Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Sep-16 World View -- Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kyrgyzstan's World Nomad Games commemorate lifestyle of Genghis Khan
  
• Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement
  
• Generational theory: Bashar al-Assad's miscalculation
  

****
**** Kyrgyzstan's World Nomad Games commemorate lifestyle of Genghis Khan
****


One horseman knocking another off his horse at the World Nomad Games. (AFP)

There were 40 countries, including Russia, China and the United
States, competing in the World Nomad Games, held in eastern Kyrgyzstan
during the last two weeks, between the Rio 2016 Olympics and the
Paralympics.

The games are a celebration of Central Asia's nomadic heritage, dating
back centuries, including the era of Genghis Khan. During the opening
ceremony, Kyrgyzstan's president Almazbek Atambayev said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"In the modern world, people are forgetting their
> history, and there is a threat of extinction for traditional
> cultures. Nomadic civilization is an example of sustainable
> development, which is what all of humanity is looking for
> today."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The star of the show was action film actor Steven Seagal, presumably
publicizing his new movie "The Perfect Weapon." Seagal enjoys a
cult-like following in the countries of the former Soviet Union, and
the audience went wild when Seagal appeared on horseback, dressed as a
khan (ancient Kyrgyz warrior) in armor and rode in on a horse as the
Games’ guest of honor.

The sports include mass-wrestling, eagle hunting. The highlight is
the traditional Central Asian sport buzkashi also known as kok-boru,
"a violent Central Asian form of polo in which two teams battle for
control of a decapitated goat carcass." Kok Boru is described as a
violent and exciting game, akin to polo -- except instead of a ball
the players attempt to score by picking up, carrying, and tossing a
goat carcass, the head and hooves removed, into a circle at the
opposite end of the field. The goat is traditionally slaughtered right
before the game and delivered to the village elder after. Foreign Policy and The Diplomat and Guardian (London) and EurasiaNet

****
**** Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement
****

Bombs rained down from warplanes on Saturday on a civilian marketplace
in Idlib, near Aleppo in Syria, killing 37 people, including many
women and children. At least 82 people were killed on Saturday in
bombings from warplanes of the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. Syria's civilians fear worse violence from the announced
"ceasefire," since the regime is using the opportunity to gain as much
ground as possible before the ceasefire is scheduled to begin on
Monday.

Generally speaking, in any war, a "ceasefire" is bound to be a farce
for several reasons:

• The politicians set up the ceasefire mainly for
  self-aggrandizement. Each side lies about its intentions.
  
• As the date of the "ceasefire" approaches, each side doubles down
  on violence, in order to control as much territory as possible before the
  ceasefire takes place.
  
• Each side uses the "ceasefire" as an opportunity to bring in
  supplies and weapons, and to restructure their forces in preparation
  for the next battle when the "ceasefire" ends.
  
• Each side feels free to violate the "ceasefire," as long as it can
  find an excuse for doing so.
  
• If the "ceasefire" only applies to some areas, but not to others,
  as in the case of this new agreement, then bombings and other attacks
  will all substantially increase in the areas not covered. So there
  will be same amount of violence during the "ceasefire," but it will be
  concentrated on excluded areas.
  
• When the "ceasefire" ends, each side blames violations by the
  other for why it didn't work, and excuses or denies its own
  violations.

In this case, one of the politicians is US Secretary of State John
Kerry. During his tenure, he's stumbled from one foreign policy
disaster to the next, probably still hoping to get a Nobel Peace Prize
if he keeps on trying.

The other politician is Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Lavrov who
seems capable of lying about anything and everything, and never makes
a true statement except by accident.

Not directly involved in the deal is Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, who has contempt for pretty much everybody, and certainly
sees this agreement as an opportunity to gain a military advantage.

It's been well-publicized for weeks that al-Assad sees the current
battle in Aleppo as an opportunity to strike a fatal blow against
the opposition. According to one analyst:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the regime is unable to retake Aleppo, that will
> demonstrate that they are unable to retake all of Syria. If the
> opposition suffers defeat and is routed from the city, it’s a sign
> the revolution has lost."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This analysis alone means that the ceasefire will not last. The
ceasefire would mean that the status quo is maintained and the
regime will have failed to retake Aleppo. With al-Assad's army in trouble, possibly close to collapse,

he may believe that the battle of Aleppo is an existential crisis for
his regime.

Furthermore, Russia is now the main hegemonic power in the Mideast,
and Russia has made it clear that they want al-Assad in power, so they
will continue to use maximum military violence, irrespective of any
"ceasefire." So if al-Assad has agreed to the ceasefire, as news
reports indicate he has, then he will use it to gain every possible
military advantage, in preparation for what he undoubtedly sees as the
ultimate critical battle of Aleppo. BBC and
Russia Today and CS Monitor and SANA (Syria)

Related Articles

• Turkey plans assault on Syria's Kurds, as US-Russia announce another peace deal (10-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse (04-Sep-2016)
  
  
• US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria (12-Feb-2016)
  
  
• Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva (25-Jan-2016)
  

****
**** Generational theory: Bashar al-Assad's miscalculation
****

As I've said before, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
al-Assad is wrong to believe that the recapture of Aleppo would mean
that the revolution is ended. Al-Assad is thinking of his father's
war, which ended when Hafez al-Assad massively slaughtered tens of
thousands of Sunnis in the town of Hama, Syria, in 1982, turning the
town to rubble. But that was a generational crisis war, and so ended
with an "explosive crisis," something I've described
a number of times.

This war is a generational Awakening era war, and the rules are very
different. The biggest difference is that there are plenty of people
in the Sunni opposition today who recall the 1982 massacre, are
prepared for it, and will not let it stop them from protesting and
fighting, even if Aleppo is lost.

Awakening era wars follow a pattern that I've described many times in
countries like Burundi, Thailand, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and others.
The Awakening era is the time when the first post-war generation comes
of age, creating a "generation gap," as happened in the United States
in the 1960s. It's characterized by large student protests and
demonstrations, but any armed conflict fizzles quickly. That's what
would have happened in 2011 if Bashar al-Assad hadn't treated peaceful
protests by young people as an excuse to start exterminating all
Sunnis. Today's students' parents were defeated by Hafez al-Assad in
1982, and these students are well aware of that, so they will not let
the loss of one city stop them in 2016.

Related Articles

• The African Union proposes an all-African peacekeeping force for South Sudan (20-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites (23-May-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kyrgyzstan, World Nomad Games, Russia, China,
Genghis Khan, Almazbek Atambayev, Steven Seagal, kok-boru,
Syria, Idlib, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad, John Kerry, Sergei Lavrov,
Hafez al-Assad, Hama, Burundi, Thailand, Zimbabwe, South Sudan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Sep-16 World View -- South Korea announces 'Massive Punishment and Retaliation' and decapitation for N. Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• After North Korea's 5th nuclear test on Friday, a 6th may be imminent
  
• South Korea announces 'Massive Punishment and Retaliation' and decapitation for N. Korea
  

****
**** After North Korea's 5th nuclear test on Friday, a 6th may be imminent
****


North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un expresses pleasure at the nuclear tests on Friday (KCNA/AFP)

North Korea on Friday set off its most powerful nuclear bomb to date.
Earlier in the week, North Korea test-launched three ballistic
missiles, and country officials are claiming that North Korea is
almost ready to launch nuclear missiles.

The nuclear test was condemned by political leaders around the world.
China, North Korea's supposed ally, also protested North Korea's
"disregard" for international stability. It's believed that China's
fear is of a destabilized North Korean government, although China
would take advantage of that situation by moving its military quickly
to take control of the North.

On Sunday, unnamed South Korean government sources said that another
nuclear test may be imminent:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Indications have been gathered that the North has
> completed preparations to conduct a nuclear test at any time in
> the third tunnel that has not been used previously."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

After Friday's test, the US threatened to launch additional sanctions
against North Korea unilaterally, without seeking permission from the
UN Security Council.

However, North Korea mocked the threat in its state-run media:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The group of Obama's running around and talking about
> meaningless sanctions until today is highly laughable, when their
> 'strategic patience' policy is completely worn out and they are
> close to packing up to move out.
>
> As we've made clear, measures to strengthen the national nuclear
> power in quality and quantity will continue to protect our dignity
> and right to live from augmented threats of nuclear war from the
> United States."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Years of international sanctions targeting North Korea have had no
effect. Yonhap (Seoul, 9-Sept) and National Post (9-Sep) and Reuters and Straits Times

****
**** South Korea announces 'Massive Punishment and Retaliation' and decapitation for N. Korea
****

South Korea has announced the "Korea Massive Punishment and
Retaliation" (KMPR) plan to annihilate Pyongyang, the capital city of
North Korea, through intensive bombing. The KMPR would be triggered
in case the North shows any signs of a nuclear attack.

According to a government official:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Every Pyongyang district, particularly where the
> North Korean leadership is possibly hidden, will be completely
> destroyed by ballistic missiles and high-explosive shells as soon
> as the North shows any signs of using a nuclear weapon. In other
> words, the North’s capital city will be reduced to ashes and
> removed from the map."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The attack would be conducted with conventional weapons, as South
Korea has no nuclear weapons, although some Seoul officials have been
calling for a nuclear development program in the South.

Of note is that the KMPR threat is of a pre-emptive attack. That is,
the South would not wait for a nuclear attack. Instead, the KMPR
attack would be launched "if signs of the impending use of nuclear
weapons are detected or in the event of a war."

In the KMPR scenario, South Korea will deploy its Hyunmoo 2A and
Hyunmoo 2B ballistic missiles, with a range of between 300 and 500
kilometers as well as the Hyunmoo-3 cruise missiles with a range of
1000 kilometers.

"The KMPR is the ultimate operation concept the military can have in
the absence of its own nuclear weapons," according to a government
official.

The threat is also highly personal in that the North Korean child
dictator Kim Jong-un will be specifically targeted with "decapitation
strikes" on the North Korean leadership. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Korea Times and Japan Times


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, South Korea,
Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation, KMPR

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Sep-16 World View -- As Syria ceasefire begins, Bashar al-Assad quickly rejects it

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• As Syria ceasefire begins, Bashar al-Assad quickly rejects it
  
• Confusion grows over role of al-Nusra Front in US-Russia peace plan
  

****
**** As Syria ceasefire begins, Bashar al-Assad quickly rejects it
****


Map of Syria and Iraq, showing who's in control of different regions (WaPost)

The latest and greatest ceasefire in Syria's war began at 7 pm local
time on Monday, amid reports that the regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad is continuing to drop barrel bombs on civilian
neighborhoods in Aleppo.

It's never been entirely clear whether or not al-Assad was accepting
the ceasefire proposal that was imposed by Russia and the United
States, but on Monday, he made a statement that clearly rejected it:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We as a nation ... are delivering a message that the
> Syrian state is determined to recover all regions from the
> terrorists and restore security, infrastructure, and everything
> else that was destroyed in both human and material aspects.
>
> We come today here to replace the fake freedom they tried to
> market at the beginning of the crisis ... with real freedom, not
> the freedom that begins with them and is sustained by dollars
> ... and by some promises of positions."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

If you look at the map above, you can see that the al-Assad regime and
the opposition rebels (the "Sunni insurgents") are together fighting
over a western region that's only a small fraction of Syria, and that
al-Assad is not in control of the overwhelming portion of Syria.

The region colored green, which is controlled by Kurdish forces, is
much larger, if you count the portions under Kurdish control in both
Syria and Iraq. The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) also controls large sections of Syria and Iraq, and those
are totally out of reach of the al-Assad regime.

So the ceasefire agreement, if implemented, might leave al-Assad
still in power, but only in control of a small fraction of the
country. And al-Assad is clearly not willing to accept that.

The second portion of al-Assad's statement promises to replace "fake
freedom they tried to market at the beginning of the crisis ... with
real freedom." There's some confusion about what this statement
means, and I've actually seen different translations in different
reports, but here's my interpretation of what it means.

When the crisis began early in 2011, there was no ISIS, no al-Nusra,
and no Free Syrian Army. There were just peaceful protests, demanding
what al-Assad is now calling "fake freedom." There are peaceful
protests in Washington, London, Paris, and other cities. Suppose
there were a "Black Lives Matter" protest on the Washington Mall, and
President Obama responded by calling out the army and air force to
shoot and bomb the protesters, as well as the cities in which the
protesters live.

It's a bizarre concept, but that's what al-Assad did in 2011, and this
brings me to a contradiction that's been bothering me for years.
Suppose there were some peace agreement, and everyone stopped
fighting. What would happen if Syrian civilians began peaceful
protests again? -- which is what would happen in a generational
Awakening era. I'm guessing that the psychopathic Bashar al-Assad
would start shooting and bombing civilians again.

So this week we have a ceasefire deal reached in Geneva by the United
States and Russia. But there are no penalties for violations, in
particular, no violations for continuing air strikes and barrel bombs
launched by the al-Assad regime. And neither al-Assad nor any of the
opposition groups have endorsed the deal anyway. Indeed, the US State
Department on Monday had to go out of its way to deny that the US and
Russia would have any control whatsoever on Syrian regime airstrikes.

