10-22-2016, 01:40 PM
The bottom line is this: If Hillary wins all the states that Kerry won in 2004, plus Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado - and she has a seemingly insurmountable lead in all three - she wins. She wouldn't even need to win in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, or Nevada.
But is everyone missing something here; namely, the Bradley Effect - in this case, respondents lying to pollsters because they don't want to be seen as one of those redneck, racist "deplorables" who are backing Donald Trump? Plus Hillary is a woman, which means some voters could be hiding their Mad Men misogyny by telling pollsters they're for her when they're not.
But is everyone missing something here; namely, the Bradley Effect - in this case, respondents lying to pollsters because they don't want to be seen as one of those redneck, racist "deplorables" who are backing Donald Trump? Plus Hillary is a woman, which means some voters could be hiding their Mad Men misogyny by telling pollsters they're for her when they're not.
"These, and many other matters which might be noticed, add a volume of unofficial declarations to the mass of organic utterances that this is a Christian nation" - Justice David Brewer, Church of the Holy Trinity v. United States, 1892