Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-May-2021 World View: Sociopaths

(05-13-2021, 11:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Donald Trump may not be culpable in all the death, but he is
> clearly one of the worst killers in human history... if one refers
> to negligent homicide and not outright murder.

Even by your extremely low and almost nonexistent standards of
honesty, this reaches a new level of idiocy.

It's worthy of note that in the five paragraphs of garbage that you
just posted, you never once mentioned Biden's name or his repeated
crises.

It's clear to me that, like all people on the far left, you're still
addicted to Trump, and can barely function without him. Watching
MSNBC today, it's clear that the Trump addiction is morphing into a
Liz Cheney addiction. That should fill your addiction until Trump
comes back.

[David Horn]

(05-13-2021, 11:43 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-May-2021 World View: Sociopaths

(05-13-2021, 11:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Donald Trump may not be culpable in all the death, but he is clearly one of the worst killers in human history... if one refers to negligent homicide and not outright murder.

Even by your extremely low and almost nonexistent standards of honesty, this reaches a new level of idiocy.

It's worthy of note that in the five paragraphs of garbage that you just posted, you never once mentioned Biden's name or his repeated rises.

It's clear to me that, like all people on the far left, you're still addicted to Trump, and can barely function without him.  Watching MSNBC today, it's clear that the Trump addiction is morphing into a Liz Cheney addiction.  That should fill your addiction until Trump comes back.

Paul has a point though.  Trump knew full well how serious the virus was and knew it early. He told Bob Woodward, who had the guys permission to record him, that the virus was highly deadly,, and told him back in February of 2020 -- long before it took hold.  We could have dodged the entire mess.  Plenty of Asian nations did, and we were better equipped than all of them.

In comparison, Biden's crises are pretty minor.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 13-May-2021 World View: Fauci

(05-13-2021, 01:49 PM)David Horn Wrote: > Paul has a point though. Trump knew full well how serious the
> virus was and knew it early. He told Bob Woodward, who had the
> guys permission to record him, that the virus was highly deadly,,
> and told him back in February of 2020 -- long before it took
> hold. We could have dodged the entire mess. Plenty of Asian
> nations did, and we were better equipped than all of them.

> In comparison, Biden's crises are pretty minor.

I don't have the vaguest clue what you're talking about. Of course
Trump knew the virus was serious, which is why Trump shut down travel
from China and Europe, which you Democrats called xenophobic.
Remember that idiot Pelosi dancing in the streets of Chinatown calling
Trump names? I believe Biden said the same from his basement. Trump
saved millions of lives by spitting in the face of Democrats and
closing down travel anyway. Democrats have always hated that,
especially since Trump was always right, and the Democrats were always
wrong. That's always been Trump's greatest crime.

Trump was also listening to Fauci who, in those days, was saying that
masks were unnecessary, and just stay 6 feet apart.

Fauci has changed his advice multiple times, to suit the Democrats,
which is probably the reason that the Democrats love him.

In the meantime, Rand Paul is accusing Fauci of causing the pandemic,
by providing funds to the Wuhan Virology Lab that created the virus,
and let it escape into the wild.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHLPyu7wBb0

[David Horn]

(05-13-2021, 03:14 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-May-2021 World View: Fauci

(05-13-2021, 01:49 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   Paul has a point though.  Trump knew full well how serious the
>   virus was and knew it early. He told Bob Woodward, who had the
>   guys permission to record him, that the virus was highly deadly,,
>   and told him back in February of 2020 -- long before it took
>   hold. We could have dodged the entire mess.  Plenty of Asian
>   nations did, and we were better equipped than all of them.

>   In comparison, Biden's crises are pretty minor.

I don't have the vaguest clue what you're talking about.  Of course
Trump knew the virus was serious, which is why Trump shut down travel
from China and Europe, which you Democrats called xenophobic.
Remember that idiot Pelosi dancing in the streets of Chinatown calling
Trump names?  I believe Biden said the same from his basement.  Trump
saved millions of lives by spitting in the face of Democrats and
closing down travel anyway.  Democrats have always hated that,
especially since Trump was always right, and the Democrats were always
wrong.  That's always been Trump's greatest crime.

Trump was also listening to Fauci who, in those days, was saying that
masks were unnecessary, and just stay 6 feet apart.

Fauci has changed his advice multiple times, to suit the Democrats,
which is probably the reason that the Democrats love him.

In the meantime, Rand Paul is accusing Fauci of causing the pandemic,
by providing funds to the Wuhan Virology Lab that created the virus,
and let it escape into the wild.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHLPyu7wBb0

Well, you definitely have all the standard FoX talking points in hand.  FYI, Trump was saying there were only 15 cases and it would go away in public, but telling Woodward that is was already here in force. He hyped every fake cure (but took a real one for himself), and tried to fight every effort to stop the spread.  His travel bans were as porous as cheesecloth, with 40,000 arriving from China AFTER the ban.  And the Europe travel ban came after we had roughly 150,000 people arrive from infected Europe and devastate NYC, which Trump pooh-poohed as being fake.

I'll let Fauci defend himself, but it's hard to see how he could have done his job properly under Trump.

Then, there's Rand Paul with the latest in QAnon-style conspiracy nonsense.  I don't have the time to write a real response to that.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-May-21 World View -- Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel-Gaza war continues to escalate
  
• Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war
  
• Generational Dynamics analysis -- the 58-Year Rule
  
• Understanding the mainstream media
  

****
**** Israel-Gaza war continues to escalate
****


Israeli riot policeman tries to block a Jewish right-wing man as communal violence erupted in Lod on Wednesday (AP)

Communal or sectarian violence within Israel threatens a much
larger war. I'll return to that subject below.

The following are the recent developments in the war between
Israel and Hamas in Gaza:

• In the last two days, Hamas has launched over 1,500 rockets
  into Israel, targeting large population areas like Tel Aviv. The
  rocket attacks have killed six Israelis, and injured hundreds
  others.
  
  
• Israel has retaliated with airstrikes into Gaza. Israel has
  targeted large apartment buildings, which puts civilians at risk,
  because Hamas purposely stores military hardware and military offices
  side by side with civilians in these buildings. Some 96 Gaza
  civilians have been killed, and hundreds have been injured or
  displaced.
  
  
• Hamas's rockets are supplied by Iran. Hamas has built up an
  inventory of these weapons over the years. Hamas has recently
  acquired a new long-range rocket with a range of 200-250 km, which
  puts most of Israel within range.
  
  
• Hamas would like to force Israel to shut down its airspace. Hamas
  has launched rockets in the direction of Ben Gurion airport, forcing
  Israel to divert flights to Ramon airport in far southern Israel. But
  now Hamas is launching its new long-range rocket towards Ramon
  airport, but it landed in the open desert.
  
