Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Apr-17 World View -- European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations
  
• Sharp disagreements ahead over the 60 billion euro Brexit 'divorce settlement'
  
• Corrections to yesterday's article on Macedonia
  

****
**** European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations
****


EU Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker (left) and EU Council President Donald Tusk in Brussels on Saturday (Getty)

The leaders of the EU-27, the 27 member nations of the European Union
not including Britain, laid out their negotiating demands for the
United Kingdom at a meeting in Brussels on Saturday.

The UK passed the Brexit referendum, calling for Britain to leave the
European Union, on June 23 of last year. On March 29 of this year,
Britain's prime minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon
Treaty, making the Brexit process irreversible, and triggering a
two-year period of negotiations before the exit is final. Theresa May
has called for new elections on June 8, and so serious negotiations
are expected to begin at that time.

Britain would like to immediately start negotiating a trade deal, but
the EU leaders on Saturday said that trade could not be discussed at
all until the terms of the "divorce" had been resolved. In
particular, the EU-27 is demanding that three questions be resolved
first:

• The highest priority issue would be "citizens' rights." This
  refers to UK citizens living in the EU-27, and EU-27 citizens living
  in the UK. There are 5.4 million of these, and their lives have been
  thrown into chaos by the Brexit referendum, since they have no idea
  whether they'll continue to be living and working as they have been.
  The issues involve things like pensions, social security, work
  benefits, medical care, and so forth.
  
  
• The next highest priority is the "divorce bill." The EU wants to
  charge Britain about €60 billion in payments already committed to
  farmers, scientists, and a variety of programs.
  
  
• The third divorce issue is the land border between Northern
  Ireland, which is part of Britain, and the Republic of Ireland, which
  is an independent country that will remain part of the European Union.
  The EU-27 is requiring that all parts of the "Good Friday Agreement"
  be maintained, which means that there should be free flow of people
  and goods across the border.

The purpose of Saturday's meeting in Brussels was to get approval from
the 27 remaining countries of the EU on the negotiation guidelines.
EU officials bragged that the negotiation guidelines were approved
unanimously within four minutes.

The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Jüncker, warned
Britain that many British politicians were vastly overestimating the
benefits that they'll gain from Brexit, and vastly underestimating the
difficulties that they'll have in the Brexit negotiations:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We have already prepared a text that could be adopted
> immediately if our British friends would be willing to sign it,
> but that probably won’t happen. I have the impression sometimes
> that our British friends, not all of them, do underestimate the
> technical difficulties we have to face. ... Privately everything
> went well but we have a problem, the British want to leave the EU
> and it's not feasible that it can be done just like that.
>
> The single question of citizens' rights is in fact a cortège of 25
> questions that have to be solved.
>
> I would like to state very clearly that we need real guarantees
> for our people who live, work and study in the UK and the same
> goes for the Brits. The commission has prepared a full list of the
> rights and benefits that we want to guarantee for those affected
> by Brexit. To achieve sufficient progress we need a serious
> British response."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As an aside, I chuckled at Jüncker's use of the word "cortège."
Jüncker was undoubtedly referring to some (unpublished) list of 25
questions, but the word "cortège" is a French word usually used in the
context of a funeral procession, which perhaps Jüncker was afraid was
happening.

According to the guidelines, negotiations on trade and other issues
cannot begin until the three issues listed above have been resolved.
BBC and
Daily Mail (London) and EU Negotiation Guidelines

Related Articles

• Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball (31-Mar-2017)
  

****
**** Sharp disagreements ahead over the 60 billion euro Brexit 'divorce settlement'
****

Britain's prime minister Theresa May rejected some of the hardline
demands that were put forth at Saturday's meeting in Brussels. She
said that she was sticking to her own demands outlined in a speech
earlier this year which included tariff-free trade, ending the
jurisdiction of European courts and stopping free movement of
migrants.

According to May, "What matters sitting around that table is a strong
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, with a strong mandate from the
people of the United Kingdom which will strengthen our negotiating
hand to ensure we get that possible deal."

One of the most difficult demands will be the Brexit "divorce
settlement," the demand that Britain commit to pay 50-60 billion euros
to the EU to cover EU spending up until 2020 when the current budget
runs out. According to the negotiating guidelines:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"10. A single financial settlement should ensure that
> the Union and the United Kingdom both respect the obligations
> undertaken before the date of withdrawal. The settlement should
> cover all legal and budgetary commitments as well as liabilities,
> including contingent liabilities."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The settlement includes such things as pension payments to British
nationals working for EU employers, and spending commitments for
contributions to EU projects and social programs, based on past
agreements. It also includes guarantees on loans such as the bailout
of Ireland, and spending on infrastructure and structural funds agreed
to but still to be financed.

An additional demand is that all amounts must be paid in euros. This
is a particularly painful demand, because the British pound currency
has lost almost 10% in value since the Brexit referendum passed last
year. Telegraph (London) and Daily Mail (London) and Politico (EU)

****
**** Corrections to yesterday's article on Macedonia
****

Early versions of yesterday's article on Macedonia contained several
errors. They've been corrected in the final version.
I apologize for the errors.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, European Union, Brexit,
Jean-Claude Jüncker, Donald Tusk, Theresa May

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John J. Xenakis
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