04-14-2019, 10:14 AM
Let's agree on a few things that make polling particularly hard at the moment:
So what, if anything, does this portend? It's too early to tell, but the Trump will win again crowd may wish to take a breath.
- The electorate is divided in more ways than pro-Trump and anti-Trump. The true believers in both the pro and anti camps are not as great in number as the pro and anti polling numbers suggest. I suspect that a large percentage of the respondents are just angry, and support or oppose Trump as a way to make a point -- but little else.
- The center of the electorate hates Trump's persona but is willing to overlook that if it benefits them personally. If the economy goes South or healthcare is dismantled, all bets are off.
- There will be an ever increasing level of Trump fatigue, because that effect is already occurring. He's just more than most people can bear over the long haul, and that will drive down his fringe support. They may not support the Dems, but they may very well stay home.
So what, if anything, does this portend? It's too early to tell, but the Trump will win again crowd may wish to take a breath.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.