04-30-2018, 10:05 PM
*** 1-May-18 World View -- Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan
****
![[Image: g180430b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180430b.jpg)
Security forces run from the second coordinated suicide attack bombing in Kabul on Monday (AP)
Two coordinated suicide bombings on Monday in Kabul, the capital city
of Afghanistan, killed at least 26 people, including nine journalists,
who were apparently targeted. The first suicide bomber was on a
motorbike and exploded his device near Afghan intelligence
headquarters in Kabul. After the initial suicide bombings,
journalists arrived to report on it, and were targeted by a second
suicide bomber.
There were other terror attacks in cities across Afghanistan on
Monday, including a car bombing in Kandahar province that killed eight
Romanian soldiers, as well as multiple Afghan police officers and
civilians.
Last Sunday, a massive terror attack in Kabul killed 60 people as they waited in a voter registration center,
in a region of the city inhabited by members of the mainly
Shia ethnic Hazara community, whom the Taliban has frequently
targeted. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Reuters and Business Insider
****
**** The Taliban announces the Spring fighting season, codename Al Khandaq
****
This new series of attacks just a few days after the Taliban announced
its 2018 fighting season, codenamed "Al Khandaq." According to the
Taliban announcement:
<QUOTE>"The planning and strategy of the Al Khandaq Jihadi
operations are organized by the expert and proficient skilled
cadre of the Military Commission of the Islamic Emirate which is
based on guerilla, offensive, infiltrated and various other new
and intricate tactics against the new war strategy of the enemy,
mainly focusing on crushing, killing and capturing American
invaders and their supporters. ...
Besides sustaining the ongoing illegitimate occupation, the newly
adopted war strategy of Trump has been ruthlessly implemented in
the villages and rural areas against our oppressed Afghan people
for the past nine months. Thousands of additional foreign forces
are being deployed inside Afghanistan and they are supplied with
new devastating weapons and vast military
authorities."<END QUOTE>
The Taliban statement dismissed efforts at bringing about peace
negotiations as "deceptive efforts" launched by the "ineffectual and
corrupt officials of the puppet regime inside and outside the country
are nothing but a conspiracy orchestrated by the foreign occupiers for
enervating." Daily Times (Pakistan)
****
**** Analysts guess at why Afghanistan's security situation keeps deteriorating
****
Every time I read an article by an analyst or journalist trying
to explain why the security situation in Afghanistan has been
deteriorating for years, it's pretty clear that they don't
even know the most basic facts about the country. I've been
explaining for years why any sort of "victory" in Afghanistan
is impossible, and the reasons I gave years ago are still true
today. I'll repeat them below, but first, let's take a look
at some of the reasons that the media are providing.
Axios writer Michael Kugelman gives three reasons that don't even
make as much sense as a Donald Duck cartoon. Here are his
reasons:
Kugelman's reasons were completely empty-headed, but a more
intelligent attempt was made by Allison Jackson, AFP's Kabul Bureau
chief. Jackson gave her reasons in an interview on Monday on RFI.
Jackson was asked whether the security situation has deteriorated (my
transcription):
<QUOTE>"Absolutely. I don't know anyone who would say
otherwise. I've only been here 8 months, but everyone I speak to
says since 2014 the security situation has deteriorated
significantly, and now it's the worst it's ever been, and there
are a number of reasons for that.
Nato ended its combat mission at the end of 2014. Since then, the
Taliban has been resurgent, and is taking back a lot of the
territory that they had lost while the Nato combat troops were on
the ground, and the US presence is obviously much more diminished
in comparison to what it was pre-2014.
And Islamic State would have been merged in Afghanistan in 2014
2015, and they claimed their first major attack in 2016, in the
summer of 2016, with an attack on Shias, and since then have
launched more than a dozen attacks in Kabul alone.
They've come under significant pressure. The Taliban has also
come under significant pressure, following Donald Trump's new
strategy in August, and that announcement basically gave the US
air force and special forces much more leeway to go after the
Taliban, IS, other militant groups. I think what these sorts of
attacks show is that even in the heart of Kabul, ordinary Afghans
are extremely vulnerable, the government is not able to secure the
capital city. Resolute Support, which is the name of Nato's
mission here, has said that protecting Kabul is a priority, but
they've also admitted that it's very difficult to protect a city
that is so porous as Kabul."<END QUOTE>
Jackson's entire explanation is that the security situation has
worsened because of the withdrawal of most Nato forces in 2014. That
makes sense, but it's not particularly useful because it doesn't
explain why Nato forces are needed in the first place. There are
dozens of countries where no Nato troops aren't deployed. Why does
Afghanistan have terror attacks when those countries don't?
Kugelman's office is in Washington DC, far from Afghanistan,
so there's no reason to expect him to know anything, unless
he makes a special effort, which apparently he hasn't.
But Jackson has been Kabul bureau chief for eight months. During
that eight months, she might have learned something about the
shifting ethnic and generational pressures that are bringing
about these Taliban terror attacks.
As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis
war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which
mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later
formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later,
Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young
generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their
parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern
Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.
But you don't have to know anything about generational history
to understand what's going on. You just have to understand
that there was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96,
pitting the Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that
the Taliban are Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking
for revenge for atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that
Nato troops are completely irrelevant.
Those are simple facts that Amy Jackson might have learned during her
eight months in Kabul, or that even Michael Kugelman might have
learned, even though he's in Washington. Then they could give more
intelligent analyses.
However, as I've written in the past, I believe that this dynamic is
understood by the Nato military, and by the US administration, and
that they understand that this war cannot be won, but they have a
larger purpose in mind. As war with China and Pakistan approaches,
president Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan,
and to continue to maintain several American military bases in
Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar
International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war
with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan
is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. Axios and ABC News
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Taliban,
Spring fighting season, Al Khandaq,
Axios, Michael Kugelman, Amy Jackson,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Nato, Resolute Support, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan
- The Taliban announces the Spring fighting season, codename Al Khandaq
- Analysts guess at why Afghanistan's security situation keeps deteriorating
****
**** Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan
****
Security forces run from the second coordinated suicide attack bombing in Kabul on Monday (AP)
Two coordinated suicide bombings on Monday in Kabul, the capital city
of Afghanistan, killed at least 26 people, including nine journalists,
who were apparently targeted. The first suicide bomber was on a
motorbike and exploded his device near Afghan intelligence
headquarters in Kabul. After the initial suicide bombings,
journalists arrived to report on it, and were targeted by a second
suicide bomber.
There were other terror attacks in cities across Afghanistan on
Monday, including a car bombing in Kandahar province that killed eight
Romanian soldiers, as well as multiple Afghan police officers and
civilians.
Last Sunday, a massive terror attack in Kabul killed 60 people as they waited in a voter registration center,
in a region of the city inhabited by members of the mainly
Shia ethnic Hazara community, whom the Taliban has frequently
targeted. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Reuters and Business Insider
****
**** The Taliban announces the Spring fighting season, codename Al Khandaq
****
This new series of attacks just a few days after the Taliban announced
its 2018 fighting season, codenamed "Al Khandaq." According to the
Taliban announcement:
<QUOTE>"The planning and strategy of the Al Khandaq Jihadi
operations are organized by the expert and proficient skilled
cadre of the Military Commission of the Islamic Emirate which is
based on guerilla, offensive, infiltrated and various other new
and intricate tactics against the new war strategy of the enemy,
mainly focusing on crushing, killing and capturing American
invaders and their supporters. ...
Besides sustaining the ongoing illegitimate occupation, the newly
adopted war strategy of Trump has been ruthlessly implemented in
the villages and rural areas against our oppressed Afghan people
for the past nine months. Thousands of additional foreign forces
are being deployed inside Afghanistan and they are supplied with
new devastating weapons and vast military
authorities."<END QUOTE>
The Taliban statement dismissed efforts at bringing about peace
negotiations as "deceptive efforts" launched by the "ineffectual and
corrupt officials of the puppet regime inside and outside the country
are nothing but a conspiracy orchestrated by the foreign occupiers for
enervating." Daily Times (Pakistan)
****
**** Analysts guess at why Afghanistan's security situation keeps deteriorating
****
Every time I read an article by an analyst or journalist trying
to explain why the security situation in Afghanistan has been
deteriorating for years, it's pretty clear that they don't
even know the most basic facts about the country. I've been
explaining for years why any sort of "victory" in Afghanistan
is impossible, and the reasons I gave years ago are still true
today. I'll repeat them below, but first, let's take a look
at some of the reasons that the media are providing.
