Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Sep-16 World View -- Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir
  
• China threatens Japan, South Korea and U.S. all in one day
  

****
**** Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir
****


Entrance to historic Sikh place of worship in Kashmir

India's special forces carried out a series of "targeted strikes"
early Thursday morning into the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir.
India's military says that they were targeting several "launching
pads" used by Pakistani terrorists as they prepared to cross the line
of control (LOC) separating the India-controlled and
Pakistan-controlled portions of Kashmir, in order to carry out
terrorist attacks. India's military says that dozens of militants
were killed.

This is a new escalation in the conflict between India and Pakistan,
because it's the first time in recent years that Indian soldiers
crossed over into Pakistani territory.

The targeted attacks come just a few days after a major September 18
terrorist attack on an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir. There was
a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers were killed, as were
the militants. This was the worst militant terrorist attack in
Kashmir in years.

Indian officials promised retaliation for the Uri attack, and Indian
media have been calling for a swift counter-attack. Now that one has
occurred, Indian officials are congratulatory. A statement by India's
cabinet congratulated the prime minister for "decisively ordering this
surgical operation to demolish the bases and camps of those acting
with impunity against our citizens," and added, "The operation has
been executed with clinical and professional precision by the brave
men of the Indian army."

Furious Pakistani officials responded angrily. Pakistan's Minister of
Defense Mohammad Khawaja Asif response referred to nuclear weapons:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We will destroy India if it dares to impose war on
> us. Pakistan army is fully prepared to answer any misadventure of
> India. We have not made atomic device to display in a
> showcase. If such a situation arises we will use it and eliminate
> India."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

A belief that Pakistan could "eliminate India" with nuclear weapons is
obviously delusional, and an analysis by an Indian journalist says
that India has called "Pakistan's nuclear bluff":

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Pakistan defense minister Mohammad Khwaja's threat to
> use "tactical" nuclear weapons is not just a case of political
> hyperbole. The notion that nuclear weapons deter retaliation by
> the Indian Army while allowing Pakistan to send jihadis to carry
> out terror strikes in India is a deeply held view in the Pakistani
> establishment. ...
>
> The Pakistan army's "green books" that detail operational
> philosophies, conventional and jihadi outfits, like Lashkar and
> Jaish, and nuclear weapons are a seamless triad. "The Pakistan
> army is perceived to be the center of gravity...of Pakistan which
> is backed by irregular forces (like mujahideen) and is reinforced
> by nuclear weapons," the 2008 edition says.
>
> In crossing the LoC and admitting it, India has taken on this
> nuclear blackmail, well aware that doing so carries the risk of
> escalation. "We are ready. The decision to go ahead with military
> action was taken with the full awareness that overt action can
> come at a cost," said a senior minister in the know of the
> operation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

By taunting Pakistan and call its bluff, India is guaranteeing that
there will be retaliation.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're witnessing
here is a series of "regeneracy events" that lead to full-scale
warfare. The word "regeneracy" refers to the fact that civic unity is
regenerated in each country for the first time since the end of the
previous generational crisis war. Each new attack crosses a
previously uncrossed red line, and results in retaliation which does
the same. These tit-for-tat attacks continue to escalate. In this
case, it would mean a major war between two nuclear powers. The use
of nuclear weapons by either Pakistan or India would certain being
other countries into the war, if it hasn't happened already. This is
one of the scenarios that could lead to a new world war in the next
year or two. Indian Express and International Business Times and AFP and Pakistan Today

Related Articles

• New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation (19-Sep-2016)
  
  
• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
  
  
• After 50 days of violence, unrest in India-controlled Kashmir is unabated (27-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** China threatens Japan, South Korea and U.S. all in one day
****

South Korea continues to make plans to deploy an advanced
American-supplied Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
defensive missile system -- for protection from missiles launched from
North Korea or China.

China has demanded that the deployment be cancelled, and on Thursday
announced that it "means what it says" when it says it will consider
countermeasures against the planned U.S. deployment.

Meanwhile, Japan is strengthening its ties with Vietnam and the
Philippines in common defense against China's use of military force in
the South China Sea and East China Sea. In particular, China is using
military force to illegally annex regions in the South China Sea
belonging to other countries, according to a judgment by United
Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague.

Japan has announced that it will step up activity in the South
China Sea through joint training patrols with the United States.

On Thursday, China's Defense Ministry spokesman said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We must solemnly tell Japan this is a
> miscalculation. If Japan wants to have joint patrols or drills in
> waters under Chinese jurisdiction this really is playing with
> fire. China's military will not sit idly by."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So, Thursday was a busy day in Asia. India's special forces invaded
Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, Pakistan promised retaliation, and China
threatened South Korea, the United States, and Japan. Reuters and Reuters

Related Articles

• Vietnam deploys rocket launchers in South China Sea to confront China (11-Aug-2016)
  
  
• China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system (10-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax (22-Jun-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Uri,
Mohammad Khawaja Asif, regeneracy events,
China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Oct-16 World View -- Iraq, ISIS and the West prepare for the Great Battle for Mosul to begin soon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France's aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle begins assault on ISIS in Mosul
  
• UN says Mosul could be 'largest man-made disaster in many years'
  

****
**** France's aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle begins assault on ISIS in Mosul
****


A Rafale fighter jet takes off from the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. (AFP)

On Friday, 24 Dassault Rafale jet fighters operating from the aircraft
carrier Charles de Gaulle in the eastern Mediterranean began striking
targets belonging to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh) in Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq (behind Baghdad).
Each jet was reportedly armed with four 250kg laser-guided bombs, and
one sortie was carried out roughly every three minutes.

According to a military spokesman, the airstrikes “have targeted
military commanders, administration officials, foreign fighter
facilitators, amirs, security commanders, communication leaders, and
senior shura council leadership." The Charles de Gaulle is on its
third mission since February 2015 in support of the US-led coalition
fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

France is stepping up its attacks on ISIS targets near Mosul in
preparation for the Great Battle for Mosul, which officials from Iraq,
Britain and France have all suggested could begin around mid-October.

The Pentagon is preparing by a new deployment of US forces to Iraq.
The Pentagon announced on Wednesday that it was deploying 615
additional US soldiers to Iraq in preparation for the recapture of
Mosul, bringing the number of US troops authorized for Iraq to over
5000.

ISIS is also preparing for battle. After ISIS first entered Mosul in
June 2014, it boasted about the fact that it was removing all the
concrete barriers that the Iraqi army had placed around Mosul because
they were no longer needed. Now ISIS is moving the concrete barriers
back into place.

ISIS is also digging a trench, measuring two meters in depth and
width, on one side of the concrete barriers. This was inspired by the
Battle of the Trench, in 627. Mohammed and his army were in Medina,
and an alliance of Jews and tribes from Mecca attacked Medina. The
attack failed because Mohammed's army dug a trench around Medina,
which nullified the invader's cavalry.

The trenches that ISIS is building will not surround the entire city.
The trenches supposedly connected to a network of secret tunnels ISIS
is building to aid in fighting a guerrilla war inside the city.

There are some 1.8 million people in Mosul. Even if the Great Battle
for Mosul begins in two or three weeks, as some officials are
suggesting, it will not end quickly. Estimates are that it will not
be over until mid or late 2017. France 24 and AFP and Long War Journal and The Hill

****
**** UN says Mosul could be 'largest man-made disaster in many years'
****

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Iraq director Bruno
Geddo warned that up to one million people could need assistance.
According to Geddo:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Mosul has the potential to be one of the largest man
> made disasters for many, many years. More than a million could be
> displaced as a result of the forthcoming offensive.
>
> We are planning for at least 700,000 who will be in need of
> assistance, shelter, food, water, everything that you need in a
> situation of humanitarian disaster."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The UN agency is hoping to have 11 camps finished by the end of the
year with the capacity to hold 120,000 people, while Iraqi authorities
expect to be able to house 150,000 more, he explained. Deutsche Welle and Al Bawaba

Related Stories

• Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS (11-Jun-2014)
  
  
• Kurds battle ISIS for strategic Mosul Dam in Iraq (18-Aug-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, France,
Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, Dassault Rafale jet fighter,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Mohammed, Battle of the Trench, Bruno Geddo,
UN High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Oct-16 World View -- Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Leaked John Kerry audio reveals bitter Obama administration disagreements
  
• Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria
  

****
**** Leaked John Kerry audio reveals bitter Obama administration disagreements
****


Maria Zakharova, Russia's hot Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, warns of 'tectonic shift' in Mideast

As Russia and Syria step up the ferocity of their war crimes, with
warplanes dropping barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas),
phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs, and bunker bombs indiscriminately at
civilian neighborhoods and hospitals in eastern Aleppo in Syria, a
leaked audio released by the NY Times reveals US Secretary of State
John Kerry repeatedly expressing frustration that President Barack
Obama had repeatedly refused to use any military force, when the
opportunity was available, to stop the bloody carnage.

It's widely believed that a major opportunity was lost after Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas on his own people, in June
2013. Obama has previous set a "red line" that the US would take
military action in this case, but he flip-flopped and allowed al-Assad
to continue. The US military might have destroyed al-Assad's air
force and blown up his runways, bringing an effective end to
al-Assad's war crimes. Instead, the US simply relinquished Mideast
hegemony to Syria and Russia. Syria and Russia have continued to use
chemical weapons and increasingly destructive weapons on civilians.
By withdrawing from the Mideast, and leaving a vacuum that Russia
filled, it's thought that Obama permitted the greatest geopolitical
and humanitarian disaster in decades to occur, and to worsen every
day.

Only excerpts selected by the NY Times were released from the audio,
but they included the following:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think you’re looking at three people, four people
> in the administration who have all argued for use of force, and I
> lost the argument. ... You have nobody more frustrated than we
> are."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The article doesn't mention who the other people are, but it's
well-known that President Obama eschews anything beyond absolute
minimal use of military force, no matter what the provocation.

It's also known that Kerry and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter have
had harsh disagreements over Syria policy. A major disagreement
surfaced just before the recent Syrian "ceasefire," when Kerry and the
Russians had negotiated a bizarre plan that after the ceasefire ended
the violence, then the US and Russia would cooperate on targeting
"terrorists" in Syria. Carter was opposed to this plan, though Obama
eventually OKed. At any rate, the plan is moot now that the Syrians
and Russians have taken advantage of the disastrous ceasefire to
prepare for the massive bombing of Aleppo now taking place.

There are various conspiracy theories floating around about why
Kerry's audio was leaked at this time. The most obvious one is that
with the administration's Syria policy apparently headed for total
disaster, Kerry leaked the audio to protect his own legacy at the
expense of Obama's. Kerry may even still hope that the loons in
Sweden will give him the Nobel Peace Prize when they announce it
October 7. NY Times and VOA and
NY Times (14-Sept)

Related Articles

• US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes (27-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble (24-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
  
  
• France says there's 'no doubt' that Syria regime used sarin gas (05-Jun-2013)
  

****
**** Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria
****

The situation in Syria is proving to be both a geopolitical and
humanitarian disaster of catastrophic proportions, but also a major
embarrassment to President Obama, who is blamed by many people for
unnecessarily allowing it to happen.