  
• Israel has called up 9,000 reservists and is massing troops and
  tanks on the border with Gaza in preparation for a possible ground
  invasion. Israel has been launching artillery attacks across the
  border into Gaza. A late announcement is that there are some ground
  troops in Gaza.
  
  
• It's estimated that there are 20-30 thousand armed Hamas and
  security personnel inside Gaza, so any Israeli ground invasion would
  mean major bloodshed for the military on both sides, and for the
  thousands of civilians caught in the crossfire in the densely
  populated Gaza Strip.

My view has been that the current war would fizzle out within a few
months, like the 2014 war. The only thing that could prevent that is
if some third country, like Egypt or Turkey, actively entered the war
on the side of Hamas.

****
**** Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war
****

However, there's a new development that changes that calculation. The
new development, which has apparently caught everyone by surprise, is
the rise of extremely bitter communal / sectarian violence between
Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. To be clear, we're talking about
Israeli citizens who have for years been living side by side within
Israeli cities and towns. About 20% of Israel's total population are
Arabs.

There have been shootings, lynchings, rock-throwing, and stabbings.
The epicenter of the ethnic violence is Lod, a city with large Jewish
and Arab populations. However, the violence has been spreading
to cities across the country.

In one case, a lynching was shown on tv in real time. In the city of
Bat Yam, a live tv broadcast showed a Jewish mob dragging a man, whom
they believed to be Palestinian, out of his car before severely
beating him. Needless to day, the video of this live broadcast
has gone viral.

"Death to Arabs" is frequently chanted in rallies throughout the
country, including Haifa and Acre in the north, as well as Lod, Jaffa,
and Tiberias.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on both Jews and Arabs to
cease attacks on each other:

<QUOTE>"Nothing justifies the lynching of Arabs by Jews and
nothing justifies the lynching of Jews by Arabs."<END QUOTE>

Maybe nothing justifies these lynchings, but it's clear that these
lynchings are going to increase in number.

****
**** Generational Dynamics analysis -- the 58-Year Rule
****

As one commentator said, there has been a "social compact" in Israel
for decades, permitting Arabs and Jews to live together side by side
in peace, but now that social compact is coming apart at the seams.

The 58-Year Rule is a significant finding of modern generational
theory. According to the Generational Dynamics 58-Year Hypothesis,
which by now has been well proven, a new ethnic civil war will not
begin less than 58 years from the end of the previous ethnic civil
war. That's because 58 years is precisely amount the time when the
generations of survivors of the preceding war all die or retire, all
at once, and the younger post-war generations come to power. It has
now been 73 years since the end of the last ethnic civil war, the war
between Jews and Arabs that occurred with the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, and so
Israel is fully ripe for a new ethnic civil war, and that seems to be
what's happening.

Two recent examples of ethnic civil wars are the Rwanda war of 1994
and the Bosnian war of 1995. In Rwanda and Bosnia, populations had
intermarried and were living on the same streets, where their children
had played together. But that did not stop someone from picking up a
machete, going next door, killing the father and children, raping the
wife, killing her, and then cutting them all up into mangled pieces.
These examples are the rule, not the exception, for ethnic civil wars.

So as long as the war between Israel and Gaza is at the top level
government levels, then the top-down war is likely to fizzle out, as I
said. But when the war is organic and bottom-up, then it's likely to
spread into a much wider war, crossing into neighboring countries.

So for those of you who can take a breather from Washington politics
and want to watch what's going on in the world, this is the place to
watch. If the communal violence dies down, then a larger war will be
avoided, for the time being. But if the communal violence grows and
spreads, it will probably engulf the entire Mideast.

As regular readers know (since I've written it many times),
Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and
Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs,
re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war,
pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic
groups against each other.

****
**** Understanding the mainstream media
****

This is a completely separate subject. The following text is
something that I posted in the Generational Dynamics forum that may be
of interest to a larger audience.

The problem is that media sources have become dishonest and
censorious, and so the question is: Who is to be believed?

But after writing thousands of articles over almost 20 years, I've
developed a pretty good intuition about who in the media is telling
the truth and who is bullshitting.

I should probably put together a whole big article on the subject, but
here are some sample conclusions:

CNN, MSNBC, AP, Tehran Times, Russia Today, China Daily are all
similar in that they're "state media," and just parrot the government
line uncritically.

Fox News generally lives up to its "fair and balanced" claim, since
they present both sides of issues pretty fairly.

For international news, the BBC is pretty good, but when it reports on
American news, which it does all the time, it's the same as CNN and
MSNBC. BBC receives a great deal of funding from NPR, and so it is
required to follow the same Democrat party talking points.

Al-Jazeera is also pretty good with international news. But you'll
never see a negative story about Qatar. Also, they hate Israel, and
they hate the Palestinian Authority even more, but they love Hamas.
But for Asian news they're pretty good. Oh, and they hate America,
and they REALLY hate Trump.

AFP is pretty good for Mideast, Asian and African news. VOA and RFERL
are pretty reliable.

Reuters is an interesting case, because I've found them to be almost
always completely fair and balanced. I believe that the reason is
that Thomson Reuters is an Canadian company, so they have a wholly
different view of the world.

When I'm writing an international story, I have to use each news
source in a credible way. For example, I'll consider China Daily or
Global Times to be an accurate statement of China's political
position, and I would consider them more credible on this subject
than, say, Reuters or AP or the BBC. On the other hand, the BBC is
much more credible about China's actions.

In an international story, like the Israel-Palestine story of today, I
don't want to take sides, so I try to find accounts from each side,
ideally to quote them in parallel. This is not always easy to do.

And of course I'm always guided by previous Generational Dynamics
conclusions. For example, I've known for decades that there will
never be a "two-state solution" in the Mideast, so I know
automatically that any policitian who talks about it is full of crap.

So maybe at some point I'll expand this into a more comprehensive
article.