Axios writer Michael Kugelman gives three reasons that don't even
make as much sense as a Donald Duck cartoon. Here are his
reasons:
- Intensified U.S. military pressure. According to Klugman,
increased pressure by the US military is driving the Taliban
to terror attacks in the cities. So is he saying that if there
were les US military pressure, then there would be fewer terror
attacks? This reasoning is almost a joke, especially since
the security situation has been deteriorating rapidly since
the withdrawal of U.S. troops began in 2014.
- The Taliban is a national insurgency determined to weaken if not
overthrow the Afghan state. That's an easy, fatuous reason that's
been true for 15 years, but it doesn't explain what's different
now.
- The Taliban and ISIS are staging terror attacks because they're
easy to pull off. By this vacuous reasoning, there should be terror
attacks in almost every country in the world.
Kugelman's reasons were completely empty-headed, but a more
intelligent attempt was made by Allison Jackson, AFP's Kabul Bureau
chief. Jackson gave her reasons in an interview on Monday on RFI.
Jackson was asked whether the security situation has deteriorated (my
transcription):
<QUOTE>"Absolutely. I don't know anyone who would say
otherwise. I've only been here 8 months, but everyone I speak to
says since 2014 the security situation has deteriorated
significantly, and now it's the worst it's ever been, and there
are a number of reasons for that.
Nato ended its combat mission at the end of 2014. Since then, the
Taliban has been resurgent, and is taking back a lot of the
territory that they had lost while the Nato combat troops were on
the ground, and the US presence is obviously much more diminished
in comparison to what it was pre-2014.
And Islamic State would have been merged in Afghanistan in 2014
2015, and they claimed their first major attack in 2016, in the
summer of 2016, with an attack on Shias, and since then have
launched more than a dozen attacks in Kabul alone.
They've come under significant pressure. The Taliban has also
come under significant pressure, following Donald Trump's new
strategy in August, and that announcement basically gave the US
air force and special forces much more leeway to go after the
Taliban, IS, other militant groups. I think what these sorts of
attacks show is that even in the heart of Kabul, ordinary Afghans
are extremely vulnerable, the government is not able to secure the
capital city. Resolute Support, which is the name of Nato's
mission here, has said that protecting Kabul is a priority, but
they've also admitted that it's very difficult to protect a city
that is so porous as Kabul."<END QUOTE>
Jackson's entire explanation is that the security situation has
worsened because of the withdrawal of most Nato forces in 2014. That
makes sense, but it's not particularly useful because it doesn't
explain why Nato forces are needed in the first place. There are
dozens of countries where no Nato troops aren't deployed. Why does
Afghanistan have terror attacks when those countries don't?
Kugelman's office is in Washington DC, far from Afghanistan,
so there's no reason to expect him to know anything, unless
he makes a special effort, which apparently he hasn't.
But Jackson has been Kabul bureau chief for eight months. During
that eight months, she might have learned something about the
shifting ethnic and generational pressures that are bringing
about these Taliban terror attacks.
As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis
war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which
mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later
formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later,
Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young
generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their
parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern
Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.
But you don't have to know anything about generational history
to understand what's going on. You just have to understand
that there was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96,
pitting the Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that
the Taliban are Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking
for revenge for atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that
Nato troops are completely irrelevant.
Those are simple facts that Amy Jackson might have learned during her
eight months in Kabul, or that even Michael Kugelman might have
learned, even though he's in Washington. Then they could give more
intelligent analyses.
However, as I've written in the past, I believe that this dynamic is
understood by the Nato military, and by the US administration, and
that they understand that this war cannot be won, but they have a
larger purpose in mind. As war with China and Pakistan approaches,
president Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan,
and to continue to maintain several American military bases in
Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar
International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war
with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan
is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. Axios and ABC News
Related Articles
- ISIS-K suicide bomber kills over 50 in Kabul, Afghanistan, registering to vote (23-Apr-2018)
- New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan (01-Feb-2018)
- New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 (28-Jan-2018)
- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
- Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
- Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Taliban,
Spring fighting season, Al Khandaq,
Axios, Michael Kugelman, Amy Jackson,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Nato, Resolute Support, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