As usual in the media, there always has to be "good news" and "hope."
Today's version is that most of the fighting seems to have stopped at
least for the time being. We'll have to see how long it lasts.
Washington Post and ARA News (Syria) and VOA

Related Articles

• Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
  
  
• US and Russia agree to a farcical 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria (12-Feb-2016)
  

****
**** Confusion grows over role of al-Nusra Front in US-Russia peace plan
****

When jihadists from around the world began pouring into Syria in 2013
to fight Bashar al-Assad, many of them joined al-Qaeda linked Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front). However, as the trickle of jihadists
turned into a flood, there was a split between al-Nusra and a new
jihadist group, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh). There were two major differences between the two jihadists
group.

The first difference was that ISIS refused to pledge allegiance to
al-Qaeda, while al-Nusra continued its allegiance to al-Qaeda.

The second difference was that al-Nusra has always been an
organization of almost exclusively Syrian fighters, while ISIS has
fighters from all over the world. However, members of the Free Syrian
Army and other "moderate" rebel groups did not want to be associated
with any jihadist group, either al-Nusra or ISIS.

In July, al-Nusra announced that it would split with al-Qaeda, and
rename itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS - Front for the Conquest of
Syria). The announced objective was to become more acceptable to the
moderate rebel groups in Syria, and also to become more acceptable to
the international community.

The United States announced that JFS was still considered to be a
terrorist organization. The US airstrikes have continued to target
JFS, and last week the US announced that an airstrike had killed Abu
Hajer al Homsi (alias Abu Omar Saraqeb), a top JFS commander.

However, JFS's split with al-Qaeda has made any discussion of a peace
agreement more complicated. An objective of the US-Russia ceasefire
deal is that FSA and "moderate" rebel groups should be spared, while
jihadists should continue to be targeted. But now JFS and FSA are
working more closely together in fighting al-Assad. Insofar as
they've merged, the distinction between moderate and jihadist fighters
has gotten even more complicated, and makes it even less likely that
any ceasefire will last for long. Reuters (9-Sept) and The National (UAE) and Al-Monitor

Related Articles

• Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (29-Jul-2016)
  
  
• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Abu Hajer al Homsi, Abu Omar Saraqeb

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

(09-13-2016, 10:10 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: In spite of Komrade Drumpf's bloviating (BTW, how would that sort of traitorous talk have gone down during WW2?), the Iraqi government and Kurdish Iraqi government have retaken most of the territory from the earlier ISIS incursion. Iraq is nearly back to normal, control wise. Of course neither the Obama-derangement syndrome crowd nor the MSM have highlighted this fact. It does not sell their evil wares.

The useful idiot Donald Trump may have compromised the peace process. The Iraqi government and Iraqi Kurds have done well in recapturing much of Iraq from Daesh, probably because they are not hostile to each other. That the Iraqi government can try and execute perpetrators of a massacre (that the perpetrators killed Iraqi soldiers after changing sides to Daesh makes those killers traitors as well) indicates the confidence of the Iraqi government. That's not to say that the Kurds won't have their little bloodletting in the aftermath, probably for religious persecutions resulting in death.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Sep-16 World View -- Monday's EU summit to show that Europe 'not detached from reality' over migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Monday's EU summit to show that Europe 'not detached from reality' over migrants
  
• Luxembourg Foreign Minister calls for Hungary's expulsion from EU over migrant issue
  

****
**** Monday's EU summit to show that Europe 'not detached from reality' over migrants
****


Refugees at Hungary's border with Serbia, 16-Sept-2015 (AFP)

European Council president Donald Tusk said that European leaders need
to show that they're "not detached from reality" at the EU summit to
be held in Slovakia's capital city Bratislava on Monday. He was
referring to the issues of immigration and free movement of people
within Europe, in view of the importance of these issues in the
success of the Brexit referendum in Britain, calling for Britain to
leave the European Union, and a recent regional election in Germany
that handed Angela Merkel a stinging defeat.

According to Tusk:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Bratislava summit is not about Brexit per se. It
> is about bringing back political control of our common
> future. People are turning against what they perceive as an
> irrational openness. They see the world around them getting more
> chaotic. Uncontrolled migration, terrorism, injustices linked to
> globalization - we have to confront such issues with real
> political leadership. ... What must be delivered is a sense of
> security and order.
>
> We in Europe cannot build a political community only on the
> concept of mandatory and total openness for everyone. The union
> also has to be about protection – protection of our freedoms, our
> security, our quality and way of life. ... There is a balance to
> be restored. I think the union is one the best tools we have to do
> it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to a leaked document authored by Tusk, "People are concerned
by a perceived lack of control and fears related to migration,
terrorism, and globalization." Some of the issues that he identified
to be discussed at Monday's summit include:

• Bring down number of irregular migrants.
  
• Never allow return to chaos of last year.
  
• Get commitment by a number of Member States to offer immediate
  assistance to strengthen the protection of Bulgaria's border with
  Turkey.
  
• Expand the "rapid reaction force," including vessels, aircraft and
  border guards from Member States, to reinforce the control of external
  borders.
  
• Make agreements with countries [in Africa and Mideast] to return
  return migrants to home countries.

Politico (EU) and Telegraph (London) and Irish Times

Related Articles

• Anti-immigrant party in Germany hands Angela Merkel a stinging defeat (05-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Number of migrants reaching Greece surges since Turkey's attempted coup (18-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Fearing more Brexit-like votes, EU abandons fiscal rules for Spain, Portugal, Italy (30-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Luxembourg Foreign Minister calls for Hungary's expulsion from EU over migrant issue
****

Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn has called for Hungary to
be suspended or even expelled from the European Union because of its
"massive violation" of EU fundamental values:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Those who, like Hungary, build fences against
> refugees from war or who violate press freedom and judicial
> independence should be excluded temporarily, or if necessary
> forever, from the EU. ... [This is] the only way to preserve the
> cohesion and values of the EU.
>
> "The fence that the Hungarians built to deter refugees is getting
> longer, higher and more dangerous. Hungary is not far away from
> issuing orders to open fire on refugees. Anyone who wants to
> overcome the fence must expect the worst. ...
>
> Moreover, all this is happening in a country from where hundreds
> of thousands fled to Europe from the Soviets in
> 1956."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However Asselborn's boss, Luxemburg prime minister Xavier Bettel,
disagreed:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think we should view ourselves as like a family in
> which all members share the same value together and speak to one
> another when a family member does not accept these common values.
> We should not exclude a family member."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Foreign ministers from Austria and Germany also immediately rejected
Asselborn's call. Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártó,
responded acerbically:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We’ve known even before that Jean Asselborn is not a
> serious character. It really shows that he only lives a few
> kilometers away from Brussels. He wants to exclude Hungary from
> the EU, but he has already long excluded himself from the circle
> of politicians who can be taken seriously. Being the good nihilist
> that he is, he is working tirelessly on destroying European
> security and culture."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Luxemburger Wort and Budapest Business Journal and Hungarian Free Press

Related Articles

• Refugee crisis: Turkey ridicules Europe as Hungary closes Croatia border (17-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Hungary's Viktor Orbán defends 'Christian culture' (18-Sep-2015)
  
  
• As expected, Austria follows Hungary in saying 'No more migrants' (07-Sep-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Donald Tusk,
Luxembourg, Jean Asselborn, Xavier Bettel, Hungary, Péter Szijjártó

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Sep-16 World View -- UK politicians debate the 2011 Libya intervention

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UK politicians debate the 2011 Libya intervention
  
• Libya and Syria illustrate the intervention dilemma for policy makers
  

****
**** UK politicians debate the 2011 Libya intervention
****


UK Parliament buildings

A report produced the UK Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee
strongly condemns the 2011 intervention in Libya, mostly by
the UK and France, with US support.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The consequence was political and economic collapse,
> inter-militia and inter-tribal (warfare), humanitarian and migrant
> crises, widespread human rights violations and the growth of [the
> so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)] in North
> Africa."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This report was written by politicians to criticize other politicians,
and on that basis alone there's no reason to believe that the report
is anything but a collection of politically charged accusations based
carefully selected "facts" from people who have no clue what's going
on the world.

As I wrote in March,
there was a
bloodbath going on in Libya in early 2011, with a massive refugee
crisis with hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring into neighboring
countries. Muammar Gaddafi declared war on the protesters, and the
Arab League requested a no-fly zone over Libya.

The ironically named "Arab Spring" began in early 2011, and resulted
in chaos in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. No
politicians could have either caused or prevented this chaos, or could
even have predicted that it would happen. It was caused by the rise
of a new generation of young Arabs throughout the Mideast.

Nonetheless, this report complains that David Cameron should have
predicted that militant extremist groups would attempt to benefit from
the rebellion, that a proper predictive analysis should have been
made, that the country was poorly understood, and that there was no
effective advance strategy to support and shape post-Gaddafi Libya.

In fact, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Chaos Theory
tells us that none of those things could be accurately predicted or
formulated. In fact, all of the countries mentioned above were
chaotic in different ways, and nobody that I'm aware of correctly
predicted what would happen in any of them. BBC and Guardian (London) and UK Parliament

Related Articles

• A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government (21-Feb-2011)
  
  
• Libya's Muammar Gaddafi gives a psychopathic speech to his people (23-Feb-2011)
  
  
• Massive refugee crisis in Libya increases international calls for intervention (02-Mar-2011)
  

****
**** Libya and Syria illustrate the intervention dilemma for policy makers
****

There is an obvious comparison to be made between the Libya
intervention and the Syria non-intervention. Both situations were
chaotic, both occurred as a result of the "Arab Spring," but
the West intervened in Libya, but not in Syria.

Let's take the paragraph quoted above on the outcome of
the Libya intervention, and rephrase to describe the outcome
of the Syria non-intervention:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The consequence was political and economic collapse
> (worse in Syria than in Libya), inter-militia and inter-tribal
> (warfare - in both countries), humanitarian and migrant crises
> (much worse in Syria, with millions of refugees flooding into
> neighboring countries and Europe), widespread human rights
> violations (Bashar al-Assad's massive genocidal attacks on Sunnis)
> and al-Assad's creation of ISIS, which spread to Iraq, Libya and
> other countries."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

My opinion is that the policy of non-intervention in Syria has been a
major geopolitical disaster, while the intervention in Libya has
mitigated a disaster already in progress.

At the very least, this comparison illustrates the complexity
for policy makers about when the intervene.

Related Articles

• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, UK Parliament, France, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Sep-16 World View -- Syria blocks humanitarian aid to Aleppo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria blocks humanitarian aid to Aleppo
  
• Report: Turkey will build 'residential cities' in Syria buffer zone
  

****
**** Syria blocks humanitarian aid to Aleppo
****


Aleppo on Wednesday (CNN)

The "good news" today about the Syria ceasefire, based on reports by
correspondents on the scene interviewed on the BBC and RFI, is that
while there's no real ceasefire, the amount of violence has decreased,
and also that the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has
temporarily stopped bombing hospitals and schools.

The "bad news" is that nobody believes that the ceasefire will last
for long, and everybody on all sides expects it to collapse any day.
The ceasefire deal was reached between the US and Russia. None of the
belligerents in the war on any side has endorsed the deal.

The epicenter of the ceasefire's failure is Castello Road, the highway
into east Aleppo, where the people, including many women and children,
have been starving because of a siege by al-Assad's military forces.
A critical part of the ceasefire deal is that the UN has to be able to
deliver humanitarian aid to the people of east Aleppo.

The UN has 40 trucks full of food, medicine and other humanitarian aid
ready to go. But after four days, the trucks are stuck on the
Turkey-Syria border, unable to move because Castello Road is too
dangerous to travel, and because Syria has not given permission.

UN officials have been scathingly critical of Syria for not permitting
the humanitarian aid to be delivered. According to Jan Egeland,
chairman of the Syrian humanitarian task force:

> [indent]<QUOTE>We could go today. We're not. . . . The permits have
> not been given. We hope to go tomorrow, to eastern Aleppo.
>
> Not a single permit is in the hands of our people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Since 2011, there have been other attempts at humanitarian deliveries,
some of which have been approved by the Syrian regime. However, the
deliveries have all been held up Syrian troops roadblocks. At these
roadblocks, the Syrian troops would pick through the humanitarian aid
and remove much of it, leaving little for the intended recipients.

In this case, the United Nations is insisting that Syrian troops will
not be permitted to harass the truck convoys and confiscate the food.

United Nations Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura said the
Russia has agreed to allow humanitarian aid, but the Syrian regime is
blocking it:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Those facilitation letters, final permission for the
> U.N. to actually reach those areas (needing aid), have not been
> received. That's a fact. It is particularly regrettable because
> normally during these days we are losing time. These are days
> which we should have used for convoys to move with the permit to
> go because there is no fighting.
>
> The Russian federation is agreeing with us about this, so are the
> two co-chairs (U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian
> Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov). This is something that requires
> to take place immediately."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

My guess is that the only reason that al-Assad approved this
humanitarian delivery plan in the first place is because his army is
desperate and confiscating the UN aid would help the army.