Sources:

• Gaza-Israel conflict heading 'towards a full-scale war' as violence escalates (Telegraph, London, 12-May-2021)
  
• Israel in chaos: 10 Border Police units called up to quell Arab-Jewish violence (Jerusalem Post, 13-May-2021)
  
• 'Lynchings' on streets of Israel: Mob drag 'Arab man' out of his car and beat him after he 'tried to ram them' - as violent far-right protests break out in cities across the country (Daily Mail, London, 12-May-2021)
  
• IRGC Aerospace Force And Missile Unit Commander Hajizadeh: 'All The Missile Might You See In Gaza... Was Created With Iran's Support... And This Effort Has Continued Around The Clock For Years' (Memri, 13-May-2021)
  
• Hamas, Islamic Jihad Officials: Iran Provides Our Missiles, Weapons, Funds, And Food, Our Gunmen 'Were Trained By Our Brothers In The IRGC'; Without Iran's Assistance, We Wouldn't Be Able To Fire Rockets At Tel Aviv; Qassem Soleimani Personally Oversaw Transfer Of Rockets To Gaza (Memri, 12-May-2021)
  
• Israel masses troops at Gaza border as president warns of ‘senseless civil war’ (Evening Standard, London, 13-May-2021)
  
• Israel threatens Gaza ground invasion despite truce efforts (AP, 13-May-2021)
  
• Israel declares ground assault on Gaza as crisis deepens (Telegraph, London, 13-May-2021)
  
• Soldier viciously beaten in Jaffa, synagogue burned in Lod as rioting renews (Times Of Israel, 13-May-2021)
  
• Israeli president warns of civil war as Jews, Arabs clash over Gaza (Reuters, 13-May-2021)
  
• Lod: Why an Israeli town's mayor is warning of civil war (BBC, 12-May-2021)
  
• Three rockets fired from Lebanon towards Israel, no injuries (Jerusalem Post, 13-May-2021)
  
• Israeli Defense Minister Threatens 'Gaza Will Burn' as IDF Readies Plans for Ground Invasion (Common Dreams, 13-May-2021)

Related Articles:

• Violence escalates between Israelis and Palestinians in Jerusalem and Gaza (11-May-2021)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Tel Aviv, Lod, Iran, Ben Gurion airport, Ramon airport,
58-Year Rule, China, Pakistan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

(05-13-2021, 11:43 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-May-2021 World View: Sociopaths

(05-13-2021, 11:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   Donald Trump may not be culpable in all the death, but he is
>   clearly one of the worst killers in human history... if one refers
>   to negligent homicide and not outright murder.

Even by your extremely low and almost nonexistent standards of
honesty, this reaches a new level of idiocy.

I wish that what I posted were either wrong, dishonest, or hysterical. In any event, some of the greatest tragedies of lethal incompetence come from post-seasonal behavior. Donald Trump makes the assumption that all human concerns boil down to hedonism, the sex drive, and material gain, which is a thoroughly Third-Turning world-view In a Fourth Turning (Crisis) such an assumption colors policy, then the resulting policy can be consummately tragic even without malign intent. Malign intent, as with extremists of Right and Left intent on reshaping the world permanently without concern for the destructive cost, leads to deep tragedy in mass death from wars, revolutions, massacres, mutinies, famines, and purges. One need not have evil intent to get horrific results (Nicholas II of Russia). It is often enough to be shielded from the consequences of one's choices.  

Donald Trump is a vile person. I start with his mockery of a handicapped person. I took a college-level course on human development whose focus was the predictable changes in human behavior in a lifetime. Intellectual development (mental age) was one aspect, but emotional development is another. Emotional maturity does not ensure that one will be factually right, but it does ensure that one will be more able to change behavior when confronted with undeniable facts, including consequences to others. People of limited intellect can be protected from the consequences of incompetence beyond narrow roles in life; these are the people whom society limits to work with rigid rules so that they can make slight contributions (as in repetitive tasks in factories and shops) without being exploited or conned. Such people are vulnerable and they deserve protection; if they do not get protection and are exploited or tricked, then others end up paying. 

Emotional immaturity is much more dangerous. Emotional maturity and intellectual maturity usually go together, but when they do not, the lack of emotional maturity does far more harm. Someone of low IQ but average EQ can do servile or menial work without creating too many problems. Such a person may need more protection and guidance, but rigorous faith and a watchful family may solve that.  The person of average-to-high IQ but low EQ is the sort who thinks that something is illegal only if one gets caught or immoral if it causes harm to oneself. Thus at the extreme Ted "Unabom" Kaczynski, a brilliant scholar of mathematics who could not cope with normal expectations of personal behavior. Such people have no personal or institutional loyalties, and if things go wrong for them they lead any personal following into ruin. Think of cult leaders like Osama bin Laden, David Koresh, Charles Manson, Marshall Applewhite, Ervil LeBaron, Shoko Asahara, and of course the bulk of political despots whose names I need not mention. 

Donald Trump gave plenty of warning signals starting in his ruthless techniques in business, his sexual depravity, his marital infidelity, and his mockery of the handicapped. Before I was ten I noticed that people my age were rarely making "handicap" jokes. At some point one says of the blind, deaf, or crippled, "There but for the Grace of God go I". 
 

Quote:It's worthy of note that in the five paragraphs of garbage that you
just posted, you never once mentioned Biden's name or his repeated
crises.

Donald Trump left behind a giant mess in his Presidency, including a cult of personality that can induce people to do horrible things (like the Capitol Putsch) in his name. To be sure we have fewer diplomatic disasters because foreign leaders not complicit with him chose to wait him out (See Donald Trump. See Angela Merkel. Watch sparks fly). Maybe because we have gotten past the financial depravities of the last completed 3T (the Texas real-estate/lending fraud of the 1980's, the dot.com implosion and the madness of Enron, and finally the housing and lending fraud of the Double-Zero Decade) America is now inoculated from speculative bubbles of the sort that hollow leaders promote and excuse, so we are fairly safe from a financial panic. Administrative chaos is exactly what one get with a leader who butters people up and then stabs them in the back.

OK, so Joe Biden isn't Francis of Assisi. Who is? 

Quote:It's clear to me that, like all people on the far left, you're still
addicted to Trump, and can barely function without him.  Watching
MSNBC today, it's clear that the Trump addiction is morphing into a
Liz Cheney addiction.  That should fill your addiction until Trump
comes back.

I have no delusion that Representative Cheney is a neoliberal reactionary who still truly believes in the Reagan ideology as does her father. But when Trump's followers can cast her to the wolves because she tells some undeniable truths about a despicable person and the cause around him, we Democrats can rightly see something terribly wrong with the purge within the GOP. We have the example of Weimar Germany to demonstrate the consequences of the absence of conservatism with moral principle. Class interest, the cornerstone of the DNVP, is not enough. The industrial magnates and big landowners found their way to Adolf Hitler when he promised to eviscerate trade unions and restore master-serf conditions on the landed estates of the Junkers while butchering Communists. Class interest is a very low standard of morality. But flawed as Representative Cheney is she is far better than skirt-chasing Donald Trump, the Q-anon cult, and the racists and religious bigots. Ronald Reagan left no doubt of his contempt for the neo-Nazi and KKK pigs when they showed signs of violence; Trump has excused such.