Now, in the last few months of the Obama administration, there are
fears either that Obama might takes some military steps to salvage his
own legacy in Syria, or that the administration that takes office in
January will initiate some military action of its own.

There seems to be little doubt that the US military could overwhelm
Russia's military in Syria, if the will were there to do it. However,
Russia is warning that any US military campaign to oust the Syrian
government of Bashar al-Assad would have disastrous consequences for
the region.

According to Maria Zakharova, spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the US launches a direct aggression against
> Damascus and the Syrian Army, it would cause a terrible, tectonic
> shift not only in the country, but in the entire region.
>
> [With no government in Damascus, there will be a power vacuum in
> Syria, which] so-called moderates, who are, in reality, not
> moderate at all but just terrorists of all flavors, would fill;
> and there will be no dealing with them,
>
> And later it would be aggravated the way it happened in Iraq. We
> know that [Saddam Hussein’s] Iraqi Army became the basis of the
> Islamic State. Everything that both the [US-led] coalition and
> Russia are fighting now stems from it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

What I found most interesting about this statement is that it doesn't
suggest in any way that US military action would be resisted by
Russia, only that it would have tragic consequences.

The problem is that the US administration really has no way to proceed
at this point. Having refused to use military force in the past, when
stopping al-Assad might have been as simple as destroying his
warplanes and bombing his runways, they've been living in a fantasy
world that if they're nice to the Russians then the Russians will do
as they ask. The current massive destruction of Aleppo shows not only
that the administration was wrong, but also that they were made fools
of.

And having been made fools of, the fear is now that the US, in either
this administration or the next, will use military action in Syria far
beyond what the US has done before.

The following is a personal observation. Russia declared several
months ago that it had met its objectives in Syria, and that it was
withdrawing. After only a few weeks, it was clear that al-Assad's
army would collapse without Russian support, and so Russia had to
reverse its decision to withdraw. The observation is that the
overwhelming assault on east Aleppo almost seems to be an act of
desperation, hoping that a quick victory in Aleppo will be a complete
defeat for the opposition and end the war.

There are two errors in this reasoning. First, because of the large
size of east Aleppo, with a population over 200,000, it's very
unlikely that a quick victory is possible, and it's possible that any
real victory is impossible.

The second error is the belief that if a victory occurs, it will end
the war. As I've written several times in the past,
the war in Syria is a generational Awakening era
war. The rules are different for these wars than for Crisis era wars.
If a generational crisis war occurs, then it will end in some kind of
explosive climax, usually a massive genocide, that will shock everyone
so much that the war really will end. This is what happened in World
War II, for example, after the fall of Berlin and the nuking of
Japanese cities.

But in an Awakening era war, even genocidal actions do not end the war
more than temporarily. This is obviously true in Syria, which is now
split into regions controlled, by Turkey, the Kurds, ISIS, and the
"moderate" rebels, leaving only "Alawite-istan," a small region in
western Syria, still controlled by al-Assad.

So if the observation is correct that the chaotic destruction of east
Aleppo is an act of desperation by Syria and Russia, then we may see
the Syria war end in a way that Russia does not like. Russia Today and VOA

Related Articles

• As ISIS loses territory, it turns increasingly to terrorism (28-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse (04-Sep-2016)
  
  
• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Russia,
John Kerry, Ash Carter, Maria Zakharova, Alawite-istan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Oct-16 World View -- India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Relations between India and Pakistan continue to deteriorate
  
• India boycotts regional SAARC meeting in order to isolate Pakistan
  
• Terrorists attack another Indian army base in Kashmir
  
• India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights
  

****
**** Relations between India and Pakistan continue to deteriorate
****


Indus River Valley (Reuters)

It's becoming increasingly clear that something serious has changed in
relations between Pakistan and India, as a result of repeated acts of
violence in the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir. It's clear that
each country, in a generational Crisis era, is on a trend line to
become increasing nationalistic and belligerent towards the other, and
it's also clear that these trend lines will continue on the same path
until they result in war. From the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, it's not a question of "if", but of "when," and with the
rapid rise in nationalism on both sides, "when" may not be too far
off.

Although relations between the two country leaders, India's president
Nawaz Sharif and India's prime minister Narendra Modi, has never been
warm, at least there were attempts to appear cordial. As recently as
December of last year, Modi attended the wedding of Sharif's
granddaughter in Lahore.

Then on January 2 there was a terrorist attack on an Indian air force
base in Panthankot, Punjab. India investigated the terrorist attack
and blamed Pakistan. Pakistan investigated the attack and said that
India has staged the encounter to defame Pakistan. The India-Pakistan
"peace dialog" was suspended indefinitely.

Tensions have really soared since July 8, when Burhan Wani, the leader
of a separatist group in Kashmir was killed by Indian police fire.
Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day. Indian police responded
with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters wounded or killed or
blinded by the pellets. In a speech at the United Nations two weeks
ago, Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif incited further violence
in Kashmir by glorifying Burhan Wani and demanding independence for
Indian-controlled Kashmir. India has accused Pakistan of actively
supporting the riots.

As I've written several times in the past, it doesn't matter whether
Pakistan is actively supporting the riots because, from the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the violence is "organic" or
"indigenous," meaning that it comes from the people rather than from
the politicians. India and Pakistan are returning to the massive
violence of their last two generational crisis wars, India's 1857
Rebellion against Britain and the 1947 Partition war between Hindus
and Muslims that following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent
into India and Pakistan.

On September 18, terrorists made a major attack on an Indian army base
in Uri in Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17
soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst
militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.

Last week, India invaded Pakistani soil in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir,
with what Indian officials
called a "surgical strike" on militants. This has infuriated the
Pakistani population, and some kind of retaliation is expected.
Pakistan Today and Outlook India and Indian Panorama

Related Articles

• New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation (19-Sep-2016)
  
  
• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
  
  
• After 50 days of violence, unrest in India-controlled Kashmir is unabated (27-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** India boycotts regional SAARC meeting in order to isolate Pakistan
****

At this point, both the Pakistani and Indian people are furious, and
nationalist feelings are soaring on both sides. Because Indian
officials are becoming increasingly aware that any military action
might trigger a war between the two nuclear powers, Indian officials
are looking for ways to strike at what it calls "the terrorist state"
diplomatically.

Shortly after the terrorist attack on the Indian army base in Uri, but
before India's "surgical strike" in retaliation, Indian officials made
a decision to isolate Pakistan diplomatically.

Pakistan is scheduled on November 9-10 to host the 19th summit of
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in Pakistan's
capital city Islamabad.

Indian officials decided to boycott the SAARC. Furthermore, India
called the embassies of SAARC countries and demanded that they join
the boycott. All the SAARC countries -- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri
Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, and Nepal -- except Pakistan joined the
boycott, forcing Pakistan to indefinitely postpone the meeting. The
statements issued by these nations indicated how shocked they were by
the Uri attack, and said that the time was "not conducive" to a summit
meeting.

SAARC was founded in 1985 for development and advancement of the
geopolitical region of South Asia, but has been largely ineffective,
possibly because this region of the world holds 1/5th of the world
population, but has 2/5th of the world’s poor, Indian Express and India.com and The Nation (Pakistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan)

****
**** Terrorists attack another Indian army base in Kashmir
****

As of this writing on Sunday evening ET, a gun battle is continuing in
the Kashmir Valley town of Baramulla where terrorists attacked an Army
camp. This was four days after India had carried out "surgical
strikes" against terrorist targets in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, and
two weeks after a major attack on an Indian army base in Uri in
Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers. Indian Express

****
**** India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights
****

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed by India and Pakistan in 1960,
and has been considered one of the most diplomatic achievements in
history, a model agreement for sharing water resources between two
countries. There are several rivers flowing through the vast Indus
River Basin, generally from India to Pakistan, and the agreement
controls how much water can be used by each country.

The IWT has survived three wars between Pakistan and India, but now
India's prime minister Narendra Modi is threatening to revoke the
treaty, and cut off some of the water flowing from India to Pakistan.

If India cut off the flow of water to Pakistan, it would be a disaster
for Pakistan. Ironically, it could also be a disaster for India,
because the blocked water would flood the Indus Valley.

According to a Pakistan official, any Indian step for disrupting water
flow would carry considerable risk of war and hostilities. "If India
tries to violate the treaty, there will be a befitting reaction from
Pakistan." The Hindu and The News (Pakistan) and India Times and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Foreign Policy

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Narendra Modi, Nawaz Sharif,
Kashmir, Burhan Wani, 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition war,
Panthankot, Uri, Baramulla,
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, SAARC,
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal,
Indus Water Treaty, IWT, Indus River Valley

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

(10-02-2016, 09:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The IWT has survived three wars between Pakistan and India, but now
India's prime minister Narendra Modi is threatening to revoke the
treaty, and cut off some of the water flowing from Pakistan to India.

Surely you meant, "and cut off some of the water flowing from India to Pakistan", no?

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-03-2016, 03:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(10-02-2016, 09:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The IWT has survived three wars between Pakistan and India, but now
India's prime minister Narendra Modi is threatening to revoke the
treaty, and cut off some of the water flowing from Pakistan to India.

Surely you meant, "and cut off some of the water flowing from India to Pakistan", no?

Thanks for the correction.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Oct-16 World View -- US cuts off talks with Russia, signaling turning point in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• United States ends diplomatic talks with Russia over Syria
  
• Russia accuses US of sabotaging ceasefire and 'allying with terror'
  

****
**** United States ends diplomatic talks with Russia over Syria
****


Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry on Sept 22 (EPA)

Monday's announcement by the U.S. State Department that it would end
diplomatic talks with Russia over Syria is a watershed in the war in
Syria because it ends a period of self-delusion by the Obama
administration, while it signals the continuation of even worse
self-delusion in Damascus Syria and Moscow Russia.

The State Dept. issued the following statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The United States is suspending its participation in
> bilateral channels with Russia that were established to sustain
> the Cessation of Hostilities. This is not a decision that was
> taken lightly. The United States spared no effort in negotiating
> and attempting to implement an arrangement with Russia aimed at
> reducing violence, providing unhindered humanitarian access, and
> degrading terrorist organizations operating in Syria, including
> Daesh and al Qaeda in Syria.
>
> Unfortunately, Russia failed to live up to its own commitments -
> including its obligations under international humanitarian law and
> UNSCR 2254 - and was also either unwilling or unable to ensure
> Syrian regime adherence to the arrangements to which Moscow
> agreed. Rather, Russia and the Syrian regime have chosen to pursue
> a military course, inconsistent with the Cessation of Hostilities,
> as demonstrated by their intensified attacks against civilian
> areas, targeting of critical infrastructure such as hospitals, and
> preventing humanitarian aid from reaching civilians in need,
> including through the September 19 attack on a humanitarian aid
> convoy."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The self-delusion in the Obama administration that is apparently now
ending is the belief that by making one concession after another
to the Russians, then the Russians would be reasonable.

After years promising to help end the violence in Syria, Russian and
Syrian warplanes have been indiscriminately attacking civilian
neighborhoods and hospitals with barrel bombs, chemical weapons
(chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs, it's
not rocket science to see that Russia and Syria have no
intention of ending the violence.

