10-26-2016, 03:08 PM
(10-26-2016, 01:58 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:(10-26-2016, 12:10 PM)The Wonkette Wrote:(10-25-2016, 03:41 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Here are the outcomes I foresee (based on 538 data).How would Trump winning the Presidency and the GOP retaining control of the House and Senate be a "major win" for the Democrats?
10% Democratic victory (Clinton wins and Dems win both houses of Congress)
13% Total Republican defeat (Trump wins & GOP retains both houses of Congress)
30% Total Democratic defeat (Clinton wins, but Dems fail to get Senate)
47% Tie (Clinton wins presidency and Dems win Senate)
This works out to nearly a 1 in 4 chance of a major win for Democrats (either Trump wins or Clinton gets landslide)
a 1 in 3 chance of the a near-extinction event for the Democrats
and a nearly even chance of a standoff between the parties.
Given the stubborn lack of resolution in this 4T I am betting on the third option.
Because Trump is a revolutionary, not an actual Republican. If Trump wins, he will complete the destruction of the Republican brand, especially if he gets impeached and convicted.
He's not going to win. His loss is baked in. The question is what he'll do after he loses. We'll see what kind of a man he really is. We suspect that he doesn't have a good course in him, and he's compromised. But who knows; he's a maverick and he goes all over the map.