You may accuse me rightly of moral relativism on people with whom I generally disagree (yes, I see a huge difference between Schuschnigg and Metaxas on the one side and Hitler on the other, or Kadar and Jaruzelski on the one side of the Commie perversion and Pol Pot) but not on my own side. I want Andrew Cuomo... to vacate the Governorship of New York.

[Tim Randal Walker]

58-Year Rule....

Those with childhood memories of the last Crisis would be retiring/vacating the institutions.

Those with adult memories of the last Crisis would be quite old, and dying off.

[pbrower2a]

(05-14-2021, 02:54 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: 58-Year Rule....

Those with childhood memories of the last Crisis would be retiring/vacating the institutions.

Those with adult memories of the last Crisis would be quite old, and dying off.

That specifically explains the last 3T. 1924 and 1925 make a good approximation of the divide between those old enough to recognize that something was screwy leading to the Great Stock Market Crash and those who had to learn such from schools or family members. Childhood memories are powerful and they last a lifetime. Consider how things were with the financial industry: beginning in 1933 the bankers were compelled to sacrifice the potential for large entrepreneurial gains so that they could be the guard dogs of Other People's Money. They were obliged to be the cautionaries in what could be a reckless economy in which shysters competed with promises against people who offered more modest gains. The shysters would typically crash and burn because they neglected something basic -- such as that the only good business was ultimately good for its customers, employees, and investors alike. Bankers beginning in the 1930's learned to compel would-be borrowers to put more collateral at risk and to show a more modest business model than "the sky is the limit" before lending the money. After all, bankers were the recycling business in capital, typically lending the returns of capital as new loans. It worked.  

If as in the late 1920's a real-estate huckster (like the George Babbitt of the novel bearing his surname) could say things like "The Good Lord isn't creating any more land" during the 1920's, the inference of the 1930's was that the Good Lord wasn't churning out enough new suckers. Speculative booms depend upon suckers scared of losing out, and financial panics result when the boom runs out of suckers willing to pay too much for what they get. GI kids generally recognized that any promise needed backing, and that fleece deals were bad for the system as a whole.

Fast forward 58 years from the Great Stock Market Crash, and it is 1987. That is 3T. OK, even before that was a huge real-estate fraud involving crooked financing in Texas. Texas developers were promising ridiculous rates of return on investment -- rates of return that could never be met. The Inevitable happened.

[pbrower2a]

Erratum: the canal in question was the White Sea Canal, absurdly-costly (in human lives), and materially-wasteful effort of dubious economic merit to connect the Gulf of Finland to the Arctic Ocean and not some "Black Sea Canal".



Agitprop propaganda poster used to motivate convict laborers during the construction. The writing says: 'Canal Army soldier! The heat of your work will melt your prison term!'

[David Horn]

(05-13-2021, 09:51 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 14-May-21 World View -- Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war

My view has been that the current war would fizzle out within a few months, like the 2014 war.  The only thing that could prevent that is if some third country, like Egypt or Turkey, actively entered the war on the side of Hamas...

However, there's a new development that changes that calculation.  The new development, which has apparently caught everyone by surprise, is the rise of extremely bitter communal / sectarian violence between Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs.  To be clear, we're talking about Israeli citizens who have for years been living side by side within Israeli cities and towns.  About 20% of Israel's total population are Arabs.

I agree with this (surprise!).  Hamas has a benefactor-client relationship with Iran, and this may be the inside-outside effort that starts a real war. Worse, Israel has shifted so far to the right that even Bibi Netanyahu is now a "moderate".   Are the Israelis now the autocratic "other" that we tend to oppose?  They've certainly tried their damnedest to make that true.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-May-21 World View -- Will there be a third Palestinian Intifada?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• History of Palestinian Intifadas
  
• Yassir Arafat vs Ariel Sharon
  
• The decline of Mahmoud Abbas
  
• Can Mahmoud Abbas prevent a Third Intifada from occurring?
  
• Can Joe Biden bring peace to the Mideast?
  

****
**** History of Palestinian Intifadas
****


Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday -- can he prevent a Third Intifada (AFP)

Previously, I've described a new an unexpected development in the
current war between Israel and the Palestinians. The new development,
which has apparently caught everyone by surprise, is the rise of
extremely bitter communal / sectarian violence between Israeli Jews
and Israeli Arabs. (See "14-May-21 World View -- Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war"
)

The purpose of this article is to explain in further detail the
significance of this violence, and the role of the "58-Year Rule" of
generational theory.

Today's violence is occurring on both the Jewish and Arab sides, but
it's being characterized by some as a "Third Intifada," a general
street uprising of Palestinian people against the Israeli government
and people.

There have been two previous Intifadas. The first began in December
1987 in Gaza and spread to the West Bank. It consisted of massive
peaceful protests, demonstrations, strikes, boycotts, and riots. It
began to die off fairly quickly, and officially ended in September
1993 with the signing of the Oslo Accords agreement, which was
supposed to provide peace between Israelis and Palestinians, but never
did anything of the sort. In the late 1990s, Hamas was formed and
carried out a series of suicide attacks against Israeli targets, while
Israelis continued to build settlements in the West Bank, with both
sides violating the Oslo Accords.

The Oslo Accords broke down in 2000, resulting in the Second Intifada,
which began in September 2000 and was an armed rebellion by
Palestinian militias, including Hamas and Fatah, against Israeli
security forces, and against Israeli civilians using suicide bombings.
The violence only began to subside in 2005, after the deaths of about
3,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis.

****
**** Yassir Arafat vs Ariel Sharon
****

During the Second Intifida, the leaders of the Palestinians and
Israelis were, respectively, Yassir Arafat and Ariel Sharon. On May
1, 2003, I posted my first major Generational Dynamics analysis,
predicting that President George Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace"
peace plan would fail, because the Jews and the Palestinians would be
re-fighting the bloody 1948 war that followed the partitioning of
Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. (Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003))

In that article, I wrote the following:

<QUOTE>"There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast
today, in that the leaders of two opposing sides are,
respectively, Ariel Sharon and Yassir Arafat.

These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating
with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast
conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and
neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And
it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in
charge."<END QUOTE>

Although I didn't write the following, I suspected that Sharon and
Arafat were actually cooperating in back channels to prevent the
violence from turning into a full-fledged civil war.

Why would they do that? They would do that because they had both
survived the ethnic civil war in 1948-49. In my article earlier this
week, I gave an example of what happened during Rwanda's ethnic civil
war: Populations had intermarried and were living on the same streets,
where their children had played together. But that did not stop
someone from picking up a machete, going next door, killing the father
and children, raping the wife, killing her, and then cutting them all
up into mangled pieces. These examples are the rule, not the
exception, for ethnic civil wars. Crisis wars are like forces of
nature; you can no more stop a crisis war than you can stop a tsunami.