The last straw for the Americans was the recent intentional attack by
Syrian or Russian warplanes of a humanitarian aid convoy traveling to
Aleppo, during a so-called "ceasefire." It was perfectly obvious
that the Bashar al-Assad regime was never going to allow that
humanitarian aid reach the victims of his bombings.

And yet, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia's Defense
Minister Sergei Lavrov played the game where Kerry would concede
something, Lavrov would promise to be better, and then Russia would do
the opposite of its commitments. Russia has consistently made fools
of the Obama administration, so I have to conclude that even President
Obama has some tolerance limits. Whatever policy in Syria President
Obama can claim to have had is now widely believed to be a failure,
especially after last week's leaked audio tape,
in which John Kerry implicitly blamed President
Obama for the failed policy in Syria.

So now it's a new day in Syria. The scales have been lifted from the
eyes of US Administration officials. Analysts are going to say that
this announcement gives total freedom to the Russians to continue
their extermination of Syrian Sunnis. That's true, but they're been
exercising total freedom all along. This announcement just makes it
more apparent, and perhaps more dangerous. US State Dept
and BBC and Washington Post

Related Articles

• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria (02-Oct-2016)
  
  
• US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes (27-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Russia accuses US of sabotaging ceasefire and 'allying with terror'
****

Russia responded to the State Dept. announcement by accusing the US of
sabotaging the Syria ceasefire, and of "[forging] an alliance with
hardened terrorists" in order oust Bashar al-Assad.

According to a Foreign Ministry statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[The US] has never exerted any real pressure on
> Jabhat Al-Nusra, done nothing for delineation to succeed and taken
> no action against its militants. ...
>
> We are becoming more convinced that in a pursuit of a much desired
> regime change in Damascus, Washington is ready to ‘make a deal
> with the devil’ [and to] forge an alliance with hardened
> terrorists, dreaming of turning back the course of
> history."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added: "Why
could Washington not deliver what it promised – to delineate between
the terrorists [the Al-Nusra Front] and the so-called moderate
opposition?"

I've listened to several Russian officials, including
Sergei Lavrov and spokesman Dmitry Peskov, make this same demand,
and I can't even figure out what it means.

There are over 200,000 people in east Aleppo, and probably a few
thousand, or maybe even 10-20,000, of them are members of Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) which recently renamed itself Jabhat Fateh
al-Sham (JFS) when it cut its ties to al-Qaeda.

So apparently the Russians are demanding that American troops
go into Aleppo and figure out who belongs to al-Nusra and who
doesn't, and then separate out the al-Nusra people and move
them into a separate place so that the Syrian and Russian warplanes
can kill them. In other words, it's just more bizarre garbage
coming out of the mouths of Russian officials.

Bashar al-Assad's Shia/Alawite clan are historic enemies of the Sunni
Muslims dating back centuries, and it's been clear for years that
al-Assad has a highly emotional and highly self-delusional desire
to exterminate the Sunni Muslims.

The intention of the Russians is clear from new reports that Russia is
moving large squadrons of Sukhoi Su-24 and Su-34 fighter jets to the
Humaymim Military Airfields in Syria. Russia claims that their
purpose is to conduct air strikes against the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Possibly even more ominous are reports that Russia is also deploying
advanced SA-23 anti-missile systems to Syria. Since neither al-Nusra
nor ISIS has an air force, we must presume that Russia is preparing
for a possible military conflict

with the United States. Russia Today and Russia Today and Almasdar News (Syria) and Fox News

Related Articles

• Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble (24-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
  
  
• France says there's 'no doubt' that Syria regime used sarin gas (05-Jun-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Bashar al-Assad, John Kerry,
Sergei Lavrov, Maria Zakharova, Dmitry Peskov,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Sukhoi Su-24, Su-34, SA-23, Humaymim Military Airfields

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Oct-16 World View -- Mongolia in economic crisis asks the IMF for a bailout

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mongolia in economic crisis asks the IMF for a bailout
  
• Mongolia signs new mining deal with Rio Tinto for future growth
  

****
**** Mongolia in economic crisis asks the IMF for a bailout
****


Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi open-pit copper mine in South Gobi desert

Mongolia is another story of wild spending when the times are good,
resulting in huge debts when times are bad.

In 2011, Mongolia borrowed billions of dollars to invest in huge road
and infrastructure projects. Now the country owes some $2 billion in
public and private debt repayments in 2017 and early 2018, and is
seeking a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. The country's
tugrik currency has been falling sharply - more than 10% this year,
causing the central bank to raise interest rates by 4.5% to 15%.
(America's current Federal funds rate is between 0.25% and 0.5%. The
eurozone, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and Japan, have negative
interest rates in some cases.)

The reason that Mongolia's economy appeared invincible in 2011 is
because the country has huge reserves of copper, coal and gold. So
far this year, the country has grown by 1.4%, down from 3% last year.
But in 2011, the economy grew by an astronomical 17.5%, mainly thanks
to foreign investments.

Mongolia's economy has suffered for two reasons. First, China has
been Mongolia's major market for its copper, coal and gold, but
China's economy has been slowing down, and so China has been importing
less of these products than previously.

The second reason is the fall in commodity prices. The sharp plunge
in the last two years of the price of oil has harmed in economies in
countries including Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Other
commodities have fallen as well. In 2011, the price of copper was
about $4.50 per pound; today it's around $2 per pound.

In August, the finance minister said the economy is in crisis and the
government pitched a series of austerity measures and taxes that were
later overturned by parliament. The government is now drafting an
“Economic Stabilization Plan” which it hopes will restore its economy
to stability. However, Generational Dynamics has been predicting for
years that the existing global deflationary spiral would continue, and
Mongolia will continue to be a part of that. Bloomberg and IntelliNews and CNN (23-Aug)

****
**** Mongolia signs new mining deal with Rio Tinto for future growth
****

Mongolia hopes to recover from its economic growth by taking advantage
of its rich natural resources. In May of this year, Mongolia signed a
contract with Australian mining giant Rio Tinto to invest $5.3 billion
in the development of the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper and gold mine.

There's an existing Oyu Tolgoi open pit mine, which has been producing
copper since 2013. The underground mine is expected to produce a
considerably higher grade of copper.

The mine will work 365 days a year, with two 12-hour shifts. At the
peak of construction, the underground workforce is expected to be more
than 3,000 people, 95% of them Mongolian workers. First production
from the underground mine is expected in 2020, with the mine producing
at full capacity by around 2030.

However, 2030 is a long way off, and Mongolia has to make debt
repayments now. Mining.com and Reuters and Rio Tinto

Related Articles

• China's yuan devaluation causes currency chaos in Asia (20-Aug-2015)
  
  
• Mongolia's natural resource riches lost to corruption and foreigners (08-Aug-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mongolia, Oyu Tolgo, copper, gold, coal

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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Oct-16 World View -- Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria
  
• Concerns about possible US-Russia military conflict continue to grow
  

****
**** Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria
****


Russian S-300 air defense missile system (AP)

Russia announced in April that it had met its objectives in Syria, and
its military was withdrawing. Then, as the army of the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad began collapsing again, Russia
changed its mind. Russia's increasing military buildup in Syria
indicates that it has no intention of withdrawing, and may even be
treating Syria as a part or a protectorate of the Russian federation.

Russia's military on Tuesday announced that a battery of the S-300 air
defense missile systems had been sent to Syria. This follows
installation of a long-range S-400 missile defense system, and an
array of other surface-to-air missiles. These have raised concerns
among analysts, to which Russia's Defense Ministry responded: "I
remind you that the S-300 is a purely defensive system and poses no
threat to anyone. It’s not clear why the placement of S-300 in Syria
has caused such a stir among our western colleagues."

No jihadist group has an air force, so the deployment of advanced air
defense missile systems must be directed at someone else. There are
several possibilities:

• Russia is about to conduct some new military action in Syria,
  and does not wish to risk an American military response.
  
• Syria is becoming essentially a part of the Russian federation,
  and Russia is turning it into a permanent military base.
  
• Russia is preparing for war with its historic enemy,
  Turkey.

Military Times and AFP

Related Articles

• Russia declared 'Mission complete' in Syria and withdrew, but the war rages on (05-Apr-2016)
  
  
• US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes (27-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Concerns about possible US-Russia military conflict continue to grow
****

Many analysts are concerned that Russia's military buildup in Syria
means that Russia and the United States are headed for a military
conflict when the next American administration takes office in
January. I wrote about these concerns
several days ago.

However, long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts
that Russia, Iran and India will be allies of the West in the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war against China, Pakistan,
Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Muslim countries.

Europe's last three generational crisis war all involved an invasion
of Russia, but they were crisis wars for Europe, but non-crisis wars
for Russia:

• The War of the Spanish Succession (1701-14) was a generational
  crisis war for Europe and for Sweden in the Great Northern War with
  Russia (1700-20), but it was a non-crisis war for Russia.
  
• The Napoleonic Wars (1800-1814) were a crisis war for France,
  which invaded Russia, but it was a non-crisis war for Russia.
  
• World War II (1939-45) was a generational crisis war for Europe,
  and for Germany, which invaded Russia, but it was a non-crisis war for
  Russia.

These were brutal wars for Russia, but a component of the war was that
invading armies were defeated by the brutal Russian winter.

Russia's generational crisis wars were not fought with Europe. They
were either internal rebellions, or they were fought with Turks and
Mongols. Of particular importance were the Tatars, a tribe of Mongols
that, under the leadership of Genghis Kahn, probably the greatest
conqueror in the history of the world, they had defeated China in
1215, and then turned westward and conquered much of southern Russia
by 1227. The Tatars in the Crimean Peninsula had intermingled with
the central Asian Turks, and spoke a Turkic language. By the 1400s,
they adopted Islam as their religion. It was in 1571 that the Crimean
Tatars attacked and sacked Moscow, then ruled by Ivan the Terrible.

Russia under Catherine the Great fought a generational crisis war with
the Ottoman Empire from 1762-83. Russia fought the Ottomans again
under Tsar Nicholas I in the Crimean War in 1853-55. World War I was
a generational crisis war for both Russia and Turkey, and it saw the
destruction of both Tsarist Russia (Bolshevik Revolution) and Ottoman
Turkey.

So Russia's great historical generational crisis wars have been not
with the West, but with the Ottoman Turks, the Mongols, and the
Crimean Tatars. And that's the way it's going to be in the next war
as well.

Related Articles

• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Concerns growing of a military showdown between US and Russia in Syria (02-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia (08-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, S-300, S-400,
Clash of Civilizations, Turkey, China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,
War of the Spanish Succession, Sweden, Great Northern War,
Napoleonic Wars, France, World War II, Germany,
Crimea, Tatars, Mongols, Turks, Genghis Khan, Catherine the Great,
Ivan the Terrible, Ottoman Empire, World War I, Bolshevik Revolution

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

I find it hard to believe that WWII would not have caused a Generational Dynamics "reset" in Russia, entraining them into the west's cycle.

