12-11-2016, 03:18 PM
(12-10-2016, 04:49 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Lichtman among others like Michael Moore and Rob Reiner are predicting Trump will be impeached. I wouldn't think so, since the Republicans wouldn't care about such things as the law. And after impeachment, the Senate must convict him in order to be removed from office. But Lichtman points out that in their hearts of hearts, they prefer the straight down-the-line, predictable conservative Mike Pence. And many Republicans, though they supported Trump, criticized and even defected from him during the campaign. So maybe it will happen.
It would certainly be better for the Democratic candidate on my cosmic scoring system if Pence runs in 2020 instead of Trump. And the Republicans might forget about Trump's particular appeal. Trump is a winning candidate, regardless of what he does or says. And if he survives in office and runs, he might win no matter what he does in office. But Pence does not even have a positive score on my system now; only 8-9. He does not have the appeal on a gut and personality or leadership-quality level to win.
That would certainly open the door for the Democrats to win in 2020, despite the new moon indicator that favors the incumbent to win the popular vote that year. An administration that has its president removed from office is not in a good position to win re-election, as the election of 1976 showed; Nixon would have been removed from office if he had not resigned. And what if Pence pardons Trump too? Gerald Ford tried that, and lost. It would likely be difficult too for an administration that suffered an impeachment and removal of its president to get many keys turned in its favor in Lichtman's system. Even Bill Clinton, with all his advantages, could not swing it for Al Gore after a term of constant distraction including an impeachment trial.
The ultimate impeachment is a military coup. Although one can get away with a chilly relationship with the senior officers and the intelligence agencies, one cannot get away with a hostile relationship. This is not simply a left-right issue; President Obama has consistently shown respect for the military and the CIA. How else could he get Osama bin Laden whacked? One need not be a chest-pounding ultra-nationalist to be an effective President in a military situation.
The worst thing that Donald Trump could do would be to either get the Armed Forces involved in persecuting or dispatching dissidents, to commit war crimes, or to start a war of aggression. The Armed Services still remember how badly wars went in Iraq and Afghanistan and probably do not want something bigger and worse -- like trying to impose a One China policy unilaterally using Taiwan as a base. At that I do not expect Taiwan to be a cat's paw for such madness. Most likely I would expect China to cut a deal with Taiwan -- scrap your shady independence but keep your democracy and free-enterprise system. Then there are Iran and Venezuela, both of which have prosperous state oil companies that Big Oil might want to get hold of in the ultimate 'hostile takeover'.
But this goes beyond Lichtman's system. Had Gary Johnson gotten more votes, presumably from potential Trump voters, then Hillary Clinton would have won the election with a critical key (a significant third-party nominee) going against her even if that key had helped her.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.