That example is from the Rwanda war, but you can be absolutely certain
that similar things happened during the 1948-49 ethnic civil war
between Arabs and Jews. Both Arafat and Sharon had lived during that
war. They may have personally participated in or ordered these kinds
of atrocities. Nobody goes through experiences like that without
being completely traumatized. Preventing a repeat of those
experiences becomes an overwhelming goal, much more important than
fighting another war, even a "justified" war.

It goes much deeper than that. Not only Arafat and Sharon, but also
millions of Palestinians and Israelis had lived through the 1948-49
war and were similarly traumatized. That's why, during the Second
Intifada, there was relatively little contact between civilian Jews
and Arabs, and most of the violence was more or less organized,
through militias and security police.

When Yassir Arafat died in November 2004, I wrote the following:

<QUOTE>"Yes, he was a brutal, vicious terrorist. Yes he was
a liar and maybe even a crook. Yes, he approved suicide bombings
that killed Jewish children.

But for a man in his position, approving suicide bombings was the
lesser of two evils. The greater evil was unleashing a new
genocidal war, one that would kill many more Jewish and Arab
children than suicide bombings do."<END QUOTE>

Mahmoud Abbas, born in 1935, took Arafat's place. He was also a
survivor of the 1948-49 war, and did not radically change Arafat's
policies. Today, Abbas is facing the possibility of leading the
Palestinians through a Third Intifada.

****
**** The decline of Mahmoud Abbas
****

I have often seen Al-Jazeera's political analyst Marwan Bishara
discuss Mideast topics. It's always been clear that he hates Israel
but, notably, it's also been clear that he hates Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah
even more than he hates Israel. He considers Abbas to be a historic
traitor to the Palestinians, because he negotiates with the Israelis
to keep the peace, and the West Bank security forces cooperate with
the Israeli security forces for the same reason.

So I listened to Bishara rant for a long time on Saturday.
He wonders why the Israelis are killing innocent Palestinians.
He wants the US, the UK and the EU all to condemn Israel for
its practices, and to force Israel to accept a ceasefire with
Hamas.

It's not surprising that Bishara sharply disagrees with Abbas.
Abbas was born in 1935 and lived through the 1948-49 war. Bishara
was born in 1969, and knows nothing about the war except what
Palestinian activists have told him. So he welcomes a Third
Intifada, because the Palestinians might finally achieve their
dreams of freedom -- whatever that means.

Abbas opposes a Third Intifada. He believes that the Second Intifada
was a disaster for Palestinians. His unstated reason is that it is
absolutely certain that Abbas remembers the traumatizing atrocities of
the 1948-49 war. He is old enough to remember them, and he's also old
enough to recognize that it's happening again. Israel's prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu was forced to go on television and tell
the nation: "Nothing justifies the lynching of Arabs by Jews and
nothing justifies the lynching of Jews by Arabs." For him to make
that announcement reveals that horrible things are happening today
and, indeed, news reports confirm that.

****
**** Can Mahmoud Abbas prevent a Third Intifada from occurring?
****

Mahmoud Abbas is now 85 years old. I reported years ago that polls
shows young Palestinians were almost unanimous in disliking Abbas.
They consider him a failure for any number of reasons, the most
obvious one being that, 27 years after the Oslo Accords, almost
nothing has changed for the Palestinians. Young Palestinians dislike
Hamas leaders almost as much.

In my article last week, I described how the 58-Year Rule applies.
The generations people who lived through the 1948-49 war were all
traumatized by the horrors and atrocities. We've found that these
generations all retire and die around the same time, 58 years after
the end of such a war, which would have been 2006-2007. That's why
the First and Second Intifadas fizzled. There were too many people
around who were traumatized by the last war, and would do anything to
keep it from happening again.

But that's not true today. Abbas is still around, but almost everyone
else from that generation of survivors is gone. That's the difference
between Mahmoud Abbas and Marwan Bishara. Bishara has no personal
knows of the wars atrocities, so he couldn't care less if there's
another ethnic civil war. He and many other young people welcome it,
because they have fantasies that they'll be free an that Israel will
be pushed into the sea.

So, can Mahmoud Abbas prevent a Third Intifada from occurring? Can an
85 year old extremely unpopular leader stop a force of nature? If I
had to bet (and fortunately I don't), I would bet that he can't. Or
if he can, he can stop it only temporarily.

****
**** Can Joe Biden bring peace to the Mideast?
****

On Saturday, there was a panel of journalists on the BBC discussing
the Israel-Palestine situation. The hostility to Israel among these
journalists is enormous, and not surprising. And it's worth noting
that there are anti-Israel demonstrations going on in cities around
the world.

One person said, "I'm going to say something very controversial.
[long pause] If Donald Trump were president, this would not have
happened."

Instead of the usual screaming, this comment was met with silence,
which I interpreted as tacit agreement.

According to these journalists, Biden was hoping to avoid having to
deal with the Mideast, since he wanted to focus on getting a new
nuclear agreement with Iran, and ending the sanctions. This would now
be very controversial, since Iran is funding Hamas. But the
journalists are blaming Biden for the Mideast war, saying that he has
been ignoring the Palestinian problem in favor of the Iran policy.

So the narrative is growing that the Mideast war is Israel's fault,
and it's also Biden's fault because Biden is not holding back Israel,
and forcing Israel to agree to a ceasefire.

In Washington, Democrats like AOC are demanding that Biden end all
funding to Israel, and force Israel to accept a ceasefire under terms
dictated by Hamas. Republicans are angry that Biden has been taking a
wrecking ball to all aspects of America's domestic and foreign policy,
and is giving money to the Palestinians, which they are using to buy
weapons from Iran, which Biden is also supporting.

So this is shaping up to be a major political issue in America.
Meanwhile, the Israel-Palestine war is continuing to escalate, and
will continue to do so no matter what Biden does.