I also question the idea that crisis wars tend to be fought with the same enemies each time. The U.S. crisis wars were each fought with a different set of enemies, all disjoint. Enemies sometimes seem to carry over between adjacent crisis wars and noncrisis wars - the American Revolution and the War of 1812, WWI and WWII - but they don't seem to carry over between crisis wars. If anything, that would suggest that the U.S. and Russia are more likely to be on opposite sides, since they were on opposite sides in the Cold War.

I don't discount that there might be a Russia vs. Turkey confrontation coming up, but I think that would be more likely to put the U.S. on the side of Turkey than Russia.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Oct-16 World View -- UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UN envoy Staffan de mistura asks al-Nusra fighters to leave Aleppo
  
• Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas
  

****
**** UN envoy Staffan de mistura asks al-Nusra fighters to leave Aleppo
****


Staffan de Mistura (Reuters)

Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations envoy for Syria, gave a
passionate speech on Thursday, where practically begged both sides to
stop the genocide going on in east Aleppo in Syria.

De Mistura's point was that there are over 275,000 people in ease
Aleppo, but only about a thousand of them are members of Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) which recently renamed itself Jabhat Fateh
al-Sham (JFS) when it cut its ties to al-Qaeda.

De Mistura begged the al-Nusra fighters to leave the city, rather than
to allow the destruction of Aleppo and the deaths of many of the
275,000 residents. Addressing himself directly to the al-Nusra
fighters, de Mistura said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Can you please look at my eyes, and those of the
> Aleppo people. Of the 275,000 civilians that are there where you
> are, and confidently those 275,000 people that you're going to
> stay there, and that you remain there and keep hostage of your
> refusal to leave the city, because 1,000 of you are deciding on
> the destiny of 275,000 civilians. I would like you to reply to
> this question -- not to me, but to those 275,000 people -- and if
> you did decide to leave, in dignity, and with your weapons, to
> Idlib or anywhere you wanted to go, I personally am ready
> physically to accompany you."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's a very dramatic offer, but the probability that it will be taken
up is pretty close to zero. Even if 1,000 fighters left the city,
Syria and Russia would claim that there were still more "terrorists."
In the event that de Mistura played the part of a Pied Piper leading
fighters out of Aleppo, it's even possible that Russian and Syrian
warplanes would target him and kill him, and then say that it was Nato
warplanes that killed him. Reuters and Asharq Al-Awsat

Related Articles

• US cuts off talks with Russia, signaling turning point in Syria (04-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (29-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas
****

Russia and Syria have repeatedly been accused of war crimes and
genocide in recent days by United Nations officials, in reaction
Russian and Syrian warplanes indiscriminately attacking civilian
neighborhoods and hospitals with barrel bombs, chemical weapons
(chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs,

UN envoy Staffan de Mistura renewed those accusations on Thursday
by comparing the actions of Syria and Russia to the genocides at
Srebrenica and Rwanda.

He said that, unless there's a "game changer," the city of Aleppo will
by "totally destroyed" by Russia and Syria within 2 to 2 1/2 months,
presumably killing most of the 275,000 residents, who are "civilians,
not terrorists."

De Mistura said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"There is only one thing that we are not ready to do -
> be passive, resignate ourselves to another Srebrenica, another
> Rwanda, which we are capable sadly today to recognize - written on
> that wall in front of us - unless something takes place.
>
> That doesn't mean that we will not -- and we will -- put this into
> context of a political process, because it's clear anything we do
> is not only about Aleppo is going to be also part of a political
> process that we will relaunch, we need to relaunch, we need a
> political horizon, based on what happens in the Security Council.
>
> Unless there is any major game changer that may change the
> equation, this cruel, constant use of military activities,
> bombing, fighting destruction in eastern Aleppo will continue.
> Let's be honest, there is nothing that tells us that it will not
> continue. ...
>
> The bottom line is - in maximum 2 months, 2 1/2 months the city of
> eastern Aleppo at this rate may be totally destroyed. We're
> talking about old city in particular. And thousands of Syrians -
> civilians, not terrorists -- will be killed. And many of the
> wounded. And thousands and thousands of them may try to become
> refugees in order to escape from there.
>
> This is what you, we, the world will be seeing when we will be
> trying to celebrate Christmas, or the end of the year, if this
> continues at this rate, unimpeded. Homs [Syrian city] multiplied
> by 50."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's been very clear for a long time that the depraved psychopath
Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria, would very much like to see
275,000 residents of Aleppo killed, even though only all but a few
thousand are innocent civilians. Syrian and Russian warplanes have
been bombing hospitals, schools and civilian neighborhoods even in
cities where al-Nusra was never present.

So de Mistura's passionate plea has no possibility whatsoever of
making a difference.

At Friday's emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Russia will
undoubtedly say that there more than just a few thousand of the
275,000 residents are "terrorists." Russia may even claim that almost
of the 275,000 residents are "terrorists." AFP and BBC

• Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria (06-Oct-2016)
  
  
• US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes (27-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Staffan de Mistura, Russia, Aleppo,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Oct-16 World View -- Reader comments and questions on Syria, Russia, and Russian trolls

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russian Trolls
  
• Popularity of Bashar al-Assad
  
• Russian shootdown of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17
  
• The future of the Mideast
  

****
**** Russian Trolls
****


Russian trolls - Bruce Plante (Tulsa World, 11-Jun-2015)

There have been a number of questions and comments about my
recent articles on Russia's involvement in Syria.

> [indent]<QUOTE>TheLastPlainsman: "It appears, Mr. Xenakis, that you
> are still the target of Soviet, err, I mean, Russian, trolls. At
> least there aren't any China ones. Today, anyway."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Yes, Russia has hired hundreds of trolls to harass people like me.
At one point last year, I was being attacked and harassed by three
Russian trolls at the same time.

In a sense, the whole policy has backfired. Every journalist by now
has become aware that they'll be attacked by Russian trolls if they
write anything critical of Russia. So the result is that any person
who actually believes what he's saying in defense of Bashar al-Assad
or Vladimir Putin is automatically assumed to be a paid Russian troll.
The Russians brought this on themselves.

> [indent]<QUOTE>Mickey Wasp: "It is clear from this completely
> fraudulent article he has penned that Mr. X is not above composing
> lies in order to further the nefarious agenda of the Zionist
> criminal enterprise known as Israel and Warmongers of Congress and
> the CIA.
>
> Anyone who can write a line such as "After years promising to help
> end the violence in Syria, Russian and Syrian warplanes have been
> indiscriminately attacking civilian neighborhoods and hospitals
> with barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous
> bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs. It does not take rocket
> science to see that Russia and Syria have no intention of ending
> the violence." is not fit to call themselves a journalist or
> researcher or columnist, instead they should be labelled as a
> disgusting black propagandist and seen as working for those who
> created the conflict in Syria."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

All of these things that I listed -- attacking civilian neighborhoods
and hospitals with barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas),
phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs -- have been widely
reported in mainstream media and by government organizations in
America, Europe, the Mideast and the United Nations. The only people
saying that it's all made up are Russian and Syrian officials, as well
as the army of paid Russian trolls.

Related Articles

• BBC reporters attacked by Russian thugs after finding evidence of new Ukraine invasion (19-Sep-2014)
  
  
• Russia threatens to invade Ukraine from East and West (15-Aug-2014)
  

****
**** Popularity of Bashar al-Assad
****

> [indent]<QUOTE>Scotster brightmoth: "Amid the demonization of the
> Syrian government and leadership and the skillful use of social
> media by anti-government activists. Influenced by both mainstream
> and this alternative media, most people in the West do not know
> that Bashar al-Assad remains popular with many Syrians. Nor do
> they realize that Assad won an election two years
> ago."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

What the heck does that have to do with anything? Bashar al-Assad is
being charged with genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.
What does it matter whether he won an election? Adolf Hitler won
elections. Mao Zedong, Pol Pot and Josef Stalin were all very
popular.

There's a very important point here. It's the popularity of genocidal
leaders that makes the genocidal acts possible. An unpopular leader
could never get away with trying to exterminate an entire religious or
ethnic group, as Bashar al-Assad is trying to exterminate the Sunni
Muslims. A genocidal leader has to be popular to get away with his
depraved acts. So when you talk about al-Assad's popularity, my
response is that of course he's popular, and has to be to get away
with committing genocide.

Related Articles

• UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
  
  
• US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes (27-Sep-2016)
  
  
• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Russian shootdown of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17
****

> [indent]<QUOTE>Mickey Wasp: "We are experiencing the same
> demonization of Syria’s al-Assad and Russia’s Putin that we
> witnessed before those other two wars on Saddam and Gaddafi. Every
> possible allegation is made against them, often based on dubious
> and deceitful “evidence,” but it goes unchallenged because to
> question the propaganda opens a person to charges of being an
> “apologist” or “stooge” or if they post on Xenakis articles, a
> Russia troll."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

If it quacks like a duck, then it must be a duck. You claim that
you're a Texas redneck, but you quack like a Russian troll.

There was a good example this last week of how Russian trolls work. A
Dutch-led team announced the findings of a major investigation proving
that Russians in eastern Ukraine in July 2014 shot down Malaysia
Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile
that was transported by a Volvo truck from Russia, and then
transported back to Russia after it had been used to shoot down the
plane.

There are literally thousands of pieces of evidence, including
intercepted phone calls, photos, analyzed and authenticated, videos,
forensic examinations, witness statements, satellite images, and radar
data. The amount of evidence is overwhelming.

But the Russian trolls have been out in force saying that all the
photos are photoshopped, and all the evidence was faked. And the
Washington Post reports that numerous reporters have been targeted by
Russian government hackers. I've been targeted many times by both
Russian and Chinese hackers. That's the game these Russian trolls
play.

So when this Russian troll says that "every possible allegation is
made against [al-Assad and Putin], often based on dubious and
deceitful 'evidence,'" he's just being a good troll and saying the
same things over and over despite overwhelming evidence. He should
get an extra pay bonus from his trollmaster for being such a good
troll.

Here's another point worth making. I believe the truth of everything
that I write. I've written about 4,000 articles on my web site since
2003, and every word is based on extensive research and reporting. I
have an archive of some 85,000 articles that I've copied and pasted,
and I add a dozen or so articles to the archive every day. I have to
be sure of every fact, because if I make a mistake, then I know that
people will pound on me for it.

But that's not true of the Russian trolls. They know very well that
Russians shot down the MH17 plane. They know very well that Bashar
al-Assad is committing genocide. They know very well that Vladimir
Putin is guilty of war crimes. But they're paid to lie, and they sell
their souls every day to defend the greatest genocidal monsters of the
21st century so far.