Four days ago I gave a list of reasons why it would fail,
and all of those reasons are coming
true.

Al-Assad himself quickly rejected the ceasefire,
saying, "We as a nation ... are delivering a message
that the Syrian state is determined to recover all regions from the
terrorists and restore security, infrastructure, and everything else
that was destroyed in both human and material aspects."

Both al-Assad and his opposition see the battle of Aleppo as the
turning point of the war. Al-Assad's siege of Aleppo is starving the
people, and it's been well-publicized that he believes that if he can
force the opposition in Aleppo to surrender, then it will be a fatal
blow for the entire war. If he's unable to force the opposition in
Aleppo to surrender, it will be a sign that he's lost the war.

So I was surprised that al-Assad agreed to the Aleppo humanitarian
delivery at all, since it strikes at the heart of his principal
objective, and would end the siege. However, the new development that
al-Assad is blocking the humanitarian deliveries, or that if approved
they will be confiscated by his army, makes perfect sense.

The only thing that can change this dynamic is for Russia to find a
way to force al-Assad to comply. That seems unlikely, but we'll have
to wait and see. CNN and Washington Post and Reuters

Related Articles

• Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
  
  
• As Syria ceasefire begins, Bashar al-Assad quickly rejects it (13-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Report: Turkey will build 'residential cities' in Syria buffer zone
****

It's now been almost a month since Turkey began the invasion of
northern Syria known as 'Operation Euphrates Shield'
. Turkey achieved a quick victory by driving the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) to leave Syria's
border city of Jarablus.

Since then, Turkey has been rebuilding Jarablus, providing water and
electricity for the hundreds of Syrian refugees returning to the
region. Electricity will be provided by a three-kilometer underground
power line from the Turkish city of Karkamis, and water will be
supplied by using power generators to divert water from the city's
wells into the water network. In one day earlier this week, around
1,700 Syrian refugees in Turkey have returned to Jarablus and the
surrounding area.

Ever since millions of Syrian refugees started pouring into Turkey,
Turkey has been lobbying to build a "buffer zone" in northern Syria,
to provide a place where Syrian refugees can go rather than cross the
border into Turkey. However, the international community has opposed
the idea, fearing that it would create additional conflict.

On Tuesday, Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Nurettin Canikli announced
that Turkey has started implementing a plan for a buffer zone in
northern Syria, and would start building "new residential cities" in
Syrian areas recently liberated from ISIS by “Operation Euphrates
Shield.” Turkey is currently hosting 2.7 million Syrian refugees, and
the objective is to place them in fully equipped residential areas
that Turkey was planning to build.

Turkish officials hope to get approval from the United Nations
Security Council to create the buffer zone, but it seems possible that
Turkey will go ahead with its plans with or without Security Council
approval.

Daily Sabah (8-Sep) and Asharq Al-Awsat (London)

Related Articles

• Turkey plans assault on Syria's Kurds (10-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Turkey and Jordan separately plan invasions of Syria (30-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Kobani crisis causes Turkey to reverse policy on Syria (30-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad, Castello Road,
Jan Egeland, Staffan de Mistura, Russia, Operation Euphrates Shield,
Turkey, Jarablus, Karkamis, Nurettin Canikli, residential cities,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Sep-16 World View -- Concerns grow about Tunisia's stability as economic protests escalate

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tunisia remains the #1 source of foreign fighters for ISIS
  
• Tunisia's town of Ben Guerdane on Libya border exemplifies problems
  
• Escalating economic protests across Tunisia threaten country's stability
  
• France's new ambassador to Tunisia commits huge gaffe
  

****
**** Tunisia remains the #1 source of foreign fighters for ISIS
****


Sources of foreign fighters joining ISIS (Soufan Group, 2015)

On December 17, 2010, street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi doused himself in
gasoline and set himself on fire in a town in central Tunisia, after
police allegedly confiscated his fruit and vegetable stand because he
lacked a permit. Bouazizi later died. His act of self-immolation set
off the "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunisia, as well as the "Arab Spring"
in Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria.

The Jasmine Revolution ousted Tunisia's long-time president Zine el
Abidine Ben Ali, but Tunisia's experience is considered the "gold
standard" for the Arab Spring because the transition of power was
peaceful, and Tunisia is still a secular democracy, as contrasted to
the violence in other Arab countries.

It's the peaceful nature of its transition that some people are now
blaming for Tunisia's severe problems with jihadi terrorists.

In March of last year, two terrorist gunmen infiltrated security at
the well-known Bardo Museum in Tunis, right next door to the
parliament building. They took and killed 22 hostages, with 50 people
injured. Almost all of the casualties were foreign tourists.

Tunisians were still in shock from that attack, when another attack
occurred in June. A gunman disguised as a tourist opened fire at a
Tunisian hotel in Sousse on Friday, killing 37 people.

Perhaps the most significant fact about Tunisia is that it's the
number one source of foreign fighters who have gone to Syria to join
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Some 5,500
Tunisian citizens are now fighting in Syria and in Libya, far more
than any other country. According to a CNN study, around 8,800 young
Tunisians have been stopped at the border.

Some people are claiming that the reason is the huge disappointment in
that things have not changed since the Jasmine Revolution. One
foreign language teacher in Tunisia is quoted as explaining:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Among one single family, six children have gone to
> Syria. Yet, they come from a middle-class family. So how do you
> explain this? The reason is that they grew up in a country without
> moral values. During the former regime, a family man could be
> humiliated in front of his kids by the lowest employee of an
> administration, without being able to defend himself. The father
> figure has been shattered. They all grew up without a sense of
> respect for the law because of corruption."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

And yet, police brutality continues, especially against young people,
and the economy is suffering. The reasons for radicalization are
various, however, they are all rooted in deep feelings of injustice
and disappointment due to the unkept promises that were made after the
2011 uprising: access to economic and social rights, more jobs for the
youth, and reforms in the security ministry.

Last year's terrorist attacks were successful in that tourism to
Tunisia has plummeted, with the economy losing as much as $2 billion.
With so many young people unemployed, ISIS has found it fruitful to
target Tunisian youth for radicalization, and once again, ISIS has
apparently been very successful.

Washington Times and Middle East Eye and Reuters

Related Articles

• Effects of Tunisia uprising spread around the Arab world (16-Jan-2011)
  
  
• Terror attacks in Kuwait, France, Somalia and Tunisia highlight growing sectarian war (27-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Beneath the surface, Tunisia is a terrorist breeding ground (19-Mar-2015)
  

****
**** Tunisia's town of Ben Guerdane on Libya border exemplifies problems
****

In March of this year, ISIS militants from Libya crossed the border
into Tunisia, and attempted to establish a permanent outpost in the
Tunisian city of Ben Guerdane. Tunisia's military forces crushed the
effort, but

Things got worse in March, when the Islamic State suddenly attempted
to seize the Tunisian city of Ben Guerdane, near the border with
Libya. Tunisian security forces crushed the attack, but 45 militants
and 13 Tunisian security personnel were killed.

To prevent further ISIS infiltration, Tunisia's security forces have
allegedly been torturing and killing anyone who seems suspicious.
Security forces have killed more than 60 people near the border,
including many children.

Because Ben Guerdane is on the border with Libya, it's a major
smuggling gateway between the two countries. However, corruption is
high according to a Ben Guerdane resident:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Lives here don’t seem to matter. The army and
> national guards fight over who controls the roads [used by
> smugglers].
>
> Smugglers who refuse to pay bribes are shot. When Daesh attacked,
> the smugglers begged the security forces to give them arms [to
> fight Daesh], while security personnel were asking for [smuggled]
> cigarettes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

On September 3, a young man suspected of smuggling was shot and killed
by a military patrol unit. This triggered a protest march followed by
violent demonstrations on September 5. Further unrest is expected.
Tunisia Live and Anadolu

****
**** Escalating economic protests across Tunisia threaten country's stability
****


Protest activity in cities across Tunisia (AEI)

The violent demonstrations in Ben Guerdane on September 5 were
followed by violent demonstrations in Fernana, a town in northwestern
Tunisia, starting on September 7 and continuing for several day.
Protests are spreading to other cities in Tunisia in a manner
resembling the original Jasmine Revolution.

It's feared that the demonstration are going to worsen. Thanks to the
two terrorism attacks last year, tourism revenues have been slashed.

With a surging national budget deficit, it's going to be necessary to
implement an austerity program, including sharp cuts in public
spending, possibly laying off many public sector workers. Tunisia's
prime minister Youssef Chahed announced on Friday that his ministers'
salaries will be cut by 30%. Each of his 40 ministers and junior
ministers, who earn around $1,800 a month, will have their salaries
cut by about $500 per month.

However, this move is unlikely to quell the surging discontent, or to
slow down the attempts by ISIS to recruit Tunisian youth. It's feared
that the growing number of protests in cities across Tunisia is going
to destabilize the country, possibly as much as the other Arab Spring
countries were destabilized. AEI Critical Threats and Reuters

****
**** France's new ambassador to Tunisia commits huge gaffe
****

France's new ambassador to Tunisia, Olivier Poivre d’Arvor, generated
controversy with a major gaffe in a radio interview on August 30,
shortly after starting his official duties on September 10.

During the interview he said that his main concern in his new job was
for the security of the 30,000 French citizens living in Tunisia, as
he believed they were targets for the terrorists of Tunisia. He added
that Tunisia was a major supplier of terrorists.

One person in social media is quoted as saying:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Mr. Ambassador thank you for your feelings towards my
> country Tunisia, but about the security of French nationals in
> Tunisia, it is ensured by the Tunisian authorities. Your main
> mission is to convey to your government the expectations of a
> country that had thought to count on its first partner for a
> successful democratic transition."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In attempting to recover from the gaffe, the French embassy said that
the ambassador "notably mentioned support for the consolidation of
democracy in Tunisia, economic partnership and development, cultural
cooperation or education assistance. It is the breadth and diversity
of the French-Tunisian cooperation that make the relation exceptional,
according to the term used by Olivier Poivre d'Arvor himself, which
makes France the leading partner of Tunisia." Tunisia Live and TAP (Tunisia)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tunisia, Mohamed Bouazizi, Jasmine Revolution,
Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, Arab Spring, Bardo Museum,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ben Guerdane, Libya, Fernana, Youssef Chahed,
France, Olivier Poivre d’Arvor

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Sep-16 World View -- India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Violence in India-controlled Kashmir grows as thousands defy curfew
  
• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan
  

****
**** Violence in India-controlled Kashmir grows as thousands defy curfew
****


Muslims in India-controlled Kashmir shout pro-freedom slogans at funeral of 11-year-old boy on Saturday (EPA)

Weeks of violent clashes in India-controlled Kashmir continued on
Saturday, when thousands of angry demonstrators defied a curfew to
attend the funeral of Nasir Shafi Qazi, an 11-year-old schoolboy,
whose body was found riddled with bullets and pellet marks.

Violent clashes in Muslim-majority Kashmir began on July 9, following
the death on July 8 of Burhan Wani, a 22-year-old commander in the
separatist militia Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). There have been 81 deaths
and thousands of injuries. Hundreds of people have been blinded for
life, having been shot by the security forces with "non-lethal" pellet
guns that are often turning out to be lethal.

The Hindu vs Muslim unrest in Kashmir continues to grow, and is
"organic," meaning that it's coming up from the people, rather than
being controlled by country leaders or army generals. What we're
seeing is a repeat of the last two generational crisis wars, which
were also "organic" and extremely bloody: India's 1857 Rebellion and
the 1947 Partition war. The current Hindu vs Muslim unrest continues
to spiral in that direction, and I see nothing that is likely to stop
it. The Hindu and AFP and Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• India, Pakistan celebrate independence day with vitriolic accusations about Kashmir (15-Aug-2016)
  
  
• After 50 days of violence, unrest in India-controlled Kashmir is unabated (27-Aug-2016)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan
****


Map of Pakistan, highlighting Kashmir and Balochistan

Appearing before the United Nations Human Rights Council, India and
Pakistan are embarking on vitriolic tit-for-tat accusations.

The Pakistan delegate said "India’s attempts to deny its illegal
occupation of Jammu and Kashmir [is] a travesty of history." Pakistan
said that give the "persistent, irresponsible flouting of
international norms governing inter-state behavior by India, we are
constrained to point out the abysmal human rights record of the Indian
government."

As the Pakistan delegate was attacking India's record in
India-controlled Kashmir, the Indian delegate responded by attacking
Pakistan's record in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir as being
"administered by a 'deep state'", and also in Pakistan's province of
Balochistan:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"In the last two decades, the most wanted terrorists
> of the world have found succor and sustenance in Pakistan. This
> tradition unfortunately continues even today, not surprising when
> its government employs terrorism as an instrument of state
> policy. ...
>
> In fact, Pakistan is a nation that practices terrorism on its own
> people. The sufferings of the people of Balochistan are a telling
> testimony in this regard. Not coincidentally, this region also
> serves as a base to conduct terrorism and violate human rights in
> a neighboring country."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Baloch people are Shia Muslims of Iranian descent, and have been
the targets of numerous bloody terrorist attacks by terror groups
linked to the Pakistan Taliban and to al-Qaeda.

