic spectrum, and
>   it is probably a good thing that I never had children; they would
>   be at a high risk of institutionalization.

Thank you for posting this.  This explains why you hate Trump so much,
and perhaps also explains why you hate 74 million Tea Partiers and
Trump supporters, although that's a bit more tenuous.

I disliked him for other issues of character, including his serial fornication (and Bill Clinton gets no break from me on that), his involvement with mobsters, and his "grab 'em by their (kitty-cats)" quip. If I had a daughter whom some thuggish young man grabbed that way I would press charges if she were under age and would strongly encourage her to press charges if she did not consent. I see Donald Trump as grossly immoral even if it has nothing to do with politics. 

As for Tea Party types... they no longer identify themselves as such.  I live in rural Michigan, where lots of people are Trump supporters. People have been holding rallies in support of the President that they adore as if it were "Beatle-mania" about sixty years ago for at least a month after the election that he lost. At the least the Beatles were the most polished popular music stars since the Big Band Era, if not Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart (whose music was similarly popular).  The Beatles' music is still enjoyable for reasons that make classical music enjoyable (sophisticated structure and even counterpoint that J S Bach would have appreciated in Eleanor Rigby). 

The people who still believe the Tea Party agenda almost all went to Donald Trump and they will be sticking with their beliefs. Someone else will offer much the same in 2024 and 2028. But that agenda is getting old and stale, and its constituency is mostly old people similar in age to me.          

Quote:Trump claims that he wasn't mocking the handicapped at all.  His side
of the story is given in this Fox News story:

-- Did Trump really mock reporter's disability? Videos could back him up
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/did-tru...ack-him-up
(Fox News, 14-Sep-2016)

Trump was in the real estate business, and marketing in real estate is dodgy at best. I'm not saying that salesmanship is a black art; indeed I have been a salesman and a substitute schoolteacher, and once one knows the content and a few tricks of keeping order in the K-12 classroom, teaching is more salesmanship and showmanship than anything else. What one can't get away with in K-12 teaching and other professions that one must do in the marketing of anything from garments to insurance policies to real estate is dodgy talk.   

Quote:For what it's worth, my opinion is that if Trump really did mock the
handicapped, then his doing so is wrong, and he should be condemned
for it.

That is how I interpret what he did. To be sure, drunks have always been fair game for mockery, whether alcoholics themselves like Phil Harris or non-alcoholics (a slip-up on TV showed that the drink that Dean Martin was consuming was apple juice)... but I have genetic cause for what is wrong with me. I must do stage-quality acting to be presentable as a person. If I were normal and I put as much effort into acting on stage or screen, then I might make a good living at it. Ten thousand hours, as Malcom Gladwell puts it in Outliers is the difference between mediocrity and supreme achievement that one makes look easy, whether being a concert pianist or a sports star...   

By age ten most of us know not enough to not mock the handicapped except perhaps morons in a position to mess up one's life. Don't get me wrong on the mentally retarded: the need protection from people who would exploit them, abuse them, and trick them into doing criminal acts.  With Asperger's comes harsh judgment of criminals, sexual perverts, alcoholics, and addicts.

[pbrower2a]

(12-25-2020, 01:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 25-Dec-2020 World View: Installing Stalinist Communism

(12-22-2020, 07:33 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: >   At any rate, the drift toward Stalinist Communism will be stopped
>   at that point, and the country will unite to face the existential
>   threat.  

(12-23-2020, 03:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   You seem very confident that the Stalinist Communism won't itself
>   be the threat?

This is an interesting question because it's a question about American
culture.

The freedoms guaranteed by the first and second Amendments to the Bill
of Rights -- freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom to own a
firearm -- are all repugnant to the Democrats.  This is manifest in
their hatred of Tea Partiers and Trump supporters, as when Obama
contemptuously referred to them as "clinging to their Bibles and
guns."

Freedom of expression, freedom of religion, freedom to own and operate a business, freedom from abusive law enforcement, and due process of the law are essential to liberal democracy. No freedom is quite absolute, so one does not get the right to leak classified information, perform a human sacrifice, do odometer fraud, resist a lawful arrest, or expect generous treatment in a court of law if one acts up like Mumia abu-Jamal. 