Guardian (London) and Washington Post

Related Articles

• Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Australia's PM Tony Abbott promises to 'shirt-front' Vladimir Putin when they meet (14-Oct-2014)
  

****
**** The future of the Mideast
****

> [indent]<QUOTE>Jasmine16: "President Assad wants to kill all Sunni
> Muslims? Come on. His wife is a Sunni. Many of his ministers and
> military officers are Sunnis. Many of his armed force officers are
> Sunnis. The majority of Syrian population prefer to live in
> government controlled areas. Even CIA and Qatar study reveal that
> 70% of Syrians-most of whom are (moderate) Sunnis, support him,
> while 20% are neutral, and only 10 % are against him. How on earth
> could the writer claims that the president wants " ... to massacre
> ... all Sunni Muslim civilians ...."?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There is an extremely bloody historic fault line between Shia/
Alawites (like Bashar al-Assad) and Sunnis. It's pretty clear that
al-Assad wants to kill a large segment of Syria's civilian population,
possibly millions of people, on the other side of that historic fault
line, but there's a problem of how to characterize those people --
what name should we give that group? Al-Assad just calls them all
"terrorists," but obviously children in a school or women and children
in a marketplace slaughtered by an al-Assad airstrike are not
"terrorists" in any meaningful sense. So in view of the historic
hatred between Alawites and Sunnis, I use the characterization "Sunni
Muslims" as the most convenient way to describe the portion of the
population that al-Assad wants to exterminate. It's possible that
there's some kind of ethnic descriptor that could be used to make the
characterization more precise, but I'm not aware of one.

> [indent]<QUOTE>TheLastConservative: "'In other words, it’s just more
> bizarre garbage coming out of the mouths of Russian officials.'
> Which is a lot like #*&$ coming out of the State Department isn't
> it? There are no good guys in this situation. We are obviously
> too incompetent and should get out of it. We've messed up enough
> as it is."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

A lot of people feel that way. But a lot more people feel that
America has a moral obligation to be policeman of the world, so it's
unlikely that we'll get out of the situation.

> [indent]<QUOTE>TheLastPlainsman: "So now that confuses me- what is
> your prediction then with a US/Russia conflict but then us still
> being allied in the next world war? Is there any kind of timeline
> to consider?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Russia's historic enemies are the Turks, the Mongols, and particularly
the Crimean Tatars. Russia has absolutely no reason to start a war
with the West, as many people fear.

As I've been writing for many years, from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, Russia will be our ally in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war. Those who think that this is impossible
should recall that the Soviet Union was our bitter enemy before and
after World War II, but was our ally during World War II. Something
like that will happen again. This prediction should make the Russian
trolls very happy.

Related Articles

• Russia continues large air defense military buildup in Syria (06-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia (08-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Arab views of Iran nuclear deal (15-Jul-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, trolls, Syria,
Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin

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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Oct-16 World View -- New Anti-India violence erupts in Kashmir after police kill 12-year-old boy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• New Anti-India violence erupts in Kashmir after police kill 12-year-old boy
  
• Indian media increasingly accepts the 'indigenous' nature of the Kashmir protests
  

****
**** New Anti-India violence erupts in Kashmir after police kill 12-year-old boy
****


Kashmiri Muslim women shout anti-India slogans in Srinagar on Saturday (EPA)

Junaid Ahmad Akhoon, a 12-year-old boy, died early on Saturday after
being "sprayed with pellets" by police pellet guns on Friday during
anti-India protests. About 50 more people were injured during the
Friday protests. Police said the boy was injured during clashes
between protesters and security forces, but the local residents
alleged that the boy was not involved in any protest.

The killing triggered new violent clashes on Saturday between
thousands of protesters in Srinagar, the provincial capital city of
Kashmir, and Indian troops, who fired warning shots and used tear gas
and pellet guns. Intermittent clashes spread to different
regions in Kashmir throughout the day. Curfews were re-imposed
in several districts, after having been lifted for only
a few days.

It's now been 92 days of almost continuous protests and riots since
the July 8 killing by security forces of Burhan Wani, the leader of
the Hizbul Mujahideen separatist group in Kashmir. Over 90 people
have been killed and over 12,000 injured since the July 8 killing.
Stone-throwing crowds are met with security forces spraying the crowds
using pellet guns. Hundreds of people have been blinded by the
pellets. International Business Times and Daily Kashmir Images

Related Articles

• Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leaves thousands injured (14-Jul-2016)
  
  
• After 50 days of violence, unrest in India-controlled Kashmir is unabated (27-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** Indian media increasingly accepts the 'indigenous' nature of the Kashmir protests
****

According to official government figures, 446 people were arrested in
the last week. Close to 7000 people have been arrested in Jammu and
Kashmir since July 8, while more than 450 people have been booked under
the Public Safety Act (PSA), a 1978 law considered highly restrictive.
In addition, police sources say that 1500 others are under detention
without any charges, and their detention doesn’t reflect in the
official records.

Judging from Indian media, numbers like these are driving increased
acceptance of the view that the continuing protests and violence in
Kashmir are not being caused by Pakistan, but are "indigenous" and
"organic," meaning that it's coming from the people, rather than from
the politicians.

One Kashmir government spokesman, Nayeem Akhtar, compared the
situation today to protests that occurred in 2010, which were purely
political:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[We are finding] ourselves in an unprecedented
> situation. ...
>
> There is a difference, lot of difference between 2010 and
> 2016. Like the local leadership apparently is not in control, the
> leadership has gone to 10 and 12 year old boys. Those who lead are
> driven by the street. In 2010, they could assert and bring it
> back. What we did (in 2010) is the role of opposition. I wish
> National Conference does the same but they have
> disappeared."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

"National Conference" is a political party formed in 1947 with the
objective of achieving Kashmiri independence from India through
political means. Akhtar's point is that there is no longer political
control of the protests, which are now being led by teenagers who
weren't even around to protest in the past. It's this generational
change that's caused a political protest to become a violent
protest.

Parvez Imroz, a rights activist in Kashmir supporting the separatists,
also emphasizes a generational change:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The government doesn't really know what to do and how
> to control protests.
>
> The state has become more vehement, firing bullets and pellets on
> unarmed people. But, despite all this use of force, people are
> organizing these protests well, which was not the case in the
> early 1990s. It was more of an emotional outburst back then. And
> many young people who are now on the streets have not seen the
> fear and terror that was instilled by the government forces in
> early 1990s.
>
> Now that element of fear is gone. ...
>
> The use of force against protesters is likely to continue. But one
> thing is certain - this uprising has given [a] new dimension to
> the resistance in Kashmir.
>
> The young generation is really controlling things on the streets.
>
> In [the] 1990s, and even till early 2000, some people from here
> would go and openly talk to the Indian government on behalf of
> people, but that can't happen now because people here have
> realized nothing comes out of these talks.
>
> But it remains to be seen how young people leading the protests
> will organize themselves and lead the struggle in the times
> ahead."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is how the world
works. The 1947 Partition war between Muslims and Hindus was one of
the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, so horrific that the survivors
did everything they could to make sure that it never happens again.
And the survivors were successful, as long as they were alive.
But now they're pretty much all gone, and the young people rioting
in Kashmir have no personal connection to the horrors of
the Partition war, and they're ready, willing, anxious and able
to risk having it happen again.

As I described in a recent article,
India's last two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted India's Hindus against the British
colonialists, and the 1947 Partition war, which pitted Hindus and
Muslims against each other, following the partitioning of the Indian
subcontinent into India and Pakistan. As we described in that
article, the 1857 war led naturally to violence between Hindus and
Muslims decades later, and then to the 1947 war.

Now we're seeing that the 1947 war is leading, decades later, to new
violence between Hindus and Muslims. Generational Dynamics predicts
that we're seeing a kind of repeat of 1947, and that this increasing
violence will lead to a new generational crisis war between Hindus and
Muslims, and from there to full-scale war between Pakistan and India.
Indian Express and Kashmir Public Safety Act (1978) and Al-Jazeera (6-Sep)

Related Articles

• India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights (03-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Quetta Pakistan terror attack kills 75, while unrest grows in Kashmir (09-Aug-2016)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Srinagar, Junaid Ahmad Akhoon,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Public Safety Act, PSA,
Nayeem Akhtar, National Conference, Parvez Imroz

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Oct-16 World View -- Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency
  
• Oromo protests grow after hundreds killed during Irreecha (thanksgiving) festival
  
• Ethiopia's 'kebele' system imposes heavy government repression and control
  
• Manufacture of Ivanka Trump's shoes will move from China to Ethiopia
  

****
**** Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency
****


Irreecha festive on 2-October, prior to the deadly stampede (Reuters)

The declaration of a six-month state of emergency is a major
development, as Ethiopia hasn't declared a state of emergency for
decades. However, the government has been increasingly rattled by
growing anti-government protests, especially among the marginalized
Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of Ethiopia's population, and
among the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises another 27%.

The government is largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrays, who are a
market and government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the
population. They are extremely authoritarian and have succeeded in
marginalizing the other ethnic groups, and are said to have informants
in villages throughout the country.

According to Ethiopian officials:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Council of Ministers has declared a state of
> emergency that will be effective as of Sunday evening so as to
> deal with anti-peace elements that have allied with foreign forces
> and are jeopardizing the peace and security of the country. ...
>
> The state of emergency was declared following a thorough
> discussion by the Council of Ministers on the loss of lives and
> property damages occurring in the country.
>
> We put our citizens' safety first. Besides, we want to put an end
> to the damage that is being carried out against infrastructure
> projects, education institutions, health centers, administration
> and justice buildings.
>
> A state of emergency has been declared because the situation posed
> a threat against the people of the country.
>
> The emergency will not breach basic human rights enshrined under
> the Ethiopian constitution and won't also effect diplomatic rights
> listed under the Vienna Convention.
>
> The state of emergency will help restore peace and security
> shortly. It is also intended to smooth the progress of the efforts
> being made to resolve the problem peacefully."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Ethiopian government is extremely authoritarian, and has always
successfully met peaceful protests with arrests and violence. The
government has not yet announced details of what the state of
emergency will mean, but it's expected that the military will become
even more in control, and may become even more violent.
Fana Broadcasting (Ethiopia) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** Oromo protests grow after hundreds killed during Irreecha (thanksgiving) festival
****

The government considered the state of emergency to be necessary
following violence at a peaceful protest last week. Dozens to
hundreds of ethnic Oromo people were killed last Sunday (2-Oct) when
security officials used teargas and gunshots to disperse protesters at
the Oromos' annual Irreecha thanksgiving celebration in the town of
Bishoftu. These actions triggered a stampede among the tens of
thousands of people peacefully protesting against the government,
resulting in the deaths.

The Oromos are the largest ethnic group in east Africa, and make up
34% of Ethiopia's population, where they are split approximately
evenly between Christianity and Islam.

Most of them live in the Oromia region, which surrounds the capital
city Addis Ababa. Addis Ababa is a major metropolis, and it has been
growing and expanding. Last year, the government announced a plan to
expand Addis Ababa into Oromo farmland, which triggered large scale
protests. Massive protests in December 2015 caused the government to
back down on the plan, but the protests have continued, because of
deep poverty among the Oromos and what they see as marginalization.

In recent weeks, the protesters have become violent, and they attacked
businesses, putting at risk the government-portrayed image that
Ethiopia is the best place in Africa for business investments. This
has caused the government to appear desperate to restore stability, so
as not to scare away the foreign investors. AFP and BBC and IRIN News and African Arguments

****
**** Ethiopia's 'kebele' system imposes heavy government repression and control
****

The kebeles are the smallest unit of local government in Ethiopia, and
exist throughout the entire country, in both rural and urban
districts. When the USSR-dominated communist government, known as the
Derg dictatorship, was in charge prior to 1991, they were used by the
government to exert local control.