Apparently, mentioning Balochistan at the UN Human Rights Council has
violated some kind of unwritten agreement between India and Pakistan,
where they politely ignore many of each other's human rights
violations. So the Pakistan delegate struck back by saying:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Over one third of Indian territory is under a full
> blown peasant insurgency. There is a despicable human rights
> situation in Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Assam, and ethnic
> groups in India's north-east have been battling for rights since
> many decades in the face of terrible repression."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The epicenter of the vitriolic disagreement between Pakistan and India
continues to be Kashmir, and it's clear that the situation gets worse
every week. As I wrote above, The current unrest between India's
Hindus and Pakistan's Muslims continues to spiral towards war, and I
see nothing that is likely to stop it. Indian Express and First Post and Daily Times (Pakistan) and Telegraph (Calcutta)

Related Articles

• Terror attack in Quetta, Balochistan, Pakistan, kills 75 (09-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) continues plan to exterminate Shias (03-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Iran closes border with Pakistan after terror attack in Balochistan (10-Jun-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Balochistan,
Burhan Wani, Nasir Shafi Qazi, Hizbul Mujahideen, HM,
India 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition war, Baloch, Iran,
Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Assam

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Sep-16 World View -- New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation
  
• Russia accuses US of intentionally striking Syria's army to support ISIS
  

****
**** New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation
****


An Indian policeman fires a teargas shell at Srinagar, Kashmir, protestors on Tuesday (Reuters)

Sunday's American newscasts were occupied with unending discussions of
Trump and Clinton vitriolicly calling each other names, as well as
the terrorist attacks in New York City, wounding 28 people, all of
whom have been released from hospital.

But if you're worried about the possibility of global war, then the
much more important story on Sunday, totally ignored by the newscasts,
was India and Pakistan vitriolicly calling each other names, and the
new terrorist attacks in Kashmir, killing over 17 people.

In the hours following the first posting of my article yesterday on
Kashmir and Balochistan,
four
militants, carrying guns and grenades, stormed an Indian army base in
Uri in Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17
soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst
militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.

India's Home Affairs Minister Rajnath Singh reacted by blaming
Pakistan and calling Pakistan a "terrorist state," and said that
"there are definite and conclusive indications that the perpetrators
of Uri attack were highly trained, heavily armed and specially
equipped. I am deeply disappointed with Pakistan's continued and
direct support to terrorism and terrorist groups."

Pakistani officials responded:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Pointing fingers at Pakistan has become a traditional
> tendency of India after each terrorist attack. In the past many
> Indians were involved in the terrorist acts for which India had
> blamed Pakistan. ...
>
> India is trying to divert world's attention from the human rights
> violations being committed in occupied Kashmir. ...
>
> The whole world is looking at the Indian atrocities in India-held
> Kashmir and UN Human Rights Commissioner has also offered to send
> fact finding mission to Kashmir which India has
> rejected."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

India's media is calling for retaliation against Pakistan. India's
Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar tweeted:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The supreme sacrifice of 17 brave soldiers will not
> go in vain. My salute to them. Reviewed situation in Kashmir
> following Uri attack with Army Chief & Commanders. Instructed to
> take firm action against those responsible."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to G. Parthasarathy, former High Commissioner of India to
Pakistan:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Pakistan is isolated within SAARC [South Asian
> Association for Regional Cooperation], as three members of the
> regional group have accused it of sponsoring
> terrorism. Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India have accused
> Islamabad of sponsoring terrorism that ISI continues to generate,
> irrespective of the condition of the bilateral ties with
> India. Such attacks take place irrespective of the ties being
> temporarily good or continuously bad. A response therefore has to
> be forcefully enunciated."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

India and Pakistan were at the brink of war following the November
2008 three-day '26/11' terror attack in Mumbai.
That attack was perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a
Pakistan Taliban terrorist group. India threatened to invade
Pakistani soil to go after Lashkar-e-Toiba. War was only avoided by
hard intervention from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. It
appears that India and Pakistan are, once again, on the brink of war.

As I've been writing repeatedly in the last few weeks, the situation
in Kashmir is "organic," meaning that the rebellion is coming up from
the people, rather than being controlled by country leaders or army
generals. What we're seeing is a repeat of the last two generational
crisis wars, which were also "organic" and extremely bloody: India's
1857 Rebellion and the 1947 Partition war.

It seems increasingly likely that this will explode into full-scale
anti-Indian rebellion by the Kashmir Muslims in the next few months.
If that happens, then a war between India and Pakistan becomes
increasingly likely, and that would bring in their allies -- Russia
and the U.S. on India's side, and China and Saudi Arabia on Pakistan's
side.

As long-time readers know, this is what has been predicted for ten
years, based on Generational Dynamics analyses, as the world gets
closer and closer to the Clash of Civilizations world war. BBC and The Hindu and Dawn (Pakistan) and Reuters

Related Articles

• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  
  
• After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis (30-Nov-2008)
  

****
**** Russia accuses US of intentionally striking Syria's army to support ISIS
****

On Saturday, airstrikes from the US-led coalition were supposed to
target a tank position of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) in Deir Ezzor, but mistakenly targeted Syrian regime
troops who were fighting ISIS in that region. Russia's military says
that 62 Syrian regime soldiers were killed.

US Central Command said that they had conferred with the Russian
military before the airstrike but, as usual, only broadly described
the geographic area.

Russia convened an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security
Council. Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, accused the
US of intentionally striking the Syrian army in order to support the
ISIS terrorists:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It is quite significant and frankly suspicious that
> the United States chose to conduct this particular airstrike at
> this time. Why all of a sudden did the United States choose to
> help the Syrian armed forces defending Deir Ezzor. After all they
> did nothing when ISIL was advancing on Palmyra. ISIL made a 100
> mile march without being attacked by the coalition. All of a
> sudden the United States decides to come to the assistance of the
> Syrian armed forces defending Deir Ezzor.
>
> It is quite significant and I would suggest not accidental that
> this happened just two days before the arrangements - Russian
> American arrangements - were supposed to come into
> force."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the UN, responded by calling the
whole meeting hypocritical stunt:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Even by Russia's standards, tonight's stunt -- a
> stunt replete with moralism and grandstanding -- is uniquely
> cynical and hypocritical. ...
>
> Russia really needs to stop the cheap point scoring and the
> grandstanding and the stunts and focus on what matters -- which is
> implementation of something that we negotiated in good faith with
> them, which has shown it can reduce violence, and shown it can
> save lives, but it needs to be implemented. And a meeting like
> this, a stunt like this, isn't helping anybody."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Power continued by listing atrocities of the Syrian regime.

Australia's Department of Defense said in a statement that Australian
aircraft were involved in the attacks in Deir Ezzor, targeting "what
was believed to be a Daesh fighting position that the Coalition had
been tracking for some time." It said bombing "ceased immediately"
once Russian officials notified the coalition's Combined Air
Operations Center that the targets may have been regime forces.
CNN and Russia Today and The Australian

Related Articles

• Loss of Palmyra in Syria highlights setbacks for ISIS (27-Mar-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Uri, Rajnath Singh,
Manohar Parrikar, G. Parthasarathy,
Mumbai, Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, Condoleezza Rice,
Syria, Deir Ezzor, Russia, Vitaly Churkin, Palmyra, Samantha Power,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Sep-16 World View -- Germany's Angela Merkel expresses regret after election loss in Berlin

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Germany's Angela Merkel expresses regret after election loss in Berlin
  
• Summit in Bratislava shows an EU in disarray
  

****
**** Germany's Angela Merkel expresses regret after election loss in Berlin
****


Food at the AfD election party in Berlin (DPA)

Germany's center-right Christian Democrat Union (CDU), led by
Chancellor Angela Merkel, suffered a historic defeat in a regional
election in Berlin on Sunday, falling off 6% since the last election,
getting only 17.6% of the vote, behind the Social Democratic Party
(SDP) at 21.6%. Most significant were the gains by the right-wing
anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD - Alternative for
Germany) party, considered xenophobic by many, at 14.2%. Berlin's SPD
Mayor Michael Müller had dramatically warned before the election that
a strong AfD result would be "seen throughout the world as a sign of
the resurgence of the right and of Nazis in Germany."

Merkel's loss is attributed to a voter reaction against her famous
phrase "Wir schaffen es" (we can do it), referring to a policy of
allow hundreds of thousands of refugees to enter Germany in 2015.

Merkel expressed regret over the election loss, and to a poll
indicating that 82% of Germans are unhappy with the refugee policy:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If I could I would play back time so I and the German
> federal government and leaders could have been better prepared,"
> she said.
>
> "We have not done everything right in the last few years. We are
> not world champions in integration. ...
>
> If those 82% means that people do not accept foreigners,
> particularly people with Islamic background, this is against our
> constitutional rights, against our Christian democratic... and
> personal convictions. I and the CDU cannot represent this
> course."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, it's not completely clear that the loss was entirely due to
migrant issues. The election was also dominated by local issues,
including poor public services, crumbling school buildings, late
trains and a housing shortage.

Some reports indicate that Merkel's refugee policy will continue in
any event. While the Social Democrats won the largest share of the
vote, 21.6%, they will have to enter a coalition with two other left
wing parties, Die Linke (15.6%) and the Greens (15.2%) to govern. A
left-wing coalition, if formed, would probably continue to be
favorable to refugees. AFP and CNN
and McClatchy

Related Articles

• Anti-immigrant party in Germany hands Angela Merkel a stinging defeat (05-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Summit in Bratislava shows an EU in disarray
****

There was a European Union Summit meeting over the weekend in
Bratislava, the capital city of Slovakia, but only 27 of the 28 EU
members were represented. The representative from the UK was not
invited because on June 23, the UK passed the Brexit referendum,
calling for the UK to leave the EU. So even though the UK is still a
full-fledged member of the European Union, the new UK prime minister
Theresa May was not invited.

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has won repeated elections in
Germany, the strongest economy in Europe, and so Merkel has been
setting much of the agenda for Europe for almost ten years.

Although there is no one in Europe with the charisma necessary to
replace Merkel as a leader, Merkel has certainly been weakened by the
migrant crisis and her election defeats. Between that and Britain's
Brexit vote, which called for Britain to leave the European Union,
Europe itself is in disarray.

Indeed, the Brexit scenario is itself in disarray. Britain's new
prime minister Theresa May has said that they won't even invoke
"Article 50" until next year. Invoking Article 50 begins the two-year
negotiation process for Britain's exit from the EU, and so no
negotiations have begun to take place, leaving many businesses and
people unable to make plans.

There are two major issues to be resolved by the Brexit negotiations.
One issue is whether Britain will remain as part of the European
Common Market, which is considered necessary by some people for
Britain's trade requirements. The other issue is whether Britain will
allow the free flow of people between Britain and the EU nations.
Many Britons would like to remain in the Common Market even if there
is no free flow of people, but many European leaders have already
rejected that option, saying that you can't have freedom of trade
unless you also have freedom to travel.

Even without the UK present, the EU summit was considered failure.
Many people had hoped that the Summit would find a way to resolve the
disputes, and particularly to reach a compromise with Hungary's prime
minister Viktor Orbán which would allow Hungary to accept some
migrants.

None of this was accomplished. Italy's prime minister Matteo Renzi
said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I don't know what Merkel is referring to when she
> talks about the 'spirit of Bratislava'. If things go on like
> this, instead of the spirit of Bratislava we'll be talking about
> the ghost of Europe."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Reuters and Gulf News

Related Articles

• Monday's EU summit to show that Europe 'not detached from reality' over migrants (14-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Hungary may build a second 'massive' fence to block migrants from Serbia (28-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Christian Democrat Union, CDU, Social Democratic Party, SDP,
Alternative für Deutschland, AfD, Berlin, Michael Müller,
Bratislava, Slovakia, Britain, Theresa May,
Hungary, Viktor Orbán, Italy, Matteo Renzi

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Sep-16 World View -- US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Warplanes target and bomb humanitarian aid convoy near Aleppo in Syria
  
• Led by the US, more people are openly expressing total disgust with Bashar al-Assad
  

****
**** Warplanes target and bomb humanitarian aid convoy near Aleppo in Syria
****


Humanitarian aid truck struck by Bashar al-Assad regime's warplanes on Monday (CNN)

Warplanes on Monday targeted a clearly identified United Nations and
Red Crescent aid convoy bringing food, medicines and other
humanitarian aid intended for eastern Aleppo in Syria, where an
estimated 250,000 civilians have been short of food, medicine and
water. At least 18 of 31 trucks in a U.N. and Syrian Arab Red
Crescent (SARC) convoy were hit, along with a SARC warehouse. Omar
Barakat, the director of the Red Crescent's Urum al-Kubra branch near
Aleppo, was killed, along with 12 aid workers and dozens of civilians.

U.N. aid chief Stephen O'Brien said "Notification of the convoy
... had been provided to all parties to the conflict and the convoy
was clearly marked as humanitarian."