As for gun rights, those are far from uniform in liberal democracies. There are practically no "gun rights" in the UK, and even the arch-conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher did nothing to reinstate those in Britain. As I have said elsewhere, a dog is a powerful deterrent to burglars, robbers, and rapists...  and the word "powerful" is literal when it comes to an animal often built like a bear or Big Cat. Dogs can go from extreme docility to extreme ferocity in seconds. Dogs have keener senses than we do except for color vision... but their night vision is very good, and they rouse faster. It is telling that the Nazis prohibited Jews from keeping dogs almost as quickly as they prohibited Jews from owning guns. There's not much worth a severe mauling even by a small dog. Small dogs have big teeth and big claws.

"Gun rights" can be extensive in extreme dictatorships; Nazi Germany was awash in privately-held firearms. Every Nazi in good standing was expected to keep and bear arms. If one was in good standing with the Communist party in the USSR under Brezhnev one could own a gun. Sport hunting was completely legal in the USSR. 

 

Quote:The problem for the Democrats is that these freedoms are deeply
embedded in the American culture.  They're implied by the Declaration
of Independence, and incorporated into the Constitution.  The
Democrats right now are at the peak of their power in Stalinist
censorship.  However, even Democrats are opposed to curtailing the
basic rights.  In this forum, Brower recently complained that covid-19
news isn't being reported.  That's because Covid-19 news is being
censored in all the Democrat-controlled media sources that he watches.

Strictly speaking, the only legal consequence of the Declaration of Independence is the separation from the British Crown, and if I had to choose between being a subject of a fascist dictatorship in America or returning my state to the British Crown then I would choose to return to the nominal rule of the reigning monarch of Great Britain. (The King of Spain or the Emperor of Japan would also suffice...) The Constitution ratifies basic human rights including gun rights where law enforcement is weak and ineffective, as on the frontier. 

I'm not in the media except as a hobbyist (in a way I am a journalist)... and I have my unusual means of expressing the horror that is COVID-19. America has crossed the threshold of one-third of a million deaths, which according to one saying attributed to the damnable Josef Stalin, is 'one third of a statistic. You know that line:

"One death is a tragedy, and a million deaths is a statistic".

The manner of death from people dying of COVID-19 is not so readily available through the media. Then again, neither are the grisly details about death from cirrhosis. Yes, the survival rate is above 98%, which is probably in line with bites by venomous snakes. For good reason I do not handle rattlesnakes. I also do my best to heed all of the rules of the road so that I can keep my risk of death by a vehicle collision down. Indeed I have reported a drunk driver to the local police and told the Michigan State Police about a highway with an inordinate number of speeders.       

Quote:You may recall that I've frequently mocked Obama because all of his
original campaign promises were failures, especially rolling back the
tides.  Even the simplest one, his promise to close Guantánamo prison
on day one, was a failure, as Guantánamo prison is still open today,
12 years later.

I don't fault a politician who has a long wish list that can't be achieved. The legislature might say no and make it stick.  The faults come when the promises come with involve an overt contradiction or imply a violation of the Constitution. The last presidential nominee who made few promises (the elder Bush in 1992) lost -- big. He had no idea of what to do in a Second Act... excuse me, second term.

Quote:So it's interesting that the same thing is happening with Biden.  He
promised to reverse all of Trump's immigration policies within the
first 100 days, a promise that was so ridiculous it obviously had to
fail.

President-elect Joe Biden assumed that his election would come with Democratic nominees for the US Senate winning a raft of Senate seats from incumbent Republican Senators. Democrats get a working majority in the Senate only if two Democrats flip two Senate seats in Georgia from incumbents.  Most poker players know that if a straight is a potential winning hand against most other hands (let us say 4-5-6-7-8) betting on an outside straight (you have 4-5-6-7 and either a 3 or 8 wins), betting on an inside straight is not a particularly good gamble (you need a "6" to complete a straight beginning a 4 and ending in 8).  Betting to win on a double-inside straight (if I had 2-2 and 4-5-8 I would dr0op the 4-5-8 and seek to strengthen the pair) is really risky because one would need two cards going right.   
But now in the last week, Biden has had to renege on that promise.

Quote:Quelle surprise!!  And he hasn't even taken office!!  Now he says that
he's going to appoint a committee, and it will take at least six
months.  Lol!

The point is that whatever attempt the Democrats make to install
Stalinist Communism, rejecting the deeply cultural freedoms specified
by the Bill of Rights, is doomed to failure from the start.

---- Source:

-- Biden: Reversing Trump Border Policies Will Take Months
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/art...ake-months
(AP, 22-Dec-2020)

Trust Joe Biden to seek what is right especially if such contrasts to what Trump did wrong.