As I described recently in the Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea,
Ethiopia's last
generational crisis war occurred in 1991, when the Derg dictatorship
was overthrown. The new constitution promised human rights for
everyone. Theoretically, the kebeles were then to become a democrat
way of devolving central government power to the local authorities.

An election in May 2005 threatened the power of the government
dominant ethnic Tigrays, which are only 6% of the population. The
kebeles became a powerful instrument for retaining power, according to
Human Rights Watch in 2005:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"While originally intended to help implement the
> Derg’s ambitious rural development agenda and land reform program,
> the kebele system quickly evolved into a highly effective
> mechanism of control and repression. Kebele officials were
> expected to keep their communities under perpetual surveillance
> and to report any subversive activities to higher authorities.
> The kebeles were also used to disseminate government propaganda,
> implement government policies and maintain general order and
> discipline. When the EPRDF came to power it retained the kebele
> as the smallest unit of local government throughout Ethiopia and
> has continued to use the system to consolidate and extend the
> power of the ruling party.
>
> In Oromia’s rural areas, kebele officials wield a great deal of
> power over the populations they govern. Most of the region’s
> rural population consists of subsistence farmers who depend upon
> kebele officials to provide them with a range of essential
> services and agricultural inputs. Perhaps most significantly,
> kebele officials distribute fertilizer to farmers throughout
> Oromia on credit and are responsible for collecting those debts
> when they come due. Farmers must also obtain letters from kebele
> officials verifying their identity and place of residence when
> they wish to access government services outside of their
> communities. Such letters are usually required, for example, in
> order to visit a doctor or send one’s children to secondary school
> in town."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Ethiopia is now in a generational Awakening era, and as I've described
in Syria, Burundi, and other countries, these are times when
anti-government protests only grow, and if the government is
sufficiently paranoid, then these peaceful protests are met with
increasing violence by government security forces. These protests are
only going to increase, possibly sending Ethiopia into an increasing
spiral of government violence.

Addis Standard (Addis Ababa, 9-Jun-2016) and Human Rights Watch (2005)

Related Articles

• Heavy fighting along Eritrea-Ethiopia border raises fears of war (14-Jun-2016)
  
  
• In a new catastrophe, hundreds of migrants drown in the Mediterranean Sea (19-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Mali hotel terror attack highlights al-Qaeda's strength in Africa (21-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Burundi's Nkurunziza continues down Mugabe-Assad path of genocide (10-Dec-2015)
  

****
**** Manufacture of Ivanka Trump's shoes will move from China to Ethiopia
****


Ivanka Trump's shoes will be manufactured in Ethiopia

The Huajian Group, a major Chinese shoe manufacturer, and the
manufacturer of Ivanka Trump's shoes, is considering moving
part of its manufacturing business from China to Ethiopia,
to take advantage of workers who are paid lower wages.

This is not as fatuous a story as it appears to be. Donald Trump has
criticized the number of manufacturing jobs that have moved from
America to China, and the Chinese media are making a big deal of the
fact that Ivanka's shoes may no longer be manufactured in China.
Shanghaiist and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, kebele, Derg,
Oromos, Oromia, Amhara, Tigrays, Irreecha (thanksgiving),
Ivanka Trump, China, Huajian Group

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal
  
• Turkey-Russia TurkStream deal based on pragmatism rather than reconciliation
  

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal
****


Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday in Istanbul (Reuters)

Officials from Russia and Turkey signed an agreement on Monday for the
Turkish Stream pipeline project, to build pipelines supplying Russian
natural gas to Turkey and to western Europe. The agreement was signed
in Istanbul, Turkey, during the World Energy Congress, during a
ceremony attended by Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Also attending was Ilham Aliyev of
president of Azerbaijan, since Azerbaijan will be taking part in the
project.

The agreement is being viewed as the biggest sign so far that Turkey
and Russia are overcoming their differences after Turkey shot down a
Russian warplane in November 2015. Nonetheless, all the signs are
that this was a deal of pragmatism, rather than any real warming of
relations between the two leaders or the two countries.

Both countries have become internationally isolated because of
sanctions. The West imposed sanctions on Russia after Russia invaded
and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. Turkey became isolated when
Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey because of the shootdown.

The relationship between Russia and Turkey became extremely vitriolic,
but neither country did anything that might be called a "nuclear
option." The sanctions that Russia imposed on Turkey -- food
imports/exports, tourism restrictions, etc. -- hurt both economies,
but were not sufficiently serious to be significant.

For Turkey, the "nuclear option" would have been to close the Turkish
straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles channels), the waterways that
connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, to Russian ships that
wish to travel between the two bodies of water. That never happened.

Russia could have canceled natural gas shipments to Turkey through the
existing Blue Stream trans-Black Sea gas pipeline, but that never
happened either.

Further plans on the new TurkStream gas pipeline project were canceled
after the shootdown last year, as were plans for a Russian-built
nuclear plant in Turkey. But with Monday's agreement, those plans are
are all now being implemented. Sputnik News (Moscow) and VOA and Reuters

Related Articles

• Russia and Turkey increasingly on a war footing (04-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia (08-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Turkey-Russia TurkStream deal based on pragmatism rather than reconciliation
****

Both Turkey and Russia have had ailing economies recently. Signing
the TurkStream deal on Monday will mean major economic benefits to
both countries -- assuming that the pipelines are actually built.

Russia's existing pipelines run through Ukraine, a country whose
relations with Russia are even worse than Turkey's. The TurkStream
project would provide an alternate path for Russian gas to reach
Europe. The TurkStream pipelines would bring infrastructure
investment into Turkey, and would provide steady income in the form of
transit fees of Russian gas through Turkey to Europe.

However, Turkey and Russia are still deeply divided over the war in
Syria. It's hard to remember now, but before 2011, Erdogan, Putin and
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad were all allies. Then the so-called
"Arab Spring" began, and al-Assad began slaughtering peaceful
protesters, as well as women and children in marketplaces and schools.
In August 2011, when he launched a massive military assault on a
large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens
of thousands of women and children Palestinians, Turkey turned against
al-Assad. At the same time, Putin, who has plenty of his own
experience in slaughtering innocent women and children, became
al-Assad's ally and protector. Those bitter differences between
Erdogan and Putin still exist, and will not disappear as long as
al-Assad is governing Syria.

Another bitter difference arises from the fact that Turkey has invaded
northern Syria in Operation Euphrates Shield, in order to drive
fighters from both Kurdish militias and and the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Turkey has set up a "safe zone"
in northern Syria for Syrians fleeing from al-Assad's violence. This
means that Turkey's troops are expected to remain for some time.

On the Russian side, Russia is installing advanced surface-to-air
missile systems. Since the jihadist groups do not have an air force,
these missile systems are presumably meant for aircraft from Europe,
the US, and especially Turkey.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's clear where this
is going. As I've been writing for years, in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be on one side, and the West, India, Russia and Iran
will be on the other side.

People often say that two countries won't go to war because it would
be bad for business, and that's being said now about the Russia-Turkey
business deal. But that's not how the world works. If two countries
have high volumes of trade, then that just becomes another weapon of
war, as one country imposes sanctions on the other. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Time

Related Articles

• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall (07-Nov-2014)
  
  
• UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 famine in Ukraine (22-Nov-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria,
Operation Euphrates Shield, safe zone, Bashar al-Assad,
Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
World Energy Congress, Turkish Stream, TurkStream,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ukraine, Crimea, Bosporus, Dardanelles, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Oct-16 World View -- Militants linked to Myanmar's Rohingyas kill border guards in revenge attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nine Myanmar (Burma) police killed in coordinated attacks on Bangladesh border posts
  
• Fears grow of new wave of Buddhist vs Rohingya communal violence
  

****
**** Nine Myanmar (Burma) police killed in coordinated attacks on Bangladesh border posts
****


Rohingya family in Rakhine State in Myanmar (Burma)

Nine Myanmar police were killed, with four others injured and one
still missing, when some 20 militants conducted coordinated attacks on
three border posts along the Bangladesh border. The attacks took
place around 1:30 am on Sunday morning. The attackers were armed with
swords and spears, as well as conventional firearms, and they made off
with more than 10,000 rounds of ammunition and dozens of guns. Eight
militants were killed, and two others were captured alive.

The attacks took place in Rakhine State, which was the site of mass
communal ethnic violence by Buddhist Burmese against Muslims in the
Rohingya ethnic group in 2012.

No one has claimed credit for the attacks, but it's believed the
attacks were in revenge for the Buddhist attacks on Rohingya Muslims,
and for plans announced last month by the government to demolish 12
mosques and 35 madrasas (religious schools) in Rakhine State because
they had been built without permission.

Police are not making a statement on the identities of the captured
militants, but police are saying that they're neither Myanmar
nationals nor Rohingyas, but that they received help from Rohingyas.
Myanmar Times and Dhaka (Bangladesh) Tribune and Anadolu (Turkey) and The News (Pakistan)

****
**** Fears grow of new wave of Buddhist vs Rohingya communal violence
****

There was a burst of violence of Buddhists attacking Muslims in June
2012, triggered by an alleged rape of a Buddhist Rakhine girl by
Muslim Rohingyas.

In October of that year, there was a much worse wave of violence and
massacres described as a genocidal "scorched earth attack" by
Buddhists, killing dozens of Muslims, destroying 2000 homes, and
forcing thousands of refugees into squalid refugee camps which already
house hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas.

The Rohingya have a darker skin than Burmese, and they speak a Bengali
dialect. They are, for all practical purposes, a stateless ethnic
group, living on the Bangladesh-Burma border, but rejected by both
countries. In fact, Burma refuses to identify the Rohingya as a
unique ethnic group, preferring to call them Bengali, and referring to
them as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Burma is almost entirely
a Buddhist state, including the Rakhine ethnic group that make up most
of the population of Rakhine state.

Then in April 2013, 20 Muslim boys were taken from a madrassa, and
hacked to death, their bodies soaked in petrol and set alight. This
was part of a much larger wild, frenzied attack by Buddhists on
Muslims that killed dozens and reduced an entire established community
of 12,000 Muslims, including homes, shops and mosques, to ashes and
rubble. Police watched and did nothing while thousands of people --
women, monks, young people -- cheered when someone was killed.

The level of hysteria was similar to Kristallnacht, November 9, 1938,
when thousands of Germans cheered at seeing the the Nazis torch
synagogues, vandalize Jewish homes, schools and businesses and kill
Jews.

It's now feared that the Sunday's killing of the border guards
Rohingya-linked militants will trigger another wave of mass slaughter
of Muslims by Buddhists. According to Vijay Nambiar, UN envoy to
Myanmar:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"At this delicate juncture, the local communities at
> all levels must refuse to be provoked by these incidents and their
> leaders must work actively to prevent incitement of animosity or
> mutual hatred between Buddhist and Muslim
> communities."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Myanmar authorities have sent troops into Rakhine State to prevent
further violence. But the troops are also going to be hunting for any
Rohingyas who might have been involved in Sunday's attack. Thus it's
possible that the troops may not fail to prevent violence, they may
trigger new violence. UN News Center
and Radio Free Asia and Saudi Gazette

Related Articles

• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• U.N. alarmed as ethnic violence grows in western Burma (Myanmar) (27-Oct-2012)
  
  
• Burma (Myanmar) declares state of emergency over Buddhist/Muslim violence (11-Jun-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Rakhine State,
Rohingyas, Bangladesh, Vijay Nambiar, Kristallnacht

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Oct-16 World View -- Burundi's Pierre Nkurunziza follows Syria's Bashar al-Assad on path to genocide

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UN report on Burundi documents massive human rights violations
  
• Burundi lawmakers vote to leave the International Criminal Court (ICC)
  

****
**** UN report on Burundi documents massive human rights violations
****


Burning barricades in Bujumbura, Burundi's capital city, last year (UN)

A United Nations reports on Burundi has documented human rights
violations on a wide, systemic, massive scale by the government of
president Pierre Nkurunziza.

The hundreds of documented violations include torture, sexual
violence, arbitrary jailings, targeted assassinations and summary
executions. The targets of this massive violence were mostly
political opponents who opposed Nkurunziza's third term as president,
in apparent violation of the constitution, which limits presidents to
two terms. Nkurunziza claimed that his first term doesn't count
because he was appointed by the parliament, rather than being directly
elected.

Nkurunziza's decision to run for a third term in April of last year
triggered street protests by young people. Nkurunziza's security
forces confronted the peaceful protests with bullets, tear gas and
water cannon, killing about ten people in four days of violence.

Burundi's last generational crisis war was the 1994 Rwanda genocide,
which also involved Burundi, in which ethnic Hutus killed some 800,000
ethnic Tutsis in three months. Burundi is now in a generational
Awakening era, and is following the pattern where the first generation
to grow up after the war are now staging protests. Nkurunziza is an
ethnic Hutu, and his massive torture and violence is targeting Tutsis.

During America's last generational Awakening era, in the 1960s when
the first post-World War II generation came of age, there were student
protests, but the government did not resort to torture, sexual
violence, arbitrary jailings, targeted assassinations and summary
executions to counter them. So, there is a wide spectrum of behaviors
that a government can exhibit during the Awakening era that follows
the end of a generational crisis war by about 15-20 years.

Syria is also in a generational Awakening era, and Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad is on the most violent end of the spectrum. The
Syrian civil war pitted Shia/Alawites against Sunni Muslims, and
climaxed in 1982. Today, the Shia/Alawite al-Assad is targeting
millions innocent Sunni women and children with barrel bombs, chemical
weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker
bombs.

We've described a similar pattern, including Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka.
The pattern is this: There is a bloody generational crisis civil war
between two ethnic groups. The civil war is so horrific that the
survivors vow that it will never happen again. The first generation
growing up after the civil war, and with no personal memory of its
horrors, begins peacefully protesting. The country leader, often from
ethnic group that "won" the civil war, stays in power and resists
peaceful protesters with violence, using the excuse that he wants to
prevent another ethnic civil war.

Since the initial violence in Burundi began in April of last year, the
violence has continued to worse. More than 500 people have died from
extrajudicial killings, and at least 270,000 people have fled the
country to Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and DRC. United Nations Human Rights and IRIN (United Nations) and All Africa

Related Articles

• Burundi's Nkurunziza continues down Mugabe-Assad path of genocide (10-Dec-2015)
  
  
• 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war (30-Apr-2015)
  

****
**** Burundi lawmakers vote to leave the International Criminal Court (ICC)
****

The recent United Nations report accusing the Burundi regime of Pierre
Nkurunziza of massive human rights violations has infuriated regime
officials, and caused them to take several steps to isolate themselves
and protect themselves from retribution for the human rights
violations.

For a while last year, the African Union was discussing the
possibility of sending in peacekeeping troops to protect civilians
from violence, but that had to be abandoned when Nkurunziza said that
the AU peacekeepers would be treated as an invading army. (Some
analysts responded to this failure by calling it the "African
disunion." Similarly, the UN failure to stop the genocide is Syria is
sometimes called the "Disunited Nations.")

Last week, Nkurunziza barred three United Nations human rights experts
from entering the country and declared them persona non grata.
The three had been associated with the United Nations report.

Now on Wednesday, Burundi's legislature has voted to leave the
International Criminal Court (ICC). One Burundi lawmaker said that
"The ICC is a tool being used to try and change power," making the
same sort of excuse that Syria's Bashar al-Assad uses when criticized
for his war crimes. Burundi officials have expressed fear that they
will be charged with crimes against humanity. They would be the first
country ever to withdraw from the ICC.

The withdrawal from the ICC will take effect one year after the
government formally notifies the United Nation of its intention. In
the meantime, some politicians are asking the ICC to speed up the
ongoing preliminary examination and bring charges within a year.

The violence in Burundi has not yet reached the full-scale genocidal
slaughter that we're seeing from the al-Assad regime in Syria, but
it's pretty clear that the Nkurunziza regime in Burundi is headed in
the same direction. AFP and International Business Times and African Arguments

Related Arguments

• Report: Sri Lankan government repeatedly torturing and raping Tamils (14-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Rwanda's president Kagame becomes another leader refusing to leave office (19-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Burundi follows the genocidal path of Mugabe's Zimbabwe (07-Nov-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, International Criminal Court, ICC,
Rwanda, Hutus, Tutsis, Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Uganda

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Oct-16 World View -- Thailand mourns as Massachusetts-born King Bhumibol Adulyadej dies

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thailand mourns as Massachusetts-born King Bhumibol Adulyadej dies
  
• As unpopular crown prince becomes King, Thailand's stability is questioned
  
• Today's musical entertainment: The March of the Siamese Children
  

****
**** Thailand mourns as Massachusetts-born King Bhumibol Adulyadej dies
****


Thailand neighborhood with shrine to King Bhumibol (Reuters)

The 88 year old King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand has been in
deteriorating health for several years, so his death could hardly have
been completely unexpected. And yet, it's surprising that the news
stories coming out of Bangkok on Thursday after his death are of a
shocked nation in mourning.

King Bhumibol, also known as Rama IX, was born on December 5, 1927, in
Cambridge, Massachusetts. He's has been on the throne since 1946, for
70 years, and so for almost every resident of Thailand, he's been
ever-present as the King of Thailand. At his death, he was the
longest-ruling monarch in the world. That title now passes to Queen
Elizabeth of Britain.

The other surprising thing is that, even in death, it's illegal to say
almost anything critical of the royal family. This is the so-called
"lèse-majesté" law which says that it's treason to insult the king.
And people have been sent to jail for even minor criticisms.
Countries around the world are advising any of their citizens visiting
Thailand to avoid saying anything about the royal family or Thai
politics at this time.

Bhumibol is revered today because he led the country through numerous
crises, including several coups and military takeovers. Even today,
Thailand is governed by a military junta that overthrew the
democratically elected government in 2014, and Bhumibol's influence is
viewed by many as keeping the excesses of the military under control.
Still, the army junta has made draconian use of the lèse-majesté as a
tool for jailing dissidents.

Thailand's last generational crisis war was Cambodia's "Killing
Fields" war in 1975-79, in which Pol Pot's communist Khmer Rouge
government killed almost ten million people in a massive genocide.

The Cambodian war spilled over into Thailand in the form of a
communist rebellion that began in the 1960s. King Bhumibol became an
essential figure in the fight against the communists, although his
role became more controversial in the savage anti-leftist coup of
1976, in which dozens of students were brutally killed by the security
forces and royal-backed militias, and thousands forced to flee to seek
sanctuary with the Communist Party. Despite his brutality, most Thai
people look back at that time as central to upholding the authority of
the state throughout the country. The Nation (Bangkok) and BBC and Public Radio International and AFP and BT (London) and Guardian (London)

****
**** As unpopular crown prince becomes King, Thailand's stability is questioned
****

In yesterday's article,
I
discussed a pattern that many countries follow after a bloody
generational crisis civil war between two ethnic groups. The civil
war is so horrific that the survivors vow that it will never happen
again. The first generation growing up after the civil war, and with
no personal memory of its horrors, begin peacefully protesting. The
country leader, often from ethnic group that "won" the civil war,
stays in power and resists peaceful protesters with violence, using
the excuse that he wants to prevent another ethnic civil war. This
pattern is currently being followed in generational Awakening eras in
Burundi, Syria, and South Sudan -- and in Thailand.

In Thailand, the two ethnic groups are the minority light-skinned
"yellow shirt" élite, mostly of Chinese descent, known as
Thai-Chinese, versus the much larger population of dark-skinned "red
shirt" mostly indigenous ethnic Thais, known as Thai-Thais. The
indigenous Thai-Thais make up a majority of the population, and so
they have been winning elections, much to the horror of the
Thai-Chinese elite.

This exactly the kind of situation that gives rise to the Awakening
era pattern described above. In this case, the Thai army have sided
with the Thai-Chinese, and there have been three coups in the last ten
years. In 2014, the army finally gave up even trying to hold
elections, and they took control of the government, essentially giving
control to the Thai-Chinese. King Bhumibol was a powerful influence
in the last few years, keeping the excesses of the ruling junta under
control.

With Bhumibol's death, the next in line to be king is his 62-year-old
son, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn. Vajiralongkorn has been
married and divorced three times, has seven children, is considered to
be a partying playboy, is currently living with an airline stewardess,
and is deeply unpopular. He's also thought to be aligned with the
army, which will raise the anger of the large indigenous population.

With the loss of Bhumibol's calming influence, it's quite possible
that we'll see Thailand move in the direction towards genocide that
we've been seeing in Burundi and Syria, where the leader commits
genocide against the other ethnic group in order to protect the people
from another war like the last one. That hasn't started in Thailand
yet, but it could happen, as some analysts are predicting that
Thailand is headed for street protests, violent clashes, and other
signs of increasing instability. LA Times and Economist (23-Jul) and International Business Times

Related Articles

• Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum (02-Dec-2013)
  
  
• Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites (23-May-2014)
  
  
• Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes (1-Jul-2011)
  
  
• Les Miserables of Thailand at a turning point (24-May-2010)
  

****
**** Today's musical entertainment: The March of the Siamese Children
****

The 1952 Rodgers and Hammerstein Broadway musical, "The King and I",
was based on the 1946 book "Anna and the King of Siam" by Margaret
Landon. The story takes place in 1862 Bangkok Siam (Thailand). A
teacher from Britain, Anna Owen, arrives in Bangkok to tutor the
family of King Mongkut. She regrets her decision to go until she is
charmed by King Mongkut's children.

You must take three minutes off and watch "The March of the Siamese
Children" from the 1956 movie "The King and I," starring Deborah Kerr
and Yul Brynner.

YouTube - March of the Siamese Children

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Bhumibol Adulyadej, Rama IX,
Cambodia, Killing Fields, Pol Pot, Khmer Rouge,
yellow shirts, Thai-Chinese, red shirts, Thai-Thai,
Maha Vajiralongkorn, The King and I, Anna and the King of Siam

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Oct-16 World View -- Scotland considers separation from England as 'Hard Brexit' looms

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU president Donald Tusk tells Britain: 'Hard Brexit or No Brexit'
  
• Scotland considers new referendum to leave Britain and rejoin the EU
  

****
**** EU president Donald Tusk tells Britain: 'Hard Brexit or No Brexit'
****


Turnalt sheep farm at the bottom of a U-shaped glen in Argyll, Scotland

The recent meteoric fall of the British pound sterling currency is
just one of the reasons why concerns are growing about the fallout
from the results of the June 23 Brexit referendum, which mandated that
Britain leave the European Union. The pound has plunged 18% versus
the dollar to its lowest level in 31 years. At the same time, many
international businesses that previously have been using Britain as a
gateway to Europe are now moving their operations from London to
cities like Dublin, Frankfurt, Madrid and Warsaw.

The fall in the value of the pound means that the cost of imports like
South African blueberries and Italian bathroom fixtures will be
substantially higher. It could benefit exporters, who will get more
money for their goods sold abroad, but since the UK imports much more
than it exports, the economic news from Brexit suggests that there
will be a substantial fall UK living standards.

During the Brexit campaign, the politicians make all kinds of moronic
promises, such as we hear constantly from all politicians. One of
those promises was that the UK would save 50 million pounds per day
that was being sent to Brussels, and that that money could be used to
bail out the crashing National Health Service.

Now a new report indicates that instead of saving 50 million pounds
per week, the UK will be forced to pay to the EU an additional 350
million pounds per week, to cover shared EU liabilities, including
unpaid debt and pension liabilities. This is being called a "Brexit
divorce" bill.

More of the moronic promises had to do with Britain's relationship
with the EU after Brexit. The pro-Brexit campaign had promised that
the EU would be anxious to grant Britain the same access to Europe's
single market that it had now, but without the requirement that
Britain be subjected to control from Brussels. In particular, Britain
would no have to accept Christian immigrants from Poland or Muslim
immigrants from Syria and Afghanistan.

Since the vote, EU politicians said that there would no access to
Europe's single market unless Britain accepts EU's four freedoms:
freedom of movement for people, goods, capital and services. Britain
would have to accept freedom of movement of people, along with the
other three freedoms.

This was emphasized in a speech Thursday by European Commission
president Donald Tusk:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I do not need to remind you that the creation of the
> European Union was a response to a historic catastrophe. The
> source of this catastrophe was the questioning of those values and
> treating national egoisms, the use of violence and the unlimited
> right of the stronger to dictate conditions for the weaker as the
> norm.
>
> As Stefan Zweig wrote in those days: "It is an iron law that those
> who will be caught up in the great movements determining the
> course of their times always fail to recognize them in their early
> stages." ...
>
> Finally, let's move on to Brexit. ... Our task will be to protect
> the interests of the EU as a whole and the interests of each of
> the 27 member states. And also to stick unconditionally to the
> Treaty rules and fundamental values. By this I mean, [i]inter
> alia, the conditions for access to the single market with all
> four freedoms. There will be no compromises in this regard.
>
> When it comes to the essence of Brexit, it was largely defined in
> the UK during the referendum campaign. We all remember the
> promises, which cumulated in the demand to "take back control".
>
> Namely the "liberation" from European jurisdiction, a "no" to the
> freedom of movement or further contributions to the EU
> budget. This approach has definitive consequences, both for the
> position of the UK government and for the whole process of
> negotiations. Regardless of magic spells, this means a de
> facto will to radically loosen relations with the EU,
> something that goes by the name of "Hard Brexit".
>
> This scenario will in the first instance be painful for
> Britons. In fact, the words uttered by one of the leading
> campaigners for Brexit and proponents of the "cake philosophy" was
> pure illusion: that one can have the EU cake and eat it too. To
> all who believe in it, I propose a simple experiment. Buy a cake,
> eat it, and see if it is still there on the plate.
>
> The brutal truth is that Brexit will be a loss for all of
> us. There will be no cakes on the table. For anyone. There will be
> only salt and vinegar. If you ask me if there is any alternative
> to this bad scenario, I would like to tell you that yes, there is.
>
> And I think it is useless to speculate about "soft Brexit" because
> of all the reasons I've mentioned. These would be purely
> theoretical speculations. In my opinion, the only real alternative
> to a "Hard Brexit" is "no Brexit"."<END QUOTE>[/i][/indent]

Britain will remain part of the European Union for at least another 30
months. That's because Britain's new prime minister Theresa May has
not yet invoked "Article 50," and has said she will do so in March of
next year. Invoking Article 50 begins a two-year negotiation process
for Britain to leave the EU. Donald Tusk is clearly suggesting that
May not invoke Article 50 at all, a decision that would infuriate a
large percentage of British (I mean English) voters. Guardian (London) and Independent (London) and International Business Times (London)

Related Articles

• Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Bank of England uses 'sledgehammer' stimulus to fight Brexit slowdown (05-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Obamacare continues death spiral as Britain's NHS faces strike (26-Apr-2016)
  

****
**** Scotland considers new referendum to leave Britain and rejoin the EU
****

The Brexit referendum revealed that Britain's population is badly
split, but not along the usual Labor-Conservative lines. Instead, it
was split geographically (England and Wales were pro-Brexit, Scotland
and Northern Ireland were anti-Brexit), and it was split by
generation, with Millennials furious at Boomers for the vote.

On September 18, 2014, Scotland held a referendum on the question of
whether Scotland should leave the UK and become an independent
country. This would have dissolved the 1707 union between England and
Scotland that came out of the War of the Spanish Succession. Voters
rejected the referendum, with 55.3% voting no.

Many in Scotland are bitter that they are going to be forced to leave
the European Union even though they voted 62% to stay. For that
reason, Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said that she
will introduce a plan for a new Scottish independence referendum.

Scotland is one of the four nations of the United Kingdom, the other
three being England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Of the 63 million
people in the UK, England has 53 million, and Scotland has only 5
million.

Scotland is far less densely populated than England, which means that
Scotland welcomes immigrants to fill jobs, causing some Scots to call
the English "xenophobic." In her speech on Thursday, Nicola Sturgeon
accused England of being undemocratic:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They are using the result as cover for a hard Brexit
> for which they have no mandate - but which they are determined to
> impose, regardless of the ruinous consequences. Worse still, they
> intend to do all of this with no parliamentary
> authority. Virtually no scrutiny whatsoever. And to do it with
> complete disregard for Scotland's democratic voice. That is simply
> not acceptable."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Analysts consider it unlikely that Sturgeon will get her way. Polls
show that the Scottish people still do not support separation from
England. Even more important, few people believe that it would even
be possible for Scotland to be in the European Union, and not in the
United Kingdom. Reuters and International Business Times

Related Articles

• Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Scotland faces reality as independence referendum approaches (18-Feb-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, European Commission, Donald Tusk,
Theresa May, Article 50, Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Oct-16 World View -- Pakistan and India in farcical dispute over 'surgical strikes' in Kashmir

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan and India in farcical dispute over 'surgical strikes' in Kashmir
  
• Farce continues, as Pakistan involves the German embassy
  

****
**** Pakistan and India in farcical dispute over 'surgical strikes' in Kashmir
****


Indian army soldier on guard in Kashmir (Getty)

War turned into farce this past week, as Pakistan claims that India
was lying when India said that it conducted military "surgical
strikes" into Pakistani territory in Kashmir.

We recently reported a major change in policy by India's military --
that it would invade Pakistan's soil if necessary. ( "30-Sep-16 World View -- Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir"
)

The series of events was triggered by a major terrorist attack, blamed
on Pakistan, on an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir on September 18.
There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers were killed,
as were the militants. This was the worst militant terrorist attack
in Kashmir in years. India promised retaliation for the Uri attack.

The retaliation came on September 29 in the form of a series of
"targeted strikes" or "surgical strikes" by India's armed forces on
militant targets across the Line of Control (LoC) into the region of
Kashmir government by Pakistan.

The attack on Pakistani soil infuriated Pakistan's public, resulting
in calls for retaliation, even at risk of starting a war. Pakistan's
Foreign Office issued a statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We can assure India that any such aggression will not
> go unanswered or unpunished. Pakistan is ready to defend its
> people and territory from any Indian aggression or Indian
> state-sponsored terrorism on Pakistani soil. The valiant armed
> forces of Pakistan have given and will continue to give a
> befitting response to any aggression,” said the Foreign Office
> spokesman in a statement."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There is particular sensitivity in Pakistan over the question of
whether the Army is protecting Pakistani soil, after the American
commando operation that captured Osama bin Laden.

But apparently Pakistani government officials found a solution to the
problem.

They have declared that the "surgical strikes" never occurred, that
they were just a "bluff," and that they announced by India's military
in order to confuse and humiliate Pakistan by making it appear that
the country could not defend its own soil. Some of Pakistan's media
is even claiming that the Uri military base attack was a "false flag"
operation by India's military to provoke anti-Pakistan nationalism in
India.

Some Pakistani officials are calling the Indian military "delusional"
for claiming that the strikes took place. BBC (30-Sep) and
Daily Times (Pakistan) and The News (Pakistan, 30-Sep)

Related Articles

• Pakistan expected to retaliate after India invades Pakistani soil in Kashmir (30-Sep-2016)
  
  
• India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights (03-Oct-2016)
  

****
**** Farce continues, as Pakistan involves the German embassy
****

Pakistan's claims that India fabricated the story about "surgical
strikes" took an even more bizarre and farcical turn when Pakistan
media began to claim that a highly placed Indian official had
confessed that the surgical strike story was phony.

According to Pakistan media, the German foreign office in Berlin told
diplomats at the Pakistan Embassy in Berlin about a meeting that took
place between Germany diplomats and the Indian foreign secretary in
New Delhi. At the New Delhi meeting, the Indian foreign secretary
Subramaniam Jaishankar is quoted as saying:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"the Indian Foreign Secretary has categorically denied
> and said that there was no ‘surgical strike’ undertaken by Indian
> Army inside Azad Kashmir, Pakistan."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Pakistan media also quotes an unnamed high-level Indian government
official saying that it was all a plot by India's governing BJP party,
which is led by the prime minister Narendra Modi:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"With the so-called mantra of surgical strike, the BJP
> government wanted to achieve many objectives such as to prove to
> the world that Pakistan is a terror sponsoring state and India has
> the military muscle to put it under restrain, Kashmir's freedom
> movement is nothing more than Pakistan's sponsored terrorism, to
> satisfy its populations' demand of avenging Uri attack and to
> create an unrivaled political space ahead of UP's state
> elections."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, a spokesman for the German embassy in New Delhi said that no
such conversation with German diplomats ever took place. "The report
in News International Pakistan is baseless and without any truth,"
according to the German embassy.

According to the India-based South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG), the
surgical strikes have had the "unintended consequence" of stirring
debate in Pakistan itself whether Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) agency should continue protecting and sponsoring terrorists who
attack targets in India. The News (Pakistan) and Daily News and Analysis (India) and South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India)

Related Articles

• India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights (03-Oct-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, India, Kashmir,
Subramaniam Jaishankar

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100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe