Things Trump Is Doing Right

[David Horn]

(04-17-2017, 12:48 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-17-2017, 12:01 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: In a way, I want to see an intercept.

The DPRK are where the Russians and Chinese outsource their anti social behavior to.

We can use a determined response to that bad behavior to send a message to the sponsoring states. If we can intercept the DPRK's warheads we can also intercept China's and Russia's.

The US can put Aegis cruisers in range of North Korea's launching zones, and make an intercept while the ICBM is still in boost phase.  North Korea can also only launch a limited number of CONUS targets that are in range, and have a limited number of missiles.  North Korea hasn't achieved MAD yet.

China and Russia can launch from well inland, from well away from the coast, and can thus avoid the relatively easy boost phase Aegis intercepts.  They have the range to hit all of CONUS, and can launch a large enough volley to saturate our defense.  We've got the technology for a Reaganesque Star Wars system, but have not spent enough money on it to void the MAD philosophy.  

The way the budget is heading, the priority seems to be projecting conventional force anywhere in the world rather than to break the MAD stalemate.  We spend a ton on the logistics to land and supply a force anywhere with a sea coast.  I've heard no suggestion that said priority should change.  Meanwhile, the Republican low taxes philosophy and Democratic domestic issues first philosophy would likely make both projecting conventional forces and defending nuclear economically infeasible.

FWIW, I think the MOAB we just used in Afghanistan was intended as a warning to the DPRK that their massive artillery installations are not all that reliable given sufficient motivation to take them out.  Of course, we won't, but it may be possible to save most of South Korea if push come to shove.

In the end, the Chinese need to decide just how much tension they can tolerate.  They are the DPRK's bread basket and oil supplier.  Turning off the tap is dangerous, but may seem less dangerous than a huge military escalation just next door. 

Note: there are bad options and worse ones.  Trump lacks finesse, so assume this gets handled by others.  If not, expect the worst.