Presidential election, 2016

[pbrower2a]

Percentages taken from Leip's Atlas of US Presidential Elections

Something to remember:

Mondale 1984    40.56
Carter 1980 41.01  
McGovern 1972  37.52
Goldwater 1964 38.47
Stevenson 1956 41.97
Landon 1936  36.54
Hoover 1932 39.65

These are the some of the weakest performances in Presidential campaigns in two-way races in the last 90 years. (Really, Carter barely fits this category because John Anderson got 6.61% of the popular vote). These involve two failed Presidencies and wildly-successful bids for re-election by an incumbent.  

We should remember that any poll that shows Donald Trump at 37% or so puts him at a historic low for a Presidential nominee, near the absolute floor for the Presidency in one of the two-way races.

But there is no incumbent running. Fine. Should the 2016 election remain a two-way race with no significant third-party contender, then this suggests the bare minimum for Donald Trump:

GHW Bush 53.37  Dukakis 45.65

....Anyone who believes that Donald Trump will get less than 45% of the vote in a two-way race fails to recognize the optimum in an open-seat election when the incumbent is seen as highly successful but that the usual partisan fatigue is setting in.  Is Barack Obama as effective a President as Ronald Reagan was? Probably not.

...I posted the preceding material in a forum in Leip's Election Atlas. People there generally dislike discussions of the generational cycle.  Here, such is no problem. I see Barack Obama as a stereotypical "mature Reactive" for which
predecessors include George Washington, John Adams, Grover Cleveland, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower. The mature Reactives in this group were typically in their 60s or near 60 as President. They respected precedent and formality more than they trusted the fickleness of public opinion. They showed little anger and never used the Presidency to seek revenge. This is a good group of Presidents, with Cleveland at worst mediocre (but arguably the best of an unimpressive lot between Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt) and Washington taking the role of Father of his Country for defining what the President and the Presidency are.

Barack Obama fits the pattern very well. If he isn't 60+, then he certainly acts like it without being in the generation now containing all sexagenarians (Boomers). He is no Boomer. He is probably above-average, probably about the 10th-best President that we ever had. He's more like Eisenhower than like Kennedy, though.

If the Republicans had a nominee with the temperament of JFK, then they would have a very good chance of winning in 2016.  You tell me -- do the Republicans have anyone in any way analogous to JFK? No, "city councilman in Dubuque, Iowa" does not count.

I am tempted to believe that this Presidential race is going to be much closer than most of us have recently thought. After eight years of Dwight Eisenhower, Americans were ready for someone much more dynamic. We need remember that Dwight Eisenhower's VP came close to winning the Presidential election in 1960.

So what is relevant this time?

1. The 1960 election involved one of the most telegenic nominees ever (John Kennedy) against one of the most physically ugly men to have ever become President -- Richard M. Nixon.  I am tempted to believe that Nixon lost because he was ugly.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton aren't that far apart.

2. Republican governors aren't doing well, on the whole, in swing states.

APPROVAL OF INCUMBENT GOVERNORS




A positive approval rating under 45% is treated as a tie.

blue -- Republican incumbent with positive or neutral approval
20% --  tie (less than 1%) or positive approval under 45%
40% --  approval 45 - 49%
50%  -- approval 50 - 54%
60%  -- approval 55 - 59%
80% -- approval over 60%

green --  Republican incumbent with negative approval

20% --  approval 45 - 49%
40%  -- approval 40 - 44%
50%  -- approval 35 - 39%
80% --  approval under 35%


red --Democratic incumbent with positive or neutral approval
20% --  tie (less than 1%) or positive approval under 45%
40% --  approval 45 - 49%
50%  -- approval 50 - 54%
60%  -- approval 55 - 59%
80% -- approval over 60%

orange --  Democratic incumbent with negative approval

20% --  approval 45 - 49%
40%  -- approval 40 - 44%
50%  -- approval 35 - 39%
80% --  approval under 35%

No governor, governor in transition,  or non-partisan governor -- white.

Positive approval under 45% -- (now treated as if a tie).

The newest poll takes precedence, but no internal polls or polls commissioned by a partisan entity, trade group, or union.
 
 * -- appointed Governor.

This map may be about two months old, as it has been updated very little. But approval of incumbent governors tends to be remarkably stable barring a breaking scandal.  A popular Governor of the same party as the nominee can help that nominee in a swing state. Donald Trump can be thankful that John Kasich is popular in Ohio, and Hillary Clinton can be thankful that the Governor of Virginia is in high regard. Obviously Republican governors of Maryland and Massachusetts are not going to help Donald Trump win either state, and the new Democratic Governor (if popular -- I have no polls) of Louisiana will be of no help to Hillary Clinton in Louisiana.

Any incumbent with an approval of 45% or more at this stage will be no drag upon a Presidential nominee of his Party in a swing state. Hillary Clinton will do fine in Pennsylvania, a state near swing status this year.

So here's how I see the incumbent Governors in swing states help or hurt Trump and Clinton.

States that went for or against President Obama by less than 5% of his national margin (2.5%) in 2012 are:

Wisconsin (+6.7)... unpopular Republican governor hurts Trump
Nevada (+6.6)... no polling, so I can really say nothing
New Hampshire (+5.9%)... popular Democratic governor running for a Senate seat, so probably neutral
Iowa (+5.7)... unpopular Republican governor hurts Trump.
Pennsylvania (+5.1)... popular Democratic governor helps Clinton
Colorado (+4.7)... popular Democratic governor helps Clinton
Virginia (+3.0)... popular Democratic governor helps Clinton

national average Obama 2.5 over Romney in 2012

Ohio (+1.9)... popular Republican governor helps Trump
Florida (+0.6)... unpopular Republican governor hurts Trump
North Carolina (-2.2)... unpopular Republican governor hurts Trump

There are only ten such states. Minnesota is just beyond the threshold for being a swing state based on the 2012 vote, and there the popular Democratic governor would be of help in a pinch -- but if Minnesota is really close this year, then Donald Trump is winning the Presidency. The second-closest loss for Obama in 2012, went for Romney by 8%. Should Georgia be in play, then Hillary Clinton is winning Virginia, North Carolina, and the election.

On the criterion of which states have governors that can help Donald Trump as failing Democrats or successful Republicans -- he might pick up Ohio but still lose Florida... and North Carolina.

3. President Obama isn't a drag on the Democratic Party. A national poll by PPP has his approval rating at 49%, which is good enough to win re-election if he were eligible to run and chose to run for re-election.