Sources:

• With Israel and Gaza already beset by chaos, West Bank ‘explosion’ looms (Times Of Israel, 14-May-2021)
  
• Several Palestinians killed by Israeli fire in West Bank protests (Al-Jazeera, 14-May-2021)
  
• Is This the Third Intifada? (Slate, 15-May-2021)
  
• Thousands attend rallies in Irish cities in solidarity with Palestine (Irish Times, 15-May-2021)
  
• Latest conflict exposes impotence of Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority (Irish Times, 14-May-2021)
  
• Intifada -- Palestinian-Israeli history (Britannica)
  
• Fear over Lebanese intrusion grows, Metulla residents told to stay indoors (Jerusalem Post, 14-May-2021)

Related Articles:

• Communal violence within Israel threatens much wider war (14-May-2021)
  
  
• Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan (29-Jan-2020)
  
  
• Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003)
  
• Yasser Arafat dies (14-Nov-2004)
  
  
• Ariel Sharon - Israel's political earthquake (29-Nov-2005)
  
• How do unrealistically high expectations affect the world? (08-Jan-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, West Bank, Palestine,
First Intifada, Second Intifada, Third Intifada,
Oslo Accords, Hamas, Fatah, Yassir Arafat, Ariel Sharon,
Mahmoud Abbas, Marwan Bishara, Benjamin Netanyahu

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[David Horn]

(05-15-2021, 08:49 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 16-May-21 World View -- Will there be a third Palestinian Intifada?

... So the narrative is growing that the Mideast war is Israel's fault, and it's also Biden's fault because Biden is not holding back Israel, and forcing Israel to agree to a ceasefire.

In Washington, Democrats like AOC are demanding that Biden end all funding to Israel, and force Israel to accept a ceasefire under terms dictated by Hamas.  Republicans are angry that Biden has been taking a wrecking ball to all aspects of America's domestic and foreign policy, and is giving money to the Palestinians, which they are using to buy weapons from Iran, which Biden is also supporting.

So this is shaping up to be a major political issue in America.  Meanwhile, the Israel-Palestine war is continuing to escalate, and will continue to do so no matter what Biden does.

Reality check: 

1. The extremists in Israel are not any less extreme than the extremists in Hamas.  That's a sad commentary, but it's sadly the case.  Worse, they are in power.
   
2. Totally disenfranchising an entire people is not a prescription for peace.  With the 2-state solution now dead, what do the Palestinians have to lose by being belligerent?
   
3. The only alternative, a 1-state solution, will require an apartheid regime if Israel is to remain the sole Jewish state.  Are we OK with that?  We weren't in South Africa.
   
4. Netanyahu actually threw-in with the Trumpists  and evangelicals 100%.  That's a declining political play, and one due for the wilderness soon.  It's also stupid, when that splinter of one party is out of power and may remain so for along time or even permanently.  The Know Nothings collapsed and the comparison to the Trumpists is apt.
   
5. US minority communities are not impressed by the plight of the overbearing Israelis.  When the strong overreact to the weak, they lose support just like the police have here.
   

I can do this all day, but, unlike you, I have a life outside politics.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-May-2021 World View: Joe Biden policies

(05-14-2021, 12:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I wish that what I posted were either wrong, dishonest, or
> hysterical.

Your wish is granted.

(05-14-2021, 12:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Donald Trump is a vile person.

Sure. And Joe Biden, who grew up at a time when White Democrats were
lynching black boys, and White Democrats were raping young black girls
with impunity, is still furious that the Republicans freed the slaves
and the White Democrats lost the civil war. Biden would like to
return to his highly erotic childhood days, when White Democrats
ruled, and could murder, rape and pillage as desired.

So the White Democrats are adopting policies to encourage more mass
slaughter of black-on-black violence in cities, and are even releasing
criminals from prisons so they can go out and kill more blacks. Down
on the border, the White Democrats are encouraging the cartels to
import massive amounts of Fentynal into the country, so that it can go
into black neighborhoods and give White Democrat operatives the
opportunity to control the black males and rape the black women. The
White Democrats are also encouraging rapes and sexual assault on the
border, so that new babies will grow up to be White or Latino
Democrats. The White Democrats are also encouraging their antifa-blm
militias to attack small businesses, particularly targeting poor black
neighborhoods, to give White Democrat operatives the opportunity to
control the black males and rape the black women. White Democrats
want to defund the police so that they can rape more black women
without being caught, and more black males can kill each other. This
is the White Democrats' revenge for losing the Civil War, and for
Republicans freeing the slaves.

That's also the reason why Democrats love the Chinese Communist Party
so much. The White Democrats admire how the CCP is enslaving the
Uighurs, and they'd like to do the same to re-enslave the blacks,
starting with copying CCP "re-education camps" by indoctrinating
all the schools with vile "Critical Race Theory."

So you see, Brower, however bad you claim Trump was, Biden is
exponentially MUCH worse and MUCH more vile.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-May-2021 World View: Extremists

(05-16-2021, 08:23 AM)David Horn Wrote: > 1. The extremists in Israel are not any less extreme than the
> extremists in Hamas. That's a sad commentary, but it's sadly the
> case. Worse, they are in power.

You've obviously missed the point. Yes, the extremists in the younger
generations are equally extreme on both sides. That's why the levels
of Jew-Arab communal violence have been increasing, and might possibly
escalate into a full ethnic civil war.

(05-16-2021, 08:23 AM)David Horn Wrote: > I can do this all day, but, unlike you, I have a life outside
> politics.

That's why I know so much more than you, and why you know so little,
since all you know is the highly censored information provided by
state media like CNN.

[David Horn]

(05-16-2021, 09:05 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 16-May-2021 World View: Extremists

(05-16-2021, 08:23 AM)David Horn Wrote: 1. The extremists in Israel are not any less extreme than the extremists in Hamas.  That's a sad commentary, but it's sadly the case. Worse, they are in power.

You've obviously missed the point.  Yes, the extremists in the younger generations are equally extreme on both sides.  That's why the levels of Jew-Arab communal violence have been increasing, and might possibly escalate into a full ethnic civil war.

So why back one group of extremists over another group with a similar profile? Frankly, the Israelis are burning through their legitimacy at a prodigious rate. Soon, even their advocate will have to agree, and then what?

John J. Xenakis Wrote:

David Horn Wrote:I can do this all day, but, unlike you, I have a life outside politics.

That's why I know so much more than you, and why you know so little, since all you know is the highly censored information provided by state media like CNN.

Or why you're so OCD that you can't focus on anything outside your narrow view of the world. Seeing Fox News as anything other than a propaganda bullhorn for the extreme right is telling.

[pbrower2a]

[quote pid='77042' dateline='1621172933']

John J. Xenakis Wrote:** 16-May-2021 World View: Joe Biden policies

(05-14-2021, 12:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   I wish that what I posted were either wrong, dishonest, or
>   hysterical.

Your wish is granted.

You aren't God, so you cannot change history. I put great fault on Donald Trump for trivializing the dangers of COVID-19 when many politicians (not all of them Democrats), much of Big Business, and even the Pope  abandoned business-as-usual until they could figure out what was going on. Trump had those big rallies that proved to be super-spreader events. 

Quote:

(05-14-2021, 12:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   Donald Trump is a vile person.

Sure.  And Joe Biden, who grew up at a time when White Democrats were
lynching black boys, and White Democrats were raping young black girls
with impunity, is still furious that the Republicans freed the slaves
and the White Democrats lost the civil war.  Biden would like to
return to his highly erotic childhood days, when White Democrats
ruled, and could murder, rape and pillage as desired.

No sequitur. The white Democrats of the early 1960's in the Mountain and Deep South who did not remember the New Deal improving their lives went Republican, often in response to the rise of the Religious Right. They became no less racist, and no less sympathetic to the Lost Cause. 

Quote:So the White Democrats are adopting policies to encourage more mass
slaughter of black-on-black violence in cities, and are even releasing
criminals from prisons so they can go out and kill more blacks.  Down
on the border, the White Democrats are encouraging the cartels to
import massive amounts of Fentynal into the country, so that it can go
into black neighborhoods and give White Democrat operatives the
opportunity to control the black males and rape the black women.  The
White Democrats are also encouraging rapes and sexual assault on the
border, so that new babies will grow up to be White or Latino
Democrats.  The White Democrats are also encouraging their antifa-blm
militias to attack small businesses, particularly targeting poor black
neighborhoods, to give White Democrat operatives the opportunity to
control the black males and rape the black women.  White Democrats
want to defund the police so that they can rape more black women
without being caught, and more black males can kill each other.  This
is the White Democrats' revenge for losing the Civil War, and for
Republicans freeing the slaves.

Huh? It's white people who are now the big consumers of illicit drugs. Many of the "offenders" being released have been convicted of what are now trivial charges of dealing or using marijuana.  Fentanol is now the big, bad drug, supplanting meth.

Quote:That's also the reason why Democrats love the Chinese Communist Party
so much.  The White Democrats admire how the CCP is enslaving the
Uighurs, and they'd like to do the same to re-enslave the blacks,
starting with copying CCP "re-education camps" by indoctrinating
all the schools with vile "Critical Race Theory."

Who, me?

Quote:So you see, Brower, however bad you claim Trump was, Biden is
exponentially MUCH worse and MUCH more vile.

(deleted as pointless, vulgar, and offensive)

You proved nothing. When I post a derogatory depiction of Donald Trump, it is on the semi-satirical thread mocking him or it usually comes with documentation.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-May-2021 World View: Horn's Puppetmaster

(05-16-2021, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: > So why back one group of extremists over another group with a
> similar profile? Frankly, the Israelis are burning through their
> legitimacy at a prodigious rate. Soon, even their advocate will
> have to agree, and then what?

I don't know who you're referring to, but I'm just reporting what's
going on. People who hate Israel think I'm pro-Israel, and people
who hate the Palestinians think that I'm pro-Palestinian. But I
see both of them heading for a war that will be cataclysmic for
both of them.

(05-16-2021, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: > Or why you're so OCD that you can't focus on anything outside your
> narrow view of the world. Seeing Fox News as anything other than a
> propaganda bullhorn for the extreme right is telling.

I write articles about what's going on in the whole world. You
Democrats see nothing but your hatred for 75 million Tea Partiers and
Trump supporters. So you have the obsessive, bigoted "narrow view,"
not me.

Your characterization of Fox News is completely wrong, but how would
you even know, one way or the other? You have no idea what's going on
in the world (except, ironically, for the information you get from my
articles). All you know about the world is what you get from the
heavily censored state media, like CNN. You know nothing except what
your Democrat Party Puppetmasters want you to know. You say nothing
except what your Democrat Party Puppetmasters want you to say.

So your puppetmaster say, "Puppet Horn, go forth and say that Fox News
is a propaganda bullhorn for the extreme right! Do it now!"

You don't even know what that means. But why should you? You're just
Puppet Horn. Puppets like Puppet Horn just have to mouth the words
they've been told. They have no need to understand them.

So you say, "Yes, Puppetmaster, yes sir!"

And you go forth and say, "Fox News is a propaganda bullhorn for the
extreme right!"

And even though that sentence is totally meaningless to your
indentured brain, you say it anyway, because you're a good puppet.
You're The Great Puppet Horn!

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-May-2021 World View: Vulgar and Offensive

(05-16-2021, 03:28 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > (deleted as pointless, vulgar, and offensive)

Everything I wrote was pointful and true. But it's hilarious to see
you whining about "vulgar and offensive," since you've barely written
a word for the last five years that wasn't vulgar and offensive to the
75 million Tea Partiers and Trump Supporters. For you and other
Democrats, being vulgar and offensive is just who you are.

[David Horn]

(05-17-2021, 09:02 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 17-May-2021 World View: Horn's Puppetmaster

(05-16-2021, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   So why back one group of extremists over another group with a
>   similar profile? Frankly, the Israelis are burning through their
>   legitimacy at a prodigious rate. Soon, even their advocate will
>   have to agree, and then what?

I don't know who you're referring to, but I'm just reporting what's
going on.  People who hate Israel think I'm pro-Israel, and people
who hate the Palestinians think that I'm pro-Palestinian.  But I
see both of them heading for a war that will be cataclysmic for
both of them.

(05-16-2021, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   Or why you're so OCD that you can't focus on anything outside your
>   narrow view of the world. Seeing Fox News as anything other than a
>   propaganda bullhorn for the extreme right is telling.

I write articles about what's going on in the whole world.  You
Democrats see nothing but your hatred for 75 million Tea Partiers and
Trump supporters.  So you have the obsessive, bigoted "narrow view,"
not me.

Your characterization of Fox News is completely wrong, but how would
you even know, one way or the other?  You have no idea what's going on
in the world (except, ironically, for the information you get from my
articles).  All you know about the world is what you get from the
heavily censored state media, like CNN.  You know nothing except what
your Democrat Party Puppetmasters want you to know.  You say nothing
except what your Democrat Party Puppetmasters want you to say.

So your puppetmaster say, "Puppet Horn, go forth and say that Fox News
is a propaganda bullhorn for the extreme right!  Do it now!"

You don't even know what that means.  But why should you?  You're just
Puppet Horn.  Puppets like Puppet Horn just have to mouth the words
they've been told.  They have no need to understand them.

So you say, "Yes, Puppetmaster, yes sir!"

And you go forth and say, "Fox News is a propaganda bullhorn for the
extreme right!"

And even though that sentence is totally meaningless to your
indentured brain, you say it anyway, because you're a good puppet.
You're The Great Puppet Horn!