The aid convoy was almost certainly struck by warplanes of the regime
of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, although officially
investigators are saying that the warplanes could have been either
Russian or Syrian.

Russian officials immediately claimed that the strikes were
perpetrated by "terrorists," but the only Syrian "terrorist" with
warplanes is Bashar al-Assad.

This is reminiscent of the time when Russians in eastern Ukraine shot
down Malaysian Airlines flight 17 airliner with a Russian Buk missile
in 2014, and then bragged about it on Twitter, after which the Russian
trolls moved into action to claim that Nato had shot airliner down to
embarrass Russia. Reuters and CNN and Syria Direct (Lebanon)

Related Articles

• Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria (26-Sep-2014)
  
  
• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Led by the US, more people are openly expressing total disgust with Bashar al-Assad
****

As I frequently point out, almost every day something new happens that
a few years ago you would have to have been crazy to believe would
ever happen. This past week, the most bizarre occurrence was that the
US and Russia decided to cooperate on a ceasefire -- after two
previous failures -- which had zero chance of working because Bashar
al-Assad said that he intended to continue.

The Bashar al-Assad has used Sarin gas on its own population, with
impunity. The regime has continued to use chemical weapons. Regime
helicopters drop huge barrel bombs onto civilian neighborhoods. The
barrel bombs may contain explosives, screws, nails and other shrapnel,
plus canisters of chlorine and ammonia. When chlorine is inhaled, it
reacts with the moisture in the lungs, turning into hydrochloric acid
that literally burns the target to death from the inside out.
Al-Assad has conducted "industrial strength" torture on tens of
thousands of ordinary civilians over the past decade.

This man, Bashar al-Assad, is almost beyond belief in his depraved
psychopathy. But whenever I refer to him as a "genocidal monster,"
some of his trolls comment that he's a great, wonderful man, even if
he has a fault or two. Nothing surprises me any more, but I do wonder
about these trolls selling their souls every day to glorify an evil
monster just to get paid a few dollars a day.

Western officials have always remained "cautious" about criticizing
al-Assad, because they hoped that if they were nice to him then he
would stop having his warplanes kill sleeping children in their
dormitories. But anyone who has been nice to al-Assad has never been
anything but a useful idiot, providing cover to al-Assad for more
atrocities.

But now, after regime warplanes struck the aid convoy on Monday,
officials seem more willing to criticize al-Assad. Actually, it's a
lot more than that. After years of pent-up anger from being "nice" to
al-Assad, there have now been bursts of fury.

US State Department spokesman John Kirby said to the BBC (my
transcription):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"For so many years now, for five years, it's been the
> regime who has really, really perpetrated the worst brutality on
> their own people. It's been the regime dropping barrel bombs and
> chlorine on their own people. It's been the regime that's been
> besieging towns like Aleppo, starving people, refusing to let
> medicine get in. The regime has been by far the worst violator of
> the cessation of hostilities."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

France's president François Hollande said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>Syria is now a shame, a stain for the international
> community. To accept that there is a city ... where the
> population is starving, with humanitarian convoys attacked, with
> chemical weapons used and with children who become victims every
> day — it’s the responsibility of the entire world."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, the gold medal for letting loose absolutely fury goes to
outgoing United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who said the
following to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Powerful patrons that keep feeding the war also have
> blood on their hands. Present in this hall today are
> representatives of governments that have ignored, facilitated,
> funded, participated, or even planned and carried out atrocities,
> inflicted by all sides of the Syria conflict against Syrian
> civilians. Just when we think it can't get any worse the bar of
> depravity sinks lower. Many groups have killed many innocents --
> but none more so than the government of Syria, which continues to
> barrel bomb neighborhoods and systematically torture thousands of
> detainees."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Why is anyone even surprised that the al-Assad blew up the aid convoy?
Al-Assad has repeatedly made clear that he wanted to siege, starve and
kill all the civilians in Aleppo, since he's under the delusion that
this will end all anti-government protests, just like his father Hafez
who perpetrated similar atrocities in 1982.

Bashar al-Assad has repeated made it clear that he wants to kill all
the "terrorists" -- by which he means all the Sunni Muslim civilians,
whom he considers to be cockroaches to be exterminated. When the
bizarre ceasefire plan was first announced, al-Assad said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We as a nation ... are delivering a message that the
> Syrian state is determined to recover all regions from the
> terrorists and restore security, infrastructure, and everything
> else that was destroyed in both human and material
> aspects."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In other words, al-Assad, who has become delusional, has made it clear
that he will attain total victor, and won't stop committing atrocities
until then. That was obvious from day one. So what the hell was this
moronic "ceasefire" supposed to be about? AP and NBC News

Related Articles

• Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
  
  
• As Syria ceasefire begins, Bashar al-Assad quickly rejects it (13-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad, Urum al-Kubra,
Syrian Arab Red Crescent, SARC, Omar Barakat,
Stephen O'Brien, Ukraine, Malaysian Airlines flight 17,
John Kirby, France, François Hollande, Ban Ki-moon

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Sep-16 World View -- Pakistan-India tensions again surge as Pakistan demands independence for Kashmir

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan-India tensions again surge as Pakistan demands independence for Kashmir
  
• Pakistan ejects Indian journalist from New York press conference
  

****
**** Pakistan-India tensions again surge as Pakistan demands independence for Kashmir
****


Indian security personnel in Kashmir after violent protests in 2015 (PTI)

The increasingly vitriolic war of words between India and Pakistan
probably wouldn't make much difference to anyone, since it could
simply ignored as mutual political bashing, which is so common these
days in countries around the world, in this generational Crisis era.

However, the increasing vitriol is occurring in the context of
increasing "organic" violence in Indian-controlled Kashmir, where the
stone-throwing crowds continue to grow and India continues to respond
with pellet guns that have wounded, blinded or killed hundreds of
Kashmiri Muslims since the violence began on July 9, following the
death on July 8 of Burhan Wani, a 22-year-old commander in the
separatist militia Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), at the hands of India's
security forces.

Speaking at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Pakistan's prime
minister Nawaz Sharif glorified Burhan Wani, condemned India's
violence, and demanded independence for Indian-controlled Kashmir.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[Burhan Wani] represents a new generation of
> Kashmiris are fighting for freedom against India.
>
> This indigenous uprising of the Kashmiris has been met, as usual,
> with brutal repression by India’s occupation force of over half a
> million soldiers. Over a hundred Kashmiris have been killed,
> hundreds, including children and infants, blinded by shotgun
> pellets and over six thousand unarmed civilians injured over the
> past two months.
>
> On behalf of the Kashmiri people; on behalf of the mothers, wives,
> sisters, and fathers of the innocent Kashmiri children, women and
> men who have been killed, blinded and injured; on behalf of the
> Pakistani nation, I demand an independent inquiry into the
> extra-judicial killings, and a UN fact finding mission to
> investigate brutalities perpetrated by the Indian occupying
> forces, so that those guilty of these atrocities are punished.
>
> Pakistan fully supports Kashmiris' right to
> self-determination."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Sharif also referred to an arms buildup in India, and said, "The
international community ignores the dangers of rising tensions in
South Asia at its own peril,"

By "self-determination," Sharif is referring to a 1951 UN Security
Council resolution mandating an election to permit Kashmiri
self-determination. Neither side is obeying this resolution, as
neither side is willing to give up the portions of Kashmir and Jammu
provinces that it controls. According to polls, even Kashmiri Muslims
want an independent state, and do not wish to be part of either India
or Pakistan. However, neither Pakistan nor India would ever agree to
this.

An Indian official responded, "It is shocking that a leader of a free
nation can glorify a self-declared terrorist (Burhan Wani). This is
self-incrimination by Pakistan."

India has accused Pakistan of being behind the violence and unrest in
Kashmir, and also of being a "terrorist state" behind Sunday's militant attack on an Indian army base in Kashmir,
the worst terrorist attack in Kashmir in decades.

It's certainly possible that Pakistan's government backing violence
and terrorist attacks in Kashmir, but it's not necessary. As I've
been describing, the violence is "organic," meaning that it comes from
the people rather than from the politicians. India and Pakistan are
returning to the massive violence of their last two generational
crisis wars, India's 1857 Rebellion and the 1947 Partition war.
The News (Pakistan) and Reuters and Daily Mail (London)

Related Articles

• New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation (19-Sep-2016)
  
  
• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** Pakistan ejects Indian journalist from New York press conference
****

Following the speech by Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif,
Pakistan Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry held a press
conference at the Roosevelt Hotel in New York. According to reports,
Chaudhry demanded that no Indians be permitted to attend the press
conference, and ordered the ejection of New Delhi TV's reporter
Namrata Brar.

According to the reports, the order was given "Iss Indian ko nikalo,"
which means "Remove this Indian."

Ejecting an Indian reporter from a Pakistani press conference is just
one more sign of the growing xenophobic hatred between Hindus and
Muslims in the region, but apparently the Pakistani action is
triggering hilarity and mocking the phrase 'Iss Indian Ko Nikalo' in
social media.

One tweet said: "Pakistani Official Said 'Iss Indian Ko Nikalo' to
NDTV Journalist. UNESCO Has Declared It As Sarcasm Of The Year."

Another tweeter made fun of the fact that the speaker even uttered the
word "Indian": "I strongly object this statement of Pakistan,
specially the word ‘Indian’ is totally not acceptable for ndtv."

Another made fun of the fact that not all NDTV journalists are Indian:
"Iss Indian Ko Nikalo was clearly a case of mistaken identity. Where
was the Indian?" New Delhi TV and Indian Express

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, India, Nawaz Sharif,
Kashmir, Burhan Wani, India's 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition war,
Iss Indian ko nikalo, Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry,
Namrata Brar, New Delhi TV, NDTV

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Sep-16 World View -- US and Turkey headed for collision in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's Erdogan blames the EU for reneging on the refugee deal
  
• With Turkey 'left alone,' Erdogan announces refugee plan conflicting with US plans
  
• A major new flood of refugees starting to flee from Mosul in Iraq
  

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan blames the EU for reneging on the refugee deal
****


Refugees in a refugee center south of Mosul, February 14, 2016 (Reuters)

In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday,
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed the European Union for
not fulfilling its commitments in the EU-Turkey refugee deal:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"As a response to this, the promises made by the EU to
> Turkey were unfortunately not been kept. ...
>
> Turkey was left alone since the beginning of Syrian conflict and
> once again I think we are facing the same consequence. ...
>
> As Turkey, with a humanitarian-centered approach, we have kept our
> borders wide open to those fleeing tyranny and oppression. ...
>
> In a world, where babies are murdered, no one can remain innocent.
> We should immediately, promptly and resolutely take action to stop
> this crisis, otherwise we won't have the opportunity to explain to
> the future generations why we were delayed in our
> actions."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Erdogan's point is that Turkey is hosting three million refugees from
Syria and Iraq, but European Union promises of aid have not been kept,
leaving Turkey to solve this overwhelming problem on its own, despite
the help that Turkey has given to Europe in dramatically slowing the
flow of refugees across the Aegean Sea to Europe. Anadolu (Ankara) and Al Monitor

****
**** With Turkey 'left alone,' Erdogan announces refugee plan conflicting with US plans
****

In his UN speech, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that
Turkey has been "left alone," and he made it clear that Turkey is now
going to solve its overwhelming refugee problem in its own way, but
that way could put it into direct conflict with US plans in Syria.

Turkey's invasion of Syria, called "Operation Euphrates Shield," has
created a "safe zone" of about 900 square kilometers (560 square
miles).

In his speech, Erdogan announced plans to increase the size of the
"safe zone" to 5,000 square kilometers (3,100 square miles), and he
stated three goals:

• A "no-fly zone" over northern Syria to prevent the regime’s
  aircraft from attacking;
  
• A "safe zone" where displaced Syrians could be resettled;
  
• Cooperation with the United States to train and equip the Syrian
  opposition fighting against the regime of Syria's president Bashar
  al-Assad.

The expanded safe zone would be controlled by Turkey, and would
achieve another major objective not mentioned: preventing the Kurds
from controlling a long strip of land along Turkey's border,
stretching almost all the way from the Mediterranean in the west to
Iraq in the east. The safe zone would push the Kurds south and east,
keeping them far from Turkey's border.

Erdogan's objectives would appear to be well coordinated with the US,
but drilling down into the details reveals big conflicts.

The city of Raqqa in Syria is the de facto capital of the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The US
military is preparing a campaign to be launched in October to
recapture Raqqa from ISIS. The US plans to directly arm the Syrian
Kurds to fight ISIS in Raqqa.

However, Turkey considers the Syrian Kurdish militias to be terrorist
groups, linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK has
conducted several large terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last year,
they are considered a terror group by the US and the EU. So Turkey
wants nothing to do with the Kurdish militias in Syria, and strongly
opposes the US plan to arm them. ARA News (Syria-Kurdish) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters

Related Stories

• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Turkey will build 'residential cities' in Syria buffer zone (16-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** A major new flood of refugees starting to flee from Mosul in Iraq
****

A major new humanitarian disaster appears to be imminent in Iraq, as
over a million refugees may flee Mosul as Iraqi forces begin an
extremely bloody battle to evict ISIS from Mosul.