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-25-2020, 06:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(12-25-2020, 06:01 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I would agree somewhat with the Second Amendment.  In urban areas, reducing the problem of gun deaths is something you could want, but less so in rural areas.  I am with the reds in understanding of why the Founding Fathers wanted people carrying arms, but understand why the blues want to change it.  I think some compromise is possible, but it has been too politicized that right now it isn't worth trying.  Both sides still see a total victory in sight.  The blues have a century plus of precedent, and seem to have not noticed it was started in the Jim Crow south as they eliminated all rights for blacks.  The reds have what the founding fathers wrote into law and the recent court cases have reinforced.  Meeting in the middle is unlikely for now.

I don't agree that there is any hostility towards freedom of speech and religion.  Both the red and the blue major news organizations have agendas.  They are not shy about presenting them.  You could argue that Trump censored the scientists, and argue that he has the power to do so.  I'm dubious.  Other than that, in these days of the internet it is really hard to keep information contained.  I personally think both sides are currently too obstinate and untactful.

Also, no one wishes to tell someone else how to worship, but many object to the use of government force to make others follow their own religious beliefs.  That is objected to, and rather loudly and rightly.

But one who uses the power of the moderator to block criticism of his opinion has no right to grumble about censorship.

You don't post opinions.  You post troll garbage.  Like Sean Love, your objective is to be as destructive as possible.  You're a human wrecking ball.  You've pretty much destroyed this thread with your troll garbage.  But I'll be damned if you're going to do the same to the news thread in the Generational Dynamics forum.  Fuck you. However, you're welcome to post all the troll garbage you want in the Strauss-Howe thread, where it belongs.  Have fun!

Try to really look at the above three conflicts.  From my perspective, in order to understand a conflict, you have to understand both sides.  That is if there are only two sides.  In the situation around Black Lives Matter, you have to understand the many actors involved: Black Lives Matter, the good cops, the bad cops, Antifa, the Wolverine Watchman, the Proud Boys, the secret police,.the military, Trump…  If you don’t understand all of them, you don’t understand the situation.

Now if your worldview is limited to one specific worldview, you obviously can’t do that.  In playing with worldviews, you can be intelligent or not.  You do very well.  You can be dedicated to doing you research.  In that you do well.  The other factor you need is the ability to switch between worldviews, to examine and understand if not agree with other perspectives involved.  In this one of three categories, and I am open to others existing, you do poorly indeed.

And that is why you are stuck with personal attacks, accusations of stupidity and censorship as your common methods of trying to defend yourself.  You are capable of understanding only one way of looking at a problem at a time.  Other perspectives are at best given a straw man, a perspective you assign which is easy to shut down.  Such is obviously not the real perspective that other world views represent.

Now as worldviews are involved, I am stuck.  As you deal in only a single real perspective at a time, that being your own, you can never accurately describe the situation.  That is just the way you look at things.  I have debated with fundamentalists, Marxists, scientists and many others.  I will shift my mode of argument to the other guy’s worldview, to help the other guy see the Truth as that person sees it.

But I can’t do anything with you.  You can’t show a complex situation to one who is locked into a simplistic perspective.  I can’t or won’t answer insults and censorship save to point it out when it happens.  This turns into an inability to address and debate Generation Dynamics as the creator of it can’t conprehend criticism.  He is just incapable by nature of his worldview to comprehend complex problems.

I suppose it is like trying to raise an issue with a Marxist that has nothing to do with capitol, or raising an argument with a fundamentalist which is not based on the Bible.  They just keep coming back to their own worldview, and will not comprehend or understand other’s perspectives.

***

I am tempted to create another thread within the Generational Dynamics forum.  Strauss, Howe, you and I all use turnings in slightly different ways.  Mine is not quite the same as Strauss and Howe’s.  The difference is similar with my conflicts with you, a failure to account for obvious differences between the Industrial and Information Ages, and lack of emphasis on how each crisis has moved the US culture further from the Agricultural Age pattern.  Thus, the criticisms of Generational Dynamics don’t really reflect Strauss and Howe.  There should be a place for discussing Strauss and Howe.

I am somewhat concerned that the community is splitting.  The blue folk seem to be going with Facebook, the red folk seem not to be moving to your forum.  This is disappointing.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 26-Dec-2020 World View: Another Thread

(12-26-2020, 07:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > I am tempted to create another thread within the Generational
> Dynamics forum. Strauss, Howe, you and I all use turnings in
> slightly different ways. Mine is not quite the same as Strauss
> and Howe’s. The difference is similar with my conflicts with you,
> a failure to account for obvious differences between the
> Industrial and Information Ages, and lack of emphasis on how each
> crisis has moved the US culture further from the Agricultural Age
> pattern. Thus, the criticisms of Generational Dynamics don’t
> really reflect Strauss and Howe. There should be a place for
> discussing Strauss and Howe.

> I am somewhat concerned that the community is splitting. The blue
> folk seem to be going with Facebook, the red folk seem not to be
> moving to your forum. This is disappointing.

You're welcome to do so. If I could make a suggestion, it would be to
develop your theory in as positive a way as possible. I would also
suggest that you simply avoid comparisons to Generational Dynamics,
since those just generate heat.

As for other people in the community, they would need a "home" to come
to, where they would feel comfortable and appreciated, and that could
be your new thread if you could make it appealing to them. You could
also write to people individually and give each one a personal reason
why you would like him to join your thread. Joining a new forum is
actually a lot of work, and people need a reason to do so, so you
would have to give that reason to them.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 26-Dec-2020 World View: China's Pakistan policy

• The Karakoram Highway, also known as the China-Pakistan
  Friendship Highway, is part of China's Belt and Road
  Initiative. (Asia Times / AFP)

Burner Prime" Wrote:> China BRI facing difficulties in Pakistan due to corruption,
> financing difficulties, Baloch resistance and attacks.

> "...Some experts believe that Beijing’s trade war with the US is
> one factor behind the shift in China’s global lending strategy..."

> https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/china-slow...-and-road/

> https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/gwadar-por...ese-firms/

> Trump's strategy toward China may have slowed or weakened her
> substantially. Despite the left's visceral hatred of Trump, seems
> they are not in any rush to knee-jerk reverse his
> policies. Hopefully the same goes with China trade policy.

These Asia Times articles appear to me to be something of a hoax for
two reasons.

One reason is that CPEC is an essential link in China's delusional
grand geopolitical strategy to take over the world, which I summarized in
the following article:

** 16-Dec-20 World View -- China escalates hostility with Australia through threatened coal ban
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e201216


Without CPEC, the whole plan falls apart. And there is absolutely no way
that China is going to back down from that plan, as it would lead to
Xi Jinping's body being found in a garbage dump.

So the idea that China is ceding control of CPEC to Pakistan's army as
a measure "aimed at reassuring Beijing that their investments will be
more secure" is almost laughable.

So if that's true, then what's really going on? That leads us to the
second reason why the articles appear to be a hoax.

The articles don't once mention the most pressing international
financial issue facing Pakistan: The desire by both China and Pakistan
for Pakistan to get an IMF bailout.

In other words, Pakistan is massively in debt to China, and can't pay
the debt, and so China and Pakistan want an IMF bailout so that the US
taxpayer would be paying off Pakistan's loan to China.

I described this situation early in 2019:

** 13-Jan-19 World View -- India-Iran and Saudi-Pakistan alliances form and strengthen in Asia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190113


The IMF has refused to bail Pakistan out unless Pakistan makes some
major reforms. In other words, the IMF is using the loan as leverage
to force Pakistan to reveal the details of its relationship with
China, and to force China to back out. So let's be clear. China
isn't backing out of the CPEC because of some global change in
strategy. They're presenting a facade of backing out, in order to
trick the IMF into bailing out Pakistan.

In fact, one "detail" that Pakistan has been forced to disclose is
that Chinese companies operating in Pakistan get Rs200 billion or $1.2
billion in tax exemptions. The IMF is demanding that those exemptions
be ended before any further IMF payments.

These facts would all have been well known to the Asia Times writers,
but they were not mentioned at all. Why? Because Asia Times was
obeying its masters in China -- just like CNN, the NY Times and
Washington Post.

That's why the Asia Times articles are a hoax.

That's not to say that the reasons given -- corruption, financing
difficulties, Baloch resistance and attacks -- are not real. But
China doesn't care about any of that crap. Its own people are just
cogs in a wheel to the CCP. The whole issue is overshadowed by
China's scam to get the IMF to pay Pakistan's debt to China.

---- Sources:

-- China slowly retreating from Pakistan’s Belt and Road
https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/china-slow...-and-road/
(Asia Times, 24-Dec-2020)

-- Pakistan / Gwadar port sealed off to protect Chinese firms
https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/gwadar-por...ese-firms/
(Asia Times, 25-Dec-2020)

-- Pakistan inches closer to IMF programme revival
https://www.geo.tv/latest/325991-pakista...me-revival
(Geo.tv, Pakistan, 23-Dec-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 28-Dec-2020 World View: Navigator's book, How To Prepare For The Coming Storms

This weekend, I finally got to reading Navigator's book, How To
Prepare For The Coming Storms.

This is an amazing book, full of ordinary steps you can take to help
your family survive the next hurricane, the next flood, the next riot,
or the next war.

I should say that I'm not really the target audience of this book. At
my Methuselean age, I have no desire whatsoever to survive the next
war. I live alone in Cambridge Mass on the edge of MIT, and if the
first Chinese missile hits me, that would be great. I have no life
objective except to die quickly and painlessly.

But maybe you're not like that. For example, maybe you're a mother
with a husband and three children, and you would like to take
responsibility for making sure that your family survives the next
hurricane, flood or war. In that case, you should definitely read
this book.

This book contains literally hundreds of suggestions and directions
for surviving, things you can do right in your own home, without
moving into bunker in the middle of nowhere. The book covers all
sorts of things -- debt, water, food, clothing, medical care, and so
forth.

One example that you probably never even thought of is the subject of
rabbits:

Quote:> "Rabbits: They eat a lot of vegetarian scraps, plus
> they eat grass and weeds. They are a great source of meat, and
> there is some fur, though rather on the small side. They can also
> be kept in apartments, so they are a choice for those without
> accessible land.

> I would recommend just getting a breeding pair and keeping them
> apart until you need a lot of rabbits. Because, and this is
> self-explanatory, they breed like rabbits. So, keep each in an
> individual cage. The varieties I would recommend are California or
> New Zealand."

There are many things in this book that you'll decide are too much
trouble, but you should be aware of all of them. What's more
important are the many things that are simple to do, and which may
someday save the lives of you and your children.

Navigator's book, How To Prepare For The Coming Storms, provides
valuable detailed information on what what's coming. Much of the
information in this book is not available in any form anywhere else.

You can obtain a copy of this book by making a $25 donation to the
following GoFundMe campaign:

https://www.gofundme.com/f/coming-storms-preparation

This donation will fund further development of Generational Dynamics.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 28-Dec-2020 World View: International hostility to China rises sharply

For years, I've been describing how the level of xenophobia in many
countries toward other countries has been increasing. This is a
standard phenomenon during generational Crisis eras. It leads to the
setting and crossing of red lines, and from there to a small military
clash, and from there in a full-scale generational crisis war.

Historically, Americans have loved China, and we even saved China from
the Japanese in WW II. Americans continued to love and adore China
through the Mao Zedong years, even as his Great Leap Forward and
Cultural Revolution resulted in the deaths of tens of millions of
innocent Chinese, and the beating, torture and jailing of probably
millions more.

Things began to change in 1989 with the Tiananmen Square massacre and
collapse of the Soviet Union. These two events evoked total panic and
paranoia in the Chinese Communist Party, and put the Chinese
Communists on the road to open hostility toward the West, and also
toward hostility towards its own people, as it began to openly
criticize and punish the "five poisons": Tibetans, Uighur Muslims,
democracy activists, Taiwanese, and Falun Gong practitioners.

The CCP xenophobia has increased even more sharply since 2011, when Xi
Jinping came to power and became a dictator. He's repeatedly made it
clear how contemptuous he is of the west, whether in Hong Kong, the
South China Sea, threats against Taiwan, or the enslavement of
millions of Uighurs. In my opinion, the worst example of this was the
National Intelligence Law in 2017, which required all Chinese
businesses and individuals to spy on the West, even when such spying
is illegal.

The international reaction has been an increase of xenophobia toward
China. Pew Research recently showed how unfavorable views of China
have been increasing in many countries in the last 20 years:

• Increasingly negative views of China across countries (Pew
  Research)

The change has been extremely dramatic in the last year, because of
China's actions in intentionally infecting hundreds of countries with
the Wuhan Coronavirus.

At the same time, there have been increasingly negatie views of Xi
Jinping in the last year:

• Negative views of Xi Jinping -- 2019 vs 2020

The research shows that older people see China more negatively than
younger people:

• Older people see China more negatively

However, it isn't one-sided. A survey by the Diplomat found that
Chinese views of Americans have also become sharply more negative,
because of Trump's trade policies, Uighur bans, and criticisms of
China over Hong Kong and the Wuhan Coronavirus.

So the negative feelings are mutual. In particular, Chinese and
Americans dislike each other to the same extent. 73% Americans hold
either “very unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” views of China. On
the Chinese side, the antipathy is even more widespread: 77% of the
Chinese hold such views of the United States.

These are historic trends, leading to a world war. Biden blames these
trends on Donald Trump, and he implies that he'll reverse them.
Biden's change of policy is a chaotic that could either delay the path
to war, or speed it up. There's no way to predict.

--- Sources:

-- Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/...countries/
(PewResearch, 6-Oct-2020)

-- What Do Chinese People Think of Developed Countries?
https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/what-do-...countries/
(Diplomat, 18-Dec-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 01-Jan-2021 World View: Saving the FT forum

Is there anyone left who wants to save this forum? Or do you want to
let it turn completely into a garbage dump and die?

Here's what I propose to do: I'll call the web host (Small Orange),
explain the situation to them, and ask them to give me cpanel access
to the web site. I'll then go into the mysql database and make myself
a moderator, and then clear all the spam crap out, and ban the spam
crappers.

They'll just laugh at me, unless I have the support of a lot of
people. So here's what I want you (all of you) to do: Just post a
message below saying that you support me in doing this.

If I can get, say, ten or more forum members to support me, then I'll
try calling them, and telling them that I have the support of a bunch
of members. They may still laugh at me, but the more support I have,
the more likely they are to listen.

Of course, if someone wants to steal my idea and do it yourself,
you're welcome to do so. Or even better, if Rags or Sam or some other
existing moderator wants to come back and do his job, that's even
better.

[Bob Butler 54]

You have my support, or any other regular who attempts the same thing. You may have trouble finding ten supporters. this place is too much a ghost town. I would add that anyone going the above route should appoint emergency moderators to prevent our current problem from repeating.

[Tim Randal Walker]

You also have my support.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 01-Jan-2021 Today's birthdays

Have you looked at the home page today? These are all the people who
gave January 1 as their birthdays:

Today's Birthdays dernesx0rm, g8karln396, f2nngdk235, ciaramgzot,
l8goshf063, m8xvghh825, ithrisiemz, h4oikzm925, i0xhzgx615,
j8xkqsd420, zerianzjch, e8ojhzn658, freadhogur, cilleneqzt,
thoinnueeo, chelenfium, plefulfbxy, freaghwbod, buthiretux,
l2bwlln797, midingicvw, bjupk7416723xz, dernesnewu, marinkttnp,
galenaqlzb, usnaerqfor, ygerusynfv, h4qnvqw207, merifisgkr,
ggottliebbzdq, x5regho798, d6uzsxw743, w2lstjw137, nycoldfgnl,
e5wjulr266, e2gdvqh760, u7ncjvk666, drianaecwi, a4qnjiz388,
s1jjqvk217, tkuhlmanjdba, i6wpbmk537, w6pblcm974, allachqors,
reiddaghgc, melunetrxi, otbertbsbf, wkemmer6but, moenuseutk,
y4epvlg342, nibeneibxf, q8wahty484, l9bppzm027, x1plogd346,
nathopnzig, palerigzls, blauntnpkn, tuloeffhsa, b6pwgqg386,
derrylgc65, adeneugehv, gillickxob, whyttajrhi, duwains9in,
alanna1cfs, mothinlzjm, gloirstdxx, hgusikowskixw1t, celeifpdjj,
brendaekpw, paxtunmprf, dernesklwn, duburgente, sordusffme,
q9cfktl529, muallejicv, gundanvbln, g5jixcu319, bitineei7w,
jeovis550c, s5uszvx545, elmarajghh, cwrictebdy, n4aubar542,
balethgjq4, bjupk5524855hn, o4dzgzn360, x1dbavg793, f1hcdlr156,
j2ojwzj187, galimesifb, e3etrpe641, t3hloyh528, r2stmdy636,
cyrinaufly, y7kuvay312, aculusighs, zhilll4b8g, i3nsbkd788,
pherahbtnk, viliagpkiq, c8krgmw504, yenianejly, bjupk7951138kx,
audianrfds, nuadandrwj, cirdanapce, g8jangc615, r9aplzc152,
bedwynx6wb, godellzweg, d7vlxup456, y4ubwwy769, colynnrwre,
narapsy4n1, sjarthjt2r, usnaersajt, bilbukgdbs, dearusgiqn,
delodotrwg, tirlewgmgo, d9ntukw382, bedwynsuaq, orancehwrl,
z6zoagq177, dorsonojub, nycoldbykm, weyladsypa, sharapybme,
herecevelt, otbertaxj0, oranceitbm, bastumzbsz, cwrictsflr,
sulainxxcw, e5gpyqr466, nirneyltsm, cromlibunb, maultablxq,
a7facvh824, adeneunurm, n2wxibc192, naydiexvka, ceolanltwn,
daronemzfp, o7tmqir109, v6uplms833, nibenepqys, ortionuqts,
t8dfiki446, ismerdvfsc, milionkbsq, k7hrimf557, morvinciip,
o6dkkxe463, u5smayl509, frazigx77y, n9sizgo276, thoinewyig,
sipsamqaoj, ambiocjdak, r9tbavz362, cirdanddqg, u8tcwub098,
rhyanndqvu, glassajrcu, withur819h, h8hdnak448, e7nnlun103,
orancewmyx, swalde7n75, otbertrngc, daylinrdts, swanusq8rj,
i7mkvjv844, conaldvozb, camercmsjg, sarrecoqxj, gettanhcyb,
kevielehyw, bkucgorartblog4747888na, brongtravblog2357854hq,
bkucgorfasblog6419237ik, ropherdfrv, brongfoodblog1784654gs,
abbotskg6f, h7hdrpn064, merianshdm, ellachn37p, beunnaapoo,
l4bveii823, isiria2joc, paxtunibtq, dewela27rh, v5cndzo696,
d7lcbxr353, x6doyfj432, c1blvvh812, o0jtjjx036, s0vrsim965,
c8rmyak021, ortiononyi, xanderfvoa, o2hqqya474, rioautoforsure,
axminsswgz, walariljq9, bertynvpjj, hithimpnrm, godiedgfjj,
ryalasrpiv, merrinkyxc, w7rhgqo226, amirblpi284, maixenem03,
marlatxxk597, cwrictnoih, ascullhbaz, merianhyps, cromliujvm,
orancebvyc, sionnaizqt, ortionxeqr, tiablegbxl, c9zfvno393,
orancecmen, j2bvdjv209, c7puwku841, g0eklva247, k2amsts328,
c6yvkos221, lipinnszty, y7jnnfz320, l7nfzya316, f1wfkrf924,
aspaidgdrb, o5qndce849, galairqtbx, abethibabn, dusanleuo047,
felathfbzr, y0twnrt757, anselmtxut358, sinhly16m, l7xpywm408,
gunnaludya, idanxav253, b4ojszo151, t1lmxet227, q8rtvzz584, sinhly16v,
e3yptoj065, s9einbs554, rotheswxnh, r5roguw778, neasalbfnq,
v6kbhmu641, hannahpivq267, l7ofqem756, h3efqpd686, u0fjcos069,
i7vhqlf395, actachwhjz, sklodoried, devaldabqd, katterqb6n,
moenusdnos, keenanfviv, ryalasxmqr, ciaramfczd, drianamjgq,
c0awflv544, fordusvkcv, jokonva93, aspaidcary, dcristv1ow, nibeneleia,
ygerus9pep, dfisher11ti, farelagyqx, eudonacumh, e6jxnjd942,
bpadbergy7ky, zardiaaxad, blandai00p, gessari99m, rhyannffkq,
d6hkjmc250, ikuvaliso96v, zeriansrfp, i9zkpnw795, thartayvrs,
a6wlteb762, machilfnzm, n1xpqjo694, urutiuxqxd, w8nxdpr696,
corriltyfg, w7qgxgj002, n7cwyzu216, w4mmhqc723, w7biuug036,
tothiegpfe, celeenq296, r2bxvfk779, seannadfrb, malrondeag,
q5cpsda578, berhanjncq, saaseyupix, y9cevsz958, h5fsdjc358,
beleifruuq, pherahupty, b2ktxho590, meggurtqco, arnhedncqu,
x1fkutx882, balethwzno, z0gahfw366, o5dmmln922, tbartolettiamo9,
caburgczlq, sgorczany2a23, gwaniegl20, u9iagfk063, kcristcftn,
delodofeyf, acciusmt3o, vaginanzhh, e7rkzfz451, ormodambow,
erwinemcjl, e7ivdfs629, gbechtelar6afp, gwennoehjm, golivewwjl,
bgupok7335261iw, cconnellyuyt7, swaldegcsj, ipennyo5ys, haburtlwsu,
h7zextl629, hronou732j, hithinnqqo, l4drtsc163, btira6218757bo,
clarussair, soltosbw9h, eriats8tq1, merianxxgu, bawbet2417634gq,
bgupok3873697ln, swalde21su, aethanwmfh, bupnet5321244ja,
bpowe1on4255457al, edhelmu4p9, bertynxnvz, voadil3tmf, farelal9uf,
legonaix6i, swalde9i2z, uponcebugc, a8twxnj084, margaritou,
abrege8bak, naydiehlmw, e9hqwnd906, gettanenwi, f5upglb654,
i2lssgd037, germieuzql, j7miekb805, hafgarzfz0, aslebyg4dx,
balethxmlr, z6fwgsd191, h0xobnt272, t5dhhhq371, weyladi5o2,
faugus11r4, tinianugpi, axminsldpc, f5cmcuq340, z0jpzax041,
s4oyypj603, w8arlss812, y4lelia856, o0vxuvv852, c8hvcve260,
h3dsxww139, d3hsrba147, mantiackso, t7wwwos090, neisnecizj,
q9cclrl275, inninks6to, ambiocnnpe, u6xiznn062, flaghypb71,
branor21kf, q4sssev630, jarlonysma, x8aaqwk566, iortuslzdb,
gwaniealcy, n9dcztw940, brennab9mq, t3hqipo117, t0garfo207,
luanonyqxf, g4fsdew389, beleifmg96, cethinvnel, voadilasgp,
othlasofcs, e4qpbwe834, k5sxyhq031, l1xiezx738, a6ibmgo847,
d4vrwun323, s9veqkc171, fridieskut, x7xjuqj638, l8dqzxt025,
boltontagt, oranceazhx, camrodzfmn, sindurjtvb, gillicadcb,
c9xruhk584, zoriussvhh, freaghpqwi, p3wkesj488, gillichhw8,
o9ktxmr530, q2chhmt236, j3hytou442, roydelgckb, jedbestwattage,
m5lzyqf415, nelsea2pk6, r5bvfkt625, h3jvijb687, n1cquef492

[Warren Dew]

(01-01-2021, 12:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Here's what I propose to do: I'll call the web host (Small Orange),
explain the situation to them, and ask them to give me cpanel access
to the web site.  I'll then go into the mysql database and make myself
a moderator, and then clear all the spam crap out, and ban the spam
crappers.

They'll just laugh at me, unless I have the support of a lot of
people.  So here's what I want you (all of you) to do: Just post a
message below saying that you support me in doing this.

You have my support.  I'm not sure there are still 10 real users of this forum, though.

[Classic-Xer]

(01-01-2021, 12:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 01-Jan-2021 World View: Saving the FT forum

Is there anyone left who wants to save this forum?  Or do you want to
let it turn completely into a garbage dump and die?

Here's what I propose to do: I'll call the web host (Small Orange),
explain the situation to them, and ask them to give me cpanel access
to the web site.  I'll then go into the mysql database and make myself
a moderator, and then clear all the spam crap out, and ban the spam
crappers.

They'll just laugh at me, unless I have the support of a lot of
people.  So here's what I want you (all of you) to do: Just post a
message below saying that you support me in doing this.

If I can get, say, ten or more forum members to support me, then I'll
try calling them, and telling them that I have the support of a bunch
of members.  They may still laugh at me, but the more support I have,
the more likely they are to listen.

Of course, if someone wants to steal my idea and do it yourself,
you're welcome to do so.  Or even better, if Rags or Sam or some other
existing moderator wants to come back and do his job, that's even
better.

You have my support.

[pbrower2a]

You have mine. I want the effective denial of service attack to end.

It's thoroughly disgusting that someone can have spam ads for fake credentials, including drivers' license (use a fake one and go to jail in some states), a fake green card (get caught with one of those and you will be deported), fake diplomas (get caught with one of those in some employment and you may end up losing your freedom as well as your job), or passport (use a fake US passport in certain countries, and you are assumed to be up to the worst -- such as espionage or drug trafficking). One creep even offers fake currency; use of fake currency of any kind is a serious crime.

[David Horn]

(01-01-2021, 10:41 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(01-01-2021, 12:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 01-Jan-2021 World View: Saving the FT forum

Is there anyone left who wants to save this forum?  Or do you want to
let it turn completely into a garbage dump and die?

Here's what I propose to do: I'll call the web host (Small Orange),
explain the situation to them, and ask them to give me cpanel access
to the web site.  I'll then go into the mysql database and make myself
a moderator, and then clear all the spam crap out, and ban the spam
crappers.

They'll just laugh at me, unless I have the support of a lot of
people.  So here's what I want you (all of you) to do: Just post a
message below saying that you support me in doing this.

If I can get, say, ten or more forum members to support me, then I'll
try calling them, and telling them that I have the support of a bunch
of members.  They may still laugh at me, but the more support I have,
the more likely they are to listen.

Of course, if someone wants to steal my idea and do it yourself,
you're welcome to do so.  Or even better, if Rags or Sam or some other
existing moderator wants to come back and do his job, that's even
better.

You have my support.

Me too.