I've made the pilgrimage to Fox for the "healing" waters. Sorry, but even a rank novice can see through their mist.  It's impossible to ignore the 6th of January, but Fox managed it nonetheless.  And the drivel they spread when it's directly offset by video of the events they misrepresent should be enough to seal the deal. Apparently not.

January 6th was only the worst of many misrepresentations.  If it happens once or twice, it may be accidental or just sloppy. If it happens constantly, it's intentional and possibly slanderous... yet you persist.

[pbrower2a]

(05-17-2021, 09:02 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

Quote:** 17-May-2021 World View: Horn's Puppetmaster

(05-16-2021, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   So why back one group of extremists over another group with a
>   similar profile? Frankly, the Israelis are burning through their
>   legitimacy at a prodigious rate. Soon, even their advocate will
>   have to agree, and then what?

I don't know who you're referring to, but I'm just reporting what's
going on.  People who hate Israel think I'm pro-Israel, and people
who hate the Palestinians think that I'm pro-Palestinian.  But I
see both of them heading for a war that will be cataclysmic for
both of them.

OK, so you are as objective as anyone about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

But not on American politics:

Quote: David Horn
[quote pid='77046' dateline='1621190573']
>   Or why you're so OCD that you can't focus on anything outside your
>   narrow view of the world. Seeing Fox News as anything other than a
>   propaganda bullhorn for the extreme right is telling.

I write articles about what's going on in the whole world.  You
Democrats see nothing but your hatred for 75 million Tea Partiers and
Trump supporters.  So you have the obsessive, bigoted "narrow view,"
not me.

Mass delusions are nothing new, as with the long-held commonplace view that the Earth is flat. 

In general, Trump support is closely connected to Tea Party ideology. Tea Party ideology, like all other ideologies, are based upon moral precepts that the rest of Humanity may not share. I associate Tea party pols with their voting habits, and that is where one finds their moral universe. In practice that means that unless it involves some personal vice not favorable to the enrichment, pampering, and indulgence of existing elites (they are against drugs; they seem to stand for sexual restraint except for procreation; they seem to support a populist American white culture compatible with plutocracy; they act as if no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it supports the will of economic elites who have God's Chosen Role of lording it over the rest of Humanity -- at least in America for now. 

It is easy to see why many people find this agenda troublesome or offensive. It is maximal cruelty within a capitalist context. Maybe the way to get the highest possible level of economic growth is to compel people to work longer and harder under harsher discipline with the enrichment of economic elites as the objective until
we have so much prosperity that economic inequality becomes irrelevant. If it takes the building of castles and palaces so that all families not in the elite can live in tract houses with a car for everyone holding a job in the garage, and have high-quality diets, then trickle-down economics might work. The problem is that trickle-down economics usually ends with an economic meltdown due to the imbalance of wealth and poverty. 

81 million voters, slightly more than 51% of the electorate, voted for Joe Biden. You may consider the vote of a Trump supporter more precious... but 51% is slightly higher than the proportion of the total vote that Ronald Reagan got in 1980; nobody thought that Ronald Reagan, whether one liked him or not at the time, was legitimately the President of the United States. Yes, Trump got elected in 2016 with less than even a plurality of the vote because he got the "right" votes. He got his chance, and about 81 million people voted against him. Trump lost the Electoral College in 2020 by losing the electoral votes of five states that he won in 2016.

The Electoral College is so designed that the States elect the President and the People does so only indirectly. This had its virtues when  some states were for all practical purposes single-Party dictatorships (almost all former Confederate states) in which a large part of the populace was effectively denied the vote. The Democratic Party, at least in the former Confederacy, was anything but Democratic. 

Quote:(David Horn's)  characterization of Fox News is completely wrong, but how would
you even know, one way or the other?  You have no idea what's going on
in the world (except, ironically, for the information you get from my
articles).  All you know about the world is what you get from the
heavily censored state media, like CNN.  You know nothing except what
your Democrat Party Puppetmasters want you to know.  You say nothing
except what your Democrat Party Puppetmasters want you to say.

Here is a left-right array of news sources on bias, if not quality:




If something is not in the center, take heed. Raw news from FoX News Channel is not too bad because raw news is difficult to manipulate (that explains how AP and Reuters wires are so well respected as definitive), but its analysis is suspect. See also CNN.  FoX News is much more analysis than straight, raw news.

For quality:

In the gray circle is genuine news There may be bias depending upon the constituency of the news source (obviously the Wall Street Journal skews to the Right because its readers are heavily investors and managers, the latter more in private industry but it is a reliable source on what it covers). CNN is of marginal usefulness as a news source even if it lacks an extreme bias.

Center-directed news analysis is rare. Most people want their analysis to fit their beliefs, and there is nothing in the center comparable to Slate or the Weekly Standard. Such does not sell. I could imagine someone trying to aggregate left and right opinions with some attempt at synthesis. I could also imagine journalistic and commercial failure, including a quick bankruptcy. The Economist does get away with that, but it is a British publication, and British publications are tailored for a market that hardly exists in the USA.

At the bottom row, the red triangle, is garbage. It includes extreme positions for people of strong bias (Palmer Report, Breitbart) and such worthless noise as the Daily Mail (British junk) and such supermarket tabloids as the National Enquirer  that people often dismiss as "the maid reads it" or "some handyman left that behind". The absolute worst is the insane world of Alex Jones' Infowars.  

Quote:So your puppetmaster say, "Puppet Horn, go forth and say that Fox News
is a propaganda bullhorn for the extreme right!  Do it now!"

I don't need any puppet-master to tell me that FoX News is of suspect reliability as a news source. There may  be less fecal material in the purported world of news, most notably Infowars, that will rot a brain.  FoX News is best understood in the character of a sign that says "Road Under Construction; travel at your own risk" which often indicates repaving or new paving.  If you really must use that road to get home, then expect to have a car with tar on it or lots of little dents from loose gravel. 

Quote:You don't even know what that means.  But why should you?  You're just
Puppet Horn.  Puppets like Puppet Horn just have to mouth the words
they've been told.  They have no need to understand them.

So you say, "Yes, Puppetmaster, yes sir!"

And you go forth and say, "Fox News is a propaganda bullhorn for the
extreme right!"

And even though that sentence is totally meaningless to your
indentured brain, you say it anyway, because you're a good puppet.
You're The Great Puppet Horn!

A general warning: it is not the persons who are the issue here. It is whether some area in the world is becoming particularly dangerous with the leadership there or elsewhere clueless and hence likely to make catastrophic blunders. Maybe we can do little about some thoroughly nasty situations.

FoX News is an oxymoron. Sometimes it is correct but almost never uniquely correct.
[/quote]