Many of the refugees are expected to flee to Kurdistan, the
Kurdish-controlled area of Iraq. Kurdistan currently hosts more than
1.8 million refugees, and another half-million or more refugees
pouring into Kurdistan would completely overwhelm its ability to feed
and provide shelter. The UK has already promised to give $52 million
to Iraq, ahead of the Mosul offensive, to prepare for the influx, but
Kurdish officials say that billions more in aid are needed. Fox News and ARA News and Al Arabiya

Related Stories

• Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS (11-Jun-2014)
  
  
• Kurds battle ISIS for strategic Mosul Dam in Iraq (18-Aug-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Operation Euphrates Shield,
safe zone, no-fly zone, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iraq, Mosul, Kurdistan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Sep-16 World View -- Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble
  
• Responses to reader comments
  

****
**** Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble
****


Aftermath of bombing in Aleppo on Friday (AP)

US Secretary of State John Kerry has once again been the major
instigator and Russia's useful idiot for what has turned out to be a
new foreign policy farce for the Obama administration. As I wrote
when the ceasefire agreement was first announced,
just a few days ago, ceasefire agreements in the
middle of a war are almost always worthless, and this one was
particularly farcical because Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has
repeatedly made clear that's he's going to massacre all the
"terrorists," by which he means all Sunni Muslim civilians, including
women and children. A real ceasefire would give new life to the
residents of Aleppo, and al-Assad wants them dead, not alive. So
there was literally a zero probability that the ceasefire would last.

The particular event that signaled the failure of this ceasefire was
the missile attack, by either Syrian or Russian warplanes, on a truck
convoy that was delivering food, water, medicines, and other
humanitarian aid to east Aleppo.

Right off, we can see what a farce this is. Al-Assad doesn't want a
humanitarian aid cargo to reach east Aleppo. There are hundreds of
thousands of civilians there, and al-Assad wants them all dead. So of
course he was going to make sure that the aid convoy didn't reach
them. This is not rocket science. The warplanes destroyed 18 of 31
trucks in the convoy.

Immediately we had to listen to the moronic statements of Bashar
al-Assad and Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, claiming that
nothing had happened, or that the "terrorists" had bombed the trucks,
or that an American drone had struck the convoy with missiles.

At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Secretary of State
John Kerry mocked and made fun of Syrian and Russian excuses:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"According to spokesman Igor Konashenkov, I quote,
> "Neither Russia nor Syria conducted air strikes on the UN
> humanitarian convey in the suburb on the outskirts of Aleppo."
> That's a quote.
>
> Then Komashenkov went further, and he said "The damage to the
> convoy was a direct result of the cargo catching fire." The
> trucks and foods and the medicine just spontaneously combusted.
> Anybody here believe that? I mean this is not a joke. We're in
> serious business here."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Kerry waved his arms in the air to emphasize the idiocy of the
suggestion that 18 of 31 trucks were destroyed by spontaneous
combustion. But this is the level of discourse that's filling the
halls of the United Nations, rapidly turning into the most useless
organization in the world.

And we have to ask what the hell Kerry thinks he's doing. Kerry must
have known that the ceasefire would quickly fail, as it did. Kerry
must have known that the Syrians and Russians would use the ceasefire
as an opportunity to reorganize and rearm in preparation for the end
of the ceasefire. Kerry must have known the Syrians and the Russians
were making a complete fool out of him.

The most likely explanation is that Kerry still hopes that the loons
in Sweden will give him the Nobel Peace Prize when they announce it
October 7. They gave it to Obama in 2009 "for his extraordinary
efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between
peoples."

So why not? If Kerry stumbles and lurches from one failed policy to
the next, all in the name of "peace," then why shouldn't the Swedish
loon give it to Kerry for exactly the same reason: "for his
extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and
cooperation between peoples" -- even though all such efforts have been
absurd failures.

On Friday, Syrian and Russian warplanes appeared to be closing in for
the killed. Hundreds of missiles and barrel bombs rained down on
eastern Aleppo, turning many neighborhoods to rubble mixed with blood
and body parts. Washington Post and CNN

Related Articles

• Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Responses to reader comments
****

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Syrian government is working with the terrorist
> group Hezbollah, a sworn enemy of Israel."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is a very good point that isn't mentioned enough. Hezbollah,
Bashar al-Assad, and Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei are all committed to the destruction of Israel.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Give it up Breitbart, We the people don't want a war
> with Syria. Let Saudi Arabia and Israel fight they're own wars
> for the pipeline. The lives of are sons and daughters should not
> be sacrificed for globalist!"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

One of the bitter ironies of the way the world works is that war is
rarely a choice. The United States has mutual defense treaties with
many countries: Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines,
the Marshall Islands, the ANZUS agreement with Australia and New
Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement with
all of Europe.

Even more important, there are a lot of people, in America and in the
world, who believe in American Exceptionalism, and who truly believe
that America has a moral obligation, or even an obligation dictated by
God, to do the right thing, so we won't stay out of a war very long.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Of all the players in the Syrian conflict, Erdogan is
> the most culpable. Assad being an Alawite, and therefore an
> infidel in Sunni eyes, the Gulf Arabs put up the funding and
> Erdogan the logistical support for an armed uprising against him.
> Turkey provided free passage for ISIS volunteers, training, and
> medical support. Turkey bought ISIS oil and passed on Gulf money.
> But Erdogan has a problem. He hates the Kurds even more than he
> hates Assad. And Russia supports Assad. So he is putting off the
> removal of Assad for now, the better to deal with his own Kurds,
> and those in Syria and Iraq."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This simply doesn't make any sense.

Recall that early in 2011, Turkey and Syria were allies. The historic
enmity between Alawites and Sunnis was put aside, and Turkey's prime
minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan considered Bashar al-Assad to be a
friend. Hamas had its headquarters office in Damascus, with the
support and protection of al-Assad. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Syria,
Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah were all uneasy allies, but allies nonetheless,
with only one common enemy: Israel.

Then al-Assad started exterminating peaceful anti-government
protesters. Imagine if President Obama sent out warplanes to kill
peaceful protesters on the Washington Mall, then you can understand
the shock throughout the region to al-Assad's depraved violence.

The real turning point came in August, when al-Assad started a massive
military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in
Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children
Palestinians. The US State Department called the attacks "abhorrent
and repulsive."

Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu issued a stark warning to
Syrian authorities to immediately halt military operations across the
country, or Turkey would "take steps," although those steps were not
specified:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If these operations do not stop there will be nothing
> left to say about the steps that would be taken. This is our
> final word to the Syrian authorities, our first expectation is
> that these operations stop immediately and unconditionally.
>
> In the context of human rights this cannot be seen as a domestic
> issue."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Turkey never took direct military action against Syria (until 2016
with Operation Euphrates Shield), but the attack on the refugee camp
completely changed Mideast politics. Turkey began turning against
al-Assad, reviving the old Alawite-Sunni fault line. Hamas withdrew
its headquarters from Damascus and moved it to Qatar. The Saudis and
Turks began supporting "moderate" Syrian opposition rebels, some of
whom aligned themselves with al-Qaeda as the al-Nusra Front. Tens of
thousands of jihadists from dozens of countries around the world
started pouring into Syria to fight al-Assad, later forming themselves
into the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

It's now five years later, and it's almost beyond belief how Bashar
al-Assad, with the support of Russia, Hezbollah and Iran, has caused
the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 21st century so far. Syria
itself is turning into rubble, but al-Assad's disaster goes well
beyond Syria's borders. Sectarian tensions are at a fever pitch, with
Iran and Saudi Arabia close to war. Al-Assad has created millions of
refugees, flooding into neighboring countries and Europe.

So Erdogan did not foment an armed uprising against al-Assad.
Al-Assad did that all by himself by his extermination of peaceful
protesters, with a major turning point at his massive military attack
on the Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia.

Related Articles

• Turkey threatens Syria, as military attacks Palestinian refugee camp (16-Aug-2011)
  
  
• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  
  
• US and Turkey headed for collision in Syria (23-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad, John Kerry,
Sergei Lavrov, Igor Konashenkov, Alawites, Iran,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Palestinians, Ahmet Davutoglu

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Sep-16 World View -- US will deport tens of thousands of Haitian immigrants surging toward California

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Surge of nearly 40,000 Haitians on their way to California
  
• How Haitians travel to the United States
  
• Illinois Rep Luis V. Gutiérrez demands TPS status for Ecuadorians
  

****
**** Surge of nearly 40,000 Haitians on their way to California
****


From 2004 - Poor neighborhood in Haiti

Sarah Saldaña, Director of U.S Immigration and Customs Enforcement
said that new figures indicate that 40,000 Haitians are on their way
to the Mexican border with the United States. Most are headed for
Tijuana, from where they expect to cross the border legally to San
Diego, California. Once in the United States, they travel to
established Haitian communities in New York and Miami.

Following the enormous January 2010 earthquake in Haiti, the US
granted Haitian nationals "Temporary Protected Status (TPS)," which
permits them to live and work in the United States without being
subject to deportation.

The following table shows the number of undocumented Haitians arriving
in San Diego and Miami as of August 31, 2016:


Year San Diego Miami
---- -------- -----
2014 479 249
2015 339 266
2016 4,346 216


There is already an emergency situation on the San Diego border, where
4,346 Haitians have arrived so far this year, while only 216 arrived
in all of last year. Saldaña says that information from Central
American countries indicates that tens of thousands more are en
route. According to Saldaña, many Haitians have been working in
Brazil and other South American countries, but are now out of work
because of severe economic downturns.

Up until Thursday, Haitians presenting themselves at the US border
were allowed into the US under the TPS humanitarian program. But as
of Thursday, Haitians seeking entry now are subject to a fast-track
process called Expedited Removal that entails immediate detention,
likely followed by deportation.

However, that plan will require cooperation with the government of
Haiti, which has yet to make a statement. It's unclear what will
happen if Haiti refuses to accept deported immigrants. Even before
the earthquake, Haiti was one of the poorest countries in the world,
and it still hasn't recovered from the earthquake. Furthermore,
Haiti's government is in chaos, run by acting president Jocelerme
Privert after Michel Martelly stepped down as president without a
successor. Haiti Libre and LA Times and US Dept. of Homeland Security and Haiti Libre

Related Articles

• Haiti's parliamentary elections promise little besides chaos (09-Aug-2015)
  
  
• Hurricane Sandy a new disaster for Haiti (31-Oct-2012)
  
  
• Haiti, seething with ethnic violence, may require US forces for a long time (17-Jan-2010)
  
  
• Haiti - Rebellion and anarchy? (04-Mar-2004)

****
**** How Haitians travel to the United States
****

Research gathered by the Miami Herald shows the path that
Haitians take to arrive in the US. The travel begins
with a plane trip to Rio de Janeiro in southern Brazil,
and continues through 12 countries:

• Brazil: Haitians arrive in Rio Branco by plane or bus.
  For about $100, a taxi will take them to Peru's border.
  
  
• Peru: Travelers head toward Ecuador, starting with a
  four-day bus trip that costs up to $300 for smugglers to take them to
  immigration for a $20 transit document. Buses take them to the border
  for about $130 more.
  
  
• Ecuador: Haitians aim for Tulcan near the Colombian border
  by bus for $15 or with a smuggler for about $200.
  
  
• Colombia: Haitians start assuming Congolese identities,
  believing authorities will be reluctant to deport them to West
  Africa. Smugglers help them cross Colombia for $300 or more.
  
  
• Darien Gap: The route through the roadless swath of tropical
  rainforest runs about 100 miles and takes four to 20 days to cross on
  foot. Costly dugout canoe or motorboat rides are also options and they
  must pay gangs or local Indians for help.
  
  
• Panama: Panama's border police can turn back travelers at
  any time while crossing rivers and mountains. Once out of the jungle,
  travelers take a bus to Costa Rica.
  
  
• Costa Rica: Crossing Costa Rica isn't a problem but leaving
  can be. Haitian migrants can spend months at the border trying to get
  into Nicaragua with the help of a smuggler.
  
  
• Nicaragua: The nation has closed its border to undocumented
  migrants. Those caught are returned to Costa Rica or spend up to
  $1,000 to be moved across the country.
  
  
• Honduras: Haitians have been arrested at the border
  crossing but this is the easiest of the crossings say migrants who
  take a $30 bus ride to Guatemala.
  
  
• Guatemala: Migrants face detention and have to pay
  smugglers $300 or more to get through.
  
  
• Mexico: Haitian migrants are often detained before they
  receive a 20-day transit document. They take a bus from the border to
  Tijuana, where they go to any of four migrant shelters or a hotel
  before presenting themselves to U.S. border patrol.
  
  
• San Diego: On the U.S. side of the border, Haitians are
  helped by a small group of Haitian Americans to find relatives to
  settle in South Florida.

That's how it used to work, until Thursday. Starting then, the
Haitians crossing the border are held in detention until a hearing can
be held, after which they'll be deported. Miami Herald

Related Articles

• Central Americans reach agreement on letting Cuban migrants reach the US (30-Dec-2015)
  

****
**** Illinois Rep Luis V. Gutiérrez demands TPS status for Ecuadorians
****

A strong earthquake struck Ecuador on April 16 of this year, killing
700, with thousands injured and homeless, leading to demands that
Ecuadorians be given the same Temporary Protected Status (TPS) that
was granted to Haitians after their 2011 earthquake. According to
government figures, there are more than 200,000 undocumented
Ecuadoreans in the U.S. among the one million Ecuadoreans residing in
the country. Many of those would benefit from the TPS if granted.

Besides Haiti, several Latin American countries have TPS status. El
Salvador has had TPS status since 2001 because of a devastating
earthquake. Nicaragua and Honduras have had TPS status since a
hurricane that happened 18 years ago.

According to a statement by Rep. Luis V. Gutiérrez (D-IL):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"My constituents and I would greatly appreciate
> knowing what exactly the State Department recommended to DHS on
> this matter,” the Congressman wrote today to Secretary Kerry. “In
> the interests of transparency, especially for the numerous
> Ecuadorian nationals living in the U.S. and those U.S. citizens
> with strong ties to Ecuador, I urge you to make public the
> recommendation that was made by State to DHS regarding TPS...
> Citizens of Ecuador and citizens of the United States deserve to
> know how the U.S. government is deliberating – or failing to
> deliberate – a TPS designation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Gutiérrez added that "People’s lives hang in the balance." Lawndale (Ill) News (1-Sep) and Telesur TV (18-May-2016) and US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Haiti, Temporary Protected Status, TPS,
Tijuana, San Diego, Miami,
Sarah Saldaña, U.S Immigration and Customs Enforcement,
Jocelerme Privert, Michel Martelly,
Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Darian Gap,
Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatamela, Mexico,
Luis V. Gutiérrez

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Sep-16 World View -- Murder of Jordan writer exposes fault line between secularists and Muslim Brotherhood

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Writer Nahed Hattar, accused of blasphemy, gunned down in Amman, Jordan
  
• Nahed Hattar shooting exposes Jordan's secularist vs Muslim Brotherhood fault line
  

****
**** Writer Nahed Hattar, accused of blasphemy, gunned down in Amman, Jordan
****


A mourner holds up a photo of Nahed Hattar, who was murdered on Sunday (Reuters)

Nahed Hattar, 56, a controversial satirical writer in Jordan, was
gunned down on Sunday in front of a courthouse where he had been on
trial for blasphemy for posting a cartoon deemed offensive to Islam.
He was shot by Riad Abdullah, 49, a conservative Muslim and former
imam, thought to be a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Hattar, self-described as a Christian atheist, was arrested on August
15 on charges of insulting religion in a satirical cartoon posted on
Facebook. He intended for his cartoon to expose the hypocrisy of
jihadists in the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh). The cartoon was captioned "In paradise," and depicted an ISIS
jihadist in a tent in bed with two woman.

A bearded Allah opens the flap of the tent, and has this conversation
with the jihadist:

> [indent]<QUOTE>Allah: “May your evening be joyous, Abu Saleh, do you
> need anything?”
>
> Jihadist: “Yes Lord, bring me the glass of wine from over there
> and tell Jibril [the Angel Gabriel] to bring me some
> cashews. After that send me an eternal servant to clean the floor
> and take the empty plates with you.”
>
> Jihadist continues: “Don’t forget to put a door on the tent so
> that you knock before you enter next time, your
> gloriousness.”<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The phrase "Your gloriousness" ("Subhanekh") is considered insulting
because it's a play on the word for "Glory be to Allah"
("Subhanallah"). To see the actual cartoon, click on the "Clarion
Project" link below.

Hattar was extremely controversial not only because he was a
secularist and an atheist, but also because he was a strong supporter
of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and a critic of ISIS and
al-Qaeda.

So far, Jordan has escaped the worst of the sectarian and ethnic
violence that has occurred in other Mideast countries, although there
have been some terrorist acts. The worst so far was an ISIS suicide
car bombing near the Syrian border in June, killing seven Jordanian
soldiers. Jordan reacted by closing the border with Syria.

Because of the blatant nature of Sunday's attack in the heart of
Amman, Jordan's capital city, it's feared that sectarian tensions
between secularists and Islamists will increase, triggering
tit-for-tat revenge attacks. Jordan Times and AP and Clarion Project (15-Aug)

Related Articles

• Pakistan executes liberal politician Salman Taseer for blasphemy (01-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Charlie Hebdo and blasphemy laws in the UK, Ireland and Pakistan (20-Sep-2012)
  

****
**** Nahed Hattar shooting exposes Jordan's secularist vs Muslim Brotherhood fault line
****

The family of Nahed Hattar is blaming his murder on Jordan's prime
minister, Hani Mulki, for bringing him to trial on blasphemy charges
in the first place, and for not protecting him from extremists. In a
statement, the family said, "Many fanatics wrote on social media
calling for his killing and lynching, and the government did nothing
against them."

In the aftermath of the shooting, Mulki and his cabinet were forced to
resign. However, the King Abdullah of Jordan asked Mulki to stay on
as a caretaker, and then to form a new government with a new cabinet.

However, Jordanian society is deeply split. Muslim Brotherhood MP
Dima Tahboub wrote, "Seculars are the downfall of our society."

One analyst said, "I am deeply disturbed by what has happened today,
and even more by the fact that some people are celebrating the murder
on social media."

Other tweets include the following:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The ugliness that lurks within the Jordanian masses
> rears its head in the response to the assassination of
> #NahedHattar."
>
> "To hell and good riddance, God bless the shooter, (We) are a
> people God is proud of."
>
> "I disagree with Nahed Hattar’s ideas, but I’m afraid for my
> country and my children after seeing all the tweets that have come
> out welcoming his killing!"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Jordan's King Abdullah was interviewed on Sunday on CBS's 60 Minutes,
but the interview had been recorded before Hattar's murder. Petra (Jordan government) and Al Bawaba and Middle East Eye and 60 Minutes

Related Articles

• Turkey and Jordan separately plan invasions of Syria (30-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Jordan's King demands more refugee aid from international community(03-Feb-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jordan, Nahed Hattar, Riad Abdullah,
Muslim Brotherhood, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Hani Mulki, King Abdullah, Dima Tahboub

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Sep-16 World View -- US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russian warplanes drop phosphorus bombs and bunker buster bombs on Aleppo
  
• Comparisons of Syria civil war to Sri Lanka civil war
  
• US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes
  

****
**** Russian warplanes drop phosphorus bombs and bunker buster bombs on Aleppo
****


White helmet workers in Aleppo find a small child in the rubble after a bombing (CNN)

In 2015, Syria's army suffered a string of defeats, and even al-Assad
admitted that his army was in danger of collapse. That was turned
around when Russia fully entered the war in September of last year.

Earlier this year on March 15, Russia's president Vladimir Putin
announced that most of Russia's forces in Syria would be withdrawn
because "the objectives set before the Defense Ministry and the Armed
Forces have on the whole been achieved."

Russia has been forced to reverse this withdrawal, as Bashar
al-Assad's Syrian army appeared last month once again to be
collapsing. Furthermore, Turkey has invaded Syria with "Operation
Euphrates Shield," and is setting up a growing "safe zone" in Syria
along Turkey's border that will not easily be displaced. Other
regions of Syria are being controlled by the Kurds, by the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and by Jabhat al-Nusra
(al-Nusra Front, now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham or JFS). I heard one
analyst say that Al-Assad is being reduced to be ruler of
"Alawite-istan," meaning that al-Assad, an Alawite, may end up being
president of only a small portion of Syria along the Mediterranean
Sea.

Hoping to prevent complete disaster for al-Assad, Russia is back with
more force than ever, and with bigger weapons than ever -- phosphorous
incendiary bombs that suffocate people by sucking up all the oxygen,
cluster munitions, and huge "bunker buster" bombs that penetrate deep
underground by punching holes in concrete before detonating, bringing
down whole buildings.

Some reports indicate that the Russians have targeted hospitals whose
operating rooms have moved to the basement for safety, but are now
vulnerable to bunker buster bombs. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
said, "Let us remember: the fighting has forced hospitals and schools
to operate in basements. These bombs are not busting bunkers; they are
demolishing ordinary people looking for any last refuge of safety."
Foreign Policy and Daily Mail (London)

Related Articles

• Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse (04-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Russia declared 'Mission complete' in Syria and withdrew, but the war rages on (05-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse (08-Apr-2015)
  

****
**** Comparisons of Syria civil war to Sri Lanka civil war
****

I heard an analyst today compare the war in Syria to the Sri Lanka
civil war. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that
comparison does not hold up. In fact, the situation is Syria is
almost the exact opposite of the situation in Sri Lanka in 2009.

As long-time readers may recall, as the Sri Lanka civil war approached
a climax in May 2009, every news organization and analyst that
reported on the civil war were predicting that the civil war would
continue on for months or years, because it had already gone on for 26
years.

As far as I know, every analysis in the world was wrong except the
Generational Dynamics analysis. As I had been saying for months
earlier, the Sri Lanka civil war was a generational crisis war, headed
for an explosive climax, and when that climax was finally reached,
then the war would be over once and for all. The comparison I made
was to the surrender of Berlin and Tokyo that ended World War II once
and for all.

In January 2008, the low-level violence turned into a full scale
generational crisis war, as we reported at the time. Finally, in May
2009, the Sinhalese army trapped the Tamil Tiger militants in a
U.N.-declared "safe zone" and slaughtered them, including a number of
civilians, although 50,000 civilians that had been trapped there were
freed. That was the end of the war.

This analyst said that al-Assad and Putin expect a similar outcome
in Syria from the current flattening of Aleppo. This is close
to being delusional.

The Syria war is an Awakening era war, and they following a
predictable pattern that I've described many times in countries like
Burundi, Thailand, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and others. The Syria war
should have fizzled in 2011 or 2012, but continued only because of the
depraved violence of Bashar al-Assad, backed up force from Iran and
Hezbollah, and especially by massive flattening of civilian
neighborhoods by Russian bombs.

The pattern for an Awakening era war is that it runs for a while, then
it stops because of some kind of peace agreement, then picks up again
a few months or years later. The primary pattern of an Awakening era
war is this alternation between conflict and "peace" -- where the
peace is characterized by peaceful demonstrations and protests.

The bombing of Aleppo does not change that fundamental pattern. World
War II ended with the fall of Berlin, and with the nuking of Japanese
cities. The Sri Lanka war ended with the trapping and slaughter of
the Tamil Tiger rebels. But none of that is true in Aleppo.

Consider the statistic that some 600 civilians in Aleppo were killed
over the weekend. That's a lot of civilians, but that kind of
slaughter isn't enough to stop the Kurds, ISIS, al-Nusra or Turkey.
There are over 200,000 civilians living in Aleppo, and Russia's
phosphorous incendiary bombs, cluster munitions, and "bunker buster"
bombs are not going to end the war.

At times like this I become philosophical. If policy makers and
politicians understood generational theory, then they wouldn't make so
many stupid mistakes. But one can't expect delusional leaders like
al-Assad and Putin to act rationally, unfortunately. Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels (04-Jan-2008)
  
  
• Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war (17-May-2009)
  

****
**** US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes
****

Relations between Russia and the West reached a vitriolic height at an
emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Sunday.
In the past, Western politicians diplomatically refrained from
criticizing Russia, in the hope from bringing peace to Syria. But
Western officials have been made fools of so many times, and the
Syrian war has been such a geopolitical disaster that Western
officials no longer see the point of being diplomatic.

Samantha Power, the US Ambassador to the UN accused Sergei Lavrov, the
Russian Ambassador to the UN, of repeated lying. She added:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"What Russia is sponsoring and doing is not
> counterterrorism, it is barbarism. Instead of pursuing peace,
> Russia and Assad make war. Instead of helping get life-saving aid
> to civilians, Russia and Assad are bombing the humanitarian
> convoys, hospitals and first responders who are trying desperately
> to keep people alive."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he was "appalled" by the military
escalation and that the use of bunker-busting bombs "brings the
violence to new depths of barbarity."

Matthew Rycroft, Britain's ambassador to the UN, said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"After five years of conflict, you might think that
> the regime has had its fill of barbarity -- that its sick
> bloodlust against its own people has finally run its course.
>
> But this weekend, the regime and Russia have instead plunged to
> new depths and unleashed a new hell on Aleppo. This isn't
> Pompeii."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Sergei Lavrov said that the Western accusations were an attempt to
deflect attention from last week's accidental bombing of a Syrian army
unit:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I would like to emphasize that the Americans and
> their Western allies, for one thing, want to distract public
> attention from what had happened in Deir Ezzor."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Syrian officials later said that the Deir Ezzor bombing was
"intentional."

Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed outrage at the charges of
barbarism and war crimes directed at Russia:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We note the overall unacceptable tone and rhetoric of
> the representatives of the United Kingdom and the United States,
> which can damage and harm our relations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's particularly ironic for Peskov to worry about damaging and
harming Russia's relations with the West.

Guardian (London) and CNN and Russia Today

Related Articles

• Furious UN envoy Staffan de Mistura excoriates Syria's Bashar al-Assad (19-Aug-2016)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Turkey, Operation Euphrates Shield, Ban Ki-moon, Aleppo,
Iran, Hezbollah, Sergei Lavrov, Samantha Power, Matthew Rycroft,
Sri Lanka, Tamil Tigers,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Sep-16 World View -- As ISIS loses territory, it turns increasingly to terrorism

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• ISIS losing territory in Iraq and Syria
  
• Pyrrhic victory over ISIS could create a 'terrorist diaspora'
  

****
**** ISIS losing territory in Iraq and Syria
****


Smoke rising from a burning oil well in the town of Qayyara as set on fire by ISIS as they fled the town (Rudaw)

Ever since the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
shocked the entire Mideast by capturing Mosul in Iraq in June, 2014,
it's been an important objective of Iraq's army to recapture Mosul,
and indeed it's been an important objective of the Iraqis, Kurds,
Turks and Syrians to stop the spread of ISIS.

Iraq's Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi has repeatedly said that he
wants the army to begin to take Mosul back from ISIS before the end of
2016. Other analysts say that 2016 is unrealistic, but recapturing
Mosul during 2017 is realistic.

At one time, ISIS controlled huge swaths of territory in Syria
and Iraq, and seemed unstoppable. But in the last year,
ISIS has suffered some significant defeats.

Iraq's army and Shia militias backed by the U.S. led air coalition
have successfully driven ISIS out of Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah
during 2016. The also recaptured Shargat and Qayyara, two oil rich
towns in northern Iraq. Kurdish forces drove ISIS out of southern
Kirkuk’s Hamrin and Hijel oilfields. ISIS had depended on oil for a
large part of its income, ISIS no longer holds an oil well in Iraq,
which has severely weakened its finances.

ISIS has also suffered badly in Syria. ISIS had controlled Manbij and
Jarabulus in Syria along the border with Turkey, allowing ISIS to move
people and supplies back and forth across the border. Kurdish forces
recaptured both cities in a month-long push. But then Turkey
invaded Syria in Operation Euphrates Shield, and drove the Kurds
out of both cities.

Some analysts and politicians are saying that, after so many
defeats, ISIS is close to total defeat, especially after Mosul
is recaptured.

However, Mosul may be a lot harder to recapture than analysts
expect. Mosul has a population of over 2 million people, almost
all Sunni Muslims and ethnic Iraqis. This means that both Shia
militias and Kurdish militias will be reluctant to take
part in the military operations.

Even more important is that fact that ISIS is expected to "fight to
the last man." In the smaller cities, ISIS forces simply fled as the
opposing armies approached. But Mosul is preparing for a major
defense of its control of Mosul. ISIS has built huge walls in Mosul's
airport, to prevent landings. It has fortified routes into the city
by digging vast trenches that could be filled with oil and set alight.
And it is digging vast networks of tunnels across the city where they
can hide from enemy fire.

The battle to recapture Mosul is expected to be very big and very
bloody. Already a major new flood refugees are fleeing from Mosul,
and there may be a major new humanitarian disaster in progress in the
next few months. Guardian (London, 7-Sep) and Rudaw (Iraq-Kurdish)
and Independent (London)

Related Articles

• Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS (11-Jun-2014)
  
  
• A major new flood of refugees starting to flee from Mosul in Iraq (23-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Pyrrhic victory over ISIS could create a 'terrorist diaspora'
****

A "Pyrrhic victory" is a victory, but one that comes at too great a
cost. After King Pyrrhus of Epirus defeated the Romans in 279 BC, the
losses were so great that he's quoted as saying, "One more victory
against the Romans and we will be ruined."

Many people fear that the defeat of ISIS could be a Pyrrhic victory.
This was most clearly stated on Tuesday by FBI Directory James Comey,
who said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The so-called caliphate will be crushed. The
> challenge will be: Through the fingers of that crush are going to
> come hundreds of very, very dangerous people. They will not all
> die on the battlefield in Syria and Iraq. There will be a
> terrorist diaspora sometime in the next two to five years like
> we've never seen before. ...
>
> We must prepare ourselves and our allies particularly in western
> Europe to confront that threat because when ISIL is reduced to an
> insurgency and those killers flow out they will try to come to
> western Europe and try to come here to kill innocent
> people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There are tens of thousands of jihadists in ISIS, having come from
over 80 countries around the world to fight Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad. Crushing the ISIS "caliphate" will be a great victory, for
which politicians will heartily congratulate themselves and take
credit, but there will still be tens of thousands of jihadists. Some
will remain in Syria and Iraq, but as we've been writing since 2012,
thousands of them will return to their home countries, including
America and Europe, create, as Comey said, "a terrorist diaspora like
we've never seen before." UPI

Related Articles

• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Syria, Mosul, Haidar al-Abadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Tikrit, Ramadi, Fallujah, Shargat, Qayyara, James Comey,
Hamrin, Hijel, Manbij, Jarabulus, Turkey, Operation Euphrates Shield

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Sep-16 World View -- Wells Fargo receives laughable 'punishment' for massive criminal fraud

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Wells Fargo found to have defrauded millions of customers
  
• Reasons given why no criminal prosecutions of bankers for criminal fraud
  

****
**** Wells Fargo found to have defrauded millions of customers
****


Wells Fargo branch in New York (AP)

An audit consulting firm has determined that Wells Fargo opened over
1.5 million "ghost" bank accounts in the name of customers who didn't
even know about it.

Apparently the way it worked was as follows:

• A Wells Fargo employee created a new "ghost" checking account
  in the name of an existing customers, without notifying the customer.
  There were 1.5 million "ghost" checking accounts.
  
  
• The employee moved funds from the customer's existing account into
  the ghost account, so that the account would look valid.
  
  
• The employee's high sales volume would be rewarded with big
  bonuses, in addition to their already high salaries.
  
  
• Customers were being charged for insufficient funds or overdraft
  fees -- because there wasn't enough money in their original
  accounts.
  
  
• Employees also created half a million "ghost" credit card
  accounts, with phony PIN numbers and fake e-mail addresses, to enroll
  customers in online banking services.
  
  
• Customers would be assessed non-payment fees. Since the customers
  weren't even aware of the ghost checking and credit card accounts, the
  overdraft and non-payment fees would often be unpaid, harming their
  credit ratings, forcing them into car loans or mortgage loans with
  high interest rates.

This wasn't one or two rogue employees. This was thousands of
employees defrauding millions of customers. The size of this fraud is
mind-boggling. The number of crooked employees is staggering. The
number of defrauded customers is beyond belief.

And yet it's clear that nobody will go to jail. The crooked employees
will keep their huge bonuses, and even if they've been fired, they'll
be perfectly free to go on to other jobs and defraud other people,
because with the rise of Generation-X, fraud has essentially become a
free crime.

Wells Fargo was fined $185 million by the Consumer Finance Protection
Bureau. Wells Fargo's net income in the second quarter was $5.6
billion, so the fine is just 3.3% of one quarter's net income (or less
than 1% of annual income). Wells Fargo's CEO John Stumpf was fired
and fined $41 million, but that leaves him with more than $100 million
in company stock and millions in salary.

I've already used the words "mind-boggling," "staggering" and "beyond
belief," so there are no words left to describe the enormity of this
farce. Bankers can get away with almost anything today, with no
punishment except sometimes to give back a small portion of their
fraudulent gains, and then they're free to go to the next fraud.

I've written about this many times in the past. First there was the
"financial crisis" of the mid-2000s decade. That was created by
Gen-Xers who poured out of colleges in the 1990s with masters degrees
in financial engineering. Those crooks knowingly created tens of
trillions of dollars in fraudulent securities, and sold them to
investors knowing that they were defrauding the investors.

And not a single goddam one of these crooks has gone to jail or even
been criminally prosecuted.

Instead, President Obama's Department of Justice adamantly refused to
prosecute these crooks, but instead chose to accept billions of
dollars in campaign contributions from the very banks that had made
trillions of dollars fraudulently, putting millions of people into
bankruptcy or homelessness after being unable to pay their sub-prime
mortgages. I've never believed this massive level of government
corruption was possible in America, but it's happening.

In 2010, congressional Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud. I expected investigations and prosecutions to begin
at that time, but there were none. In fact, as described in the movie
"The Big Short," the crooks were financial rewarded by the
administration for their criminal fraud.

I've written many, many times, that the failure of the administration
to criminally prosecute these crooked backs would leave the same
bankers in the same jobs finding other ways to defraud people. That's
exactly what's happened. The massive Wells Fargo frauds began in
2011, according to reports. The massive Libor and Forex rate-rigging
began around the same time.

I believe that when the 2010 Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings were
completed and the crooked bankers were rewarded instead of being
prosecuted, it was a signal to bankers that they could do anything
they wanted, with impunity. This does not mean all bankers, of
course, but it means a significant minority.

As for bankers, I remember when I was growing up in the 1950s how much
my mother hated bankers, and thought they were all crooks. Bankers
seemed like nice people to me, so I never understood why she felt that
way. But I understand now. She had grown up in the 1930s, a time
when bankers were just as crooked as they are today.

If you'd like to take a few moments for some musical entertainment,
then listen to the song "Little Tin Box" from the 1959 Broadway
Musical Fiorello!, about how 1930s politicians made millions of
dollars and claimed they did it by saving their pennies in a "Little
Tin Box." YouTube: Fiorello - 'Little Tin Box' - original Broadway version
and CNN and LA Times

Related Articles

• The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X (21-Jan-2008)
  
  
• Reader comments on the Nihilism of Generation-X (29-Jan-2008)
  

****
**** Reasons given why no criminal prosecutions of bankers for criminal fraud
****

In reading and listening to news reports on the financial crisis,
reasons are sometimes given for why no one has been criminally
prosecuted. Above, I gave what I think is the real reasons -- federal
government corruption. But mainstream media reporters don't want to
criticize this administration, so they look for other reasons.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"All the banking laws were repealed by the Clinton and
> Bush administrations, so they can't be prosecuted."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The laws on criminal fraud have never been repealed. The 2010
congressional Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings found "smoking gun"
evidence of criminal fraud.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If bankers are prosecuted, then banks will become
> unable to do business, because they'll be unable to hire the right
> talent for the most difficult jobs."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Believe it or not, I've actually seen this utterly moronic reason
given for why bankers weren't prosecuted. Of course talented people
will want to work for banks -- to get those 6 and 7 digit salaries,
and also to get HONEST bonuses.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Sometimes building a strong case against individuals
> can be difficult given how big and complicated banks are, and
> sometimes, even when there is evidence, that evidence points not
> to the C-suite suits, but middle-manager types."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So what? If some "middle-manager types" are prosecuted, then other
"middle-manager types" will fear committing more crimes. As I said, I
believe that the failure to prosecute after the 2010 congressional
hearings was a signal to bankers that they could do anything they
wanted, with impunity.

Second, prosecuting "middle-manager types" allows for discovery, and
allows for getting low-level employees to turn on their bosses, so
that "the C-suite suits" can be prosecuted as well.

These reasons all miss the major point: that the Wells Fargo, Libor,
Forex and other banking scams came about because bankers knew that
they could do anything they wanted, and the worst that would happen is
that they'd have to give up a small portion of their fraudulent gains.

New York Magazine quotes Notre Dame law professor Jimmy Gurulé in
listing many recent instances of banks engaging in massive criminal
activity, and coming away only with monetary punishments:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"To take just a handful of them: In 2012, Standard
> Chartered was found to have violated the U.S.’s economics
> sanctions by moving hundreds of billions of dollars for Iran, and
> settled for $330 million. In 2012, federal investigators found
> that HSBC had, as the Times put it, “transferred billions of
> dollars for nations under United States sanctions, enabled Mexican
> drug cartels to launder tainted money through the American
> financial system, and worked closely with Saudi Arabian banks
> linked to terrorist organizations.” HSBC paid $1.92 billion. Then
> there was Barclays in 2010 — a fine of $298 million for illegal
> dealings with Cuba, Iran, Libya, Sudan, and Myanmar (before
> reluctantly approving the settlement, the judge in that case
> called it a “sweetheart deal”). Also, Credit Suisse in 2009: it
> settled for $536 million in connection with similar
> charges."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So if you're a banker, then what's the point of being honest? You can
get away with anything you want, and you won't be prosecuted. It's
mind-boggling. Washington Post and New York Magazine

Related Articles

• Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud (14-Apr-2010)
  
• 'The Big Short' - an infuriating movie about the financial crisis (26-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Reader comments on 'The Big Short' and the financial crisis (27-Dec-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Wells Fargo, John Stumpf,
Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, CFPB,
Financial Crisis Inquiry, Libor, Forex, The Big Short,
Jimmy Gurulé, Notre Dame, Fiorello!, Little Tin Box

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe